1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Mike Jackson, he's the 7 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 1: CEO of Auto Nation. Um, I'm not going to say 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: one of the biggest car dealers in the world. Is that? 9 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: Is that true globally? Mike? Are you guys one of 10 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 1: the biggest in the world. Well, if there's life on 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 1: other planets, we might not be being be the biggest 12 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: in the universe. But um, yeah, I think we are. 13 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: I think we are, and we arned to your point. 14 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: I mean, think about it. We did seven billion dollars 15 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 1: worth of revenue in the second quarter this year, and 16 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: the environment for vehicle sales is very good. You and 17 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: I talked about it a year ago where I said, 18 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: you know, with this pandemic and shelter in place, America 19 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: is reasserting sense of independence and they want to decide 20 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: where they go when they go and how they go 21 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: and they want a personal vehicle. So demand is strong 22 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: and automation's performance within that environment is exceptional. Is it 23 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: difficult to get UM inventory? Well, on the new vehicle side, 24 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: there's no question that the manufacturers had a tremendous challenge 25 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: to restart production, and I have to tip my hat 26 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: to them. And then earlier this year they really got 27 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: hit with the shortage on microchips. But I would point 28 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: out our shipments in the second quarter doubled from a 29 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: year ago, are only six to seven percent down from UM, 30 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: but demand is far far higher. So it's not that 31 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: the industry can't make anything. Uh, it's that this earlier 32 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: point that I made, that demand is very strong for 33 00:01:55,720 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: vehicles and that's both new and preoped. So give the center, 34 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: having you know, a little bit of a hindsight, are 35 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: you surprised that the O E M s had that 36 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: production difficulty still have that production difficulty, that that perhaps 37 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: this just in time inventory may not maybe too finely tuned, 38 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 1: that a chip shortage of all things can halt Detroit, Well, 39 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: it is halting the world. So yes, the entire just 40 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: in time production system is being rethought because the relative 41 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: cost of a chip versus the disruption to production is 42 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 1: tremendously out of whack, and they're having meetings right now 43 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: saying why shouldn't we have more of this, more of 44 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,119 Speaker 1: these chips on hand. That you can't, you can't bring 45 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 1: the whole thing uh to such a disrupted state. So 46 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 1: that that is a fair point. UH. What no one 47 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: foresaw though, is that again going back to this god 48 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: awful pandemic TOI. Consequences came out of that the consumer reorder, 49 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: reoriented parking book towards their home. They wanted more space, 50 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: larger space with more electronics, and they wanted personal vehicles, 51 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: both of which demand chips. So the demand for chips 52 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 1: went up in the housing electronics industry at the same 53 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: time one up in the avnable bull industry, and therefore 54 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 1: we have this chip shortage. You can't build these microchip 55 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: factories from one day to the next. They're extremely complex. 56 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: And that then also asked another whole strategic question, should 57 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: we be so dependent America on microchips coming out of 58 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: Southeast Adia? Is this really where we want to be 59 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: as a country. So all of that's being rethought and 60 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: rediscussed as a consequence of this pandemic. Well, and we're 61 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: you know, taking on a ton of debt in order 62 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: to um figure out what's going on here on a 63 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: national level. On a company level, you guys are just 64 00:03:57,320 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: killing it right now. And makes me, uh, you know 65 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: under in a buyer's market, you're just struggling and competing 66 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: and maybe you're borrowing to try and or our margins 67 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: are getting hit right now. Um, you know these are 68 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 1: good times for you. Are you taking advantage of that too? 69 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:19,280 Speaker 1: You know, um, somehow retrench somehow reorganized somehow you know. 70 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: I mean, you have the money now, so are you 71 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 1: Are you looking to change the business a little bit? 72 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: While while we're in the will, while you have the 73 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: gravy train, I feel like we're doing more than running 74 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 1: the gravy train. But there's no question in the environment 75 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: for vehicles is good, and there's no question that automation 76 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: is outperforming tremendously in that positive environment. And we've done 77 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 1: it all. We've dramatically increased revenue with our brand and 78 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: our customer experience on our digital platform. We use the 79 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: digital platform to take out costs. Uh, We reduced by 80 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 1: We're doing a much larger business with several thousand fewer 81 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: employees because our digital tool are so strong and so capable. 