1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. We're starting with light 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: fair you know, yeah, but lightly fried, well probably deeply fried, 3 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:18,080 Speaker 1: lightly breaded, deeply fried. 4 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 2: All right, Hello and welcome to the Money Stuff Podcast. 5 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 2: You're a weekly podcast where we talk about stuff related 6 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 2: to money. I'm Matt Levine and I write the Money 7 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 2: Stuff column for Bloomberg Opinion. 8 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: And I'm Katie Greifeld, a reporter for Bloomberg News and 9 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:36,480 Speaker 1: an anchor for Bloomberg Television. 10 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: What do we got today, Katy? 11 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: We're going to talk about shrimp and lobsters, all the 12 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 1: fair out of the sea. We're going to talk about 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: fat fingers and why City Group keeps having problems with those, 14 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 1: and then we're going to talk about brains. 15 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: It's going to be a good one. 16 00:00:51,120 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, Red Lobster, did they really shrimp themselves to death? 17 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:02,319 Speaker 2: No? Maybe a little bit. 18 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: But isn't it fun to pretend? 19 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: It's more fun to pretend than almost any other thing 20 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 2: I've pretended about. So Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy over 21 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 2: the weekend. And why did they go bankrupt? Well, you know, 22 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 2: they like had a series of business mistakes. That's some 23 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 2: onerous leases that they got in connection with the leverage 24 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 2: via changing consumer tastes. Inflation is rough and fast, casual. 25 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:25,199 Speaker 1: Dining, those are all boring. 26 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. No, the real answer is that they are. Their 27 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 2: equity owner is a company that is also one of 28 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 2: their big suppliers. It's a seafood company called Tai Union, 29 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: and Red Lobster under its former CEO, embarked on an unlimited, 30 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: endless shrimp promotion where for twenty dollars you can get 31 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: all the shrimp you wanted, all the time. And in 32 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 2: the bankruptcy papers, the new CEO kind of like works 33 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 2: on behalf of the creditors sort of insinuates that there 34 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 2: is a scheme to pump shrimp through Red Lobster to 35 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 2: make money for Tie Union at the expense of Red Lobster. 36 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: To just line the pockets of Thai Union. Well, it 37 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: did turn into they were the only shrimp supplier for 38 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: Red Lobster, didn't They start out with three and then 39 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: it whittled down to just Tai Union. 40 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 2: It's not exactly clear, but yeah, the suggestion is that 41 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 2: like there were some of the regularities in the procurement 42 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 2: process where they got rid of some of their other 43 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 2: shrimp suppliers and ended up sending more and more money 44 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 2: directly to Taie Union for more and more shrimp, and. 45 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: Thai Union of course disputes that passionately. They say that 46 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: all of those issues concerning the company and its relationship 47 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 1: to Red Lobster, you know, are basically false. But it 48 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 1: is interesting that this started out as a limited promotion 49 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 1: and then I think it was May twenty twenty three, 50 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: actually it turned into a permanent promotion, this endless shrimp fiasco. 51 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 2: It just makes sense. Yeah, But if you own a 52 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 2: company that is going under, and by like February this year, 53 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 2: Thai Union is saying the value of their equity at zero. 54 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 2: You own a company that's going under, yeah, you get 55 00:02:58,440 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 2: as much money as you can out of it, and 56 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 2: you also sell that company shrimp. The goal is to 57 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:05,359 Speaker 2: sell them as many shrimp as possible. 58 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: They did end up losing eleven million dollars on it, 59 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 1: which is not huge in. 60 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:11,839 Speaker 2: The ground that gets you billion dollars. 61 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: There's a lot of money to lose on shrimp, though, 62 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I certainly haven't come anywhere close to that. 63 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: It is a lot of money to lose on shrimp. 64 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 2: Red Lives the bankruptcy file has a lot of like 65 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 2: good stats, including they're like twenty percent of the total 66 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 2: market for lobster tales like in the world. So yeah, 67 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 2: I mean, like, if anyone is going to lose eleven 68 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 2: million dollars on shrimp, it's definitely red lobster. But that's 69 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: probably not enough to drive them into bankruptcy, but it 70 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 2: is enough to be very very funny in bankruptcy. 71 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: It made for some amazing headlines, some amazing thought pieces, 72 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: some amazing money stuff columns. Let's talk about the leases though, 73 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: because a lot of people are pointing to the leases at. 74 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 2: Sure sure, Like the boring answer is that, like there's 75 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 2: a sort of classic private equity stripping story where it's like, 76 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 2: you know, they were owned it on point by General Mills. 