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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: Here we go throwing in so sick. I'm sitting in

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Speaker 1: to cash.

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Speaker 2: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to wind. That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 3: You want to pack.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Brandon Anderson, joined

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Speaker 3: as always by Raheem Palmer. Here to wrap up a

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Speaker 3: crazy week four. Tom Brady drove for the late win

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Speaker 3: in New England, just as the prophecy foretold. The Cardinals

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Speaker 3: took the Rams behind the woodshed and a matchup of unbeatens.

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Speaker 3: We got wild finishes all day. We haven't got wins

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Speaker 3: for the Jets and the Giants to start the season. Raheem,

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Speaker 3: it looks like you racked up a ton of wins

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Speaker 3: on the Action app today.

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Speaker 2: How'd you do?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? So we turned up today. We went twelve and

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Speaker 1: two straight up on Spreads totals A's teasers. We knocked

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Speaker 1: them out the part. The only disappointment for me is

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Speaker 1: that I continue to struggle when it comes to these

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Speaker 1: football contests. I'm three and two once again. I've gone

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Speaker 1: three and two just by every single week of this year,

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Speaker 1: and going three and two is great when you're trying

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Speaker 1: to overcome the big minus one ten fifty two point

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Speaker 1: three eight percent. Hitting sixty percent is great, But when

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Speaker 1: you're trying to win these contests, you got to hit

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Speaker 1: upwards of sixty percent seventy percent. So I gotta I

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Speaker 1: gotta get the ball roll and haven't played myself out

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Speaker 1: of it yet, but we're gonna hopefully turn this thing around.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, at least at three and two, you're

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Speaker 3: keeping yourself in the game. You know, two and three

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Speaker 3: a struggle, one and four, zero and five you might

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Speaker 3: be out of it already, so you're hanging in there.

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Speaker 3: You just need to get hanging one to five and

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Speaker 3: no week and you'll pull it right back out to

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Speaker 3: the front of that. But we're gonna run through the

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Speaker 3: entire Sunday slate with betting takeaways for every game. We

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Speaker 3: will hit money and at football the pre and picks,

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Speaker 3: and finished with our Week five hot read get some

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Speaker 3: early winners.

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Speaker 2: We continue to be hot in that section as always.

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Speaker 3: Odds today are for BETDOMGM, the official odds provider of

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Speaker 3: the Action Network. Podcast, And let's start out with where

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Speaker 3: we ended Tom Brady the triumphant return to New England.

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Speaker 2: Where we start with this one. I kind of lived

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Speaker 2: up to everything we expected.

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Speaker 1: I personally started. I feel like the Bucks underperformed in

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Speaker 1: this matchup. It just felt like this was a game

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Speaker 1: that they probably should have won by touchdown. They probably

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Speaker 1: should have covered, but for whatever reason, whether the the

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Speaker 1: Belichick magic or Foxborough or the rain, they just didn't

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Speaker 1: do what they needed to do to get the cover

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Speaker 1: For the ninety six percent of people who decided to

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Speaker 1: bet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight. Of course, they were

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Speaker 1: one for four in the red zone, they missed the

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Speaker 1: field goal. I mean, this team outperformed them in every

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Speaker 1: single category, more first downs, more yards. For whatever reason,

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Speaker 1: it just felt like the Patriots are hanging on. What

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Speaker 1: were your thoughts on this game?

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Speaker 3: This played out exactly like we talked about on a Friday.

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Speaker 3: You know, our buddy Matt Moore at Action Network always

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Speaker 3: says an NBA to bet the narrative. How many times

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Speaker 3: have we seen Bill Belichick coaching against one of these

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Speaker 3: elite offenses and it just comes the same thing every time.

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Speaker 3: It's like slow everything down, grind it out. No runs today.

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Speaker 3: The Patriots only ran eight times for minus one yard

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Speaker 3: all game, but lots of just short underneath. Just keep

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Speaker 3: it moving, keep the clock moving, make it easy for

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Speaker 3: mac Jones. And there we go, first half seven six

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Speaker 3: easy under Like we said, slow possession ball. The clock

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Speaker 3: just keeps ticking, keeps ticking, and it's like you just

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Speaker 3: want a shorter game, you want to shorten it. Keep

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Speaker 3: Brady on the sidelines, Patriots cover and then for all

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Speaker 3: the narrative, Tom Brady late drive in New England down

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Speaker 3: the field just like yeahwa's does it's am in position

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Speaker 3: for the field goal. Now, I wondered, would we get

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Speaker 3: the twist, would we get mac Jones returning the favor,

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Speaker 3: and then of course we get down there, we get

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Speaker 3: the field goal attempt, the long one joints off the crossbar,

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Speaker 3: because of course it does more narrative box win. We

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Speaker 3: had that one at plus three ten of bucks to

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Speaker 3: win by one to six at bet MGM, which we

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Speaker 3: gave out on our Friday pod, So I'm feeling good

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Speaker 3: about that. We checked off every narrative box on this one.

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Speaker 1: Got a doby. I didn't necessarily see it, but it

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Speaker 1: was a game that I wasn't really interested in playing

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Speaker 1: just because so much of the public was on that side,

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Speaker 1: so I kind of stayed away from me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, sloppy game too with all that rain certainly played

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Speaker 3: into the Patriots favor because you want it, that helped

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Speaker 3: slow things down. Tom Brady was struggling, I think early,

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Speaker 3: and kind of took something off as pass as late.

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Speaker 3: I was a little impressed actually, as messy as it

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Speaker 3: was before the kneel down to end the game, the

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Speaker 3: drives were touchdown, touchdown, field goal, field goal, field goal,

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Speaker 3: missed field goal. But if not for that last miss,

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Speaker 3: we would have basically ended the game on six straight

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Speaker 3: scoring drives, which, considering the stakes, considering the weather and

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Speaker 3: what was happening in that game, pretty impress of. We've

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Speaker 3: talked about the Bucks injuries all year. Carlton Davis went

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Speaker 3: out the hamstring injury just before halftime, Jamel Dean already out,

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Speaker 3: Sean Murphy Bunting already out. That's all three of the

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Speaker 3: top corners. Antoine Winfield went out late, and the concussion

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Speaker 3: of protocols, we don't know what's happening with him. The

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Speaker 3: secondary is going to be a big problem.

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Speaker 1: For Tampa Bay of course, and then when you look

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Speaker 1: at Richard Sherman and Matt Jones, when he threw to

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Speaker 1: his side, he was actually seven for seven when Richard

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Speaker 1: Sherman was the nearest defender, and that was like halfway

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Speaker 1: through the game. So it's just I think this secondary

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Speaker 1: is gonna be a problem. And if Tom Brady and

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers they can't continue to score points at will,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have some problems.

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Speaker 3: Well, I noticed that at the very least you're calling

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Speaker 3: him Mac Jones. Now McCorkle has been retired, Mike Michael

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Speaker 3: is gone.

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Speaker 2: Here. Did he earn Mac from you tonight?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, without a doubt. He played really well tonight. I

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Speaker 1: can't have any criticism. He let him down. Now obviously

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Speaker 1: they didn't. They missed the field goal at the end,

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Speaker 1: but he put them position to win.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I haven't seen Rookie of the Year odds

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Speaker 3: open up yet, but I have to believe, even with

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Speaker 3: the loss, that he's probably the leader in that one.

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Speaker 3: I got a couple other names to talk about with

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Speaker 3: Rookie of the Year coming up. But Tom Brady of

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Speaker 3: course set the all time passing yards record even that

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Speaker 3: was this weird kind of ampti climactic play where it

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Speaker 3: happened we went to a break, we took a time out,

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Speaker 3: came back and we're like, oh, just kidding, he had

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Speaker 3: an extra yard.

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Speaker 2: So that was that one. It was a weird night.

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Speaker 3: We got way too much Steve Belichick floating around the internet,

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Speaker 3: way too many close ups of him.

