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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent coverage.

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Speaker 3: That is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday,

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Speaker 2: have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 3: What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do.

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Speaker 1: We're going to take a look at a few aspects

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Speaker 1: of the Kamala Harris defeat. First of all, she did

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Speaker 1: give her concession speech, so we have a little bit

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Speaker 1: of that. Also some of the various competing theories of

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Speaker 1: what exactly went wrong. Also a lot of finger pointing

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Speaker 1: people on both sides of the like Biden Democratic Party,

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Speaker 1: like his staffers versus the Harris staffers and the Obama staffers.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of blame flying around, including people who

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Speaker 1: are still I knew this would happen, credulously, like geez,

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Speaker 1: we shouldn't ditch Biden. One that was as wild wild

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Speaker 1: to imagine that that could be the case. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: we'll dig into all of that. We're also going to

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Speaker 1: have David Serota on of course of lever news. Bernie

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Speaker 1: Sanders put out a really scathing rebuke of the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party echoes, you know, some of the things I've been saying,

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Speaker 1: some of the things others have been saying about where

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Speaker 1: they went wrong, and very curious to get Serota's take

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Speaker 1: on that. And there's also been a funny development of

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Speaker 1: people like David Brooks now being like, gee, maybe Democrats

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Speaker 1: need like their own Bernie Sanders style disruptive movement.

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Speaker 4: It's like, dude, you were a core part of.

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Speaker 1: Destroying that movement, crushing it, salting the earth and making

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Speaker 1: sure that there's no vestige of it less left to

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Speaker 1: be resurrected. And of course, even if it were to be,

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Speaker 1: we know David Brooks would be at the vanguard of

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Speaker 1: once again doing the same exact thing. So anyway, excited

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Speaker 1: to talk to David Serota about all of this, forgive.

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Speaker 2: Us his thoughts, forgive us for a more truncated, spontaneous,

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Speaker 2: extemporaneous show. Today all of us are still from all

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Speaker 2: of the sleep deprivation over the last couple of days.

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Speaker 3: We're going to do our best here.

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Speaker 2: Let's start, I think with the Kamala Harris speech, so

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Speaker 2: control and please go ahead and get that queued up,

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Speaker 2: and we will take a listen to some of the highlights.

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Speaker 2: I watched the entire thing, and we'll break it down after.

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Speaker 2: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 5: And historian once called a law of history true of

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Speaker 5: every society across the ages. The adage is only when

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Speaker 5: it is dark enough can you see the stars. I

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Speaker 5: know many people feel like we are entering a dark time,

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Speaker 5: but for the benefit of us all I hope that

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Speaker 5: is not the case. But here's the thing, America.

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Speaker 4: If it is, let.

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Speaker 5: Us fill the sky with the light of a brilliant,

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Speaker 5: brilliant billion of.

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Speaker 4: Stars, the light.

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Speaker 5: The light of optimism, of faith, of truth and service.

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Speaker 3: At you and made that.

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Speaker 6: Work guide us, even in the face of setbacks, toward

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Speaker 6: the extraordinary promise of the United States of America.

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Speaker 5: I thank you all.

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Speaker 6: Make God bless you, and may God bless the United

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Speaker 6: States of America.

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Speaker 4: I thank you all.

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Speaker 2: About as perfect as an end to the campaign as

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Speaker 2: we could get.

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Speaker 3: There. In that concession speech, Crystal.

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Speaker 2: Pablom and whatever the hell that was. The star stars to.

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Speaker 1: Me are very like twenty sixteen resistance, and you know,

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Speaker 1: I just I don't think that the energy from the

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Speaker 1: Democratic base is going to be quite the same because

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Speaker 1: I mean, for when they're exhausted, right, yeah, and for

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Speaker 1: number two. You know, back in twenty sixteen, it felt

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Speaker 1: very much it felt like it could be just a

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Speaker 1: one off.

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Speaker 4: Yes, like a fluke.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you had the Komi thing and Hillary was a

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Speaker 1: bad candidate and Russian interference and whatever. Now it's like, okay, no,

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Speaker 1: this this wasn't a fluke. By the way, people people

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Speaker 1: aren't just rejecting Democrats.

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Speaker 4: They're doing that.

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Speaker 1: They're also embracing this particular candidate. I mean, he outperformed

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Speaker 1: every Republican on the ballot, So let's reckon.

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Speaker 4: With that too and what that says.

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Speaker 1: But you know, on the on the Democratic side, I

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Speaker 1: see Lisbon Warren put out like kind of a similar

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Speaker 1: vibe of statement that was like, let's not point fingers,

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Speaker 1: just like when is the time to point fingers?

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Speaker 4: If not right now?

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Speaker 2: Like Matt Stolar had a great tweet he was like, actually,

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Speaker 2: right now is the exact right time?

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Speaker 3: Correct fingers? And for recruit Yeah, bitter recruitment.

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Speaker 1: Like that's like, now is the time your party has

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Speaker 1: been burned down to the ashes.

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Speaker 4: Yes, thoroughly repudiated in.

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Speaker 1: State after state, county after county, demographic group after demographic

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Speaker 1: group across the country. And there's no one to blame.

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Speaker 1: There's no one, you know, there's no boogeyman out there

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Speaker 1: that you can just point your finger at and say, oh,

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Speaker 1: it was there, it was their fault. So you know,

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Speaker 1: now is the time to try to learn those lessons.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I like, I think that they will

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Speaker 1: learn all the wrong lessons. I think that's already we

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Speaker 1: see them moving in that direction. But the other piece

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Speaker 1: with Kamalo's speech, I'm curious your thoughts. Like, I think

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Speaker 1: she's delusional enough to believe that she's still part of

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Speaker 1: the future of the.

