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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Millman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Packed Packed Show today continuing our division previews. I think

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Speaker 1: we're previewing what I believe to be the best division

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Speaker 1: in all of football. I am joined as I am

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Speaker 1: for every episode by my bff, my companion Michael Padre

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Speaker 1: from Maui with live reports on the devastation professional better

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Speaker 1: Simon hunter HEADO. So I man, please tell us your

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Speaker 1: status and that you're safe.

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Speaker 2: Hello Chad, Yeah, I am safe. I'm in Keihe, which

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Speaker 2: is another part of Maui. That's it. Did We did

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Speaker 2: have a little bit of fire scary here, but it's

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Speaker 2: it's the opposite side of the island compared to Lahina,

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Speaker 2: which it's devastating. I don't even know. I can't even

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Speaker 2: talk about it, but it's basically uh an old whaling village.

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Speaker 2: Lahina is completely gone. So where I'm at, it's more modern,

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Speaker 2: it's a little more built up. And yeah, thank you

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Speaker 2: to the Mali firefighters. They they put out all the

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Speaker 2: fires by me, and it's just yeah, it's been scary.

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Speaker 2: Forty eight hours, had the bags packed by the front

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Speaker 2: door and ready to go at any moment, but feeling

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Speaker 2: very lucky. Chad, have internet, have water, have light like electricity.

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Speaker 2: You know most of the island right now don't have

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Speaker 2: those luxuries. So yeah, definitely, really really scary seventy two

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Speaker 2: hours here on the island, and uh yeah, makes you

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Speaker 2: makes you feel love chat when so many people reach

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Speaker 2: out to you. You're not dead, but do you realize

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Speaker 2: how many people do care about you? So a lot

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Speaker 2: of people reached out. One thing everyone that did donate

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Speaker 2: to Maui Food, which is something I did promote on

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Speaker 2: my Twitter page, which is just you know, they're feeding

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Speaker 2: all these families who've lost their homes and their businesses.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's tough right now in Mali, but

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Speaker 2: definitely definitely makes you feel lucky and appreciative of what

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Speaker 2: you do have in life.

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Speaker 1: You've been giving me and Matt Mitchell updates and slack

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Speaker 1: and we've been following the news. Very scary. Glad you've

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Speaker 1: been keeping a surprise. Glad you're okay. You're a fucking

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Speaker 1: pro for jumping on the podcast today.

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Speaker 2: Considering good distraction, my friend.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, considering you've been you know, planning to escape and

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Speaker 1: on the verge of being told to evacuate for what

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Speaker 1: feels like seventy two hours and have probably slept a

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Speaker 1: total of seventy two minutes in that window. So thanks

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Speaker 1: for coming on.

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Speaker 2: No, it's it's been really rough. It's just all about perspective.

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Speaker 2: It's just I have a way better than a lot

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Speaker 2: of people are right now. So I do feel very lucky.

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Speaker 1: And yes, if you can, this is a plea on

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Speaker 1: behalf of Simon. Everybody always needs something. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of bad stuff going on in the world. It is

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Speaker 1: especially heightened in Maui right now. If you're able follow

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Speaker 1: up on what Simon posted on Twitter, give if you

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Speaker 1: can in other news, Simon, you're a professional better. I

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Speaker 1: have been in the betting media coverage space for going

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Speaker 1: on twenty five years. The most interesting, respected, revered, beloved

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Speaker 1: in terms of what he's been able to do in

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Speaker 1: betting from a professional perspective, man is Billy. There has

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Speaker 1: been an aura of mystery around the guy for going

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Speaker 1: on forty something years now, widely believed to be the best, better,

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Speaker 1: best sports better in history. Part of the computer group

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Speaker 1: going back to the eighties. That was one of the

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Speaker 1: first teams of people that were using computers to build

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Speaker 1: models that allowed them to act faster and find edges

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Speaker 1: and bet more. Volume has since gone on and become

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Speaker 1: one of the guys who was doing it at massive,

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Speaker 1: massive scale, and really respected by folks like Simon who

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Speaker 1: have been professional betters forever. Other folks that I know

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Speaker 1: in Vegas talk about him in hush tones. A lot

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Speaker 1: of people still refer to him as mister Walters, even

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Speaker 1: if they are his contemporary or have never even met

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Speaker 1: the guy. Of course, famously was profiled in Sixty Minutes

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Speaker 1: with his private jets and how he's moving markets. And

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Speaker 1: more often than not, if a line moves, it has

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Speaker 1: been impacted by Billy Walters, no matter what the sport.

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Speaker 1: So Billy obviously if you don't not obviously, but if

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Speaker 1: you don't know. Several years ago was caught up in

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Speaker 1: an insider trading scandal and he ultimately went to jail.

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Speaker 1: He is out of jail. One of the people who

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Speaker 1: he was famously connected to was Phil Nicholson, and Billy

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Speaker 1: now has a book coming out in a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks exerted by Alan Schipknuck and the Firepit Collective. A

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Speaker 1: newser on actionnetwork dot Com this morning by Dani Ravel

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Speaker 1: focuses very specifically on Billy and his ledger, in which

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Speaker 1: he claims in his ledger that Phil bett more than

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Speaker 1: a billion dollars over thirty years through Billy's system, and

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Speaker 1: that part of the process was because Phil is an

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Speaker 1: amateur better who is famous, his limits were crazy high.

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Speaker 1: He could get four hundred thousand dollars down on a game.

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Speaker 1: Billy because he's Billy could get two thousand, four thousand.

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Speaker 1: So for access to Billy's system, he would Phil would

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Speaker 1: let would make Billy's bets and so Billy has a

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Speaker 1: ledger of everything Phil was betting. Claims he bet more

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Speaker 1: than a billion dollars over thirty years, lost one hundred

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Speaker 1: million dollars. Also claims that Phil tried to bet on

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Speaker 1: the Ryder Cup when Phil was playing for the Ryder

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Speaker 1: Cup the twenty fourteen explosive allegations. Simon, forgetting about that

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Speaker 1: for a second. Give me your thoughts on Billy Walters

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Speaker 1: and sort of his status from your point of view.

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Speaker 2: The best wagon describe, especially for these old heads, is

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Speaker 2: they used to been old saying that that guy shook

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Speaker 2: Sinatra's hand. That's how it feels with Billy. If you're

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Speaker 2: a better it's like I've shaken Billy's hand before, and

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Speaker 2: you know, I only talked to him for maybe five minutes,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, it's just there's an or around him, and

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Speaker 2: it's just you know, there's very few living legends in life,

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Speaker 2: and he's definitely one of them. And when I met him,

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Speaker 2: it was probably six months into me being a runner,

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Speaker 2: so this was before I believe even went to jail.

