1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:15,796 Speaker 1: Pushkin. 2 00:00:20,636 --> 00:00:24,116 Speaker 2: So one thing that chapter one is about is the 3 00:00:24,116 --> 00:00:27,876 Speaker 2: fact that if a lobster is defeated in a dominance battle, 4 00:00:28,516 --> 00:00:32,036 Speaker 2: you can give it essentially antidepressants, and it will fight again. 5 00:00:34,036 --> 00:00:39,556 Speaker 1: There's a Canadian like me, my age, almost exactly, who 6 00:00:39,596 --> 00:00:43,356 Speaker 1: teaches my favorite subject, psychology at my alma mater, the 7 00:00:43,436 --> 00:00:46,556 Speaker 1: University of Toronto. His name is Jordan Peterson. 8 00:00:50,036 --> 00:00:52,316 Speaker 2: If you want to understand a complex nervous system, it's 9 00:00:52,316 --> 00:00:55,196 Speaker 2: a good idea to understand a simple one first and 10 00:00:55,236 --> 00:00:57,516 Speaker 2: then sort of elaborate upwards. And it turns out that 11 00:00:57,996 --> 00:01:02,956 Speaker 2: seratonin governs status, emotional regulation, and posture in lobsters just 12 00:01:02,996 --> 00:01:04,996 Speaker 2: like it does in human beings, and so that would 13 00:01:04,996 --> 00:01:06,636 Speaker 2: just blew me away. 14 00:01:07,436 --> 00:01:10,676 Speaker 1: He wrote a very provocative self help book called Twelve 15 00:01:10,836 --> 00:01:15,276 Speaker 1: Rules for Life. Rule number one stand up straight with 16 00:01:15,316 --> 00:01:19,676 Speaker 1: your shoulders back. Rule number two treat yourself like someone 17 00:01:19,756 --> 00:01:23,516 Speaker 1: you are responsible for helping. Rule number twelve, pat a 18 00:01:23,636 --> 00:01:28,836 Speaker 1: cat when you encounter one on the street. Peterson's book 19 00:01:28,876 --> 00:01:31,516 Speaker 1: was a sensation, and soon all kinds of other people 20 00:01:31,556 --> 00:01:35,156 Speaker 1: were doing twelve rules, like the economist Tyler Cowen, whose 21 00:01:35,156 --> 00:01:38,036 Speaker 1: blog Marginal Revolution is the first thing I read every morning. 22 00:01:38,796 --> 00:01:42,676 Speaker 1: I particularly like Cowen's rule number seven, learn how to 23 00:01:42,836 --> 00:01:46,836 Speaker 1: learn from those who offend you every time you turn 24 00:01:46,876 --> 00:01:51,516 Speaker 1: a corner. Twelve rules the columnist Megan McCardell rule number three. 25 00:01:52,356 --> 00:01:57,076 Speaker 1: Always order one extra dish at a restaurant, an unfamiliar one. 26 00:01:57,156 --> 00:01:59,716 Speaker 1: You might like it, which would be splendid. If you 27 00:01:59,756 --> 00:02:02,836 Speaker 1: don't like it, all you lost was a couple of bucks. 28 00:02:03,796 --> 00:02:09,116 Speaker 1: The exercise of curiosity requires a risk, a sacrifice, a commitment. 29 00:02:09,596 --> 00:02:16,676 Speaker 1: I love that. Also, mccardle's rule number twelve. Always make 30 00:02:16,756 --> 00:02:19,556 Speaker 1: more dinner rolls than you think you can eat. For 31 00:02:19,596 --> 00:02:23,076 Speaker 1: some reason, dinner rolls loom much larger in our imaginations 32 00:02:23,396 --> 00:02:28,476 Speaker 1: than in our stomachs. Whoa Megan mccardal makes her own 33 00:02:28,476 --> 00:02:39,516 Speaker 1: dinner rolls. Everybody's doing twelve rules. Wait, I'm jealous. My 34 00:02:39,596 --> 00:02:42,556 Speaker 1: name is Malcolm Gladwell. You're listening to Revisionist History, my 35 00:02:42,636 --> 00:02:47,316 Speaker 1: podcast about things overlooked and misunderstood. This episode is about 36 00:02:47,596 --> 00:02:51,596 Speaker 1: Malcolm Gladwell's twelve Rules for a Living, my guiding principles. 37 00:02:51,996 --> 00:02:58,356 Speaker 1: My wisdom distilled. EXCEPT thought about this for like a month, 38 00:02:58,476 --> 00:03:01,676 Speaker 1: and I realized I don't have twelve rules. I just don't. 39 00:03:02,196 --> 00:03:05,236 Speaker 1: I mean, I have rules like the fact that I 40 00:03:05,276 --> 00:03:10,796 Speaker 1: only drink five liquids ever, water, tea, red wine, espresso, 41 00:03:10,836 --> 00:03:13,596 Speaker 1: and milk in some combination. But that's not a rule 42 00:03:13,636 --> 00:03:17,556 Speaker 1: for living. It's just pointlessly provocative. Self denial the least 43 00:03:17,556 --> 00:03:20,556 Speaker 1: attractive part of my personality. If you want a cocktail, 44 00:03:20,676 --> 00:03:23,756 Speaker 1: you should have a cocktail. I only have one rule, 45 00:03:24,796 --> 00:03:28,556 Speaker 1: pull the goalie. 46 00:03:32,516 --> 00:03:35,316 Speaker 3: What do you mean when you say you're obnoxious? Ah 47 00:03:35,396 --> 00:03:36,236 Speaker 3: the most specific. 48 00:03:37,396 --> 00:03:41,436 Speaker 4: If I found something funny which is still a disease 49 00:03:41,516 --> 00:03:46,516 Speaker 4: I have, I will say it, even if it's gets 50 00:03:46,516 --> 00:03:48,596 Speaker 4: me in some trouble. I never thought I was particularly cruel, 51 00:03:49,516 --> 00:03:50,716 Speaker 4: but I was a class cut up. 52 00:03:51,516 --> 00:03:53,716 Speaker 1: My one rule for living came to me from the 53 00:03:53,756 --> 00:03:57,516 Speaker 1: work of two people, Cliff Assness and Aaron Brown, both 54 00:03:57,556 --> 00:04:01,796 Speaker 1: philosophers of a sort and friends. This is Clifford Assnes. 55 00:04:02,076 --> 00:04:05,276 Speaker 1: He's in his mid fifties, bald Goate grew up middle class, 56 00:04:05,316 --> 00:04:06,636 Speaker 1: Jewish and Long Island. 57 00:04:06,836 --> 00:04:08,716 Speaker 4: I was in the honors classes, and I was the 58 00:04:08,756 --> 00:04:10,716 Speaker 4: cut up in the honors class. Whi's always a strange 59 00:04:10,716 --> 00:04:12,876 Speaker 4: thing to be. You don't think of those classes as 60 00:04:12,876 --> 00:04:13,316 Speaker 4: having one. 61 00:04:13,316 --> 00:04:13,916 Speaker 3: But we had him. 62 00:04:14,636 --> 00:04:18,156 Speaker 4: Wasn't always me too. We were not perfectly well behaved, 63 00:04:18,556 --> 00:04:23,796 Speaker 4: so obnoxious. I was tolerable, but I found myself extremely funny. 64 00:04:24,676 --> 00:04:27,916 Speaker 1: Now I should say that I didn't find Cliff Astness obnoxious, 65 00:04:28,196 --> 00:04:32,676 Speaker 1: he's delightful company. Instead, I suspect he is what psychologists 66 00:04:32,756 --> 00:04:41,076 Speaker 1: call disagreeable short digression. Psychologists believe that human personality can 67 00:04:41,116 --> 00:04:48,156 Speaker 1: be assessed along five dimensions extraversion, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience, 68 00:04:48,436 --> 00:04:54,156 Speaker 1: and finally agreeableness. My sense of Cliff Astness, he's at 69 00:04:54,196 --> 00:04:57,516 Speaker 1: the low end of that last trait number five. He's 70 00:04:57,636 --> 00:05:01,556 Speaker 1: low agreeable disagreeable, which is not the same as obnoxious. 71 00:05:01,676 --> 00:05:04,636 Speaker 1: It's rather the quality of not being depended on or 72 00:05:04,676 --> 00:05:10,116 Speaker 1: particularly interested in the approval of others. When I went 73 00:05:10,156 --> 00:05:13,156 Speaker 1: to interview Cliff Astness in Manhattan, I turned on my 74 00:05:13,236 --> 00:05:16,956 Speaker 1: digital recorder and discovered that my memory flash guard was full, 75 00:05:17,676 --> 00:05:20,876 Speaker 1: And after much fluster and fumbling, I realized I had 76 00:05:20,876 --> 00:05:23,436 Speaker 1: no idea how to delete any of the existing data 77 00:05:23,436 --> 00:05:26,996 Speaker 1: from the flashguard to make room for my interview with Asnes. Now, 78 00:05:27,036 --> 00:05:29,636 Speaker 1: the rational thing would have been for me to hand 79 00:05:29,756 --> 00:05:33,276 Speaker 1: Asness the digital recorder and ask him to figure it out. 80 00:05:33,836 --> 00:05:36,436 Speaker 1: Because Cliff Astness has an IQ I'm guessing two to 81 00:05:36,516 --> 00:05:40,076 Speaker 1: three standard deviations higher than mine. He could have solved 82 00:05:40,116 --> 00:05:43,876 Speaker 1: the problem in about thirty seconds, but I didn't hand 83 00:05:43,916 --> 00:05:47,396 Speaker 1: on the recorder because I was embarrassed, because I worried 84 00:05:47,436 --> 00:05:50,036 Speaker 1: that he would think I was pathetic and that concern 85 00:05:50,396 --> 00:05:52,796 Speaker 1: was more important to me than actually fixing my tape 86 00:05:52,796 --> 00:05:57,356 Speaker 1: recorder issues. I am agreeable, I am interested in the 87 00:05:57,356 --> 00:06:00,716 Speaker 1: approval of others. I am the opposite of cliff Astness. 