WEBVTT - Opening Week Optimism 0:00:02.040 --> 0:00:07.070 Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly 0:00:07.130 --> 0:00:13.270 source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice. All right, 0:00:13.350 --> 0:00:17.250 what's up, everyone? Welcome back. The whistles have blown, and 0:00:17.310 --> 0:00:21.700 we are kicking off already smack in the middle of 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:25.980 NFL Week 1. It is Fantasy Football Weekly, the very 0:00:26.060 --> 0:00:31.440 first in-season edition of 2026, and boy, are we excited. 0:00:32.130 --> 0:00:35.590 I'm your host, John Leguiza, flying solo today in the 0:00:35.620 --> 0:00:39.180 Millennial Falcon. Jake Trowbridge getting a little bit of R & 0:00:39.140 --> 0:00:44.159 R for the long road ahead. But I got you. Man, 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:48.559 grab a snack and a drink. Get comfy. We got 0:00:48.580 --> 0:00:50.230 a long one. We're going to be going over every 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:55.150 single game, fantasy news and notes, advanced stats, application execution, 0:00:55.610 --> 0:00:59.850 starts and sits, bold calls, and everything in between with 0:00:59.870 --> 0:01:02.610 yours truly. All right, hit me up on the socials 0:01:02.670 --> 0:01:06.970 at John McGaza. Any questions and feedback is welcome, as always. 0:01:07.370 --> 0:01:10.759 But without any further ado, let's just dive on into it. 0:01:11.030 --> 0:01:12.850 So much work to do and so little time to 0:01:12.890 --> 0:01:16.780 do it. We're starting off. It's New Orleans Saints heading 0:01:17.020 --> 0:01:21.819 to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions. In Detroit, 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:26.180 New Orleans, a very heavy underdog, right? And again, I 0:01:26.540 --> 0:01:29.220 know it's not a betting show. It's fantasy. But I 0:01:29.500 --> 0:01:34.560 always advise folks, to use the sport book as a guide. 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.420 You know, it'll point you towards where the high expectations 0:01:38.760 --> 0:01:42.050 for scoring is. And again, with that 49 and a 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:46.729 half point team total, which is the second highest outside 0:01:46.830 --> 0:01:51.309 of Tampa and Cincinnati, letting us know some fireworks to 0:01:51.330 --> 0:01:54.850 be expected. Saints on the underdog side have a 22 0:01:54.850 --> 0:01:59.380 and point implied team total. which is not bad. I 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:01.940 think the main question for the Saints has to start 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:08.150 under center with Tyler Shock. He came on late in 0:02:08.169 --> 0:02:11.870 the season last year and really gave us a back-end 0:02:11.990 --> 0:02:17.510 QB1 performance after that bye. I think the general public 0:02:17.530 --> 0:02:21.030 has probably been a little too hard on Shock, frankly, 0:02:21.490 --> 0:02:24.860 as a rookie, hitting the ground running and trying to 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:27.919 board the moving train. All these things are very difficult 0:02:28.139 --> 0:02:32.850 also trying to understand the fast moving Helen Moore offense. 0:02:32.870 --> 0:02:38.390 And that is a real thing for fantasy gamers like ourselves. 0:02:38.810 --> 0:02:41.049 Saints read more than 63 plays a game last year. 0:02:41.070 --> 0:02:43.030 That's where you want to be. Now, a lot of 0:02:43.050 --> 0:02:47.120 the macro efficiency stats did suffer and doing the rattler 0:02:47.180 --> 0:02:51.459 thing and trying to get Tyler shock acclimated. And then 0:02:51.620 --> 0:02:55.520 also maybe more than anything, not having a run game 0:02:56.060 --> 0:02:59.160 is always going to be really detrimental for young quarterbacks, 0:02:59.220 --> 0:03:01.920 New Orleans as a team, just bottom of the barrel 0:03:01.940 --> 0:03:07.030 across the board. Below 95 rushing yards per game, three 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:09.530 and three quarter yards per rush. I mean, this is terrible. 