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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Forbes says Donald Trump's wealth has

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Speaker 1: ballooned to six point five billion dollars. He made one

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Speaker 1: point four billion dollars over the past year. Have you

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Speaker 1: because I have not. We have such a great show

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Speaker 1: for you today. Ms now's Ali Batali steps by to

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Speaker 1: talk about Congress trying to finally reopen DHS. Then we'll

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Speaker 1: talk to The New York Times Shane Goldmocker about Republican's

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Speaker 1: weird plan to have a midterm convention and what it

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Speaker 1: all means. But first the.

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Speaker 2: News my really really wild house ethics curing where the

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Speaker 2: committee found somewhat guilty. This is like never happens, and

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Speaker 2: it's a Democrat.

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Speaker 1: Yes, okay, so let's talk about this. She's at Florida

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Speaker 1: Democrat Shila Truflis McCormick hyphenated dame, just like myself. She

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Speaker 1: has a criminal trial going too, So here's the question here.

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Speaker 1: It's an ethics trial and a criminal trial. She is

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Speaker 1: a member of Congress, pretty New, pretty young. The church

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Speaker 1: centers on a five million dollar government overpayment to her

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Speaker 1: family healthcare company, which was funneled through conduits and family

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Speaker 1: members to twenty twenty two House campaign. A few things here.

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Speaker 1: This is one of the sort of very rare times

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Speaker 1: when you have a Democrat facing the kind of allegations

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Speaker 1: that we often see with Republicans. Now, look, have we

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Speaker 1: seen this happen with Democrats before? Robert Menendez? Right, we've

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Speaker 1: seen it before. For sure. There is such wide, overreaching

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Speaker 1: fraud on the Republican side when it comes to Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump and his cabinet of kleptocrats, that it's worth realizing

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Speaker 1: that Democrats should be running on fighting fraud and not

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Speaker 1: committing fraud. And so this is just one member of Congress.

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Speaker 1: There are you know, one hundreds and more than four

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Speaker 1: hundred members of Congress. So I personally think she should

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Speaker 1: just resign so this can get off the docket and

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Speaker 1: they can appoint someone else. The problem is, in Florida

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Speaker 1: you have this governor. So maybe she stays, and you know,

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Speaker 1: DeSantis is not going to put someone else in there

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Speaker 1: who's a Democrat, especially with the numbers being so tight,

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Speaker 1: So maybe she does need to stay. But Democrats need

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Speaker 1: to prosecute the case of Trump fraud. And in this

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Speaker 1: way it's hard to have her. And the other problem

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Speaker 1: is there are two things going on here. There's the

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Speaker 1: ethics and then there's a criminal trial. And the question is,

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Speaker 1: like having an ethics trial at the same time as

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Speaker 1: a criminal trial, Like is that a violation of her

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Speaker 1: civil rights?

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Speaker 2: So that's where we are fun stuff. So this is

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Speaker 2: my favorite story. This is really like the nutrition I

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Speaker 2: get for some of the terrible things we have to

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Speaker 2: put in the show today. So Rod DeSantis is having

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Speaker 2: lots of trouble with this immigration crackdown. For example, a

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Speaker 2: bunch of the sheriffs he appointed, who are very baga,

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Speaker 2: are like, nah, bro, this is hurting the farmers. I

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Speaker 2: can't do this anymore. This story of the New York

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Speaker 2: Times is just delicious on how stupid this policy is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so these are conservative sheriffs. So these are trumpy sheriffs. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's a very interesting story because I mean, there are

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Speaker 1: a number of reasons. A. It's here's the guy saying

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Speaker 1: it's too wide a net, he says, and we're hurting

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Speaker 1: people who are not the targets of this. But there's

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Speaker 1: something else interesting happening here. Prosecutors don't want to prosecute this.

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Speaker 1: And in this story it talks about how they have

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Speaker 1: people who are getting picked up and having to be

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Speaker 1: driven around to start the clock and then going to

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Speaker 1: prosecutors who are refusing to prosecute. And in this story

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Speaker 1: they talk about a man who has a brain tumor

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Speaker 1: who had been in holding for twenty five days and

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Speaker 1: had no criminal allegations whatsoever, and the prosecutor refused to

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Speaker 1: prosecute because he was like, this is just insane. And

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Speaker 1: so we really are seeing a failure on every level

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Speaker 1: of this policy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and also who could have predicted it? Everyone?

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Speaker 1: Everyone, But that's like all of this. Everyone could have

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Speaker 1: predicted all of this.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of people got very scared that the

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Speaker 2: Republicans were going to try to pass a lot of

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Speaker 2: the Save Act through reconciliation this week. And what we're

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Speaker 2: already seeing is that's going fucking terribly Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Good, this is a story of Trump world yet again, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: you know, trying to do something they can't do. Luck away.

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Speaker 1: So this is an amendment that would require voters to

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Speaker 1: show photo identification to cast a ballot, and it failed

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Speaker 1: to advance in the Senate. By the way, this whole

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Speaker 1: thing like, federal is not supposed to regulate state when

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Speaker 1: it comes to elections. That's what our constitution says, right

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Speaker 1: that they that our elections are state run. So the

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Speaker 1: idea now that the reason that Trump is trying to

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Speaker 1: get the federal government to regulate elections is because he

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Speaker 1: knows he's going to lose. The vote came the second

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Speaker 1: week of a marathon debate, you know, so basically in

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Speaker 1: the middle of this talking filibuster about the Save Act.

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Speaker 1: And you know, during this filibuster, our Democrats have managed

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Speaker 1: to like have them vote. They voted a ton of

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Speaker 1: times on reopening the government. You know, they've gotten Republicans

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Speaker 1: on the record in every which way, which has been

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Speaker 1: I think is good in a way, just to show

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Speaker 1: that they don't want to reopen the government, that they

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Speaker 1: don't have the best interests of the American people at heart.

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Speaker 2: All right, now comes the stupidest story I've put in

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Speaker 2: this show in so long I could barely move the

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Speaker 2: key strokes. The US Treasury plans to put Trump's signature

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Speaker 2: on currency.

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Speaker 1: You know, you're so crabby about this, but it's relevant

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Speaker 1: and important, I'm sorry to tell you. So, It's just

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Speaker 1: it feels so dumb Trump wants to have money with

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Speaker 1: his name on it, and there you have it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I could say more. He also is going to do

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Speaker 1: a commemorative coin in which I'm sure is not like

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Speaker 1: the fake commemorative coins that he sells already, but a

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Speaker 1: real fake commemorative coin that he sells already. So it's

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Speaker 1: like the grift. And it's also autocracy right like my

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Speaker 1: man wants to be linked in. And why it's important

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Speaker 1: is because there's not something we do with living presidents.

