1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,640 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here, 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election. 4 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,719 Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade 5 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent. 6 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible. 7 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means 8 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. 9 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,479 Speaker 4: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Ukraine 10 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 4: is losing this war. 11 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: They are not going to drive Russia out of PRIMEA, 12 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: They're not going to drive Russia out of many of. 13 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 4: The territories that they've taken. 14 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: Right now, we should be working toward a deal, a 15 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 1: peaceful solution, which has been on the table several times 16 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: throughout this war, and it's been the West who has 17 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: been trying to squash it. 18 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 3: Ukraine hasn't been losing. Both countries have been stalling. I 19 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 3: don't want this conflict to end in a way that's 20 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 3: going to guarantee the conflict reemerges in two years. If 21 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,919 Speaker 3: the line just freezes where it is right now, are 22 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 3: we not guaranteeing another conflict in a few years. 23 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 1: The United States of America holds all of the chips. 24 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 1: We could offer Vladimir Putin something that would probably get 25 00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: him to do whatever we wanted him to do. And 26 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: you know that is the ultimate crowning jewel for heavy 27 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: How about we leave Nata. 28 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 5: All right, welcome to Counterpoints Today. We're going to be 29 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 5: talking about the Ukraine Russia war. Emily, who are going 30 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 5: to have. 31 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 6: Yeah, Well, we have two great guests joining us. We 32 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 6: were joined by YouTuber live streamer Vash and we are 33 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 6: joined by comedian podcast hosts Dave Smith Vous Dave welcome, 34 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 6: Thanks for joining. 35 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 4: Us, my pleasure, Thanks for having us. 36 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,759 Speaker 6: Well. Ukraine is a timely subject to debate right now. 37 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 6: Obviously we're two plus years into the war, but there 38 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 6: have been recent escalations and that makes it important, I 39 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 6: think to sort of go through some of those recent developments. 40 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 6: For example, the US recently greenld as many people know, 41 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 6: strikes with US weapons inside of Russia. There was the 42 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 6: strike that the Russia is blaming the US for in 43 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 6: CRIMEA just over the last couple of days. So I 44 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 6: think probably a good way to begin is to give 45 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 6: you both kind of an opening statement here, and I'll 46 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 6: start with you, Bosh. Should the US continue funding this war, 47 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 6: and then we'll go to Dave on the same question, 48 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 6: but go ahead first, Bosh. 49 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't like the idea on a 50 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 3: systemic level of rewarding Russia for invading a neighbor. I 51 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 3: just think generally speaking, that's bad for global relations, very destabilizing. 52 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 3: I think it's important that we support any system that 53 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 3: prevents that from happening. And not exactly a novel position 54 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 3: with regards to the recent development and strikes inside Russian territory, 55 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,519 Speaker 3: I actually think that this is in the long run 56 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 3: going to be a good move for peace, just because 57 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 3: the previous US doctrine, which seemed to be provide just 58 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 3: enough weapons to stall the war but not like decisively concluded. 59 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 3: I think that was actually like the worst possible decision. 60 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,519 Speaker 3: You know, if Russia did a sort of like early conquest, 61 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 3: or if Ukraine decisively held its territory, those both and 62 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 3: the war relatively quickly, but just in perminably stalling it 63 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,239 Speaker 3: right at the river, you know, I don't think that 64 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 3: would have been good in the long run. Hopefully, these 65 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 3: increased attacks inside Russian territory, mostly of course the refineries 66 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 3: that they're using to sort of get up their war economy. 67 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 3: Hopefully that serves as an effective long term deterrent. I 68 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 3: don't want this conflict to continue. I don't want civilians 69 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,959 Speaker 3: to die. Yeah, I mean, obviously we'll have to see 70 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 3: how things play out. 71 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 6: Dave, go ahead. 72 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: Well, of course, we should stop funding this. We never 73 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 1: should have been funding this war to begin with. I 74 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: think that in the original Cold War, which I still 75 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 1: regard as one of the worst US policies in modern 76 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: American history, that did so much to ruin our country 77 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: and not to mention, you know, like things like the 78 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: Vietnam War and the millions of people who died in it, 79 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: but at least in the original Cold War, I think 80 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: there was always a healthy respect for the risks involved 81 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: and that all of us should all same people should 82 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: recognize that the greatest priority in human history is that 83 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: the United States of America and Russia do not go 84 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: to war. And this something that people in the old 85 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: Cold War were very respectful of and aware of. The 86 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: Difference in this new Cold War environment is that no 87 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: one in the upper rechilants of power in America seems 88 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 1: to have any respect for this threat and any respect 89 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: for you know, you could think to yourself, Well, maybe 90 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: this will work out in a positive way that the 91 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: US is green lighting attacks inside of Russia, or perhaps 92 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: it could be an absolute disaster and we're playing with 93 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: When I say we're playing with fire, it's an understatement 94 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: where we're flirting with potentially the most disastrous thing that 95 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: could happen to the human species. If America is to 96 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: have any role in this conflict, it should be working 97 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 1: toward a peaceful negotiation, and in fact, the American role 98 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:50,840 Speaker 1: in the Western role has been to kill peaceful negotiations 99 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,479 Speaker 1: from the beginning of this war and to prolong the fighting. 100 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: I think that as John Meerscheimer said back in twenty fourteen, 101 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 1: the West is leading Ukraine down the Primrose path has 102 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: turned out to be the most accurate prediction on this 103 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 1: entire conflict. And essentially, I think since the fall of 104 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union, American foreign policy, and just keep in 105 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: mind American foreign policy in the Clinton administration, in the w. 106 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: Bush administration, in Obama's administration, those are the same people 107 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: who are in charge of the Middle East. And in fact, 108 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: the neo Conservatives were very focused on NATO expansion back 109 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: in the nineties. You can go read the project for 110 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 1: New American Century Documents. And the same people who totally 111 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 1: blundered foreign policy in the Middle East have totally blundered 112 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: foreign policy in Europe, provoking Vladimir Putin and the Russians 113 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,840 Speaker 1: at every turn, leading to this awful place. 114 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 4: That we're in. 115 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,359 Speaker 1: That is, certainly, if you care about the Ukrainians at all, 116 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 1: has been more of a disaster for the Ukrainian people 117 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: than anyone else. 118 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 7: And Dave Vash made a point that I think you 119 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 7: hear a lot. 120 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 5: From defenders of US support for the Ukrainian war, and 121 00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 5: that is, you can't allow other countries. No, you can't 122 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 5: reward other countries for invading other countries. 123 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 7: You just can't do that. We can't have that. What's 124 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,840 Speaker 7: the response to that we can't have that argument? 125 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: Well, I mean, first I would just point out how 126 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 1: absurd it is that after the last twenty years of 127 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: terror wars, somehow the United States of America still gets 128 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 1: to put itself in the position of global peacemaker, as 129 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: if our major concern is that bigger nations can bully 130 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 1: smaller nations. I mean, over the last twenty years, there's 131 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: been no greater purveyor of violence than the United States 132 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: of America, who has imposed its will on tiny, helpless 133 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 1: nations across the world. 134 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 4: As far as. 135 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 1: That, yeah, it's not good that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, 136 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: and yes, certainly that's something we don't want to see, 137 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: my argument would be that America and the West more 138 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 1: broadly had many opportunities, many off ramps to put this 139 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: fire out or at least calm it down, and at 140 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: every single turn forward more gasoline on this fire that 141 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: ultimately resulted in the invasion in twenty twenty two. 142 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, so bosh, how can the US say with a 143 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 5: straight face that it's not okay for other countries to 144 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 5: invade smaller countries. 145 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's kind of a cowardly non argument 146 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 3: because I'm not arguing in favor of the moral superiority 147 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 3: of the United States. That'd be a ridiculous position for 148 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 3: me to take. It's not football. We're not taking sides 149 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 3: like you know, waving banners. There are two levels to 150 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 3: this when it comes to agency. We're concerned about the 151 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 3: broader socioeconomic and geopolitical context that led to where we 152 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 3: are now, and that goes back to the Cold War 153 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 3: and even earlier. You know, if we listened to Putin's 154 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 3: justifications for the invasion, it goes back to the borders 155 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 3: of the Russian Empire, you know, and then there's like 156 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 3: the immediate decision making. We mustn't remove agency from the equation. 157 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 3: Russia invaded, by Putin's own words, in a sort of 158 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 3: territorial land grab. The idea that it was entirely because 159 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 3: of response to Western aggression or oposturing is ridiculous and 160 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 3: a historical but that doesn't mean the West isn't responsible 161 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 3: for helping to create the situation where it now. We 162 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 3: have to balance These two justifications are arrogance after the 163 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 3: end of the Cold War, the fact that rather than 164 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 3: reaching out to Russia as a potential future ally, we ostracized, 165 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 3: you know, with the shock therapy, the sort of economic 166 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 3: devastation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet states. These 167 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 3: contributed to an environment in which future conflict was inevitable. 168 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 3: It was reprehensible in the part of the Western governments 169 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 3: to participate in this. Look today at the divide between 170 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 3: former West and Eastern Germany. I mean, the reason that 171 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 3: East Germany is voting so heavily for the AfD is 172 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 3: in large part because they see it as a rejection 173 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 3: of the doctrine of the West that left them behind 174 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 3: after reunification. These should all be taken into account, and 175 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 3: we must acknowledge that Putin is a fascist who did 176 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 3: a territorial landgrap Those two facts don't contradict each other. 177 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 3: They work together to create a complete narrative with regards 178 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,559 Speaker 3: to the invasion. Now, I agree we have to take 179 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 3: the threat from Russia seriously, and by that I mean 180 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 3: we don't want this to scale out infinitely. We don't 181 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 3: want this to turn into a global war. That's something 182 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 3: we have to take seriously. At the same time, we 183 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 3: have to acknowledge Russia does too, and they're constant threats 184 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:13,599 Speaker 3: of nuclear war. The fact that they started this invasion, 185 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 3: the fact that they have been posturing and acting aggressive 186 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 3: towards Finland, towards the Baltic States, even like ramping up 187 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 3: aggression towards the rest of Western Europe. We must consider 188 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 3: again their agency. Now I think that in the long 189 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 3: run there is a very deleterious consequence to creating an 190 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:35,679 Speaker 3: incentive structure where Putain gets to boost his national rep 191 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 3: his prestige with a successful land grab in Ukraine. I 192 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 3: think it would have been disastrous if he could have 193 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 3: just marched west and taken the territory, because it would 194 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 3: have reaffirmed and rewarded all the worst possible behaviors from him. 195 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 3: That doesn't mean I think that we should sort of 196 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 3: do a victory lap around Russia, you know, Cold War two. 197 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 3: Let's win, let's let's let's trounce them in Ukraine. I 198 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 3: do think that we're in a tough situation because we 199 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 3: can't just like magically make Russia a democracy or a 200 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 3: country less incentivized to invaded staples or reclaim historical territory. 