1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good. 2 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: All right. 3 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 2: Here we go. 4 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: Throwing in Joe. We're saying it's a cash We see 5 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win. 6 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:24,320 Speaker 3: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. 7 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: I like to make money. 8 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 4: All right. 9 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: This is the ultimate Kabaki. 10 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 5: Want to pa. 11 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:33,319 Speaker 1: And we are good new way. 12 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Brandon Anderson, 13 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,639 Speaker 3: and this is another episode of Strong Side Fridays. I'm 14 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 3: here as always with Raheem Palmer, getting you ready for 15 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 3: some Week five NFL Action. It is a new month, 16 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 3: so we are trying out some new segments. Today. We're 17 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 3: gonna jump right into our picks and hopefully get you 18 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 3: a few more plays, and then we'll finish with a 19 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 3: new look Ahead segment that we are really excited about. 20 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 3: At the end, Raheem, can you believe it's already a 21 00:00:59,040 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 3: Week five? 22 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: Yeah? 23 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 5: Tom is flying man. It is what it is man. 24 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 5: I'm just ready to keep it, keep it moving. Enjoyed 25 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 5: his NFL season, wilse here, but fortunately we got an 26 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 5: extra week this year. 27 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,119 Speaker 3: That's true, and NBA is coming soon. Raheem and I 28 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 3: cover NBA extensively, so make sure to watch for all 29 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 3: of our articles and picks on the app. Raheem's had 30 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 3: a couple articles up already this week on how to 31 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 3: bet the NBA season. Make sure to follow us at 32 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 3: the Buckets podcast feed. Also right here in the Action 33 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 3: Network podcast network we are on Wednesdays and Fridays. 34 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 5: There. 35 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 3: Don't forget to download the award winning app if you 36 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,759 Speaker 3: haven't yet, you know the drill as always. Odds today 37 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,680 Speaker 3: are from BETMGM, the official odds provider of the Action 38 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 3: Network podcast. Let's get down to business and make some 39 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 3: week five picks. 40 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: Let's get down. Let's get down to business. 41 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 3: So our first segment is called It's a Trap and 42 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 3: this is all about our professional better Raheems sniffing out 43 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 3: the trappiest trap that the books have set that week 44 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 3: and going the other way on it. Make what some 45 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 3: on it? So the spot to fade the public, maybe 46 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 3: go pros versus Joe's. So him, what trap are you 47 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 3: avoiding this week? 48 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: I'm avoiding the Los Angeles Chargers. 49 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 5: I mean this is probably gonna be probably the biggest 50 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 5: public spot of the week. Everybody saw the Los Angeles Chargers, 51 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 5: they went back to back to divisional games because the 52 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 5: Kansas City Chiefs, they. 53 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: Come back on Monday Night football and if defeat the. 54 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 5: Las Vegas Raiders, and now they got the lowly Browns 55 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 5: who just was able to beat the Minnesota Vigagaans on 56 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 5: the road by seven points. But for me, this is 57 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 5: the spot to play the Browns. I think the Charges 58 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 5: are being overvalue here. They're laying two and a half points. 59 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 5: Publicists pushing this line all the way from minus one 60 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 5: to two and a half, and I think this should 61 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 5: be a pick them or the Browns should be a 62 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 5: short favorite at best. I mean, when you look at 63 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 5: Justin Herbert, he's a star to make it. But this 64 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 5: will be the best defense in which the Chargers have 65 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 5: faced this season. The Cleveland Browns the third and football 66 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 5: outside of the defensive DBOA their second success rate and 67 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 5: second and drop back success rate. Looking at this the Chargers' opponents, 68 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 5: they face the Washington Football team, Dallas Cowboys to Kansas 69 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 5: City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders. Those are teams that 70 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 5: ranked twenty eight, tenth, thirty, second, and fifteenth at defensive DVOWA. 71 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,639 Speaker 5: You would never guessed the Cowboys are the best defense 72 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 5: on that list according to Dvoa. 73 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: Nevertheless, to the Browns, they should present a challenge for Herbert. 74 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 5: And when you look at this Chargers offense, they haven't 75 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,080 Speaker 5: been as great as they see that. I mean they 76 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 5: just eleventh and success rate. They've really made their living 77 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 5: on third down with a converted fifty percent of their attempts, 78 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 5: which is ten percent over expectation. On the other side 79 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 5: of the ball, the Browns, they should be able to 80 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 5: find some success with Nick Chubb Greve be Hunt. He's 81 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 5: just charges defense which is thirty off Russian success rate. 82 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 5: The Raiders couldn't get the Browns game going, but I 83 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 5: expect the Browns to be able to run the ball 84 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 5: all game and if Baker can make a few plays 85 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 5: like thin, the Browns. 