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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Ley.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Looking

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Speaker 1: Ahead to one. The outlook not getting better? The O

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Speaker 1: E c D. What's going on? The outlook from lawn Spoon,

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Speaker 1: the chief economists, joins us right now, no one's talked

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Speaker 1: to me about one, and why you've had to cut

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Speaker 1: that forecast. So, as you know, we're still in the

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Speaker 1: midst of the pandemic, and we're having a second wave

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Speaker 1: with many countries in the northern Hemisphere and as well

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Speaker 1: as you know, having the pursuit of the first wave

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Speaker 1: in some of the countries. So twenty twenty one is

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Speaker 1: still very much affected by what's happening now in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter. Now with the vaccines inside, there is much

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Speaker 1: hope and I think the outlook would be brighter. We

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Speaker 1: project recovering one. As you know, it will be a

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Speaker 1: little more than four percent that one being off to

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Speaker 1: have said the decision we have in twenty but it's

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Speaker 1: it's a big step towards a brighter future. Um, what

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Speaker 1: will be super important is that policies keep the support

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Speaker 1: on the health on the fiscal side so that we

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Speaker 1: can achieve better recovery once once the vaccine will have

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Speaker 1: been deployed. Are you concerned about how much damage we

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Speaker 1: do between now and then, Absolutely, we're very concerned, which

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Speaker 1: is why we have this overarching message of keeping up

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Speaker 1: the support if if we keep on, if we double

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Speaker 1: down on health policy packages, because you know, the vaccine

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Speaker 1: is not excuing us right now. We need to go

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Speaker 1: through the winter and the spring and we need to

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Speaker 1: deploy it. And firms have been affected by in some

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Speaker 1: sectors going out of business in oders, weaker demand. Some

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Speaker 1: people a large young of people have been protected by

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Speaker 1: job with tension schemes, but some of them are falling

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Speaker 1: through the crack. Firms balance sheet may be affected as well.

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Speaker 1: So we are saying with vaccines inside, you know, governments

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Speaker 1: we have vindicated in implementing these huge support to firms

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Speaker 1: and people and they must continue to do so. There

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Speaker 1: will be a time to reflect on the debt, but

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Speaker 1: that won't be one. So what kind of fiscal support

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Speaker 1: packages are you factoring in here? When you come up

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Speaker 1: with your four point growth projection for So what we

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Speaker 1: what we're working on is assuming that the support to

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Speaker 1: workers through furlow schem or job at tension scheme will

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Speaker 1: be maintained, especially in the sectors which are directly affected

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Speaker 1: by restrictions to mobility. UM, we're also incorporating the support

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Speaker 1: to firms, and you know that a number of countries

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Speaker 1: of easy countries have extended these too, about sometimes as

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Speaker 1: far as summer twenty twenty one. We also have considered

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Speaker 1: recovery plans which have been issued by a number of countries. UM.

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Speaker 1: What we are saying is, you know, with monetary policy

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Speaker 1: very accommodative and in the FOCE seeable way for the future,

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Speaker 1: the dead services of most city countries is actually lower

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Speaker 1: than what it was in twenty four So there is

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Speaker 1: space for using the fiscals tool in the strategic way

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Speaker 1: that I've just described throughout twenty twenty one. And until

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Speaker 1: the recovery has been more momentum or unemployment has started decreasing,

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Speaker 1: that is super important. Alternatively, and we have two scenarios

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Speaker 1: in our projections. UM, if there's not enough public health

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Speaker 1: or fiscal support, confidence may folter films failure may be bigger,

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Speaker 1: and we could be in a much much lower recovery

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Speaker 1: with the matches on the side for jobs and for firms, Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people have looked at stock markets globally,

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Speaker 1: looked at their incredible performance of late and said, look

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Speaker 1: at how well the economy is recovering, and yet this

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Speaker 1: dissonance between the economy and markets continues, at least when

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Speaker 1: we look at the economy in real time. Are you

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Speaker 1: concerned that people's emphasis on stock markets on risky asset

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Speaker 1: prices is a measure of economic health that that actually

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Speaker 1: hampers the recovery because it hampers the effort to get

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus into the hands of people who actually need it.