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Speaker 1: It's not how we've ever done it. You know. Trump

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Speaker 1: is doing it because he just has no respect for norms.

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Speaker 1: We have exciting news over at our YouTube channel. The

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Speaker 1: third episode is out now from our series Project twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty nine, are reimagining, where we examine what went wrong

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Speaker 1: with democrats approach to policy and how we can correct

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Speaker 1: it and deliver changes for the American people. The first

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Speaker 1: episodes dove into campaign finance, reform, anti trust, and regulation.

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Speaker 1: Our newest episode is on and how we solidify reproductive

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Speaker 1: rights for women. We talked to the smartest names in

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Speaker 1: the fields like abortion every Day is Jessica Valenti the

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Speaker 1: Center for Reproductive Rights Nancy Northam UCLA is oh Mary

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Speaker 1: Ziegler and the gout Macher Institute's Kelly Badden. Republicans were

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Speaker 1: prepared for when they got the levers of power. Democrats

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Speaker 1: need to be too, So please head over to YouTube

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Speaker 1: and search Mollie John Fast Project twenty twenty nine or

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Speaker 1: go to the Fast Politics YouTube channel page and you'll

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Speaker 1: find it there. Help us spread the word. Ellie but

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Speaker 1: Telly is a senior Capitol Hill reporter and the host

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Speaker 1: of ms now's Way Too Early Ami Vitelli, Mollie John Fast,

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Speaker 1: thank you for coming on. We love you and think

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Speaker 1: you're great.

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Speaker 3: Love you think you're great.

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Speaker 1: And also, Congress almost made itself relevant today.

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Speaker 3: Congress tried to Congress TVD.

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Speaker 1: If they did it, it's like the first time they've

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Speaker 1: tried to do it all season.

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Speaker 3: It's nice when we get a revival, like a callback

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Speaker 3: to a past season.

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Speaker 1: Congress trying to Survivals.

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Speaker 3: Are never as good as the original, though, so we'll

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Speaker 3: see we get here exactly.

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Speaker 1: So let's set this up. Homeland Security DHS in a shutdown,

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Speaker 1: had been in a shutdown, with the exception of the

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Speaker 1: President's Super Scary Paramilitary which has its own funding, which

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Speaker 1: is funded for billions of dollars forever and ever, but

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Speaker 1: shutting down Homeland was in the hopes that they could

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Speaker 1: negotiate more stuff for ice, more guard rails, maybe some identification,

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Speaker 1: lack of masks, body cameras, some of the kind of

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Speaker 1: stuff we technically have in what used to be our country.

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Speaker 1: So talk us through what actually happened.

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Speaker 3: If this deal of the it passed a bill that

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Speaker 3: would reopen DHS and fund everything except for ice and

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Speaker 3: border protection. If that sounds familiar, it's because it is

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Speaker 3: literally the thing that we started forty two days ago

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Speaker 3: with Democrats saying, hey, we will actually vote to keep

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Speaker 3: DHS open if only we pull out these two pieces

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Speaker 3: of it. And I think that the deal that takes

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Speaker 3: right exactly right. And I think the deal that they

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Speaker 3: came out with tells us two things. The first and

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Speaker 3: we have to wait and see if the House ultimately

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Speaker 3: passes this. There are questions about how quickly they can move.

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Speaker 3: There's a rule in the House that you can't vote

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Speaker 3: by a suspension, which is basically how you bypass the

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Speaker 3: rules committee and need a two third majority of the

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Speaker 3: chamber to pass something. You can't do those kinds of

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Speaker 3: votes on Fridays, so it kind of bogs down the process,

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Speaker 3: and it means that Speaker Johnson has to heard more

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Speaker 3: of his own cats getting them to the table while

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Speaker 3: also haggling the Democrats. So at eleven am now on Friday,

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Speaker 3: tbd how the House or if the House ultimately moves

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Speaker 3: on this. But the way they said it did this

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Speaker 3: deal tells us two things. The first is that Republicans

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Speaker 3: are aware that ICE was go atting its funding through

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Speaker 3: another mechanism, so they can sort of save political face

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Speaker 3: by saying, yeah, we can reopen it without technically funding ICE.

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Speaker 3: The second thing is the leverage is now sort of

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Speaker 3: gone for any guardrails to be negotiated on. And so

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Speaker 3: while Democrats have clearly made the point that they are

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Speaker 3: not going to fund ICE any further a, Republicans already

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Speaker 3: did that last summer, and b there is now no

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Speaker 3: real political push to do guardrails on ICE and border

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Speaker 3: protection for the way that they do immigration enforcement. I

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Speaker 3: just think, like I heard whispers of this back in

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Speaker 3: January after the tragedies on the ground of Minneapolis, and

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Speaker 3: I think that time unfortunately is masking that political wound.

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Speaker 3: And so I just don't have a ton of confidence.

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Speaker 3: I'd love to be proven wrong that there are going

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Speaker 3: to be new guardrails negotiated.

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Speaker 1: Right, But I want to talk about sort of what

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Speaker 1: happened so forty one days of shutdown, Right, we have

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Speaker 1: TSA workers not being paid for forty one days. That's

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Speaker 1: how we got these terrible bottlenecks in the airport. Now.

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Speaker 1: So earlier this week there was a deal and Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump said, no dice, no deal with Democrats until I get,

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Speaker 1: by the way, I love this, until I get my

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Speaker 1: Save Act so that I can mess with elections and

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Speaker 1: not lose it the midterms. Explain to us what happened

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Speaker 1: on Friday, because on or on Thursday, because on Thursday

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Speaker 1: he said we're actually good, I'm gonna fund it, which

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Speaker 1: is actually not true. And then he did an executive order,

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Speaker 1: So explain what happened there.

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Speaker 3: Trump trying to include the Save Act here is like

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Speaker 3: should be a sweetener, but it actually isn't a sweetener.