77 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 2: They're on a Darden restaurant company. They were sold in 78 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 2: a leveraged buyout where basically the buyer to finance the deal, 79 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 2: sold a lot of their locations and leased them back, 80 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 2: and so they entered into a lot of like expensive leases, 81 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 2: and when hard times came, they didn't own their own 82 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 2: real estate, and so they had a little bit less 83 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 2: financial flexibility because that all these lease payments, and so 84 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 2: that was also hard on them. I'm always like skeptical 85 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 2: of these explanations because it's like that would work that 86 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 2: fine had business kept improving, right, and it worked out 87 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 2: poorly because business was declining. Like it adds leverage, right, 88 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 2: it lowers your margin for error. But like it seems 89 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 2: like the explanation here is not like Red Lobster was 90 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 2: doing great and then like financial shenanigans destroyed it. The 91 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 2: story is like Red Lobster is not doing that great 92 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 2: and the financial maneuvers gave it less of a margin 93 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 2: for error. But like, ultimately, this is a change in 94 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 2: consumer tastes story, and it turns out the consumer taster 95 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 2: or not for that many shrimp. Although the funny thing 96 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 2: is like, in conjunction with like these stories about Red 97 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 2: Lobster's collapse, you also read a lot of anecdotes about 98 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 2: people eating one hundred and eighty shrimp at a sitting 99 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 2: or whatever. I mean, why wouldn't you for reasons, but 100 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 2: like you know that someone. 101 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,280 Speaker 1: Will I mean shrimp. I don't like shrimp, but shrimp 102 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,919 Speaker 1: are kind of the perfect food if you're just trying 103 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 1: to get a lot of protein. 104 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:19,600 Speaker 2: It is true that if I were any one hundred 105 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 2: and eighty of a food. It might be a shrimp. Yeah, 106 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 2: come on, well, the Red Lobster advertised all the shrimps 107 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 2: you could eat. That attracted some number of people who 108 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 2: are like, oh, I can eat a lot of shrimp, 109 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 2: Red Lobster, And it. 110 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: Probably did get people in the door. But there was a. 111 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 2: Really get negative margins. 112 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And there was a fun Bloomberg News piece 113 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: just talking about the state of the restaurant business right now. 114 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: I don't think it's any surprise that inflation is still 115 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 1: pretty high, pretty sticky. The absolute level of prices is 116 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: much higher than it was. And you have all of 117 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,479 Speaker 1: these restaurant changs who you know, their businesses are in 118 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: much better shape than Red Lobster, but they're just going 119 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: for these promotions. You think about Applebee has one dollar 120 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: Margaritos right now, which I actually would like to try. 121 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 1: I can't imagine that as much alcohol. And then Chili's 122 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: has recently introduced the Big Smasher. It's part of its 123 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 1: broader campaign to have three menu items. You put them 124 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 1: all together, they cost eleven dollars. Stay with me here anyway, 125 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: And then. 126 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 2: Maybe you say you put them all together like on 127 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 2: a plate or like when you say, like, do they 128 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 2: actually get a blender? 129 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: You know, definitely not that one. Like you order three 130 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,039 Speaker 1: menu items and all together it costs like eleven dollars. 131 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: But then they quote this man, he's the CEO of 132 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: Aaron Allen and Associates. It's a restaurant consulting firm, and 133 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: he says that these chains sabotage themselves by trading down 134 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 1: just to get cheap hits. It's like taking grandma's jewelry 135 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: to the pawn shop just to get a few quick bucks. 136 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 1: And I guess that's kind of what Red Lobster did. 137 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 1: Are the jewels the lobsters in this scenario, I'm torturing? Yeah, 138 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: And so I don't know if I feel like it 139 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 1: was a whole host of factors. It's probably crushing the 140 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: entire restaurant industry right now is sort of the fast 141 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: casual space. Those financial maneuvers that you described. 142 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I love the idea that there is 143 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 2: a shrimp conspiracy. Yeah, because, like right, there are a 144 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 2: lot of factors that are affecting all of the competitors, 145 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 2: but like here there's the specific factor that they are 146 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 2: owned by their supplier, and so it's like we can 147 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 2: just pump shrimp through the red lobster. 148 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: System and no one will ever know. 149 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 2: No one will ever know except that the CEO. 150 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: Know who put in place the CEO? Was it Thai Union. 151 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 2: Well so the old CEO Tai Union, yeah, pointed and 152 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: the allegations now that he was in the pocket of 153 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 2: Ti Union. But no, the new CEO is from ALPHAREZM. 154 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 2: Marshall is like basically part of the restructuring team. So 155 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 2: he like kind of works for the creditors. And you know, 156 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 2: I wrote in m my column in the first day 157 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 2: of the bankruptcy filing, he writes this statement sort of 158 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 2: alleging that Tai Union was doing all this stuff, the 159 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 2: stuff shrimp through the system. And I wrote that, you know, 160 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 2: in his position, quote you cast a wide net for 161 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 2: possible ways to claw back money for creditors, which I 162 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 2: didn't really intend as a lobster pun. But like several 163 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 2: readers put. 164 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,239 Speaker 1: That claw terrible. That's just terrible. 