1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul Swinge. You 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,439 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Well, small colleges in the United 8 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: States are really facing a tough time. Dwindling enrollment is 9 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: really putting a pressure on the finances, and now it's 10 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: actually spilling over into the credit markets. To get the latest, 11 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,319 Speaker 1: we welcome Amanda Albright, municipal bond reporter for Bloomberg News. 12 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: She joins us here on a Bloomberg Interactive broker studio. So, Amanda, 13 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: really interesting story on the Bloomberg terminal today. Give us 14 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: a sense of what is happening with some of these 15 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: smaller private colleges and how it's impacting the credit markets. Yeah, 16 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: so in the muni market. Um, the troubles of small 17 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: private colleges have kind of been talked about for years, UM, 18 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: but lately we're really seeing that kind of come to 19 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: a head. Um, there is a bankruptcy by the College 20 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: of New Rochelle Um that a lot of people were 21 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: watching just to kind of see how the recoveries would fare. Um. 22 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 1: You know, it's still kind of not for for certain yet, 23 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: but it doesn't look too good for bond holders, even 24 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: though the college was sitting on some really valuable real estate. Aman, 25 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: can you just set this scene for us why private 26 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: colleges are struggling so much right now? Sure, so there's 27 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: a lot of different factors going on, but I think 28 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: enrollment and demographics are what people point to. So basically, 29 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: the number of high school graduates is kind of in 30 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: this flatlining mode UM, and there are forecasts that you know, 31 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: after that, UM, it will actually start declining. So in 32 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: regions in the Northeast and the Midwest where there are 33 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: a lot of um, small liberal arts liberal arts schools, 34 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 1: um that bills have to start competing for students, and 35 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: that could actually cause more enrollment. This isn't just a 36 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: this is not just a demographics issue. This is also 37 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: a people realizing that paying you know, two hundred thousand 38 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 1: dollars for four years in college doesn't always pay off 39 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 1: and ends up leedingly like leaving you with a ton 40 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: of debt. I mean, isn't that a big part of 41 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: it too? And people just choosing not to do it? Absolutely. 42 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: I think a lot of students. You know, there's a 43 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: lot of headlines about the student loan debt crisis that 44 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: we're in UM, and you know, people are kind of 45 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: rethinking the value of a small private school UM. And 46 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: you know, the other part of it is that, you know, 47 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 1: these small colleges, in order to kind of have the 48 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: really nice liberal arts environment, you have to spend a 49 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 1: lot to give that, you know, small classroom sizes, stuff 50 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: like that. So expenses are really becoming a problem for 51 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: these institutions too. So how typical is it for a 52 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,639 Speaker 1: U S college or university to actually tap the bond market? 53 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: Is that part of most you know, colleges, university's capital structure, 54 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: balance sheet. It's incredibly common. And I think that's what's 55 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: so interesting about this is, you know, a decade ago, 56 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: maybe it would be unthinkable that we would be in 57 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: the situation that we're in because you know, the number 58 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: of high school graduates was increasing so much. UM, so 59 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: private colleges, you know, took on debt for dorms, athletic buildings, classrooms, um. 60 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: And now you know they're kind of dealing with these 61 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 1: emptier dorm rooms, emptier classrooms and so um, it's kind 62 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: of coming back to bite them. How much is this 63 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 1: because of immigration or how much US colleges are attracting 64 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: foreign students. That's definitely part of it. And I think 65 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 1: that's something that's affecting even public institutions, even really elite colleges. 66 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: That's something that is really really interesting to keep an 67 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: eye on, you know, the next few years because you know, 68 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: ratings companies. Have you even been talking about, you know, 69 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: the the immigration issue and just kind of how international 70 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 1: students are being deterred. What's the So the New Rochelle 71 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:28,079 Speaker 1: they filed for bankruptcy. Okay, so do we have any 72 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 1: senses or any history as to the kind of recovery 73 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: rates that you typically get in these types of bankruptcies. Yeah, 74 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: So the College of New Rochelle bonds, Um, they're trading 75 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 1: around forty cents on the dollar. Um. There was a 76 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: bankruptcy by Dowling College in Long Island, UM, and bond 77 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: holders recovered an average of about seventeen percent. So that 78 