0:03:10.090 --> 0:03:12.310 I think they might've been bottom five in yards before 0:03:12.370 --> 0:03:16.110 contact per rush at 0.9 success rate below 36 and 0:03:16.150 --> 0:03:19.570 explosive rush rate right around five. All those are bottom five, 0:03:19.610 --> 0:03:23.090 bottom eight metrics. You go and sign Travis H and, 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:26.400 I think I got that one right this time. And 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:28.960 he's going to bolster the room. Say what you want 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:32.250 about him, whether or not he deserves the draft capital. 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:34.540 I thought for fantasy drafts where he was going was 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:38.070 perfectly fair, especially when he was starting to drift down 0:03:38.130 --> 0:03:41.830 towards the fourth round. So I think the pieces surrounding 0:03:41.890 --> 0:03:46.210 Shuck are really good. Olave is a real wide receiver 0:03:46.310 --> 0:03:52.040 one piece. A-chan is a definite start. I think, shuck, 0:03:52.060 --> 0:03:54.120 we're going to have our questions, but I think this 0:03:54.210 --> 0:03:58.030 is one of the places where you're thinking about starting. Detroit, 0:03:58.050 --> 0:04:00.350 the defense is banged up in the secondary, and they 0:04:00.370 --> 0:04:03.550 weren't great overall. Plus, you get the fast track and 0:04:03.570 --> 0:04:06.880 a very high likelihood that Detroit's going to score again, 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:11.280 you know, reflected in the high implied team talk. So 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.420 kind of always using the books just to be like 0:04:14.460 --> 0:04:17.060 a guiding light for us. I think it's always going 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:19.250 to help. You don't use it as an end-all, be-all. 0:04:19.940 --> 0:04:23.500 But again, that guiding light really matters. So last thing 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:25.620 for New Orleans, because I think it's pretty much wheels 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:28.870 up for all our guys. One of my sleepers for 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:31.590 this week has got to be Devon Vele, who in 0:04:31.610 --> 0:04:33.630 the few games that we saw him play with shock, 0:04:34.510 --> 0:04:39.390 gave you legit wide receiver two output. Tyson is out. 0:04:40.010 --> 0:04:43.729 And while Jawan Johnson is pretty good, I think they're 0:04:43.750 --> 0:04:46.430 going to serve different roles. And I think, again, they 0:04:46.470 --> 0:04:49.680 could all get home against a team like Detroit. You 0:04:49.710 --> 0:04:51.570 know Kellen Moore is just going to keep his foot 0:04:51.620 --> 0:04:55.320 on the gas. That's kind of his modus operandi anyway. 0:04:56.060 --> 0:04:58.080 So against a team like Detroit, we want to go 0:04:58.140 --> 0:04:59.800 get it. I really wanted to make sure to bring 0:04:59.920 --> 0:05:02.920 up Philae in this one because I think that's a 0:05:02.980 --> 0:05:04.280 name not a lot of people are going to be 0:05:04.300 --> 0:05:06.380 looking at. And I know it's week one. Our teams 0:05:06.420 --> 0:05:09.220 are mostly healthy. And maybe you're not starting him. You 0:05:09.260 --> 0:05:14.520 should already. Look what happened to him. Tribbling down and 0:05:14.580 --> 0:05:18.140 Donald down. We want to be ready for injuries. I'm 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:22.550 always churning. the back end of my roster. It's usually 0:05:22.610 --> 0:05:24.490 not too many wideouts, but I think Vele is the 0:05:24.529 --> 0:05:26.750 kind of guy, if you're going to hold one, maybe 0:05:26.770 --> 0:05:29.000 you should. And it's got a chance to be a 0:05:29.150 --> 0:05:34.520 flex-worthy play this weekend. Detroit probably just as crystal clear. 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.580 You know, not every team is going to be. You 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:39.880 want to start golf at home. You want to start 0:05:39.900 --> 0:05:44.110 golf indoors. Check both those boxes. Obviously, if you're not 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:47.309 starting Jameer Gibbs, you're doing at least one thing wrong, 0:05:47.350 --> 0:05:53.239 maybe two, maybe 10, actually. Amon Rod, ditto. Jameson Williams, ditto. 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:57.260 Sam Laporta, you know, I think you have to start him. 