88 00:06:01,316 --> 00:06:04,196 Speaker 1: So I ended up running down forty second Street, two 89 00:06:04,236 --> 00:06:07,596 Speaker 1: cross down blocks to Staples to get another flashguard to 90 00:06:07,676 --> 00:06:10,076 Speaker 1: replace the one. I was too embarrassed to ask for 91 00:06:10,116 --> 00:06:11,196 Speaker 1: help figuring. 92 00:06:10,796 --> 00:06:17,636 Speaker 4: Out here you may include this is this is. This 93 00:06:17,676 --> 00:06:19,796 Speaker 4: is not a secret. I don't work as hard as 94 00:06:19,836 --> 00:06:22,676 Speaker 4: people think. I goof off a lot. 95 00:06:22,996 --> 00:06:28,316 Speaker 1: Cliff Astness likes puzzles, games, problems that engage the imagination. 96 00:06:28,876 --> 00:06:32,436 Speaker 4: I have been caught several times playing internet chess in 97 00:06:32,476 --> 00:06:35,196 Speaker 4: my office from people, and I say, caught. I'm the 98 00:06:35,236 --> 00:06:36,836 Speaker 4: senior guy at the firm. I don't, I don't, I 99 00:06:36,876 --> 00:06:39,476 Speaker 4: don't quit over this. But people come in and I'm like, yeah, 100 00:06:39,476 --> 00:06:41,636 Speaker 4: I gotta beat this guy, hold on more or lose. 101 00:06:41,676 --> 00:06:42,796 Speaker 4: I'm not a great chess player. 102 00:06:43,276 --> 00:06:46,836 Speaker 1: He doesn't play conventional chess. He plays one minute chess, 103 00:06:47,316 --> 00:06:50,196 Speaker 1: known as bullet chess. If you're curious, this is what 104 00:06:50,276 --> 00:07:00,836 Speaker 1: a typical bullet match sounds like. It's like Einstein playing 105 00:07:00,876 --> 00:07:05,116 Speaker 1: ping pong. By the way, when Astnes says I'm the 106 00:07:05,196 --> 00:07:07,796 Speaker 1: senior guy at the firm, he's referring to the fact 107 00:07:07,916 --> 00:07:11,436 Speaker 1: that he heads a company called aq R Capital Applied 108 00:07:11,636 --> 00:07:15,196 Speaker 1: Quantitative Research, a hedge fund with two hundred and twenty 109 00:07:15,236 --> 00:07:20,276 Speaker 1: five billion dollars under management, which brings me to philosopher 110 00:07:20,356 --> 00:07:25,756 Speaker 1: number two, the second architect of the Pologuli principle, Cliff Astnes' 111 00:07:25,916 --> 00:07:30,436 Speaker 1: friend Aaron Brown. If we were to create a disagreeableness 112 00:07:30,476 --> 00:07:33,836 Speaker 1: scale where zero is like a golden retriever and ten 113 00:07:33,956 --> 00:07:36,996 Speaker 1: is mister Spock, Cliff Astness would be a solid seven. 114 00:07:37,516 --> 00:07:40,556 Speaker 1: Aaron Brown is an eight, maybe even an eight point five. 115 00:07:44,876 --> 00:07:47,716 Speaker 1: Brown is a member of the tribe of mathematically minded 116 00:07:47,796 --> 00:07:51,236 Speaker 1: finance guys known as quants. The Wall Street Quants used 117 00:07:51,276 --> 00:07:53,916 Speaker 1: to gather after work at the Odeon Restaurant in downtown 118 00:07:53,956 --> 00:07:57,516 Speaker 1: Manhattan to talk about Gaussian probability in the bond market. 119 00:07:59,716 --> 00:08:02,516 Speaker 5: Yeah, so there's different definitions of quant. So remember quant 120 00:08:02,556 --> 00:08:06,116 Speaker 5: is an insult invented in the mid nineties that became 121 00:08:06,156 --> 00:08:09,556 Speaker 5: adopted as a point of pride. 122 00:08:09,676 --> 00:08:13,836 Speaker 1: Aaron Brown is a big guy beard, impassive demeanor. When 123 00:08:13,876 --> 00:08:16,116 Speaker 1: I met him, I was reminded of my favorite joke 124 00:08:16,116 --> 00:08:19,916 Speaker 1: about engineers. The optimist sees the glasses half full. The 125 00:08:19,956 --> 00:08:23,996 Speaker 1: pessimist sees the glass as half empty. The engineer wonders 126 00:08:23,996 --> 00:08:25,876 Speaker 1: why the glass is twice as large as it needs 127 00:08:25,916 --> 00:08:30,476 Speaker 1: to be. Brown grew up in Seattle. His mom had 128 00:08:30,476 --> 00:08:33,876 Speaker 1: a master's in chemistry. His dad had a PhD in physics. 129 00:08:34,396 --> 00:08:37,316 Speaker 1: Did a lot of unconventional work for the Air Force, 130 00:08:37,676 --> 00:08:40,476 Speaker 1: like the time he inherited a strange contraption. 131 00:08:41,636 --> 00:08:43,436 Speaker 5: The Air Force had even this guy like two million 132 00:08:43,476 --> 00:08:46,436 Speaker 5: dollars over ten years to build some machine, and they 133 00:08:46,436 --> 00:08:47,956 Speaker 5: didn't know what it was supposed to do, but they 134 00:08:48,036 --> 00:08:50,956 Speaker 5: know he was really smart. And then he killed himself, 135 00:08:51,596 --> 00:08:53,356 Speaker 5: and so the Air Force said, is there anybody who 136 00:08:53,356 --> 00:08:55,036 Speaker 5: wants this machine? You can figure out what it does 137 00:08:55,076 --> 00:08:56,876 Speaker 5: and fix it him. My dad said, chure, I'll take it, 138 00:08:56,916 --> 00:08:58,236 Speaker 5: and he had in our base learn. 139 00:08:59,796 --> 00:09:03,516 Speaker 1: A tortured genius builds a sinister contraption with millions of 140 00:09:03,516 --> 00:09:07,676 Speaker 1: dollars of secret Pentagon money. The man mysteriously commits suicide. 141 00:09:07,796 --> 00:09:11,996 Speaker 1: The Air Force says, who wants the machine? Aaron Brown's 142 00:09:12,116 --> 00:09:15,036 Speaker 1: dad says, over here, over here. He puts it in 143 00:09:15,116 --> 00:09:18,036 Speaker 1: his basement and says to his teenage son, Aaron, Hey, 144 00:09:18,556 --> 00:09:20,396 Speaker 1: take a look if you want, Like it's a box 145 00:09:20,436 --> 00:09:25,796 Speaker 1: of legos. This is how you raise a child to 146 00:09:25,836 --> 00:09:26,756 Speaker 1: be an eight point five? 147 00:09:27,596 --> 00:09:28,596 Speaker 3: What was the machine? 148 00:09:28,996 --> 00:09:31,396 Speaker 5: It was just this huge fish. I stared at that 149 00:09:31,436 --> 00:09:34,316 Speaker 5: thing for hours and hours. I couldn't have tubes and 150 00:09:34,396 --> 00:09:37,716 Speaker 5: wires and this and that. And he turned it on 151 00:09:37,836 --> 00:09:39,196 Speaker 5: and it did kind of you know, lights would light 152 00:09:39,236 --> 00:09:41,076 Speaker 5: up and do interesting things. But we never figured out 153 00:09:41,076 --> 00:09:43,236 Speaker 5: what it was intended to do. His note his notes 154 00:09:43,276 --> 00:09:46,956 Speaker 5: were indecipherable, and he burned some of them. So either 155 00:09:47,076 --> 00:09:50,716 Speaker 5: he was the guy who invented like the Universal Wonder 156 00:09:50,796 --> 00:09:54,196 Speaker 5: Machine and whatever, or he was just some crazy guy 157 00:09:54,196 --> 00:09:55,556 Speaker 5: who liked quit wires together. 158 00:09:55,796 --> 00:09:58,316 Speaker 1: It was the thing from that movie from Back to 159 00:09:58,356 --> 00:10:00,436 Speaker 1: the Future, the flat the flux capacitor. 160 00:10:00,556 --> 00:10:05,036 Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, maybe he didn't. Maybe he teleported himself to 161 00:10:05,596 --> 00:10:07,356 Speaker 5: some other civilization or something. 162 00:10:09,116 --> 00:10:11,716 Speaker 1: When Aaron Brown was a teenager, Seattle was in the 163 00:10:11,716 --> 00:10:14,636 Speaker 1: midst of a deep recession. All around him, people are 164 00:10:14,676 --> 00:10:18,156 Speaker 1: losing their jobs. He decides he needs a marketable skill. 165 00:10:18,716 --> 00:10:21,636 Speaker 1: He teaches himself poker and finds a big money game 166 00:10:21,676 --> 00:10:23,116 Speaker 1: in the basement of a local tavern. 167 00:10:23,556 --> 00:10:27,356 Speaker 5: And I figured out two really important things. I was 168 00:10:27,476 --> 00:10:31,036 Speaker 5: much better than these guys. I could easily win money consistently, 169 00:10:32,196 --> 00:10:33,676 Speaker 5: and they let me win it and walk out with it. 170 00:10:34,116 --> 00:10:37,396 Speaker 5: You know, a kid comes in plays, walks out. So 171 00:10:37,516 --> 00:10:39,836 Speaker 5: that's like epiphany for me that says, okay. 172 00:10:39,756 --> 00:10:40,316 Speaker 3: You're how old? 173 00:10:40,716 --> 00:10:44,196 Speaker 5: Fourteen? But I was a shy kid. This took every 174 00:10:44,236 --> 00:10:46,716 Speaker 5: ounce of courage I possessed a walk in there. You know, 175 00:10:46,756 --> 00:10:47,956 Speaker 5: there are people who could have done this and it 176 00:10:47,956 --> 00:10:49,396 Speaker 5: wouldn't have been a big deal. But for me, it 177 00:10:49,516 --> 00:10:52,236 Speaker 5: was like the most traumatic event in my life. But 178 00:10:52,316 --> 00:10:54,196 Speaker 5: when I walked down, I said, Okay, I never have 179 00:10:54,236 --> 00:10:56,316 Speaker 5: to worry about getting a meal, you know, having a 180 00:10:56,356 --> 00:10:58,356 Speaker 5: place to stay because you always find a poker game. 181 00:10:59,356 --> 00:11:01,236 Speaker 3: Did you pay you way through Harvard with poker? 