1 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg weekly 2 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: market podcast. I'm Sara Pants, a reporter on the Cross 3 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: Asset team, and I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor on 4 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: the Markets team. This week on the show, we've gotten 5 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: some of the first real reads into the effect of 6 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: the coronavirus on the economy. It's disheartening to say, but 7 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 1: a record six point six million people filed for unemployment 8 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: insurance in the last week, a record by far. While 9 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: markets remain volatile, resiliency has remained, and that too as 10 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: oil prices fell to the lowest since two thousand and one. 11 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 1: You know, and Sarah, I feel like we jinxed it 12 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: by having the Craziest Thing we Saw in Markets on 13 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: this show, because now all of a sudden, we're almost 14 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: year into the show, and I feel like everything in 15 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: markets is crazy. It's it's all. We should have just 16 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: named the podcast the Craziest Things we Saw in Markets 17 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: this week, and then it could just be a general 18 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: market recap. What do you think maybe we should have 19 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 1: Although we also did get someone we officially launched the 20 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: podcast with the name What Goes Up? They said, you know, 21 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 1: you're just waiting for what goes down to happen to then, yeah, 22 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 1: that might that might have by the jinxta too, Sarah, 23 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 1: before we start talking about the markets and get into 24 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 1: and introduced our guests, I'm curious what life is like 25 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 1: for you. You've been quarantined there in Manhattan for the 26 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 1: duration of this virus. I I stopped going into New 27 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: York City round March twelve. I never thought i'd i'd 28 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 1: ever missed that daily commute from New Jersey, but sure enough, Uh, strangely, 29 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: I'm beginning to miss it. But I'm wondering. You know, 30 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: we have listeners around the world on this podcast. I'm 31 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: sure a lot of people are as curious as I 32 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: am as far as what's just what's life like in 33 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: Manhattan right now? In this situation. You know, it's really strange, 34 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: especially for the city, and it's it's really quiet, which 35 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 1: when you think of Manhattan obvious so you don't think quiet. 36 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: But if I were to go to my window right 37 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: now and just look outside, I likely wouldn't see a 38 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: single soul. I mean, I try to get outside every 39 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: now and then to go on walks, but keep my distance. 40 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: But you can pretty much walk in the middle of 41 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: the street. There's hardly any cars around, um, which is 42 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: so strange to say. Usually you would see taxis, there'll 43 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: be plenty of traffic. Now you're walking in the middle 44 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: of the street to keep your six feet distance. But yeah, 45 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: it's just there's an eerie feel. Especially it rained a 46 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: lot this week, so it was particularly eerie because there 47 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: was no one around and it was just gray and rainy. Um. 48 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,920 Speaker 1: But it's definitely strange. It doesn't it doesn't feel like 49 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: the city. It's such a weird phenomenon. You have these 50 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 1: markets in just this spasm of turmoil, and your New 51 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: York City is quieter than it's ever been. It's just 52 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 1: a very surreal experience all around. It's it's weird still 53 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 1: being here. I can promise you that. Well, let's get 54 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: right to the markets then, and UM happy to introduce 55 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,399 Speaker 1: a new guest, first time on the show. Her name 56 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 1: is Diane Jaffee. She is a senior portfolio manager at TCW. Diane, 57 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 1: welcome to the show. Thank you, grilled to be here. 58 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: And I don't know where you're quarantining. Maybe you're in 59 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: the city too or not anymore. I was there with 60 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: Sarah for a while, but now we're in Thermon, Vermont. 61 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: I think Vermont would be one of my top choices 62 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: to uh to quarantine and get some fresh air and 63 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: uh blue skies and everything. So good wise choice, social 64 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: distance all the time in vermach nothing's changed. It comes natural, 65 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: especially if you tell them you're from New Jersey. They 66 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: keep their distance. I've I've learned in But Diane, let's 67 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: talk about these crazy markets. Because I know you're a 68 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 1: value focused investor. You your senior portfolio manager at tc W. 69 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: You manage several funds or at least on the management 70 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: committee of several um But I I gotta say I've 71 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: been doing this for many years now. I won't tell 72 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: everyone how many. I like to keep the illusion that 73 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: I'm a young, hip her. But I don't think I've 74 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: ever seen anything like this as far as just the 75 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: complete unknowns about what the earnings outlook is, what the 76 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: GDP outlook