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Speaker 2: You know, lots of memes in this game.

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Speaker 3: Not a lot of spectacular football, but we hit all

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Speaker 3: the narratives.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I also hit the under on his games.

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Speaker 1: If anybody trailed me, hopefully you can. You can buy

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Speaker 1: yourself a nice dinner or something.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we hit well on this one. We

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Speaker 3: had a first half under, we had the full game

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Speaker 3: under from you. We had that Bucks close when Patriots

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Speaker 3: cover checked all the boxes on this one. So is

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Speaker 3: a big day in the NFC West. We finally had

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Speaker 3: all these top teams playing each other. I think the

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Speaker 3: marquee game of the day, no doubt, was the two

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Speaker 3: three to zero teams facing off, the Arizona Cardinals and

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Speaker 3: the Los Angeles Rams. This game was not even close

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Speaker 3: from the get go. The Cardinals destroyed the Rams on

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Speaker 3: the road thirty seven to twenty. You and I both

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Speaker 3: missed the bout on this one. Well, you were on

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Speaker 3: it early, but we were on the Rams late. I

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Speaker 3: really missed about what happened to the Rams here.

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Speaker 1: This was a strange game to me coming in and

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Speaker 1: there was a ton of sharp money on the Arizona

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Speaker 1: Cardinals coming into this game. I gave out the Arizona

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Speaker 1: Cardinals plus six on the hot read last week, and

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Speaker 1: then towards the end of the week you start to

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Speaker 1: see that they had three offensive linemen who just missing

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Speaker 1: practice the entire week. So I came into this game

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Speaker 1: thinking that the Rams defensive line would dominate and that

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Speaker 1: was anything with the case. Kyler Burray went out there,

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Speaker 1: he had a total EPA of fifteen point seven. This

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Speaker 1: guy threw two hundred and sixty eight yards two touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: and then it just felt like on every single third

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Speaker 1: down you'd have this team backed up third and sixth

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Speaker 1: team either Kyler Murray's just running for a third down

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Speaker 1: or he's converting it with a pass play. And you

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Speaker 1: looked at this team this, I mean, this Rams defense

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Speaker 1: was just so sob The Cardinals had a success rate

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Speaker 1: of fifty five percent or passing downs. They had a

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Speaker 1: success rate of sixty one percent with thirty four percent

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Speaker 1: of their passplay. He's going for first downs. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this Rams team could just not stop them. And then

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Speaker 1: when he came to them on offense, I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Rams just struggled to convert. It looks like the Cardinals

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Speaker 1: are probably the best team in the NFC West right now.

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Speaker 3: It looks like they're the best team in the NFC,

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Speaker 3: maybe the best team in the NFL right now. So

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Speaker 3: we'll come back to that. But to me, I'm not

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Speaker 3: so worried about the Rams on this one. It reads

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Speaker 3: is just kind of one of those days. You know,

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Speaker 3: Stafford had a deep interception on the second drive of

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Speaker 3: the game. Sony Michelle fumbled on the first play after

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Speaker 3: touchback early in the second quarter, So suddenly you're down

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Speaker 3: twenty one to ten, just like that. On these you know,

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Speaker 3: short easy touchdowns, your defense is already getting tired it

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Speaker 3: out because they've been on the field a lot. Next drive,

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Speaker 3: Stafford misses Cooper Cup deep for a touchdown. He's been

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Speaker 3: hitting Cup on everything all season. On the second half,

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Speaker 3: the Rams missed a field goal, they had a turnover

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Speaker 3: and downs on the one.

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Speaker 2: You know, it just everything went wrong. We've seen that.

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Speaker 3: You know, we saw that from the Packers in Week one.

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Speaker 3: They've won every game since then. I'm not so worried

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Speaker 3: about that. The offense, I thought moved the ball. Fine,

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Speaker 3: Definitely agree with you. The defense is the real concern here.

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Speaker 3: The Cardinals went three and out on the first drive

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Speaker 3: and then scored on seven of their eight remaining drives

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Speaker 3: in the game before kneeling at the end. Arizona had

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Speaker 3: drives of eighty seven yards, seventy five, seventy sixty four,

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Speaker 3: ninety four. That's just chewing up yards. And those aren't

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Speaker 3: huge plays either, like Arizona had been scoring. That's just

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Speaker 3: moving the ball down the field. Arizona raumd the ball

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Speaker 3: forty times and they were eight of thirteen and the

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Speaker 3: third downs. The Rams just couldn't get out the field.

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Speaker 3: So we talked about them earlier this year. You know,

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Speaker 3: the Rams couldn't get off the field against the Bears,

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Speaker 3: but then held up in the red zone. They couldn't

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Speaker 3: get out the field against the Colts than they held

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Speaker 3: on and it feels like things are starting to come

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Speaker 3: home to roost.

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Speaker 2: A little bit here.

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Speaker 3: They've got to play a lot of good teams still,

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Speaker 3: and you know, more and more where we're seeing these teams,

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Speaker 3: these top contenders, where their offenses are awesome but can't

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Speaker 3: stay on the field long enough and the defenses can't

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Speaker 3: get them off the field. So it's a strange season

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Speaker 3: shaping up where you know, the Rams look like the

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Speaker 3: best team in the league coming into this one. Suddenly

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Speaker 3: now they're feeling a little bit more like the Chiefs,

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Speaker 3: maybe more like the Bucks, where they can score plenty,

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Speaker 3: but the defense can't necessarily hold their own and it's

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Speaker 3: a shootout every time. So are you worried about the

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Speaker 3: Rams and their defense on this one?

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Speaker 1: I mean I have to be. It's just anytime your

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Speaker 1: secondary is struggling the way they struggle. I mean on

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Speaker 1: third and long, it wasn't just third and five or

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Speaker 1: third and ten, it was really third and long and

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Speaker 1: they just couldn't get off the field. It was problematic,

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Speaker 1: to say the least. So I just think I need

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Speaker 1: a little bit more from the defense if this team

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Speaker 1: is going to be who we say they are.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that that's fair. So let's talk about Arizona.

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Speaker 3: So the Cardinals are undefeated. We've still got only the

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Speaker 3: Cardinals and the Raiders are the last two unbeatens, which,

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Speaker 3: let's just be honest, neither of us had that for

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Speaker 3: either one of these teams. In our preseason pods, we

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Speaker 3: talked about Cliff Kingsbury as the first coach you get fired,

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Speaker 3: and instead the man is four to oh and the

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Speaker 3: Cardinals look like they could be the last unbeaten. So

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Speaker 3: here's my question. Arizona is still not really getting much

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Speaker 3: respect as far as playoff odds right now at BETMGM.

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Speaker 3: They are plus sixteen hundred to win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: which is only seventh highest. They're plus eight hundred to

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Speaker 3: win the NFC, which is tied for sixth in the

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Speaker 3: NFC as clearly the best team and the undefeated right now.

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Speaker 3: So how far do we have to swing on these Cardinals?

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Speaker 3: Is their odds like, should we be betting on those

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Speaker 3: numbers or is this just a team that's peaking early

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Speaker 3: and we're still not there yet?

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Speaker 1: Think you have to swing a little bit further just

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Speaker 1: because this NFC West, who we really thought was one

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Speaker 1: of the best divisions in football, it doesn't look as

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Speaker 1: good as we thought it would be coming into the season.

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Speaker 1: And we're gonna talk more about Seattle and San Francisco

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Speaker 1: coming up next. But when I look at this division,

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Speaker 1: they appear to be the best team in the division.

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Speaker 1: They appear to have the best offense, probably one of

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Speaker 1: the better defenses in the division as constructed. So and

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Speaker 1: my thing is I always come into this, I say

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Speaker 1: this all the time that if you win your division,

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Speaker 1: you're in the driver's seat. And those are the teams

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Speaker 1: that I like to look for as far as having

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Speaker 1: a chance to win the Super Bowl. So they've already

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Speaker 1: beaten the Rams at home. Some value on the Arizona

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Speaker 1: Cardinals lock, but I really think what the real value

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Speaker 1: is Bett and Kyler Murder went MVP because he's playing

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Speaker 1: out of his mind.

