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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Friedman, matt fd Oracle. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet of up

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Speaker 1: to a thousand dollars with the promo code betty Pros

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Speaker 1: on first deposit. All right here with me to talk

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Speaker 1: NFL Week seventeen Best bets is Cleve Ta, proprietor of

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Speaker 1: Cleveanalytics dot Com and a contributor to the Hammer Betting Network.

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Speaker 1: Cleeve thanks for joining the show.

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Speaker 2: Hey man, I appreciate you having me on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So cleave Ta, what does that stand for?

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Speaker 3: Well, Cleve is, I'm from this I live in the

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Speaker 3: city of Cleveland, a big, big Cleveland sports fan, and

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Speaker 3: then Tha is just just some initials.

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Speaker 2: So it's funny.

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Speaker 3: When Twitter was created how many years ago, twelve, thirteen

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Speaker 3: years ago, when Eve been longer that fifteen years ago.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no one knew it would end up like this.

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Speaker 3: So I just needed a quick username, and my buddy

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Speaker 3: had same. They had Cleve and then he had his

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Speaker 3: real first name. So I just did that with my

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Speaker 3: initials and it's been kind of stuck ever since then.

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Speaker 3: I haven't changed it, so it was just kind of

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Speaker 3: on a whim, and so I've just I've stuck with it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so part of me figured it was for Cleveland,

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Speaker 1: which you know, if you go to to Twitter look

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Speaker 1: at Cleve's handle, you'll see Cleveland Browns I think in

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Speaker 1: the header there. So like that seemed rather obvious. But

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Speaker 1: part of me was also like thinking, okay, like if

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Speaker 1: you were to say CLV, like like if you were

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Speaker 1: to pronounce it, it might be Cleve, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean. So like I see this, see the L

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Speaker 1: and the V, and I always think, oh, that like

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Speaker 1: CLEVE is like it stands for closing line value, even

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Speaker 1: though like I knew it didn't, but just in my brain,

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Speaker 1: I've always made that association.

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Speaker 2: That's funny. I've never even thought about that.

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Speaker 3: But that's not it's not a bad thing, but a

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Speaker 3: lot of controversy with the CLV, right, so but yeah, no,

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Speaker 3: that's that's funny.

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Speaker 2: I never thought about it, but it could be.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, of course, so you actually at Cleve Analytics,

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Speaker 1: you have a piece I think looking at CLV, and

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Speaker 1: you know, so some people will talk about how CLV

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter. Some people think that obviously like closing line

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Speaker 1: value is the holy grail for people who aren't aware

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Speaker 1: of what closing line value is. It's the difference between

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Speaker 1: the line where you bet it and where the closing

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Speaker 1: line is. And so if you bet something at plus

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Speaker 1: three and it moves to plus one, then you got

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Speaker 1: two points of closing line value. And so that in

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Speaker 1: general would feel like a good thing if you were

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Speaker 1: if you were betting. Of course, if the if the

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Speaker 1: bat didn't hit, then you would be like, closing line

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Speaker 1: value doesn't matter where are you on the closing line

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Speaker 1: value spectrum in terms of mattering not mattering? What do

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Speaker 1: you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think on.

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Speaker 3: A kind of one off basis, it probably isn't a

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Speaker 3: huge deal. I mean, you'd like to get it, but

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Speaker 3: it doesn't really tell you much. But I think in

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Speaker 3: the long run, as you kind of accumulate to CLV,

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Speaker 3: it's a good I think it's a good way to

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Speaker 3: recognize whether you are you're you're a sharp better or

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Speaker 3: not in my opinion, over over the long run, because

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Speaker 3: if you're consistently beating a market that is supposedly efficient

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Speaker 3: or close to efficient, then you're doing something right. So

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Speaker 3: I think it's a good sign in that in that regard,

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Speaker 3: So I think if you look at it from a

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Speaker 3: long stretch, you want to get as much CLV as possible.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, from I mean, I think I was on

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Speaker 3: the Broncos minus two and a half last week. I

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Speaker 3: think it closed three three and a half. That a

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Speaker 3: smart bet, you know, I mean, like, so it doesn't

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Speaker 3: work out and I can I can just tell you

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Speaker 3: I do a better job probably of predicting where the

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Speaker 3: line will close, more so than whether it'll win or not.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Is that at the end of the day, I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure if that's more valuable, but but yeah, you want

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Speaker 3: to be ahead of the market as much as possible,

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Speaker 3: and especially when the sharper betters, with the influential betters

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Speaker 3: are the one shaping.

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Speaker 2: A lot of these lines.

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Speaker 3: You know, that means you're on the same side of

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Speaker 3: them and you have a better line than a lot

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Speaker 3: of them. So at the end of the day, you

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Speaker 3: want that obviously more often than not.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I was right there with you last week

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Speaker 1: on on Denver at uh you know, at that number,

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Speaker 1: and of course that did not that did not feel good. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: that went against us. But yeah, I mean closing line value.

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Speaker 1: I think it's as you said, I feel like I'm

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Speaker 1: better at predicting in some instances where the market will

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Speaker 1: go instead of where it should go, you know, where

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Speaker 1: the line should be, uh, and you know that that

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Speaker 1: ultimately does have some value there. How's the season gone

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Speaker 1: for you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it's been okay.

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Speaker 3: It's from sides perspective, I'm in kind of the lower

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Speaker 3: fifty percent range, which is fine. You know historically, you know,

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Speaker 3: whether it be my personal plays which are typically kind

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Speaker 3: of mid fifties, or you know, I've entered these Circle

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Speaker 3: Millions contests and the certain Westgate Super Contests for the

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Speaker 3: last decade, and I think I'm hitting I've hit sixty

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Speaker 3: percent plus like three the last four years, so this

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Speaker 3: is to me, this is a down year, but in general,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's a positive. And then I've you know,

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Speaker 3: really started to do a lot more with props this

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Speaker 3: year in the regular season. I typically had had kind

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Speaker 3: of waited more for the playoffs because you know, lines

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Speaker 3: are way more efficient and relentless games. But I started

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Speaker 3: to do a lot more from a prop perspective during

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Speaker 3: the season, and I'm I'm actually hitting sixty five percent

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Speaker 3: of props, which is crazy to me. And it's funny

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Speaker 3: because there's a lot of sharp I mean, there's sharper

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Speaker 3: money in the market these days, and there are times

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Speaker 3: where like I'll be on one side and I'll hear, hey,

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Speaker 3: you know, people will message me, hey, do you know

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Speaker 3: so and so, you know, real sharp prop better is

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Speaker 3: on the other side, and I'm like, okay, and I win,

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Speaker 3: you know, I'll win by a mile, and it's.

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Speaker 2: Like, okay, give myself a pat on the back.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, maybe I'm doing something different, but I've really, really,

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Speaker 3: I think, just honed in on a couple of props

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Speaker 3: per per week that really just find I just find good,

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Speaker 3: the best possible matchup in my opinion, because I don't

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Speaker 3: think that the opening lines are really that that sharp.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, you know these sharp openers are

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Speaker 3: never never really I mean that Taysom Hill number last

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Speaker 3: year was the last week was thirty four and a half.

