WEBVTT - 2010 Predictions Follow-Up 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:02.840 Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. 0:00:03.160 --> 0:00:08.880 It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:17.960 text stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello again, everyone, 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:21.360 Welcome to tex stuff. My name is Chris Poulette, and 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:23.439 I am an editor at how stuff works dot Com. 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.279 Sitting across from me as always, just as he was 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:30.240 a year ago, his senior writer, Jonathan Strickland. You all 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:33.680 know me, know how I earn a living. I'll catch 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:35.720 this bird for you, but it ain't gonna be easy. 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.760 Bad fish now like going down the pond chasing bluegills 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:44.680 and Tommy CODs. This shark swally a hole, little shaken, 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:51.760 little tenderizing and down you go. Okay, so wow, I 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:54.600 I yeah, I think we'll figure that out in a minute. 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:56.640 Of course. You know, if you know the source of 0:00:56.720 --> 0:01:02.640 Jonathan's quotes, please let us know some of you of them. Yeah, 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:04.280 some of you have been very good about that. We 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:08.039 got one email that that listed I think thirty nine 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:13.560 of the quotes. How much Jonathan loves Tron. Yes, but 0:01:13.640 --> 0:01:19.720 by the way, that movie I just quoted from not Tron. Alright, Uh, 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:23.400 this is our this is our annual. Hey, let's see 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:26.600 how well we did last year podcast where we we 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:30.520 talked about the predictions we made the year before and uh. 0:01:30.640 --> 0:01:33.759 And first of all, we should mention that we're recording 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:39.360 this podcast at the very beginning of December of two 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:41.880 thousand ten, and this is about the predictions we made 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:44.080 for two thousand ten. Now, the reason why I say 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:47.039 that is because some of these wrong answers may still 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:51.080 turn right before January, so don't write us in if 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.880 something happened on December thirty one. Some of them were 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:59.680 very clearly wrong, and mine is the most embarrassing. Now 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:03.440 I'm looking at the list here, Polette, the list oh 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:06.480 predictions that the two of us made together. Yeah, this 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:08.440 was the second time we tried this. We tried this 0:02:08.560 --> 0:02:11.080 at the the end of two thousand eight for two 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:14.160 thousand nine. Yeah, and uh, I remember being much more 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:16.920 into it and excited about making predictions because I didn't 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:19.160 realize how wrong I was going to be. And so 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:22.200 Jonathan made a ton more predictions for two thousand ten 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:24.079 than I did because I didn't want to go out 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:26.520 on the limb, so I was really conservative. Yeah. Also, 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:30.000 if you remember how I graded them last year, yeah, yeah, 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:31.919 that's the last time I'm giving you the marker. I 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:33.799 guess I won't be doing that this year, all right, 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:36.200 So we're gonna start this up. Because I made a 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:39.560 few more predictions than Mr Pillette, We've decided that Mr 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:42.079 Pellette will read out some of mine and then we 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:44.840 will comment upon them, and then occasionally I will read 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:47.280 out some of his, and then we'll make our way 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:49.400 through there, and then we're gonna wrap up by talking 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:53.239 about some of the big stories that neither of us predicted. Yes, 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:56.000 because we thought that would be fun. Okay, cool, all right, 0:02:56.080 --> 0:03:00.000 let's get started. So you said, yes, that would be 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.760 the year of the e reader, you know, the devices 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:07.880 dedicated to books, like the Nook or the Kindle. Uh 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.000 saying that you know, well, you were about to head 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:15.440 out to see SUH the the show formerly known specifically 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:18.720 as the Consumer Electronic Show. Every everyone assumes now that 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:21.720 it's just ce S. I guess. But you said you'd 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:22.959 see a lot of those when you went out in 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:27.400 January to Las Vegas, and you did. Some of them 0:03:27.400 --> 0:03:30.320 have disappeared since then, never actually hit the marketing, some 0:03:30.360 --> 0:03:33.520 of them never really got a good chance. Yeah, I 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:35.320 said that that Twain ten would be the year the 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:37.600 e reader, and you disagreed. You said that it would 0:03:37.600 --> 0:03:39.920 take another year. Well, I was going by you know, 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:44.080 the analyst Gartner said that the e reader wasn't yet 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:48.960 ready for the masses. I think the Kindle sales prove 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:51.760 that wrong. However, I'm gonna I'm gonna call this one 0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:56.880 a tie for us because one, it really is not 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.600 in the United States at any rate. It's still pretty 0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:02.760 much a two horse race, right, And and the first 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.840 horse is the Kindle, and it's way the heck ahead 0:04:05.920 --> 0:04:08.600 of the second horse, which is the Nook. And still 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:10.920 have other readers, but those are the two main ones. 