WEBVTT - Surgical Solutions CEO on Covid-19 Vaccine 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.280 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser. Every day 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.200 we're bringing you the latest news from the worlds of 0:00:05.240 --> 0:00:08.920 business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:12.160 in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.000 the power of Business Week reporters and editors. You can 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:18.720 download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:21.200 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:24.000 pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sort of watch 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:27.360 us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:29.639 Alex and I were just chatting about a store on 0:00:29.640 --> 0:00:32.680 the Bloomberg about the pressures on healthcare workers here as 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:35.920 we go into a second and third wave here, and 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:39.800 it must just be just the ongoing cumulative pressures and 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:43.559 the on these healthcare workers is just extraordinary. Our next 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:45.760 guests can help us talk about that a little bit. 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:49.440 In the overall home healthcare services space. ALYSSA. Wrap is 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:53.120 a chief executive officer of Surgical Solutions. He joins us 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:56.040 on the phone from Deerfield, Illinois. Lissa, thanks so much 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:58.360 for joining us. I know you've got your company has 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:02.000 over to employees on the frontlaw lines of this crisis. Here, 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:04.560 give us a sense of what you're hearing from them. 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.120 I mean, this is month ten, and it looks like 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:09.520 we're gonna have a couple three more difficult months ahead 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.160 of us. How are they doing well? Thanks for asking 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.399 and thanks for having me back, Paul and Alex. You know, 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:17.480 it's been a crazy and wild year for frontline healthcare workers. 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:20.200 I was looking this morning at our volume of the 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:23.080 kind of the number of surgeries they've supported from November 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:26.720 of eight thousand and months that's then dipped and plummeted 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:29.240 to two thousand in April, and starting in July and 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:31.720 August it was back and now we're up above a 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:35.320 hundred and fifteen of our annual volume from last year 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.959 because people are rescheduling those procedures that were canceled or 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:41.400 trying to get them in before their year in deductibles 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:44.480 are refreshed. So what is how would I feel or 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:48.200 you feel if we had been on that roller coaster ride, exhausted, 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:52.400 a little burnt out, motivated by the mission of the 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:55.960 work and serving the end patient, and anxiously awaiting the vaccine. 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.800 It's been a heck of a year and it feels 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:00.840 like it's going to be medium worse in some ways. 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:03.120 We have this new strain of COVID that was discovered 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.040 in the UK that hasn't been reported here yet, but 0:02:06.160 --> 0:02:08.639 by all admissions like, there's no way it can't get 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.480 here at some point right where it might be here already. 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:15.160 What are you hearing about that from your online workers? Yeah, 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:18.279 so what I am hearing is that people are cautiously 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:21.919 optimistic that the current vaccines will vaccinate against the current 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:27.840 strain and those uh less virulent but more fast spreading 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:32.320 strains or mutations, so they're not as afraid of the mutations. 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:35.120 What we're all concerned about for our two or fifty 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.240 people in thirty five hospitals in nine states is when 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:40.640 are they going to get the vaccine? And there's they're 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:43.000 in the front line to get it in January, but 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:45.040 they're not there yet. Yeah, that's kind of where I 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:46.520 want to go. Well, listen, I think you know, and 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:49.679 we all in the eu furia of the last month 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:52.880 or so of these uh fives and modern vaccines. You know, 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:55.760 the number that I seem to have been the acceptable 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.440 number out there is maybe twenty million vaccinations by the 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:02.400 end of count I think we're nowhere near that. What 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:05.720 is your sense of of how this is rolling out 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:09.160 in some of the early days here, Great question, Paul. 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:12.600 So what we are seeing is at about of each 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:18.000 hospitals eligible staff is getting vaccinated or has been already. 