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Speaker 3: And it's my that was like the dumbest I remember

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Speaker 3: I was messaging someone said, you know, have you seen

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Speaker 3: a taste some prop yet? And I said, it's go

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Speaker 3: watch it's gonna be in the low thirties and I

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Speaker 3: can't imagine you know, anyone not betting it, you know,

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Speaker 3: up to at least forty. And so it opened up

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Speaker 3: I think thirty four and a half and bet up

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Speaker 3: to I think it closed it like fifty two or

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Speaker 3: something crazy.

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Speaker 2: Right like that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and that was just the most obviously that's something

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Speaker 3: that you know, the books are not not paying attention

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Speaker 3: to one off Taysom Hill props, right, They're not putting

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Speaker 3: that much effort into it, So you know, you could

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Speaker 3: take advantage of those kind of those mispricings.

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Speaker 2: And so I've been able to.

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Speaker 3: Do that a lot and really have hit hit at

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Speaker 3: a really high rate and you know, spread around as

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Speaker 3: many books as I can, so I don't get limited.

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Speaker 2: So so far it's doing okay.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting that you you kind of got into

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Speaker 1: props after getting into sides and totals. The way I

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Speaker 1: got into betting was through fantasy, you know, like I

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Speaker 1: was really into fantasy, had a full time job in

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Speaker 1: fantasy sports, and then uh, you know, the company I

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Speaker 1: was working for got more into sports betting, and so

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Speaker 1: I started to get into player props that way, and

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Speaker 1: then from there moved in to sides and totals, and

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Speaker 1: I feel like I was a little bit too early

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Speaker 1: on the props because the prop market has become much

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Speaker 1: more liquid than it was when I was really getting

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Speaker 1: into it five years ago, and so I had success,

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Speaker 1: like quote unquote success then, but you know, like all

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Speaker 1: those accounts, they got limited very quickly, and I think

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Speaker 1: now accounts aren't quite as quick to get limited in

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Speaker 1: the prop market, and so it's it's just interesting the

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Speaker 1: way that people get into betting in the areas where

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Speaker 1: they gravitate towards Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And I will say, because I've been doing sides for

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Speaker 2: what twenty.

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Speaker 3: Five years probably at those point, since I was in college,

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Speaker 3: losing a lot of money when I was in my twenties,

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Speaker 3: until I figure things out, and I will say, under

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Speaker 3: I think the one area with the prop market that

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Speaker 3: I've understood not just the kind of pure matchup, but

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Speaker 3: I think you kind of have to marry understanding you know,

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Speaker 3: game flow obviously gamescript with the actual matchup, and that's

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Speaker 3: really important there. And I think some of the you know,

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Speaker 3: there are some guys that just do props or dfs

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Speaker 3: and that aren't good at understanding the sides, and so

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Speaker 3: they just say, oh, a team is, you know, seven

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Speaker 3: point favorite, So I'm going to gravitate towards a running

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Speaker 3: back right because game script.

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Speaker 2: But if you are, if you you.

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Speaker 3: Know, are successful betting sides, and I think I am

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Speaker 3: in general, Like if I think an underdog actually is

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Speaker 3: live at a at a seven as a seven point underdog,

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Speaker 3: I'm much more likely to take a look at those

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Speaker 3: running back markets than others would, So that a little bit.

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Speaker 3: So that creates a little bit of value on my end,

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Speaker 3: so and vice versa. So I think that does help.

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Speaker 3: It gives me a tiny little edge here and there,

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Speaker 3: just because a lot of the sharp prop guys don't

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Speaker 3: do sides, so they don't really are able to evaluate

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Speaker 3: it that way. So I can take advantage from that perspective.

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Speaker 3: So you know, it's a nice little marriage between the two.

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Speaker 3: And it's taken me time. And look, I used to

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Speaker 3: do kind of just prime time props and I've gone

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Speaker 3: through stretches. I mean Twitter probably four five years ago.

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Speaker 3: I remember I went through stretchers. Was given out like

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Speaker 3: a one prop per primetime games. I think I won

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Speaker 3: fifteen in a row at the point where like I

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Speaker 3: would just put up oh.

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Speaker 2: Like I think it was Sony Michelle was on New

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Speaker 2: England as a rookie and I put up a prop.

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Speaker 2: It was like thirty five at the time.

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Speaker 3: And I think within twenty minutes my buddy texted me goes,

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Speaker 3: that thing is like forty five right now, Like, how

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Speaker 3: the hell do you move it to that degree? I

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Speaker 3: don't know, Like you know, it was so ill liquid,

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Speaker 3: like you said just five years ago.

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Speaker 2: Now it's not to that. I don't know they gets

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Speaker 2: to that degree.

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Speaker 3: But you know, so I've had some success in the past,

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Speaker 3: just never really focused on it. Now I'm taking probably

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Speaker 3: a handful per Sunday, whereas maybe I would only do

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Speaker 3: primetime in the past.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, so great conversation there. We are recording

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Speaker 1: this on Thursday. This morning, I posted my projected spreads

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Speaker 1: for each game, and one line that caught my eye

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Speaker 1: was Cardinals plus three and a half at the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: And I'm looking at the odds paid now at betting Pros,

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Speaker 1: the number is still three and a half. Of course,

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Speaker 1: that number is three and a half at bet Gym,

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Speaker 1: where you can get that risk free bet of up

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Speaker 1: two thousand dollars with the promo code betting Pros. On

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Speaker 1: first deposit. All right, you know, there are some trends

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Speaker 1: that you can look at for this game. Cliff Kingsbury

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Speaker 1: on the road has historically been great underdog. He's been

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Speaker 1: good as a road dog sixteen, five and two against

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Speaker 1: the spread. And then Arthur Smith, like the Falcons have

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Speaker 1: no home field advantage. He's four and ten against the

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Speaker 1: spread at home, one in four against the spread as

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Speaker 1: a home favorite, And I'm looking at Desmond Ritter and

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Speaker 1: I think, like, Okay, sure the Falcons should be favored

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Speaker 1: in this matchup, but favored by more than a field

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Speaker 1: goal that just feels like it's too much. The Falcons

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Speaker 1: opened the year six and zero against the spread, three

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Speaker 1: and three on the money line. You know, they were

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Speaker 1: an overachieving cover machine to open the year. But since

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Speaker 1: then they are two and seven against the spread and

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Speaker 1: on the money line. The market has caught up to

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Speaker 1: the Falcons, and the Falcons have regressed as the season

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Speaker 1: has per regressed, especially on offense and especially since switching

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Speaker 1: to Desmond Ritter. In weeks one through six, they average

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Speaker 1: twenty four point three points per game, in weeks seven

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Speaker 1: through sixteen, eighteen point three points per game, and then

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Speaker 1: since they switched to Ritter thirteen and a half points

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Speaker 1: per game. Now, it's only two games, but the sample

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Speaker 1: has not been good. He's had the team has had

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Speaker 1: only four point seven yards per pass attempt with Ritter.

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Speaker 1: In weeks one through six, they had six point seven

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Speaker 1: yards per pass attempt. Like they've they've really regressed, especially

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Speaker 1: since they switched to Ritter and the Cardinals. They're a

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Speaker 1: bottom five team like in any one's power ratings, but

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Speaker 1: they have a clear edge with Colt McCoy at quarterback.