201 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 3: It's a difficult question, which is why I don't like 202 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 3: simple answers. 203 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 6: So, Dave, actually, here's an interesting point that Vauschist raised 204 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 6: about the beginning of the war, and if we may 205 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 6: all agree, correct me if I'm wrong, that we all 206 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 6: think it would have been bad if Putin had indeed 207 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 6: marched into Kiev and took all of Ukraine, et cetera. 208 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 6: But that leads us to the question, Dave, of how 209 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 6: much US involvement, if any, was just if we agreed 210 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 6: that it was good for the US to perhaps prevent 211 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 6: the Russian capture of Kiev, et cetera. At what point 212 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 6: did it become too much? At what point is the 213 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 6: support no longer just or moral? How do you respond 214 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 6: to that, Dave. 215 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 1: I think that the point that it, I mean, you 216 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: could start at a lot of different points. I think 217 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 1: the first round of NATO expansion was unjust and was 218 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 1: unnecessarily provocative of the Russians. I'm not exactly sure what 219 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: vash is referring to as like a cowardly non argument. 220 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 4: I simply was directly responding to Ryan's point. 221 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: If you have a serial killer who's killed far more 222 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: people than another serial killer, and they claim that they're 223 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,959 Speaker 1: trying to stop a serial killer because they're so against killing, 224 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: it's reasonable to point out that no, this is in 225 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: fact not what's motivating US foreign policy. That know, the 226 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: butcherers of Iraq and Afghanistan and Syria and Somalia and 227 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: Libya and Yemen are not actually motivated by some sense 228 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,079 Speaker 1: of we can't let big guys pick on little guys. 229 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 1: Let's have an honest conversation about what's really motivating this policy. 230 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: And it has been since the collapse of the Soviet Union. 231 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 1: To increase the power of the American empire, and Russia 232 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: has always been seen as a force that's outside of 233 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 1: the American Empire. That's what's been motivating American foreign policy. 234 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: This is what we're living through here is largely the 235 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: neo conservative doctrine. It is the worst thing that ever 236 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: happened in the history of our country is that after 237 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 1: we became probably the first ever true global superpower, about 238 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: ten years later, the neo conservatives got control of our 239 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,079 Speaker 1: foreign policy, and this was their plan from the very beginning. 240 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 4: So no, I don't think America should have been. 241 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 1: Involved in Ukraine at all, and I certainly don't think 242 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: that that anything we've done has done anything except make 243 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: this situation much worse and much much more dangerous, because 244 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 1: now you are experiencing a proxy war with the two 245 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: biggest nuclear superpowers. I don't think saying any of that 246 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: is reducing things down to simplistic, simplistic worldview, And of course, 247 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 1: you know, you kind of snuck a straw man in there. 248 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: I wouldn't say that this conflict is entirely because of 249 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: NATO expansion, but to pretend like that's not a major 250 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 1: driving factor in this conflict is to not be dealing 251 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: with reality. And this has been admitted by all of 252 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: the top people on both sides, and this was why 253 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,559 Speaker 1: so many peopeople within the national security apparatus in the 254 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: nineties opposed the first round of NATO expansion explicitly because 255 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: this will provoke a reaction from the Russians. Through the years, 256 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 1: the Russians have been crystal clear that Ukraine was their 257 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,839 Speaker 1: red line. Thanks to the greatest journalist of the twenty 258 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: first century, the hero Julian Assan, who is thankfully now 259 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: a free man, we know that the current head of 260 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 1: the CIA, Burns told Condaleza writes this explicitly that this 261 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 1: was a red line, and not a red line in 262 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: the way that America makes up red lines, like Obama 263 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: will say if Asad uses a certain type of weapon 264 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 1: on his people, that's a red line for us. 265 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 4: It's all just ridiculous. 266 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: This is a red line in a true sense, in 267 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: the sense that Jack Kennedy said, putting nuclear missiles in 268 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 1: Cuba is a red line for us. 269 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 4: We will blow up the world if you try to 270 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 4: do that. 271 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin, and as Burns pointed out, not just Vladimir Putin, 272 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 1: the entire Russian establishment has been unanimous on this that 273 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: they will not tolerate Ukraine and jury to NATO. And look, 274 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: it was not it's not justified or reasonable for Vladimir 275 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: Putin to have launched this war, But on the scale 276 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 1: of geopolitical demands, the demand that Ukraine cannot be a 277 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: part of the American Empire's military alliance was a fairly 278 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 1: reasonable one, and we could have avoided this whole war 279 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: by just committing to that. 280 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 6: I have a quick follow up on that, Dave, So 281 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 6: sure all things, you know, we're dealing in the reality 282 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 6: that we did push for the NATO expansion and twenty 283 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 6: fourteen and all of that considered. Is your position that 284 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 6: there should have been like basically zero aid, military, whatever 285 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 6: else a government aid to Ukraine after the invasion a 286 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 6: couple of years back, like basically just none. 287 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: Absolutely, if there was any role for the Americans to play, 288 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: it would have been trying to negotiate an end to 289 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: the war. Unfortunately, you know, if you're putting me in 290 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 1: the hypothetical of like, you can't change anything before this, 291 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: but you're already here, we had probably blown all of 292 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: that good will and there were better parties who would 293 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: have been more suited for that. You know, for example, 294 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: going back to even the Bootgres summit in two thousand 295 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: and eight, into the beginning of the Maydan Revolution, Germany 296 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: was much more hesitant to get to go down this path. 297 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: There were other European countries who were kind of like, hey, 298 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 1: let's not provoke the Russians. It's part of the reason 299 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: why Ukraine didn't get a full map invitation in two 300 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: thousand and eight. It's the objection of the Germans. So 301 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: probably someone else would have been better at it. Yes, Essentially, 302 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 1: what I'm saying is that the greatest purveyor of violence in. 303 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 4: The world, the most war hungry country in the world, the. 304 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: United States of America, shouldn't have been the ones at 305 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: the table at all, and there might have been some 306 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 1: goodwill from other parties who had more of an interest 307 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: to avoid this catastrophe, if I may. 308 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 3: I just there are elements of this that I guess 309 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 3: don't make sense to me. First of all, the claim 310 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 3: that America's decision making is based on it tried to 311 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 3: expand its own geopolitical power rather than any altruistic interest. 312 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 3: That's true, but that's also the case for all countries. 313 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 3: That's basic ir theory. So the idea of like, well, 314 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 3: this Neokon theory of America expanding it's interest. 315 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 4: That's just nation states. 316 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 3: Russia's doing that right now, India's doing that, China's doing that. 317 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 4: Everyone's doing that. 318 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 3: We're better at it because we're a superpower, of course, 319 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 3: but that's like a fundamental rule of national exchange. I 320 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 3: don't think that it's really a moral question. It's a 321 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 3: matter of material conditions. In a basic Marxist sense. Who's 322 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 3: motivated by what and where they are In the modern world, 323 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 3: you know, the imperial sphere of influence extends to the 324 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 3: entire planet. You know, American jets can reach any part 325 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 3: of the world in twenty four hours. Everyone's can if 326 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 3: they have jets. There's no we get the nation next 327 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 3: to us, Which makes me think the idea that like 328 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 3: Ukraine is more innately in the Russian sphere of influence 329 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 3: is I think it's a little bit old hat. At 330 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 3: the end of the day, the people in Ukraine were 331 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 3: interested in closer relations with the EU, and that is 332 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 3: ultimately what triggered everything from Euromi on Yuonokovich fleeing, the 333 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 3: annexation of Crimea, the invasion of the Dunbass following the 334 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,880 Speaker 3: invasion of Ukraine. Broadly, this is again a complicated situation. 335 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 3: I don't mean to detract from the influence that Western 336 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 3: arrogance hadn't I would never never try to do that. 337 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 3: But I do think that, like your roadmap for how 338 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 3: things should have progressed from American perspective following the twenty 339 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 3: twenty two invasion is misguided, because I don't think the 340 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,719 Speaker 3: world would be any farther from annihilation if Russia had 341 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 3: simply marched westward, taken give and we had a bunch 342 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 3: of ginned up Russian soldiers right up against the border 343 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:39,360 Speaker 3: of Poland, you know, having just successfully annexed former Soviet 344 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 3: slash Russian imperial territory. You could imagine the propaganda coming 345 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 3: out of the Kremlin about how they're reuniting their people. 346 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 3: They're sort of like expanding the Russian interest in like 347 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 3: a diaganist ethnic sense, you know, reclaiming the empire. I 348 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,199 Speaker 3: think that like the incentive structure behind that would be 349 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 3: really bad. Like that you're basically getting You're like you're 350 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 3: throwing chum into the water for you know, Putin is expansionist. 351 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 3: He's been sort of like preempting this for a long 352 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 3: time with Georgia, you know, his behavior with the Chechens. 353 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 3: I don't think that that would bring us any closer 354 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 3: to peace now. Is the current path we're on right 355 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 3: now the best possible road? Obviously not nothing we ever 356 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 3: do is the best possible road, But I think it's 357 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:23,400 Speaker 3: closer to threading that line than just letting them march 358 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 3: westward with them. What I'm interested in, I guess, is 359 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 3: practical solutions now outside of just letting Ukraine get annexed, 360 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 3: which I really don't think would have been good for 361 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 3: world peace in the long run, even if it would 362 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:38,479 Speaker 3: have quickly ended the conflicts. How do we incentivize Ukraine 363 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 3: and Russia to come to the table and bring it 364 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,479 Speaker 3: into this war? Can Ukraine regain its lost territory? I 365 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 3: think morally it should be able to, because I don't 366 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 3: like nations being rewarded for annexing adjacent territory. But logistically 367 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 3: can they Would it be possible to end things where 368 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 3: they are now? Would Russia keep crimea and that just 369 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 3: be seen as a kind of like dull historical injustice 370 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 3: to fade away over time At one hundred years from now, 371 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 3: people would be like, did you know CRIMEA used to 372 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 3: be Ukraine. 373 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 4: I don't know. 374 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 3: I just there's so much dogmatism, and whenever you bring 375 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 3: up like modern solutions, people go back to I don't know, 376 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 3: the end of the Cold War. I know, I mean, 377 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,120 Speaker 3: I understand NATO is not exactly a global force for good, 378 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,439 Speaker 3: But what can we do now? I mean, I so 379 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 3: rarely hear answers that are contextualized in the current moment. 