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.359 What does that mean. You're an e ER worker, you're 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:22.960 an I c U worker, or you're a surgeon, you 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:26.000 have probably been vaccinated. If you're in a major metropolis 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:28.440 or a market that has access to the vaccine. If 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.680 you're the other of the essential workers, you're getting it next, 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:34.679 but you probably haven't had that first shot yet, by 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:38.640 and large, So that's great that we're making progress. What 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:42.240 we need is more progress faster. Um, are you hearing 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:45.480 anything about individuals not wanting to take it? In the 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:50.240 healthcare profession? It's interesting and our our team is you know, 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:54.400 frontline support for minimally invasive surgeries, and we have a 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.800 roster of vaccines and immunizations our team has to get 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:00.640 before they go into any hospital, and the hospital policy 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:04.360 about vaccines is what governs ours for our team. And 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:07.040 so in these hospitals where it's required of their staff, 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:10.120 there's really not been any pushback of when our team 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:12.440 is getting it. If anything. It's the contrary, are we 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:15.120 on the list to get it when when our run 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:18.240 of essential worker gets vaccinated in the answer is yes, 0:04:18.360 --> 0:04:20.600 I'm sure there will be pushback, But when you are 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:24.159 on the front line, UM, and you are knowing how 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:27.680 exposed you've been, I haven't seen it yet with our team. 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:31.159 So Alyssa, let's switch gears a little bit um PPE. 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:34.719 That was such a big problem in the initial wave 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:38.320 back in March in April, and it really underscored kind 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:40.960 of the risk to the supply chain, if you will. Well, 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:44.200 here we are fast forward ten months later. Where are 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:47.240 we in terms of P p P within the healthcare 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:50.200 system to deal with these rising numbers? I can I 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:53.599 can speak to this anecdotally, not nationwide, but anecdotally. We 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:56.880 saw a dearth of PP in all major markets when 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:59.520 this first hit, like everybody did, and then those major 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:02.000 metropolo these again New York City, Chicago, l A, San 0:05:02.040 --> 0:05:05.600 Francisco stockpiled and so those markets are now flushed with PPE. 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:08.320 But where we're seeing a shortage now uh eight, nine, 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:10.520 ten months later is in more rural markets and more 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:13.200 small regional hospitals. That's where our folks have said they're 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:15.400 starting to see a decline, and we have our own 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:17.720 corporate stockpiled just in case our people made it. We 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:19.760 want them armed with the right artillery to go to battle, 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:22.640 so to speak. But we've heard the pinch the greatest 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:26.479 so far in Rule America, not in the major metropolis, 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:32.240 just totally. Also, what area right now is worse off that? 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:34.640 I don't know. I think that it depends how you 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:37.359 define where's we're soft right. I think that the major 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:40.479 metropolis are gonna see higher numbers by by definition, but 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:44.240 it's all about preparedness and also the rate of positivity. 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:48.119 So the first wave in the Q two hit those 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:51.599 dense urban markets the highest, where the smaller markets were 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:54.479 not as scathed. And here we are. We saw a 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:57.960 big pop in those secondary in tertiary markets in October 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:01.520 November because that's when it hit. That first wave was 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:04.040 was really their first wave. And so now it's I 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:05.720 don't want to stay calming to a dull roar. The 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.160 numbers are the numbers. We all see them. But it's 0:06:08.560 --> 0:06:11.719 I think people are more prepared and I'm just hopeful 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:15.200 that the vaccine can come in a more widespread manner 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:17.040 before there. As you said earlier, a third, fourth, and 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:19.960 fifth wave of this thing. So listen, just in the 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:22.800 next twenty seconds, where are your people mostly deployed. Are 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:27.239 they smaller, more rural markets maybe where they're understaffed. No, Actually, 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:29.200 we have forty of our team in New York City, 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:30.960 and then we also have them in big, big markets 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:33.559 like Houston, and then uh, you know, a large number 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:36.640 in Kentucky and Louisiana and upstate New York and other places. 