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: kind of gives you an idea UM. You know, these 79 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: situations there's not a ton of debt at play. But 80 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: you know, when you have a seventeen hundred private colleges 81 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: in the US, and you know a lot of them 82 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: took on bonds, that's something that I think is very 83 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: concerning to bond holders. Are there any estimates how many 84 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: of these colleges will have to merge or close entirely? Uh, 85 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: just sort of make this make sense in terms of 86 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: how many colleges there are. It's it's been interesting because 87 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: there's been forecasts all over the place about closures and 88 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: mergers UM. And what's interesting is that in both cases 89 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: there are impediments to both. So for closures, alums will 90 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 1: often step in and do fundraising so that can that 91 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: has prevented some closures from actually happening. And that's why 92 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 1: closures are still so rare, is that, you know, it's 93 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: really painful for colleges to close. And when it comes 94 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: to mergers UM, you know, it's kind of like a 95 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: company merger, only there's even more emotions at play because 96 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 1: you know, you have alums who are worried about, you know, 97 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: losing the identity of their school. UM. You also have 98 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: the financials of colleges. You know, can to colleges make 99 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: it work if both of them are dealing with the same, 100 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,119 Speaker 1: you know, poor financial outlook. So that's kind of why 101 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 1: both are very rare. But everyone is kind of saying, 102 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: you know that they expected to continue and increase. Amanda 103 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: al right, thank you so much, really interesting story. Amanda 104 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 1: al Right. Munismal bona reporter for Bloomberg News. It is 105 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: a historic day in Washington, d C. Is the House 106 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 1: debates uh the Trump impeachment guidelines currently and is poised 107 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: for a vote on the impeachment proceedings. A lot of 108 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 1: people are perhaps shrugging this off as feeling sort of inevitable, 109 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: but here with us, I'm so pleased to say. Who 110 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: has the historical reference of twenty years in public service, 111 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,839 Speaker 1: including working in all three branches of the federal government 112 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 1: is Chris Lew, Senior fellow at the University of Virginia 113 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 1: Miller Center, which studies the presidency. He's also a former 114 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: senior White House aid to President Obama. Chris, so good 115 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 1: to have you. Can you paint today in a historic 116 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: sort of picture to understand the importance even if people 117 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: sort of shrug it off, as somewhat inevitable it will 118 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 1: be passed by the House and shot down by the Senate. Yeah. No, 119 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 1: I mean it's exactly right. Whether you think this is 120 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: a good idea or not a good idea, it's a 121 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: historic moment. Uh. The President Trump is set to be 122 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: only the third president ever impeached. There was a fourth, 123 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: Richard Nixon, who didn't quite even make it to this 124 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 1: point before he resigned. And so, you know what what 125 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:26,119 Speaker 1: is being discussed today, and inevitably, how the Senate trial goes, 126 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: we'll we'll be setting guardrails for future presidencies and good 127 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: or a bad way. And so look, um, you know, politics, 128 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: Um is what this is all about. I mean, I 129 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 1: don't mean that in a bad way, but we always 130 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: think about this in political terms. But this is a 131 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: really historical thing that will be studied for many years 132 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: after this. So Chris, let's fast forward a little bit. 133 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: Let's I'm kind of making the assumption that the House 134 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: will vote to impeach today. We get to the Senate 135 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 1: and it appears like the Republicans are the leaded leadership. 136 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell, Lindsay Graham and so on are coordinating with 137 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: the White House and and maybe not going to call 138 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 1: any witnesses. How right common or unusual is that? Well, look, 139 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: I don't think the coordination is uncommon. I think the 140 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: you know, openly bragging about the coordination, which is what 141 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 1: the Mitch McConnell is saying, as well as Lindsey Graham saying, look, 142 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: I'm not even gonna try to be fair. Um. You 143 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: know a lot of people have analogized the senators to jurors. 