182 00:11:01,356 --> 00:11:01,676 Speaker 4: Yes? 183 00:11:03,116 --> 00:11:05,916 Speaker 1: Aaron Brown ends up on Wall Street, then goes to 184 00:11:05,956 --> 00:11:10,396 Speaker 1: work for Cliff Astness at AQR Capital. Of course, a 185 00:11:10,556 --> 00:11:11,996 Speaker 1: match made in Heaven. 186 00:11:12,196 --> 00:11:13,596 Speaker 3: Do you guys think the same way? Do you have 187 00:11:13,596 --> 00:11:15,196 Speaker 3: differences in the way you approach problems? 188 00:11:15,276 --> 00:11:18,396 Speaker 5: Well, the massive difference and the reason he has billions 189 00:11:18,396 --> 00:11:22,476 Speaker 5: of dollars and I have a comfortable living. He cares 190 00:11:22,796 --> 00:11:29,316 Speaker 5: far more. He gets literally physically angry when things don't 191 00:11:29,316 --> 00:11:32,556 Speaker 5: work and lose money. I'd rather work on an interesting 192 00:11:32,556 --> 00:11:34,756 Speaker 5: problem than profitable problem. 193 00:11:35,476 --> 00:11:37,876 Speaker 1: Now what do these two do aside from making money? 194 00:11:37,876 --> 00:11:42,356 Speaker 1: Of course, they do thought experiments, write them up and 195 00:11:42,436 --> 00:11:46,756 Speaker 1: post them online on something called SSRN, the Social Science 196 00:11:46,876 --> 00:11:51,556 Speaker 1: Research Network, in my opinion, the greatest website on the Internet. 197 00:11:53,356 --> 00:11:56,636 Speaker 1: It's a place where anyone, anyone can post any kind 198 00:11:56,676 --> 00:11:59,956 Speaker 1: of paper or research or argument, and every article posted 199 00:12:00,276 --> 00:12:03,476 Speaker 1: is then ranked according to its popularity. As I'm writing this, 200 00:12:03,876 --> 00:12:07,076 Speaker 1: there are seven hundred and ninety eight seven hundred and 201 00:12:07,076 --> 00:12:11,156 Speaker 1: forty five papers on SSRN. I don't know if you remember. 202 00:12:11,316 --> 00:12:13,836 Speaker 1: Back at the beginning of this season an episode called 203 00:12:13,876 --> 00:12:16,596 Speaker 1: Divide and Conquer, I talked about my love of law 204 00:12:16,636 --> 00:12:19,396 Speaker 1: review articles. Well, where do you think I read law 205 00:12:19,436 --> 00:12:22,916 Speaker 1: review articles? Not in law reviews? Are you kidding? Why 206 00:12:22,956 --> 00:12:25,596 Speaker 1: would I wait two years for some dusty publication to 207 00:12:25,636 --> 00:12:29,196 Speaker 1: put something out. I read them on SSRN because that's 208 00:12:29,236 --> 00:12:33,356 Speaker 1: where everyone posts their articles the minute they finish. In Manhattan. 209 00:12:33,396 --> 00:12:36,396 Speaker 1: For years, the most important source of gossip was page 210 00:12:36,436 --> 00:12:40,716 Speaker 1: six of the New York Post. SSRN is page six 211 00:12:41,036 --> 00:12:46,556 Speaker 1: for Dorks, so not long ago. I'm on SSRN poking 212 00:12:46,596 --> 00:12:49,756 Speaker 1: around and lo and behold what is the number one 213 00:12:49,836 --> 00:12:53,956 Speaker 1: ranked paper at the time. Pulling the goalie Hockey and 214 00:12:54,036 --> 00:13:00,796 Speaker 1: Investment Implications by Clifford Astas and Aaron Brown. I thought 215 00:13:00,836 --> 00:13:04,196 Speaker 1: I didn't have any rules for living. I was wrong. 216 00:13:05,876 --> 00:13:11,156 Speaker 5: Pulling a goaltender down three so really giving a big 217 00:13:11,196 --> 00:13:14,636 Speaker 5: advantage on the power of flay with possession firmly a standler. 218 00:13:16,196 --> 00:13:19,676 Speaker 1: Here's the issue. You're playing hockey. Your team is down 219 00:13:19,716 --> 00:13:22,476 Speaker 1: by one goal late in the game. The coach of 220 00:13:22,516 --> 00:13:26,836 Speaker 1: the losing team typically removes his own goalie and substitutes 221 00:13:26,876 --> 00:13:29,956 Speaker 1: in an extra attacker. So instead of having five offensive 222 00:13:29,956 --> 00:13:32,556 Speaker 1: players and a goalie guarding the net, he now has 223 00:13:32,636 --> 00:13:37,956 Speaker 1: six offensive players and no one guarding his net. 224 00:13:39,196 --> 00:13:42,596 Speaker 4: That don't make him pay for it, I'm shorthanded goal. 225 00:13:43,276 --> 00:13:46,236 Speaker 1: It's a tradeoff. Pulling a goalie makes it easier for 226 00:13:46,236 --> 00:13:48,476 Speaker 1: the other team to score and put the game even 227 00:13:48,556 --> 00:13:51,116 Speaker 1: further out of reach, But at the same time, your 228 00:13:51,156 --> 00:13:54,556 Speaker 1: extra attacker increases your chances of scoring a goal and 229 00:13:54,636 --> 00:14:00,916 Speaker 1: tying the game. Now, if you watch hockey, you know 230 00:14:00,956 --> 00:14:03,196 Speaker 1: that coaches typically pull a goalie with a minute or 231 00:14:03,196 --> 00:14:05,196 Speaker 1: a minute and a half left in the game. But 232 00:14:05,276 --> 00:14:09,476 Speaker 1: that's just hockey tradition. It's not based on data. When 233 00:14:10,036 --> 00:14:12,276 Speaker 1: exactly should you pull the goalie? 234 00:14:12,996 --> 00:14:15,756 Speaker 3: Tell me the genesis of this paper I love so much. 235 00:14:16,076 --> 00:14:19,796 Speaker 5: Okay, Well, Cliff and I talk a lot about sort 236 00:14:19,836 --> 00:14:23,516 Speaker 5: of quant sports stuff, and I have always been talking 237 00:14:23,516 --> 00:14:29,276 Speaker 5: to him about decisions that coaches make that are mathematically indefensible, 238 00:14:29,356 --> 00:14:32,316 Speaker 5: but you know, makes sense from the coach's motivation. And 239 00:14:32,556 --> 00:14:37,556 Speaker 5: specifically we were talking about Seattle Seahawks twenty fourteen Super 240 00:14:37,556 --> 00:14:39,556 Speaker 5: Bowl New New England Patriots. I got the ball on 241 00:14:39,596 --> 00:14:42,156 Speaker 5: the one yard line, second down, twenty six seconds. 242 00:14:41,796 --> 00:14:44,916 Speaker 6: To go, second in goal, Russell Wilson, what are you doing? 243 00:14:45,276 --> 00:14:49,076 Speaker 4: He gets picked up by the undrafted rookie free agent. 244 00:14:48,876 --> 00:14:52,116 Speaker 6: From Western Alabama, Malcolm Butler. 245 00:14:51,836 --> 00:14:53,356 Speaker 4: Who preserves the victory. 246 00:14:53,516 --> 00:14:57,236 Speaker 6: And it will leave everybody asking why in the world. 247 00:14:56,956 --> 00:14:59,716 Speaker 1: With marsha on in the back building, the Seahawks throw 248 00:14:59,796 --> 00:15:03,196 Speaker 1: the football twenty one reasons. At this point, Brown goes 249 00:15:03,236 --> 00:15:07,876 Speaker 1: on a tangent for maybe fifteen minutes about that particular play, 250 00:15:08,236 --> 00:15:11,356 Speaker 1: which has gone down in Super Bowl lore as one 251 00:15:11,356 --> 00:15:14,356 Speaker 1: of the worst coaching decisions in the history of football. 252 00:15:14,956 --> 00:15:17,916 Speaker 1: But Brown convinces me that in fact, it was the 253 00:15:17,996 --> 00:15:21,356 Speaker 1: right call, the rational call, and I would explain his 254 00:15:21,436 --> 00:15:25,276 Speaker 1: logic to you, except that we have much bigger fish 255 00:15:25,276 --> 00:15:29,836 Speaker 1: to fry. Anyway, talk turns to pulling the goalie in hockey, 256 00:15:30,196 --> 00:15:33,636 Speaker 1: and Cliff says to Aaron, Oh, I've done some work 257 00:15:33,676 --> 00:15:34,396 Speaker 1: on this already. 258 00:15:34,876 --> 00:15:38,076 Speaker 4: It's probably six seven years ago, man, five six years ago. 259 00:15:38,436 --> 00:15:41,956 Speaker 4: I wrote this model and xcept out of pure personal interest. 260 00:15:42,556 --> 00:15:44,316 Speaker 4: I thought I had a neat way to think about 261 00:15:44,716 --> 00:15:48,356 Speaker 4: the problem, and essentially it was it's really hard to 262 00:15:48,356 --> 00:15:51,796 Speaker 4: think about what five minutes left, but with ten seconds left, 263 00:15:51,836 --> 00:15:53,076 Speaker 4: it's really easy to think about. 