WEBVTT - Surveillance: Remembering Queen Elizabeth II

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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<v Speaker 1>with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa A. Brawmowitz. Daily we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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<v Speaker 1>international relations. To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg terminal.

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<v Speaker 1>As we begin this ten days of Morning, in our

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<v Speaker 1>commitment to London here with Bloomberg Surveillance, it is good

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<v Speaker 1>to speak to the editor in chief of Bloomberg, John

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<v Speaker 1>michels Waite, and what is important here is his commitment

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<v Speaker 1>to the literature with Adrian Wooldridge and the number of

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<v Speaker 1>books that they have put out over the years. I

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<v Speaker 1>want to go to a what if, John, because we

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<v Speaker 1>do not know the schedule forward. There is In the

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<v Speaker 1>first time I walked into it, I fell apart. Westminster Hall,

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<v Speaker 1>not Westminster Abbey, but this small all right next to it,

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<v Speaker 1>that that one person and a night one said we

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<v Speaker 1>need to save Westminster Hall. Let the commons burn. And

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<v Speaker 1>there has to be some heritage there, some symbolism as

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<v Speaker 1>you more in your Queen. I think Westminster Hall also

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<v Speaker 1>is the place as I remember it, and I may

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<v Speaker 1>have got this wrong that I think Charles the First

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<v Speaker 1>went too shortly before he was executed, and there have

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<v Speaker 1>been countless other people. So it is it is actually

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<v Speaker 1>very um related to the monarchy and to British history,

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<v Speaker 1>and so it's right at the middle things. I do think,

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<v Speaker 1>actually strangely in this case, I think there is something

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<v Speaker 1>very um your sense of history Tom is correct, is

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<v Speaker 1>that there is something at this precise moment that very

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<v Speaker 1>sort of historical about this. And there's also a sense

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<v Speaker 1>of the monarchy from an earlier age if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the inheritance from Charles's point of view, he is

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<v Speaker 1>coming into a kingdom that is in danger of breaking up.

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<v Speaker 1>He's coming into a kingdom that has got poor relations

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<v Speaker 1>with its ancestral um other half in in France and

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<v Speaker 1>Germany and things like that. And he's also got a

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<v Speaker 1>sort of brand new chancellor if he wanted under the

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<v Speaker 1>old terms in his trust. So there is a there is,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a not easy inheritance, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of history, from the monarchy's point of view, um,

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<v Speaker 1>this is an unusually difficult time, notwithstanding the huge amount

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<v Speaker 1>of coming together that is happening at the moment, John,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you expect that he is going to reposition

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<v Speaker 1>this monarchy in the world that you describe. I think

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a mixture between trying to keep the

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<v Speaker 1>inherent strength that his mother had, which was the ability

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<v Speaker 1>to bring people together. You and I just talking before,

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<v Speaker 1>where you could become from wildly different backgrounds. In this country,

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<v Speaker 1>you could come from worldly different racist genders, everything, and

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<v Speaker 1>people saw this woman as a center of what this

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<v Speaker 1>country was about. And in terms of international influence she was.

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<v Speaker 1>She was about as strong as soft power can get.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody you met around the world, doesn't matter. Even talking

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<v Speaker 1>to rulers in Asia last couple of weeks ago, they

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<v Speaker 1>are still fascinated by this woman who has, after all,

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<v Speaker 1>met everybody, or did meet everybody, and so as a

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<v Speaker 1>kind of weapon of self power, she was extraordinary. Now

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<v Speaker 1>you have a new person coming in, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>for Charles the sort of challenges possibly to step back

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit in terms of his advocacy. He's no

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<v Speaker 1>longer the heir to the throne. He's actually the he

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<v Speaker 1>now is the person at the middle of the English constitution.

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<v Speaker 1>He selects who the Prime Minister can be that. That

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<v Speaker 1>means you have to perhaps come a slightly more objective figure.

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<v Speaker 1>But the second thing is, you know, how do you

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<v Speaker 1>update the monarchy quietly without losing that sense of power

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<v Speaker 1>when you talk about updating the monarchy? Or one thing

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<v Speaker 1>that Queen Elizabeth the Second did was it she became

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<v Speaker 1>an icon of culture. She became, as one historian said,

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<v Speaker 1>she is tower Bridge and a red double decker bus

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<v Speaker 1>and two legs, not to mention big an afternoon tea

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<v Speaker 1>village bets and sheep flecked hills. How much can the

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<v Speaker 1>new king, King Charles the Second really move at a

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<v Speaker 1>point checking Charles the Third come out and actually represents

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<v Speaker 1>something cultural? And if not, what relevancy will this monarchy have?

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<v Speaker 1>Quite interesting? The world in which just thinking whilst you

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<v Speaker 1>were talking, the world in which John and I grew

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<v Speaker 1>up obviously John massively younger than me, but but stamps.

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<v Speaker 1>The basic fact is the thing you were used to

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<v Speaker 1>seeing was the monarch's head on a stamp. Well, now

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<v Speaker 1>we don't see as many stamps. It's difficult to imprint

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<v Speaker 1>the monarch's head on an email, and issues like that.

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<v Speaker 1>I do think it is it's a question of rebranding.

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<v Speaker 1>When you looked at the jubilee celebrations um recently, in

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<v Speaker 1>which Charles is right in the middle. You know, there

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<v Speaker 1>were some things that worked, putting great big images on

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<v Speaker 1>top of sucking palace. There were other things which maybe

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<v Speaker 1>just felt it was a bit like watching your your

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<v Speaker 1>kind of granddad tried to dance. Um that there was

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<v Speaker 1>there was a little is of that. So it's a

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult thing and at different times. The clever thing

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<v Speaker 1>about the Queen is she was quite good at letting

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<v Speaker 1>the junior royals go off and try things. That was

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<v Speaker 1>a famous thing called It's a knockout, which is too

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<v Speaker 1>painful to go through, but where they are dressed in

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<v Speaker 1>medieval costumes and sort of through sponges at each other.

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<v Speaker 1>But that was conveniently. You know, you've got to explain this.