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:39.720 But now we're we sort of see both extremes, the 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.880 large urban markets in the in the smaller regional ones. Hey, listen, 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:44.839 thanks so much for joining us. Again. We always appreciate 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:48.279 your perspective here on this unfolding stories that moves from 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:49.680 you know, just trying to deal with it on a 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:53.240 day to day basis, to therapeutics and vaccines. So we 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:57.480 appreciate your thoughts and listen. Rap Chief executive Officer Surgical Solutions, 0:06:57.560 --> 0:07:01.279 joining us on the phone from the Deerfield, Illinois, and again, 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:05.440 Alex interesting, We're gonna be seeing how this vaccination rollout 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:09.080 plays out over the coming weeks and months, and hopefully 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:11.680 it can go smoothly so we can do it as 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:16.080 efficiently as possible. Well, we did finally get that fiscal 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:20.000 stimulus bill passed and sign although it was an ugly 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:23.040 process over the last several days. You had weird coalitions. 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.520 On one day you had the president with the Democrats 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:28.880 and you have the Republicans and not with their president. 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:31.240 But it all got said, all got done there in 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:33.440 the end, let's get the latest. Let's dig under the hood. 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.600 We can do that with Laura Davison, congressional tax reporter 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.000 for Bloomberg News. She joined us on the phone from Washington, 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:42.440 d C. So, Laura, we did get a plan. Talk 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:44.960 to us about the stimulus payment that seems to be 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:50.400 the real bone of contention here between all parties involved. Yes, 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:52.680 so similar to the Cares Act backs in March, this 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:56.240 still has another stimulus payment, this time six dollars for 0:07:56.280 --> 0:08:00.200 adults and four children. Uh. Last time it was college 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:03.400 for adults, five dred for children. But otherwise the eligibility 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:06.440 is is relatively similar. Um, if you make less than 0:08:06.520 --> 0:08:08.760 seventy five thousand dollars as an individual, you'll get that 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.520 full payment. Twice that a hundred and fifty thousand dollars 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:13.120 for a married couple, you'll get that full amount. And 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:15.320 there's a phase out, so uh, you know for about 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:18.960 twenty dollars. On top of that, there's a you'll get 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:22.680 a diminishing amount below that six hundred dollars. Uh. But 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:24.600 this is still very much a live issue. There is 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.320 a vote planned in the House of Representatives tonight that 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:29.920 would increase that amount to two thousand dollars, both for 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:34.559 adults and children. Unclear how it will fare in the House, However, 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:38.480 the prospect for this passing Congress is not likely. The 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:40.560 Senate is not likely to bring us up, or if 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:42.080 if they were to it, it would like to not 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:46.440 pass that chamber is two thousand dollars on the table 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:50.760 for like three weeks from now, You know, that is 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:53.199 a good question. Obviously there will be a change of 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:57.760 administration uh come next month. The question really hangs the 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:00.120 bounce of you know, what happens in Georgia. Uh, is 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:02.760 that runoff election for both Georgia seats That will determine 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:06.240 the control of the Senate UM and that will really 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:08.480 sort of be a deciding factor in terms of, you know, 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:11.920 what can get done legislatively, what sort of political appointees 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:15.240 UM are able to to pass the Senate and enjoining 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:18.880 Biden administration. So there's a lot of question mark about 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:20.960 you know, not only you know, what can be done politically, 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:22.800 but also what the state of the economy and the 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:24.800 virus and the vaccine will be and what the what 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.040 the calls will be for in terms of what parts 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.720 of the economy need boosting at that point. So, Laura, 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:33.040 you've covered this Congress thing for a while, what do 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:37.359 you make of the seemingly lack of coordination and cohesion 0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:42.960 between the White House uh, their Republican colleagues, and then 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:46.200 the Democratic Party just seem like the President really pulled 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:50.400 the wrong out from under his own party. He he 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:53.000 really did. You know, Congresses is known for chaos, but 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:56.280 even by Congress of standards, this was quite bizarre. Um. 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:59.839 It has created some really weird factions where you had Democrats, 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:01.360 you when when President Trump said, hey, you know, I 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:03.120 want two thousand dollars, they were like, great, We've been 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:05.120 saying this for months, let's take a vote on it. 