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Speaker 2: That's all.

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Speaker 3: Was just gonna say. I think that would be my

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Speaker 3: play if I want to play the Cardinals. I'm still

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Speaker 3: not there yet, but if I did want to play

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Speaker 3: the MVP for Tyler, all right, let's talk about the

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Speaker 3: other NFCUS battle Seattle in San Francisco, And yeah, I

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Speaker 3: think these are the two teams that were starting to

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Speaker 3: feel like are lighting the division down a little bit.

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Speaker 3: There are two that are not living up to what

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Speaker 3: the down cust was supposed to be. This game wasn't

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Speaker 3: actually that close. Seattle ended up winning twenty eight to

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Speaker 3: twenty one. We got the under the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 3: made it look closer at the end, just like every

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Speaker 3: Seattle game ever, but Seahawks kind of won with eas

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Speaker 3: What did you take away from this game?

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Speaker 1: You know, when this game first started, Seattle actually started

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Speaker 1: the game with five straight three and out. I've never

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Speaker 1: seen anything like it. And you know, one of my

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Speaker 1: things that I saw coming into this game was that

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Speaker 1: Seattle's offensive line is completely banged up and they're really

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Speaker 1: really really struggling to block, and if you can't blot offensively,

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Speaker 1: there's not much that you can do. And eventually you

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Speaker 1: saw Russell Wilson really take advantage of the problems in

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Speaker 1: the forty nine er secondary. But I'm really out on

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Speaker 1: both of these teams. Like, what is your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks and forty nine Ers as far as

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Speaker 1: their playoff chances and everything like that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was on Seattle on this game. I think

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Speaker 3: a lot of people were on Seattle. Even though the

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Speaker 3: Seahawks were underdogs. This was a very public underdog this week,

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Speaker 3: which scared me a little bit because it was my favorite.

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Speaker 2: Play of the week.

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Speaker 3: But then you know, and they got down early, but

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Speaker 3: then scored a touchdown on four of their next five drives,

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Speaker 3: and so my initial instinct was, yeah, I was right. Seattle.

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Speaker 3: They just took over this game. They had it all

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Speaker 3: the way. They just got started a little bit slow.

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Speaker 3: The numbers don't say that. The numbers have forty nine

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Speaker 3: ers out gained them four hundred and fifty seven yards

315
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Speaker 3: to two hundred and thirty four yards. They ran eighteen

316
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Speaker 3: more plays. They just had a bunch of mistakes. They

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Speaker 3: turned it over twice, none for Seattle. They were two

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Speaker 3: of fourteen on a third down, they fumbled a kickoff

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Speaker 3: and then had another botch kickoff return and missed the

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Speaker 3: field goal. And then, of course what we haven't said yet,

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Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo went out at halftime, had a calf injury,

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Speaker 3: did not play again, and Trey Lance came in and

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Speaker 3: at first for about a quarter and a half, Trey

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Speaker 3: my guy was not doing much. He had a big

325
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Speaker 3: touchdown at Deebo Samuel when Seattle just completely fell asleep

326
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Speaker 3: and left like half the field wide open. That me

327
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Speaker 3: or you would have thrown that touchdown. So we can't

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Speaker 3: give him too much credit for that one. And then

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Speaker 3: I think like halfway through the fourth quarter he had

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Speaker 3: still had one completion for the entire half. Then late

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Speaker 3: he got it going a little bit. He converted a

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Speaker 3: few fourth downs, he made a few plays with his legs,

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Speaker 3: ran for forty one yards, end up with two touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: passing one hundred and fifty seven yards. So this what

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Speaker 3: we saw from Trey Lance. It wasn't great. He's definitely struggled,

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Speaker 3: he wasn't ready, but he could make a few plays

337
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Speaker 3: for this team. So so San Francisco again, just the

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Speaker 3: injuries piling up. You're missing your stud I mean, Tren

339
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Speaker 3: Williams might be the best offensive line in the league.

340
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Speaker 3: He's certainly in the conversation, so he might be out

341
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Speaker 3: now you might be missing your quarterback. And we don't

342
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Speaker 3: know if Trey Lance necessarily ready. Up next for the

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Speaker 3: forty nine Ers the Cardinals, the teams that are undefeated

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Speaker 3: and just destroyed the Rams. So both of these teams,

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Speaker 3: you know, the Seahawks play the Rams now, and the

346
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Speaker 3: Niners play the Cardinals. And as much as the Rams

347
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Speaker 3: struggled today, it feels like the Rams and Cardinals are

348
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Speaker 3: much better than these two teams and our lineup to

349
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Speaker 3: both get a wins, and that could really put Seattle

350
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Speaker 3: in San Franz and Traveall.

351
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Speaker 1: Push back on it. The forty nine ers, they're kind

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Speaker 1: of equip to give the Cardinals problems. When you look

353
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Speaker 1: at what the Cardinals did wrong today, they really struggled

354
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Speaker 1: to stop the run. The Rams had a sixty rushing

355
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Speaker 1: success rate, They got first downs on thirty five percent

356
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Speaker 1: of their runs. They get him sixty eight yards rushing

357
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Speaker 1: in the first quarter. This Rams deep, This Rams offense

358
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Speaker 1: is struggled to run the ball all year. But Henderson

359
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Speaker 1: had fourteen carrigs eighty nine yards. And I think if

360
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Speaker 1: the Rams aren't playing from behind, the Rams are probably

361
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Speaker 1: running it down their throat. And I think, obviously you

362
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Speaker 1: got Trey Lance out there, you got the zone run scheme.

363
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Speaker 1: I think the forty nine ers are kind of laugh

364
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Speaker 1: next week. Now, obviously you're going to see a lot

365
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Speaker 1: of money coming on through Arizona Cardinals next week. But

366
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Speaker 1: there's a reason this line is only four and a half.

367
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Speaker 1: And I think Trey Lance, it's pretty clear that he

368
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Speaker 1: adds another level of variance that Jimmy g doesn't have.

369
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Speaker 1: And you saw it today like he's a playmaker. And

370
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Speaker 1: you give Kyle Shanahan a week to game plan and

371
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Speaker 1: put some plays in, and I think he's going to

372
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Speaker 1: perform well. And I think the forty nine ers might

373
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Speaker 1: be live next week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that's fair too.

375
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Speaker 3: My takeaway from the Cardinals after the way that they

376
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Speaker 3: dominated the Rams and dominated the scoreboard was all right,

377
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Speaker 3: I'm not totally in yet, but I think I just

378
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Speaker 3: bought a few more weeks to fade the Cardinals, and

379
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Speaker 3: I think that against the forty nine ers might be

380
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Speaker 3: a first spot to be able to do that.

381
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Speaker 2: What about the division?

382
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Speaker 3: So right now at bet MGM, the Cardinals and the

383
00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:56,200
Speaker 3: Rams are tied at plus one seventy atop the division odds,

384
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Speaker 3: Seattle is plus four hundred. San Francisco is plus six

385
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,320
Speaker 3: hund What do you think about that? Are you betting

386
00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:03,200
Speaker 3: one of those right now?

387
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,639
Speaker 1: I'm really not like, I think you got to let

388
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Speaker 1: this thing play out for a little bit more. I

389
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 1: think it's obviously a two team race right now. I

390
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:13,800
Speaker 1: love Russell Wilson, but I just I'm not a believer

391
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 1: in the Seattle team. Obviously, this secondary is struggle. And

392
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Speaker 1: then when you see the offensive line problems. I just

393
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 1: don't think you can touch Seattle. And I love the

394
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Speaker 1: Rams and I love the Cardinals, but I just kind

395
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Speaker 1: of need to see a little bit more.

396
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm ready to bet the Rams here.

