1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg eleventh to Washington, d 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:12,119 Speaker 1: C Bloomberg to Boston Bloomberg twelve unders to San Francisco 3 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine six to the Country Series Exam Channel one 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 1: ninety and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Aben 5 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomwork Surveillance. Good morning, eight 6 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: thirty on Wall Street at Michael McKee along with Tom Keener. 7 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: Economic indicators are brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 1: When it's time to change the conversation, talk with a 9 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: broker dealer, r I A that's ready to listen call 10 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: eight six six six two three six three eight or 11 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: is it Commonwealth dot com to learn more? No eight 12 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: thirty numbers this morning. However, we have a host of 13 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: numbers at ten o'clock, including the FEDS Labor Market Conditions Index, 14 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: which incorporates the number of unemployed in various categories. Danny 15 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 1: Blanche Flower, I'll be looking at that factory orders are 16 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: out and durable goods, which is interesting. It's a subcategory 17 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: of factory orders, so we get an update on durable goods. 18 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: And we also have two FED speakers today, Eric Rosen 19 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: Gred at nine thirty and Neil cash Kari at seven 20 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,479 Speaker 1: o'clock tonight in their town halland too big to fame. 21 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: And we'll get to this in a moment. I know 22 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: you've got an esteemed guest. I first want to uh 23 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: mentioned Mike Ian Bremer publishes his first comments on this 24 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: Panama uproar. This is eleven million documents. Dr Bremer calls 25 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: it a thousand times bigger than Wiki leaks and just 26 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:31,119 Speaker 1: a quick summary. If this is as close to as 27 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 1: big as I suspect it is, we'll be writing about 28 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 1: the geopolitical implications for years. That for me, And he was, 29 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 1: he was all over Twitter with that observation yesterday and 30 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 1: noting how many world leaders and countries are involved in this, 31 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 1: uh fascinating. John Tucker looking down, John Tucker looking down 32 00:01:52,120 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: right now, we saw that for there's Panama. I think 33 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: there's a song about all right, let's bring in Scott 34 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: right now. He's senior vice president, chief economist at Raymond 35 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: James and Associates. He's down in Tampa where they are 36 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: so beyond the n C Double A basketball tournament. It's 37 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 1: baseball season. They have already opened the season. Unfortunately, the 38 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: Tampa a Rays loose to the Blue Jays yesterday. But 39 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: other than that, sunny skies down there, optimism about the 40 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 1: economy and how things are going. Yeah, the weather has 41 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: been really nice and are really nice Sunday. Always tough 42 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: to come in to work on Monday. Um. But you know, Florida, 43 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: you know, economy is doing pretty well down here. The 44 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: the economy stupid is the of course mantra of those 45 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: involved in politics and elections. And I note that you 46 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 1: had a candidate in the Republican campaign from Florida. You 47 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: have sent it race to uh fill that seat. Uh. 48 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 1: In general, how do people feel about the economy and 49 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 1: where it's going from here? Well, I think, you know, 50 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: it's it's reflective of the nation as a whole. Down 51 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: here that you've got the certain portion of the population 52 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: has done done very well. We've seen you know, pretty 53 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: good recovery in the job market here. Home prices are rising. Um. 54 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: But you still have a lot of people that are 55 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: worried about the you know, where they stand in the economy. 56 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: They may not necessarily have a participated in in the 57 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: you know, the full sense of the of the economic recovery. 58 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:36,119 Speaker 1: So there's still you know, a bit of a sense 59 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: of malaise for those at the lower end of the 60 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,119 Speaker 1: income scale. Um, I don't think that's too unusual. Well, 61 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: when you talk to people around the country, and I've 62 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 1: been traveling for the last ten days or so, I 63 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: mean you get this sense everybody. Like Sally Crochet told 64 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: us earlier today, business is pretty good for for her 65 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: company and the people she talks to, and yet there's 66 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: a lack of confidence in the future. Is that the 67 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: kind of the feeling you get. Uh, yeah, there's that, 68 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: that sense of unease. Um. Certainly, you know the global 69 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: news over the last six months or so have have 70 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: contributed that. Obviously, the um the election cycle here, Um, 71 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of of just nasty rhetoric 72 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: about the economy, about how horrible things are. Um. You know, 73 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: I've got approached by a Trump supporter saying, oh, yeah, 74 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: he's gonna bring jobs back, and you know, do you 75 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 1: realize we've added more than five and a half million 76 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 1: jobs just in the last two years alone. So there's 77 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: you know, the people just don't appreciate that. Man. Again, 78 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 1: I think it's because a lot of people are left behind. 