Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene
Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. I'm
Speaker 1: very pleased to say that our next guest is Professor
Speaker 1: Robert Schiller, Noboud Laureate and Yale professor. Back in a
Speaker 1: year two thousand, at the hind of the dot com bubble,
Speaker 1: Professor Silla wrote a very well known book, Irrational Exuberance. Professor,
Speaker 1: I wonder if you had to write that book today
Speaker 1: and someone said to you can't write about tech stocks,
Speaker 1: You've got to write about bitcoin. What would be in
Speaker 1: that book? Professor? Every edition of that book came out
Speaker 1: with a new bubble and a different market, So yes,
Speaker 1: it would be bitcoin. Bitcoin is Uh. They captured the
Speaker 1: world's imagination. I was I was in Russia the other
Speaker 1: day and there every It's everywhere. Uh. It shows how
Speaker 1: contagion of ideas can spread across the entire world and
Speaker 1: affect markets. How do you define a spectative bubble in
Speaker 1: something like bitcoin, at least with the tank companies. You
Speaker 1: could have sat there and said, well, here's the pe ratio.
Speaker 1: There isn't really much of an e and this is
Speaker 1: why it's a speculative mania. What do you do with bitcoin? Well,
Speaker 1: I've been starting to think about that. So the bitcoin
Speaker 1: enthusiasts say it will be a medium of exchange. It
Speaker 1: would be money. So let's take that and go assume
Speaker 1: that it replaces money completely. I mean, is that a dream?
Speaker 1: And then I would go to some of the demand
Speaker 1: for money models that economists have made, but the velocity
Speaker 1: of bitcoin might be totally different. So I could try
Speaker 1: to get a fundamental value for a bitcoin, but it
Speaker 1: would be largely just guess work. I was speaking to
Speaker 1: someone just last night and they said, I cannot be
Speaker 1: invested in something I have zero risk tolerance for something
Speaker 1: when I don't know the difference White trades at four
Speaker 1: hundred four thousand or forty thousand. And then that seems
Speaker 1: to be the way traditional Wall Street minds think about
Speaker 1: about bitcoin. But this isn't a traditional Wall Street product.
Speaker 1: This is a retail product. I think we we here's
Speaker 1: a job for a young analyst figure out very much so,
Speaker 1: but the problem is it's going to be depending on
Speaker 1: assumptions about a wild future. I would say, let's have
Speaker 1: like five different pe ratios and they'll all be all
Speaker 1: over the map, and we still want Professor Paul Donovan
Speaker 1: over at UBS said, bubbles are irrational, so don't try
Speaker 1: and use rational analysis to to work out when this
Speaker 1: thing is going to burst? Is that decent advice for
Speaker 1: anyone on the outside looking in. But you want to
Speaker 1: know what it will burst too, so you have to
Speaker 1: have some idea when it's overpriced and when it's underpriced. Uh.
Speaker 1: Another thing about the bubble metaphor, which is unfortunate is
Speaker 1: it tends to the metaphor of a bubble. You know,
Speaker 1: a soap bubble burst and it does and come back, right,
Speaker 1: you can get a different bubble, but you can't get
Speaker 1: the old one back. But in financial markets, they're never
Speaker 1: quite done. Bitcoin burst in what was and I we
Speaker 1: most of us thought it was done. But here it
Speaker 1: comes roaring back. So it might burst again and come
Speaker 1: up again. Uh. That's why I don't know if I
Speaker 1: like the word epidemic. It's a expeculative epidemic. That's better,
Speaker 1: just in terms of how you characterize the bubble. To
Speaker 1: some people would define it by the order of which
Speaker 1: retail gets in Wall Street first, retail last, the retail
Speaker 1: investor marks the top Wall Street starts getting out. Can
Speaker 1: you apply the same thoughts to bitcoin when it seems
Speaker 1: to be the other way around, the retails first and
Speaker 1: Wall Street second. Well, you know, in my study of
Speaker 1: the difference between individual and professional investors, uh, I find
Speaker 1: it when it comes to things like this, they're not
Speaker 1: that different. Professional investors work well when they have something
Speaker 1: that they can analyze, but there's nothing clear to analyze here,
Speaker 1: so I think they may be just as vulnerable to
Speaker 1: bubbles as retail. Just as a final comment on this, professor,
Speaker 1: do you worry about the infrastructure that not enough thought
Speaker 1: and time has been given to having these kind of
Speaker 1: things trade on in exchange? As a future product? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure it was a good idea to launch
Speaker 1: future because, uh, it's still not a reputable product. It's
Speaker 1: still wild. On the other hand, launching your futures market
Speaker 1: might help calm this market. It's been extremely volatile and
Speaker 1: generating futures There's been a lot of alarm that generating
Speaker 1: the futures markets will generate even more volatility, But I
Speaker 1: think it would probably more likely settled markets down a
Speaker 1: little bit. Professor Robertshi and Abou laureate and Yale professor.
