1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero. I am Akshatrati this week kicking off 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: COP twenty nine. 3 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,160 Speaker 2: So my first impressions of COP is that it reminds 4 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 2: me of thinking day this girl scout gathering we used 5 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 2: to do in like the school gymnasium, where every brownie 6 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 2: true kind of pick a different country and represent it 7 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: with some food and a little poster with some information 8 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 2: about the country that you're in charge of, and you 9 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 2: sort of wand around the gym all day. 10 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 1: Well, this is what COP is like. It's just that 11 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: the country's spending millions of dollars and it's adults rather 12 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: than girl scouts making it. 13 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 2: And some of the pavilions are pretty spot on. The 14 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 2: UK had a big red phone booth, very recognizable. 15 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:54,279 Speaker 1: Cheesy, I guess for us, but I like the Kyrgyzstan pavilion. 16 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: It had a really nice mountain tent, cozy from the inside, 17 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: and very pretty. 18 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 2: Kazakhstan also good showing these beautiful rugs draped across the 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 2: place in some potteries and ceramics. 20 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: You missed the headline. Next to Kazakhstan is the United 21 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: States pavilion, and as the plainest pavilion there is It's 22 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: almost as if they are preparing that Donald Trump is 23 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 1: going to come back to power and pull the US 24 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: out of the UN treaty. 25 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 2: The mood does seem to be a little bit somber 26 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: at the US Pavilion. 27 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: Zero is an Azerbaijan in Baku for the twenty ninth 28 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: Conference of the Parties, the annual climate summit that brings 29 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: together heads of state and delegations from around the world 30 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: for two weeks of intense discussions and hopefully major breakthroughs. 31 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: If you heard the recent episode we did with avinash 32 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: prasad Special Advisor on Climate Change for the Inter American 33 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: Development Bank, you know that this year's COP is finance 34 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: COP and the big question on the table is who 35 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: will the growing sums needed to tackle climate change. 36 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 3: That's the challenge with climate finance. The whole world benefits, 37 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 3: and some more than others, some more climate vulnerable than others, 38 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 3: and we're asking a different set of people who perhaps 39 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 3: not suffering most from the climate today to make the 40 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 3: biggest contribution, partly because they have contributed the greatest amount 41 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 3: to the climate problem through a century of emissions. 42 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 1: Driving through Baccu, the city's unique flame shaped skyscrapers are 43 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: impossible to miss. It's a tribute to the region's history 44 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: of fire worship, but also a constant reminder that this 45 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 1: place was among the first to give birth to the 46 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: modern oil industry. Azerbaijan's fossil fuel sector accounts for ninety 47 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 1: percent of its exports and a third of its total 48 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 1: economic output, but now it must focus on moving away 49 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: from fossil fuels, which was the mandate all countries signed 50 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: off on at So things kicked off on Monday. 51 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 2: We're approaching the Baku Olympic Stadium and there's this loud hub. 52 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 4: What is this? 53 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 1: I think it's diesel generators. We can smell the fumes 54 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 1: of diesel, and I assume that's how we're going to 55 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: be powered for the next two weeks. It's shaping up 56 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: to be an action pack two weeks, and I'm racing myself. 57 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: So for today's episode, I bring you bits from my 58 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: interview with COP twenty nine President Muktar Babayev to give 59 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: you a sense of what's in store at this COP 60 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: and Zero's producer Mightily Rao and I discuss why this 61 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: meeting is shaping up to be very different from the 62 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: cops of the past, and why the stakes of this 63 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: COP are so big? 64 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 2: Hi, Actually, I know that for climate reporters like you, 65 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 2: COP is basically the Super Bowl. 66 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean for Americans, yes, I would think better 67 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: reference for me is the Cricket World Cup. 68 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 2: Okay, okay, the Cricket World Cup. So here we are 69 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 2: Cricket World Cup twenty twenty four, also known as COP 70 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 2: twenty nine. And I think even before we get into 71 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 2: what's on the line over the next two weeks in Baku, 72 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 2: we should probably