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Speaker 1: He's cleared the concussion protocol. He's playing this week. If

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Speaker 1: you look at what McCoy has done after the Browns era,

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Speaker 1: he's had six point four adjusted yards per attempt. In

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Speaker 1: his two years with the Cardinals, he's had six point

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Speaker 1: one adjusted yards per attempt. Like he's a competent veteran backup.

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Speaker 1: He's not great, but he's competent. And that's way more

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Speaker 1: than we can say for Ritter, who's been I think

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Speaker 1: a clear downgrade on Marcus Marioto Again. The Falcons, I

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Speaker 1: think they should be favored, but not buy more than

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Speaker 1: fill goal and they're one and two against this bread

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Speaker 1: as favorites this year, they're one ats victory as a

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Speaker 1: favorite was against the Bears in Week eleven when Justin

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Speaker 1: Fields suffered his shoulder injury. So not exactly the circumstances

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Speaker 1: that you would look for. So you know, Raw, I'm

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Speaker 1: proven rookie quarterback at home at a home field advantage

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Speaker 1: that doesn't really amount to all that much laying too

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Speaker 1: many points. I'm just looking at the Cardinals in this spot,

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Speaker 1: even though I think the Cardinals are really bad as

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Speaker 1: a football team. But I this projected at two point

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Cleeve, I think you're on this side with me.

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Speaker 1: Cardinals plus three and a half. What do you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I am. I actually took it yesterday three and

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Speaker 3: a half and I totally agree. I think this line

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Speaker 3: should be at three. I think I'll close at three.

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Speaker 2: We'll see what happens, but totally agree.

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Speaker 3: I mean the Colt McCoy from Trace mcsworley cult McCoy,

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Speaker 3: I mean the market, unless the market had a really

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Speaker 3: strong feeling that Colt McCoy's gonna play, maybe they did.

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Speaker 3: To go from it was only four to three and

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Speaker 3: a half. To me, is just that's way too That's

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Speaker 3: not enough, I mean to me, I mean mcsorley's fifty

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Speaker 3: a tho out of fifty two quarterbacks and EPA per play,

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Speaker 3: he's dead last and success rate. He's not an NFL quarterback. McCoy,

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Speaker 3: like you said, is competent. Now if you look at

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Speaker 3: his numbers this year, not as good from an EPA perspective,

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Speaker 3: but you have to consider two of his starts were

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Speaker 3: against San Francisco in New England New England. Well, New

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Speaker 3: England wasn't a start, but it was what one or

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Speaker 3: two plays in for Tyler.

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Speaker 2: That's a top two defenses in the NFL from an.

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Speaker 3: EBA perspective, So it's not really fair to judge him

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Speaker 3: on that. You're going up against an Atlanta defense, it's

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Speaker 3: last and success rate. They are last in pressure rate,

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Speaker 3: So a bad offensive line doesn't really need to worry about,

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Speaker 3: you know, a defense in Atlanta there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And the.

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Speaker 3: Only area that I would have been worried about was

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Speaker 3: potentially motivation for a team like Arizona. But you know

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Speaker 3: the fact that JJ Watt is announcing his retirement I

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Speaker 3: think helps here because you got to you got a

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Speaker 3: defense that really looks up to the guy. They're gonna

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Speaker 3: play hard for him. I don't think they're just gonna

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Speaker 3: totally quit in his final two games of his career.

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Speaker 2: I find that hard to believe.

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Speaker 3: Still got weapons on offense with DeAndre Hopkins and James

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Speaker 3: Connor and you know Hollywood Brown. So it's just, yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's hard for me to see a team, a bad

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Speaker 3: team like Atlanta with a rookie quarterback who's done nothing

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Speaker 3: laying over a field goal. I think this definitely closes

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Speaker 3: at three some with you here.

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Speaker 1: One game, you were looking at Texans minus four on

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Speaker 1: the road in Jacksonville. And I mean the Texans. I

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Speaker 1: mean I had them as the worst team in the

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Speaker 1: league a few weeks ago, and then they did well

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Speaker 1: against the Cowboys, almost beat the Cowboys. They played well

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Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, and then outright beat the Titans, and

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Speaker 1: then now here they are actually no, sorry, not on

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Speaker 1: the road. The Texans are at home hosting the Jags. Man,

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Speaker 1: what do you see here in this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I mean this, and this has doesn't really have anything

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Speaker 3: to do with the recent performance from the Texans. You know,

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Speaker 3: if you look at just pure power ratings, you would

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Speaker 3: not get to this number. And I took four to

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Speaker 3: a half yesterday. It's four right now, you would never

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Speaker 3: get to this number. This is more like any legitimate

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Speaker 3: power rate and gets you to six, maybe six and

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 2: You might get the seven.

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Speaker 3: But but there's there's a couple of things that play

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Speaker 3: here that that that that's why I don't use pure

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Speaker 3: power ratings because for one motivation and I know Doug

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Speaker 3: Peterson yesterday said that you know, they're gonna play all

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Speaker 3: their starters, but doesn't mean that they're not gonna sit

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Speaker 3: guys who maybe tweak something in the first half, or

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Speaker 3: you know, Trayvon Walker is questionable, didn't play last week.

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Speaker 3: Like maybe they hold them out, Uh, maybe they rotate

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Speaker 3: guys in and out. Like there's just a lot of

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Speaker 3: different variations of you know, not necessarily going pushing full force.

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Speaker 3: They have less than a ten percent chance of making

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Speaker 3: the wild card anyway, even if they win this game

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Speaker 3: and then lose next week. So and I'm sure they

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Speaker 3: are game planning for Tennessee. They're there, you know, maybe

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Speaker 3: they're doing a little bit on Houston, but they're they're

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Speaker 3: gonna put a lot of energy in the Look at

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Speaker 3: it here because it means so much so to me

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Speaker 3: that that right there just knocks.

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Speaker 2: Down some of the uh, you know, the gap in

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Speaker 2: the power ratings.

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Speaker 3: And then from a matchup perspective, Trevor Lawrence he has

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Speaker 3: been playing obviously, has been playing out of his mind lately.

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Speaker 3: He historically has really struggled against his Texans Lovey Smith defense,

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Speaker 3: this Cover two defense. There's a reason why they're zero

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Speaker 3: and three straight up and against the spread against the Texans.

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Speaker 3: In his career against Cover two, he's fortieth out of

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Speaker 3: forty four quarterbacks and completion percentage. He has one TD

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Speaker 3: six interceptions since the beginning of last season. And then

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Speaker 3: includes you know some games I know recently where you know,

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Speaker 3: maybe he's he's improved, and you can make the claim

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Speaker 3: that he's gotten better, he has not solved this defense.

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Speaker 3: So clearly there's something from that schematic perspective that you

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Speaker 3: know he has problems with. Now maybe you know, maybe

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Speaker 3: he solves some of that. Who knows, but I'm willing

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Speaker 3: to be okay, you know, backing the Texans, you know,

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Speaker 3: fourth fourth time facing Lawrence and potentially having his number.

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Speaker 3: And then you see, you know, his left tackle, Cam

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Speaker 3: Robinson is out Walker Little who's ninety eighth out of

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Speaker 3: one hundred ten tackles in PFF pass block grade is

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Speaker 3: going to start.

