1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:06,520
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. But this one is good.

2
00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,479
Speaker 1: All right. Here we go throwing in job.

3
00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,280
Speaker 2: We're saying it's a cash.

4
00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:19,440
Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

5
00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,239
Speaker 1: go to win. God, that's incredible.

6
00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:24,280
Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank.

7
00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:25,439
Speaker 1: I like to make money.

8
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,040
Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabaki.

9
00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:29,240
Speaker 4: You want to back.

10
00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:33,320
Speaker 1: And we are underway.

11
00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,160
Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. Hi, I am Brandon Anderson,

12
00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:42,280
Speaker 4: joined as always by Raheem Palmer and folks. We finally

13
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,080
Speaker 4: made it to week one. The Dallas Cowboys played the

14
00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:50,280
Speaker 4: defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night.

15
00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:54,040
Speaker 4: We've got a full slate of fourteen games on Sunday.

16
00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:56,760
Speaker 3: Raheem, we are back.

17
00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:58,080
Speaker 1: We are.

18
00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:01,040
Speaker 2: I mean, it's been a long offseason in we got

19
00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:02,720
Speaker 2: a number of teams where we feel like win the

20
00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,840
Speaker 2: Super Bowl this year. It's just we got fans in

21
00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 2: the stadium this year. I mean, we didn't really have

22
00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,240
Speaker 2: that too much last season. So I mean it's gonna

23
00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,720
Speaker 2: be a good, great NFL season. I'm excited. So hopefully

24
00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:14,520
Speaker 2: we make some money.

25
00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:17,440
Speaker 4: There's no hoping about it. We're gonna make some money.

26
00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,680
Speaker 4: We're gonna get some good picks today for this special

27
00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,200
Speaker 4: Labor Day weekend episode. We're on a Tuesday today, We'll

28
00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,880
Speaker 4: be coming at you Monday, Wednesday, Friday all season long.

29
00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,640
Speaker 4: Today we're gonna hit the important news and the line

30
00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,479
Speaker 4: movements heading into week one, and we're actually gonna introduce

31
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,399
Speaker 4: a couple of our segments that Raheem and I will

32
00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,360
Speaker 4: be doing all season long, including something we don't think

33
00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:38,600
Speaker 4: you're gonna find anywhere else.

34
00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,200
Speaker 3: So before we get started, just a quick.

35
00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,720
Speaker 4: Reminder everything else that you can find the last couple

36
00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:45,959
Speaker 4: of weeks if you are cramming for the season right

37
00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:49,840
Speaker 4: here on the Action Network Podcast. We've got four hours

38
00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,960
Speaker 4: of win totals from Stockey, Raybond and Kerner, got a

39
00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,360
Speaker 4: couple hours of a full thirty two team preview from

40
00:01:56,440 --> 00:02:00,800
Speaker 4: Raheem and me. There's awards, there's season leaders. Everything you

41
00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,360
Speaker 4: need on there, so make sure check that out. As always,

42
00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:08,120
Speaker 4: our odds today are from bet MGM, the official odds

43
00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:12,359
Speaker 4: provider of the Action Network Podcast. So let's jump into

44
00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,440
Speaker 4: some week one talk. One of the things that everyone

45
00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:17,720
Speaker 4: is definitely gonna be talking about this week are those

46
00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:22,120
Speaker 4: three starting rookie quarterbacks. So Raheem, we've got Trevor Lawrence

47
00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,960
Speaker 4: and the Jaguars favored in Houston. We got Zach Wilson

48
00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,000
Speaker 4: and the Jets underdogs in Carolina, and Mac Jones and

49
00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:32,560
Speaker 4: the Patriots favorite at home against Miami. Which one of

50
00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:34,639
Speaker 4: those rookies do you think is most likely to win

51
00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:35,600
Speaker 4: this first game?

52
00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,360
Speaker 2: Just by nature of the odds, I think you have

53
00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,440
Speaker 2: to go with the Jaguars. I mean, they are favorites

54
00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 2: on the road against a bad Texas team that's had

55
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,360
Speaker 2: a lot of turmoil, So I think that's the obvious choice.

56
00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,440
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie to you. I think the Jets

57
00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,920
Speaker 2: are live dogs this weekend. I don't know if you

58
00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,760
Speaker 2: guys heard the news, but the Panthers placed their starting

59
00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,800
Speaker 2: right guard John Miller on the reserve COVID nineteen list.

60
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,440
Speaker 2: I think that's that's a big loss for them. And

61
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,359
Speaker 2: I'm a believer in his Jets offense. I think Zach

62
00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,040
Speaker 2: Wilson is he has a great chance at the offensive

63
00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,000
Speaker 2: Rookie of the year. He's gonna go out there and

64
00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,200
Speaker 2: tear it up. So I'm a big fann We're gonna

65
00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,120
Speaker 2: touch on that a little bit more later, but I mean,

66
00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:16,560
Speaker 2: I think you got to go with the Jaguars here.

67
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:18,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting. I feel like all three of these

68
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,280
Speaker 4: guys have a legit chance to win. Like I wonder

69
00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:23,119
Speaker 4: if you know, I'd love to see a book put

70
00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,519
Speaker 4: up a rookie parlay and get all three of these

71
00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,200
Speaker 4: guys together and give you a chance.

72
00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:29,840
Speaker 3: I actually think.

73
00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:31,200
Speaker 4: If I had to pick one, I might go with

74
00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:35,120
Speaker 4: Mac Jones, just because I know Miami is the toughest opponent.

75
00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,880
Speaker 4: But I'd rather have New England's roster behind me. I'd

76
00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,920
Speaker 4: rather have Belichick behind me. He's the one starter that

77
00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:42,680
Speaker 4: gets to open at home, which I think is a

78
00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,480
Speaker 4: big deal for a rookie. Yeah, he's He's looked great

79
00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,880
Speaker 4: in the preseason. I think New England will be in

80
00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,640
Speaker 4: a good spot for that one. I like Zach Wilson too,

81
00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,040
Speaker 4: though honestly, I think Lawrence is maybe the one I'm

82
00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,600
Speaker 4: a little most afraid of, just because of urban Meyer

83
00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,280
Speaker 4: is new and the supporting cast and everything. But I'm

84
00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,520
Speaker 4: excited to see these guys. Two rookies that we probably

85
00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,280
Speaker 4: won't see at least not much of this week are

86
00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,240
Speaker 4: the other two first round quarterbacks, Trey Lance and Justin

87
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,040
Speaker 4: the Fields. So let me ask you this week one

88
00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,480
Speaker 4: snaps for Lance in the fields Trey Lance minus two

89
00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,920
Speaker 4: and a half versus justin the fields. Do you think

90
00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:20,520
Speaker 4: either one of these guys sees the field?

91
00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:21,400
Speaker 3: What do you think they're.

92
00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:26,760
Speaker 2: I think if anybody, it's Trey Lance, just because Kyle

93
00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,559
Speaker 2: Shanahan is. He's so creative in terms of putting together

94
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,719
Speaker 2: plays that it wouldn't surprise me if we saw him,

95
00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,440
Speaker 2: you know, come in for you know, a QB sneak

96
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,760
Speaker 2: or you know, a run or something like that. But

97
00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,040
Speaker 2: I just think the Bears are just in such a

98
00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,920
Speaker 2: bad way with their offensive line. I don't think they

99
00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,560
Speaker 2: want to throw Justin Field to the fire. I think

100
00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,600
Speaker 2: Andy dark is gonna come in, He's gonna lose a

101
00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:51,119
Speaker 2: couple of games, and I think they're almost going to

102
00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,240
Speaker 2: be forced to make the change. So I don't see

103
00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,000
Speaker 2: Justin Fields taking the field in this first game.

104
00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I wouldn't be too shocked to come

105
00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,920
Speaker 4: away with just no snaps for either one of these guys.

106
00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,000
Speaker 4: I think Fields is not going to be a guy

107
00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:05,000
Speaker 4: that will come in and play a snap here there,

108
00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,440
Speaker 4: like Trey Lance probably would. But with Lance being out

109
00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,160
Speaker 4: with that finger injury, I just I don't know if

110
00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,320
Speaker 4: he's gonna see that much either. The one thing that

111
00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:15,799
Speaker 4: wouldn't totally shock me, just because I don't really trust

112
00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,240
Speaker 4: what the Bears are doing, is I just feel like

113
00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,960
Speaker 4: there's definitely a scenario where Andy Dalton comes out on

114
00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,320
Speaker 4: Sunday Night football, throws a couple first half interceptions against

115
00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,240
Speaker 4: the Rams, Aaron Donald's all up in his grill, Jalen

116
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,560
Speaker 4: Ramsey picks him off, and Matt Maggie just panics, and

117
00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,440
Speaker 4: a halftime just dumps Dalton and turns this over to

118
00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,240
Speaker 4: Fields and off we go, and that's the end of

119
00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:39,640
Speaker 4: Andy Dalton. I feel like we've seen that before. This

120
00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:42,080
Speaker 4: looks like a prime spot for that where I don't

121
00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,800
Speaker 4: know why Andy Dalton is starting other than just to

122
00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:45,839
Speaker 4: buy a little time.