86 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: Win this game. Yeah. 87 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 3: The run game to me is the big thing here 88 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 3: because I loved the Chargers both the last two weeks. 89 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 3: Loved them against the Chiefs, loved them against the Raiders. 90 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 3: It's a matchup thing. You gotta play the matchup each week. 91 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 3: And we talked about brand Staley that too high defense. 92 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 3: It's all about dropping the safeties deep and forcing you 93 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 3: to check down and beat them with the run game. 94 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 3: Guess what the Browns are more than happy to beat 95 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 3: you in the run game, and next week the Chargers 96 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 3: play the Ravens also. So much as we are high 97 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 3: on the Chargers right now, this is not the time 98 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 3: to be investing in LA futures because I think this 99 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 3: could be a really rough spot in the schedule. You've 100 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 3: got the two run the heaviest teams in the league. 101 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 3: With the Browns and the Ravens up next, it's just 102 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 3: the wrong matchup for them. You gotta play the matchup. 103 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 3: We like them in a matchup where teams are pass heavy. 104 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 3: Now we have the You know, the Browns are number 105 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 3: two in run DVOA attack and the Chargers are number 106 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 3: twenty five in run DVOA defense, So it's a huge mismatch. 107 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 3: It will be with the Ravens next week as well. 108 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 3: If you're in on Herbert, if you're running the Chargers 109 00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 3: or Staley for Coach of the Year, we are too 110 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 3: like them. Don't do it right now. This is not 111 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 3: the time for it. I love the Browns here, I agree, 112 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 3: I think that they should be a favorite. Would you 113 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 3: play the money line here I'm seeing it as high 114 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 3: as plus one fifteen, or do you just want to 115 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 3: take the points. 116 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: I would take both. I mean I think you can. 117 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: You can splitch your wager a lot of times. 118 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 5: What I like to do sometunds is I'll grab the points, 119 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 5: but then I'll also grab the money line as well. 120 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: So I think you can't go wrong with either. 121 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, and we know too. We've talked about this a lot. 122 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 3: Short underdogs have been killing it this season. They're fourteen 123 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 3: and eight against the spread, now short underdogs being three 124 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 3: points or less than all fourteen teams I covered one, 125 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 3: So that's another reason to like the Browns here. Those 126 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 3: short dogs have been especially good on the road. So 127 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 3: love that one. Our next segment is called favorite Favorite, 128 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 3: So this is me. I just can't help myself. I 129 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 3: love to bet favorites their favorite for a reason after all. 130 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 3: But obviously betting too many favorites can be a fools 131 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 3: errand but a lot of them do win and cover. 132 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 3: So favorite favorite is exactly what it sounds like. It's 133 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 3: just my favorite favorite bet of the week. And this 134 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: week I'm gonna talk about one that we already hit. 135 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 3: I'm a hot read. Last week, I still love the 136 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 3: Tennessee Titans minus four at Jacksonville Jaguars. They were minus 137 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 3: three on the hot Red grab them then still more 138 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 3: than happy to play the Titans at minus four Sunday morning. 139 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 3: Before the Titans played their game, they were touchdown favored 140 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 3: to full seven points. And then they played the Jets 141 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 3: and they lost, and everyone has overreacted. Oh no, the 142 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 3: Jaguars are bad, but so are the Titans. They're all terrible. Now, 143 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 3: the Titans aren't bad. They had ninety three plays to 144 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,119 Speaker 3: the sixty for the Jets. They picked up thirty first 145 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 3: downs even without aj or Julio. The problem is this 146 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 3: made a ton of mistakes five to nineteen oht third down, 147 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 3: two to five in the red zone, almost one hundred 148 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 3: penn of the yard, seven sacks. You're not going to 149 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 3: make all those mistakes every week. I don't think the 150 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 3: Titans are good. They're just not terrible either. The Jaguars 151 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 3: are terrible. They're thirty first in DVA, They're thirtieth on 152 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 3: defensive DVOA. The Titans are going to move the ball 153 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 3: on this team. Derrick Henry destroys the Titans, or sorry, 154 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 3: destroys the Jaguars. Over the last five games against Jacksonville, 155 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 3: He's run for seven hundred and forty rushing yards and 156 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 3: nine touchdowns, so that's almost two touchdowns a game. Tennessee 157 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 3: has won seven of eight against Jacksonville, and four of 158 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 3: those wins are by twenty one or more points. So 159 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 3: this is a team the Titans have absolutely dominated recently, 160 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 3: and the Jaguars are worse than ever. This Urban Meyer 161 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 3: thing complete disaster. Somehow, every three days this dude is 162 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 3: back on my timeline making news for some other terrible thing. 