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Speaker 2: It's a huge down grade.

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Speaker 3: I mentioned Trayvon Walker may not play. They also lost

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Speaker 3: it was an underrated season ending injury to ed rusher

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Speaker 3: Dwayne Smoot, second on the team in pressure rate.

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Speaker 2: He's one of the top thirty pass rushers according to PFF.

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Speaker 2: It's a big loss there.

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Speaker 3: So you're potentially missing your two of your three best

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Speaker 3: defensive lineman. And this is not a good Jags defense

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Speaker 3: in general. I mean, this is a bottom five defense

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Speaker 3: by most metrics, especially.

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Speaker 2: Through the year.

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Speaker 3: So I just think that you know, from that perspective,

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Speaker 3: you look and you see Lawrence and the Jags are

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Speaker 3: zero to four against the spread in his career when

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Speaker 3: he's a favorite of three or more points, like, and

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Speaker 3: they've lost all four straight up by the way, Like,

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Speaker 3: I just it's hard for me to back a young

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Speaker 3: team like the Jags that might be looking ahead, that

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Speaker 3: might be sitting, you know, rotating some guys with you know,

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Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence, who struggles against this type of defense he

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Speaker 3: always has.

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Speaker 2: And you know, again, the Texans are feisty. They haven't quit.

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Speaker 2: So I'm okay taking any thing over field goal here.

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Speaker 1: Really interesting. I you know, I have this projected at four,

400
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Speaker 1: but I am very open to the idea that I

401
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Speaker 1: am not discounting the Jags enough because of two things

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Speaker 1: you mentioned. One Jacksonville looking ahead and preparing for that

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Speaker 1: matchup with the Titans in week eighteen, and then the

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Speaker 1: injuries you know, Kim Robinson a not insignificant injury there

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Speaker 1: that they're dealing with Treron Walker potentially not playing. And

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Speaker 1: then Smoot as you mentioned, who's out. So U yeah,

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Speaker 1: I can I can see it if I'm not betting it.

408
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Speaker 1: If I were about it, I would be on the Texans,

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Speaker 1: and I.

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Speaker 3: Will say, you know, some people say this maybe is

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Speaker 3: too much of a overreaction to what the Texans have

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Speaker 3: done lately, but I don't think it is.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you look earlier in this season, these

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Speaker 2: two teams played in Jacksonville.

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Speaker 3: The line closed only seven, and I wouldn't say I

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Speaker 3: mean Texans were by far dead last, and everyone's power

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Speaker 3: rating back then the Jags were, you know, started off

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Speaker 3: the season. If you remember, they started off the season

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Speaker 3: with some impressive wins. They lost close to to the Eagles,

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Speaker 3: so you know they were highly rated early on. It

421
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Speaker 3: was that middle season dip where they started to to.

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Speaker 2: Get a little bit of a setback.

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Speaker 3: So if you look at if you're minus seven at home,

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Speaker 3: and you do kind of the home and away, you know,

425
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Speaker 3: flip it, being minus four four and a half in

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville is actually kind of cheap. So, you know, like,

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Speaker 3: I don't think that there's any sort of pure line

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Speaker 3: value here that you were taking advantage of from a

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville perspective. I think that the line, you know, just

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Speaker 3: from a pure power rating perspective, and you know, isn't

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Speaker 3: that far off of where it should be.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I'm okay here. I just think, you know,

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Speaker 2: I just think that.

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Speaker 3: Maybe maybe Trevor Lawrence solves the cover two and I

435
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,920
Speaker 3: look like an idiot and the Texans get blown out.

436
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 2: But I'm okay taking a shot here on them.

437
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. And one more item her Jags playing their fourth

438
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 1: game out of five on the road, so uh, you know,

439
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: not you would think an overwhelming matchup, but the you know,

440
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 1: the road that tends to where after that many games

441
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 1: away from home? Here? All right, one one game I'm

442
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,679
Speaker 1: looking at here, Browns plus two at Commanders and let

443
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 1: me make sure that's the current line here. Yeah, it's

444
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 1: it's disgusting. It is two and a half at points

445
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 1: bet for people who are out there getting the best

446
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 1: of the number, but plus two Browns at the Commanders.

447
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 1: You know, Carson Wentz is you know, since the twenty

448
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,679
Speaker 1: seventeen knee injury, which I think really altered his career,

449
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 1: twenty six and thirty six against the spread, fourteen and

450
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,640
Speaker 1: twenty one against the spread as a favorite since then.

451
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: And this game to me really comes down to the

452
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 1: Browns pass defense against Carson Wentz and week swan through eleven,

453
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: the Browns defense was absolutely terrible. Key players were in

454
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 1: and out of the starting lineup based on injuries, and

455
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 1: you know, they allowed teams to score pretty much at will.

456
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 1: But since Week twelve, they've been pretty They've been pretty stout.

457
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 1: In weeks one through eleven, twenty six point nine points

458
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 1: allowed per game, since Week twelve, fourteen point eight points

459
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,640
Speaker 1: per game. In the first part of the season, they

460
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,919
Speaker 1: were number thirty one in defensive EPA. Since Week twelve,

461
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 1: number three in defensive EPA and especially strong against the pass,

462
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: number one in defensive dropback EPA. Now, to contextualize this,

463
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 1: those five recent games have come against Tom Brady who is,

464
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,879
Speaker 1: you know, not the Brady of previous seasons, Kyle Allen

465
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:32,440
Speaker 1: who is barely an NFL quarterback, Joe Burrow who obviously

466
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 1: is fantastic, but Tyler Huntley after him, and then Andy Dalton,

467
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 1: who is you know, on that borderline between starter and backup.

468
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 1: That's not a great cohort. So the the statistics there

469
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 1: for the Browns probably a little skewed, but it's not

470
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 1: as if Carson Wentz is any better than those those guys.

471
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 1: Like then that collective cohort of passers. He's been mediocre

472
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: this year six point three adjusted yards per attempt, and

473
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 1: that's the same mark that he's had since twenty twenty.

474
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 1: Six point three adjusted yards per attempt. Like, that's who

475
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 1: he is at this point in his career. He's a

476
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 1: mediocre passer going against a pretty good pass defense and

477
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson for the Browns, he has not been good

478
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 1: right since he returned, and that's even if you exclude

479
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,360
Speaker 1: last week's weather impacted game. He still has just six

480
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 1: point two adjusted yards per attempt since returning to action

481
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 1: in week thirteen. But we know who he is, Like,

482
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 1: he is better than Carson Wentz and his four years

483
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,880
Speaker 1: with the Texans, he had eight point six adjusted yards

484
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 1: per attempt. He's the better quarterback, uh, And I am

485
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 1: still expecting Whens to struggle against a rejuvenated pass defense.

486
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 1: So if I can have the better quarterback, probably the

487
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: better head coach, and I can get that less than

488
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 1: a field goal, I'm probably going to do it. So

489
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 1: Browns plus two, that's where I'm looking. Cleve. I think

490
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 1: you're also on this side of the game.

491
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, And just to be you know, just to be

492
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 3: you know, straightforward, like I'm not because I'm a Browns fan,

493
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,239
Speaker 3: will I will bet or I will stay away from

494
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 3: games I don't like. So this is not a bias play.