123
00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,400
Speaker 3: I don't know what he did to win the job there.

124
00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:49,800
Speaker 3: So I'm not sure.

125
00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,240
Speaker 4: I think we're gonna see, certainly Fields as the starter

126
00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,200
Speaker 4: sooner than Lance, but I'm not sure we'll get either

127
00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,760
Speaker 4: of them very much in Week one. So other than

128
00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,960
Speaker 4: those rookies, what are you just most excited to watch

129
00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:03,800
Speaker 4: in the Week one? Is there a game or a

130
00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:05,200
Speaker 4: player or something like that your eye?

131
00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,800
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a number of different things that I'm

132
00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:10,000
Speaker 2: excited about. I mean, first things, first, we got fans

133
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:11,839
Speaker 2: in the stadium. I mean, we know home field advantage

134
00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,960
Speaker 2: has been decreasing every year since two thousand and six.

135
00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,320
Speaker 2: Since twenty sixteen has really been noticeable. I mean I've

136
00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:21,400
Speaker 2: seen it go from like pretty much three points, so

137
00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,160
Speaker 2: almost a half a point. So I'm interested to see

138
00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,400
Speaker 2: if the fans in the stadium is really going to

139
00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,840
Speaker 2: have an impact. I'm also interested in seeing how the

140
00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:33,600
Speaker 2: officiating is going to impact things. I mean, last year,

141
00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,680
Speaker 2: offensive holeen penalties were down. Last season. We saw four

142
00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,640
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty two call in twenty twenty average of

143
00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,320
Speaker 2: one point eight a game compared to seven hundred and

144
00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:46,040
Speaker 2: twenty four in twenty nineteen and seven hundred and eight

145
00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,200
Speaker 2: and two thousand and eight. And I think that's a

146
00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,279
Speaker 2: big thing towards over unders. We're here to make money,

147
00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,919
Speaker 2: we're here to bet, so if they're not calling offensive

148
00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,279
Speaker 2: hold penalties. I mean, you guys watched the Super Bowl

149
00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:58,880
Speaker 2: between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco forty

150
00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,120
Speaker 2: nine ers. I think one of the reasons why the

151
00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,920
Speaker 2: Chiefs won that Super Bowls because they just didn't call

152
00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:08,000
Speaker 2: the whole penalties that were there, So I'm excited about

153
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,840
Speaker 2: seeing that. I'm excited to see Zach Wilson in the

154
00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:14,960
Speaker 2: Jets offense, the Bikers revaned defense. Can Sam Darnold actually

155
00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,920
Speaker 2: have a resurgence in Carolina? What is Sewing Payton gonna

156
00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,120
Speaker 2: do with Jameis Winston. I mean, I know this guy's

157
00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,800
Speaker 2: got Lasik surgery, so I mean, hopefully we don't see

158
00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,480
Speaker 2: another thirty interception season again, but I think you should

159
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,440
Speaker 2: be improved. I just think there's so many storylines to

160
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:31,160
Speaker 2: be excited about.

161
00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:31,680
Speaker 1: How about you.

162
00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm excited for the storylines. The other thing that

163
00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:37,320
Speaker 4: I forgot about that it was happening until he was

164
00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,760
Speaker 4: on a podcast the other day. We get Peyton Manning

165
00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,480
Speaker 4: back in Our Lives on Monday Night. Not every week,

166
00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:46,280
Speaker 4: but we're getting that alternative broadcast Peyton Manning and baby

167
00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,360
Speaker 4: Brell Elisha in the booth. Well not even in the booth.

168
00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:51,280
Speaker 4: I think they're like doing a zoom recording or something.

169
00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:54,000
Speaker 4: But we get Peyton and Eli breaking down Monday night

170
00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,720
Speaker 4: football for us. So I'm excited for that, just to

171
00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:58,920
Speaker 4: try something new. Maybe we'll get a little Tony Romo

172
00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,880
Speaker 4: effect there, get some insights on the game. I think

173
00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,960
Speaker 4: the Browns Chiefs game is just a huge, huge Week

174
00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,520
Speaker 4: one game. I think Cleveland matches up well. Although I

175
00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,240
Speaker 4: always thinking about Baltimore with Kansas City as well. It's

176
00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:13,640
Speaker 4: never worked out for me, but I think that's one

177
00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,440
Speaker 4: that is going to have seeding implications and looks like

178
00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,080
Speaker 4: a future playoff game.

179
00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:20,000
Speaker 3: So I'm looking forward to that, I think.

180
00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,920
Speaker 4: And then I think just too Thursday night the first

181
00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:27,280
Speaker 4: game the Super Bowl Champs, Dak Prescott back on the field,

182
00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,240
Speaker 4: So let's talk about that one. Let's hit a few

183
00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:33,120
Speaker 4: of the big line moves. So Dallas is in Tampa

184
00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:35,240
Speaker 4: Bay to start the season. We know the Champs always

185
00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,800
Speaker 4: get to host the first one on Thursday night. And

186
00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,839
Speaker 4: right now that line is up to Tampa by seven

187
00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,280
Speaker 4: and a half and that has crossed that key number

188
00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,319
Speaker 4: of seven. It opened closer to six and a half

189
00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:47,400
Speaker 4: and that number looks like it's still rising a little bit.

190
00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,400
Speaker 4: So Rahim, I know you're good at watching the line movement.

191
00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,400
Speaker 4: What do you make of the line move and what's

192
00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:53,440
Speaker 4: happening with this game?

193
00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,080
Speaker 2: I mean, first thing is first, Zach Martin is out.

194
00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:00,120
Speaker 2: He got placed on the COVID on nineteen reserve and

195
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,640
Speaker 2: that's a big loss for the offensive line. I do

196
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:07,440
Speaker 2: think the Cowboys offensive line should be solid. Lalel Collins,

197
00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,080
Speaker 2: he has a stinger. I mean, he's supposed to play,

198
00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,880
Speaker 2: but those injuries are notorious for flaring up and them

199
00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:15,840
Speaker 2: having problems. And then I mean, you have the Super

200
00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:20,120
Speaker 2: Bowl Champions at home against you know, a Cowboys team

201
00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,080
Speaker 2: in which Dak hasn't played like since Week five of

202
00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,880
Speaker 2: last year. You know, he had the leg injury. Then

203
00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,400
Speaker 2: he's out all training camp with the shoulder injury. So

204
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,199
Speaker 2: we just don't know what we're gonna get from him.

205
00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:32,960
Speaker 2: And I mean, you're missing your best got on offensive

206
00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,600
Speaker 2: line and Zach Martin. It's a problem. But I also

207
00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,839
Speaker 2: think you know, one of the things you're you're seeing

208
00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,360
Speaker 2: is that you're gonna you're gonna have some teaser protection here.

209
00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,480
Speaker 2: The Bucks minus six and a half seven and a

210
00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:47,200
Speaker 2: half is gonna be in every single Stanford Wine teaser.

211
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,200
Speaker 2: And I think you're gonna see it rise because I

212
00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,760
Speaker 2: mean you kind of wanna, you would the books want

213
00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:54,360
Speaker 2: to have some teaser protection on there. But also the

214
00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:57,360
Speaker 2: public's gonna be all over the Bucks circa as I mean,

215
00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,439
Speaker 2: just as you said something about the line movement just

216
00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,000
Speaker 2: went from seven and a half to eight, So I

217
00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:07,720
Speaker 2: mean exactly at around five fifteen, as recorded as podcast,

218
00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:08,920
Speaker 2: they literally just move.

219
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,000
Speaker 1: So I think you're going to see that movie.

220
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,320
Speaker 2: It wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me if we saw this

221
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:14,800
Speaker 2: thing hit eight and a half nine.

222
00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,120
Speaker 4: So I don't do a lot of teasers. So tell

223
00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,200
Speaker 4: me a little bit more about that. When you say

224
00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:21,920
Speaker 4: that we're gonna get some teaser protection in there, what

225
00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,120
Speaker 4: sort of number are the books hoping to get this

226
00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:25,959
Speaker 4: to to give themselves a little edge?

227
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:26,200
Speaker 1: There?

228
00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:27,559
Speaker 3: Is that the nine they're looking for?

