1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa A. Brawmowitz. Daily we bring 3 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:17,159 Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: international relations. To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, 5 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:26,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. 6 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: As we begin this ten days of Morning, in our 7 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: commitment to London here with Bloomberg Surveillance, it is good 8 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:37,520 Speaker 1: to speak to the editor in chief of Bloomberg, John 9 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: michels Waite, and what is important here is his commitment 10 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: to the literature with Adrian Wooldridge and the number of 11 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: books that they have put out over the years. I 12 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: want to go to a what if, John, because we 13 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: do not know the schedule forward. There is In the 14 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: first time I walked into it, I fell apart. Westminster Hall, 15 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: not Westminster Abbey, but this small all right next to it, 16 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 1: that that one person and a night one said we 17 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: need to save Westminster Hall. Let the commons burn. And 18 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: there has to be some heritage there, some symbolism as 19 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 1: you more in your Queen. I think Westminster Hall also 20 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 1: is the place as I remember it, and I may 21 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: have got this wrong that I think Charles the First 22 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: went too shortly before he was executed, and there have 23 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 1: been countless other people. So it is it is actually 24 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 1: very um related to the monarchy and to British history, 25 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: and so it's right at the middle things. I do think, 26 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 1: actually strangely in this case, I think there is something 27 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 1: very um your sense of history Tom is correct, is 28 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: that there is something at this precise moment that very 29 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,639 Speaker 1: sort of historical about this. And there's also a sense 30 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: of the monarchy from an earlier age if you look 31 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: at the inheritance from Charles's point of view, he is 32 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: coming into a kingdom that is in danger of breaking up. 33 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: He's coming into a kingdom that has got poor relations 34 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: with its ancestral um other half in in France and 35 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: Germany and things like that. And he's also got a 36 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 1: sort of brand new chancellor if he wanted under the 37 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,519 Speaker 1: old terms in his trust. So there is a there is, 38 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: it's a it's a not easy inheritance, and I think 39 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 1: in terms of history, from the monarchy's point of view, um, 40 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: this is an unusually difficult time, notwithstanding the huge amount 41 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 1: of coming together that is happening at the moment, John, 42 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: how do you expect that he is going to reposition 43 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 1: this monarchy in the world that you describe. I think 44 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 1: I think it's a mixture between trying to keep the 45 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: inherent strength that his mother had, which was the ability 46 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: to bring people together. You and I just talking before, 47 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 1: where you could become from wildly different backgrounds. In this country, 48 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: you could come from worldly different racist genders, everything, and 49 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 1: people saw this woman as a center of what this 50 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: country was about. And in terms of international influence she was. 51 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: She was about as strong as soft power can get. 52 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: Everybody you met around the world, doesn't matter. Even talking 53 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: to rulers in Asia last couple of weeks ago, they 54 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: are still fascinated by this woman who has, after all, 55 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: met everybody, or did meet everybody, and so as a 56 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: kind of weapon of self power, she was extraordinary. Now 57 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,839 Speaker 1: you have a new person coming in, and I think 58 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 1: for Charles the sort of challenges possibly to step back 59 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 1: a little bit in terms of his advocacy. He's no 60 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 1: longer the heir to the throne. He's actually the he 61 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 1: now is the person at the middle of the English constitution. 62 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: He selects who the Prime Minister can be that. That 63 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: means you have to perhaps come a slightly more objective figure. 64 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: But the second thing is, you know, how do you 65 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: update the monarchy quietly without losing that sense of power 66 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 1: when you talk about updating the monarchy? Or one thing 67 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: that Queen Elizabeth the Second did was it she became 68 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: an icon of culture. She became, as one historian said, 69 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: she is tower Bridge and a red double decker bus 70 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: and two legs, not to mention big an afternoon tea 71 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: village bets and sheep flecked hills. How much can the 72 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: new king, King Charles the Second really move at a 73 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: point checking Charles the Third come out and actually represents 74 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: something cultural? And if not, what relevancy will this monarchy have? 75 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: Quite interesting? The world in which just thinking whilst you 76 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 1: were talking, the world in which John and I grew 77 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 1: up obviously John massively younger than me, but but stamps. 