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:15.800 And that's if you're going strictly by devices dedicated to readers, right, 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:20.240 because the iPad has become a real contender in the 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:22.680 e reader space. But the iPad, of course is not 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:27.080 just an e reader, so that you know. But I 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:32.160 would say that the iPad still has not um It 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:35.919 hasn't made e readers obsolete. No, some people said that 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:38.720 it would because it can do so much more. But 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:40.640 it turns out that some people just like the e 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:44.719 reader form factor specifically for reading books. Plus the prices 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:48.160 come down, and there was another factor by a very 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:51.600 famous woman who came out in favor of e readers, 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:54.880 who probably tilted the market a little bit more than 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.800 it might not have benefit had been allowed to sit 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:02.800 with a lot of anonymous people reading books. Are you 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:04.799 talking about Wait wait wait wait, are you talking about 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:08.440 Nicole Kimman? Wait wait wait wait? Are you talking about 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:14.880 um Red Fraggle? Yes? Not Oprah. As a matter of fact, 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:18.680 I was talking about the lady who has the network 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:24.040 starting January one. In January, Sorry, I can remember. I 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:26.200 think eleven, isn't it? I don't know. You want to 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:30.520 go back on that. Yes, it was indeed Oprah I 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:35.600 was speaking of with the the new network on Discovery. Yeah, 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:39.240 and uh yeah, Oprah. Really the kindle became one of 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:41.960 her favorite things, right, Yeah, and of course she she 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:45.360 has a bully pulpit in her show, so we're so. 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:47.280 You know, as soon as she mentioned that, a lot 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:49.960 of people who may not necessarily have been interested, you know, 0:05:50.040 --> 0:05:52.000 checked it out and discovered they liked it. Yeah. Actually, 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:54.680 that was one of those devices that that quickly got 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.839 outside that niche market of the you know, the the 0:05:57.880 --> 0:06:03.080 early adopter tech guys gals, and hit a broader audience 0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:06.200 pretty quickly and and they still have been doing pretty well. 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:08.840 I'm still calling it a tie. I still don't think 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:12.000 was really technically the year of the e reader. I 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:16.200 think the iPad managed to two deflect that quite a bit. 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:20.840 So um, but it certainly did hit public mass consciousness. Yes, 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.400 readers did really well, and they continued to do well 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:28.920 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales as well. Okay, 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.240 so let's go. I guess to another one of mine. 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.000 Oh yeah, and one of your on the iPad, the 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:38.960 iPod Touch camera. Hey look at that ding? Yeah, I 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:42.120 got one right? Um, that was it was almost I 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.280 think I said last year that that one was pretty 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.239 much gimme. Uh. And even though Apple had not said 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:51.240 anything to that effect, I could not imagine another year 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:55.120 going by of iPod updates and not seeing a camera 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:58.360 in the new iPod Touch and uh. And of course 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:02.080 they've They've added the capability of being able to join 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:06.960 face time using iPod Touch over WiFi, just like if 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:10.720 people who use the iPhone. So I got one, right, 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.920 you got one right? More. I think this would be 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:16.080 a good time for my first one. All right, So 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:21.320 Apple release something likely. I love that you said something 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:23.920 talk about hedging your bets. I told you I was 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:30.360 being really conservative because it could have released like doves 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:34.000 and it would have been right. They released a plague 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:36.760 of locusts in the in the Google headquarters and it 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:41.120 would have okay. Anyway, so Pletts says Apple will release something, 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:45.000 you know, the master prognosticator here. But then he went 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.080 on to say it would likely be a tablet and 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:50.280 it would sell well, but not as well as all 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.160 the hype leading up to the tablet would have indicated. 