264 00:15:53,676 --> 00:15:57,196 Speaker 1: Cliff shared his calculations with Aaron Brown. Aaron made them 265 00:15:57,196 --> 00:16:01,076 Speaker 1: better and built a beautiful computer model, and their conclusion 266 00:16:01,276 --> 00:16:03,956 Speaker 1: was a team down by one goal should pull its 267 00:16:03,956 --> 00:16:07,556 Speaker 1: goalie with five minutes and forty seconds left in the game, 268 00:16:08,036 --> 00:16:10,476 Speaker 1: and a team down by two goals should pull its 269 00:16:10,516 --> 00:16:15,076 Speaker 1: goalie with eleven minutes and forty seconds left. Eleven minutes 270 00:16:15,316 --> 00:16:20,036 Speaker 1: and forty seconds with an undefended goal. No one in 271 00:16:20,076 --> 00:16:22,916 Speaker 1: all of hockey pulls their goalie with that much time left. 272 00:16:23,356 --> 00:16:25,676 Speaker 1: If a coach did that in a playoff game with 273 00:16:25,836 --> 00:16:29,636 Speaker 1: real stakes involved, the entire arena would probably go up 274 00:16:29,636 --> 00:16:36,396 Speaker 1: in smoke. In basketball and baseball, there's been a statistical 275 00:16:36,436 --> 00:16:40,276 Speaker 1: revolution over the past generation known as moneyball, where advanced 276 00:16:40,316 --> 00:16:43,636 Speaker 1: metrics have been applied to maximize every aspect of the game. 277 00:16:44,116 --> 00:16:47,356 Speaker 1: Hockey is a step behind, with the exception of my 278 00:16:47,516 --> 00:16:50,396 Speaker 1: beloved Toronto maple Leafs, who if a genuine quant is 279 00:16:50,436 --> 00:16:54,196 Speaker 1: their leader. This is a sport where players pick fights 280 00:16:54,236 --> 00:16:56,596 Speaker 1: with each other in full knowledge of the fact that 281 00:16:56,636 --> 00:17:00,196 Speaker 1: the penalty for their transgressions will materially diminish their team's 282 00:17:00,276 --> 00:17:04,916 Speaker 1: chances of winning. Baseball is quantum theory. Hockey is the 283 00:17:04,916 --> 00:17:08,036 Speaker 1: grown up, professional version of Red Rover, Red Rover, let 284 00:17:08,076 --> 00:17:12,916 Speaker 1: Waying Gretzky come over. Hockey coaches are not looking for 285 00:17:12,996 --> 00:17:17,036 Speaker 1: strategic tips on SSRN, So what do they do? They 286 00:17:17,156 --> 00:17:19,996 Speaker 1: keep their goalie in place until the very last minute, 287 00:17:20,316 --> 00:17:23,556 Speaker 1: defending the goal. And why do they keep doing that? 288 00:17:24,196 --> 00:17:33,556 Speaker 1: Because anything else would be impossibly disagreeable. Imagine you're a 289 00:17:33,596 --> 00:17:35,556 Speaker 1: coach of a hockey team down three to one with 290 00:17:35,676 --> 00:17:38,156 Speaker 1: eleven minutes and forty seconds left in the game. You 291 00:17:38,236 --> 00:17:40,916 Speaker 1: pull your goalie. The other team scores, so now it's 292 00:17:41,036 --> 00:17:43,316 Speaker 1: for to one with half of the final period left, 293 00:17:43,476 --> 00:17:45,676 Speaker 1: and now your fans think that you've robbed them of 294 00:17:45,716 --> 00:17:48,676 Speaker 1: what might have been a reasonably interesting game. They'll hate 295 00:17:48,716 --> 00:17:53,956 Speaker 1: you and so your players, because it's an awful lot 296 00:17:53,956 --> 00:17:57,356 Speaker 1: more humiliating to lose a lopsided game than a close one. 297 00:17:57,836 --> 00:18:03,036 Speaker 4: The Cliff and Aaron strategy maybe, again inn our geeky sense, optimal, 298 00:18:03,316 --> 00:18:06,356 Speaker 4: but it doesn't provide the optimal or the maximum amount 299 00:18:06,396 --> 00:18:07,156 Speaker 4: of entertainment. 300 00:18:07,716 --> 00:18:09,356 Speaker 3: It is very high. 301 00:18:09,236 --> 00:18:13,236 Speaker 4: Probability you create a laugher where you get down by three, 302 00:18:13,276 --> 00:18:14,996 Speaker 4: down by four, And of course, if you follow Cliff 303 00:18:15,036 --> 00:18:18,036 Speaker 4: and Aaron's cold vulcan model you never put the goalie 304 00:18:18,076 --> 00:18:21,116 Speaker 4: back in. You're still an infinitesimal chance you will tie it, 305 00:18:21,436 --> 00:18:24,516 Speaker 4: and you lose fourteen to nothing. And it's embarrassing and 306 00:18:24,836 --> 00:18:27,196 Speaker 4: maybe entertainment in a side show kind of way, but 307 00:18:27,276 --> 00:18:28,276 Speaker 4: it's not what they want. 308 00:18:28,916 --> 00:18:32,596 Speaker 1: Who would try this or anything like it, Not anyone 309 00:18:32,636 --> 00:18:36,556 Speaker 1: who has any normal human expectation of being liked and applauded. 310 00:18:37,156 --> 00:18:40,636 Speaker 1: But do Cliff and Aaron need to be liked and applauded. No, 311 00:18:40,716 --> 00:18:44,436 Speaker 1: they don't. Astas founded his firm with a couple of 312 00:18:44,436 --> 00:18:47,476 Speaker 1: other PhD graduates from the finance department of the University 313 00:18:47,516 --> 00:18:50,996 Speaker 1: of Chicago, which is like the geek capital of the world, 314 00:18:51,716 --> 00:18:54,676 Speaker 1: and his basic hiring philosophy ever since has been to 315 00:18:54,756 --> 00:19:00,356 Speaker 1: hire more PhDs disagreeable quants just like him. He's now 316 00:19:00,436 --> 00:19:05,356 Speaker 1: up to seventy three PhDs. For comparison purposes, the economics 317 00:19:05,396 --> 00:19:09,636 Speaker 1: faculty at MIT has forty one PhDs at one point 318 00:19:09,676 --> 00:19:14,316 Speaker 1: seven eight x MIT and counting. Now does he need 319 00:19:14,356 --> 00:19:17,596 Speaker 1: that many PhDs? I have no idea, But how much 320 00:19:17,676 --> 00:19:21,476 Speaker 1: more fun is office life for insanely smart, disagreeable people 321 00:19:21,596 --> 00:19:24,396 Speaker 1: if at all times they are surrounded by dozens and 322 00:19:24,476 --> 00:19:28,636 Speaker 1: dozens of other insanely smart and disagreeable people circling each 323 00:19:28,676 --> 00:19:30,876 Speaker 1: other's arguments like vultures. 324 00:19:32,596 --> 00:19:34,556 Speaker 5: Which is going to be one of the watershed days 325 00:19:34,636 --> 00:19:35,916 Speaker 5: in financial market's history. 326 00:19:36,076 --> 00:19:38,596 Speaker 1: It was a manic Monday in the financial markets. 327 00:19:39,716 --> 00:19:42,836 Speaker 7: The Dow tumbled more than five hundred points after two 328 00:19:42,916 --> 00:19:45,276 Speaker 7: pillars of the Street tumbled over the weekend. 329 00:19:45,916 --> 00:19:48,276 Speaker 1: Remember the start of the financial crisis in two thousand 330 00:19:48,276 --> 00:19:50,636 Speaker 1: and eight, when no one knew what to do as 331 00:19:50,636 --> 00:19:53,396 Speaker 1: stocks were falling in banks teetering on the brink, and 332 00:19:53,436 --> 00:19:55,916 Speaker 1: everyone was running around screaming for the Secretary of the 333 00:19:55,956 --> 00:19:59,836 Speaker 1: Treasury to do something. Aaron Brown told me that if 334 00:19:59,876 --> 00:20:03,836 Speaker 1: he had been Treasury Secretary, he would have done nothing. 335 00:20:04,516 --> 00:20:06,876 Speaker 1: In fact, he would have gone on vacation for a 336 00:20:06,876 --> 00:20:09,636 Speaker 1: few months, because the truth was no no one knew 337 00:20:09,676 --> 00:20:11,676 Speaker 1: what to do. And when no one knows what to do, 338 00:20:11,796 --> 00:20:14,596 Speaker 1: Aaron Brown says, the rational thing is to wait until 339 00:20:14,636 --> 00:20:17,276 Speaker 1: you have the data you need before you start throwing 340 00:20:17,316 --> 00:20:21,876 Speaker 1: around trillions of dollars in bailout money. This is exactly 341 00:20:21,916 --> 00:20:24,836 Speaker 1: the kind of thing that someone with a disagreeable score 342 00:20:25,076 --> 00:20:28,476 Speaker 1: of eight point five would say. In times of panic, 343 00:20:28,916 --> 00:20:32,676 Speaker 1: the agreeable Treasury Secretary would want to be a calming presence, 344 00:20:33,076 --> 00:20:35,956 Speaker 1: to project stability and wisdom, to have others look at 345 00:20:35,996 --> 00:20:39,716 Speaker 1: him and nod approvingly and murmur something about the importance 346 00:20:39,756 --> 00:20:42,676 Speaker 1: of a firm hand at the tiller. But not Aaron Brown. 347 00:20:43,356 --> 00:20:46,596 Speaker 1: He doesn't care about Wall Street's feelings. He cares about 348 00:20:46,596 --> 00:20:49,836 Speaker 1: the trillion dollars people would be calling for his head. 349 00:20:50,276 --> 00:20:54,716 Speaker 1: He would be pullside in Boca, browsing SSRN on his BlackBerry. 