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Speaker 3: It just causes more problems for Republicans. Like every time

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Speaker 3: he comes forward and says I'm not going to sign

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Speaker 3: any other bill until you send me the Save Act,

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Speaker 3: like he's actually the call is coming from inside his

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Speaker 3: own house on this one, and it's coming from him

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Speaker 3: messing with his colleagues on the Republican side, who like, yes,

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Speaker 3: there are a large number of them who want to

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Speaker 3: vote for that bill, but there are also not enough

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Speaker 3: people in the Senate to bypass the sixty vote threshold

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Speaker 3: of the filibuster. He wants them to then blow up

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Speaker 3: the filibuster, and John thun Is like, hey, I have

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Speaker 3: a memory longer than a flea. I remember when Democrats

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Speaker 3: held the line and we praised them, and we don't

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Speaker 3: want to be on the receiving end of whatever Democrats

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Speaker 3: would do without a filibuster, right, So that's the backdrop.

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Speaker 3: Some then tried to come in over the top after

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Speaker 3: scuttling a deal that came together that looked, by the way,

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Speaker 3: a heck of a ton, just like the one that

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Speaker 3: they ended up doing by unanimous consent overnight in the

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Speaker 3: Senate to reopen DHS. He ended up coming in over

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Speaker 3: the top and saying, Okay, I'm just going to executive

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Speaker 3: order payment to TSA agents, which, by the way, power

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Speaker 3: of the purse is a Congress thing, even though we

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Speaker 3: know that Congress doesn't really congress anymore. And it also

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Speaker 3: gives Democrats a pretty simple talking point of Oh, if

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Speaker 3: you were able to do this forty one days ago,

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Speaker 3: why'd you let these people suffer for so long? And

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Speaker 3: by the way, since he's not actually technically able to

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Speaker 3: do that, he's moving money around within DHS. And I've

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Speaker 3: seen them do this before even though they're not allowed

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Speaker 3: to do it. Congress has not clawing back the power.

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Speaker 3: So that's kind of where it leaves it. And so

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Speaker 3: we'll see ultimately which thing gets TSA agents paid first.

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Speaker 3: But that's the landscape.

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Speaker 1: And I also think it's really a case of Trump

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Speaker 1: trying to take credit for something, right, Like clearly somebody

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Speaker 1: was like, I mean, I was on Morning Joe Today

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Speaker 1: with mar Gay and Mara was talking about how she

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Speaker 1: had talked to voters on these lines who blamed Trump.

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Speaker 1: Have you seen that.

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Speaker 3: I think that what's instructive is that the last shutdown,

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Speaker 3: where Republicans were so sure they were not going to

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Speaker 3: get blamed, polling showed they were getting blamed. And in

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Speaker 3: this instance, I think it is the same thing yet again,

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Speaker 3: because a the polling was already there against immigration overreach, right,

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Speaker 3: you couple that with the fact that voters as much

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Speaker 3: as some of them are not paying attention to the

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Speaker 3: rules about a suspension on a front like they don't care.

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Speaker 3: Thank god, I only get paid for that right, But

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Speaker 3: they do care about being smart enough to know. Wait

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Speaker 3: a second, Republicans control not just the White House, but

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Speaker 3: the House and the Senate, and the government is in

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Speaker 3: a shutdown.

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Speaker 1: So why is the.

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Speaker 3: Majority party with all the numbers and all the power

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Speaker 3: not making it work? And frankly, when the shoes on

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Speaker 3: the other foot, that's where Democrats get blamed. The party

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Speaker 3: in power always gets smeared because voters are smart enough

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Speaker 3: to know the basic thing has run the government and

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Speaker 3: if the government's not running them, what's up?

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Speaker 1: Right? And I think so I think that Trump trying

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Speaker 1: to like take credit for this also cuts both ways

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Speaker 1: because if he could have ended it today, why didn't

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Speaker 1: he ended forty one days ago? Correct? You know?

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Speaker 3: I think the thing that's so interesting, And we were

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Speaker 3: talking about this on my show this morning. Shout out

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Speaker 3: to way too early everyone who wants to be in

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Speaker 3: a morning person, you can come hang out with us.

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Speaker 1: Five am, five am.

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Speaker 3: But we were talking about this idea that like the

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Speaker 3: issue set right now on affordability, on not having daylight

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Speaker 3: with the White House. The Republican strategist I had on

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Speaker 3: this morning said, the issue set right now is the

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Speaker 3: exact opposite of what Republicans did to Democrats in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four. In twenty twenty four, Republicans we're slamming Democrats

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Speaker 3: on why won't you break with Biden? Why won't you

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Speaker 3: criticize Kamala Harris? Costs are high, you're not doing anything

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Speaker 3: about it? And now it's exactly the same, but Democrats

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Speaker 3: doing it to Republicans, and Republicans the question they're going

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Speaker 3: to have to answer, and I know that they are

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Speaker 3: grappling with this privately, but private doesn't count because we're

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Speaker 3: in a public environment. Right They are going to have

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Speaker 3: to figure out when their political fortunes matter more than

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Speaker 3: Fielty to the White House, which is only making their

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Speaker 3: headwinds more aggressive than history told them they were already

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Speaker 3: going to be in this midterm.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a really good point, and that's what

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Speaker 1: we see. You know, the Biden administration did this thing,

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Speaker 1: which was they said you can break with us, which

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Speaker 1: a lot of White Houses have not said. You know,

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Speaker 1: they said you can criticize right everyone, but Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: So tell us exactly that, tell us what the story was,

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Speaker 1: and also what the history of not being able to

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Speaker 1: break with the White House in power.

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Speaker 3: Oh look, I mean, like you don't break with the

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Speaker 3: leaders of your party. That's just not really what it

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Speaker 3: is to be in a party apparatus. There's always different rules, right,

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Speaker 3: I mean Nancy Pelosi was the best at this. She

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Speaker 3: would tell some of her more vulnerable members when she

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Speaker 3: had to twist their arms to put them in line. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean like she was the velvet hammer on that

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Speaker 3: for a reason. Many of those Democratic members have scars

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Speaker 3: to tell of the times that she twisted them into

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Speaker 3: votes that were problematic for them. But at the same time,

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Speaker 3: she used to say to them, just win, baby, do

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Speaker 3: what you gotta do to win the race, because ultimately

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Speaker 3: the numbers here in Washington are what matters. That's what

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Speaker 3: midterms are about. And so yes, white houses are important

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Speaker 3: in that. But typically presidents don't command as much fealty

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Speaker 3: as Trump does. And that's where you have to get

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Speaker 3: into grappling with the fact that the Republican Party is

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Speaker 3: not showing signs of being a healthy party in that

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Speaker 3: while for people who ascribe to a Democratic faith or

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Speaker 3: a Republican faith, it's hard to see people within the

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Speaker 3: party argue with each other, but it is actually the

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Speaker 3: sign that there is a healthy exchange of ideas. And

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Speaker 3: in the Republican Party right now, having any idea that

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Speaker 3: is opposite of what Trump wants you to have is

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Speaker 3: considered disloyal, is considered reason to be primaried, and is

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Speaker 3: considered to be reason to be cleaned out of the House.

