Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailey. We bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Kenna Leon joins
Speaker 1: us some c fr as at a first look at
Speaker 1: the data as it comes out. Ken, I want to
Speaker 1: go immediately to use of cash and that they did
Speaker 1: a four point three billion share repurchase coming out of
Speaker 1: this pandemic. What did these banks and what does Mr
Speaker 1: Diamond do with the reality of all that cash? So
Speaker 1: it's a return of capital, um Shaney. Diamond has said
Speaker 1: that we're over capitalized the fat last months. By July
Speaker 1: they'll be able to increase their dividend and also buy backs.
Speaker 1: That would be a big change since the last twelve months. Um.
Speaker 1: So the return of capital is a big theme for
Speaker 1: being an investor in banks. Ken. Right now, the headline
Speaker 1: coming from the CEO of Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan,
Speaker 1: loan demand remains challenged. That's the issue right now. Ken,
Speaker 1: Do you see that persisting through the early part of
Speaker 1: this year into the middle um. It's incredibly important because
Speaker 1: loan volumes are and loan balances both for consumer and
Speaker 1: for commercial, UH is going to drive the delta for
Speaker 1: performance for the bank. We've already almost maxed out in
Speaker 1: terms of the investment bank. For JP Morgan, about fifty
Speaker 1: of revenue comes from the investment bank over the last
Speaker 1: five years. Though JP Morgan is the only bank that
Speaker 1: has positive net interest income compared to the other large banks.
Speaker 1: That's an incredible mobile fact that in a low rate
Speaker 1: environment we also first need as the loan activity. So
Speaker 1: I don't think UH JP Morrigan on the earning school
Speaker 1: really wants to talk about net interest income given that
Speaker 1: it's such a difficult challenge, and that was the time
Speaker 1: to talk about the investment bank just for a moment.
Speaker 1: Can another headline crossing the investment banking revenue coming in
Speaker 1: at two point eight five billion dollars the estimate two
Speaker 1: point four six billion at least have just going through
Speaker 1: the training numbers right now. Fixed sales and trading revenue
Speaker 1: five point seven six billion, the estimate five point zero
Speaker 1: two billion. Upside surprise that likewise on equity sales and
Speaker 1: trade in revenue to three point two nine billion the
Speaker 1: estimate two point three two billion. I think it's fair
Speaker 1: to say the first quarter was pretty decent for JP Morgan, Lisa,
Speaker 1: they crushed it, which is the reason why it's surprising
Speaker 1: the shares are lower after beating expectations. Just to give
Speaker 1: you a sense of how much they beat fixed income
Speaker 1: trading up fifteen percent, which beat intimate stock trading up
Speaker 1: forty seven percent. Ken, it is not about this, As
Speaker 1: you said, this is not the area that people want
Speaker 1: to see the growth in because this is fickle and
Speaker 1: frankly we have It's already seen trading volumes come down dramatically.
Speaker 1: We've seen deal volume up. People were expecting that, and yes,
Speaker 1: JP Morgan crushed that. What are people actually looking at
Speaker 1: that you sending shares lower? Is it the fact that
Speaker 1: deposits rose this and that loan growth was a easily
Speaker 1: one percent On this backdrop, I think it really relates
Speaker 1: to growth and return of capital um. JP Morgan has
Speaker 1: done incredibly well. Uh. They tend to outperform the other
Speaker 1: large banks, and I think when you look ahead to
Speaker 1: the rest of the year, for the analysts, the concern
Speaker 1: always is the first quarter is typically the strongest quarter
Speaker 1: um and seasonally it begins to ease. So I mean
Speaker 1: to put these kind of numbers together for the next
Speaker 1: quarter and the quarter after that are going to be challenging.
Speaker 1: And that's why I think they're going to talk about
Speaker 1: return of capital because investors out there want total return.
Speaker 1: I want to go there can, but I think so
Speaker 1: important is a headline buried in here. We're gonna put
Speaker 1: these headlines up, folks, because JP Morgan does a great
Speaker 1: job of laying out the overall bank and then these categories.
Speaker 1: Is well, kenn Leon, you know this is all about technology,
Speaker 1: and buried in the stream of headlines is mobile customers
Speaker 1: up nine percent? I'm taking that almost as a revenue proxy.
