1 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Brian Grudeski. Thank 2 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 1: you all for being here again. I forgot to mention 3 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: this on Monday show, but I want to thank all 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: the veterans. It was Veterans Day on Tuesday. It's a 5 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: problem of mine where I just don't look at like 6 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 1: three days ahead and to see there's a big holiday. 7 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,760 Speaker 1: So I missed saying it the day before. But Happy 8 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: Veterans Data. All the veterans out there, thank you for 9 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: your service for joining our armed forces and keeping our 10 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: nation free. I appreciate everything you have done and do 11 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 1: so anyway, I hope you guys had a great day. 12 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: I want to briefly talk about some economic news before 13 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: doing a full ask Me Anything segment. So Goldman sachs 14 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: Is estimated that the economy loss around fifty thousand jobs 15 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 1: in October. Now that's not the official government data. Because 16 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 1: of the government shutdown, there was a delay getting out 17 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: the official data, so we don't know the official data yet, 18 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: but this is just an estimate. I'm going to do 19 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: an episode next week dedicated to the economy, and I 20 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 1: am going to have another whole episode on it AI 21 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: regulation on the government, which would be really really good. 22 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: I think of lining up with a very impressive guest 23 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: for that show, so that'll be next week. And I 24 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: got to get more on immigration because there's so much 25 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: immigration news. But I looked at my emails and I 26 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 1: was backed up on asking me any things, and I 27 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: was like, some of these questions are so dated. I 28 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: have to just do a whole episode and kind of 29 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 1: empty the inbox because I really appreciate you guys. I 30 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: appreciate you joining me asked Me Anything segment. By the way, 31 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 1: before the end of the year, I'm going to bring 32 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 1: on one of my old campaign buddies to discuss anything 33 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: about running for office or you know, campaigns or like 34 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 1: the meat and potatoes a campaign is not just like 35 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: the overall idea of politics or a big meta issue, 36 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: but just like what it's like to work on a campaign, 37 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: how to run for office, all those real meat and 38 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: potato questions. I think you guys really enjoyed that episode 39 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:44,759 Speaker 1: I did like early early in the year and when 40 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: my first episode. So I'm going to do it again. 41 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: I hope you guys will be part of it and 42 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: do a whole ask Me anything just about campaigns and 43 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: working in politics and what that whole thing is like. 44 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: So email me Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. 45 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: Ryan at numbers Plural Game podcast dot com. Put in 46 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: the headline campaign episode. I'll be sure to answer all 47 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: those questions and then once again ask me anything because 48 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: we do. We love this part of the show. It 49 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: really makes the whole entire podcast. You know about anything 50 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: about you know, I feel like a dialogue. I'm not 51 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: just talking to a computer. So okay, here goes, ask 52 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: me anything for the day. So first question comes from 53 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: e cardialist. He says, my family took a trip to 54 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: Washingt d C. About ten years ago. All of my 55 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 1: travel research and tourist books made a point to not 56 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: having a floor plan of the White House and stated 57 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 1: that the location of the Oval Office has not been 58 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: released to the public. I actually did not know that. 59 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 1: With the most with the recent ballroom outrage, I've seen 60 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: a number of images that show the exact location, shape, 61 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: and size of the Oval Office. Until this week, I 62 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: didn't know that it was in the White House. Rather, 63 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: it is in the West Wing. It wasn't in the 64 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: White House. It's in the West Wing. When did the 65 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: location of the Oval Office become something people didn't try 66 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: to protect I actually had never heard of that before, 67 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: because I I feel like there's models of the White 68 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: House that you could buy, and the West Wing is there, 69 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: and the Oval Office is there. I didn't I didn't 70 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: know that that was not supposed to be public. I 71 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 1: feel like it was. There was a movie called Civil 72 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,839 Speaker 1: War that was released a couple of years ago. It 73 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: was there was a war, obviously a civil war, a 74 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: new civil war, and they were invading the White House 75 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: and they went through like door to door Florida, Florida 76 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: to get to the west to the gets to the Oval. 77 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: And I was watching my buddy John mcintee, and John 78 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: was Trump's body man and then the head of PPO 79 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: during the first term of the administration. And one thing 80 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: John said to me, I was like, Wow, they really 81 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: got this very accurate, Like this is extremely accurate the 82 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: layout of the White House. So I feel like it was. 83 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: I feel like it was there, Like I feel like 84 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 1: people could have gotten