is? UH. And I know you focus a 77 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 1: lot on dividends and dividend growth. What the you know 78 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: where the stable dividends are going to come from? Who's 79 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: going to cut their dividends? So I guess you know, 80 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: to make a long question very short, like how do 81 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: you do your job in this environment when there's so 82 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: many unknowns. Well, Luckily, I have a great team of 83 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: analysts who work with me. We have the largest internal 84 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: research team on the equity side at TCW, with six 85 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: dedicated analysts. And I'm proud to say that our strategies 86 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: are going to hit their twenty five year GIFTS compliant 87 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 1: track record this month of April. So um that you know. 88 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: So we've been through a lot of cycles together. We've 89 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: worked together for eight team years on average. But you're right, 90 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: this is different. This is a pandemic and um, and 91 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: you can get bits and pieces of inform Asian if 92 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 1: you go to Stars back in two thousand and three 93 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: or a bowla and two thousand and eighteen. But um, 94 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: really we haven't seen anything like this for over a 95 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 1: hundred years back to night. It really is unbelievable. And 96 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 1: you shared a timeline with us in the notes, and 97 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 1: I thought it was really great. It's a stylized timeline, 98 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: and essentially what you did was you lay out the 99 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 1: months and you lay out at different areas of where 100 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: we have passed and what we are looking forward to, 101 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: so as what we have passed or in the midst 102 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,559 Speaker 1: of some are consumer panic and social distancing, US cases, Peak, 103 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: policymakers Act, which have all happened. Now where you say 104 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: the next test of the market is that's earnings downgrades 105 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 1: because even when we look at bottoms up analysts estimates, 106 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: they haven't really haven't been able to keep up. Right now, 107 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: they're only estimating pretty much a modest decline in earnings 108 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: for the year. I mean, what are you guys expecting 109 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: once we potentially do see the is flowing in or 110 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: once earning season does start in a few weeks, what 111 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: do you expect and how do you expect the market 112 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 1: to take that? Yeah, I think there will definitely be 113 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: a real test of the market bottom we saw in 114 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: the last week of March. I'd like to source a 115 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 1: fund Strett. You know, they provided that graphic, which is 116 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 1: great and I think it does help give a realistic 117 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: picture within days or weeks of what we can anticipate. 118 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 1: But earning season, we'll start with the big banks. They're 119 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: on the front lines of this and um and it 120 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 1: gives me a lot of comfort just to know that 121 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:39,359 Speaker 1: this economic backbone of the economy is really in a 122 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: good place right now, you know, much different than it 123 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: was in two thousand and eight, we've been stress tests, 124 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: we've been steacard, we've been defast and so they're they're 125 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 1: really going to be the front lines here in terms 126 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: of the conduit for the Treasury and the Fed to 127 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: reach out to businesses, to reach out to lenders, to 128 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: reach out to borrowers, um, and so it will be 129 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: very telling what the banks say. Where do dividends and 130 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 1: by backs typically fit into your investment process? Goldman Sacks 131 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: had an analysis out saying that already this year we've 132 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 1: seen roughly a quarter of the amount of by bucks 133 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: we saw last year already pulled by companies. I mean, 134 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: is this disheartening to you, guys, or do you feel 135 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: as though that's okay? Because companies have to allocate cash 136 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: where necessary at this point in time, or maybe keep 137 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: more cash on their balance sheets. I think, um that 138 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of dividends because it not only 139 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: says that the there's good stewardship by the management teams 140 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: of those companies saying, Okay, we've already fulfilled what we 141 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: need to do for capex or you growth opportunities, and 142 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: so we're returning cash to our shareholders in the form 143 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: of dividends, and no entity likes to cut or suspend dividends, 144 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: so they have to think long and hard. In fact, 145 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: said the other day that you know, even before the coronavirus, 146 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: they were contemplating any kind of black swan event to 147 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: make sure that those dividends were safe. So, for US, 148 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: dividends are one of our five valuation factors. We look 149 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 1: at price to book, price to cash flow, price to sales, 150 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: price to earnings ratio, and dividend yields, and we particularly 151 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: like it when those dividends can grow over time. UM 152 