WEBVTT - A Look Ahead To Monterey Car Week 

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to get

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<v Speaker 1>right over to Dave Major's. He is chief executive officer

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<v Speaker 1>Mikam Auctions, and they've got uh uh, the Micham Montgomery

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<v Speaker 1>Auction coming up August twelve through in what is now

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<v Speaker 1>a record setting collector car market. Dave, thanks so much

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<v Speaker 1>for joining us. Greg Jarrett had a nineteen fifty seven

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<v Speaker 1>MG a hardtop racing coupe and blew out the freeze

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<v Speaker 1>plugs one morning doing a hundred forty miles per hour

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<v Speaker 1>when he saw a cop suddenly let off changing compression

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<v Speaker 1>blow them all out. Can we find him another one?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure that we probably can do that. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think we have one in the Monterey lineup.

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<v Speaker 1>We certainly have a lot of interesting replacements if he,

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<v Speaker 1>if he so chooses, So let's let's talk about some

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<v Speaker 1>of that lineup. What do you think is the hottest

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<v Speaker 1>car that's going to be auctioned off in a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of days here. Well, you know, Monterey is always a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty unique event for us, and it's uh, this will

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<v Speaker 1>be our seventeenth events since we went back to auction

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<v Speaker 1>in in June. We've seen a lot of beautiful cars,

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<v Speaker 1>but I don't think I've seen a collection like I

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<v Speaker 1>have coming up Monterrey for the next three days Thursday,

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<v Speaker 1>Friday Saturday next week. And there's it's such an eclectic mix.

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<v Speaker 1>It's kind of one of those that whatever you're looking for,

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<v Speaker 1>there's you know, just in my mind the cars that

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<v Speaker 1>I look at that will be there. There's a nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nine Dusenberg Model J which is and it's a convertible,

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<v Speaker 1>which makes it very unique. And those you know, everybody

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<v Speaker 1>knows dus and Birds were spectacular vehicles to begin with.

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<v Speaker 1>They were in their day back in the nineteen twenties

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<v Speaker 1>and thirties, and and they still are today. But then

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<v Speaker 1>there's a couple of other, um, what I think are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be very interesting cars. In the eighteen fifty

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<v Speaker 1>two Ferrari three forty that raced a Lama too. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>the blue Car race to a fifth place finish. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know again, kind of a one of one car.

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<v Speaker 1>That's I think it's going to attract a lot of attention.

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<v Speaker 1>And my personal favorite, if you've seen any of the

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<v Speaker 1>pictures online at at mecom dot com, is the thirty

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<v Speaker 1>six Delahy Type one thirty five tier drop. If you're

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<v Speaker 1>familiar with Dela Hayes, uh, they Delahayes to me are

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<v Speaker 1>the epitome of art beauty. That's like the Ralph Lauren car, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Ralph Laurens exactly. There's just absolutely every one of them,

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<v Speaker 1>regardless of what model or yeared is. Every one of

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<v Speaker 1>the Dela Hayes is absolutely beautiful. And I think this

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<v Speaker 1>is this is probably the best one I've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>my career. So I'm I'm just excited to get to

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<v Speaker 1>Monterey and get out on Delmonte Golf Course and see

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<v Speaker 1>six hundred beautiful cars and and get get things underway.

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<v Speaker 1>I love the Ferraris. The three forty is amazing. You've

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<v Speaker 1>got a seventy two UM three sixty five Daytona that

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<v Speaker 1>looks quite cool at sixty five super fast UM which

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<v Speaker 1>which Kayley and I both love, but we're more into muscle.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. Kaylee's dad has a G t O. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and oh yeah, God blas him. I'm looking at, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the riviera. I like, big Al has a riviera. He's

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<v Speaker 1>got a sixty eight in polya convertible. Um that that

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<v Speaker 1>looks really nice. Who is big Al? I'm looking at

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<v Speaker 1>big Al's collection. He's got a lot of cars for sale. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually I can't disclose that. I can tell you he

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<v Speaker 1>is from the Northwest, I see, and that's about us.

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<v Speaker 1>That's about as far as I can say. That's that's

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<v Speaker 1>why it's listed as the big Al collection. Well he's

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<v Speaker 1>got even though that's a pretty eclectic group of cars too,

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<v Speaker 1>because I think it, you know, as you mentioned, like

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<v Speaker 1>a riviera, but there's a law ferrari. Yes, so it's

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<v Speaker 1>you know, that's that's kind of one extreme to the other.