79 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: But this happens in every economic recovery. Perceptions are slow 80 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: to change. And then this was obviously a very very 81 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 1: severe recession, so it's still gonna be sometime, I think 82 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: before we get that really sense that things are firing 83 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: on all cylinders. What what is a global recession? How 84 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 1: do you measure that? Scott bro Well, the I mm, well, 85 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: I'll tell you that I am Matthews to describe it 86 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: as three percent GDP growth because you've got a lot 87 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: of countries that are growing very rapidly around the world, 88 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: smaller emerging economies. Um, it's now sort of viewed as uh, 89 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: you know, maybe three percent adjusted for population growth, so 90 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: that's maybe a bit lower. But you know, there's a 91 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: sense when you look around the world, um that even 92 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 1: you know, whether or not we're seeing a decline in 93 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 1: global activity, that doesn't seem likely, but it is subpar um. 94 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 1: You know, China obviously is going through a major transition 95 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: in the in the in effects economic structure. Latin America 96 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: in particularly Brazil's having a very hard time. Europe's store 97 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: of struggling, and you know, we're bouncing around here. You know, 98 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: we're gonna have some soft quarters that it does look 99 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:45,840 Speaker 1: like the first quarter GDP numbers are going to be 100 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: a lot softer than we hope to see. But I 101 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: think a lot of that is just the arithmetic, the 102 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: way the ball bounces where the numbers lie. Uh. And 103 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 1: we should see you know, somewhat of a pickup in 104 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 1: in uh in the second quarter, in the second half 105 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: of the year. The uh, lack of confidence you see 106 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: in any only about thirty seconds here, but then we'll 107 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: come back. Uh. Does it translate into people who call 108 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: Raymond James to investor? People still investing very consciously? I 109 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: think so that there's a sense of nervousness out there. 110 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: People are sort of confused by all the news reports. Um, 111 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 1: you know, you're bounced around in terms of what the 112 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 1: Fed's gonna do. You're worried about what's going on in 113 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 1: the rest of the world. Uh. And there's not a 114 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: real clear sense and you know that, you know, it 115 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: feeds through the general public, but it also feeds all 116 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: the way through policymakers. You know, we're gonna get those 117 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: see me. And it's on on Wednesday. And one of 118 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: the key elements I think people are gonna be looking 119 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 1: for the dispersion of FED official opinions, and I think 120 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 1: the real key is going to be, Wow, what do 121 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: they see about this this uncertainty that's going on now? 122 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: What do they see about the balance of the rest? 123 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 1: I think that's going to be important. Scott Brown is 124 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: chief academists at Raymond James in Tampa's gonna come back. 125 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 1: We're gonna fine tune this. I particularly want to talk 126 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: to about trade dynamics and do you really need to 127 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 1: pull that into an analysis of what we're doing or 128 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 1: what the US is doing. Of course what it means 129 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: back over into markets as well, futures churning a little 130 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: bit of a left futures up to Let's check in 131 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: with Michael barn Now and get the latest world of 132 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 1: national headlines. Mike, Tom, thank you very much. A well 133 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: known restaurant popular with CHII paramilitary militia fighters took the 134 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: brunt of a wave of suicide attacks in Iraq today. 135 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: Fourteen people were killed in that blast. Three other attacks 136 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: brought the overall death toll to at least twenty nine. 137 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: Iraqi forces backed by a US led coalition have advanced 138 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,119 Speaker 1: against the Islamic State, but the extremists have struck back 139 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: with bombing's targeting civilians. How Speaker Paul Ryan is in Israel. 