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:08.120 And Republicans were put in a very awkward position of, 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:11.040 you know, having negotiated actually for a lower stimulus payment 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:15.719 rather than a higher one. Yeah, that they're definitely when 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:17.520 I saw the headline last week was on vacation. I 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:21.200 was like, wait, what happened? Usually go away, nothing happens, 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:24.000 you can back, everything is the same. Um, So what 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:27.000 else is in this bill, um that we need to 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:29.320 know about. I feel like we've glossed over kind of 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:31.920 what's happening for the sectors that need to be bailed 0:10:31.920 --> 0:10:35.320 out again that are the ones actually rallying today. Yeah. 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:37.679 So there is a new round of p p P 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:40.680 that Paycheck Protection Program money UH to kind of go 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:43.559 out to two small businesses across the board. They specifically 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:47.080 targeted some money to two very small businesses minority owned. UH. 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.640 There's a lot of money for for stages for for 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:52.640 live performance venues, which had lobby hard saying, hey, look 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:55.240 we've been closed for months and really unable to do anything. 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:58.800 There's some additional airline aid UM. And there's also very 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:02.600 importantly another round of unemployment benefits, these sort of enhanced 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.200 federal benefits to to help people who are who are 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.560 out of work and kind of keep them afloat UH 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.600 for for the coming months. So on the p PP side, 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:13.160 Lard there was some concern and some criticism last time 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:15.840 that it didn't really get to the small and midsized 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.800 businesses that really needed it. For example, if he didn't 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:22.720 have a relationship with a bank, Uh, it was very, 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.000 very difficult to get the funds. Is there any modification 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:26.760 to the plan this time? As far as we can tell, 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:30.040 there's there's several things that they did, um and and 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.240 the advocates who were pushing for those changes are hopeful 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:34.520 that that small you know, those very small businesses, we 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:36.520 will be able to access the funds. They changed with 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:39.679 the incentive structures for the banks who were actually making 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:42.079 these loans, processing these loans, so that they wouldn't necessarily 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:44.840 benefit or you know, be incentivized to take only big 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:47.120 loans and not take small loans. There's a certain part 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.640 of the money that's earmarked for these very small loans. 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:52.520 Um and they've also just made the process a lot 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:55.440 easier for the businesses applying. There is some concern that 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:57.800 there were you know, just there is some reputational risk 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:00.160 uh and with the program of people of her that 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.760 it's complicated that it's hard that the rules change, and 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.080 some businesses may be scared. Though there's a lot of 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.120 efforts sort of in the small business community development world 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:10.440 trying to get businesses who are who are hurting to 0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:13.160 go ahead and apply for this money. Y Lara, thanks 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.680 so much for joining us. We really appreciate it clarifying 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:17.760 what's coming out of Washington here in terms of that 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:22.040 fiscal stimulus. Laura Davison, congressional tax reporter for Bloomberg News. 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:24.199 She joins us on the phone from Washington, d C. 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.640 And there's a lot of moving parts there, Alex. But 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:28.480 I guess this is a good first step, and then 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.000 we'll have to just wait and see what the Biden administration, 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.120 what strep strategy that they want to take in terms 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:36.720 of fiscal stimulus. Presumably they're going to want to be 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.280 more aggressive, your boy, I guess we'll have to wait 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:41.199 and see what happens, certainly in Washington, d c. Uh 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:43.880 to make it the makeup of Congress. You're listening to 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:49.000 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser on Bloomberg Radio. Let's 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.920 take some time and talk about the global oil business. 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.360 When you think about all the commodities after that have been, 0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:58.000 you know, swinging around during this pandemic. On news as 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.680 it relates to the pandemic, metrics as it relates to vaccines, 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:04.320 crude oil has been one of the most actives, and 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.920 clearly it's a bell weather and it's a reflects on 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:11.120 investors belief about when this economy will begin to open. 