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Speaker 3: And he's shown that he's willing to do that. And

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Speaker 3: so for these members, whether the White House were to

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Speaker 3: greenlight this or not, and of course they never would,

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Speaker 3: for these members, they have to stay in line even

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Speaker 3: though Trump is not on the ticket, and Trump is

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Speaker 3: only providing them problems politically in some of these tougher

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Speaker 3: swaying districts. We're really talking about like thirty seats here,

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Speaker 3: and if even half of them flip, I mean, that's

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Speaker 3: a bigger majority than Republicans have had in the last

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Speaker 3: two congresses.

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Speaker 1: Yes, so what they're gonna do now, I want you

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Speaker 1: to talk through Congress for a minute, so they'll be

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Speaker 1: this vote, They'll fund DHS. Then they're gonna still need

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Speaker 1: to fund ICE though, Ice has ten trillion dollars to

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Speaker 1: the they're going to put that will mean that soon

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Speaker 1: will have to do another package. So talk us through

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Speaker 1: what that means.

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Speaker 3: Reconciliation is like my least favorite word because everyone's eyes

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Speaker 3: glaze over. But really it just means whatever party is

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Speaker 3: in power gets to unilaterally put together a group of

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Speaker 3: things that have a budgetary impact that's really important and

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Speaker 3: pass it on through.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 3: So they did the so called one Big Beautiful Bill

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Speaker 3: that was through the process of reconciliation. They're coming back

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Speaker 3: on a reconciliation two point zero. God only knows what

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Speaker 3: the title of this one will be. But there is

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Speaker 3: a lot of consternation among Republicans about getting this second

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Speaker 3: package through, in large part because it's expected to include

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Speaker 3: things like two hundred billion dollars in supplemental funding for

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Speaker 3: the ongoing Iran war, a conflict that frankly, even top

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Speaker 3: Republicans in the House are starting to get a little

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Speaker 3: bit vocal about. They don't feel they're getting clear information

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Speaker 3: from the administration. They're saying, look, we're not being disloyal,

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Speaker 3: we just aren't getting our questions answered, which frankly is

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Speaker 3: what Democrats have been complaining about from these administration briefings

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Speaker 3: for months now. So the fact that Republicans are catching

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Speaker 3: up is notable.

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Speaker 1: Roger Wicker, right, yeah.

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Speaker 3: Well Wicker has been like a little more private in

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Speaker 3: the concer. Mike Roger is over on the House side,

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Speaker 3: is who has been the most vocal of this, and

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Speaker 3: he's at the chairman level.

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Speaker 1: So notice, right, and.

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Speaker 3: It's to others. But so even if you just look

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Speaker 3: at that, right, that two hundred billion dollars is fraud

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Speaker 3: from the fact that Republicans didn't get to vote their

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Speaker 3: way into the Iran war. But now they are going

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Speaker 3: to be asked to vote on funding for it, and

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Speaker 3: they're going to be asked to just swallow any concerns

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Speaker 3: that they have about that ongoing conflict.

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Speaker 1: That's just one.

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Speaker 5: Piece of it.

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Speaker 3: Right. Once you get into a period of reconciliation, especially

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Speaker 3: in a midterm year, you've got members who are going

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Speaker 3: to be coming out saying, no Weight, I want this,

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Speaker 3: no Wight, I want this. And when your majorities are

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Speaker 3: as slim as they are, you actually have the as

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Speaker 3: a member, you have a singular ability to withhold your

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Speaker 3: vote until you get the thing that you want. Everyone

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Speaker 3: in the House gets to be you know, a Senator

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Speaker 3: Joe Mansion or a Senator Kirsten Cinema. To put it

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Speaker 3: in term that the audience might be triggered to understand, right,

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Speaker 3: like you have a singular power when your vote is

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Speaker 3: so needed. And this is not going to be an

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Speaker 3: easy process, but it is likely to be one that

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Speaker 3: comes on really fast on the.

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Speaker 1: Hill, right, And I think that that is important and

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Speaker 1: relevant because that's also going to be where they try

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Speaker 1: to do some Save Act stuff, right and others.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, so talk us through that they're going to

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Speaker 1: Save Act. Is this idea that Trump wants to federalize

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Speaker 1: election basically and make it harder to vote, and he's

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Speaker 1: all over the place and it's bad for democracy, but

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Speaker 1: it's also it's very bad for Republicans in a certain

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Speaker 1: way because places like Alaska vote by mail and huge numbers.

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Speaker 1: What do you think he's going to try here? Because reconciliation, remember,

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Speaker 1: has a top line that is supposed to be budgetary.

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Speaker 3: It has to hit some kind of budgetary bottom line,

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Speaker 3: so you have to connect federal funding to whatever it

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Speaker 3: is you're trying to do. And this is why the

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Speaker 3: parliamentarian is going to be so important. You're going to

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Speaker 3: hear US congressional reporters a lot and saying, well, the

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Speaker 3: parliamentarian ruled this or not this, so that's going to

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Speaker 3: be impactful. But look, I think the same act. The

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Speaker 3: reason why it's not getting every single republic full throated

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Speaker 3: we're doing this is because of what you're saying. Republicans

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Speaker 3: do well with rural voters in rural states, and in

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Speaker 3: rural states sometimes that means that you cannot get to

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Speaker 3: your polling place or maybe you just don't want to.

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Speaker 3: And when you look at a state like Alaska, which

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Speaker 3: is so important to bring up because this is one

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Speaker 3: of the key seats that we are looking in the

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Speaker 3: Senate landscape. I've gone to Alaska. I've covered these contests

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Speaker 3: in the past. Mary Peltola. I covered her first election

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Speaker 3: to Congress, right, it was where she beat Sarah palin

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Speaker 3: Plan was trying to make a comeback. This was twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two. Yeah, Heeltola has been out of the

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Speaker 3: House for two years. Huge recruiting opportunity for Chuck Schumer

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Speaker 3: that he was able to succeed with and now very position.