380 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 1: I want to answer your question at the end there, 381 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: but just like a few things I want to point out, 382 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 1: number one, I think this is almost like bigger than 383 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: just any political debate. There's kind of it's a broader 384 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: theme in life in general. I think anybody who's married, 385 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: who's on the show or listening to the show, knows 386 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:43,239 Speaker 1: this is true in personal relationships. There's a tendency if 387 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 1: you're in an argument with your wife or your husband 388 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,120 Speaker 1: or something like that, to focus on what they did 389 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,360 Speaker 1: and what they did that's bothering you. But a much 390 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 1: more healthy posture if you're in a successful relationship is 391 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 1: that you also add in, like, Okay, well what am 392 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: I doing, how am I participating in this? 393 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 4: What have I done? 394 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: That's kind of led to this situation generally speaking, I 395 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 1: think that if you look at the corporate media, you're 396 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,880 Speaker 1: going to hear all of this talk about what Putin's done, 397 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 1: and I don't think. I think a lot of times 398 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,160 Speaker 1: in these debates people can kind of claim to be like, well, 399 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,919 Speaker 1: I'm adding I have a more nuanced position. I'm not 400 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,479 Speaker 1: simplifying things. I think the point of saying that, like, well, 401 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 1: all governments are expansionist by nature, so there's no difference 402 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 1: between the neo conservatives and say, other groups of people, 403 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: it's I don't know, it's I'm not saying they're the same, 404 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 1: but like a logical analogy, it's like, oh, well, all 405 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 1: governments kill people. So like what Adolf Hitler's doing is 406 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: just kind of the same as other governments. It's not 407 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 1: exactly true. It's kind of different in scale and in kind. 408 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 1: To sit here and say and look, if we have time, 409 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 1: we could go through the history of Chechnya and Georgia 410 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 1: and all this stuff, but to zoom out a little bit. 411 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 1: During the Cold War, we drew the line at the 412 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 1: Elbe River halfway through Germany. On one side was the 413 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:02,640 Speaker 1: Soviet Union, on the other side was NATO, and we're now, 414 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 1: you know, We're now talking about Ukraine, and you could 415 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 1: sit here with a straight face and say Putin is expansionist. Okay, 416 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: I mean, if that's how you want to look at it, 417 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: It's like, let's just look at the actual reality of 418 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 1: what's happening here. It's not that Putin has been this 419 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: expansionist force. Putin has been almost at every turn reaction 420 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: reacting to the expansion of the American Empire and Ukraine. 421 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 1: That's not Listen, that's just not true. It's not denying 422 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: someone agency to say that they're responding to something that 423 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: does doesn't everything to everything. 424 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,880 Speaker 4: That's all life. Sue just acts without it. You didn't 425 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,120 Speaker 4: gi just a cop out. That's just a cop out. 426 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 4: That's not the one. You're the one providing the cop out. 427 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,919 Speaker 3: You're saying that, like, it's not possible for Putin to 428 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 3: have like a distinctly expansionist element to his rule because 429 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 3: everyone's responding to so it's not possibility the expansionist element 430 00:21:59,080 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 3: to his rule. 431 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 4: Okay, there's no, that's not a binary one. Is it's not? 432 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 1: Hi, Instead of just interrupting me, let me make the 433 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: point you just laid out by a binary between is 434 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 1: it possible he has expansionist intentions and does he have 435 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: expansionist intentions. 436 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 4: That's not a binary. 437 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,679 Speaker 1: There are some expansionist desires that he has no In fact, 438 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,640 Speaker 1: if you actually like educate yourself on this topic, it 439 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: was our CIA director who said, and then yet means 440 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: yet memo leaked by Julian Assang that it verbatim, this 441 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 1: was a choice that Vladimir Putin did not want to 442 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: have to make. This was a choice that Russia did 443 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: not want to get involved in this war. 444 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 3: And if he made the choice, he made the choice 445 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 3: to invade, to bring troops down to the Ukrainian border, 446 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 3: to commit to multiple years of like, come on, you 447 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 3: know this is again, this is the thing I ask 448 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 3: you for, Like what can we do now? And immediately 449 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 3: it's it's back to the iron girl. 450 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,919 Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, there's what happens. 451 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 4: I just want to know in the modern I get. 452 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,919 Speaker 1: Actually, what happened was you made a long statement and 453 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: ended with that question, and I said, let me answer 454 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 1: that question, but first let me deal with what you 455 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 1: said at the beginning of your statement, and then you 456 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: started interrupting me. So no, it's not that I'm not 457 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 1: willing to answer that question. It's that I had to 458 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,679 Speaker 1: point out I think a lot of the errors that 459 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 1: you're making. 460 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 4: Now. 461 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: If you want just to say, what could we do 462 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: right now, well, look, we're going to have to be 463 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 1: realists about this situation and admit that Ukraine is losing 464 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 1: this war and that they're not going to drive Russia 465 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: out of Crimea. That's a joke. They're not going to 466 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 1: drive Russia out of many of the territories that they've taken. 467 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: Right now, we should be working toward a deal, a 468 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: peaceful solution, which has been on the table several times 469 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 1: throughout this war, and it's been the West who has 470 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: been trying to squash it. 471 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 4: Well, that's what we should do. 472 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 3: True at all, though you've seen, I assume you've read 473 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 3: the deals that Putin has put through, Zelensky hasn't been 474 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 3: particularly amenable to them himself. The narrative that the West 475 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 3: is squashing the deals, which is blown up largely because 476 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 3: of what that one Boris Johnson visit early on in 477 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,639 Speaker 3: the conflict. Don't get me wrong, Okay, the West is 478 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 3: its own interests. There are plenty of Western leaders who 479 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 3: would like to see the Russian armories depleted, but that 480 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 3: doesn't mean that Ukraine would have been jumping in the 481 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 3: bit for any of the deals Putin's been offering since 482 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 3: the war began, and Ukraine hasn't been losing. Both countries 483 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 3: have been stalling. This has been like a slog and 484 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 3: it has been since the first like or after the 485 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 3: first like three months of the war. I don't like 486 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 3: the narrative that Ukraine's losing because the fact that they 487 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 3: exist at all at this point, considering the Russian armaments 488 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 3: aligned against them, is pretty impressive. 489 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 6: Guys off the streets to ye fight. 490 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, but like and and Russian has, Russia has 491 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 3: like their penal colony forces with the Wagner group, like 492 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 3: pulling from from their multiple rounds of like really unpopular 493 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,399 Speaker 3: conscriptions waves of immigration out of Russia people. 494 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:51,199 Speaker 4: No, no, no, of course not. 495 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 3: I'm not arguing that, like it's a matter of our 496 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 3: investment or whether or not it's moral. You know, war 497 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 3: makes unfortunately unethical decision making of every side, including the 498 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,400 Speaker 3: good ones. The Allies did plenty of bad stuff during 499 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 3: World War Two. I'm only saying that it's been a 500 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 3: slug for both sides. I don't want to see this 501 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,680 Speaker 3: out in like I don't want this conflict to end 502 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 3: in a way that's going to guarantee the conflict reemerges 503 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 3: in two years. If you end up just setting the 504 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,120 Speaker 3: border right where the fighting lines are right now, we're 505 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 3: going to be exactly where we were back in twenty fourteen. 506 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 3: We're going to have a combination of like paid separatists 507 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 3: and Russian soldiers like moving around in the Dawn Bass. 508 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,640 Speaker 3: There's going to be constant exchanges of fire across the border. 509 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 3: This needs like a real international solution. I don't know 510 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 3: whether that means like a proper DMZ. I don't know 511 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 3: whether that means like genuine reconciliation. Ideally, for me, it 512 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 3: would be some kind of like Hail Mary, where Ukraine 513 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 3: gets its borders back and there's like a massive like 514 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 3: coming together between Russia and the West and we like 515 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 3: reopen trade and negotiations. But that's a little bit, a 516 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 3: little bit of a pipe dream. I just we do 517 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 3: agree that at least let's agree on this. If the 518 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,840 Speaker 3: line just freezes where it is right now, are we 519 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 3: not guaranteeing another inflicted in a few years. 520 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,959 Speaker 1: I don't know that that's possible to say, to be honest, 521 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 1: people to be pretty mad. 522 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 4: It's not guaranteeing. It's not guaranteeing it. 523 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 3: I don't know, especially at the front, are not positively 524 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 3: disposed to each other. I feel like we need to 525 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 3: give them something solid, a solid piece, not just like, oh, 526 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 3: we've decided now this slug has gone on for two 527 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 3: long they'd be throwing rocks at each other across the border. 528 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 3: You know, you could get a five mile wide DMZ 529 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 3: and those they'd still be like sending drones over with 530 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 3: bricks to drop at each other's heads. 531 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 4: Maybe this is all be rough with the case of. 532 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,360 Speaker 1: In general, with all of the war hawks that everybody 533 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 1: who's supported every single war over the last twenty years, 534 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:50,640 Speaker 1: it always kind of relies on this unfalsifiable counterfactual like, oh, 535 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,399 Speaker 1: if we didn't do this, then Vladimir Putin would be 536 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: invading Poland right now, or if the lines were drawn 537 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,120 Speaker 1: where they are, they'd they'd be throwing. 538 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 4: Rocks at each other. It's very hard to say. 539 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: I think the one thing that like, I think it's 540 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,640 Speaker 1: again just to rely on a counter factual, if that's 541 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,480 Speaker 1: what we're doing. I think the truth is that there 542 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,880 Speaker 1: were a lot of much better options. There were off 543 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,919 Speaker 1: ramps all throughout the path to get here. And the 544 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:18,639 Speaker 1: truth is that, if you want to go back to 545 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 1: twenty fourteen, the West should not have gotten involved the 546 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: way that it did. That it was it was such 547 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: a provocation to back the overthrow of a democratically elected government. 548 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,640 Speaker 1: If I mean, all you have to do is think 549 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: to yourself and just be honest here. 550 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 4: Past what's talk about. Let me just finish my point. 551 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:42,679 Speaker 1: If Russia or China had backed the overthrow of the 552 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:46,360 Speaker 1: government in Mexico or Canada because they opted to sign 553 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 1: a trade deal with US rather than the one that 554 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 1: they wanted them to side to sign, what do you 555 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: think DC would do? And we all know the answer 556 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 1: to that, they overthrow that government in a second. And 557 00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: we have a Monroe doctrine for a reason. And you 558 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,680 Speaker 1: can say that it's it's like some relic of the 559 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 1: past that faraway superpowers ought not intervene in the region 560 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 1: of other large nations. But we certainly wouldn't feel that way. 561 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 1: We wouldn't think it was a relic of the past. 562 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 1: If anybody tried to come over here and set up 563 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:21,919 Speaker 1: a military alliance with Mexico or with Canada, tell me 564 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,679 Speaker 1: how much DC would go, oh, yes, the Monroe doctrine 565 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 1: is just a relic of the past. 566 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 4: Do you think debate of pigs invasion was justified? No? 567 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 3: Because the Soviets invested economically and militarily into a country 568 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,399 Speaker 3: that is just off our coast during a time of 569 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 3: heightened international conflict. They knew that it would antagonize us. 570 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 3: We already had strained relationship with Castro, even though we 571 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 3: didn't initially of course, because we recognize that he was 572 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 3: a much litter better leader for the Cuban people than 573 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 3: the man he replaced. Do you not think the Soviets 574 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 3: antagonized us in a way much comparable to what we 575 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 3: have done with NATO and Ukraine? 