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:12.840 Let's get the latest. We can do that with the 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:16.319 professor Brenda Schaefer. She's from the She's a research faculty 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.920 member of the U S. Naval post Graduate School, also 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.640 a fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center. She 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:23.880 joins us on the phone from Washington, d C. Professor 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.280 of Schaeffer, thanks so much for joining us here. You know, 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:29.160 we've seen oil kind of rally up to the high 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.600 forties here in terms of w t I, but it 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:35.880 really seems to be driven by demand or the perceptions 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.840 of demand going forward, as opposed to supply a little bit. 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:41.400 We know it's a commodity and it's a demand supply issue, 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:44.199 but it just feels like it's being driven by demand. 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:46.839 How do you view the global oil markets right here? 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:50.360 Thank you? Yes, and I think that there is I mean, 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.240 we're backed up to um the pre COVID, you know, 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:55.640 oil oil price rate, you know, bent back up to 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.560 the rates of of March um. So it's definitely a 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:01.280 confidence in the direction of that with the general economic 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.680 trends are going UM. But I think that there's two 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.000 big picture trends that are going to emerge post COVID, 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:10.480 and it's pretty clear to anyone you know, trading in oil. UM. 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:13.280 One is that we're not going back to the same 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:16.839 rates of public transportation. So even after the vaccine, after 0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:19.440 people return to work, UM, they're not going to return 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.440 to the same rates of use of public transport. Transportation 0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:25.160 that that fuer will probably linger for a long time. 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.040 And the second is the use of plastics. So if 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:32.000 we would almost already factored in two thousand eighteen two 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:35.960 thousand nineteen sort of a general global decline and demand 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:40.000 for plastics, UM with you know, different environmental goals, UM, 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.720 you know, and and and commercial goals, UM, it's clear 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:46.760 that plastics demand will be high. And plastics, you know, 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:49.120 the main is a sector that uses a lot of 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:52.120 oil to produce it. So these are two things that 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:54.960 won't change that you know, dependent on you know, regardless 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:58.359 of what happens going forward with the pandemic, with the economy, 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:00.640 we're not going to see return earned to the same 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:04.280 levels of public transportation or or a decline in demand 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:09.560 for plastics. Can other things offset that so diesel, for example, 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:14.280 or other petro cam products. UM. Yes, I think the 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.080 specifics you know for plastics that you know right now 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.280 with current technologies, UM, I don't think we'll see, you know, 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.480 a big, big change in that trend. But there are 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:27.360 on the supply side a couple more short term things 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.440 that could affect the market. UM. One, we have OPEC 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:35.400 plus meeting again in January and reevaluating their strategy. It 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:39.680 looks like Russia actually wants to up production, which would 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.880 mean UM, you know, downward pressure on the price UM. 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:45.880 And this is in order to preempt US shale from 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:48.680 recovering and you know and coming back in in a 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.280 big way to the market. And then a second big 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:55.240 question mark is that UM, if the incoming Biden administration 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:58.440 will quickly go back to an agreement with Ran will 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:02.680 allow more Iranian oil to the market, how quick Iran 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:05.560 manages to up its production if that takes place, So 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.840 on the supply side, there could be more oils coming 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:12.440 into the market UM in early one that would affect 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.840 the price UM, but those bigger issues on the demand 0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:19.320 side probably won't won't be moved. So, professor, do you 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.720 think we've some people are you know, raise the issue 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:24.800 prior to the pandemic that perhaps the world had seen 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:29.080 peak oil. What is your view there? Um, as my 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:31.280 students know over the years, I don't. I don't believe 0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:34.440 in peak anything when it comes to oil. So so, 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:38.640 you know, I mean basically having a finite of anything fine, 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:42.640 whether it's finite supply or finite demand. I think it's 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:46.120 very uh you know, it's very difficult to conceive of that. 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:48.680 So it used to be we were talking about peak oil. 