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Speaker 3: Dan Sullivan, the Republican is trying to run for real liaction,

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Speaker 3: and if you're taking away people's ability to participate in

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Speaker 3: that contest, I don't think that helps him. Yeah, and

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Speaker 3: this is just one example of why that legislation, like yes,

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Speaker 3: on its face, voter ID actually I think sounds common

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Speaker 3: sense to a lot of people. But when you start

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Speaker 3: talking about needing your birth certificate to match your other

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Speaker 3: forms of identification, and you start thinking about something as

437
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 3: simple as women getting married and changing their last names,

438
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 3: it's just one immediate example of why that legislation on

439
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 3: its face doesn't actually do what Republicans say it does.

440
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 1: Right, And there's also some question. I mean, look, I

441
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 1: think it's bad for any number of reasons, and even

442
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,439
Speaker 1: just the fact that Trump is trying to mess with

443
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 1: elections because he sees the pall laying and we see

444
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 1: what Mike Lee is tweeting, and we see, you know,

445
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: we see Republicans giving away the game here. But there's

446
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: some evidence too that this could actually hurt Republicans. It's

447
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: not it doesn't necessarily cut because remember Trump had all

448
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 1: these low frequency, low propensity voters come out for him,

449
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 1: but those people do not necessarily have passports, etc.

450
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 3: Also, can we just please point out what happened in

451
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 3: the cabinet meeting the other day where our friend Liz

452
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,640
Speaker 3: Landers at PBS said to him, why did you use

453
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 3: a mail in ballot to vote in the legislative election

454
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 3: around Palm Beach? And he's like, well, it wasn't there.

455
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: I was in Washington. And she's like yeah, but like

456
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 3: you were in Palm Beach, so why didn't you just

457
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 3: go in person? And was like, well, I'm the president

458
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 3: And it's like, oh, so can you only vote by

459
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 3: mail if you're the president?

460
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 5: Like what?

461
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 1: Well? And my favorite part of that whole thing is

462
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: that not only did he vote by mail, but his

463
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: son voted by mail and his wife voted by mail.

464
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 3: Is perfectly allowed.

465
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, wait no. My favorite part though, is that the

466
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 1: state senator, the Florida State Senator representing his district on

467
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: Tuesday lost. Yeah, And that I think is and that

468
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,239
Speaker 1: was a big because that was a you know on

469
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 1: our Yeah.

470
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 3: And the DLCC, the Democratic Ledge Committee, is putting out

471
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 3: the statistic and their right to it's a great number.

472
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 3: The fact that they have been able to flip thirty

473
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 3: legislative seats across the country in the past year, and

474
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 3: Republicans have been able to flip zero. And I think

475
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 3: the thing that we're forced to grapple with is are

476
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 3: those singular specific elections which they might be special election.

477
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: Mike Johnson on five News, Yeah, which which that could

478
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 1: be true, right, special elections can be special.

479
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: But also when there's thirty of them, I think that

480
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 3: that's more of a pattern that's worth paying attention to

481
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 3: and could be a really again added to the list

482
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 3: of negative signs for Republicans going into the midterms, Well,

483
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 3: you know.

484
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 1: The polling is unbelievably bad. I mean, he's on the

485
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: back foot on everything from the economy to inflation to immigration.

486
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: I mean his winning it. He has no winning issues anymore.

487
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: And those really were his untouchables, right, I mean Democrats

488
00:24:58,680 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 3: that I would talk to that I'm sure that you

489
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 3: we're talking to. We're sort of like racked with Okay,

490
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,360
Speaker 3: you know twenty twenty four election cycle that is focused

491
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 3: on immigration and affordability and like national security, and Trump

492
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 3: is running away with those issues, fair or not. That's

493
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 3: what the minds of the electorate said, Like, Democrats were

494
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 3: constantly vexed with how they could get a cohesive message

495
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 3: out that would counter that, and early on in the

496
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 3: Trump administration. Some of them started saying to me, like,

497
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 3: we just got to let this play out because he

498
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 3: is going to overreach. They were going to overstep, and

499
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 3: the public is going to say, WHOA, we voted for it,

500
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 3: but not like that. And I think that might be

501
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 3: the story that we end up telling in mid November

502
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 3: after the election. But ultimately you won't You won't truly

503
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 3: know until you.

504
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: Know, Yeah, we voted for it, but not like that. Yeah,

505
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: Ali viatally, thank you for joining Mollie Always. Shane Goldmacher

506
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: is a national political correspondent for The New York Times.

507
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 4: Welcome, Welcome, Shane, Thanks for having me on.

508
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 1: I wanted you to come on so we could talk

509
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: about this piece you wrote for the New York Times,

510
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: and then we're going to talk about a lot of

511
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: other stuff because all of the pieces you're writing right

512
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: now are exactly the nerdiness that I need. But let's

513
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 1: talk about this. So Trump and the RNC are going

514
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 1: or at least as much as any of this will

515
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: actually happen, and Trump lad and there's always a caveat

516
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,679
Speaker 1: right because this is a group where who knows, but

517
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: they're thinking about having a mid term convention in Dallas, Texas.

518
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 1: Give me everything you want to tell me about this story.

519
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, so when we think about conventions, we

520
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 4: think every four years, balloons and presidential nominees and pageantry,

521
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 4: and like Donald Trump loves that stuff, right, it's a

522
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 4: show that he gets to be the MC of. And

523
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 4: he has been enamored with the idea that Republicans should

524
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 4: do this this year in a midterm And yeah, that's

525
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 4: been decades since either party has done a midterm mention.

526
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 4: The Democrats floated the idea last year as well. They've

527
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 4: since said they're not going to do it. One of

528
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 4: the reasons is this is expensive, right, you got to

529
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 4: rent an arena, you got to stage it, and the

530
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 4: parties raise money and use nonprofit groups to like fund

531
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 4: these every four years.

532
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 5: So this is a big, big investment of money and time.

533
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 4: And yeah, they are all but settled on trying to

534
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 4: do it in Dallas this fall. You know, we reported

535
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 4: that that city is where they've picked. There's a you know,

536
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 4: political probably reasons and logistical reasons. What arenas work. But

537
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 4: this is going to be I think one of the

538
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,479
Speaker 4: organizing moments of a midterm campaign, which is often sprawling, right,

539
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 4: you got all these House races and Senate races, but

540
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 4: they're talking about bringing everybody together and trying to nationalize

541
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 4: this race and say you need to vote Republican to

542
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 4: save these Republican majorities that are very very narrow in

543
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 4: the House and you know bigger but you know increasingly

544
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 4: in jeopardy in the Senate.

545
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: So why Texas.