78 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: The basic fact is the thing you were used to 79 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: seeing was the monarch's head on a stamp. Well, now 80 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 1: we don't see as many stamps. It's difficult to imprint 81 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: the monarch's head on an email, and issues like that. 82 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 1: I do think it is it's a question of rebranding. 83 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: When you looked at the jubilee celebrations um recently, in 84 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 1: which Charles is right in the middle. You know, there 85 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: were some things that worked, putting great big images on 86 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,119 Speaker 1: top of sucking palace. There were other things which maybe 87 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: just felt it was a bit like watching your your 88 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: kind of granddad tried to dance. Um that there was 89 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 1: there was a little is of that. So it's a 90 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 1: very difficult thing and at different times. The clever thing 91 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 1: about the Queen is she was quite good at letting 92 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 1: the junior royals go off and try things. That was 93 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,839 Speaker 1: a famous thing called It's a knockout, which is too 94 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: painful to go through, but where they are dressed in 95 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: medieval costumes and sort of through sponges at each other. 96 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 1: But that was conveniently. You know, you've got to explain this. 97 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 1: It was a kind of game show that had appeared 98 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: on television, which the more I think about it, the 99 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: less easier it is to defend to any audience that 100 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: stretches beyond this this particular kingdom. The royals a game 101 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: show they did once and it did not work out well, 102 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 1: so they perhaps that perhaps was something that went on 103 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: entirely work. They were like it was like a guest 104 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: version for charity um but it didn't entirely work and 105 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 1: I cannot remember the full details of so please don't 106 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: probably was not a success. A decent place to pause 107 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 1: and reflect just for another moment. There have been times 108 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: in the history of this royal family, even with Queen 109 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: Elizabeth on the throne, where they've had difficulty connecting with 110 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 1: the British people. Do you think Charles is going to 111 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: have that difficulty? And I think of a particular generation 112 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: very much enamored with the late Princess Diana, were uncomfortable 113 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: with Camilla taking the title of queen. I think that 114 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 1: my personal view is that that has moved on. I 115 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: remember that very well. But my my senses, that has 116 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 1: moved on, and Charles has sort of pushed himself, notwithstanding 117 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 1: certain Netflix series, has pushed himself back into the and 118 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,040 Speaker 1: several films has pushed himself back into the middle, and 119 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: he is that he is now a more respected figure 120 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: than he was then. But the interesting point is this 121 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: is that the thing that determines the monic is that 122 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: old sort Harold McMillan thing about events, dear boy events. 123 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 1: You know, it's what nobody could have guessed what was 124 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 1: going to happen to Elizabeth. Nobody can guess what's going 125 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: to happen to Charles. We know he faces some things 126 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: like the possibility of Scotland and Norman Ireland maybe leaving 127 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: his union. We're here for ten days. You ever restaurant 128 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:06,839 Speaker 1: place to hear the Bloomberg Country was banned from mentioning 129 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: the Crown on Netflix for a whole time. Henry quite 130 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 1: right now an important moment with Mohammad l Arion has 131 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: been such a friend of Bloomberg Surveillance over the years. 132 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 1: He is a president of Queen's College, Cambridge and they 133 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: are deeply affected by the death of their patron. To Arian, 134 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: the history of Queen's College is extraordinary. We don't need 135 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: to go over it now, but it is the back 136 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: and forth of Queen and king over centuries and centuries, 137 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: back to roughly fourteen five. We now have a new 138 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: transition as well. How do you perceive your patron in 139 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: the shift to King Charles? The third calm facts for 140 00:07:55,000 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: having me um. We are extremely sad at the passing 141 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: of her Majesty the Queen. I don't think I can 142 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: find words that express the size and scale of the 143 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: loss that's being felt by the United Kingdom, by people 144 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: around the world, and especially by our community because as 145 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: you say, she was our patroness. She visited the college, 146 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: she encouraged and inspired generations of students, of faculty and 147 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: of staff. So there's a real sense of loss right 148 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:34,559 Speaker 1: now in mourning and wanting to honor her incredible reign. Um, 149 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: we're not looking