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<v Speaker 1>It was a kind of game show that had appeared

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<v Speaker 1>on television, which the more I think about it, the

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<v Speaker 1>less easier it is to defend to any audience that

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<v Speaker 1>stretches beyond this this particular kingdom. The royals a game

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<v Speaker 1>show they did once and it did not work out well,

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<v Speaker 1>so they perhaps that perhaps was something that went on

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<v Speaker 1>entirely work. They were like it was like a guest

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<v Speaker 1>version for charity um but it didn't entirely work and

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<v Speaker 1>I cannot remember the full details of so please don't

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<v Speaker 1>probably was not a success. A decent place to pause

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<v Speaker 1>and reflect just for another moment. There have been times

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<v Speaker 1>in the history of this royal family, even with Queen

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<v Speaker 1>Elizabeth on the throne, where they've had difficulty connecting with

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<v Speaker 1>the British people. Do you think Charles is going to

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<v Speaker 1>have that difficulty? And I think of a particular generation

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<v Speaker 1>very much enamored with the late Princess Diana, were uncomfortable

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<v Speaker 1>with Camilla taking the title of queen. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>my personal view is that that has moved on. I

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<v Speaker 1>remember that very well. But my my senses, that has

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<v Speaker 1>moved on, and Charles has sort of pushed himself, notwithstanding

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<v Speaker 1>certain Netflix series, has pushed himself back into the and

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<v Speaker 1>several films has pushed himself back into the middle, and

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<v Speaker 1>he is that he is now a more respected figure

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<v Speaker 1>than he was then. But the interesting point is this

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<v Speaker 1>is that the thing that determines the monic is that

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<v Speaker 1>old sort Harold McMillan thing about events, dear boy events.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's what nobody could have guessed what was

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen to Elizabeth. Nobody can guess what's going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen to Charles. We know he faces some things

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<v Speaker 1>like the possibility of Scotland and Norman Ireland maybe leaving

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<v Speaker 1>his union. We're here for ten days. You ever restaurant

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<v Speaker 1>place to hear the Bloomberg Country was banned from mentioning

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<v Speaker 1>the Crown on Netflix for a whole time. Henry quite

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<v Speaker 1>right now an important moment with Mohammad l Arion has

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<v Speaker 1>been such a friend of Bloomberg Surveillance over the years.

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<v Speaker 1>He is a president of Queen's College, Cambridge and they

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<v Speaker 1>are deeply affected by the death of their patron. To Arian,

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<v Speaker 1>the history of Queen's College is extraordinary. We don't need

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<v Speaker 1>to go over it now, but it is the back

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<v Speaker 1>and forth of Queen and king over centuries and centuries,

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<v Speaker 1>back to roughly fourteen five. We now have a new

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<v Speaker 1>transition as well. How do you perceive your patron in

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<v Speaker 1>the shift to King Charles? The third calm facts for

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<v Speaker 1>having me um. We are extremely sad at the passing

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<v Speaker 1>of her Majesty the Queen. I don't think I can

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<v Speaker 1>find words that express the size and scale of the

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<v Speaker 1>loss that's being felt by the United Kingdom, by people

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<v Speaker 1>around the world, and especially by our community because as

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<v Speaker 1>you say, she was our patroness. She visited the college,

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<v Speaker 1>she encouraged and inspired generations of students, of faculty and

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<v Speaker 1>of staff. So there's a real sense of loss right

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<v Speaker 1>now in mourning and wanting to honor her incredible reign. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>we're not looking forward to tell you the truth as

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<v Speaker 1>to what next right now. This is a period of

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<v Speaker 1>deep reflection and gratitude for what her Majesty the Queen

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<v Speaker 1>did for Queen's College, Cambridge. One of the hallmarks of

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<v Speaker 1>her reign was the diversity of the United Kingdom. Cambridge

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<v Speaker 1>let on that as well, and some would say Muhammad

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<v Speaker 1>Aryan let on it as well. There's a shark the

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<v Speaker 1>Trust cabinet, the senior officials showing the diversity of the

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<v Speaker 1>United Kingdom from the University of Cambridge state the diversity

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<v Speaker 1>the Queen Elizabeth brought. She would speak to everyone and

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<v Speaker 1>he would and would encourage us to be more inclusive,

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<v Speaker 1>more diverse, and to continue in the daily fight of

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<v Speaker 1>reducing obstacle to access to a Cambridge education. It's all

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<v Speaker 1>about access and participation and her Majesty was a leader

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<v Speaker 1>in this regard. She believed in a very inclusive in community.

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<v Speaker 1>I cannot tell you that when she would come and

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<v Speaker 1>visit us, she would spend as much time with the

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<v Speaker 1>president as she would with the head gardener, with the

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<v Speaker 1>head of our student body. She would go around and

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<v Speaker 1>talk to people in a very personal and engaging fashion,

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<v Speaker 1>and she was an inspiration in terms of inclusion and diversity. Mohammed.

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<v Speaker 1>The last time she visited you was back in as

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<v Speaker 1>recently as can you share with us just a little

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<v Speaker 1>something from that, how special that visit was for you

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<v Speaker 1>in the college, there was incredibly special, John Um, not

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<v Speaker 1>only because we were hosting her Majesty for lunch, but

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<v Speaker 1>we invited our community to come out and the joy

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<v Speaker 1>with which they welcomed her to Queen's and the interaction

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<v Speaker 1>with her Um. There are pictures on our website of

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<v Speaker 1>her meeting with the students, meeting with the start um,

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<v Speaker 1>spending time and caring, and then it was a wonderful

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<v Speaker 1>lunch in which we thanked her for her very strong

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<v Speaker 1>support of our college. You know, she she followed the

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<v Speaker 1>Queen Mother who was our patron as before her UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's been a constant for us, just like it

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<v Speaker 1>has been a constant for the whole nation. Mohammed. This

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<v Speaker 1>has been one of the key points that keep coming

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<v Speaker 1>back to, that she was the embodiment of a spirit

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<v Speaker 1>of the United Kingdom that will be hard to replace,

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<v Speaker 1>and that she really created the modern version of a monarchy.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you give us a sense, a more tangible sense

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<v Speaker 1>of why it is, especially for people outside of the

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<v Speaker 1>United Kingdom, that she acted in this role even though

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<v Speaker 1>she is a figurehead right, that she is a political

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<v Speaker 1>by definition, and that she is looking to remain a

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<v Speaker 1>sort of a public relations persona rather than a leader

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<v Speaker 1>like the Parliament. It was Lisa her inspiration. She has

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<v Speaker 1>inspired so many in the United Kingdom and around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>and I would argue she will continue to long inspire

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<v Speaker 1>people around the world. So where did that inspiration come from?