165 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 2: I mean, like he works for the creditors and like 166 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 2: they need to find as much money as they can, 167 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 2: and like to the extent millions of dollars went out 168 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 2: the door to pay Tie Union for shrip. You have 169 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 2: some case to say it shouldn't have done that, and 170 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 2: like that was a violation of their duty to the 171 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 2: company and get the money back. 172 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 1: I mean the fact that Tai Union appointed the CEO 173 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: and then whittled it down. It's the owner of the company, 174 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: I know, but still and then whittled it down to 175 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,079 Speaker 1: be the sole supplier. If they were one of several, 176 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: maybe that would be a better look. 177 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 2: It's definitely something that looks like a conflict of interest. 178 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 1: It certainly does. What I'm unclear on is whether the 179 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: promotion it's not still going on. Could you and I 180 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: go to the Red Lobster in Times Square. 181 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 2: I was thinking about trying to record this podcast from 182 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 2: a Red Lobster, but I thought they shut down a 183 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 2: lot of the restaurants. 184 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: But the one in Times Square is still open. I 185 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: know that because Bloomberg has actually sent some reporters there and. 186 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 2: They get the shrimp. 187 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: They interviewed a lot of guests, they get the shrimp 188 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 1: that was not in the article Red Luster. 189 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 2: At this late date at Red Lobster and not ordering 190 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 2: the end of this ship. 191 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: I know, I know it wasn't in the article. I 192 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: feel like we need a little bit more on the 193 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: ground reporting. But if the shrimp promotion is still going 194 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: on ourselves, I don't eat shrimp, but I would choke down. 195 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,439 Speaker 1: Maybe maybe not one hundred and eighty, but. 196 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 2: No, I will say, yeah, this is less funny than 197 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 2: the shrimp. But people email me about this. There is 198 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 2: this analogy to the AI investing boom, oh. 199 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: My god, No, Okay, go ahead. 200 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,319 Speaker 2: There's this article from a poor Agarwalla a couple of 201 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: months ago about large language model AI startups and a 202 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 2: lot of their investors are like big cloud and chip 203 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 2: companies like Nvidia and Google and Amazon and Microsoft. And 204 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 2: he wrote this article being like, there is a weird 205 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 2: tension there because these companies are investing billions of dollars 206 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 2: in these AI startups, but a lot of that money 207 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 2: is going right back to the cloud providers in the 208 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 2: form of like paying for chips or paying for cloud compute, 209 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 2: and so like when in Video or Microsoft invests in 210 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 2: an AI startup, like it can say I'm putting in 211 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 2: a billion dollars at a ten billion dollar valuation, but 212 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 2: it's getting most of that money back right, It's like 213 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:23,959 Speaker 2: going to the supplier's bottom line. So he argues that's 214 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 2: bad for venture capitalists in that space, because like the 215 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,959 Speaker 2: valuation of these companies is being driven up by people 216 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 2: whose interest in the company is not just being an 217 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 2: equity investor, but is also being a supplier. And He's 218 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 2: like there's conflicts of interests where like if you are 219 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 2: Microsoft or in Video and you're a big shareholder in 220 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:41,559 Speaker 2: these AI startups, you know, you're like on the board, 221 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 2: you have control over this company. You might make decisions 222 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 2: that are in your best interest as a supplier and 223 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 2: not necessarily in the best interest of the company or 224 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 2: in the other investors, because your money is not really 225 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 2: an equity investment, it's really about finding customers for your 226 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 2: cloud compute power. 227 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: Similarly with the shrimp, Yeah, I was going to say 228 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,959 Speaker 1: I was skeptical, and then actually that is a really 229 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 1: neat parallel in. 230 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 2: Most of these cases, like these companies are not the 231 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 2: controlling shawl, they're appointing the sea. Yeah. Right, Usually there's 232 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 2: like some independent you know, like the startup has its 233 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 2: own business model. But right, I mean, like there are 234 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 2: conflicts of interest there where if you're like a big supplier, 235 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 2: a big exclusive supplier, a lot of the equity investment 236 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 2: is going directly to you, Like your interest is maybe 237 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 2: less as an equity investor more as a supplier. 238 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: I will say, like imagining, you know, an executive with 239 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: semiconductor chips falling out of his pockets and his briefcase. 240 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: It's definitely not as much fun as shrimp. But that 241 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: does make a lot of sense. 