forward to tell you the truth as 150 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: to what next right now. This is a period of 151 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: deep reflection and gratitude for what her Majesty the Queen 152 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: did for Queen's College, Cambridge. One of the hallmarks of 153 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 1: her reign was the diversity of the United Kingdom. Cambridge 154 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: let on that as well, and some would say Muhammad 155 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: Aryan let on it as well. There's a shark the 156 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: Trust cabinet, the senior officials showing the diversity of the 157 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 1: United Kingdom from the University of Cambridge state the diversity 158 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: the Queen Elizabeth brought. She would speak to everyone and 159 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: he would and would encourage us to be more inclusive, 160 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: more diverse, and to continue in the daily fight of 161 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: reducing obstacle to access to a Cambridge education. It's all 162 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: about access and participation and her Majesty was a leader 163 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: in this regard. She believed in a very inclusive in community. 164 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: I cannot tell you that when she would come and 165 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: visit us, she would spend as much time with the 166 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: president as she would with the head gardener, with the 167 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,559 Speaker 1: head of our student body. She would go around and 168 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: talk to people in a very personal and engaging fashion, 169 00:09:54,280 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 1: and she was an inspiration in terms of inclusion and diversity. Mohammed. 170 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: The last time she visited you was back in as 171 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 1: recently as can you share with us just a little 172 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: something from that, how special that visit was for you 173 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: in the college, there was incredibly special, John Um, not 174 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 1: only because we were hosting her Majesty for lunch, but 175 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:24,559 Speaker 1: we invited our community to come out and the joy 176 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: with which they welcomed her to Queen's and the interaction 177 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 1: with her Um. There are pictures on our website of 178 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 1: her meeting with the students, meeting with the start um, 179 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 1: spending time and caring, and then it was a wonderful 180 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 1: lunch in which we thanked her for her very strong 181 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: support of our college. You know, she she followed the 182 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 1: Queen Mother who was our patron as before her UM, 183 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: and it's been a constant for us, just like it 184 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 1: has been a constant for the whole nation. Mohammed. This 185 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: has been one of the key points that keep coming 186 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: back to, that she was the embodiment of a spirit 187 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: of the United Kingdom that will be hard to replace, 188 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: and that she really created the modern version of a monarchy. 189 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: Can you give us a sense, a more tangible sense 190 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,079 Speaker 1: of why it is, especially for people outside of the 191 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 1: United Kingdom, that she acted in this role even though 192 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: she is a figurehead right, that she is a political 193 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: by definition, and that she is looking to remain a 194 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 1: sort of a public relations persona rather than a leader 195 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: like the Parliament. It was Lisa her inspiration. She has 196 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: inspired so many in the United Kingdom and around the world, 197 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: and I would argue she will continue to long inspire 198 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:50,359 Speaker 1: people around the world. So where did that inspiration come from? 199 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: I think from free things. One her empathy. She she 200 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: was very empathetic, she listened to people. Second, her dedication. 201 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: She said it on day one that she would be 202 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: dedicated to serve the nation and she continued serving the 203 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: nation for over seven decades as the monarch. And third 204 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: was her responsiveness. So when you put these things together, 205 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 1: it sums up in instruational leadership that overcomes all sorts 206 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: of divisions within society, and that was flexible enough to 207 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: take the United Kingdom through massive changes. If you look at, Wow, 208 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,359 Speaker 1: how different the United Kingdom of today is compared to 209 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,079 Speaker 1: the one of seventy years ago when she became queen, 210 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: and she she was able to navigate all that inspiring 211 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: us inspire a whole nation throughout that whole period, Mohammed. 212 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: Given how much things have changed, as you talk about, 213 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 1: given Brexit, given the fact that the United Kingdom has 214 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: shrunk in its scope with relation to some of these 215 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: trade partnerships or at least nomenclature, it is the new 216 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 1: vision going forward? Does it adhere back to that one? 217 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: Or is this truly a marking of a new regime. 