397
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Speaker 3: I feel pretty good about this plus one seventy getting

398
00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 3: even odds with the Cardinals. Look just on Friday, I

399
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,400
Speaker 3: just put, you know, just recommended betting against the Cardinals

400
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,880
Speaker 3: even to make the playoffs. Obviously, they're in a much

401
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 3: better position to do that after this win, probably end

402
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 3: up being their best win of the season. But Arizona

403
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 3: still has a really difficult schedule coming up. They still

404
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 3: have to play five more games in this division. They've

405
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,400
Speaker 3: got other tough NFC games coming. They had really their

406
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:56,680
Speaker 3: easier games in non conference games earlier in the year

407
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,880
Speaker 3: that they got out of the way with already, and

408
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 3: Arizona has won my respect, but they have not totally

409
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 3: won me over yet. I'm not really too worried about

410
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,439
Speaker 3: the Rams as a top team in the regular season.

411
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Speaker 3: That defense that could be a problem when the games

412
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 3: really count in the playoffs. But I still feel like

413
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:18,400
Speaker 3: the Rams are a notch above these other teams. They're

414
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Speaker 3: playing Thursday night in Seattle. And as much as Seattle's

415
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 3: old line has had trouble and their defense can't get

416
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Speaker 3: off the field, that's a great spot for the Rams

417
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Speaker 3: to get right get back into control, and the Cardinals

418
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 3: do stumble the next few weeks, the Rams will be

419
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 3: right back leading the division again. So I like them

420
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Speaker 3: at plus one seventy. I think there's some real value there.

421
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 3: Definitely is the division that continues to be pretty interesting.

422
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Speaker 3: But let's move on to a few of our other

423
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Speaker 3: games here. Hit them a little faster before we get

424
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Speaker 3: to our wrap up. Our next one up is this

425
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Speaker 3: week's stink of the week.

426
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Speaker 2: Smelly, Smelly, smelly.

427
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: It's the smell. It's quite bungent.

428
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,200
Speaker 2: Plug your nose, it stinks.

429
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Speaker 4: This is your stak of the week.

430
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 3: This one's stung for me. I have been in on

431
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 3: the Falcons. I was believer for the season. They sucked,

432
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,680
Speaker 3: they lost the first two games. I wrote about them

433
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 3: as a possibility to come back and make the playoffs. Still,

434
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 3: today was their chance to be able to be in

435
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 3: position for that. They're playing Washington. The Falcons are up

436
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 3: eight with under four minutes left, and Atlanta is an underdog,

437
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 3: So I just need Atlanta to cover the plus one

438
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 3: and a half. They're up eight. This is like feeling

439
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 3: really good about this. Taylor Hennike drops back and basically

440
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 3: throws a Hail Mary up for grabs, like you know

441
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 3: when you're a kid and you're like five hundred and

442
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 3: you just chuck it up and see who can come

443
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 3: down with it.

444
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 2: He just throws it up.

445
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 3: I mean, they're down eight, somehow pull it in for

446
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,439
Speaker 3: the touchdown. They line up for two to go for

447
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 3: the tie and miss it, but there's a flag, so

448
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 3: they get another chance, and then they missed that one too,

449
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 3: so the Falcons are still up to I'm still feeling

450
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 3: good about my plus one and a half. Worst case scenario,

451
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,399
Speaker 3: Washington's gonna maybe get the ball, move down the field,

452
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 3: get the field goal. I'll still get the one and

453
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 3: a half cover. So sure enough, Atlanta goes three and out,

454
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 3: give the ball back to Heineke, who's not even supposed

455
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:16,920
Speaker 3: to be in the NFL, and he somehow drives Washington

456
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 3: right down the field into field goal range. It's third

457
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 3: and seven thirty seconds left. The only job here is

458
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 3: just hand the ball off, run the clock, kick the.

459
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: Field goal, and get out of here.

460
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 3: Instead, Heineke rolls left, throws across his body this loopy,

461
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 3: weirdo pass to Jad McKissick, who runs toward the end

462
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 3: zone and like Superman, leaps dives out. We got to

463
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 3: do the review. He barely crosses the plane for the touchdown.

464
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 3: Washington wins thirty four to thirty Atlanta backers plus one

465
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 3: and a half.

466
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I feel your pain. I played it too.

467
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 2: For me. That is our stink of the week.

468
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 1: But how about the real stink in the week was

469
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 1: that roughened the passer penalty on Chase where Matt Ryan

470
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,680
Speaker 1: is literally throwing the ball off one knee. He's down

471
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 1: and they called rough. I've never seen anything like that before.

472
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 2: Ye, that was rough.

473
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 3: That was definitely a rough I will say too, it

474
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 3: might be time to give up on this Washington defense.

475
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 3: You know, we had them as a top five d

476
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 3: coming into the year. Atlanta was the worst offense in

477
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 3: the league by dboa entering this game, and Washington couldn't

478
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 3: get off the field like this is a struggle. That

479
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 3: pass rush that's supposed to be awesome is not really

480
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 3: getting home, you know. Regardless of that that terrible penalty

481
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 3: you're talking about but Washington gave up three touchdowns to

482
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 3: Corderio Patterson. Corderio Patterson three touchdowns out of the backfield.

483
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know Washington's defense. We knew that

484
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 3: they'd probably regress a little bit, but regrets is supposed

485
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 3: to be toward the kne and not toward the bottom

486
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 3: of the league.

487
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 2: This has been embarrassing so far.

488
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:52,959
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt. I mean, when you look

489
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 1: at this team, it's really a struggle on their secondary.

490
00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:00,040
Speaker 1: Their twenty ninth in EPA per play this season, and

491
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: when you look at it, they're also twenty first in

492
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: success free. So this is not a team that can

493
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 1: really stop anybody.

494
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 3: Speaking of teams that can't stop anybody, let's talk about

495
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:13,120
Speaker 3: the Chiefs who finally stop somebody just enough to actually

496
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 3: cover a game. Yes, folks, Kansas City covered a football game.

497
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 3: They finally did it again, only their second cover in

498
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 3: eleven games. They finally finished a game not as a

499
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:28,719
Speaker 3: one score affair. Chiefs forty two Eagles, thirty zero punts

500
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 3: in this game, and Patrick Mahomes had five touchdowns. Tyreek

501
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 3: Hill had three one hundred and eighty six yards. Huge

502
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: game for him. The big difference to me was efficiency.

503
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 3: The Eagles only went three of six in the red zone.

504
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: They moved the ball all game. Did not make me

505
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 3: feel great about this Chiefs defense. But the Chiefs they

506
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 3: just converted when they had to. Patrick Mahomes was nine

507
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 3: of ten on third down, five of five in the

508
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 3: red zone. So I don't know that I left this

509
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 3: game feeling like, all right, the Chiefs of right ship,

510
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 3: everything is fine. Now if you're giving up thirty points

511
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 3: and six red zone trips to Jalen Hurts and this offense,

512
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 3: I might be a little more afraid than ever, but hey,

513
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 3: we got to cover.

514
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 1: Basically, this offense is gonna be able to outscore anybody,

515
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 1: but the defense is it's a real problem. Hopefully to

516
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 1: return to Frank Clark and Willie Bay can change some things,

517
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 1: but right now, I just don't see how this team,

518
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: we can look at this team is a Super Bowl

519
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 1: contender with his defense.

520
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, they play The Chiefs play Sunday Night against Buffalo

521
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 3: next week, which will be a real test to see. Okay,

522
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 3: here are two teams that you know. The Bills are

523
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 3: murdering everyone, So let's see what the Chiefs do against

524
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 3: a team that they might actually have to play in

525
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 3: the playoffs. One other takeaway for me on this game

526
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 3: for the Eagles, Davante Smith, the rookie receiver, that dude's

527
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 3: the real deal. He had seven catches for one hundred

528
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,199
Speaker 3: and twenty two yards. He had seventy one and a

529
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 3: touchdown in the opener I was and pressed against Dallas

530
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 3: last week. I'm looking at Rookie of the Year odds

531
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 3: for DeVante Smith.