350 00:20:58,996 --> 00:21:02,076 Speaker 1: Oh man, how great if we could all be as 351 00:21:02,236 --> 00:21:04,356 Speaker 1: disagreeable as Cliff and Aaron. 352 00:21:09,396 --> 00:21:11,876 Speaker 3: I suppose you were. Let me give you a hypothical scenario. 353 00:21:12,396 --> 00:21:15,516 Speaker 3: You have a plucky young team and inexplicably you have 354 00:21:16,156 --> 00:21:19,396 Speaker 3: ended up in the Stanley Cup Finals and you're up 355 00:21:19,436 --> 00:21:22,796 Speaker 3: against one of the great Pittsburgh Penguin teams in the 356 00:21:22,876 --> 00:21:27,196 Speaker 3: last couple of years. Would you consider pulling the goalie 357 00:21:27,196 --> 00:21:28,036 Speaker 3: to start the game? 358 00:21:28,276 --> 00:21:30,716 Speaker 5: I absolutely would love to do it, and I'd have 359 00:21:30,756 --> 00:21:31,396 Speaker 5: to do the math. 360 00:21:33,396 --> 00:21:47,916 Speaker 1: Do the math always, We'll be right back. A few 361 00:21:47,956 --> 00:21:50,956 Speaker 1: years ago a movie came out called No Good Deed, 362 00:21:51,636 --> 00:21:55,676 Speaker 1: starring Taraji p Henson as a woman named Terry and 363 00:21:55,716 --> 00:22:04,756 Speaker 1: the ridiculously handsome Idris Elba as Colin. No Good Deed 364 00:22:04,996 --> 00:22:08,396 Speaker 1: is a home invasion movie, and home invasion movies are 365 00:22:08,396 --> 00:22:12,356 Speaker 1: of a piece with pulling the goalie. They are meditations 366 00:22:12,436 --> 00:22:17,276 Speaker 1: on disagreeableness. Not to get pretentious, but both goalie pulling 367 00:22:17,396 --> 00:22:20,316 Speaker 1: and the home invasion genre are versions of the canonical 368 00:22:20,396 --> 00:22:23,916 Speaker 1: story of God commanding Abraham to kill his son Isaac. 369 00:22:25,836 --> 00:22:29,476 Speaker 1: Sorren Kirkgard wrote about it in Fear and Trembling. God 370 00:22:29,596 --> 00:22:34,156 Speaker 1: commands Abraham to sacrifice his son Isaac to demonstrate his loyalty, 371 00:22:34,596 --> 00:22:37,956 Speaker 1: and the rational thing is for Abraham to obey God 372 00:22:38,476 --> 00:22:41,516 Speaker 1: because If God is all powerful, then Abraham's future and 373 00:22:41,556 --> 00:22:44,156 Speaker 1: the future of his family depend on being in God's 374 00:22:44,156 --> 00:22:47,036 Speaker 1: good graces. But how can he look his son in 375 00:22:47,076 --> 00:22:50,756 Speaker 1: the eye and then kill him. It's a disagreeableness test. 376 00:22:51,436 --> 00:22:53,556 Speaker 1: How much will you let the thought of what others 377 00:22:53,636 --> 00:22:56,316 Speaker 1: think of you and what you think of yourself get 378 00:22:56,356 --> 00:22:57,836 Speaker 1: in the way of doing what is right in the 379 00:22:57,876 --> 00:23:00,916 Speaker 1: eyes of God? On the one side is fear, on 380 00:23:00,996 --> 00:23:05,476 Speaker 1: the other trembling. This is exactly what goes on in 381 00:23:05,556 --> 00:23:06,556 Speaker 1: home invasion movies. 382 00:23:06,836 --> 00:23:07,476 Speaker 8: Absolutely. 383 00:23:07,796 --> 00:23:10,036 Speaker 1: That's Ami Lagos who wrote No Good Deed. 384 00:23:10,436 --> 00:23:13,676 Speaker 8: To me, that's at the core of why these movies 385 00:23:14,236 --> 00:23:19,156 Speaker 8: are interesting to people. Why the home invasion genre? You know, 386 00:23:19,236 --> 00:23:22,236 Speaker 8: it's an actual genre at this point, you know why 387 00:23:22,516 --> 00:23:23,676 Speaker 8: it persists. 388 00:23:24,396 --> 00:23:27,716 Speaker 1: I called Logos up after the Revisionist History research team 389 00:23:27,756 --> 00:23:30,916 Speaker 1: determined that No Good Deed was the most perfectly Kureka 390 00:23:30,916 --> 00:23:32,756 Speaker 1: guardian of all home invasion movies. 391 00:23:33,316 --> 00:23:38,556 Speaker 8: It puts you in these incredibly morally ambiguous situations where 392 00:23:39,436 --> 00:23:43,116 Speaker 8: the audience can see the direct path to success. 393 00:23:43,796 --> 00:23:48,356 Speaker 1: So here's the premise of No Good Deed. It's late 394 00:23:48,476 --> 00:23:53,996 Speaker 1: on a Friday night, raining hard. Terry is at home 395 00:23:53,996 --> 00:23:55,196 Speaker 1: with her two small children. 396 00:23:56,796 --> 00:23:57,396 Speaker 5: Okay, finished. 397 00:23:57,796 --> 00:24:01,596 Speaker 1: The doorbell rings. It's interests Elba. 398 00:24:02,876 --> 00:24:04,356 Speaker 4: I'm sorry. I don't mean to bother you. 399 00:24:04,916 --> 00:24:07,196 Speaker 5: I just lost Jola macaw as directed. 400 00:24:07,796 --> 00:24:10,236 Speaker 1: He says he's been in an accident and he forgot 401 00:24:10,276 --> 00:24:14,196 Speaker 1: his cell phone. Can he come in and use her phone? 402 00:24:14,796 --> 00:24:22,276 Speaker 1: She lets him in, Of course she does. He kind 403 00:24:22,276 --> 00:24:27,396 Speaker 1: of has to be insanely handsome. Yes, for that to work. 404 00:24:27,716 --> 00:24:30,836 Speaker 1: She's not gonna let me in if I show up 405 00:24:30,876 --> 00:24:34,076 Speaker 1: wet and bedraggled at one hundred and thirty pounds. She's 406 00:24:34,116 --> 00:24:36,476 Speaker 1: not like, I don't know. 407 00:24:36,516 --> 00:24:40,396 Speaker 8: I mean, I think maybe she would. I think ultimately, yes, 408 00:24:40,476 --> 00:24:43,396 Speaker 8: I think his insane good looks are a huge part 409 00:24:43,436 --> 00:24:47,476 Speaker 8: of that, and another, you know, another big part of 410 00:24:48,036 --> 00:24:50,636 Speaker 8: her character. You know, she's sort of been primed for 411 00:24:50,676 --> 00:24:54,116 Speaker 8: this moment in her life. Leading up to this moment, right, 412 00:24:54,156 --> 00:24:58,476 Speaker 8: she's feeling unseen, she's feeling unsatisfied in her marriage, she's 413 00:24:58,516 --> 00:25:05,036 Speaker 8: feeling neglected. This handsome stranger shows up and compromises her 414 00:25:05,476 --> 00:25:09,836 Speaker 8: her instincts, you know, on some level, because he so handsome. 415 00:25:10,596 --> 00:25:14,476 Speaker 1: It's awkward at first, but he's super charming. They flirt 416 00:25:14,476 --> 00:25:17,316 Speaker 1: a little waiting for the tow truck to come. There's 417 00:25:17,356 --> 00:25:19,876 Speaker 1: a whole lot of something in the air, and then 418 00:25:20,356 --> 00:25:23,436 Speaker 1: halfway into the movie she sees him for who he 419 00:25:23,516 --> 00:25:28,316 Speaker 1: really is, a deeply evil guy. She runs to the 420 00:25:28,436 --> 00:25:31,036 Speaker 1: kitchen to call the cops and sees that he's cut 421 00:25:31,076 --> 00:25:34,036 Speaker 1: the phone line. She looks around, terrified to see where 422 00:25:34,076 --> 00:25:37,076 Speaker 1: he's gone, can't find him. Then oh my god, runs 423 00:25:37,116 --> 00:25:40,756 Speaker 1: upstairs to find him playing with her daughter again. 424 00:25:44,756 --> 00:25:46,316 Speaker 4: Again. All right, let's do it. 425 00:25:46,436 --> 00:25:48,156 Speaker 6: Let's go and up. 426 00:25:48,276 --> 00:25:48,996 Speaker 4: Such a scare. 427 00:25:50,996 --> 00:25:56,596 Speaker 5: No, Ryan, Ryan, Baby, you gotta go to bed. Okay, Ryan, 428 00:25:56,676 --> 00:25:57,996 Speaker 5: and I just hav him some fun. 429 00:25:58,036 --> 00:25:59,396 Speaker 2: That's a lot we were No. 430 00:26:01,436 --> 00:26:03,916 Speaker 5: Come on, fuck a ball, it's past your ball time. 431 00:26:04,036 --> 00:26:04,316 Speaker 7: See. 432 00:26:04,996 --> 00:26:07,196 Speaker 1: Amy Lagos says she went to see No Good Deed 433 00:26:07,356 --> 00:26:09,876 Speaker 1: on opening night at a theater and ball Hills in 434 00:26:09,916 --> 00:26:10,796 Speaker 1: Los Angeles. 435 00:26:11,236 --> 00:26:14,316 Speaker 8: You know it was it was a really rousing I mean, 436 00:26:14,356 --> 00:26:16,116 Speaker 8: there were lines out the door to get in, and 437 00:26:16,156 --> 00:26:18,556 Speaker 8: the place was packed, and people were screaming and shouting 438 00:26:18,596 --> 00:26:19,196 Speaker 8: at the screen, and. 439 00:26:19,156 --> 00:26:21,356 Speaker 1: It was wait, what point do you remember what point 440 00:26:21,396 --> 00:26:21,996 Speaker 1: they're screaming? 