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Speaker 2: And this was kind of the height of Billy in

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Speaker 2: Vegas at the time. I mean, he was the guy,

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Speaker 2: and you know, you had to be in the world

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Speaker 2: to know who he was. But once you're in the world,

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Speaker 2: you realized he is the guy, like he's he is

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Speaker 2: at the top of the mountaintop you're looking up at

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Speaker 2: and you know, Billy was always known to go about

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Speaker 2: and did his things his own way and aultate at

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Speaker 2: the end of it. He paid the price for that.

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Speaker 2: But you know, a lot of shady stuff goes on

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Speaker 2: in Vegas and not everyone gets caught, and you know,

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Speaker 2: Billy eventually crossed the line and he got caught. So

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Speaker 2: cannot wait to read this book. I mean, the secrets

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Speaker 2: he's going to give out, it's going to be amazing.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be really cool to read. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: I thought, you know, not that I thought that he

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Speaker 2: would be telling all this about Phil because him and

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Speaker 2: Phil obviously had a friendship there and not other were

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Speaker 2: they just business partners. The obviously had a friendship there.

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Speaker 2: So it's gonna be interesting to read about what went

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Speaker 2: awry for them to not be as close as ust

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Speaker 2: to be because he's putting all his business out there, Chad,

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Speaker 2: And you know, if I was close to anyone in life,

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Speaker 2: even if weren't friends anymore, I don't know if I'd

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Speaker 2: ever do that. So it is interesting that Billy is

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Speaker 2: going that route.

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Speaker 1: Well, look in the story that Darren has and that's

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Speaker 1: posted from the book. The excerpt from the book, it

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Speaker 1: seems like Billy is incredibly angry that when he was

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Speaker 1: being prosecuted for insider trading, Phil had the opportunity to

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Speaker 1: absolve him of some of the charges in relation to

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Speaker 1: did he give Phil any insider tips? And Phil pled

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Speaker 1: the fifth on the stand, which didn't help Billy, and

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Speaker 1: he feels certainly that that is a reason why he

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Speaker 1: ended up in prison, and you know what they say,

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Speaker 1: He's got the receipts.

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Speaker 2: And now it's starting to make more sense.

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Speaker 1: The dude unloaded in the book, Unloaded in the excerpt

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Speaker 1: that Alan Shipnak posted, and that in the news that

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Speaker 1: we have at actionnetwork dot com. Check out the story

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Speaker 1: from Darren Ravel. It's fascinating, it's explosive, and you're right,

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Speaker 1: Billy's been a guy who for years people have been

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Speaker 1: wanting to get to his story. I remember years ago

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Speaker 1: when I was running ESPN, the magazine at ESPN dot com.

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Speaker 1: Mike Fish, who's a great investigative reporter and was at

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Speaker 1: ESPN or had been at ESPN for years at that point,

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Speaker 1: had been tracking down Billy, tracking down Billy, tracking down Billy.

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Speaker 1: Finally got a really great story about Billy, and it

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Speaker 1: was one of the first times that someone was able

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Speaker 1: to get inside of Billy's world in a way that

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Speaker 1: wasn't shaded by people who had agendas who wanted to

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Speaker 1: be close to Billy, or by Billy trying to push

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Speaker 1: an agenda himself. And the guy is fascinating. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the mega industry he has built, all judgment aside is

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Speaker 1: profound and I'm excited to read the full book too.

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Speaker 1: I can't wait.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't wait.

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Speaker 1: Simon. I've been doing a lot of research for our

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Speaker 1: division previews, and I can tell you right now two

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Speaker 1: things I can tell you. AFC North best division in football.

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Speaker 1: I got a lot of reasons to think that. Two

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Speaker 1: of the best coaches, two of the best quarterbacks, some

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Speaker 1: of the best storytelling, narrative scenarios. I just think this

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Speaker 1: division is awesome. We're going to get to all of it,

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Speaker 1: but first, I want to remind everybody The Favorite podcast

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Speaker 1: is proudly presented by Bet three six five, the world

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa. Gambling problem

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Speaker 1: caller text one eight hundred gambler. Look, I feel like

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Speaker 1: we're going to surprise some people with where we land

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Speaker 1: on some of these bets today. You and I have

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Speaker 1: not discussed the AFC North at all. In my research,

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Speaker 1: it became more and more clear We're probably going to

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Speaker 1: be aligned on a couple of points of conversation that

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Speaker 1: I think is going to tickle some people.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about how do you think I

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Speaker 2: think this is the best this is the best division?

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Speaker 1: Where do you think? Look, dude, I'm looking at the numbers.

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Speaker 1: I see delta from from Cincinnati at plus one forty

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Speaker 1: to win the division and Pittsburgh at plus five point fifty.

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Speaker 1: Their season win totals eleven and a half for the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: eight and a half for the Steelers. That is the

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Speaker 1: highest sort of aggregate win total for any division. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: only division where every team is above eight wins. And

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Speaker 1: I look at all the other stats, like there's no

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Speaker 1: defensive line in this division that is ranked lower than eleven. Right,

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Speaker 1: they just have talent at every level. So why are

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Speaker 1: you surprised I'm saying that? What did you think I

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Speaker 1: would say it is?

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Speaker 2: I thought you'd probably go AFC East, But it may

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Speaker 2: well just because you have well maybe no, and maybe

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Speaker 2: you did not. You didn't have Rogers your top ten.

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Speaker 2: But I was gonna say just because you had Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen Rogers and two in your top ten quarterbacks. But

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Speaker 2: that makes sense if you had Rogers outside your top ten.

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Speaker 2: But no, this is we talk all the time. This

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Speaker 2: is literally the golden age of quarterbacks. Like this division

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Speaker 2: that you know, AFC West, you got Russ Herbert and

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Speaker 2: Mahomes and then you got this division here where I

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Speaker 2: mean you just talked to it. You got Watson, you

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Speaker 2: got Lamar, you got Joey the man, the myth, the legend,

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Speaker 2: and you know, we don't know how we feel about

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Speaker 2: him up in South Jersey's own Kenny Pickett, you're right,

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Speaker 2: chat now I'm thinking about it. It is pretty incredible

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Speaker 2: how good these three different conferences are, let alone just

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Speaker 2: this one division. I mean, this is pretty incredible. We're

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Speaker 2: in this right now. Football, But dude, not just that.

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Speaker 1: Think about the coaches that you most like to bet on.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about this so many times, right, Two of

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Speaker 1: the coaches that we most like to bet on, say,

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Speaker 1: two of the five coaches we most like to bet on, yeah,

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Speaker 1: are in this division, John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin.

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Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, baby, let's dance.

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Speaker 1: Yeah again. I'll say the other coaches that we love.