532
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 2: I'm still not sure if these quarters gonna get the

533
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 2: job done.

534
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 3: Usually this is a stats award, and DeVante's Smith has

535
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 3: really kind of been off the radar for the most part.

536
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 3: Jamar chases the receiver's talking about. So if I can

537
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 3: see Smith that like a twenty to one or something,

538
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 3: I might be looking at him just to you know,

539
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 3: get a little piece of that. The offensive rookie of

540
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 3: the array still seems pretty open to me. So that's

541
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 3: why I'm kind of hunting for some action here.

542
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: It's interesting that you mentioned the Chiefs in a Buffalo

543
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:29,719
Speaker 1: Bill's game next week. This number actually opened up at

544
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: Chiefs minus four and a half. We're seeing this line

545
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: go down to three now. There's even some two and

546
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 1: a half's in the market. The total actually opened at

547
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 1: fifty seven and we're seeing that drop down to fifty six.

548
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: One of the reasons why is because Buffalo had probably

549
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 1: been one of the best teams at defending the Kansas

550
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 1: City Chiefs. They put that two deep high safety lookout

551
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 1: there and they forced the Chiefs to just throw the

552
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 1: ball underneath, and it's it's something that the Chiefs are

553
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 1: comfortable with. They're comfortable with running the ball with klae

554
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 1: l Hilaire going short, but it's not the ideal thing.

555
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: And I think that's why that total was starting to

556
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 1: come down. So you know, look out for that, and

557
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: you know, maybe the Buffalo Bills will probably have a

558
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 1: good chance of actually pulling off the win this time.

559
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: I know they played them tough out there in Buffalo

560
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: and then an AFC Championship game. They did have a

561
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: lead before the Chiefs put it together. But it should

562
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: be an interesting game then, should.

563
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: Be a good one. Give credit to the schedule makers.

564
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 3: These primetime games have been living up to billings so far,

565
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 3: especially these Sunday night games. We've got a lot of

566
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 3: good ones, a lot of clos.

567
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 2: And we got too.

568
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: We got two straight unders on these prime time games

569
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 1: after a nice little one. I think we pretty much

570
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 1: the first eight games all went over. Now we got

571
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 1: two straight unders. Maybe we'll see another one with this

572
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 1: one next week, especially since the public is starting to

573
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 1: push this thing down well.

574
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 3: One game that did not go over or go under

575
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 3: today was Cowboys Panthers, another unbeaten NFL. Cowboys won thirty

576
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 3: six twenty eight. A big over there. Cowboys got the cover.

577
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 3: I think that Dallas still is four to zero against

578
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 3: the spread. There the last team now that is undefeated

579
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,679
Speaker 3: against the spread. Carolina was the other one, and then Denver,

580
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 3: which who lost. Cowboys kind of rip this thing open.

581
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 3: They had twenty points in the third quarter. Thirty six

582
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 3: twenty eight makes it field close. It never really felt

583
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,719
Speaker 3: that close to me. Carolina finally had to bring their

584
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 3: number one defense against a real attack, and Dallas offense

585
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 3: just shrededt them. I thought, so, you're Cowboys fan, are

586
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 3: you feeling starting to feel pretty good about this team

587
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 3: of yours?

588
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 1: I think there's still some issues defensively. I think it's

589
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 1: so funny that you put this game right next to

590
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: Chiefs Eagles, because when I look at the Chiefs and

591
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, I'm kind of handicapping them in the same

592
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: exact way. Obviously, the Cowboys have a little bit better defense,

593
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 1: but I think the Cowboys have really been fortunate when

594
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 1: it comes to these turnovers, and I think that's that's

595
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 1: something that we saw for the Miami Dolphins all last year,

596
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 1: where they had turnovers every game, and I feel like

597
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are getting it done. Brave digs is out

598
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: here and get interceptions every single game. But I think

599
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: the story this game is that the Panthers they had

600
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 1: significant injuries at cornerback j C. Horne, Miles Hartfield, Justin Burris,

601
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: and you playing a Cowboys offense scoring thirty points per

602
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 1: game first and offensive success rate first and drop back

603
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 1: success rate, rust and success rate. His Cowboys offense is

604
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: a force to be reckoned with. Obviously, we saw a

605
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: throwback game from Ezekiel Elliott twenty carries one hundred and

606
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,239
Speaker 1: forty three yards. When the offense is quickly like this,

607
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 1: it's tough to beat. And then if you win a

608
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 1: turn over battle, you probably won't win seventy percent of

609
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: the time. And that's what the Cowboys did.

610
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:33,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, Dallas is looking good.

611
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 3: I mean the fact that you just compared them to

612
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 3: the Chiefs without batting an eye shows you how far

613
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 3: this team has come. You know, even the defense is

614
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 3: definitely not as bad as the Chiefs. Few defenses in

615
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 3: history are as bad as the Chiefs defense right now.

616
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 3: But for the Cowboys to go from, they were kind

617
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 3: of somewhat of an afterthought coming into the season. They

618
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 3: certainly weren't a team with a whole lot of buzz.

619
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 3: They always felt a little undervalued, and it's strange that

620
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: each week they still continue to feel undervalued. It seems

621
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 3: like finally we may have to catch up to that now.

622
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 3: But this team has had a really impressive first month.

623
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,959
Speaker 3: It was not an easy schedule to open the season.

624
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 3: You know, they're on the road in Tampa. They're on

625
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 3: the road against the Chargers. This is not an easy

626
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 3: one against Carolina. It looked better earlier in the season

627
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 3: until Carolina was three and zero and the offense is

628
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 3: just continue to move the ball. Well, they're number one

629
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 3: offense on first down and that was the case today.

630
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 3: Just kept getting into good positions. I like that they

631
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 3: were really attacking with their tight ends all game like.

632
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 3: It feels like Kellen Moore is is having very specific

633
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 3: scripts calling the plays and fitting against what the defense

634
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 3: has available. So I still think there's some value on Dallas.

635
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 3: This team really is coming to play. If you look

636
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 3: at the NFC, we talked about the Cardinals and the Rams,

637
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 3: there are the Bucks and the Packers. I just feel

638
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 3: like the Cowboys are right in that mix. And I

639
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 3: don't know why the Cowboys are any worse than those

640
00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 3: teams right now?

641
00:29:58,440 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 2: Do you think they belong in that group?

642
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 1: In today's NFL, where offense matters, you have to be

643
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 1: one of the best teams in the league. So I

644
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 1: think he kind of got to give the Cowboys some respect.

645
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: I can't stress how lucky they've been with these turnovers though,

646
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: and I think that might be the thing that comes

647
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 1: back to bite them into playoffs. They're playing better teams

648
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: and not turn the ball over as much.

649
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 2: But I mean, the.

650
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 1: Sky's the limit for this team when you have an

651
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: offense is good. One thing I will say is that

652
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: similar to Kyler Murray and I think we got into

653
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: this on Friday on strong strong stock Fridays, is that

654
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 1: I think Dak is an MVP candidate. You definitely want

655
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 1: to have some DK futures in your portfolio. As far

656
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: as the MVP, So.

657
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: I'll push back on that a little bit.

658
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 3: I saw that Dak Prescott over the last three games

659
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 3: is only attempting twenty five passes a game. I actually

660
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 3: feel like Dallas is maybe a little too good for

661
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 3: Dak Prescott to be MVP. They're running the ball so

662
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: well right now, Like we really like Dak coming into

663
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 3: the year, and I bet on Ceedee Lamb and Amari

664
00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 3: Cooper of receiving yards, receiving touchdowns. But the truth is

665
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 3: that the offense has been so good that Dak doesn't

666
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 3: have to be that good. You know, Kyler is doing everything,

667
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes does everything, Tom Brady throws all the touchdowns.