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<v Speaker 1>I think from free things. One her empathy. She she

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<v Speaker 1>was very empathetic, she listened to people. Second, her dedication.

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<v Speaker 1>She said it on day one that she would be

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<v Speaker 1>dedicated to serve the nation and she continued serving the

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<v Speaker 1>nation for over seven decades as the monarch. And third

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<v Speaker 1>was her responsiveness. So when you put these things together,

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<v Speaker 1>it sums up in instruational leadership that overcomes all sorts

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<v Speaker 1>of divisions within society, and that was flexible enough to

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<v Speaker 1>take the United Kingdom through massive changes. If you look at, Wow,

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<v Speaker 1>how different the United Kingdom of today is compared to

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<v Speaker 1>the one of seventy years ago when she became queen,

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<v Speaker 1>and she she was able to navigate all that inspiring

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<v Speaker 1>us inspire a whole nation throughout that whole period, Mohammed.

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<v Speaker 1>Given how much things have changed, as you talk about,

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<v Speaker 1>given Brexit, given the fact that the United Kingdom has

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<v Speaker 1>shrunk in its scope with relation to some of these

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<v Speaker 1>trade partnerships or at least nomenclature, it is the new

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<v Speaker 1>vision going forward? Does it adhere back to that one?

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<v Speaker 1>Or is this truly a marking of a new regime.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there are many challenges facing the United Kingdom,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's true for the new Prime Minister who recognized

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<v Speaker 1>that on day one. But I think Lisa, right now,

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<v Speaker 1>it's about her majesty, Queen Elizabeth. The second, it's about

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<v Speaker 1>morning her death. It's about honoring her accomplishment and honoring

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<v Speaker 1>her wain Um. There will come the day when we

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<v Speaker 1>will sit down and talk about all the challenges ahead,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think this is a really important moment in

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<v Speaker 1>history because she has played such an important role, not

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<v Speaker 1>just in this country but around the world. Mohammed, thank

0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 1>you for marking this moment in history well us. We

0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:57.720
<v Speaker 1>appreciate it and I think we all agree with certainly

0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.480
<v Speaker 1>not the day to discuss markets in the economy with you. Mohammed,

0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:02.520
<v Speaker 1>Thank you very much for giving us your time this morning. Mohamed.

0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:15.680
<v Speaker 1>Down are in that of Queen's College, Cambridge. We touched

0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 1>on another of the Queen's efforts, which is Chatham House.

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.720
<v Speaker 1>You've heard that name in America less familiar, but in

0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.760
<v Speaker 1>London dominant is one of the great think tanks and

0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 1>places of perspective for the United Kingdom. Sir Robant Nibla

0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 1>joins us right now, Director of Chatham House, and I

0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:34.520
<v Speaker 1>thought on your website the commitment of the Queen, particularly

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:37.760
<v Speaker 1>Robin to the academics that you did in two thousand

0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:41.320
<v Speaker 1>and fourteen, her leadership to jump start that project give

0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 1>us a window into two thousand and fourteen and what

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.280
<v Speaker 1>the Queen did for Chatham House. Tom happy to um,

0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:49.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm now distinguished fellow Chatham House. We have a new

0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:52.360
<v Speaker 1>director as of a month ago Roman Matics, but I

0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 1>had the pleasure of it was fine. I've had a

0:14:55.960 --> 0:15:01.360
<v Speaker 1>pleasure of hosting Uh Her Majesty twice in recent years,

0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.280
<v Speaker 1>most of the Chata Mouse Prize when she gave it

0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:09.560
<v Speaker 1>to David attenburghen was when we launched the Queen Elizabeth

0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.360
<v Speaker 1>Academy for International Affairs. And I think one of the

0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 1>big challenges for institutions in London has been able to

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 1>make sure that you're still well connected to young people

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:22.400
<v Speaker 1>around the world, engaging them in what London has to offer,

0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.520
<v Speaker 1>what Britain has to offer as a place of independent thinking,

0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:27.920
<v Speaker 1>which is what Chatham House about is as well. And

0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 1>Her Majesty gave her name to the creation of a

0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 1>new academy, came met with the first cohort of Academy

0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:39.440
<v Speaker 1>fellows from all over the world UM, and I think

0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:43.920
<v Speaker 1>what we wanted to do by having this UM Academy

0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:46.240
<v Speaker 1>named in her honor was captured. The fact you're not

0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:48.840
<v Speaker 1>gonna have a patron of institution for seventy years very

0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:52.400
<v Speaker 1>often and it was absolutely remarkable, wonderful to be able

0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:54.360
<v Speaker 1>to have to connect it that way, but also to

0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 1>be able to track some of the brightest, most driven

0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.080
<v Speaker 1>change makers around the world come and spend some time.

0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:05.160
<v Speaker 1>She her example is a draw. It was the most

0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:08.400
<v Speaker 1>important part of written soft power in her example was

0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.680
<v Speaker 1>the Commonwealth. There was a Commonwealth of the early fifties

0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:14.640
<v Speaker 1>and the tumult of the sixties and seventies. What does

0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:18.880
<v Speaker 1>Charles the Third's Commonwealth look like? It's going to be

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:23.040
<v Speaker 1>very difficult, um, for a number of reasons. In a way,

0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:28.600
<v Speaker 1>it was held together by respect for Her Majesty for

0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:32.000
<v Speaker 1>the Queen Um as well as by that common sense

0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 1>of heritage of having formed part of the British Empire.