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Speaker 1: I'm not concerned about stock markets doing well, um. I

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Speaker 1: think they're forward looking. That's saying that the job of

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Speaker 1: people on the on the stock market, they include the

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Speaker 1: better outcome linked with the advances in public health and

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Speaker 1: also expectation of very strong monitary and fiscal support. What

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Speaker 1: I'm concerned about is in some instances there's a lack

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Speaker 1: of connection between the size of the fiscal stimulus and

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Speaker 1: the effect on the economy, and that's where fiscal public

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Speaker 1: spending are not spent wisely, which is why we're insisting

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Speaker 1: on the need to target the appropriate people, the viable firms.

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Speaker 1: Some countries do that very well, um as well as

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Speaker 1: all those that are left behind, and also on that's

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Speaker 1: now even more important, you know, invest in the economy

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Speaker 1: of tomorrow, education, digital and energy composition, not size Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: Before we let you go, you mentioned some countries are

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Speaker 1: doing it well. Who's doing it well? You know, there

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Speaker 1: are a number of countries which are doing well, especially

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Speaker 1: in Asia because they've addressed the virus more quickly. But

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Speaker 1: we're also seeing many countries doing much better than we

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Speaker 1: could have expected in this crisis because they've put in

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Speaker 1: place the necessary support to firms and to employment, and

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Speaker 1: I think they should continue. You know, they are talks

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Speaker 1: of softening the support or withdrawing it. We've seen that

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Speaker 1: in the financial crisis. We should learn the listens it's

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Speaker 1: not the right time to do this. Whether if we

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Speaker 1: put in place the good policies, if vaccine sound deployed

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Speaker 1: and fiscal support remains, we could be in an upsite

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Speaker 1: scenario with even faster recovery. I hope this is what

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Speaker 1: we hope, So we all hope. So Lawrencepoon, O we

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Speaker 1: c D Chief Economist, law It's always great to catch up.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. The O E c D kind of gets

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Speaker 1: one global growth forecast the four point two from the

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Speaker 1: five percent forecast they had back in September. Let's bringet

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Speaker 1: t ask you with skybish Capital co ce Io try

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Speaker 1: just help us reflect on the month that was and

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Speaker 1: how we reset for the month to come. Yes, so look,

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Speaker 1: you came into the sponsor's quite a few rotations, right.

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Speaker 1: You came in with markets are pricing in a blue

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Speaker 1: waves and then you did you got estimatebly wave obviously

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Speaker 1: had a Biden victory but certainly not a sentate flipping

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Speaker 1: at least yet and seats lost in the house. So

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Speaker 1: that cut some of the you know, cyclical names to

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Speaker 1: sell off a bit and tech the rally back. And

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Speaker 1: then of course we had the fantastic news which can

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Speaker 1: be understated enough about how effective these vaccines are and

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Speaker 1: what that means in terms of light at the end

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Speaker 1: of the tunnel. So you put that all together going

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Speaker 1: in where it had a VIX around forty at the

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Speaker 1: end of October and a lot of risk off price action,

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Speaker 1: and it had an extremely explosive month really across the

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Speaker 1: board for all assets, whether it was credit, cyclicals, value.

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Speaker 1: Really the only names that performed poorly were showing the

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Speaker 1: stay at home names that have done so well for

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Speaker 1: the rest of the for the earlier in the year.

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Speaker 1: So you know, as we look forward, you know clearly

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Speaker 1: we're starting at twenty three times four earnings again, just

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Speaker 1: like we were at the beating in September. Even after

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Speaker 1: this massive rally, equities are only up three and a

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Speaker 1: half to four the last three months. We all know

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Speaker 1: that games are gonna be much harder to come by,

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Speaker 1: and equity markets are all assets in general, um, but

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Speaker 1: it is unlikely unless we get that double dip, which

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Speaker 1: at least from the data we're looking at, it doesn't

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Speaker 1: look like it's coming just yet, that we have a

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Speaker 1: major dislocation prior to the bid An administration being sworn

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Speaker 1: in and hopefully getting you know, half a trillion dollars

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Speaker 1: or more in fiscal stimulus. What's the data that you're

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Speaker 1: looking at, Troy. Yeah, So look, I think if you

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Speaker 1: think of the stimulus that's still in the system, there's

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Speaker 1: two and a half trillion dollars more in commercial bank

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Speaker 1: deposit accounts than there was coming into this year. For instance,

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Speaker 1: you can look at the housing market, it's on fire.

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Speaker 1: Mortgage debt service is the lowest it's been over forty years.