668
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: Dak is sharing because Zeke has been great and Pollard

669
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 3: has been great, and they're they're winning so easily right

670
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 3: now and the defense improving that I feel like his

671
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 3: volume may not be there and he might be able

672
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 3: to kind of be more we saw early in Dak's career,

673
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 3: kind of that game manager, you know, take care of things,

674
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 3: make the plays when you need to. So you know,

675
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 3: on the other hand, it's Dak Prescott, it's the Cowboys.

676
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 3: If Dallas goes thirteen and four, fourteen and three and

677
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 3: he's the quarterback of the Cowboys. He's going to be

678
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 3: in the mix for sure, but I don't know if

679
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: he's going to have the statistical case to stand up

680
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 3: with some of these other top guys.

681
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 1: What do you think Derek Carr has almost almost three

682
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: hundred and more yards than him, but Prescott is still

683
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 1: top ten and Dboway, he's second in success rate. He's

684
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: at the top chain in terms of all these metrics,

685
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: and they're gonna be on Prime Time. We're gonna see

686
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 1: him when they day, and we're gonna see them a

687
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 1: couple a few more times this year to have a

688
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 1: chance to win in big spots, and I think he's

689
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: one of two wins in big spots away from actually

690
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: having a shot. So I think there's some value.

691
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, you know, if nothing else, I'm gonna

692
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 3: have to put a little bit on Dak to win MVP,

693
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 3: just as a hedge for my near lock Comeback Player

694
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 3: of the Year at this point, because I feel like

695
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 3: the only way he doesn't win Comeback Player of the

696
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 3: Year is if you won MVP and then they're like,

697
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 3: all right, well let's give comeback to somebody else then instead.

698
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 3: So i'might have to hedge a little bit, but I

699
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,479
Speaker 3: think you have a good point.

700
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: He's definitely set up well. Dallas is set up well.

701
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 3: So if things swing back the other way and it

702
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 3: gets one of those big, big passing games, a couple

703
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 3: of big late drives, there could definitely be some value there.

704
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: I still think a lot of the voter still weigh

705
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 1: wins so much when it comes to MVP as well. Sure,

706
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: obviously since it's the Quarterbacks Award, so I mean, maybe

707
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 1: he's not gonna win something like Offensive Player of the Year,

708
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: but I think MVP is a little bit different.

709
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right.

710
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 3: All right, let's zoom through the rest of Sunday action

711
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 3: to wrap up Week four. America's Game of the Week

712
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 3: was a dud, with the Packers beating the Steelers twenty

713
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 3: seven to seventeen, thanks in part to a ten point

714
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: swing on the last play of the first half when

715
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 3: a phantom off side flag took away a Minka Fitzpatrick

716
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 3: field goal block touchdown return. Tough under for betters on

717
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 3: this one came up a half point short. We had

718
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 3: only one touchdown and five turnovers in last twenty minutes,

719
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 3: so that was a rough one there. The Vikings drove

720
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 3: seventy five yards for an opening touchdown on the Browns

721
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 3: and then never scored again. Seven of the next nine

722
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 3: Minnesota drives were three and out or worse. Cleveland one

723
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 3: our easiest under of the day fourteen to seven. Justin

724
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 3: Fields officially got his first win as the Bears beat

725
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 3: the Lions twenty four to fourteen. Another tough under for Lions.

726
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 3: It's a tough under and a tough Lions beat, with

727
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 3: Detroit turned it over four times inside the ten yard

728
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 3: land on that one, including in a way that only

729
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 3: the Lions can bouncing a snap off of Jared goff

730
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: In shotgun back over the line into the arms of

731
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,359
Speaker 3: a Bears defender. The Ravens beat the Broncos twenty three

732
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 3: to seven in a snoozefest that featured seventeen punts. Teddy

733
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,760
Speaker 3: Bridgewater left with concussion symptoms and Drew Locke reminded everyone

734
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 3: why Denver chose Teddy as the starter in the first place.

735
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 3: Broncos are not undefeated anymore, but their unders still are

736
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 3: at four and oh. The Colts got on the board

737
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 3: with their first win the season, twenty seven to seventeen

738
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 3: over the Dolphins. Miami scored a pair of fourth down

739
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 3: touchdowns late to hit the over, but Indianapolis controlled all

740
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 3: the way. Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills,

741
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 3: who got their second shutout in three weeks forty to

742
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,879
Speaker 3: nothing beat down over the Texans. Rookie Davis Mills had

743
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 3: eighty seven yards and four interceptions for Houston. They had

744
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 3: a six first downs all game and but certainly not

745
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 3: least start spreading the news.

746
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 2: You want to be a part of it.

747
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 3: New York, New York, the city that Never sleeps, is

748
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 3: on the board with its first two wins of the season,

749
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 3: the Giants and the Jets, one in overtime on the

750
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 3: same day. For the first time ever, Daniel Jones had

751
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,439
Speaker 3: over four hundred yards and improved to eleven and four

752
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 3: on the road against the spread. The g Men came

753
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 3: back from twenty one to ten late in the game

754
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 3: to beat the Saints on that one, and those little

755
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 3: town Blues also melted away for the Jets in a

756
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 3: twenty seven to twenty four win, another rough beat for underbetters.

757
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 3: It was ten to nine coming to the fourth quarter.

758
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 3: Then we had twenty nine points and hit the over.

759
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 3: There Zach Wilson got his first win in overtime when

760
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: the Titans missed the tying fuel goal. Congratulations New York Fans,

761
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 3: at least for today, you are King of the Hill,

762
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 3: number one, top of the list. All right, let's hear

763
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 3: a quick word from our sponsor and get to Money

764
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 3: Night Football.

765
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by betmgm, and

766
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,040
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784
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:06,280
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785
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786
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787
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788
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789
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,759
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790
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794
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 4: Not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. Let's

795
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 4: get back to the show.

796
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 2: All right.

797
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 3: Well, Monday night, we've got a division battle in the

798
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 3: AFC West Chargers and Raiders headed to LA. This line

799
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 3: is at minus three right now it's been moving around

800
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 3: a little bit minus three and a half back to

801
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 3: three again, the total is fifty one and a half.

802
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 3: The Raiders are on defeated, but they're underdogs on the

803
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 3: road in this one.

804
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 2: What are you thinking?

805
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 1: I'm actually thinking about though over this line opened up

806
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 1: at fifty two and a half and we're seeing some

807
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 1: under money that's pushing this down to fifty one and

808
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 1: a half. But my moto actually makes this game fifty three.

809
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 1: Look both of these teams they like to pass the ball.

810
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: The Chargers are passing the ball sixty five percent at

811
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: the time, while the Raiders are passing the sixty four

812
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,320
Speaker 1: percent of the time. We'd all know Justin Herbert is

813
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 1: the stuff. Derek Carr is averaging four hundred and one

814
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: yards a game, and I just don't trust this. This

815
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: Raider secondary to really stop. Justin Herbert and Mike Williams

816
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: and Keenan Allen like to me, the Raiders really haven't

817
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 1: been tested yet. Like I mean, we saw them go

818
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 1: up against Miami and Jacobe Brissette was able to lead

819
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 1: this team or comeback to push this game into overtime.

820
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson without many receiving threats was able to just

821
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 1: drive up and down and feel at will. So I'm

822
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: expecting the Chargers to be able to go out there

823
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: and score. And obviously the Raiders. Derek cars is having

824
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 1: an MVP like season and this Raiders offense has been

825
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,919
Speaker 1: able to score. And obviously I think this Chargers pass

826
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 1: rush will probably be one of the best pass rushes

827
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 1: that they face as far. But I still think you're

828
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 1: looking at a high scoring game. So Raiders are seven

829
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 1: to one to over the last eight games. I'm a

830
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 1: ride with it.