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Speaker 3: Dem That's actually what I wanted to highlight.

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Speaker 2: So an important part of her speech actually was her

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Speaker 2: really laying the groundwork for the possible future run.

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Speaker 3: So I have a direct quote here Kamala.

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Speaker 2: While I concede this election, I do not concede the

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Speaker 2: fight that fueled this campaign.

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Speaker 3: And she says, I'm so proud of the race that

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Speaker 3: we ran the way that we ran it.

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Speaker 2: We have been intentional about building community and building coalitions,

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Speaker 2: but the most important was really about the not conceding

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Speaker 2: the fight and continuing or not. I'm conceding election, not

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Speaker 2: conceding the fight. And I really do think that she

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Speaker 2: is trying to position herself as a future of the resistance.

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Speaker 2: And this is actually a very stupid bet in my opinion,

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Speaker 2: because it's, like you just said, the quote unquote resistance

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Speaker 2: is not going to be the same last time around.

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Speaker 2: They had two pillars that they could correctly cling to, right, Sorry,

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Speaker 2: one was correct, the other was bullshit. The first one

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Speaker 2: was the popular vote and the one off things. Right,

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Speaker 2: I mean that's fair, right. It actually didn't win the

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Speaker 2: popular vote. Hillary did, so they could talk about that.

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Speaker 2: They're like, well, it wasn't a rejection of us, It

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Speaker 2: was just a couple of ways the swing stay Trump

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Speaker 2: is a one off et cetera.

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Speaker 3: Number two also it was Russiagate.

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Speaker 2: Is they were like, this is fundamentally like an illegitimate president.

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Speaker 2: But if you so, obviously Russiagate turned out to be bullshit.

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Speaker 2: And also, frankly, the entire like this is a one

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Speaker 2: off thing is also.

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Speaker 3: Turned out to be bullshit.

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Speaker 2: So when you put those two things together, she is

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Speaker 2: making a very incorrect bet. Let's be very honest here.

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Speaker 2: This is a candidate who has performed worse than Hillary Clinton, right,

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Speaker 2: this is a candidate who was thoroughly rejected by the

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Speaker 2: popular vote and a landslide victory in the electoral college.

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Speaker 2: You know, in the British system, somebody like her, it's over.

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Speaker 3: You resign, You're gone.

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Speaker 2: You know, at best, you pop up somewhere for constabulatory

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Speaker 2: or whatever they call it over there.

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Speaker 3: And that's it.

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Speaker 2: You're just some backbencher and we never hear about you again. Fundamentally,

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Speaker 2: it's an incorrect bet because it's, like you just said,

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Speaker 2: the liberal mind and all that is both exhausted from

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Speaker 2: eight years of quote unquote resistance, but also there is

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Speaker 2: a baseline acceptance this time of the Trump victory and

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Speaker 2: of the thesis that this is. You know, Peter Baker

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Speaker 2: over at the New York Times, he's a guy I respect,

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Speaker 2: he does a pretty good job, and he was like, look,

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Speaker 2: elites made a fundamental bet that Trump is not who

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Speaker 2: we are. And he's like, actually, this is Donald Trump's America,

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Speaker 2: and we are the ones who don't know what the

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Speaker 2: hell is going on. It's kind of a trite take,

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Speaker 2: but fundamentally like what Kamala is betting on in terms

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Speaker 2: of her resistance, it cannot look like her because her

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Speaker 2: style of politics so thoroughly failed. Her entire theory of

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Speaker 2: quote unquote resistance was incorrect from basically the entire time around.

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Speaker 3: So whatever does.

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Speaker 2: Come next, obviously there's going to be a lot of

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Speaker 2: soul searching it like that inside of the party. But

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Speaker 2: she cannot seek the nomination again because her electoral track

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Speaker 2: record now is two times failure. She failed in the

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen Democratic primary. She did not win or even

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Speaker 2: get close to the Iowa caucuses because of how she

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Speaker 2: flamed out for some reason, mostly because of like twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty BLM craziness. She gets selected as the vice presidential pick,

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Speaker 2: one of the worst modern picks obviously, I think we

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Speaker 2: can say, and then there's no primary system. That happens,

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Speaker 2: and she runs a terrible campaign in addition to having

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Speaker 2: inherit the baggage of Joe Biden, and she loses in

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Speaker 2: a historic margin like it is over and in any

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Speaker 2: modern sense of like how these things should go, it

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Speaker 2: cannot be allowed. Now, the big question is whether Democratic

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Speaker 2: elites will allow this nonsense, because right now all the

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Speaker 2: recriminations are on Joe Biden, which we'll get to, but

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Speaker 2: I haven't seen enough of Kamala herself and her own

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Speaker 2: role in it. So she seems to think that she

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Speaker 2: can just coast on it was Biden's fault that I lost.

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Speaker 3: Well not you know mine.