229
00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,079
Speaker 2: I mean, I think, I mean, you're not going to

230
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,320
Speaker 2: have it move too far because I think at some

231
00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,120
Speaker 2: point you're going to have why Scott step in and

232
00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 2: you don't want to lead yourself open to towards a myth,

233
00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:41,839
Speaker 2: you know, see what I'm saying, because I think that's

234
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,120
Speaker 2: that's a bad thing. But I think you know, some

235
00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:49,040
Speaker 2: of these higher spreads, if you look at San Francisco

236
00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:52,600
Speaker 2: versus the Lions, or you look at the Rams versus

237
00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:55,160
Speaker 2: the Bears, a lot of times you want to get

238
00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,840
Speaker 2: that to you know, nine and a half ten, because

239
00:10:58,880 --> 00:10:59,199
Speaker 2: at some.

240
00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,920
Speaker 1: Point it's just you can't really tease down and get

241
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:02,840
Speaker 1: it through a fielble.

242
00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:04,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, that make six points.

243
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,280
Speaker 1: So it's just like you start to see that teaser

244
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:08,280
Speaker 1: protection on some of.

245
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,520
Speaker 2: These bigger spreads. I don't know if you guys are

246
00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:14,160
Speaker 2: familiar with the rules, but stand for want. He wrote

247
00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,480
Speaker 2: a book in two thousand and nine, car Sharp Sporting

248
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,440
Speaker 2: Sports Betting, and it talks about how you need how

249
00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:23,079
Speaker 2: you tease certain teams. So you're looking for home favorites

250
00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,360
Speaker 2: of seven and a half down to two and a half,

251
00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:30,360
Speaker 2: you're looking for role favorites of one to three, you

252
00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,280
Speaker 2: want to tease that up, and you're looking for totals

253
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,840
Speaker 2: under forty nine. So I just just basic rules on

254
00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,840
Speaker 2: how you tease and get positive expected value.

255
00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:41,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense.

256
00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,520
Speaker 4: And I think too the Zach Martin injury, the Lyle

257
00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:47,680
Speaker 4: Collins thing. The thing that that's reminding me of just

258
00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,280
Speaker 4: a little bit is heading into that Super Bowl last year,

259
00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,199
Speaker 4: when we had this explosive offense with all their weapons,

260
00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,079
Speaker 4: and I was like, hey, you know, though, be careful,

261
00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,560
Speaker 4: the Chiefs do have some of these injuries on their

262
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,960
Speaker 4: offense line. You know, that is the thing to watch for.

263
00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,760
Speaker 4: And suddenly the game started and that was the only

264
00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:08,080
Speaker 4: story to watch for that line didn't hold up, and

265
00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,680
Speaker 4: Mahomes wasn't Mahomes when he'd now the line protecting him,

266
00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,520
Speaker 4: And it's just like, now here's the season, you know,

267
00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,560
Speaker 4: the whole whatever. Seven eight months later and we're right

268
00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,840
Speaker 4: back to Well, that Dallas offense is pretty good, but

269
00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:21,199
Speaker 4: careful with that line.

270
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,360
Speaker 3: They might be missing a couple of key guys there.

271
00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:25,360
Speaker 2: I think the one thing we have to stress is

272
00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,560
Speaker 2: that this Cowboys line, even with the absence of Zach Martin,

273
00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:30,440
Speaker 2: it's not going to be nearly as bad as what

274
00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:31,560
Speaker 2: we saw from Kansas City.

275
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:33,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I think they were a total mess.

276
00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:34,920
Speaker 2: So it's like, even though they're going to be taking

277
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,400
Speaker 2: a step back, it's not going to be Dak Prescott

278
00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 2: unable to operate.

279
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure, it's definitely not the same, but it

280
00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:45,560
Speaker 4: is dangerous against Tampa with all their pass rushers. All right,

281
00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:47,320
Speaker 4: let's move on to the one that I think has

282
00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:51,840
Speaker 4: moved the most so far. So we got Seattle visiting Indianapolis,

283
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,240
Speaker 4: and boy, these Colts are impossible to get a handle on.

284
00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,440
Speaker 4: So way back when we first got lines, the Colts

285
00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,319
Speaker 4: opened US two and a half point in fais Seattle

286
00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,120
Speaker 4: is now a two and a half point favorite, so

287
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:07,320
Speaker 4: that's a five point swing. Carson Wentz is injured, Carson

288
00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:11,200
Speaker 4: Wentz's back, Carson Wentz is in COVID protocol and back again.

289
00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,600
Speaker 4: We've got injuries to the left tackle, the left guard,

290
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:18,120
Speaker 4: the center. They're all back again or not the left tackle,

291
00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:19,840
Speaker 4: but Quentin Nelson is supposed to be playing.

292
00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:23,320
Speaker 3: Ryan Kelly is back. What is happening with us?

293
00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,560
Speaker 4: And how significant is that that that line moved five

294
00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:27,920
Speaker 4: whole points on us?

295
00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,000
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's a very significant move.

296
00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:33,600
Speaker 2: Carson Wentz He's had more turnovers than just about anybody

297
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,840
Speaker 2: in the NFL the last couple of seasons. He's unvaccinated,

298
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,800
Speaker 2: so he's missed the majority of practice. I mean, he

299
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,760
Speaker 2: had that foot injury, so that's that's a big part

300
00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,079
Speaker 2: of why the line moves happened. But I think you're

301
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:50,160
Speaker 2: seeing being pushed further because the offensive line is that mess.

302
00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:54,480
Speaker 2: Anthony Costan's O retired, like you mentioned, Eric Fisher is

303
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,800
Speaker 2: coming off this Achilles injury. He might not play it

304
00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:01,280
Speaker 2: so October you already mentioned Quenton Nelson. I just I

305
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,920
Speaker 2: just think they're really in a bad way in general,

306
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,959
Speaker 2: and the Colts. I mean they're starting the season against

307
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,240
Speaker 2: the Seahawks, rams the tightest, the Dolphins, the Ravens. I mean,

308
00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,319
Speaker 2: it's the team that realistically could start zero and five.

309
00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:15,400
Speaker 2: So I just think the market is really down on

310
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,640
Speaker 2: them for good reason. And then you're playing a top

311
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:23,160
Speaker 2: five quarterback and Russell Wilson, he has weapons around him.

312
00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:26,640
Speaker 2: So it's hard to you know, when this line opened

313
00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:28,440
Speaker 2: at at two and a half, it's kind of hard

314
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,520
Speaker 2: to suggest taken it at two and a half, but

315
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 2: it's hard not to see value.

316
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,760
Speaker 1: In it based on the way their preseason has gone.

317
00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,760
Speaker 4: So yeah, the thing with Seattle too is we know

318
00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:40,440
Speaker 4: what happens with the Seahawks.

319
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:42,400
Speaker 3: They just play, you.

320
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,600
Speaker 4: Know, they play around, they play with their food and

321
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:46,880
Speaker 4: wait till there's like ten minutes left and it's tied,

322
00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,480
Speaker 4: and then like, okay, Russell Wilson go in the game now.

323
00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,880
Speaker 4: And I just got to say, like, Carson Wentz is

324
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,680
Speaker 4: my guy. But if it's a close game late and

325
00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,240
Speaker 4: this one, I don't really care if it's in Indianapolis

326
00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,000
Speaker 4: or not. If it's close late, I want Russell Wilson,

327
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 4: not the guy on a new team that hasn't a

328
00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,360
Speaker 4: practice that hasn't had time to get some chemistry with

329
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,640
Speaker 4: his line, with his receivers. I want Russ out there,

330
00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,520
Speaker 4: and if you want Russ, you only have to win

331
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:14,520
Speaker 4: by a field goal. And that's kind of what Seattle

332
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,520
Speaker 4: tends to do. They pull out all these close wins,

333
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,760
Speaker 4: so that one is definitely tempting. Another one that has moved,

334
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 4: quite literally is Green Bay and New Orleans. This is

335
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,240
Speaker 4: a home game for New Orleans, but it is no

336
00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,680
Speaker 4: longer a home game at the Superdome because of the hurricane.

337
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 4: This game has moved to Jacksonville. So this line depending

338
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,600
Speaker 4: on where you look at BETMGM. It's minus three right now,

339
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,560
Speaker 4: but I'm seeing it at four four and a half

340
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:41,560
Speaker 4: At some books. It was two and a half for

341
00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,080
Speaker 4: green Bay, and it's just kind of slowly creeping up.

342
00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 4: So you talked a little bit about home field. What

343
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,400
Speaker 4: do you make of the home field change on this one.

344
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 1: I think the market is accurately price in this.

