WEBVTT - The world needs climate leadership. Can Azerbaijan step up? 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to Zero. I am Akshatrati this week kicking off 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:15.200 COP twenty nine. 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:18.160 So my first impressions of COP is that it reminds 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:21.000 me of thinking day this girl scout gathering we used 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:23.880 to do in like the school gymnasium, where every brownie 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:26.120 true kind of pick a different country and represent it 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:30.000 with some food and a little poster with some information 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:32.559 about the country that you're in charge of, and you 0:00:32.560 --> 0:00:33.840 sort of wand around the gym all day. 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:36.520 Well, this is what COP is like. It's just that 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:41.040 the country's spending millions of dollars and it's adults rather 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:42.360 than girl scouts making it. 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:45.479 And some of the pavilions are pretty spot on. The 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:50.440 UK had a big red phone booth, very recognizable. 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:54.279 Cheesy, I guess for us, but I like the Kyrgyzstan pavilion. 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:59.560 It had a really nice mountain tent, cozy from the inside, 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:01.120 and very pretty. 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:05.959 Kazakhstan also good showing these beautiful rugs draped across the 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:08.240 place in some potteries and ceramics. 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:12.520 You missed the headline. Next to Kazakhstan is the United 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:16.280 States pavilion, and as the plainest pavilion there is It's 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:18.600 almost as if they are preparing that Donald Trump is 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:21.320 going to come back to power and pull the US 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:22.760 out of the UN treaty. 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.760 The mood does seem to be a little bit somber 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:27.520 at the US Pavilion. 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:33.000 Zero is an Azerbaijan in Baku for the twenty ninth 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:36.600 Conference of the Parties, the annual climate summit that brings 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:39.520 together heads of state and delegations from around the world 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:44.720 for two weeks of intense discussions and hopefully major breakthroughs. 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:48.240 If you heard the recent episode we did with avinash 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:52.080 prasad Special Advisor on Climate Change for the Inter American 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:56.520 Development Bank, you know that this year's COP is finance 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.680 COP and the big question on the table is who 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:03.320 will the growing sums needed to tackle climate change. 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:08.000 That's the challenge with climate finance. The whole world benefits, 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:12.200 and some more than others, some more climate vulnerable than others, 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:15.520 and we're asking a different set of people who perhaps 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:19.959 not suffering most from the climate today to make the 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:24.680 biggest contribution, partly because they have contributed the greatest amount 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:28.560 to the climate problem through a century of emissions. 0:02:29.000 --> 0:02:33.079 Driving through Baccu, the city's unique flame shaped skyscrapers are 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:36.200 impossible to miss. It's a tribute to the region's history 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:39.880 of fire worship, but also a constant reminder that this 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:42.800 place was among the first to give birth to the 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:48.080 modern oil industry. Azerbaijan's fossil fuel sector accounts for ninety 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:51.240 percent of its exports and a third of its total 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.720 economic output, but now it must focus on moving away 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:59.000 from fossil fuels, which was the mandate all countries signed 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:03.720 off on at So things kicked off on Monday. 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:08.080 We're approaching the Baku Olympic Stadium and there's this loud hub. 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:08.520 What is this? 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:13.960 I think it's diesel generators. We can smell the fumes 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:17.280 of diesel, and I assume that's how we're going to 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.680 be powered for the next two weeks. It's shaping up 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:23.840 to be an action pack two weeks, and I'm racing myself. 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:26.800 So for today's episode, I bring you bits from my 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:30.600 interview with COP twenty nine President Muktar Babayev to give 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:33.000 you a sense of what's in store at this COP 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:36.520 and Zero's producer Mightily Rao and I discuss why this 0:03:36.640 --> 0:03:39.200 meeting is shaping up to be very different from the 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:42.160 cops of the past, and why the stakes of this 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:43.720 COP are so big? 