a hold of it. I don't know, 85 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: maybe this was the one tour guy, or maybe this 86 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: is the one book that says that the old Office 87 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: is not located, but I feel like it probably was. 88 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: And about the outrage in general. Look, Dan Turntine said 89 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: this on this podcast. Democrats fundamentally believe that we are 90 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: in a fever dream that Trump will just go away 91 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: if there's enough controversy, if there's enough protests, if there's 92 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: enough no King's rally that you know it's Russia or 93 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 1: Epstein know the ballroom or anything like Liberals Finnament's believe 94 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 1: were just one more controversy away from wake up the 95 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: eyes of millions of people that this whole thing was 96 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: misguided and that will return to normalcy as they see it. 97 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 1: And if only they were focused on policies that make 98 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: them popular, they would be much further along to being 99 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: effective against him. Okay, next question, Hey, Ryan, Although I 100 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 1: have a boy's name, I am actually a girl. What 101 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: a way to start off a question. I am from 102 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 1: the South and my parents give me my grandmother's made 103 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 1: a name. Pause. So I have a Candida running for 104 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: office in the South and he has his grandmother's made 105 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: a name. And apparently I did not know this, but 106 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 1: this is I learned this this year that that is 107 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: a very common tradition in the South. I have to 108 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: say I really like it. I really like the idea 109 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:05,039 Speaker 1: of honoring your maternal sides family by giving the first 110 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: name of the child to their last name. So the 111 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 1: Candon's name is Morgan Murphy, and Morgan was his grandmother's 112 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: last name. Yes, his grandmother's last name, So that is 113 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: I think it's very very cool. It's a very cool 114 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: Southern tradition I just learned about. The question continues, why 115 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 1: do you think Democrats are holding out on the shutdown? 116 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 1: It is because the past the Republicans have given into 117 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: their temper tantrum. Can you please give us the numbers 118 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: you're so talented at doing on past shutdowns and how 119 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: they play out, whether Conservatives have given in play cared 120 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: the Democrats. Secondly, I know you want to Buck and 121 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 1: Clay to discuss the Jewish vote. How has it changed 122 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: or not changed his October seventh, and how does it 123 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 1: stand now now? And why could you do a longer 124 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: segment on that? Please? Rock Rock love that you are 125 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: at this question very very smart stuff. So I am 126 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: going to discuss first the shutdown. Obviously it's over now, 127 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: but I think a big part of it that no 128 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: one was really talking about was one was to juice 129 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 1: the election in New Jersey and Virginia. I think there 130 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: was a pure political thing right to give you langry, 131 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: but a lot of it really has to do with 132 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:10,159 Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer's career. Rewind the date. What was being talked 133 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 1: about on September thirtieth, twenty twenty five that one of 134 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 1: the big stories was a poll that had come out 135 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: from Pew Research, and it found that Schumer was the 136 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: most unpopular national politician in the country, more than John Thune, 137 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: more than Donald Trump, more than JD. Vans, more than 138 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 1: Hakim Jeffries. Schumer had a negative twenty nine percent approval rating. 139 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: But what made it worse for Schumer was that he 140 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 1: was also underwater nationally with Democrats. He was at negative 141 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 1: four nationally among his own party. And that poll came 142 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: out several I guess, maybe like ten weeks or eleven 143 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: weeks after. Another poll showed that AOC was beating Schumer 144 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: in New York City if they went to a statewide primary, 145 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: But in the New York City, which is forty two 146 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: percent of the state's populations in those five burrows in 147 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: a head to head competition, Schumer was losing to AOC 148 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 1: by twenty one points in New York City, means that 149 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: he'd have to make up a ton of votes out 150 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: on Long Island and in the suburbs of New York 151 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: up state in Westchester, Rockland, and then further in western 152 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: New York. That's not a great place for Schumer to be. 153 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: He was very worried, I think by the fact that 154 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 1: Democrats didn't believe he was up for the fight against Trump. 155 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: That was often another number one thing cited it Schumer's 156 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: not a fighter, so Schumer needed the narrative to change 157 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: that he was going to fight. And I think that's 158 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: why you see more mainstream Democrats. I guess the term 159 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: if we were in the UK would be backbenchers Schumer 160 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: back benchers, people who side with the leadership most of 161 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: the time. That's why they voted to continue the shutdown, 162 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: which they wouldn't have done had had Schumer told them to, 163 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: you know, get rid of the shutdown, like let's keep 164 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: the thing everything funded. They basically kind of go with 165 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: a lot of what Schumer's cues are. That's why it's 166 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: believed that Schumer gave them the okay, enough of them 167 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 1: who are either retiring or they're not up for a 168 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: very long time to sit there and devote to end 169 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 1: the shutdown with getting very little concessions from the Republican Party. 