rewind a little bit and go back 73 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 2: to last year COP twenty eight in Dubai, another Petro state, 74 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 2: another COP that was in some ways controversial, but it 75 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 2: concluded with what I think we could all agree was 76 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 2: a pretty big breakthrough. Can you remind listeners what was 77 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 2: the biggest accomplishment of that COP and how it sort 78 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 2: of sets the stage for what we're looking at now 79 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 2: in Baku. 80 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: One of the things that every COP has done since 81 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: the Paris Agreement was signed in twenty fifteen is to 82 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: try and get countries to take actions that would keep 83 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: the goals of the Paris Agreement alive. Is trying to 84 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 1: keep warming below one point five degrees celsius and going 85 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 1: into COP twenty eight in Dubai, that one point five 86 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 1: degree celsius target was really slipping away. So one thing 87 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 1: that countries needed to agree on was to start to 88 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: transition away from fossil fuels, and they signed off on 89 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 1: that in a document that all countries agreed on, which 90 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: is a big thing for a COP to achieve, because 91 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 1: before that even the mention of fossil fuels in the 92 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 1: final text was considered controversial. But COP twenty eight went 93 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 1: a step further. It's not just about reducing the use 94 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: of fossil fuels but also increasing the use of clean energy, 95 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: so it set a goal for tripling renewable energy by 96 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: the end of the decade. And it also did something 97 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: for climate vulnerable countries by putting in the first money 98 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 1: into the Loss and Damage Fund, which currently has some 99 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: seven hundred million dollars in there, which is not enough, 100 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 1: but at least it gets to a point where it 101 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 1: can be operationalized with the help of the World Bank, 102 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: and then poorest countries can draw from that fund when 103 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: they're hit by climate change, hurricane drafts, floods, things that 104 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 1: they cannot recover from without immediate assistance. 105 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 2: And if each COP has its idiosyncrasies, some of that 106 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 2: comes down to the personality of a person who's leading it. 107 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 2: Last time, it was Sultan al Jabbar, someone you profiled 108 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 2: in the run up to COP twenty eight at Dubai. 109 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 2: What was his approach that made it a success? 110 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: So Sultan Algebra wore many hats. He was the CEO 111 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: of the oil company Adnock, the chairperson of Mazdar, the 112 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: UA's renewable energy company, and somebody who'd been at climate 113 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: summits representing the UA for almost a decade before that. 114 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: So that combination of old world energy, New World energy, 115 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: and climate diplomacy was crucial in trying to bring together 116 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: these two hundred countries to sign off on what our 117 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: contraver texts. Even today, he was able to do that 118 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 1: because the UAE, the country, and the leader of the 119 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: country gave him the mandate to actually get this deal done. 120 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 2: Now Here we are in Iserbaijan, where there doesn't necessarily 121 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: seem to be that kind of mandate coming from the government. 122 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 2: Let's get into Iserbaijan's relationship to this process. How would 123 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 2: you sort of explain where they sit in terms of 124 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 2: trying to achieve big climate breakthroughs. 125 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 5: Yeah. 126 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: One question that people keep asking is that why is 127 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: Baku the home to COP And the procedural answer is 128 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: that COP meetings rotate in different regions of the world 129 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 1: every year. 130 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 2: So in some ways it was their turn, or someone 131 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 2: from that region had to have a turn. 132 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: Correct. It was supposed to be an Eastern European COP, 133 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: all countries in that region had to agree on who 134 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: would host it, and Russia was playing the baddie by 135 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: not allowing a European country like Bulgaria to host it, 136 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: so eventually Azerbaijan was the only real option for this COP. 137 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: But Azerbaijan as a country has not really been active 138 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: in the climate space. One expert who's been to most 139 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: COPS told me that from her memory, Azerbaijan has never 140 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: stood up and spoken at a COP meeting before, never 141 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: piped up no. It's climate plan, which was recently assessed 142 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: by Climate Action Tracker, is rated