546
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 4: It's a great question. They are going to have their

547
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 4: actual convention in twenty twenty eight in Houston. I think

548
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 4: partly it's logistical. Partly it's can you find a city

549
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 4: with a Republican mayor a state with a Republican governor

550
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 4: who don't run into logistical problems. Most of the big

551
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 4: cities are governed by Democrats. And also Texas is an

552
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 4: important state this year. This is the first state that

553
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 4: President Trump and the Republicans redistricted. They redrew the House

554
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 4: maps to squeeze out as many as five new districts,

555
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 4: and they need to win those seats in order.

556
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 5: To hold the majority.

557
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 4: And now not only do we have all these House

558
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 4: seats in places where, by the way, the party's redistricting

559
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 4: is looking less certain than it did before, as Democrats

560
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 4: have been made some gains among Latino voters, and in

561
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 4: some of these special elections, you also have a Senate

562
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 4: race there. Republicans are still engaged in a pretty brutal primary,

563
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 4: a runoff between John Cornyn, who's all but begging for

564
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 4: President Trump's endorsement, and Ken's Paxton, the state attorney general,

565
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 4: who in a lot of the public and private services

566
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 4: ahead of John Cornyn, the incumbent, and the Democrats have

567
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 4: nominated James tall Rico, who has proved a fundraise things

568
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 4: star for the Democratic Party is going to have the

569
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 4: resources to be competitive in that state. And so now

570
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 4: you're going to be bringing this convention and this attention

571
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 4: to a state that you know it has not been

572
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 4: at the top of the electoral calculations for either party

573
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 4: for a long time, but more so than in a

574
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 4: long time it is this year in twenty twenty six.

575
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 1: Trump has still not endorsed, So there's like a pretty

576
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 1: bruising runoff going. I mean, for party star warts, Trump

577
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: would endorse Cornan because Cornan is less trumpy, and then

578
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 1: Republicans would rally around him and Paxton would drop out.

579
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: But it seems pretty clear from the amount of money

580
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: spent already in this race that Cornan is really on

581
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: the back foot, and that Paxton, who's spent like a

582
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: very small multiple of what, yeah, what Cornan has spent,

583
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 1: has much more momentum. So even at this moment, I wonder,

584
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: I mean, why do you think Trump is not endorsing here.

585
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 4: So let's step back to the first round of this

586
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 4: race where Paxton versus cornn and it took about seventy

587
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 4: million dollars, which is an enormous sum of money of

588
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 4: advertising to get John Cornyn to very very narrowly top

589
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 4: Ken Paxton. Right, this is an incumbent senator with seventy

590
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 4: million dollars of support and he gets like forty two

591
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 4: percent and just barely above Ken Paxton. So for some

592
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 4: for corner folks, this was a reason for celebration he

593
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 4: beat him. Right, on the other hand, it was totally

594
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 4: a sign of his vulnerability. And the hope had been

595
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 4: in the immediate aftermath of this race that President Trump

596
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 4: would endorse him and basically nudge.

597
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 5: Paxton out of the race, and that's not what happened.

598
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 4: Right afterwards, Paxton did I think a pretty smart savvy

599
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 4: political move. He said, Okay, I will drop out of

600
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 4: this race if John Cornyn promises to get rid of

601
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 4: the filibuster or consider dropping out of the race if

602
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 4: John Cornyn gets rid of the philibuster and passes President

603
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 4: Trump's number one legislative priority to Save Act. And it

604
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 4: was a way for Paxton to get ahead of making

605
00:30:58,120 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 4: this just about his own personal interest and make it

606
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 4: a President Trump's political interests.

607
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 3: Right.

608
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 4: Paston took no risks of making sure the President would

609
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 4: see this gambit, this video.

610
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 5: Oh, he has personally texted it to Donald Trumpton.

611
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 4: You know, I don't know the exact words of the text,

612
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 4: but it was FYI, you know, want to make sure

613
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 4: you know that I'm saying this. And so Cornyan had,

614
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 4: by all accounts, been pretty close to considering endorsing Cornyn.

615
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 4: I've reported that there was even a draft statement of

616
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 4: an endorsement that was circulating for him to consider. And

617
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 4: now that's on ice, right, he said he wants the

618
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 4: Save Act. Cornan has changed his position on the filibuster.

619
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 4: So they are looking at more months of a more

620
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 4: negative race between these two guys.

621
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a world where Paxton is unstoppable, where Trump

622
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: Trump is to endorse Cornyan and Paxton still you know,

623
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: like Patson has almost out Trump Trump here.

624
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 5: That's one hundred percent true.

625
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 4: And I think that this is one of the hold

626
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 4: ups for Donald Trump and his political team or some

627
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 4: of them, is they deeply value the power of his endorsement.

628
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 4: And if you endorse somebody and they lose, your own

629
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 4: power is diminished. And look, you know, Ken Paxson, you

630
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 4: said he is out Trump Trump. Ken Paxson, like Trump

631
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 4: has been impeached. Ken Paxton, like Trump has been indicted.

632
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 4: Ken Paxon has been accused of marital infidelity.

633
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: Right, not even I think accused.

634
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 4: My wife is divorcing him, act quote unquote on biblical grounds.

635
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 4: And so you know, Trump has seen that Ken Paxon

636
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 4: has staying power. He's seen that he was a loyalist.

637
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 4: Ken Paxon was the guy pushing to overturn the twenty

638
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 4: twenty election, one of the biggest proponents of the lie

639
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 4: that the election was stolen. And John Cornyn was a

640
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 4: skeptic of that issue at that time. And so for Trump,

641
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 4: it's not natural that he'd be a cornn guy. Except

642
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 4: for the political calculation that most people see. Cornyn is

643
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,239
Speaker 4: less vulnerable to losing a red state than Paxton, who

644
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 4: has that whole history.

645
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 1: Right, I mean, it does feel to me like the

646
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: idea that that political calculus still works is kind of

647
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: I think a little. Okay, there were so many things

648
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about, and I don't

649
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: have that much time, So I want you to talk

650
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 1: next about what's happening in the Iowa center race.

651
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 5: So this is an under the radar race.

652
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 4: You know, if Democrats are talking about what are the

653
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 4: four seats they would most like to flip to win

654
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 4: the Senate, this is not in that top four.

655
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 5: This is maybe five, six, seven.

656
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 4: And the Democrats have a primary there between Zach Walls,

657
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 4: who's a state senator and Josh Turk, who's a state representative.