170 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: It's very rare except for Trump's term. It was very 171 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 1: rare before that for the Republican president to have a 172 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: government shutdown, especially with the Republican majority. I don't think 173 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: Bush ever had them. So that's I mean, that's really 174 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: where I think a big part of it was. It 175 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: was really Schumer trying to make a stand. Schumer trying 176 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: to sit there and say, you know, look, I'm this 177 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 1: strong fighter, and I think things just got so bad 178 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: between the air flights being canceled and snap benefits and 179 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: you know, all the rest of it that they ultimately caved, 180 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: which is more or less what the Democrats said. They 181 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: basically caved. My guess is that Schumer gave him the blessing, 182 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 1: hoping he wouldn't get his prints on it, and of 183 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: course it went to a huge backlash. Congress and Rocannor 184 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: and several other people are saying Schumer needs to step 185 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: aside his leader. I think this is the last ditch 186 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 1: effort to save Schumer's career, and I didn't think it's 187 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: going to work. I don't. As far as the Jewish 188 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: vot goes. I'm going to try to dedicate an episode 189 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: to this later on the year because it's something that 190 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: everyone talks about. Here's the deal. Since October seventh, there's 191 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: only been two major elections, so I guess three major 192 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: elections right in New York City, Virginia, and New Jersey's governorship, 193 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: which saw a big left wing shift along across the board. 194 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,199 Speaker 1: New York City didn't really have a Republican running. We 195 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: had a Republican running on the ticket, but his name 196 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,079 Speaker 1: was on the ballot, but he It was basically a 197 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: moderate republic Democrat versus a left wing Democrat race. That's 198 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 1: how the media branded it. So the Jewish vote was 199 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: very clearly aligned with Guomo there, so it's not really 200 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:40,079 Speaker 1: a good test case. In New Jersey, the Orthodox Jewish 201 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: vote was very strong for Chitarelly, extremely strong for Chitarelly. 202 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: It's one of the very few places that swung right 203 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 1: word from twenty twenty four. And as far as Virginia goes, 204 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: there's not really a heavy Jewish presences that they're in. 205 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: You get polling, accurate polling, don here's the problem with 206 00:09:57,600 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: the Jewish vote as far as these studies that come 207 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: one there is. There's a nonprofit I will think of 208 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: the name of it, probably after this episode's over, that 209 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: is a left wing nonprofit. And they immediately released the 210 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: first eggs of Poles right after the elections saying how 211 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: the Jewish vote broke, but the Jewish vote always seems 212 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 1: to break even more left wing than the previous election. 213 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: They kind of manipulate the data and they given the 214 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: media eats it up because it's a good narrative the 215 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 1: media really wants. When you look at the Jewish vote, 216 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 1: you're really breaking it into three different groups of people. 217 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: You're breaking into non religious Jews. Who are you know, secular, 218 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:38,119 Speaker 1: who would be somebody like a fran Drusher, a Jerry Seinfeld, 219 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: a Woody Allen, somebody who they are a fran Leeblitz. 220 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: They are Bill Maher, I guess is half Jewish. They 221 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 1: are Jewish in the sense of their birth or their circumstances, 222 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: but it doesn't really influence their politics all that much. 223 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: They don't have a special attachment to Israel. They are 224 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: just they're just Jewish. So when and they for the 225 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,559 Speaker 1: longest time where the all huge teche of the Jewish 226 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: population in America, probably most of the majority. So when 227 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: everyone would say, oh, the Jewish votes not moving, well, 228 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: they vote like non religious, college educated whites. Well, that 229 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: is one of the most left wing groups in America. 230 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: Then there's also the Then there's the conservative Jews. This 231 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: is like conservative or Orthodox. Those are two separate things, 232 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: if you know Judaism, but I'm going to lump them 233 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 1: in together. Politically, they tend to vote, you know, much 234 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 1: more Republican than the secular Jews do. But that would 235 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: be something like a Ben Shapiro, right. They are when 236 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: they are Republicans. I have found they are the most 237 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: consistent Republicans. They are of the Jewish population. They are 238 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: very consistently. I'm a Republican. I vote Republican very very 239 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: very like down the line constantly. And then the last 240 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: group is the like ultra Orthodox, the Hasidum. They are 241 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: the ones who wear you know, the outfits and the 242 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: hats and that where the fur. Their wives have wigs 243 00:11:57,280 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: a lot. They live in cloister community where they don't 244 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 1: do a lot of the outside of the Jewish community. 