441 00:26:22,036 --> 00:26:25,196 Speaker 8: I'm the entire after they get to back to the 442 00:26:25,236 --> 00:26:29,476 Speaker 8: house where Collins ex is murdered. I don't think I 443 00:26:29,476 --> 00:26:31,756 Speaker 8: could hear a word for that. The rest of the film. 444 00:26:31,796 --> 00:26:35,836 Speaker 8: From then on, it was just people screaming at her 445 00:26:35,956 --> 00:26:36,716 Speaker 8: what she should do. 446 00:26:37,556 --> 00:26:39,756 Speaker 1: And did they have well, I mean, what were the 447 00:26:39,836 --> 00:26:41,996 Speaker 1: range of things they were suggesting did they say? Were 448 00:26:42,036 --> 00:26:43,396 Speaker 1: they saying to her run. 449 00:26:43,556 --> 00:26:44,796 Speaker 8: Yeah, kill him? 450 00:26:44,836 --> 00:26:44,996 Speaker 6: You know? 451 00:26:45,036 --> 00:26:47,556 Speaker 8: It was like it was it was everything from like 452 00:26:47,716 --> 00:26:49,876 Speaker 8: run get out of there, to kill him, to you know, 453 00:26:49,956 --> 00:26:53,196 Speaker 8: to like just every everybody had their answer of what 454 00:26:53,236 --> 00:26:55,356 Speaker 8: she should do next, and they were one hundred percent 455 00:26:55,396 --> 00:26:57,076 Speaker 8: sure that's what she should do. 456 00:26:59,436 --> 00:27:03,796 Speaker 1: Exactly what should Terry do? She's a baby and a 457 00:27:03,796 --> 00:27:07,556 Speaker 1: four year old. A psychopath is threatening her children. At 458 00:27:07,556 --> 00:27:10,956 Speaker 1: one point, she grabs are extinguisher and hits him over 459 00:27:10,996 --> 00:27:13,636 Speaker 1: the head and he tumbles down the stairs, but he's 460 00:27:13,756 --> 00:27:17,916 Speaker 1: Idris Elba. He gets back up. Later, Idris herds them 461 00:27:17,956 --> 00:27:20,316 Speaker 1: all into her car and they drive to another house. 462 00:27:20,676 --> 00:27:22,476 Speaker 1: On the way, they get pulled over by a cop. 463 00:27:22,996 --> 00:27:26,916 Speaker 1: He's suspicious, but Idris reaches into the back seat and 464 00:27:26,996 --> 00:27:30,116 Speaker 1: takes her baby into his arms, so Terry can't tell 465 00:27:30,156 --> 00:27:33,356 Speaker 1: the officers she's in trouble? Can she? What should she do? 466 00:27:34,556 --> 00:27:38,316 Speaker 1: I felt like I needed high level assistance, someone who 467 00:27:38,316 --> 00:27:42,796 Speaker 1: could put the home invasion dilemma into broader context. So 468 00:27:42,836 --> 00:27:48,996 Speaker 1: I called up Sam Harris, author, podcaster, neuroscientist, the kind 469 00:27:48,996 --> 00:27:51,876 Speaker 1: of person who would publish his own twelve rules, or 470 00:27:51,956 --> 00:27:53,756 Speaker 1: if pressed, maybe even twenty four. 471 00:27:54,436 --> 00:27:59,236 Speaker 6: So yeah, if someone breaks into your house, I mean 472 00:27:59,236 --> 00:28:02,596 Speaker 6: there are a few things that are relevant to flag there. 473 00:28:02,636 --> 00:28:05,556 Speaker 6: One is the time of day is relevant if someone 474 00:28:05,596 --> 00:28:07,716 Speaker 6: breaks in in the middle of the night and you 475 00:28:07,756 --> 00:28:11,476 Speaker 6: are there. Now you're talking about somebody who hasn't taken 476 00:28:11,636 --> 00:28:16,436 Speaker 6: any care to show up when you're not there. And 477 00:28:16,516 --> 00:28:19,916 Speaker 6: the kind of person who does this is the kind 478 00:28:19,916 --> 00:28:24,436 Speaker 6: of person who either doesn't care to find a person 479 00:28:24,516 --> 00:28:27,436 Speaker 6: in the house that he's breaking into, or finding a 480 00:28:27,476 --> 00:28:29,756 Speaker 6: person there is part of the fun, right, And so 481 00:28:29,836 --> 00:28:33,716 Speaker 6: this selects for the scariest kind of criminal. 482 00:28:33,796 --> 00:28:36,396 Speaker 1: That would be Idris Elba in no good deed. 483 00:28:37,276 --> 00:28:43,236 Speaker 6: You can't assume that this person has any ethics that 484 00:28:43,316 --> 00:28:49,316 Speaker 6: you can interact with profitably by bargaining, by pleading your case. 485 00:28:50,196 --> 00:28:52,316 Speaker 6: I mean, this is just that's not who's coming through 486 00:28:52,356 --> 00:28:55,396 Speaker 6: the window in all likelihood. 487 00:28:56,356 --> 00:28:59,396 Speaker 1: Halfway through my interview with Sam Harris, I began mentally 488 00:28:59,396 --> 00:29:04,516 Speaker 1: calculating his score on the Disagreeableness Index. I'm thinking nine 489 00:29:04,556 --> 00:29:05,316 Speaker 1: point five. 490 00:29:05,596 --> 00:29:11,076 Speaker 6: And I must admit this is highly counterintuitive and perhaps 491 00:29:11,196 --> 00:29:15,836 Speaker 6: impossible to act on. But I mean, just think this through. 492 00:29:16,916 --> 00:29:20,956 Speaker 1: Sam Harris says, you have only one option. When Idris 493 00:29:20,956 --> 00:29:26,316 Speaker 1: elba is upstairs playing with your kids, that's your opportunity run. 494 00:29:30,476 --> 00:29:33,836 Speaker 6: Everything in us recoils at the idea of doing that, 495 00:29:33,916 --> 00:29:38,076 Speaker 6: except it does change the situation in a surprising way. 496 00:29:38,556 --> 00:29:43,996 Speaker 6: One It introduces significant uncertainty in the mind of your attacker, 497 00:29:44,516 --> 00:29:48,036 Speaker 6: because now he knows the clock is ticket. You'll be 498 00:29:48,076 --> 00:29:52,756 Speaker 6: summoning help in a matter of moments or minutes at 499 00:29:52,756 --> 00:29:58,916 Speaker 6: the longest. And then you know, we'll discover just what 500 00:29:59,076 --> 00:30:01,596 Speaker 6: sort of attacker this person is. 501 00:30:03,196 --> 00:30:07,156 Speaker 1: We'll discover just what sort of attacker this person is. 502 00:30:11,076 --> 00:30:14,476 Speaker 6: Now, if your concern is that he's going to kill 503 00:30:14,516 --> 00:30:18,196 Speaker 6: your child because you didn't follow instructions, well, then very 504 00:30:18,276 --> 00:30:19,796 Speaker 6: likely this is the sort of person who is going 505 00:30:19,796 --> 00:30:24,516 Speaker 6: to kill your child anyway, right, and kill you as well. 506 00:30:24,596 --> 00:30:28,396 Speaker 1: It's late in the third period, you're Taraji Henson. You're 507 00:30:28,436 --> 00:30:32,156 Speaker 1: losing down by a goal to a psychopath. Now running 508 00:30:32,156 --> 00:30:35,476 Speaker 1: away carries a huge social cost and a real risk 509 00:30:35,516 --> 00:30:38,716 Speaker 1: of an even more disastrous outcome, But at the same time, 510 00:30:39,156 --> 00:30:43,156 Speaker 1: it increases your chances of winning from zero to something 511 00:30:43,276 --> 00:30:47,796 Speaker 1: slightly greater than zero pull the goalie. 512 00:30:48,156 --> 00:30:50,356 Speaker 6: That is a totally rational option, and may in fact 513 00:30:50,396 --> 00:30:51,876 Speaker 6: be the only rational option. 514 00:30:53,276 --> 00:30:56,316 Speaker 1: But it's impossible, isn't it. You've got to be disagreeable 515 00:30:56,396 --> 00:30:58,756 Speaker 1: level eight or nine to pull that off. 516 00:30:58,956 --> 00:31:01,596 Speaker 6: I imagine how you will look to your child, or 517 00:31:01,676 --> 00:31:04,556 Speaker 6: to your wife, or to anyone else who's terrified and 518 00:31:04,596 --> 00:31:08,676 Speaker 6: looking in your direction for help if you just bolt 519 00:31:08,676 --> 00:31:11,316 Speaker 6: from the house at that moment. Uh, it's you know, 520 00:31:11,316 --> 00:31:14,196 Speaker 6: it's only when you come with the cavalry and rescue 521 00:31:14,196 --> 00:31:17,436 Speaker 6: everyone that you know, you seem like you were, you know, 522 00:31:17,476 --> 00:31:20,196 Speaker 6: wise and responsible. But in those moments, it just seems 523 00:31:20,236 --> 00:31:22,956 Speaker 6: like a total failure, and you know, may in fact 524 00:31:22,996 --> 00:31:24,036 Speaker 6: feel like a failure. 525 00:31:24,836 --> 00:31:28,316 Speaker 1: I know that sounds crazy. I thought he can't be right, 526 00:31:29,116 --> 00:31:32,436 Speaker 1: but he is right. The job of a parent being 527 00:31:32,476 --> 00:31:35,516 Speaker 1: held hostage by Idris Elba is not to win a 528 00:31:35,516 --> 00:31:39,716 Speaker 1: parental popularity contest. It is to maximize their child's chances 529 00:31:39,756 --> 00:31:43,596 Speaker 1: of survival. I try to convince Amy Lagos of this. 530 00:31:44,236 --> 00:31:48,596 Speaker 1: Amy Lagos, herself, the mother of two small children, wish 531 00:31:48,636 --> 00:31:53,156 Speaker 1: me luck. She should run without her children, like she 532 00:31:53,196 --> 00:31:55,436 Speaker 1: should just well, this is what I want to get. 533 00:31:55,476 --> 00:31:57,796 Speaker 1: This is totally what I want to talk about let's 534 00:31:57,836 --> 00:32:03,036 Speaker 1: think about this rationally, she what's he going to do 535 00:32:03,116 --> 00:32:05,956 Speaker 1: to the kids when she's not there? Right? 