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Speaker 1: You look at the over hundred billion dollars in death

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Speaker 1: it's been maid down by the consumer. You look at

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Speaker 1: the fact that wages and salaries have now gone above

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Speaker 1: where they were coming into the pandemic. Now. Off setting that,

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Speaker 1: of course, is that transfer payments have dropped from from

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimus going down. So look across the board and

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Speaker 1: when you see is that there's an enormous amount of

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Speaker 1: stimulus that has yet to be spent, okay, and that's

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Speaker 1: what's supporting consumption now even as UH enhanced unemployment drops off.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, we have created ten million jobs

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Speaker 1: where recaptured ten million plus jobs since the downturn. So

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Speaker 1: there is the ability to consume. To your point of manufacturing.

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Speaker 1: You've seen capetx pickup meeting fleet. Obviously, you've seen fiscal

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Speaker 1: spending from the federal government pickup meeting fleet. Trade is

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Speaker 1: not a net contributor, but those three cylinders are hitting

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Speaker 1: strong enough, we think to keep us out of a recession,

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Speaker 1: provided provided right that we do get another round of

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Speaker 1: at least McConnell style stimulus sometimes in February and March

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Speaker 1: if we don't get mcconos billion. Troy, Yeah, And it's

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Speaker 1: unfortunately to joke ground all these things. Is there's real

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Speaker 1: um you know, paying out there in the lower wage earns.

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Speaker 1: But somewhere between a half a trillion was McConnell style,

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Speaker 1: right and pulse he was two two and a half.

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Speaker 1: You won would think that Biden and McConn work together

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Speaker 1: very well over time. Remember they work together as being

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Speaker 1: er McConnell and Biden that really strug out the administrations

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Speaker 1: deal on two that as love it. Five hundred billion

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Speaker 1: is still two and a half percent of GDP um.

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Speaker 1: We were about three and a half PERCENTBLE or P

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Speaker 1: GDP at the end of Q three, a remarkable number.

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Speaker 1: Looks like we'll probably be around two percent LE or

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Speaker 1: P GDP at the end of this year. So two

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Speaker 1: and a half percent GDP is really all we need

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Speaker 1: to get back to the peak level by the end

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Speaker 1: of two two with the latest So let me stress

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Speaker 1: test the confidence just a little bit, Troy, this kind

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Speaker 1: of Vice President Mike Pence, he said, we strongly believe

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Speaker 1: the vaccine distribution process could begin the week of December fourteenth,

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Speaker 1: that was reportedly might pen speaking to governors in the

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Speaker 1: last twenty four hours. Then we heard from Governor Newsom

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Speaker 1: who had this to say, and I said it at

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Speaker 1: the top of the hour. If these trends continue, we're

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Speaker 1: going to have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic action.

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Speaker 1: How do you think this market with process, some form

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Speaker 1: of shouter in place order from Governor Newsom, something much

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Speaker 1: more strict than what we've seen already in the next

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Yes, So that would certainly cause a

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Speaker 1: short term pullback, not nothing meaningful, maybe one to right

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Speaker 1: and again it's back to starting level, right think at

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Speaker 1: the starting level markets now vix around twenty right, which

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Speaker 1: has been the post crisis, post m vaccine or sorry,

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Speaker 1: post pandemic crisis low um. We got up to forty

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Speaker 1: at the end of October, collapse back down uh multiples

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Speaker 1: at three x in more good news looking forward. Then

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Speaker 1: there's been in quite some time in terms of the economy,

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Speaker 1: in terms of what the fact that he needs to

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Speaker 1: do in terms of the vaccine news. If you get

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Speaker 1: a stay at home or like from the state as

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Speaker 1: large as California. That will take a little bit of enthusiasm,

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Speaker 1: and we may not have a strong December like we've

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Speaker 1: had typically in the past, but we don't think it's

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Speaker 1: enough to really cause a major dislocation. You know, it

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Speaker 1: could get as bad as September October, but but you know,

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Speaker 1: down six six and a half percent, you certainly isn't

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Speaker 1: the end of the world. Um so much again depends

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Speaker 1: upon the sack that the light at the end of

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Speaker 1: the tunnel. It's so much brighter because of the multiple

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Speaker 1: vaccine candidates which will finally get somebody's bombed out sectors

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Speaker 1: like what lodging. Uh, you know, airlines, cruise lines and

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Speaker 1: things that have really been the bottom leg of the

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Speaker 1: k to come back. Uh sometimes you know q th

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Speaker 1: nature Troy, It's great to catch up as always, you're

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Speaker 1: looking well. Best of the team. T Scottish Capital Code.