245 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: You'll see them in Borough Park or a curious joal 246 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: in New York or Lakewood, New Jersey. They tend to 247 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,079 Speaker 1: vote for how the rabbis want. And I know it's 248 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: like a very controversial thing to sit there and say, 249 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,679 Speaker 1: but they do block vote based upon rabbi endorsements. That's 250 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 1: why the rabbi's endorsements are so important, because they have 251 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 1: huge voters to turnout. They turn out at maximum level 252 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: in every election for doll catcher or for president, doesn't matter, 253 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: and they have a huge interest in having certain things 254 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: granted from the state. I will tell you I went 255 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,439 Speaker 1: to an Asidic This is the craziest thing in the world. 256 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: I went to a Hasidic a meeting with acidic Jews 257 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 1: Hassidic rabbis in Brooklyn, and they were asking about education 258 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: issues because I run the seventeen seventy six project pack. 259 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 1: And I guess to the place and it looked like 260 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: a doctor's office. It looked so strange. It looked like 261 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 1: a doctor's office or like a like a call center, 262 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: like I couldn't make out what where I was. And finally, 263 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:03,439 Speaker 1: because it was like a waiting room. But then there 264 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: was rows of Jewish women, you know, having someone in 265 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: front of them, sitting next to them doing phone calls 266 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 1: to somebody or other, and having computers. So I finally 267 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,839 Speaker 1: got to meet with the rabbis and I asked the 268 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:16,599 Speaker 1: person who brought me, who is not a rabbi but 269 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: is Jewish, said to them, where am I? Like, what 270 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: is this place? I've never seen something of this before 271 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: in my life. And they said, oh, this is where 272 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: we signed everyone up for Medicaid and Social Security benefits. 273 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,839 Speaker 1: And the Republican voice in my head wanted to sit 274 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: there and scream like crazy. And it was really funny 275 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: because when the snap benefits were ending and they were 276 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: having a bunch of people, you know, who were definitely 277 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: able bodied in my opinion, going on the news to say, 278 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 1: you know, look at my hungry kids and they have 279 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: like the nice nails, and they have new iPhones, and 280 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 1: they probably shouldn't be on welfare benefits and we should 281 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 1: probably have better ways of monitoring welfare benefits and they 282 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: have six kids by who knows. That same friend who 283 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: brought me to the call center was like, this is ridiculous. 284 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 1: People be working, and I said, that's exactly what I 285 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: thought about all those people at that Medicaid call center 286 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: that he brought me to. Anyway, those that voting block 287 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 1: votes extremely one way or the other. So like that's 288 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 1: when you'll see like these elections where it's Trump, you know, 289 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,559 Speaker 1: ninety seven to two, and then down ballot it will 290 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: be a Democrat like ninety five to like three. Like 291 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: it will be one way or the other, and they 292 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: have no loyalty to party. It's really an issues based thing. 293 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: They tend to vote Republican federally and Democrat locally in 294 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: my opinion. Okay, so I've made to a whole episode 295 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: on this, but I just get, you know, with everything 296 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 1: about I feel tremendously bad for my Jewish friends and 297 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: for my friends who are Zionists who feel like they 298 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 1: are under a constant attack and duress. And it's led 299 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 1: to a place where having an honest conversation good and bad, 300 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: it's very difficult without feeling like you're kind of piling 301 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: on to a very unfair moment. I would like to 302 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: go into the Jewish vote one day, though, and maybe 303 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: break it down. I'll have one of my friends who's 304 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: Jewish to sit there and works in Jewish politics, sit 305 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: there and really discuss and break it down. But maybe 306 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: I'll do a lot of it because it is fascinating. 307 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: It's very interesting. Okay, speaking of Jews. Next question comes 308 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: from Joel. I don't know Joel is Jewish, but the 309 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: questions about Jews, okay? And Joel says, suppose Israeli Prime 310 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: Minister Netanya, who visits New York City and now Mayor Mandanni, 311 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: has him arrested on war crimes, what federal laws or 312 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: doctrines would apply. Could Mandanni himself be arrested under the 313 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: Logan Act for interfering with foreign affairs? Or would it 314 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 1: just not happened? Thanks for engaging with your audience so thoughtfully. 315 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: You've definitely got a loyal listen here. Oh thank you, Joel. 316 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: It's really kind of you. So it's a great question. Netnia, 317 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 1: who has a warrant for his arrest under the International 318 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: Crime Criminal Court for crimes against humanity and soon to 319 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: be Mayor Mandannie, has said over and over he plans 320 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: on arresting him if he comes to New York City. 321 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: Legal experts say that he doesn't really have the authority. 