345
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,760
Speaker 2: I mean when I look at home field advantage, I

346
00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 2: mean in twenty twenty, I had it at point five,

347
00:15:58,000 --> 00:15:59,280
Speaker 2: pretty much at half a point.

348
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,680
Speaker 1: Well, when I separate for each stadium.

349
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:04,640
Speaker 2: And I'm looking at the super super Dome, over the

350
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:08,600
Speaker 2: last ten seasons, I have home for advantage for the

351
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:12,560
Speaker 2: Saints hit about two points, So I think the move

352
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,760
Speaker 2: from two and a half to four is pretty awkward

353
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,680
Speaker 2: to there were some four and a half's in the market.

354
00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:19,480
Speaker 2: I think this is this is an accurate line move.

355
00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 2: I think, I mean, the Saints are just dealing with

356
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,840
Speaker 2: so much. They lost some pieces on defense. Trey Henderson,

357
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,640
Speaker 2: he left a free agency, Kim Jordan's getting older. They're

358
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:33,120
Speaker 2: highly reliant on Malvelm Jenkins, Marshawn Lattimore. He had a

359
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 2: spark when he started, but I don't want to say

360
00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,120
Speaker 2: he's garbage, but he's not for what we thought he

361
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:38,720
Speaker 2: was going to be.

362
00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:39,840
Speaker 1: After his rookie season.

363
00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:44,080
Speaker 2: And they're playing a prolific Packers offense that just was dominant.

364
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,200
Speaker 1: Here is to be the last dance for Aaron.

365
00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 2: Rodgers, So I think this line is accurately priced. I

366
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,600
Speaker 2: don't really see edge, you know, based on the numbers,

367
00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,440
Speaker 2: but it's tough not to see New Orleans in a

368
00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,280
Speaker 2: tough way. I mean, no Michael Thomas. They're relying on,

369
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 2: you know, younger guys. We'll see what happened happens with

370
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,080
Speaker 2: Jane It's gonna be an interesting game.

371
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:06,399
Speaker 4: So let me ask you this about your your model

372
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,400
Speaker 4: with the home field advantage. So you said you've got

373
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,680
Speaker 4: it from last season, it's only worth about a half

374
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 4: a point in there. Now, how much do you think

375
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 4: that that the pandemic factors are weighing in on that?

376
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 4: Then you know, the changed crowds and just a lot

377
00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,159
Speaker 4: of those things. Is home field just dwindling dwindling? Like

378
00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,120
Speaker 4: half a point is almost nothing? I feel like traditionally

379
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 4: rare almost expecting you know, we're expecting books to price

380
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 4: in two or three points on this. So is the

381
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,960
Speaker 4: half a point thing just because home field is not

382
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,640
Speaker 4: worth much anymore? Or is the pandemic playing a role

383
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:37,960
Speaker 4: in there?

384
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 1: I think home field is just not worth much at all.

385
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,400
Speaker 2: I mean, there was a lot more home cooking previously,

386
00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,920
Speaker 2: and I think, you know, officiating has gotten away from

387
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,840
Speaker 2: that in all sports. I think to traveling has gotten

388
00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:51,800
Speaker 2: better to make, like in every single sport you're seeing.

389
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,680
Speaker 2: So it's just it's not even something that I'm truly

390
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,879
Speaker 2: pricing in. If you go to Denver, you have to

391
00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,240
Speaker 2: price it in obviously because there's some altitude issues things

392
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 2: like that. And then I like to look at I mean,

393
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,320
Speaker 2: obviously looking at individual stadiums, it's pretty interesting.

394
00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 1: But when you look at even the.

395
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 2: Year before the pandemic, road teams were one hundred and

396
00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 2: forty and one, one o six and ten against the spread. Wow,

397
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:23,399
Speaker 2: they were also one twenty one, twenty five, one thirty

398
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,120
Speaker 2: five and one straight up.

399
00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:27,240
Speaker 1: So it's just like home home.

400
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,720
Speaker 2: Foot advantage is I mean, it's it's, it's it's nothing

401
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,880
Speaker 2: now like it's I mean, it's it's it's it's shocking,

402
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 2: I mean, but it's not surprising based on you know,

403
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 2: all the officiating factors and the travel factors that we've seen.

404
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think it makes sense too with these

405
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:47,120
Speaker 4: you know, so many stadiums now are these giant, sprawling stadiums.

406
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 4: And you know, when you read like score Casting some

407
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,119
Speaker 4: of these other books that have really studied home field

408
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,440
Speaker 4: over the years, you find that what the real home

409
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 4: field advantage is that the crowd noise and the weighing

410
00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,400
Speaker 4: on the officials to get the calls in the right way.

411
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 4: And I think now like the ticket prices I've gone up,

412
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 4: and like the game experience has driven away. I think

413
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 4: some of those diehard fans because they can't afford the tickets.

414
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 4: They're not sitting quite as close anymore. Just the entire

415
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,359
Speaker 4: experience is a little bit. It's different, it's changed over

416
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,600
Speaker 4: the years, and I think that that's taking away some

417
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:22,880
Speaker 4: of that advantage there. So I'm sure that's a thing

418
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 4: that we will keep talking about throughout the year. A

419
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,160
Speaker 4: couple of the other line changes here, just to note,

420
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 4: the New England and Miami game has moved, and both

421
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 4: both cases the total is dropping from forty five and

422
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 4: a half down to forty three and a half. The

423
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 4: line is increasing, and that's interesting with Mac Jones playing now,

424
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 4: so that has gone from minus one to minus three

425
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 4: right now at MGM, still two and a half at

426
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 4: some books. So what do you make of either of

427
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:51,119
Speaker 4: those line swings?

428
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,199
Speaker 2: On that one, I mean a lot of people are

429
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,360
Speaker 2: down on Miami this year. I mean, obviously they had

430
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 2: that huge turnover differential. It felt like every single week

431
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,919
Speaker 2: they were scoring touchdowns just based on turnovers. So I think,

432
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 2: I mean, there's some sharp money on New England on

433
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 2: the over and to make the playoffs, So I think,

434
00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:09,439
Speaker 2: you know, some of that has a lot to do

435
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 2: with New England. We just got some news today that

436
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 2: Dolphins left tackle Austin Jackson is on the cold reserve list,

437
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 2: and he looked pretty rough, to say the least. But

438
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,920
Speaker 2: now you have his backup going against josh Ousha. It's

439
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 2: tough to feel great about this offensive line against this

440
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 2: revamped Patriots defense. And then I think when you have

441
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback, it's obvious to see why this total

442
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 2: has dropped down from forty five and a half to

443
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:38,640
Speaker 2: forty three and a half. And I think the Patriots defense,

444
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 2: I mean, they've they've proven it, they're gonna be a

445
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 2: tough They're gonna be tough this season.

446
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,360
Speaker 1: So a lot of us aren't really high on Tour.

447
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 2: And it remains Besteen if he's really the franchise quarterback

448
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 2: that they hope he can be. So I understand why

449
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 2: this total is dropping down. As far as grabbing it

450
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 2: before it hit the three, I think the lines pretty

451
00:20:58,040 --> 00:20:58,679
Speaker 2: like spot on.

452
00:20:58,760 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 1: What do you think?

453
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's interesting that both of those lines

454
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,359
Speaker 4: move together because I think what the books are telling

455
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,120
Speaker 4: us is that the Patriots are going to win by

456
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 4: two more points than we said before, but the game

457
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 4: is going to be two less points than overall. So

458
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 4: I think it's actually not necessarily that Mac Jones has

459
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 4: moved the line. I think it's that Miami is dropping

460
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 4: a little bit, that they're taking those two points off

461
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 4: of Miami's total, And that makes sense because the Dolphins

462
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:30,199
Speaker 4: already don't have a stable offensive line that's already and

463
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,679
Speaker 4: not an area of strength for the team, and so

464
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 4: if you take away Austin Jackson on top of that,

465
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 4: and there's just not a lot of blocking there. And yeah,

466
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 4: I like New England's defense. They have revamped things. This

467
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 4: is not last year's team that was one of those

468
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 4: defenses that lost a lot to COVID, and so they've

469
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 4: got some names back this year. I think they're gonna

470
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 4: be a lot better. So to me, I do like

471
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 4: this one a lot. I'm writing about this game this

472
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 4: week at Action Network and I will be looking to

473
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 4: grab New England if I can, if I find it

474
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 4: at two and a half somewhere, if it drops back down,

475
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 4: I definitely want to get that before the hook because

476
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 4: I think it's a nice spot for the Patriots against

477
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 4: the team that both of you and I just really

478
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 4: don't believe in Miami. So I think that's one to watch.

479
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 4: Do you have any other line movements to note before

480
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 4: we move on here.

481
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I think.