576 00:28:58,360 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 4: Like I did? Oh they did? 577 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 3: Okay, So do you think then picked well, well, this isn't 578 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 3: a gotcha, this is gotcha. I think it's an interesting 579 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 3: question because I do think the Soviets were a little 580 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 3: bit wacky with how they handle Cuba. But I feel 581 00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 3: like in retrospect, we don't talk about the Bay of 582 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 3: Pigs invasion as an inevitable consequence of expansion, as Soviet 583 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,959 Speaker 3: investment in like in spite of our national interest? What 584 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 3: you do think about it as like Kennedy's mistake, you know. 585 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 1: Right, okay, but see a lot of the reason why 586 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 1: we think of it as Kennedy's mistake as the logistics 587 00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 1: of it. By the way, if you really want to 588 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,080 Speaker 1: get into it, wasn't Kennedy's mistake as much as the 589 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,120 Speaker 1: right the previous administration. 590 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 4: But regardless of any of that. 591 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 1: See what you asked me is if I thought the 592 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,959 Speaker 1: Bay of Pigs was justified, and I would also say that, no, 593 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 1: I don't think Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine was justified. 594 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 4: Do I think that the Soviets. 595 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 1: And the Cubans were taking a provocative stance against the 596 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 1: United States of America? Of course did there. Did those 597 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 1: provocations lead to the Bay of Pigs? I think that's undeniable. 598 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 1: And the truth is that from Vladimir Putin's got a 599 00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 1: much stronger case of out the provocations of the United 600 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 1: States of America because it's not just one little island 601 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 1: or one economic deal. It's been a steady push eastward 602 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 1: since since the late nineties. 603 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 5: Now that we are where we are, oh no, before 604 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 5: we go too far, I just want to stand up 605 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 5: for the dignity of the Cuban revolution for just a moment. 606 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:19,920 Speaker 6: Please, it was surprising development. 607 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,960 Speaker 7: I mean it was not. It was not a Soviet project. 608 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 5: This was this was a This was an organic Cuban 609 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 5: project against the corrupt elites in Cuba. Fidel Castro in 610 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,800 Speaker 5: the beginning, I thought he could maintain some decent relations 611 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 5: with the United States. 612 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 7: It was Shai Guwara who witnessed. 613 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 5: In nineteen fifty four he was in Guatemala when the 614 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 5: US overthrew our Benz and he was the one always 615 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 5: saying to Fidel Castro, You're not gonna be able to 616 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 5: work with the Yankees, like, it's not possible. Castro wanted 617 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 5: to like, he was like, look, no, these jazz are 618 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 5: corrupt you. I'm just I'm George Washington here. It was 619 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 5: only when it became in possible for the Cubans to 620 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 5: work for the Cuban revolutionaries to work with the US 621 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 5: that they went. 622 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:07,960 Speaker 7: They went in the Soviet direction. 623 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 4: And in fact Ryan but ahead. Correct if I'm wrong, 624 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 4: all correct, Correct me if I'm wrong about this. 625 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 1: But I also believe that Castro had been rejecting communism 626 00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 1: up to the point that the US started putting embargoes 627 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 1: on him before he then said Oh yeah, I'm a communist, 628 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 1: and so you could certainly argue that we drove him 629 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 1: into the hands of the of the Soviets. 630 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,720 Speaker 3: Right, And I think it plays further into the broader 631 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:34,520 Speaker 3: dynamic where basically everybody acts as a reaction of previous acts. 632 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 3: Very rarely does something you know, sort of come up 633 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 3: whole cloth. You almost always, even even for the United States. 634 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:41,719 Speaker 3: I mean, with all of our power, it might we 635 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,720 Speaker 3: are still responding to you know, the the the actions 636 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 3: and decision making of agents that are of themselves responding 637 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 3: to others in the world today where we are now, 638 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,480 Speaker 3: because there are a million places that I would have turned, 639 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:56,840 Speaker 3: I could have turned the clocks back and like changed history. 640 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 3: It brought us to a different point. For me personally, 641 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,000 Speaker 3: the big line wasn't with NATO. It was with economic 642 00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 3: investment in Russia and the shock therapy, you know, I 643 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 3: think that was the real line where we like lost 644 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 3: the post Cold War world, where we arrogantly decided that, 645 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,320 Speaker 3: you know, having like one over the Soviets, we would 646 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 3: do a victory lap by annihilating their economies, you know, 647 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 3: arrogantly like pillaging them and leading them to the oligarchs 648 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:24,640 Speaker 3: who had worked with us in like in a business 649 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 3: relation sense. If there was anything I could go back 650 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 3: and change, it would be that. You know, I'm not 651 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 3: really particularly fussed about NATO in particular. Military alliances are 652 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 3: always going to carry with them, let's say, problematic elements. 653 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,720 Speaker 3: NATO is just the Western military alliance everything that insinuates 654 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,440 Speaker 3: and carries. If we got along with Russia properly, maybe 655 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 3: all of this could have been avoided. I mean, hell, 656 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 3: it could have extended far enough east. We could be 657 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 3: on better relationship with China. We wouldn't have people like 658 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 3: Trump trying to constantly push for a second Cold War 659 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 3: with like the tariff, and well Biden did that too 660 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 3: recently with the electric vehicle, So I guess everybody wants 661 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 3: the Cold War with China. 662 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:58,760 Speaker 4: Things could have really started with Obama. 663 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, it's we all because we need a foreign threat. 664 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 3: We need a foreign threat exactly. Wasn't doing it for us, 665 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 3: and they're certainly not going to be doing it now. 666 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 1: So let me just say, because I think there's something 667 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 1: almost being lost here where. Look that technically speaking, you 668 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,360 Speaker 1: are right that everybody is reacting, and you are right 669 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 1: that every nation is you know, like I'm a radical libertarian. 670 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 1: I think basically essentially all governments are criminal organizations, so 671 00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,000 Speaker 1: you don't have to like convince me on that. The 672 00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 1: thing here that separates things is that after nineteen ninety one, 673 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 1: America became the first global superpower. 674 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 4: The level of power. 675 00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,719 Speaker 1: It's funny I have to explain this to a leftist, 676 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,400 Speaker 1: but the level of power that America had was totally 677 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 1: asymmetrical to anything else. 678 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 4: And here, yes, the first kids, right. 679 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,520 Speaker 1: And so so yes, it is like, it is true 680 00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 1: that there are all of these different nations that are 681 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 1: reacting to different things. However, if you actually look at 682 00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 1: the role that the United States of America played and 683 00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 1: then think about it from say the Russian personective that 684 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 1: this is not something that you and you may say 685 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:09,640 Speaker 1: from your perspective that you know, the NATO military alliance 686 00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,600 Speaker 1: isn't your biggest concern, okay, but it is the Russians, 687 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,359 Speaker 1: and you have to see from their perspective that they 688 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,399 Speaker 1: would see this as a threat that they cannot live with. 689 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 1: And the fact is that the idea of Ukraine, the 690 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 1: Ukrainian entry into NATO was something that was floated out 691 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,040 Speaker 1: for years, and not just in two thousand and eight 692 00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 1: at the Bucharest Summit where they announced that Ukraine and 693 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:33,440 Speaker 1: Georgia would be joining NATO, but for years after that 694 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,719 Speaker 1: and then more and more involvement, especially after the coup 695 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:41,319 Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen, joint military exercises with NATO and the 696 00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:45,240 Speaker 1: Ukrainian military, which is part of the reason why Vladimir 697 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,839 Speaker 1: Putin did not have such a quick, decisive victory right 698 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 1: away as he probably would have before that time period. 699 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:55,960 Speaker 1: But that from the Russian perspective, you have the global Empire, 700 00:34:56,320 --> 00:35:00,440 Speaker 1: the most war hungry country in the world, very clearly 701 00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:04,400 Speaker 1: committed to encirclement. Obviously, this is going to be a 702 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:05,480 Speaker 1: recipe for disaster. 703 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,879 Speaker 3: And yet Ukraine's desire to be protected by NATO has 704 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:14,359 Speaker 3: been validated by Russia's expansionism. Well, I just a couple oh, 705 00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,000 Speaker 3: I just want to finish that point, if I may 706 00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 3: like again. You say, Russia's greatest fear is NATO. Ukraine's 707 00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 3: greatest fear is Russia, who ended up being more justifle. 708 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:23,279 Speaker 4: Ok. 709 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 3: NATO hasn't invaded Russia. Russia did invade Ukraine. There's no 710 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,560 Speaker 3: getting away from it. At the end of the fear, 711 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,400 Speaker 3: this powder keg was ignited by Russia, and here we 712 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 3: are now today, with the gunpowder having already left the blaze, 713 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,239 Speaker 3: where do we move forward? Because I keep asking, I 714 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,759 Speaker 3: feel like we're always It's always, like I said before 715 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 3: we started the show. You may recall, whenever I debate Israel, 716 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 3: you say it's wrong to genocide these thirty thousand such 717 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,160 Speaker 3: and such Palestinians, And then the people you argue with 718 00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 3: the Zionist they'll go, oh, but what about Camp David? 719 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:53,480 Speaker 4: What about the accords? 720 00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,400 Speaker 3: They draw back into history because they want to avoid 721 00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,440 Speaker 3: the question today. They want to avoid and turn their 722 00:35:59,480 --> 00:35:59,879 Speaker 3: eyes away. 723 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 4: But I'm certainly not avoiding that question. 724 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 1: And as I just said a couple of minutes ago, 725 00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,719 Speaker 1: it was wrong for Vladimir Putin to invade and killing people, 726 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 1: right right? 727 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:08,239 Speaker 6: Oh? 728 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 4: I also answered that. 729 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,000 Speaker 1: But look this idea that, first of all, the concern 730 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,840 Speaker 1: from Vladimir Putin was never not even Vladimir Putin, the 731 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,839 Speaker 1: Russians in general. The concern was never as simple as 732 00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,560 Speaker 1: is NATO going to invade us? The concern was moving 733 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 1: military hardware closer and closer to Russia's borders. Okay, so 734 00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,040 Speaker 1: the concern is more akin to the Cuban missile crisis, 735 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,480 Speaker 1: not that we were ever worried Cuba was going to 736 00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,839 Speaker 1: invade US, but moving military hardware that close to our 737 00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,520 Speaker 1: borders was a legitimate concern and one that Jack Kennedy 738 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,560 Speaker 1: said he would blow up the world over. Most Americans, however, 739 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,319 Speaker 1: they feel about the Bay of Pigs, look at that 740 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:43,480 Speaker 1: is fairly justified. 741 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 4: That that was a threat. We couldn't live with a 742 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:46,680 Speaker 4: knife to our neck. 743 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:51,480 Speaker 1: Now to your point that Ukraine's biggest fear was Russia 744 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,839 Speaker 1: and that they just wanted to join NATO because they 745 00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,359 Speaker 1: had this fear of Russia, that's not exactly true. Like, 746 00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,400 Speaker 1: if you know the history of this situation, it was 747 00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,799 Speaker 1: in two thousand man, I think it's two thousand and eight, 748 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,400 Speaker 1: so it might have been two thousand and six, but 749 00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:10,239 Speaker 1: there was The State Department admitted that one of the 750 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,359 Speaker 1: big problems they had is that Ukrainian entry into NATO 751 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,600 Speaker 1: was just not popular in Ukraine. They estimated that it 752 00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,960 Speaker 1: was about thirty percent, and so they embarked on a campaign. 753 00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,799 Speaker 1: They literally said, we need the NED and we need 754 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:27,160 Speaker 1: the USAID to intervene more to get this support up 755 00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:32,080 Speaker 1: for NATO membership amongst the Ukrainians. It's not look, Yanikovich 756 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,240 Speaker 1: was elected in twenty ten. And this is these elections 757 00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,799 Speaker 1: were verified by the EU because we're all, you know, 758 00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,920 Speaker 1: neo conservatives are such believers in democracy, but only in 759 00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,080 Speaker 1: the places where we feel like we need to import 760 00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:47,359 Speaker 1: democracy too. I don't think not necessarily in Ukraine as 761 00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:51,040 Speaker 1: results well, okay, but I'm saying it's not as simple 762 00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,719 Speaker 1: as saying that overwhelmingly the Ukrainian people just wanted to 763 00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:59,799 Speaker 1: join NATO and DC was just you know, respecting the. 764 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:02,200 Speaker 4: Ukrainian vassals. 