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Speaker 1: See I I'm got to see you, sir. I find

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Speaker 1: the conversation about the economy far more interesting. Ethan Harris

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Speaker 1: joins US now Bank of America Securities Head of Global

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Speaker 1: Economic Research. Ethan Greater to catch ups. Talk to me

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Speaker 1: about the difficulty in the months ahead and how much

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Speaker 1: better you expected to get in the year after. Well,

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Speaker 1: before I start there, I should point out that in

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Speaker 1: this world of remote access, I've got a gutter cleaning

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Speaker 1: crew that just arrived at my house, So it could

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Speaker 1: get interesting here in a minute. Um, we understand, that's fine,

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Speaker 1: you just went through it. At least I'm not showing

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Speaker 1: my legs off though. But anyways, um uh, there's there's

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Speaker 1: some kind of slow downcoming. I mean, we we know

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Speaker 1: that people have learned to live with the virus, they

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Speaker 1: figure out ways to get around it and continue to

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Speaker 1: do economic activities. But you know, things are we're at

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Speaker 1: almost worse than in the spring in terms of the caseload. Um.

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Speaker 1: The shutdowns we've seen at the local level have been

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Speaker 1: pretty limited, but they're going to be persistent because the

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Speaker 1: number of cases isn't going to go away quickly, given

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Speaker 1: all the holidays coming up and the kind of pandemic

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Speaker 1: fatigue we have out there. So we're looking for growth

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Speaker 1: to slow to about one percent in the first quarter

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Speaker 1: is kind of the last vestige of this COVID crisis,

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Speaker 1: and then from there, the vaccine story kicks in, the

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Speaker 1: fiscal policy story kicks in, and we're much more optimistic, Ethan.

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Speaker 1: We're looking at the economic day to come through worldwide,

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Speaker 1: not just in the United States. We've had some soft

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Speaker 1: jobless claims prints over the last couple of weeks, but worldwide,

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Speaker 1: the p m I s have been terrific, particularly in Asia.

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Speaker 1: You expect that as you come off a low base,

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Speaker 1: that diffusion in the cities. You've written about this earlier

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Speaker 1: this year, Ethan. My question though, is how difficult is

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Speaker 1: it to draw a distinction between an infantry rebuild off

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Speaker 1: the back of an unprecedented shock that is happening on

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Speaker 1: a synchronized basis worldwide right now, and a robust early

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Speaker 1: stage recovery. Can you make that distinction? Ethan? Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I think that that what we're seeing now is

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Speaker 1: what you'd expect for p m I is to be

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Speaker 1: if you're growing at say five UM and that's where

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Speaker 1: we are right now. Um, you know, this isn't a surprise.

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Speaker 1: It's a little bit strange that took this long for

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Speaker 1: the p m I s to get to this level.

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Speaker 1: I mean, where were they back in the summer when

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Speaker 1: we you know, second quarter US GDP growth was thirt

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Speaker 1: and the p m I s were like at fifty

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Speaker 1: five or something that's way too low. So there's something

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Speaker 1: a little bit strange about the way they they've kind

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Speaker 1: of been lagging behind. But you know, readings in the

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Speaker 1: in the high fifties are you know, a normal, healthy recovery.

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Speaker 1: I do think they're going to cool off a little

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Speaker 1: bit in the next couple of months, just because there's

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Speaker 1: some real slowing going on, uh in Europe, US and

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Speaker 1: much of the northern hemisphere. But um, you know, I

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Speaker 1: don't you know, I don't feel this is an unusual

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Speaker 1: thing to have numbers like this. Meanwhile, though, we are

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Speaker 1: getting this incredible divergence between the manufacturing side of the

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Speaker 1: economy and the service side of the economy, which has

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Speaker 1: really led to an increased number of jobless claims. Are

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Speaker 1: you seeing the likelihood increase of a negative print on

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Speaker 1: this Friday's jobs report. Well, we don't expect a negative print,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, the job market is going to be

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Speaker 1: one of the sectors that slows a lot here in

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Speaker 1: the next few months. Because while you can when you

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Speaker 1: do restrictions and activities, you can certainly continue retail sales,

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Speaker 1: you can have online spending, you can do uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: you find find ways around the restrictions and shop and

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Speaker 1: keep shopping. But what you can't prevent is a very

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Speaker 1: weak holiday hiring season because brick and mortar is the

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Speaker 1: dominant source of jobs, and so some slowing in the

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Speaker 1: job markets inevitable. Uh. You know, we're still seeing uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, a couple hundred thousand gain in pay rolls.