322 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 1: I look this up because I'm not a lawyer and 323 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: I don't pretend to play one. So this comes from 324 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 1: India Today and the Time Times magazine. It says the 325 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: United States is not a signatory on the International Criminal Court, 326 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: which means the ICC has no jurisdiction within the US territory. 327 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: As Times reported after interviewing Mandannie, several federal laws would 328 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: be would obstruct any local attempt to execute an international 329 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: arrest warrant. The US Constitution gives the federal government authority 330 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 1: over foreign affairs, a power repeatedly upheld by the American courts. 331 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: In practice, this means that even if the New York 332 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: City authorities were to attempt to detain Yahoo, federal agencies 333 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: would override that move. Mendanni himself acknowledged these limits during 334 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: his Zeno interview. He said, quote, I'm going to operate 335 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: within the bounds of the law on not Donald Trump 336 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: seeking to create my own legal system. Of course, he's 337 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: got to hit Trump, but this at the time of 338 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: celebrating Benjamin Yahoo in the city from those in the 339 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 1: leading political positions, has come to an end. So he 340 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: can't do it. I mean, that's basically the long law 341 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: and short of it. He can't do it. And I 342 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: think that he knows he can't do it. It's just 343 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: him being a union know what. Okay. Tristan Shelby writes 344 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: about the elections turnout was definitely the main issue, but 345 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 1: I think the shutdown and lack of focus on cost 346 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,360 Speaker 1: of living and inflation by Trump and the White House 347 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,919 Speaker 1: played it a role too. Seems like Trump and Jdvans 348 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 1: are aware that these about these issues. Hopefully they'll immediately 349 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: focus on it. I would look into pushing care for 350 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: leaf checks before Christmas to make more of the public 351 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: on board with tariffs and help give extra income during 352 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: the holiday season. I would like to raise a minimal wage. 353 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 1: It's a winning issue and I would take away take 354 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: away from the damas, but doubt this establishment GOP will 355 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: be on board. Looking forward to Thursday's podcast. Okay, so 356 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: here's the thing, and I don't mean to sound like 357 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: a libertarian, because you know I can't stand libertarians. Here 358 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: is the thing about the minimal wage. Worker scarcity creates 359 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: higher and minimum wages. Right, if you have less foreign 360 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: workers being pumped into the country, the minimal wage will 361 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: rise naturally, especially for people with low skills. Right. There's 362 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:08,920 Speaker 1: no minimum wage conversation happening among doctors or nurses or 363 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 1: educated class. It's really the uneducated population, not uninformed uneducated. 364 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: I think there's a difference, but people without a college degree, 365 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: who are working blue collar jobs or are they're working 366 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 1: service jobs, that protecting those workers is of the most importance, 367 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 1: and other ones really feeling the tremendous exhaustion of the 368 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 1: last five years of inflation and constant spending. I mean, 369 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 1: I think that the two thousand dollars check idea is 370 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 1: would be popular, but our deficit is so large, our 371 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 1: debt is so large that anything that we could do 372 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 1: to bring that down will help reduce inflation over time. 373 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 1: It is more essential to bring down the deficit and 374 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: the debt than to worry about these two thousand dollar 375 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: checks that will help the working class more over the 376 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: long term. And I know if you're listening, I know 377 00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: if you're hungry, you don't think about the long term. 378 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: I know if you have credit card payments and you're 379 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,199 Speaker 1: looking at Christmas and I know you're not thinking of 380 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 1: the long term. I get it. I completely understand. I've 381 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 1: been broke at times. I know what that feels like, 382 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: I know how tough it can be, and I know 383 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: what a two thousand dollars track would mean for a 384 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 1: lot of people. So I'm not discouraging that. I'm just 385 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:19,120 Speaker 1: trying to think of a bigger policy issue, saying how 386 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: do we help Americans and the best way is to 387 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,439 Speaker 1: reduce the deficit. It will bring down inflations. I'm not 388 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: really for that, although I understand him doing this. In 389 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: my opinion on the ADMIN in the last few months 390 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 1: is they Trump ha spent a lot of time looking 391 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 1: at overseas and international issues, which is very common for 392 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: second term presidents. Right you have Clinton who did it 393 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: in Israel. Bush, I mean, I guess this whole entire 394 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: second term was dealt with with foreign policy issues, but 395 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 1: the Iraq War mainly, and then you had Obama with 396 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:53,160 Speaker 1: trying to do the Iran deal. Like second terms are 397 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 1: oftentimes for legacy making historical foreign policy accomplishments, and President Trump, 398 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 1: to his credit, it has a number of them. But 399 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: like I said in the post election podcast, because you 400 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 1: saw this swing both among white working class voters and 401 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: Latino voters who are of a similar economic level, similar 402 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: economic indicators, I