Speaker 1: Can you move that over to a bank that's going
Speaker 1: to deliver high single digit revenue? Stream out thirty six
Speaker 1: or dare I say out sixty months? You know some
Speaker 1: mobile applications and we've had tom through the years the
Speaker 1: discussion of you know, bricks and motor and branches, but
Speaker 1: it's almost like a home depot where it's omni channel
Speaker 1: shopping your ability to do banking, and most consumers are
Speaker 1: now able to do it through their mobile phone um.
Speaker 1: But additionally, a lot of banking gets done coming into
Speaker 1: the branch, particularly for small business owners. And they're also
Speaker 1: increasing the number of their financial centers and branches UH
Speaker 1: in markets that they really don't have a present. That's
Speaker 1: why I think Army channel gives them that capability. As
Speaker 1: you've noted with technology Ken, fantastic to catch up with
Speaker 1: you as always always going to see you too, Kelly
Speaker 1: on there of CFR A the global director of Equity Research.
Speaker 1: If we've got the right guess to talk to Joannifer
Speaker 1: all right now about summoning all this together. Jeff, you
Speaker 1: joined us now being y Melon senior strategist. Jeff, can
Speaker 1: we just go back to that final point that we
Speaker 1: made with Allison there the fiscal support has disrupted what
Speaker 1: is happening with traditional lenders here in America? How do
Speaker 1: you read that, Jeff? Well, you can read that in
Speaker 1: two ways. One is the government now being the primary
Speaker 1: source some of them demand, you know, the primary engine
Speaker 1: of an economy. If that's so they can raise money
Speaker 1: through a non loan channels, are you they're going to
Speaker 1: access are funding directly from investors and from a capsule market.
Speaker 1: So but secondly, there is a fear of a displacement effect,
Speaker 1: right and the fact that fistal has to do the work.
Speaker 1: It means there is no private sector loan demand or
Speaker 1: very limited private sector loan demand right now, so banks
Speaker 1: are stuck in that sense. So ultimately it's a chicken
Speaker 1: and egg story. The hope is fistal kickstarts the economy,
Speaker 1: generates the private sector demand, and then banks can be
Speaker 1: happy again, which steeper your curves of course, Jeff, can
Speaker 1: we get inflation true inflation if banks are not increasing
Speaker 1: their lending again, it goes down to the chicken and
Speaker 1: x Lroy. Banks will only believe or only start to
Speaker 1: lend when they believe there is sustainable inflation driven by demand.
Speaker 1: So that's what central banks have been saying, Where is
Speaker 1: the demand going to come from? And we want to
Speaker 1: see inflatent on a sustained basis right now. They don't
Speaker 1: even know how much economic scarring it is going to be.
Speaker 1: I Left talked about a five year window. It could
Speaker 1: take that lodge if that's pretty much jump in it um.
Speaker 1: The absence of lending is not because there is an
Speaker 1: absence of demand. There's an absence of demand for loans
Speaker 1: because there is an abundance of cash. The retail sales
Speaker 1: on Thursday term are going to be absolutely stellar because
Speaker 1: people are spending. They're just not going to the banks
Speaker 1: for that money. That's the story. I would separate John
Speaker 1: the traditional banks from the big international banks, and Jeff,
Speaker 1: you this is an unfair question to you, but I'm
Speaker 1: going to ask it anyways. With your years of work
Speaker 1: in London, is the next frontier for our successful American
Speaker 1: banks to take on Europe into game market share on
Speaker 1: the European continent. I'm not sure that's a fair fight,
Speaker 1: to be honest, and because on what Europe is pushing for,
Speaker 1: it's actually banking union. US has a banking union, it
Speaker 1: was formed them that way to Europe, but before Europe
Speaker 1: can actually have a full fledge banking union, I actually
Speaker 1: don't think that is competition between equals. But if you
Speaker 1: can actually see lenders from the emerging markets from Asia
Speaker 1: start to scrawl overseas that there haven't been that successful
Speaker 1: so far but for the US banks, so they should
Speaker 1: actually probably watch their rare, you know, rather than just
Speaker 1: focus across the Atlantic. Jeff, let's get a market call.