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: So buy backs, you know, I think you have to 153 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: be very careful with them because you know, all those 154 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: buybacks companies made last year or in January February this year, 155 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 1: it looked pretty poor investments. And I don't want of 156 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: the strategies at TCW is a dividend appreciation fund. And 157 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,479 Speaker 1: I just have to assume that the universe of companies 158 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 1: that are going to be able to increase their dividends, 159 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: uh this year, maybe even next year, just it's call 160 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 1: it the near future. It must be a very swiftly 161 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 1: shrinking universe. I mean, where could one possibly look for 162 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 1: sort of a dividend aristocrat in this scenario, a company 163 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: that is able going to have the strength to be 164 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: able to increase its dividend. I mean, am I right? 165 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: That that's that's almost a very much a dying breed 166 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: right now right there. Definitely know IBM right has famous 167 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: stalwart provider of dividends. That's a big holding for us UM. 168 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: You know, our goal is to give our clients a 169 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: diversified value portfolio that has capital return plus dividend appreciation. 170 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: So uh, right now are yields in the dividend appreciation 171 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: they're higher than SMP and the Russell one thousand value. 172 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: We do have to be super careful about UM finding 173 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: the companies that can. Definitely, Chevron won't increase its dividend, 174 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: right They've already said that, but they're doing everything to 175 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: preserve their dividend and UM and that's important to us 176 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 1: that they've been disciplined for the last five years or 177 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: so that when we do have a pandemic, they are 178 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 1: able to continue to provide their shareholders with their dividends. 179 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: So dividends sanctity as well as the appreciation is going 180 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: to matter now going forward. Earlier on in the show, Diane, 181 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: you said that you believe that what we would likely 182 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: retest the lows that we saw back in March in 183 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: the market. And I bring this up because you guys 184 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 1: are in a survey and in the survey, seventy of 185 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: respondent said that they believe that what we're seeing now 186 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 1: and what we saw particularly last week is a bear 187 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: market rally and will likely retest the lows. Why are 188 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: you so sure or why do you believe that we 189 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: will retest the lows? And why do you think so 190 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: many people out there believe the same as well. It's 191 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 1: like Warren Buffett said that when the tide goes out, 192 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: you can see who's wearing their bathing suits. And that's 193 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: what's going to happen with earning suitis right? You know? 194 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 1: You might think this company that you own, um, you know, 195 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 1: has the balance sheet and income statement to uh persevere 196 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: through this environment, and then reality hits like a pie 197 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: of face. So um, that's why earning season will be 198 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: so super important because while we won't have a full quarter, 199 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: test will have um, you know, the latter half of 200 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 1: March for fiscal year quarterly earnings report, but we certainly 201 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: will start to hear company guidance and and I think 202 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: that's when reality will hit. Yeah, diet, I wanted to 203 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:51,559 Speaker 1: bring up a good question from a listener on Twitter, 204 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: UH and see what your thoughts are. His handle is 205 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 1: at j y Squall, and he said, I'm watching for 206 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: this week's episode to understand how can the market be 207 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: up when the jobless claims are skyrocketing? Now, specifically, I 208 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: think I can answer his question for that day. He 209 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,959 Speaker 1: he wrote to us on Thursday, when President Trump had 210 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 1: tweeted about his hopes for Saudi Arabia and Russia to 211 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: UH cut oil production to to bolster that market. And 212 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: I think that was a big part of that bounce 213 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 1: that day. It's sort of faded as the day went on, 214 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: as people realized maybe this was a little bit of 215 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 1: wishful thinking on the presence part. But in the bigger 216 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: scheme of things, you know, we you see these ferocious 217 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,719 Speaker 1: rebounds in the middle of bear markets like we saw 218 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: in fact, you know, the Dow was technically in a 219 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: in a bull market that, like like Sarah wrote about, 220 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: up off its lows. I'm just trying to figure out 221 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: if you have any sense of who does the buying 222 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: at that point. I mean to me, it's almost as 223 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 1: if traders understand sort of the playbook for a bear market, 224 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 1: that you get these huge bounces in the middle of 225 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: a market that is in the longer term trending downward. 