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:56.800 In other words, if you remember lots of hype, right, well, yeah, 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.280 if you remember this time, well, this time, I don't 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:01.160 know when you're listening to this, If you remember the 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:05.240 winter of two thousand and nine, that was really when 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:10.840 people were speculating about this tablet device more than ever before, 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:14.760 and that that speculation had started years earlier. I mean 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:16.440 we're talking like, I think it had been like two 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:19.000 years since people had started talking about an Apple tablet 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:22.520 and uh and so yeah, everyone was was really convinced 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:24.320 that Apple is going to come out with this. Um. 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:27.040 I should also say that I made a similar prediction, 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.240 except I said that Apple would come out with a 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:33.240 tablet and that it would tank. I think we both 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:35.880 technically got this a little wrong. I got it. I 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:38.559 got it way wrong. I was completely wrong. I mean, 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:40.400 apart from the fact that they came out with a tablet, 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:44.040 that part was right. Did you all hear that it 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:46.960 wasn't just me? I know, yes, Okay, Once in a 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:49.440 while I say things that don't turn out to be 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:53.320 true because, like John teethor I traveled back from an 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:58.679 alternate future where the iPad flocked. That's my defense. I 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.640 clearly it's three degrees of difference from my reality. I 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:05.600 hope you I hope you guys listened to the j 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:09.280 T podcast anyway. So, yeah, I said it was gonna flop. 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.600 I was totally wrong. Chris said it was gonna sell well, 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:14.560 but not as well as people thought. Actually ended up selling. 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:17.520 I think it's sell better hot cakes. Yeah it was. 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:20.080 It flew off store shelves well. Keeping in mind that 0:09:20.280 --> 0:09:25.040 the previous tablets, the Windows based tablets, which were essentially 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:28.800 laptop computers that the screen flipped around. Yeah, uh, they 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:30.800 didn't really do so well. So I kind of figured, 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:33.520 you know, well, they they'll probably do well, but nobody 0:09:33.520 --> 0:09:36.760 really wants to tablet as much as they say we do. 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.800 Once it turns out Chris and I totally underestimated how 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:43.600 Apple can convince us to buy stuff. In fact, I 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:45.360 will go so far as to say fifty of the 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:48.280 people in this room have an iPad right now. Of 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.800 the people in this room at the moment caved within 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:53.200 a week of the release, and it's still upset. Actually, 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:56.199 I should I should amend that people in this recording 0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:59.120 area of this room, because we have our producer out 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.480 there and I don't. Hey, Matt, do you have an iPad? 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:05.600 Matt does not. So the people in this room own 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:09.440 an iPad? How do you like them? Odds? So, yeah, 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:12.720 Anyway did really, really well. So we both got that 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:15.160 kriska just a little wrong. But I'm going to give 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:18.560 him a checkmark on this because he was more more 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:23.720 right than not right. I was totally wrong. Alright, So 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:25.920 it's your turn to read another one of my predictions. Yes, 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.360 here's another one we got that you got mostly right, 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:34.240 and uh yeah, Anyway will come and go without an 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:37.200 announcement of a new console from Sony or Microsoft. But 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:41.360 Nintendo might come out with something, and I agreed with you. 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:44.680 I thought that would be likely. Yeah, I thought at 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:48.400 the time that Nintendo might announce a successor possibly to 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:51.240 the Wei. As it turns out, Nintendo did not do that. 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:55.040 Nintendo or hasn't so far. December. We still have December 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:57.600 to go. Yeah, this isn't the time for announcements like 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.520 that because people don't want to cannibalize the today sales. 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:02.800 They're gonna keep mom on it even I'm sure they're all. 