Speaker 1: We want to go to UH Washington in a sense
Speaker 1: because it is the number two story this week. Um,
Speaker 1: we'll have the FED down there, and of course the
Speaker 1: tax debate and the efforts to put together a spending bill.
Speaker 1: Isaac Boltanski gets paid to follow all that for Compass Point.
Speaker 1: He's a senior vice president there and he joins us. Now,
Speaker 1: good morning, Isaac, Good morning. UH. The another analyst I
Speaker 1: won't give a name, but basically said, you know, there's
Speaker 1: a couple of things that are going to be happening
Speaker 1: this week. Um, the Conference Committy is going to have
Speaker 1: a photo op and the President is going to give
Speaker 1: a speech on Wednesday about taxes. But that's not the
Speaker 1: thing to watch because the real action is behind the scenes,
Speaker 1: right as they as they try to conduct a math
Speaker 1: exercise and make all the parts fit financially. Sure, I
Speaker 1: think it's important to not miss the forest for the
Speaker 1: trees here. There's going to be a week of speculation,
Speaker 1: political theater, and dubious details. But at the end of
Speaker 1: this week, I think we're going to have a really
Speaker 1: good picture of where the tax bill is, and the
Speaker 1: GOP is pushing to actually have this conference canna be
Speaker 1: done by Friday in the hopes of having something to
Speaker 1: the President's desk by Wednesday of next week. Now, I
Speaker 1: think that timeline is likely to slip, but it's realistic
Speaker 1: given that everything to date has been done at warp pace.
Speaker 1: When we get a bill, a two part question. One
Speaker 1: is anybody going to really know what's in it? And
Speaker 1: to how many mistakes will there be? I read a
Speaker 1: funny story over the weekend. A group of tax accountants
Speaker 1: got together and put together the Tax Accountant's Guide to
Speaker 1: Avoiding Taxes based on what was in the bills so far. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think, Michael, you're absolutely right that this bill is
Speaker 1: being written at such a hurried pace that there will
Speaker 1: undoubtedly be a slew of mistakes and loopholes and unintended consequences.
Speaker 1: And a concerning theme that that I have when thinking
Speaker 1: about risks for is that, uh, I'm not sure this
Speaker 1: Congress will have the capacity to come back and enact
Speaker 1: a legislative fixed bill for some of those loopholes. So
Speaker 1: the bill that ultimately gets passed into law later this
Speaker 1: year is something I think we're going to have to
Speaker 1: live with for quite some time, which is concerning because
Speaker 1: it will be riddled with mistakes, loopholes, and untimely consequences.
Speaker 1: I think it feels like whole roads lead to and
Speaker 1: lead from the corporate tax rate and whatever that may
Speaker 1: well be. Both bills have it. At the President kind
Speaker 1: of hinted at that this number and twenty two kind
Speaker 1: of came out of nowhere. Where is your base case
Speaker 1: right now? Is that the twenty or the twenty two? Sure?
Speaker 1: I think that the framing this is a is a
Speaker 1: math ex size is exactly right, And because it's a
Speaker 1: math exercise and there are procedural limitations in the Senate
Speaker 1: regarding um UH revenue neutrality, our view is that the
Speaker 1: final rate is going to settle somewhere closer to and
Speaker 1: will likely be effective in You put those two concessions
Speaker 1: together and right there you've picked up about three billion
Speaker 1: and extra revenue to fill in gaps elsewhere in the
Speaker 1: in the bill. So the other thing we need to
Speaker 1: work out one once you've worked out in the corporate tax, right,
Speaker 1: is what happens with salt deductions. There seems to be
Speaker 1: some flexibility around this. If you talk to people in
Speaker 1: the administration, what do you think that comes out looking like, Isaac,
Speaker 1: I think this is something that's important for your listeners.