226 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 1: I mean, do you think it's as simple as that, 227 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: sort of these fast twitch traders that that sort of 228 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: take command of the market at times like this when 229 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: real fundamental investors may be still on the sidelines more 230 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,439 Speaker 1: or less, there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. 231 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: Still surprising to me actually, um, considering how long and 232 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: far the school market was. But you know, everyone likes 233 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: to look in the rear view mirror in two thousand 234 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: and eight, two thousand and nine were so horrible that 235 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: a lot of people kept cash on the sidelines. What's 236 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 1: um making it very difficult for investors in the in 237 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: the here and now is that for the last thirty 238 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: days or so, the stock moves have been plus or 239 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 1: minus five percent. That's on heard of. That's an unprecedented 240 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: type of alatility. We're a big believer in dollar cost averaging. Uh. 241 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: If we have found great opportunities in the market because 242 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,319 Speaker 1: of this set off, and you think the catalysts there 243 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: for the future, we wouldn't go full out and buy 244 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: the biggest position UM we would normally hold in the portfolio. 245 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: I think this is a really good strategy for all investors. 246 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: You know, leg into the position, um, because tomorrow maybe 247 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: down or tomorrow might be up. So UM, i'd like 248 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 1: to I'd like to offer that really time tested advice. 249 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: And UM, yeah, this is once we once we there 250 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: are two hundred and sixties seven drugs in trial right now, 251 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: whether to ameliorate or be a potential vaccine for the coronavirus. 252 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: Something is going to work. You know, they're they're making 253 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: do with antibiotics or old malaria UM drugs that are 254 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: on the shelf that they're trying to dust off. But 255 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: we're going to find something. And this volatility is because 256 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: people just don't now and we do need some some 257 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: hope and resolution in terms of the disease to help 258 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: us look forward for the longer term. But I will say, 259 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: in terms of your comment about you know, how could 260 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: the market be up when John was claims are so high. 261 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: The market is an anticipatory animal and we like to 262 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 1: look forward. UM. I don't think anybody thinks this is 263 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 1: going to be the peak in the job was claims 264 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: Um but the markets will advance, uh when they can 265 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: see beyond that, and that's super important. Over the next 266 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: six to twelve months. Investors are looking at far out. 267 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 1: So you mentioned dollar cost averaging, so you can spread 268 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: it out. But of course timing the market is virtually impossible, 269 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: even for some of the biggest professionals out there, but 270 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: for those who are dying to try to figure out 271 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: if the bottom has passed, when one is best to 272 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: get in. Is it typically better to be earlier or 273 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: is it typically better to be late and be sure 274 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: at least that we're headed on the way up and 275 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: things are ameliorating or getting better. That is the age 276 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 1: old question. I have so many clients who who who 277 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: think you know exactly you know? Should I be earlier? 278 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: Should I wake till everything is good? And what happens 279 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 1: is if you wait till everything is great, then you're 280 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: afraid to invest because you think he's peaked. So you 281 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: know value you know, and particularly are so we do 282 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: tend to be early. But I do, like, I really 283 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: do love the idea of dollar cost averaging in that's amazing. 284 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: You said two hundred and sixties. Some drugs are in 285 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: trial right now for something either too as a vaccine. 286 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:51,600 Speaker 1: I guess we were to treat the symptoms of the virus. 287 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 1: It's amazing, isn't it brings me? Brings me uh to 288 00:16:56,920 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: uh point you made in this note uh opportunistic realization 289 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: of profits uh meaning you know, selling your your winners 290 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 1: when they've when they've may be gone a little too 291 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: far where you've at least you know, been able to 292 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: ride them a long time. And you you mentioned Jilliad, 293 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 1: the stock appreciated because of its has this army of 294 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: anti viral medications uh potentially to use in the fighting 295 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,919 Speaker 1: assist fires. I've noticed. I mean, it seems like there's 296 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 1: been in the midst of all this panic selling, there's 297 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: been almost um an irrational exuberance towards some of these 298 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 1: drug stocks. You know, I remember the Maderna Pharmaceuticals, very small, 299 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,959 Speaker 1: uh drug developer. Is that part of it with with 300 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 1: why you you may have trimmed some of the Giliad steak? 