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<v Speaker 1>But well, for me, a riviera means you've got taste,

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<v Speaker 1>and a law ferrari means you have money. So we

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<v Speaker 1>just we just came from from our auction in Orlando,

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<v Speaker 1>Florida last weekend, and there was a collection of I

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<v Speaker 1>believe thirteen rivieras in that in that auction from one

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<v Speaker 1>collector and all of them meticulously restored, beautiful cars. So

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<v Speaker 1>how much are these going for him? I remember um

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<v Speaker 1>watching mikam auctions one morning, probably a decade ago, and

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<v Speaker 1>UM seeing a Barracuda go for like three point four

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<v Speaker 1>million bucks, and I was like, oh my god, unbelievable.

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<v Speaker 1>So so so what are we talking about for American

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<v Speaker 1>muscle It just seems amazing to me to see them

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<v Speaker 1>going for ferrari prices. Yeah, you know, it really depends

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<v Speaker 1>um and and certain models are hot at certain periods

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<v Speaker 1>of time. Corvettes are particularly hot right now. Depends on

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<v Speaker 1>the model, depends on the make, depends on the restoration.

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<v Speaker 1>But American muscle cars, you know, there are those that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I might call beginner cars that from the

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<v Speaker 1>sixties and seventies that you know, you I be able

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<v Speaker 1>to get into for twenty dollars or less. And then

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<v Speaker 1>there are some that are in the millions of dollars

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<v Speaker 1>depending on what they are. And you know, the Hemi Kudas,

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<v Speaker 1>the Daytona coups Um, the super Birds. Those cars attract

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of attention and obviously attract a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>dollars as well. You know, here in New York the

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<v Speaker 1>Auto Show they just canceled yesterday because of concerns around

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<v Speaker 1>the delta variant. Do you expect any disruptions not just

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<v Speaker 1>at Monterey but in your events and auctions throughout the fall, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that just means more bitters online. Well, we, as I said,

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<v Speaker 1>we came back to live auctions in June with a

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<v Speaker 1>revised eleven page safety protocol and a completely different business

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<v Speaker 1>model for for live auction events for live attended events,

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<v Speaker 1>and we we've become very good at executing on that model.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're prepared as Mikam Auctions, as we have been

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<v Speaker 1>for the last sixteen months, to to take whatever comes

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<v Speaker 1>our way. But we do see because of the delta

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<v Speaker 1>variant um going back, for instance, to the Orlando auction

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<v Speaker 1>last weekend, in the middle of that auction, the Mayor

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<v Speaker 1>of Orlando issued an indoor mass order, so we were

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<v Speaker 1>ready to comply with that. I don't think since Monterey

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<v Speaker 1>is an outdoor auction on the golf course, I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>really expecting much to change between now and then, But

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<v Speaker 1>certainly as we look forward to the rest of our

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<v Speaker 1>schedule and even into two with places like Dallas and

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<v Speaker 1>Chicago and Las Vegas. I think we're probably going to

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<v Speaker 1>see a little tightening of the of the restrictions. All right, Dave,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us. Always a pleasure to

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<v Speaker 1>talk to. Dave Major, chief executive at Mikam Auctions on Monterey.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, let's get over to Nick Freeling Highs and

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<v Speaker 1>right now bring it back to markets. He's managing director

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<v Speaker 1>at Shelton Trust. He's a portfolio manager of equities there

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<v Speaker 1>and Nick, you know, we we were talking with Brent

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<v Speaker 1>Shooty a little bit earlier, and he was pretty bullish

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<v Speaker 1>on UM, on the cyclical and also on you know,

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<v Speaker 1>smaller cap stocks as well as European equities, saying that

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<v Speaker 1>he thinks some of the money is going to come

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<v Speaker 1>back in from the bond market and from these super

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<v Speaker 1>growthy mega tech megacap tech stocks. What do you think

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<v Speaker 1>about that? Yeah, I mean I think that's first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>it's nice to be with you guys today, and thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for having me on UM. You know, I think that

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<v Speaker 1>that's perfectly possible if in fact we get a sharp

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<v Speaker 1>move higher and raps um, because I think that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of growth quarter to date has basically been dominating value

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<v Speaker 1>right by about three fifty basis points because I think

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<v Speaker 1>the concern more recently is sort of peak Garnians growth,

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<v Speaker 1>peak GDP growth peak, you know, easy bet, easy money policies,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think there has been sort of a return

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<v Speaker 1>to a focus on quality and sort of durable growth,

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<v Speaker 1>which is actually as a sort of a investment philosophy

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<v Speaker 1>is where children trust sort of focuses. But I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's perfectly possible. I mean, look, we're we're reasonably constructive

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<v Speaker 1>broadly in stocks, and you know, we have a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of clients asked as constantly sort are we in an

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<v Speaker 1>equity bubble? And um, I just think that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the liquidity backdrop here is it's really pretty extraordinary. It's

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<v Speaker 1>it's unlike you know, anything we've seen in a long time.