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Speaker 1: We love to bet on Belichick, we love to bet

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Speaker 1: on Mike Vrabel. We love to bet on Andy Reid,

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Speaker 1: but we really love to bet on Mike Tomlin and

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Speaker 1: John Harbaugh.

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Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we

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Speaker 2: can make one of you guys quit today.

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Speaker 1: Tomlin has never finished below five hundred in his career.

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Speaker 1: And we're talking about quarterbacks like Duck Hodges that he's

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Speaker 1: been coaching, right, Harbaugh, Like, think about what Harbad did

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Speaker 1: last year. That team with a second and third string

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Speaker 1: combination of quarterbacks should have beaten the Bengals in the

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Speaker 1: wild card game if not for that fumble. Harpball is

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Speaker 1: a genius coach. So this division is stacked. It's stacked.

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Speaker 2: It's tough.

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Speaker 1: What are we gonna do with this?

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Speaker 2: Let me go down the gain know exactly what we're

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Speaker 2: gonna do.

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Speaker 1: I do too, I know exactly what we're gonna do too.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious to know if we're gonna land in the

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Speaker 1: same place. So let me go down the odds right now.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus one forty, Baltimore plus two twenty, Cleveland plus

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Speaker 1: three fifty, Pittsburgh plus five fifty. Here's my deduction right now.

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Speaker 1: Are you ready?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: And let me say this. I fucking love Kenny Pickett.

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Speaker 1: I think Kenny Pickett is a fucking baller. I think

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Speaker 1: he's gonna be great for that team. I think his

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Speaker 1: teammates love him. There was a play last year where

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Speaker 1: he felt like he got hit late. Do you remember

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Speaker 1: the play that I'm talking about? And he got up

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Speaker 1: and he was ready to throw down and it was fantastic,

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Speaker 1: and I think it rallied the team. I think we

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Speaker 1: saw his ability to be a playmaker. You know, they've

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Speaker 1: got a really strong defensive line.

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Speaker 2: Excuse me, get chat, I'm talking about it, Kenny, pick

263
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Speaker 2: it any pick me up.

264
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Speaker 1: But I feel like we got to go with Cleveland

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Speaker 1: plus three fifty to win the division.

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Speaker 2: So bad, right lined? Yeah, dude, Oh my god.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god. We did not discuss this once. And

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Speaker 1: I was doing the research and I looked at everything.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, holy fuck, this roster is unbelievable. Plus three fifty.

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Speaker 1: Their total is eight and a half minus one seventy

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Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five to the over, plus one

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Speaker 1: forty for the under. Fuck. This is a good team.

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Speaker 2: I honestly, when I look at them on paper, I

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Speaker 2: don't get how they can afford this team. If you

275
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Speaker 2: look at their D line it doesn't make sense how

276
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Speaker 2: they can give to Shaan Watson, what was it, two

277
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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty million all guaranteed money and still they

278
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Speaker 2: have Nick Chubb, they have an incredible offensive line, they

279
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Speaker 2: have a Mark Cooper, and then go look at their

280
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Speaker 2: d line. People, if you haven't seen who they have

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Speaker 2: added to this defense, you know they're just I can't.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you, Chad, Like they have arguably the best

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Speaker 2: defensive player now in football and Miles Garrett. But we're

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Speaker 2: betting on Watson to turn back into what he used

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Speaker 2: to be, right, I think that's the biggest fear here. Like,

286
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Speaker 2: and again we're getting the number four. It if Watson

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Speaker 2: had came back last year and had thrown say, twenty

288
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Speaker 2: touchdowns of four interceptions in that final run he had

289
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Speaker 2: with that team, Mean and Chat would not be getting

290
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Speaker 2: this number. This would be a totally different number. But

291
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Speaker 2: the public is just out on Watson. Like, the only

292
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Speaker 2: people taking Watson right now they're pros and Cleveland Brown fans.

293
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Speaker 2: Like the public, it's totally off of them. I would

294
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Speaker 2: say the most public bet team right now this division,

295
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Speaker 2: it's gonna be the Bengals, right They're the team that's

296
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Speaker 2: won this division tiers in a row. Joe Burrow's cool

297
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Speaker 2: as shit man like Joe Burrow can do no wrong.

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Speaker 2: He's just a really likable, good dude. You don't got

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Speaker 2: that on Watson. No one's saying that about Watson. I

300
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Speaker 2: think even still, you're gonna have to talk ahead to

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Speaker 2: be like preference, talk about what he did. Right. We

302
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Speaker 2: all agree, huge scumback. We both I think got him

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Speaker 2: top five just three years ago in our QBU rankings.

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Speaker 1: Really certain. I still had them top ten this year.

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Speaker 1: I have them top ten.

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Speaker 2: I know all the talents there. It's it's all about

307
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Speaker 2: if you can get that mental confidence back, which you

308
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,120
Speaker 2: can see he had lost. Right, he took a year

309
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Speaker 2: and a half off of football. I mean that's that's

310
00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 2: a big deal. Yeah, we're playing fire here, but over

311
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Speaker 2: eight and a half we're gonna be on it. It sucks.

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Speaker 2: It's all up to minus one seventy. If you can

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Speaker 2: get the juice down and take over nine, I would

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Speaker 2: take that number. I got them at ten point two wins,

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Speaker 2: so I got them a full game and a half

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Speaker 2: over this eight and a half wins, So I like

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Speaker 2: the value there. But this divisionally, this was just plus

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Speaker 2: four hundred not even three weeks ago, and then Joe

319
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Speaker 2: Burrow pulled up with the calf string and this number dropped,

320
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Speaker 2: so dropped down to three twenty. Now with the news

321
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Speaker 2: that Joe's probably gonna be back for week one, it's

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Speaker 2: gone up a little bit back to three point fifty.

323
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Speaker 2: Still like the value, I mean, it's still great value

324
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Speaker 2: in this Browns team that if they do upset the

325
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Speaker 2: Bengals week one. I mean, this is easy. He's going

326
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Speaker 2: to drop to two seventy five two fifty for this division.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I love that you're on this team. Chat.

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Speaker 2: It's just it's the pro play you have to if

329
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Speaker 2: you're just betting off pure value base them the Ravens

330
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Speaker 2: and the Bengals. The difference is so small. It really

331
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Speaker 2: is that small, people like, it's not as big as

332
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Speaker 2: the books are making out to be. So yeah, I'm

333
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 2: happy to here chet you like the Browns because I

334
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Speaker 2: hate doing it. I feel like a gross human doing it.

335
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Speaker 2: But this is our job. It's a business, and we're

336
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Speaker 2: just playing the number here. We're trying not to look

337
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Speaker 2: at the individuals and how horrible people they are, Like,

338
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Speaker 2: we're just playing the numbers here.

339
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Speaker 1: We don't get to choose the opportunity. Yeah, all we

340
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,200
Speaker 1: can do is play the opportunity. Let me give you

341
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Speaker 1: some stats, Okay, to back up what we're talking about.