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:03.080 Hi, Actually, I know that for climate reporters like you, 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:05.200 COP is basically the Super Bowl. 0:04:05.920 --> 0:04:10.320 Yeah, I mean for Americans, yes, I would think better 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:12.040 reference for me is the Cricket World Cup. 0:04:12.120 --> 0:04:14.480 Okay, okay, the Cricket World Cup. So here we are 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:17.560 Cricket World Cup twenty twenty four, also known as COP 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:21.000 twenty nine. And I think even before we get into 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:23.760 what's on the line over the next two weeks in Baku, 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.760 we should probably rewind a little bit and go back 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:31.080 to last year COP twenty eight in Dubai, another Petro state, 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:35.480 another COP that was in some ways controversial, but it 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.279 concluded with what I think we could all agree was 0:04:38.279 --> 0:04:41.960 a pretty big breakthrough. Can you remind listeners what was 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:44.720 the biggest accomplishment of that COP and how it sort 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:46.960 of sets the stage for what we're looking at now 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:47.560 in Baku. 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:50.320 One of the things that every COP has done since 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:54.240 the Paris Agreement was signed in twenty fifteen is to 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:57.200 try and get countries to take actions that would keep 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:01.520 the goals of the Paris Agreement alive. Is trying to 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.720 keep warming below one point five degrees celsius and going 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:07.720 into COP twenty eight in Dubai, that one point five 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:10.840 degree celsius target was really slipping away. So one thing 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:13.200 that countries needed to agree on was to start to 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:16.640 transition away from fossil fuels, and they signed off on 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:20.400 that in a document that all countries agreed on, which 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:24.400 is a big thing for a COP to achieve, because 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:28.599 before that even the mention of fossil fuels in the 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:33.160 final text was considered controversial. But COP twenty eight went 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:36.440 a step further. It's not just about reducing the use 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:39.880 of fossil fuels but also increasing the use of clean energy, 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:42.720 so it set a goal for tripling renewable energy by 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:45.400 the end of the decade. And it also did something 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:48.960 for climate vulnerable countries by putting in the first money 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:52.280 into the Loss and Damage Fund, which currently has some 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:55.080 seven hundred million dollars in there, which is not enough, 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:57.240 but at least it gets to a point where it 0:05:57.279 --> 0:05:59.920 can be operationalized with the help of the World Bank, 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:03.240 and then poorest countries can draw from that fund when 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:08.040 they're hit by climate change, hurricane drafts, floods, things that 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:11.360 they cannot recover from without immediate assistance. 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:15.920 And if each COP has its idiosyncrasies, some of that 0:06:15.960 --> 0:06:19.040 comes down to the personality of a person who's leading it. 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:23.279 Last time, it was Sultan al Jabbar, someone you profiled 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:25.200 in the run up to COP twenty eight at Dubai. 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:29.200 What was his approach that made it a success? 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:33.120 So Sultan Algebra wore many hats. He was the CEO 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:37.960 of the oil company Adnock, the chairperson of Mazdar, the 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:42.120 UA's renewable energy company, and somebody who'd been at climate 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:45.680 summits representing the UA for almost a decade before that. 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:50.760 So that combination of old world energy, New World energy, 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:54.440 and climate diplomacy was crucial in trying to bring together 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:59.480 these two hundred countries to sign off on what our 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.960 contraver texts. Even today, he was able to do that 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:05.760 because the UAE, the country, and the leader of the 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:09.320 country gave him the mandate to actually get this deal done. 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:13.760 Now Here we are in Iserbaijan, where there doesn't necessarily 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:17.440 seem to be that kind of mandate coming from the government. 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:21.360 Let's get into Iserbaijan's relationship to this process. How would 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:25.360 you sort of explain where they sit in terms of 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:27.720 trying to achieve big climate breakthroughs. 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:28.560 Yeah. 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:32.560 One question that people keep asking is that why is 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:36.920 Baku the home to COP And the procedural answer is 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:40.520 that COP meetings rotate in different regions of the world 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:41.280 every year. 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:43.520 So in some ways it was their turn, or someone 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:45.200 from that region had to have a turn. 