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<v Speaker 1>You've got corporate balance sheet sitting on over to trillion,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got consumer sitting on three trillion and nextss savings.

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<v Speaker 1>And then this morning the Journal found it interesting to

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<v Speaker 1>note that both JP Morgan and Bank America are talking

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<v Speaker 1>about sitting on one trillion and unused corporate credit. So,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think that all bodes quite well for

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<v Speaker 1>people buying pullbacks in this market, but also for a

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<v Speaker 1>sort of an imminent capex cycle that could be coming.

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<v Speaker 1>So obviously there's a lot of money splashing around in

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<v Speaker 1>the system. Where do you think that money is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be going Not just obviously equities broadly is what

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<v Speaker 1>you think. But but where in the equity market do

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<v Speaker 1>you think is going to see the like the highest

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<v Speaker 1>returns going forward? Yeah, I mean, our focus really is

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<v Speaker 1>on durable growth and we like to owned businesses where

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<v Speaker 1>we don't feel like we need to rely upon sick lotality. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, I think that, um, it'll really sort

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<v Speaker 1>of depend on sort of the inflationary picture going into

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<v Speaker 1>next year. We sort of have a view that what

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing currently in in inflation isn't sort of something

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<v Speaker 1>that's structural and going to be persistent. We actually think

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the inflation is concentrated in sort of

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<v Speaker 1>a select group of goods. And I think if if

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<v Speaker 1>growth slows into two thousand twenty two, I think people

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<v Speaker 1>are actually going to return to a focus on quality

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<v Speaker 1>and growth. Um. And that's really sort of where our

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<v Speaker 1>bread and butter is and where we focus our investments

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<v Speaker 1>as a firm. What are you expecting in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the jobs number on Friday and and really in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of jobs coming back throughout the rest of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think the print is sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>expectation as anything short of a million would be a disappointment. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know, I think the return of labor is

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<v Speaker 1>a critical component, uh, to sort of putting some of

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<v Speaker 1>the inflation fears to rest, because I feel like UM

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<v Speaker 1>as a firm, we're sort of focused on this issue

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, consumers really never went through a recession

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<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and twenty. The sort of extraordinary thing

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<v Speaker 1>about it was, you know, disposable personal income was actually

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<v Speaker 1>up six percent, but then on the other side you

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<v Speaker 1>had sort of massive supply chain bottlenecks that were a

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<v Speaker 1>result of manufacturing and production really ramping down. Thinking that

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<v Speaker 1>it would be several years before we got back to

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand nineteen levels. Really, you know, the hope is

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<v Speaker 1>that we're going to see a lot of job growth,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, particularly in things like manufacturing and logistics, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>but as well in things like food service and what

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<v Speaker 1>hospitality and leisure, because I think that's a critical component

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<v Speaker 1>of sort of quieting this issue that we have with

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<v Speaker 1>sort of you know, inflation and availability of labor. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so we know, the FED is watching the labor market

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<v Speaker 1>story and the inflation side of the story. And even

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<v Speaker 1>if inflation is transitory, a lot of companies are raising

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<v Speaker 1>prices is their face with higher input costs and they're

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<v Speaker 1>passing that right onto the consumer. Do you expect that

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<v Speaker 1>to remain the case in margins to hold in. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>So that's the big concern in the second quarter. I mean, look,

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<v Speaker 1>the second quarter earnings, corporate earnings have been fantastic. If

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<v Speaker 1>we are assigning classroom grades, I think it would be

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<v Speaker 1>a straight a. The concern is the ability to pass

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<v Speaker 1>on input costs inflation. So you know you're seeing sort

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<v Speaker 1>of in a in a case like floor rox this week,

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing sort of that becoming a very big issue.