Speaker 1: In particular, the decimation of the salt deduction is something
Speaker 1: that um we've heard a fair amount from from our
Speaker 1: clients who live on the coast in particular and high
Speaker 1: code in high tax state. There has been a deal
Speaker 1: that would allow for up to ten thousand dollars worth
Speaker 1: of property taxes to be deducted. But what's interesting is
Speaker 1: that over the past week or so, we've started to
Speaker 1: hear more and more chatter from key stakeholders that there
Speaker 1: might be a deal to allow at least some degree
Speaker 1: of income to be deducted as well. Too early to
Speaker 1: tell how that will look or exactly what the mechanism
Speaker 1: will be, but that would be a win for for
Speaker 1: I would think reticent Republicans in high tax states, and
Speaker 1: also the mortgage industry that's been concerned that the decimation
Speaker 1: of salt would make the mortgage interest seduction, which has
Speaker 1: survived relatively useless. I want to uh do a shameless
Speaker 1: plug for Sahil coporor congressional correspondent for Bloomberg news story
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Today, asking the question will middle class
Speaker 1: folks notice their tax cut? He points out in two
Speaker 1: thousand nine there was a one year tax break worth
Speaker 1: eight dollars for married couples in working households, people got
Speaker 1: about oh fifteen dollars a week, and of the people
Speaker 1: who were surveying thought their taxes had gone up. Nobody
Speaker 1: noticed that they got a tax break. So is this
Speaker 1: bill that's being counted as the biggest thing of all
Speaker 1: time by the president actually going to be a win
Speaker 1: for Republicans. Well, right now, it's polling terribly and it's
Speaker 1: hard to believe that that polling is going to improve.
Speaker 1: We're going to have to wait and see though, until
Speaker 1: probably the second quarter of next year, because let's say
Speaker 1: this passes this year, and that means the individual rate
Speaker 1: reductions go into fact the beginning of next year. The
Speaker 1: i R s will be directed to actually change it's
Speaker 1: withholding amounts at the beginning of next year, and so
Speaker 1: there's a potential for folks to actually see some change
Speaker 1: in their own pocketbooks. The magnitude and the political ramifications
Speaker 1: yet to be seen. That I did want to come
Speaker 1: to you on why this is polling side badly. Is
Speaker 1: it the content at the bill? Although way it's been communicated,
Speaker 1: I think it's all the above, Johnath, I really do.
Speaker 1: I think it's it's the It's the tone, the tenor
Speaker 1: the speed, and the undeniable focus primarily on a corporate
Speaker 1: rate reduction. Everything else is peripheral in this bill. The
Speaker 1: corporate rate reduction is the temple. So, Mike, why have
Speaker 1: we got this focus on the corporate side of the
Speaker 1: bill when this was meant to be a consumer focused,
Speaker 1: get the middle class of America tax cut. It doesn't
Speaker 1: seem to me that many people are convinced by that, Mike.
Speaker 1: I think the politics were that it was supposed to
Speaker 1: be at least, you know, the publicity was that it
Speaker 1: was supposed to be. But the intent all along was
Speaker 1: to bring down the corporate tax rate ISAAC very quickly.
Speaker 1: Just because we're so focused on taxes doesn't mean there
Speaker 1: aren't other things Congress has to do. They punted the
Speaker 1: the spending bill, the Continuing Resolution into next week. Are
Speaker 1: we going to see a government shut down at some point?
Speaker 1: My sense is that if the tax bill gets done
Speaker 1: the middle of next week, the odds are high that
Speaker 1: there will be a shutdown at the end of the week.
Speaker 1: If the tax bill isn't yet done by the December
Speaker 1: twenty deadline, then there'll be another short term punt, because
Speaker 1: getting the tax bill is one through ten on the
Speaker 1: to do list for Republicans right now. Do Democrats keep
Speaker 1: going along with the idea of punting it, you know,
Speaker 1: putting off the day of reckoning? I think they will,
Speaker 1: but with increasing levels of political concessions necessary. Um, look there,
Speaker 1: I I firmly believe there will be a shutdown at
Speaker 1: some point over the next few weeks. It's really just
Speaker 1: a question to figure out figuring out when the tax
Speaker 1: bill will get done, and then we can go from
Speaker 1: there on prognosticating regarding the next shutdown. Well, we will
Speaker 1: get back to you for prognostications and as things happen.