242 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 2: Right, Like you hope that like this is like in 243 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 2: the earlier stage where it's like not as fun. You're 244 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 2: not like, oh, they're like stuffing computing power into these 245 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 2: AI startups, right because like they're all trying to make money. 246 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 2: They're all, you know, optimistic and hopeful. It's not like 247 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: Red Lovester with like sort of the end of the run. 248 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,719 Speaker 2: But uh, I don't know, food. 249 00:11:51,480 --> 00:12:12,079 Speaker 1: For thoughts, some shrimp for thought. From shrimp to fat fingers. 250 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: This is a sad story because that's a great story. 251 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: I mean, it is about human error and who among 252 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: us hasn't accidentally tried to sell four hundred and forty 253 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: four billion dollars worth of equities. 254 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 2: It is the most natural mistake it can possibly make. 255 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: Why don't you walk us through the worst fourteen minutes 256 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:33,319 Speaker 1: of this trader's career. 257 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 2: Okay, So there's a trader at city in London, apparently working. 258 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: From home on a Monday holiday. 259 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 2: On a Monday Bank holiday. 260 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:46,199 Speaker 1: Talk about a bad Monday. 261 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 2: So this trader works on the Delta one desk and 262 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 2: city to hedge an index features order has to sell 263 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 2: a big basket of stocks on thirteen different European stock exchanges. 264 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 2: Pulls up the order management system. There's like a box 265 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 2: where you enter the quantity you want to sell. Actually 266 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 2: there's two boxes. You can enter the quantity in terms 267 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 2: of like units basically like shares of the index, or 268 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 2: you can enter the quantity in dollars. This person wants 269 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,320 Speaker 2: to sell fifty eight million dollars, enters fifty eight million 270 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 2: in the shares field, and therefore sells fifty eight million units, 271 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 2: which is you know, four hundred and forty four billion 272 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 2: dollars worth of stocks. So fills out the form and 273 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 2: then this is the amazing part to me, the order 274 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 2: management system displays you know, fifty eight million units, but 275 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 2: then also displays a dollar amount. But instead of displaying 276 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 2: four hundred and forty four billion, which is the actual 277 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 2: dollar amount, it displays negative fifty eight million. Because in 278 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 2: that field, it like pulls in from an external pricing 279 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 2: source and the pricing source is like turned off that 280 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 2: morning because I don't know if because the market's not opener, 281 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 2: because the bank holiday or whatever. The pricing source is 282 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 2: turned off. And so City's system says, the pricing sources 283 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 2: isn't available, so we're going to default to negative one 284 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 2: dollar as a price for each share, right, So the 285 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 2: trader types in fifty eight million shares, and the thing 286 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 2: pulls in a price of negative fifty eight million. So 287 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 2: the trader looks at that and says, yes, right, I 288 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 2: wanted fifty eight million dollars. It's showing me fifty eight 289 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 2: million dollars. Now there's a minussignment. You know, everything is 290 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 2: like no one knows what the sign is supposed to 291 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: be on any of these systems, And so the trader's like, yes, okay, 292 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 2: fifty eight million dollars just like I thought. Clicks okay. 293 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 2: Then the next thing the system does pops up seven 294 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 2: hundred and eleven warning error messages right saying, are you 295 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 2: sure you want to sell you know, a billion dollars 296 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: worth of stock in Sweden? Are you sure you want 297 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 2: to sell a billion dollars worth of that? Suck? And 298 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 2: the trader, first of all, only sees eighteen of these 299 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 2: messages because you have to scroll down to see the 300 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 2: other six hundred nine and why would you and telling yeah, 301 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 2: it's a big order whatever, I'm clicking yes, so trader 302 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 2: clicks yes. Then it shows like a final confirmation, like 303 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 2: do you really want to sell? And at this point 304 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 2: it has crossed off half of the orders. It's like 305 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 2: half of these orders. Even cities somewhat chanky system knows 306 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 2: that it should not sell, you know, more than two 307 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 2: billion dollars worth of any stock, so like all the 308 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 2: stocks that s to some more than two billion dollars worth, 309 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: it cuts out, but still it says, okay, fine, do 310 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 2: you really want to sell one hundred and ninety six 311 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 2: billion dollars worth of stock? And at this point the 312 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 2: trader says sure and clicks yes, and off City goes 313 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 2: to sell one hundred ninety six billion dollars worth of stock, 314 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 2: which causes a flash crash, and like a bunch of 315 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 2: different European stock markets. 316 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's just amazing. Hearing you describe it 317 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: makes my blood run cold. I do like to think 318 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: that somewhere along that line I would have stopped myself, 319 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: but one never knows. 