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:06.760 I agree with my earlier self when I said that 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:09.080 I think they're working on the next All of them 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:11.000 are working on the next generation. They're just ready to 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:12.839 share with us what they're doing. Yeah, and and and 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:16.360 my reasoning behind that was that both Sony and Microsoft 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:18.839 were coming out with new peripherals and that would be 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:22.679 the move and the connect um and uh and I thought, well, 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:25.440 if you're doing that, you wouldn't want to cannibalize those 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:27.760 sales by suggesting that you were going to come out 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.400 with a new console the following year, because people might say, well, 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:33.240 what if the peripherals aren't compatible with the new console. 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:36.439 So um, yeah, I was I was right. Sony and 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:40.640 Microsoft did not announce anything. Nintendo did announce the three DS, 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:44.400 which is a new gaming device, but it's not a console. 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:47.839 It's a handheld. It is an interesting handheld device, and 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:50.560 it is a variation on an original on their Earth. 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:53.720 So you know, I'm more right than not with this one, 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.199 but I think, uh, yeah, it's not a it's not 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.280 a total win on this one either. Yeah, the tech 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.760 industry is kind of aren't to pin down on. Yeah, alright, 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.000 hit me with another one. We have one of these 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:05.280 science more science e This is before we had a 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:08.640 science oriented podcast. So we actually talked about the Large 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.880 Hadron Collider, which is the if you'll remember, the Large 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:16.360 Particle Accelerator in Europe, Europe, Europe. There we go. Uh, 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:18.719 and you said it would either uncover evidence of the 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:23.360 Higgs boson particle or something even weirder. Yeah, that has 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:27.800 not really come to pass. Although recently the LHC has 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:33.280 managed to recreate on a miniscule scale conditions similar to 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:36.240 that that we believe existed right after the Big Bang. 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:41.560 So that's pretty cool, but nothing to the point where 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.000 at least none of the information has trickled out where 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:46.880 it's something brand new that we didn't know, it's something 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:49.319 that we haven't achieved before. But it's not like we 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:54.520 have new information that either confirms our hypotheses or uh 0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:56.400 disproves them, and now we have to come up with 0:12:56.440 --> 0:13:00.520 a new model. So right, so nothing as drumatic as that, 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.520 all right, can I read another one of yours? Now? Okay, 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:06.559 so Chris, here's another one of yours. The Nexus one 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:09.520 will come out and be a consumer device and will 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.240 be exclusive to T Mobile. And I agreed with that. 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:16.200 The Nexus one phone, uh, Android phone did come out 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.760 through both Google and through T Mobile. Uh, it was 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:24.319 a consumer device. Um, it wasn't technically exclusive to T Mobile, 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.360 but there was no real easy way to use it 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.080 on other networks if you were just purchasing for yourself. 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:33.120 They did sell that well, the Google the phone you 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:37.679 could get from Google was unlocked GSM phone, so you could, 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:40.400 you know, use it with a T and T here 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.480 in the United States. That would mean you'd have to 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.640 shave down the simcard though, right or no? The SIM 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:48.920 cards on a T and T are different, our size, 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:50.880 differently from the ones on T Mobile. So that was 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:54.079 the that was the plan. I'm sorry I misspoke then, No, no, no, no, 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:57.080 I think but they were unlocked. Yeah, they were unlocked 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.280 and so um, but you didn't have to buy a 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:02.240 contract with mobile to exactly. Yeah, you could use this 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:04.400 on an existing contract if you already had one with 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.200 T Mobile, you didn't have to sign a new contract. Um, 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:09.959 I will. I'm gonna say that this is a win 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.599 for you. Um. Now. Granted, the next one did not 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:17.200 remain a consumer device for all of two thousand and ten, 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.240 it did go off the market eventually. Yeah, it actually, 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:23.440 it actually left the market pretty quickly all things considered. Yeah, 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:25.840 it was one of those things where I think Google 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:30.040 discovered that trying to sell a device through their own 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.000 system just didn't work as well. For one thing, it 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:36.920 didn't allow consumers the chance to get a device in 0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:40.920 their hands and play with it before committing to purchasing 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:45.600 