218 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 1: You know, there are many challenges facing the United Kingdom, 219 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: and that's true for the new Prime Minister who recognized 220 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,199 Speaker 1: that on day one. But I think Lisa, right now, 221 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: it's about her majesty, Queen Elizabeth. The second, it's about 222 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: morning her death. It's about honoring her accomplishment and honoring 223 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 1: her wain Um. There will come the day when we 224 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: will sit down and talk about all the challenges ahead, 225 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: but I think this is a really important moment in 226 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: history because she has played such an important role, not 227 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: just in this country but around the world. Mohammed, thank 228 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 1: you for marking this moment in history well us. We 229 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: appreciate it and I think we all agree with certainly 230 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: not the day to discuss markets in the economy with you. Mohammed, 231 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: Thank you very much for giving us your time this morning. Mohamed. 232 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 1: Down are in that of Queen's College, Cambridge. We touched 233 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: on another of the Queen's efforts, which is Chatham House. 234 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 1: You've heard that name in America less familiar, but in 235 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: London dominant is one of the great think tanks and 236 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 1: places of perspective for the United Kingdom. Sir Robant Nibla 237 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 1: joins us right now, Director of Chatham House, and I 238 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: thought on your website the commitment of the Queen, particularly 239 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: Robin to the academics that you did in two thousand 240 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: and fourteen, her leadership to jump start that project give 241 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: us a window into two thousand and fourteen and what 242 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: the Queen did for Chatham House. Tom happy to um, 243 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: I'm now distinguished fellow Chatham House. We have a new 244 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: director as of a month ago Roman Matics, but I 245 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: had the pleasure of it was fine. I've had a 246 00:14:55,960 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: pleasure of hosting Uh Her Majesty twice in recent years, 247 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: most of the Chata Mouse Prize when she gave it 248 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 1: to David attenburghen was when we launched the Queen Elizabeth 249 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: Academy for International Affairs. And I think one of the 250 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: big challenges for institutions in London has been able to 251 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: make sure that you're still well connected to young people 252 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: around the world, engaging them in what London has to offer, 253 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: what Britain has to offer as a place of independent thinking, 254 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: which is what Chatham House about is as well. And 255 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: Her Majesty gave her name to the creation of a 256 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: new academy, came met with the first cohort of Academy 257 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: fellows from all over the world UM, and I think 258 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: what we wanted to do by having this UM Academy 259 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: named in her honor was captured. The fact you're not 260 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: gonna have a patron of institution for seventy years very 261 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 1: often and it was absolutely remarkable, wonderful to be able 262 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: to have to connect it that way, but also to 263 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: be able to track some of the brightest, most driven 264 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: change makers around the world come and spend some time. 265 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: She her example is a draw. It was the most 266 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: important part of written soft power in her example was 267 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 1: the Commonwealth. There was a Commonwealth of the early fifties 268 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: and the tumult of the sixties and seventies. What does 269 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 1: Charles the Third's Commonwealth look like? It's going to be 270 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: very difficult, um, for a number of reasons. In a way, 271 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: it was held together by respect for Her Majesty for 272 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 1: the Queen Um as well as by that common sense 273 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 1: of heritage of having formed part of the British Empire. 274 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: But being forming part of the British Empire even as 275 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: independent nations is now something that receives a lot more 276 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: scrutiny than it did in the past. And so what 277 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 1: we're going to find, I think in the coming years 278 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: UM is potentially Charles having to enable the Commonwealth to 279 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: redefine its purpose amongst those nations without the glue of 280 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: Her Majesty the Queen there to hold it together. We've 281 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: already had some moves away from having the Sovereign Her 282 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: Majesty as the head of state from one Commonwealth member 283 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 1: by betas a year ago, and there's a worry that 284 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 1: the whole review of the role of empire, slavery and 285 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 1: so on will start to come back in and put 286 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: the UK in a much more difficult position in the future. Robin, 287 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 1: we really do mark the end of an era exactly 288 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 1: as you say, not only a unifying force, but a 289 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:29,400 Speaker 1: redefinition of globalization, a redefinition of the United Kingdom and 290 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: the broader empire that it used to have. Right, all 291 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 1: of these redefining aspects of the new moment, What will 292 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: be the new definition of the next ten years? How 293 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 1: will King Charles the third come out and shape a 294 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: new vision in the world as you see it. Look, 295 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: the challenge that any monarchers here is that they can't 296 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: establish a vision. They can't declare a vision to the 297 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: rest of the nation. In our constitutional monarchy, they really 298 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: are the holders of continuity, but then not the agents 299 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 1: of political change in politics, so in a way it 300 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 1: will be up to this trust of future prime ministers 301 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: to establish the vision of the country. What he has 302 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: to communicate is again the linkage to the continuity. Part 303 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: of I'd say Britain's soft power has been the fact 304 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 1: that it has had such stable politics for so long 305 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 1: and However, quickly the government's change of the prime ministers change. 