Speaker 1: All right, Isaac Boltanski with a Compass Point investment, Thanks
Speaker 1: for joining us this morning. I want to know when
Speaker 1: Varaj Patavi, I g f X strategist who joins us
Speaker 1: on the telephone now, is going to start covering bitcoin
Speaker 1: and this regular effects wrap. Does this come into your
Speaker 1: world varrage or does it not matter yet? It's starting
Speaker 1: to come into a world, but not not so much.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't call it a currency just and for now,
Speaker 1: it's training like an asset, right, so if I'm an
Speaker 1: EEx strategist, it's not it's not necessarily a currency, but
Speaker 1: it's definitely what it does only one of the things.
Speaker 1: We haven't done a lot of work here, admittedly, but
Speaker 1: we are starting to take a look at it closely.
Speaker 1: It's having knock on implications for certain markets, all right.
Speaker 1: If you look at it from the Chinese remembee market,
Speaker 1: you start to see sort of the forward points trading off.
Speaker 1: When when you sort of saw bitcoin futures exchanges closing
Speaker 1: earlier this year. Similarly, when Zimbabwe were sort of you know,
Speaker 1: you had the elections around noise around there, you sort
Speaker 1: of Bitcoin having invitations for the African currencies around it.
Speaker 1: So it's starting to have knock on effects and it's
Speaker 1: definitely more work that we could do, but as a
Speaker 1: as a currency, when just not they're labeling that okay.
Speaker 1: So Valence today, of course brought you by Khne Resinic Accounting,
Speaker 1: Tax Advisory, Look Ahead, Gain inside, Imagine more. The professionals
Speaker 1: at khon Resinic can help your business breakthrough. Find out
Speaker 1: more at con resin dot com, so we can move
Speaker 1: off from G ten plus one and just concentrate on
Speaker 1: G ten. I guess for arg the pain trade of
Speaker 1: this year so far has been dollar strength that did
Speaker 1: not come. Dollar strength are pretty much everyone called for
Speaker 1: but did not materialize. Do you see the dollar getting
Speaker 1: the kind of bit in seen that so many people
Speaker 1: hoped and predicted it would in seventeen, Well, not at all.
Speaker 1: I think this year was the learning point for markets.
Speaker 1: I think we fell into a trump flation trap earlier
Speaker 1: this year. A lot of promises that the U S
Speaker 1: economy would be reflating, potentially generating three trend US growth
Speaker 1: two above two sent US inflation. We just haven't seen
Speaker 1: the evidence in the underlying U S data to to
Speaker 1: convince you that the dollar has another sort of cyclical upside.
Speaker 1: And so for US we see three broad reasons why
Speaker 1: we expect this dollar cycle to continue turning lower. One,
Speaker 1: the economics of a strong dollar doesn't make sense based
Speaker 1: on this sort of tax reform bill. For US, we
Speaker 1: focus on the sort of textbook negative, which is the
Speaker 1: fact that you're increasing the fiscal deathit without changing the
Speaker 1: long run trend growth in the US. Second, the politics
Speaker 1: of the strong dollar doesn't make sense as well. We've
Speaker 1: heard the president say he doesn't want a stronger dollar.
Speaker 1: We actually did some analysis and we looked in our
Speaker 1: outlook that the second and third terms of a Republican
Speaker 1: presidency is actually outright negative for the dollar. Now this
Speaker 1: maybe coincidence, but if you actually look at sort of
Speaker 1: some of the retric you here from past previous Republican administrations,
Speaker 1: plus the fact that you have midterm elections coming up
Speaker 1: as well, both could be a negative I guess politically
Speaker 1: for the dollar. And the third and most important point
Speaker 1: that we we point to, and this is what happened
Speaker 1: in twenty seventeen. The rest of the world is catching
Speaker 1: up to a late US cycle, and that's where when
Speaker 1: the rest of the world grows is out performing the
Speaker 1: US growth, that the dollar will take its kew from that.