140 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: Ryan on his first trip abroad, as Speaker told members 141 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: of Parliament, it was important for him to come to 142 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: Jerusalem to reinforce strong ties between the US and Israel. 143 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: Ryan also met with Israeli Priminister Benjamin net Yahoo. Democratic 144 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: presidential candidate Hillary Clinton says she is starting to focus 145 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: her campaign more on the Republican presidential candidates and less 146 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: on her differences with rival Bernie Sanders. Clinton spoke on 147 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: ABC's Good Morning America. I'm going to keep standing up 148 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: to Donald Trump, Ted Cruise or anybody else who are 149 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: saying things that are so contrary to who we are. 150 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: That gets to my last test. Can you unify the 151 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: country or do you want to divide us even more 152 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 1: than we already are? Global News twenty four hours a day, 153 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 1: powered by our twenty four hundred journalists and more than 154 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. I 155 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: am Michael Barr, Mike Tom Thank you, Michael. Time now 156 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,319 Speaker 1: if the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update, and for that we 157 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 1: bring in John stash Our. John. Michael just got word 158 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: that the Yankee opener today at the State of against 159 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: Houston has been postponed bad weather, so no game today. 160 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: They will instead start the season tomorrow. Met start of 161 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: the season last night in Kansas City. Royals beat him 162 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: in the World Series last fall, beat him last night 163 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: for three US in Volcast six Corals settings. Lucas Duda 164 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: had a two on single in a three round eighthitty 165 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:05,559 Speaker 1: and the Mets at two on in the ninth with 166 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 1: David Wright and U n Ss but it struck out Sess. 167 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: But it's also dropped a routine flyball in the first 168 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: inning that led to k c rod Mets manager Terry Collins. 169 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: And early in the game, we made Bolks really work, 170 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: had got his pitch count up pretty high early, and uh, 171 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: you know, we just couldn't put a you know, a 172 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: big hit on the board. But late in the game 173 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: against that they'd got Those are those are very good bats. 174 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: Paul Losses for the Knicks and Nets at the Garden, 175 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 1: Indiana won the second quarter of thirty six to eighteen 176 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: that held on at the end ninety two to eighty 177 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: seven in Brooklyn, All New Orleans, one of six eighties 178 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: seven over the Nets Yukon women one win from an 179 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,719 Speaker 1: eleventh n C double a championship, fourth in a row, 180 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 1: the usual upset eighty a usual uh blow lot, I 181 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: should say eighty to fifty one over Oregon State, Yukon 182 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: seventy fourth straight win, all of them by double digit 183 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 1: suercuse peat Washington title games tomorrow night, and the Men 184 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: played tonight in Houston, North Carolina, going for its sixth 185 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 1: ever championship. The only other one for Villanova was as 186 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: the Cinderella up sitting Georgetown back in nineteen eighty five 187 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:03,560 Speaker 1: with Bloomer NBC Sports Update. I'm John, John, I thank 188 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 1: you so much. I've got UNC in the final Michael McKee, 189 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: the final bracket I've got. I went with a low 190 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: number of points, a hundred and twelve, which I don't 191 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: think will be well. That was, you know, both teams 192 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: are scoring the fifties, so I'm going with a hundred 193 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: and fifty, which gives him me, you know, in the 194 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 1: seventies something like that. I should also point out, as 195 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: I have UNC in the final bracket, I have had. 196 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: It was sweet one for me. I had fifteen wrong. 197 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: Here's a note on inflation um and we're talking about baseball. 198 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:37,959 Speaker 1: MLB Live, you know, the service where you can watch 199 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 1: all the games back this year twenty cheaper for the 200 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: same thing. That's really interesting. Interesting. You know you wonder 201 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: about disinflationary numbers, that that's not a bad thing for 202 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: the economy, but it pushes down on the inflation. We 203 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: need to talk about that. That's important. Bloomberg Surveillance Stay 204 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: with us please. Bloomberg s Avalance brought you by Withem 205 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: Smith and Brown CPAs audit, tax and advisory services to 206 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: help your business be in a position of strength. Experienced 207 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: the Withhem way by visiting with him dot com, the 208 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: Global business News twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 209 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus mobile app and on your radio. 