482
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 2: I mean the big one is the Broncos minus one

483
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 2: to Broncos two and a half minus three. I think

484
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 2: that's a huge one because I think that's one that

485
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: we both agree on. We've spoke about how we like

486
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,959
Speaker 2: the Broncos this year. I mean they're getting guys back

487
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 2: from injury. I mean they don't have to deal with

488
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 2: Drew Locke throwing sixteen touchdowns to fifteen interceptions this year.

489
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 2: So I think you have a solid Broncos defense even

490
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 2: though they're on a road. They're facing a giant scene

491
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 2: that really doesn't have a go offensive line, So I

492
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 2: agree with that line move. I think the other one

493
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 2: is this was a pick that I've been giving out

494
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 2: on radio shows all over Jets Panthers over forty three

495
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 2: and a half. It's up to forty five and a half.

496
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 2: I've mentioned how much I like Zach Wilson in the

497
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,159
Speaker 2: Jets offense, and I think, I mean Matt Rule and

498
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: the Panthers have proven that they're gonna have a decent

499
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: offense even with Sam Darnold. The other line move that

500
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 2: I don't agree with is the Chargers pick them to

501
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 2: charges minus one. I like the Washington football team. I

502
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 2: think they're gonna win that game outright. I also think

503
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 2: that's that's a line that you want to add in

504
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 2: six point teasers, Stanford Wong teasers. You get a chance

505
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 2: read the book Stanford Wong Sharp Sports Betting.

506
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: They're catching one right now.

507
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 2: You definitely want to tease that through the key number

508
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 2: of seven, and you want to take that.

509
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: So I disagree with that line move.

510
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, So that's another spot where watching for that number

511
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 4: is really important because you know, that's such a good insight.

512
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 4: Because I had to pick up versus A minus one.

513
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 4: I was like, well, it's not even that much of

514
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 4: a swing. But when you get to that key number

515
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 4: on a teaser and now suddenly you can get out

516
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 4: on a touchdown at minus seven rather than that six

517
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 4: before six and a half, that's a big difference there.

518
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 4: It gives you a lot of extra protection. So that

519
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 4: is definitely a good one to watch. All right, we're here.

520
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 4: That is enough with our week one lines already, because

521
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 4: you know what, I can't wait for Week two. We

522
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 4: promise you something that you won't find anywhere else on

523
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 4: this podcast, and that brings us to our next statement

524
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 4: that we're going to call the hot read so as

525
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 4: better as it is important that we're aways trying to

526
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 4: stay a step ahead of the public. So that's what

527
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 4: we're trying to do with the hot Read. Well, everyone

528
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 4: else is looking at what's right in front of them.

529
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 4: We are trying to take the longer view here. So

530
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 4: normally when we are with you on Monday mornings, that

531
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 4: means that we will be already betting on next Sunday's games. Well,

532
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 4: everyone else is still thinking about the day before and

533
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 4: all the bad beats that they're still crying about into

534
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 4: their coffee. We're looking to make some money on the

535
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 4: next week. So today we're taking a step further. Everyone's

536
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 4: excited for Week one. We've been analyzed these matchups for

537
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,959
Speaker 4: months already. We're gonna skip over week one and go

538
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,640
Speaker 4: right ahead to week two. Rahim tell the people why

539
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 4: betters love NFL Week two.

540
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 2: I mean I wouldn't say the betters love in NFL

541
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: Week two. I think the book makers love NFL Week

542
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 2: two because it's.

543
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: It's it's the week where everybody overreacts to the first

544
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: thing that they saw all year and week one. I

545
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 1: mean it's overreaction week.

546
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 2: It's one of the most if you're a professional better

547
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 2: or you're a sports book, it's one of the most

548
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 2: profitable weeks for you. So we're gonna try to break

549
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 2: down the lines that we like in advance.

550
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you look around, you can find the lines

551
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 4: for week two. You can already be playing these games,

552
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 4: even though the lines are definitely gonna shift a lot

553
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 4: because we're about to get a bunch of new data

554
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 4: on these teams. So we just wanted to run through

555
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 4: today a few lines that we are already playing for

556
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 4: Week two. We're gonna win you some week two money

557
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 4: before we even start the season. So let's start with

558
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 4: one that both of us love.

559
00:25:59,280 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 3: That is done.

560
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 4: We're at Jacksonville right now. Denver is a two and

561
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 4: a half point favorite, and both of us are all

562
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 4: over that one. So here's what I think about that game.

563
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 4: I think Denver is gonna beat the Giants this weekend.

564
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 4: The Giants aren't very good. Denver has what looks like

565
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 4: maybe the best defense in football, the Jaguars not loving them.

566
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 4: The Jaguars have every chance to lose to the Houston

567
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 4: Texans this weekend. They're on the road in Houston. They're

568
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 4: playing against who Tarad Taylor is the better quarterback than

569
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence right now while he's healthy, and he's healthy

570
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 4: for this one. And I gotta say, if Houston beats Jacksonville,

571
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 4: Jacksonville is just going to drop out and this number

572
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 4: is going to go up. We're at two and a half,

573
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 4: so that's going to cross that key number right away.

574
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 4: I love Denver on this one.

575
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 3: Do you like it too?

576
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 5: Oh?

577
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 2: I absolutely love it. I mean we spoke about the

578
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 2: Denver defense so many times. I mean, it's Jacksonville team.

579
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 2: I truly believe that Urban Myers in over his hey

580
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 2: and against it. I mean, solid defense with Denver. A

581
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback is not really going to be able to

582
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 2: handle that. So I think at two and a half

583
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 2: you get into Barton.

584
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

585
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 4: So my other next favorite play here. I'm gonna go

586
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 4: another one because it's very similar. So we had Buffalo

587
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 4: at Miami, very same sort of thing. Buffalo is a

588
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 4: two and a half point favorite. And again I like

589
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 4: the Bills here and I want to grab them before

590
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 4: that line moves. We talked about Miami. I'm not in

591
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 4: on Miami. I don't think they're gonna be good. I

592
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 4: think that they could lose and not even look very competitive.

593
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 4: Maybe against the Patriots. The Bills are facing the Steelers,

594
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 4: a team that I don't think is that good, but

595
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 4: I think the public thinks is good. And the Bills

596
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 4: are a team that could run up the score a

597
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 4: little bit, maybe on what's considered a vaunted defense. And

598
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 4: if they do, I could see us coming out of

599
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 4: this week and everyone's saying, man, the Bills might be

600
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 4: the team to beat in the AFCT.

601
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 3: We got to boost this number a little bit. So

602
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 3: similar logic there.

603
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 4: I like the road team Buffalo before that line moves

604
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 4: past three as well.

605
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 3: What do you think about that one?

606
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 5: Oh?

607
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely like that.

608
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: I mean, Buffalo is supposed to be the cream and

609
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: the crop in the AFC, and we're both down on Miami,

610
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 2: especially with the turnover differential last year.

611
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:12,640
Speaker 1: So I agree with that one.

612
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 3: All right. Well, give me a couple of year like

613
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 3: from week two.

614
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 2: I mean, the first one that jumps out to me

615
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 2: is Green Bay minus ten at home against Detroit on

616
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 2: Monday Night football.

617
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 1: I mean, this is grossly mispriced.

618
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,120
Speaker 2: I mean we've spoken all off season that there's gonna

619
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: be two really really bad teams in the NFL this year.

620
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: It's the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions. I think

621
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 2: this line is short. I think we should see this

622
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 2: going up to about thirteen points or so. So at ten,

623
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 2: I think you grabbed that now and you have a bargain.

624
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: The other one that really really stands out to me

625
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 2: is the Cowboys Chargers over fifty and a half. I

626
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 2: make this line fifty five and a half. Ironically, both

627
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 2: of these teams are playing teams that are great defenses

628
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 2: in week one. I mean you got the the Cowboys

629
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 2: headed up against the Bucks first week of Dak's return,

630
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 2: and then you have the Chargers playing the Washington football team.

631
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: He has one of the better offensive lines. I think

632
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 2: this line is way too high. That's a shootout waiting

633
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 2: to happen. I think the other one that I think

634
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 2: we both agreed on was the Rams and the Colts.

635
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: I think the Colts.

636
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,239
Speaker 2: I mean we mentioned the Colts promised earlier on, but

637
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 2: I think the Colts could really, you know, go into

638
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 2: this season. It went surprising if they start off oh

639
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 2: to five. So laying at two and a half is

640
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 2: good there.

641
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely like that one.

642
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 4: The other one I'm looking to grab, if for no

643
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 4: other reason than just to get a little action in

644
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 4: some reason to actually want to watch this game. I

645
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 4: think we're gonna get a Thursday night stinker right out

646
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 4: of the gates. We love our Thursday night stinkers. We

647
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 4: got the New York Giants traveling to Washington, and I

648
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 4: just don't think we're gonna see much scoring in that one.