658
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 4: And a lot of national Democrats see Josh Turk and

659
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 4: they love his political profile and they think this is

660
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 4: the kind of candidate who could potentially make this state

661
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 4: more competitive. And what they like about him is that,

662
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 4: you know, he doesn't look like a regular state legislator.

663
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 4: He is in a wheelchair. He was born with spina bifida,

664
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 4: and he was a Paralympian twice and a gold medalist

665
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 4: for the United States men's wheelchair basketball team. And so

666
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 4: the problem is he has basically raised very little money.

667
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 4: Is four hundred thousand dollars cash on hand not enough

668
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 4: to wage a real campaign in the state. And so

669
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 4: what happened this week is an outside national group called

670
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 4: vote Vets, which typically backs veterans, announced a one week

671
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 4: ad by but suggested all but suggested there's way more

672
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 4: than that of eight hundred thousand dollars to lift Josh

673
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 4: Turk in the state. And the hope is, can we

674
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 4: get a guy that we see as potentially more electable

675
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 4: because of his personal story? And vote Vets is, okay,

676
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 4: why are you endorsing and embracing a person who's not

677
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 4: a veteran And the reason he has spina bifida is

678
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 4: that his father served in Vietnam and was exposed Agent

679
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 4: Orange and that that is apparently the cause of why

680
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 4: Josh Turk was been in a wheelchairw his whole life.

681
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny because we interviewed Josh Turk and

682
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: he's really good. He's a very compelling speaker. I remember,

683
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 1: as someone who interviews a lot of state legislators who

684
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 1: are often not really compelling speakers, I was really impressed

685
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: by him. Okay, so let's talk about the Illinois primary

686
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: for the Senate seat. We've talked about it quite a

687
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 1: lot on this podcast. It was last week. It was

688
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 1: a big deal. It meant a lot for the government. Pritzkerr.

689
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: Because it was his lieutenant governor and it was his pack,

690
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 1: and it was this It was that I want you

691
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: to talk about the sort of a pack of it.

692
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, beyond the center race in Illinois, there were four

693
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 4: house races where Apack was a major player, and they

694
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 4: spent us sums of money and in all but one

695
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 4: of them hid where the money was coming from until

696
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 4: after the election, and they had a mixed record. They

697
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 4: won two of those races, they lost two of those races.

698
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,280
Speaker 4: But the signature race, the race that drew the most attention,

699
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 4: wound up with the candidate that a pack had not supported,

700
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 4: that they had spent a million dollars plus against. Then

701
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 4: they'd spent four million dollars trying to lift somebody else up,

702
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 4: and then they pivoted at the end to try to

703
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 4: snuff out an even more left wing candidate. And what

704
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 4: the race really did show was the limits of their

705
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 4: money and the limits of their money when voters knew

706
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 4: who was spending that money. And it's going to be

707
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 4: really interesting to see how that plays out in the future.

708
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 4: You know, I wrote about the sort of reconsiderations after

709
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 4: the fact, and one of the that struck me looking

710
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 4: at the demographics of the four congressional races they played in,

711
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 4: is APAC was least successful in the most educated districts.

712
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 4: Where they lost is the place where a majority of

713
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 4: voters had a college degree. And those college educated primary voters,

714
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 4: they are more likely to be paying attention to who's

715
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,800
Speaker 4: paying for their ads because they are just more engaged

716
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 4: on that type of thing. And so it'll be interesting

717
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 4: to watch in these coming races, potentially big Senate campaigns

718
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 4: in Michigan, a bunch of house races. Where does APAC play,

719
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 4: How does it play in Illinois? They tried to route

720
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 4: the money before the election through groups that didn't formally

721
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 4: have a tie to them, and only afterwards they say, okay, yeah, that.

722
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 5: Was all of our money.

723
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 4: And you know, there's something about secrecy that voters tend

724
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 4: not to like. And it's a really hard task if

725
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 4: you're a candidate to raise the profile of money and

726
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 4: raise the profile of who's paying for the ads. But

727
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 4: if you're able to do it successfully. It is the

728
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 4: kind of thing that voters don't like. They don't like

729
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 4: outside groups intervening in their race, and it shows a

730
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 4: little bit of a shift on the Democratic Party's position

731
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 4: on Israel, which has been shifting pretty rapidly since the

732
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 4: attack on Israel of October seventh, twenty twenty three.

733
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 1: I want you to pull back and make this make

734
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 1: sense in regards to Elon Musk and the Wisconsin judge

735
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: race where he came in and people didn't like it.

736
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 1: Is it fair to extrapolate from this that people don't

737
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 1: like big money in politics? Because I don't think that's

738
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 1: the message. But there certainly is a message here. It

739
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 1: certain causes like I mean, think of all the elections

740
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 1: that we've grown up with where there was, you know,

741
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: a super pack. Does this mean more than just what

742
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 1: it looks like on the outside?

743
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 4: People always say they don't like big money in politics.

744
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 4: They also say they don't like negative advertising. You know

745
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 4: what people respond to big money spending on negative advertising? Right,

746
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,839
Speaker 4: So it is true in evact that if you ask

747
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 4: a poll of anybody, do you like this group spending

748
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 4: money in this race? The answers always overwhelmingly know what

749
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 4: I think is interesting about what happened in Illinois and

750
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 4: a couple of these house races is that the candidates

751
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 4: were able to make the spending such a big issue

752
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 4: that it became part of the race. And that doesn't

753
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 4: always happen, and that is absolutely what happened with Elon

754
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 4: musk spending in the judge race in Wisconsin. It was

755
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 4: the central argument of the candidates. And this came at

756
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 4: the moment where Elon Musk was a peak player in

757
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,399
Speaker 4: federal politics, right he was in the administration.

758
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 5: But if you think.

759
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 4: Back to twenty twenty four, Elon Musk was spending tons

760
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 4: of money, setting records for how much money any individual

761
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 4: has ever spent an election. You know, I spent time

762
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,760
Speaker 4: in Pennsylvania, where he had focused his efforts in twenty

763
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 4: twenty four. Voters were not bringing up Elon Musk. They

764
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 4: were seeing the ads, but they didn't know who was

765
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:53,959
Speaker 4: paying for them, and they didn't care who was paying

766
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 4: for them. And so that's generally the case.

767
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 5: Right. My rule of them, and I've.

768
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,439
Speaker 4: Covered money in politics for years, is the bigger the race,

769
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 4: the less the money matters.

770
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 5: What was interesting to me is that these were not

771
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 5: big races.