163 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 3: It sure feels like the team was quitting on him. 164 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 3: I wonder if he's gonna quit first on the team 165 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 3: before they let him, Like you can't break up with me. 166 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 3: I broke up with you, like it's a mess. The 167 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 3: Jaguars are going to London next week, and I fear 168 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 3: that they might just leave urban Meyer behind once they 169 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 3: get there. I think the Titans roll in this one. 170 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: Oh yeah. 171 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 5: When you look at the Titans last week, I mean, 172 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 5: they've really outplayed the Jets. They hit ninety plays. I 173 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 5: guess my only concern for this is that Mike Mike 174 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 5: Verebel really doesn't perform well in the role of a favorite, 175 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 5: a real favorite at that. That's my only concern. And 176 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 5: then obviously the Titans are twenty six and defensive EPA 177 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 5: for play, so the Jaguars are going to be able 178 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 5: to get something going. It's a tough spot for me, 179 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 5: but I totally understand it, especially with all the turmoil 180 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 5: going on with Jacksonville. 181 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, Jacksonville has run the ball pretty well so and 182 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 3: Tennessee has been not so great in the first half. 183 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 3: So if you do play here, don't be surprised if 184 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 3: it stays close ish until halftime. But Henry has worn 185 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 3: defenses down and that's where the Titans are at their 186 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 3: best in the second half. So if you want to 187 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 3: wait to play it live, you might even be able 188 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 3: to get an even number or a plus money line 189 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 3: if the Jaguars do get a bit of a lead. 190 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 3: But Tennessee is not great, but they're not the twenty 191 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 3: six best team. There's still the class of the division 192 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,839 Speaker 3: or whatever that's worth two anyone, So I think they 193 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 3: find a way to take care of business here. 194 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 2: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by bet MGM, 195 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 2: and to celebrate the twenty twenty one NFL season, bet 196 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 2: MGM is offering a great sign up offer for our list, 197 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 2: a one thousand dollars risk free first bet. You just 198 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 2: open an account at betmgm and make your first deposit, 199 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 2: then make your first bet. 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Plus, 206 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 2: betmgm is compatible with our bets and technology, so when 207 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:39,319 Speaker 2: you place a wager at betmgm, that bet can automatically 208 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 2: be tracked in your Action app. So open an account 209 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,559 Speaker 2: today and make your first bet risk free up to 210 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 2: one thousand dollars. Just click on the link in this 211 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 2: episode description to get started. Must be twenty one or 212 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 2: older and physically located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, 213 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 2: West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada, or Pennsylvania. Please gamble responsibly. 214 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 2: Gambling problem Call one one hundred five two two forty 215 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 2: seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada one eight hundred Gambler 216 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 2: in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. One eight hundred 217 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 2: nine with it in Indiana, one eight hundred two seven 218 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 2: zero seven one one seven in Michigan, one eight hundred 219 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 2: eight eight nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee. One 220 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 2: eight hundred bets off in Iowa, or one eight eight 221 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 2: eight five three two thirty five hundred in Virginia. That's 222 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 2: think not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. 223 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,199 Speaker 3: Let's get back to the show all right. Up next, 224 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 3: it's a little segment that we are calling Tease Me, 225 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 3: Please Me. So Raheema puts out a video every week 226 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 3: with his top teaser play. And I know Rahim, your 227 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 3: picks have been killing of this season. So before you 228 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 3: do your play this week, how would you explain a 229 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 3: teaser to someone who's never played one before? 