82 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: We have aggressively led the market in uh supplying our 83 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: our stores with pre owned vehicles when we saw the 84 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 1: swords coming in new vehicles. Imagine our pre owned business 85 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: on a revenue basis is up six year over year. Yeah, 86 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 1: I would say that's grabbing the opportunity. Mike. I'd love 87 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: to get your thoughts. I mean, nobody has you know, uh, 88 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: you know, greater feel for where the consumer is, the 89 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 1: auto buying consumer is right now, just give us your 90 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 1: thoughts on this whole e V transition. How do you 91 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 1: think it will proceed? Are you ever going to convince 92 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: a you know, Matt Miller to go electric? I'm not 93 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 1: sure I have to. So the inflection point for the migration, 94 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 1: let's use that word. It's not a stampede, it's a migration. Uh. 95 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 1: Despite all the headlines from the internal combustion engine two 96 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: electric battery electric vehicles is underway. So let me put 97 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: that in some sort of perspect though. If I go 98 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: out to which is a long time away, I think, okay, 99 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: of what's sold new will be all electric, uh, and 100 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,919 Speaker 1: the vehicles and operation in the United States six seven 101 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: will be all electric. So this is not like going 102 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: from the flip phone to the smartphone, where you throw 103 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 1: one thing away. The internal combustion engine vehicles have a 104 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: lifespan of twenty five years something like that. Are going 105 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 1: to be have a useful life that somebody will pay 106 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: for them and are of value to them. But I'm 107 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: also not in denial. We love of electric vehicles. We're 108 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: gonna sell electric vehicles. We offer them from all the manufacturers. 109 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: They have great stuff coming. But it's going to be 110 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: a gradual migration, not a stampede. Yeah, I mean, I'm 111 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: still I'm gonna get there eventually, but I'm waiting for, 112 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: you know, the new raptor to come out. The raptor 113 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: are to come out. I want to get there. You've 114 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: got that hummer. I could even maybe talking into that 115 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 1: Humber at all electric converse. Well well well wait, well wait, 116 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 1: I just need one more big V eight and then 117 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 1: I'm gonna switch switch over. But Mike, it's always great 118 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: to talk. I just bought my last V twelve, and 119 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 1: the last one made I'm very happy V twelve. That's 120 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 1: that's on another level. But of course, your stocks at 121 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: an all time high. So you can do that, Michael Jackson. 122 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 1: There you see of Auto Nation stock trading right now 123 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: at a hundred and seven dollars and fifty three cents, 124 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: as I said, in an all time high. It's but 125 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: it's an incredible chart to look at. Um. And because 126 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: the business has done so well, I'm always looking on 127 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: the on the website. Uh. And there is drive Electrified 128 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: right there on the website. So they are definitely pushing 129 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: and selling those cars. This is Bloomberg, Matt. When I 130 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: was on the South side, boy, you had to get 131 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh at least once a year to see the 132 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: good folks at Federated Federator at Hermes. Now I would 133 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: tend to do it during a baseball or hockey season. 134 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: I can catch a game. R J. Galli, Senior portfolio manager, 135 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: head of the bond group at Federator Hermi's he joins us. 136 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: I was an equity guy, r J. So I never 137 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: bothered you. But boy, I look at the tenure one 138 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: point to zero percent. What do you make of this 139 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: treasury market right here? Well, good morning, and I have 140 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 1: my glasses on so I can see. Um. You know, 141 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: it's been brutal. Uh. You know, Frankly, we as a firm, 142 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: especially the duration pot which on the chair of and 143 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: we sort of assess what we think are the likely 144 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: drivers of raids and position accordingly within our actively managed 145 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: fixed income funds. We've had a pretty significant short on 146 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: for for what I would say has been a painful 147 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: pain trade. Um. I think initially markets moving, Yeah, exactly, 148 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: markets have trouble moving. When everybody's position to one side 149 