Speaker 1: What do you like right now? So right now, I
Speaker 1: think markets are really looking for risk again, looking to
Speaker 1: carry trade right, and Europe really is the one in
Speaker 1: focus on. We're seeing euro dollar push up against one
Speaker 1: twenty again the view that Europe is no longer a
Speaker 1: problematic case in terms of recovery. It's only question of delay.
Speaker 1: They will get back to need to and they will
Speaker 1: hit the rates of the UK and US will get
Speaker 1: and then with the fiscal you will see European reflation.
Speaker 1: What you funded out of I like to find it
Speaker 1: out of Swiss frank maybe some highly valuedation currencies like
Speaker 1: the Taiwan dollar. So these carry trades taking out the
Speaker 1: US dollar angle are the ones I'm looking for. So
Speaker 1: the Euro is no longer the funding currency Jeff. In
Speaker 1: this environment, the Euro has now seen probably the reflation currency,
Speaker 1: and also just taking a step beyond that. European assets
Speaker 1: and if markets are looking for value, there is a
Speaker 1: sensor that Europe is where you want to go in
Speaker 1: terms of equities. But again that margin expansion, that investment
Speaker 1: lift has to come from mg EU, has to come
Speaker 1: from governments, and the last fourt year hours we finally
Speaker 1: seeing the European Union move on that front. They've announced
Speaker 1: the parameters and announce the issue in summers. Hopefully the
Speaker 1: money starts to flow soon. This idea of Europe being
Speaker 1: the reflation trade is born out Vice Stephen major Over
Speaker 1: at HSBC who says that even FED tapering is already
Speaker 1: priced in to where we are in rate and the dollar.
Speaker 1: Would you agree, um, so a lot of I would
Speaker 1: say good news is in the dollar right now, and
Speaker 1: that of course relates to the US monitory policy path.
Speaker 1: If we look at our own custodial eye flow data,
Speaker 1: for example, over the past few weeks, actually investors are
Speaker 1: buying back and the treasuries, so it's a sign that
Speaker 1: the selling treasuries create a price in a stronger US
Speaker 1: covery that is in the price right now. So what
Speaker 1: I'm watching for is where is the money going in
Speaker 1: terms of other markets? Is it going more to Europe?
Speaker 1: Is against emerging markets? We want to see a risk
Speaker 1: on environment, but clients are going to be very selected
Speaker 1: about where they want to be risk on, and Europe
Speaker 1: looks a good candidate right now. Jeff, this is a
Speaker 1: question I normally wouldn't ask, but I think it works today.
Speaker 1: What is your parsing of the inflation dynamic? The separation
Speaker 1: of services and goods the industry. The industry parsing in
Speaker 1: the forty seven different measurements of inflation that we have
Speaker 1: right so you really need to separate the distribution of
Speaker 1: that in terms of if there is good manufacturing demand
Speaker 1: right now, and we've been seeing that for several quarters now,
Speaker 1: at least since the last the end of Q three
Speaker 1: two thousand and twenty, that will continue to drive prices.
Speaker 1: Now on the consumer side, I think what the FED
Speaker 1: and other policymakers, they want to get past this hump.
Speaker 1: They want to get past this base effect driven inflation,
Speaker 1: and then they will start to see whether it's sustainable.
Speaker 1: Aren't that The second point, which is crucial. We talk
Speaker 1: about cash, We talk about consumers and house is having
Speaker 1: a lot of money. Who has it in the UK
Speaker 1: as well? It's concentrated and let's just say the upper
Speaker 1: death stiles of the population. So you want to identify
Speaker 1: baskets where perhaps you see greater spending amongst the lower desciles.
Speaker 1: If that, if those items are not being bored so
Speaker 1: low value bad staples for example, then you're just seeing
Speaker 1: inflation driven by the rich, driven by the wealthy spending.
Speaker 1: It's not trickling down there's a problem there as well.