Speaker 1: And we actually think that, you know, you've got a
Speaker 1: three to five percent narrowing also decline of the dollar
Speaker 1: just for every percentage point out performance in the US
Speaker 1: of the rest of the world from the U S economy,
Speaker 1: and that's where the dynamics will be early next year. Ah,
Speaker 1: I was gonna say who's better. I mean, do you
Speaker 1: want to hold Euros even though the BCB isn't going
Speaker 1: to be raising rates U and so the interest rate
Speaker 1: differential still favors the United States. You want to hold
Speaker 1: the end because people hold the end. What pair does
Speaker 1: best against the dollar? Well, it's certainly two sets of currencies,
Speaker 1: one where there's stronger growth potential, and there's certainly attractive
Speaker 1: investment environments in the emerging markets. We pinpoints say e
Speaker 1: M as a sort of a preferred investment destination going
Speaker 1: next year, as well as Central and Eastern Europe. But
Speaker 1: when it comes to the Euro, I think there's still
Speaker 1: a bit of juice left from this ECB story going
Speaker 1: into next summer. Certainly, what from an FX market which
Speaker 1: prices over an infinite time horizon. Yeah, sure the US
Speaker 1: to be won't be hiking next summer, but certainly they
Speaker 1: will start to let the foot off the pedal when
Speaker 1: it comes to talking about potential rate hikes. You know,
Speaker 1: the economy should be sound enough for them to start
Speaker 1: at least considering it. I mean, maybe it might be
Speaker 1: a late story, early nine story for the actual rate
Speaker 1: hikes to come through. At least the consideration should be
Speaker 1: euro doll at one in our view, is there anything
Speaker 1: that you see in the Eurozone economy that suggests that
Speaker 1: core inflation is going to pick up anytime soon for ours?
Speaker 1: Because if that's what's moving things at the ECB, that
Speaker 1: ain't moving much spot on us. But it's kind of
Speaker 1: like a global phenomena right right now, right core inflation
Speaker 1: across the d G tent spaces is there is no
Speaker 1: sort of underlying inflation pressure. So it makes the likes
Speaker 1: of the Eurozone and Japan less of an anomaly. Um,
Speaker 1: there's if you look at it by logic, there's a
Speaker 1: lot more slack in the Eurozone labor markets now. We
Speaker 1: I wrote once earlier this year suggesting that banking on
Speaker 1: the Phillips curve is a risky strategy. But it is.
Speaker 1: And but if if there's anywhere where at least you're
Speaker 1: going to get a couple of percentage points of positive surprises,
Speaker 1: it's probably the Eurozone relative to the US right now.
Speaker 1: And that's where the euro dollar view comes in. Well,
Speaker 1: you get US fundamentals good, um, turned growth better um,
Speaker 1: the real neutral rate in the US higher than in Europe.
Speaker 1: So how long can the dollar trend down? Certainly I
Speaker 1: think that's the euro dollar you has, it's sort of
Speaker 1: one one potential repricing opportunity, and then after that it's
Speaker 1: kind of a slow burner. I think that's where we've
Speaker 1: we've we've kind of markets are priced in the relative
Speaker 1: Eurozone and US dynamics. It's it's a trade wayed dollar
Speaker 1: that kind of has we will lose ground against the
Speaker 1: pro growth currencies, especially the emerging markets. You know, we
Speaker 1: are titled for the FX was happy how we do
Speaker 1: think that the current goldilocks gross investment environment will continue
Speaker 1: at least for the next six to my nine months.
Speaker 1: Like with any good happy hours, they'll probably end at
Speaker 1: some point. But that's but that's the late stories for it,
Speaker 1: and when they end, you want to get out before
Speaker 1: everyone else tries to get out of the mess starts.
Speaker 1: For arch Plateau, I n g FX strategist. You're listening
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Surveillance. We're talking with Dan rist Miller. He
Speaker 1: is the chief academist at Strategious. Uh don I was
Speaker 1: noticing that um Larry Summers yesterday wrote a piece of
Speaker 1: to the U S Academy is on a sugar high
Speaker 1: right now because the signs of marketing economic strength are
Speaker 1: largely unrelated to government policy. Do you agree with that assessment, Well,
Speaker 1: we haven't done much in the way of policy, at
Speaker 1: least on the fiscal side. Yeah. I think there's some
Speaker 1: hope that maybe there's some aspirational moves. If we look
Speaker 1: at consumer confidence, that's at we're near highs. If we
Speaker 1: look at business confidence, small businesses are saying they're more optimistic,
Speaker 1: even c e O s If we look at the
Speaker 1: Business Roundtable survey have said they're a bit more optimistics.
Speaker 1: Maybe there's some expectation of policy. But I think it's
Speaker 1: fair to say we haven't had much actual policy put
Speaker 1: in place yet yet. I do think confidence matters, and
Speaker 1: it matters if we get some follow throughs and tax
Speaker 1: bill in a few weeks here, depending on the structure
Speaker 1: of it, could matter at least in the short run.