306 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: The fact that the head of state has continuity in 307 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: the family is part of its power. So what the 308 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 1: monarchy does is give space to governments to go through 309 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,479 Speaker 1: profound change without a sense that the whole nation has 310 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 1: been called into question. So I think in a way 311 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: Prince Charles, who has leant forward quite a bit as 312 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: a Prince of Wales on climate change, on architecture, biodiversity, 313 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 1: on architecture exactly, is now going to step back and 314 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 1: have to to become the cipher that the queen was 315 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 1: for what other people believe the nation is. It's gonna 316 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,880 Speaker 1: be a really delicate change within some real estate investors 317 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,479 Speaker 1: that are happy with this in London. That my in 318 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 1: my backup, I think they'll be happy for that reason. 319 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: He won't be able to weigh in the way he 320 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 1: did before important of the New Yorker. I read the 321 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 1: New Yorker effort here of the last twenty four hours 322 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: and around Mead Rebecca media it was very good about 323 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: this psychological shift that any monarch has to make. Chian 324 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 1: He's Charles and then he's King. Third, was it Chelsea Barracks? 325 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: Was it Chausy Barracks all those years ago. Ya kataris 326 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 1: Royal to royal, they were able to have a different 327 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 1: type of conversation. I think I'm not getting us off 328 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: into trouble. Was your pet projects? I learned the backstory 329 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: when used to live in Chausea. He used to walk 330 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: past there and it was a big, big conversation at 331 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: the time. Do my do my PhD at Oxford? As 332 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: I was writing it, A buildings being built in front 333 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: in mordel In College and done in all of the 334 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 1: old style of modeling college but being built in nineteen 335 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 1: was nineteen three or something. And at one point I 336 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: watched the building go up. Suddy saw this person walking 337 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: here us the top with the gaggle of people and 338 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 1: it was Prince Charles being shown around. And you know, 339 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,880 Speaker 1: I didn't have a mobile in those days, but it 340 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: was the old building in the keeping and I have 341 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: to say it worked beautifully. So we see the king 342 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: doing that. Who knows? So Robin Nibblett, thank you, Thank 343 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: you so much, distinguished fellow at Chatham House. I'm happy 344 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 1: to say that John gets now. Sevince Cable, the former 345 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 1: MP and visiting professor at the London School of Economics 346 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: and Political Science, s Vince, fantastic to have you with us, 347 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: Thanks for being with us. Inevitably we'll talk about change 348 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 1: and what will change with a new monarch on the throne. 349 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 1: What will change for you, sir well, I was privileged 350 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,719 Speaker 1: as a private councilor of cabinet minister to dealt with 351 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: her Majesty, and you know, and I understand, as I 352 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: have seen out close, the reasons why the country has 353 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: such respect and affection for her um and so it 354 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: is a I mean, this moment is on the one hand, 355 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,719 Speaker 1: very predicted. I mean, we all knew this was going 356 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: to happen, but at the same time momentous. And you 357 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 1: have a whole generation of people, you know, seventy or under, 358 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 1: you've lived your whole life in the Elizabethan age. I 359 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 1: think for a politician, I'm an hour retired politician, I 360 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 1: think the significance was that although we had, you know, 361 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 1: a great change, turbulence, um, big secular changes over time, 362 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: you know, the monarchy and the queen was a kind 363 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 1: of bedrock of continuity and stability throughout that and remains 364 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 1: one of the sort of underlying strengths of the country 365 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: and it rests upon the fact that it is a 366 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: constitutional monarchy. It doesn't have a political role, and it 367 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: will be very important that the new king, you know, 368 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 1: is seen by the world in the country as a 369 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: totally non political figure. Surveiance. I think it's so important 370 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 1: to speak to you you here. I'd love to do a 371 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: two hour conversation with your Now, if you look at 372 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: your party history as a kid, when you were at 373 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: Cambridge and I'm from their Glasgow and such, and then 374 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 1: you find that you were the chief economist for Royal 375 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: Dutch Shell for a while as well, you have a 376 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: backdrop here of this emergency moment for your United Kingdom. 