Speaker 1: Jeff going to catch you up, always going to hear
Speaker 1: from you. Make Jeff you there out of London b
Speaker 1: and wa Melon Sadia strategist an historic move again in
Speaker 1: this original economy seven Vigor has seen this before. Argus
Speaker 1: Research or Director of Financial Institution, Stephen, thanks for joining
Speaker 1: us today. Who will provide the use of cash pressure
Speaker 1: if if you're at a given bank and John's focused
Speaker 1: on Goldman Sachs, which part of the process says, wait
Speaker 1: a minute about dividends, wait a minute about share buy backs,
Speaker 1: and wait a minute with what are we gonna do
Speaker 1: with the cash? Well, it's always so it's a good
Speaker 1: problem to have, right. I think the SEACAR results mid
Speaker 1: year are gonna you know, answer a lot of those questions.
Speaker 1: But banks are you know, certainly flushed with cash right now.
Speaker 1: They've had moretoriums on on dividends and and shared buy
Speaker 1: backs for you know, for over a year now. Uh,
Speaker 1: And I think we're gonna have you know, pretty strong
Speaker 1: shareholder return figures come out with CCAR results mid year. Stephen,
Speaker 1: do you prefer Goldman Sacks Morgans only the broker focused banks,
Speaker 1: the ones that are less susceptible to loan demand at
Speaker 1: a time when people do have so much cash as
Speaker 1: a result of government intervention. Well, I think there's a
Speaker 1: natural sort of you know, conclusion at some point to
Speaker 1: the big capital markets banks were favorable on JP Morgan
Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley on Bank of America for you know, for
Speaker 1: the strength that we've seen the investment banking, the trading
Speaker 1: has just been phenomenal. Uh, and all the things that
Speaker 1: are in place that you would expect to see. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know why why are those numbers so strong? M
Speaker 1: and A activity more companies coming to market is because
Speaker 1: of the high CEO confidence, the record stock market values,
Speaker 1: the easy financing that we're seeing. So so I think
Speaker 1: there's another quarter or two probably of you know, really
Speaker 1: strong numbers coming out of investment banking and trading. But
Speaker 1: you know, as you've been talking about on the program,
Speaker 1: the anchor a bit has been that interesting. U, there's
Speaker 1: been the net margin issue use obviously is the you know,
Speaker 1: we're going to start to lap that as the FED
Speaker 1: from one year ago reduced rates to zero h So
Speaker 1: the year of the year comparisons will start to get better.
Speaker 1: But you really need loan growth, you know, for a
Speaker 1: bank like JP Morgan of revenues we expect are coming
Speaker 1: from that in just income, so those capital market side
Speaker 1: is only going to go so far. So we we
Speaker 1: do think there is you know, silver lining for regionals,
Speaker 1: uh in that the as as margins improved as the
Speaker 1: yield curve stepens as those lost reserves come back into profits.
Speaker 1: So you know, I wouldn't count out the regional banks
Speaker 1: just yet, and we'll go to the regional banks in
Speaker 1: a bit. But I want to stick on loan demand
Speaker 1: because that really is the story today. Is a lot
Speaker 1: of people pass out? How much is this a lack
Speaker 1: of demand resulting from people perhaps not able to hire
Speaker 1: or not willing to chart a new business after what
Speaker 1: they just experienced, or is this just simply because people
Speaker 1: have so much cash. When does it start to matter
Speaker 1: that loan demand is tepid when it comes to the
Speaker 1: economic prospect. Well, I think later this year, the expectation,
Speaker 1: uh certainly would be that as as vaccines do their jobs,
Speaker 1: as more people come back out into the workforce, as uh,
Speaker 1: you know we have we've already seen strong demand and
Speaker 1: housing and cars which are too really strong uh segments
Speaker 1: for for consumers in terms of you know, just pure
Speaker 1: dollar volume. But they have found that they don't need
Speaker 1: to to take lending out for a lot of other things,
Speaker 1: including credit card debt, which has been actually reduced over
Speaker 1: the course of the pandemic as the stimulus measures and others,
Speaker 1: and people have just been spent less on services and
Speaker 1: other things. So so I think that the worry begins
Speaker 1: later this year. Um, you know, we've moved down from
Speaker 1: unemployment down to six percent, so the next tranche of
Speaker 1: that is going to be harder to come by. I
Speaker 1: don't think we go from here to you know, to
Speaker 1: the previous low three and a half percent anytime soon,
Speaker 1: so that that kind of takes time to work off.
