WEBVTT - Stocks Rise as Government Shutdown Averted; McCarthy's Future 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:03.000 Good morning. 0:00:03.080 --> 0:00:05.920 I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the 0:00:05.960 --> 0:00:07.440 stories we're following today. 0:00:08.119 --> 0:00:10.880 The rise in futures comes after a deal was reached 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:14.280 over the weekend to avert a government shutdown. Bloomberg Market's 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:17.599 reporter Valerie Titel says, we're also continuing to see moves 0:00:17.600 --> 0:00:18.880 in the treasury market. 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:23.000 The sell off in the treasury market is continuing. Kind 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:25.520 of Perversely, if we did get a government shut down, 0:00:25.800 --> 0:00:28.240 it would cause a maybe a bid into bonds and 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:30.840 end this treasury sell off for now, but it looking 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.800 like we're not getting that. And remember last week, this 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:36.960 rise in treasury yields was the really big driver of 0:00:37.000 --> 0:00:40.159 why equities traded so weak. So perhaps this bounce in 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:43.120 equity markets could be a bit short lived if the 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:45.120 market does glance over to what's going on in the 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:45.880 treasury market. 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:48.760 Bloomberg's Valerie Titel says the next big event for both 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:52.080 the treasury and stock markets will be Friday's jobs report. 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:55.080 Well, Nathan, the stock gap spending bill keeps the government 0:00:55.160 --> 0:00:58.520 opens through November seventeenth, but it does not include six 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:01.760 billion dollars in a to Ukraine that President Biden had 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:04.959 been pushing for now, the President deserting House Speaker Kevin 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:08.280 McCarthy to act quickly on that funding. I fully expect 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:11.600 the Speaker to keep his commitments for secure the passage 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:14.600 and support needed to help Ukraine as they defend themselves 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:18.400 against aggression and brutality. President Biden says he can assure 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:22.280 Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski that the AID will get done, 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:25.399 but McCarthy says he won't do it without new security 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.920 proposals at the US Mexico border. 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.440 The priority for me is America and our borders. 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:31.920 Now. 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.640 I support being able to make sure Ukraine has the 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:39.280 weapons that they need, but I firmly support the border first. 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:42.720 And Speaker McCarthy made those comments on CBS's Face the Nation, 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:45.240 which you can hear every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio. 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.200 Well, Karen has McCarthy struck that bipartisan deal to a 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:51.080 vertic government shut down. The question going forward will be 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:55.240 will he remain as House Speaker. McCarthy angered many on 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.400 the far right, including Florida Republican Matt Gates. 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:02.280 If at this time next week, Kevin McCarthy is still 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:05.520 Speaker of the House, it will because the Democrats bailed 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:07.880 him out, and he can be their speaker, not mine. 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:10.680 Florida's Matt Gates told ABC's This Week, which can be 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:13.600 heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio, that he'll file emotion to 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:17.399 vacate the chair this week. McCarthy shot back at Gates. 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:20.880 He's more interested in securing TV interviews than doing something. 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:24.200 He wanted to push us into a shutdown, even threatening 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:27.200 his own district with all the military people there who 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.000 would not be paid, only because he wants to take 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:32.160 this motion, So be it. Bring it on, Let's get 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:34.040 over with it, and let's start governing. 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:37.079 Speaker McCarthy needs only a simple majority of House members 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:39.560 to stop the effort to remove him. Republicans hold a 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:43.480 slim majority, just five could join unified Democrats to bounce 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:45.760 McCarthy from the Speaker's office. 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:49.040 Well Nathan. Another political news this morning, Florida Governor Ronda 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:51.800 Santis says he would not accept any offer to be 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:54.400 Donald Trump's twenty twenty four running mate. 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:57.400 Now I'm running for president. We need somebody that can 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:00.440 serve two terms. We need somebody that can win states 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.720 like Georgia and Arizona, which President Trump cannot do, or 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:07.000 did not do, even though candidates like McCain and Romney 0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:08.640 had no problem winning those states. 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:11.960 Governor DeSantis made the comments on Fox News after Trump 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:15.560 told striking auto workers in Detroit that he's competing against 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:18.720 job candidates in the GOP field and did not see 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:21.040 a potential vice president in any of them. 