320 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 2: I got a lot of emails from people being like 321 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 2: this person should have stopped themselves. I tell you I 322 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 2: know at this point from my own computer use. I 323 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 2: know enough about myself to know I would not. 324 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: Have lived there messages. 325 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 2: You know, because you're an experienced trader, right, you've done 326 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 2: this before? You fill the form. You see the form 327 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 2: show you fifty eight million dollars. You're like, yes, click yes, 328 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 2: and then you get like seven more click buttons that 329 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: to you are just a waste. They're like, okay, I've 330 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 2: already checked it. It's already yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, 331 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 2: yes yes, and you just click. You don't look, I think, 332 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 2: is what happened here. I'm not responsible for trading tens 333 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 2: or hundreds of billions of dollars of stocks across Europe, 334 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 2: but like I click yes all the. 335 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: Time, man, I mean, I think about like my own 336 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: stupid mistakes. I don't have anything of this magnitude, but 337 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: like sending an instant Bloomberg message to the wrong person, 338 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 1: making typos, et cetera, it happens. What is amazing. You 339 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: described it as city somewhat janky system. It wouldn't have 340 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: happened in New York necessarily, but it did happen in London. 341 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 2: They had hard limits on how much you could sell 342 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 2: at one time in New York. 343 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, And the natural question is why, But I don't 344 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: know if you have that answer. 345 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 2: I don't know the answer. But you know, everything is 346 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 2: like silent and hierarchical, and some people put it in 347 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 2: place and some people don't. You know, I don't have 348 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 2: a good answer to why. But one loss put it 349 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 2: in one didn't. 350 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: This in and of itself is amazing, but it's even 351 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: more amazing when you think about City's history, which you 352 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: write about, and you think about what happened with Revlon, 353 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,479 Speaker 1: for example, because it hits a lot of the same notes. 354 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Revlon thing. City was like the 355 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 2: administrativevision on this big loan to Revlon, and like there 356 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,880 Speaker 2: was a sort of fight over whether Reverend was in default. 357 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 2: And as part of that fight, Revlin meant to pay 358 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,479 Speaker 2: like seven million dollars an interest to a couple of 359 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 2: hedge funds, and instead City paid nine hundred million dollars 360 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 2: paid back the loan in full. And then City was like, oops, 361 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 2: can we have the money back? Like half of the 362 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 2: lenders were like sure, here's the money back, and half 363 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 2: of them were like in this fight with Revlin and 364 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 2: we're like, no, we're keeping the money and going to court. 365 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 2: They kind of went in court and eventually lost, but 366 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 2: in the court decision in loving detailed describes how city 367 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 2: messed this up, and it's just incredible, like they had 368 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 2: this system where like the only way for them to 369 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 2: make this interest payment was for some reason, to pay 370 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 2: off the entire principle of the loan, and the City's like, well, 371 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 2: I was going want to do that. So no, it's okay, 372 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 2: you can pay off the entire principle to like a 373 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,120 Speaker 2: fake memo account. So the system thinks it's paying off 374 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 2: the entire principle, but it's not really, no money is 375 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 2: going out the door. And so he's like, sure, that 376 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 2: sounds great, let's do that, right, which is first of all, 377 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 2: like a terrifying thing to agree to. But then secondly, 378 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 2: in order to have it only be paid to a 379 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 2: fake account and not actually go out the door, you 380 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 2: have to click like three boxes, and one is like 381 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 2: pay the principle to the fake account. You're like, okay, 382 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 2: click the principal box, and then the other two are 383 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 2: like just bizarre buzzwords, and so like the three people, 384 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 2: three people had to do this, the three people signing 385 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 2: off on the city thing, like yep, the right boxes checked, 386 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 2: but then they didn't check the other two boxes that 387 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 2: were more complicated, and so they sent out nine hundred 388 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 2: million dollars by accident. And then when they saw that 389 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 2: it had gone out, they called tech support and we like, 390 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 2: the system isn't working. And ultimately turned out the system 391 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 2: was working, but like you know, the system was terribly. 392 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: Dissigned, right, and that happened in twenty twenty one. Yeah, 393 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 1: this trade happened in twenty twenty two, so maybe maybe 394 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: maybe it's all fix, it's all fun. I thought it 395 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: was an interesting size and scope. So ultimately they were 396 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: fined seventy eight million dollars. And apparently when regulators were 397 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 1: thinking about how big the fine should actually be, they 398 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 1: were thinking about how much it cost them in part. 399 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 1: So basically, the Banks Delta one division had generated roughly 400 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 1: six hundred and twelve million dollars in the nine years 401 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: leading up to this trade, in average about sixty eight 402 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,640 Speaker 1: million dollars a year, So you layer on the fines 403 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 1: and the trading losses from that day, and that trade 404 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: costs those desks nearly two years of revenue, which is 405 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 1: pretty painful. That's two years, two years and fourteen minutes. 