Speaker 1: In fact, you know, many jobs may not may not
Speaker 1: come back at all. So I think it's just a
Speaker 1: testament to the how strong the consumer balance sheet is today.
Speaker 1: They feel they don't need those, uh, those dollars for
Speaker 1: for lending. Uh. And I would happen to agree with
Speaker 1: Jamie diamond and at his comment about long growth being challenging.
Speaker 1: I think that is the case and will be the
Speaker 1: case for the next few quarters. Here, what do you
Speaker 1: think the pressure looks like to drop standards for lending
Speaker 1: right now, Stephen, You mean, what is what are the
Speaker 1: head winds to lending? Well, these banks is sitting on
Speaker 1: a ton of deposits. There's a lot of money that
Speaker 1: needs to get put to work if they can, Stephen.
Speaker 1: So I'm trying to understand if the demands not there
Speaker 1: from traditional sources, where do they go. Well, traditionally banks
Speaker 1: would you know, if given the strong shape of consumers
Speaker 1: and businesses, they would lower lending standards and uh and
Speaker 1: and try to push it that way. Um, you know
Speaker 1: that always has the counter effect down the road of
Speaker 1: higher charge offs. So um, I think it's yeah, the
Speaker 1: dynamics you mentioned very true on the on the deposit
Speaker 1: we're just seeing, you know, we've seen phenomenal, uh record
Speaker 1: growth in deposits, and I think that's one thing that
Speaker 1: needs to be where down. I mean, if you have
Speaker 1: ten in the bank, you're probably going to spend that
Speaker 1: first before you you know, go take out a loan.
Speaker 1: So I think that does have to wind down before
Speaker 1: we see that long growth and that's and that that's
Speaker 1: just an additional headwind. Uh So So no, I don't
Speaker 1: I don't think they have a simil bullet here to
Speaker 1: try to increase lending growth. They again could go out
Speaker 1: to the credit quality spectrum, but that tends to come
Speaker 1: back to bite and it's probably not a good idea
Speaker 1: at this time, you know, given were we are in
Speaker 1: the recovery process. Stephen. As a way, Stephen, think of that,
Speaker 1: Augus Research director, a financial institutions reset away from fee
Speaker 1: generation is the reality that it's all supported by a
Speaker 1: boom economy. Seth Carpenter ubs has been wonderful. Wonderful I
Speaker 1: should say about parsing uh this boom economy. Seth just
Speaker 1: gribe how opaque it is to get out beyond Q
Speaker 1: three this year. Oh my gosh, there's so much uncertainty
Speaker 1: at that point. I mean, we're pretty optimistic. We think
Speaker 1: UHO is going to be a pretty solid year, coming
Speaker 1: in just under four percent, but boy, that could go
Speaker 1: wrong in any number of ways. We still have fiscal policy.
Speaker 1: There's the debate about a new infrastructure package. There's a
Speaker 1: debate about how much taxes are going to go up
Speaker 1: in two and I think there's just the overall question
Speaker 1: of what is going to happen globally to the virus.
Speaker 1: Describe the turbulence A phrase from Alan Greenspan is wonderful.
Speaker 1: The age of turbulence. Let's take a boom economy as turbulence.
Speaker 1: Is it good turbulence? Is it a constructive churn of
Speaker 1: the capitalistic system? Yeah, I mean I think it's a
Speaker 1: good turbulence. Depends on if you're a vultrator or not.
Speaker 1: But no, I mean, I think there's a lot here.
Speaker 1: The first important part, I think is just seeing how
Speaker 1: quickly people who are out of work, displaced from their
Speaker 1: jobs get back to work. And I think that's more
Speaker 1: a matter of survival than sort of some underlying medium
Speaker 1: trend for the economy. But I do think there are
Speaker 1: lots of trends that existed pre COVID that are getting accelerated.
Speaker 1: Where you know, think about retail. We know that for
Speaker 1: years there is a decline in employment in retail as
Speaker 1: there was more online shopping. That trend just got massively
Speaker 1: accelerated with COVID, And I think we are going to
Speaker 1: see a continued transformation just in the way the economy
Speaker 1: works because of COVID. If there is so much uncertainty
Speaker 1: about what the shape of this cycle looks like the
Speaker 1: duration of it as well. When we came out of
Speaker 1: the last crisis, we had Muhammad ale Evan of the
Speaker 1: team at PIMCO talking about the new normal. We had
Speaker 1: the likes of Larry Summers reintroducing secular stagnation as a theme.