342
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Speaker 1: And this is again you and I had not discussed this,

343
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Speaker 1: as the beauty of doing it live is. We did

344
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Speaker 1: not share notes on this particular bet, but I was

345
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Speaker 1: doing my research last night, so so I will say

346
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Speaker 1: that a Cordner Sean Kerner, the AFC North has the

347
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 1: hardest schedule in the NFL, and that makes sense because

348
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Speaker 1: we think it's the best division in the NFL. So

349
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Speaker 1: according to Kerner, the Browns have the what looks like

350
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Speaker 1: sixth or seventh hardest schedule. I'm doing it backwards because

351
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Speaker 1: we rank it one to thirty two. The Bengals have

352
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Speaker 1: the second hardest schedule, the Ravens have the fourth, the

353
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Speaker 1: Steelers have the fifth. Right, so number one, number two.

354
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 1: Simon talked about their defensive line. Miles Garrett probably the

355
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: most dominant edge rusher in football, if not along with

356
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald, the most dominant defensive lineman. They added Zadarius Smith.

357
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Speaker 1: It's the first time in Miles Garrett's career is there

358
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 1: Darius Smith, who had ten sacks for the Viking last year,

359
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 1: the first time Miles Garrett's career that he's had any

360
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 1: kind of support. Jadavon Clowney was not support. Jadagon Clowney

361
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 1: was kind of a clown on the other side of

362
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Speaker 1: the line. So the fact that Miles Garrett might not

363
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 1: be blocked double team done every single play. Right now,

364
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 1: they are sixth sixth best defensive line according to PFF.

365
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 1: You gotta love this defensive line, Simon, mm hmm. This

366
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Speaker 1: offensive line?

367
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Speaker 2: Who was raking ahead of them? I thes are up, uh.

368
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Speaker 1: The Eagles, the Niners, Uh, the Steelers are fifth, and

369
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Speaker 1: I think that's really because of t J. Watt and

370
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Speaker 1: Alex Highsmith who had such a great year last year.

371
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 1: But we'll get to that. This Brown's offensive line, according

372
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 1: to PFF, ranked second. You got center Ethan Posick who

373
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Speaker 1: had a great, great year.

374
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Speaker 2: Right.

375
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 1: Joel pittonio All Pro left guard one sack all season

376
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Speaker 1: last year. So where do you have it? Where do

377
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 1: you have the Browns offensive line ranked.

378
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 2: Top three in their d lines? Top three? That's why

379
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 2: I was interesting that made number six. But again it's

380
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 2: all preseason. Everyone can do their own list. But Chad's

381
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 2: no stranger to this is the exact same reason I

382
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: was all in on the Eagles last year. I had

383
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 2: the Eagles ranked as a top three offensive line and

384
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 2: a top three defensive line and took a lot of

385
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 2: shit for it. People are like, this Eagles team barely cracked.

386
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 2: I think it was forty sacks the year before, and

387
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 2: I kept saying that was irrelevant to this upcoming season.

388
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 2: They'd obviously added pieces to that defensive line that made

389
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 2: a big difference. Did I know they're gonna get seventy sacks? No,

390
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 2: No one can build a model that can predict the

391
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: D line and get seventy sacks last year. But just

392
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,959
Speaker 2: projecting out this Browns D line, I got them breaking

393
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 2: fifty five sixty sacks. That's a big deal on a

394
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 2: defense like this. So yeah, I'm very very high on

395
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 2: this O line and very very high on this D line.

396
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 2: And to me, no stranger to that, Chad. Everyone knows

397
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,439
Speaker 2: that that's my secret sauce. Like, that's two things I

398
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 2: really look into that a lot of people don't pay

399
00:22:58,160 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: attention to it, and it's a big deal to me. So

400
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 2: you nailed it. It's it's it's why I've upgraded them

401
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: so much, and I still think they're undervalued in the

402
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 2: public the public side, they just they don't they don't

403
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 2: really care about O line and D line talk Chad,

404
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 2: but they really should.

405
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm remiss for not telling people to

406
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,199
Speaker 1: like this video on YouTube. Like it, like it, like it,

407
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 1: subscribe to Action Networks YouTube channel. Two things Simon one,

408
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 1: it's not so secret. We're talking about how much you

409
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 1: love the offensive line and defensive line all the time.

410
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 1: And I think the trenches are why NFL betters, professional

411
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 1: betters watch preseason games. The number of times I've sat

412
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Speaker 1: with professional betters and they are talking about betting preseason

413
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 1: and then talking about watching preseason. They're not doing it

414
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,959
Speaker 1: because there are degenerate reasons to doing it to do it.

415
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: They're doing it because at some point in week five

416
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 1: and some point in week twelve, a left guard a

417
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 1: right tackle for some team is going to go down,

418
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: and professional betters to know, Okay, is the second string

419
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: tackle good enough to fill that role without too much

420
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 1: of a diminished impact, Like is that going to work out?

421
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: So that's why guys are watching the preseason games, because

422
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 1: they're judging the offensive and defensive lines. It's everything, which

423
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 1: is why Simon, I think you and I both landed

424
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 1: on the Browns, even though we still have a lot

425
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 1: of questions about Deshaun Watson and can he come back. Yeah,

426
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 1: that's the biggest question. But foundationally, these the Browns are

427
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 1: just so strong, great, this is.

428
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 2: In my lifetime. This is the best the Browns I

429
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 2: have ever been like. They have it. It's all there

430
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 2: on paper, everything they've been building to this whole tanking, analytics,

431
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 2: everything I've done all these years getting rid of Baker right,

432
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 2: Baker took them to the playoffs. They want a playoff

433
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 2: game with Baker and they cut ties on the following

434
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 2: year just because the ownership, the GM, all of them

435
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: looked at this team on paper and said, what's the

436
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 2: one thing we're missing, And to them it was a

437
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 2: quarterback position. They wanted to improve it. Say what you

438
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: want about the Deshaun Watson move they made, Clearly it's right.

439
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield now is on his third team in two years.

440
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 2: Clearly the move is justifying the sense that they didn't

441
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 2: think he was the guy, and the rest of the

442
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 2: NFL is agreeing with him. The question now is what

443
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 2: Chad just mentioned, can Deshaun Watson find what he has

444
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 2: lost these last couple of seasons. We just we don't know,

445
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 2: but we're betting on that he does, just because of

446
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 2: the value that is there in this number.

447
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 1: I want to go to the next team on this list,

448
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,919
Speaker 1: which we think is the most interesting, which is the

449
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: Steelers a plus five point fifty. There's a great TikTok

450
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 1: trend going around right now, Mike Tomlin doing Mike Tomlin

451
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 1: sayings and it's fantastic. What what you know? We know

452
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: how much Matt Metroll loves to drop Mike tomlinisms into

453
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 1: the podcast.