301 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,919 Speaker 1: Is it? Are people just getting a little too excited 302 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: about some of these drug makers? Do you think, well, 303 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 1: we still like the valuation of Gilead and um and 304 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,400 Speaker 1: you do you know, I'd like to think that investors 305 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 1: when looking for companies that might be winners here in 306 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 1: the event against COVID nineteen. When they saw that gilly 307 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: I could be one of the winners and then looked 308 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 1: at their batton sheet and their cash flow statement said oh, well, 309 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: that's a juicy dividend that I can feel quite confident about. That. 310 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,679 Speaker 1: It was a key prompt thought process for them in 311 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 1: terms of um, Gillia as a stock in the portfolio. Um, 312 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: but it did run up a little bit. And um 313 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,879 Speaker 1: and while they do have an army avantiid their old drugs, 314 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 1: and that's you know, one of them, for example, help 315 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 1: cure help, see right, help, it's helping to eradicated, which 316 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 1: is amazing. Um. You know, we did get a little 317 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,119 Speaker 1: worried that if there were too many hopes pinned from Disappear, 318 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: which is the one that is being tested in China 319 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 1: and in the US right now, that there might be 320 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 1: a near term self. And one of our disciplines is 321 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 1: if stock appreciates above five per cent in the portfolio, 322 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 1: we're automatically going to scale it back because we don't 323 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: want any name to be too big. That's interesting, So 324 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: yet you have a five percent cap on on any 325 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 1: single holding in the portfolio. Yeah, it's just it's proven 326 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: to be a good one. Yeah. Well, Mike, some would 327 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: say that certainly, as you alluded to that some of 328 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,880 Speaker 1: these moves in the healthcare names are or have been 329 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 1: a bit crazy. So you know what time it is, then, 330 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 1: I guess it's that time. Um, Sarah, we got a 331 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:30,959 Speaker 1: great uh call over the podcast hotline. For once in 332 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: my life, I have the number handy, so I'll take 333 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 1: the pressure off of you the only time, Mike. This 334 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: is the only time I haven't never had. So the 335 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 1: number is six four six three to four three four nine. Oh. 336 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: So please, if you saw something crazy in the markets, 337 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: give us a call, leave us a voicemail and maybe 338 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: we'll play your voicemail on the show. And if you 339 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: have any other comments, Uh, we're happy to be very 340 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: happy to hear from you. But we got a call 341 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: all the way from Hong Kong a listener named Gerald, 342 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: So let's listen to what he had to say. Hi, 343 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 1: I'm going to cheat just a little bit, you know, 344 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: like Mike. First, what I saw was a webcast from 345 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: a Tree Capital. In it, their co founder Howard Marks 346 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 1: mentioned a memo he wrote twenty years ago with a 347 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: quote that says you cannot predict the nixt recession or 348 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: the next market sell off, but you can prepare for it, 349 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 1: so for a wisdom as usual. Then the crazy part 350 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 1: hits me. Just three months ago, when fund managers were 351 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: making theasts. How many times have you heard some very smart, 352 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: very respectable managers say that although the market is richly valued, 353 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 1: they could see absolutely no reason for a recession in 354 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: the next six to twelve months. I may have heard 355 00:20:55,840 --> 00:21:00,160 Speaker 1: this a dozen times on various podcasts, and I at 356 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: every time there was no argument from me. These are 357 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 1: smart and successful investment professionals. But that was just three 358 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 1: months ago. It is crazy how things can change on 359 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: a dime like that. How far in the future can 360 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: we really see? Yeah, I think he makes a great point. 361 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 1: You think of all those look ahead uh forecast pieces 362 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: that people spent countless hours on and you know about 363 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: a month end of the year, they're all sort of 364 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 1: null and void. What do you take exception, Sarah with 365 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: him saying I cheat a little bit. I thought you 366 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 1: were going to say, that's what you agreed with. He 367 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 1: was calling you out. But it does remind me of 368 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: one line, I won't I won't call the shop out. 369 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 1: But there was one line I read earlier this year 370 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: that said, maybe the best reason to be bullish is 371 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:45,879 Speaker 1: the fact that there's no reason to be bearished. And 372 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,639 Speaker 1: then you have all of this evolve and it just 373 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 1: goes to show really it's nothing anyone could have predicted, 374 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: right right, Yeah, Diane, I'm wondering how you handle something 375 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 1: like that. I mean, it feels like not so long ago, 376 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 1: everyone had to be a European