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:00.380 I always worry about these guys. I don't mean to 0:06:00.920 --> 0:06:04.980 clump Laporta in with the catch-and-fall tight ends. But anytime 0:06:05.020 --> 0:06:08.820 we're dealing with back-end TE1s, there's always a chance that 0:06:08.860 --> 0:06:11.900 that could go wrong. New Orleans also did a pretty 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.590 good job defending tight ends last year, allowing just seven 0:06:15.630 --> 0:06:19.010 PPR points a game. just over five receptions a game, 0:06:19.050 --> 0:06:21.190 and that's not to the tight end one. That's to 0:06:21.230 --> 0:06:24.409 the position. So I think you're going to start Laporta 0:06:24.430 --> 0:06:27.000 because if you draft him, you probably don't have a 0:06:27.060 --> 0:06:30.000 better replacement on us, of course, and we're going to 0:06:30.020 --> 0:06:32.679 get to that. You could add Michael Mayer. I'd probably 0:06:32.779 --> 0:06:35.480 rather have Michael Mayer than Laporta. I'm not sure if 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:40.070 that's sacrilege or not. But he's a guy that we've 0:06:40.089 --> 0:06:42.030 seen fill in as a real tight end one in 0:06:42.430 --> 0:06:44.469 the absence of Brock Bowers, and you're going to get that. 0:06:45.550 --> 0:06:50.550 So Saints and Lions feeling pretty clear-cut, I'd say, from 0:06:50.570 --> 0:06:53.729 a fantasy lens. We're starting all of our starters. And 0:06:53.770 --> 0:06:55.430 I know I kind of pushed past Shuck. I think 0:06:55.450 --> 0:06:58.790 you want to start him. If you drafted Shuck, he 0:06:58.870 --> 0:07:01.810 might have been part of a two-headed monster. Maybe you 0:07:01.860 --> 0:07:05.920 drafted him with somebody a little later on. Maybe you've 0:07:05.940 --> 0:07:09.320 had him with a Cam Ward or a lesser-known option 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:12.480 or lesser-used option. I think I'm going with Shuck and 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:14.980 a lot of coin flips. If not, and you have 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:17.350 a much better option, I think that's okay too. But 0:07:17.370 --> 0:07:19.830 keep an eye on him in these positive game scripts. 0:07:19.850 --> 0:07:22.790 I think there's a chance this one really shoots out. 0:07:23.270 --> 0:07:25.870 I like New Orleans more than the crowd, and I 0:07:25.930 --> 0:07:28.470 think they could go over that point total. I'm expecting 0:07:28.530 --> 0:07:30.430 a ton of scoring in this one. So I think 0:07:30.450 --> 0:07:34.070 we can pretty much move on again, pretty much straightforward 0:07:34.930 --> 0:07:37.500 for New Orleans and the Saints. Let's pop into the 0:07:37.540 --> 0:07:40.860 next one, down to the dirty, dirty. It's the Atlanta Falcons, 0:07:41.580 --> 0:07:44.480 three-point dogs on the road in Steel City. To face 0:07:44.500 --> 0:07:48.580 the Pittsburgh Steelers, this one has a 41.5 team total. 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:53.620 Pittsburgh employing 23, Atlanta down at 19. That one's actually 0:07:53.660 --> 0:07:58.400 dropped the point, excuse me, the big news, right? Breaking news, 0:07:58.820 --> 0:08:03.670 Tua Tagovailoa is out. Now, not to bash this guy, 0:08:04.430 --> 0:08:08.570 but he very nearly lost a competition where he was 0:08:08.590 --> 0:08:11.790 the only person in it. Sounds like Cooper Rush is 0:08:11.810 --> 0:08:14.460 going to get the rock. Now, we haven't really seen 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:18.160 much from him. I thought he might have been, I 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:22.260 don't know, a backup is not even really going to 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:26.560 be replacement level. But replacement level for a backup with Dallas, 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:29.369 the little bit we saw from him in Baltimore last 0:08:29.410 --> 0:08:33.210 year was kind of atrocious. Now, is it really fair 0:08:33.890 --> 0:08:37.350 to judge a backup against a team like Houston that 0:08:37.390 --> 0:08:40.910 has eaten up especially good offenses that are fully healthy? 0:08:41.410 --> 0:08:44.870 I'm not sure. But Rush performed probably the way you 0:08:44.890 --> 0:08:50.790 might expect. He threw for all of 179 yards, zero touchdowns, 0:08:50.809 --> 0:08:54.820 and three picks. Uh-oh. Again, I don't want to judge 0:08:54.860 --> 0:08:57.699 him just on that. But it's not like Pittsburgh is 0:08:57.740 --> 0:09:01.300 going to do him many favors either. Now, I guess 0:09:01.340 --> 0:09:07.240 we're a far cry from the steel curtain of yesteryear. But. 0:09:07.910 --> 0:09:13.060 Pittsburgh does do the things that makes backups slash inexperienced 0:09:13.420 --> 0:09:18.040 quarterbacks shaking their cleats. Pittsburgh was top five in splash plays. 