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 1: of the boat, you know, it moves the boat, and 150 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: so some of that is is just the sort of 151 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: the way markets work. I think it's clearly been inflamed, however, 152 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: by the fact that there was some sense that we're 153 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: moving past COVID. The delta variant uh was was not 154 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: ppping up on the UK, but it's certainly crept up 155 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 1: on the United States and then in the last number 156 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,839 Speaker 1: of weeks. Um. That's not the only factor, though, you know, 157 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 1: the US has been a pretty good place to put 158 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: money for yield for foreign investors if you hedge out 159 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: the f X risk again or Euro based investors getting 160 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: much higher yields here than they are on their home markets. 161 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: So there's been reasons that capitals found its way to 162 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 1: our shores. We felt that that would be a temporary 163 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: technical boost to treasury prices and pushing yields down. UM. Now, 164 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 1: you know, with the delta variant, it's it's been a 165 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: little humbling. We had a pretty good confidence that our 166 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: call was gonna work, uh drive driven by inflation and growth, 167 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: and then there's a lot of headwinds to it right now. Yeah. 168 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 1: I was talking to UM a portfolio manager this morning 169 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 1: who was saying, you know, people should maybe buy treasuries 170 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: as a hedge, as insurance in case everything goes wrong. 171 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: But that has to be terrifying to do, especially at 172 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: the long end, you know, because if then all of 173 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 1: a sudden um rates rise a hundred basis points, you're 174 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 1: out twenty percent of your capital. If he was talking 175 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: about t buills where you're not taking a lot of 176 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: price risk, I think he's got a point. But I'm 177 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,719 Speaker 1: with you. Like to buy ten year or thirty year 178 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: treasuries as insurance, that's insurance that could sort of burn 179 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 1: you up if you don't have the house fire. I mean, 180 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 1: that's just not prudent. Our vue has been all along 181 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: that even though real yields now, have you have returned 182 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: to you know, basement levels the ten year tips right 183 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: now that are negative hundred and eleven basis points. The 184 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 1: economy is not in that basement. These really yields fundamentally 185 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: should not preside for much longer. That's right. GP Morgan says, 186 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: these yields indicate an expectation of only a half percent 187 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: GDP growth of the next twelve months, even though the 188 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,959 Speaker 1: JP Morgan analysts who said that expect more than three 189 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: and a half percent of GDP growth over the next 190 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: twelve months. So what's Yeah, there's a huge disconnect I 191 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: think between what is what is an intact economic recovery 192 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: with huge supports from fiscal policy that's still being spent, 193 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,320 Speaker 1: but albeit out of diminishing rates, And this idea of 194 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: peak growth makes very little sense if you look at 195 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: the charts for forty years. It is true that when 196 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: you hit peak growth in an economic recovery, thereafter rates 197 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,719 Speaker 1: tend to somewhat decline. But all those other periods, really 198 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: yields were astronomically positive and high. You know, we are 199 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: at a period now where really yields are shockingly low 200 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 1: and negative. So attaching that explanation to this seems to 201 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 1: be a bit of a reach. I think really this 202 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: started is technical and now has become a concern. Is 203 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 1: the COVID nightmare is still all very fresh in our 204 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: minds and it's not yet over. I do think some 205 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: of it is capital flows, some of it is foreign flows, 206 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 1: A good bit of it is shortcovering and pain trade. 207 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: We still like being short, but I have to admit 208 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: it's been humbling. We're looking for an opportunity to reassess 209 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: at somewhat higher yield than today that make more sense 210 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: in you know, the medium term, than what we've seen 211 00:11:57,520 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: on our screens right now. It feels it feels like 212 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 1: a kind of the momentum e type market here are 213 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: j Is Is there something that you guys are looking 214 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:09,439 Speaker 1: forward to perhaps reverse that momentum? Is it a data point? 