230 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 1: Okay, A teaser is where you take two or more 231 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: wagers and you combine it into one and you can 232 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: manipulate the points spread by adding to subtracting points to 233 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: generate more value for your wage. So one of the 234 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: legs of the teaser that I like is the Baltimore 235 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: Ravens gonna tease that down from minus seven to minus one, 236 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 1: which means they only got to win. 237 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 5: By two points. They win by one you push. That's 238 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 5: one of the things that you want to look at 239 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 5: the rules of your sportsbook. Obviously, there's some offshore places 240 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 5: where they count a push as a lost. There's some 241 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,199 Speaker 5: other sports books to where you could actually lose one 242 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 5: leg of your teaser, and if you push one leg, 243 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 5: you still get your money back. So you always want 244 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 5: to go to those certain books that has those rules 245 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 5: that are favorable to you. So my two team teaser 246 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 5: obviously is the Baltimore Ravens minus seven. I we're gonna 247 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 5: tease that down to one, and then we're gonna go 248 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,559 Speaker 5: with the Cleveland Browns. Actually, the teaser I gave out 249 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 5: earlier was the Minnesota Vikings. We were teasing that down 250 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 5: from minus seven and a half to minus one and 251 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 5: a half, but that's moved up to nine. Now. 252 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,240 Speaker 1: The thing with these teasers is that. 253 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 5: Oftentimes when you see some of these big faith they 254 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,839 Speaker 5: actually put teaser protection on them. And what that means 255 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 5: is that you'll see a line that's in the seven 256 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 5: or eight range and they'll push it up to nine 257 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 5: or ten. Because teasing down from nine and a half 258 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 5: to three isn't it's not as valuable as teasing down 259 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 5: from seven and a half or eight and a half 260 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 5: or seven down. 261 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 1: To below a field goals. 262 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 5: So I neither removed the Minnesota Vikings for the sake 263 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 5: of this episode. But if you catch my teaser videos 264 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 5: every single week, you would got the Minnesota Vikings under 265 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 5: a field goal. It's too late for that now that 266 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:37,839 Speaker 5: numbers move. So we're gonna tease the Cleveland Browns from 267 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:42,559 Speaker 5: plus two up through plus eight. You're crossing off those 268 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 5: key numbers of six and seven, and we're gonna tease 269 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 5: that with the Baltimore Ravens and they just have to win. 270 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, So just let's talk real quick about the key numbers. 271 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 3: We've explained that before. But when you are teasing, what 272 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 3: what are the numbers in particular that you're looking to 273 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,040 Speaker 3: cross to try to get over some of those to 274 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 3: to get the right teasers and play for you. 275 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 1: Here's a book called Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong, 276 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 1: and he broke down a lot of the teaser rules. 277 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 1: So what you're looking to do is you're looking to 278 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 1: tease roll underdogs or home underdogs plus one plus one 279 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: and a half plus two plus two and a half 280 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: up through the key numbers of three, six, and seven, 281 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: and you're looking to tease home favors down. 282 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 5: From six to a pick them seven down to minus one. 283 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 5: You don't want to tease games with a total over 284 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 5: forty nine. At the time that one actually wrote the book, 285 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 5: the NFL wasn't his highest scoring So now we have 286 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 5: a lot more higher scoring games, so I tend to 287 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 5: break that rule from time to time. 288 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 3: So the higher the score is, the less valuable the 289 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 3: six points are that you're buying. So that makes sense there, 290 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 3: and now you want to tease those teams either the 291 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 3: six or seven points to get it down to a 292 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 3: money line basically, so instead of winning by a field 293 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 3: goal or a touchdown, you just need to win. So 294 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 3: that's the upside of betting on the favorite. And then 295 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 3: the flip side is the underdog. Rather than it being 296 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 3: a close dog, you're getting them so where they can 297 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 3: keep it close, cover by a fuel goal, covered by 298 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 3: a touchdown, and you still are winning your side of 299 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 3: the teaser there. So yeah, I had a Minnesota Dallas 300 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 3: teaser that I liked earlier this week. And then those 301 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 3: lines are moving. You know, the books know that this 302 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 3: is the teaser play, and so they're going to move 303 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 3: those lines up, so make sure to get the teasers 304 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 3: early in the week. That's where there's a good value 305 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 3: before the lines move, because if you're getting a six 306 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 3: point value and then the line moves two or three 307 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 3: points as well, you're getting a closing line of value 308 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 3: almost like ten points on some of these if you 309 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 3: get a good pick in there. So a lot of 310 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 3: value on teasers you have your teaser videos been four 311 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 3: now this season. 312 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 1: We're actually I think we're three and. 313 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 3: One, all right. 