0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 1>But being forming part of the British Empire even as

0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.560
<v Speaker 1>independent nations is now something that receives a lot more

0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:43.520
<v Speaker 1>scrutiny than it did in the past. And so what

0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:45.600
<v Speaker 1>we're going to find, I think in the coming years

0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:51.160
<v Speaker 1>UM is potentially Charles having to enable the Commonwealth to

0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:55.120
<v Speaker 1>redefine its purpose amongst those nations without the glue of

0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:58.200
<v Speaker 1>Her Majesty the Queen there to hold it together. We've

0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:03.960
<v Speaker 1>already had some moves away from having the Sovereign Her

0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 1>Majesty as the head of state from one Commonwealth member

0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:10.159
<v Speaker 1>by betas a year ago, and there's a worry that

0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:13.119
<v Speaker 1>the whole review of the role of empire, slavery and

0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:16.160
<v Speaker 1>so on will start to come back in and put

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.080
<v Speaker 1>the UK in a much more difficult position in the future. Robin,

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:21.640
<v Speaker 1>we really do mark the end of an era exactly

0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:24.639
<v Speaker 1>as you say, not only a unifying force, but a

0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:29.400
<v Speaker 1>redefinition of globalization, a redefinition of the United Kingdom and

0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.800
<v Speaker 1>the broader empire that it used to have. Right, all

0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.680
<v Speaker 1>of these redefining aspects of the new moment, What will

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:40.280
<v Speaker 1>be the new definition of the next ten years? How

0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.639
<v Speaker 1>will King Charles the third come out and shape a

0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:47.200
<v Speaker 1>new vision in the world as you see it. Look,

0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:50.040
<v Speaker 1>the challenge that any monarchers here is that they can't

0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 1>establish a vision. They can't declare a vision to the

0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:57.280
<v Speaker 1>rest of the nation. In our constitutional monarchy, they really

0:17:57.320 --> 0:18:00.760
<v Speaker 1>are the holders of continuity, but then not the agents

0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.720
<v Speaker 1>of political change in politics, so in a way it

0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:05.880
<v Speaker 1>will be up to this trust of future prime ministers

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:08.480
<v Speaker 1>to establish the vision of the country. What he has

0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:13.080
<v Speaker 1>to communicate is again the linkage to the continuity. Part

0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:16.080
<v Speaker 1>of I'd say Britain's soft power has been the fact

0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:19.200
<v Speaker 1>that it has had such stable politics for so long

0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:22.920
<v Speaker 1>and However, quickly the government's change of the prime ministers change.

0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.240
<v Speaker 1>The fact that the head of state has continuity in

0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 1>the family is part of its power. So what the

0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:31.480
<v Speaker 1>monarchy does is give space to governments to go through

0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:34.479
<v Speaker 1>profound change without a sense that the whole nation has

0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:37.720
<v Speaker 1>been called into question. So I think in a way

0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 1>Prince Charles, who has leant forward quite a bit as

0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:45.560
<v Speaker 1>a Prince of Wales on climate change, on architecture, biodiversity,

0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:49.639
<v Speaker 1>on architecture exactly, is now going to step back and

0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:52.560
<v Speaker 1>have to to become the cipher that the queen was

0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:54.920
<v Speaker 1>for what other people believe the nation is. It's gonna

0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:57.880
<v Speaker 1>be a really delicate change within some real estate investors

0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:00.479
<v Speaker 1>that are happy with this in London. That my in

0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:04.240
<v Speaker 1>my backup, I think they'll be happy for that reason.

0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:05.639
<v Speaker 1>He won't be able to weigh in the way he

0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:08.240
<v Speaker 1>did before important of the New Yorker. I read the

0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:11.160
<v Speaker 1>New Yorker effort here of the last twenty four hours

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:15.240
<v Speaker 1>and around Mead Rebecca media it was very good about

0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:19.240
<v Speaker 1>this psychological shift that any monarch has to make. Chian

0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:25.760
<v Speaker 1>He's Charles and then he's King. Third, was it Chelsea Barracks?

0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:29.560
<v Speaker 1>Was it Chausy Barracks all those years ago. Ya kataris

0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:32.919
<v Speaker 1>Royal to royal, they were able to have a different

0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.359
<v Speaker 1>type of conversation. I think I'm not getting us off

0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:39.040
<v Speaker 1>into trouble. Was your pet projects? I learned the backstory

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:40.800
<v Speaker 1>when used to live in Chausea. He used to walk

0:19:40.800 --> 0:19:43.119
<v Speaker 1>past there and it was a big, big conversation at

0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:46.520
<v Speaker 1>the time. Do my do my PhD at Oxford? As

0:19:46.560 --> 0:19:49.320
<v Speaker 1>I was writing it, A buildings being built in front

0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 1>in mordel In College and done in all of the

0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:55.640
<v Speaker 1>old style of modeling college but being built in nineteen

0:19:56.280 --> 0:19:58.359
<v Speaker 1>was nineteen three or something. And at one point I

0:19:58.359 --> 0:20:01.480
<v Speaker 1>watched the building go up. Suddy saw this person walking

0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:02.960
<v Speaker 1>here us the top with the gaggle of people and

0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:07.639
<v Speaker 1>it was Prince Charles being shown around. And you know,

0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:09.880
<v Speaker 1>I didn't have a mobile in those days, but it

0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:11.720
<v Speaker 1>was the old building in the keeping and I have

0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:16.080
<v Speaker 1>to say it worked beautifully. So we see the king

0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:19.080
<v Speaker 1>doing that. Who knows? So Robin Nibblett, thank you, Thank

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:25.760
<v Speaker 1>you so much, distinguished fellow at Chatham House. I'm happy

0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:28.040
<v Speaker 1>to say that John gets now. Sevince Cable, the former

0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:30.920
<v Speaker 1>MP and visiting professor at the London School of Economics

0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:33.760
<v Speaker 1>and Political Science, s Vince, fantastic to have you with us,

0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:37.159
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for being with us. Inevitably we'll talk about change

0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:40.399
<v Speaker 1>and what will change with a new monarch on the throne.