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:25.270 They're really good with creating pressure through the blitz, getting sacks, 0:09:25.809 --> 0:09:29.030 and converting those pressures into sacks. They were top half 0:09:29.050 --> 0:09:30.790 of the league across the board, 18% blitz, 37.5% pressure, 0:09:30.830 --> 0:09:37.260 goes to 48 sacks and a 19% conversion rate. Now, 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:40.400 there are some holes in the game. I was getting 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:44.179 a little bit excited or as excited as anyone can 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:49.420 get with two on the center. Pittsburgh being aggressive a 0:09:49.450 --> 0:09:52.770 lot of times, that opens up a window of opportunity 0:09:53.750 --> 0:09:56.429 right beyond the line of scrimmage where you can get 0:09:56.490 --> 0:10:00.480 to the slot. Pittsburgh especially vulnerable against the slot line. year, 0:10:00.900 --> 0:10:04.000 bottom five in EPA allowed. They were good for seven catches, 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:09.040 88 yards, and nearly two scores per game in the slot. Again, 0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:14.429 if you were bullish on Atlanta, which now, I mean, 0:10:14.550 --> 0:10:19.750 pretty much objectively and measurably, that's a real thing. can 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:23.680 Rush get the ball out to the slot in the 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:26.079 way that we'd need to? Again, Tua, that's one of 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.900 the things, maybe the only thing that he was really 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:32.900 good at, was getting the ball out quick to playmakers. 0:10:34.190 --> 0:10:37.090 Looking at you, Kyle Pitts, even looking at you, Drake London, 0:10:37.670 --> 0:10:41.250 who Atlanta's been pretty vocal about moving him into that 0:10:41.350 --> 0:10:44.869 slot role, kind of mixing around the usage, trying to 0:10:44.910 --> 0:10:48.400 get him some of those high probability plays. Layup targets, 0:10:49.059 --> 0:10:55.160 really great stuff for PPR drafters. But right now, you 0:10:55.179 --> 0:11:01.329 have to have a baseline confidence to roll out any Falcons. Now, 0:11:01.429 --> 0:11:03.809 into the nuts and bolts of it all, you've got 0:11:03.830 --> 0:11:06.970 to start Bichon. I think you have to start London. 0:11:07.790 --> 0:11:10.120 I even think you probably have to start Pitts, though. 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:14.000 I might take Michael Mayer again. Let's make him the 0:11:14.020 --> 0:11:17.579 benchmark because there is a viable replacement. There might not 0:11:17.820 --> 0:11:21.280 always be. I wouldn't dump Pitts even in a bad 0:11:21.300 --> 0:11:24.500 spot for a player I have no faith in, but 0:11:24.540 --> 0:11:26.780 I would start him for somebody that we've seen with 0:11:26.830 --> 0:11:29.230 tight end finishes like Michael Mayer. I'm prepared to hear 0:11:29.270 --> 0:11:33.610 that name another hundred times today. I'm not sure what 0:11:33.630 --> 0:11:36.410 I think about the Pittsburgh defense, but now all of 0:11:36.450 --> 0:11:39.349 a sudden I'm thinking about streaming them this weekend if 0:11:39.390 --> 0:11:43.750 you need to. Falcons, until Michael Penix gets back, are 0:11:43.770 --> 0:11:47.150 going to be a target all year. This spread and 0:11:47.170 --> 0:11:50.010 team total feel a little bit off to me. On 0:11:50.030 --> 0:11:54.010 the Pittsburgh side, I was never that bullish on Pittsburgh 0:11:54.050 --> 0:11:56.700 to begin with, and I know we've had some changes 0:11:57.260 --> 0:12:00.400 as far as the people kind of pulling the switches. However, 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:05.880 whenever your quarterback's age starts with a four, and I 0:12:05.940 --> 0:12:08.880 have an outside chance of beating in a foot race, 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:12.930 which is not great, There's going to be question marks 0:12:12.990 --> 0:12:17.650 of fantasy, especially because they're actually talented. I think we 0:12:17.670 --> 0:12:22.660 might like Pittsburgh better if they weren't. Everywhere you look 0:12:23.300 --> 0:12:26.900 are viable fantasy pieces. I just don't know if we 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.940 get a repeat of 58 plays a game for 305 0:12:30.940 --> 0:12:34.870 yards a game at one of the NFL's slowest paces 0:12:36.210 --> 0:12:40.110 that we're going to have a pie big enough to 0:12:40.190 --> 0:12:45.189 feed all the mouths. especially in a spot where we're 0:12:45.250 --> 0:12:49.570 expecting Pittsburgh, at least on offense, to not really be pushed. 