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:24.560 And staying with politics, Karen, California Governor Gavin Newsom will 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:28.280 appoint Emily's List President Lafonza Butler to fill the remainder 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:31.520 of the late Senator Dianne Feinstein's term. Butler will be 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:33.840 the only black woman in the current Senate and just 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:37.560 the third in history. Feinstein died last week at age ninety, 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:39.080 following months of poor health. 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:41.480 When we turn to the economy now, Nathan, While many 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:44.880 on Wall Street expect a softer landing, Bloomberg Economics sees 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:49.000 a recession more likely. Our economists see many risks ahead 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.760 from strikes to higher rates and oil prices. 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:52.160 Now. 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:55.200 Despite the recent oil surge, Karen City Group predicts Brent 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:58.520 crude will collapse to the low seventies per barrel next year. 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:01.440 Strategist Ed Moore says the global market will swing back 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.320 to a surplus, checking Brent right now, it's hire by 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:06.800 four tenths of one percent at ninety two sixty one 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:07.400 per barrel. 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:07.920 Well. 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:10.720 In corporate news, Nathan x may mark this spot for 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.920 investor Bill Ackman. The Wall Street Journal is reporting the 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:16.920 billionaire investor is interested in pursuing a deal with Elon 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:20.880 Musk's ex Corporation as part of a new investment vehicle. 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:24.880 Acman's investment fund, Pershing Square, is regulatory approval for a 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:28.080 new vehicle to target private companies seeking to raise one 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.760 and a half billion dollars or more. He told the 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:35.080 journal that X is absolutely one of the options he's considering. 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:36.800 And sticking with. The tech space care and the head 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:41.200 of Microsoft will testify later today in Google's antitrust trial. 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:43.080 More on that from Bloomberg's Doug Krisner. 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:46.479 The DOJ has accused Google of paying ten billion dollars 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:49.560 a year to rivals, as well as smartphone manufacturers and 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:54.080 wireless carriers to make Google Search the default option. Prosecutors 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:57.080 hope to use the testimony of Microsoft CEO Satnia and 0:04:57.120 --> 0:05:00.599 Adella to show how his company couldn't unlock google hold 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.720 on the search market. Last week, a Microsoft executive said 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:05.920 the company failed to secure a deal to put its 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:09.680 bing search app on Apple's products, even though Microsoft was 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:13.240 willing to offer far better terms. Nadella was personally involved 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:17.040 and spoke with Google CEO Sundar Pachai. Nadella will probably 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:19.920 be asked about those conversations in New York. I'm Doug 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:21.080 Prisoner Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:23.159 All right, Doug, thanks in More trouble maybe ahead for 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:26.719 the commercial real estate market. Investors in Bloomberg's latest Markets 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:29.640 Live Pulse survey predict office prices in the US or 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:32.279 due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:35.320 faces at least another nine months of declines. About two 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:37.440 thirds of the more than nine hundred respond in surveyed 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:40.080 by Bloomberg believe that the US office market will only 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:42.839 rebound after a severe collapse. 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:48.160 It's time now to take a look at some of 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:50.880 the other stories making news in New York and around 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.320 the world, and for that were joined by Bloomberg's Michael LaVar. 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:56.880 Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan. Former President Donald Trump 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:59.640 confirmed on his social media post that he will be 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:02.320 in and your court room today for the start of 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:06.159 his fraud trial. Details from Bloomberg's Dan Schwartzman. 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:08.360 Donald Trump is expected to attend the opening of his 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:11.320 New York civil trial today. Trump is accused of committing 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:13.920 fraud by inflating his net worth by billions of dollars 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:17.560 in financial transactions. The Republican front runner for the twenty 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:20.960 twenty four presidential nomination is in jeopardy of losing control 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:23.560 of his real estate empire after a judge authorized New 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:27.160 York's Attorney General, Letitia James to cancel certificates for companies 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:30.279 that hold the assets. Trump's presidence at the civil trial 0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:33.080 is not mandatory. The trial is just one of six 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:37.080 the former president is facing, including four unrelated criminal cases. 