215 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 1: Is it perhaps an incremental positive data point on the 216 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 1: delta variant? Is it something technical? What are you looking 217 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 1: forward to perhaps turn this thing around? Well? Up till 218 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:24,599 Speaker 1: even today, we've been feeling that in that repeated inflation 219 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: prints will convince enough in the market that they need 220 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: greater compensation for the inflation risk, which is clearly biased 221 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: to the upside. That the transitory argument will apply to 222 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:38,199 Speaker 1: many components of the c p I and pc PC, 223 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: but not enough of them and inflation will be too 224 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: strong relative to the Fed Zone expectations. That's a narrative. 225 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: I think Powell almost has come around to their acknowledging 226 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: that inflation risk is to the high side, and they're 227 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: saying if it doesn't prove to be the translatory, they 228 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: may act differently. So we felt that the inflation data, 229 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 1: just the drumbeat of continued inflation, would sort of cast 230 00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:00,040 Speaker 1: a shadow over the transitory argument and help reest that 231 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: yields to somewhat higher levels than where they are today, 232 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: still not record levels. We thought that maybe the tenure 233 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: would be closer to it with a one seventy uh 234 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,959 Speaker 1: come the end of you know, the third quarter, maybe 235 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: two percent by the end of the year, and we 236 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: haven't thrown the talent on that. I do feel that 237 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: the delta variant story as we head into the fall, 238 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: I know it's still very much summer, but when you 239 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,599 Speaker 1: start getting more and more people inside, we need the 240 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 1: vaccination to take the narrative back, and right now the 241 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 1: vaccination narrative is on the wayne and instead we're having 242 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: more political controversy over vaccines and you're seeing lower vaccinated 243 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 1: areas get more cases, and possitalizations have picked up. While 244 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 1: we're on bitcoin, let's talk about TikTok. They launched a 245 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: new resumes program in here in the US, enabling people 246 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 1: to post job resumes, job pitches, or job well, I 247 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: guess like apply for jobs with videos. Angie Hannah joins us. 248 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: She's the global Chief Talent Office or for our g A. 249 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: And this is kind of like a new era I 250 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: guess that we're entering. I would think you don't take 251 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: somebody seriously if they give you a TikTok resume video. 252 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 1: But I guess you know, I'm just too old, Angie, 253 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: is this legit? It's it's funny that you you say that, 254 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: because I have the same reaction at first, Um, and 255 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 1: thought would I even do such a thing since I 256 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: have my nine year old begging for TikTok all the time. However, Um, 257 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: as I looked into it a lot further, it's I 258 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: think it's a pretty brilliant idea. What for me? It 259 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: really allows companies to engage in a meaningful way. Um, 260 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: I think it will be for more of the gen z. However, Um, 261 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: I've had a couple of different people since TikTok launched 262 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: this reach out to me different platforms to talk about 263 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: more integrative ways of hiring. And so I think that 264 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: this is this could be a you know, a place 265 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: where people could get niche career advice. They also can 266 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: really show who they are, which is what I love 267 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: about it. People can be really authentic and resumes, there's 268 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 1: so much about what you've done versus what you can do. 269 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 1: But I think I think this is I think it's 270 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 1: it's a really interesting way for companies to engage with talent. 271 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: It does actually show who you are. Though you know, 272 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 1: I have to say growing up um here in New 273 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: York and in the Great State of Ohio and then 274 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: moving to New York, I was always taught that you 275 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 1: don't include a picture with the resume because you don't 276 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: want that to influence. Now, in Europe, it's a standard 277 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: part of your Yeah, at least in Germany it's it's 278 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: it's it's standard. But of course everybody in Germany looks 279 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: the same. Right, are there going to be any issues 280 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: with that? You think? You know, that's it's a good question. 281 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: I think time will tell um you're right. Standard practice 282 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: wasn't to have a picture on there. I think now 283 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: more than ever, with all the things going on in 284 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: the world. UM, I don't think it's a I don't 285 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 1: think it's a bad thing at all. I do think 286 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: it allows people to be more authentic and actually show 287 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: some of their you know there yourself, Angie. UM, I'm 288 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: just gonna hear the markets here, the dow off just 289 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: about eight points here, we keep two point two. And 290 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: let's talk about just hiring in general. Here we Matt 291 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 1: and I hear from company CEOs all the time that 292 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: they have a hard time, uh, finding people to fill slots. 