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Speaker 1: I've been saying the whole time that Democrats are never

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Speaker 1: going to run a woman again, right, and I do

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Speaker 1: think like the first woman president is going to be

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Speaker 1: a Republican, Like, I think that that is pretty clear

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Speaker 1: at this point. But I mean, I agree with all

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Speaker 1: the critiques of Kamala's campaign, right, I mean, the thing

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Speaker 1: I've been saying is like too much Mark Cuban and

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Speaker 1: Liz Cheney and not enough Sean Faine and Bernie Sanders.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: But I also I think it's sort of unfair to

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Speaker 1: lay all the blame at her feet, because that would

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Speaker 1: it would almost be too easy to just look at like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you made this tactical wrong decision, you gave this tactically

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Speaker 1: wrong answer, all that thing, all of that is, you know,

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Speaker 1: worthy of debate and discussion, et cetera. But there's a

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Speaker 1: deeper problem with the Democratic Party, and you know, the

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Speaker 1: medium term issue is that they even though they claimed

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Speaker 1: to be fighting for democracy, they're actually very scared of democracy,

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Speaker 1: which you see both in the refusal to have a

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Speaker 1: democratic primary this time around, in the refusal to have

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Speaker 1: like even an open convention after Joe Biden drops out

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Speaker 1: of the race. If you go back further, you see

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Speaker 1: it in the crushing of the Bernie Sanders movement, you know,

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Speaker 1: an organic democratic movement that sprung up that they moved

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Speaker 1: heaven and earth to make sure that they crushed and

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Speaker 1: put their finger on the scales and bring the primaries

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Speaker 1: back in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 4: And if you think about it.

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Speaker 1: You know, the last time that they actually allowed a

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Speaker 1: democratic process to play out was two thousand and eight

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Speaker 1: with Obama and Hillary. They got the candidate that the

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Speaker 1: you know, the Democratic base actually wanted, and lo and

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Speaker 1: hold turned out that guy was a really good politician

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Speaker 1: and he won two terms and probably if you'd been

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Speaker 1: allowed to run for more, probably would have continue to win.

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Speaker 1: And I say this not as the biggest fan of Obama,

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Speaker 1: but just you know, respect of his particular political talent.

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Speaker 1: So there's a democracy problem in the Democratic Party. I

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Speaker 1: don't see I really don't see anyone reckoning with that.

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Speaker 1: But there's also an ideological problem in the Democratic Party,

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Speaker 1: and you know, Kama is a reflective of that ideological problem.

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Speaker 1: Neoliberalism has been rejected. The right has offered, through trump Ism,

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Speaker 1: their vision and their story about what went wrong and

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Speaker 1: what to do next. The left offered out of Occupy

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Speaker 1: their own version of that story of you know, who

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Speaker 1: was to blame, what went wrong, and how to fix it,

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Speaker 1: and it was compelling. It was compelling to a lot

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Speaker 1: of the very same people who now are supporting Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: including a like Joe Rogan being the sort of like,

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Speaker 1: you know, figurehead of that shift. But many Listino voters,

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Speaker 1: many working class voters, et cetera. And you know, I

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Speaker 1: would love to fantasize that, oh, now they're they're going

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Speaker 1: to realize the error of their ways, and they're there's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a new movement that springs up.

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Speaker 4: But I just don't believe.

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Speaker 1: It, because they've already crushed that movement so thoroughly. The

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Speaker 1: people who previously we're a part of it, many of

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Speaker 1: them are gone. They're disillusion they're even either like just

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Speaker 1: liberals now or they're on the right, and so I

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Speaker 1: don't know, like there is no less to speak of

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Speaker 1: that could recreate that energy.

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Speaker 4: That's where we are.

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Speaker 1: One thing saga I wanted to get your view on

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Speaker 1: is let's put this incumbent party graphic up on the screen.

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Speaker 4: Guys. The second element that we have here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is very important.

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Speaker 1: This is this is important, and it is an important

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Speaker 1: part of the story of what went wrong here. This

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Speaker 1: is Derek Thompson tweeted this out. He said, for the

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Speaker 1: first time since World War Two, every governing party facing

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Speaker 1: election in a developed country this year lost vote share

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Democrats are the red dot absolutely critical

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Speaker 1: context to any post mortem, and I think that is true.

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Speaker 1: But I also think that you can use that to

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Speaker 1: just explain away the failures of Kamala herself, the Democratic Party,

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Speaker 1: the ideology underlying, you know, because that's the other thing

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Speaker 1: is like, well, what is the what we're the governing

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Speaker 1: parties that were rejected, many of them were many of

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Speaker 1: them were, you know, neoliberal parties, and it's one more

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Speaker 1: reflection of the fact that the public is done with

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Speaker 1: an ideology that is has you know, been proven to

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Speaker 1: be broken, you know, putting markets above human beings and

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Speaker 1: you know, individual values, and Democrats have failed to recognize

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Speaker 1: that this has been rejected and they have to offer

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Speaker 1: a different story in a different ideology.

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Speaker 2: Let's go through that list is actually very important. So

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Speaker 2: we have the British Tories, right, the Tories basically abandoned

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Speaker 2: all of the spirit of Brexit and pursued like market

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Speaker 2: based Brexit, whatever that is under Richie Sunac.

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Speaker 3: Just to start with trust, I mean even Bojo who.

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Speaker 2: Actually had a lot of respect for Boris back in

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Speaker 2: the day because he, I mean he got himself elected

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Speaker 2: Mayor of London. That's not exactly the easiest thing. And

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Speaker 2: they have lect freaking Sadikon then goes on to become

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Speaker 2: like this very dynamic figure. But he that's the farm,

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Speaker 2: you know, all throughout COVID in the post Brexit era

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Speaker 2: on this like market managed Brexitism. It eventually evolves into

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Speaker 2: Liz Tross after his own failure, and then of course

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Speaker 2: Rishi Sunak and in all cases like they abandon the

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Speaker 2: spirit of Brexit in the first place, which was about immigration,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't just about the market. And so what happens

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Speaker 2: is that the Reform Party under Nigel Faraj now surges

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Speaker 2: takes all the energy away from the Tories and leads

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Speaker 2: to an immediate Labor victory. But in Tory or sorry,

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Speaker 2: in the UK, it's not an accident that even though

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Speaker 2: Starmer may have gotten himself elected, he's almost immediately as

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Speaker 2: unpopular as the Tories, like what are we doing here them?