406 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 2: That's so sad. 407 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: It is so sad. 408 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 2: It's so sad everything you work for and you put 409 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 2: like one number in the wrong box and it's like 410 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 2: it's all all goes up in flames. 411 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 1: I always think about that when you read stories like 412 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: this about someone who just makes a human accident, some 413 00:19:56,080 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: unintended pilot hour, no malicious intentions and just a all over. 414 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: And I always think about like the months in the 415 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:06,120 Speaker 1: weeks leading up them going about their lives, not knowing 416 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: that this cataclysmic event was going to happen. And here 417 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 1: we are, and Bloomberg News has reported that this trader 418 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 1: doesn't work at City anymore. I'm not that. 419 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 2: Surprised, but I will say this fine and even this 420 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 2: loss are not about the trader putting the number in 421 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,360 Speaker 2: the wrong box. Like this is a system design issue, right, 422 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 2: Like yeah, the problem here is like, yes, putting the 423 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 2: number in the wrong box, but like having a system that, 424 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 2: like the computer also got confused between the number of 425 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,719 Speaker 2: shares on the dollar in a matter right the computer 426 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 2: was like, oh, yeah, they're all worth one dollar a share, right, 427 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,919 Speaker 2: like wrongly, but then also like the after trade checks 428 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 2: were just not effective. Right in New York, they would 429 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,520 Speaker 2: have blocked this trade automatically, even in London, Like if 430 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 2: you're popping up seven hundred and eleven error messages, it's 431 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,160 Speaker 2: like maybe make a bigger run. 432 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 1: But all that being said, do you think that any 433 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: of the other banks who could potentially hire this trader 434 00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: are thinking that way? Or are they? 435 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 2: I would hire this trader really, Yeah, that's not like 436 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 2: on the list of like. 437 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: Well, they're probably never going to do it again. 438 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 2: Right, One, they're never going to do it again, and 439 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 2: two like, look, obviously people care a lot about attention 440 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 2: to detail, but like there are other skills and like 441 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 2: probably everyone would mess this up once. It's just that 442 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 2: if they have better software to catch it, they won't 443 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 2: actually cost the bank one hundred million dollars. 444 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, make better software. 445 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 2: I think that's the answer that this port trader. Now 446 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 2: I feel really bad. 447 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, this was kind of a bummer. 448 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 2: I do think. The other thing that's amazing in this 449 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 2: case is that the risk managers who are there directly 450 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 2: responsible for oversight of this, like their job was to 451 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 2: catch this. They went on vacation eight minutes before the 452 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 2: trade happened. 453 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,199 Speaker 1: That is wild. I mean just the timeline of this 454 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: whole thing, but the eight minutes that seems like almost unbelievable. 455 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 2: I'm exaggerating when I say they went on vacation. Like 456 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 2: what happened is that, like the handoff from like the 457 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 2: right team to the wrong team happened eight minutes before 458 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 2: this trade, which I think must mean that the right 459 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 2: team in like Asia was handing it off to the 460 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 2: wrong team in London because the damon London was out 461 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 2: for the bank holiday. 462 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, but in any case, right, they probably sent that email, 463 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 1: slammed the Laptop show, and then they literally were on vacation. 464 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,719 Speaker 2: So yeah, I wonder if they got controlled. 465 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 1: This is the section of this podcast that I have 466 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: the lowest expectations for. 467 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 2: Your nucleus accumbents is not lighting up with this one. 468 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: I was hoping they section of your. 469 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 2: Brain that anticipates rewards. 470 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 1: I did google that and the definition was something along 471 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 1: those lines, and then it said it was an incomplete definition. 472 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:45,640 Speaker 1: To just think of it as like the reward center 473 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: of your brain. But I don't know what. 474 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 2: No, I have a much more nuanced understanding of the 475 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 2: nucleus accumbents, I will not share with you. 476 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: Very good, very well. So we're in this situation again 477 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: where we're recording this podcast before your or newsletter on 478 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 1: this topic has come out. I read the actual paper 479 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,199 Speaker 1: and I got to say a lot of it was 480 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: beyond me. But why don't you tell us about this paper? 