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<v Speaker 1>I would sort of contract that with you know, one

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<v Speaker 1>of our largest holdings of Sherwin Williams, where of their

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<v Speaker 1>of their costs of good sould is impacted by the

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<v Speaker 1>moodity inflation. Well they passed about seven ten to eleven

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<v Speaker 1>of that on in price because they can without an

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<v Speaker 1>impact on demand. So I think if you're investing, it's

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<v Speaker 1>critical to sort of be focused on on businesses that

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<v Speaker 1>have pricing power that can raise prices without a big

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<v Speaker 1>impact in terms of elasticity of demand. UM. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think look in the sex in half of this year,

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<v Speaker 1>comparisons are going to become more challenging. And I think

0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.440
<v Speaker 1>for the next three to four months the CPI readings

0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:09.280
<v Speaker 1>are going to be hot. So this is an issue

0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:11.480
<v Speaker 1>that will continue to be with us, and I think

0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.640
<v Speaker 1>the bestor is going to be focused on it. Nick.

0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:16.240
<v Speaker 1>Great to get some time with you. Really appreciate your insights.

0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:18.880
<v Speaker 1>Nick frielinghis in there is a managing director at Child

0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:22.280
<v Speaker 1>and Trust, where he's also a portfolio manager of equities.

0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:29.720
<v Speaker 1>Now we've been getting increasing headlines about the delay to

0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:32.880
<v Speaker 1>the return to work. Janet Elkin joins us right now, President,

0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:37.160
<v Speaker 1>chief executive officer Icon Medical Network out of Dallas, Texas.

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:42.200
<v Speaker 1>And Janet, is this getting worse? You know? As we speak,

0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:46.360
<v Speaker 1>it seemed like, for example, for vaccinated people, UM, this

0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:49.880
<v Speaker 1>pandemic was kind of over. But now a lot more

0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:55.640
<v Speaker 1>breakthrough cases are scaring employers. There are, and of course

0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:59.640
<v Speaker 1>although in most cases breakthrough cases are not are not

0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:04.240
<v Speaker 1>here if they're not going to send anyone to the hospital. Still, overall,

0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:06.720
<v Speaker 1>we've got a lot more people that are getting sick

0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:11.440
<v Speaker 1>that are unvaccinated and the hesitancy is obviously causing issues.

0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:14.040
<v Speaker 1>And then people are also concerned I think about going

0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:17.160
<v Speaker 1>back to the office if they have younger children at

0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:19.680
<v Speaker 1>home as well. So let's talk about what the environment

0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:22.280
<v Speaker 1>is like in hospitals. I saw a story earlier this

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.040
<v Speaker 1>week about the rising number of hospitals in Florida where

0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:28.439
<v Speaker 1>they're having serious staffing shortages. Something like thirteen percent of

0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:32.320
<v Speaker 1>facilities say they are short on vital personnel. Um is

0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 1>this a situation that's going to get worse in terms

0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.240
<v Speaker 1>of the people who are caring for those who are sick.

0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.320
<v Speaker 1>I am concerned about it. You've got, as we also

0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:44.720
<v Speaker 1>burn out, right, so many different kinds of healthcare workers

0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:48.400
<v Speaker 1>that either took early retirement or just left because the

0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:50.880
<v Speaker 1>burden was too difficult for them, I think emotionally as

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:54.400
<v Speaker 1>well as physically. But also realize that you've got so

0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:58.560
<v Speaker 1>many more patients. They're coming back in for things like

0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:02.000
<v Speaker 1>collective surgeries, so it would have been a busy time anyway,

0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>people that postpone things, and then also the long callers,

0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 1>So you've got all that going on along with the

0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:11.480
<v Speaker 1>rose the delta variant, and it's sadly a perfect dorm.

0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:15.679
<v Speaker 1>How much do we know about long haul covid um

0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:19.760
<v Speaker 1>It seems like one of those real concerns like chronic

0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.680
<v Speaker 1>lime disease that's just so hard to put your finger on. Well,

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:25.880
<v Speaker 1>you're right, and and actually we don't there's a lot

0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.160
<v Speaker 1>we don't know, right. But I will tell you this

0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 1>that the rise in demand that we've had for say,

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:37.400
<v Speaker 1>pulmonary physicians or cardiology because of what we're seeing in

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 1>some patients with heart and lung is really causing that

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of increase in demand um for us to be

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.600
<v Speaker 1>able to provide physicians. Can we talk about we don't

0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:51.200
<v Speaker 1>know yet. Yeah, there's the return to office on on

0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.440
<v Speaker 1>one hand, and then there's what people have to do

0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.320
<v Speaker 1>in order to return the office. And a lot of

0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 1>companies are mandating that their employees must be vaccinated in

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.160
<v Speaker 1>order to do so. And we've seen mandates like that

0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:03.120
<v Speaker 1>put in for health care workers as well here in

0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 1>New York State, where Matt and I are frontline medical

0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.320
<v Speaker 1>workers that work for state hospitals have to do that.