765 00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,880 Speaker 3: I'm never saying that the West is acting out of altruism. 766 00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:07,640 Speaker 3: I would never be that silly, and I'm not. 767 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,560 Speaker 1: That's not I'm saying that you're in Ukraine just wanted. 768 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,720 Speaker 4: To Russia wanted. 769 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 3: But let's turn the clock forward, right, The Russian economy 770 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,520 Speaker 3: was stalling, the EU's economy was booming. The Ukrainian people 771 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,120 Speaker 3: were more interested in economic ties with the EU than 772 00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,000 Speaker 3: they were with Russia. Yanokovich against the will of the people, 773 00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,440 Speaker 3: and yes, he was democratically elected. Democratically elected leaders can 774 00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,200 Speaker 3: do on popular things. That's life. He then turned towards 775 00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,440 Speaker 3: Russian and said, because Yanokovich wasn't, we don't have to 776 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 3: get into it. Let's say compromised by Russian interest. Uh, 777 00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:44,719 Speaker 3: the people revolted. America supported the Euromaidan revolt because we 778 00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:48,239 Speaker 3: were interested, of course in Ukraine having closer ties to us. 779 00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,360 Speaker 3: But nonetheless, and you can take a look at polling 780 00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:55,920 Speaker 3: from the time the Ukrainian discussed with Yuanokovic's decision was 781 00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,759 Speaker 3: authentic and widely reflected. Yanokovich fled, of course, fearing for 782 00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,360 Speaker 3: his life and well being. They took his little wealthy 783 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,680 Speaker 3: boy palace. And then after that, of course you have 784 00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 3: the annexation of Crimea and the separatist movement in the Donbass, 785 00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 3: which was of course heavily supported by Russia. And then 786 00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,800 Speaker 3: of course after that they want to join NATO because 787 00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,320 Speaker 3: they realized that the moment they do anything that Russia 788 00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,000 Speaker 3: doesn't like, Russia's just going to turn the military on them. 789 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,480 Speaker 4: Do you have to keep moving the clock forward? 790 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,799 Speaker 6: Let me just interject there and ask, So we're one 791 00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,320 Speaker 6: hundred and seventy five billion dollars into this as the 792 00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,799 Speaker 6: United States, the Ukrainian deathel is at least thirty one 793 00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,439 Speaker 6: thousand people. It's probably much much higher than that. Both 794 00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 6: sides minimum around one hundred thousand, but again probably according 795 00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,520 Speaker 6: to a lot of analysts, much much higher than that. 796 00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:46,239 Speaker 6: So to what extent can the United States? This is 797 00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,720 Speaker 6: like higher than the NASA budget last year? The amount 798 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:52,319 Speaker 6: of foreign aid we're sending to Ukraine? Is that just 799 00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:57,160 Speaker 6: the United States? It's spending that much US taxpayer money 800 00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,640 Speaker 6: to protect every inch of the don boss with no 801 00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,600 Speaker 6: plan perceived as of right now, ostensibly no serious plan 802 00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,920 Speaker 6: as to what a peace process would look like going forward. 803 00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:12,000 Speaker 6: Is that a just outcome for the American tax pay Oh? 804 00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 3: Look, every dollar we give to you Ukraine, we don't 805 00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,040 Speaker 3: give the Israel. Okay, So it's like it's like convince 806 00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:16,560 Speaker 3: your friends. 807 00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:18,080 Speaker 4: That's the best argument I've heard. 808 00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:19,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, right, it's like convincing your friend has put me 809 00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:25,560 Speaker 3: own cigarettes, not fentanyl. But I agree that Washington should 810 00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,800 Speaker 3: have a more decisive plan. The lack of a plan, 811 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:29,839 Speaker 3: which is a common pattern by the way, with both 812 00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:33,160 Speaker 3: the United States and alsodent in Yahoo. So not a 813 00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:37,360 Speaker 3: fan of that tendency on all sides is problematic to me. 814 00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,719 Speaker 3: Like I said, now, if we just froze the war 815 00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 3: where it is, because of course Russia, like Putin's peace 816 00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:45,359 Speaker 3: deals are basically just like forfeit the territory you've lost 817 00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,919 Speaker 3: up until this. They're not like real conciliatory deals, right, which, 818 00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,080 Speaker 3: of course Putin wants to keep the territory that he's stained. 819 00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,200 Speaker 3: I think that if we just took that, if we 820 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,960 Speaker 3: pressured Ukraine into taking that, a war would break out 821 00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 3: again within a year two years maybe because you would 822 00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:02,160 Speaker 3: have like the military build up on either side of 823 00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:07,040 Speaker 3: the DMC would be like the greatest Oh sorry. 824 00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:10,600 Speaker 5: Sorry, yeah, you started the conversation talking about not wanting 825 00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,920 Speaker 5: this to be a stalemate that goes on forever. So 826 00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:18,760 Speaker 5: you know, last year we had this much vaunted counter offensive. 827 00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:22,880 Speaker 5: At the time, there were tens of thousands of younger 828 00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,480 Speaker 5: Ukrainian troops who were alive and were well trained, they 829 00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:33,920 Speaker 5: were well equipped. They launched this massive, much anticipated counter offensive. 830 00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:38,720 Speaker 5: It was a complete disaster, led to an enormous loss 831 00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:43,440 Speaker 5: of life and a loss of equipment. And so to 832 00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,560 Speaker 5: your question of what do we do next, like why 833 00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:51,480 Speaker 5: is it the case that a new counter offensive with older, 834 00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:57,840 Speaker 5: less well trained Ukrainian troops and less well equipped troops 835 00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:02,360 Speaker 5: would be able to succeed against a more fortified Russian 836 00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:05,160 Speaker 5: military while the. 837 00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:06,520 Speaker 7: Previous one failed. 838 00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,600 Speaker 5: In other words, like what is this hail Mary that 839 00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,279 Speaker 5: you're talking about, that could change the calculation on the 840 00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,600 Speaker 5: ground to such an extent that it's worth it to 841 00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,800 Speaker 5: continue throwing Ukrainian men and women into. 842 00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:19,640 Speaker 7: The maw of this war. 843 00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:21,120 Speaker 4: Well, they don't. 844 00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,279 Speaker 3: I don't like the term throwing only because like they are, 845 00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,719 Speaker 3: of course, you know, engaged in it, right, They're not 846 00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:27,360 Speaker 3: just being. 847 00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,359 Speaker 5: They're being grabbed in many cases and literally throw forty 848 00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,120 Speaker 5: five year old men well literally threw. 849 00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:36,000 Speaker 3: Yes, Yes, Ukrainian morale are at least interesting continuing the 850 00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,440 Speaker 3: war is still high. But that sort of nitpick aside, 851 00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,759 Speaker 3: I would only say, I look, the hail Mary is 852 00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:42,200 Speaker 3: something that I hope for. It's not something that I 853 00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:45,080 Speaker 3: think is guaranteed. With the introduction of attackers and other 854 00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:48,760 Speaker 3: relatively long ranged, you know, munitions, we have the ability 855 00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:54,600 Speaker 3: to sort of provide Ukraine the option to strike at depots, 856 00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:59,359 Speaker 3: refineries and like facilities that are closer to the sort 857 00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:03,080 Speaker 3: of back lines of the conflict, and that has had 858 00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,080 Speaker 3: like a massive effect in the past four or five 859 00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,359 Speaker 3: months since that was introduced. I don't know whether that's 860 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,120 Speaker 3: going to be a game changer in the war in 861 00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,440 Speaker 3: the long run. I hope that it is, because ultimately 862 00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,160 Speaker 3: I do think that a conciliatory position from Russia would 863 00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,759 Speaker 3: be a better way of ending this conflict than one 864 00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:18,759 Speaker 3: in which things just freeze as they are now. The 865 00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,160 Speaker 3: DMZ build up along the line that people settled on 866 00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,799 Speaker 3: right now would be catastrophic, and I think it would 867 00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,759 Speaker 3: just guarantee further war. My hope, and this is I know, 868 00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:28,640 Speaker 3: perhaps a little naive of me, but I still have 869 00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:30,480 Speaker 3: a little bit in me that hopes for this. My 870 00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:37,520 Speaker 3: hope is that eventually, following the expansion of Ukraine's ability 871 00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,680 Speaker 3: to strike it further back targets, this becomes increasingly economically 872 00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,040 Speaker 3: untenable for Russia. There's pressure from both sides. Hey, this 873 00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,040 Speaker 3: has gone on long enough. We literally can't keep this 874 00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,880 Speaker 3: going anymore. We're both on fumes, and like two exhausted 875 00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,600 Speaker 3: boxers on the fourteenth round, they both clapsed into each 876 00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:57,160 Speaker 3: other's arms, and you know, they have a Christmas Day 877 00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,600 Speaker 3: in World War One, you know, there's a moment where, 878 00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,640 Speaker 3: for for a second, things get rough enough long enough 879 00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:04,880 Speaker 3: that they collapse and they just can't do it anymore, 880 00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,120 Speaker 3: and maybe the world like breaks a sigh of peace 881 00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,359 Speaker 3: as they finally do subtle on whatever line they're at. 882 00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,080 Speaker 4: At that point, I think it's quite a dangerous game 883 00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:12,560 Speaker 4: to play, man. 884 00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,959 Speaker 1: I mean, I know it was the all dangerous right well, sure, 885 00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:16,200 Speaker 1: but I'm just saying, you know, it was the neo 886 00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,239 Speaker 1: Kon's hope that if you overthrew Saddam Hussein, democracy would 887 00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:19,960 Speaker 1: sweep the region. 888 00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,200 Speaker 4: And you know that would have been nice, I guess, but. 889 00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,240 Speaker 1: You know, the hope that, oh, if they strike inside 890 00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,719 Speaker 1: of Russia, that will make Russia realize that, you know, 891 00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,600 Speaker 1: this war just has cost us a little bit too 892 00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,000 Speaker 1: much and we sure should knock off this war business. 893 00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:34,960 Speaker 4: That's quite a quite a risky game to play. There's 894 00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:36,399 Speaker 4: a couple of things that I want to eat. 895 00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,200 Speaker 1: So let me let me just respond to a couple 896 00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:39,759 Speaker 1: of things you said there, because the things that I 897 00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:44,759 Speaker 1: think are pretty interesting. So number one, just a couple 898 00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,400 Speaker 1: points of correction. I mean, I know I said it 899 00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,239 Speaker 1: was a good point in Jess, but now it's not 900 00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:51,239 Speaker 1: true that you know, the every dollar that goes to 901 00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:53,040 Speaker 1: Ukraine is a dollar that doesn't go to Israel. 902 00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:54,480 Speaker 4: I mean, as you know, we print. 903 00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,400 Speaker 1: Money out of thin air, and the US government is 904 00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,920 Speaker 1: quite fine to spend well beyond its means. So no, 905 00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,799 Speaker 1: they can they can deficit finance through fiat currency both 906 00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:03,560 Speaker 1: of these wars at. 907 00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:04,800 Speaker 4: The same time. Now, what I was gonna do to 908 00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,200 Speaker 4: our dollar equipment to not just money? Sure? 909 00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:10,280 Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, no, Mostly we're just bribing the military industrial 910 00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,840 Speaker 1: complex and sending old weapons over there. However, you know, 911 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:16,080 Speaker 1: there is as you brought up the talk of agency before, 912 00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,560 Speaker 1: it is true that individuals have agency. It's also true 913 00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,080 Speaker 1: that there's such a thing as moral hazard. So if 914 00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:25,919 Speaker 1: I were to just say I'll start giving a Ryan, 915 00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:28,040 Speaker 1: I'm gonna start giving you a million dollars a month, 916 00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:30,200 Speaker 1: and then you quit your job and you sit at home, 917 00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:31,520 Speaker 1: and I go, look, he doesn't want to work. 918 00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,399 Speaker 4: It doesn't want to work. He wants to stay home. 919 00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:35,640 Speaker 1: It doesn't want to It's like, well, yeah, okay, there 920 00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:37,719 Speaker 1: is some truth to that, but might that have you know, 921 00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,080 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians just want to fight, okay, but might that 922 00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,239 Speaker 1: have something to do with the blank check that they've 923 00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,120 Speaker 1: received from the world. So the whole point here, right, 924 00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,680 Speaker 1: is that and this is true with Israel and with Ukraine. 925 00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,920 Speaker 1: What happens is that when the biggest bully in the 926 00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,080 Speaker 1: history of the world, the US Empire, says we got 927 00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:56,600 Speaker 1: your back, people get a lot braver than they otherwise would. 928 00:45:56,680 --> 00:46:00,520 Speaker 1: If Israel didn't have unconditional support from the United States 929 00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:02,759 Speaker 1: of America, they'd be forced to make a deal with 930 00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:03,640 Speaker 1: some of their neighbors. 