831
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, the pass rush on both sides, I think it

832
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 3: would be really interesting in this one. I was not

833
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 3: expecting the Raiders pass rush to be so good, but

834
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 3: they've been dominant so far. And this is a real

835
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 3: test for the Chargers offensive line. That was a unit

836
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 3: that I was really excited about coming to the season.

837
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 3: What improvements that they made. Rashaun Slater, the rookie at

838
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 3: left tackle, has been a really good so far, but

839
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 3: this is a big test for him. Right tackle has

840
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 3: been a big problem for the Chargers. Blaga is out

841
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 3: as all is with an injury, and that could be

842
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 3: a big test. And what's interesting in this game is

843
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 3: both quarterbacks are really good against the blitz, but neither

844
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 3: defense blitz is a whole lot, So it's going to

845
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 3: be interesting sort of chess match to see, Okay, do

846
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 3: we bring extra guys? If we do, either of these

847
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 3: quarterbacks can take the defense.

848
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 2: Apart a little bit.

849
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 3: I like the Chargers defense how matches up here too,

850
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 3: similar to last week against the Chiefs. Rand Staley loves

851
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 3: that too deep defense. You drop the safeties, you take

852
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 3: away the deep ball, and you force the other team

853
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 3: to check it down, throw.

854
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 2: It underneath, and run the ball a lot.

855
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 3: In past years, that's exactly what you would expected Derek

856
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 3: Carr to do Captain checkdown over here, just checking it

857
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 3: off every time. But this year the Raiders have been

858
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 3: thrown it deep and that's where the Chargers defense has

859
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 3: been better against it. The way to beat the Charges

860
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 3: right now is run the ball, and the Raiders can't

861
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 3: run at all.

862
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 2: This year.

863
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 3: They rank second to last in a rushing DVOA. The

864
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 3: offensive line has been much worse this year, and you know,

865
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs is a question as well. So with the

866
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 3: Raiders struggling to run the ball, I think that this

867
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 3: is going to be a tough test on both sides.

868
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 3: I like the way that the matchups trend here. The

869
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 3: Raiders second hasn't really been tested yet. Like you said,

870
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 3: they haven't really faced a quarterback like Justin Herbert who

871
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 3: can throw it the way he does, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams.

872
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,439
Speaker 3: Williams has been huge this season and kind of breaking out,

873
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 3: finally getting a stride there. So it definitely I had

874
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 3: the Chargers minus three as a hot read last week.

875
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 3: I still feel like the matchups really favor the Charges

876
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,720
Speaker 3: in this one, but it's a division game, the Raiders

877
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 3: are undefeated, and it feels like it could be a

878
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 3: tough one still. So do you feel like you have

879
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 3: a lean to either side on this one?

880
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I don't really have anything on side.

881
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 1: I want to fade that line move because I think

882
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 1: we're going to get a high scoring game.

883
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, a couple of things that are giving me a

884
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,879
Speaker 3: little bit of pause just on the field. I love

885
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 3: the Chargers here, but I had be careful one, two

886
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 3: and three in my notes, be careful. Number one short

887
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 3: road dogs. Four points are less on Monday night in

888
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,800
Speaker 3: division games. So that's the Raiders here are twenty eleven

889
00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 3: and a one, So sixty five percent cover sixty out

890
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 3: of thirty two of one outright, so that favors the Raiders.

891
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 2: Be careful.

892
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 3: Number two short underdogs this season are fourteen and eight

893
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 3: against the spread, sixty four percent cover all fourteen of

894
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,879
Speaker 3: those teams I cover to won the game. Another one

895
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 3: for the Raiders, be careful. Number three unbeaten underdogs are

896
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 3: thirty one and twenty two. That's a fifty eight percent

897
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 3: cover rate. That includes the Cardinals today getting that win.

898
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 3: Unbeaten underdog, So definitely in action Labs where all those

899
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 3: are from, the trends favor the Raiders here, I'm not

900
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,839
Speaker 3: willing to blindly follow the trends. I still like the

901
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 3: matchup for the Chargers. I think the numbers under rate

902
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 3: the Chargers a little bit right now. They've had a

903
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 3: lot of penalty yards. They've had multiple touchdowns taken away

904
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 3: in the past two weeks, and we have to see

905
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 3: those in the numbers. So I do like the Chargers here,

906
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 3: but I played the minus three early in the week.

907
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 3: If I had to take them, that's where I'd lean.

908
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 3: But all those trends going the other direction makes me

909
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 3: not really want to add to my position here.

910
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 1: I'll write a stat earlier is that the Chargers actually

911
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: allowed the eighth highest number of targets tight ends in

912
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: their thirty first success rate. Who does Derek Carl like

913
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 1: to throw the ball to Darren Wyler? So if you

914
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: look at for some props, maybe you want to take

915
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 1: Darren Waller over. Obviously the charge they struggle to stop

916
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 1: the run. If Josh Jacobs plays or Peyton Barr is

917
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 1: out there, maybe want to take some props on them.

918
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: But I just think we're looking at over it just

919
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: this feels like one of those years to where obviously

920
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier we got two prom time unders in

921
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 1: a row. Prom time overs have been killing it. Public

922
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 1: is pushing this number down. I kind of want to

923
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 1: get in on the over before it's the key numbers.

924
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 2: All right. I like it. It should be a good

925
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 2: Monday night football game.

926
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 3: We don't get a ton of division battles on Monday night,

927
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 3: you know, it seems like when we get a lot

928
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 3: of But it should be a fun one. I'm excited

929
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 3: to watch. We might be down to only one unbeaten

930
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,879
Speaker 3: team after this one. If the Raiders fall, we will

931
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 3: be down to Cliff Kingsbury and the Arizona Cardinals as

932
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 3: our final undefeated team in twenty twenty one. So let's

933
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 3: wrap up here with our Week five hot read. We're

934
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 3: gonna look ahead to next Sunday. We've been doing well

935
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 3: with our hot reds, getting the best of some of

936
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 3: these lines. I know that you are playing a couple

937
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 3: early totals for next week, So what's one of the

938
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 3: totals you like?

939
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 1: Okay, the first total I like is I like the

940
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles Carolina Panthers under forty six and a half.

941
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:27,240
Speaker 1: My model makes this game forty three. The Panthers before

942
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 1: they played the Dallas Cowboys, they were first to EPA

943
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: per play. They were first to success rate played the

944
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: Cowboys team which scored thirty one point five points per game,

945
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 1: first off of success rate, fourth and EPA per play.

946
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,760
Speaker 1: But now they're dropping back down to playing the Eagles

947
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 1: team which is just sixteenth EPA per play. We saw

948
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: the Eagles put up a dominant performance on offense, score

949
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 1: thirty points against the Kansas City Chiefs, a defense which

950
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: is probably the worst in the league. But I'm not

951
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: expecting this team to reproduce the offensive output this week.

952
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: You're dealing with injuries, on the offensive line, and they

953
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 1: have to face a Panthers defensive line, which is fifty

954
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 1: eight percent of the time they're creating wins with their

955
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 1: pass rush. When I look at the Panthers offensively, I

956
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: don't see how they're gonna put up that same offensive

957
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 1: outputs they put on the Cowboys either are a better defense.

958
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 1: Like I said before, my model makes this game forty three.

959
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 1: So at forty six and a half, that's enough descriptancy

960
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 1: for me to go under.

961
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 2: I like that one.

962
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 3: I don't do a lot of totals, but that makes sense.

963
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 3: That definitely seems like a very defensive, close sort of game.

964
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:33,839
Speaker 3: So I feel like you're gonna get some closing line

965
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 3: value on that one as it continues to move. My

966
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 3: first one, I'm sure is gonna end up being a

967
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 3: public play, but I'm gonna grab it before the line

968
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:45,280
Speaker 3: moves in the direction. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home against

969
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 3: the Miami Dolphins. I'll take the favorites here. They're at

970
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 3: nine and a half point favorites at some books. I

971
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 3: think this is just gonna rise, rise, rise, By the

972
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 3: time that we get to the game, we're gonna get

973
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 3: to thirteen thirteen and a half fourteen points. Everyone's gonna

974
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 3: betting on the Bucks, but I want to bet them

975
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 3: before that line moves up, especially at nine and a half.