critically insufficient. It does 143 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: not have an at zero goal. If it followed that plan, 144 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: the world would warm up by four degrees celsius, and 145 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on fossil fuels even for its 146 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: own economic future. Europe, which was reliant on Russian gas 147 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: is now trying to move away and it has to 148 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: tap other sources of gas. One of them is likely 149 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: to be Azerbaijan. Then there are geopolitical issues. The country 150 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: has been at conflict with Armenia and over the past 151 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: year has been trying to finalize a peace deal with 152 00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: the country. So there's a lot happening in Azerbaijan. It's 153 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: got nothing to do with KOPP and yet this is 154 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 1: what cops end up being. They end up being in 155 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: places around the world where, regardless of the hundred issues 156 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: that are at play, climate change and how to tackle 157 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: climate change is going to be the focus for the 158 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 1: next two weeks. 159 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 2: So it's a delicate diplomatic balancing act. And there's a 160 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 2: lot on the line this year and a lot of 161 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 2: complications this year. But you caught up with Mukdharbarbayev. 162 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 4: Your name is Akshatrakshya, and. 163 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 2: You've got a chance to ask him a little more 164 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 2: about what his approach is going to be. Like let's 165 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,079 Speaker 2: talk a little bit about him in particular. 166 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: Mukhzharbabayev is the Environment Minister of Azerbaijan right now, but 167 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,959 Speaker 1: before that from nineteen ninety four to twenty eighteen he 168 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: worked for Sokar, the Azerbaijani oil company, and he was 169 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: in charge for efforts to limit Sokar's environmental impact, so 170 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 1: he has some experience trying to figure out plans to 171 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: reduce the missions. But nonprofits have also expressed their disappointment 172 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: that yet again an executive from a fossil field company 173 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: has been put in place to lead negotiations on how 174 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: to move away from fossil fuels. 175 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:08,319 Speaker 2: And do you think he's up to the task. 176 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 1: We don't know. The thing with COP presidents is that 177 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 1: they're almost always doing the job for the first time, 178 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 1: and it's not an easy job. You have to get 179 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: two hundred countries to agree on something, plus you have 180 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 1: to learn very quickly. You're typically only given the plan 181 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: for hosting a COP about a year in advance. Azerbaijan 182 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,559 Speaker 1: had even fewer than twelve months to really prepare. 183 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 2: And even before things started there was a lot of 184 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 2: talk about concerns about the number of people who are 185 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 2: going to be able to attend, the number of badges 186 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 2: being given out. 187 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: Right, Yes, this is certainly going to be a smaller 188 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 1: COP than COP twenty eight in Dubai or even COP 189 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 1: twenty seven in Egypt. I got a chance to ask 190 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: Babayev about these complaints from NGOs on the number of 191 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 1: badges and whether they'll be able to allow for all 192 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: the people who really want to come. There have been 193 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 1: lots of complaints from angios about number of badges that 194 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: people are being given. Have you heard anything about it? 195 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: Is there just a fewer number of badges this year? 196 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: Is that how we just have to learn to deal 197 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: with the fact that not enough. 198 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 4: To hear much should frankly speaking, possibly, I don't know. 199 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 4: I don't know in detail, but I think we will 200 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 4: provide necessity badges and other permissions for entrance to other organizations. 201 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 4: We have not any limitations in it. 202 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 2: So it's not the most decisive answer, but it sounds 203 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 2: like he was at least willing to acknowledge that this 204 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 2: is an issue that they're aware of. 205 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 1: And I also asked him about protests because that is 206 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: something that is a big feature of COP meetings and 207 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: Azerbaijan is known to be a repressive regime and protests 208 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: are not typically free and open, So I asked him 209 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 1: whether they are making our rangements for climate activists to 210 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 1: show up at COP twenty nine and be allowed to protest. Shot. 211 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: You know this. 212 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:12,199 Speaker 4: We announced that COPY in Baku will inclusive and transparent, 213 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 4: and we invited all stakeholders to come to Baku to forum. 