931 00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:04,520 Speaker 4: And same with Ukraine. 932 00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:06,200 Speaker 1: You know, you say, like, oh, if the war ended, 933 00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:08,920 Speaker 1: Ukraine would just be ready to fight Russia again in 934 00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,759 Speaker 1: a few years without our backing, without US arming them, 935 00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,960 Speaker 1: without all of Europe behind them. No, they wouldn't because 936 00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,239 Speaker 1: they know they couldn't possibly win. 937 00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,160 Speaker 6: Dave, what's a riskier game to play? I mean, I 938 00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:23,600 Speaker 6: think I know what your answer would be to this, 939 00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:27,719 Speaker 6: But what's a riskier game to play? Is it, you know, 940 00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:31,920 Speaker 6: allowing Putin to expand unchecked, just to go back to 941 00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:35,759 Speaker 6: the argument that Vash made earlier, or is it, you know, 942 00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,920 Speaker 6: escalating the war. It seems as though there are risks 943 00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:43,000 Speaker 6: in both scenarios, and why is one riskier than the 944 00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:44,160 Speaker 6: other at this point? 945 00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:48,919 Speaker 1: Well, look, I mean, okay, so the biggest risk that, again, 946 00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:50,480 Speaker 1: as I mentioned at the beginning, we should all be 947 00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,880 Speaker 1: concerned about, is the potential of nuclear war. And what's 948 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:59,480 Speaker 1: prevented the nuclear war in the past has been private negotiations, 949 00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:04,239 Speaker 1: handshake agreements and mutually assured destruction, the fact that you know, 950 00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,320 Speaker 1: nobody really wants to get into a nuclear exchange because 951 00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:11,480 Speaker 1: we all lose the only time, especially now, because the 952 00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:15,040 Speaker 1: current administration isn't doing handshake deals or even having conversations 953 00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:18,239 Speaker 1: behind the scenes with the Russians, the only thing that 954 00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,600 Speaker 1: could lead to a nuclear exchange. So, in other words, 955 00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:24,160 Speaker 1: the worst case scenario is that Vladimir Putin actually thinks 956 00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:26,600 Speaker 1: he's going to die. He thinks he's going to end 957 00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:31,239 Speaker 1: up like Momar Kadafi, And that's this scenario where you 958 00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:34,440 Speaker 1: might end up launching nukes because you know, screw it, 959 00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:37,080 Speaker 1: bring everybody down with you. In terms of the risk 960 00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:40,920 Speaker 1: of Russian expansion, I do think that Vous made a 961 00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:44,719 Speaker 1: somewhat fair point where look between the mix of this 962 00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,960 Speaker 1: is my point, not yours, but resulting in yours, between 963 00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:52,240 Speaker 1: the mix of NATO joint military exercises with the Ukrainian government, 964 00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:55,440 Speaker 1: the massive amounts of foreign aid, the weapons shipments that 965 00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:57,600 Speaker 1: Ukraine has got going back to before the invasion of 966 00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:01,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, but certainly since twenty twenty two, it 967 00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:05,439 Speaker 1: has made Ukraine a tougher adversary than they otherwise would 968 00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:08,080 Speaker 1: have been. Vladimir Putin famously said back in two thousand 969 00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:10,680 Speaker 1: and eight when he was warning Burns, who was the 970 00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:12,680 Speaker 1: ambassador of Rush at the time, but I could be 971 00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:16,160 Speaker 1: in Kiev in two weeks. Well, I don't think that's 972 00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:19,120 Speaker 1: true anymore. I think it's a tougher battle for him 973 00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,920 Speaker 1: than that. But then also you think, because he ends 974 00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:28,480 Speaker 1: up getting the eastern part of Ukraine that what he's 975 00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,800 Speaker 1: moving on Poland after that. I just think there's absolutely 976 00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:33,760 Speaker 1: no reason to think that that's the situation. 977 00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:36,520 Speaker 4: I don't think the bottom line. 978 00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:38,960 Speaker 6: Is that right next to Poland, it seems like, given 979 00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:42,520 Speaker 6: the history of NATO and everything else, that's pretty dangerous too. 980 00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:43,840 Speaker 4: Well, I don't know. 981 00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:45,600 Speaker 1: I mean, the whole argument that all of the people 982 00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,120 Speaker 1: who wanted to bring Ukraine into NATO made was that, well, 983 00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,560 Speaker 1: he won't attack them if they're in NATO country. Now 984 00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:52,799 Speaker 1: he's going to go after Poland. I just don't see 985 00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:54,879 Speaker 1: it as being very likely. I don't think the guy's 986 00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:58,879 Speaker 1: on a suicide mission. I think, as Burns told Condaliza 987 00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,279 Speaker 1: Rice that it wasn't for a suicide mission. It was 988 00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:03,600 Speaker 1: a choice they didn't want to have to make. That's 989 00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:07,640 Speaker 1: what our intelligence was saying at the time, and so no, 990 00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:10,880 Speaker 1: I don't think that there is to pretend. Look, I 991 00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:14,319 Speaker 1: think American expansionism has been more of a threat to 992 00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:18,520 Speaker 1: the American Republic than anything else. The idea that uten 993 00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,320 Speaker 1: is somehow some type of existential threat to America, I 994 00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:25,000 Speaker 1: think is aside from the nuclear question, just not true. 995 00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:28,840 Speaker 1: I think that there has been an effort for many 996 00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:32,479 Speaker 1: years now by the entire political class and the entire 997 00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:38,000 Speaker 1: corporate media to demonize Vladimir Putin in oftentimes the most cartoonish, 998 00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:42,000 Speaker 1: ridiculous ways. He stole the election in twenty sixteen, he's 999 00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:46,399 Speaker 1: got bounties on US soldiers heads in Afghanistan. Now, from 1000 00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:50,520 Speaker 1: our perspective here right, people like insay this alternative media 1001 00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,120 Speaker 1: space like Breaking Points is in, we all kind of 1002 00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,760 Speaker 1: laugh and mock this stuff, like, oh, it's so ridiculous. 1003 00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:57,840 Speaker 1: Look at how the cias lie in everybody and they 1004 00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,759 Speaker 1: actually fell for it, and look how it's been. But 1005 00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:05,280 Speaker 1: from Vladimir Putin's perspective, all of the most powerful people 1006 00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:08,320 Speaker 1: in the most war hungry, powerful country in the world 1007 00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:12,200 Speaker 1: have essentially been saying over and over again that he 1008 00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:14,480 Speaker 1: declared war on us. I mean, you guys, you tell me, 1009 00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:16,120 Speaker 1: because I know you guys have covered this stuff a lot. 1010 00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:17,920 Speaker 4: How many people in the corporate. 1011 00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,920 Speaker 1: Media and in the intelligence apparatus said that the fake 1012 00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:24,960 Speaker 1: overthrowing of the elections in twenty sixteen was worse than 1013 00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:28,360 Speaker 1: Pearl Harbor. They were saying out loud for years that 1014 00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:31,600 Speaker 1: he's declared war on US. Now, if you're Vladimir Putin, 1015 00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:33,640 Speaker 1: you can't just laugh at that. 1016 00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:35,920 Speaker 4: You have to take that seriously. 1017 00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:42,359 Speaker 1: It was William Perry, Bill Clinton's Defense secretary, who said 1018 00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:47,719 Speaker 1: that Vladimir Putin believes that it is the that the 1019 00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:51,160 Speaker 1: US policy is to overthrow Vladimir Putin. I don't know 1020 00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,600 Speaker 1: for sure whether he's right about that or wrong. It 1021 00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,080 Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me if he was right. That does sound 1022 00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:59,640 Speaker 1: a lot like my government. But that's the perspective that 1023 00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:01,640 Speaker 1: he's got to come to this from. And I think 1024 00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:04,359 Speaker 1: all it takes is as I believe, it was John 1025 00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:08,839 Speaker 1: Meherscheimer who coined the term strategic empathy, and that's all 1026 00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:10,960 Speaker 1: you kind of need in this In this scenario, it's 1027 00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:12,520 Speaker 1: not empathy for its own sake. 1028 00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:13,720 Speaker 4: It's strategic empathy. 1029 00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,640 Speaker 1: The same thing that you need to understand the Palestinians, 1030 00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,200 Speaker 1: the same thing you need to understand al Qaeda is 1031 00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,840 Speaker 1: that these I'm not saying they're good groups. Some of 1032 00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,000 Speaker 1: them are, you know, some of the Palestinians are good people, 1033 00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:26,240 Speaker 1: but some of them are are terrorist organizations. 1034 00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:29,360 Speaker 4: Al Qaeda is a terrorist organization. Vladimir Putin is a death. 1035 00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:33,839 Speaker 1: Spot, but they also can have legitimate grievances, and we 1036 00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:37,200 Speaker 1: ought to if if we want to ignore those, then okay, 1037 00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:38,880 Speaker 1: but we ignore those at our own peril. 1038 00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,920 Speaker 3: I just I just want to say, if I may like, respectfully, again, 1039 00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:45,439 Speaker 3: no talking about the present or what to do now. 1040 00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:48,959 Speaker 4: And this is my frustration firstation. I mean, oh, I'm sorry. 1041 00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:50,600 Speaker 4: I promise I'll be very very quick on this. 1042 00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:52,040 Speaker 1: But the other point that I just did want to 1043 00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:53,960 Speaker 1: make to you, as you bring that up again, it's 1044 00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:56,279 Speaker 1: actually not the case that when I have all of 1045 00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:59,560 Speaker 1: these Israel Palestine debates, that I want to talk about 1046 00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:01,600 Speaker 1: what's going on right now and they want to talk 1047 00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:03,439 Speaker 1: about all of the history that led to this point. 1048 00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:04,800 Speaker 4: It's actually quite the opposite. 1049 00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,840 Speaker 1: Sagar made this point when he moderated a debate recently 1050 00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:08,839 Speaker 1: for me on breaking Points. 1051 00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:10,319 Speaker 4: When he was recapping it the next day. 1052 00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:13,840 Speaker 1: The truth is that all of the pro Israel supporters 1053 00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:16,880 Speaker 1: want to just talk about October seventh to today, and 1054 00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,799 Speaker 1: everybody who's critical of Israel actually wants to go back 1055 00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:21,959 Speaker 1: through the history and talk about all of it, because yeah, 1056 00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:25,400 Speaker 1: it's important to understand the history to understand what position 1057 00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:25,719 Speaker 1: we're in. 1058 00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:26,000 Speaker 4: Now. 1059 00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,080 Speaker 5: Let me let me bring you up to this week, 1060 00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:33,160 Speaker 5: says you want to want to talk about today. So 1061 00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:39,200 Speaker 5: this is from earlier, earlier this week from Zelenski's top advisor. 1062 00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:42,080 Speaker 5: You probably saw this quote. He's got a couple others 1063 00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:44,880 Speaker 5: out there publicly. He's saying this in English, so we 1064 00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:48,839 Speaker 5: don't even have to hit the translate button, So very 1065 00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:52,280 Speaker 5: nice of him. After the attack on the beach in Crimea, 1066 00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:56,319 Speaker 5: he said quote, there are not and cannot be any 1067 00:52:56,600 --> 00:53:00,600 Speaker 5: beaches Taurus zones. Those are his quotes and other fictitious 1068 00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:05,000 Speaker 5: signs of quote peaceful life in Crimea. Crimea is definitely 1069 00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:09,040 Speaker 5: a foreign territory occupied by Russia where there are hostilities 1070 00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:11,840 Speaker 5: and a full scale war, the very war that Russia 1071 00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:16,239 Speaker 5: unleashed for genocidal and invasive purposes only. Crimea is also 1072 00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:20,000 Speaker 5: a large military camp and warehouse with hundreds of direct 1073 00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:23,879 Speaker 5: military targets which the Russians are cynically trying to hide 1074 00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:26,919 Speaker 5: and cover up with their own civilians, which in turn 1075 00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:30,640 Speaker 5: are considered to be civilian occupiers. So he said this 1076 00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:37,680 Speaker 5: after Ukraine killed civilians on the beach. So are we 1077 00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:38,520 Speaker 5: the batties here? 1078 00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:42,000 Speaker 3: I mean, it's almost a perfect mirror of rhetoric employed 1079 00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:46,560 Speaker 3: in the Hamas versus Israel conflict actually, where you know, 1080 00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:49,360 Speaker 3: when Hamas killed civilians on October seventh, the argument was 1081 00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:52,680 Speaker 3: that the civilians were settlers who were occupying stolen land, 1082 00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,400 Speaker 3: and therefore you can't like reasonably argue their civilians. And 1083 00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:57,040 Speaker 3: then on the other hand, of course you have like 1084 00:53:57,680 --> 00:54:00,040 Speaker 3: Israelis who say that like Hamas uses the palace in 1085 00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:02,360 Speaker 3: people as human shields in the West Bank, you of 1086 00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:06,560 Speaker 3: the argument. It's remarkable, actually how many parallels there are 1087 00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:08,879 Speaker 3: and how these are employed. Are we the baddies, Yes, 1088 00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:12,360 Speaker 3: we're all the batties. Nation states the batties. That sounds reductive, 1089 00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:14,160 Speaker 3: but that is just the way the game is played. 1090 00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:15,879 Speaker 3: You will never find the nations. 1091 00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:20,080 Speaker 5: There are ways to play the game without explicitly justifying 1092 00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:22,720 Speaker 5: the slaughter of civilians on a beach. 1093 00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:25,799 Speaker 3: But in practice, if you go back to basically any 1094 00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:28,719 Speaker 3: military conflict where existential threat was on the line, which 1095 00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:30,600 Speaker 3: it certainly is for Ukraine or is in the Israel 1096 00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:34,000 Speaker 3: Hamas conflict. You will see that this rhetoric and these 1097 00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:37,760 Speaker 3: standards are employed. This is not me arguing that it's justified. 