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Speaker 1: And they also with Corbin brushed there, oh, they absolutely

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Speaker 1: left version of Bernieism too.

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Speaker 2: And so in both cases, like what you really have

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Speaker 2: is you had the establishment forces in both the Tories

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Speaker 2: and inside of Labor that try and crush them and

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Speaker 2: keep the country on their you know, on this like

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Speaker 2: one track direction. But the voters just keep saying, they're like, no,

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Speaker 2: this is not what we are asking for. They also

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Speaker 2: point to well Emmanuel Macrone and his you know fall apart,

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Speaker 2: you know, really there Macron bet the farm in twenty

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Speaker 2: seventeen on like French they call it like jubiterarianism or

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Speaker 2: something is basically like you know, call this like Napoleonic

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Speaker 2: centrist figure. And he saw France as like the head

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Speaker 2: of this liberal democratic European Union. And the French of course,

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Speaker 2: like you know, even though they kind of keep electing him,

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Speaker 2: they also just keep grasping in different directions. And it's

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Speaker 2: not a surprise that the you know, basically socialist leftist

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Speaker 2: Coalition and LAPENN have basically been battling it out ever

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Speaker 2: since that happened. Again, it's the same fight that's happening

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Speaker 2: over there. Theirs is actually way more intense than ours,

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Speaker 2: or about the soul of France, about who we are,

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Speaker 2: and it's about immigration, and it's also really about the

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Speaker 2: like the future of their own welfare state and also

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Speaker 2: have their own conception of themselves, whether they want to

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Speaker 2: be like a French like liberal neoliberal managed economy or

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Speaker 2: they want to return to, you know, the roots that

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Speaker 2: they've always had in their country. They even point to

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Speaker 2: the Japanese Liberal Democrats, which frankly is kind of an

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Speaker 2: interesting one. I don't know a ton about Japan. I'll

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Speaker 2: be there in two weeks, so I'm actually excited to learn.

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Speaker 2: But you know, that Liberal Democratic Party there actually lost

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Speaker 2: as parliament terim majority for that first time in fifteen years, and.

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Speaker 3: The other's I mean, that's another thing about Japan.

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Speaker 1: Japan on all the countries that they pulled about, like

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Speaker 1: how do you feel about Donald Trump. Israel was number one. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they fucking love Donald Trump and Israel.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I think Japan.

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Speaker 1: Was like towards the top of the list, a large

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Speaker 1: like pro Trump sentiment in Japan.

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Speaker 2: Look, Japan, it's not a secret. This is a very

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Speaker 2: conservative society. And I don't mean this in like the

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Speaker 2: Christian Stanse so I think some of them are Christian.

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Speaker 2: But look, I mean, you know, in terms of gender

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Speaker 2: equality and their own like what they view is like

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Speaker 2: masculine and feminine ideals. Also in terms of their economy

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Speaker 2: and all of that actually aligns very very much with

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Also, Shinze Abbe and Trump were great friends

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Speaker 2: and they had a very good relationship in the past.

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Speaker 3: What makes sense.

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Speaker 2: But I guess the point in all of these cases

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Speaker 2: is that you have very highly developed societies like Japan,

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Speaker 2: like the UK, even like France, but also you know,

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Speaker 2: the newer ones like in India where Narrara Modi also

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Speaker 2: lost you know, some of his ground despite being one

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Speaker 2: of the most popular figures.

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Speaker 3: I also would point to one of our own neighbors.

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Speaker 2: Mexico, like, look what happened on that not only with

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Speaker 2: the election of Amlo, but then the continuation of that

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Speaker 2: and the literal falling apart of the they're like predominant

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Speaker 2: col I'm forgetting the name of that party that's there.

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Speaker 2: And then also our other neighbor to the north, look

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Speaker 2: at Canada.

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Speaker 3: Canada.

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Speaker 2: Justin Trudeau sounds like Donald Trump on immigration right now.

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Speaker 2: He's like, we're done with immigration here Canada. I hear

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Speaker 2: you and I see you. Their party is very, very unpopular,

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Speaker 2: and they also are poised for some major political realignments.

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Speaker 2: So I think the case in all of them is

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Speaker 2: that highly developed Western societies are asking what's next, and

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Speaker 2: it's the first time since World War Two, which is

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Speaker 2: what that's actually what Derek pointed out, and I actually

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Speaker 2: think that's really because what's happening here is that for

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Speaker 2: the first time since World War Two, we're asking fundamental

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Speaker 2: questions about who we want to be in the global

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Speaker 2: system and about our relationship to government. It was a

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Speaker 2: titanic shock that they had to live through since such

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Speaker 2: a short period of time. For us, it's actually been

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Speaker 2: like a slow burning disaster since two thousand and three

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Speaker 2: and the invasion, I guess really since nine to eleven,

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Speaker 2: then the invasion of Iraq, then the financial crisis in

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Speaker 2: almost twenty years of just like feeling tense and constantly

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Speaker 2: voting for these change elections. Now Trump has a chance

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Speaker 2: to get that done and to actually forge some sort

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Speaker 2: of new consensus. But each country has to ask itself, like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: what's like the relationship between the government and the citizen.

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Speaker 3: What is the relationship of what the citizen re means

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Speaker 3: in terms of immigration?

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Speaker 2: And there's very different ways that's playing out across the

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Speaker 2: West and in these developed societies.

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Speaker 3: What though, is our relationship to the globe.

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Speaker 2: And that's another one where I mean, you know, I

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Speaker 2: don't want to you know, put the death knell yet,

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Speaker 2: but Atlantis, which is like this worship of the alliance

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Speaker 2: between Europe and the United States, like that's basically dead.

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Speaker 2: Under Donald Trump, we are returning much more to a

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Speaker 2: much more mercantilist like transactional relationship.