293 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: Is it as simple as just paying people more money? Now? 294 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: Good question. We you know, my industry we're seeing seeing this, UM. 295 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: It's it's not about just paying more money at all. 296 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: People After what we've gone through in the last year 297 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 1: and a half, people want choice, they want flexibility. We're 298 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: still in a pandemic, you know. Let's be honest, and 299 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: I think after the last year and a half, people 300 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: have spent a lot of time UM thinking about what 301 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: what they want to do. And even within our own organization, 302 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: we've seen an uptick in our internal mobility program. People 303 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: wanting to UM switch careers all together, moving into a 304 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 1: different departments. And so I think I think we're gonna 305 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: have to. Companies are really going to have to not 306 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 1: only give that flexibility, but create more choices and more 307 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,360 Speaker 1: opportunity for people. And money is something we're also seen. 308 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 1: And they want to work remotely and they want to 309 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 1: you know what they want. They want your boss to 310 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: be nice to you. I read a story today about 311 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: some boss said, you know, he had a gun to 312 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: his employees heads. Obviously he didn't. Really, that's a figure 313 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 1: of speech. When I was a kid, that's what your 314 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,719 Speaker 1: boss said to you. Apparently now that's considered bullying and 315 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 1: it creates I can't remember. They call a toxic culture. 316 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 1: Toxic culture. That's bad, right, that is bad. It is bad, yes, 317 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: and it is. It is happening more and more. Um that. Yes, people, 318 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,439 Speaker 1: do you want more of that flexibility? Again, it's we 319 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 1: everybody's been working from home over zoom or you know 320 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,719 Speaker 1: whatever platform people use, and and so yes, they do 321 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: want some different, uh, different opportunities and they do want 322 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,719 Speaker 1: to see um an environment where they can thrive. And 323 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: you know, I have to agree, I think you get 324 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: the best set of people when you're not holding a 325 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 1: gun to their head. And so I think I think 326 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: that companies shifting a little bit more to a growth mindset. 327 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: It's probably what we could call that. Just get over 328 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 1: right now to Lewis. Navalier is the chairman, CEO and 329 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 1: c i O of Navalier and Associates, And I guess 330 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: you know the most important thing. Well, I'd like to 331 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: ask you what is the most important thing to focus 332 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,640 Speaker 1: on this earning season, because it seems like especially companies 333 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 1: that have stable margins that can pass on input costs, 334 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: that can deal with inflation are doing best correct, and 335 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: the ones that provide strong guidance are definitely going to 336 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,880 Speaker 1: be rewarded. You know, this is peak sales and arrange 337 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,640 Speaker 1: momentum because of easy ear year comparisons. But those few 338 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: stocks that will sustain strong sales arens momentum um should 339 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: break out as leaders. I expect the market to them 340 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: more narrow, more fun, the night focused and um. You know, 341 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: we're very fortunate where we have three weeks of very 342 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 1: strong earnings coming out now and that should help the 343 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 1: market turn here. All right, when you get a day 344 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: like today, Louis, you know again we're off two point 345 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 1: three on the DOW, on on the SMP healthy one 346 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: day short term pullback or are you're reading anything more 347 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 1: into this? Well, I have to watch the volume. If 348 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:20,479 Speaker 1: the volumes high, it's going to continue. But we've been 349 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,199 Speaker 1: in an asselin market for some time, so what I 350 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,360 Speaker 1: expect is we might get a reversal, maybe as late 351 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 1: as the last hour today. UM. A lot of it 352 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: also depends on the e t F world. You know, 353 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: E t s do trade at premiums and discounts, and 354 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: if those discounts today starting to widen a bit, that 355 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,919 Speaker 1: will cause a panic in the e t F world. 