454
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: So that's why the people kill me for catchphrases. But

455
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 2: I'm trying to capture a thought succainctly without damn talking

456
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 2: too much, because I just hate talking. I'd rather do.

457
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 1: We love Mike Tomlin. We love Mike Tomlin as an underdog.

458
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: We love Mike Tomlin on the road as an underdog.

459
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: Eight and a half wins minus one fifty to the over,

460
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 1: plus one twenty to the under. There's no reason to

461
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: bet the under here. The Steelers have the fifth best

462
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 1: D line according to Pro Football Focus. They have a

463
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 1: middle of the pack O line, really good passing O line,

464
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: really bad running O line. I don't think we're taking

465
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: them to win the division. I don't know if I

466
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: like the juice on the eight and a half either.

467
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 2: I used all theirs luck up last year. I mean

468
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 2: we both took their over luck and yeah we did.

469
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: I got them slanated towards the under, but it's by

470
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 2: not even ero point three. Like I got them at

471
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 2: eight point two wins and the over is eight and

472
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 2: a half, So no value there to me. I'm not

473
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 2: here to force total you know, win total bets. But yeah,

474
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 2: they're this is one of the teams I'm excited about

475
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 2: because if he does make that next step, they're gonna

476
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,439
Speaker 2: be really good. Like I have really good receivers. I

477
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,919
Speaker 2: know they Broughden Robinson as well, Like they have a

478
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 2: really good core there for him, and obviously Algie Harris

479
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 2: in the backfield one of the better running backs in

480
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: all football. So yeah, it's all there for Pittsburgh. But

481
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,479
Speaker 2: in this division, man, with these quarterbacks, like I just

482
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 2: it's hard to get behind Kenny. I mean, it is

483
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: all there for them, But I think last year it

484
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: was a little bit of a year early, right, So

485
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 2: this year, to me, them getting to eight and nine,

486
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 2: seven and ten, that just feels right like they're gonna

487
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 2: steal some games in this division. You know, they're playing

488
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 2: the NFC West. It's it's gonna be hard to see

489
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 2: them stealing games from the forty nine ers, the Rams

490
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 2: and Seattle there. But you know, it's just just a

491
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 2: really tough schedule for this this Steelers team. So Week one, mean,

492
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 2: Chad loved them plus three at home against the forty

493
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: nine ers, But yep, for the season win total, division,

494
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 2: super Bowl odds, I got, I got nothing invested in

495
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh at this point, Chad, So definitely a team I've

496
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 2: just stayed away from it this point.

497
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: Reminder, you can follow me and Simon in the award

498
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 1: winning Action Network app. You can see all of our

499
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: bets right now. You can see that we loved Cleveland

500
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: plus two and a half against Cincinnati in Week one.

501
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow's not playing. We liked that even more.

502
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 2: It's down to a pick and plus one out in

503
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: most books.

504
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 1: There you go, that's in Cleveland. And we liked San Francisco.

505
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 1: We liked pitt plus three at home against San Francisco

506
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: in Week one. Two. That's a little bit of a

507
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan inflation, and you kidding me? We're gonna bet

508
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: against Mike Tomlin as a home dog in Week one

509
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty three NFL season. Not a chance.

510
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: Guess what. Guess what, Simon, I don't know about you.

511
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: I got my delivery from Factor this week. All the

512
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: meals that we're getting. The prep meals fall is around

513
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: the corner. We get pretty busy around here. That's why

514
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 1: we are so excited about our new sponsor, Factor, America's

515
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: number one ready to eat meal kit, who sent us

516
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 1: ready to eat meals straight to our door. Matt, we

517
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: talked about this. You've been a Factor guy for months now.

518
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 1: I'm a Factor guy. I'm a Factor guy so much,

519
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: Matt that I think they sent me eight meals forty

520
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: eight hours ago. Five of them are gone, and my

521
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 1: sixteen year old is texting me. He knows I like

522
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 1: him so much, asking me if he can eat them.

523
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 1: He never asked me if he can do anything, yet

524
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 1: he knows I like Factor so much. He's asking me

525
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 1: if he can eat my meals. Matt, you've been on

526
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: this bandwagon.

527
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 3: I would be deep cold in the ground before I

528
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 3: let any child of mine eat one of these meals.

529
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 3: They can eat out of a goddamn fashman before they

530
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 3: eat one of these Factor meals. Hi head to me yesterday,

531
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 3: I've already had my traditional ten am Central Time lunch

532
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 3: a Factor.

533
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: I love it.

534
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 3: And one thing I failed to note last time is

535
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 3: I've done all the meal delivery systems, all the different kits,

536
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 3: all of them. I had issues with them being late,

537
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 3: which the sticks are pretty high when it comes to

538
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 3: feeding me, and Factor is the only one that has always,

539
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: always always delivered exactly on time, which is crucial to

540
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 3: keep the chains running around here. So yeah, they're delicious,

541
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 3: they're not frozen. They just take a couple of minutes

542
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 3: to prepare. Literally it's two minutes. And it's something that

543
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 3: Chad and I now have in common, as we are

544
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 3: essentially in equal shape and we'll live to an equal age.

545
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 3: Ask anyone that knows us.

546
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: You couldn't think of two people who eat from the

547
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: more opposite ends of the spectrum than me and Matt Mitchell.

548
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: And yet with Factor, we are skipping the trips to

549
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 1: the grocery store. We're skipping the chopping, the prepping, the

550
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: cleaning up to Factors Fresh never frozen meals are ready

551
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: in just two minutes, so all you have to do

552
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 1: is heat and enjoy. Then get back to picking NFL winners.

553
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: Head to Factor meals dot com slash favorites fifty and

554
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 1: use code favorites fifty to get fifty percent off. That's

555
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: code favorites fifty at factor meals dot com slash favorites

556
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: fifty to get fifty percent off. No joke, people, I

557
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: freaking love it. It's made my life so much better

558
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 1: this week. All right, Simon, we went deep on the Browns.

559
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: We've said pretty much all there is to say about

560
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I want to leave Joe Burrow in the

561
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 1: Bengals for last. Baltimore is at plus two twenty. Their

562
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: season win total is nine and a half. It's minus

563
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: one seventy to the over plus one forty to the under.

564
00:31:55,760 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 1: Another fascinating roster, right, Like this offensive line top five

565
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 1: according to PFF. Defensive line not very good at all,

566
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: which is anomaly for the Ravens. How are you judging

567
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: this team? Yeah?

568
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 2: Really excited about their offense, right. I think this is

569
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 2: the first time in Lamar's career he's had legit wide receivers.