think economics played a more significant role 403 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 1: than people. And Republicans are are willing to admit. Inflation 404 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: is down from Biden years, but prices aren't down, which 405 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,640 Speaker 1: you know if you're struggling three years ago. Because inflation 406 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: was very high. Unless you've got a significant raise, you're 407 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:36,120 Speaker 1: probably still struggling. Unemployment for young people is very high 408 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 1: right now. If you're in your fifties and you got 409 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: a kid to graduate at college, I'm sure you're sitting 410 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,439 Speaker 1: there with a lot of anxiety of how they can 411 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,119 Speaker 1: get a job. Credit card debt is that its highest 412 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,880 Speaker 1: amount ever. Q three of twenty twenty five was over 413 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 1: a trillion dollars. People are really struggling, and I think 414 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: there's anger because Trump was known to be so successful 415 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 1: in this first time on the economy, they were hoping 416 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: he could just change it all immediately. Polls find that 417 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: Trump is so severely underwater. When it comes to inflation, 418 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 1: it's negative twenty six points. And when you ask voters, 419 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 1: this is in the polls. If you ask voters who 420 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,800 Speaker 1: do you blame on affordability and unaffordability, really Americans say 421 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: Trump over Biden fifty four to twenty one. He is 422 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: the president. So that's who people blame. And is it 423 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: should be a concern for Republicans because they are in power, 424 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: and people blame the people in power. It's just how 425 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: it works, even if it's not fair, even if some 426 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 1: of this problems predate Trump's first term, even if a 427 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: lot of it happened right after COVID and because of 428 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 1: COVID heavy lies the crown. It's just how the voters 429 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 1: see things. So we'll be back with more. Ask me 430 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: anything after this. All right, back to ask me anything. 431 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: This question comes from Bill. He says, I know you're 432 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: not an electional lawyer. I'm not even a college graduate, 433 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,119 Speaker 1: but I saw this on Twitter and thought it was 434 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 1: interesting way to challenge it. I can get a lot 435 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: of attention. It's about the Virginia redistricting push. The rule 436 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 1: require of the amendment to pass through the legislator before 437 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: an election and again after. But the election was ongoing, 438 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of vote were cast because of mail 439 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,959 Speaker 1: in ballads under the VIA law. Is this before an election? 440 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: It seems wrong? Okay, I'm not an election lawyer. I 441 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 1: did look this up a little bit, and technically it 442 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 1: is before an election because it's an election day, I'm sure, 443 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: and that's an interesting debate, and who knows how a 444 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 1: judge would rule, So I don't know. I mean, it 445 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,919 Speaker 1: seems like election day is the marker, not when early 446 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: ballots are being mailed I guess it's an interesting way 447 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 1: of considering it. I couldn't find anything online, any resource 448 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: online that showed that this had been argued before, and 449 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:43,160 Speaker 1: mail in ballots obviously have been greatly expanded since COVID. 450 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 1: So we'll see. If this does go through, Democrats will 451 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: likely pick up three more seats in Virginia from the 452 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 1: Republicans through redistricting efforts. You know, Republicans when the registioning 453 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,959 Speaker 1: is stuff started. This is definitely the falsiest move by 454 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 1: any of the legislators now that I'm thinking about it. 455 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: But when the registionings starts, Republicans, we're having this big advantage, 456 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 1: but losing what we're going to lose in Virginia and 457 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: what we lost in California, and seeing how the districts 458 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 1: are being changed, it's going to be very I mean, 459 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: Republicans may only come out with one or two more 460 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: season they went in with, depending what Florida, Indiana, and 461 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: Kansas do. Unless SCOTUS strikes down Section two of the 462 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:27,399 Speaker 1: Voting Rights Act in Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, unless 463 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 1: they start immediately going to the redistricting, it's going to 464 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: be a very very you know, big question of did 465 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: they gain very much at all. I mean maybe they 466 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: gained like one or two seats, but it's not enough 467 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: to deflect from a blue wave, like it won't be 468 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: enough to stop a blue wave from crashing. I mean, 469 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 1: they'll save a few seats, but not that many. A 470 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 1: big question really remains for what DeSantis does in Florida, 471 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 1: because he could redistrict Democrats out of four seats in 472 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,639 Speaker 1: Florida pretty easily as long as the Hispanic vote doesn't 473 00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: retract significantly. And obviously the Hispanic vote in Florida is 474 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: differently than the Hispanic vote everywhere else in the country. 