314 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 5: We lost a week with Pittsburgh and the Raiders add 315 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 5: the Pittsburgh Steelers. I thought it was a bad spot 316 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 5: for the ready to come up to the Monday night 317 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 5: football game and the Stealers just aren't it. 318 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 3: They are not. So I realized this week that I 319 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 3: have somehow talked myself into betting on the Steelers all 320 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 3: four times season, even though we dumped on them the 321 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 3: entire preseason. So I gotta get out. I gotta get 322 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 3: out of there all right. Up next raheem knows I 323 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 3: love my long shots. So our next game is called 324 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 3: upset Special. The premise here is symbol Every week I 325 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 3: will make my case for my favorite money line underdog, 326 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 3: but I think can win out right, So obviously we're 327 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 3: not gonna win every week. That's what the plus juice 328 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 3: is for. However, Week one Jags over Texans, Week two, 329 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 3: Titans over Seahawks, Week three, Chargers over Chiefs, and then 330 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 3: last week Jets over Titans. So we are rolling right now. 331 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 3: My underdog this week, I couldn't find a super long 332 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 3: underdog that I re believe in, so a little shorter 333 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 3: this week. But I am fading a team that everybody 334 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 3: loves to bet on. I'm fading the Kansas City Chiefs 335 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 3: at home on Sunday night. I'm backing the Buffalo Bills. 336 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 3: So it's not often that we get to play in 337 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 3: our upset special. The team that I think is the 338 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 3: best team in the NFL right now, that's Buffalo. The 339 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 3: defense has been absolutely killing it. They are the number 340 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,360 Speaker 3: one devo defense. They have two shutouts in the last 341 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 3: two weeks. Granted, just you know, not the greatest opponents, 342 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 3: but shutouts. Nonetheless, it's hard to get a shout out 343 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 3: in the NFL against anyone. Their numbers are absurdly off 344 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 3: the charts right now. Look, we know Mahomes is great, 345 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 3: when know, the Chiefs are great, They're the number one 346 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 3: DVO offense. So we have the best offense against the 347 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 3: best defense. On defense, the Bills right now are averaging 348 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 3: negative point three four one epa per play when the 349 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 3: opponent passes. That is a ridiculous number. It's so far 350 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 3: ahead of every other opponent. Basically, what that tells you 351 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 3: is every three times, look, passing is positive. Passing helps 352 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 3: your team, right not when you play the Bills. When 353 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 3: you play the Bills, every three times you try to pass, 354 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 3: you lose a point. That's not good. That's that's not 355 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 3: what you want your team to do. Is every three 356 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 3: times you try to you know, first down stting down, 357 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 3: third down passes. Oh, we're down a point now. It's 358 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 3: not a great trend for your team. The Chiefs offense, 359 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 3: for perspective, normally gains a point of value every four passes. 360 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 3: That's best in the league. So the Bill defense is 361 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 3: shredding right now. It's gonna be a great matchup. Obviously, 362 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 3: the Chiefs won't have a number one looking offense and 363 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 3: the Bills won't have a number one looking defense. It's 364 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 3: gonna be somewhere in the middle. Why I like this 365 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 3: game is actually the other side of the ball, because 366 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 3: we've got one more outlier, and that's the Chiefs defense. 367 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 3: They're dead last in DVOA. They're historically bad on defense. 368 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 3: Right now, their pass defense is averaging zero point four 369 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,400 Speaker 3: to two to two epa per play, So every time 370 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 3: an opponent runs a pass play every two and a 371 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 3: half plays, they're gaining a point on the Chiefs in 372 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: that scenario. So last week, the Chiefs finally won and 373 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 3: covered against the Eagles, and everyone kind of exhaled. Okay, 374 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,159 Speaker 3: oh good, the Chiefs, the team that we thought is 375 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,959 Speaker 3: finally back. They weren't that great Philadelphia who has not 376 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 3: been a good offense, Philadelphia who struggles to even score 377 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,640 Speaker 3: more than once outside of garbage time. They made six 378 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 3: trips into the red zone last week. They just didn't 379 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 3: convert once they got there. But I think the Bills 380 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 3: are actually something of a better version of Philadelphia. They 381 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 3: got a running quarterback and Josh Allen, but who can 382 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 3: really dial it up deep. They've got great receivers and 383 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 3: digs and Sanders. The Chiefs have allowed nineteen trips into 384 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 3: the red zone already, which is tied for most in 385 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 3: the NFL. So I think the Bills are the better 386 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,919 Speaker 3: team here. It's at arrowhead. But I think that this 387 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 3: line at two and a half or three is the 388 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 