570
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: He's got Odell out there. It's remained to be seen

571
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 2: by things. A Flowers is gonna be a legit good player,

572
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 2: like that's could they drafted this year? Yeah, you know,

573
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: that's the big question is what is this new offense

574
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 2: gonna look like with Lamar? And that's the only reason people,

575
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 2: I'm not so heavily involved on them where I like

576
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 2: that this is year two for Watson in his system,

577
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 2: where this is Lamar's for sure in this new system.

578
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,959
Speaker 2: So I think there's a lot of growing pains. You know,

579
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: there are certain people where yes, I do care if

580
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 2: they're throwing a lot of interceptions in preseason, but ninety

581
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 2: nine percent of the time I really don't care. And

582
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: Lamar's on those guys, I do not care. Lamar could

583
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 2: throw ten picks a day, I don't care. They're just

584
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: working stuff out right now. So to me, when people

585
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 2: are like, are you worried about what you're seeing out

586
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 2: of camp for the Ravens, not at all, Like let

587
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 2: them work that stuff out. But yeah, it's just a

588
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 2: weird number on them. That's why I'm not huge on

589
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 2: them this year. Like I remember last year, we talked

590
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 2: a lot during the off season. We liked them at

591
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 2: twenty to one, twenty one to one to win the

592
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. It's weird they're eighteen to one. I don't

593
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 2: know if they got that much better. They should have been

594
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 2: bumped up to eighteen to one. They're still like we

595
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 2: already talk about they're sill in the division with Joey

596
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 2: Cool Joe Burrow, and we think the Browns are going

597
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 2: to be better and we think, you know, Pittsburgh is

598
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 2: still gonna be right there. So it is interesting they've

599
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 2: bumped them down a little bit the books, but divisional odds,

600
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: this would be the second team I've taken. I did

601
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 2: put a small bet on them when the Joe Burrow

602
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 2: first happened the injury, I didn't know if it was

603
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 2: an acl MCL like, I didn't know what was happening

604
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 2: to Joe. Now we do know, right it's just a

605
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 2: calf string. He should be back to start the season.

606
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 2: By the time I made the bet on the Ravens,

607
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 2: I didn't know that, So I was basically just hedging

608
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 2: my already bet that I had in Cleveland on this

609
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: Ravens team. And you know, I liked them, but we

610
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 2: can't we can't not talk about Lamar being one and

611
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 2: three in the playoffs like that is that is a

612
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 2: that is a real thing. Lamar in his career is

613
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: one and three and last year. I still don't get

614
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 2: why nothing ever came out of it. But this is

615
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: a man that didn't show up to his team's games

616
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 2: and their playoff game when he was hurt like that.

617
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: To me, I hated it. I hated it so much

618
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 2: just because I'm a competitor and it's just all about

619
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 2: the team. And that was very me, me, me, me of

620
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 2: him to not go to his team's playoff game. And

621
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 2: you know, say what you wanted about Carson Wentz, Carson Wentz,

622
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: whatever's happened in his career. That man was there every

623
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: game on that Super Bowl run, and he was wearing

624
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 2: the head set doing all that shit that you know,

625
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 2: he hated watching another man lead his team to a

626
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 2: super Bowl win, but he was a man and he

627
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,360
Speaker 2: was there for his team, and he didn't. Lamar didn't.

628
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 2: And you know, he's got a little bit of a

629
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 2: pass on that, But I think a lot of teammates

630
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:02,839
Speaker 2: didn't give him a pass on that, and I think

631
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 2: he's had to earn back everything with his team, and

632
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not going to be big on them

633
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: this year, but if this offense really clicks Lamar's getting

634
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: the ball downfield with accuracy, maybe my tune will have

635
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 2: changed midway through the season, because again he does have

636
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 2: incredible weapons, like now that he is Odell who has

637
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 2: apparently looked great in camp, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews. Hopefully JK.

638
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 2: Dobbins gets back the next week or two and really

639
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 2: starts ramping up his, uh, you know, his fitness level

640
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 2: for this team because they need him. That that's a

641
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 2: big deal. I have JK back at that running back position.

642
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: That is a big deal to have him because he

643
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 2: is that good. So yeah, to me, the oriason on

644
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 2: my healthy invest in them is because all these question

645
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 2: marks I have with this team right now, Chat, there's

646
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 2: just too many for me. So I've I've throw a

647
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 2: small bet on their over win total. I believe it's

648
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 2: nine and a half at bet three six five right now,

649
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 2: So giving a little bet on that had them at

650
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 2: ten point ten point six, So you know, I have

651
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 2: them at more wins in the Browns. It's just that's

652
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 2: a fluctuate during the season. But it's mainly just because

653
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,280
Speaker 2: it's all there for this team, Like they have the coaching,

654
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 2: they have the offense, they have the former MVP and

655
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,959
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, Like, they have to start putting it together

656
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 2: at some point, right, this kid can't keep being one

657
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 2: and three in his career in the playoffs. Eventually they

658
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 2: have to start making these moves. So just historically, I

659
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 2: like to back the Ravens after a down year and

660
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 2: last year, people forget they were the one seed until

661
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: Lamar went down. They were having a great season, really

662
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 2: really good, putting it all together. Lamar got injured, they

663
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 2: fought through it somehow made the playoffs as what was

664
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,479
Speaker 2: it a sixth seed? Maybe it was a seventh seed

665
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 2: and Chad said it. They were literally on the goal

666
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 2: line with a backup quarterback ready to take a seven

667
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 2: point lead against the Bengals in the playoffs. Like, this

668
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 2: team has the talent, it's just kNN they put it

669
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 2: all together. So just value base wise, I think divisionally,

670
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 2: the better odds to me are the Browns. But if

671
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 2: you hate the Browns, you're looking for it tem the

672
00:36:57,719 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 2: ben this division, I got no issue taking the race.

673
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 2: They have to me the same exact amount of upside

674
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,439
Speaker 2: as that Browns team does they just it's all there,

675
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 2: It's just all can they put it all together with

676
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 2: this new offensive scheme.

677
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 1: So here's my feeling. And I think you answered your

678
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 1: own question, which is why are the Ravens at eighteen

679
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 1: to one Super Bowl ads when in years past we

680
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: were getting them twenty twenty two and that twenty to

681
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:24,439
Speaker 1: twenty five range. And I think it's for a couple

682
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 1: of reasons. The bookmakers haven't forgot that this was a

683
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: team that was the number one seed. The bookmakers haven't

684
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 1: forgot that it's a team that had the Bengals beat

685
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 1: if not for that fumble with playing with backup players,

686
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 1: And so they haven't forgot that John Harbaugh is one

687
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,319
Speaker 1: of the best coaches in the NFL. They you look

688
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: at it as Lamar Jackson disappeared on his team and

689
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 1: may have been a bit Poudy, may have been sort

690
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,959
Speaker 1: of playing games because he was in a contract year

691
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 1: and maybe was using hard negotiating tactics. Anything on that

692
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 1: spectrum could have been true. But now they're looking at

693
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 1: it as Lamar's in camp, he's healthy, he's happy, he's motivated,

694
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 1: and all of these things might have been true in

695
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 1: his MVP season. They might have been true in the

696
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 1: year after, but there was diminishing motivation and diminishing health.