0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:43.920
<v Speaker 1>What will change for you, sir well, I was privileged

0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:46.719
<v Speaker 1>as a private councilor of cabinet minister to dealt with

0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:49.800
<v Speaker 1>her Majesty, and you know, and I understand, as I

0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:53.520
<v Speaker 1>have seen out close, the reasons why the country has

0:20:53.600 --> 0:20:57.520
<v Speaker 1>such respect and affection for her um and so it

0:20:57.720 --> 0:21:00.760
<v Speaker 1>is a I mean, this moment is on the one hand,

0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:03.719
<v Speaker 1>very predicted. I mean, we all knew this was going

0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:07.000
<v Speaker 1>to happen, but at the same time momentous. And you

0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:10.399
<v Speaker 1>have a whole generation of people, you know, seventy or under,

0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:14.080
<v Speaker 1>you've lived your whole life in the Elizabethan age. I

0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:18.399
<v Speaker 1>think for a politician, I'm an hour retired politician, I

0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:21.960
<v Speaker 1>think the significance was that although we had, you know,

0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:28.800
<v Speaker 1>a great change, turbulence, um, big secular changes over time,

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:32.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, the monarchy and the queen was a kind

0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:37.240
<v Speaker 1>of bedrock of continuity and stability throughout that and remains

0:21:37.359 --> 0:21:40.200
<v Speaker 1>one of the sort of underlying strengths of the country

0:21:40.440 --> 0:21:42.280
<v Speaker 1>and it rests upon the fact that it is a

0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:46.399
<v Speaker 1>constitutional monarchy. It doesn't have a political role, and it

0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.600
<v Speaker 1>will be very important that the new king, you know,

0:21:49.800 --> 0:21:52.520
<v Speaker 1>is seen by the world in the country as a

0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:57.040
<v Speaker 1>totally non political figure. Surveiance. I think it's so important

0:21:57.080 --> 0:21:58.399
<v Speaker 1>to speak to you you here. I'd love to do a

0:21:58.400 --> 0:22:01.440
<v Speaker 1>two hour conversation with your Now, if you look at

0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:04.800
<v Speaker 1>your party history as a kid, when you were at

0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:08.040
<v Speaker 1>Cambridge and I'm from their Glasgow and such, and then

0:22:08.080 --> 0:22:11.160
<v Speaker 1>you find that you were the chief economist for Royal

0:22:11.240 --> 0:22:13.760
<v Speaker 1>Dutch Shell for a while as well, you have a

0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:19.320
<v Speaker 1>backdrop here of this emergency moment for your United Kingdom.

0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:23.639
<v Speaker 1>How does Charles the third provide support to Prime Minister

0:22:23.760 --> 0:22:27.600
<v Speaker 1>trust Well, I think given the way in which the

0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:30.879
<v Speaker 1>monarchy works, and I think we all wanted to continue

0:22:30.920 --> 0:22:33.760
<v Speaker 1>to work, and I think there are very few Republicans

0:22:33.760 --> 0:22:38.160
<v Speaker 1>in Britain. Um, it is by respecting this boundary between

0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:43.119
<v Speaker 1>politics and the head of state role, and um, I

0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:46.760
<v Speaker 1>mean King Charles. It's an enormously difficult job. I mean

0:22:46.800 --> 0:22:50.400
<v Speaker 1>he's been auditioning for this for fifty years. He could

0:22:50.400 --> 0:22:54.400
<v Speaker 1>have stepped into the monarch role at any time and

0:22:54.520 --> 0:22:59.639
<v Speaker 1>he it's it's required extraordinary self discipline from him um

0:22:59.720 --> 0:23:02.880
<v Speaker 1>and has been a very very difficult role. And he's now,

0:23:03.080 --> 0:23:07.040
<v Speaker 1>as you say, seventy three and he's inheriting this responsibility.

0:23:07.400 --> 0:23:09.200
<v Speaker 1>I think one of the things he will be very

0:23:09.280 --> 0:23:14.280
<v Speaker 1>mindful of bearing in mind, you know, the enormous respect

0:23:14.400 --> 0:23:18.560
<v Speaker 1>for his mother, who was scrupulously non political through the

0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:22.159
<v Speaker 1>whole of her reign. I mean, he has at times,

0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:25.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, straight into the political world, most recently over Rwanda,

0:23:26.040 --> 0:23:30.040
<v Speaker 1>and he will, I think, in order to maintain the

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:34.159
<v Speaker 1>solidity of the monarchy, be very very careful not to

0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:39.320
<v Speaker 1>go into the um. I have no idea. I mean

0:23:39.359 --> 0:23:42.439
<v Speaker 1>I I met him a few times, and I like

0:23:42.560 --> 0:23:46.840
<v Speaker 1>what he did, and he was genuinely socially concerned individual.

0:23:46.920 --> 0:23:50.320
<v Speaker 1>I absolutely no idea about his political thing. I was

0:23:50.320 --> 0:23:54.119
<v Speaker 1>trying to cause some trouble. I think it's such a

0:23:54.160 --> 0:23:58.720
<v Speaker 1>delicate moment because supported he didn't tell me, because we've

0:23:58.720 --> 0:24:02.000
<v Speaker 1>been talking all morning about Dove telling uh the death

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:05.959
<v Speaker 1>of a monarch who really represented the United Kingdom for

0:24:06.000 --> 0:24:09.440
<v Speaker 1>so many years and grew up through steamboats. Until there's this,

0:24:09.640 --> 0:24:12.879
<v Speaker 1>you know, a smartphone, and we are here on the

0:24:12.920 --> 0:24:16.920
<v Speaker 1>preciface of a massive fiscal package without the unity required

0:24:17.359 --> 0:24:20.399
<v Speaker 1>to give confidence about how it will be executed, about

0:24:20.400 --> 0:24:22.840
<v Speaker 1>how effectively it will be managed with respect to the

0:24:22.880 --> 0:24:26.560
<v Speaker 1>fiscal profile of this nation. How are you watching this

0:24:26.680 --> 0:24:29.639
<v Speaker 1>as a former member of Parliament, the deliberations over the

0:24:29.760 --> 0:24:34.520
<v Speaker 1>energy help that liszt Trusts has proposed to households. I'm

0:24:34.560 --> 0:24:38.400
<v Speaker 1>surprised that the linkage that's been made with this big