1098 00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:41,439 Speaker 3: It's morally important because war demands abhorrence of the people 1099 00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:43,399 Speaker 3: who participate in it. You're not going to find any 1100 00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:46,040 Speaker 3: large scale conflict where stuff like this doesn't happen, which 1101 00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:46,920 Speaker 3: is why to me. 1102 00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,359 Speaker 5: The interesting question is it's not even a large scale 1103 00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:53,520 Speaker 5: conflict in Crimea like why part of the broader Ukraine. 1104 00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:56,960 Speaker 5: Why is the American public supposed to care all of 1105 00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:00,000 Speaker 5: a sudden that Russia controls Crimea like four years ago 1106 00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:03,120 Speaker 5: you would have been laughed at if you suggested that 1107 00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:06,160 Speaker 5: Ukraine ought to go to war to kick Russia out 1108 00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:06,880 Speaker 5: of Ukraine. 1109 00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:08,320 Speaker 4: Well, that's a separate question. 1110 00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:11,080 Speaker 3: The first one about like the abhorrence of this rhetoric, 1111 00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:13,319 Speaker 3: which by the way, I agree with. I just want 1112 00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:15,560 Speaker 3: to be clear that this is a consequence of like 1113 00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:17,920 Speaker 3: these heightened tensions, which is why I'm interested in what 1114 00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:20,359 Speaker 3: can be done to bring an end to this war, 1115 00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:23,720 Speaker 3: a permanent end, not some middling ceasefire that gets broken 1116 00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:26,520 Speaker 3: almost immediately. In terms of whether or not America should care. 1117 00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:27,080 Speaker 4: I don't know. 1118 00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:29,640 Speaker 3: The average American couldn't find Kabul on a map. You know, 1119 00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:31,880 Speaker 3: the average American doesn't care about anything outside of their 1120 00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:34,600 Speaker 3: own tax breaks. My interest in what the average American 1121 00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:37,040 Speaker 3: cares about is nil. The average American doesn't care about 1122 00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,120 Speaker 3: the homeless. Why should I care about what they care about? 1123 00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:42,680 Speaker 4: What I care about? Nuclear? What's good? They sometimes they do. 1124 00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:44,799 Speaker 3: I don't know the average American with the state of 1125 00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:48,160 Speaker 3: our education, I care about what's good. Nuclear war's bad. 1126 00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:49,840 Speaker 3: By the way, that's where I land in that particular 1127 00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:53,920 Speaker 3: moral equivalence. I think that if we settle with an 1128 00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:59,880 Speaker 3: unjust tense quiet with the Russia Ukraine conflict, we guarantee future. 1129 00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:03,080 Speaker 3: If you look, why would the history of expansionist empires. 1130 00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:04,600 Speaker 3: If you take a look at what Russia is doing 1131 00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:07,000 Speaker 3: now and compare it to the rhetoric employed by other 1132 00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:10,960 Speaker 3: nations that have annexed adjacent territory, you will find they 1133 00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:14,280 Speaker 3: tend not to quit while they're ahead. There's a pattern 1134 00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:15,480 Speaker 3: of over extension. 1135 00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:18,480 Speaker 5: Let me ask you so on on this piece. You 1136 00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,880 Speaker 5: know you hoped that, you know, if there's enough fighting, 1137 00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:24,799 Speaker 5: that eventually these two fighters will become exhausted and kind 1138 00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:28,200 Speaker 5: of peace will break out. But you've also said that 1139 00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:32,200 Speaker 5: if we get a peace deal, then war will eventually 1140 00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:32,759 Speaker 5: break out. 1141 00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:34,520 Speaker 7: So why would the peace from. 1142 00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:39,839 Speaker 5: Exhaustion not just lead to your your fear that two 1143 00:56:39,920 --> 00:56:42,520 Speaker 5: years later war would break out again, Because I think 1144 00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:45,719 Speaker 5: it means only war is the only logical endpoint of 1145 00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:46,640 Speaker 5: your position. 1146 00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,359 Speaker 3: Heretion, I think it needs to be a peace deal 1147 00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:52,279 Speaker 3: that the Russian and Ukrainian people are happy with. Right now, 1148 00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,719 Speaker 3: we haven't even gotten close to finding that point, which 1149 00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:57,120 Speaker 3: means the only real end to the conflict would be 1150 00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,120 Speaker 3: the complete annexation of Ukraine and the annihilation of all 1151 00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:02,600 Speaker 3: the militias and insurgency groups within it, which would be 1152 00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:06,560 Speaker 3: very difficult considering the fact that Russia has logistical breakdowns 1153 00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:09,719 Speaker 3: fifty miles out of their border, or Ukraine retaking all 1154 00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:12,239 Speaker 3: of its territory, which is at the moment basically unthinkable. 1155 00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:14,320 Speaker 3: It doesn't seem like there's any end to the conflict 1156 00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:16,680 Speaker 3: right now outside of something that could be imposed by 1157 00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:21,680 Speaker 3: a kind of international move to sort of like solidify 1158 00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:23,560 Speaker 3: the line where it is now, and I do think 1159 00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:25,280 Speaker 3: that would just lead to more peace in the future. 1160 00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:27,480 Speaker 3: That's my question, and I don't come to this with 1161 00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:29,600 Speaker 3: a solution. By the way, if I had a solution, 1162 00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:31,200 Speaker 3: or if anyone did, I think you'd be hearing them 1163 00:57:31,240 --> 00:57:33,200 Speaker 3: preaching it a lot more often. I don't like the 1164 00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:35,720 Speaker 3: idea of treating this like team sports or like you know, 1165 00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:38,400 Speaker 3: well in actuality, like we could have prevented this if 1166 00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:41,439 Speaker 3: we went back twenty thirty forty years. I know there's 1167 00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:42,880 Speaker 3: a lot of other cool stuff we could have done. 1168 00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:45,160 Speaker 3: We could have invested in, like Apple early too. 1169 00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:47,760 Speaker 6: Let's say it. Let's say the US tripled the NASA 1170 00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:49,880 Speaker 6: budget and sent it all to Ukraine. Do you think 1171 00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:51,720 Speaker 6: that would be too much US support? 1172 00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:55,840 Speaker 3: I mean, if we oversupport Ukraine, if we commit to 1173 00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,840 Speaker 3: it so hard that Ukraine starts pushing back further. My 1174 00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:02,080 Speaker 3: concern would be that the the brass in Ukraine would 1175 00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:04,720 Speaker 3: get arrogant and start pushing into Russia. I don't think 1176 00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:08,200 Speaker 3: that's especially likely. Certainly, Ukraine doesn't have the same sort 1177 00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:13,720 Speaker 3: of legacy and cultural pretext of expansionist sentiment the way 1178 00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:16,960 Speaker 3: that Putin does, but it's possible. I also disagree, by 1179 00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:18,400 Speaker 3: the way, with the strike they did on some of 1180 00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:21,720 Speaker 3: those early warning systems. You showed an article with that 1181 00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:25,040 Speaker 3: headline a little bit ago. I think that's dangerous territory. 1182 00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:28,840 Speaker 3: I don't think that Ukraine has been particularly irresponsible in 1183 00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:31,960 Speaker 3: this conflict, as military conflicts go, and that's a pretty 1184 00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:34,640 Speaker 3: low bar. I do think that there's a risk the 1185 00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:36,560 Speaker 3: more we gin them up, the more gung ho they get, 1186 00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:38,840 Speaker 3: and I think that risk increases the longer this goes 1187 00:58:38,880 --> 00:58:43,760 Speaker 3: on too. So again, we either let Ukraine get washed entirely. 1188 00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:45,320 Speaker 3: I don't even know if Russia could do that at 1189 00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:48,520 Speaker 3: this point, even if we divested from Ukraine, we sort 1190 00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:52,120 Speaker 3: of pressure Ukraine to accept the Russian peace steel as 1191 00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:54,760 Speaker 3: it is now, or we overinvest to the point where 1192 00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:56,960 Speaker 3: they can reclaim their borders, which, given enough time and 1193 00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:59,560 Speaker 3: enough money, you know, we unleash Area fifty one on 1194 00:58:59,640 --> 00:59:02,480 Speaker 3: the Russia, and sure maybe Ukraine could do it. Of 1195 00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:04,960 Speaker 3: these three options, which is the most likely to bring 1196 00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:07,800 Speaker 3: about the fewest deaths the lowest likelihood of long term 1197 00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:11,160 Speaker 3: nuclear conflict. In my opinion, the path will get clearer 1198 00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:14,120 Speaker 3: the more time goes on, because we will increasingly test 1199 00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:18,440 Speaker 3: the willingness of the Russian people to support this ongoing engagement. 1200 00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:21,600 Speaker 3: That sounds horrible. I think this is a horrible situation. 1201 00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:24,600 Speaker 3: That's not me blaming anyone involved, the Pentagon, the Kremlin, 1202 00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:28,800 Speaker 3: whatever else. It's a horrible humanitarian nightmare, but it's also 1203 00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:31,160 Speaker 3: a pretty difficult one to manage. You know. You look 1204 00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:33,320 Speaker 3: back at history and there are empires that we're clashing 1205 00:59:33,480 --> 00:59:36,480 Speaker 3: with each other for centuries, over and over again, borders 1206 00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:39,720 Speaker 3: barely changing with each successive war. I don't want that 1207 00:59:39,800 --> 00:59:42,560 Speaker 3: to happen here, not just because we've got nuclear powers involved, 1208 00:59:42,560 --> 00:59:46,000 Speaker 3: but because, like it is a collective drain on these spiritual, 1209 00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:50,320 Speaker 3: financial and military collective of humanity. I just don't want 1210 00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:53,160 Speaker 3: to come at it from a dogmatic position, because I 1211 00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:56,400 Speaker 3: don't want to blind myself to avenues of peace that 1212 00:59:56,480 --> 00:59:59,200 Speaker 3: might be unintuitive. 1213 01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:03,760 Speaker 5: Were running up against our time limit here. But Dave 1214 01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:05,800 Speaker 5: any kind of final thoughts you'd want to have on 1215 01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:09,240 Speaker 5: how this ought to end, like from your perspective to 1216 01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:11,439 Speaker 5: Vosh's question, what do we do now? 1217 01:00:12,160 --> 01:00:13,160 Speaker 4: Sure? Okay? 1218 01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:14,880 Speaker 1: Well, first of all, I would just say that I 1219 01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:18,040 Speaker 1: don't think Ukraine has been very responsible throughout this whole thing, 1220 01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:22,000 Speaker 1: and certainly when their missiles hit Poland and Zelensky immediately 1221 01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:26,280 Speaker 1: called for preemptive attacks on Russia by the West, either 1222 01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:29,760 Speaker 1: either lying through his teeth and claiming it was Russia 1223 01:00:29,760 --> 01:00:33,800 Speaker 1: who attacked Poland, or being so clueless that he hadn't 1224 01:00:33,840 --> 01:00:36,920 Speaker 1: even done any investigation to figure out whether it was 1225 01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:37,320 Speaker 1: them or not. 1226 01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:39,320 Speaker 4: Either way, it seems pretty irresponsible to me. 1227 01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:43,200 Speaker 1: But look, without even going back into ancient history, like 1228 01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:46,520 Speaker 1: just going back to very recent history. 1229 01:00:46,480 --> 01:00:51,040 Speaker 4: It was Jens Straltenburg. I apologize to the Norwegians. 1230 01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:56,080 Speaker 1: I know I'm butchering that he gave the whole game 1231 01:00:56,120 --> 01:01:00,640 Speaker 1: away last year, but he admitted that Vladimir And actually 1232 01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:03,440 Speaker 1: sent them a draft treaty and said, if you just 1233 01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:07,080 Speaker 1: promised to not bring Ukraine into NATO, I won't invade. 1234 01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:12,200 Speaker 1: And he brags that they said, no, we won't sign that. Haha. 1235 01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:14,360 Speaker 1: You didn't want NATO expansion and look at you. Now 1236 01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:17,480 Speaker 1: you're getting more NATO expansion. It's like yeah, and hundreds 1237 01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:20,120 Speaker 1: of thousands of Ukrainians dead, Like, could we at least 1238 01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:22,880 Speaker 1: all agree that we should have just signed that treaty? 1239 01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:26,040 Speaker 1: Why is it a vital strategic interest to the United 1240 01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:29,920 Speaker 1: States of America that we have a war guarantee with Ukraine? 1241 01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:32,240 Speaker 4: Like what how many people in America? 1242 01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:35,160 Speaker 1: It's like George Kennon said back in the first round 1243 01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:39,520 Speaker 1: of NATO expansion. We have neither the political will nor 1244 01:01:39,600 --> 01:01:43,680 Speaker 1: the resources to actually defend these countries. How many people 1245 01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:47,400 Speaker 1: in America actually would be willing to sacrifice themselves or 1246 01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:51,720 Speaker 1: their children to make sure that the Donbass region is 1247 01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:54,640 Speaker 1: ruled by Kiev? Would you guys be willing to sacrifice 1248 01:01:54,680 --> 01:01:55,080 Speaker 1: your kids? 1249 01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:55,920 Speaker 4: This is that ridiculous. 1250 01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:59,080 Speaker 3: Anyone here The average American wouldn't sacrifice their lives to 1251 01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:01,360 Speaker 3: protect East German or Poland either. Do you think the 1252 01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:06,120 Speaker 3: average American would fight for warsaw? This report doesn't. That's fencing, 1253 01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:06,920 Speaker 3: but it's empty. 1254 01:02:07,080 --> 01:02:09,760 Speaker 4: Now, let me explain. 1255 01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:13,120 Speaker 3: What you will explain to me. I'm what you want 1256 01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:14,880 Speaker 3: today too. I'm gonna finish. 1257 01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:17,480 Speaker 4: I keep talking about it today, and then you keep 1258 01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:19,280 Speaker 4: talking about NATO, NATO, NATO. 1259 01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:23,880 Speaker 3: We know I addressed and acknowledged and agreed with. 1260 01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:26,800 Speaker 1: You're interrupting me and then claiming I'm not addressing something. 1261 01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:28,400 Speaker 1: So first, I was just saying, could we at least 1262 01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:30,919 Speaker 1: all agree that a couple of years ago we should 1263 01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:32,920 Speaker 1: have just signed that deal and committed to not bringing 1264 01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:34,720 Speaker 1: Ukraine into NATO and avoided this war. 1265 01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:40,800 Speaker 4: Couldn't invaded anyway? Huh? Couldn't Russia have just invaded anyway. 