0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:13.240
<v Speaker 1>Is that the right policy? Well, I think it's a

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:16.200
<v Speaker 1>question of do you want people to be safe and

0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.240
<v Speaker 1>what can we do to mitigate this? And so if

0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:22.720
<v Speaker 1>you've got the idea of healthcare workers, the people that

0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:26.080
<v Speaker 1>are there to protect and take care of patients, if

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:28.560
<v Speaker 1>they have it, then it's a situation that you think,

0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:30.240
<v Speaker 1>how are we ever going to get out of this?

0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:33.080
<v Speaker 1>And I think that I think in most cases, the

0:15:33.080 --> 0:15:35.840
<v Speaker 1>majority of the healthcare workers that we deal with they

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 1>understand that. But you're right, it's accelerating across the country.

0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:43.400
<v Speaker 1>Literally every day, I'm getting more emails from clients to say,

0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:47.400
<v Speaker 1>all right now we're making a mandatory. Your physicians cannot

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:50.479
<v Speaker 1>your nurses cannot come back to work unless they're vaccinated.

0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:53.920
<v Speaker 1>By the way, Janet, is I uh notice a resident

0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 1>of uh sorry, a native of New York City, Right,

0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:00.880
<v Speaker 1>you're an Orange Man, and but you live in Dallas.

0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:03.560
<v Speaker 1>So I wonder if you're struck by you know, here

0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 1>in New York everyone is vaccinated and no one's really

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 1>fighting back against it or or hesitant. And I would

0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:14.560
<v Speaker 1>gather that in states like Florida and Texas, um, you

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:18.440
<v Speaker 1>have a lot more hesitancy. It's really incredible. On a

0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:21.320
<v Speaker 1>personal note, my dad, who was a New York resident,

0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:22.880
<v Speaker 1>died of the virus, and he would have been the

0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:26.440
<v Speaker 1>first in line had they had the vaccine um that

0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:29.400
<v Speaker 1>early on. But yes, In fact, it's interesting because two

0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:31.880
<v Speaker 1>of the three largest healthcare systems in the Dallas for

0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.600
<v Speaker 1>Warth area have put in mandatory vaccine requirements. The other one,

0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:39.440
<v Speaker 1>you too, Southwestern can't. Why can't they because the governor

0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 1>of Overset state has said you cannot mandate it, and

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.720
<v Speaker 1>they are a public entity. So it's interesting times here

0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:48.680
<v Speaker 1>on the governor of Florida has refused to declare a

0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:52.280
<v Speaker 1>state of emergency, and as a result, they're having difficulty

0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:57.080
<v Speaker 1>getting oxygen to the right places. There is enough oxygen there,

0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:00.840
<v Speaker 1>they just don't have the licensed drivers who are equipped

0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:04.720
<v Speaker 1>to carry oxygen. And uh, do you think that we

0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:09.880
<v Speaker 1>need more federal action here, Janet? I think we're going

0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:11.840
<v Speaker 1>to have to. I think that it's the only way

0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.479
<v Speaker 1>because think about when heartbreaking when you talk about oxygen, right,

0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:19.720
<v Speaker 1>but imagine in especially in rural areas where hospitals have

0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:22.000
<v Speaker 1>closed to begin with, it could take someone forty minutes

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.600
<v Speaker 1>to drive to a hospital. You've got to be able

0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:27.199
<v Speaker 1>to have access for people. And I don't know if

0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 1>we don't have more action, what's going to be able

0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.159
<v Speaker 1>to have. We can also hope that at the end

0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.080
<v Speaker 1>of the month, I believe that the FDA will finally

0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:38.800
<v Speaker 1>make this not emergency authorization anymore for the vaccine that

0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:42.040
<v Speaker 1>may help us as well with vaccine hasidency quick. We

0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.040
<v Speaker 1>just got twenty seconds here. Our healthcare workers paid enough

0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:47.080
<v Speaker 1>in the US. I'm normally in Germany and they are

0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:52.480
<v Speaker 1>definitely not there. I think in some cases, I think

0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:57.600
<v Speaker 1>that we are for physicians, for nurses. Overall, in we're

0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:00.439
<v Speaker 1>definitely in better shape than in some countries, but in

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.920
<v Speaker 1>some very high demand areas like medical assistance to still

0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.679
<v Speaker 1>paying them not much more than minimum wage. That's going