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Speaker 3: The rise of Asia. One of the reasons that Japanese

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Speaker 3: loved Trump.

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Speaker 2: Is specifically because like he's very pro global like he's

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Speaker 2: pro quote unquote fairness of trade. But more importantly, the

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Speaker 2: Japanese have always felt shafted by the fact that we

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Speaker 2: like love and respect like freaking Slovenia or whatever, and

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Speaker 2: they're like a G seven economy sitting over there and like, hey,

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Speaker 2: what about us? That realignment will happen too. So I

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Speaker 2: know I've droned on a lot here, but there's that

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Speaker 2: graph says everything. Because if you think about it, Crystal,

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Speaker 2: you know, nineteen forty six or sorry forty five, when

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Speaker 2: the UK votes out wins in Churchill and puts Clement Attlee,

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Speaker 2: that's when they're like, Okay, we're done with empire and

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Speaker 2: we're going NHS. You know, we're going healthcare service. Same

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Speaker 2: in a lot of the European countries they were like,

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Speaker 2: we're done with this whole like global project. We're just

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Speaker 2: gonna kind of retreat inwards. I guess a little bit

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Speaker 2: and figure out who we are. America also chose a

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Speaker 2: little bit differently under Truman and Eisenhower. But we're back

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Speaker 2: to that type of moment, which is really interesting.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, what I want my liberal friends, and I love

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Speaker 1: my libs on there, what I want them to understand

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Speaker 1: is that the right didn't actually defeat them. Liberals and

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party elites who made it their project, their primary project,

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Speaker 1: not defeating Donald Trump over the past basically decade. Their

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Speaker 1: primary project was defeating the left wing Bernie Sanders movement

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Speaker 1: that was grassroots and populist, and especially the twenty sixteen

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Speaker 1: class first iteration.

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Speaker 4: They made that their project, and they.

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Speaker 1: Succeeded in that. I mean, it's crushed, it's done right.

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Speaker 1: There's no clear successor. Listen, maybe I'll be wrong. I've

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Speaker 1: been wrong about a lot, but I don't see it.

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Speaker 1: You all defeated the movement that had a chance to

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Speaker 1: be a competing vision. And you mentioned Amlo and Claudia Scheinbao.

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Speaker 1: Amlow is, you know, not exactly like Bernie Sanders. Obviously

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Speaker 1: it's a different cultural and political context, but a lot

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Speaker 1: of similarities there. And he was one of the most

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Speaker 1: popular leaders in the entire world, including through a time

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Speaker 1: that did include you know, massive inflation and COVID and

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Speaker 1: UNRAE all that stuff. And he continued to be incredibly

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Speaker 1: popular and was able to basically name his successor. As

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Speaker 1: I mentioned before, just ask yourself who were the strongest

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Speaker 1: supporters of Bernie Sanders. What was his coalition? And it

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Speaker 1: was predominantly working class. Many of the donors contributors was Walmart, Amazon, Starbucks.

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Speaker 4: Remember how we used to cover that. Teachers also were

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Speaker 4: a big part of that.

437
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 1: It was predominantly working class Latinos loved Bernie Sanders. TiO Bernie,

438
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 1: that was a twenty twenty iteration of Bernie in particular.

439
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: They really capitalized on that support and quote unquote bros.

440
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 1: And I think another one thing we've missed in the

441
00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 1: conversation about like the bro exit from the Democratic Party is,

442
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,479
Speaker 1: you know, this is a partial explanation, but you can

443
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 1: go back and look at how were they male supporters

444
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 1: of Bernie, of Bernie Sanders movement treated. They were, you know,

445
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 1: predominantly young men who were smeared as being toxic and

446
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 1: sexist and racist, like that's how they were treated. So,

447
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: you know, is it any surprise then that you have

448
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 1: this significant right word shift among men. I'm not saying

449
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 1: that's everything that's going on, but if you look at

450
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 1: the coalition that backed Bernie and you look at where

451
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: they are now, I think it's it becomes pretty clear

452
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party instead bet on this college educated, upper

453
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 1: class coalition in a country that is still predominantly non

454
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: college educated and working class, and these are the results.

455
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 4: I mean to me, that's pretty clear.

456
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:50,479
Speaker 1: So that's what I want people to really understand is

457
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 1: that the Democrats, the liberals in the Democratic Party really

458
00:22:55,400 --> 00:23:00,119
Speaker 1: did this to themselves by making it such a focus

459
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: and succeeding beyond you know, anyone's wildest dreams in crushing

460
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: the part of the party that had the most appeal

461
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: to working class voters and had a chance, no guarantees,

462
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 1: had a chance of actually competing with the vision of

463
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: trump Ism. So you know, I to me, like a

464
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 1: lot of the die has already been cast, Like that's

465
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: I'm not and again I'm not saying Democratic Party isn't

466
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 1: going to win elections, win votes, whatever, But in terms

467
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 1: of the ideological direction of that party, I think now

468
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: it's going to be more Okay, well, how do we

469
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: adopt and we already see this with immigration, we already

470
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: see this with crime, We already see this in a

471
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: lot of ways. Trudeau going down the same path in Canada.

472
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 1: How do we do like a kinder, gentler version of

473
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 1: trump Ism? And you know that'll sell Bill Clinton, That's

474
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 1: what he did in the nineties. He embraced the ioliberalism,

475
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 1: did the Democratic Party version of it. There will still

476
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: be don't get me wrong, there will still be very

477
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 1: fierce surface level battles over things like immigration and cultural issues,

478
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 1: but the underlying sort of narrative of the nation and

479
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: economic direction, the general contours of that will be largely set.

480
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 4: You know.