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:47.800 Correct. It was supposed to be an Eastern European COP, 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:50.280 all countries in that region had to agree on who 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.640 would host it, and Russia was playing the baddie by 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:56.720 not allowing a European country like Bulgaria to host it, 0:07:57.160 --> 0:08:02.160 so eventually Azerbaijan was the only real option for this COP. 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:06.360 But Azerbaijan as a country has not really been active 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.320 in the climate space. One expert who's been to most 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:13.560 COPS told me that from her memory, Azerbaijan has never 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:16.840 stood up and spoken at a COP meeting before, never 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:20.840 piped up no. It's climate plan, which was recently assessed 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:26.000 by Climate Action Tracker, is rated critically insufficient. It does 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:28.520 not have an at zero goal. If it followed that plan, 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:32.520 the world would warm up by four degrees celsius, and 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:36.720 Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on fossil fuels even for its 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:40.720 own economic future. Europe, which was reliant on Russian gas 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:44.040 is now trying to move away and it has to 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:46.480 tap other sources of gas. One of them is likely 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:50.400 to be Azerbaijan. Then there are geopolitical issues. The country 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.360 has been at conflict with Armenia and over the past 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:56.040 year has been trying to finalize a peace deal with 0:08:56.160 --> 0:09:00.200 the country. So there's a lot happening in Azerbaijan. It's 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:03.800 got nothing to do with KOPP and yet this is 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:06.439 what cops end up being. They end up being in 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.640 places around the world where, regardless of the hundred issues 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:12.600 that are at play, climate change and how to tackle 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.120 climate change is going to be the focus for the 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:16.000 next two weeks. 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.480 So it's a delicate diplomatic balancing act. And there's a 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.240 lot on the line this year and a lot of 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:24.800 complications this year. But you caught up with Mukdharbarbayev. 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.960 Your name is Akshatrakshya, and. 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:29.400 You've got a chance to ask him a little more 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:32.920 about what his approach is going to be. Like let's 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:35.079 talk a little bit about him in particular. 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:39.760 Mukhzharbabayev is the Environment Minister of Azerbaijan right now, but 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:42.959 before that from nineteen ninety four to twenty eighteen he 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:46.920 worked for Sokar, the Azerbaijani oil company, and he was 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:50.880 in charge for efforts to limit Sokar's environmental impact, so 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.200 he has some experience trying to figure out plans to 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:57.400 reduce the missions. But nonprofits have also expressed their disappointment 0:09:57.600 --> 0:10:00.680 that yet again an executive from a fossil field company 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:05.040 has been put in place to lead negotiations on how 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:06.920 to move away from fossil fuels. 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:08.319 And do you think he's up to the task. 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.320 We don't know. The thing with COP presidents is that 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.840 they're almost always doing the job for the first time, 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:18.640 and it's not an easy job. You have to get 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:21.920 two hundred countries to agree on something, plus you have 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:24.920 to learn very quickly. You're typically only given the plan 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:28.520 for hosting a COP about a year in advance. Azerbaijan 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:31.559 had even fewer than twelve months to really prepare. 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:34.320 And even before things started there was a lot of 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:37.600 talk about concerns about the number of people who are 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:39.400 going to be able to attend, the number of badges 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:40.160 being given out. 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:43.000 Right, Yes, this is certainly going to be a smaller 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:46.040 COP than COP twenty eight in Dubai or even COP 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:50.400 twenty seven in Egypt. I got a chance to ask 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:55.360 Babayev about these complaints from NGOs on the number of 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:59.360 badges and whether they'll be able to allow for all 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:01.440 the people who really want to come. There have been 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:05.800 lots of complaints from angios about number of badges that 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:08.760 people are being given. Have you heard anything about it? 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.680 Is there just a fewer number of badges this year? 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:14.240 Is that how we just have to learn to deal 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.160 with the fact that not enough. 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:20.840 To hear much should frankly speaking, possibly, I don't know. 