the device. And uh, and smartphones aren't cheap, so it's 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:47.840 hard to say, you know what, I'm just gonna take 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:50.240 it on faith that this is a good hand set 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:52.280 and a good operating system, and I'm just gonna buy 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:55.440 it without getting my hands on it. So um, Yeah, 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:57.640 it didn't stay out for the consumer market for all 0:14:57.680 --> 0:14:59.720 of two thousand and ten, but I think it's still 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:04.200 count and uh, although I have fewer predictions, I think 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.440 it might be a good point time to point out 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:08.520 that My next one was sort of related, which was 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:12.480 T Mobile's merger with another company, which, man, it's been 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.520 rumored like every three months, and it was I think 0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:17.640 it was big around this time last year, around the 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:20.720 end of the year two thousand nine. But it's just 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.040 as as many times as people have predicted its death. 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.360 T Mobile is still hanging in there as a separate company. Independent. 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:29.640 I think we called out survey says you would get 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:32.320 an on this one. Yeah, I think you're right, all right, 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:37.600 so why don't you do it? Um? Okay, uh, here's 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.440 here's a ding on the game show buzzer for you. 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:43.200 We'll start to see the pay version of Hulu appear 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.280 in hooray it. As a matter of fact, we both 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:50.720 had predicted that one. Hooray for both of us. Um, well, 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:52.640 I mean this was this was one of our more 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:56.880 uh easy targets. I would say, well, the low hanging fruit. 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.680 It was. It was one of those things where it 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:03.080 was being talked about at in in two thousand nine, 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:07.440 but the question was whether or not Hulu would actually 0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:09.960 go through with it, because you know, sometimes companies talk 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:13.440 about potential business models but nothing ever happens of it. 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:16.000 In this case, it did happen. Hulu does have a 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:21.120 paid version, Hulu Plus, which has some some benefits and 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:26.080 some limitations compared to the free Hulu service. So yeah, 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:28.800 that one was that one we both got right. Hooray, 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.560 let's do another one of mine. All right. You also 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.520 said that we would see wireless HD components. Okay, never, 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:39.280 that's just market Yeah, all right, Okay, so that didn't happen. 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:44.080 This was talking about things like devices like DVD players 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:47.400 and Blu ray players and cable boxes even that would 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.600 not require you to use a cable to hook up 0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:53.400 directly to your TV. They would have power cables, but 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:57.600 otherwise would transmit data wirelessly. We're still not there yet. 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.280 Despite the fact that I've seen such systems at the 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:06.600 CSU conference every year since we started going, they still 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:09.240 have not really hit the market. My guess is it 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:13.359 may partially be due to the economy, because people's stuff 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.679 already works and there I would imagine that the manufacturers 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:19.199 are probably thinking, yeah, I'm not sure that people are 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.120 ready to upgrade. I think it might also be due 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:24.119 to those guys in the parking lot all holding bats 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:27.000 and wearing jackets that say Monster Cable on the back. 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:33.360 You're anyway, that was not me. Um, I predict next 0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:37.720 year my legs will be broken. Um. You also said 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:40.040 we'd see the war of the four G technologies take off. 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:43.880 That's wy max and LTE. We're just starting to see 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:47.960 that come to a head right now. So I I 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:51.160 say that's a partial win. I would, but Verizon will 0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:54.080 be At the time we're recording this, Verizon has announced 0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:56.680 that it's going to be launching its LTE network and 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.200 I think thirty eight cities in just a few days. 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:01.439 So by the time this this publishes, it will already 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:04.280 have happened. The launch will have happened. Yeah. I have 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:08.080 a similar related prediction. Yeah, oh you said, um, on's 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.320 where it's the next to last one on the next Yeah, 0:18:11.359 --> 0:18:14.080 the first LTE structure will get built out in the 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:17.080 United States because there were some in Europe already. And 0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:21.960 that's true. Although it's really funny because it wasn't Verizon 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:24.119 who did it first, nor was it a T n 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:28.000 T or sprint to our T mobile. It was metro 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:31.880 PCs who beat everyone to the punch. Where you at? Dog? 