481
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: Again, I could be wrong, but that's I sort of

482
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 1: feel like the die is already effective.

483
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 3: No, I totally agree.

484
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 2: I mean that was actually, if anything, Trump's greatest victory

485
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 2: is breaking the Overton window on all of these issues,

486
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: from trade to immigration to foreign policy. And obviously there's

487
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 2: been left right, you know, intercoalitional fight. The left chose

488
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 2: to stick with the old direction, specifically because of like god.

489
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 3: Worship under Barack Obama.

490
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 2: Let's get to some of the inklings that we're getting

491
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 2: right now out of the Trump transition. We don't know

492
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,959
Speaker 2: a ton and not a lot has come out, but

493
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 2: there has been some interesting reporting by our own Ryan Grimm.

494
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: We can go ahead and put that up there on

495
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 2: the screen. Ryan and Mortaza Hussein over at the drop

496
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 2: side are saying, quote, Trump is eyeing iron hawk Brian.

497
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 3: Hook as a first foreign policy pick.

498
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 2: Brian Hook, for those who don't know, previously started under

499
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 2: George W. Bush, and there are inklings that he could

500
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: be back in over at the State Department. People may

501
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 2: remember him because He was kind of a Pompeo Bush

502
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: type protege who was there for the first or the

503
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 2: last two years of the Trump presidency, and he was

504
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 2: one of those figures who really pushed the killing of

505
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 2: Kassam Solamani. Whether he actually gets picked or not will

506
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,880
Speaker 2: be an interesting test case as to what it will

507
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 2: start to look like for secretary of State. I cannot

508
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: reveal to a ton I've asked. Nobody really knows. The

509
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 2: two positions where the biggest question marks are right now

510
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 2: is over State Department and over Secretary of Defense. And also,

511
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 2: to be clear, Hook is not being looked at as

512
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: the next Secretary of State. It's more like an advisor figure,

513
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 2: like the US Special Representative or whatever for Iran. One

514
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 2: name I had heard floated for Secretary of State was

515
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 2: Bob Leitthheiser, which, by the way, I think would be fantastic.

516
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 2: Lightthheiser was the US Trade Representative under Donald try he

517
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: negotiated the USMCA. Perhaps like most importantly is he has

518
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 2: a good report with the President, and Trump trusts him

519
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 2: and likes him and actually kind of shares some of

520
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 2: his philosophy. Lthheisser also never took the like Bill Barr

521
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 2: resistance route and denounced Donald Trump in public, so he's

522
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 2: got good standing. There's a lot of other figures who

523
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 2: could get it. One of them is Rick Grinnell, who

524
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 2: I think is would be an interesting pick too. Grennell

525
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 2: was the US Ambassador to Germany under Donald Trump. Grennell

526
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: also is a major like Trump's surrogate and has been

527
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 2: in the past.

528
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 3: He's from California.

529
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 2: He has critically also shares a lot of Trump's view

530
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 2: of Europe and of in terms of his foreign policy.

531
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 2: Prior to that, he served as I think he was

532
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:49,199
Speaker 2: a UN no, the UN spokesperson under George W.

533
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: Bush.

534
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 2: But he's had a real ideological one eighty. We did

535
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 2: get some good anti Neocon news. Let's put this up

536
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 2: there on the screen. Tom Hotton has reportedly told the

537
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 2: trum team he will not accept any administration role, which, look,

538
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: let's all also put a pin in this, because people

539
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 2: say this until they don't say it, right.

540
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 3: That's that's one thing.

541
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 2: But I mean it is kind of curious because to me,

542
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 2: I feel like his dream has always been to be

543
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 2: Secretary of State, Like his major first thing when he

544
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 2: became senator was to come into the US Senate and

545
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 2: then immediately remember he had that whole brewhaha with Iran

546
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 2: and sent them a letter saying that the US Congress

547
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 2: won't abide by the Iran deal. And there was like

548
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 2: a lot of this but this is like real twenty

549
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 2: fourteen deep cut energy. But anyway, the point is is

550
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 2: that it appears that he wants to stay in the

551
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 2: Senate and actually wants to run the Republican Republican Conference

552
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 2: Chair and be maybe like number three in the Senate GOP.

553
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, also bad, but the number three

554
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 2: SATEP is like that's you can do a lot less, dang.

555
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 3: I mean, he's a young guy. Maybe he doesn't do's

556
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 3: want to give up his career.

557
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 2: You know, you can be a life in the US

558
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 2: Senate whereas you know, you come in and Sectara state

559
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: and Trump fires you by tweet like two hours later,

560
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 2: like Rex Tillers didn't when I was released.

561
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 3: Sitting on the john not great, not a great place.

562
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: And that is true that you look at the graveyard

563
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: of former Trump cabinet level officials.

564
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 4: It doesn't when you.

565
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: Think about it in that context, you you know, maybe this.

566
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 4: Maybe this isn't for me. So anyway, but it's good news.

567
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Tom Cotton is a terrifying psycho,

568
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: so to keep him as far away from the most

569
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: powerful positions is a good thing. I wanted to get

570
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: your reaction, cyber guys. Put this Celenski tweet up on

571
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: the screen. This was so funny.

572
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 3: He'sa man.

573
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: He he understands, he understands the assignment.

574
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 4: Yes she does, he tweeted.

575
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 3: Yeah.

576
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: I had an excellent call with President Donald Trump and

577
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: congratulated him on his historic landslide victory. His tremendous campaign

578
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: made this result possible. I praised his family and team

579
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: for their great work. We agreed to maintain close dialogue

580
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: and advance our cooperation. Strong and unwavering US leadership is

581
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 1: vital for the world and for a just piece. So

582
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 1: you know Trump has always liked Zelensky.