Speaker 1: And I think we've got a quick understanding about duration
Speaker 1: and the likelihood that we would get a shallow recovery
Speaker 1: as well this time around. It could be anything Morgan
Speaker 1: Stanley talking about shorter hotter, others talking about a return
Speaker 1: to trend off after the less the next couple of years,
Speaker 1: maybe back to what we saw before SETH. What are
Speaker 1: you anticipating, Yeah, I mean, I think there's no question
Speaker 1: and them right now there's a huge amount of impetus
Speaker 1: coming out of both fiscal and monetary policy combined. And
Speaker 1: if our forecast is born out, then we're going to
Speaker 1: see the unemployment rate get back down to the three
Speaker 1: and a half ish range that we saw just before
Speaker 1: covid UH sometime at the end of SAE. And if
Speaker 1: that's right, then what that means is we got through
Speaker 1: basically what it took us a ten year cycle to
Speaker 1: do in just a few years. And I think the
Speaker 1: next question is what happens next. We know that the
Speaker 1: last business cycle was not going to end right away.
Speaker 1: It didn't end on its own. It ended because we
Speaker 1: have this exhaugen of shock from COVID. I personally am
Speaker 1: pretty optimistic that there's plenty of possibility for more productivity gains,
Speaker 1: and I'm also curious to see just how far the
Speaker 1: labor market can go in terms of drawing people back
Speaker 1: in who have been outside of the labor market. How
Speaker 1: much is that view predicated on this idea that the
Speaker 1: cash pile that consumers have, which has actually been a
Speaker 1: problem for the banks since we've been talking about all morning,
Speaker 1: that they actually spend a lot of that money very quickly. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so it's only partially predicated on that. We do think
Speaker 1: that consumer spending is going to pick up and be
Speaker 1: very strong this year, but a lot of that is
Speaker 1: just getting back to a more normal relationship between consumer
Speaker 1: spending on the one hand, and income. Consumer spending is
Speaker 1: still very very depressed relative to, you know, what you
Speaker 1: would normally expect given where aggregate income is, especially consumer
Speaker 1: spending on services that's down six seven percent relative to
Speaker 1: pre COVID levels. If that comes back over the next
Speaker 1: two or three quarters, that's just a huge increase in
Speaker 1: spending in in percentage growth rate terms, and if we're right,
Speaker 1: that's going to be the initial of it is to
Speaker 1: pull thing, pull people back in. Sure, there's probably some
Speaker 1: spending out of that pent up savings out of everything
Speaker 1: that people didn't save last year, but what we know is,
Speaker 1: you know, savings, if it's kept long enough, becomes wealth,
Speaker 1: and we know that consumers tendency to spend out of
Speaker 1: wealth isn't that big. And so I think first order
Speaker 1: it really is let's get back to normal. That that
Speaker 1: that urge people will have to get back to normal.
Speaker 1: That's just clarify again for me. Retail sales tomorrow. We've
Speaker 1: had CPI Tuesday, we've had bancounings this morning, will be
Speaker 1: lading with retail souths tomorrow. What's your number. Yeah, So
Speaker 1: we think it's going to be very very strong, and uh,
Speaker 1: you know, five is all possible in a month on
Speaker 1: month basis. What we saw in February was actually a shortfall.
Speaker 1: Part of that was driven because tax refunds, a lot
Speaker 1: of what you're driven by our necome tax credits were low.
Speaker 1: That should be a boost this time. Then we have
Speaker 1: the fiscal stimulus checks coming in, and we also have
Speaker 1: warmer weather and falling COVID mortality, so the risk has gone.
Speaker 1: So we're looking for a really big number for March,
Speaker 1: and we think that's just the starting point for a
Speaker 1: very strong second quarter, probably close to ten eleven percent
Speaker 1: at an annual rate for Q two unreal. Seth go
Speaker 1: to catch up. Seth compt to US chief US Economist.
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