0:24:38.440 --> 0:24:40.719
<v Speaker 1>economic moment. I mean they are I think they are

0:24:40.800 --> 0:24:45.880
<v Speaker 1>wholly separate and I I mean certainly the new king

0:24:45.960 --> 0:24:48.359
<v Speaker 1>will want to have absolutely nothing to do with the

0:24:48.560 --> 0:24:53.760
<v Speaker 1>controversies around the fiscal package, and I shouldn't. I mean

0:24:54.000 --> 0:24:56.240
<v Speaker 1>his role list to revive I mean the phrase that

0:24:56.400 --> 0:25:01.479
<v Speaker 1>you've been using common continuity and stability amongst political and

0:25:01.520 --> 0:25:04.359
<v Speaker 1>economic upheaval. That's his job. It's not to take up

0:25:04.359 --> 0:25:08.360
<v Speaker 1>a position on these economic decisions. I mean that will

0:25:08.400 --> 0:25:11.560
<v Speaker 1>happen anyway. The big change and the Treasury, of course,

0:25:11.600 --> 0:25:15.160
<v Speaker 1>has been the loss of the sacking of the Permanent Secretary.

0:25:15.200 --> 0:25:17.879
<v Speaker 1>I mean that is the big event from the economic

0:25:17.880 --> 0:25:22.080
<v Speaker 1>policy point of view. But the planning of the details

0:25:22.080 --> 0:25:25.679
<v Speaker 1>of the fiscal package will proceed, and although there may

0:25:25.720 --> 0:25:29.960
<v Speaker 1>be a slight hiatus in the announcements. Nothing is going

0:25:30.000 --> 0:25:33.320
<v Speaker 1>to happen to disturb the development of the policy. Well,

0:25:33.359 --> 0:25:35.800
<v Speaker 1>things will pause events which are soon from the Bank

0:25:35.800 --> 0:25:39.960
<v Speaker 1>of England. The NPC announcement has been rescheduled to twenty September.

0:25:40.560 --> 0:25:43.400
<v Speaker 1>To the September so I understand that's a one week

0:25:43.560 --> 0:25:44.959
<v Speaker 1>delay for the Bank of Englan at least. I think

0:25:44.960 --> 0:25:46.440
<v Speaker 1>that was the first thing you asked this morning. Go

0:25:46.560 --> 0:25:48.359
<v Speaker 1>for me when we landed, are we still going to

0:25:48.400 --> 0:25:51.000
<v Speaker 1>get a bank having the decision next week? And I said,

0:25:51.000 --> 0:25:53.199
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, we'll see, And here we are. It

0:25:53.280 --> 0:25:55.280
<v Speaker 1>is going to be delayed by one week. Yeah, and

0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:57.400
<v Speaker 1>whether this actually gives them a little bit more certainty

0:25:57.480 --> 0:25:59.120
<v Speaker 1>might be interesting to see as well, whether we get

0:25:59.160 --> 0:26:02.920
<v Speaker 1>more fiscal proposals were concretely from both the European Union

0:26:02.920 --> 0:26:06.080
<v Speaker 1>as well as from list Trust's team over in Parliament.

0:26:06.240 --> 0:26:09.200
<v Speaker 1>Thomas Sevince set things will continue, but for now they pause,

0:26:09.680 --> 0:26:11.280
<v Speaker 1>and we're saying that with the Bank of Englands wound

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:12.800
<v Speaker 1>and we'll see that with the whole host of events

0:26:12.800 --> 0:26:15.080
<v Speaker 1>to a scheduled to take place over the next ten dice.

0:26:15.160 --> 0:26:17.560
<v Speaker 1>As I mentioned, my template for this in a very

0:26:17.600 --> 0:26:21.399
<v Speaker 1>different moment was nie I had the clearest memories of

0:26:21.480 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 1>how America paused for the funeral of President Kennedy. Why

0:26:26.600 --> 0:26:28.720
<v Speaker 1>is as different as we saw with the Premier League

0:26:28.760 --> 0:26:32.000
<v Speaker 1>twenty minutes ago. Now with the Bank of England, Who's

0:26:32.040 --> 0:26:36.680
<v Speaker 1>gonna who's gonna push against those institutions? Vince, we say

0:26:36.720 --> 0:26:40.280
<v Speaker 1>thank you, thank you very much. We appreciate your time set.

0:26:50.560 --> 0:26:53.040
<v Speaker 1>She has steeped in theory. Marilyn Watson joins us out

0:26:53.040 --> 0:26:57.880
<v Speaker 1>ahead of global fundamental fixed income strategy at black Rock Maryland.

0:26:57.920 --> 0:26:59.800
<v Speaker 1>Not to make the punt of the moment, but which

0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:03.040
<v Speaker 1>act do I hide under right now? I mean within

0:27:03.400 --> 0:27:06.920
<v Speaker 1>a bond portfolio is a simple solution to shorten you duration.

0:27:08.800 --> 0:27:11.240
<v Speaker 1>So I think as I say, there are a lot

0:27:11.280 --> 0:27:14.080
<v Speaker 1>of moving parts at the moment, and particularly and say

0:27:14.200 --> 0:27:17.159
<v Speaker 1>we have the ECB, but the said coming up in

0:27:17.200 --> 0:27:20.440
<v Speaker 1>a couple of times. Obviously they're backfinant of duty slightly

0:27:20.440 --> 0:27:23.600
<v Speaker 1>out their data as well. But we are as seeing

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:26.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of volatility in the markets at the moment.