583
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, because Zelensky backed him up during.

584
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 1: His during his impeachment over remember the perfect phone call,

585
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 1: right So yeah, so, and Zelensky never like trashed him

586
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: during that threw him under the bus. But they met

587
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 1: when Zelensky was here in the US and had a

588
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 1: very like friendly rapport and whatever. So you know, Trump

589
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: is very easily manipulated and this stuff works.

590
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 3: That is true.

591
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 2: Zelensky did make a huge mistake though whenever he was

592
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 2: here the last time and he did meet with Donald Trump,

593
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 2: is he said that JD. Vance was quote too radical,

594
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: and that was obviously a massive mistake that he should

595
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 2: have made.

596
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 3: And also, I will.

597
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 2: Be remiss if I would not point out that JD

598
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 2: is the only cabinet of person who you cannot.

599
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 3: Fire because he's democratically elected.

600
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 2: So he's going to be there whether you like it

601
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 2: or not inside of the White House.

602
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 3: Again, I've said a lot of things. If one thing

603
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 3: I know about JD.

604
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 2: Vance is he is rock solid on Ukraine and specifically

605
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 2: on ending the war there.

606
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 4: Also, he's non president. That's true, he's non president.

607
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 2: So let me make the case four and against So

608
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 2: Mike Pompeo and all these other guys, these are Ukraine

609
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 2: you know, fanatics. These are people who want, they would

610
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 2: love nothing more than to declare war on Russia and

611
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 2: go to war there. So if Mike Pompeo gets picked

612
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,959
Speaker 2: at a very prominent position, that's a problem. Yeah, there

613
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 2: are previous people like Rob O'Brien. I'm not one hundred

614
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 2: percent where he stands. A former National Security advisor. That's

615
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: an open question mark. Another big signal for me is

616
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: where does Elbridge Colby stand up? So a Bridge Colby,

617
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 2: he's been here on the show talking about Taiwan. Good

618
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 2: friend and somebody I so deeply, deeply respect. This is

619
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 2: somebody who has been absolutely rock solid on the Ukraine question.

620
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: If he gets a big position inside the White House,

621
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,719
Speaker 2: maybe on a critical desk of the National Security Council,

622
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 2: that's one direction where things could go. Another big signal

623
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 2: will be from the CIA and the rest of the

624
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 2: apparatus in the intel community. So you've got people like

625
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 2: Cash Patel.

626
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 3: A lot of people may.

627
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 2: Not know who Cash Ptel is unless you watch like

628
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 2: War Room or something like that. He was a real

629
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,719
Speaker 2: like diehard Trump figure inside of the ADMIN last time around,

630
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 2: who led the charge on declassification. The point though, is

631
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 2: that on Ukraine, at least as far as I understand it,

632
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 2: he is somebody who's very skeptical of like the neo

633
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 2: conservative worldview and on that position. The other problem though,

634
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 2: is that the people like Brian Hook and Nikki Hayley

635
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 2: and that entire wing of the party, they're much more

636
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 2: pro Ukraine. And then there's a big question about Donald

637
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 2: Trump himself, and there's there is a reasonable expectation of this.

638
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 2: Let's say we could never get Selensky to play ball

639
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 2: on any peace plan. Well, what's the reality, realistic alternative?

640
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 2: Kiev is gonna fall right, Trump, watch what happened in Kabble.

641
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: You don't want to deal with that shit. The media

642
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 2: and everybody they're gonna freak out, and they're gonna be like,

643
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 2: oh my god, this is the worst thing that's ever happened,

644
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 2: and you know, modern history or whatever. And so he

645
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: has a political incentive to make sure that you have

646
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 2: a quote like orderly transition to a peace plan, which

647
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 2: is only possible if you can get Putin Zelenski to

648
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 2: play ball.

649
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 3: Also, Putin is a wild card here too, because like does.

650
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 2: He even want I mean right Putin is literally winning

651
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 2: right now on the battlefield everywhere, Like if he keeps

652
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: us up five ten years, he'll probably gobble up like

653
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 2: forty fifty percent of Ukraine.

654
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 3: He doesn't care how many hundreds of thousands of Russians.

655
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 1: But the media is also going to freak out if

656
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: there is a deal that is struck, because that deal

657
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: will involve some loss of Ukrainian territory.

658
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: Yeh, because they refuse to accept reality, like twenty something

659
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 2: percent of the country is already gone, hundreds of thousands

660
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 2: are dead in terms of the you know, the rest

661
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 2: of what's happening in Ukraine like that is anyway, I

662
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 2: could go on forever on this question. It will be,

663
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: in my opinion, the ultimate test for Donald Trump. So

664
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 2: last time around, to me, the ultimate test for Trump

665
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 2: was on Afghanistan. He ran on pulling out of Afghanistan,

666
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 2: and then he appoints all these neo kan idiots to

667
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 2: his cabinet and to his national security apparatus, and he

668
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 2: basically allows himself to get fooled according to the narrative,

669
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 2: and or just goes along with it with this actually

670
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 2: Afghan surge of true groups in twenty seventeen landmark speech

671
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 2: because it was really the first time that he actually

672
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: completely abandoned a major political foreign policy promits. He claims

673
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 2: he regrets it, etc. But you know, we never actually

674
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 2: got out of Afghanistan, even whenever he negotiated a peace deal.

675
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 2: So on the Ukraine question, you know, he said, I

676
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 2: will have it settled by the time I get into office.

677
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,719
Speaker 2: Zelenski is going to Zelenski is going to butter him

678
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 2: up as much as possible. Also, people shouldn't forget this.