475 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens in Florida, see what happens 476 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: in Kansas. But between Virginia and California, it's not very 477 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: faitable for Republicans unless the VRA is struck down. I 478 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 1: would say overall, if it's not struck down, you're looking 479 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 1: at maybe two or three one or two seats extra 480 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 1: game for Republicans. If it is struck down, you might 481 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: see a lot more. And if it's limited, it's like Louisiana, 482 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 1: Alabama or the court cases were maybe like four seats 483 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: so yeah, I mean that's that was the gamble that 484 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 1: Republicans took. They're going to come up with a little 485 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: bit of an advantage, but not enough to stop a blue 486 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 1: wave if it crashes through a country next November. Okay, 487 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 1: next question, And you guys know I am terrible pronouncing names, 488 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: so I apologize ahead of time. Per drawl our karia, 489 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,879 Speaker 1: I know I butchered that, and whoever you are, I 490 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: am so sorry forgive me. I'm from Queens, New York. 491 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: I don't breathe through my nose. I don't say ours correct. 492 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 1: I'm working on a lot of you know, handicaps right now, 493 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 1: so I'm sorry. The email says huge fan of your work. 494 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 1: I am currently here in Florida, not a US citizen, 495 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,879 Speaker 1: just a permanent resident. I felt terrible by the election 496 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 1: day result and I was following you before to kind 497 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: of you before, so kind of was expected. What I 498 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: realized is that we were losing by eleven in Wisconsin 499 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 1: during the Supreme Court race. Was there any races that 500 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 1: were precursors to the two governors races? That's a great question, 501 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,840 Speaker 1: And once again, p Jwall, I am sorry I was 502 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 1: saying your name incorrectly. That's a great question, though I 503 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,000 Speaker 1: don't think there was any singular race, but there was 504 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:41,120 Speaker 1: definitely a question over voter intensity. If you look at 505 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: all the precursor special elections that were happening, both on 506 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 1: the state legislative level and the congressional level, you could 507 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,199 Speaker 1: see Democrat intensity was really very, very high, higher than 508 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: it had been almost ever in recent times. You have 509 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 1: the Arizona seventh congressional race where Democrats did thirteen points 510 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,679 Speaker 1: better than they did last year, Florida's first where they 511 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: did seventeen points better, Florida's six where they did nineteen 512 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,160 Speaker 1: points better, and Florida Sorry, Virginia eleven, where they did 513 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,120 Speaker 1: sixteen points better. So there were all those special elections 514 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 1: where Democrats were doing between thirteen to nineteen points better 515 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 1: than they had done in twenty twenty four. That's not 516 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: because those districts. Those were all safe districts, by the way, 517 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 1: the Republicans and Democrats didn't flipping of those districts. It 518 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:29,119 Speaker 1: was just that the voter intensity by their own party 519 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 1: was so heavy. I mean, it is this issue of 520 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 1: complacency among voters. When your parties in the White House, 521 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:36,919 Speaker 1: you think you know the president's got it, I'm going 522 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: to sleep in. I just, you know, campaigned and voted 523 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,320 Speaker 1: for this guy who won, So why am I going 524 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 1: to get out there? And that really started to show 525 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 1: the signs that there was something kind of brewing. There's 526 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 1: also a ton of local state legislative races where Democrats 527 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 1: way outperform numbers. I'm not going to go through all 528 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,680 Speaker 1: of them because there was dozens, but it definitely showed 529 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 1: that the trend was in democrats favor. I don't know 530 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 1: if there's any signs specifically the Latino and working white vote, 531 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 1: working like coll ass blue collar vote. I'm nothing that 532 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 1: I can see from those things, but definitely the signs 533 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,920 Speaker 1: of voter intensity was clear on display. I think people 534 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 1: are just kind of ignoring it because the old adage is, oh, 535 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: you know, these special elections, they don't decide anything. That's 536 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 1: just a special election, which is true until it's not 537 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,159 Speaker 1: until it is predictive. Okay, This last question for this 538 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 1: episode comes from Joseph. He says, Hey, Ryan, I'm a 539 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: big fan of your work as a Trump voter. I 540 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,159 Speaker 1: feel like he has been disappointing on a lot of 541 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,439 Speaker 1: key policy issues. Do you think he's getting bad advice 542 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 1: from Susie Wilds, Brooke Rowans, and Howard Lutnick side of 543 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 1: the adamant Okay, this is an interesting question. So I 544 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,199 Speaker 1: am not a personal fan of several members of the administration. 545 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,480 Speaker 1: I think other people do a very very good job. 546 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 1: Susie Wilds, I give a lot of credit to is 547 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 1: a tough job to be any chief of staff, to 548 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 1: be Trump'sjuba staff, It's extremely difficult, right, It's not easy, 549 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 1: no easy gig. And she's a woman of a particular 550 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 1: age who doesn't allow for many leaks or any leaks 551 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,040 Speaker 1: really to go through this White House. And I think 552 00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 1: she's done a very good job at managing the situation 553 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 1: to the best of her abilities. Howard Lonik I don't 554 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 1: have a lot of positive things to say about him, 555 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,120 Speaker 1: and Brooke Rowlin's the same. That being said, I think 556 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 1: that it's just more than the people that we know. 557 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 1: There are a lot of people who