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.840 We meant about you know, peak supplies, and that was 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:53.680 completely debunked. You know, we were we got you know, 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:56.640 we were we were awash and oil from from from 0:16:56.680 --> 0:17:02.680 two thousand fourteen to about out. Um. Uh so debunks that, 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:04.680 and then then we had to have a new peak theory, 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:08.359 which was peak demand. Um. Yeah, I you know, I 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:11.359 see it doesn't it's much ago. We often talk about 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:16.000 energy transition, energy transformation as if it's a fact. Sure, 0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:20.359 many things are happening, but I'm still in the transportation sector, 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:25.560 especially with this new uh lingering fear of public transportation, 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:28.920 I think we're far away from uh, you know, decoupling 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.920 our activities from oil. In the transportation sector. I mean 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:35.320 totally right now. I mean look at like SUV sales 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:39.800 or bananas. I mean, evs are great. Okay, you're gonna 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:42.880 have more UM subsidies, you're gonna push them out, et cetera. 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:45.240 Maybe you'll have some charging stations, but people just really 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:48.439 want to buy SUVs. UM just and we'll get to 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:51.360 the specific of the energy plan UM that was passed 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.439 in a moment. But I mean, does gasoline have a 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:58.560 have a real life here, real future UM you know, 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:01.840 you know, yeah, definitely if you again, if they it's 0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:03.880 it's not even I agree with your point about it's 0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:07.280 UM larger cars, but we're even seeing sort of a 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:10.960 revival of the used cars and uh, the industry of 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:14.000 you know, car parts and and repairs, because the same 0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:16.639 people that were riding the bus and the metro UM, 0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:18.399 they might not be buying a new you know, a 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.760 new car. So so it's really a renaissance of those 0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:26.000 industries UM as well. And uh yes, and and and 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:29.600 still not you know, people can't afford uh, there's the 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:32.600 same kind of people that are moving from public transportation 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:36.480 to to private vehicle. UM, you know, probably can't afford 0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:40.520 electric cars regardless of the subsidy. And then quickly, are 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:42.359 we going to see a point where we don't have 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:43.960 enough oil for the demand that we're going to meet 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:46.679 over the next two years or three years. Well, we 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:49.240 will have enough oil, but it might come at a price. 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:52.080 And that's why um there, there's there is a big 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:54.520 chance that you know, what has happened over the past 0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:57.520 the past year and even more or less over the 0:18:57.560 --> 0:18:59.920 past uh six years, when there's spent a lot of 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.320 many periods of low oil prices that there haven't been 0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:05.639 a lot of um uh, there haven't been a lot 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:09.600 of investments investments in new oil. So so now the 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:13.000 demand is going up, there isn't necessarily new production there 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:14.760 to meet the demands. What will happen to you know, 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.800 prices will go up. A big question mark is how 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:22.840 fast US shale production will uh will reappear because it 0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:27.920 basically it has about the ability relatively to swing back 0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:30.760 faster than a lot of other places um and that 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:34.160 could be a modifying impact on on on the global 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:36.640 oil price. But you know, it's not clear how much 0:19:36.720 --> 0:19:40.720 investor appetite uh there is to go back to the 0:19:40.760 --> 0:19:43.280 shale because some most more people have lost money on 0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:46.200 that then than Professor I want to continue discussion and 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:49.040 kind of go to the fact that we are going 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:52.399 to have a new administration in the White House in 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:55.760 a little more than three weeks. What does that mean 0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:59.080 for the U. S energy policy? Do you believe what 0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:02.280 if you heard from the Biden campaign and maybe what 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:06.440 we know about his past policymaking. Um, yeah, thank you. 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:09.760 Um yeah, you know, I think that the ability of 0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:14.359 the federal government in general to uh influence some at 0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:18.520 least US energy production is limited relatively to the States, 0:20:18.560 --> 0:20:20.720 you know. So we debated a lot, we talked about 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:22.760 it a lot, but but at the end of the day, 0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:26.200 you know, most of the regulation of US energy production 0:20:26.280 --> 0:20:29.520 is by you know, by the state structure. So um, 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.680 you know, clearly there's going to be on the formal level, Um, 0:20:32.720 --> 0:20:37.000