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Speaker 1: Founder of andre and Capital Management, Pierre who joined US now, Pierre,

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Speaker 1: thank you first of all for joining US. I mean

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Speaker 1: OPEK Plus is always rather exciting because they've surprised, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the past, but actually if you look at the

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Speaker 1: price of all they've always been right, what are you

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Speaker 1: expecting them to do this time around?

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Speaker 2: So it's a bit tricky.

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Speaker 3: So I think the Southdeast would want to see higher prices.

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Speaker 2: But when you look at current to.

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Speaker 3: OPEC production or opek Plus production or export over the

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Speaker 3: last months or two, they have been the same as

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Speaker 3: the average of the last year. So despite all the

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Speaker 3: announcements of cuts, opek Plus as the group has not

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Speaker 3: cut much production at all since last year Soudiast cut,

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Speaker 3: but against that we and Russia did like marginal cuts,

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Speaker 3: but against that we had a lot more all from

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Speaker 3: Iran and more all from from Iraq and from West Africa.

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Speaker 3: So overall, you know, like we we haven't had like

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Speaker 3: much OPEC Plus cuts. So I think the Soudiast we

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Speaker 3: probably want the other countries to cut as well. So

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a negotiation where the

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Speaker 3: Saudis is we will probably use that lowllipop cut as

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Speaker 3: a potential stick if the other countries don't cut more.

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Speaker 3: And why I think we need a cut is actually

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Speaker 3: we had much larger US supply growth and expected this year.

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Speaker 3: So we had one point five million dollars a day

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Speaker 3: totally quid growth relative to last year, which is one

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Speaker 3: of like the in the top three supply growth in

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Speaker 3: history in the US. So, like we were expecting much

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Speaker 3: more supply growths and also a lot of eranional came

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Speaker 3: back and we didn't lose any Russian oil pretty much,

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Speaker 3: and we had more oil from Iraq and West Africa.

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Speaker 1: Pso, so what does the meaningful cut actually look like

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Speaker 1: that he thinks will be achieved. I mean there's so

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Speaker 1: much geo particle uncertainty as well. I wonder whether everyone's

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Speaker 1: a little bit in a wait and see situation.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think in terms of geopolitical risk, people you know,

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Speaker 3: wait for something to happen before positioning for it, because

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Speaker 3: I think so much money has been lost positioning for

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Speaker 3: that and then nothing happens. So look, you know last

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Speaker 3: year Russia invaded Ukraine and you know we didn't lose

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Speaker 3: in the oil and we got some spr release, so

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Speaker 3: actually it was a verish event. For the old market.

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Speaker 3: Since two thousand and five, people have been you know,

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Speaker 3: positioning for a war with Iran and losing money because

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Speaker 3: it never happened. So I think the market generally tends

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Speaker 3: to discount potential geopolticolorist wait for the supply discuptions to happen,

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Speaker 3: and then the price moves. So I don't think it's over.

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Speaker 3: And potentially we could have disruptions, but they have not

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Speaker 3: happened yet, so I think we have to go back

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Speaker 3: to fundamentals, looking at supply goaless versus demand goes. Demand

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Speaker 3: growth is very strong, so despite all the fears of

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Speaker 3: with the weak macroeconomic outlook, demand grows. This eries estimated

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Speaker 3: to be around two point three million baths a day,

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Speaker 3: which is twice the average on average demand goes, so

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Speaker 3: demand gross is not the issue. And we still have

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Speaker 3: some weak every to happen COVID because some countries have

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Speaker 3: not fully re opened, many in Asia, so I think

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Speaker 3: there's still a bit more demand goes to come, but

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Speaker 3: the supply has been issued a lot more supplies than expected.

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Speaker 2: So you were you.

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Speaker 1: Actually started the year by calling I think well to

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Speaker 1: be at around one hundred and fully dollars are you

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Speaker 1: sticking to that or is.

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Speaker 3: Not really because bringing it down because we had a

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Speaker 3: lot more supply from Iran. I didn't expect, you know,

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Speaker 3: the US administration to close their eyes on and to

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Speaker 3: stop enforcing the Iranian sanctions. So Iran exports pretty much

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Speaker 3: as much as before the sanctions, and the US supply

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Speaker 3: goes is probably eight hundred seven hundred, eight hundred thousand

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Speaker 3: births a day higher than expected. And then we didn't

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Speaker 3: lose oil from Russia. We you know, we got more

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Speaker 3: oil from Iraq and West Africa. Forecasts, you know, it

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Speaker 3: will depend a lot on what OPEK will do this weekend, right,

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Speaker 3: So it's hard to stick your neck out of the market.