political science expert to 377 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: get through the debt crisis, you know. Then we were 378 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: all became sort of oil field experts and credit oil 379 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 1: credit experts, and then Iranian experts and US trying to 380 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 1: trade experts. But I gotta say having to become a 381 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 1: an expert on viruses is something new. Was It must 382 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 1: get overwhelming as a fund manager to try to have 383 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 1: to react to crisis after crisis like this, especially when 384 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: so many of them turned out to be sort of 385 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 1: false alarms, and then all of a sudden you get 386 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 1: hit by something like this. I mean, is this this 387 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: must have been one of the more stressful episodes of 388 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: your career. I would imagine, Well, I care deeply about 389 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: our clients and my most important job and we have 390 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: a lot of dear friends in Hong Kong. My most 391 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 1: important job is really to hold their hands during this 392 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: time and say, you know, let's you know, we're going 393 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 1: to be vigilant here. We're coming through the portfolio. We're 394 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 1: doing it for you. We're going to lead out the 395 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 1: names that should be leaded out in mature. We're investing 396 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 1: in the ones that will prosper for you and have 397 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,919 Speaker 1: power for you and your portfolio going forward. So that 398 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 1: surprisingly um comes to be called upon more often than not, 399 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: the job of saying this is our job, this is 400 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 1: what we love to do, and we love to take 401 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: care of you. You know, trust us. We're going to 402 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 1: guide you through this and come out the other side 403 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: for your investment portfolio. Okay, Diana, I just hope you're 404 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 1: washing your hands after you're holding all those hands. Right, sir, 405 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: what's the craziest thing you saw in markets this week? 406 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,679 Speaker 1: So my goes back to what we are discussing as 407 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,399 Speaker 1: it relates to earning seasons. So Jonathan Golf, who had 408 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: on the podcast a while back from Credit Sweeze, he 409 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: had a statistic saying that last week, seventeen percent of 410 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: analysts revised their estimates, So that's actually a lot. That 411 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 1: would amount to about four times of arder or fifteen 412 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,120 Speaker 1: times a year, So it's very high. But it's the 413 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 1: problem is, and what's crazy is it's just not fast enough. Still. 414 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: Estimates continue to be stale, and it seems as though 415 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,439 Speaker 1: bottoms up sells size. Analysts just can't keep up with 416 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,640 Speaker 1: the news flow or even just try to figure out 417 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: what companies are going to go about reporting. So it's 418 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: just pretty crazy because we're heading into this earning season 419 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,199 Speaker 1: and we don't really have a consensus for the market 420 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 1: to base anything off of. I agree, I and I 421 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 1: read that story of yours certain In fact, I quoted 422 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: it on the Tom Keans radio show to think you 423 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: show you how how much I'm paying attention there, and 424 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 1: that is It's true. Though you think in a normal 425 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 1: world you would think seventeen percent of earnings estimates were changed. 426 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: It sounds like a massive number, but it seems low 427 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: in this environment. You know, it seems like every single 428 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 1: estimate out there should be changed. It's crazy, Diane, have 429 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 1: you seen anything crazy in markets this week? I know 430 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 1: it was a pretty calm week. Well, we've got two 431 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: conflicting stories. Will there be uh, because of cohabitation and 432 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,919 Speaker 1: self quarantine me with your significant other, Will there be 433 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:11,719 Speaker 1: a baby boom? Um or countered by you know, post 434 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 1: the major quarantine process in China. Is there going to 435 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,879 Speaker 1: be a spike in divorce rates? And there was a 436 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 1: Bloomberg article that said, um, and you know it's from China, 437 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 1: so you know, we're not sure, but that that divorce 438 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: rates are picking up steadily and um and that maybe, uh, 439 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,560 Speaker 1: they're going to put some laws into place. They have 440 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 1: a third day cooling off terry when they go back 441 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: to work and maybe say, oh, well, it wasn't so bad. 442 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,400 Speaker 1: It's it's crazy how it's changing everything in society, like 443 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 1: stuff like that. You would never think, you know, it 444 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 1: would have that big an effect. That reminds me sort 445 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: of another crazy thing we had offered to us from 446 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,439 Speaker 1: our our friend Ben Emmons at Medley Global Advisors. He 447 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: pointed out that Bloomberg story mentioning and Diane, you remind 448 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,199 Speaker 1: ided me of this talking about a baby boom. But 449 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 1: he pointed out the story that there is a shortage 450 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: of condoms in the world. I guess because because the 451 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: raw materials are being used for for the gloves so, um, 452 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 1: maybe maybe that baby boom is not not such a 453 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,919 Speaker 1: wild idea. It sounds crazy, but Diane, I'm actually curious. 