697
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 1: Certainly as he got closer to that contract year. All

698
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 1: those problems are gone, and I actually don't think players care.

699
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: I think they recognize there's a business. They probably understood

700
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: he was doing some of these tactics because it's a business,

701
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,319
Speaker 1: and he was protecting himself for what was going to

702
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 1: be a massive contract. To me, that's water the bridge.

703
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 1: When you're in camp and you're playing. He's their guy.

704
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 1: They're one hundred percent behind him. I think that's why

705
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 1: the numbers are a little bit depressed. I think it's

706
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 1: why it is lower than we think it should be.

707
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 2: Well, as someone that watches, you know, I don't know

708
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 2: how many times. It's probably I probably watched the Last

709
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 2: Dance one hundred times. At this point, Chad, did people

710
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 2: ever forgive Scottie Pippen for sitting out in that game

711
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 2: because he didn't get the final shot?

712
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:09,720
Speaker 1: That's different.

713
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 2: I'm just saying that.

714
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,720
Speaker 1: No, it's not. No, you can't just say it's different.

715
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 1: It's totally different. And I agree, Listen, they.

716
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 2: Needed him, they needed him in the playoff run and

717
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,760
Speaker 2: he wasn't there for his team, and that again, maybe

718
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 2: they're not saying it to the media, but as a

719
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: man to a man that he left them for dead

720
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 2: because he wanted his one whatever it was.

721
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 1: There is a massive difference, a massive difference between Scottie

722
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 1: Pippen petulant, petulantly saying I'm not going in the game

723
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: as one of the best players in the NBA about.

724
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: He said, I'm not playing in that game.

725
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, as the face of the franchise in

726
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 1: the final seconds, the final seconds because I'm not getting

727
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:56,959
Speaker 1: the ball, and Lamar Jackson, who had been playing hurt

728
00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: all year long, deciding I'm not comfortable playing, I'm going

729
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: to protect myself and then not being on the field

730
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 1: when he wasn't going to be playing anyways because he

731
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 1: was injured. I don't think players are going to hold

732
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 1: that against him one hundred percent. Players should hold it

733
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: against Scotty Pippen.

734
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: They still do.

735
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 1: They absolutely should. I still hold it against Scotty Pippen,

736
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 1: And which is the right thing to do? All right? Listen,

737
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: We've talked about game time so much on this podcast.

738
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: It's the fastest growding ticketing app in the United States.

739
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 1: I love game Time, honestly, I use it all the time.

740
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 1: You guys know I do. I've talked about when I've

741
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 1: used it. If you're looking to get out to a

742
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 1: pro college game this week, or even a concert, game

743
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:48,439
Speaker 1: Time has amazing last minute deals or tickets for all

744
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:52,240
Speaker 1: of these. I'm opening the game Time app right now

745
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 1: on my phone and look at this. I can go

746
00:40:55,640 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 1: see the Amazings in New York not too far my

747
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: house for eight bucks tomorrow night. No matter where you live,

748
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 1: download the game Time app, get out and have some

749
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 1: fun this week. You deserve it. You can redeem code

750
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again.

751
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: Just download the app and enter code favorites for twenty

752
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 1: dollars off. Download game Time today. Last minute tickets lows

753
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 1: price guaranteed. One team left to talk about the Cincinnati

754
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: Joe's plus one forty at bet three sixty five. The

755
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that they

756
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 1: started it, with a die hard commitment.

757
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 2: The Bengals battled tenaciously.

758
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 1: Eleven and a half, and I made a note in

759
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:50,839
Speaker 1: my notes here. I circled it. I wrote interesting, I

760
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 1: circled that. I put three exclamation points. Okay, the over

761
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 1: right now on bet three six five for eleven and

762
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 1: a half wins for the Bengals plus one third under

763
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 1: minus one sixty. Bengals have the second hardest schedule in

764
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: the NFL. According to Sean Cerner. They are on the

765
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 1: road at the Chiefs, on the road at San Francisco,

766
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,919
Speaker 1: on the road at Cleveland with Joe Burrow banged up

767
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: against our favorite team in the division, Cleveland Browns. What

768
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 1: are we thinking here, Simon eleven and a half, let's

769
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 1: start with that. We don't talk about the division. We're

770
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 1: not gonna bet Cincinnati plus one forty, but we're getting

771
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 1: plus one thirty on over eleven and a half.

772
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's just because everyone's gonna bet the under.

773
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 2: If you're smart, you bet the under, just because they've

774
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 2: been so fortunate. So I would say most guys that

775
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 2: model them out, I don't think anyone's gonna have them

776
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 2: at twelve wins, right so right there, just because Jed

777
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 2: already talked about it's such a hard division, and who

778
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 2: they play outside their own division again, it's they won

779
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 2: their division last year. That means they play a first

780
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 2: place schedule like that's that's a big deal. That means

781
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 2: they're guaranteed to play the Bills, They're guaranteed to play

782
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. Those are other teams that want their division.

783
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 2: They're guarantee to play the Jaguars, So you know, die

784
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 2: right there, that's a big deal. So you know, Bengals fans,

785
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 2: don't be upset. Every pro is going to take your

786
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 2: guys under. It's just the way it is. When you

787
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 2: have a team as this, this overachieving year and year out,

788
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 2: people are gonna take their under. So the general public

789
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 2: loves this team. They love Joe Burrow. You know, they

790
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,720
Speaker 2: probably do have the best three wide receivers in all football.

791
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 2: Right Boyd's their third receiver. He's probably number two or

792
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 2: number one on most teams. Crazy talented team. It's all there.

793
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 2: Joe Mixon's back, it's it's all there. We get it, Bengals,

794
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 2: but can't bet it. There's no value. There's no value

795
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 2: on this team divisionally, no value on their win total.

796
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 2: Like I have them at right there. I got them

797
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 2: at eleven wins, So I'll take a small bet on

798
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 2: their under. But you know, as strong positions go, me

799
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 2: and Chat are gonna be fading this team a lot.

800
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 2: It's just they're the darling of most people that they

801
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 2: just if you're a casual viewer, why would you not

802
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 2: like betting on the Bengals. Joe Borrow has been nothing

803
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 2: but good to you. He's been successful if you've been

804
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 2: betting on him these last couple of years. So, yeah,

805
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 2: just like last year, they came up that Super Bowl hangover.