0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:08.840
<v Speaker 1>to change, has to I guess if you want to

0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:11.320
<v Speaker 1>get them in in the door. Janet, thanks so much,

0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:15.360
<v Speaker 1>UM for your time. Really sorry for your loss, and Um,

0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:18.760
<v Speaker 1>I think we all appreciate what you're doing to help

0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:20.680
<v Speaker 1>the rest of us in this pandemic. Jan Elkin is

0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:28.199
<v Speaker 1>chief executive officer of Icon Medical Network. Let's get over

0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:31.000
<v Speaker 1>to Brent Shooty right now. Brent overseas more than two

0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:35.080
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars in retail assets, joins us on the phone

0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:39.399
<v Speaker 1>from Milwaukee. And you know, before we get to the

0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:43.600
<v Speaker 1>finer points of finance, you know the FED policy issues

0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:47.399
<v Speaker 1>rates inflation. Et cetera. I just gotta ask about, you know,

0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:50.320
<v Speaker 1>Robin Hood and Meme stocks. What's your take on all

0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:53.399
<v Speaker 1>this because we saw that um, you know, disappointing I

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:57.359
<v Speaker 1>p O and then it doubled in the last two days. Yeah,

0:18:57.400 --> 0:18:59.000
<v Speaker 1>I think people focus too much on it. So it's

0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:01.199
<v Speaker 1>kind of interesting that it occurs. And certainly there's some

0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:04.000
<v Speaker 1>retail investors who are probably piling into these things and

0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:06.840
<v Speaker 1>pushing them back and forth. But hopefully from majority of

0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 1>people listening to this call or on your radio station,

0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 1>they'll focus on those finer points of finance that you

0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:13.600
<v Speaker 1>mentioned before, which I think are going to drive their

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:16.239
<v Speaker 1>perfectly a longer term. So I do think at some

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:18.560
<v Speaker 1>point some of these stocks are going to come back

0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:22.120
<v Speaker 1>to earth. Uh. And the question is when, probably not if,

0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:24.640
<v Speaker 1>And to me, if you have too much in those

0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:27.480
<v Speaker 1>you're going to probably not enjoy having that much of

0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:29.880
<v Speaker 1>them at some point in the future. We probably could

0:19:29.920 --> 0:19:31.840
<v Speaker 1>say a lot of that retail treading action is a

0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:35.280
<v Speaker 1>bit disconnected from the fundamentals. So let's talk about some

0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:37.880
<v Speaker 1>of those fundamentals when it comes to the FED. Obviously,

0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:40.360
<v Speaker 1>we have the jobs report tomorrow, and I'm wondering if

0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:43.199
<v Speaker 1>a strong jobs report is actually a bad thing for

0:19:43.240 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 1>this market. In that may that may mean a more

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:50.480
<v Speaker 1>hawkish FED possibly, but I think, you know, maybe that'll

0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:53.040
<v Speaker 1>be the reaction tomorrow initially, but I think people will

0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:54.920
<v Speaker 1>get their heads and see that it actually means that

0:19:55.000 --> 0:19:57.440
<v Speaker 1>stronger economic growth on the way and more wages are occurring,

0:19:57.520 --> 0:20:00.160
<v Speaker 1>and the economy is pushing forward, and so that will

0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:02.200
<v Speaker 1>be certainly a reaction post FED. And I suppose that

0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:04.200
<v Speaker 1>if it's really strong, it could be that reaction, because

0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:06.760
<v Speaker 1>it could be the more hawky FED. But in general

0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:09.440
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't trade that too much. I would think more

0:20:09.760 --> 0:20:12.439
<v Speaker 1>about what that means for the intermediate term, which is

0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.560
<v Speaker 1>stronger economic growth. Uh. And I do believe that inflation

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:16.960
<v Speaker 1>will fall back, which I think clear is one of

0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:20.720
<v Speaker 1>the fears about the FED. Nonetheless, we still see rates

0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:24.080
<v Speaker 1>at well the tenure at one nineteen right now. If

0:20:24.119 --> 0:20:27.000
<v Speaker 1>I take a look at the real yield, as I've

0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:30.960
<v Speaker 1>been doing a lot more lately, I'm looking at negative

0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:33.720
<v Speaker 1>hundred and thirteen, but we worked out at negative one

0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:40.080
<v Speaker 1>two yesterday. Why, um, with your degrees in finance and

0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:42.760
<v Speaker 1>business and your cf A, why why do we see

0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:47.040
<v Speaker 1>rates this low? Well, I mean, I think you still