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:40.040 According to a witness list filed with the court, Trump 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.599 is expected to testify in person later in the trial, 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.760 along with his two sons. In New York Dan Schwartzman 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:46.640 Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.440 A massive search is underway for a nine year old 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:51.520 girl who went missing over the weekend while on a 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:54.560 family camping trip in upstate New York. More than one 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:58.280 hundred searchers, including police and residents, are combing Moroe Lake 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:03.839 State Park of Albany after Charlotte Senna disappeared while riding 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:07.839 her bike in the park Saturday evening. Yesterday, authorities issued 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:11.720 in Amberger believing that Charlotte had been abducted. Governor Kathy 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.800 Okeletow reporters the fourth grader was biking with others before 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:15.520 it got dark. 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:18.400 She said, she's wanting to go around one more time 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:19.080 by herself. 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:21.480 Do that figure, I'll do it by herself. 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:23.640 Literally fifteen minutes later. 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:26.160 She hadn't come back yet, and that's really when the 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:27.120 nightmare begins. 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:31.040 The child was last scene wearing an orange tie dyed 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:35.480 Pokemon shirt. Student loan repayments have resumed. About twenty eight 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:39.200 million borrowers have to start repaying their federal student loan payments. 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:42.720 This is after a more than three year repayment pause. 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:46.400 Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by more 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:50.120 than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in over one 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:54.480 hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg. 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:57.320 Hey you you know where you are. 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:02.840 Hi, Nathanay, Michael, thank you so much. Now we'll be 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:05.160 sure to check back with you in the minutes ahead. 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:07.600 As of course, we do bring you the news throughout 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:10.800 the day here on Bloomberg Radio. But now wherever you 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.960 are you can get the latest news. On demand whenever 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.520 you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now get the 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:18.720 latest headlines at the click of a button so you 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:22.640 can be informed on your schedule. Listen and subscribe to 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:26.880 Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:33.120 com plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.240 Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:40.400 by Tri State out E. He's John Stashauer. 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:43.160 All right, Nathan, much closer game than expected in med Live, 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:46.079 especially since Kansas City LEDs seventeen and nothing in the 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.240 first quarter. You figured to be one of those nights 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:50.640 for the Jets. It was not. They rallied, tied the 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:52.920 game with the Chiefs won twenty three to twenty two. 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:55.760 Plays cost the Jets in the fourth quarter of Zach 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:59.760 Wilson fumble at midfield and three minutes later a holding 0:09:00.360 --> 0:09:02.520 that nellified would have been the jets third intercept for 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:05.320 the Patrick Mahomes. Wilson was asked if he thinks the 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:07.120 Jets would have scored. 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.240 They're going to. We just we needed we needed some 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.520 time and saw on the defense. So I mean we 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:13.560 had the ball with six minutes, five minutes or whatever 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:16.400 it was left and we're at midfield and you know 0:09:16.440 --> 0:09:18.400 we had a chance right there. So I need to be. 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:20.480 Better despite the loss, far and away the best game 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:22.360 that Wilson has played. Two teams at four and oh, 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:25.400 the Eagles and forty nine Ers. Miami's first loss was 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:28.200 by four touchdowns in Buffalo. Another game at Met Life tonight. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.760 It's the Giants and Seahawks, and we'll see how the 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:32.800 Giants do in the first half. Through three games, they've 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:35.360 been outscored in the first half sixty three to six. 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:39.160 Baseball regular season is over, playoffs beiging tomorrow. Before Yesterday's 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:41.560 Mets finale at Cityfield came the news that Bucks Showalter 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:44.880 will not be back as manager. Not all that surprising 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:47.360 with the season the Mets just hand. With David Stearns 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:49.840 taking over as the new Met boss. Showalter becomes the 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.400 third Mets manager in a row to last only two seasons. 