772
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 4: You know, these were house races where typically big money

773
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 4: makes a huge difference, and they were able to offset

774
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 4: the money with some messaging. And that's what's a little

775
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 4: bit interesting and intriguing. And look, you're in New York.

776
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 4: I'm in New York. There's going to be a big

777
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 4: race here between Dan Goldman and Brad Lander congressional seat.

778
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 4: And this is another one of those districts, which is

779
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 4: a higher income, higher education district. We don't know where

780
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 4: Apax super Pac is going to play, but this is

781
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 4: a likely place because there's a pretty big gulf between

782
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 4: Brad Lander and Dan Goldman. And if they do, how

783
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 4: do they play and how to voters receive it?

784
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 5: I think that's going to be an interesting test. And

785
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:44,800
Speaker 5: Ast mentioned this earlier.

786
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 4: The Michigan Center race too, is going to be one

787
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 4: of those other potential places where Hailey Stevens, a more

788
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 4: moderate Democrat, has been a favorite. They spent a lot

789
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 4: of money to help get her to Congress. Well, they

790
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 4: come in big, and how will voters respond in Michigan.

791
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Michigan's a really good example because Ellie

792
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 1: Stevens is a member of Congress. She is the least

793
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:11,720
Speaker 1: charismatic of the crew. She has the humor or nod

794
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 1: she has.

795
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 4: I think some potential that folks underestimate to lean into

796
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 4: the anti charisma, right, Like Maler mc morrow is like

797
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 4: absolutely charismatic, and Abdul I'll say it is absolutely charismatic.

798
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 4: But you can run it as a candidate who's like,

799
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 4: that's not me and this is what they've tried to

800
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 4: do so far.

801
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 5: You know, we'll see whether it works.

802
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 4: I'm the Michigan manufacturing gal who cares about cars and

803
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 4: like it's a challenge, right. I think that we're seeing

804
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,240
Speaker 4: a shift in democratic politics is what do people value?

805
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 5: And you know it's been this truism.

806
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 4: Okay, Twitter is in real life and X isn't real life,

807
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 4: and that's absolutely true, but the gulf between them is shifting.

808
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 1: You still have to be able to do sentences. So yeah, totally,

809
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 1: Which is to say, we've had Mallory in the pod

810
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 1: and we've had Abdyla in the pod and it's stark. Okay.

811
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 1: So actually have two more questions for you. One is

812
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: Janet Mills has the blessing of Schumer. She would be

813
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 1: the oldest Senate freshman ever. She is running these new

814
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 1: ads talk us through this.

815
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Janet Mills on paper is sort of your

816
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:23,760
Speaker 4: perfect senate candidate, two term governor, a woman relatively popular

817
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,760
Speaker 4: with voters, exactly the kind of person the Democratic Party

818
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 4: traditionally would want to put up against a Susan Collins.

819
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 4: And the party base has really fallen in love with

820
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 4: somebody else altogether, which is Graham Plattner, who is a

821
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:38,879
Speaker 4: veteran and you know, as they repeat over and over,

822
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 4: an oyster farmer, and has run sort of a progressive

823
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,280
Speaker 4: campaign but really an anti establishment campaign.

824
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 5: And is ahead in a lot of the polling.

825
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,359
Speaker 4: There was a poll today where he's far ahead, and

826
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 4: so Mills is rolled out I think now today a

827
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 4: third in a series of just blistering ads using some

828
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 4: of Graham Plattner's past comments on Red, some of which

829
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 4: he's apologized for, to attack him over comments he made

830
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 4: about women and rape. The ads are structured in such

831
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:08,800
Speaker 4: way they tells you there's going to be a whole

832
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 4: series of these and this is probably the single best

833
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 4: opportunity for Democrats to pick up a Senate race in

834
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 4: the country, and they are now faced with a brutal

835
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 4: primary for months before either of them get a chance

836
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 4: to take on Susan Collins.

837
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, really absolutely incredible stuff. My last question for you.

838
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: Texas had this very acrimonious Democratic primary. Have the candidates

839
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: made peace Crockett and tell Rigo. Are they doing a

840
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 1: road show? Is there any sign that that has healed.

841
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 4: That's a great question that they don't really know the

842
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 4: answer to. They have not done a show. There has

843
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 4: not been any kind of joint kumbaya moments. It was

844
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 4: a little bit brutal at the end, and Crockett was

845
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,919
Speaker 4: a little bit leary of saying she would definitely back

846
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,439
Speaker 4: tall Rico. But there has not been any acrimony since

847
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 4: the primary. Don't think there's been a together yet, but

848
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 4: there's been no continuing on which sometimes happens. She's basically

849
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 4: said she's moving on. Look, she's a talented politician and she.

850
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 1: Has a congressional seat. It's not that she's gone any

851
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 1: sid at least for.

852
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 5: The next few months. Right.

853
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 4: She had to leave her seat to run for Senate,

854
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 4: but she could certainly run for office again in the future.

855
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 1: Shane, so interesting, Thank you, thank you, thank you.

856
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 5: Thanks for making the time.

857
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 1: No moment.

858
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 2: Jesse Cannon, Molly, you know what the people thirsted for

859
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 2: when they elected mister Trump.

860
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 1: More cancer, more.

861
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 2: For baldehyde and CARCINOGENSID just everything, you know, But that's

862
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 2: really what we were all voting for. Spirit Like, yes,

863
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 2: mister Trump ejected into my vades.

864
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was maha, make America cancer again.

865
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 5: Yes. So.

866
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 1: A new trove of chemical producers and US Environmental Protection

867
00:43:55,880 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 1: Agency documents reveal an elaborate industry operation that killed strong

868
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:05,919
Speaker 1: regulations around for mile to hide a highly toxic carcinogen

869
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,839
Speaker 1: widely used in everyday goods from cosmetics to furniture two

870
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: craft supplies. Did you want cancer lipstick? Because you got it?

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Speaker 2: I might start wearing it.

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Speaker 1: The Trump EPA in late twenty twenty five moved to

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00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 1: undo and replace the regulations because that's what they do.

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00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:30,800
Speaker 1: They want to deregulate. It's very bad, it's not good,

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Speaker 1: and there's not any fucking thing any of us can do,

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Speaker 1: at least for today. That's it for this episode of

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Speaker 1: Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday

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00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 1: to hear the best minds and politics make sense of

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00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 1: all this chaos. If you enjoy this podcast, please send

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00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 1: it to a friend and keep the conversation going. Thanks

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00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 1: for listening,