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:37.200 Where am I at? I'm sorry? Yeah, tro PCs is 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.680 actually I've got friends who use that that that that 0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:43.960 there's subscribers to metro PCs. Yeah. Now they are a 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:46.879 much smaller carrier, which probably helps them in building out 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:50.560 their LTE network. But uh yeah, one day tuned into 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:53.879 the Tech News Metro PCs builds out an LTE network 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:57.000 and I said, I'm sorry, what but they did it? 0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.800 So they I get a point. My next the next 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:05.800 for me is a another big win for me, for me, 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:09.639 not for them. Ah. Yes, that would be Palm, the 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:13.720 formerly independent company. Uh that came out with the Palm 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:16.359 Pre smartphone. Of course, the Palm pilots for years the 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:21.680 handheld digital assistance. You said that they would either go 0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:25.040 out of business or get acquired, and they got acquired, 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:28.359 So there you go. I actually now again this was 0:19:28.400 --> 0:19:31.480 one of those things that this was not a sure 0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:34.000 thing when I predicted it, but it was it was 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:36.880 something I felt fairly confident about because they were coming 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:39.560 out with a new phone. The Pre actually know at 0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:41.760 this point was the Pixie. The Pre had already come out. 0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:48.080 Um at the beginning of nine they showed it c 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.240 E S CS two thousand nine. It was yeah, everyone 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:54.640 went crazy for the Pre. When c S two thousand nine, 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:57.560 it didn't come out until the spring of two thousand nine, 0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:00.520 which was the problem, right, They couldn't capitalize on that buzz, 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:03.440 and then the Pre just did not sell very well. 0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:05.520 They came out with the Pixie towards the end of 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:07.520 two thousand nine, but I said that the Pixie was 0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:10.720 not priced at such a point that it would keep 0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:13.720 the company going. I had forgotten and uh, and sure 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:16.840 enough I was right. They started to really waiver and 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:20.399 then they got acquired. But they were acquired by Hewlett 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:23.920 Packard and p HP is talking about doing some things 0:20:24.000 --> 0:20:27.520 with the Palm, the new web OS, the operating system 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:29.480 for the Pre and Pixie, talking about using it for 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.520 tablets or possibly even phones, even though they said at 0:20:32.600 --> 0:20:35.440 one time they weren't interested in doing phones. Then that's 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:37.760 one of those things that kind of flip flops on. Well, 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:39.800 you know, when you got a good platform. And apparently, 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:42.000 from from what I've heard, the web os is a 0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:45.080 pretty decent operating system. So there, okay, so let me 0:20:45.119 --> 0:20:50.000 do one of yours. Apple will embrace music rental and 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:54.920 or streaming service on iTunes. We are still waiting for this, 0:20:55.720 --> 0:20:59.520 but it appears that something along those lines may be coming. 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:03.000 They the company purchased La La. Yeah, and La La 0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:06.840 was a streaming music service. Yep. And they're building in 0:21:06.920 --> 0:21:10.239 a huge data center in North Carolina. So it may 0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:12.280 be that this is still going to hit. It's just 0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:14.080 doesn't look like it's going to hit by the end 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:16.240 of Yeah, and there are there are a lot of 0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:18.240 licensing agreements that have to be in place for something 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:21.959 like this to happen, and it wouldn't. It's also prevented 0:21:21.960 --> 0:21:25.280 Spotify from launching in the United States. There's licensing agreements exactly. 0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.280 It wouldn't surprise me to see this if they do 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:33.119 get all their those those problems tucked away. It wouldn't 0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:36.200 surprise me to see this announced being announced in January, 0:21:36.280 --> 0:21:40.960 because there's usually an Apple announcement sometime in January. Of course, 0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:46.520 that might also be the next iPad that we hear about. Yep. 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:49.399 Do you want to do another oil skip skip the 0:21:49.560 --> 0:21:51.520 next one that's on my list, because that's the one 0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:52.960 that I want to save to the end. Okay, we 0:21:53.000 --> 0:21:57.000 can do that. You mentioned the rise in three D entertainment. 0:21:57.480 --> 0:21:59.800 That would be a great day old ding. Yeah, for 0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:02.920 at least for movies. For TV, it's still pretty slow 0:22:02.960 --> 0:22:05.040 to take off. Although three D televisions are on the 0:22:05.119 --> 0:22:08.720