210 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. 211 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 1: This update has brought to you by Eisener Amper, Hedge Week, 212 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 1: Institutional Investor all credit intelligence fund managers reading these publications 213 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 1: Frank Eisener Amper High for Excellence and Clients service find 214 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: out why Eisener Emper dot Com slash Excellence stocks are 215 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: rising along with U Stock Index future as amid optimism, 216 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 1: Central Banks will continue to support the global economy to 217 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 1: check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 218 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: On Bloomberg SNP even the futures up two and a 219 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,199 Speaker 1: half points Dowie Many futures have nine NASA doc E. 220 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 1: Many futures up two and a half the decks in 221 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: Germany's upstate stands per set ten Your treasury little change 222 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: yield one point seven six per set. Now I'm ex 223 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 1: scrude oil down four tenths per cent or fifteen cents 224 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 1: to thirty six sixty three of arrel comes gold is 225 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,839 Speaker 1: little change now ninety cents to twelve seventy announced the 226 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: euro a dollar thirt the and one eleven point four five. 227 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,839 Speaker 1: Westlake Chemical says it will start a proxy battle for 228 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: control of Axiol Corporation after the company rejected a revise 229 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: takeover bid of twenty three dollars thirty five cents a share. 230 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,079 Speaker 1: An Alaska Air Group agreed to buy Virgin America for 231 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: two point six billion dollars. Virgins up almost forty percent 232 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 1: in early trading. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and 233 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: Mike Karen, thank you so much. As we begin the 234 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 1: second quarter, it is on Wall Street. The following is 235 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg View opinions in commentary from Bloomberg columnists I'm 236 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: Mark white House, an editor at Bloomberg View. Anyone wondering 237 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,319 Speaker 1: why so many white middle aged men are drawn to 238 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: anti establishment rhetoric of the Donald Trump variety should take 239 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: a look at the latest jobs port. They're still having 240 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 1: a hard time getting back to work. On average, over 241 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 1: the three months through March, eighty six percent of white 242 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: men between the ages of twenty five and fifty four 243 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: were employed. That might sound like a lot, but it's 244 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: actually two point three percentage points, or about one point 245 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 1: one million jobs short of the prerecession level, a larger 246 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: shortfall than for any other mix of gender and race. 247 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: The malaise goes beyond the political. If all those prime 248 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,439 Speaker 1: age workers don't get back into the labor force, their 249 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: absence could permanently impair the economy's ability to grow. Some 250 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: economists think more stimulus could help. Others think that the 251 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: motivation sapping effects of long term unemployment, among other things, 252 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: will keep the labor participation rate down. Whatever happens, this 253 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: is a demographic group to be reckoned with. The more 254 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,839 Speaker 1: they feel left behind, the stranger US politics may become. 255 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: I'm Mark Whitehouse, an editor of Bloomberg View. For more, 256 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,719 Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion and commentary. Please go to bloomberg View dot 257 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: com or view go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has 258 00:13:54,840 --> 00:14:00,559 Speaker 1: been Bloomberg View Bloomberview commentary's compared hourly weekdays. I'm Bloomberg 259 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: News on Bloomberg Radio, Michael. This is outrageous. If Peyton 260 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: Manning and the Denver Broncos had a little bit of snow, 261 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 1: they would have played yes. This however, being baseball bad 262 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: news for all of you on Wall Street. With Yankees 263 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 1: opening day tickets, You're going to have to work today. 264 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: You have to figure out how it works with getting 265 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: out of the office Tomorrow. The game has been postponed 266 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: the Yankees making an official. The weather forecast just too bad, 267 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 1: gonna rain and sleet all day Tomorrow. Weather is supposed 268 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: to be in the forties and sunny should be nice. 269 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: So they will take on the Astros tomorrow afternoon. Tom uh. 270 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: No word yet on the Red Sox. They are opening 271 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: the season this afternoon in Cleveland, where there is a 272 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: forecast for rain and sleet. How are the game not 273 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: till four pm Eastern? So maybe they get it. You know, 274 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 1: it goes beyond they get passed over. I gotta get 275 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 1: a about is Cleveland south or than New York Cleveland? Really? Yeah, 276 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: I think maybe it is. Well, it's a good question. 