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:25.080 I don't know in detail, but I think we will 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:33.480 provide necessity badges and other permissions for entrance to other organizations. 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.280 We have not any limitations in it. 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:39.360 So it's not the most decisive answer, but it sounds 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:42.040 like he was at least willing to acknowledge that this 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:43.600 is an issue that they're aware of. 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:47.120 And I also asked him about protests because that is 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:50.480 something that is a big feature of COP meetings and 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:54.840 Azerbaijan is known to be a repressive regime and protests 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:58.240 are not typically free and open, So I asked him 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:01.680 whether they are making our rangements for climate activists to 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:05.840 show up at COP twenty nine and be allowed to protest. Shot. 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:06.440 You know this. 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:12.199 We announced that COPY in Baku will inclusive and transparent, 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:18.920 and we invited all stakeholders to come to Baku to forum. 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:23.000 We will provide all necessity conditions for the parties to 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:27.400 come be a part of the discussions, debates, consultations at 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:27.960 the same time. 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.000 We'll see how that shapes up. Because this is my 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:33.520 first COP, but I understand that that's usually almost a 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.319 part of the joy of the proceedings is the noise 0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:43.559 company and the energy from the protesters. After the break, 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.839 we'll talk more about how success will be defined at 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:57.480 this cup. So actually, here we are in Baku. What 0:12:57.520 --> 0:12:59.360 are the big ticket items at this cup? 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.679 All cops have a long list of agenda items, but 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.920 there are really two big ticket items. One is something 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:12.280 called NCQG, the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance. Yes, 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:16.280 a mouthful, but really important because it's the money that 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:20.480 rich countries are supposed to give to poor countries. Previously, 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.480 that number was one hundred billion dollars and was agreed 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:26.000 on in two thousand and nine that rich countries would 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:30.160 reach by twenty twenty they didn't quite mean that in 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:33.120 twenty twenty, but eventually they say they got there by 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:36.800 twenty twenty two, and that was a big moment because, 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:40.040 as we all know, the problem of climate has been 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.280 created by the emissions from rich countries, and now poor 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:45.679 countries don't have the carbon budget to use up all 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:48.439 that coal and oil to develop themselves. Instead, they need 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.360 to move to clean energy, and this money is supposed 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:56.640 to help poor countries green their energy. But also because 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.160 we're already at one point three degrees celsius of warming 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:02.440 relative to industrial times, there are climate impacts as we 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:05.040 see all around the world, and so some of that 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:07.760 money is supposed to go for adaptation, to try and 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:11.320 build infrastructure that would be ready for the warming that 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:16.360 we have already created. So at COP twenty nine they 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:18.959 need to come up with the new one hundred billion 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:22.200 dollar figure, which is going to be much larger because 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.720 the needs of poor countries have grown in that time. 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.560 We talked to avinash Persad about this. The numbers being 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.920 floated are as high as a trillion dollars or maybe 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.760 even two trillion dollars, and if that is the size 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.680 of the part, we should just recognize there just isn't 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:44.080 enough money from rich countries that goes to poor countries. Today, 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:48.240 all of the foreign aid budget annually adds up to 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.400 only about two hundred billion dollars. So how are we 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:54.680 going to reach that trillion dollars? Let's hear from Abinash. 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.640 Developing countries have said the number we need is a trillion. 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:03.440 Developed country have said, maybe maybe there's a trillion, but 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:06.880 that's not coming from our budgets. There's no space there. 