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:56.120 Very sad news out of Boston the death of former 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:59.280 Red Sox pitcher To Wakefield. He was fifty seven. NBA 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:02.120 trade Portland go Drew Holliday from Milwaukee and the Damian 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:06.200 Lillard deal now Holiday Delta the Boston Celtics in Rome. 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.240 You're Upunon won the Ryder Cup the US, the seventh 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:12.600 loss in a row away from Home WNBA. The Liberty 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.319 beat the Sun. They'll play Las Vegas for the championship. 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:17.400 John stash Eller Bloomberg. 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:22.680 Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:27.679 Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:29.720 Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:34.640 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. It 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:38.920 is a crisis averted for now. November seventeenth is the 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:41.360 new deadline for Congress to come up with a long 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:44.600 term spending deal. But the forty five day stopgap that 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:47.640 President Biden signed really at the last minute, does not 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:51.040 include aid to Ukraine, and the deal is threatening to 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.520 cost House Speaker Kevin McCarthy his job with Florida Republican 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:57.839 Matt Gates vowing to push for his ouster. So let's 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:02.280 look to what comes next as spending fights continue in Washington. 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:05.600 Greg Valier is with US NOW Chief US Policy Strategistic 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:09.160 AGF Investments. Greg, Before we get to the fights to come, 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:12.360 i'd love to get your reaction to how this deal 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:16.000 got done really at the last minute, following a closed 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:19.480 door meeting with Speaker McCarthy and his fellow Republicans over 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:19.920 the weekend. 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:23.240 Well, I think a precedent, Nathan has been set, and 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:27.840 that precedent is that enough Democrats will vote for with 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:31.640 McCarthy for a budget for maybe to keep McCarthy a speaker. 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:36.480 It's a risky move, and some Democrats are saying, you know, 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.960 why should we do this. He favors impeaching Biden. He 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:42.280 renegged on the deal we got on the debt ceiling. 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.360 But I think that you'll only need a handful of votes, 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:49.280 and I think that McCarthy got that handful on Saturday. 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:54.800 He renegged on the deal for spending. Conservatives like Matt 0:11:54.840 --> 0:12:00.240 Gates say he renegged on deals on their side as well. 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:03.000 A big question I have to imagine in Washington, d C. 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:07.160 Is how trustworthy is Speaker McCarthy at this point. 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:12.520 That's a valid question, and nobody's perfect. I think you 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:15.600 could probably say that he was a pragmatist. He did 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:18.320 what he had to do. But you're right, I think 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.199 many of his own members and most of the Democrats 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.480 don't trust him. What he trusts are the votes and 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:26.440 he got the votes. 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:29.840 And the trust issue. I bring it up because President 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:34.240 Biden is now, even hours after signing the bill, coming 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:38.319 out calling on Speaker McCarthy and Republicans to make good 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:41.600 on Ukraine aid that was left out of this deal. 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:43.840 Is Ukraine Aid in jeopardy now? 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.679 I don't think so. I would concede to Nathan that 0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:51.440 the signals this weekend were quite alarming to Western Europe 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:55.679 in general and to Ukraine in particular. But I do 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:57.840 think the votes are certainly there in the Senate with 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:01.800 Mitch McConnell, who did so for an embarrassment on Saturday, 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:06.199 coming back to getting of Ukraine aid, and I think 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.400 Kevin McCarthy also will go along with it. 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:12.440 Are the votes there for border security because we did 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:16.640 hear the Speaker over the weekend on CBS saying that 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.520 he wants to get border security done first. Is that 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.760 something that Democrats in the House can get behind. 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:25.280 Yes. I think there are two or three things you've 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:28.200 got to get done. One is border security and others 0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:32.080 we've discussed as Ukraine, and the other is getting individual 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:36.359 appropriation bills done. There are twelve. The House is about 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:39.520 there on four. The Senate has done none, So between 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:41.960 now and November seventeenth, you've got to make progress on 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:45.600 all three. I'm not sure there's a deal by November seventeenth, 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:50.160 and maybe just December seventeenth or January seventeenth. But I 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.960 think after what happened this weekend, it's just a matter 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:54.160 of when, not whether. 