3: book saying, come on, it's just Mahomes at home by 389 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 3: a field goal. You got to take the Chiefs right, 390 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 3: it's a trap. Josh Allen is fourteen six and two 391 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 3: against the spread as an underdog seventy percent hit rate. 392 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 3: He's eleven to four and a one in toss up 393 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 3: games with three points or less short underdogs. They are 394 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 3: killing it this season. I like the Bills. This is 395 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 3: a real pivot spot for the Chiefs. Win this game 396 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 3: and they go to three and two, they might be 397 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 3: back atop the division. They are three and two with 398 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 3: the Bills with a tie break, they don't and we 399 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 3: have to have some serious conversations here. I think the 400 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 3: conversations are coming. What do you think? 401 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: I think you're totally tripping, You're creepy, and I'm gonna 402 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 1: tell you. Wow. 403 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,959 Speaker 5: Look the Kansas City Chiefs, they have two losses. They 404 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 5: came against the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers. 405 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,200 Speaker 5: In those games, they lost a turnover marchin six to two, 406 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 5: including a Clyde Edwards Hilaire fumble at the end of 407 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 5: the fourth. 408 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 4: Quarter before they can kick the potential game winning field goal, 409 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 4: like they literally got into the red zone four times 410 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 4: against the Chargers and turned the ball over. 411 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 5: Look this Buffalo Bill's defense, they're not nearly as good 412 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 5: as like. With their numbers said, they played the thirty 413 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 5: second ranked schedule of opposing offenses. They faced Davis Mills, 414 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 5: Jacobe Brizzette, Tua got knocked out in first had Taylor Hennikee, 415 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 5: the current washed up Larry Holmes, flabby and sick version 416 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 5: of Ben Roethlisberg, like Mahomes is like ten steps ahead 417 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 5: of all of those guys. Matt Mlono was out for 418 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 5: this game, so they already didn't have an answer for 419 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 5: Travis Kelse last season. 420 00:19:58,200 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: How they gonna stop from there? 421 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 5: With no Matt mullon Donald Tyreek Hill looks. This Chief 422 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 5: offense is first and an offensive efficiency their first and 423 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 5: EPA per play there's second offensive success rate behind the Cowboys. 424 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 5: The Buffalo Bills have no prayer of stopping this Chief's offense. 425 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 5: For the Bills to win or cover this game, then 426 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 5: we need to put up forty points and that's what 427 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 5: we've seen all year. Look last year on the road, 428 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 5: the Chiefs were laying five and a half to the 429 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:29,880 Speaker 5: Buffalo Bills. 430 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,360 Speaker 1: Now they're just laying two and a half. I think 431 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: this is an overreaction. 432 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 5: Everybody saw the Buffalo Bills go out there and win 433 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 5: by forty last week. 434 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 1: It's not happening here. 435 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 5: Mahomes under the field goal. This is the gift of 436 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 5: all gifts. I know it sounds square, but I think 437 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 5: you have to take it. Obviously, if there were some 438 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 5: three and a half three and a half's in the market, 439 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 5: I understand taking the Bills. 440 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 1: At this current price, I would not touch the Bills 441 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: at all. I think you need to jump on the Chiefs. 442 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 3: What's really funny is that we shifted around our segments 443 00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 3: this week and we got rid of our take me 444 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 3: on because we can never find the right game. That 445 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,439 Speaker 3: was a marquee game that we had to head on 446 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 3: and here we go. We found it by accident. We're 447 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 3: back had to head. I believe in the Bills here. 448 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 3: I believed in the charges against the Chiefs a couple 449 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,400 Speaker 3: weeks ago when that was crazy also and they got 450 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 3: the win. I think that this game will be close, 451 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 3: and if it's close, Here's what that means. Either Patrick 452 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 3: Mahomes is on the field against the Bills defense that's 453 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,400 Speaker 3: very good and that can have a chance against them, 454 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 3: or Josh Allen is on the field against the Chiefs defense. 455 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 3: They can't stop anyone. So I like my chances there. 456 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 3: I think that it's I'm not saying that I love 457 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 3: my chances, but I think that at least I have 458 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 3: a shot here. I think the Bills are in the game. 459 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 3: The Chiefs before last week had played in ten straight 460 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 3: one score games other than a week seventeen games, so 461 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 3: we're probably going to be close here. The Chiefs defense 462 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 3: lets opponents hang around. This might be a spot where 463 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 3: we remember what Brian Dable is doing with his Bills 464 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 3: offense and they really dial up some big plays. Also, 465 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 3: the Chiefs love to get down early. They've had a 466 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 3: hard time getting out of the gates, and the Bills 467 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 3: have the sort of offense that could put up fourteen 468 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,919 Speaker 3: twenty one points in a hurry. I know so they 469 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 3: did in the playoffs last year too. It didn't help 470 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 3: them that much. But I think this is a worse 471 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 3: version of these Chiefs. It's a better version of the Bills. 