377 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 1: How does Charles the third provide support to Prime Minister 378 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 1: trust Well, I think given the way in which the 379 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 1: monarchy works, and I think we all wanted to continue 380 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: to work, and I think there are very few Republicans 381 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: in Britain. Um, it is by respecting this boundary between 382 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 1: politics and the head of state role, and um, I 383 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,760 Speaker 1: mean King Charles. It's an enormously difficult job. I mean 384 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 1: he's been auditioning for this for fifty years. He could 385 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,400 Speaker 1: have stepped into the monarch role at any time and 386 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 1: he it's it's required extraordinary self discipline from him um 387 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 1: and has been a very very difficult role. And he's now, 388 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: as you say, seventy three and he's inheriting this responsibility. 389 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 1: I think one of the things he will be very 390 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 1: mindful of bearing in mind, you know, the enormous respect 391 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 1: for his mother, who was scrupulously non political through the 392 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 1: whole of her reign. I mean, he has at times, 393 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: you know, straight into the political world, most recently over Rwanda, 394 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 1: and he will, I think, in order to maintain the 395 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 1: solidity of the monarchy, be very very careful not to 396 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: go into the um. I have no idea. I mean 397 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,439 Speaker 1: I I met him a few times, and I like 398 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 1: what he did, and he was genuinely socially concerned individual. 399 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: I absolutely no idea about his political thing. I was 400 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 1: trying to cause some trouble. I think it's such a 401 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: delicate moment because supported he didn't tell me, because we've 402 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 1: been talking all morning about Dove telling uh the death 403 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,959 Speaker 1: of a monarch who really represented the United Kingdom for 404 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 1: so many years and grew up through steamboats. Until there's this, 405 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: you know, a smartphone, and we are here on the 406 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 1: preciface of a massive fiscal package without the unity required 407 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 1: to give confidence about how it will be executed, about 408 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: how effectively it will be managed with respect to the 409 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 1: fiscal profile of this nation. How are you watching this 410 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,639 Speaker 1: as a former member of Parliament, the deliberations over the 411 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 1: energy help that liszt Trusts has proposed to households. I'm 412 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:38,400 Speaker 1: surprised that the linkage that's been made with this big 413 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,719 Speaker 1: economic moment. I mean they are I think they are 414 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:45,880 Speaker 1: wholly separate and I I mean certainly the new king 415 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 1: will want to have absolutely nothing to do with the 416 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 1: controversies around the fiscal package, and I shouldn't. I mean 417 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 1: his role list to revive I mean the phrase that 418 00:24:56,400 --> 00:25:01,479 Speaker 1: you've been using common continuity and stability amongst political and 419 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,359 Speaker 1: economic upheaval. That's his job. It's not to take up 420 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:08,360 Speaker 1: a position on these economic decisions. I mean that will 421 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: happen anyway. The big change and the Treasury, of course, 422 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 1: has been the loss of the sacking of the Permanent Secretary. 423 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 1: I mean that is the big event from the economic 424 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 1: policy point of view. But the planning of the details 425 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 1: of the fiscal package will proceed, and although there may 426 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 1: be a slight hiatus in the announcements. Nothing is going 427 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 1: to happen to disturb the development of the policy. Well, 428 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: things will pause events which are soon from the Bank 429 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: of England. The NPC announcement has been rescheduled to twenty September. 430 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,400 Speaker 1: To the September so I understand that's a one week 431 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:44,959 Speaker 1: delay for the Bank of Englan at least. I think 432 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 1: that was the first thing you asked this morning. Go 433 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 1: for me when we landed, are we still going to 434 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: get a bank having the decision next week? And I said, 435 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,199 Speaker 1: I don't know, we'll see, And here we are. It 436 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: is going to be delayed by one week. Yeah, and 437 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,400 Speaker 1: whether this actually gives them a little bit more certainty 438 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 1: might be interesting to see as well, whether we get 439 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 1: more fiscal proposals were concretely from both the European Union 440 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: as well as from list Trust's team over in Parliament. 