1266 01:02:41,520 --> 01:02:43,919 Speaker 1: Sure, I guess in the worst case scenario it would 1267 01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:48,320 Speaker 1: be as bad as it's not that you're laughing, but 1268 01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:51,040 Speaker 1: there's no point to that. Yes, in the worst area, 1269 01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:53,959 Speaker 1: we could have still ended talk about what we can Okay, 1270 01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:57,200 Speaker 1: let me please, okay, okay, fsh let me just make 1271 01:02:57,200 --> 01:03:00,320 Speaker 1: my point instead of this constant interrupting listen. Yes, in 1272 01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:02,560 Speaker 1: the worst case scenario, I suppose it could have gone 1273 01:03:02,560 --> 01:03:05,000 Speaker 1: as bad as it did in this scenario, but obviously 1274 01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,880 Speaker 1: the overwhelming odds or that it wouldn't have come to this. 1275 01:03:08,160 --> 01:03:10,440 Speaker 1: Now in terms of your point of saying, like, well, 1276 01:03:10,480 --> 01:03:13,880 Speaker 1: the average American isn't willing to go die for Germany 1277 01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:17,040 Speaker 1: or Poland, Okay, but so why are we adding more 1278 01:03:17,040 --> 01:03:20,520 Speaker 1: of these countries, especially when our own intelligence community is 1279 01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:22,840 Speaker 1: telling us that the risk of adding this other nation 1280 01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:26,200 Speaker 1: that American's carabout even less, the risk of it could 1281 01:03:26,240 --> 01:03:29,480 Speaker 1: result in this war very explicitly blatantly saying that. Now, 1282 01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:32,600 Speaker 1: look again, I do think I actually answered this question 1283 01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:36,000 Speaker 1: pretty clearly pretty early on in this But right now, 1284 01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:40,680 Speaker 1: what we should do, being educated by what's happened in 1285 01:03:40,680 --> 01:03:44,520 Speaker 1: the very recent past, is to go, hey, America is 1286 01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:47,240 Speaker 1: going to announce that we will pull all of our 1287 01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:51,160 Speaker 1: support for Ukraine in this war under the condition that 1288 01:03:51,280 --> 01:03:55,160 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin accepts some type of peace proposal. That's going 1289 01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:57,919 Speaker 1: to look like not quite as good as Ukraine would 1290 01:03:57,960 --> 01:03:59,560 Speaker 1: have gotten if they had taken the deal at Boris 1291 01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:02,680 Speaker 1: Johnson broke up. But it's going to look like Vladimir 1292 01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:06,600 Speaker 1: Putin obviously keeping Primea, obviously keeping some of the part 1293 01:04:06,680 --> 01:04:09,440 Speaker 1: some of the territories that he's he already has control of, 1294 01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:13,640 Speaker 1: and in exchange for him ending the war, we promised 1295 01:04:13,640 --> 01:04:16,400 Speaker 1: that Ukraine will not be admitted into NATO. 1296 01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:18,320 Speaker 4: That deal is still possible. 1297 01:04:18,600 --> 01:04:20,720 Speaker 1: Listen, let me just add one final point to this, 1298 01:04:20,760 --> 01:04:22,560 Speaker 1: and then we could you can respond however you want. 1299 01:04:22,760 --> 01:04:26,480 Speaker 1: Understand something here, the United States of America holds all 1300 01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:29,680 Speaker 1: of the chips. We could offer Vladimir Putin something that 1301 01:04:29,720 --> 01:04:32,480 Speaker 1: would probably get him to do whatever we wanted him 1302 01:04:32,520 --> 01:04:34,680 Speaker 1: to do. And you know what, that is the ultimate 1303 01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:38,160 Speaker 1: crowning jewel for him. How about we leave NATO if 1304 01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:41,960 Speaker 1: you end this war right now, America will withdraw from NATO. 1305 01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:46,120 Speaker 4: Why not internet rhetoric that it's not. 1306 01:04:47,880 --> 01:04:51,640 Speaker 3: We're you know this is this is like this is 1307 01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:57,600 Speaker 3: like you know, like literally, what if we left the 1308 01:04:58,040 --> 01:05:01,600 Speaker 3: key military alliance on the planet to incentivize a desperate 1309 01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:03,560 Speaker 3: on the other side of the world to not invade 1310 01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:09,200 Speaker 3: the country they unjustly. No, no, no, no, it's it's good 1311 01:05:09,200 --> 01:05:12,360 Speaker 3: for Twitter likes, it's great for like the ultra libertarians 1312 01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:15,920 Speaker 3: who are all like keenly interested in you Knowkovic's like 1313 01:05:16,040 --> 01:05:20,640 Speaker 3: electoral legitimacy. Uh, it's not reality. You suggest that you 1314 01:05:21,480 --> 01:05:25,480 Speaker 3: pointested that we offered a poll. Uh, there was support 1315 01:05:25,520 --> 01:05:27,880 Speaker 3: from Ukraine in exchange for a peace deal. Okay, fine, 1316 01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:31,000 Speaker 3: so let's finally talk about that. Then what happens then 1317 01:05:31,320 --> 01:05:34,760 Speaker 3: if that divestment occurs naturally there's a DMZ of course 1318 01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:36,720 Speaker 3: there would be, right, and then you have a build 1319 01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:39,480 Speaker 3: up of the remaining Ukrainian troops and Russia's troops on 1320 01:05:39,560 --> 01:05:42,080 Speaker 3: both sides. Don't you think it's likely that given a 1321 01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:45,520 Speaker 3: piece deal that takes place under those circumstances, eventually like 1322 01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:48,240 Speaker 3: the conflict would spark again. And this time, what are 1323 01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:50,760 Speaker 3: we going to do provide a to Ukraine again when 1324 01:05:50,800 --> 01:05:51,960 Speaker 3: Russia again. 1325 01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:57,600 Speaker 6: Respond to conflict like the ongoing slog for another couple 1326 01:05:57,600 --> 01:05:58,440 Speaker 6: of years, I mean. 1327 01:05:59,680 --> 01:06:03,560 Speaker 3: To the path through that allows the peace feal to 1328 01:06:03,600 --> 01:06:05,920 Speaker 3: take place in a way that doesn't guarantee an immediate 1329 01:06:05,920 --> 01:06:09,040 Speaker 3: future conflict. So if we pursue an unjust piece that 1330 01:06:09,120 --> 01:06:12,360 Speaker 3: is immediately broken, it will have been for nothing and 1331 01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:14,440 Speaker 3: will be in a worse position than we were before. 1332 01:06:14,560 --> 01:06:16,920 Speaker 3: Because nobody's going to want to stop the second version 1333 01:06:16,920 --> 01:06:19,560 Speaker 3: of the conflict five days after it starts. We need 1334 01:06:19,560 --> 01:06:20,480 Speaker 3: to be careful with this. 1335 01:06:20,720 --> 01:06:23,680 Speaker 6: So first of all, let me just say that will 1336 01:06:23,680 --> 01:06:24,880 Speaker 6: close with a response from you. 1337 01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:29,440 Speaker 1: Okay, So I think that Vousch's response of like, oh, 1338 01:06:29,480 --> 01:06:32,240 Speaker 1: this is just what internet libertarians care about or something 1339 01:06:32,280 --> 01:06:33,720 Speaker 1: like that. I just think there was a lot of 1340 01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:38,080 Speaker 1: words without you actually saying anything there. NATO was created 1341 01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:42,000 Speaker 1: after World War Two because we had the Soviet Union 1342 01:06:42,040 --> 01:06:45,600 Speaker 1: controlling half of Europe and the West and Western Europe 1343 01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:48,800 Speaker 1: had been destroyed. It was in utter ruins, and so 1344 01:06:48,920 --> 01:06:52,240 Speaker 1: we felt like we had to subsidize the defense of 1345 01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:55,720 Speaker 1: Western Europe to make sure that this very clearly expansion 1346 01:06:55,720 --> 01:06:59,200 Speaker 1: has powered the Soviet Union didn't expand into Western Europe 1347 01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:03,680 Speaker 1: at this point. Today, Western Europe is rich and we 1348 01:07:03,800 --> 01:07:07,040 Speaker 1: are thirty four trillion dollars in debt. It makes absolutely 1349 01:07:07,080 --> 01:07:09,720 Speaker 1: no sense. And by the way, Soviet Union doesn't exist anymore. 1350 01:07:09,880 --> 01:07:12,480 Speaker 1: There is no reason for NATO to exist. There's no 1351 01:07:12,560 --> 01:07:14,120 Speaker 1: reason for the US to be a part of it. 1352 01:07:14,320 --> 01:07:17,040 Speaker 1: The former president of the United States of America and 1353 01:07:17,080 --> 01:07:19,720 Speaker 1: the current front runner to be President of the United 1354 01:07:19,760 --> 01:07:23,600 Speaker 1: States of America again has made this point many, many times. 1355 01:07:23,720 --> 01:07:26,560 Speaker 1: This is not just something for Internet libertarians to be 1356 01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:29,400 Speaker 1: interested in. This is something that should be a serious 1357 01:07:29,440 --> 01:07:32,959 Speaker 1: conversation amongst the American people. And by the way, during 1358 01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:36,120 Speaker 1: the fall when the Soviet Union collapsed, there were many 1359 01:07:36,240 --> 01:07:40,120 Speaker 1: of the wisest gray bears in the American security establishment 1360 01:07:40,280 --> 01:07:43,400 Speaker 1: who felt the same way, who felt that, okay, the mission. 1361 01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:43,880 Speaker 4: Of NATO is over. 1362 01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:46,600 Speaker 1: Anyway, to your next point, again, this is just an 1363 01:07:46,680 --> 01:07:49,120 Speaker 1: empty argument. You could say this about any peace deal. 1364 01:07:49,320 --> 01:07:52,400 Speaker 1: Well what if war breaks out again? Well okay, but 1365 01:07:52,480 --> 01:07:55,919 Speaker 1: if your worst case scenario is war breaks out, your 1366 01:07:55,920 --> 01:07:59,000 Speaker 1: solution is to continue supporting the war. We want to 1367 01:07:59,040 --> 01:08:02,480 Speaker 1: continue the war because we're afraid of war. Listen, if 1368 01:08:02,480 --> 01:08:05,640 Speaker 1: we actually as I just mentioned, which is a serious proposal, 1369 01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:08,200 Speaker 1: we have the ultimate chip here. We have the chip 1370 01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:11,240 Speaker 1: that could allow Vladimir Putin to claim, hey, I won, 1371 01:08:12,040 --> 01:08:14,040 Speaker 1: which is what you want. In these situations, you want 1372 01:08:14,080 --> 01:08:16,400 Speaker 1: to let everyone save face. You want to allow the 1373 01:08:16,479 --> 01:08:18,519 Speaker 1: Ukrainians to say, hey, we thought and we kept this 1374 01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:20,919 Speaker 1: part of our territory. You want to allow the Russians 1375 01:08:20,920 --> 01:08:22,599 Speaker 1: to say, hey, we were pushed into this, but we 1376 01:08:22,600 --> 01:08:25,360 Speaker 1: were victorious. You want to let everybody save face and 1377 01:08:25,439 --> 01:08:27,800 Speaker 1: come up with some type of deal. And yes, Vosh, 1378 01:08:27,960 --> 01:08:30,759 Speaker 1: you can make the point that it's never one million 1379 01:08:30,800 --> 01:08:33,800 Speaker 1: percent guaranteed that it'll hold in another war won't break out, 1380 01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:36,320 Speaker 1: but it's a hell of a lot more likely than 1381 01:08:36,400 --> 01:08:39,640 Speaker 1: continuing the war. So the point is you want to 1382 01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:42,920 Speaker 1: come up with a deal that's realistic that could maybe hold. 1383 01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:45,080 Speaker 1: And I do think that America is all the leverage 1384 01:08:45,080 --> 01:08:46,240 Speaker 1: in the world to make that happen. 1385 01:08:47,520 --> 01:08:51,120 Speaker 3: And if I may, I'll just say that, like, no, 1386 01:08:51,280 --> 01:08:53,559 Speaker 3: the idea of holding out for a good piece, one 1387 01:08:53,560 --> 01:08:57,160 Speaker 3: that actually incentivizes both parties to hand like keep their 1388 01:08:57,160 --> 01:08:59,720 Speaker 3: hands off, rather than just the first piece that comes up, 1389 01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:02,680 Speaker 3: is a good instinct. The idea that there is no 1390 01:09:02,760 --> 01:09:07,880 Speaker 3: difference between a piece deal that immediately breaks down and like, 1391 01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:10,599 Speaker 3: you know, a war that continues until a good piece 1392 01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:13,559 Speaker 3: is found. There is a massive difference between these. You know, 1393 01:09:13,800 --> 01:09:16,040 Speaker 3: look at the multiple attempts at securing peace between the 1394 01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:18,840 Speaker 3: Ukrainians and the Russians over the twenty fourteen invasion of 1395 01:09:18,880 --> 01:09:22,400 Speaker 3: the Dunbass. Right, you know, terms are set, conditions are 1396 01:09:22,400 --> 01:09:25,719 Speaker 3: then not met by either side, and then nothing changes, 1397 01:09:25,800 --> 01:09:29,040 Speaker 3: cementing a course of action that continued down eight years 1398 01:09:29,120 --> 01:09:31,000 Speaker 3: until the proper invasion by Russia began. 1399 01:09:31,320 --> 01:09:32,719 Speaker 4: You need to find a good piece. 1400 01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:35,000 Speaker 3: I don't know where that path lies, which means that 1401 01:09:35,040 --> 01:09:37,760 Speaker 3: I don't have the convenient, simple answer of saying, what 1402 01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:40,559 Speaker 3: if we just divested, left NATO and the hope that 1403 01:09:40,560 --> 01:09:43,960 Speaker 3: Putin never invaded the remains of Ukraine again. I think 1404 01:09:43,960 --> 01:09:45,800 Speaker 3: that's a very easy thing to say. I think that 1405 01:09:45,840 --> 01:09:48,559 Speaker 3: it's good for like getting up populist fervor. I think 1406 01:09:48,600 --> 01:09:50,400 Speaker 3: it sounds compelling. I think it would do nothing. I 1407 01:09:50,400 --> 01:09:53,120 Speaker 3: think it's a virtue signal. After all, America is in 1408 01:09:53,200 --> 01:09:56,840 Speaker 3: NATO as a formality, Like most many nations that are 1409 01:09:56,880 --> 01:09:59,200 Speaker 3: in NATO don't even meet the required two point five 1410 01:09:59,240 --> 01:10:01,639 Speaker 3: percent GDP millilitary expenditure that they need to be there. 1411 01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:05,800 Speaker 3: NATO is just a cementing of existing alliances. Do you 1412 01:10:05,800 --> 01:10:07,679 Speaker 3: think we still wouldn't go to war with the interests 1413 01:10:07,680 --> 01:10:10,160 Speaker 3: of say Britain or Germany or France. Of course we would, 1414 01:10:10,200 --> 01:10:14,120 Speaker 3: because we're still allies. NATO's just the framework built around it. 1415 01:10:14,320 --> 01:10:19,400 Speaker 3: The real, true underlying force, which has shared geopolitical interest persists. Nonetheless, 1416 01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:22,479 Speaker 3: what would keep Putin from invading again? In my mind 1417 01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:25,280 Speaker 3: it would be promises from the West, but not promises 1418 01:10:25,320 --> 01:10:28,040 Speaker 3: of devestment. We shouldn't just leave Ukraine weak and open 1419 01:10:28,080 --> 01:10:30,360 Speaker 3: to being invaded again, because again, if they just break 1420 01:10:30,400 --> 01:10:32,719 Speaker 3: the peace and conquer the rest of Ukraine after giving 1421 01:10:32,720 --> 01:10:35,320 Speaker 3: it a year or two to rearm on the Russian front, 1422 01:10:35,479 --> 01:10:38,559 Speaker 3: what do we get then? Well, obviously the Ukrainian people 1423 01:10:38,640 --> 01:10:42,160 Speaker 3: are conquered and they are subject to a great many. 1424 01:10:43,640 --> 01:10:45,080 Speaker 4: Violences and humiliations. 1425 01:10:45,080 --> 01:10:47,960 Speaker 3: But in addition to that, of course, we continue to 1426 01:10:48,000 --> 01:10:51,080 Speaker 3: sort of throw fuel into the fire of an expansionist empire. 1427 01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:54,240 Speaker 3: Putin's intentions on this are not subtle. He was invoking 1428 01:10:54,320 --> 01:10:56,800 Speaker 3: the borders of the Russian Empire when he began the 1429 01:10:56,840 --> 01:10:59,439 Speaker 3: invasion of Ukraine. I do not think there's any reason 1430 01:10:59,479 --> 01:11:02,240 Speaker 3: to believe that he would be like sated after he 1431 01:11:02,479 --> 01:11:04,400 Speaker 3: made his way all the way over to Poland. What 1432 01:11:04,560 --> 01:11:08,639 Speaker 3: I want is real reconciliation, not just between Ukraine and Russia, 1433 01:11:08,760 --> 01:11:12,000 Speaker 3: but the West in Russia. Russia has been, let's be 1434 01:11:12,120 --> 01:11:16,400 Speaker 3: real here, a nuclear missile ridden backwater since the end 1435 01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:22,480 Speaker 3: of the Soviet Union. Prostitution skyrocketed, child sex trafficking skyrocketed 1436 01:11:22,520 --> 01:11:25,440 Speaker 3: after the end of the Soviet Union. Their economy in shambles. 1437 01:11:25,479 --> 01:11:28,839 Speaker 3: Oligarchs effectively rule the country. There are many many Russians 1438 01:11:28,840 --> 01:11:31,200 Speaker 3: who don't even have indoor plumbing. I think that a 1439 01:11:31,280 --> 01:11:34,240 Speaker 3: promise of shared investment the thing we never did after 1440 01:11:34,240 --> 01:11:36,719 Speaker 3: the end of the Cold War, and not just business investment, 1441 01:11:36,760 --> 01:11:39,160 Speaker 3: not just Coca Cola opening up a factory. 1442 01:11:38,840 --> 01:11:39,719 Speaker 4: I mean real. 1443 01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:43,719 Speaker 3: You don't want the American taxpayer spending money on Ukrainian weapons, Okay, 1444 01:11:43,720 --> 01:11:45,800 Speaker 3: I got a better idea for you, three times as 1445 01:11:45,880 --> 01:11:49,120 Speaker 3: much money on Russian economic. 1446 01:11:50,520 --> 01:11:51,560 Speaker 4: You know, reinvestment. 1447 01:11:52,000 --> 01:11:53,960 Speaker 3: Give it, Give it to them to work with build 1448 01:11:54,000 --> 01:11:56,720 Speaker 3: real economic bonds. One of the reasons Taiwan hasn't been 1449 01:11:56,720 --> 01:11:59,960 Speaker 3: invaded yet is because China and America are so integrated economic. 1450 01:12:00,479 --> 01:12:02,320 Speaker 3: We don't have that with Russia. That's one of the 1451 01:12:02,320 --> 01:12:04,080 Speaker 3: reasons they're able to persist in spite of all the 1452 01:12:04,120 --> 01:12:07,240 Speaker 3: sanctions on them, because they rely on a pretty primitive 1453 01:12:07,800 --> 01:12:11,000 Speaker 3: oil coal, natural gas kind of you know, extraction economy. 1454 01:12:11,240 --> 01:12:13,559 Speaker 3: I think that if we take Russia seriously as a 1455 01:12:13,640 --> 01:12:16,360 Speaker 3: foreign power and as a people, we invest in them 1456 01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:18,559 Speaker 3: and we care about them in the long run, we 1457 01:12:18,600 --> 01:12:21,280 Speaker 3: could secure a better piece that both sides feel better about, 1458 01:12:21,479 --> 01:12:23,880 Speaker 3: and we could build a world where there is no 1459 01:12:23,960 --> 01:12:27,000 Speaker 3: longer any incentive for the West or for Russia to 1460 01:12:27,240 --> 01:12:28,160 Speaker 3: get angry at each other. 1461 01:12:28,240 --> 01:12:29,400 Speaker 4: And that's my hope naive it. 1462 01:12:29,400 --> 01:12:32,559 Speaker 5: Maybe and probably cheaper if we just reached a piece 1463 01:12:32,600 --> 01:12:35,759 Speaker 5: deal and lifted the sanctions and then kept dollar in gemony. 1464 01:12:36,680 --> 01:12:38,559 Speaker 6: Anyway, well, this is a good place to leave it. 1465 01:12:38,640 --> 01:12:41,639 Speaker 6: And this has been super super interesting. Thank you guys 1466 01:12:41,640 --> 01:12:43,920 Speaker 6: both for being game to talk some of this out. 1467 01:12:43,920 --> 01:12:47,280 Speaker 6: We really appreciate it. Boush and Dave Smith, thanks so 1468 01:12:47,320 --> 01:12:48,680 Speaker 6: much for joining us on counterpoints. 1469 01:12:48,840 --> 01:12:50,160 Speaker 4: I have a good week you guys. Thank you Dave, 1470 01:12:50,520 --> 01:12:51,880 Speaker 4: Thanks guys. Thanks Bash