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:56.280 So when you say that there's not going to be 0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.880 a deal till maybe December or January, are you talking 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:02.760 specifically about border security? Are you're talking about appropriations bills? 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.920 What could this look like if the can continues to 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:06.720 get kicked further? 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.760 Eventually there will be a deal on the total budget. 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:15.200 Maybe it'll be the twelve appropriation bills and you add 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:17.880 them all up and you've got the budget. But I 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:22.240 do think you will get that. And if McCarthy is out, 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:25.800 and that's something you can't totally dismiss. I don't see 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:29.600 anyone succeeding him who would be more dynamic or more 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:31.840 successful in getting a bill done. 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:35.120 Well, let's get to that question, because that is obviously 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:38.720 getting a lot of attention now with Congressman Gates saying 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:41.040 that he's going to file motions to vacate as soon 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:44.560 as this week, how do you see this playing out. 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.960 Is it going to be another replay of the fight 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:51.160 over just installing Speaker McCarthy. 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:56.400 It could be, And you can't overstate the level of 0:14:56.400 --> 0:15:02.600 antipathy toward Gates among both parties, especially Republicans. A vast 0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:06.240 majority of Republicans detest him and are hoping that he 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:10.120 fails this week with McCarthy. But this could drag on 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:11.520 for quite some time. 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:16.560 To your point, if there were a successful motion to 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:20.360 vacate Speaker McCarthy, who succeeds him? 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:25.000 Who wants this job's that's the key point. And I 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.720 think what he has going for in more than anything else, 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:32.680 is no logical successor. In a year or so ago, 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:36.120 I would have said Steve Scalise, but he's suffering from 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.280 a serious illness. But right now, no, I don't see 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:42.240 anyone who you could say, oh, yeah, that's a logical pick, 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:45.680 and that is a great asset for Kevin McCarthy. 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:51.120 Finally, Greg, I have to ask you, after this protracted fight, 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:55.320 these weeks of wrangling over whether the government was going 0:15:55.400 --> 0:16:00.120 to stay open, who's empowered after all this? Which wing 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:03.960 of the Congress can say that they notched a win? 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:06.960 There's a new player in town, a big player, and 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:10.960 that's Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority leader, who will call 0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:13.360 the shots and tell his members in the next few 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:16.520 days vote for McCarthy, don't vote for him. I think 0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:20.000 he'll have a lot of influence. But it's a valid 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:23.600 issue that it's a very weak leadership. The markets and 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.400 the credit rating agencies must not be pleased with what 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.880 they're seeing. But final point, I think a headwind for 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:32.080 the overall economy has been avoided. 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.840 Really appreciate your insights this morning after the morning after 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:42.960 the deal to get the government continued to stay open. Here, 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.080 Thank you so much, Greg Valiere, chief US policy strategist 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:51.680 at AGF Investments. And with that allusion to the market reaction, 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:55.840 the sigh of relief, I think we can say for investors, 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.960 let's get more on how this market is reacting. We're 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:02.880 joined now by Laurie Calvacina, head of US equity strategy 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:06.200 at RBC Capital Markets. We are seeing a lift to 0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:10.080 futures this morning, LORI, is this about the government staying 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:13.840 open or is this about the losses that we saw 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:16.440 in September and maybe a little bit of buying there. 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:19.520 Well, thanks for having me as always, and I think 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.800 it's a combination of both. You know, September certainly lived 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:25.320 up to its reputation as being a week seasonal month. 0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:28.960 October trends aren't always fantastic, but you know, on average, 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:31.440 tend to be a little bit better. And I think 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:34.760 also we did see, finally, you know, the market start 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.159 to pay attention to the government shut down last week. 