495
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm on the Browns as well. So the

496
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 3: only question is motivation. But there's no First of all,

497
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 3: there's no tanking going on because they don't have a

498
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: first round pick, and I think they want to play for,

499
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 3: you know, play for Deshaun Watson. They really, they really

500
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 3: want to see what they've got there. So I don't

501
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 3: think that they're going to Hey, they're not sitting guys

502
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: and be I think the team is actually going to play,

503
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 3: And that's hard to that's hard to judge anyway, Like

504
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 3: you really can't make these. I mean you're just you're

505
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 3: just guessing if you're making decision on motivation, you know,

506
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 3: when when a team is kind of out of it.

507
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 3: But I agree with everything you said. I mean, once

508
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 3: people forget how bad he was to start the year.

509
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 3: He was twenty ninth out of thirty three quarterbacks in

510
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 3: both EPA and success rate before he got hurt. And

511
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 3: that includes if you look at the pass defenses he

512
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 3: played the Bears, the Lions, the Jags, and the Titans.

513
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 2: That's three of the bottom seven in e p A.

514
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: From a past perspective, the Titans are twenty first, so

515
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 3: it's not like he was struggling against a bad competition.

516
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 3: So I mean, the Browns are better than I think

517
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,719
Speaker 3: all of those defenses anyway. And then when you exclude

518
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 3: garbage time, I mean the Commanders as a whole, their

519
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 3: offense was thirty first in the NFL in those six games.

520
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 3: I mean, they were gonna bench Wentz anyway, So him

521
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 3: being hurt was just kind of a convenient thing.

522
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 2: So they're pretty desperate.

523
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: Here, and it's hard for me to match a team

524
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 3: that really doesn't believe in any of their quarterbacks to

525
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 3: just all of a sudden be laying close to a

526
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 3: field goal against a competent team. And the Browns where

527
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,719
Speaker 3: if you look at all the advanced metrics, I mean,

528
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 3: they are a top twelve to fifteen team by most

529
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 3: every you know, advanced database out there. I think that

530
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:37,679
Speaker 3: some of what happened the last.

531
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,479
Speaker 2: Week is really skewing this. You know, it's funny.

532
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: You see all the discussion on Twitter again, absent all

533
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 3: the not you know, off the field stuff. We're not

534
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 3: going to discuss that with Deshaun Watson, just.

535
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 2: Purely his play.

536
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: I mean, the people are using pure data and numbers

537
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 3: from last week and the prior week in snow against

538
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 3: a top five defense in the Ravens to somehow discredit

539
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 3: the trade and talk about out At being a bust

540
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 3: like Russell Wilson. I mean, you're talking about those are

541
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 3: the worst weather conditions the NFL has maybe ever seen.

542
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 2: It's a win chip.

543
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 3: I mean we're talking about minus one degree or worse,

544
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 3: fifty mile an hour wins. The grass was impossible to

545
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 3: even run on. I mean Amari Cooper dropped a touchdown.

546
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 3: There's three drop touchdowns in that game for the season.

547
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson's had the highest drop rate of any quarterback

548
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 3: in the NFL. He really stunk against Houston. That was

549
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 3: one of the worst performances you'll see. He was a

550
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: lot better against Cincinnati and then he beat the Ravens again,

551
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 3: a top five defense.

552
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 2: He did, you know, kind of made the plays he

553
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 2: had to.

554
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 3: He played pretty well there and then last week, like

555
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 3: just impossible to compete in those conditions.

556
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 2: I mean, just to put that.

557
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 3: In perspective, Josh Allen in that Hurricane Weather game last year,

558
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 3: on that Monday night against New England, that was probably

559
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 3: the closest comparison from a win perspective. He was fifteen

560
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 3: of thirty for one hundred forty five yards in that game.

561
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 3: But no one says a word about that, right like that,

562
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 3: and that's a guy with a cannon for an arm,

563
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 3: Like that's just impossible to throw in. So I'll just

564
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 3: I think people are just making way too much of that. Personally,

565
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: when I watch the games, he's gotten a lot better.

566
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 3: He's a lot more comfortable than he was in that

567
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 3: first start. So you know, the only issue here is

568
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 3: you're gonna have to You're gonna have to run the

569
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 3: ball against a really good Washington run defense, and that's

570
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,119
Speaker 3: obviously not a good matchup for the Browns.

571
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 2: So it's gonna have to be Deshaun Watson who who

572
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 2: wins this game.

573
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 3: But I have faith that Carson Wentz is just not

574
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 3: the guy to consistently sustain drives. And I think if

575
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: you're getting points here, you got to you gotta take

576
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 3: it with the Browns, all right.

577
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 1: One game that you were looking at Colts at the Giants,

578
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: this was six, moved to five and a half at

579
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: most places, still six at bet MGM, And I guess

580
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: say I have value on the Colts as well. I

581
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: just projected at four and a half. I did bet

582
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 1: the Giants too soon. I bet him on Monday before

583
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: the Colts played on Monday Night Football. In retrospect, I

584
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 1: think I reached on that bet. But you know, after

585
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: adjusting power ratings everything, once the week was over, I'm

586
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 1: now on Colts at plus four and a half. I

587
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 1: still don't know if I would actually want to bet

588
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: them though. There's just something about this team that just

589
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: makes me, you know, I feel weak like you. I

590
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: don't have the will to bet when I have a

591
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 1: number that's on this team. But what do you seen

592
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 1: that gives you confidence in the Colts.

593
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 2: Yeah.

594
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: So this is the thing about the NFL that I

595
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 3: tell people all the time, Like the bets that make

596
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 3: you queasy, like you just mentioned, uncomfortable, those usually mean

597
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 3: that you're on the right side, because if it was

598
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 3: that easy, then everybody would win, right, Nobody wants to

599
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,400
Speaker 3: bet the Colts. This look ahead was three, by the way,

600
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 3: before that Monday Night debacle. So you're talking about a

601
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 3: full three point change and spread with no injuries to

602
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 3: the Colts off of one game like that. That's pretty egregious.

603
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 2: And anyone who does this, you know, I've.

604
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 3: Been doing it for twenty plus years, like that is

605
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 3: that's an overreaction.

606
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: It just clearly is.

607
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 3: And now it doesn't mean it's gonna win, but you're

608
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 3: you're getting the best number. You are taking advantage of

609
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 3: a bias market, a near term bias market that is

610
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 3: just scared to death to back the Colts. And that's

611
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 3: you've got to take those. For me, I got to

612
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 3: take that ten out of ten times, and if, like

613
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 3: I said, hopefully it hits at a higher rate than

614
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,719
Speaker 3: you know, fifty five sixty percent, But you know, I

615
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 3: just have to do it and really so a couple

616
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 3: of things of that. So, first of all, the defense

617
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 3: is still playing hard. I mean, they held a good

618
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 3: Chargers offense at twenty points. It wasn't as if they

619
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 3: got blown.

620
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 2: Out of the water by that offense.

621
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 3: So you know, they're they're keeping keeping them in games

622
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 3: or a top ten defense, you know, they I think

623
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 3: it was the Chargers had eight possessions that started in

624
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: their own territory. They only scored on three of those drives,

625
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 3: so it's not as if they just let the Chargers

626
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: march up and down the field. So I feel good

627
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 3: against you know, it's called the what they are. They're

628
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 3: a bad offense. They have no receiving and receiving corps.