0:12:50.570 --> 0:12:53.699 Let's say you're not buying the Pittsburgh defense. You think 0:12:53.780 --> 0:12:57.240 Atlanta is at least representative, which, again, I have my doubts. 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.040 I don't think we're talking about a shootout here. I'm 0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:04.870 benching pretty much all of my Steelers, maybe outside of 0:13:04.929 --> 0:13:11.770 Jalen Warren, who I think can eat. just based off 0:13:11.790 --> 0:13:17.559 Aaron Rodgers totally refusing to take a hit and throwing 0:13:17.620 --> 0:13:21.360 incessantly to the running back position. We saw Kenny Gainwell 0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:24.380 get something like 85 targets or whatever. I think Warren 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:27.750 steps into that role. I'm worried about Dowdle. Now, he's 0:13:27.830 --> 0:13:29.870 always going to be a pop for an RB2 or 0:13:29.929 --> 0:13:33.010 flex finish because he could fall into the end zone. 0:13:36.570 --> 0:13:38.510 But again, I think the ceiling case is very much 0:13:38.630 --> 0:13:41.559 limited for a guy like Dowdle We're going to want 0:13:42.179 --> 0:13:46.500 play volume. And we're not even sure that Dowden was 0:13:46.540 --> 0:13:49.179 the better runner over Warren, who's been explosive and good 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.060 between the tackles with success rate, EPA, all the stuff 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.569 that we're looking for. So I'm really worried. I would 0:13:56.410 --> 0:13:59.330 copy and paste the same argument for the wide receivers. Yeah, 0:13:59.350 --> 0:14:01.510 of course I like Michael Pittman. And of course we 0:14:01.530 --> 0:14:06.130 like DK Metcalf. They're both good receivers. I just don't 0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:09.860 know what we're going to get in this one. It's 0:14:10.929 --> 0:14:13.980 It's worrisome from a pace thing. You know, please really 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:18.400 do dictate fantasy output. Now Atlanta's been pretty bad at 0:14:18.900 --> 0:14:21.960 defending the run in recent years. So if Pittsburgh is 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:24.460 able to move it, what are we going to get? 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:29.340 The tick tock of the clock. So maybe call me crazy, 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:33.640 but I'm benching all my Steelers outside of Warren. Rolling 0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:35.830 with just my Falcons that I had to draft in 0:14:35.850 --> 0:14:38.830 the first round. You can't sit a first rounder in 0:14:38.890 --> 0:14:42.890 week one. But, man, I am really kind of disinterested 0:14:42.910 --> 0:14:47.420 in this one. Let's try and get through the next 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:49.780 one before our first break. I'm kind of hitting that 0:14:49.940 --> 0:14:53.960 flow state right now. Not sure how much there is 0:14:53.980 --> 0:14:58.060 here anyway. Cleveland Browns on the road down in sunny 0:14:58.140 --> 0:15:04.380 Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Another low total here at 40.5, 0:15:04.380 --> 0:15:08.460 though it's more based on expectations for the Browns and Jags, 0:15:08.500 --> 0:15:11.400 I guess, depending which way you're looking at it. Jacksonville 0:15:11.450 --> 0:15:15.470 carrying 24 of those 40 points, Browns down at 16 0:15:15.470 --> 0:15:19.690 and a half. I believe that's the lowest individual team 0:15:19.730 --> 0:15:26.000 total on the sleeve. With good reason. For years, we've 0:15:26.100 --> 0:15:30.620 all heard, if you have two quarterbacks, you have none. Well, 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:32.920 what happens if you have five quarterbacks? I don't know 0:15:32.940 --> 0:15:37.630 what the answer is. Cleveland's struggling to find an answer. 