0:27:26.119 --> 0:27:27.600
<v Speaker 1>And I think you've hit the nail on the head

0:27:27.640 --> 0:27:31.280
<v Speaker 1>there in terms of where do you find some yields,

0:27:31.320 --> 0:27:33.720
<v Speaker 1>Where do you find maybe a little bit of safety

0:27:33.720 --> 0:27:36.359
<v Speaker 1>in the market. I certainly think now there's shifts that

0:27:36.400 --> 0:27:38.560
<v Speaker 1>we've seen in terms of yield, in terms of spread,

0:27:39.080 --> 0:27:41.919
<v Speaker 1>we do see a lot more attractive area in the market,

0:27:42.400 --> 0:27:45.680
<v Speaker 1>whether it's in US duration UM you know, we've seen

0:27:45.720 --> 0:27:48.960
<v Speaker 1>obviously rates there to get the front end um, you know,

0:27:49.080 --> 0:27:52.280
<v Speaker 1>shift significantly, and I do think if you're looking sort

0:27:52.280 --> 0:27:55.520
<v Speaker 1>of at the front end in terms of quality perry,

0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:57.720
<v Speaker 1>then now I do think there are some very attractive

0:27:57.760 --> 0:28:00.440
<v Speaker 1>areas were to invest in fix income. But we are

0:28:00.520 --> 0:28:04.000
<v Speaker 1>expecting to see this continued volatility going forward over the

0:28:04.000 --> 0:28:07.679
<v Speaker 1>next few months, as we have inflation still incredibly in

0:28:07.720 --> 0:28:11.879
<v Speaker 1>the US, in the U Zone an elsewhere, and a

0:28:11.920 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 1>lot of decisions to be made on a non linear

0:28:15.560 --> 0:28:18.560
<v Speaker 1>basis the path from under two percent and a ten

0:28:18.640 --> 0:28:22.119
<v Speaker 1>year yield in March and up we go. If we

0:28:22.160 --> 0:28:24.800
<v Speaker 1>do break out where many expect to go three and

0:28:24.800 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 1>a half three point six, five, three point nine ten

0:28:29.160 --> 0:28:34.879
<v Speaker 1>year yield, how does that change your world? So it

0:28:34.920 --> 0:28:38.320
<v Speaker 1>doesn't change it that significantly in the fact that I

0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:42.000
<v Speaker 1>think we, among with many other investors, are still relatively

0:28:42.040 --> 0:28:45.000
<v Speaker 1>cautious around the rate path going paws in terms of

0:28:45.240 --> 0:28:47.720
<v Speaker 1>where the peak might be in terms of rates we

0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:50.480
<v Speaker 1>expected to peak the term or right to be maybe

0:28:50.480 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 1>around just under four percent. But I think looking at

0:28:54.680 --> 0:28:57.040
<v Speaker 1>the path now, if you if you do see a

0:28:57.040 --> 0:28:59.200
<v Speaker 1>little bit of a spread there in terms of where

0:28:59.200 --> 0:29:02.520
<v Speaker 1>they not, it might be why the top of the

0:29:02.600 --> 0:29:05.320
<v Speaker 1>you might be I think, you know, we're expecting that,

0:29:05.320 --> 0:29:07.760
<v Speaker 1>we're expecting volatility. I think a lot of the investors

0:29:07.800 --> 0:29:10.240
<v Speaker 1>are respecting the same as well. We still still still

0:29:10.240 --> 0:29:12.440
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of money invested um, you know, in

0:29:12.600 --> 0:29:15.240
<v Speaker 1>very safe assets. We have money so on the sidelines

0:29:15.240 --> 0:29:17.280
<v Speaker 1>in terms of cash, we do expect to see a

0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:19.680
<v Speaker 1>lot more supply going forward. We see expects a lot

0:29:19.680 --> 0:29:22.880
<v Speaker 1>of opportunities actually, So I think, you know, looking at

0:29:22.880 --> 0:29:25.040
<v Speaker 1>the market at the moment, as we do have quoditive

0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:27.760
<v Speaker 1>tightening going on, as the you know, the third is

0:29:27.760 --> 0:29:30.760
<v Speaker 1>reducing its balance sheet, as rates continue to rise in

0:29:30.800 --> 0:29:34.640
<v Speaker 1>the US and elsewhere, we can actually use this volatility

0:29:34.800 --> 0:29:38.880
<v Speaker 1>to take advantage of evaluations where we see them. So

0:29:38.960 --> 0:29:40.560
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about some of the guides that you use

0:29:40.640 --> 0:29:43.760
<v Speaker 1>Maryland when you're looking for opportunities at a time when

0:29:43.800 --> 0:29:47.000
<v Speaker 1>we have inflation that may just may come down to

0:29:47.080 --> 0:29:49.520
<v Speaker 1>eight point one percent in the euroregion or that's the

0:29:49.560 --> 0:29:52.600
<v Speaker 1>expectation on average, and then go down to two point

0:29:52.640 --> 0:29:55.360
<v Speaker 1>eight percent several years from now. This is the baseline

0:29:55.400 --> 0:29:58.240
<v Speaker 1>and some would say even optimistic projection from the ECB.

0:29:59.200 --> 0:30:01.600
<v Speaker 1>We've got the same kind of talk from the Federal Reserve.

0:30:01.760 --> 0:30:04.800
<v Speaker 1>How do you factor inflation into your forecast? Is that

0:30:04.840 --> 0:30:07.560
<v Speaker 1>the reason why your underweight duration? Or is the fiscal

0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:12.120
<v Speaker 1>response that really has your attention? Um? So, it's both,

0:30:12.200 --> 0:30:16.560
<v Speaker 1>and I think the fiscal packages that you mentioned in

0:30:16.600 --> 0:30:20.120
<v Speaker 1>the fiscal response are going to play into inflation going

0:30:20.160 --> 0:30:22.560
<v Speaker 1>forward as well, and potentially they might make the job

0:30:22.600 --> 0:30:24.880
<v Speaker 1>of central banks that a little bit harder if we

0:30:24.920 --> 0:30:27.120
<v Speaker 1>do have we have these very sizeable packages that we're

0:30:27.120 --> 0:30:31.480
<v Speaker 1>seeing coming through from the UK, the US, and you

0:30:31.520 --> 0:30:34.720
<v Speaker 1>know in the Eurozone as well. Inflation does play obviously

0:30:34.760 --> 0:30:37.840
<v Speaker 1>a very key role in terms of um you know,

0:30:38.080 --> 0:30:41.080
<v Speaker 1>central bank munchro policy, but also obviously the yields of

0:30:41.200 --> 0:30:43.160
<v Speaker 1>bonds going forward, and it is something that we do

0:30:43.280 --> 0:30:47.000
<v Speaker 1>pay very keen attention to here in the US. Obviously,

0:30:47.080 --> 0:30:49.280
<v Speaker 1>next week we have some very significant data coming out

0:30:49.320 --> 0:30:52.840
<v Speaker 1>in terms of inflation cp I, p p I, and

0:30:52.880 --> 0:30:55.360
<v Speaker 1>the Federal obviously be paying very close attention to those

0:30:55.480 --> 0:30:58.600
<v Speaker 1>as it then goes into the following week. It's Muntro

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:01.120
<v Speaker 1>policy stance announcement to the FETAM announced that they are

0:31:01.120 --> 0:31:04.400
<v Speaker 1>able to continue to be very aggressive in terms of

0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:08.000
<v Speaker 1>trying to get inflation back down towards the two percent target.