629
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 3: It's pretty much Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones on the

630
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 3: Reid option, and so it's going to be a lower

631
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 3: scoring game. You're getting six points in a total that's

632
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 3: what thirty seven and a half thirty eight, So from

633
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 3: that perspective alone, you're getting value. And then look, Nick

634
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: Foles was awful last week, There's no doubt about it.

635
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: But you know one thing that you know, I think

636
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 3: that kind of was went a little bit unnoticed that

637
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 3: people didn't take an account because I know some sharp

638
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 3: money was on the Colts.

639
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: I think it closed three. If you look at what

640
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 2: some of the quotes.

641
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 3: That Nick Foles had midweek, he never even took first

642
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: team reps until I think Wednesday or Thursday. Yeah, and

643
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 3: when they made that announcement, he was running scout team.

644
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 3: So he had zero chemistry with any of those receivers.

645
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 3: And you if you watch that game, there are a

646
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 3: couple of plays where like Alec Pierce was running, was

647
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 3: running like a slant and he threw the other way.

648
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 3: He thought he was running an out like it was.

649
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,959
Speaker 3: It happened multiple times, so clearly he was rusty.

650
00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: He didn't have any chemistry.

651
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 3: Now you get another their full week of practice, he's

652
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 3: gonna look better.

653
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 2: He just is. That's as bad as it can look.

654
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 3: They're gonna be able. I mean, they can do some things.

655
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: They can run the ball on. This Giants defense is

656
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 3: one of the worst run defense in the NFL. I mean,

657
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: this is one of the bottom five EPA defenses in

658
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 3: the NFL and you're laying six. They were laying four

659
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 3: and a half to a bad Houston team at home about.

660
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 2: A month ago.

661
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 3: So you're telling me that Houston back in the in

662
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 3: mid November is a point and a half better than

663
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 3: this Colts team right now, I just I just can't

664
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 3: buy that, not with this defense, and you still got weapons,

665
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 3: you still got Michael Pittman, you still got peers, you

666
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 3: got tight ends that can play. You know, I just

667
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 3: think that it's just it's just an overreaction.

668
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 2: It's a veteran team. They should be able to you know,

669
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 2: they're not gonna quit. Now.

670
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 3: He's gonna have to contend with Wink Martindale blitz packages,

671
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 3: which is gonna gonna be tough. But you know one

672
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 3: thing I did look at this year, I have I

673
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 3: have a game log of all the EPA performances by

674
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 3: every team, and I went and looked at the ten

675
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 3: worst EPA performances a season. Because last week's Monday night

676
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 3: game against the Chargers was one of the worst we've

677
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 3: seen this year. If all you did was blindly back

678
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 3: those teams the next week, you'd go seven and three

679
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 3: against the spread. Because what happens is, again it's that

680
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 3: overreaction to.

681
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: One horrible week.

682
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 3: We saw it actually earlier in this year. The worst

683
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: offensive performance all season was this Colts team with Sam

684
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 3: Ellinger against the Patriots when they lost twenty six to three.

685
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: They hired Jeff Saturday. Nobody wants to back them. The

686
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 3: line was six in Las Vegas, and they went out

687
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 3: right like, it's not saying this is the exact same situation,

688
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 3: but it's not that much different and it's a much

689
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 3: you know, Vegas is much better than the Giants at

690
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: this point. So yeah, like all that being said, I

691
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 3: just think that it's an overreaction. If this line was

692
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 3: three and a half, yeah, I'm not gonna take the Colts,

693
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 3: but at six and a half, six or five and

694
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 3: a half, I'm fine having them, you know, with their

695
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 3: defense keep it close here.

696
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned the Raiders there. That is one team

697
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 1: I am willing to bet against at this point. And

698
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 1: forty nine ers minus ten on the road in Las Vegas,

699
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: that feels like, I mean, that's a big number. I

700
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: like this on Monday at minus five. I put it

701
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 1: in the Betting pros app. By the way, you can

702
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 1: sync up with sportsbooks. In the Betting pros app. You

703
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 1: can get free betting and advice and picks. You can

704
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: track different experts in your own bets. And you can

705
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: set alerts, so we monitor all the major sportsbooks. When

706
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: one of them has a line move that hits a

707
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: threshold you've set, you get an alert that tells you

708
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: where you can make the bet. You can download the

709
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 1: app today in the Apple or Google Placed or forty

710
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: nine ers minus ten. It's a big number, but I

711
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: have this projected at eleven point two five right now.

712
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: And Kyle Shanahan on the road, including the postseason, has

713
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: been pretty strong for his career, thirty and twenty against

714
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: the spread. Brock Perty, I mean, I'm not gonna overweight

715
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 1: the sample, but he's looked good in his you know,

716
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 1: three and a half four games as the primary quarterback

717
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: for the forty nine ers three to zero against the

718
00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 1: spread to open his career. And man, you know, with

719
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 1: the benching of Derek Carr, the Raiders are starting backup

720
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: quarterback Jared Siddam on plus eyed siddlm for your veteran.

721
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: He spent his entire career under head coach Josh McDaniels,

722
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: you know, first with the Patriots and then with the

723
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 1: Raiders this year, so he knows the system. He should

724
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 1: know the system very well. That said, there are a

725
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: lot of negatives. He's a forgotten former fourth rounder with

726
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: little NFL experience, no NFL starts. He has just sixty

727
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: one pass attempts in his career, and he has looked

728
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: awful in those sixty one pass attempts. He's converted that

729
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 1: into just three hundred and forty two yards, two touchdowns,

730
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: four interceptions. I believe three point three adjusted yards per

731
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: attempt is the mark that he has for his career,

732
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: which is like sub backup level type of mark, Like

733
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 1: that's what you would expect out of a rookie quarterback

734
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 1: who's a third stringer who's just thrown in on short preparation.

735
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 1: He also has a nine point zero percent sack rate.

736
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 1: He offers nothing as a runner, and then he's going

737
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: against if not the best defense in the league, top

738
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 1: three defense and the forty nine ers, number one in

739
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 1: EPA per play, number two in dropack EPA. Just a

740
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 1: terrible matchup. And regardless of whatever you think about Car,

741
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 1: I think Stidham is an unquestioned downgrade, a significant downgrade

742
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 1: from Car. So given the matchup, I just I think

743
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 1: he's drawing dead. And if this number is at ten,

744
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: I'm going to bet it because I think it should

745
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: be higher. Again, I think eleven is where this number

746
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: should be. Cleve, I'm going to sense that because you

747
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: are sharp and you don't mind taking bets that make

748
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 1: you feel a little bit queasy, you if you were

749
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 1: to be betting this, you might be on the raiders here.

750
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 1: But any thoughts on this game here? No?

751
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 3: Actually, you know, I did get a tip off. I

752
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 3: was driving home yesterday from the office around lunchtime. I

753
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 3: got a tip off that car was not going to

754
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 3: play and maybe some other and this the line was

755
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 3: still at five and a half.

756
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:03,439
Speaker 2: The total was in forty four and a half.

757
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 3: So I immediately grab both the under and the niners.