0:15:37.650 --> 0:15:41.790 They keep trying to make Deshaun Watson a thing. I 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.220 think they were hoping he would just walk away. He 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.660 wanted to get paid. He's going to force the cut. 0:15:47.300 --> 0:15:52.240 They're going to make us watch Cleveland easily, if not 0:15:52.300 --> 0:15:54.830 the worst offense right next to it. I mean, this 0:15:54.890 --> 0:15:59.090 was awful. Just 262 yards a game at 4.3 yards 0:15:59.130 --> 0:16:02.990 per play, 36% success rate. These are all, again, bottom two, 0:16:03.090 --> 0:16:06.740 dead last, or bottom three metrics. Can't get the rush 0:16:06.770 --> 0:16:09.060 game going. Not that you're going to get any volume 0:16:09.100 --> 0:16:13.380 there anyway. So really quick, let's address that. I've been 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:17.720 higher in a vacuum on Dylan Sampson than Quinshawn Junkins 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:22.460 from the jump. Junkins, to me, comes across as more 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.480 of a two-down player. Sampson had some of the best 0:16:25.540 --> 0:16:29.000 advanced receiving metrics in the league as far as yards 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.660 per out, target per out run. I think Cleveland is 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:36.800 going to be behind perpetually all season, without Myles Garrett 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.640 and throw it. So Samson, I think, is a sneaky 0:16:40.660 --> 0:16:43.600 start as a flex. I wouldn't be like forcing him 0:16:43.660 --> 0:16:46.450 into a lineup, but I do think he's viable in 0:16:46.490 --> 0:16:50.490 a deeper league or if you have question marks. Other 0:16:50.510 --> 0:16:54.550 than that, maybe regardless of the quarterback, you could start 0:16:54.590 --> 0:16:59.770 Casey Concepcion as a back-end wide out because I think 0:16:59.820 --> 0:17:02.420 a lot of the layup targets that went to Harold Fannin, 0:17:02.460 --> 0:17:06.010 who I am also benching, I think those targets go 0:17:06.050 --> 0:17:09.310 to Concepcion. If you're not picking up what I'm putting down, 0:17:09.790 --> 0:17:11.730 I think those would be the only two Browns could 0:17:11.750 --> 0:17:15.090 start outside of Sampson, but actually start in a standard league. 0:17:15.810 --> 0:17:19.990 Fannin showed us real ability as a rookie breakout, but 0:17:20.430 --> 0:17:24.879 there was very little target competition at the time. Bringing 0:17:24.990 --> 0:17:28.600 in Concepcion, as well as Denzel Boston, might put a 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:32.660 little bit of a chokehold, especially Concepcion, his style of play, 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:36.280 the camp buzz. his ability to win right around the 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:40.240 line of scrimmage might make things kind of tough for 0:17:40.660 --> 0:17:43.859 all the surrounding pieces because, again, how big is the 0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:47.459 pie going to be? Browns were essentially dead last as 0:17:47.500 --> 0:17:51.420 a team in completion rate, EPA per dropback, pass yards 0:17:51.460 --> 0:17:55.699 per game, yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, deep completions. 0:17:55.740 --> 0:17:57.930 I mean, it's as bad as it gets, plus all 0:17:57.950 --> 0:18:02.710 the pressure allowed, a 48% pressure rate allowed last year, 0:18:02.790 --> 0:18:08.609 just horrendous stuff. Jacksonville, if Cleveland was easy in one 0:18:08.650 --> 0:18:11.280 way to do, Jacksonville is just as easy in the 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:14.940 other direction. You're starting all of your Jaguars, right? This 0:18:14.980 --> 0:18:17.899 goes without saying, I think you're starting Brian Thomas and 0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:20.179 still you know what you got. If it turns out 0:18:20.619 --> 0:18:23.770 they're just empty calorie go routes, then maybe we rethink it. 0:18:24.030 --> 0:18:25.800 But for right now, you want to go after it. 0:18:26.130 --> 0:18:29.350 I'm not viewing Cleveland as the same kind of defense 0:18:29.690 --> 0:18:32.889 that we saw last year. Without Garrett and all the 0:18:32.970 --> 0:18:36.390 pressure stuff, which was really the foundational piece of that unit, 0:18:37.010 --> 0:18:39.429 I want to see what we got. We spent the 0:18:39.450 --> 0:18:42.709 draft capital on Thomas. I think you roll him out. Washington, 0:18:42.810 --> 0:18:46.209 of course, Parker Washington, I mean. Salutes, Lee, you're starting. 