536 00:32:07,156 --> 00:32:07,396 Speaker 2: Right? 537 00:32:07,916 --> 00:32:11,236 Speaker 1: Is it any right? I mean, the only reason to 538 00:32:11,276 --> 00:32:13,956 Speaker 1: mess with her kids is to get leverage over her. 539 00:32:14,156 --> 00:32:20,636 Speaker 8: Well, not necessarily know what his motivation is, right, I mean? 540 00:32:21,156 --> 00:32:23,196 Speaker 1: Oh, I mean he just could be just a psycho 541 00:32:23,356 --> 00:32:24,076 Speaker 1: standard issue. 542 00:32:24,156 --> 00:32:27,276 Speaker 8: Yes, I mean, I'm telling you. If I'm in my 543 00:32:27,436 --> 00:32:32,756 Speaker 8: house and I realize that there is somebody there is 544 00:32:32,796 --> 00:32:36,076 Speaker 8: a psychopath in my house, I am not leaving my 545 00:32:36,156 --> 00:32:38,756 Speaker 8: kids like you could. You could burn the house down 546 00:32:38,756 --> 00:32:39,876 Speaker 8: and I would stay with the kids. 547 00:32:40,996 --> 00:32:45,196 Speaker 1: No, no, No. The fact that he's a psychopath is 548 00:32:45,276 --> 00:32:48,076 Speaker 1: exactly why you should leave your children behind. It's your 549 00:32:48,116 --> 00:32:50,676 Speaker 1: only chance to save them. Amy, Run for the love 550 00:32:50,676 --> 00:32:56,796 Speaker 1: of God, Rule number one for living pull the goalie. 551 00:33:02,396 --> 00:33:05,636 Speaker 1: In common law, there's a principle called duty to retreat, 552 00:33:06,276 --> 00:33:09,476 Speaker 1: which holds that a person being threatened as a duty 553 00:33:09,876 --> 00:33:12,956 Speaker 1: to retreat to a place of safety to exhaust all 554 00:33:12,996 --> 00:33:16,876 Speaker 1: avenue of escape before they can justifiably use force in 555 00:33:16,956 --> 00:33:21,036 Speaker 1: self defense. In the past several years, though about half 556 00:33:21,076 --> 00:33:24,876 Speaker 1: of American states have passed stand your ground laws. Now, 557 00:33:24,956 --> 00:33:27,236 Speaker 1: what's to stand your ground? Law. It's a law that 558 00:33:27,236 --> 00:33:31,636 Speaker 1: effectively repeals duty to retreat. It says you don't need 559 00:33:31,676 --> 00:33:34,836 Speaker 1: to exhaust all avenues of escape to claim self defense 560 00:33:34,916 --> 00:33:37,436 Speaker 1: in a court of law. You can stand your ground, 561 00:33:37,836 --> 00:33:42,916 Speaker 1: defend yourself, and the law will support that choice. Duty 562 00:33:42,956 --> 00:33:46,316 Speaker 1: to retreat is a legal principle that gives people license 563 00:33:46,436 --> 00:33:50,156 Speaker 1: to act disagreeably. I am not a coward if I 564 00:33:50,196 --> 00:33:53,436 Speaker 1: cut and run the first opportunity. I am, in fact, 565 00:33:53,796 --> 00:33:59,236 Speaker 1: acting morally and responsibly. Stand your ground laws sanction the 566 00:33:59,276 --> 00:34:03,556 Speaker 1: Socially Agreeable Act. They say, what matters is that you 567 00:34:03,836 --> 00:34:07,116 Speaker 1: preserve your honor in front of family and community. I 568 00:34:07,236 --> 00:34:12,876 Speaker 1: did not run. I stood ground. So what's happening in 569 00:34:12,916 --> 00:34:16,556 Speaker 1: those states that now have stand your ground laws? Well, 570 00:34:16,596 --> 00:34:21,276 Speaker 1: I refer you to stand your ground laws. Homicides and Injuries, 571 00:34:21,596 --> 00:34:24,716 Speaker 1: Journal of Human Resources, Summer twenty seventeen. 572 00:34:26,596 --> 00:34:28,436 Speaker 7: I think overall, we found about a seven and a 573 00:34:28,476 --> 00:34:33,516 Speaker 7: half seven point seven percent increase in the overall homicide rate. 574 00:34:33,876 --> 00:34:38,996 Speaker 1: That's Chandler McClellan, adjunct professor at American University, first author 575 00:34:39,076 --> 00:34:42,356 Speaker 1: of the study in question. States that pass stand your 576 00:34:42,356 --> 00:34:46,396 Speaker 1: ground laws saw their murder rates rise seven point seven 577 00:34:46,476 --> 00:34:50,076 Speaker 1: percent compared to states that didn't pass those laws. 578 00:34:50,396 --> 00:34:53,636 Speaker 7: Well, the fact that the homicide rate increases in these 579 00:34:53,676 --> 00:34:58,076 Speaker 7: cases suggests that that's not the case. That people were 580 00:34:58,196 --> 00:35:02,236 Speaker 7: using these laws and standing their ground in cases where 581 00:35:02,676 --> 00:35:06,236 Speaker 7: they're actually not being lethally threatened. They could de escalate 582 00:35:06,276 --> 00:35:09,436 Speaker 7: the situation, they could get away, but instead the using 583 00:35:09,516 --> 00:35:12,876 Speaker 7: to engage in self defense and use lethal force against 584 00:35:12,916 --> 00:35:16,316 Speaker 7: this threat. And as a result, you're seeing this kind 585 00:35:16,356 --> 00:35:19,716 Speaker 7: of net increase in homicide rates. 586 00:35:20,036 --> 00:35:22,316 Speaker 1: And who are all these extra people getting killed in 587 00:35:22,356 --> 00:35:24,996 Speaker 1: standard ground states? White men? 588 00:35:25,596 --> 00:35:28,076 Speaker 7: I think our estimates kind of show about twenty percent, 589 00:35:28,236 --> 00:35:32,236 Speaker 7: twenty five percent increase in homicides among white males. And 590 00:35:32,716 --> 00:35:35,396 Speaker 7: actually that seems a little. 591 00:35:35,196 --> 00:35:38,676 Speaker 1: High, middle high. It's a huge dunburn. 592 00:35:39,956 --> 00:35:43,596 Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly, it is. But nevertheless that's kind of what 593 00:35:43,756 --> 00:35:47,636 Speaker 7: that's what fell out the modeling. Yeah, Yeah, we speculate 594 00:35:47,876 --> 00:35:52,796 Speaker 7: that because the white male population is the population this 595 00:35:53,076 --> 00:35:57,036 Speaker 7: most interested in the gun culture, more likely to be 596 00:35:57,116 --> 00:36:01,556 Speaker 7: members of organizations like the NRA, Because white males are 597 00:36:01,636 --> 00:36:04,716 Speaker 7: so entrenched in this sort of culture, we think that 598 00:36:04,796 --> 00:36:08,236 Speaker 7: these laws are most salient for them, and as a result, 599 00:36:08,756 --> 00:36:11,596 Speaker 7: they're most aware of them and they're most likely to 600 00:36:11,676 --> 00:36:12,916 Speaker 7: act on them. 601 00:36:13,156 --> 00:36:16,396 Speaker 1: So a certain kind of white guy who is really 602 00:36:16,396 --> 00:36:19,916 Speaker 1: into guns and the NRA gets super excited about stand 603 00:36:19,956 --> 00:36:22,956 Speaker 1: your ground laws and instead of looking to avoid violence 604 00:36:23,036 --> 00:36:26,116 Speaker 1: or run away, grabs his gun and stands his ground. 605 00:36:26,796 --> 00:36:29,996 Speaker 1: That is, right before the other guy shoots him dead. 606 00:36:31,516 --> 00:36:35,236 Speaker 1: Tragic astic is the is the most appropriate word, but 607 00:36:36,116 --> 00:36:39,636 Speaker 1: the other word disappropriate here is ironic that the NRA 608 00:36:39,956 --> 00:36:44,156 Speaker 1: is has been pursuing a policy agenda with stand your 609 00:36:44,156 --> 00:36:46,916 Speaker 1: ground that has the effect of getting its own members killed. 610 00:36:49,636 --> 00:36:51,596 Speaker 7: It is a little ironic and. 611 00:36:53,996 --> 00:36:56,596 Speaker 1: Figuring out when to pull the goalie or what to 612 00:36:56,676 --> 00:36:59,996 Speaker 1: do when Idris Elbas shows up late at night seem 613 00:37:00,116 --> 00:37:05,836 Speaker 1: like abstract intellectual exercises. They are not. They are rehearsals 614 00:37:06,076 --> 00:37:10,036 Speaker 1: for real life, because being disagreeable, well when you need 615 00:37:10,036 --> 00:37:14,636 Speaker 1: to be disagreeable, is hard, especially because the world around us, 616 00:37:14,996 --> 00:37:18,916 Speaker 1: the crowd in the stands, the short sighted lawmakers. They 617 00:37:18,996 --> 00:37:23,396 Speaker 1: encourage us to do the easy and agreeable thing, which 618 00:37:23,436 --> 00:37:27,276 Speaker 1: gets us killed, pull the goalie. 