758
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 3: But yeah, so I got lucky there, I guess. But

759
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: at this point, I just laying double digits on the road,

760
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 3: no matter how good the.

761
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 2: Team is, is always a dicey proposition.

762
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 3: I mean, it looks so good on paper, but it's

763
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 3: it's just hard, especially lately this year, I think.

764
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not even sure if any double digit

765
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 2: favorites have covered on the road. I have to think

766
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:29,359
Speaker 2: about it. I know that.

767
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 3: The the Eagles could not against the Texans. There's a

768
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,439
Speaker 3: couple other ones that stand out it doesn't happen.

769
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 1: It hasn't happened. It hasn't happened that often.

770
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, so and the other So if the if the

771
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 3: Niners were this was mid season, the Niners are one

772
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 3: hundred percent motivated. I can understand it more at you know,

773
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 3: eleven or whatever.

774
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 2: But they don't.

775
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 3: I mean they're not They're trying, but they're not like

776
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 3: going full force. That's the only question is you know,

777
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 3: how motivated are you to really just you know, push

778
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 3: the pedal to the metal.

779
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 2: Well, I think what you need you're gonna.

780
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 3: Need if you lay double digits is some defensive turnovers,

781
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 3: which is obviously with this defense, very possible. But I

782
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 3: don't guess it's hard. Stidum isn't very good. But you know,

783
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 3: we see it all the time. This game could be

784
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 3: twenty seven to ten late and all the backups are

785
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 3: in and Sidham just you know, walks up and down

786
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 3: the field to get this to twenty seven seventeen and

787
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 3: then they cover right. So I personally would stay away.

788
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 3: I wouldn't touch either side at this point. But if

789
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,240
Speaker 3: you got in early like you did, then you're sitting

790
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 3: really pretty So it's a nice early wager. That's that's

791
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 3: real CLV, right.

792
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

793
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, So one one game you are touching the Jets

794
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 1: on the road at the Seahawks. Minus one and a

795
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 1: half is the number here with the Jets favored. And

796
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 1: you know this, I believe did this flip when the

797
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 1: news was released that Mike White was gonna play. I

798
00:36:58,520 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 1: don't remember where this opened.

799
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, it opened.

800
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 3: I think Seattle was minus one. It was around minus one. Yeah,

801
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,399
Speaker 3: to pick them, it was right around there.

802
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's flipped flipped through zero towards the Jets,

803
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: but still in that yeah, that pick them territory. My

804
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 1: projections lean slightly towards Seattle. But I haven't bet it.

805
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: I have no desire to bet them because I just

806
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 1: I know that there's a chance I haven't downgraded them

807
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: enough based on what we've seen recently out of Geno Smith,

808
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: uh and the return of Mike White, I think gives

809
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 1: gives the Jets an edge here. What do you see

810
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: in this matchup?

811
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Jets.

812
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 3: I'm okay laying anything under three, to be honest, and

813
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 3: once you get to kind of pick them to two

814
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 3: and a half, it's kind of all the same.

815
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 2: It's never hasn't really mattered. If you look back the last.

816
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 3: Two years, you know, you just just lay it doesn't

817
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 3: really it doesn't really make a difference. You know, the

818
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,720
Speaker 3: team that wins usually covers here. So I'm not worried about,

819
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 3: you know, if it flip flopping between one and two

820
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 3: or whatever.

821
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,720
Speaker 2: So I don't think the market has.

822
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 3: Fully asked the difference between Mike White and Zach Wilson.

823
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,919
Speaker 3: I think people were projecting a couple of weeks ago

824
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 3: that maybe it's a you know, point point and a half,

825
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 3: you know, upgrade than Mike White. But once we saw

826
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 3: White play and then we went back to Wilson and

827
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,919
Speaker 3: saw how much worse he was, I think he really

828
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 3: is really is a three point upgrade to me between

829
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 3: White and Wilson. And so I don't think that's being

830
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 3: fully documented here. I mean, look at since the beginning

831
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 3: of last season, White's twenty fourth out of fifty eight

832
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 3: quarterbacks in EPA, Wilson's fifty second out of fifty eight quarterbacks. Now, again,

833
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 3: the sample size is smaller, but Mike White had to

834
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 3: play in some tough conditions. I mean, he played Buffalo twice,

835
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 3: including once in snow. He played in a in a

836
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 3: driving rainstorm. Yeah, I was against a bad Bears defense.

837
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 3: But in his first starting at driving rainstorm, it's not

838
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 3: easy to do. He had to play in Minnesota. Yeah,

839
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: their defense isn't great, but that's a loud stadium, that's

840
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 3: a playoff team, that's not again, not an easy environment.

841
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 2: So he's been battle tested from that perspective.

842
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 3: Now he has to face Seattle defense, which is one

843
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 3: of the worst in the NFL, and they've gotten worse

844
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 3: and worse as the years year has gone on. I

845
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,399
Speaker 3: mean last week was the first time in the last

846
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 3: six weeks that their defense is held an opposing offense

847
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 3: below their season EPA average. So and in that game,

848
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 3: Casey was kind of barely even showing anything and they

849
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:22,359
Speaker 3: typically played down to competition, so and that.

850
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:23,760
Speaker 2: Game still ended in double digits.

851
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 3: Right, So, you know, this is not the Seattle defense

852
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 3: is just they're not playing well. And so I have

853
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 3: faith that Mike White's going to be able to, you know,

854
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 3: put some points on the board.

855
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 2: He's got all his weapons. Corey Davis is playing this week.

856
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 3: This you know, the Seattle defense is kind of dead

857
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 3: and and we look at defensively and I think that

858
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,959
Speaker 3: the team just plays better with Mike White.

859
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 2: To be honest, I just you could see it last week.

860
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 3: They were deflated when whenever Zach Wilson would just you know,

861
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 3: go three and out, and it's just they you could

862
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 3: tell they were not up for it.

863
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 2: I think they'll play better with Mike White.

864
00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 3: Defensively, by far, the Jets are the best unit on

865
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 3: the field. And if Tyler Lockett doesn't play again, and

866
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 3: I don't know if what you've seen, but I can't

867
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 3: imagine he plays. And if he does, he's gonna be

868
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 3: He's got like maybe he has a cast on his hand.

869
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 2: I'm not really sure. It doesn't seem like it's a

870
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 2: good idea for receiver.

871
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 3: They've got no options outside of DK Metcalf. I mean,

872
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 3: Marquis Goodwin was supposed to step up. I know some

873
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 3: guys are touting him as a DFS cheapy last week,

874
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 3: and he got shut out and he got hurt. He

875
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 3: heard his wrist during the game. And so you've got

876
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 3: two great corners. You've got two top ten corners in

877
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,399
Speaker 3: the NFL, and Saust Gardner and DJ Reid. So even

878
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 3: if you wanted to move Dk Metcalf all over the field,

879
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 3: like you've got really good cornerback on each side, and

880
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 3: then who does who does Geno go to? He just

881
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 3: doesn't have that option. The right tackle. Abraham Lucas is

882
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 3: a good rookie, he's questionable, he may not play. And

883
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 3: I just think that this defense is really gonna impact Gino,

884
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 3: who's's come back to earth lately. So you know, we've

885
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 3: seen Seattle face three other top five elite level defenses,

886
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 3: the Niners twice, and then in the opener they scored seventeen,

887
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 3: zero and thirteen points in those games.