472 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 3: I'm excited to see a playout. It's our Sunday Night game. 473 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 3: So when you next hear from us Sunday Night, this 474 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,400 Speaker 3: will probably be the one that we are leading off with. 475 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 3: But our new segment, our last one that we've been 476 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 3: dying to do, is the look Ahead. So everyone's excited. 477 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,439 Speaker 3: We're all talking about the Sunday games this week, but 478 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 3: sharp batters are already looking ahead to next week week 479 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 3: six's games. This is the Week six look Ahead. So 480 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 3: on Sunday every week, Rahem and I give our hot 481 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,959 Speaker 3: read games for the following week. We're gonna go one 482 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 3: step further on Fridays. We're gonna close out with our 483 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 3: look ahead. We're gonna try to grab some value on 484 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 3: a line for next week's games that probably won't be 485 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 3: there by even Sunday night when we get to a 486 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 3: hot read. So Ram, we're doing one look ahead pick each. 487 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 3: Who are you taking for your first look ahead for 488 00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 3: Week six? 489 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,160 Speaker 5: All right, I'm going with to Dallas Cowboys minus one 490 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 5: against the New England Patriots. They're on the road next week. 491 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 5: I really think this number is short. I make this 492 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,680 Speaker 5: around two and a half three. This Patriots offense with 493 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 5: Matt Jones it's not gonna be able to keep up 494 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 5: with the Cowboys. You got a Cowboys offense which is 495 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 5: first to success rate. They're successful fifty six percent of 496 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 5: at the time. They're pretty much the mirror image of 497 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,239 Speaker 5: the Kansas City Chiefs. They have a prolific offense, and 498 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 5: we all know if you've got a prolific offense, defense 499 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 5: it matters. 500 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: But it doesn't matter. 501 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 5: On the same level that it didn't in the NFL previously. 502 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 5: I think this Cowboys defense is they're not the pushovers 503 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 5: that they were last year. 504 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 1: You know, Treyvon Diggs is just out there. 505 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 5: He's showing that he can defend. He's getting interceptions to 506 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 5: any week. Mika Parsons is balling. I just think they 507 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,120 Speaker 5: have too much firepower for this Patriots team. So that's 508 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 5: why I'm going with this. This line will probably be 509 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 5: two and a half three next week, especially if the 510 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 5: Cowboys go out there and handle business. 511 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 3: Yeah. The only re that I'm hesitant on this one. 512 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 3: This was actually the first pick that caught my eye 513 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 3: as well, because it seems like such an obvious spot 514 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,919 Speaker 3: for Dallas. The only thing is New England plays the 515 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 3: Texans this week, so they might win by twenty thirty 516 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,679 Speaker 3: points and absolutely blow out the Texans and trick books 517 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 3: into actually sliding this line even further in the wrong direction. 518 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 3: If it gets to plus one, we might get in 519 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,479 Speaker 3: a really great Dallas teaser territory as well. So this 520 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 3: to me was a pick to death that might end 521 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 3: up a hot read where if the line moves even 522 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 3: more in the wrong direction that you know, it's one 523 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 3: that we might come back to Sunday night. But definitely 524 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 3: looks like a good spot for Dallas. It's hard to 525 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 3: see New England scoring enough to keep up with them there. 526 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,440 Speaker 3: For my look ahead pick, I am going to go 527 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 3: with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers on the 528 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 3: road in Chicago. Right now, Packers are minus four and 529 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 3: a half. That line is kind of in the no zone, like, 530 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 3: you know, why grab it now? Well, here's the reason. 531 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,919 Speaker 3: The Bears are playing in Las Vegas this weekend, and 532 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 3: I think that there's a chance that that game ends 533 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 3: up looking a lot like the last road game for 534 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 3: the Bears when they went to Cleveland, and you have 535 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 3: a rough road environment. Vegas has been a great home field. 536 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 3: The fans are allowed and it's hard to get your 537 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 3: snap count right hard to get your offensive line in order, 538 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 3: and the Bears line has been terrible, the Raiders having 539 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 3: Gakway and Crosby tearing it up on pass rush. It's 540 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 3: on the road. I think it's a rough spot for fields, 541 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 3: even with the better play calling. It's a sort of 542 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 3: game where you could rack up a ton of sacks. 