0:31:08.440 --> 0:31:11.280
<v Speaker 1>And so inflation does play a very few role. And

0:31:11.280 --> 0:31:13.120
<v Speaker 1>I think at the moment in terms of central banks

0:31:13.160 --> 0:31:16.680
<v Speaker 1>that are also very concerned about credibility and the fact

0:31:16.760 --> 0:31:19.360
<v Speaker 1>that you know investors, they don't want investors to be

0:31:19.680 --> 0:31:23.720
<v Speaker 1>anchored in high inflation expectations. It's very important for them,

0:31:23.920 --> 0:31:27.120
<v Speaker 1>for investors and for the market to see inflation coming

0:31:27.160 --> 0:31:29.960
<v Speaker 1>down and to view the credibility of central banks in

0:31:30.000 --> 0:31:32.400
<v Speaker 1>bringing that inflation right down um. And I think that

0:31:32.520 --> 0:31:36.600
<v Speaker 1>is absolutely critical Maryland. When you talk about the idea

0:31:36.640 --> 0:31:39.479
<v Speaker 1>of credibility, we talk about the idea that the ECB

0:31:39.680 --> 0:31:42.960
<v Speaker 1>is not projecting a recession even as they get inflation

0:31:43.000 --> 0:31:46.040
<v Speaker 1>down at a time when even the CEO of Deutsche

0:31:46.040 --> 0:31:48.720
<v Speaker 1>Bank is saying that a recession is all but inevitable

0:31:49.080 --> 0:31:52.040
<v Speaker 1>in Europe's biggest economy. How what does that do for

0:31:52.080 --> 0:31:55.680
<v Speaker 1>their credibility that we are not hearing the recession calls

0:31:55.880 --> 0:31:59.200
<v Speaker 1>from the central bank to a Wall street, to a

0:31:59.280 --> 0:32:02.080
<v Speaker 1>city in and in to the rest of Europe. That

0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:05.560
<v Speaker 1>seeing a very different picture. Yes, so, I think in

0:32:05.640 --> 0:32:09.280
<v Speaker 1>terms of the credibility the very aggressive hawk stance that

0:32:09.720 --> 0:32:13.280
<v Speaker 1>they took yesterday in terms of raising rates by centifized

0:32:13.320 --> 0:32:16.320
<v Speaker 1>basis points by announcing that they're going to continue to

0:32:16.400 --> 0:32:20.040
<v Speaker 1>raise rates on a pretty aggressive path. They mentioned their

0:32:20.040 --> 0:32:23.880
<v Speaker 1>reference maybe two to five meetings UM and the reference

0:32:23.920 --> 0:32:25.960
<v Speaker 1>that they could go above the terminal raid. So they were,

0:32:26.360 --> 0:32:28.600
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the rhetoric and their decisions that they

0:32:28.640 --> 0:32:31.880
<v Speaker 1>made yesterday, relatively hawkish. However, I think it took a

0:32:31.920 --> 0:32:35.480
<v Speaker 1>lot of the mokel by surprise that the growth forecasts,

0:32:35.880 --> 0:32:38.440
<v Speaker 1>particularly for this year were much higher than think a

0:32:38.440 --> 0:32:42.800
<v Speaker 1>lot of people expected, and next year still very positive number.

0:32:43.440 --> 0:32:46.120
<v Speaker 1>I'll buy the much lower. In terms of GDP, I

0:32:46.160 --> 0:32:49.640
<v Speaker 1>think there's just so much uncertainty out there. I do

0:32:49.720 --> 0:32:51.080
<v Speaker 1>think there's a lag in terms of some of the

0:32:51.160 --> 0:32:54.440
<v Speaker 1>data coming through for the us n G d P numbers,

0:32:55.160 --> 0:32:57.400
<v Speaker 1>but the huge amount of uncertainty that we have yet

0:32:57.400 --> 0:32:59.760
<v Speaker 1>to see as we go into winter in terms of

0:32:59.760 --> 0:33:04.479
<v Speaker 1>the impact of energy prices UM that will have you know,

0:33:04.760 --> 0:33:08.720
<v Speaker 1>potentially a noted impact on GDP further and more that

0:33:08.800 --> 0:33:11.640
<v Speaker 1>has been prison at the moment. I think that's the difficulty.

0:33:11.840 --> 0:33:14.240
<v Speaker 1>So if you have a fan chart, I think you

0:33:14.320 --> 0:33:16.560
<v Speaker 1>see would be very very wide in terms of what

0:33:16.560 --> 0:33:20.960
<v Speaker 1>the ECB were projecting. But that middle number, I think, yeah,

0:33:21.680 --> 0:33:25.920
<v Speaker 1>aiming potentially, aiming maybe for a positive for a positive number,

0:33:25.960 --> 0:33:30.160
<v Speaker 1>but I think the risk of uncertainty is very very

0:33:30.240 --> 0:33:34.120
<v Speaker 1>high at the moment. Malie Watson of Black Rock Malin,

0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:37.720
<v Speaker 1>thank you, thank you. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

0:33:38.040 --> 0:33:41.400
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to

0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:45.560
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0:33:45.920 --> 0:33:49.920
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0:33:49.920 --> 0:33:54.520
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0:33:59.760 --> 0:34:03.120
<v Speaker 1>duck Um, and of course on the terminal, I'm Tom

0:34:03.200 --> 0:34:12.719
<v Speaker 1>keene In. This is Bloomer m