214 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 4: We will provide all necessity conditions for the parties to 215 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 4: come be a part of the discussions, debates, consultations at 216 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 4: the same time. 217 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 2: We'll see how that shapes up. Because this is my 218 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 2: first COP, but I understand that that's usually almost a 219 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 2: part of the joy of the proceedings is the noise 220 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:43,559 Speaker 2: company and the energy from the protesters. After the break, 221 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 2: we'll talk more about how success will be defined at 222 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 2: this cup. So actually, here we are in Baku. What 223 00:12:57,520 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 2: are the big ticket items at this cup? 224 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 1: All cops have a long list of agenda items, but 225 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: there are really two big ticket items. One is something 226 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 1: called NCQG, the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance. Yes, 227 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 1: a mouthful, but really important because it's the money that 228 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: rich countries are supposed to give to poor countries. Previously, 229 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: that number was one hundred billion dollars and was agreed 230 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: on in two thousand and nine that rich countries would 231 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: reach by twenty twenty they didn't quite mean that in 232 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: twenty twenty, but eventually they say they got there by 233 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, and that was a big moment because, 234 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: as we all know, the problem of climate has been 235 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: created by the emissions from rich countries, and now poor 236 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,679 Speaker 1: countries don't have the carbon budget to use up all 237 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,439 Speaker 1: that coal and oil to develop themselves. Instead, they need 238 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 1: to move to clean energy, and this money is supposed 239 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: to help poor countries green their energy. But also because 240 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 1: we're already at one point three degrees celsius of warming 241 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 1: relative to industrial times, there are climate impacts as we 242 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: see all around the world, and so some of that 243 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: money is supposed to go for adaptation, to try and 244 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 1: build infrastructure that would be ready for the warming that 245 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: we have already created. So at COP twenty nine they 246 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 1: need to come up with the new one hundred billion 247 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: dollar figure, which is going to be much larger because 248 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: the needs of poor countries have grown in that time. 249 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: We talked to avinash Persad about this. The numbers being 250 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: floated are as high as a trillion dollars or maybe 251 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 1: even two trillion dollars, and if that is the size 252 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 1: of the part, we should just recognize there just isn't 253 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: enough money from rich countries that goes to poor countries. Today, 254 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: all of the foreign aid budget annually adds up to 255 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: only about two hundred billion dollars. So how are we 256 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: going to reach that trillion dollars? Let's hear from Abinash. 257 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 3: Developing countries have said the number we need is a trillion. 258 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 3: Developed country have said, maybe maybe there's a trillion, but 259 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 3: that's not coming from our budgets. There's no space there. 260 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 3: So I think that the pathway to success would be 261 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 3: that we have some real hard guarantees around it. If 262 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 3: developed countries were to say sixty seventy percent is coming 263 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 3: from the private sector, and we are going to put 264 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 3: up the guarantees that will back sixty to seventy percent, 265 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 3: and we're going to provide the guarantees that will help 266 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 3: the MDBs to fill the savings bit, the two hundred 267 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 3: to three hundred billion dollars per year that we need 268 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 3: for investments and resilience and adaptation that can be postpaid 269 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 3: from the savings, and then we're going to raise our 270 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 3: budgets to do this cost bit. I think that that's 271 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 3: the way to get there. 272 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 2: Okay, so that's one big ticket item what else is 273 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 2: on the table. 274 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: The other one is called Article six, another jargon. This 275 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 1: one refers to a specific article inside the Paris Agreement, 276 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 1: which assigned in twenty fifteen, that deals with carbon markets. 277 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: The idea is that countries that are doing better on 278 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: emissions or have big forests that need protecting because they 279 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 1: are sequesting all this carbon should be able to trade 280 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: their carbon benefits with rich countries that are polluting more. 281 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: And that would also create one more route through which 282 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: rich countries are able to send money to poor countries. 