481 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,360 Speaker 2: This is an incredible favor by basically business school professors 482 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,400 Speaker 2: as opposed to medical school professors. But it's called brain 483 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 2: activity of professional investors signals future stock performance. So what 484 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 2: they did is they took a bunch of like Dutch 485 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 2: professional investors, like people who work at mutual funds, and 486 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 2: they popped them in an MRI machine and they showed 487 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 2: them slides of investment presentations about forty five stocks, and 488 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,639 Speaker 2: they're all like historical. So they would show these like 489 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 2: sort of masked investment cases for a bunch of stocks 490 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 2: at like different times of the past ten years, and 491 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 2: they were like, what do you think would you buy 492 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 2: the stock right? Do you think the stock will up 493 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 2: perform its sector? The investors in the MRI machine either 494 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 2: said yes or no. And they also ran the MRIO 495 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 2: while they're doing this, and it turns out that the 496 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 2: investor's answers were worthless, Like they did not accurately predict 497 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 2: no better than chance's ability to predict whether the stocks 498 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 2: would go up or down. But their brains, their brains 499 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 2: did accurately predict whether the stocks would cover down, which 500 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 2: is to say that if you looked at like ridging, 501 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 2: their brain called the nucleus siccumbents, which is like sort 502 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 2: of the thing that anticipates rewards, right, it lit up 503 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 2: when they saw presentations about stocks that were going to 504 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:32,120 Speaker 2: go up, so subconsciously they knew which stocks would go up, 505 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 2: even though consciously they did not know what stocks would 506 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 2: go up. 507 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:39,439 Speaker 1: I do love that. It's amazing, but the how do 508 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:40,119 Speaker 1: you apply it? 509 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,800 Speaker 2: How do you possibly you put your portfolio manager in 510 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 2: an MRI all day? 511 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 1: That's it? Yes, I mean I think that that would 512 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: be a terrible a terrible existence. 513 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 2: But like if you made a lot of money. 514 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, true, I mean. 515 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 2: If this really worked, by the way, I'm not you know, 516 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,479 Speaker 2: I'm not so sure how well this really worked, but 517 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,479 Speaker 2: it worked in some experimental design. But it's fascinating too 518 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 2: because like how could this work? Right? Like, how could 519 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 2: it be that you can subconsciously. 520 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 1: Just know which stocks secatifitely know, but you can't translate 521 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: that into an actionable decision. 522 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. But so here's what I think the explanation is. 523 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 2: To the extent this is real in the introduction to paper, 524 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 2: they're like the other experiments like this, and one is 525 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 2: like a sort of famous. One is like you play 526 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 2: songs to people in an MRI, and the songs that 527 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 2: light up their brains in certain ways go on to 528 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,679 Speaker 2: become hit songs. It sounds like people's brains instinctively know 529 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 2: it's going to be hit songs. Well that makes a 530 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,440 Speaker 2: lot of sense, right, right, Like something about that song 531 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 2: instinctively like makes everyone like it, right, Like it lights 532 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 2: up a section of your brain, Like, of course that's 533 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,160 Speaker 2: going to go on to be a hit. Right. Maybe 534 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 2: it's the same with stocks, right, It's like a meme 535 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 2: stock phenomenon, where like something about a stock makes these 536 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,239 Speaker 2: investors like it, that's going to make other investors like it, 537 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 2: and so the stock will go up. Right. So that's 538 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,919 Speaker 2: how it works. It has nothing to do with fundamental 539 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 2: financial analysis. It just has to do with something in 540 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 2: the shape of the stock makes people like it, and 541 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,880 Speaker 2: stocks that people like go up because they buy them right, 542 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 2: And if you look at the paper, like the way 543 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 2: they present these investment cases to like the portfolio managers 544 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 2: in the MRI is like they show them the company description, 545 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 2: and they show them a price chart, and they show 546 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 2: them like a fundamentals page that's like a bunch of 547 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 2: like ratios and earnings information, and they show them news 548 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,400 Speaker 2: they show them like summaries of It's like some news 549 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 2: items about the stocks. What actually lights up their brains 550 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 2: is just the description and the price chart. So like 551 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,640 Speaker 2: the fundamental page worthless for the price chart. They see 552 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 2: the price chart and their brain lights up, like that's 553 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 2: a good sign. 554 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,400 Speaker 1: People like lines, yeah, but. 555 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 2: Only some lines, right. The lines that make their brains 556 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 2: light up are the lines that will go up in 557 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 2: the future, right, Like the good looking lines are the 558 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 2: good stocks to buy. It's like technical analysis. If you 559 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,439 Speaker 2: look at a chart and the chart makes you happy, 560 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 2: then it'll probably make other people happy, and so you 561 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 2: should buy that stock. 