144 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 1: They're kind of like jurors, but they're kind of like 145 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: judges as well. And I think what you've seen in 146 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 1: previous impeachments um is at least senators kind of at 147 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: least saying, uh, you know, we're going to try to 148 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: objectively look at the facts. And I think what's less 149 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: clear here is how that senator trial is going to 150 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: go down, because ultimately it's it's up to a majority 151 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 1: of senators as to whether they want to call additional 152 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,239 Speaker 1: witnesses or simply rest on the record that was developed 153 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: in the House. So, given what you were talking about, 154 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: that this impeachment proceeding will set guardrails in a way 155 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: and guidelines for future presidencies, what are you watching in 156 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: terms of the developments today and future ones that are 157 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,559 Speaker 1: expected in the Senate that will give us a sense 158 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: of how this is going. Well. You know, it is interesting. 159 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: The most recent example we have is obviously the Clinton impeachment, 160 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: which dealt with both perjury and obstruction of justice, and 161 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: so a majority of the House impeach President Clinton on that. Again, 162 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: it was largely a partisan vote. So if that's sort 163 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: of the floor of what qualifies as an impeachable offense. Uh, 164 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: And then you go back to the Watergate impeachment, where 165 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:31,239 Speaker 1: again it was abuse of abuse of process, abuse of power, 166 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, obstruction of justice, obstruction of Congress. That was 167 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: sort of at a different level. You know, you probably 168 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 1: put the Trump impeachment probably closer to Watergate than to Clinton. 169 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: But the fact that, um, you know, many of the 170 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: same people who voted for the Clinton impeachment will now 171 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: vote against the Trump impeachment does leave you sort of 172 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 1: scratching your head as to how you can rationalize these 173 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: things intellectually. So, Chris, there's been some reporting that, you know, 174 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: behind closed doors, many Republicans say, you know, we're not 175 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: really supportive at President Trump, his administration, many of his 176 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: policies but you know, we're you know, we've got to 177 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: support him here. Are you surprised that we haven't had 178 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: any Republicans? Are any meaningful number of Republicans come out 179 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: against Trump? And will we see it in maybe today's 180 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 1: vote or in the Senate? Well, it is sort of interesting. 181 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:21,959 Speaker 1: I mean, I think we will expect to see, uh today, 182 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 1: essentially three members of Congress break from their parties. UM. 183 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 1: Justin Amash, formerly a Republican, has already switched to an independent. 184 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: Jeff Andrew, a Democrat, will vote against impeachment and then 185 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 1: leave his party. So essentially of the three people who 186 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 1: will vote against impeachment to have had to leave their party. Uh. 187 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: Contrast that with Clinton, there was probably you know, a 188 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: half dozen to a dozen members on either side who 189 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 1: sort of flipped votes. And I think in large measure 190 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 1: reflects the partisanship um that we have in this country 191 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 1: right now. Um. You know, people famously remember the Watergate 192 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: moment when UM, both House and Senate Republican leaders went 193 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: to Richard Nixon and said, look, we we don't um, 194 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,439 Speaker 1: we can't condone your behavior. We don't have the support 195 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: if you don't resign, we're going to impeach you you know, 196 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: that was forty five years ago. You can't really imagine 197 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 1: that kind of a conduct or by by Republican leaders 198 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 1: in this current climate. I'm trying to understand that. You know, 199 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: it's really important that you mentioned that this is a 200 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: really partisan issue and as part of the reason why, Uh, 201 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: sort of there's this image being painted that there's an 202 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 1: apathy about the proceedings is just sort of political theater. 203 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: But can you sort of paint this also in terms 204 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: of how unusual it is or is this common? I mean, 205 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: was the Nixon impeachment also viewed as very much of 206 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: just a partisan issue? Yeah, And you know, there's a 207 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 1: couple of ways to look at it. What is based 208 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,440 Speaker 1: on public opinion polls, you know right now, you know, 209 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: it's depending on which poll you look at. About forty 210 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: six to fifty percent of the American public believes that 211 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: President Trump should be impeached. That's significantly higher than any 212 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: that than what was the case in Clinton, where um 213 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: support frompeachment early across and really in the Nixon impeachment 214 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: it only crossed that mark at the very end, about 215 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: the month before he finally resigned. Uh, The support for 216 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: impeachment cross, so you know, and and I think in 217 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 1: some measure reflects that these charges against President Trump are 218 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 1: easy to understand and people can sort of make their 219 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: assessment one way or another whether it's improper. But I 220 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 1: think it also reflects the partisan nature of our country 221 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 1: right now. We are a fifty fifty country. And what's 222 