679
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 2: Trump shipped a ton of weapons, advanced weaponry to Ukraine

680
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 2: when he was president because he wanted to combat the

681
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: narrative that he was not pro Russia. Now has he

682
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: learned his lesson on that? You know, he escalated the

683
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 2: war in here.

684
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, people forget Trump much more hawkish. He's a Russia

685
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: than Obama.

686
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 3: Obama, yeah, way more.

687
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 2: Obama never wanted to send Javelin missiles to Ukraine. He

688
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 2: was like, no, I don't think he's in a strategic interest,

689
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 2: and he was right. The question then is does Donald

690
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 2: Trump revert back to that twenty fifteen strategy? And this

691
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: is also always the issue with having a guy like

692
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: Trump in the office. He's very easily manipulated by people

693
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 2: who stroke his ego, and you know, people around him

694
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 2: all have differing agendas. One of them is named Killian Conway,

695
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: who is literally getting paid fifty thousand dollars a month

696
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 2: from a Ukrainian lobbyist right now. So that's a bit

697
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:14,240
Speaker 2: of a problem, I would say, you know, in that regard.

698
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 2: So this will be a massive, massive test for Trump.

699
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 2: On the foreign policy question, and you know, I was

700
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 2: thinking about it too. The last time that a Republican

701
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 2: won the popular vote and had a real mandate was

702
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 2: two thousand and four, and how did that work out

703
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 2: under George Rbush. The one thing that can truly sink

704
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 2: you for all time in forever is a terrible war.

705
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 2: And so I hope that Trump actually listens and doesn't

706
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 2: get us involved in any He says he wants to

707
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 2: avoid it, and I actually do believe him. But also,

708
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 2: you know, you've got a lot of people around you

709
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 2: who would love nothing more than escalate that war that

710
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: they have to go to war with Iran. Well, and

711
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 2: constraining those forces is going to be very very It's.

712
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,320
Speaker 1: Also worth pointing out that many of the Republicans, including

713
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 1: Elbert Colby, who are prominent like anti Ukraine, you know,

714
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: anti funding of Ukraine, et cetera. Their analysis is we

715
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 1: need to not be wasting our weapons here because we

716
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: need to prepare for war with China over Taiwan.

717
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 2: Well, okay, so it's not war which he's like, we

718
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 2: need to prepare and have we had current first stockery.

719
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 4: That's not true, We had it on the show.

720
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: I mean he laid out why he thinks that we

721
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 1: should go to war with China over Taiwan.

722
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, if the question of a Chinese invasion happens,

723
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 2: his entire philosophy is that we need to rapidly increase

724
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 2: our deterrence in the Asia Pacific to prevent an eventual

725
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 2: war with Taiwan. He believes that we should go to

726
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 2: war with Taiwan basically, no matter what his entire act

727
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 2: theory is, like.

728
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 3: We need to basically pivot completely to the age.

729
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to lay on. It's not like it's

730
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 1: a uniform anti war stance. The idea is we should

731
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 1: not be wasting our weapons here because we want to

732
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 1: be ready to use our weapons visa vi China. So

733
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,959
Speaker 1: just to lay out the war complete, you know, foreign

734
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: policy worldview here Trump himself with regard to Iran, I

735
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 1: mean he's been consistently hawcket visa v Iran. All the

736
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,240
Speaker 1: energy within the Republican Party, there's there's very little dissent

737
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 1: with regard to you know, continued escalation and hawkishness and

738
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 1: more sanctions and more hostility visa of the Iran. So

739
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 1: I don't have any expectation that'll change.

740
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 3: It's yeah.

741
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: Look, I'm not going to sit here and tell you

742
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 2: that everything's gonna be rosy on that front.

743
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 3: I have no idea. And if anything, the last time is.

744
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 2: Usually a predictor, so that was a major issue. I

745
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 2: would hope this time you have a guy like JD

746
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: in the White House. But you also, this is critical,

747
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 2: Elon is very anti war. So because Elon is going

748
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 2: or at least not actually even on the Taiwan question.

749
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 4: He's got a lot of money message in Taiwan.

750
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,800
Speaker 2: So just sorry in mainland China, so he's very dubbish

751
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 2: on the Taiwan question. He's also extremely anti Ukraine funding

752
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 2: and has been now for quite a some time. You

753
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 2: also have Tucker Carlson, who last time around, let's be honest,

754
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 2: he was not as influential as I would have liked

755
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 2: him to be on the Iran question and on the

756
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 2: Serio question two for escalating there. But this time I

757
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 2: think he might be able to just because he independent media,

758
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 2: you know, podcasts and all that. It's having a bigger

759
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,280
Speaker 2: moment and seen is more important this time. And Tucker

760
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,839
Speaker 2: and JD you're very close friends. And also Tucker is

761
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 2: I assume is going to take a much more interest

762
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 2: in the transition process this time around, and that is

763
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 2: one of those things that he also has been very

764
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 2: very consistent on with respect to Iran. So I am

765
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 2: somewhat hopeful. I want to be very realistic about what

766
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 2: all this looks like.

767
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 3: And you know, anybody.

768
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 2: Who's expecting some major anti war you know position, like,

769
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:39,439
Speaker 2: that's not reality. It's a coalition party. Mariam Aidelson, don't

770
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 2: give you one hundred million dollars for free. Okay, anti

771
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 2: war himself, yes, But I'm saying like, in terms of

772
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 2: the coalition, who you have to satisfy Paul Singer and

773
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 2: Miriam Aidelson and Bill Ackman. They did not give you

774
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 2: all this money and all the support and all this

775
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 2: to not cash in whenever they need to. And you're

776
00:37:58,560 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 2: an idiot if you think that they're not going to

777
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 2: so around, that's very important, Kam