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.600 So I think that the pathway to success would be 0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:15.160 that we have some real hard guarantees around it. If 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:18.320 developed countries were to say sixty seventy percent is coming 0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:20.400 from the private sector, and we are going to put 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:25.840 up the guarantees that will back sixty to seventy percent, 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.160 and we're going to provide the guarantees that will help 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:35.000 the MDBs to fill the savings bit, the two hundred 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.280 to three hundred billion dollars per year that we need 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:43.000 for investments and resilience and adaptation that can be postpaid 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:46.280 from the savings, and then we're going to raise our 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:49.120 budgets to do this cost bit. I think that that's 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:50.000 the way to get there. 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.400 Okay, so that's one big ticket item what else is 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:53.920 on the table. 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.480 The other one is called Article six, another jargon. This 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:02.000 one refers to a specific article inside the Paris Agreement, 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:06.440 which assigned in twenty fifteen, that deals with carbon markets. 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.000 The idea is that countries that are doing better on 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:13.760 emissions or have big forests that need protecting because they 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:17.120 are sequesting all this carbon should be able to trade 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:21.880 their carbon benefits with rich countries that are polluting more. 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:25.240 And that would also create one more route through which 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:28.280 rich countries are able to send money to poor countries. 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:31.680 But it's also quite controversial, right, this is a market 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.200 where there's a lot of opportunity for fraud or. 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:38.200 Abuse, exactly why it's taken so long to actually agree 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.720 to the rules around this market. At Bloombergreen, we have 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:45.920 exposed many of these frauds in the voluntary carbon market, 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.880 and there is a risk that if the rules aren't 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:53.720 clear enough, those frauds will get perpetuated, perhaps even at 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:57.600 a larger scale, because Article six will give this market 0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:01.160 a stamp of approval from the United Nations, which suddenly 0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:04.760 makes this market not just voluntary, but with a UN stamp. 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:07.920 So this is when there's a chance to potentially course 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:11.639 correct on this and make this carbon offset market have 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:14.320 some real teeth, have some real meaning. This is something 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:16.359 Bloomberg Green has been covering a lot, and you just 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.240 published an investigation around this, right, Yeah. 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:21.280 So the one that we looked at was a specific 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:25.639 type of offset called renewable energy offsets. These are generated 0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:28.480 when a renewable energy plant, say a solar farm or 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:32.000 a wind farm, is built, and the claim is that 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.280 it avoided the building of a coal power plant or 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:36.800 a gas power plant, and thus it should be able 0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:40.560 to not just provide this green electricity, but also provide offsets. 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:44.919 The problem is, we know solar and wind power are 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.760 now the cheapest sources of new energy, so are they 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:50.760 really avoiding the building of these coal power plants? And 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:53.600 experts say these offsets are junk and they should not 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:57.840 be part of any legitimate carbon market. The difficulty is 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:01.920 these renewable energy offsets still exist on the market and 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:05.080 are likely to be the first kind that will be 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:08.760 available on the Article six carbon market if it is approved, 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.960 and market participants need to be aware that they are 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:16.440 perhaps at a risk of buying junk off sets right 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:17.800 at the start of this new market. 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:21.720 So those are the two big ticket items, ironing out 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:27.720 the n CQG and then also sorting out Article six 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.160 and what it means for carbon offsets in the future 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.600 of that market. We've got two weeks ahead. What is 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:36.199 the process of getting any of us done going to 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:37.760 look like here and Baku. 