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 1: unfortunate here is that this is a historic moment. This 223 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: is one of the most solemn responsibilities that a member 224 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,439 Speaker 1: of Congress can undergo, and for many of these members 225 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: of Congress, this will be the most consequential vote that 226 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 1: they will take in Congress. And yet everything is sort 227 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:45,199 Speaker 1: of being seen through a partisan political lens instead of 228 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: an impartial examination of the facts and law, which is 229 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:51,079 Speaker 1: I don't expect to see much of that on the 230 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: House floor today. I'm hoping when we get to the 231 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 1: Senate we're able to do a little bit of that. Hey, Chris, 232 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,680 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate your 233 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,079 Speaker 1: insight here into what is again as you suggest it 234 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: and characterizes a historic day. Chris lewis a senior fellow 235 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: at the University of Virginia Miller Center, which studies the presidency. 236 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 1: He's also a former senior White House aide to President 237 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: of AMAS. So interesting getting Chris is well informed comments 238 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: about the process, about the likelihood of how this will 239 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: proceed as we make the vote today through UH the 240 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: House and then we get to the Senate. So we 241 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: will have all of that for you. Coming up. FedEx 242 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: shares not having a particularly boring day, but not having 243 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 1: a good day by any means. Shares down more than 244 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 1: ten percent after giving guidance that was absolutely slaughtered by 245 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: Wall Street analysts. Joining us out to talk about what 246 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 1: actually went wrong here, as Satisha Jindal, he's president of 247 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: s J Consulting. Satisha, I just want to start with 248 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: at the sort of elephant in the room. How much 249 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 1: does this stem from Amazon dot Com telling some of 250 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: its third party businesses and clients that they cannot ship 251 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 1: with that ax practically none? Okay, great, I'm glad that 252 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 1: we've established that. So what was the main driver here? 253 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: The main drivers that are two structural issues taking place 254 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 1: and in both the express business domestically in the US 255 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 1: and in the ground business, which are the two major 256 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 1: drivers of revenue and profitability for the company. And in 257 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 1: the express business, the market has been declining practically it's 258 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 1: flat over last fourteen years because not too many people 259 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: are shipping packages across the country. They don't need express, 260 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: so they've got, in my view, too many aircraft. They 261 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 1: could bring more of them down and as a reference 262 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: to UPS, handles as many parcels in express network as 263 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: fed X while doing it with fewer aircraft because they 264 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 1: have integrated network. And during the same last fifteen years, 265 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: why express volume has been practically flat one percent increased, 266 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: grounds increased, and yet fed X is not adjusted structurally 267 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: to handling it in that manner? What what? Why are 268 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: they not you know, making that change. When I think of, 269 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: you know, moving packages around, I think of fed X. 270 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: I mean they kind of created this whole industry, this 271 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: whole business. What are they missing here? Why? You're correct, 272 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: they created the express industry, and absolutely fred Smith is 273 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: a legend and art industry, but that was for the 274 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 1: express service that started for two years ago. The parcel 275 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: and the industry for express documents also is absolutely degrees 276 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: turned around over these years. Now everything is moving a 277 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: short distance and in ground and then it is not 278 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 1: business to business. The business to consumer is growing at 279 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: two or three times the rate of business to business 280 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 1: and they failed to recognize the changes driven by e 281 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: commerce that was resulting lower yal due to lighter weight 282 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: and short of zones, and they don't comment about being 283 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: attention to it until March of this is you make 284 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 1: a really important point, which is perhaps they should be 285 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: reducing assets and reducing investment rather than increasing it. Am 286 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: I reading that correctly? Because it comes at a time 287 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: of them increasing investment across the whole host of different areas. 288 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: You are absolutely spot on. You should be a financial 289 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: analyst because they talk about I mean, they talk about 290 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 1: having a capex of five pot nine billion dollars in 291 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: this fiscal leer, next fiscal leer and the one after that, 292 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: and they're buying a lot of aircraft. They should be 293 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: rinking their capacs. They should not be buying new aircraft. 