649
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 4: You can get that one. The under at forty six

650
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 4: and a half I'm seeing in some places, and I

651
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 4: think this is a game that could end up being like,

652
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 4: I don't know, like seventeen to fourteen or something like.

653
00:29:58,200 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 4: I think touchdowns gonna be very hard to come b.

654
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 4: I hear Washington's defense is very good. The Giants definitely

655
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 4: are not an offense that I trust, but I do

656
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 4: like the defense. I like what's happening there. I just

657
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 4: think that we're not going to get out of scoring.

658
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 4: This is right out of the gates. You get a

659
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 4: first game and then three days off, and immediately you

660
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 4: got to go again. No time to learn, no time

661
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 4: to adjust all those early things that you have figured

662
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 4: out from the first game. I just feel like that's

663
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 4: it's going to be one of those games that you know,

664
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 4: halfway through the third quarter it's like nine to six

665
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 4: and everyone's tweeting of like, oh my god, why do

666
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 4: they put the worst games every time on Thursday? I

667
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 4: just feel like that has that written all over it.

668
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 4: What do you think of that one?

669
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I definitely agree. I mean, the Giants have

670
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 2: a solid defense. They don't have a great offensive line,

671
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: so I'm not mad at that at all. And in

672
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 2: the Washington football team, their defense is going to dominate,

673
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 2: so they have one of the best front steps sevens

674
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 2: in the league.

675
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 4: So the other hot reads that I'm looking to make,

676
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 4: you can't actually play these yet, but I want to

677
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 4: be ready and I want you to be ready to

678
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 4: play them. So two angles here. The first angle is

679
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 4: this the Jaguars and the Texans play each other, and

680
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 4: that means one of them has to win, and this

681
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 4: might be maybe, you know, one of the most winnable

682
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 4: games both of these teams are gonna face all season.

683
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 4: We have said plenty about both of these trash can

684
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 4: rosters of teams. They're not good. But the AFC South

685
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 4: is also not good. We don't believe in the Colts,

686
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 4: we don't believe in the Titans. Somebody has to win

687
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 4: the division. So here's my angle. Someone has to win

688
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,959
Speaker 4: Jacksonville and Houston. That means that the other team lost

689
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 4: to Jacksonville or Houston, and that is going to make

690
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 4: people just sour on them and hurry. I'm looking to

691
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 4: take a little little nibble, just a little taste. Whoever

692
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 4: loses that game. Give me the division odds, Just give me,

693
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 4: give me a long number. They're zero to one. They

694
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 4: just lost to a team that everyone thinks is one

695
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 4: of the worst.

696
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 3: In the league.

697
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 4: Just give me a little nibble to see what happens

698
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 4: in that division, because i don't trust anyone else, and

699
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 4: I'm not that daunted by lost because there's gonna be

700
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 4: a lot of losses in that division this year. So

701
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 4: that's one of future that I'm gonna be keeping an

702
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 4: eye on. And I'm really just gonna have to take

703
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 4: a blind shot there because I'm not going to feel

704
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 4: good about either one of those teams there. It's it's

705
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 4: not a bet on them, it's a bet against the

706
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 4: AFC South. The one that I do like that I

707
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 4: will feel good about. I think the Chiefs and the

708
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 4: Browns I talked about that one earlier. Part of why

709
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 4: I'm not looking to bet either of them for the

710
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 4: Super Bowl too heavily yet is because one of them

711
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,479
Speaker 4: is about to lose in Week one, and inevitably their

712
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 4: odds are going to drop a little bit. Cleveland especially,

713
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 4: We're going to come back to that. This might be

714
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 4: a Browns podcast this year. But if Cleveland doesn't win

715
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 4: that one and the Browns have a rough Week one history,

716
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 4: let's be fair, they have a rough everything history, but

717
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 4: Week one essentially has not treated them well. And if

718
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 4: they come out and just lay a stinker and just

719
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 4: look terrible, those odds are going to bottom out. And

720
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 4: I don't really care about Week one. I don't care

721
00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 4: if you're going to lose that game. We're playing the

722
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 4: long here. One of those teams is gonna lose a

723
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 4: perfectly fine loss. It's probably the best loss they'll have

724
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 4: all season. And I want to play the Super Bowl odds.

725
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 4: I want to see what happens. Someone's going to overreact

726
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 4: to that line and we're gonna get a good price

727
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 4: on that. So those are the two futures that I'm

728
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 4: already like, I'm waiting for the line to reopen again

729
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 4: once we get past that. So what do you think

730
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 4: about either one of those future players.

731
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 1: I'm not mad it.

732
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 2: I mean, for me, I think that the it's tough

733
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 2: because I'm want those people to where I'll try to

734
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 2: actually predict what's gonna happen before I make my future bet.

735
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 2: So I kind of think the Browns are live dogs,

736
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 2: so I kind of want to get them. I kind

737
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 2: of want to get some in on them right now

738
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 2: because if, of course, if they win, You're never going

739
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 2: to see any value in the Browns at all for

740
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: the rest of right sure, so I think you maybe

741
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: you want to put in, you know, a small bet

742
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 2: on the Browns now and then if they lose, you

743
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 2: add more so because it's just all it takes is

744
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 2: one event to change everything. So I do think you

745
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 2: want to be cognizant of that. But I do think

746
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 2: you have a vialid point. You know, you're playing the

747
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 2: loser of one of those games for this because I

748
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: think those are probably two of the best teams in

749
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 2: the ASC.

750
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so.

751
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 4: And we're going to talk more about the Browns and

752
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 4: our last segment today.

753
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 5: So this is Action Network podcast producer Matt Mitchell here

754
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 5: to tell you Our friends at bet mgm have a

755
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 5: great news sign up offer for our listeners, a six

756
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 5: one hundred dollars risk free first bet.

757
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:32,760
Speaker 1: Here's how it works.

758
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 5: If you don't already have an account at bet mgm,

759
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 5: just sign up, make your first deposit and place that

760
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 5: initial wager. If the bet wins, you get all the money.

761
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 5: If it doesn't win, bet mgm will refund you in

762
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 5: free bets up to six hundred dollars. It's that simple.

763
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 5: Just click on the link in this episode description to

764
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 5: get started. Bet mgm has been a great podcast partner,

765
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 5: and they've got all the features gamblers like us love,

766
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 5: like live betting and daily odds boosts. Plus their compatible

767
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 5: with Betsinc. So when you place a wager at bet mgm,

768
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 5: that bet can automatically be tracked.

769
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: In your Action app.

770
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 5: So open an account today and make your first bet

771
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 5: risk free up to six hundred dollars.

772
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: Just click on the link.

773
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 5: In this episode description to get started. Must be twenty

774
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:19,240
Speaker 5: one or older and physically located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana,

775
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 5: West Virginia, and Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada, or Pennsylvania. Please

776
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,399
Speaker 5: gamble responsibly gambling problem called one eight hundred and five

777
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 5: two two forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevata. One

778
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 5: eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, in West Virginia,

779
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 5: one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana, one

780
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 5: eight hundred and two seven zero seven to one one

781
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 5: seven in Michigan, one eight one hundred and eight nine

782
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 5: nine seven eight nine in Tennessee. One eight hundred bets

783
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 5: off in Iowa or one eight eight five three two

784
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 5: thirty five hundred in Virginia. Betsink not available in Nedata.

785
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

786
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 4: Let's wrap up by introducing another saying meant that we're

787
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 4: usually going to be doing this one on Fridays, So

788
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:56,280
Speaker 4: this one is called plus Money. So each Friday, Raheem

789
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 4: and I are going to try to look at the

790
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 4: board for some underdog, some long shots, some teams out

791
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 4: plus juice and try to get the best of the

792
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 4: number for you. So today is a special plus Money

793
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 4: Futures edition. So here's what we're gonna do. Each one

794
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 4: of us gets one thousand dollars to play with and

795
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 4: we're betting NFL futures. So we're gonna use this just

796
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 4: to cast our lot on a few different plays here

797
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 4: set the table heading into the new season. So we're

798
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 4: not going to go along on cases here. We've talked

799
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 4: about almost all this stuff on our podcasts, on the articles,

800
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 4: So check the app, you know, make sure to get

801
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 4: that and follow up on anything you want to hear

802
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 4: more on.

803
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 3: But let's start out with the one.

804
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:33,839
Speaker 4: At the top, because here we are right back again

805
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 4: with the Browns. Rahim, who are you betting to win

806
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl this season? And how much of your

807
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 4: thousand dollars are you going to put on this?