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:40.080 Well, you're already getting a hang of the jargon, so 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:44.720 that's a good place to make SEEQG. Yeah, but yes, 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:48.240 you're right. This is a long process, a long meeting, 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:51.720 and we are on day one, typically the day when 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:55.360 countries have what is called the agenda fight, where they'll 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:58.560 fight and jostle over what actually ends up being discussed 0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:00.679 over the next two weeks. This time, there may not 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:03.320 be much of a fight because we know there are 0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:06.640 certain things that definitely need to be done. Then day 0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:09.000 two and day three we'll see one hundred plus world 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:13.439 leaders come and rally the troops, giving a mandate to 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:17.520 their environment ministers, to their negotiating teams that they care 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:21.080 about acting on this problem and it's not something we 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:25.320 should sniff at. Because under the United Nations manner, Climate 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.960 cop meetings are the largest meetings that the United Nations organizes. 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:32.960 It often has more world leaders than even the United 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:35.720 Nations General Assembly, which happens in New York every year 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:39.560 in September, and so that'll be an important phase. But 0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:43.040 the real crunch time will come towards the second week, 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:47.440 where after all this talking that will happen with multiple 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:51.639 rounds going back and forth, the document that needs to 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:55.720 be agreed on on MCQG and on Article six will 0:19:55.760 --> 0:19:58.919 have few in few square brackets, which is few in 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:02.880 few points disagreement. There will still be some towards the end, 0:20:03.400 --> 0:20:06.720 and hopefully at the end of it all those disappear 0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:07.640 and you get a deal. 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:09.919 I feel like I got a pretty good preview of 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:12.240 this when we went to see the production of Kyoto 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:15.760 put on by the Royal Shakespeare Company in Stratford upon Avon, 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:19.920 a play that made the Kyoto Summit of nineteen ninety 0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:24.280 seven dramatic and fun and all these long meetings kind 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:28.199 of poetic. But it's not going to quite be like that, 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:28.560 is it. 0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:33.760 I hope that it's like that. But giving you experienced 0:20:33.840 --> 0:20:41.120 Kyoto of two weeks in two hours. 0:20:38.960 --> 0:20:42.240 Like beautifully theatrically choreographed two hours. 0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:47.159 Great actors, the dialogue, nice music, this one will be 0:20:47.280 --> 0:20:48.600 much more of a grind. 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.679 Little grittier, little more real life, lots of time in 0:20:51.720 --> 0:20:56.360 conference rooms. We will buckle in. What are your predictions 0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:59.080 for what we're going to see in the next two weeks. 0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:03.520 I don't make predictions, but maybe let me give you 0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:06.320 some wild cards, things that are unlikely to happen, but 0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:09.919 if they happen, they could make a big difference. First 0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:14.760 one is that China comes out and says, you know what, 0:21:15.080 --> 0:21:19.000 we will actually contribute towards this NCQG. So the big 0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:21.960 fight right now is that it's rich countries giving money 0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:24.919 to poor countries. Now I say rich and poor, but 0:21:25.200 --> 0:21:28.000 the United Nations defines it very clearly in what are 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:30.800 called Annex one countries and Annex two countries. And you'd 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:35.240 be surprised, which if the countries that we would class 0:21:35.280 --> 0:21:38.320 poor are an Annex two but aren't really poor, like 0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:43.119 Singapore and the Ue and China. China is now the 0:21:43.160 --> 0:21:45.920 second largest economy in the world still on a per 0:21:45.920 --> 0:21:49.320 capita basis not quite there with Europeans. 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:52.080 But these are slightly outmoded classifications. 0:21:52.320 --> 0:21:55.440 They are, and maybe China will say, you know, don't 0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:58.639 worry about the classifications. We have been spending all this 0:21:58.760 --> 0:22:01.760 money under the Belton Road initiative, some of which has 0:22:01.800 --> 0:22:05.520 gone towards infrastructure that is clean, that is towards electrifying 0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:08.159 the world. We should start to count those towards a 0:22:08.200 --> 0:22:11.440 contribution we are making as a country towards this goal. 0:22:12.040 --> 0:22:15.040 And then the wildest of them all, which is clearly 0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:17.920 not going to happen, but you know, one can dream 0:22:18.160 --> 0:22:22.040 is Russia says. You know, we were the ones who 0:22:22.560 --> 0:22:28.040 ensured that the COP meeting is happening in Baku. As 0:22:28.080 --> 0:22:30.000 a good will, We're going to contribute a few billion 0:22:30.000 --> 0:22:30.840 dollars towards this. 0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:36.480 One real surprise ending there, real unexpected twist. I guess 0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:38.800 never say never. We'll see what happens in the next 0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:42.879 two weeks. Lots to play for, obviously, but here we 0:22:42.920 --> 0:22:45.880 are at the very beginning. We've got a long ways 0:22:45.880 --> 0:22:48.080 to go before there's any kind of agreement at all, 0:22:48.680 --> 0:22:53.000 and it's not even clear whether Iserbaijan and the COP 0:22:53.000 --> 0:22:56.360 twenty nine President Makdhar Babe are fully prepared to make 0:22:56.400 --> 0:23:00.880 this a success. But has Aerbajan done anything so far 0:23:01.000 --> 0:23:04.000 that's really impressed you, Any kind of demonstration of ambition, 0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:07.600 any kind of indication that they want to throw some 0:23:07.680 --> 0:23:11.200 muscle into pulling off some great breakthrough here. 0:23:11.680 --> 0:23:15.040