0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:50.080
<v Speaker 1>have central banks around the world still buying a lot

0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:52.639
<v Speaker 1>of bonds, which obviously puts downward pressure on yields in

0:20:52.680 --> 0:20:54.520
<v Speaker 1>many cases. I think you also have a lot of

0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:56.400
<v Speaker 1>fears in the market. And so if you think about

0:20:56.400 --> 0:20:57.560
<v Speaker 1>it in the way we've thought about it over the

0:20:57.560 --> 0:20:59.639
<v Speaker 1>past few months, is that we got to June and

0:20:59.640 --> 0:21:01.560
<v Speaker 1>we know where we're we thought we might be, and

0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:04.360
<v Speaker 1>everything was pushing that direction. So COVID cases were coming down,

0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:07.080
<v Speaker 1>economic growth was finally here, and then we got there

0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:09.800
<v Speaker 1>and people said what's next. And so you have a

0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:11.199
<v Speaker 1>cross current of fears that I think are out there.

0:21:11.200 --> 0:21:13.919
<v Speaker 1>You have too much crowd who's worried about inflation and

0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:16.040
<v Speaker 1>thinks that may cause the Fed to do something. You

0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:18.160
<v Speaker 1>have the two little crowd who's worried about the delta

0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:20.280
<v Speaker 1>Iron was worried about China rolling over, was worried about

0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:22.639
<v Speaker 1>peak economic growth. And last, but not least, you have

0:21:22.720 --> 0:21:25.000
<v Speaker 1>the too expensive crowd, who thinks that stocks are too

0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:27.720
<v Speaker 1>expensive and therefore there are for a fall. And I

0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:31.120
<v Speaker 1>think the meeting place of all those three cross currents

0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:33.560
<v Speaker 1>was in the ten year Treasure, because that is still

0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:36.000
<v Speaker 1>the safety place for markets. And when you combine that

0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:37.760
<v Speaker 1>with what the bet is doing. I think that put

0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:40.760
<v Speaker 1>the downward pressure on. I do think that will alleviate

0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:42.960
<v Speaker 1>as you move towards the end of the year, and

0:21:43.040 --> 0:21:45.520
<v Speaker 1>some of those fears prove out to be um not

0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:48.480
<v Speaker 1>so scary as what people imagine they may be. Eventually,

0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:50.160
<v Speaker 1>I think we push higher in the stock market, which

0:21:50.200 --> 0:21:52.359
<v Speaker 1>probably takes some money back out of the bond market

0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:54.639
<v Speaker 1>towards the stock market. But within the stock market, I

0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:56.439
<v Speaker 1>feel like you're seeing those growth fears show up as

0:21:56.480 --> 0:21:58.800
<v Speaker 1>well in that Now the NASDAC one hundred is up

0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:01.600
<v Speaker 1>on the year to date basis, and the small caps

0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:03.720
<v Speaker 1>are lagging. They're only up twelve percent. And I know

0:22:03.800 --> 0:22:06.399
<v Speaker 1>you like the small caps. Why do you think that

0:22:06.440 --> 0:22:09.640
<v Speaker 1>play is going to come back into favor. Yeah, I mean,

0:22:09.680 --> 0:22:12.480
<v Speaker 1>I think that's also what's interesting is it used to

0:22:12.520 --> 0:22:14.720
<v Speaker 1>be when the when people will worry about growth, it

0:22:14.800 --> 0:22:16.800
<v Speaker 1>was stocks versus bonds in some way, shape or form

0:22:16.800 --> 0:22:19.280
<v Speaker 1>more aggressively. Think about last year. Now I just think

0:22:19.280 --> 0:22:22.679
<v Speaker 1>we're at it's it's reopening trade versus not reopening trade,

0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.800
<v Speaker 1>or peak growth trade versus more growth trade. To me,

0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:28.800
<v Speaker 1>I think economic growth remains strong. I don't think we're

0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:31.199
<v Speaker 1>at a peak, I think we're at a plateau. If

0:22:31.200 --> 0:22:32.760
<v Speaker 1>I take you back to the I s M this week,

0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:35.040
<v Speaker 1>think about this. You have a ton of new orders

0:22:35.080 --> 0:22:37.520
<v Speaker 1>coming in, you have huge backlocks of order. You have

0:22:37.560 --> 0:22:40.720
<v Speaker 1>to chew through those before growth slows, and even then

0:22:40.760 --> 0:22:43.240
<v Speaker 1>you still have an inventory rebuilt because customer inventories are

0:22:43.240 --> 0:22:45.399
<v Speaker 1>at all time lows. Do you think about the one

0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:48.280
<v Speaker 1>point six trillion the next US savings upon consumer balance sheets?