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Speaker 1: But but you know, we we could get to flat

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Speaker 1: numbers by the time we get into the first quarter.

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Speaker 1: So when people talk about scarring, what numbers do you

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Speaker 1: have to see before you start getting worried about a

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Speaker 1: double deprocession. Well, I think that if we dropped to

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Speaker 1: the kind of growth numbers we have and there's no

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Speaker 1: fiscal package, then you you worry that you're going to

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Speaker 1: dip into egg of territory before the vaccine kicks in.

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Speaker 1: I mean, when you talk to people about the vaccine,

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Speaker 1: it's important to keep in minds you don't need herd immunity.

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Speaker 1: You don't need everyone immunized to benefit the economy. You

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Speaker 1: need to have vulnerable populations immunize to the point where

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Speaker 1: everyone feels comfortable that they're taking low risk, that this

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Speaker 1: is something you can live with at the um. And

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Speaker 1: so there's an increased engagement that comes with vaccinating vulnerable people. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and the essential workers. Uh. You don't need to wait

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Speaker 1: for the herd immunity to help the economy. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean we're gonna we're gonna have a bit of

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Speaker 1: a dead spot here, you know, as we go into

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Speaker 1: the first quarter, and the economy does need um fiscal stimulus.

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Speaker 1: I mean, local governments need help, the small business need

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Speaker 1: to help. Unemployments need help. You know, the benefits keep diminishing,

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Speaker 1: so uh, it's very important they get a deal done.

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Speaker 1: We do think they will. We think that's the probably

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Speaker 1: the only serious legislation we get in the next two

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Speaker 1: years will be the stimulus package out of the gate,

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Speaker 1: because we really need it. Um, if we get split government,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be solid gridlock once we get past this

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Speaker 1: initial kind of emergency funding situation. I don't unless it's

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Speaker 1: somehow managed to pull the Georgia. Uh, you know, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have rock solid gridlock. I think Ethan grit to

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Speaker 1: catch ups. Always appreciate your inside good fun as always,

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Speaker 1: Ethan Harris that of Banks America Securities. Right now, let's

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Speaker 1: turn to the issue at hand, which is still the pandemic.

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Speaker 1: It is still twenty and the question is how quickly

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Speaker 1: can we unrull or roll out these vaccinations in order

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Speaker 1: to stop the pandemic and fulfill some of the hopium

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Speaker 1: that we continue to see in markets joining us now

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Speaker 1: Dr Jody Guest Emery University roll In School of Public Health,

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Speaker 1: Department of Epidemiology, Vice Chair and Research Professor, Doctor Guest,

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Speaker 1: let's just start with what the road looks like ahead

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Speaker 1: to get a critical mass of people vaccinated. Good morning. Well,

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Speaker 1: we certainly UM need a big uptake in the vaccine,

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Speaker 1: which means we really need a lot of trust that

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Speaker 1: the science has been great behind it and that this

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Speaker 1: is a safe and effective vaccine that we want to

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Speaker 1: make sure we get to everyone UM across the globe. Alright.

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Speaker 1: So the reason why I ask this is because a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are saying, well, we've got a vaccine,

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Speaker 1: so you can fast forward to a better time ahead

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Speaker 1: and price that in. But there is a question of

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Speaker 1: how long it will take and how bad the pandemic

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Speaker 1: could get before then? Can you talk about that process?

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Speaker 1: In other words, that we're heading into the winter season,

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Speaker 1: people are getting complacent, We're seeing virus numbers go to

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Speaker 1: record highs, and we still are a ways away to

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Speaker 1: that critical mass. Absolutely, so we've got a light at

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Speaker 1: the end of our tunnel, but we are not there yet,

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Speaker 1: and so we need everyone to continue to do what

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Speaker 1: we've been asking, which is stay socially distanced, where their

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Speaker 1: masks um you know, keep their gathering small, which is hard.

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Speaker 1: We have a lot of pandemics fatigue at this point

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Speaker 1: in time, but we are closed. But we must continue

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Speaker 1: to do all of those incredibly important prevention measures to

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Speaker 1: stay to keep our numbers down. As you said, they

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Speaker 1: are skyrocketing across the United States and across the world

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Speaker 1: at numbers that we've not even seen up until now.