0:18:46.810 --> 0:18:50.970 Same for Trevor Lawrence. Same for Bashell Tootin. Maybe Chris 0:18:51.020 --> 0:18:54.560 Rodriguez because of the team total and our expectations that 0:18:54.580 --> 0:18:57.879 this could kind of run away. He also, to me, 0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:02.290 projects to be the goal linebacker. and getting a lot 0:19:02.310 --> 0:19:06.869 of the high-value stuff. So give me Chris Rodriguez as 0:19:06.890 --> 0:19:12.610 a deeper flex play. I'd rank him above Samson for 0:19:12.630 --> 0:19:15.470 the Browns, but also kind of in that same elk 0:19:16.410 --> 0:19:19.600 of players maybe that you're only starting, you know, if 0:19:19.619 --> 0:19:23.220 you're in a pitch. If Rodriguez is out there on 0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:27.820 your waiver wire, you should absolutely go roster him, not 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.080 just to say he's a contingency ad in case Tootin 0:19:30.100 --> 0:19:37.370 gets hurt, but because the pie for the Jaguars could 0:19:37.410 --> 0:19:42.260 be big enough to feed families. I would sit Jacoby Myers, 0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:47.270 Bretton Strange, just as the ancillary tertiary pieces. I think 0:19:47.310 --> 0:19:49.270 we want to see how the route rates shake out. 0:19:50.180 --> 0:19:52.540 including kind of Travis Hunter into this. I definitely wouldn't 0:19:52.580 --> 0:19:54.700 start him, but meaning we want to see how he's 0:19:54.740 --> 0:19:57.359 worked into the play. Sorry, that's our first three games. 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:01.520 Feeling pretty good, everybody, right? Get some ice cubes. We're 0:20:01.540 --> 0:20:03.960 going to be back in a moment with the Bears 0:20:04.550 --> 0:20:36.320 and my J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. All right, everybody. Thank 0:20:36.460 --> 0:20:39.220 you for listening, and we are back, Fantasy Football Weekly. 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:42.260 Let's get into the next set of games here. One 0:20:42.300 --> 0:20:47.560 of the most anticipated teams of the offseason, Chicago Bears, 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:53.080 travel to Carolina, and far be it for me to IKB, 0:20:53.280 --> 0:20:57.580 or I Know Better, a very sharp betting market. But 0:20:57.619 --> 0:20:59.990 I have to admit, I was a little surprised. Bears 0:21:00.050 --> 0:21:04.170 are just a two-and-a-half-point favorite on the road in Carolina, 0:21:05.050 --> 0:21:09.670 bringing along with them a 25-point team total to Carolina's 22-and-a-half. 0:21:09.710 --> 0:21:14.820 And everything feels a little bit off to me, right? 0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:19.090 Just from a kind of gut reaction for Chicago might 0:21:19.150 --> 0:21:23.010 come in a little bit higher. I thought Carolina might 0:21:23.070 --> 0:21:25.909 come in a little bit lower and I guess it 0:21:26.010 --> 0:21:31.250 shows what I know. Big question to be answered really 0:21:31.270 --> 0:21:33.879 has got to be the bears defense and will the 0:21:33.940 --> 0:21:37.060 real bears defense please stand off. I thought they played 0:21:37.080 --> 0:21:40.280 a little bit better towards the close of the season 0:21:40.300 --> 0:21:43.400 last year. But, man, there's a lot of ugly stuff 0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:45.480 here on the spreadsheet. Bears, one of the few teams 0:21:45.520 --> 0:21:49.220 to allow six yards of play or more. One of 0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:52.919 the few teams to allow more than 360 yards a game. 0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:57.379 Few teams to allow more than 35 yards on average 0:21:57.420 --> 0:22:00.740 per drive. Those are all pretty bad. They struggled against 0:22:00.780 --> 0:22:04.060 the run. They struggled against the pass. They struggled to 0:22:04.140 --> 0:22:08.910 create pressure. But I still find myself asking, does Carolina 0:22:08.950 --> 0:22:12.560 have what it takes to push around anybody? And that's 0:22:12.580 --> 