277 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 1: I'd like to know that Zip over to ESPN has 278 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 1: a Red Sox with a four point eight percent likelihood 279 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: to win the World Series, distancing the Yankees at three 280 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 1: point four percent. I think that's funny. Yeah, well, any 281 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: even the slightly north of we are being informed? Why 282 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 1: are you ant telling us that's you don't think of that? 283 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 1: I mean why you is just a funt of of 284 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: of knowledge. And that's why we hire these young college 285 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: kids so they can he just things. He knows the 286 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: entire alphabet, including Google search. Yeah, but there we are. 287 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: Good Poe, Michael, good to have you back. Who do 288 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: we have with us right now? We're talking about Scott Brown, 289 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: who is definitely south of us and not worried about 290 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: whether it's going to rain or not today. And they 291 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: wouldn't worry anyways, because of course the race play indoors. Um. 292 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 1: When we had the jobs report Scott over the weekend 293 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: the uh Friday, well we'll call that the weekend. Um, 294 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: it wasn't bad, you know overall, Um, And you mentioned 295 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: the fact people don't seem to realize that, um, things 296 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: are going reasonably well. But if they don't, and if 297 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: companies are so uncertain about what's going on out there, 298 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 1: why do they keep hiring? That's a good question. UM. 299 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 1: You know, we've we've often feared that, you know, fears 300 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: of recession could become self fulfilling. Uh. And with businesses, 301 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: they do have to act in terms of capital spending. 302 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: But capital spending is a much bigger, you know thought 303 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: than than just hiring somebody. UM. I mean, there are 304 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: training costs with with hiring a new worker, but it's 305 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 1: typically much easier to let them go if you buy uh, 306 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 1: you know, a new machine or you know, new uh, 307 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: new plant capacity, then you're still stuck with that if 308 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: the economy does flow so uh. It an odd mix 309 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 1: where capital investment certainly is trending softly down at this point, 310 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 1: but the hiring is still going strong. A lot of 311 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,880 Speaker 1: that strength is coming from UM, younger firms, new firms, UM, 312 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 1: you know, small medium sized firms. And that's really important 313 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 1: because we really looked to those firms to account for 314 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 1: much of the job growth during an economic expansion. So 315 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: it's it's all very healthy. That's a good question. Or 316 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,679 Speaker 1: a good point, because you're saying that we are seeing 317 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 1: the kind of entrepreneurs that we need to see, which 318 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 1: suggests they can get funding. Uh, and they can get 319 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: started and they have ideas in their hiring. Yeah. I mean, 320 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: one of the big stories that we had during this 321 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 1: recession was a real tightening and credit to small businesses. Uh. 322 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 1: And during the housing boom, if you wanted to start 323 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:52,679 Speaker 1: your own business, you went to your banking game, your 324 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 1: credit score, your pledged, your house is collateral, and it 325 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 1: was almost that easy to get a business loan. And 326 00:17:57,680 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 1: now certainly, you know, they want a lot more than 327 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 1: your c to score. They want to see you a 328 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 1: business plan, and I certainly don't want your house is 329 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:07,160 Speaker 1: collateral anymore. So that business formation has been very very 330 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: slow to recover, but it has been picking up gradually 331 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: and credit is getting you know, gradually, it's still relatively 332 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 1: tight for small firms, but it is getting gradually better. Uh. 333 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 1: And you know you're really seeing that that expanded that 334 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 1: you know, it's sort of the great success of the 335 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,640 Speaker 1: American economy. Is we always well, I like the idea 336 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 1: of creative destruction. Let me bring it over to the 337 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: creative destruction world. Trade. This is something we've emphasized on 338 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 1: surveillance for three or four weeks. I see all of 339 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: a sudden, a huge pickuff. How do you fold into 340 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:39,920 Speaker 1: your analysis the and I'm using this in a media sense, 341 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: the quote unquote collapse of trade. Is it tangible? Is 342 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: its secondary to a bundle it on and say forget 343 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: about it? How do you deal with that? Well, the 344 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 1: month and the month numbers are going to drive you 345 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 1: crazy because there's a lot of variation for months and months. 