356 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: And so we don't want to see that because then 357 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 1: the market would feed on itself. But you know, the 358 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: market to maut of crowd, we just have to exhaust 359 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 1: the selling pressure. So it will be interesting to see 360 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: how long it lasts. I mean how much. If I 361 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: look at treasury yields at one seventeen, if I look 362 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: at you yields, it negative one point one percent or 363 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:06,159 Speaker 1: even lower. Right now, that just freaks me out, you know, 364 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 1: because like JP Morgan says, um, that means the bond 365 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: market and these are supposed to be the smart guys, 366 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: right this is the smart money. That's what we said 367 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: in the in the eighties and the nineties. This is 368 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 1: a smart money. The air forecasting economic growth of zero 369 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: point five percent over the next year. So is that 370 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: part of the sell off? Uh well, it's clearly the 371 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 1: short term oasis. Okay, but yeah, we're all freaked out 372 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 1: that inflation spikes and an interest rate spell that's not normal. Um. 373 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 1: I was personally freaked out by Thursday's producer price index 374 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,439 Speaker 1: because it was service costs and those costs aren't going 375 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,679 Speaker 1: to back off. So although we have oil and lumber 376 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,399 Speaker 1: and some other commodity costs back enough, the core rate 377 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: inflation is going to be suvenly high, and I don't 378 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be as transitory as that said wants. 379 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 1: The other thing is we're definitely entering and menteur. Our 380 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: government is doing what Europe's doing, and the problem is 381 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: that means we may be on the road to negative rates, 382 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: and uh so there's a flight for yield. Um. You know, 383 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 1: the corporate demand for bonds is unbelievable, and I've been 384 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 1: saying that, you know, corpor heels mighty being shoving Trevor 385 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 1: Kurgie Oels Lolla but nothing makes any sense right now. 386 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,360 Speaker 1: But when the dust settles, stocks are great buy and 387 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,120 Speaker 1: of course the stock market heels more than the bonds 388 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: and socks are still at tax avenge. All right, Louis, 389 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 1: I've been trying to get my colleague Tom keenan entry 390 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,920 Speaker 1: point into this market. So when you get some of 391 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 1: those panic phone calls, which you may get on a 392 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: day like today, do you tell folks to say, hey, 393 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,880 Speaker 1: we're still constructive on this market. Look, this is as 394 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: as perhaps a buying opportunity. What do you what do 395 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: you say? I tell the and I do have those 396 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 1: calls today, um, and I had some last week. I 397 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 1: tell everybody that UM in social buying pressure to add 398 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 1: last week after the inflation numbers. And I tell everybody 399 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: the shorts love to try to use the strong stocks 400 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 1: just before it needs to come out, but when er 401 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 1: needs to come out, they'll run for cover and we'll 402 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 1: be sorting all this out there very quickly. So, UM, 403 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 1: you know, we are glossy over sold right now. So 404 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 1: we're going to bounce and the marketstantially awfully, So if 405 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: you're brave, you can jump in today otherwisely for the 406 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: volume and then jump in. So the market. I mean 407 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 1: by the dip has been a strategy that works well, Um, 408 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: you've been a winner if you've been pacting that strategy. 409 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 1: But UM short treasuries hasn't. What do you do in 410 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: fixed income? You do? Dividend growth is what you do. 411 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,239 Speaker 1: You can get a yield of three four um. Uh, 412 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,640 Speaker 1: you want to buy stocks at double the divends every 413 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: six seven years, so that could be you know, Costco, 414 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 1: Kroger Sgate Technology. You know, there's plenty of stocks out 415 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 1: there that you that have very nice shields and then 416 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: are going to continue to grow their dividends. But do 417 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 1: you think that we're going to see UM treasuries yields 418 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: continue to fall if we are doing modern monetary theory, 419 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 1: which is unlimited money printing. Yes. And uh. I asked 420 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: at Ardini that personally a few weeks ago, because you know, 421 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: I subscribe to services and he admitted that we are 422 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 1: doing mode montery theory us and when we're gonna have 423 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: negative rates and he couldn't a grass that yet and 424 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: I don't think any of us can. But look what 425 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: happened and your look how Britain resisted negative rates and 426 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 1: now their rates are negative. Thanks for listening to the 427 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:39,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 428 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 429 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller V three. 430 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: On ball Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before 431 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,400 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg 432 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 1: Radio