come in and 558 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:21,120 Speaker 1: out of Trump's orbit who influence them, who sit there 559 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: and say this thing or that thing. You know, they 560 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:28,159 Speaker 1: constantly being peddled about the deportations and the tariffs, and 561 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,679 Speaker 1: there's a lot of things that are very much people 562 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,199 Speaker 1: pushing Trump on this issue or that issue. So I 563 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: don't think it's just the people that we know. And 564 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 1: more times than not, in my experience working in politics, 565 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 1: both from the journalism side and the political side, a 566 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 1: lot of times it's not the people that you know. 567 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 1: I remember back in twenty seventeen, I sent this tweet 568 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 1: out and I wrote, I think I wrote a story 569 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 1: about it, but I was getting calls from inside the 570 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: White House, my sources inside the West Wing who were saying, 571 00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,120 Speaker 1: these are the people who were really against Trump, and 572 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,239 Speaker 1: they've all been shown themselves as prominent never trumpers. They 573 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 1: were even they've been the guy who wrote that book, Anonymous, 574 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 1: who wrote that op ed for the New York Times. 575 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 1: He was on my list as somebody who was against 576 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,239 Speaker 1: Trump and the White House. No one knew. I mean, 577 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 1: he wasn't a very famous person. I think. Listen, it's 578 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 1: been a rough couple weeks with headlines from the Trump administration. 579 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 1: I know that. And Trump did not make it easier 580 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 1: on his supporters. From the Lori Ingram interview, I'm not 581 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 1: you know, I'm not gonna pretend and say, oh no, 582 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 1: everything is going fine. Look away, look away, look away, 583 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 1: it's not my role, it's on my job. I'm here 584 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: to have an honest conversation with my listeners. I think 585 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,640 Speaker 1: it's I think it's important to sit there and say, one, 586 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: no politician is perfect, and you're never going to get 587 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 1: one hundred percent of what you want. So, as somebody 588 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 1: who was a Day one Trump supporter, let's look at 589 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 1: what we're getting. Right. Deportations are happening. Five hundred thousand 590 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 1: and two million self Deportation's great, fantastic, And he's not 591 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 1: backing down, which there's all the effort in the world 592 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 1: to back down right now. And he's not backing down. 593 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 1: On foreign policy, he's been pretty good. You know, we 594 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 1: haven't gotten more into more interventionist wars, and there was 595 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 1: every incentive to do it. So I want that to 596 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 1: be very clear. On the economy, it's struggling and I'm 597 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: and I don't know if there is an easy way 598 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 1: to get out of it. We may have tougher times 599 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 1: ahead of us before we are in the clear. And 600 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 1: part of that is a change in the American economy, 601 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:28,000 Speaker 1: in part because of AI and how that's changing the economy, 602 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: in part because of worries over how tariffs have been issued. 603 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 1: It's been all over the place. I will admit that, 604 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 1: even though I'm supportive in general of tariffs, I think 605 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 1: that they have been all over the place. The messaging 606 00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,280 Speaker 1: has been a disaster. Everyone's got a different answer for everything. 607 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 1: I think Scott has said is doing a really good job, 608 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,640 Speaker 1: though with a treasury much better than what's doing. And 609 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 1: I think that I think that the economy is the 610 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,360 Speaker 1: main issue. I know it's easy and I did this 611 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: a lot during term one, right, blaming everyone around Trump 612 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 1: for Trump's shortcomings, and sometimes they are. You know, there 613 00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 1: are people who in his ear who are giving him 614 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 1: better device it's one hundred and ten percent. But at 615 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 1: the end of the day, Trump is Trump, right, He's not. 616 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:10,200 Speaker 1: He is a great politician because he is not nailed 617 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 1: to strict ideology. Unfortunately, that includes his own ideology that 618 00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 1: he creates and that he campaigns on. So I think 619 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 1: it's not been a perfect administration. I think that there's 620 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 1: been a lot of hiccups and misplacements and kind of 621 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 1: got lost after the first four months of just one 622 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:33,720 Speaker 1: win after the other, win after the other win. I 623 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: want to get back to that earlier's place. But I 624 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 1: think a lot more commitment. Is going to need it 625 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 1: on the economy right now because it's really really struggling. 626 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,560 Speaker 1: I think that's where voters really their minds are. So anyway, 627 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 1: thank you for that question. I really appreciate it. Monday, 628 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: I'll be back with a full episode I think on 629 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 1: the economy, but it might be an AI, it'd be 630 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: one of the other though. We're going to a great episode. 631 00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 1: And please, I mean more questions on asking me anything. 632 00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 1: Ryan at numbers gamepodcast dot com. I always appreciate it. 633 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 1: Thank you guys for listening. Please like and subscribe on YouTube, 634 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 1: on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, wherever you get your podcasts. 635 00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 1: I appreciate you all. Thank you. Have a great weekend.