346 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 1: So you kind of want to look at the trends 347 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 1: and the trends over the last year. It's kind of 348 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 1: actually interesting. Um. You know, you're looking at um, you know, 349 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: a drop in trade active you, but it's mostly prices 350 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 1: rather than quantity. I mean, we're we're importing um more stuff, 351 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 1: but we're also paying a lot less for that stuff. 352 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,120 Speaker 1: So imports have been been flat or even down slightly 353 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: in nominal terms. And then if you look at exports, well, 354 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: we export a lot of agriculture goods, we export a 355 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 1: lot of raw materials, and those prices are down substantially 356 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: um and that's where a lot of the weaknesses um um. 357 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: It's more of a price issue than than a quantity 358 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: issue for for a lot of the Okay, this is 359 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: critical folks. With the partial differentiator here, you're telling me 360 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: price movement is overwhelming. A better unit story. I think so. 361 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: I think you as as you look through the detailed numbers, 362 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: um and um, you know the dropping exports again, a 363 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 1: lot of that is agriculture. The fact that the farm 364 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: prices are are a lot lower UM and raw materials 365 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: just just just that whole collapse in the raw MATERI gals, 366 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 1: because we have poored a lot of raw materials, but 367 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: we also export raw materials. Grect. That wasn't really intelligent, 368 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: Scott Brown, thank you so much. With Raymond James, really 369 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,440 Speaker 1: appreciate that. And um, this is something. This is a 370 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: theme that everybody's picking up on his analysis a foreign 371 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: trade and how Mike that folds into the next FED meeting, 372 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 1: how it folds into the Atlanta GDP now is doing. 373 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:26,399 Speaker 1: How it folds in really to the market enthusiasm. Given 374 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:30,439 Speaker 1: what we heard from Cheryl Chery yelling at the Economic Club, Mike, 375 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: did you go to the lunch of the Economic Club 376 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: of New York? This is what vacations the worst hotel 377 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 1: lunch ever. We'll leave the hotel name. I didn't eat 378 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,199 Speaker 1: it was it was I could just you looked at 379 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,679 Speaker 1: it and you just I mean the salad was from 380 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: easter Um. Stephen Morris, No, not the guitar player Stephen 381 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: Morris in San Francisco. Stephen P. Morris has the greatest 382 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: calculator on the Internet, Mike of kelculating the latitude in 383 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: degrees and minutes. New York City, as the Crow flies, 384 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: is forty seven point one miles south of Cleveland. There 385 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,360 Speaker 1: you go. And I didn't know that it's seventy six kilometers, 386 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: but I you don't figure it out. I think that's right. 387 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 1: Don't hold me to it. We did it. It's like 388 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: one latitude degree, and it's to be honest, y you, 389 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: it's not even one degree. It's like it's like fifty 390 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: eight minutes or you know, seconds or whatever they do. 391 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: But they got a calculator here. You could do anything 392 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: on the internet except tie a boat. So it's amazing. Well, 393 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 1: I guess clearly, if New York is that far south, 394 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 1: we need to wear sunscreen today even though it's snowing. 395 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: But Cleveland is, yeah, Cleveland South. In Cleveland South. Here 396 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 1: there's a lot of because of elliptical earth spherical geometry. 397 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: When we think we're looking out to Portugal on a 398 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: spherical basis, we're like looking at you know, they're waving 399 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: back from the west coast of Africa. Why is the 400 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: Mediterranean so warm? And everybody goes to the Mediterranean when 401 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 1: it's north of us. It's called the ghost that what 402 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 1: it is somebody out of their nose and will send 403 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: me a scathing tweet about how stupid I am. Where else, folks, 404 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 1: can you get geometry and X y z space spherical 405 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: geometry besides Bloomberg surveillance