283 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 2: But it's also quite controversial, right, this is a market 284 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 2: where there's a lot of opportunity for fraud or. 285 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: Abuse, exactly why it's taken so long to actually agree 286 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: to the rules around this market. At Bloombergreen, we have 287 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: exposed many of these frauds in the voluntary carbon market, 288 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 1: and there is a risk that if the rules aren't 289 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: clear enough, those frauds will get perpetuated, perhaps even at 290 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: a larger scale, because Article six will give this market 291 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: a stamp of approval from the United Nations, which suddenly 292 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: makes this market not just voluntary, but with a UN stamp. 293 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 2: So this is when there's a chance to potentially course 294 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 2: correct on this and make this carbon offset market have 295 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 2: some real teeth, have some real meaning. This is something 296 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,359 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Green has been covering a lot, and you just 297 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 2: published an investigation around this, right, Yeah. 298 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: So the one that we looked at was a specific 299 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 1: type of offset called renewable energy offsets. These are generated 300 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 1: when a renewable energy plant, say a solar farm or 301 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 1: a wind farm, is built, and the claim is that 302 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 1: it avoided the building of a coal power plant or 303 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 1: a gas power plant, and thus it should be able 304 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: to not just provide this green electricity, but also provide offsets. 305 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 1: The problem is, we know solar and wind power are 306 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: now the cheapest sources of new energy, so are they 307 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 1: really avoiding the building of these coal power plants? And 308 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: experts say these offsets are junk and they should not 309 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: be part of any legitimate carbon market. The difficulty is 310 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 1: these renewable energy offsets still exist on the market and 311 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: are likely to be the first kind that will be 312 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: available on the Article six carbon market if it is approved, 313 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: and market participants need to be aware that they are 314 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 1: perhaps at a risk of buying junk off sets right 315 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 1: at the start of this new market. 316 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 2: So those are the two big ticket items, ironing out 317 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 2: the n CQG and then also sorting out Article six 318 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 2: and what it means for carbon offsets in the future 319 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: of that market. We've got two weeks ahead. What is 320 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 2: the process of getting any of us done going to 321 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 2: look like here and Baku. 322 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: Well, you're already getting a hang of the jargon, so 323 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: that's a good place to make SEEQG. Yeah, but yes, 324 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: you're right. This is a long process, a long meeting, 325 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: and we are on day one, typically the day when 326 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 1: countries have what is called the agenda fight, where they'll 327 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 1: fight and jostle over what actually ends up being discussed 328 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:00,679 Speaker 1: over the next two weeks. This time, there may not 329 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: be much of a fight because we know there are 330 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,640 Speaker 1: certain things that definitely need to be done. Then day 331 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: two and day three we'll see one hundred plus world 332 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:13,439 Speaker 1: leaders come and rally the troops, giving a mandate to 333 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: their environment ministers, to their negotiating teams that they care 334 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: about acting on this problem and it's not something we 335 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 1: should sniff at. Because under the United Nations manner, Climate 336 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: cop meetings are the largest meetings that the United Nations organizes. 337 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 1: It often has more world leaders than even the United 338 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: Nations General Assembly, which happens in New York every year 339 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: in September, and so that'll be an important phase. But 340 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: the real crunch time will come towards the second week, 341 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 1: where after all this talking that will happen with multiple 342 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 1: rounds going back and forth, the document that needs to 343 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: be agreed on on MCQG and on Article six will 344 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 1: have few in few square brackets, which is few in 345 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 1: few points disagreement. There will still be some towards the end, 346 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: and hopefully at the end of it all those disappear 347 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:07,640 Speaker 1: and you get a deal. 348 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 2: I feel like I got a pretty good preview of 349 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 2: this when we went to see the production of Kyoto 350 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 2: put on by the Royal Shakespeare Company in Stratford upon Avon, 351 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 2: a play that made the Kyoto Summit of nineteen ninety 352 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 2: seven dramatic and fun and all these long meetings kind 353 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,199 Speaker 2: of poetic. But it's not going to quite be like that, 354 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 2: is it. 355 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: I hope that it's like that. But giving you experienced 356 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:41,120 Speaker 1: Kyoto of two weeks in two hours. 357 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 2: Like beautifully theatrically choreographed two hours. 358 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:47,159 Speaker 1: Great actors, the dialogue, nice music, this one will be 359 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: much more of a grind. 360 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 2: Little grittier, little more real life, lots of time in 361 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 2: conference rooms. We will buckle in. What are your predictions 362 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 2: for what we're going to see in the next two weeks. 363 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: I don't make predictions, but maybe let me give you 364 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: some wild cards, things that are unlikely to happen, but 365 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 1: if they happen, they could make a big difference. First 366 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: one is that China comes out and says, you know what, 367 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: we will actually contribute towards this NCQG. So the big 368 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 1: fight right now is that it's rich countries giving money 369 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 1: to poor countries. Now I say rich and poor, but 370 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: the United Nations defines it very clearly in what are 371 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: called Annex one countries and Annex two countries. And you'd 372 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: be surprised, which if the countries that we would class 373 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: poor are an Annex two but aren't really poor, like 374 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 1: Singapore and the Ue and China. China is now the 375 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 1: second largest economy in the world still on a per 376 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: capita basis not quite there with Europeans. 377 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 2: But these are slightly outmoded classifications. 378 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,440 Speaker 1: They are, and maybe China will say, you know, don't 379 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 1: worry about the classifications. We have been spending all this 380 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: money under the Belton Road initiative, some of which has 381 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: gone towards infrastructure that is clean, that is towards electrifying 382 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,159 Speaker 1: the world. We should start to count those towards a 383 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 1: contribution we are making as a country towards this goal. 384 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: And then the wildest of them all, which is clearly 385 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: not going to happen, but you know, one can dream 386 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: is Russia says. You know, we were the ones who 387 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: ensured that the COP meeting is happening in Baku. As 388 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: a good will, We're going to contribute a few billion 389 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: dollars towards this. 390 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 2: One real surprise ending there, real unexpected twist. I guess 391 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 2: never say never. We'll see what happens in the next 392 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 2: two weeks. Lots to play for, obviously, but here we 393 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,880 Speaker 2: are at the very beginning. We've got a long ways 394 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 2: to go before there's any kind of agreement at all, 395 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 2: and it's not even clear whether Iserbaijan and the COP 396 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 2: twenty nine President Makdhar Babe are fully prepared to make 397 00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:00,880 Speaker 2: this a success. But has Aerbajan done anything so far 398 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 2: that's really impressed you, Any kind of demonstration of ambition, 399 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 2: any kind of indication that they want to throw some 400 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 2: muscle into pulling off some great breakthrough here. 401 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: Look, organizing a COP meeting is hard, especially if you're 402 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: not a country that typically hosts one hundred were leaders 403 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: on an annual basis, or has the infrastructure, the number 404 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: of hotels, the number of flights that come in to 405 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: get all these people in one place and get them talking. 406 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: So far, we've seen the infrastructure and it works, so 407 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: that's good. The other one is already Azerbaijan wants to 408 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 1: host other COPS, so they put their name forward for 409 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 1: COPS seventeen, which is the Nature COP to be hosted 410 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,639 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. They didn't get it. Their neighbor 411 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 1: Armenia got it, but clearly they think doing this work 412 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: for COP twenty nine was worthy enough that they wanted 413 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: to host another COP. But if we look at narrower 414 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: things at UAE, we had the government come out with 415 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: a thirty billion dollar fund that they want to put 416 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: toward clean energy, and that was a big number coming 417 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 1: from a country on its own. We've seen Azerbaijan try 418 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: to replicate that in the size that is alzer Vaijan 419 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: and much smaller economy, not as rich, by creating a 420 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: one billion dollar fund we'll find out whether there is 421 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 1: real money in it and what actually it goes toward. 422 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 1: But that ambition is there and Muktar Babee have told 423 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: us a little bit about it. How much money have 424 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,679 Speaker 1: you secured in which other countries contribute to? 425 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 4: So we are create a special working group. We invite 426 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 4: the economies and different researchers to this working group, international 427 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,640 Speaker 4: group from the different countries, different international organizations, and now 428 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 4: we are working on the program, working with the countries. 429 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 4: We are preparing the correct concept of this fund and 430 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,880 Speaker 4: we're still continuing this discussion with the countries. 431 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 1: I think there's also the fact that Azerbaijan has a 432 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: major all company. It's the oil company that keeps the 433 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 1: economy running, SOCAR, and SOCAR hasn't been one of those 434 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: companies that you would be able to hold to account 435 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: for its emissions or lack of environmental steps. But because 436 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 1: the world's eyes are now focused on Azarbaijan, SOCAR has 437 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,560 Speaker 1: had to think about what exactly it's doing to reduce 438 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 1: as carbon emissions. It's joined the Methane Pledge, it started 439 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: to cap methane leagues, it has some sort of a 440 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: decarbonization plan and Maktara talked about that too. 441 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 4: Soccer Now in the transition to energy company, they already 442 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 4: started to implement several green projects. They adopted the carbonization 443 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 4: program for twenty fifty. They have several big projects on 444 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:05,160 Speaker 4: green hydrogen and other directions, renewable energy implementation, different projects 445 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 4: off shore wind and others, and specifically the focus now 446 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,400 Speaker 4: the reduction of the mithin emissions at CHET. 447 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 2: There's one thing we haven't talked about yet, which was 448 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 2: the election last week. Donald Trump is going to take 449 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:24,639 Speaker 2: office in twenty twenty five. This doesn't necessarily change what 450 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 2: happens at COP over the next two weeks in some 451 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 2: ways because the delegation that was sent was already set 452 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 2: up by the Biden administration. They've already got all their 453 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 2: plans in place. So what changes with Trump being voted 454 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:40,639 Speaker 2: into office. 455 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 1: Nothing directly because it's the same officials with the same 456 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,400 Speaker 1: mandate coming through. But how much credibility will they have 457 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 1: in these complex negotiations, And that's something I wanted to 458 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 1: understand from someone who has an insider view on this. 459 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 1: We spoke to Jason Bordoff for our previous episode. He's 460 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 1: the founding director at the Seer on Global Energy Policy 461 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: at Columbia University, and here's what he had to say. 462 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 5: Well, I think there would be a significant concern about that. 463 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 5: I mean, as you said, the Biden administration leaders John 464 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 5: Pedesta and his team will still be going to Baku 465 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 5: to negotiate, but of course they're negotiating with people from 466 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 5: other countries that worry whether anything that they say or 467 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 5: commit to will still be binding in two or three 468 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 5: months down the road. And that's not just the UN 469 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,240 Speaker 5: climate negotiations. That was tearing up the Iron Nuclear Deal 470 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 5: when Trump came into power, how he thinks about NATO 471 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 5: and other international agreements. This is about US credibility in 472 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 5: the world, and are people going to be able to 473 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 5: take us at our word if every four years we're 474 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,719 Speaker 5: pulling in and out of these important international agreements. That's 475 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,399 Speaker 5: a real concern and a real risk. And so that 476 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,119 Speaker 5: is there, and it's not at all clear to me 477 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 5: that anything that the Biden administration commits to is necessarily 478 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,199 Speaker 5: going to be honored by the next administration. It's going 479 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 5: to be very hard to mobilize capital at the scale 480 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 5: that people are talking about, and frankly, the climate crisis 481 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 5: demands and requires that is why, even though a lot 482 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 5: was accomplished at COP twenty eight in Dubai, the US 483 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 5: actually put a relatively modest amount of money into the 484 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 5: new Fund for Climate trans for climate finance in developing countries, 485 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 5: and other countries step up to fill the void, particularly 486 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,479 Speaker 5: the UAE, which you know, and the UAE and Saudi 487 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 5: and Golf countries. To the extent the US pulls back 488 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 5: from a leadership role in this sectors, others will step 489 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 5: in to some extent, not probably enough. Golf countries are 490 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 5: a good example of that, and they're doing it for 491 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 5: geostrategic reasons, not just because they care deeply about climate change. 492 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 5: But in this new world of great power competition, non 493 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 5: aligned middle powers like Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, they're being 494 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 5: quite transactional and thinking about who they align themselves with, 495 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 5: not establishing themselves in set redetermined blocks of powers around 496 00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 5: the world. All of that is a threat to the 497 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 5: US US strategic and geopolitical leadership role in the world. 498 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 5: And that's just one of the ways to think about 499 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,560 Speaker 5: the consequences of the US pulling back on this, Not 500 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 5: just that we lose the ability to pay for clean 501 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 5: energy in lower income parts of the world, which is 502 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 5: why I hope there's some recognition on both sides of 503 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 5: the aisle that it's important to still be part of 504 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 5: these conversations. 505 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 2: Actually, this whole conference is playing out with a really 506 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 2: stark backdrop of war. Iran is one of Iserbajean's neighbors. 507 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 2: Russia is another one. As we talked about another neighbor, 508 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 2: Armenia has been in a drawn out process of trying 509 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,720 Speaker 2: to reach a peace agreement with Iserbajan over their conflict. 510 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,000 Speaker 2: In some ways, I feel like it's kind of amazing 511 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 2: to see a diplomatic effort like this in action, even 512 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 2: amid so much conflict. But it also kind of underscores 513 00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 2: just how hard it's going to be to make real 514 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 2: strides in climate policy, doesn't it. 515 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 1: It is, and we are sitting sort of in the 516 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 1: middle and the north you've got the U Green Russia 517 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: war going in the south is well, the attacks on 518 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 1: Gaza and Lebanon, and climate diplomacy still happens because we're 519 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,560 Speaker 1: facing a decadal challenge in front of us. It is 520 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 1: something I asked about. 521 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 4: You know, when we are talking war, please do not 522 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 4: forget that from war, from the conflicts, huge amount of emissions, 523 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,120 Speaker 4: huge amounts, millions of tones. That's why for us this 524 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 4: issue is very important. That's why our one of our 525 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:39,040 Speaker 4: initiative truths also related to such call to the countries 526 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,320 Speaker 4: to announce the CEA is fire, to come to conclusion 527 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 4: to stop the war because millions of tones of emissions, 528 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 4: and I think it is the big impact to nature, 529 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:54,600 Speaker 4: big impact to the climate. And if we will have 530 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 4: the positive reaction reflection from the countries to our call, 531 00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 4: I think it will be very good step to stop 532 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 4: their conflicts. 533 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 1: That's a hopeful note to end on. But we'll find 534 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 1: out over the next two weeks whether that hope turns 535 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 1: into reality. Thank you, action, Thank you, and thank you 536 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 1: for listening to zero and now for the sound of 537 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,480 Speaker 1: the week, Tell me a lot. 538 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:25,440 Speaker 6: You're a Yeah, we are from a group we promote 539 00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 6: vegany ZM, and we are here to promote veganism because 540 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 6: this is a solution for global varmis. And yeah, board began, 541 00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 6: mord began. 542 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 4: Thank you. 543 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: If you liked this episode, please take a moment to 544 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 1: rate or review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 545 00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 1: Share this episode with a friend or with someone who's 546 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: never heard of Azerbaijan. Like my sister, you can get 547 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,719 Speaker 1: in touch at Zero Pod at Bloomberg dot Net. Zero's 548 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 1: producer is Mighty Lerau, Bloomberg's head a podcast is Sage 549 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: Bowman and head of Talk is Brendan nunan Our. The 550 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: music is composed wonderly special thanks to Gender Louis John Ainger, 551 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 1: Schwan Wagner, Monique Mulima, Ethan Steinberg, Blake Maples and Jessica 552 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,720 Speaker 1: beec I am Akshadrati. Back later this week.