806
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 2: They had some ugly losses to start the year last year. Now,

807
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 2: I think a lot of that goes into Joe. He'd

808
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:19,839
Speaker 2: gotten that surgery, right, what do you get is appendix removed? Yeah?

809
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 2: I think so something like that to start the year.

810
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 2: So he didn't have camp his rookie year. He didn't

811
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 2: have camp because I think because of COVID. There's just

812
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 2: Joe hasn't had a camp his entire career. Like now

813
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: he's missing camp again this year with a calf stream.

814
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:35,479
Speaker 2: I expect him to come out slow. I mean shit,

815
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 2: people forget they lost to Cooper Rush in that Dallas

816
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:42,320
Speaker 2: Cowboy team. Like they just had weird, weird starts of

817
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 2: the season last year. I think they'll have it again

818
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 2: this year. But this division is so good. I don't

819
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 2: think they're gonna have the luck of Lamar getting hurt

820
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: and falling off, so they're able to come and rally

821
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 2: and win this division like they got very lucky last year.

822
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 2: And we already talked about if you would have came

823
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 2: to anyone two years ago and said, what odds would

824
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 2: you give the Bengals to win this division three straight years?

825
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 2: You've been already be giving me ten thousand and one odds. Right,

826
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,359
Speaker 2: this is before we know how great Joe was. They're

827
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 2: here now, they've won two straight years. They're now, Chad,

828
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 2: you said a plus one forty to win this division.

829
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 2: Those are very short odds for what we talked about.

830
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 2: It is, I'm gonna be the best division in this

831
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 2: entire league. So yeah, just no value. You can't you

832
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 2: can't want to bet how the pros bet and take

833
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,800
Speaker 2: any type of positive bet on this Bengals team, unless

834
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 2: you want to do Joe Burrow to lead the league

835
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 2: in passing yards or you know, any individual awards. It's

836
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 2: just team wise, there's just no value there. This team

837
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:44,959
Speaker 2: has nothing good to bet on. Mid season. That could change,

838
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 2: right me and Chad. If this team starts two to four,

839
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:50,879
Speaker 2: I am more than happy to come back in on

840
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 2: this team to make the playoffs and then the Super

841
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 2: Bowl odds, but as we sit here in August, terrible,

842
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 2: terrible odds to bet on this team. So I hope

843
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 2: people heed my advice. Take your fantom away. Just don't

844
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: bet on this team right now. There's just no value

845
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 2: in it. There will be later in the season right now.

846
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 2: I just I cannot invest positively in this team right now,

847
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:14,359
Speaker 2: just because I hate to be a downer, but it's

848
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 2: just overinflated, Like this is all over inflated just because

849
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 2: of what they've done these past two seasons. So yeah,

850
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 2: happy to take their under in the win total, but

851
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 2: that's where it stops for me. I just I'm not

852
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 2: going to be betting heavily against this team on win

853
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:29,359
Speaker 2: toll just because there's not that much value there.

854
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 1: They added Orlando Brown Junior to the offensive line, so

855
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: their offensive line, which has been an issue for years,

856
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 1: slightly slightly better. It's interesting, it's interesting you say that

857
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 1: about Joe Burrow and betting individual awards. Sean Kerner, in

858
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 1: his QB Tiers piece for Action Network Download the Action

859
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 1: Network Up, Get it on an actionnetwork dot Com says

860
00:46:56,880 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: that he has Joe Burrow after Patrick Mahomes, the second

861
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:08,720
Speaker 1: most likely quarterback to throw fifty plus touchdown passes this season.

862
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: So look that was before the injury. If Joe Burrow

863
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:16,839
Speaker 1: plays all seventeen games, I think that stat and that

864
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 1: metric holds up that model for Kerner. He also pointed

865
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:25,399
Speaker 1: out he's better as a fantasy quarterback than you would

866
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 1: think because last season he had twenty five plus rush

867
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 1: yards and or one touchdown in half of the games

868
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 1: that he played, so much better. To Simon's point, if

869
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 1: you want to, if you have to bet on the Bengals,

870
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 1: look for some longerish odds on Joe Burrow individual passing stats.

871
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:52,720
Speaker 1: But yeah, generally we're passing on the Bengals. I feel

872
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 1: like this is the best division of football. I think

873
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: we've proven it, and we're walking away to me with

874
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 1: one bet that we absolutely positively love based on the pricing,

875
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 1: and one bet that we love if you can get

876
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 1: a reduced juice, and both of them are the Cleveland Browns.

877
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,439
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns plus three fifty at bet three six five

878
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 1: to win the division. Cleveland Brown's over eight and a half.

879
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 1: Right now, it's pretty expensive. Minus one seventy at bet

880
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 1: three six five. But Simon, you've got him at nearly

881
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,240
Speaker 1: a game and a half better than that, so probably

882
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:26,399
Speaker 1: worth taking a plunge there.

883
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, just really tough lines with this division and the book.

884
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:32,000
Speaker 2: The books are smart the.

885
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: Way they said these best division in football.

886
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 2: And I would say the only reason I wouldn't bet

887
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 2: that Joe Burrow to reach that number of touchdown passes

888
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 2: is Joe Mixon is too good. Like I think there's

889
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 2: there's too many times there'll be in the red zone

890
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: and they'll just feed it to Joe, Like Joe has

891
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,400
Speaker 2: a nose, Joe Mix, I'm talking here, he has a

892
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 2: nose for the end zone. That's the only knockout I

893
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 2: have on that. Just they have a top five running back.

894
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 2: It's really hard not to feed that guy when you

895
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,920
Speaker 2: get in the red zone. He's just that good. So yeah, Chad,

896
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 2: the only other bet I'd really make other than the

897
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 2: Browns would be the over for that Ravens team. But

898
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:09,919
Speaker 2: you're you're right, Like, do I feel really confidhanded out

899
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 2: the bangles under?

900
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 1: No?

901
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 2: I really have to hold my nose and do it.

902
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:17,439
Speaker 2: Like it sucks to bet against Joe Burrow, but We're

903
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 2: just going by the book, and the book says you

904
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 2: take this under in one of the toughest divisions of football.

905
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 1: By the way, the under is minus one sixty. So

906
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 1: you're not getting, you know, any kind of favors or

907
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 1: discounts because that's it, you know that, That's what a

908
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 1: lot of people are thinking about. Yeah, all right, listen,

909
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:40,320
Speaker 1: we are proudly presented The Favorites podcast is proudly presented

910
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 1: by Bet three sos five, the world's favorite sports but brand.

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916
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Speaker 1: text one eight hundred Gambler. This has been The Favorites

917
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five, part of the Action Network.

918
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter. I am Schad Millman. Download us

919
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921
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922
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923
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:40,560
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