441 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 1: Thomas Sevince set things will continue, but for now they pause, 442 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 1: and we're saying that with the Bank of Englands wound 443 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 1: and we'll see that with the whole host of events 444 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 1: to a scheduled to take place over the next ten dice. 445 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 1: As I mentioned, my template for this in a very 446 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 1: different moment was nie I had the clearest memories of 447 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: how America paused for the funeral of President Kennedy. Why 448 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 1: is as different as we saw with the Premier League 449 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 1: twenty minutes ago. Now with the Bank of England, Who's 450 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:36,680 Speaker 1: gonna who's gonna push against those institutions? Vince, we say 451 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 1: thank you, thank you very much. We appreciate your time set. 452 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: She has steeped in theory. Marilyn Watson joins us out 453 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,880 Speaker 1: ahead of global fundamental fixed income strategy at black Rock Maryland. 454 00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 1: Not to make the punt of the moment, but which 455 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 1: act do I hide under right now? I mean within 456 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,920 Speaker 1: a bond portfolio is a simple solution to shorten you duration. 457 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 1: So I think as I say, there are a lot 458 00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 1: of moving parts at the moment, and particularly and say 459 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 1: we have the ECB, but the said coming up in 460 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 1: a couple of times. Obviously they're backfinant of duty slightly 461 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: out their data as well. But we are as seeing 462 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: a lot of volatility in the markets at the moment. 463 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 1: And I think you've hit the nail on the head 464 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: there in terms of where do you find some yields, 465 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: Where do you find maybe a little bit of safety 466 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 1: in the market. I certainly think now there's shifts that 467 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 1: we've seen in terms of yield, in terms of spread, 468 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 1: we do see a lot more attractive area in the market, 469 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,680 Speaker 1: whether it's in US duration UM you know, we've seen 470 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 1: obviously rates there to get the front end um, you know, 471 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,280 Speaker 1: shift significantly, and I do think if you're looking sort 472 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 1: of at the front end in terms of quality perry, 473 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 1: then now I do think there are some very attractive 474 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,440 Speaker 1: areas were to invest in fix income. But we are 475 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 1: expecting to see this continued volatility going forward over the 476 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,679 Speaker 1: next few months, as we have inflation still incredibly in 477 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,879 Speaker 1: the US, in the U Zone an elsewhere, and a 478 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: lot of decisions to be made on a non linear 479 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 1: basis the path from under two percent and a ten 480 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 1: year yield in March and up we go. If we 481 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 1: do break out where many expect to go three and 482 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 1: a half three point six, five, three point nine ten 483 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 1: year yield, how does that change your world? So it 484 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: doesn't change it that significantly in the fact that I 485 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:42,000 Speaker 1: think we, among with many other investors, are still relatively 486 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: cautious around the rate path going paws in terms of 487 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 1: where the peak might be in terms of rates we 488 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 1: expected to peak the term or right to be maybe 489 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 1: around just under four percent. But I think looking at 490 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 1: the path now, if you if you do see a 491 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 1: little bit of a spread there in terms of where 492 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 1: they not, it might be why the top of the 493 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 1: you might be I think, you know, we're expecting that, 494 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 1: we're expecting volatility. I think a lot of the investors 495 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 1: are respecting the same as well. We still still still 496 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: have a lot of money invested um, you know, in 497 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 1: very safe assets. We have money so on the sidelines 498 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: in terms of cash, we do expect to see a 499 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 1: lot more supply going forward. We see expects a lot 500 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 1: of opportunities actually, So I think, you know, looking at 501 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 1: the market at the moment, as we do have quoditive 502 00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 1: tightening going on, as the you know, the third is 503 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 1: reducing its balance sheet, as rates continue to rise in 504 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 1: the US and elsewhere, we can actually use this volatility 505 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 1: to take advantage of evaluations where we see them. So 506 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 1: let's talk about some of the guides that you use 507 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 1: Maryland when you're looking for opportunities at a time when 508 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 1: we have inflation that may just may come down to 509 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 1: eight point one percent in the euroregion or that's the 510 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 1: expectation on average, and then go down to two point 511 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 1: eight percent several years from now. This is the baseline 512 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 1: and some would say even optimistic projection from the ECB. 513 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 1: We've got the same kind of talk from the Federal Reserve. 