0:22:48.560 --> 0:22:50.879
<v Speaker 1>I don't think that peak growth yet. And so if

0:22:50.880 --> 0:22:53.200
<v Speaker 1>you're not a peak growth, if real inter negative as

0:22:53.240 --> 0:22:56.520
<v Speaker 1>was mentioned earlier by Matt, if valuations are cheaper, and

0:22:56.560 --> 0:22:59.960
<v Speaker 1>if people are over invested in tech stocks and memestock,

0:23:00.560 --> 0:23:02.520
<v Speaker 1>I think there's a transition that has to go back

0:23:02.560 --> 0:23:05.880
<v Speaker 1>to cychnicals, value and small caps, which typically are beneficial

0:23:06.240 --> 0:23:07.960
<v Speaker 1>in that type of environment that I just laid out.

0:23:08.080 --> 0:23:09.520
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's going to be the trade towards

0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:10.720
<v Speaker 1>the end of the year of some of these years.

0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:14.439
<v Speaker 1>Uh kind of Ebb, it's very bullish, brent Um. You

0:23:14.440 --> 0:23:17.960
<v Speaker 1>know the the major index, right, what do you think

0:23:18.000 --> 0:23:21.359
<v Speaker 1>for the SMP year end? Well, I think the SMP

0:23:21.480 --> 0:23:24.200
<v Speaker 1>probably does the least of all the U S Indussies,

0:23:24.240 --> 0:23:26.399
<v Speaker 1>and I think there's actually an opportunity in the Eurozone,

0:23:26.800 --> 0:23:29.119
<v Speaker 1>and so you know, I think we're past the easiest

0:23:29.119 --> 0:23:30.520
<v Speaker 1>stage of a lot of the trades that we talked

0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:33.360
<v Speaker 1>talked about. Um, certainly those were trades that we've put

0:23:33.359 --> 0:23:35.439
<v Speaker 1>on for over a year. And just for reference, we

0:23:35.480 --> 0:23:37.800
<v Speaker 1>did take our equity ratio down a bit in June

0:23:37.800 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 1>to reflect the fact that a lot of the games

0:23:39.600 --> 0:23:42.000
<v Speaker 1>have made. But we're still overweight equities and we still

0:23:42.000 --> 0:23:45.119
<v Speaker 1>think there's opportunities, but I think returns more moved towards

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:47.600
<v Speaker 1>the you know, the eight to ten return range, or

0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:49.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe even a bit lower on the larger indices. Was

0:23:50.040 --> 0:23:53.359
<v Speaker 1>still some opportunities in value small cap and even probably

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:55.960
<v Speaker 1>more so in the Eurozone, whether they're just emerging from

0:23:56.000 --> 0:23:58.879
<v Speaker 1>delta um where their earnings are growing rapidly. In fact,

0:23:59.040 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 1>this may surprise some. Well, they're finally gonna overtake their

0:24:01.640 --> 0:24:05.320
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and seven pre h GFC high, so let's

0:24:05.320 --> 0:24:07.600
<v Speaker 1>take them that long. Um, that was a cheap market

0:24:07.600 --> 0:24:08.920
<v Speaker 1>that you did, the catalyst, and I think it has

0:24:08.920 --> 0:24:11.040
<v Speaker 1>it right now, all right, Brent, great to get some

0:24:11.040 --> 0:24:12.760
<v Speaker 1>time with you. Thanks very much for your insight. Brent

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:17.720
<v Speaker 1>Shooty there, Chief investment Strategist, at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

0:24:17.880 --> 0:24:21.800
<v Speaker 1>Brent overseas two and twenty billion dollars in assets, and

0:24:21.840 --> 0:24:24.840
<v Speaker 1>he is bullish stocks, but as he said, more the

0:24:24.880 --> 0:24:29.320
<v Speaker 1>small caps, cyclicals and what's going on in Europe. Thanks

0:24:29.359 --> 0:24:32.800
<v Speaker 1>for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:36.600
<v Speaker 1>and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast

0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:40.160
<v Speaker 1>platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at

0:24:40.200 --> 0:24:44.000
<v Speaker 1>Matt Miller three. On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:46.879
<v Speaker 1>pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can always catch us

0:24:46.920 --> 0:24:48.359
<v Speaker 1>worldwide at Bloomberg Radiat