543 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 3: The Bears could look really ugly, and if they do, 544 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,639 Speaker 3: then this four and a half line quickly goes to 545 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 3: six or seven and now you have to pay for 546 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 3: the whole touchdown. Green Bay is going to win in 547 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,640 Speaker 3: Chicago because they always do. The Packers have won nineteen 548 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 3: out of twenty two against the Bears. Like Aaron Rodgers 549 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 3: wins so much here in Chicago, they're gonna have to 550 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 3: build a statue here to celebrate him when he retires. 551 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 3: So nineteen wins. They've covered this line seventeen out of 552 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,680 Speaker 3: nineteen times, so the games aren't even close. The Packers 553 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,160 Speaker 3: always win, and look, it's even a win win scenario. 554 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 3: I like Green Bay against the Bengals this weekend, So 555 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 3: if they win, then we're getting inflated because the Bengals 556 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 3: beat the three and one or the Packers beat the 557 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,640 Speaker 3: three and one Bengals. Hooray. If they lose, then they'll 558 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 3: be like, oh, what's inflated. The Packers aren't gonna lose 559 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 3: two in a row. They're gonna kill the Bears either way. 560 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 3: This line is going up. It's gonna be a touchdown 561 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 3: easily by next week. So I'm gonna grab the Packers 562 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 3: minus four and a half at the Bears. 563 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 1: I always got to trust the Packers against the Bears. 564 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:21,360 Speaker 1: So I'm with you all right. 565 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 3: Before we get you out of here for the weekend, 566 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,560 Speaker 3: we're gonna hit you with one for the road, simple 567 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,120 Speaker 3: as it sounds, just one more pick, any sort of pick, 568 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 3: future spread, total props, whatever, we like, anything for you 569 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 3: to keep your eye on. I don't have one today, 570 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 3: so raheem, you've got one left for us? What is 571 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:37,120 Speaker 3: your one for the road? 572 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,120 Speaker 5: I'm going to New Orleans Saints minus two. Look, they're 573 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 5: headed into their bye week. I like to take teams 574 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 5: head into their buy week, especially veteran teams, teams with 575 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 5: good coaches. And they're facing a Washington football team who 576 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,919 Speaker 5: has a defense who might have the most. 577 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: Overrated union in football. 578 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,360 Speaker 5: A lot of people expected this unit with Chase Young, 579 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,399 Speaker 5: Montes sweat to just go out there and dominate. But 580 00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 5: this team is just twenty ninth in points allowed thirty 581 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 5: point five points per game, the twenty ninth and EPA 582 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:07,119 Speaker 5: per play twenty for success rate thirtieth and drop back EPA. 583 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 5: The Saints are gonna find whatever they need offensively in 584 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 5: this game. I know they didn't get Kamara involved too 585 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 5: much last week, and I think they do so this week. 586 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 5: So I think Jamis has a big game. But more importantly, 587 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,480 Speaker 5: the Washington football team, they got the injury bug this week. 588 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 5: Logan Thomas is out with the hamstring injury, pro bow 589 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 5: guard Brandon Sheriff, step of the spring MCL Curtis Samuel 590 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 5: was banged up. They got other wide receivers banged up. 591 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,239 Speaker 5: And I just don't see Taylor Hanike doing to the 592 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 5: Saints what he did with the Falcons defense last last week. 593 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 5: Saints are or fourth for EPA per play on defense, 594 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 5: fifth and success rate on defense. Saints go out here 595 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 5: and win this game. 596 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, the Saints ended up being the elite defense in 597 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,120 Speaker 3: this game, not Washington, which is not necessarily what expected 598 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 3: a month ago. Sean Payton thirty one and twenty against 599 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 3: the spread after a lost sixty one percent cover rate. 600 00:27:57,920 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 3: So in a toss up here you have to go. 601 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 3: But the one thing you can trust that's not jamis 602 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 3: that's not Heineke. It is the Saints defense. So I 603 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 3: like them here and that is a good one to 604 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 3: close out our weekend. So that is going to wrap 605 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 3: it up today at the Action Network Podcast. Make sure 606 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,879 Speaker 3: to download the Action Network app. Please rate, subscribe, and 607 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 3: review the podcast as well. Check out Stucky in Ray Bounds, 608 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 3: Full Slate preview, and Betting six Pack if you haven't yet, 609 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 3: Rahiem and I will be back first thing Monday morning 610 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 3: to run through all the action from week five to 611 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,920 Speaker 3: gloat about all the great picks that we just gave 612 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 3: you today for Raheem Palmer. I'm Brandon Anderson and this 613 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,640 Speaker 3: has been the Action Network Podcast. Enjoy your weekend