562 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: That is the best reason why technical analysis might be 563 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,880 Speaker 1: real that I've heard. The only reason it's just good lines. 564 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 2: Technical analysis is like organized mass psychology. Right, It's like, oh, 565 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 2: this line shows that people like the stock, right, It's 566 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,359 Speaker 2: not that weird to think that you could grasp that 567 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 2: at a pre conscious level, right where you would see 568 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,680 Speaker 2: the lines and you don't know what the lines mean, 569 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,720 Speaker 2: but like somewhere deep in your animal brain you're like, 570 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 2: oh that's a good stock. 571 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 1: You're here. Lizard brain activates, and that's basically the foundation 572 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 1: of technical analysis. I mean, again, who knows if any 573 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: of this is actually real? I feel like the only 574 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 1: way to really find out is if this was applied 575 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 1: at scale and we gave this. 576 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:43,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, all you know academic finance paper is it's like okay, 577 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 2: sure that's an interesting result, but like what hedge funds 578 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 2: are implementing it? 579 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:46,639 Speaker 1: Right? Yeah? 580 00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 2: And like I don't know, like you could see Steve 581 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 2: copy like hmm right, Like that's like a thing. 582 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 1: That someone should send him this paper. 583 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:55,960 Speaker 2: It's in money Stock. 584 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 1: Well I hope he read it. 585 00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 2: I mean you probably have to pay a premium. But 586 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 2: like if there's some marginal investor who like can't quite 587 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 2: get a job as a portfolio manager at a top 588 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 2: multi strategy fund, but if you were in an MRI machine, 589 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 2: he could oh yeah, yeah. 590 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,680 Speaker 1: I mean it's all in there. It was bright exactly. 591 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 1: He just he can't translate it. I will say it's 592 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: been a while since I read a paper like this, 593 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 1: and I always love methodology. And there were a few 594 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 1: charming details in here about the actual participants, Like you said, 595 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,399 Speaker 1: they're from leading Dutch investment companies, thirty four participants. Only 596 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,200 Speaker 1: one was a one. I noticed that immediately the mean 597 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:35,440 Speaker 1: age was forty seven. 598 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,719 Speaker 2: You want to do that experiment better, right, But like 599 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 2: I would be interested in doing this experiment because these 600 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 2: are all like Dutch professional money maners. Yeah, I'm interested 601 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 2: in doing it on day traders right. Oh yeah, because 602 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 2: the thing that is happening here is not like deep 603 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 2: fundamental analysis, right. Something that's happening here is like, oh 604 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 2: that line looks good. Maybe like a random amateur would 605 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 2: be just as good. 606 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. We should try it on all different 607 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: members of the population. I also thought this was cute. 608 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 1: So participants received no compensation, but whoever was the most 609 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 1: accurate in predicting stock outcomes would be awarded a prize 610 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 1: of five hundred euros. There were two winners, so that 611 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: they had to split the prize. They each got two 612 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty euros for all told, this lasted eighty 613 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: five minutes, so that's a pretty good return on your time. 614 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 2: I mean I don't know. I mean probably you're like 615 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 2: a one in like thirty chance that two hundred and 616 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 2: fifty euros for an hour and a half at an MRI, Like. 617 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: I don't know, I would do it. Tell it's a. 618 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 2: Professional money manager's like their day job is picking slacks 619 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 2: that will go up and they get paid more than that. 620 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 1: For Yeah, but it sounds like they're not too good 621 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: at that. 622 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 2: And that was The Money Stuff Podcast. 623 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Levian and I'm Katie Greifeld. 624 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 2: You can find my work by subscribing to the money 625 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 2: Stuff newsletter on Bloomberg. 626 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 1: Dot com, and you can find me on Bloomberg TV 627 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 1: every day between ten to eleven am Eastern. 628 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,360 Speaker 2: We'd love to hear You can send an email to 629 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 2: Moneypot at Bloomberg dot net, ask us a question and 630 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 2: we might answer it on air. 631 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: You can also subscribe to our show wherever you're listening 632 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: right now and leave us a review. It helps more 633 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: people find the show. 634 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 2: The Money Stuff Podcast is produced by Anna Maserakus and 635 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:16,719 Speaker 2: Moses onam Our. 636 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 1: Theme music was composed by Blake. 637 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 2: Maples, Brandon Francis Newdhim is our executive producer. 638 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 1: And Stage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 639 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Money Stuff Podcast. We'll be 640 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 2: back next week with more stuff