619 00:37:28,916 --> 00:37:32,356 Speaker 4: I have an aunt, She's Australian who once a year 620 00:37:32,476 --> 00:37:35,396 Speaker 4: calls me to ask when she should convert her Assi 621 00:37:35,516 --> 00:37:38,836 Speaker 4: dollars to wherever she's going that year on vacation. For 622 00:37:38,876 --> 00:37:42,236 Speaker 4: about ten years, I explained ant Cynthia. You know, we 623 00:37:42,276 --> 00:37:45,396 Speaker 4: do have views on currencies, but their micro views, they're 624 00:37:45,476 --> 00:37:48,076 Speaker 4: fifty one percent chance of being right, let alone on 625 00:37:48,116 --> 00:37:51,436 Speaker 4: a given day. So I'm loath to give this to you. 626 00:37:51,596 --> 00:37:53,636 Speaker 4: And she'd always act like I knew the answer. I 627 00:37:53,716 --> 00:37:54,756 Speaker 4: just refuse to tell her. 628 00:37:55,396 --> 00:37:59,316 Speaker 1: Year after year, his Australian aunt called and Cliff refused 629 00:37:59,316 --> 00:38:03,236 Speaker 1: to help her. Then one day Cliff asked us, realized 630 00:38:03,556 --> 00:38:06,236 Speaker 1: he didn't have to always be disagreeable. 631 00:38:06,836 --> 00:38:09,596 Speaker 4: She'd say, when should I convert my my ass to 632 00:38:09,676 --> 00:38:13,316 Speaker 4: Japanese yen? And I'd go, not this, but next Thursday, 633 00:38:15,236 --> 00:38:22,156 Speaker 4: and everyone was happy. She I was lauded for giving 634 00:38:22,156 --> 00:38:25,356 Speaker 4: her the truth. She was happy because she really feels 635 00:38:25,396 --> 00:38:28,316 Speaker 4: she knows what she's doing. She never checks before or after. 636 00:38:28,636 --> 00:38:31,676 Speaker 4: And I did not harm her one drop because nobody 637 00:38:31,716 --> 00:38:33,276 Speaker 4: knows what day to do it, and she was always 638 00:38:33,276 --> 00:38:34,796 Speaker 4: going to do it on some arbitrary day. 639 00:38:34,996 --> 00:38:36,876 Speaker 3: I just picked the arbitrary day. 640 00:38:37,156 --> 00:38:39,556 Speaker 4: So there's a case of maybe it's so optimal, but 641 00:38:39,596 --> 00:38:43,356 Speaker 4: I picked a high EQ if not IQ solution. 642 00:38:43,556 --> 00:38:46,876 Speaker 3: You were protecting your reputation as opposed to just. 643 00:38:46,836 --> 00:38:48,636 Speaker 4: Making my aunt not mad at me. 644 00:38:49,556 --> 00:38:52,796 Speaker 1: He could be cliff astness polar of goalies. He could 645 00:38:52,796 --> 00:38:57,476 Speaker 1: also be Cliff Astna's dutiful nephew. Malcolm glad Bell's first 646 00:38:57,556 --> 00:39:01,196 Speaker 1: rule for living poll a goalie, but be wise enough 647 00:39:01,236 --> 00:39:04,316 Speaker 1: to know that disagreeableness is not a matter of temperament, 648 00:39:04,836 --> 00:39:07,516 Speaker 1: It is a choice. I'd love that you take calls 649 00:39:07,556 --> 00:39:12,036 Speaker 1: from your aunt about currency and what did he say next? 650 00:39:12,516 --> 00:39:15,076 Speaker 4: Anyone who's successful that won't take calls from their crazy 651 00:39:15,116 --> 00:39:18,436 Speaker 4: aunt is no friend of mine. 652 00:39:19,476 --> 00:39:24,676 Speaker 1: Malcolm Gladwell's second rule for living. Two Down, ten to go. 653 00:39:35,316 --> 00:39:39,356 Speaker 1: Revisionist History is a Panoply production. The senior producer is 654 00:39:39,436 --> 00:39:43,516 Speaker 1: mil Obel with Jacob Smith and Camille Baptista. Our editor 655 00:39:43,596 --> 00:39:47,716 Speaker 1: is Julia Barton. Lawn Williams is our engineer. Fact checking 656 00:39:47,756 --> 00:39:51,956 Speaker 1: by Beth Johnson. Original music by Luis Garra. Special thanks 657 00:39:51,996 --> 00:39:56,756 Speaker 1: to Andy Bauers and Jacob Weisberg. I'm Malcolm Gladwein. 658 00:40:04,916 --> 00:40:06,556 Speaker 3: What makes you a good poke player? 659 00:40:08,516 --> 00:40:12,836 Speaker 5: Two things. There's just the basic math and theory, which 660 00:40:13,316 --> 00:40:15,436 Speaker 5: I mean why once anybody can learn, but if you're 661 00:40:15,556 --> 00:40:18,516 Speaker 5: quiet you can learn it. But the real thing that 662 00:40:18,596 --> 00:40:22,956 Speaker 5: sets ship part is something I think you have to 663 00:40:22,956 --> 00:40:25,076 Speaker 5: do by traditional wisdom. You have to learn this in 664 00:40:25,116 --> 00:40:27,996 Speaker 5: your teens. While your brain is still forming and you 665 00:40:28,036 --> 00:40:30,796 Speaker 5: have to do it under in can sleep deprivation. So 666 00:40:30,836 --> 00:40:33,596 Speaker 5: we do these seventy two hour sessions with maybe a 667 00:40:33,596 --> 00:40:38,396 Speaker 5: few powered amps in between, and you pushing every sense 668 00:40:38,436 --> 00:40:40,196 Speaker 5: you have in the world, sometimes more than every sense 669 00:40:40,196 --> 00:40:41,556 Speaker 5: you have in the world in the middle of the pod. 670 00:40:42,476 --> 00:40:47,036 Speaker 5: And that developed certain mental abilities that the way I 671 00:40:47,076 --> 00:40:49,836 Speaker 5: think about it is, I think you managed to harness 672 00:40:49,876 --> 00:40:53,756 Speaker 5: the processing power of your unconscious brain so that you 673 00:40:53,796 --> 00:40:56,196 Speaker 5: are not staring at people in the table and sort 674 00:40:56,196 --> 00:41:00,436 Speaker 5: of you know, enumerating tells to you that person, you know, moods, chit. 675 00:41:01,236 --> 00:41:04,836 Speaker 5: Your unconscious brain is so much better at noticing what 676 00:41:04,916 --> 00:41:07,516 Speaker 5: people do, kind of like blink, you know, you just 677 00:41:07,636 --> 00:41:10,556 Speaker 5: look at somebody and you don't know he holds the 678 00:41:10,596 --> 00:41:12,636 Speaker 5: ace and jack you know, it's not doesn't tell you that, 679 00:41:12,756 --> 00:41:16,596 Speaker 5: but it says this guy is afraid to lose, or 680 00:41:17,036 --> 00:41:20,836 Speaker 5: this guy is afraid of being bluffed. And it tells 681 00:41:20,836 --> 00:41:23,116 Speaker 5: you what they're going to do if you do something. 682 00:41:23,156 --> 00:41:24,916 Speaker 5: So it tells you when you can push and they're 683 00:41:24,916 --> 00:41:27,356 Speaker 5: going to fold, or when you can draw them in 684 00:41:28,556 --> 00:41:30,076 Speaker 5: and they're going to go high. 685 00:41:30,276 --> 00:41:33,676 Speaker 1: This outtake goes on for a long time. If that 686 00:41:33,756 --> 00:41:35,516 Speaker 1: bothers you. I don't care anymore. 687 00:41:36,196 --> 00:41:39,876 Speaker 5: It is a curse. I would never recommend to somebody 688 00:41:40,076 --> 00:41:43,796 Speaker 5: do it. Yes, you can make money from it, but 689 00:41:45,476 --> 00:41:47,996 Speaker 5: it strips away a lot of illusions. Right, It's a 690 00:41:47,996 --> 00:41:49,996 Speaker 5: lot more pleasant in life to believe that there are 691 00:41:49,996 --> 00:41:53,996 Speaker 5: things like love and friendship and honor once you're ruthlessly 692 00:41:54,036 --> 00:41:56,876 Speaker 5: strip all that away and just look very objectively how 693 00:41:56,916 --> 00:42:01,436 Speaker 5: people act. There's probably something that psychopaths do. The world's 694 00:42:01,476 --> 00:42:04,796 Speaker 5: a bleak place, so it's kind of a dangerous road 695 00:42:04,836 --> 00:42:05,396 Speaker 5: to go down. 696 00:42:05,756 --> 00:42:09,076 Speaker 3: Do you feel like you went down that road? Yeah? Yeah, 697 00:42:09,316 --> 00:42:10,596 Speaker 3: how did it affect your life? 698 00:42:11,836 --> 00:42:15,516 Speaker 5: What it meant is that you're bleak, You're just kind 699 00:42:15,516 --> 00:42:20,676 Speaker 5: of you know, you don't really trust anybody in a 700 00:42:20,716 --> 00:42:22,316 Speaker 5: sense you trust them, you know what they're going to do, 701 00:42:22,956 --> 00:42:24,956 Speaker 5: and because you know what they're going to do, it 702 00:42:25,236 --> 00:42:28,396 Speaker 5: just h I guess it almost makes you treat them 703 00:42:28,396 --> 00:42:31,276 Speaker 5: like robots that you can predict what they're going to do, 704 00:42:31,316 --> 00:42:35,956 Speaker 5: you know their program, and therefore you can't really trust that. 705 00:42:35,996 --> 00:42:38,036 Speaker 5: There's a lot of in friendship and honor or anything 706 00:42:38,116 --> 00:42:41,636 Speaker 5: like that. So that's one of the reasons to move 707 00:42:41,676 --> 00:42:45,156 Speaker 5: to finance. I actually moved from poker to sports betting, 708 00:42:45,596 --> 00:42:46,596 Speaker 5: and then to finance