294 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: Existing aircraft don't have to be retired because they don't 295 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: need so many aircraft, and they could retire them and 296 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: put it on the ground and do it at the 297 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: lower cost and invest in the ground network. And here's 298 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: another thing that has been overlooked. The ground business quartered 299 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 1: over quarter compared to last year, increased revenue by hundred 300 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: and seventy three million, but the purchase. Transportation cost went 301 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: up by two salary and wages went up by eighty, 302 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: so they went up by three millions in costs to 303 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: get extra hundred and seventy million revenue. That that is 304 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 1: a structural issue that will get corrected, but it won't 305 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: happen in one quarter. It will be at least three 306 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: quarters to a year before they get that. But they 307 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: needed to do it real quickly. Was that a good 308 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: move to kind of severe business with Amazon? It just 309 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 1: seems odd to me. My view is that it's they 310 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: should have been able to make money handling the business, 311 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 1: and if they chose not to, it should have never 312 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: become an element to be shared in the public, should 313 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: have never gotten any ink in the media, and now 314 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 1: they did that. So Amazon did what they did last 315 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 1: couple of days, and it will be back and forth 316 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: and that isn't healthy for either party. Satista Jindel, thank 317 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Satista Ganel, as the 318 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 1: president of s J Consulting, joining us here to talk 319 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:40,119 Speaker 1: about fed X again. The stock down about ten on 320 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 1: weaker than expected guidance going forward, setting weaker global trade 321 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 1: and also probably some of the issues with Amazon dot 322 00:17:47,160 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 1: Com walking away from that business. All right, let's take 323 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: stock of nineteen s and p up about seven investment 324 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: grade bonds up about fourteen percent. Even municipal bonds had 325 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: a stellar year, up over seven percent. Let's talk about 326 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 1: the municipal bond market. We welcome Jeff Berger, senior portfolio 327 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 1: manager for US municipal bond Strategies at Melon Investments based 328 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: on Boston, but joining us here in our Bloomberg Bloomberg 329 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 1: Interactive Broker studio. So, Jeff, give us a sense about 330 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: the muni performance in nineteen What drove it? Thanks for 331 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 1: having me. The performance in municipals really across the curve 332 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: was stellar in two thousand nineteen, and precisely to answer 333 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: your question what drove it? If you look at technical 334 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: fundamental evaluation factors in our market, the one that really 335 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: stands out our technical factors technical factors meaning really supply 336 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 1: and demand in our market. And the demand really was 337 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: unprecedented in two thousand nineteen, particularly from US retail investors. 338 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 1: In fact, the highest on records since really records of 339 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: municipal mutual fund inflows began in In no year have 340 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: we seen more interest in the SASSA class than we 341 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: saw in two thousand nineteen, so technical factors drove the gains. 342 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 1: I'm wondering about the potential risks because I tend to 343 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 1: be a kill joy, but also because we were just 344 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: talking to Amanda all Right from Bloomberg News about the 345 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: fact that private colleges are are going to be devaulting 346 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: on their debt. Do you view this market as riskier 347 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,359 Speaker 1: or do you view it as a place to just 348 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 1: keep on plowing in because the technicals are going to 349 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: continue being good. Yes. Now that's that's a really on 350 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: point question, the sense that anytime you see a market 351 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: with the type of stellar demand that you've seen in 352 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen, I think as prudent investment managers like 353 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 1: we are at Melon, looking at what's driven this, you 354 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 1: always have to ask the question what could go wrong? 355 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,919 Speaker 1: What could change? And and it's really a probabilistic type analysis. 356 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: And so if you look at the of what could 357 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,360 Speaker 1: change and what's the probability of that changing, I would 358 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 1: say the probably ability of it is low, and what 359 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 1: that change could be would be a reversal of of 360 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,959 Speaker 1: all these flows. It's really, in my opinion and our 361 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: the team's opinion, not not so much a credit issue 362 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: per se, it's whether the retail demand for this asset 363 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,680 Speaker 1: class were to change for for any number of reasons. 