454 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: I mean, people think about demographics. When you think about 455 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: long term investing opportunities. If you think of the possibility 456 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 1: for a baby boom, could you imagine anyone out there 457 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 1: maybe betting on that or investing based on the possibility 458 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 1: of a baby boom coming forwards? Of course, you know, 459 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: for nine eleven, there was some thought that maybe that tragedy, 460 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 1: that horrific tragedy, would cause people to think about and 461 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 1: then we didn't see, we didn't see much of a 462 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 1: baby boom. But when it's from that, but when it's 463 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:56,879 Speaker 1: a prolonged period of cohabitation, and um, I think I 464 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: think that it would be surprising to see people either 465 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 1: duck pets or decided to have a family and um, 466 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 1: you know, one of them into our portfolios Propter and 467 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 1: gamble and certainly Pampers you know, might be right there 468 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 1: you go, it's you know, I actually did predict a 469 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 1: baby boom on Twitter early on in this and I 470 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: was joking, but I'm gonna resend the joking part of it. 471 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,639 Speaker 1: I'm now now I'm going to say that was a 472 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 1: serious It was very early to Mike in case anyone 473 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: that was a serious prediction, not a joke. I'm going 474 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: on the record train. All right. Well, I'll end it 475 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,679 Speaker 1: with the craziest thing I saw. And God bless the 476 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 1: New York Post. Whenever I think I've run out of 477 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,360 Speaker 1: crazy things in the markets, they're they're They're always there 478 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 1: for me. Uh and Sarah. This is interesting for two reasons. Obviously, 479 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 1: like yourself, everyone is supposed to be staying in their 480 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 1: apartments in New York. You're not supposed to be going out. Um, 481 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 1: but you're familiar with the famous statue on Wall Street 482 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:59,159 Speaker 1: of the charging bowl. It's called everyone knows that famous 483 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: iconic at you. Well, I'm gonta left. The New York 484 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,159 Speaker 1: Post take it away here with their headline nude woman 485 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: ignores coronavirus warnings to straddle the charging bull statue. Did 486 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 1: you see that? So this the snaked woman decided to 487 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,159 Speaker 1: go and jump on the back of the charging bull statue. 488 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:23,720 Speaker 1: This is really sanitary, I know, and I guess it. 489 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: Look there's no one around, I mean no one's probably 490 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 1: touched the bull in in days. I will say she 491 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 1: wasn't completely nude though. I I researched this. I looked 492 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,919 Speaker 1: at the pictures. She had a cowboy had on and 493 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 1: some New York fashion, yeah, some kind of bandanna around 494 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 1: her face. And this being the New York Post, you 495 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 1: didn't get just one picture. You got a full five 496 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 1: picture photo essay of this incident. Um And as the 497 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 1: Post points out, I am cheating a little bit. The 498 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 1: guy in Hong Kong's right, I'm cheating a little bit 499 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 1: because this was actually last week, but it was wasn't 500 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 1: published until after we UH published the podcast. So I 501 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 1: feel like I'm in the clear there. And where's the 502 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: connection to markets? Mike, I get the charging, but well 503 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 1: here it is. Here it is, And I'll just let 504 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 1: you make your own conclusion based on the final sentence 505 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 1: of the New York Post story, which says the unsanitary 506 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: stunt came as US stocks rallied for a third straight 507 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 1: day with the DAL finishing up and fifty two points. 508 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 1: There's a connection, so they might want to get her 509 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 1: back out there. I don't know. I'm just just just 510 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 1: in case that's hysterical. All right, Well, I'm sure going 511 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 1: forwards there will be up plenty more for us to 512 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 1: choose from and to include. But Diane JOFFI, thank you 513 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: so much for joining the show this week. Thank you guys, 514 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:48,479 Speaker 1: it was really a lot of fun What Goes Up. 515 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find 516 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,040 Speaker 1: us on the Blueberg Terminal website and app or ever 517 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took 518 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 1: the time to rate interview the show on Apple podcast 519 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 1: so more listeners can find us. And you can find 520 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 1: us on Twitter, follow me at Sara Ponzach and Mike 521 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 1: Is at Reunonymous. You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts. 522 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,960 Speaker 1: What Goes Up is produced by Topur Forehead. The head 523 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg podcast is Francesca Levie. Thanks for listening, See 524 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 1: you next time.