0:22:15.040 where I'm really not so sure. So I guess we 0:22:15.060 --> 0:22:16.880 could start in the Carolina side. And you can tell 0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:19.900 from all the weird inflection in my voice that I'm 0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:24.240 not really buying any of this Carolina stuff offensively. I've 0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:27.480 never been a big Bryce Young guy. We've seen him 0:22:27.520 --> 0:22:31.580 get benched. I don't even think he really played well. 0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:33.480 And now all of a sudden we're expecting him to 0:22:34.080 --> 0:22:37.060 kind of hold serve with Ben Johnson and the Bears. 0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:39.700 I'm not really seeing it. I mean, again, Young at 0:22:39.960 --> 0:22:43.590 just six and a half air yards per attempt. 6.3 YPA, 0:22:44.369 --> 0:22:49.690 it's all pretty gross. Plus, he doesn't run. And I 0:22:49.770 --> 0:22:52.689 think for undersized quarterbacks, I think that's a killer. That 0:22:52.710 --> 0:22:54.990 if you can't stand up in the pocket and attack 0:22:55.010 --> 0:22:57.290 the middle of the field, and you're not really a 0:22:57.350 --> 0:23:00.189 threat to take off, and I don't just mean to 0:23:00.270 --> 0:23:06.189 rack up these long runs or long touchdown runs. Patrick Mahomes, 0:23:06.750 --> 0:23:09.909 of course, the GOAT, kind of set the standard in 0:23:09.930 --> 0:23:14.149 the template for how to succeed with this. And it's 0:23:14.270 --> 0:23:17.810 running for first downs. Remember, runs are part of EPA 0:23:17.850 --> 0:23:21.170 per dropout. So if you scramble for a first down, 0:23:21.190 --> 0:23:23.290 you're going to boost it. And that's been part of it. 0:23:24.590 --> 0:23:27.190 Quick little factoid for people, right? That's how you split 0:23:27.210 --> 0:23:30.910 the difference between EPA per dropout and EPA per attempt 0:23:31.250 --> 0:23:35.840 when a pass attempt was actually made. Either way, Bryce Young, 0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:38.840 pretty weak in that department, below average. He's always been 0:23:38.859 --> 0:23:42.560 that way. He turns the ball over. too much and 0:23:42.600 --> 0:23:46.020 man i'm not buying any of this so i'm out 0:23:46.300 --> 0:23:49.460 on young as far as the pass catchers go i 0:23:49.480 --> 0:23:52.680 think you have to start teteroa though i had him 0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:56.440 on my zero share list basically throughout the entire summer 0:23:56.840 --> 0:23:59.060 he might have found his way onto a squad or 0:23:59.100 --> 0:24:02.540 two in best ball because sometimes right this is a 0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:07.950 price game that we're playing right it's price driven i 0:24:07.970 --> 0:24:09.919 mean to say And when Tet would make it to 0:24:09.940 --> 0:24:12.180 the back of the fourth at times, I think if 0:24:12.220 --> 0:24:15.020 he's the best option, then you go to it. I 0:24:15.060 --> 0:24:19.290 do have one of my thick eyebrows raised just based 0:24:19.400 --> 0:24:21.410 on a little bit of what we saw in the preseason. 0:24:21.990 --> 0:24:28.270 Not that I think it's all necessarily sticky or worth 0:24:28.310 --> 0:24:31.350 kind of jumping on. But when you have a player 0:24:31.430 --> 0:24:35.510 that talented and he's clearly the top option on a team, 0:24:36.130 --> 0:24:40.190 and then you see that said team deploy that player 0:24:40.580 --> 0:24:42.580 from the slot, very similar to what I was mentioning 0:24:42.619 --> 0:24:47.220 with London at the outset. If we're going to get 0:24:47.340 --> 0:24:51.160 Ted Arroa-McMillan moving in and out of the slot where 0:24:51.220 --> 0:24:54.440 he's going to get a boost to that inherent floor 0:24:54.460 --> 0:24:57.560 that you get from a slot guy, that could be really, 0:24:57.600 --> 0:25:01.500 really great. However, until we see it, I'm not really 0:25:01.560 --> 0:25:03.800 buying it, which is why I wasn't drafting him at cost, 0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:06.179 but it's also why he's worth kind of rolling out 0:25:06.240 --> 0:25:08.629 there just in case the Bears' defense is still terrible. 0:25:09.250 --> 0:25:12.050 Maybe Ted Aroa is good. My worry, of course, with 0:25:12.109 --> 0:25:16.570 Ted in the slot is Jalen Coker kind of eating 0:25:16.609 --> 0:25:18.910