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:39.120 So I do think there's a bit of a sigh 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:41.719 of relief here today. I think, you know, we expect 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:43.280 to see green on the screen at the end of 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:45.720 the day, but when we step back, we have to 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.720 take stock of the fact that last last week, yes 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:52.159 there was concern, but there wasn't panic. And you know, 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:53.879 and while we never like to see panic in the 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.159 US equity market, do we think the sentiment got so 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:59.160 bad that it can be a springboard to push things 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.240 hire through the end of the year. I don't think 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:03.520 we're at that place. I think we're getting close, but 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:05.639 I don't think we quite got there last week. 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:09.239 Should there be concerned in the market that this is 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:14.320 going to potentially continue this fight over spending about six 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.760 and a half weeks from now, when the November seventeenth, 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:17.840 deadline comes around. 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:20.760 Well, well, I'll tell you that was my instant reaction. 0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:23.440 And I've seen some some emails floating around some the 0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:27.200 trading community this morning also, you know, sort of alluding to, Okay, 0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:28.440 we are we just going to have to do this again, 0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:31.240 or you know, we just setting up for another showdown 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:33.639 in six weeks. And I think, you know, on the 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:35.639 one hand, I am, you know, feeling a little bit 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:37.600 better that there was an adult in the room. This speaker, 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:40.480 McCarthy said that, you know, managed to get things done, 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:43.240 but there are some still some really big fights yet 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.600 to be fought. And remember, the government shut down was 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.240 never something that we, you know, on our on its own, 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:52.040 you know, thought was this massive negative for the equity market. 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:54.520 Most Americans do assume that they will eventually, you know, 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.800 come to a come to an agreement. But there are 0:18:57.800 --> 0:18:59.639 a lot of little things that have been hitting the market, 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:01.840 and I would put this in that category of maybe 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:04.720 a medium sized one. We've also got ongoing concern about 0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:08.840 the strikes. We've got concern about the student lending payments restarting, 0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:11.760 we've got a big earning season coming up, and none 0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:14.040 of those other things that investors were worried about last 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:16.360 week in addition to the shutdown, have suddenly been washed 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:17.359 away with this deal either. 0:19:17.760 --> 0:19:20.920 Yeah, you mentioned some of those potential catalysts from the 0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:25.600 ongoing strikes to the start of another earning season. What's 0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:29.399 the biggest risk that you see for markets as we 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:30.679 get this fourth quarter started? 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:36.199 Excuse me? So, I think that the biggest problem that 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:37.800 I see. And here, you know, we've heard a lot 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:40.840 about sort of tax off selling over the past month. 0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.960 Strange things tend to happen at the end of the year, 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:47.560 especially ball attle years, and I don't really get the 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:50.560 impression that investors feel like they're getting a whole lot 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:53.920 of information coming from Corporate America at this point in time. 0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:56.359 So I think there's a lot kind of writing on 0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.600 this earning season that's coming up, you know. I think 0:19:59.640 --> 0:20:02.280 invest I heard frankly from some people who went through 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:04.720 the last last amount of conferences and didn't feel like 0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:07.200 they heard all that much information. I don't feel like 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:09.720 we got a ton of information about twenty twenty four 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:13.240 in the last recording season. So I think investors are 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:15.960 looking for clues on how the next year is going 0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:18.720 to enfold, so they can really inform their valuation discussions, 0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:20.879 and I think for me personally, the biggest concern is 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:23.440 we go through another reporting season and just don't get 0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:25.399 a lot of guidance from companies that's going to make 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:27.520 investors feel enthoosed to buy the marketing here. 0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:32.440 We have seen some pretty gloomy investor sentiment in recent weeks. 0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:34.360 Has I gotten overdone? 0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:35.119 Do you think? 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:37.960