514 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 1: How do you factor inflation into your forecast? Is that 515 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 1: the reason why your underweight duration? Or is the fiscal 516 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 1: response that really has your attention? Um? So, it's both, 517 00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 1: and I think the fiscal packages that you mentioned in 518 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 1: the fiscal response are going to play into inflation going 519 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 1: forward as well, and potentially they might make the job 520 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: of central banks that a little bit harder if we 521 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 1: do have we have these very sizeable packages that we're 522 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,480 Speaker 1: seeing coming through from the UK, the US, and you 523 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 1: know in the Eurozone as well. Inflation does play obviously 524 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 1: a very key role in terms of um you know, 525 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 1: central bank munchro policy, but also obviously the yields of 526 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 1: bonds going forward, and it is something that we do 527 00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: pay very keen attention to here in the US. Obviously, 528 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: next week we have some very significant data coming out 529 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 1: in terms of inflation cp I, p p I, and 530 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 1: the Federal obviously be paying very close attention to those 531 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 1: as it then goes into the following week. It's Muntro 532 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 1: policy stance announcement to the FETAM announced that they are 533 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 1: able to continue to be very aggressive in terms of 534 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: trying to get inflation back down towards the two percent target. 535 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 1: And so inflation does play a very few role. And 536 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 1: I think at the moment in terms of central banks 537 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 1: that are also very concerned about credibility and the fact 538 00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,360 Speaker 1: that you know investors, they don't want investors to be 539 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 1: anchored in high inflation expectations. It's very important for them, 540 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,120 Speaker 1: for investors and for the market to see inflation coming 541 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: down and to view the credibility of central banks in 542 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 1: bringing that inflation right down um. And I think that 543 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:36,600 Speaker 1: is absolutely critical Maryland. When you talk about the idea 544 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,479 Speaker 1: of credibility, we talk about the idea that the ECB 545 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,960 Speaker 1: is not projecting a recession even as they get inflation 546 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 1: down at a time when even the CEO of Deutsche 547 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 1: Bank is saying that a recession is all but inevitable 548 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 1: in Europe's biggest economy. How what does that do for 549 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 1: their credibility that we are not hearing the recession calls 550 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 1: from the central bank to a Wall street, to a 551 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,080 Speaker 1: city in and in to the rest of Europe. That 552 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: seeing a very different picture. Yes, so, I think in 553 00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 1: terms of the credibility the very aggressive hawk stance that 554 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 1: they took yesterday in terms of raising rates by centifized 555 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 1: basis points by announcing that they're going to continue to 556 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 1: raise rates on a pretty aggressive path. They mentioned their 557 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 1: reference maybe two to five meetings UM and the reference 558 00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 1: that they could go above the terminal raid. So they were, 559 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 1: in terms of the rhetoric and their decisions that they 560 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 1: made yesterday, relatively hawkish. However, I think it took a 561 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 1: lot of the mokel by surprise that the growth forecasts, 562 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 1: particularly for this year were much higher than think a 563 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 1: lot of people expected, and next year still very positive number. 564 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,120 Speaker 1: I'll buy the much lower. In terms of GDP, I 565 00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 1: think there's just so much uncertainty out there. I do 566 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,080 Speaker 1: think there's a lag in terms of some of the 567 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 1: data coming through for the us n G d P numbers, 568 00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 1: but the huge amount of uncertainty that we have yet 569 00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 1: to see as we go into winter in terms of 570 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:04,479 Speaker 1: the impact of energy prices UM that will have you know, 571 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 1: potentially a noted impact on GDP further and more that 572 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,640 Speaker 1: has been prison at the moment. I think that's the difficulty. 573 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: So if you have a fan chart, I think you 574 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 1: see would be very very wide in terms of what 575 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:20,960 Speaker 1: the ECB were projecting. But that middle number, I think, yeah, 576 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:25,920 Speaker 1: aiming potentially, aiming maybe for a positive for a positive number, 577 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:30,160 Speaker 1: but I think the risk of uncertainty is very very 578 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 1: high at the moment. Malie Watson of Black Rock Malin, 579 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 1: thank you, thank you. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 580 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to 581 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 1: ten am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg Radio and I'm Bloomberg Television 582 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 1: each day from six to nine am for insight from 583 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And 584 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg, 585 00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 1: duck Um, and of course on the terminal, I'm Tom 586 00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:12,719 Speaker 1: keene In. This is Bloomer m