808
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm gonna take two different teams to win the

809
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. First things first, I'm taking the Browns. They

810
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 2: have everything you need. I've already explained my love for

811
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 2: Kevin Stefanski.

812
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: They had some really bad luck on defense. They've lost a.

813
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 2: Lot at our corners. They got everybody healthy this year.

814
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 2: They've improved the differensive line. We've spoken before about how

815
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 2: they had bad luck, couldn't throw the ball in a

816
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 2: win against Las Vegas, Houston and Philadelphia.

817
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: The offense should be better.

818
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 2: I think this is a super Bowl winning team, So

819
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 2: I'm putting two hundred on the Browns at plus sixteen hundred.

820
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,879
Speaker 1: The other two hundred is going to go on the Packers.

821
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:18,720
Speaker 1: I wasn't that high on the Packers.

822
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 2: I think I mentioned they've overformed the Pythagoray expectation two

823
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 2: seasons in a row. But one of the things that

824
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 2: stands out to me is when I'm looking for a

825
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 2: Super Bowl pick, I want a team that's.

826
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 1: Going to dominate the division. You look at the New

827
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 1: England Patriots.

828
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 2: They were a great team with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick,

829
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 2: but one of the things that gave them an advantage

830
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 2: was that they were playing the AFC East, and the

831
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 2: AFC East might have been trashed for fifteen years straight.

832
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 2: And I think that's what you have going on with

833
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: the NFC North right now. They're clearly the cream of

834
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 2: the crop. I mean, the Bears and the Lions are

835
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 2: just laughing stocks at this point.

836
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 1: And while I am higher.

837
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 2: On the Vikings this year, I still think the Packers

838
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 2: have an advantage over them. And the big thing is

839
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,839
Speaker 2: that there's only one number one seed and one buy

840
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 2: and each conference this year, and if you dominate your division,

841
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 2: that puts you on path to get in that first round.

842
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 1: By to two hundred on the Packers to win a

843
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, but also have one hundred on the Packers

844
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 1: to win the number one seed in NFC. I think

845
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 1: you have similar sympse to me.

846
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, so the Packers that's at five point fifty to

847
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 4: get the one seed. So you got the kind of

848
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,359
Speaker 4: the double down on green Bay. And you know, I

849
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 4: like the double down because if the Packers get the

850
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,280
Speaker 4: one seed, you get that buy, you get the home games,

851
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 4: and Lambeau. You're set up to get the Packers into

852
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl and get their chances there too. So yeah,

853
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 4: for me, I also like the Packers. I'm not going

854
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 4: in quite on the Super Bowl. My Packers play is

855
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 4: green Bay to win the most games in the NFL

856
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 4: this season at plus twenty two hundred. Similar argument. The

857
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 4: Packers are thirteen and three to the last two years.

858
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 4: We know that they're outperforming expectations, but we know that

859
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 4: they keep doing it. And it's the only real way

860
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 4: that we've seen the NFL to continually outperform is with

861
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 4: an elite quarterback, and that's what they have in Aaron Rodgers.

862
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 4: So Rogers is very good. I think the defense is

863
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 4: a little bit underrated. They have a good player at

864
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 4: all the key positions on the field, so I like

865
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 4: the Packers there. Twenty two to one is just too

866
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 4: long of a number to me. That's that number just

867
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 4: leaps off the board. So I'm one hundred dollars on

868
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 4: that one my super Bowl pick. I am not loving

869
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 4: a lot of the value on the Super Bowl numbers

870
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 4: right now, in part because some of the teams that

871
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,919
Speaker 4: I do like have a rough schedule early, so.

872
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 3: I think that it's more of a wait and see.

873
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 4: I've eyeballed Dallas a little bit at thirty five to one,

874
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 4: but Dallas is at Tampa Bay in Week one. I

875
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 4: don't think they're going to win, So why play Dallas

876
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 4: now when I can probably get a better number after

877
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 4: My pick that I am going to play is Cleveland.

878
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,479
Speaker 4: We talked about Cleveland. We're both on the Browns this year.

879
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 4: I'm only going to put one hundred dollars on at

880
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 4: sixteen to one because I think I can go back

881
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 4: and play again if they do lose that first week

882
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 4: in Kansas City.

883
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 3: But I like the Browns.

884
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:09,320
Speaker 4: I think that Baker Mayfield is ready to take another

885
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 4: step forward in that system.

886
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 3: I'm not a huge Baker believer.

887
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 4: But I am a Baker believer with Stefanski and with

888
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 4: that line and the run game and receivers, and I

889
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 4: like the defense, and I think that I wouldn't be

890
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 4: too shocked to see Miles Garrett and Genevian Clowney and

891
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 4: some of these guys rough up that new Chiefs offensive

892
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 4: line that doesn't really he hasn't played together, it hasn't

893
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 4: been tested like this. So I think, to me, if

894
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,280
Speaker 4: you like the Browns, and we do, I think that

895
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 4: that defense has to be the reason. We know what

896
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 4: the offense can do. But I think if the defense

897
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 4: makes a similar leap to what the offense did last year,

898
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 4: that this is a team that really could go all

899
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 4: the way. So I'm in for one hundred dollars. The

900
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 4: one where I am going to play a lot on

901
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 4: is my MVP peck. This is my biggest play on

902
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 4: my board. I think that Tom Brady to win MVP

903
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 4: at fourteen to one is the best play on the

904
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 4: board any future.

905
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 3: I'm going four hundred dollars.

906
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 4: Almost half of my bank roll is going on Tom Brady,

907
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 4: old man Brady. Here's the case we set up before

908
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 4: the media loves Tom Brady, the media wants to give

909
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 4: Tom Brady another MVP. He only has three so far

910
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 4: and Peyton Manning has five. There's a bunch of guys

911
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 4: with three and Peyton with five. Tom needs to close

912
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 4: the gap a little bit. And I think it's going

913
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 4: to have a huge statistical season. Those receivers and the

914
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 4: weapons he has in Tampa Bay. There's just so much

915
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 4: out there. I think Antonio Brown is going to have

916
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 4: a big season. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, you know, Gronkowski

917
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 4: and Oj Howard. I just there's so much there, and

918
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 4: I think Brady could be a real threat to put

919
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 4: up something like five thousand yards. I think you get

920
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 4: it go easily over forty touchdowns, maybe approaching fifty. I

921
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 4: think that there's an MVP number there, even if he

922
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 4: doesn't get the numbers. I think the Bucks are going

923
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 4: to be a you know, the one or the two seed.

924
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:02,919
Speaker 4: They're going to be right near the top in that race,

925
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 4: which is very important for this one. They're gonna win

926
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 4: a lot. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL.

927
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 4: Somehow Tom does it again. He always gets the easy schedule.

928
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 4: I don't know what he's doing. I just think all

929
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,760
Speaker 4: signs go on it. He would be my favorite personally

930
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 4: to win the MVP. I think fourteen to one is ludicrous.

931
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 4: So four hundred of my thousand dollars on fourteen to one,

932
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 4: and I thank the Bucks for a down payment on

933
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 4: my next big investment in January when this one pays off.

934
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:31,760
Speaker 3: Who you got for your MVP?

935
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 1: For my MVP, I'm going with Russell Wilson.

936
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 2: Through the first eight games of the season last year,

937
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 2: I mean this guy, he was clearly the MVP favorite.

938
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 2: I think Pete Carroll he took the offense and he

939
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 2: brought it to another place and he kind of killed it.

940
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 2: But I think Russell Wilson came into the season and

941
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 2: he complained.

942
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: What did he say? He said, you guys not protecting.

943
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 2: Me, and then you guys aren't going to play the

944
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 2: offense that I'm supposed to be playing. Russ Cook has

945
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 2: become a thing. I mean, this guy has weapons. I

946
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 2: mean he has Metcalf, he has Tyler Lockett, he has the.

947
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 1: Rookie and Eskridge. They changed out the offensive coordinator to

948
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 1: Shane Wilder.

949
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 2: With with the Rams last season, I think Russell Wilson

950
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 2: at plus two thousand, it's a bargain. I mean, at

951
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 2: this point, there's no way that we're gonna get through

952
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 2: halfway through the season, and the Seahawks are, you know,

953
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 2: relatively successful and were not and not see this number drop.

954
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take Russell Wilson here.

955
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 2: I'm just I'm not sure how successful the Seahawks would be,

956
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 2: but if they're gonna be successful, it's gonna because of him,

957
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 2: So I gotta take it.

958
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: I'm putting one hundred dollars on.

959
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that.