976
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 3: You get to stay away from that ten points there.

977
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,839
Speaker 3: The Dolphins are terrible right now. They couldn't even show

978
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 3: up against Ada Colts team today. Dolphins had three points

979
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 3: until meaningless drives at the end of the game. They

980
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 3: scored twice on fourth down, but they finished the game

981
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,359
Speaker 3: with two hundred and three yards. The entire game, they

982
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 3: had under twenty three minutes of possession. They're just not

983
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 3: doing anything right now. The defense has not been good enough.

984
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,240
Speaker 3: The offense is barely moving the ball. I don't feel

985
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 3: like the Dolphins are gonna be able to move the

986
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 3: ball even against Tampa Bay with that secondary and shambles.

987
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 3: We talked about that, but this is a perfect spot

988
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 3: for Tampa Bay to get right because you don't need

989
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,839
Speaker 3: a whole lot of secondary against Jacoby Brissett and an

990
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 3: offense that can't really pass on you anyway. So Tom

991
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 3: Brady has not been throwing touchdowns. It's time for Tom

992
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 3: to get his numbers moving again. The Bucks, I think, finally,

993
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,720
Speaker 3: are relieved to be done with these last couple crazy

994
00:46:56,800 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 3: weeks and Tom will be ready to move on past

995
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 3: the New England game and put up a big number

996
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 3: on the Dolphins here. So I'm expecting Tampa to score

997
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 3: a lot of points. I definitely want to grab this

998
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 3: one before the line rises.

999
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 1: So I agree with you, But you do want to

1000
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 1: get that at nine and a half if you take it. Obviously,

1001
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: ten is a key number for those of you're not

1002
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 1: familiar with key numbers. If you were to look at

1003
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 1: NFL frequency of point differential margins, ten actually comes out

1004
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 1: four point eighty six percent of the time, almost five percent,

1005
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 1: So you want to get there before it gets to

1006
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:35,800
Speaker 1: ten ten and a half. Getting it at nine you

1007
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 1: find yourself in a good position.

1008
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 3: And thirteen and fourteen are other key numbers, right, So

1009
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 3: if this line continues drives to that way, you would

1010
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 3: want to get it before that as well. So grabbing

1011
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:46,759
Speaker 3: you at nine and a half, you're avoiding a bunch

1012
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 3: of those key numbers.

1013
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt. My second pick of the

1014
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:54,320
Speaker 1: day is I'm actually gonna go. We spoke earlier about

1015
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 1: how the Washington football teams defense is truly overrated. They

1016
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 1: played the same this week. Look this Washington football team

1017
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: secondary is really really rough. We know Jamis Winston really

1018
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 1: hasn't he hasn't had to throw his deep ball as

1019
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: much as he has in Tampa Bay. But I'm gonna

1020
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: go over forty three and a half. I think this

1021
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 1: is a really sneaky total to play. We're starting to

1022
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 1: see Washington football team totals going over. We have to

1023
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,320
Speaker 1: get rid of our preconceived notions about what this defense

1024
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 1: is because they're not slowing anybody down. And I think

1025
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 1: Sean Payton and this Saints offense is they're gonna wake

1026
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 1: up this week. And I also think the Washington football

1027
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,799
Speaker 1: team should be able to put up enough. Forty three

1028
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 1: is like a really low total in today's NFL. I

1029
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: think the average totals around forty seven or something like that.

1030
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 1: So I like this go over.

1031
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 2: I like that one as well.

1032
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 3: So my other one for this week is not a

1033
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 3: sexy game, but I'd rather just make a little bit

1034
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 3: of money. So we're going to Jacksonville where the Jaguars

1035
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:00,120
Speaker 3: will host the Tennessee Titans, and I like the favorite.

1036
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 3: The Titans are three and a half point favorites. It's

1037
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 3: another one where I expect that line to rise as

1038
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,319
Speaker 3: the week goes on. We already missed the three point

1039
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 3: key number. I don't think it's coming back. But earlier today,

1040
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 3: this morning, Sunday morning, that is, the Titans were minus

1041
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 3: seven and then they went out and laid an egg

1042
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:18,279
Speaker 3: and lost the Jets, and.

1043
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 2: We got the line cut in half.

1044
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:21,759
Speaker 3: At minus seven, I wouldn't have loved it, but at

1045
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 3: three and a half, there's definitely value here. I'm not

1046
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 3: so worried about the Titans. After that Jets game. The

1047
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:29,720
Speaker 3: Titans had a monster day. They had ninety three plays

1048
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,720
Speaker 3: to only sixty for the Jets. Titans picked up thirty

1049
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 3: first downs, and remember no Julio Jones, no AJ Brown,

1050
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 3: and they still dominate. Anyways. The problem was they just

1051
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 3: made a ton of mistakes. They got sacks seven times,

1052
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:45,239
Speaker 3: they had ninety eight penalty yards, they were five of

1053
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 3: nineteen on third down and two of five in the

1054
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 3: red zone. And even still, even without their two star receivers,

1055
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,320
Speaker 3: they still came a missed field goal away at the

1056
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 3: end of the game from coming away with a tie.

1057
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:59,320
Speaker 3: So I'm not worried about the Titans. The Jaguars stink

1058
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 3: Urban where you know, we're getting pictures of him out

1059
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 3: on the weekend. We can't be giving him weekends off.

1060
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 3: You know, he's probably already getting his resume ready, he's

1061
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:10,879
Speaker 3: getting a memo ready about you know, his his next

1062
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:13,959
Speaker 3: time to go hang out with his family again. Jacksonville

1063
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,399
Speaker 3: is just not good. Trevor Lawrence has thrown the ball.

1064
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 3: The other team Tennessee owns this team. They've won seven

1065
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 3: out of eight against Jacksonville, and four of those wins

1066
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,720
Speaker 3: are by twenty one points or more. Derrick Henry eats

1067
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 3: this team for breakfast and then he goes back for

1068
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:31,840
Speaker 3: seconds too. Like, this guy just destroys this team. The

1069
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 3: Titans are gonna win with He's an easy chance to

1070
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:36,560
Speaker 3: get them back on track again. So I love them

1071
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 3: at minus three and a half.

1072
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 1: Here. Oh yeah, that's not a bad pick. And also

1073
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 1: I think you definitely want to get there before a J.

1074
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,920
Speaker 1: Brown and Julio Jones are announced then because if they

1075
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 1: if they, if they're Annoulson, it's not is going to

1076
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 1: go up.

1077
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, jumping out.

1078
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:52,279
Speaker 1: Start jumping on our hot reads early. We've been doing

1079
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 1: really well. I forget what our record is last week,

1080
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 1: I know we killed it.

1081
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:59,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're getting great closing value. Too, so make sure

1082
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 3: to follow both of us on the app as well.

1083
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 3: You'll get these notifications when these plays come in. Don't

1084
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 3: wait around on these lines. Look, this line is not

1085
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 3: moving in Jacksonville's direction. Nobody wants to bet on Jacksonville

1086
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:14,240
Speaker 3: in this game, so it can only move in Tennessee's direction.

1087
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 3: As we get injury news, as money starts coming in,

1088
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 3: you gotta jump on these lines early. And that's what

1089
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 3: we're doing with our hot rate here. So that is

1090
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:25,759
Speaker 3: going to wrap it up today at the Action Network podcast.

1091
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 3: Please make sure to rate, subscribe, and review stocking raybon

1092
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 3: Or back Wednesday night with their NFL Betting Guide six pack.

1093
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 3: Raheem and I will be back Friday with their usual

1094
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 3: run through the slate for Raheem Palmer. I'm Brandon Anderson

1095
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:40,840
Speaker 3: and this has been the Action Network Podcast.

1096
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 2: We are on to week five.