888
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 2: Like when they've had to step up in competition, they

889
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:08,280
Speaker 2: haven't been able to do anything.

890
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 3: They only scored with ten points against Kansas City last week.

891
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 3: Like they're just not producing at a level that was

892
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 3: even close to the earlier of the year. So I

893
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 3: think a lot of maybe your numbers, or a lot

894
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 3: of people's numbers are maybe if you're equally waiting all

895
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 3: the games, you're probably gonna get to that, you know,

896
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 3: pick them or maybe Seattle minus one. But if you

897
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 3: wait the more recent performance a little bit more, and

898
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 3: then you take an account that Tyler Lockett may not

899
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 3: play or probably won't play, I think that you know

900
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 3: that gets you to maybe the Jets as a slight favorite,

901
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 3: So that's where I'm at.

902
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 2: I just think it's a much better.

903
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 3: Team, and I think that Mike White will will play

904
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 3: well here, So I do like the Jets here.

905
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm very open to the possibility that

906
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: I haven't downgraded the Seahawks fast enough to account for

907
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 1: what we've seen. And as you mentioned, yeah, Tyler Lockett

908
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 1: looks like he's going to be out. Mark he's Goodwin

909
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 1: dealing with the wrist injury. And Will Disley I believe,

910
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 1: is also out. Not as if he's a major contributor

911
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: in terms of like the overall production, but I mean

912
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 1: he he plays a not insignificant number of snaps each game,

913
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 1: So just another player there that they kind of depend on.

914
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 1: Who doesn't see Mike he's going to be there.

915
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 4: So Kenneth Walker didn't practice yesterday, by the way, right, Yeah, yeah,

916
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 4: So I mean, who knows what's going on with his ankle,

917
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 4: and he had a decent game last week, but he

918
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 4: hasn't done anything in the last month either, So it's

919
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 4: just this is a completely if you flip flopped, you know,

920
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 4: if if the last six weeks was the first six

921
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 4: weeks of the season. I mean, I mean the Jets

922
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 4: would probably be laying three and a half. I think

923
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 4: some of the early season numbers are getting baked in

924
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 4: here for Seattle and they're playing more like the kind

925
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 4: of the the priors coming into the year. Then they

926
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 4: you know, then they kind of overperformed early in the year.

927
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'll take the Jets on the road and

928
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 4: swallow it.

929
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. And for my fantasy article, Mike White is one

930
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 1: of the guys who is my favorites this week. He's

931
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 1: you know, great matchup as you mentioned there. Okay, one

932
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: one more game I want to quickly get your thoughts on,

933
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: uh not in the outline, but I mean Monday night football.

934
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 1: This it might not be the game of the year

935
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,479
Speaker 1: Bills at Bengals, but I mean this is it looks

936
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: like it's gonna be a great game. And uh, you

937
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 1: know Bengals one let me see here, uh one one

938
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. I believe this number was

939
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 1: two and a half in the look ahead market, which

940
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 1: shout out me. That's a that's where I bet it.

941
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 3: Uh.

942
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 1: And by the way, I should say the Bills, you know,

943
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: a lot of wide receivers there one of them is

944
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 1: Isaiah McKenzie. We're giving away a free signed Isaiah McKenzie

945
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bill's Many helmet from Prissy and Auction. If you

946
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: want a chance to win it, subscribe to the Betting

947
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:49,919
Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel right now. Comment below on the video.

948
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: We will announce a winner in a future episode. Do

949
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: you have any thoughts on this game? Bill's favored by

950
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 1: one on the Road Doman.

951
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 2: I think it's be a great game.

952
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 3: I think it'd be a great You could literally tease

953
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 3: either side if I mean, whoever, whoever is hits one and.

954
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 2: A half, just tease that side and call it a day.

955
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, so at this point, looking like the Bengals, if

956
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 3: you can get the that's that's my piece of advice.

957
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 3: You know, maybe pair them up, you know, with a

958
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 3: team like either the Steelers or you know.

959
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 2: Maybe I'm trying to think there was another.

960
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 3: The Browns is another good teaser leg if you go

961
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 3: Browns and then you know, wait for that one and.

962
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 2: A half to pop eventually hopefully with with the Bengals,

963
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 2: and you can do that. But yeah, straight ahead, I mean,

964
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 2: if I like, if I'm in a.

965
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 3: Pick on pool, I'll take the Bills just because I

966
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 3: think they're the better team and I just trust trust their.

967
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,479
Speaker 2: Defense a little bit more. But you know, it's hard.

968
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,719
Speaker 2: I mean, this this Bengals team. I will say.

969
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 3: You know, two weeks ago, I was actually on the

970
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 3: Bucks in since versus Cincinnati. They were blowing them out

971
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,919
Speaker 3: and just crazy flurry of I was actually at dinner.

972
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 3: I was on vacation with my family, and I was

973
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,359
Speaker 3: like feeling good about my pick at halftime, and then

974
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 3: I look at my phone. In every two minutes it's

975
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:04,720
Speaker 3: Bengals have the ball inside the bank and the Bucks territory.

976
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 3: I couldn't believe what was going on. I mean, that

977
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 3: was a flurry of random occurrences. I mean, nine times

978
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 3: out of ten, the Bucks probably win that game if

979
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 3: they don't go crazy with that. And then you know,

980
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 3: last week you Ramandre Stevenson is potentially going in for

981
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 3: a game winning touchdown. You know, the perception here is

982
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 3: probably a little bit different. You might get Buffalo at

983
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 3: two and a half to three, So you know, I think,

984
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 3: all things being equal, I would probably lean Buffalo straight up.

985
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 3: But you know, I think a Bengals teaser is probably

986
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 3: your best bet.

987
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:35,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Josh Allen on the road for his career

988
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 1: historically has been good against the spread. All right, Cleve,

989
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 1: thanks for joining us. Awesome stuff. Let the people know

990
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: where to find you on social and where to follow

991
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 1: your work.

992
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:48,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean my Twitter handles cleve ta and then

993
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 3: you can see my website on their Cleveanalytics dot com

994
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,399
Speaker 3: just kind of a I've got some free stuff up there,

995
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 3: but then also got a paywall for subscribers, just kind

996
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 3: of you know, I'll have a playoff package up there

997
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 3: where I write up every single game of the playoffs,

998
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 3: you know, side in total that I'm on a bunch

999
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:12,240
Speaker 3: of props through DFS analysis, kind of a one stop

1000
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,320
Speaker 3: shop if you will, for anyone.

1001
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 2: Who's looking for some content. So you know that's up

1002
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 2: there on the website. So I appreciate you having me on.

1003
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:22,879
Speaker 2: This is a good discussion, all right.

1004
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 1: He's cleeve Ta. I am Matthew Friedman at matt fe Oracle.

1005
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 1: Check out Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros for all of

1006
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 1: my work best bets, player props, fantasy favorites, player projections

1007
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 1: and rankings, and more. If you like the show, please

1008
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 1: rate and review on your favorite podcast app that is

1009
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: going to do it for this week seventeen Best Bets

1010
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: edition of the Betting Pros podcast. Thanks for tuning in,

1011
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 1: good luck, and see you next episode.