960
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 4: The thing about Seattle is I don't know if I

961
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 4: trust Seattle as much as I trust Russell Wilson. So

962
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 4: that's a little hesitant there. But if we get if

963
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 4: Russ is cooking all year, that could be good. All right,

964
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,280
Speaker 4: So I think I think you're up to six hundred dollars.

965
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,359
Speaker 4: So what are some other team players that you have

966
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 4: to start filling out the rest of your thousand?

967
00:43:57,560 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 1: Okay?

968
00:43:57,880 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 2: So I have the Washington football team to win an NFC.

969
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 2: I mentioned all year about how I love this team.

970
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 2: I'm back in March we hit an article on taking

971
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 2: the over on the Washington football team. I mentioned I

972
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: like the Washington football team plus one and I like

973
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:13,879
Speaker 2: him on six point teasers this week against the Chargers.

974
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 2: So we're riding the Washington football team. They got a

975
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 2: stolid front seven. They don't have the Dwayne Haskins or

976
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 2: the corpse of Alex Smith, so they should win this division.

977
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,399
Speaker 2: I have the Coats to miss the playoffs. We spoke

978
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 2: about the Coats earlier, all the issues on the offensive line,

979
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 2: Carson Wentz. We spoke about Zach Wilson earlier. I'm taking

980
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 2: him plus seven hundred to win offense to the Rookie of

981
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 2: the Year. I think the offense is going to roll,

982
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 2: and then the last one is a wild card. I mean,

983
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,919
Speaker 2: there's some sharp money on this. One of the big

984
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 2: betters that I truly respect. He's hit a ton of

985
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 2: future bets before he's hit Lamar Jackson MVP his second

986
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 2: year God by the name of ed Teacher on Twitter.

987
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 1: I really respect this. Guys from Motrellum here, we're going.

988
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:59,840
Speaker 2: With Clyte Edwards Tlaire plus thirty three hundred to have

989
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 2: the most Russian tds.

990
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: I mean, we talk a lot about Kansas City's prolific.

991
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 2: Offense, but I think one of the things we don't

992
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 2: realize is that if they're going to be at the

993
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 2: goal one a lot, and there's not a time share situation.

994
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: There's no Darrell Williams, there's no Le'Veon Bell.

995
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 2: And this guy was supposed to be the guy who

996
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 2: I mean, everybody was high on.

997
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 1: Him last year in fantasy football.

998
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 2: Everybody saw him as a guy who who was going

999
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 2: to come out and dominate. And he was a little

1000
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 2: bit disappointing last year. But this is his second year

1001
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 2: in the system. He didn't have training camp. Last year,

1002
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 2: we had COVID. They fixed the offensive line, you know,

1003
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 2: they try to run the ball a little bit more.

1004
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,800
Speaker 2: And I think he's he's he's he's got a benefit

1005
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:41,440
Speaker 2: from that. I mean, you got joke them Thunian Orlando Brown.

1006
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 2: So I'm taking Clyde Edwards Hilaire most Russian tds plus

1007
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:46,959
Speaker 2: thirty three hundred just a little flyer.

1008
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 3: All right. I like it.

1009
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 4: I don't know if I've ever heard you better thirty

1010
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 4: three to one before, so I'm not in on that one,

1011
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 4: but I like just hearing you you take one of

1012
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 4: those long shots. His music to my ears, So it's

1013
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 4: being of long shots. Let me give you a few

1014
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 4: of them to fill out the rest of my plays.

1015
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 4: Here my second highest play on the board. Out of

1016
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:07,280
Speaker 4: my thousand dollars, I'm gonna put two hundred and fifty

1017
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 4: dollars so quarter my money on the AFC North to

1018
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 4: win the conference. So here's that bet. To me, I

1019
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:17,799
Speaker 4: think that there are four teams that could realistically win

1020
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 4: the AFC. It's the Chiefs and the Bills, who I

1021
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 4: don't believe in. It's the Browns and the Ravens, who

1022
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 4: I do believe in. So this is me betting on

1023
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 4: Cleveland or Baltimore to get out of the AFC. I

1024
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 4: think Josh Allen is a very prime regression candidate, and

1025
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 4: I don't love the Bills as a Super Bowl roster

1026
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 4: around them, So that's not even necessarily like to me,

1027
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 4: that's clearly the fourth of those four teams. So this

1028
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 4: is a bet on the Browns and the Ravens, and

1029
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 4: it's a chance for me to fade the Chiefs. That's

1030
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 4: just the position. I've talked about these three teams all year,

1031
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 4: and so I like that. That's at plus two sixty,

1032
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,359
Speaker 4: So two hundred and fifty dollars on that, I'm gonna

1033
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 4: take a long shot another chance to fade the Chiefs.

1034
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,959
Speaker 4: I'm going to take the Denver Broncos to go worse

1035
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 4: to first in their division at plus nine. Shouts to

1036
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 4: Matt Moore, I got it. Denver Brown goes long shot

1037
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 4: in here for him. So I wrote a whole article

1038
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 4: of talking about the worst of first division teams. I

1039
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 4: think Denver has a shot to do it. So I'll

1040
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:14,719
Speaker 4: put one hundred dollars on that, and then I've got

1041
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 4: one hundred left and I'm going to go twenty five

1042
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 4: each on four season leaders. I wrote articles all last

1043
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:23,839
Speaker 4: week on each season leader stats, so you can read

1044
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,879
Speaker 4: more about these there. I'm gonna take Aaron Jones at

1045
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 4: twenty to one rushing touchdowns. I'm gonna take Antonio Brown, yes,

1046
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 4: Antonio Brown sixty six to one for receiving touchdowns, and

1047
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 4: then Justin Jefferson for receiving yards at fourteen to one,

1048
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:43,800
Speaker 4: Keenan Allen for receptions at seventeen to one. So twenty

1049
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 4: five bucks each on each of those guys. That is

1050
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 4: our thousand dollars plus money. Hrahim, We gave everyone a

1051
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 4: bunch of picks. Can you put it all together? Give

1052
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 4: us your rundown of where your dollars are going.

1053
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,879
Speaker 2: Okay, my Rundown is we got on the brown Super

1054
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,280
Speaker 2: Bowl to run on a Packers Super Bowl. We got

1055
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 2: one hundred on Russell Wilson the MVP. We got the

1056
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 2: one hundred on the Packers to win the number one C.

1057
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 2: We have one hundred on the Washington football team to

1058
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 2: win the NFC East, one hundred on the Coast to

1059
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:17,879
Speaker 2: win the to miss the playoffs, one hundred on Zach

1060
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 2: Wilson offensive Rookie of the Year, and one hundred on.

1061
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 1: Clyte Edwards Hilaire most rushing touchdowns. That's it.

1062
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 2: I think my biggest long shot is obviously Clyte Edwards Hilaire.

1063
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 2: And you know, hopefully we make you guys some cash

1064
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 2: this year. I know you guys I want to Bentley,

1065
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:38,360
Speaker 2: so hopefully we can all you know get luxury.

1066
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: Cars at the end of the season.

1067
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 4: Well, if you want a luxury car, I say, played

1068
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 4: Tom Brady for MVP. That's my big one four hundred

1069
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 4: of my thousand dollars on Tom Brady at fourteen to one,

1070
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 4: one hundred bucks on the Browns to win the Super Bowl.

1071
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:52,279
Speaker 4: Rahem and I are both in on that. One two

1072
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,440
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty on the AFC North to win the

1073
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,800
Speaker 4: AFC Conference, hundred bucks on Green Bay to lead the

1074
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 4: NFL in the wins, fifty on to win the division.

1075
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 4: I think it's had one hundred a bit ago, but

1076
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 4: fifty on that and then twenty five each on those

1077
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:09,280
Speaker 4: Aaron Jones, Antonio Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Keenan Allen season

1078
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 4: leader props. So that is going to wrap it up

1079
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 4: today at the Action Network Podcast. Don't forget to check

1080
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 4: out everything else on our feed and all the articles

1081
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 4: in the award winning app to get you ready for

1082
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 4: the season. Wednesday, right here on the Action Network Podcast,

1083
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 4: Stocky and Raybon are back with their NFL betting guide

1084
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 4: and six pack. Raheem and I are back Friday for

1085
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 4: a quick run through the slate into the weekend, and

1086
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 4: then first thing Monday morning, we're back again the talk

1087
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 4: Monday Night Football and all the betting action from Sunday

1088
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:42,840
Speaker 4: Week one, and of course our hot reads as we

1089
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 4: start to make money on that next week ahead. As always,

1090
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 4: please rate, subscribe, and review for Raheem Palmer. I'm Brandon

1091
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:54,080
Speaker 4: Anderson and this has been the Action Network Podcast. Football

1092
00:49:54,160 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 4: is back, baby, Let's watch some games to the spa