Speaker 1: So well, we'll see how that goes. If we get
Speaker 1: something along the lines of what's been talked about tax
Speaker 1: rate and lower taxes on passed through small businesses to
Speaker 1: the extent that they can use it, do you anticipate
Speaker 1: a lot of business investment is a supply side boost
Speaker 1: going to boost growth. So one thing we're watching is
Speaker 1: whether we get that lower rate in twenty nineteen, so
Speaker 1: there's still some debate on that. I think the better
Speaker 1: in the sense of being more of a boost package
Speaker 1: for growth, would be for that right, even if it's
Speaker 1: not twenty even if it's twenty two or twenty three
Speaker 1: to take effect here in as we move forward here.
Speaker 1: But if it is delayed, I think that you will
Speaker 1: see much less of an immediate impact, which may be obvious,
Speaker 1: but there's a lot of things to be worked out
Speaker 1: in a few things to pay attention to. But we
Speaker 1: should know soon. That's the good news. What is the
Speaker 1: political risk, uh, in the area of government shutdown and
Speaker 1: or the debt ceiling? Those issues punted into the future
Speaker 1: at least next week for the continuing Resolution by Congress,
Speaker 1: and UH it isn't clear when they'll get to the
Speaker 1: debt ceiling. Yeah, that's right, and I honestly wish we
Speaker 1: would just get rid of this item in its entirety,
Speaker 1: but we were stuck with it, and so we've chosen
Speaker 1: a few short term patches. We could have dealt with
Speaker 1: this a few months ago, it was really hard to
Speaker 1: deal with right now in the midst of everything else
Speaker 1: that's going on. So an extension for a little bit
Speaker 1: of time here makes sense, but we're not done and
Speaker 1: it's gonna come back. Government shutdowns aren't something we worry
Speaker 1: too much about. They have a short term impact on growth.
Speaker 1: You can see a modest impact on g d P
Speaker 1: as an example, but often workers are paid eventually, and
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't worry too much about it. One of
Speaker 1: the things that we were talking with Bob Shiller earlier about,
Speaker 1: and of course he's MR Housing the case Shiller Indexes
Speaker 1: and everything, is the impact of the tax deal on housing,
Speaker 1: because if you double the personal exemption, few of people
Speaker 1: will be taking the mortgage credit, and maybe that has
Speaker 1: an effect on how many homes are sold. I'm wondering
Speaker 1: how much of an effect that has on the economy
Speaker 1: on g d P. We haven't seen residential housing have
Speaker 1: a big impact in recent quarters, right, And that's one
Speaker 1: reason we wouldn't expect a big hit, which is housing
Speaker 1: is usually an early cycle variable, but this was a
Speaker 1: very strange cycle. So if we were in year nine
Speaker 1: of a more typical cycle, housing would typically be elevated
Speaker 1: to a point where it could fall. Here, I think
Speaker 1: we've taken two steps forward one step back, So for
Speaker 1: this particular cycle. I think that we're still just moving
Speaker 1: higher in a very very gradual pace. There. It's certainly
Speaker 1: a regional issue. If we look at certain states, certain
Speaker 1: states that may have different deductibility of both the mortgage
Speaker 1: items as well as the state and local taxes, that
Speaker 1: could have a regional hit. But we have to see
Speaker 1: how exactly that gets worked out as it a cap
Speaker 1: is it a total repeal of some of those deductions. Again,
Speaker 1: we will know soon. Uh. The other question, of course,
Speaker 1: besides the Fed and what happens in Congress as far
Speaker 1: as taxes, is we're going into an election year, which
Speaker 1: usually provides some volatility. What we're looking at a vix
Speaker 1: you know, basically in the nines. Do you think it
Speaker 1: picks up in the coming year or has Wall Street
Speaker 1: inured itself to all the political storm and wrong and
Speaker 1: isn't gonna really worry until maybe we get to November.
Speaker 1: I have to think we see some pickup. I mean,
Speaker 1: we're at levels that are so low that it won't
Speaker 1: take much here to get some volatility. And we do
Speaker 1: have some items, whether it's on the trade side, whether
Speaker 1: some of those packages that we've dont all Right, Don
Speaker 1: rist Feller, thank you, for being with listening. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to
Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer.
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio a s.