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Speaker 3: Our markets were not finally balanced. They're not you know,

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Speaker 3: massively oversupplied or under supplied is a friendly balance. So

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Speaker 3: it's all as the margin. If OPEK does cut that

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Speaker 3: large enough so I would say, like a million balls

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Speaker 3: a day lower relative to current production, then then the

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Speaker 3: market will go up. If they try to micro manage

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Speaker 3: the market, you know, months to months, I think it

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Speaker 3: will stay here or go a bit lower. And if

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Speaker 3: the other OPEC members do not you know, do like

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Speaker 3: you know, do not want to cut and sadly have

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Speaker 3: to you know, to be the only one cutting. I

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Speaker 3: think they will give up and potentially bring some production

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Speaker 3: back online and then will go much higher. So it

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Speaker 3: will depend a lot on that meeting. So I'll have

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Speaker 3: probably a better opinion on Monday.

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Speaker 1: They'll come back on Monday. How's your fund doing? You know,

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Speaker 1: you've had some maps, You've had some downs. How difficult

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Speaker 1: is it holding on, first all, to your clients.

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Speaker 3: Holding to the clients is okay for now because most

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Speaker 3: of them have been with us for a very long time,

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Speaker 3: so they've seen a lot of good deals and so

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Speaker 3: they don't, you know, leave at the first time. You

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Speaker 3: know of we recovered in the past of large dro dwins.

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Speaker 3: Just about being patient. I know that for me, the

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Speaker 3: worst kind of markets are those kind of markets where

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Speaker 3: there's no clear direction and it's very volatile. I mean,

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Speaker 3: for the last year and a half, we have many

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Speaker 3: times where all places would go down ten dollars in

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Speaker 3: one or two days for nowison and then go back up.

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Speaker 3: And so when you have like a strong view, and

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Speaker 3: then strong view means like a strong position, you're not

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Speaker 3: being chopped by that volatility. And I've always done you know,

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Speaker 3: badly in those type of markets, but they tend to

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Speaker 3: be maybe ten percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: We have those markets, and then we.

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Speaker 3: Have the market that are more obvious, where it goes

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Speaker 3: in one direction for some time, and then that's when

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Speaker 3: we tend.

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Speaker 2: To do well.

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Speaker 1: So why do you think it's this kind of market

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Speaker 1: that we're living with the geo politics at the margins

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Speaker 1: they are so difficult to read, or is it actually

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Speaker 1: countries that have behaved in ways that you weren't expecting.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a lot of from theom event right

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Speaker 3: as I said earlier, it's the fact that you have

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Speaker 3: a lot of countries raising production at the same time,

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Speaker 3: some cutting and benicates you know at them. What makes

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Speaker 3: the old prices is supply minors demand. When inventories go

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Speaker 3: down strongly, poicies will go up and vice versa. So

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Speaker 3: when you're in a situation where you have the supply increase,

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Speaker 3: you know, meeting the demand increase, and there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of and it's hard to forecast white the supply, what

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Speaker 3: the supply increase will be next year, and the demand increase,

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Speaker 3: and the markets are volatile and they don't go anywhere,

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Speaker 3: and then that's when.

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Speaker 2: It becomes shoppy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what's your take on China? Again, this is the

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Speaker 1: biggest of the software direct investment going into China. I

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Speaker 1: think negative for the first time since, you know, since

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Speaker 1: on record, But it's unclear again they're opening. We don't

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Speaker 1: know how much support the government will actually give to

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Speaker 1: some of.

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Speaker 2: These real estate developers. Well, it's uh.

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Speaker 3: I think they want to be careful because there's been

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Speaker 3: so much speculation going into real estate, you know, like

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Speaker 3: poisies are just so high. So I think it's I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure they'll come with a basuka. I think it's

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Speaker 3: going to be like a marginal help. But for the

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Speaker 3: oil markets, I don't think that the Chinese real estate market,

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Speaker 3: you know, is such a driver for oil. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it can be like a marginal plus, but it's not

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Speaker 3: what's going to drive the market going forward.

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Speaker 1: So what's your outlook for the oil markets in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. There's a lot of unknowns.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a lot of a none So it's hard

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Speaker 3: to have a strong opinion now. So I think it

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Speaker 3: will depend a lot on what opek you know, de

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Speaker 3: sides on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: Really, I mean, if.

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Speaker 1: We have a Trump back in the White House. Does

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Speaker 1: that change also the course of the price of oil

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Speaker 1: or how much they'll produce.

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Speaker 2: Maybe.

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Speaker 3: I don't think we'll change anything for the US supply

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Speaker 3: because you know, despite all the talk that you know,

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Speaker 3: Biden was hard on production growth, well we have one

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Speaker 3: of the top production growth ever like in the US.

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Speaker 3: So it's more driven by technological improvements and these kind

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Speaker 3: of things.

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Speaker 2: But where it can have an impact.

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Speaker 3: If Trump was to come back and it goes hard

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Speaker 3: on Iran and it goes hard on Venezuela, then we

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Speaker 3: do some oil and it could be marginally podiciy for

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Speaker 3: the oil price. So it's going to be more from

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Speaker 3: you know, like foreign policy than domestic policy.

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Speaker 1: But you're not I mean a lot of actually expecting

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Speaker 1: surplus in the oil because of the economy going down

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Speaker 1: and a lot of supply out there. Do you expect

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Speaker 1: kind of a significant downturn in some of the Western economies.

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Speaker 3: Well, the thing is when you look weekly, if you

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Speaker 3: have like a normal recession, like you don't lose much

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Speaker 3: oil demand.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's quite marginal.

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Speaker 3: You lose like half a million baros de relative to

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Speaker 3: an average year, and so it's nothing relative to what

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Speaker 3: OPEC could cut, or how much supply could disappoint. So

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Speaker 3: I think on its own it's not enough, like a

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Speaker 3: weak economy or even a WE session is not enough

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Speaker 3: to bring prices down. But if you have a weak

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Speaker 3: economy coupled with a very strong supply goes in the

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Speaker 3: US and or Peck not cutting, then yeah, of course

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Speaker 3: it's negative for aild places. But on its own, when

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Speaker 3: you look it's weekly we had way to nine brought

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Speaker 3: like a strong demands decline, but that's not because of.

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Speaker 2: A VI session.

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Speaker 3: It's a full blown financial crisis, right, the world's topped.

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Speaker 3: And then obviously the pandemic is a COVID pandemic. But

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Speaker 3: when you look at a wage sessions, you don't lose

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Speaker 3: so much demands.

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Speaker 2: It's quite marginal.

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Speaker 1: But so if you look at the markets and the

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Speaker 1: way there's positioning on the oil markets, but as some

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Speaker 1: treasuries and everything else that you look at, what are

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Speaker 1: people misunderstanding? What are they getting wrong?

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Speaker 3: I don't know if they're getting it wrong, and so

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Speaker 3: far it's not more marketing it wrong. But the I

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Speaker 3: would say, like the positioning for oil, the hedgephones are

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Speaker 3: very short, or at least the speculative length is close

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Speaker 3: to all time law, so I think they're looking at

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's how to know what they're looking at

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Speaker 3: because you have a lot of different fonts. But I

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Speaker 3: think the macro community in the US is probably focused

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Speaker 3: on demand was disappointing, like a weak economy to come.

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Speaker 2: And then like week.

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Speaker 3: Week demand, But so far demand kept on being revised up.

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Speaker 3: So there have been one on that, you know, on

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Speaker 3: that point. Will it come next year?

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Speaker 2: Maybe?

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Speaker 3: Maybe not, because I think there's still some demand we

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Speaker 3: from COVID to come, you know, like, so I don't

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Speaker 3: think demand will really be the issue. But the fonts

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Speaker 3: are actually quite short now and they are short going

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Speaker 3: into a bigger Peck meeting. So and I think the

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Speaker 3: you know, Prince Abdulaziz probably knows that they're short and

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Speaker 3: it might want to supply them. But I think it's

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Speaker 3: the other ones will the other countries will have to

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Speaker 3: cut as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, going into the Spegopic plus meeting, what

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Speaker 1: do you do? How do you actually work to take

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Speaker 1: a big position before you just wait and see?

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Speaker 3: And then I think I think it's better to wait

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Speaker 3: and see. I think it's more likely that it would

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Speaker 3: be a bullish outcome, but there's also a low probility

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Speaker 3: event that it might be a very biggish outcome. I

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Speaker 3: think it's more like a ten or fifteen percent probability

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Speaker 3: in case the other OPECH members you know, do not

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Speaker 3: want to cut, and so there's a ten percent probability

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Speaker 3: maybe that we go much lower as well. So in

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Speaker 3: a way, I think you probably want to be positive

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Speaker 3: going into that meeting, but be careful of the sizing

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Speaker 3: in case something bad happens. And generally the market doesn't

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Speaker 3: price news, you know right way, it tends to diffuse

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Speaker 3: of a time too. It's better to wait for the

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Speaker 3: wizard analyze it and then if it's if it's obvious,

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Speaker 3: then put the position after.

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Speaker 1: So interesting, Pierre, thank you so much. Thunder there on

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Speaker 1: your own capital management, Pierre, on your own