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Speaker 1: So we should get a vaccine first. I mean, guess

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Speaker 1: we're going to have older individuals and perhaps nursing homes

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Speaker 1: and healthcare professionals who next. I think we'll see a

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Speaker 1: lot of frontline workers. UM, get the offered the vaccine next. Today, actually,

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Speaker 1: the CDC is meeting and having a panel to discuss

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Speaker 1: what the priorities will be and how those vaccines will

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Speaker 1: be rolled out. Once you have a vaccine that has

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Speaker 1: FDA approval, you have to go into a vaccination process

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Speaker 1: of vaccine but itself doesn't work until we get it

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Speaker 1: to people, and so that this vision will start today

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Speaker 1: to really put together a robust plan of how the

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Speaker 1: vaccines gets rolled out. What do you think is the

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Speaker 1: most effective public relations effort to get people to have

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Speaker 1: confidence in the vaccine to go seek them out, because

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Speaker 1: that has been one of the biggest concerns. Absolutely so,

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Speaker 1: I do believe that the fact that the FDA, which

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Speaker 1: is going to start reviewing their data from Fiser and

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Speaker 1: Maderna coming up um, they will be doing those those

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Speaker 1: data reviews online and anyone could watch them. I think

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Speaker 1: that that is an incredibly important offer for us to

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Speaker 1: be able to all watch that. Additionally, the CDC review

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Speaker 1: today about who's going to get the vaccine and the

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Speaker 1: order in which they will get it will also be

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Speaker 1: available for anyone to watch. And that transparency is really

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Speaker 1: important because these vaccines have been um studied very quickly,

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Speaker 1: but it does not mean the science has been too quick,

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Speaker 1: and we want to make sure that everyone gets a

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Speaker 1: chance to see that. Dr guess I want to talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit about morale among nurses among doctors. I've

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Speaker 1: read a number of stories and heard from people that

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Speaker 1: it's exhausting, it's emotionally draining, it's traumatic. They went through

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Speaker 1: the first wave, I know in New York City it

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Speaker 1: was really traumatic for them, and now they're seeing numbers

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Speaker 1: creep up again, and we're seeing that across the nation.

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Speaker 1: How does that factor into what we are seeing now

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Speaker 1: the structure of our health care system and how stretched

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Speaker 1: it's getting. Well. I think as we think of supply

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Speaker 1: chain that we've talked about a lot with COVID nineteen,

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Speaker 1: where we were concerned about having enough gloves and maths

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Speaker 1: and in hospital bed, one of the things we've not

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Speaker 1: spent enough time talking about is enough employees, enough clinicians

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Speaker 1: to care for all of these patients. People are working

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Speaker 1: so many days in a row without days off, and

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Speaker 1: that's exhausting. And when you see incredibly high death rates,

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Speaker 1: that is takes an emotional toll that we can't underdescribe. UM,

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Speaker 1: we need to make sure we're caring for them and UM.

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Speaker 1: A lot of clinicians I've talked to are are stressed

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Speaker 1: about the number of patients that they're caring for, but

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Speaker 1: also the lack of attention to the prevention messages that

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Speaker 1: we are consistently putting out there. And so it really

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Speaker 1: isn't as an honor to all of the people who've

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Speaker 1: been working so diligently to care for those who are sick,

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Speaker 1: we need to make sure we continue to wear our masks.

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Speaker 1: I ask everybody this just because I have a diligence

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Speaker 1: to my children at home who ask every day when

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Speaker 1: is this going to be over? When is this going

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Speaker 1: to be over? Dr. Guests, Well, I wish I knew that.

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Speaker 1: I wish I had a magic ball that would tell

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Speaker 1: us that. Um. What I can say is, um, we

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Speaker 1: are getting one of the best modalities to help us

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Speaker 1: with us with the vaccines coming up, but it does

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Speaker 1: not mean that we will be without our masks the

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Speaker 1: minute people start getting best vaccinated. We still have a

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Speaker 1: lot of work to do and we need to reach

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Speaker 1: a certain threshold of folks who have been vaccinated before

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Speaker 1: we are going to want to change those additional messages

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Speaker 1: of social distancing, masking and hand washing. Thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: coming good, I hope so from your lips to all

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Speaker 1: of our ears. Dr Jody Guest of Emery University, we

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Speaker 1: really appreciate you being with us. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio