WEBVTT - Win for H-1B Visa Holders & Circuits In Play Post-Election

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Law with June Brusso from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Immigration will no doubt be a top issue in the

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<v Speaker 2>presidential campaign.

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump does not care about border security.

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<v Speaker 3>He only cares about himself.

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<v Speaker 2>Vice President Kamala Harris has come out swinging, trying to

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<v Speaker 2>flip the script on former President Donald Trump on his

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<v Speaker 2>favorite issue, blaming Trump for convincing Republicans to tank the

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<v Speaker 2>bipartisan border deal earlier this year. For their part, Republicans

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<v Speaker 2>are blaming Harris for the migrant crisis, calling her a

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<v Speaker 2>failed border czar. GOP Vice presidential candidate JD. Vance went

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<v Speaker 2>down to the southern border last week to make his point.

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<v Speaker 4>They stopped deportations on day one. They stopped construction of

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<v Speaker 4>the border wall on day one. We see the border

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<v Speaker 4>wall sitting here ready to be completed behind us, and

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<v Speaker 4>that can't happen because of Kamala Harris's administration.

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<v Speaker 2>There are seemingly endless court cases around immigration issues, but

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<v Speaker 2>one rule that's been litigated for almost a decade has

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<v Speaker 2>sort of flown under the radar, but now it's withstood

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<v Speaker 2>another federal appeals court challenge. The DC's Circuit Court has

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<v Speaker 2>okay to rule extending employment authorization to spouses of H

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<v Speaker 2>one B visa holders. Joining me is immigration law expertly

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<v Speaker 2>on Fresco, a partner at Holland and knight Lee, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think we need to start with a basic understanding

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<v Speaker 2>of what an H one B visa is and what

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<v Speaker 2>an H four visa is.

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<v Speaker 1>So an H to one B visa is a visa

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<v Speaker 1>that people can obtain in the United States if they

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<v Speaker 1>are providing what it's called high skill labor or what

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<v Speaker 1>is actually in the statute called a specialty occupation, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a job that requires at least a bachelor's degree

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<v Speaker 1>to perform as designated by the Department of Labor, and

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<v Speaker 1>the person has the exact specific degree required to perform

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<v Speaker 1>that job. So each year there's a lottery because there's

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<v Speaker 1>many more companies that want these visas that exist, and

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<v Speaker 1>there's eighty five thousand of these visas per year, and

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<v Speaker 1>so what happens is about seventy percent of them are

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<v Speaker 1>taken by people from India. Because of both the English

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<v Speaker 1>language and the large population and the amount of high

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<v Speaker 1>skilled education and training people from India tend to get.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the largest group of people who get it,

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<v Speaker 1>and so they come to the United States on these

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<v Speaker 1>Age one B visas, their spouses and their children can

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<v Speaker 1>come with them, and the name of their visa is

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<v Speaker 1>called an age four visa. So the principal worker is

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<v Speaker 1>on the H one B, the spouse and the children

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<v Speaker 1>are on the age four visa, And when you arrive,

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<v Speaker 1>the people on age four visas are not allowed to work.

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<v Speaker 1>But what happens is that the people then apply for

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<v Speaker 1>Green cards. And there was a regulation that the Obama

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<v Speaker 1>administration did in twenty fifteen that said that if an

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<v Speaker 1>Indian national and this is really only related to Indian

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<v Speaker 1>nationals at the beginning, Now it's related to a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of other people because what happened was there are only

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and twenty thousand employment based Green cards that

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<v Speaker 1>are permitted each year, and there are many many more

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<v Speaker 1>people in the pool waiting for green cards than are

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<v Speaker 1>permitted to apply each year. There's about a million people

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<v Speaker 1>in the backlog right now. And what makes it worse

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<v Speaker 1>is there's something called a per country limit on Green cards,

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<v Speaker 1>which means that any one country can only get ninety

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<v Speaker 1>eight hundred of the green cards each year, which means

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<v Speaker 1>that the Indian line is about two hundred years long.

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<v Speaker 1>It's really really long, and someone who gets in the

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<v Speaker 1>line now won't get a Green card. They will be

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<v Speaker 1>stuck here permanently on this quasi H one B status.

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<v Speaker 1>So what the Obama administration said is if you're stuck

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<v Speaker 1>in that status, your spouse can work. So that's what

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<v Speaker 1>this H four EAD case was about, was about this

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<v Speaker 1>Obama regulation from twenty to fifteen that said that the

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<v Speaker 1>spouses of people in this backlog, which is people who've

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<v Speaker 1>been approved for a Green card ostensibly because they meet

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<v Speaker 1>the criteria. They came on an H one B, but

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<v Speaker 1>they've been approved for a Green card as a matter

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<v Speaker 1>of merit, but they cannot receive the green card because

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<v Speaker 1>of the backlog, which is two hundred years long, so

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<v Speaker 1>they will never receive it. That the spouse of this

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<v Speaker 1>person who is an aged four can't work because what

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<v Speaker 1>they didn't want is people just permanently here in flux

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<v Speaker 1>with no rights. Ever, so the Obama administration did a

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<v Speaker 1>regulation that allowed these people to work. And then what

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<v Speaker 1>happens is a restrictionist group who ostensibly designated itself as

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<v Speaker 1>a labor union, but isn't really a labor you it's

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<v Speaker 1>more of an association of members of people who want

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<v Speaker 1>restrictionist trade policies called Safe Jobs USA file the lawsuit

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<v Speaker 1>saying that regulation was illegal.

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<v Speaker 2>This has been going on for nearly a decade, since twenty.

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<v Speaker 1>Fifteen, correct, This case has been going on in various iterations.

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<v Speaker 1>What happened was the lawsuit was filed in twenty fifteen,

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<v Speaker 1>it worked its way through the Trump administration. The Trump

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<v Speaker 1>administration was actually going to repeal the Obama regulation, but

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<v Speaker 1>because this lawsuit happened, they decided to just let this

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<v Speaker 1>lawsuit play out. Well, it's very interesting was an immigration

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<v Speaker 1>group called Immigration Voice, who represents the foreign nationals that

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<v Speaker 1>are in this backlog, intervened which prevented the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 1>from reaching a pollusive settlement with the folks who have

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<v Speaker 1>filed the lawsuit, because otherwise the Trump administration would have

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<v Speaker 1>just settled and said, you know what, this is illegal.

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<v Speaker 1>Were taking this away, but they couldn't because there was

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<v Speaker 1>an intervention by a group called Immigration Voice that allowed

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<v Speaker 1>this case to continue. So that group continued the case

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<v Speaker 1>and they kept getting ruling after ruling saying that the

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<v Speaker 1>regulation was lawful, until finally, in a different case called WASHTEC,

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<v Speaker 1>which was about a different policy called optional practical Training,

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<v Speaker 1>which allows people on student visus to work. The Supreme

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<v Speaker 1>Court basically said it is okay to create work permits

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<v Speaker 1>for certain classes of immigrants, meaning that this power has

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<v Speaker 1>been given by Congress to the administration. And because that's

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<v Speaker 1>been given by Congress, there are no several issues, there's

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<v Speaker 1>nothing to interpret. The law is very clear that the

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<v Speaker 1>administration can designate different pathways for work for people who

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<v Speaker 1>are illegally. That's not a question about people who are

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<v Speaker 1>here illegally. But the spy of an H one B

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<v Speaker 1>recipient is here legally, and so the question is can

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<v Speaker 1>they work. And the plaintiffs had said no, they can't

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<v Speaker 1>because there was no statute saying that they could specifically work.

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<v Speaker 1>But the Court held, and has now held many many

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<v Speaker 1>different times, most recently now the DC Circuit yet again,

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<v Speaker 1>after this Washteck case, has held yet again that there

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<v Speaker 1>is no Major Questions doctrine. There's no Chevron doctrine, there's

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<v Speaker 1>nothing here Low or Bride. None of these things apply

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<v Speaker 1>because there's a statue that, even though it doesn't say

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<v Speaker 1>that H four thousands can work, it says that the

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security can declare any legal immigrant ability

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<v Speaker 1>to work if they issue a regulation doing so, which

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<v Speaker 1>had been indeed done in this case.

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<v Speaker 2>This case seems to be the perfect example of endless

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<v Speaker 2>litigation going in circles. I mean, how does this case

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<v Speaker 2>keep going?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it keeps going because the Supreme Court itself hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>shut down this specific case. So what happened was this case.

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<v Speaker 1>It was denied on standing, Then the standing case was

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<v Speaker 1>brought back by the DC Circuit back to the district court.

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<v Speaker 1>Then it was granted on the merit. Then the case

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<v Speaker 1>was pending and stayed for the wash Tech case. I

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<v Speaker 1>was in the Supreme Court. Then the wash Tech case

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<v Speaker 1>was decided in favor of the administration's ability to give

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<v Speaker 1>work permits. Then the DC Circuit case was reopened, and

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<v Speaker 1>the plaintiff strikes to say, yeah, but that was just

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<v Speaker 1>this opt that wasn't eighty four, and they didn't consider

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<v Speaker 1>the major questions doctrine, and they didn't consider low per Bride.

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<v Speaker 1>And what the DC Circuit said is, look, we're shutting

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<v Speaker 1>this all down. None of these things have anything to

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<v Speaker 1>do with anything, because what you're saying is that there's

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<v Speaker 1>some interpretation going on, and there isn't. There's a very

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<v Speaker 1>clear statute that's in the Immigration and Nationality Act that

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<v Speaker 1>literally says that the Secretary of Homeland Security has the

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<v Speaker 1>ability by regulation to give any person who's here legally

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<v Speaker 1>a work authorization. And so because of that, there doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>need to be a specific statue that gives a specific

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<v Speaker 1>group of people a work permit. That's not needed because

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<v Speaker 1>the Congress already gave the authority very clearly nothing to

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<v Speaker 1>interpret for a regulation to be issued to give people

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<v Speaker 1>work authorization status.

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<v Speaker 2>And the decision here was written by a very very

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<v Speaker 2>conservative Trump appointee, Justin Walker.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, I mean, I think the point here is if

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<v Speaker 1>you really just look at the statute and now it's interpreted,

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<v Speaker 1>you could be very angry that Congress wrote that statute,

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<v Speaker 1>which is I think where the plaintiffs were in this case.

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<v Speaker 1>But you can't deny that that statue was written, and

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<v Speaker 1>so they were trying to get some sort of limitation

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<v Speaker 1>on it. But if you are a strict textualist, you

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<v Speaker 1>really have to read the strict text here, and that

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<v Speaker 1>text does permit the employment authorization to be done as

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<v Speaker 1>long as there's a regulation which does it. And the

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<v Speaker 1>Obama administration did do this regulation. In twenty fifteen, the.

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<v Speaker 2>Attorney for the group Saved Jobs USA said they're going

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<v Speaker 2>to petition the Circuit Court to rehear the case, which

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<v Speaker 2>would be your quest for an on bank hearing. And

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<v Speaker 2>if that fails, to appeal to the Supreme Court. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you think the Circuit Court would take it on bank?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think the Supreme Court?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think. I think given the caliber of the

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<v Speaker 1>judges that were on this three judge panel, there's no

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<v Speaker 1>way that the DC Circuit will take this on bank.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think the Supreme Court will do now, based

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<v Speaker 1>off of what it has done in the past, just

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<v Speaker 1>deny sirsiary because in these immigration cases where the government

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want circiary and you have a bipartisan panel the

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<v Speaker 1>DC Circuit, it's very unlikely that the Supreme Court will

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<v Speaker 1>grant sirchiar area. If they were going to do something,

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<v Speaker 1>they would have done it in the Washtec case, which

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<v Speaker 1>was a case where Justice Kavanaugh had when he was

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<v Speaker 1>a DC Circuit judge, I had actually argued the case

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<v Speaker 1>in front of us Kavanaugh back when he was in

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<v Speaker 1>the DC Circuit. He had thought, well, maybe it's a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit ridiculous, even though there's this statue to give

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<v Speaker 1>work permits to students because they should leave the country

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<v Speaker 1>once they're done being students once. They didn't take that

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<v Speaker 1>one apart, and they let that one say. Then this

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<v Speaker 1>other group, which is much more sympathetic, because they are

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<v Speaker 1>literally people here in limbo until they die, and either

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<v Speaker 1>they'll be allowed to work or not, it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be much more difficult to take those people's work authorizations away.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up next, I'll continue this conversation with Leon Fresco.

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<v Speaker 2>A federal judge demands that Texas sanda high ranking lawyer

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<v Speaker 2>in person to a hearing. None of that video conference stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg. I've been talking to immigration law expert

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<v Speaker 2>Leon Fresco of Holland and Knight about a DC Circuit

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<v Speaker 2>Court decision that okays the rule allowing spouses of H

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<v Speaker 2>one B visa holders to seek employment. It's a case

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<v Speaker 2>that's been going on for nearly a decade. And Leon,

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<v Speaker 2>how often does the H one B visa have to

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<v Speaker 2>be renewed?

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<v Speaker 1>It has to be renewed every three years. And if

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<v Speaker 1>they want to change employers, they actually have to get

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<v Speaker 1>a new employer to file a whole new petition. So

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people, you know, compare this program to

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<v Speaker 1>some form of indentured servitude because these people are literally

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<v Speaker 1>only allowed to remain in America so long as they're

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<v Speaker 1>useful to an employer. So when these folks turn seventy

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<v Speaker 1>or eighty, who knows what's going to happen to them?

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<v Speaker 1>Will they be allowed to say or not? Because if

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<v Speaker 1>they're not tied to an employer where they're currently working,

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be bad luck for them. And so

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<v Speaker 1>this whole program is careening toward human tragedies, but we're

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<v Speaker 1>not quite there yet, but we're getting there as each

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<v Speaker 1>year progresses.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, have these visas been caught up in the debate

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<v Speaker 2>over immigration.

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, there's a huge debate over what to do with

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<v Speaker 1>this population because this population keeps getting older and older.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the debate topics is, well, just get rid

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<v Speaker 1>of the per country limit so that at least everybody

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<v Speaker 1>has the same weight tign there isn't a two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>year weight time for Indians and a one year weight

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<v Speaker 1>time for everybody else. That bill has passed the House

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<v Speaker 1>and the Senate, but never in the same year, So

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<v Speaker 1>that's been a human disaster there, and then there's bills

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<v Speaker 1>that try to increase the total amount of green cards

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 1>per year, but those bills have never passed because at

0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 1>the moment there's been restrictionists, mostly in the Republican Party,

0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.400
<v Speaker 1>who have said they don't want to increase the levels

0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:54.560
<v Speaker 1>of legal immigration. But there's also been opposition in the

0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:58.400
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party saying you can't just do something unemployment based

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.280
<v Speaker 1>immigration if you're not going to to do something on

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:05.600
<v Speaker 1>the compassionate side of immigration. And so this is just

0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:09.440
<v Speaker 1>one of these huge messas that exists in the immigration system, Leeann.

0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:13.599
<v Speaker 2>I know that the Czech giants like Apple and Amazon

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:18.040
<v Speaker 2>and business groups support these visa programs, but the claim

0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:23.120
<v Speaker 2>is that these visa holders take jobs away from Americans.

0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:25.520
<v Speaker 2>Is that right grounded in fact?

0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, it just depends because here's what happens.

0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:34.400
<v Speaker 1>So oddly enough, the h one B immigrant is a

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.600
<v Speaker 1>person who's tied to a specific employer, but the work

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:41.200
<v Speaker 1>permit that this person's house gets is actually not tied

0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:44.280
<v Speaker 1>to any employer. So they're just people who go into

0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 1>the labor market. And so let's say that right now

0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 1>there's about three hundred thousand of these people in the

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:54.680
<v Speaker 1>workforce depending on what they're doing. If they're doing mostly

0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:58.360
<v Speaker 1>high skilled jobs, the job openings in the high skilled

0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:01.560
<v Speaker 1>area are still much more, much higher than the unemployment

0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 1>in that area. If you go on the lower end,

0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 1>it might be an argument, but the people who are

0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.320
<v Speaker 1>actually making this lawsuit are people who claim to be

0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 1>representing people on the higher end. And so that's where

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:16.720
<v Speaker 1>also this claim didn't really make sense from the perspective

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:21.080
<v Speaker 1>of the organization challenging the regulation because they were claiming

0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 1>that the higher end jobs were being taken away. So

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 1>they were assuming couples where both spouses were doing high

0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 1>skilled labor. But the point is, if that were the scenario,

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:34.120
<v Speaker 1>then three hundred thousand people is a drop in the

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:38.280
<v Speaker 1>bucket compared to the several million job openings that still

0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 1>exist in the high tech area.

0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.720
<v Speaker 2>So now let's switch to something that I can't believe

0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.360
<v Speaker 2>is still going on, the battle over Texas having put

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:51.080
<v Speaker 2>those floating buoys in the Rio Grant and the US

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:54.600
<v Speaker 2>government is suing to have the barriers removed. Didn't the

0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.920
<v Speaker 2>Supreme Court already decide this in part? Or is that

0:15:58.040 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 2>another border dispute with chexas well.

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Was actually brought back? What happened was here's the background.

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.600
<v Speaker 1>So Texas began employing these things and these booies. In

0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:11.200
<v Speaker 1>June of twenty twenty three, Texas spends one hundred and

0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.120
<v Speaker 1>fifty thousand dollars on the barrier. They put one thousand

0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:17.720
<v Speaker 1>feet buoys. Then in twenty twenty three, the Justice Department

0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:23.600
<v Speaker 1>sues in federal court and they actually win in the case,

0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.240
<v Speaker 1>and then the case goes up to the Fifth Circuit,

0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 1>and then it actually does go up to the Supreme Court,

0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:34.920
<v Speaker 1>and it goes back down saying here's some things you

0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:39.520
<v Speaker 1>need to consider. So there wasn't an actual final resolution there,

0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:42.920
<v Speaker 1>and then it goes back down to the district court.

0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 1>And in the district court they issue an injunction saying

0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.040
<v Speaker 1>that at the end of the day, this is a

0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:53.160
<v Speaker 1>threat to public safety. It needed to be done by

0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.440
<v Speaker 1>the Army Corps engineer. It wasn't approved by the Army

0:16:56.480 --> 0:17:00.920
<v Speaker 1>Corps engineer, so they issued an injunction. And then the

0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:04.880
<v Speaker 1>Fifth Circuit had actually also in a panel decision, had

0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:08.879
<v Speaker 1>affirmed that injunction and said you can't have the barriers.

0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:13.879
<v Speaker 1>But now the full unbank Fifth Circuit came back in

0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 1>and said, while this case is going to be decided

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:22.159
<v Speaker 1>on the merit of the federal government's claim. We don't

0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 1>think that when this case gets decided on the merits

0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:28.719
<v Speaker 1>that it's likely that the federal government is going to

0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.880
<v Speaker 1>win because we don't think that these booies are actually

0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:35.439
<v Speaker 1>in the navigable stretch of the Rio Grand River. So

0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 1>that's basically their decision is. They said, had these booies

0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:42.440
<v Speaker 1>been in a navigable stretch of the Rio Grand River,

0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:46.159
<v Speaker 1>then yes, it might have violated federal law. But we

0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:49.119
<v Speaker 1>think that when there's a trial on this, we're going

0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:51.479
<v Speaker 1>to find that the federal government is not likely to

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 1>prove that the barriers are placed in the navigable stretch

0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.560
<v Speaker 1>of the Rio grand and hence there's no violation of

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.120
<v Speaker 1>the federal law here. Now we're going to go back

0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:03.639
<v Speaker 1>to the trial and we're going to try to figure

0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.720
<v Speaker 1>out who wins on the issue of whether these buoys

0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.480
<v Speaker 1>are actually in navigable waters along the Rio Grande.

0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:14.400
<v Speaker 2>There was a hearing and the lawyer for Texas appeared

0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:18.199
<v Speaker 2>by videos, and the judge demanded that Texas send a

0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:21.160
<v Speaker 2>high ranking lawyer in person to the hearing and not

0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.479
<v Speaker 2>try to attend remotely. Quote it is clear to this

0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:28.720
<v Speaker 2>court that the State of Texas misunderstands the substance of

0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:32.320
<v Speaker 2>the status conference held in this matter. I mean, does

0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.120
<v Speaker 2>it really make a difference if a lawyer appears by

0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:37.040
<v Speaker 2>Zoom for hearings.

0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:39.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that at the end of the day, the

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:43.720
<v Speaker 1>problem is they want this case to be dealt with

0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:48.200
<v Speaker 1>in the level of seriousness that this case portends to be.

0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:52.440
<v Speaker 1>And so when you're coming in on Zoom, you're essentially

0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 1>saying that the State of Texas isn't really willing to

0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:59.560
<v Speaker 1>devote the resources to this case that are necessary, which

0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:02.359
<v Speaker 1>is then well, why are you filing this lawsuit? Then?

0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 1>So I guess that's the perspective. I mean, at the

0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:08.000
<v Speaker 1>end of the day, everybody can have a different take

0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:10.240
<v Speaker 1>on this. I mean, obviously you don't want the trial

0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:13.240
<v Speaker 1>to be done by Zoom, but you know, it does

0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:15.440
<v Speaker 1>pose an interesting question at the end of the day

0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:19.439
<v Speaker 1>about where we're going as a legal profession, and is

0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:23.359
<v Speaker 1>Zoom going to just be inexorably part of this going

0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:26.919
<v Speaker 1>forward or do we revert back to where we were originally,

0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 1>which is, hey, look, when you have court hearings, you

0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:31.760
<v Speaker 1>go to court. That's the whole point of court. It

0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:33.800
<v Speaker 1>is you go to court, and if you don't want

0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:36.159
<v Speaker 1>to go to court, don't have a case here, And

0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:38.080
<v Speaker 1>so it's an interesting question.

0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:41.040
<v Speaker 2>Well, we'll see what happens. I assume that the state

0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:44.200
<v Speaker 2>of Texas will send a high ranking lawyer as the

0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:47.879
<v Speaker 2>judge requested. And looking at the big picture here, leon,

0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:53.560
<v Speaker 2>does Kamala Harris have the same view on immigration that

0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:54.640
<v Speaker 2>Biden does?

0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:58.360
<v Speaker 1>Well, I do know, because I've actually been in conversations

0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:01.600
<v Speaker 1>with some folks in that group that they are looking

0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:04.600
<v Speaker 1>to create some policies that they are going to be

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:08.080
<v Speaker 1>rolling out during the campaign that will be sort of

0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:12.840
<v Speaker 1>prospective twenty twenty five through twenty twenty eight policies. I

0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:15.760
<v Speaker 1>don't know which ones of the ideas that they were

0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:19.239
<v Speaker 1>soliciting they're going to actually move forward for, but I

0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:21.920
<v Speaker 1>can I guess maybe break some news I don't know

0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:24.439
<v Speaker 1>whatever you would call this, that they are planning a

0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:28.360
<v Speaker 1>rollout of a twenty twenty five through twenty twenty eight

0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:32.280
<v Speaker 1>immigration agenda that would have different policies in it, both

0:20:32.600 --> 0:20:36.119
<v Speaker 1>on the enforcement side and on what they will do

0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:39.320
<v Speaker 1>about people coming in the country, So both kinds of things,

0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:43.520
<v Speaker 1>how they add to the enforcement platform and how they

0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:47.720
<v Speaker 1>change the current platforms by which people come in here

0:20:47.920 --> 0:20:52.560
<v Speaker 1>legally and receive benefits. And so from that perspective, they

0:20:52.600 --> 0:20:54.840
<v Speaker 1>will be rolling that out, but I don't know when,

0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:58.159
<v Speaker 1>and I don't know which policies specifically of the ones

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:01.440
<v Speaker 1>that were being discussed are they going to pick to

0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:03.800
<v Speaker 1>do that. But yet they will plan that.

0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:09.320
<v Speaker 2>Republicans are calling Harris the failed borders are. Do you

0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:13.119
<v Speaker 2>think she got a bad rap over her handling of immigration?

0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Well, so this is a tough question because the assignment

0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:21.920
<v Speaker 1>was not clear that was given to her, and quite frankly,

0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:25.000
<v Speaker 1>the assignment was a little bit strange always in my view,

0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:28.639
<v Speaker 1>from the first place, which was she was supposed to

0:21:28.800 --> 0:21:33.600
<v Speaker 1>solve the quote unquote root causes of why people from

0:21:33.880 --> 0:21:38.320
<v Speaker 1>specifically Alsavador, Honduras, and Guatemala want to come to the

0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:41.439
<v Speaker 1>United States. So that was technically her assignment. You know,

0:21:41.520 --> 0:21:45.320
<v Speaker 1>there's this words borders are and these other things, and

0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:48.360
<v Speaker 1>there was always a dispute about the wording. But even

0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:52.040
<v Speaker 1>the assignment as it is cast in a like most

0:21:52.119 --> 0:21:55.479
<v Speaker 1>favorably to her, didn't seem to make a lot of

0:21:55.520 --> 0:21:59.880
<v Speaker 1>sense to me from the perspective of you know, the GDPs,

0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:04.240
<v Speaker 1>those three countries are much much lower than even the

0:22:04.320 --> 0:22:08.800
<v Speaker 1>GDP in Mexico, much less the GDP in the United States,

0:22:09.200 --> 0:22:12.080
<v Speaker 1>And so to ever get to a point where anyone

0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:16.280
<v Speaker 1>in any of those countries would view remaining there as

0:22:16.320 --> 0:22:19.280
<v Speaker 1>a suitable alternative rather than coming to the US, it's

0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 1>just not realistic. That would have taken hundreds of billions

0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:27.320
<v Speaker 1>of dollars of investment. But having said that, what can

0:22:27.359 --> 0:22:31.359
<v Speaker 1>be argued, and it's not clear you know which part

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:34.919
<v Speaker 1>of who did what caused it, is that the numbers

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:38.800
<v Speaker 1>from those three countries coming across the border are now

0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:42.439
<v Speaker 1>lower than they have been, so that part is good.

0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:46.639
<v Speaker 1>And where the problems exist are in countries we can't

0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:52.160
<v Speaker 1>deport people back to, which are Cuba, eighty, Nicaragua, Venezuela.

0:22:52.320 --> 0:22:55.160
<v Speaker 1>Those are where the numbers continue to be challenging because

0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:58.160
<v Speaker 1>those countries do not accept people who're trying to deport

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:02.800
<v Speaker 1>them back to. But the numbers coming in at the

0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:08.320
<v Speaker 1>moment from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are indeed lower

0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:12.000
<v Speaker 1>than they were when he was first appointed to address

0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 1>issues related to those countries, So at LEAs from that perspective,

0:23:16.760 --> 0:23:20.720
<v Speaker 1>there's that one could argue the numbers are lower. You

0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:23.479
<v Speaker 1>decide whether he made them lower or not.

0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:26.240
<v Speaker 2>We are going to hear a lot of talk about

0:23:26.240 --> 0:23:30.239
<v Speaker 2>this until November. Thanks so much, Leon, As always, it's

0:23:30.240 --> 0:23:33.000
<v Speaker 2>a pleasure to have you on. That's Leon Fresco, a

0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:35.840
<v Speaker 2>partner at Hollanden Knight. Coming up next on the Bloomberg

0:23:35.920 --> 0:23:38.760
<v Speaker 2>Lawn Show, we'll take a look at which circuit courts

0:23:38.840 --> 0:23:42.480
<v Speaker 2>could be in play depending on who wins the presidency

0:23:42.920 --> 0:23:44.879
<v Speaker 2>and some of the issues that will be coming up

0:23:44.960 --> 0:23:48.160
<v Speaker 2>at the Supreme Court next term. You're listening to Bloomberg.

0:23:49.080 --> 0:23:53.200
<v Speaker 2>As we've learned by now, the presidential election will determine

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:57.679
<v Speaker 2>who sits on federal courts, and if either political party wins,

0:23:57.680 --> 0:24:01.280
<v Speaker 2>both the White House and the Senate, key appellate courts

0:24:01.440 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 2>could flip. Joining me to discuss which circuits are in

0:24:04.920 --> 0:24:10.640
<v Speaker 2>play is Matthew Shettenhelm, Bloomberg intelligence litigation analyst. So, Matt,

0:24:10.720 --> 0:24:16.000
<v Speaker 2>tell us right now, which circuits tilt Republican, which tilt democratic?

0:24:16.520 --> 0:24:20.240
<v Speaker 3>So right now, there's one circuit. If you're talking about

0:24:20.240 --> 0:24:24.680
<v Speaker 3>non senior judges. The first circuit is all Democrat judges,

0:24:24.720 --> 0:24:28.960
<v Speaker 3>six Democrat appointed judges and zero Republican appointed judges. But

0:24:29.119 --> 0:24:32.520
<v Speaker 3>it very much is the exception. A number of courts

0:24:32.520 --> 0:24:36.040
<v Speaker 3>are are fairly evenly split. But then on the other

0:24:36.160 --> 0:24:41.399
<v Speaker 3>extreme you have the Fifth Circuit, which has twelve Republican

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:45.760
<v Speaker 3>appointed judges and five Democrat appointed judges, and the eighth Circuit,

0:24:45.800 --> 0:24:49.800
<v Speaker 3>which has ten Republican appointed judges and just one Democrat

0:24:49.880 --> 0:24:54.440
<v Speaker 3>appointed judge. And so those two circuits have really loomed

0:24:54.880 --> 0:24:59.440
<v Speaker 3>large in recent litigation about regulation. Companies have been really

0:24:59.440 --> 0:25:04.080
<v Speaker 3>successful in getting cases placed in those circuits, the fifth

0:25:04.080 --> 0:25:07.320
<v Speaker 3>and A's circuits, and so to me, though standout is

0:25:07.359 --> 0:25:12.160
<v Speaker 3>particularly significant in the election in terms of potential changes

0:25:12.200 --> 0:25:13.320
<v Speaker 3>to the courts going forward.

0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:18.040
<v Speaker 2>The term is flip, so which circuits might flip from

0:25:18.200 --> 0:25:21.000
<v Speaker 2>Democratic to Republican if Trump wins.

0:25:21.560 --> 0:25:24.480
<v Speaker 3>So it's like the Second Circuit, the Third Circuit, the

0:25:24.600 --> 0:25:27.840
<v Speaker 3>Fourth Circuit, the seventh Circuit, the tenth, the eleventh Circuit,

0:25:27.920 --> 0:25:31.920
<v Speaker 3>all of those circuit courts the margin is two judges.

0:25:32.040 --> 0:25:35.200
<v Speaker 3>And when you're looking at appointed by Democrats or appointed

0:25:35.240 --> 0:25:38.640
<v Speaker 3>by Republicans. So aside from those courts that I mentioned

0:25:38.880 --> 0:25:42.760
<v Speaker 3>earlier that are tilted in one direction, a number of

0:25:42.760 --> 0:25:46.800
<v Speaker 3>our federal courts of appeals are fairly evenly split. I

0:25:46.880 --> 0:25:50.840
<v Speaker 3>think most of them tilt Republican right now, but the

0:25:50.880 --> 0:25:55.280
<v Speaker 3>margin is small, and so the stakes are really high

0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:58.800
<v Speaker 3>for the next president because there's the potential to turn

0:25:58.840 --> 0:26:01.159
<v Speaker 3>the majority on a number of those courts. And that

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:05.480
<v Speaker 3>matters because every Court of Appeals decision could potentially be

0:26:05.600 --> 0:26:10.280
<v Speaker 3>petitioned for rehearing by the full panel of judges at

0:26:10.280 --> 0:26:13.520
<v Speaker 3>that court on bank and so control of the court

0:26:14.160 --> 0:26:15.000
<v Speaker 3>is significant.

0:26:15.320 --> 0:26:17.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think people don't pay enough attention to the

0:26:17.600 --> 0:26:20.399
<v Speaker 2>circuit courts. They always talk about the Supreme Court, but

0:26:20.440 --> 0:26:24.400
<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court here is only about sixty cases a term,

0:26:24.480 --> 0:26:27.000
<v Speaker 2>and it's less and less as time goes on. So

0:26:27.440 --> 0:26:30.840
<v Speaker 2>so major decisions are really made in these circuit courts,

0:26:31.640 --> 0:26:35.399
<v Speaker 2>right has the Second Circuit, which is in New York,

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:37.800
<v Speaker 2>has that ever tilted Republican?

0:26:38.160 --> 0:26:41.480
<v Speaker 3>That goes past my knowledge. I don't know the whole

0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:43.560
<v Speaker 3>history of it right now, but yet that is on

0:26:43.600 --> 0:26:47.879
<v Speaker 3>the list of you know, one judge separating the two party,

0:26:48.000 --> 0:26:53.399
<v Speaker 3>seven judges nominated by Democrats, six nominated by Republicans. So

0:26:53.440 --> 0:26:57.440
<v Speaker 3>the margin's really really thin right there. And so that's

0:26:57.640 --> 0:27:00.320
<v Speaker 3>the sort of example where you could see a change

0:27:00.359 --> 0:27:03.800
<v Speaker 3>going forward based on the results of who wins the

0:27:03.800 --> 0:27:06.920
<v Speaker 3>presidency who wins control of the Senate, and that court is.

0:27:07.000 --> 0:27:10.840
<v Speaker 2>Very important as far as business cases in Wall Street.

0:27:11.200 --> 0:27:15.840
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, yes, absolutely, a number of business cases are decided

0:27:15.880 --> 0:27:16.440
<v Speaker 3>in that court.

0:27:16.680 --> 0:27:19.119
<v Speaker 2>This was a year that we saw the Supreme Court

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:24.240
<v Speaker 2>basically attack the administrative state a lot of decisions on regulation.

0:27:24.560 --> 0:27:27.480
<v Speaker 2>And do you see more of that continuing next year?

0:27:27.480 --> 0:27:29.200
<v Speaker 2>Are they going to switch to something else?

0:27:29.600 --> 0:27:34.080
<v Speaker 3>Yes, It's unlikely that the conservative majority at the Court

0:27:34.200 --> 0:27:36.359
<v Speaker 3>is going to change in the next four years. Right now,

0:27:36.400 --> 0:27:39.480
<v Speaker 3>we have a six to three majority of justices that

0:27:39.520 --> 0:27:43.080
<v Speaker 3>were appointed by Republican presidents, and as you said, they

0:27:43.160 --> 0:27:49.720
<v Speaker 3>have really been aggressive in sort of pro business decisions,

0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:54.800
<v Speaker 3>very skeptical of regulatory overreach, and I really don't think

0:27:54.880 --> 0:27:57.800
<v Speaker 3>that's going to change. I guess in one sense there's

0:27:58.000 --> 0:28:01.800
<v Speaker 3>a chance for slight changes. And the two oldest justices

0:28:02.240 --> 0:28:06.600
<v Speaker 3>at the Supreme Court, Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito,

0:28:06.680 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 3>are two Republican appointed justices who are very skeptical of

0:28:11.080 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 3>regulatory overreach, have supported the decisions on do the Chevron doctrine,

0:28:15.560 --> 0:28:18.280
<v Speaker 3>for example. They are the two oldest and so I

0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:21.439
<v Speaker 3>think both parties would be interested in replacing them. A

0:28:21.480 --> 0:28:26.200
<v Speaker 3>Republican president with younger versions of themselves, a Democrat president

0:28:26.440 --> 0:28:29.960
<v Speaker 3>with very different justices. But even if you did replace

0:28:30.080 --> 0:28:33.359
<v Speaker 3>those by a Democrat president, still a six to three margin.

0:28:33.440 --> 0:28:36.040
<v Speaker 3>So I think you're not going to see the trend

0:28:36.080 --> 0:28:40.000
<v Speaker 3>in the court's overall change. It's at least pretty unlikely

0:28:40.560 --> 0:28:41.720
<v Speaker 3>over the next four years.

0:28:42.160 --> 0:28:46.800
<v Speaker 2>There are several key disputes involving the financial sector that

0:28:47.080 --> 0:28:48.720
<v Speaker 2>may reach the Supreme Court.

0:28:48.880 --> 0:28:53.840
<v Speaker 3>Yes, my colleague Elliott Stein has really highlighted these cases.

0:28:54.000 --> 0:28:57.880
<v Speaker 3>Cases involving coinbase have been percolating through the lower courts,

0:28:58.480 --> 0:29:02.240
<v Speaker 3>a case involving CFPB credit card late fees. There is

0:29:02.280 --> 0:29:05.960
<v Speaker 3>the potential for a number of regulatory cases to reach

0:29:06.000 --> 0:29:06.719
<v Speaker 3>the High Court.

0:29:06.880 --> 0:29:09.520
<v Speaker 2>Do you see many tech cases going to the Supreme Court?

0:29:09.840 --> 0:29:10.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:29:10.120 --> 0:29:12.480
<v Speaker 3>I mean, we just came off a term where the

0:29:12.520 --> 0:29:16.600
<v Speaker 3>Supreme Court decided a pretty significant First Amendment case about

0:29:16.600 --> 0:29:21.480
<v Speaker 3>whether Texas and Florida can force social media platforms to

0:29:21.560 --> 0:29:25.760
<v Speaker 3>be neutral. And the Court said no, that the First

0:29:25.760 --> 0:29:29.960
<v Speaker 3>Amendment does give these companies some rights to block regulation

0:29:30.120 --> 0:29:33.520
<v Speaker 3>like that, But the Court said very little about exactly

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:37.600
<v Speaker 3>how and how broadly the First Amendment blocks regulation. And

0:29:37.640 --> 0:29:40.959
<v Speaker 3>this is a huge question right now as the federal

0:29:41.000 --> 0:29:44.000
<v Speaker 3>government is looking at regulating tech companies as states are

0:29:44.000 --> 0:29:46.560
<v Speaker 3>looking at doing it, and the companies are responding saying no,

0:29:46.640 --> 0:29:48.280
<v Speaker 3>the First Amendment blocks.

0:29:47.880 --> 0:29:48.400
<v Speaker 1>All of that.

0:29:48.840 --> 0:29:51.560
<v Speaker 3>The question is is that really right? And this is

0:29:51.560 --> 0:29:55.000
<v Speaker 3>a question the Supreme Court didn't quite answer this term.

0:29:55.200 --> 0:29:57.640
<v Speaker 3>It started to answer it, But there are so many

0:29:57.760 --> 0:30:00.800
<v Speaker 3>unanswered questions about how far the first Moment goes, how

0:30:00.880 --> 0:30:03.920
<v Speaker 3>much regulation is okay? And it's going to be our

0:30:03.960 --> 0:30:07.760
<v Speaker 3>Supreme Court in the next four years that answers those

0:30:07.840 --> 0:30:12.960
<v Speaker 3>questions and resolves how far can regulators go in addressing

0:30:13.280 --> 0:30:15.160
<v Speaker 3>harms that are linked to the Internet.

0:30:15.520 --> 0:30:18.480
<v Speaker 2>What about chech media and telecom regulation?

0:30:19.200 --> 0:30:22.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so, I mean that's another area where I think

0:30:22.520 --> 0:30:25.920
<v Speaker 3>the FCC there's been a fight for the past twenty

0:30:26.000 --> 0:30:30.080
<v Speaker 3>years about can the FCC regulate broadband service or not?

0:30:30.640 --> 0:30:33.640
<v Speaker 3>This is the most important products that AT and T

0:30:33.960 --> 0:30:38.040
<v Speaker 3>and Comcast and Verizon Charter they offer today. Is that

0:30:38.120 --> 0:30:41.840
<v Speaker 3>subject to federal regulation at all? And I think with

0:30:42.040 --> 0:30:45.800
<v Speaker 3>this Supreme Court, you saw the Chevron decision earlier and

0:30:45.920 --> 0:30:49.000
<v Speaker 3>just building on that, it's going to be so difficult,

0:30:49.200 --> 0:30:54.520
<v Speaker 3>I think for companies to be regulated in ways that

0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:59.240
<v Speaker 3>Congress hasn't clearly said are appropriate. The broadband companies are

0:30:59.280 --> 0:31:02.240
<v Speaker 3>a great again example of that. And so as long

0:31:02.320 --> 0:31:05.719
<v Speaker 3>as the control of the Supreme Court remains as it

0:31:05.840 --> 0:31:09.640
<v Speaker 3>is with a six to three very business friendly majority,

0:31:09.880 --> 0:31:13.720
<v Speaker 3>I think it's very good news for companies like these

0:31:13.760 --> 0:31:18.560
<v Speaker 3>broadband companies that could otherwise face substantial federal regulation. It's

0:31:18.680 --> 0:31:21.480
<v Speaker 3>just not going to happen with this Supreme Court in place.

0:31:21.600 --> 0:31:25.440
<v Speaker 3>Unless Congress stepped in and Congress really struggles to reach

0:31:25.480 --> 0:31:28.360
<v Speaker 3>consensus on any sort of aggressive regulation like this.

0:31:28.560 --> 0:31:32.480
<v Speaker 2>Would there be a big difference if Republicans take control

0:31:32.560 --> 0:31:33.880
<v Speaker 2>of the FCC.

0:31:34.640 --> 0:31:36.880
<v Speaker 3>I think that would sort of just speed up what

0:31:36.920 --> 0:31:39.920
<v Speaker 3>the courts are already doing. So, you know, to take

0:31:39.960 --> 0:31:43.479
<v Speaker 3>the net neutrality of rules for example, that the Biden

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:49.080
<v Speaker 3>FCC has tried to restore broadband regulation. Aggressive federal broadband

0:31:49.120 --> 0:31:52.080
<v Speaker 3>regulation that's in the courts right now. In the Sixth

0:31:52.120 --> 0:31:55.320
<v Speaker 3>Circuit is one of those conservative leaning courts. I think

0:31:55.360 --> 0:31:57.800
<v Speaker 3>it's going to face a lot of trouble getting through

0:31:57.840 --> 0:32:00.360
<v Speaker 3>the Sixth Circuit and then you know, probably the US

0:32:00.400 --> 0:32:04.040
<v Speaker 3>Supreme Court. But if the Republicans win the White House

0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:07.560
<v Speaker 3>and thus control of the FCC, they'll just undo it themselves.

0:32:07.560 --> 0:32:09.360
<v Speaker 3>They don't even have to wait for the courts, and

0:32:09.400 --> 0:32:12.520
<v Speaker 3>so it's just another way that businesses that are concerned

0:32:12.520 --> 0:32:15.040
<v Speaker 3>about regulation can benefit in the near term. I think

0:32:15.160 --> 0:32:17.840
<v Speaker 3>if they don't win in the courts, a Republican controlled

0:32:17.840 --> 0:32:20.640
<v Speaker 3>the FCC will usher in the win itself.

0:32:21.040 --> 0:32:24.560
<v Speaker 2>Let's talk about TikTok because I think it's so interesting

0:32:24.960 --> 0:32:28.760
<v Speaker 2>because of the difference that it might see between a

0:32:28.920 --> 0:32:32.600
<v Speaker 2>democratic and a Republican president. So, first of all, explain

0:32:33.040 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 2>where we stand with TikTok, the bill that Biden signed.

0:32:36.880 --> 0:32:40.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, absolutely so. Earlier this year, both chambers of Congress

0:32:40.720 --> 0:32:45.120
<v Speaker 3>passed a law that effectively bans TikTok as of January

0:32:45.200 --> 0:32:48.720
<v Speaker 3>nineteenth next year, unless the company divests to someone else,

0:32:48.720 --> 0:32:50.440
<v Speaker 3>and the companies saying, look, we're not going to do that,

0:32:50.560 --> 0:32:52.720
<v Speaker 3>and there's no way we can practically do that. So

0:32:53.240 --> 0:32:57.480
<v Speaker 3>the only way that TikTok remains viable in the United

0:32:57.480 --> 0:33:01.400
<v Speaker 3>States after January nineteenth is if Tiko wins this court

0:33:01.480 --> 0:33:05.080
<v Speaker 3>case it's brought to challenge the law, and TikTok says

0:33:05.080 --> 0:33:08.560
<v Speaker 3>that it's a violation of the First Amendments what Congress

0:33:08.600 --> 0:33:11.160
<v Speaker 3>did to force it to divest the company, and we're

0:33:11.160 --> 0:33:14.040
<v Speaker 3>going to get a decision this year from the DC

0:33:14.160 --> 0:33:16.960
<v Speaker 3>Circuit and maybe from the US Supreme Court on whether

0:33:17.200 --> 0:33:21.520
<v Speaker 3>TikTok's right or whether Congress can ban the company unless

0:33:21.520 --> 0:33:23.560
<v Speaker 3>it divests former President Trump.

0:33:23.720 --> 0:33:27.080
<v Speaker 2>He was against TikTok when he was president, now he's

0:33:27.440 --> 0:33:32.960
<v Speaker 2>for TikTok. What kind of change could his becoming president

0:33:33.240 --> 0:33:36.400
<v Speaker 2>mean for TikTok outside of the court case.

0:33:36.600 --> 0:33:39.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's a great question. So I think it's unlikely

0:33:40.400 --> 0:33:43.280
<v Speaker 3>that President Trump, if he wins the White House, is

0:33:43.680 --> 0:33:47.640
<v Speaker 3>going to convince Congress to make a new law and

0:33:47.880 --> 0:33:51.360
<v Speaker 3>undo the ban that it already did. So I don't

0:33:51.440 --> 0:33:53.880
<v Speaker 3>think he would change it in that sense. This law

0:33:53.960 --> 0:33:57.600
<v Speaker 3>is already on the books. It passed by overwhelming majorities

0:33:57.680 --> 0:34:00.520
<v Speaker 3>in both the House and the Senate with Republican and

0:34:00.680 --> 0:34:04.640
<v Speaker 3>Democrats support, and so this is done, I think unless

0:34:04.720 --> 0:34:08.360
<v Speaker 3>TikTok wins in court. If TikTok wins in court by

0:34:08.440 --> 0:34:11.120
<v Speaker 3>January nineteenth, and the DC Circuit or the Supreme Court

0:34:11.200 --> 0:34:13.399
<v Speaker 3>sends it back to Congress and says, no, the First

0:34:13.440 --> 0:34:17.560
<v Speaker 3>Amendment problems here, try again, that's when President Trump being

0:34:17.600 --> 0:34:21.640
<v Speaker 3>the president really matters, because then if Congress goes to

0:34:21.680 --> 0:34:25.000
<v Speaker 3>try again and fix the problems, that the courts identify,

0:34:25.360 --> 0:34:28.040
<v Speaker 3>President Trump doesn't have to sign that law, and so

0:34:28.200 --> 0:34:31.760
<v Speaker 3>that's where it could end up getting tripped up. Whereas

0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:34.680
<v Speaker 3>if it's the Democrats that control the White House. President

0:34:34.680 --> 0:34:38.239
<v Speaker 3>Biden was a strong advocate for this TikTok bill, and

0:34:38.320 --> 0:34:41.399
<v Speaker 3>it seems very likely that a President Kamala Harris would

0:34:41.440 --> 0:34:43.480
<v Speaker 3>be as well. I at least have no reason to

0:34:43.520 --> 0:34:46.480
<v Speaker 3>think she would depart from President Biden's view on this.

0:34:46.719 --> 0:34:50.000
<v Speaker 3>So in that sense, if TikTok can win this first

0:34:50.080 --> 0:34:53.080
<v Speaker 3>round of the case, having President Trump in the white House,

0:34:53.320 --> 0:34:56.200
<v Speaker 3>maybe it's best chance to avoid a band in the

0:34:56.239 --> 0:34:57.080
<v Speaker 3>US going forward.

0:34:57.360 --> 0:35:01.080
<v Speaker 2>It seems like TikTok has some pretty good arguments in

0:35:01.120 --> 0:35:04.040
<v Speaker 2>its case. Have you looked at who has the better

0:35:04.080 --> 0:35:05.040
<v Speaker 2>side of that case?

0:35:05.160 --> 0:35:08.640
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's a really fascinating case, and I think it's

0:35:08.680 --> 0:35:12.239
<v Speaker 3>a really close case. TikTok says, Look, Congress has never

0:35:12.320 --> 0:35:16.040
<v Speaker 3>done anything like this, spanning a popular app used by

0:35:16.080 --> 0:35:19.759
<v Speaker 3>one hundred and fifty million Americans. So this is a

0:35:19.840 --> 0:35:23.359
<v Speaker 3>violation of our free speech rights as a company, It's

0:35:23.400 --> 0:35:26.000
<v Speaker 3>a violation of the free speech rights of all the

0:35:26.160 --> 0:35:30.040
<v Speaker 3>users on our platform. And basically arguing that the Congress

0:35:30.160 --> 0:35:33.560
<v Speaker 3>burdened much more speech than was necessary. It could have

0:35:33.640 --> 0:35:38.480
<v Speaker 3>done something much less disruptive than an effective ban. It

0:35:38.520 --> 0:35:42.000
<v Speaker 3>could have regulated, it could have entered into an agreement

0:35:42.200 --> 0:35:45.160
<v Speaker 3>with TikTok to mitigate the risk, but instead it took

0:35:45.280 --> 0:35:48.520
<v Speaker 3>sort of what the company casts as a very extreme step.

0:35:48.640 --> 0:35:50.719
<v Speaker 3>On the other side, that the government comes back and says, no,

0:35:50.920 --> 0:35:54.960
<v Speaker 3>this is a national security threat. TikTok's parent is located

0:35:55.040 --> 0:35:59.000
<v Speaker 3>in China, and China can access anything from a company

0:35:59.000 --> 0:36:02.440
<v Speaker 3>that's that's located, and this company has all sorts of

0:36:02.520 --> 0:36:06.280
<v Speaker 3>data about Americans, and it can control what Americans can see.

0:36:06.440 --> 0:36:08.799
<v Speaker 3>That's a national security threat. Courts don't like to get

0:36:08.840 --> 0:36:11.560
<v Speaker 3>in the middle of national security issues, so both sides

0:36:11.600 --> 0:36:14.839
<v Speaker 3>have really strong argument. My take on it is that

0:36:15.280 --> 0:36:18.279
<v Speaker 3>I think the courts are going to force Congress to

0:36:18.320 --> 0:36:20.239
<v Speaker 3>try again on this. I think they're going to say, look,

0:36:20.239 --> 0:36:22.440
<v Speaker 3>you went pretty fast on this, and I think you

0:36:22.440 --> 0:36:25.000
<v Speaker 3>should take a harder look to make sure you didn't

0:36:25.040 --> 0:36:29.240
<v Speaker 3>burden more speech than necessary. Ultimately, I think the government

0:36:29.239 --> 0:36:31.520
<v Speaker 3>can win this case, but I think the courts are

0:36:31.520 --> 0:36:33.560
<v Speaker 3>going to want to go a little more slowly here.

0:36:33.640 --> 0:36:36.360
<v Speaker 3>Even though it's a national security threat. The government admitted

0:36:36.520 --> 0:36:39.719
<v Speaker 3>in its brief that there isn't evidence that China has

0:36:39.840 --> 0:36:44.720
<v Speaker 3>actually surveiled this data or manipulated but there's a risk,

0:36:44.880 --> 0:36:47.759
<v Speaker 3>and so I think that creates an opportunity for the

0:36:47.760 --> 0:36:50.040
<v Speaker 3>court to kind of slow this down a little bit

0:36:50.480 --> 0:36:52.880
<v Speaker 3>and make sure the First Amendment is honored. But I

0:36:52.880 --> 0:36:54.920
<v Speaker 3>think ultimately the government can win this. I think there

0:36:54.920 --> 0:36:57.759
<v Speaker 3>are real risks to TikTok going forward. I just think

0:36:57.760 --> 0:36:59.800
<v Speaker 3>it might win this first round of the case and

0:37:00.120 --> 0:37:03.200
<v Speaker 3>duck this January nineteenth deadline that's coming pretty quickly.

0:37:03.239 --> 0:37:06.120
<v Speaker 2>Now, a lot to watch in the upcoming months. Thanks

0:37:06.160 --> 0:37:11.080
<v Speaker 2>so much, Matt. That's Bloomberg Intelligence Litigation analyst Matthew Shettenhelm.

0:37:11.480 --> 0:37:14.120
<v Speaker 2>And that's it for this edition of the Bloomberg Law Podcast.

0:37:14.480 --> 0:37:16.839
<v Speaker 2>Remember you can always get the latest legal news by

0:37:16.880 --> 0:37:20.719
<v Speaker 2>subscribing and listening to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

0:37:21.000 --> 0:37:24.839
<v Speaker 2>and at Bloomberg dot com, slash podcast, Slash Law. I'm

0:37:24.920 --> 0:37:27.360
<v Speaker 2>June Grosso, and this is Bloomberg