364 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: We don't think those reasons are in place right now. 365 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: Um again, really looking at what's driven that retail inflow 366 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: in our market, it has a lot to do with 367 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: the Tax Cutting Job Act. It has to do with 368 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: the fact that state and local taxes being kept at 369 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 1: ten thousand dollars as the maximum you could deduct from 370 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 1: your federal tax liability. About it has driven a lot 371 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 1: of people in and so it's our opinion that that 372 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: that demand and the reason for that demand is not 373 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: likely to abate anytime soon. So an election year, how 374 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 1: do you be there's gonna be a lot of talk 375 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: about tax policy and lots of other things. How do 376 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 1: you mean this will is typically perform in a in 377 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 1: an election year. Sure, So, when we think about elections 378 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: in the impact on the municipal bond market, there are 379 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 1: a number of factors that we consider. The first is, well, 380 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: typically uh, come come elections season, A number of ballots 381 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: on on the referendum or initiative process to say do 382 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 1: we want to issue more debt as a local community. 383 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 1: So we're gonna be paying attention to how much debt 384 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 1: is on the ballot and how much of it gets 385 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: approved this November. By and large, though, this market is 386 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: well capable of absorbing more supplies, so that in terms 387 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 1: of hierarchies not the number one concern. What we also 388 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: are paying attention to are the implications from tax policy, 389 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 1: whether it's the re election of the president or a 390 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: Democrat coming into power. Under both scenarios where of the 391 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: mindset currently that the tax policy You've seen Donald Trump's 392 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 1: tax policy with a salt cap, and most of the 393 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: Democrats are proposing some uh tax policy change, meaning tax increase. 394 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: Both of those generally are good for for the market. 395 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: And the final piece we're paying attention to is whether 396 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: there's an increased probability of a federal infrastructure bill um 397 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 1: post election. There's arguments that you really, you really think 398 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: there's any chance of that post election, we're talking talking 399 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: next year, We're gonna be doing infrastructure next year. Well, 400 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:13,880 Speaker 1: we certainly desperately need it, so it's maybe it's aspirational 401 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: in the sense that as infrastructure bell Yes, is that 402 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 1: the gateway tunnel right across the literally And is it 403 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: like you love your pet project. I just blew through 404 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,920 Speaker 1: LaGuardia this morning, and that's great. What's going on there? 405 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 1: I mean, is it? Though? With the cabs it's ridiculous. 406 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 1: So I took Uber so I did not have to deal. 407 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: I'm learning so we evolve as as consumers, and I've 408 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 1: learned that the taxi line can be a little long. 409 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 1: All right. One question, I just quickly to wrap it 410 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,199 Speaker 1: up here. What about foreign investment. We've seen an increase there. 411 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: What are you expecting on that front? Absolutely? I think 412 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 1: foreign investors is probably one of the most underreported stories 413 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,040 Speaker 1: in our market in the sense that what you're seeing 414 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: across the globe is a demand for this asset class 415 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: driven by just low sovereign yields across the world, with 416 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 1: a third of the world at sub zero rates, You're 417 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 1: seeing new buyers into this asset class. And what gets 418 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 1: us most excited is global investors really for the first 419 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: time are recognizing the under appreciation, the under value of 420 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 1: this market. That the opportunities and municipals are being recognized 421 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: across the globe, and you're seeing that now a tremendous 422 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: flow from both Europe and Asia. All Right, and before 423 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 1: we let you go, Jeff, what project? What's your number 424 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: one infrastructure pet project that you would push for? What 425 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 1: I would push for? Oh gosh, So I'm a Boston person, 426 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: so I'm gonna root you already had the big dig. Yeah, 427 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 1: but you know, I'm also green, and so I think 428 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: let's let's move away from the big dig and let's 429 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: really work on public transportation. I think our T M 430 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,399 Speaker 1: B T A in Boston can could be improved. Jeff Burger, 431 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,200 Speaker 1: who is green? Jeff Burger, Senior Profolio Manager for US 432 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: Municipal Bond Strategies at Melon Investments, based in Boston. Thank 433 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 1: you so much for being here. Thanks for listening to 434 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe and 435 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform 436 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,919 Speaker 1: you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 437 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: I'm Lisa Abram Wohits. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abram 438 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: Whits One. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. 439 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio