WEBVTT - Walmart Adds Share as Value Perception Builds

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Among those stops on the decline today two point six

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<v Speaker 2>percent lower. In fact, is Walmart's staying at its worst levels.

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<v Speaker 2>That despite the world's largest retailer lifting its annual profit

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<v Speaker 2>outlook again. But you know what else was with it? Tim,

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<v Speaker 2>a bit of a cautious tone.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's always good to look at the commentary, and

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<v Speaker 3>perhaps this is why the stock is lower. The cautious

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<v Speaker 3>tone on consumers in the US economy. Walmart said that

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<v Speaker 3>the rising borrowing costs, Okay, we know that those are

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<v Speaker 3>hitting consumers. Look at what's happening to you know, credit

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<v Speaker 3>card loans, people having to pay off those, and then

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<v Speaker 3>of course mortgage rates as well, and the resumption of

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<v Speaker 3>student loan repayments will add to the strain on US

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<v Speaker 3>household budgets in the coming months. We've got a great

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<v Speaker 3>guest with us this afternoon. It is with more on

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<v Speaker 3>the results outlook and on the company that is the

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<v Speaker 3>world's largest retailer. We got Bloomberg Intelligence senior retail staples

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<v Speaker 3>and packaged food analysts Jen bartashis. She is joining us

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<v Speaker 3>from New Jersey this afternoon. So why are shares of

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<v Speaker 3>Walmart lower?

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<v Speaker 4>Jen? Well, I think you nailed it when you were

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<v Speaker 4>talking about this in the intro, and it's really just

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<v Speaker 4>that conservative outlook. And you have to remember, for retail,

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<v Speaker 4>back to school and holiday are the most important seasons

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<v Speaker 4>of the year. So if Walmart's striking a cautious tone

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<v Speaker 4>headed into those key seasons, that's probably what's pulling the

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<v Speaker 4>stock down a little bit this afternoon.

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<v Speaker 2>It's like one of those like, uh, what was the

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<v Speaker 2>cautious Was the cautionary?

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<v Speaker 3>Was the caution with the actual outlook when it came

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<v Speaker 3>to numbers, or was it the commentary that we repeated

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<v Speaker 3>there about student loan repayments and borrowing costs.

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<v Speaker 4>It's more about the commentary about the state of the consumer.

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<v Speaker 4>Because Walmart's numbers were great, and you know, the appeal

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<v Speaker 4>of their value proposition is continuing to grow. So when

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<v Speaker 4>you listen to what management's talking about their gaining share

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<v Speaker 4>in some critical areas like grocery, and you know, but

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<v Speaker 4>it's that cautious tone. And the problem is that grocery

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<v Speaker 4>is a great business, but it's not a high margin business.

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<v Speaker 4>And so for Walmart to really be successful, they want

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<v Speaker 4>to incorporate some of more of that general merchandise sales.

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<v Speaker 4>And those are the things that are important to back

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<v Speaker 4>to school and holidays.

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<v Speaker 2>And for those who missed, and I bet Jen heard

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<v Speaker 2>at first hand the CEO Doug McMillan of Walmart said

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<v Speaker 2>on that conference call with investors and analysts, the good stuff, jobs, wages,

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<v Speaker 2>and pockets of a disinflation are helping our customers. That's

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<v Speaker 2>the good stuff. The bad stuff, but rising energy prices,

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<v Speaker 2>resuming student loan payments, higher borrowing costs and tightening lending

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<v Speaker 2>standards and a draw down in excess savings mean that

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<v Speaker 2>household budgets are still under pressure. I mean, Jen, that's

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<v Speaker 2>a big laundry list. And especially for customers that typically

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<v Speaker 2>shop at Walmart, I mean, you're talking about a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of Americans. This is where they shop and that's a big,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, stress list, if you.

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<v Speaker 4>Will, It really is. And what we're seeing and what

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<v Speaker 4>the patterns so far the year has been is that

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<v Speaker 4>people do want to spend, but they're being super selective

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<v Speaker 4>on where they're doing it, which means that they're saving

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<v Speaker 4>everywhere else that they can. And so where you know,

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<v Speaker 4>you do see that people are still going on trips,

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<v Speaker 4>they're still going on vacation, they're still going out to

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<v Speaker 4>dinner for special occasions. That's where they're choosing to do

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<v Speaker 4>that little bit of splurge. But they're making up for

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<v Speaker 4>that splurge by saving and saving, saving, cutting down on

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<v Speaker 4>other expenditures. And that's part of what the behavior that

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<v Speaker 4>we're seeing happen at Walmart as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Go ahead, Carol, Well, Tim and I constantly talk about, well,

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<v Speaker 2>you know Amazon, I need something, go to Amazon. I

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<v Speaker 2>just did a big thing last night because I know

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<v Speaker 2>it's easy to return and stuff.

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<v Speaker 3>But tell us what, Well, I was going to say,

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<v Speaker 3>I heard Jen, I heard you this morning on surveillance

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<v Speaker 3>and you were like speaking to me. I think you

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<v Speaker 3>said everybody goes to Walmart for something? Is that what

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<v Speaker 3>you said?

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<v Speaker 4>It is?

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<v Speaker 2>It is?

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<v Speaker 3>And it's true, so true, Carol, because I do the

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<v Speaker 3>vast majority of our shopping at Amazon. But because I

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<v Speaker 3>have American Express, I'm able to join like the Walmart

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<v Speaker 3>Amazon Prime thing whatever it's called for free, like you

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<v Speaker 3>can join that for free, and if we need something

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<v Speaker 3>that's not available on Amazon, we do it at Walmart.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's like the same thing as Prime.

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<v Speaker 2>So Jen talked to us about Walmart Plus, how big

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<v Speaker 2>a deal is it and how much of a growth

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<v Speaker 2>engine it potentially is or will be for Walmart.

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<v Speaker 4>So Walmart Plus started about two years ago, so it's

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<v Speaker 4>still a pretty new program, but it does compete with

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<v Speaker 4>Amazon Prime, and I think it is going to really

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<v Speaker 4>become a very powerful driver for both sales and profit

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<v Speaker 4>for the company over the next five years. We actually

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<v Speaker 4>published a research piece on this earlier this week where

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<v Speaker 4>we think over the next five years it can add

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred to one hundred and sixty billion dollars in

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<v Speaker 4>revenue for Walmart. And that's just on that's just on

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<v Speaker 4>that on that program, and if you put it in perspective,

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<v Speaker 4>that's the size of target, right. So it has the

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<v Speaker 4>potential to really be a differentiator for Walmart. And part

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<v Speaker 4>of the reason for that is that it appeals exactly

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<v Speaker 4>to what people want, which is convenience and access to

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<v Speaker 4>low prices. And so the fact that you can have

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<v Speaker 4>deliveries of groceries or things that are in store to

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<v Speaker 4>your house on the same day with no fee associated

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<v Speaker 4>with it is a pretty powerful engine for them to

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<v Speaker 4>build off of.

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<v Speaker 3>Can they do it in a way that gives them margins?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah? And you know, if you think about the way

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<v Speaker 4>a retailer makes the most margin, it's when somebody comes

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<v Speaker 4>into the store, buy something and takes it out to

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<v Speaker 4>their current takes it home themselves. The next most profitable

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<v Speaker 4>thing is when somebody comes and they pick it up

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<v Speaker 4>at the store curbside and then take it home. And

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<v Speaker 4>then the third is one it's shipped to your house. Right,

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<v Speaker 4>So what Walmart has done is that part of the

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<v Speaker 4>value proposition is that curbside pickup and so that business

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<v Speaker 4>has been growing very quickly for Walmart and is getting

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of adoption. So that's actually a pretty a

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<v Speaker 4>pretty good way to engage digital customers without having a

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<v Speaker 4>margin drag that you would associate with things that have

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<v Speaker 4>to be shipped to your home.

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<v Speaker 3>We live so Caroly and I live in Carroll's in

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<v Speaker 3>New Jersey. I'm in Brooklyn, which just outside, so you're

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<v Speaker 3>in the sun. What I'm saying is you're in the city,

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<v Speaker 3>You're not like driving to these places to actually pick

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<v Speaker 3>stuff up. Now, when I was on printal leave while

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<v Speaker 3>we were visiting my parents in California, and my sister

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<v Speaker 3>was like ordering stuff from Target and we'd go, we'd

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<v Speaker 3>drive there, they would I mean, anyone listening who has

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<v Speaker 3>a car is actually laughing at me the fact that

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<v Speaker 3>I'm like talking about this. But it's such a we're

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<v Speaker 3>such strange animals in New York City because we don't

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<v Speaker 3>take advantage of these programs. But I will tell you

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<v Speaker 3>it is so easy to order something on one of

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<v Speaker 3>these apps and then drive up to the curb and

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<v Speaker 3>they literally bring it out to your car.

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<v Speaker 2>I will tell you my daughter who goes to school

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<v Speaker 2>six hours outside of New York City in a southern state,

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<v Speaker 2>it's much more like residential and so and so forth.

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<v Speaker 2>I remember one of the years we were driving to

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<v Speaker 2>her school and Jen along the way, we kept ordering

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<v Speaker 2>from Target, like she's like, oh, I need this, So

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<v Speaker 2>we'll be like, okay, well in an hour, we'll be

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<v Speaker 2>at this Target and we would just pick up curbside,

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<v Speaker 2>and it was incredible.

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<v Speaker 4>And it's that convenience that's really driving the success of

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<v Speaker 4>these retailers because they're not only offering value, but it's convenience.

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<v Speaker 4>And this is where for Walmart's perspective. You know, Amazon

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<v Speaker 4>is a behemoth and they're very good at what they do.

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<v Speaker 4>But Walmart has been building out the size of its marketplace.

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<v Speaker 4>The number of sellers on its marketplace is becoming more competitive,

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<v Speaker 4>and that powerful engine of being able to pick things

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<v Speaker 4>up at the store at your convenience or have it

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<v Speaker 4>delivered to your home same day is a pretty good

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<v Speaker 4>strategy that they're following.

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<v Speaker 3>What's that stat Jen with the X percentage of the

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<v Speaker 3>US population lives within you know, just a couple miles

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<v Speaker 3>of a Walmart.

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<v Speaker 4>It's like over eighty five percent of the US population

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<v Speaker 4>lives within a ten mile radius of a Walmart.

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<v Speaker 3>I believe is what incredible the company has said.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, so you were sitting down with Doug McMillan

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<v Speaker 2>and you wanted to I don't know, you had two

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<v Speaker 2>minutes with him. What would be the question you would

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<v Speaker 2>ask him?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I would ask him about things for the company

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<v Speaker 4>hasn't really given a lot of disclosure. I would ask

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<v Speaker 4>him about the size of their membership for Walmart. Plus,

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<v Speaker 4>I would ask him about the current profitability level of

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<v Speaker 4>their of their online business. These are things that we

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<v Speaker 4>know they're building, things that we know that they're working on,

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<v Speaker 4>but we don't have a lot of detail behind it

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<v Speaker 4>yet to understand how profitable it is or will be

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<v Speaker 4>for the company long term.

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<v Speaker 2>Ye, and it's matth I'm like, look at your research

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<v Speaker 2>to about you know, advertising revenue at Walmart. Like it's

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<v Speaker 2>just this company that the broad reach by just evolving.

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<v Speaker 3>Jen, you're the best you've been up since, like you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the crack of dawn covering this stuff. We love it

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<v Speaker 3>when you join us and we get to talk. Also,

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<v Speaker 3>just be honest, do Carol and I just sound like

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<v Speaker 3>complete luttites the fact that we just found out about

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<v Speaker 3>this curb side pickup.

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<v Speaker 2>At a little while.

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<v Speaker 4>Not in the least.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, goody, Jen, And no worry, it's just back to

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<v Speaker 2>school shopping is next and oh yeah the holiday shopping season,

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<v Speaker 2>so you'll get plenty of rest or not listen, we do.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's going to be a busy second half

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<v Speaker 4>of the year, let's put it that way.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we'll be checking in with you, no doubt about it.

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<v Speaker 2>Jen Bartasha's she's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Retail Stables and package

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<v Speaker 2>food analysts really a must read among our Bloomberg Intelligence team,

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<v Speaker 2>and so appreciate her finding some time Walmart chairs, though

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<v Speaker 2>still under pressure. In today's straight.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 1>Live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know if he would pall, but Bill Gates

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<v Speaker 2>back in March talked about seeing an artificial intelligence system

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<v Speaker 2>ac tricky medical examination and how it represented the most

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<v Speaker 2>important advance in technology since the graphical user interface. The

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<v Speaker 2>guy uh. He said that software that, of course lets

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<v Speaker 2>people to more easily interact with computers, and in the

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen eighty set the standard for modern operating systems, including

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<v Speaker 2>Microsoft's Windows.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the gooey Carol, that gooey gewey.

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<v Speaker 2>I said that, I know, gueye wooey.

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<v Speaker 3>Gooey wooey, but keep it in mind. Incredible statement.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it is right you think about how game changing

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<v Speaker 2>that was. Keep in mind, Microsoft has an app. It's

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<v Speaker 2>called the DAX app. It's powered by AI. It's from

0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:07.040
<v Speaker 2>the company's Nuanced division, and it transcribes doctors and patients comments,

0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:10.360
<v Speaker 2>then creates a clinical physician summary formatted for an electronic

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<v Speaker 2>health record. So AI in helping out doctors.

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<v Speaker 3>It's an episode actually of the Bloomer Originals video series

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<v Speaker 3>AI I RL earlier this year. It can be found

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<v Speaker 3>on our streaming surface service. With more on the topic

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<v Speaker 3>and curious if AI is yet penetrating his world, We

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<v Speaker 3>got back with us doctor Ian Luspader. He's clinical professor

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<v Speaker 3>of Medicine at NYU Lango and Medical Center. He joins

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<v Speaker 3>us on Zoom from New York City, Doctor Lusbater, How

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<v Speaker 3>are you.

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<v Speaker 5>Great to see you guys, Carol and Tim. Tim, congratulations

0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:41.440
<v Speaker 5>on the new born. Hope ball is going well.

0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:43.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, all is going well. Thank you very much. Hey,

0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.480
<v Speaker 3>how is that AI hitting your world? I mean, the

0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:48.480
<v Speaker 3>medical community is one where I got to tell you

0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:50.920
<v Speaker 3>sometimes I'm still required to send faxes.

0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:53.160
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:57.840
<v Speaker 5>Well, well, we're not there yet, but AI has tremendous potential,

0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:02.839
<v Speaker 5>and AI functions in many ways like a person or

0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:07.360
<v Speaker 5>a doctorate takes a lot of data points, analyzes it

0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:12.320
<v Speaker 5>and process it and comes up with some conclusions. We're

0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:16.080
<v Speaker 5>still not quite there integrating in every way. But the

0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:22.480
<v Speaker 5>potential is enormous, from scheduling appointments, to pre interviewing patients

0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:26.800
<v Speaker 5>to find out what they're coming in for, assisting with

0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:28.840
<v Speaker 5>a diagnosis in the exam room.

0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:31.640
<v Speaker 3>Well, talk about that part, assisting with the diagnosis. That's

0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:34.240
<v Speaker 3>that's really interesting to me because what you guys as

0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:36.120
<v Speaker 3>doctors try to do. And look, I didn't go to

0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:39.520
<v Speaker 3>medical school, but I've been to plenty of doctors. You

0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:43.839
<v Speaker 3>ask so many questions about symptoms, and each time somebody

0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:47.960
<v Speaker 3>answers a question about that symptom, you know, there's sort

0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.600
<v Speaker 3>of this calculation that goes on inside a doctor's head. Okay,

0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:51.840
<v Speaker 3>it could be this, or it could be this, and

0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.680
<v Speaker 3>you keep investigating. So how do you use how do

0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:58.560
<v Speaker 3>you use you know, first the internet or databases right now?

0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:00.559
<v Speaker 3>And how do you think that can be aided AI.

0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:06.079
<v Speaker 5>So we, in a very similar way, extract information. A

0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.000
<v Speaker 5>patient comes in with a complaint or an issue. We

0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:12.839
<v Speaker 5>review a variety of questions that helps us hone in

0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:17.400
<v Speaker 5>eliminate certain things and gives us the most likely diagnosis

0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.560
<v Speaker 5>based on history, and then we get additional information from

0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:24.080
<v Speaker 5>tests or labs to try and make a specific diagnosis.

0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:27.800
<v Speaker 5>And then a specific treatment. AI can be very helpful

0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 5>because it can also process a lot of questions, either

0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:38.600
<v Speaker 5>interrogate the patient or review lab data and kind of

0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 5>synthesize the information. And we see this most helpfully for example,

0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:47.560
<v Speaker 5>with X rays. If you're comparing a series of cat scans,

0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:52.200
<v Speaker 5>tremendous amount of data and subtle abnormalities can be picked up.

0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:57.400
<v Speaker 5>Same for lab data we're using it for example with colonoscopy,

0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 5>where AI picks up subtle abnormality such as a polyp.

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.880
<v Speaker 5>Now it can't really tell if that is a polyp

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 5>or necessarily maybe a clump of mucus. The doctor still

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 5>has to irrigate it away and say, oh, yes, you're right,

0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:16.040
<v Speaker 5>and is pursuing it. So AI can be very helpful

0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.839
<v Speaker 5>to say, hey, have you thought about this? Is this relevant?

0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.640
<v Speaker 5>Do we need to explore it further? And whether it's

0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:27.240
<v Speaker 5>developing new drugs, whether it's processing a lot of lab

0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.240
<v Speaker 5>data to say, hey, it looks like this blood count

0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.400
<v Speaker 5>has slowly been trickling down. Do we have to worry

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:37.400
<v Speaker 5>about bleeding somewhere? Could there be a cancer? So it's

0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:41.520
<v Speaker 5>not really integrated yet into the medical record system. It's

0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:45.000
<v Speaker 5>not in the office helping us. Yet it's really more

0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 5>scheduling appointments. It's more helping with cat scans or diagnostic tests,

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:53.960
<v Speaker 5>even robotic surgery. But eventually, I think it will come

0:13:53.960 --> 0:14:00.000
<v Speaker 5>into the office to really help extract important questions from patients,

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:03.360
<v Speaker 5>tact important data, and help us make a diagnosis and

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:04.240
<v Speaker 5>a treatment plan.

0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:06.520
<v Speaker 2>Ian how long does it take for it to come

0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 2>in you think in a really significant way.

0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:15.040
<v Speaker 5>You know, a lot of that is based on doing trials,

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:17.360
<v Speaker 5>A lot of it is based on the developer of

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:22.360
<v Speaker 5>the electronic medical record. We spend probably fifty percent of

0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:27.760
<v Speaker 5>our time documenting, so if we can expand our patient

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:33.080
<v Speaker 5>contact time and thinking time and reducing our documentation time,

0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:38.040
<v Speaker 5>that will definitely improve our ability to get information. I

0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.280
<v Speaker 5>think within the next few years it's going to be

0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:43.600
<v Speaker 5>in the office, but it's not certainly next month.

0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.960
<v Speaker 3>Do you see this from the incumbent players in medicine

0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:49.880
<v Speaker 3>right now? And I think of one, I mean Epic

0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:53.640
<v Speaker 3>Medical Systems is like, if you go anywhere EPIC owns,

0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.840
<v Speaker 3>the room is are they going to do it?

0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:57.240
<v Speaker 6>Epic?

0:14:57.240 --> 0:14:59.560
<v Speaker 3>It is the behemor it's the behemor well.

0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:03.000
<v Speaker 5>They're talking about it, yep, it's the behemoth. All the

0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.000
<v Speaker 5>major medical centers. They've been able in a few short

0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:09.520
<v Speaker 5>years to really dominate it, and basically everyone has to

0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 5>join now because all the big players are on it

0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 5>and it is actually a pretty good medical record system.

0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.760
<v Speaker 5>They are working on it and we're working with them

0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:24.120
<v Speaker 5>to develop different algorithms. But it is not yet interviewing

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:28.160
<v Speaker 5>the patient. It is not yet documenting helping us document.

0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 5>We still have to dictate the charter or type the note,

0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 5>and it is not at the end of the day

0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:36.680
<v Speaker 5>helping us process the information and say, hey, you missed

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.440
<v Speaker 5>this low blood count or high liver enzyme. Maybe we

0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:43.120
<v Speaker 5>should look into it. I think that's going to happen,

0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:46.240
<v Speaker 5>but I don't think it's going to happen in the

0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:46.800
<v Speaker 5>next year.

0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.960
<v Speaker 2>Do we need one system though, for this to really work.

0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:55.520
<v Speaker 5>Yes, we've talked about this before for many years, having

0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:58.760
<v Speaker 5>a national system where if someone goes to a hospital

0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:01.920
<v Speaker 5>across the street or us the country, we have all

0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:06.120
<v Speaker 5>the information integrated so we can do less tests and

0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.200
<v Speaker 5>have to be less redundant in what we do. But

0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 5>that is a problem with administration and hip and privacy violations.

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:17.760
<v Speaker 5>We really would need the government to say, look, we're

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 5>mandating that everyone have one system that puts everyone on

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:25.960
<v Speaker 5>one platform. So that's also a few years away. But

0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:28.160
<v Speaker 5>we should have done that years ago. It's really been

0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.840
<v Speaker 5>a waste of time having all these separate systems that

0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:32.320
<v Speaker 5>don't really talk to each other.

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.120
<v Speaker 3>So, doctor Lespater, how does this end up in the

0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:36.800
<v Speaker 3>operating room in the future.

0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:41.600
<v Speaker 5>Well, we're already doing it for robotic surgery, which is

0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:45.840
<v Speaker 5>a tremendous advance small incisions. The robots really help us

0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:50.480
<v Speaker 5>do very technically delicate procedures. There are better outcomes. It's

0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 5>helping with drug development, it's helping with analyzing studies, so

0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:56.280
<v Speaker 5>it can take all our information.

0:16:56.680 --> 0:17:00.680
<v Speaker 3>So Carol, go back to what you were saying. When

0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 3>it comes to medical imaging, right, you know, it's only

0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:05.600
<v Speaker 3>as perfect as the person reading the image.

0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:07.879
<v Speaker 2>Right, What if somebody has a bad day or is tired,

0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 2>or they just miss it. It's not judge. I'm not

0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:11.200
<v Speaker 2>being judgy.

0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:11.880
<v Speaker 3>It happens.

0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:12.520
<v Speaker 2>It's life.

0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:16.200
<v Speaker 3>It happens. Happens to people in my family, like and

0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:19.520
<v Speaker 3>you know what happens is there can be serious consequences

0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:21.280
<v Speaker 3>to that. What if you were able to use AI

0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:22.719
<v Speaker 3>and I know they're working on this. There was an

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:24.960
<v Speaker 3>article in times just a few months ago when it

0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.760
<v Speaker 3>comes to mammograms using AI technology to try to find

0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:30.080
<v Speaker 3>masses and mammograms.

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.159
<v Speaker 2>And just if it's a case of able to go

0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:32.919
<v Speaker 2>through stuff and then just say listen, we got some

0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:36.040
<v Speaker 2>questions about this, and then a radiologist or a doctor

0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:38.520
<v Speaker 2>comes in and says, okay, let me take another look

0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.840
<v Speaker 2>at this, and just it's another layer of really making

0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:46.000
<v Speaker 2>sure that you don't miss something that's truly truly important.

0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:49.560
<v Speaker 3>I mean it's in a hybrid way, right, working hand

0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:50.399
<v Speaker 3>in hand, right.

0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.360
<v Speaker 2>And in terms of medicine, right, it's never necessarily an

0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:55.800
<v Speaker 2>exact science. So if you are able to have some

0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:58.320
<v Speaker 2>kind of database that pulls in all the kind of

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.639
<v Speaker 2>different variations, if either an A or reading on a

0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:04.840
<v Speaker 2>scan that shows when there could be potential problems, I think,

0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:07.240
<v Speaker 2>think about how valuable and important that could be. Ian

0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:09.239
<v Speaker 2>ls Beta, We always look forward to it. Doctor Ian

0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:11.760
<v Speaker 2>las Beta over at NYU Lango Medical Center.

0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:16.840
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:20.879
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:24.359
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:27.560
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0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:30.760
<v Speaker 1>just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:35.000
<v Speaker 2>Thirty tim Some data last month a came out from

0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:38.479
<v Speaker 2>the research from Pitchbook. It showed VC venture capital funding

0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:41.520
<v Speaker 2>globally almost halved in the first six months of twenty

0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:45.399
<v Speaker 2>twenty three, so showing investors just not interested. Also some

0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:48.760
<v Speaker 2>less demand amid sharply higher interest rates. And this is though,

0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.720
<v Speaker 2>despite huge interest in AI startups sparked by the success

0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:55.200
<v Speaker 2>of open AI's Chatchipe. That's where money is going.

0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:58.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Investors report more than forty billion dollars into AI

0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:00.440
<v Speaker 3>startups in the past six months. That's according to the data,

0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.080
<v Speaker 3>including the ten billion dollar investment by Microsoft and open

0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:05.840
<v Speaker 3>Ai and one point three billion dollars in funding for

0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:07.399
<v Speaker 3>rival Inflection AI.

0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:10.520
<v Speaker 2>All right, so let's get to it. Because back with

0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.200
<v Speaker 2>us to talk about what's going on when it comes

0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.159
<v Speaker 2>to the VC world. And we're delighted to have her

0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:17.800
<v Speaker 2>back with us. Shila Patel. She's vice chairgeneral partner of

0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:21.320
<v Speaker 2>b Capital. She's former chairman of Goldman Saccesset Management. She's

0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:23.840
<v Speaker 2>with us on Zoom from Park City, Utah. Sheila, Nice

0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:25.760
<v Speaker 2>to be talking with you again. Last time I think

0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:31.000
<v Speaker 2>it was at the Milken Institute Global Conference in May.

0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:32.840
<v Speaker 2>How are you and talk to us about your world

0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:34.080
<v Speaker 2>and how things have changed.

0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:37.640
<v Speaker 7>I'm great, Thank you so much, and it's so great

0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:40.040
<v Speaker 7>to chat with you again. You know, I think the

0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.080
<v Speaker 7>world since Milkin has had some good news, had some

0:19:43.160 --> 0:19:46.399
<v Speaker 7>rougher news, but overall, I think it's been a fascinating

0:19:46.440 --> 0:19:51.399
<v Speaker 7>period to see how investor sentiment hasn't necessarily responded to

0:19:51.440 --> 0:19:53.480
<v Speaker 7>some of the good news we're seeing on the economy

0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:57.479
<v Speaker 7>and particularly among public companies on profits and so on.

0:19:57.560 --> 0:19:59.639
<v Speaker 7>So there's a lot out there to look to. But

0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.560
<v Speaker 7>as you pointed out in opening this, when it comes

0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:05.720
<v Speaker 7>to venture there are definitely some challenges and it'll be

0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:07.000
<v Speaker 7>fun to chat about them with you.

0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:09.000
<v Speaker 3>Well, let's talk about the challenges first, and then I

0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:11.520
<v Speaker 3>want to talk about the opportunities. So it's been choppy

0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:15.040
<v Speaker 3>waters certainly given higher interest rates and pullback on funding,

0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:19.280
<v Speaker 3>and we've seen some venture backed companies wealth cease to exist,

0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:21.000
<v Speaker 3>cease to operate. It's a different world than it was

0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:23.520
<v Speaker 3>in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. What are the

0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:25.400
<v Speaker 3>challenges that you're seeing at the capital.

0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:30.840
<v Speaker 7>Well, I think you know, along with the entire VC community.

0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:34.840
<v Speaker 7>We certainly see challenges as you mentioned, in terms of

0:20:35.119 --> 0:20:39.639
<v Speaker 7>investor interest, and I think institutional investors data a survey

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:43.960
<v Speaker 7>of about forty four LPs show that almost three quarters

0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:46.800
<v Speaker 7>would allocate less to VC next year. Now, many of

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:50.000
<v Speaker 7>them have been strong allocators and supporters, and I think

0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:53.840
<v Speaker 7>they'll be back, but I think there's definitely concern over valuations,

0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:57.200
<v Speaker 7>and that's where sometimes challenging news can end up being

0:20:57.200 --> 0:20:59.760
<v Speaker 7>good news. We've been very fortunate in being able to

0:21:00.640 --> 0:21:03.880
<v Speaker 7>raise our latest fun Growth fund three and beat our

0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:07.520
<v Speaker 7>goals with that, and you have seen several VC firms,

0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:11.000
<v Speaker 7>particularly some of the largest, have some success raising money.

0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:14.160
<v Speaker 7>I think because of those other themes that you mentioned,

0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:17.600
<v Speaker 7>the interest in AI, the focus on areas where tech

0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:21.240
<v Speaker 7>really can be additive in up and down markets, and

0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:24.040
<v Speaker 7>that in many cases is enterprise and fintech, which are

0:21:24.080 --> 0:21:27.159
<v Speaker 7>areas in which the capital operates. So I think there

0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 7>are some high points, but in particular, investors are looking

0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:33.840
<v Speaker 7>to really make sure that the people they give money

0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:37.040
<v Speaker 7>too are focused on these questions of valuations, and that's

0:21:37.080 --> 0:21:39.879
<v Speaker 7>where the data has really been stark and is the

0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:43.919
<v Speaker 7>opportunity maybe the silver lining to the cloud, so to speak,

0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:46.199
<v Speaker 7>because valuations have come in and it means there are

0:21:46.240 --> 0:21:49.600
<v Speaker 7>great opportunities to find good tech companies at much more

0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:51.800
<v Speaker 7>reasonable and appropriate valuation.

0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:55.680
<v Speaker 2>Hey, CILA, is AI actually helping you guys find better

0:21:55.720 --> 0:21:58.359
<v Speaker 2>opportunities right now and able to go through maybe a

0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:00.840
<v Speaker 2>lot more deals and figure out what really makes sense.

0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:02.400
<v Speaker 8>Yeah.

0:22:02.440 --> 0:22:06.040
<v Speaker 7>I think applying AI to deal flow and to analysis

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:09.480
<v Speaker 7>goes hand in hand with looking at how our companies

0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:13.080
<v Speaker 7>are using AI. And certainly I would say it's been

0:22:13.080 --> 0:22:17.520
<v Speaker 7>an amazing partnership talking about AI with our strategic partner BCG.

0:22:18.240 --> 0:22:20.160
<v Speaker 7>When you look at the work that BCG has put

0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:24.280
<v Speaker 7>in at all levels of Corporate America and global corporates

0:22:24.520 --> 0:22:27.600
<v Speaker 7>and thought about how to apply AI to solving some

0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:30.359
<v Speaker 7>of the problems they're facing, it has really helped us

0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:33.000
<v Speaker 7>take it in house and think about ways to apply

0:22:33.040 --> 0:22:36.520
<v Speaker 7>it in our own investing, in our application of analyzing

0:22:36.560 --> 0:22:38.200
<v Speaker 7>potential portfolio companies.

0:22:38.480 --> 0:22:40.560
<v Speaker 2>But I guess what I'm also wondering too, has something

0:22:40.600 --> 0:22:43.800
<v Speaker 2>fundamentally It's interesting to hear what you say about, you know,

0:22:44.080 --> 0:22:46.639
<v Speaker 2>investor interest when it comes to VC. Is there something

0:22:46.720 --> 0:22:49.679
<v Speaker 2>fundamentally structurally going on? We talk a lot about I know,

0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:51.640
<v Speaker 2>I think we did it milk, you know, the private

0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:53.640
<v Speaker 2>credit markets and the amount of money that's out there.

0:22:53.680 --> 0:22:57.639
<v Speaker 2>I mean, is there something structurally fundamentally going on that's

0:22:57.880 --> 0:23:01.520
<v Speaker 2>changing the VC world like it was, like it's always been.

0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:06.320
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, Look, I actually I guess I'll I'll put my

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:09.919
<v Speaker 7>longer term hat on it. To me, is the maturation

0:23:10.240 --> 0:23:12.960
<v Speaker 7>of a segment of investing, just like we've seen other

0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:16.160
<v Speaker 7>areas go through. There was a moment when index investing

0:23:16.560 --> 0:23:19.879
<v Speaker 7>was young and new, and some crazy you know, evaluation,

0:23:20.080 --> 0:23:23.359
<v Speaker 7>some crazy structures, lots of things went on, and now

0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:26.719
<v Speaker 7>it's a typical part of people's investment in portfolios. I

0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:28.960
<v Speaker 7>think when I look at venture and I compare it

0:23:29.560 --> 0:23:32.280
<v Speaker 7>to the history my twenty years at Goldman, my thirty

0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:35.640
<v Speaker 7>years in the industry, and watching various areas come into

0:23:35.640 --> 0:23:40.480
<v Speaker 7>their own such as quant even hedge funds and private equity.

0:23:41.040 --> 0:23:43.400
<v Speaker 7>They go through a maturation process, and I think it's

0:23:43.400 --> 0:23:46.679
<v Speaker 7>a natural evolution to me, you know, I look at

0:23:46.720 --> 0:23:48.880
<v Speaker 7>venture and maybe it's because I'm one of the old

0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:52.000
<v Speaker 7>people in venture. That's how young an industry it is.

0:23:53.000 --> 0:23:57.480
<v Speaker 7>It's filled with amazing technology experts, but maybe you haven't

0:23:57.480 --> 0:23:59.960
<v Speaker 7>seen as many market cycles and at the end of

0:24:00.160 --> 0:24:03.800
<v Speaker 7>the day BC has to perform the same as other areas,

0:24:04.080 --> 0:24:07.040
<v Speaker 7>and that maturation is part of why you see some

0:24:07.080 --> 0:24:10.040
<v Speaker 7>funds able to cope with the changing environment, the same

0:24:10.080 --> 0:24:12.919
<v Speaker 7>as you see some portfolio companies coping better with a

0:24:12.920 --> 0:24:14.560
<v Speaker 7>more difficult funding environment.

0:24:14.920 --> 0:24:18.439
<v Speaker 3>Okay, you know, we only have a couple of minutes left,

0:24:18.480 --> 0:24:20.120
<v Speaker 3>and I wanted to get to the opportunities that you're

0:24:20.119 --> 0:24:22.280
<v Speaker 3>seeing right now. Sheila's so, so talk to me about

0:24:22.280 --> 0:24:25.880
<v Speaker 3>two opportunities in two senses of the word. One geographically,

0:24:25.880 --> 0:24:28.120
<v Speaker 3>where are you deploying money? And then also what types

0:24:28.119 --> 0:24:29.440
<v Speaker 3>of companies excite you right now?

0:24:30.680 --> 0:24:33.120
<v Speaker 7>Sure, well, maybe I'll start with the last first, because

0:24:33.160 --> 0:24:36.119
<v Speaker 7>I think it ties into that question of AI. I

0:24:36.160 --> 0:24:38.520
<v Speaker 7>think that we spend so much time and maybe this

0:24:38.680 --> 0:24:42.160
<v Speaker 7>is a trend in general on the downside of certain

0:24:42.200 --> 0:24:46.200
<v Speaker 7>technologies or of things in general, that the upsides sometimes

0:24:46.200 --> 0:24:48.960
<v Speaker 7>get missed. And when I look at AI, I look

0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 7>at the way a can turbo boost drug discovery and

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 7>research in areas that will be really important in a

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:57.720
<v Speaker 7>climate changing world, like crop protection. So a company like

0:24:57.760 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 7>atom Wise, which is one of our portfolio company, a

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:06.280
<v Speaker 7>small molecule expert partnering with the world's leading pharmaceuticals, biotechs,

0:25:06.600 --> 0:25:11.000
<v Speaker 7>agrochemical companies to discover new ways and new treatments, whether

0:25:11.080 --> 0:25:14.679
<v Speaker 7>drug treatments or whether crop protection, et cetera. So I

0:25:14.680 --> 0:25:17.800
<v Speaker 7>think that's an incredible area for focus for AI is

0:25:17.880 --> 0:25:22.240
<v Speaker 7>drug discovery, small molecule work that can go beyond medications

0:25:22.240 --> 0:25:27.639
<v Speaker 7>into other applications, industrial applications. That's amazing to me. And

0:25:27.680 --> 0:25:32.600
<v Speaker 7>then when I think about that broader question on opportunity,

0:25:33.440 --> 0:25:36.600
<v Speaker 7>I think that what we have to look to is

0:25:37.119 --> 0:25:39.920
<v Speaker 7>the longer term prospect for some of these companies when

0:25:39.960 --> 0:25:42.280
<v Speaker 7>you have a lower valuation to start with, and that

0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:44.800
<v Speaker 7>means from an investor perspective, you want to be sure

0:25:44.800 --> 0:25:48.560
<v Speaker 7>where the challenging valuations, you're challenging companies on the levels

0:25:48.600 --> 0:25:49.560
<v Speaker 7>they're looking to raise.

0:25:50.400 --> 0:25:54.840
<v Speaker 2>Super stuff. So appreciated. Shila Patel, Vice Chair, General Partner

0:25:54.880 --> 0:25:57.160
<v Speaker 2>be Capital, joining us on Zoom from Park City, Utah.

0:25:57.160 --> 0:25:59.679
<v Speaker 2>As we said from a chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset

0:25:59.720 --> 0:26:02.000
<v Speaker 2>Manage talking about the VC space.

0:26:02.280 --> 0:26:05.760
<v Speaker 1>If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, catch

0:26:05.840 --> 0:26:09.200
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen

0:26:09.240 --> 0:26:12.720
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

0:26:12.760 --> 0:26:17.080
<v Speaker 1>Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

0:26:17.000 --> 0:26:19.520
<v Speaker 3>Carol Ifuber get those textounts to just from unknown numbers.

0:26:19.560 --> 0:26:22.480
<v Speaker 3>Sometimes they say just hello, or maybe they have something

0:26:22.480 --> 0:26:25.479
<v Speaker 3>more like, Hi David, I'm Vicky Hoe. Don't you remember me?

0:26:25.560 --> 0:26:26.560
<v Speaker 2>I run in the other direction.

0:26:26.680 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 3>Okay, well that's probably a pretty smart thing to do.

0:26:28.480 --> 0:26:30.200
<v Speaker 3>I mean I get them all the time, but unlike Bloomberg,

0:26:30.280 --> 0:26:32.480
<v Speaker 3>Zeke Fox, and probably like most people who are just

0:26:32.480 --> 0:26:35.879
<v Speaker 3>a bit technologically savvy, I ignore them. We're grateful that

0:26:35.960 --> 0:26:37.879
<v Speaker 3>Zeke didn't, though, because even if it meant there was

0:26:37.920 --> 0:26:41.119
<v Speaker 3>a risk he'd be led to what's known as pig butchering.

0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:43.600
<v Speaker 3>If you're a little confused, don't worry. This is all

0:26:43.640 --> 0:26:46.240
<v Speaker 3>part of Zeke's brand new book. It's called Number Go Up.

0:26:46.400 --> 0:26:49.960
<v Speaker 3>Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall, in which he

0:26:50.040 --> 0:26:53.840
<v Speaker 3>uncovers a crypto powered human trafficking ring in Cambodia.

0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:56.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Zeke's new book coming out September twelfth. The excerpt

0:26:57.000 --> 0:26:59.440
<v Speaker 2>is the domestic cover story of the new issue of Bloomberg

0:26:59.400 --> 0:27:02.200
<v Speaker 2>Business Week on stands right as we speak online a

0:27:02.200 --> 0:27:04.880
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg dot com slash businessweeknd on the Bloomberg with more

0:27:05.240 --> 0:27:07.919
<v Speaker 2>Zeke is with us. He is financial investigations reporter at

0:27:07.920 --> 0:27:10.120
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News. He's on Zoom in New York City. Also

0:27:10.160 --> 0:27:12.720
<v Speaker 2>here the editor of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Jill Weber. Here in

0:27:12.760 --> 0:27:16.440
<v Speaker 2>our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Hi, Joel High, Vicky Hei Zee.

0:27:18.320 --> 0:27:21.479
<v Speaker 9>Only two of those three characters are real. So so

0:27:22.800 --> 0:27:26.960
<v Speaker 9>this is an amazing excerpt. I'm so excited for Zeke

0:27:27.040 --> 0:27:27.600
<v Speaker 9>in this book.

0:27:27.720 --> 0:27:28.480
<v Speaker 3>Number go up.

0:27:29.359 --> 0:27:31.800
<v Speaker 9>You can pre order your copy right now on Amazon

0:27:31.840 --> 0:27:35.399
<v Speaker 9>dot com. Right Zeke, And uh, this is a little

0:27:35.440 --> 0:27:39.400
<v Speaker 9>sneak peak of where some of the book goes. And

0:27:40.119 --> 0:27:42.520
<v Speaker 9>we're just so tickled to have it as an excerpt

0:27:42.520 --> 0:27:45.640
<v Speaker 9>in this current issue and as our cover story. And

0:27:45.800 --> 0:27:48.639
<v Speaker 9>you know we're talking about Zeke here and uh, you

0:27:48.640 --> 0:27:52.119
<v Speaker 9>know it all begins with this text that he got,

0:27:52.520 --> 0:27:56.680
<v Speaker 9>uh from a person named quote unquote Vicky. Who was

0:27:57.000 --> 0:27:58.680
<v Speaker 9>Who is Vicky? And what text did you get?

0:27:58.760 --> 0:27:59.000
<v Speaker 3>Zeke?

0:28:00.840 --> 0:28:03.800
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, so Vicky gave me and sent me a text

0:28:03.960 --> 0:28:06.640
<v Speaker 6>out of nowhere saying like Hi, David, how's it going

0:28:06.760 --> 0:28:09.920
<v Speaker 6>or something like that, and like I'm not David obviously,

0:28:10.240 --> 0:28:12.760
<v Speaker 6>So I've been getting a lot of these. I'm been

0:28:12.840 --> 0:28:15.520
<v Speaker 6>kind of curious about that I decided to me.

0:28:15.640 --> 0:28:19.680
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, Tim says he gets like Carol, get them, Yeah,

0:28:19.720 --> 0:28:22.320
<v Speaker 9>I ignored delete reporter of spam if you can, right,

0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:24.600
<v Speaker 9>but you you wrote.

0:28:24.440 --> 0:28:28.120
<v Speaker 6>Back, yeah, And the first part of this, like, it's

0:28:28.160 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 6>probably about what you would assume. Where Vicky. She tries

0:28:31.880 --> 0:28:34.520
<v Speaker 6>to make friends with me. She's flirting a little bit,

0:28:34.600 --> 0:28:40.280
<v Speaker 6>she's sending me suggestive pictures and she's like a beautiful,

0:28:40.400 --> 0:28:44.480
<v Speaker 6>heavily airshed young woman who claims to be in New

0:28:44.520 --> 0:28:46.479
<v Speaker 6>York like me, but does not want to meet up,

0:28:46.520 --> 0:28:48.560
<v Speaker 6>and none of her pictures actually look like she's in

0:28:48.600 --> 0:28:54.440
<v Speaker 6>New York. And after I'm waiting for her to try

0:28:54.480 --> 0:28:56.440
<v Speaker 6>to scam me because I wanted to know how it works,

0:28:56.720 --> 0:28:59.520
<v Speaker 6>and it takes like days before she's very patient before

0:29:01.040 --> 0:29:03.240
<v Speaker 6>her true mission comes out, and she starts telling me

0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:06.480
<v Speaker 6>about how good she is at bitcoin trading and that

0:29:07.080 --> 0:29:09.440
<v Speaker 6>I gotta try to well. She doesn't even say like

0:29:09.480 --> 0:29:11.800
<v Speaker 6>you got a trade like me. She really plays it slow.

0:29:11.840 --> 0:29:14.240
<v Speaker 6>She's like, you know, I'm just just real busy today.

0:29:14.240 --> 0:29:16.200
<v Speaker 6>I can't talk. I got to make like thousands of

0:29:16.240 --> 0:29:20.760
<v Speaker 6>dollars on my bitcoin trades. And then finally, after like

0:29:20.800 --> 0:29:23.440
<v Speaker 6>a lot of trying, she's like Okay, I'll let you

0:29:23.480 --> 0:29:28.800
<v Speaker 6>in on it, download this app and send me some

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:32.000
<v Speaker 6>of this cryptocurrency called Tetor. And that's what I was

0:29:32.000 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 6>really waiting to hear.

0:29:33.360 --> 0:29:35.959
<v Speaker 9>What I love about it, though, is how how slow

0:29:36.080 --> 0:29:39.560
<v Speaker 9>she is. It's like, I mean, and this comes through

0:29:39.560 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 9>in the excerpt, is like you're like encouraging her along

0:29:42.400 --> 0:29:44.120
<v Speaker 9>to like, come on, get to the point where you're

0:29:44.160 --> 0:29:45.080
<v Speaker 9>trying me.

0:29:46.440 --> 0:29:48.640
<v Speaker 6>I even I had to tell her that, like I

0:29:48.680 --> 0:29:51.280
<v Speaker 6>really wanted a tesla, like I need to make money,

0:29:51.760 --> 0:29:54.400
<v Speaker 6>like she just she was really wanted to make sure

0:29:54.440 --> 0:29:58.640
<v Speaker 6>I was hooked before she went for the scam. And

0:29:59.600 --> 0:30:03.440
<v Speaker 6>once so I sent her Tether is like it's a

0:30:03.440 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 6>stable coin. It always costs a dollar because it's supposedly

0:30:07.480 --> 0:30:09.160
<v Speaker 6>backed by real dollars in the bank. And you can

0:30:09.200 --> 0:30:12.280
<v Speaker 6>go on any of your normal crypto apps like coinbase

0:30:12.400 --> 0:30:15.040
<v Speaker 6>or crypto dot com or whatever, you can buy tether

0:30:15.640 --> 0:30:19.480
<v Speaker 6>and then you send them to Vicky at her supposedly

0:30:19.560 --> 0:30:24.640
<v Speaker 6>like magiccoin trading app. And so all that involves is

0:30:24.720 --> 0:30:27.000
<v Speaker 6>getting Vicky said. Vicky gave me her address. I mean,

0:30:27.040 --> 0:30:29.240
<v Speaker 6>she walked me through it very carefully, and I sent

0:30:29.320 --> 0:30:32.880
<v Speaker 6>her a hundred tethers from like a normal trading app

0:30:33.320 --> 0:30:36.640
<v Speaker 6>to her special app where I was going to get

0:30:36.680 --> 0:30:41.360
<v Speaker 6>make this like big score. But as soon as I

0:30:41.400 --> 0:30:43.520
<v Speaker 6>sent it, she started telling me like I needed to

0:30:43.560 --> 0:30:45.960
<v Speaker 6>send more, at which point I felt like it had

0:30:46.000 --> 0:30:48.400
<v Speaker 6>gone far enough. I told her I was a reporter,

0:30:49.000 --> 0:30:54.920
<v Speaker 6>and she disappeared. But the part where the story gets

0:30:55.440 --> 0:30:58.760
<v Speaker 6>really dark and really weird is when I tried to

0:30:58.800 --> 0:31:01.640
<v Speaker 6>figure out who is on the other end of these messages,

0:31:01.720 --> 0:31:02.760
<v Speaker 6>like who could Vicky b.

0:31:04.600 --> 0:31:04.719
<v Speaker 3>So?

0:31:04.920 --> 0:31:06.000
<v Speaker 6>And it turns out.

0:31:05.920 --> 0:31:08.000
<v Speaker 9>That that I want to I want to slow you

0:31:08.040 --> 0:31:09.080
<v Speaker 9>down before I let.

0:31:08.960 --> 0:31:13.160
<v Speaker 2>You go there, Uh the great revel Yeah, Which that's it, right.

0:31:13.200 --> 0:31:16.640
<v Speaker 9>You know part part of what the book is so

0:31:16.720 --> 0:31:19.000
<v Speaker 9>much bigger than just this, right. Keep in mind this

0:31:19.080 --> 0:31:22.360
<v Speaker 9>is an excerpt, and Zeke, I do want to just

0:31:22.440 --> 0:31:25.440
<v Speaker 9>like back up for a second and talk about, uh,

0:31:25.680 --> 0:31:28.560
<v Speaker 9>how you ended up having this book at all?

0:31:28.800 --> 0:31:31.040
<v Speaker 6>Well, I was I was hoping that I was hoping

0:31:31.040 --> 0:31:35.760
<v Speaker 6>that you would because good this really started. This started like, uh,

0:31:36.400 --> 0:31:39.280
<v Speaker 6>you know, it's almost two years ago, maybe even a

0:31:39.280 --> 0:31:41.440
<v Speaker 6>little more than two years ago. Joel came by my

0:31:41.560 --> 0:31:44.800
<v Speaker 6>desk and I had not been reporting on crypto at all.

0:31:45.800 --> 0:31:48.520
<v Speaker 6>I tend to write about like weird stuff going on

0:31:48.520 --> 0:31:51.960
<v Speaker 6>on Wall Street. But I've sort of resisted crypto as

0:31:51.960 --> 0:31:54.800
<v Speaker 6>a topic. I like most of you listening to this,

0:31:54.880 --> 0:31:57.400
<v Speaker 6>you probably feel like I'm never going to get it,

0:31:57.480 --> 0:32:00.600
<v Speaker 6>and like the constant like boosterisms of a turn off.

0:32:02.440 --> 0:32:06.080
<v Speaker 6>But Joel said, hey, what do you know about stable

0:32:06.120 --> 0:32:11.160
<v Speaker 6>coins like Tether? And I thought, huh, I mean, maybe

0:32:11.200 --> 0:32:13.160
<v Speaker 6>like this wants I mean, if Joel wants the story,

0:32:13.200 --> 0:32:15.920
<v Speaker 6>it might be kind of fun to look into it.

0:32:17.640 --> 0:32:21.959
<v Speaker 6>And but I mean, I don't think I'm sure that

0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:25.080
<v Speaker 6>neither of us had any idea where looking into Tether

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:27.280
<v Speaker 6>was was going to take us now.

0:32:28.280 --> 0:32:31.120
<v Speaker 9>Certainly not me. And we've had you know, great reporting

0:32:31.120 --> 0:32:34.080
<v Speaker 9>from Zeke on on Tether and more crypto along the way.

0:32:35.160 --> 0:32:37.360
<v Speaker 9>So yeah, just a little pop up my own car

0:32:37.440 --> 0:32:40.040
<v Speaker 9>there for helping Zeke get inspired to write and get

0:32:40.040 --> 0:32:44.800
<v Speaker 9>interested in Tether, because the Tether part is ultimately where

0:32:44.840 --> 0:32:48.840
<v Speaker 9>this this other side of your your story about you know,

0:32:48.920 --> 0:32:52.560
<v Speaker 9>quote unquote Vicky takes you. And I will say, this

0:32:52.600 --> 0:32:55.400
<v Speaker 9>is where it gets dark. We've been kind of laughing,

0:32:55.440 --> 0:33:00.160
<v Speaker 9>ha ha, it gets dark really quickly here, Zeke. And

0:33:00.160 --> 0:33:03.080
<v Speaker 9>why don't you take us to this human rights catastrophe

0:33:03.120 --> 0:33:05.560
<v Speaker 9>that you discovered yeah, on the other side of the world.

0:33:06.960 --> 0:33:12.280
<v Speaker 6>I mean, the truth, as I learned through activists and

0:33:12.560 --> 0:33:15.840
<v Speaker 6>reporters on the ground in Southeast Asia, is that the

0:33:15.880 --> 0:33:20.520
<v Speaker 6>people who send these text messages are themselves often victims

0:33:20.880 --> 0:33:27.400
<v Speaker 6>of human trafficking. And there's whole office buildings of people

0:33:27.400 --> 0:33:30.920
<v Speaker 6>who've been learned to say, like Cambodia is a popular

0:33:30.960 --> 0:33:33.520
<v Speaker 6>spot for this, and they've been learned there with the

0:33:33.560 --> 0:33:37.440
<v Speaker 6>promise of a good job. Once they arrive, they're trapped

0:33:37.800 --> 0:33:41.320
<v Speaker 6>and they're forced to scam people under with the threat

0:33:41.320 --> 0:33:45.400
<v Speaker 6>of beatings or torture or even worse. And it sounds

0:33:45.440 --> 0:33:48.720
<v Speaker 6>like some sort of like QAnon conspiracy thing, but like

0:33:48.800 --> 0:33:52.560
<v Speaker 6>it's real. These messages are often coming from people who

0:33:52.600 --> 0:33:56.720
<v Speaker 6>are suffering like horrible abuses and can't leave unless they

0:33:56.760 --> 0:34:00.320
<v Speaker 6>pay essentially like a large ransom to the gangs that

0:34:00.400 --> 0:34:01.760
<v Speaker 6>run these scam compounds.

0:34:02.040 --> 0:34:05.120
<v Speaker 3>Can you Zeke talk about who you met in Ho

0:34:05.240 --> 0:34:08.640
<v Speaker 3>Chi Minh City and how he was able to escape

0:34:09.200 --> 0:34:13.120
<v Speaker 3>from this one of these uh, one of these sort

0:34:13.160 --> 0:34:15.719
<v Speaker 3>of prison like structures.

0:34:18.360 --> 0:34:22.040
<v Speaker 6>So over a video chat with the translator, I started

0:34:22.040 --> 0:34:27.000
<v Speaker 6>interviewing people who had escaped from these compounds. One of

0:34:27.040 --> 0:34:32.319
<v Speaker 6>them his name is twee. He's twenty nine years old.

0:34:32.400 --> 0:34:35.840
<v Speaker 6>The first time we speak on Zoom's it's like a

0:34:35.920 --> 0:34:39.600
<v Speaker 6>rainy night in ho Chi Minh city. He's walking down

0:34:39.600 --> 0:34:42.480
<v Speaker 6>the street smoking a cigarette. I can see that he's

0:34:42.480 --> 0:34:45.000
<v Speaker 6>missing quite a few teeth, and he tells me that

0:34:45.000 --> 0:34:49.520
<v Speaker 6>these were he lost them in like a horrible beating

0:34:49.600 --> 0:34:53.520
<v Speaker 6>by his captors. And it was truly a desperate situation.

0:34:53.640 --> 0:35:00.040
<v Speaker 6>He'd been tricked into, tricked into going to Cambodia, and

0:35:01.320 --> 0:35:08.320
<v Speaker 6>he was only able to escape by stealing a guard's

0:35:08.360 --> 0:35:13.880
<v Speaker 6>phone then hiding it in his rectum, which was a

0:35:13.920 --> 0:35:18.000
<v Speaker 6>trick that he'd learned in prison. Then and like he's

0:35:18.040 --> 0:35:20.240
<v Speaker 6>telling me this stuff and it's it's pretty hard to believe.

0:35:22.719 --> 0:35:26.000
<v Speaker 6>He told me that he was able to take the

0:35:26.040 --> 0:35:28.919
<v Speaker 6>phone apart with no tools, and then since he didn't

0:35:28.920 --> 0:35:32.719
<v Speaker 6>have a charger, he hot wired the battery to a

0:35:33.040 --> 0:35:35.919
<v Speaker 6>fluorescent light fixture in the ceiling of the room where

0:35:35.920 --> 0:35:39.600
<v Speaker 6>he's being held. So he had been a great source

0:35:39.640 --> 0:35:44.800
<v Speaker 6>of information about these schemes and about these scam compounds

0:35:44.800 --> 0:35:47.239
<v Speaker 6>and Cambodia. But I wasn't quite sure about this part

0:35:47.280 --> 0:35:50.640
<v Speaker 6>of the story. So I went to Hochi min the

0:35:50.640 --> 0:35:53.799
<v Speaker 6>city I met hup with him. I told him like

0:35:53.840 --> 0:35:56.359
<v Speaker 6>tweet like, I'm so sorry for what's happened to you.

0:35:57.120 --> 0:35:59.120
<v Speaker 6>I hate to say this though, but like, is that

0:35:59.200 --> 0:36:03.160
<v Speaker 6>even really possible to charge an iPhone like that? And

0:36:03.320 --> 0:36:07.560
<v Speaker 6>with no hesitation? Well he said yeah, he said, I'll

0:36:07.600 --> 0:36:11.480
<v Speaker 6>show you right now, went to the store, bought like

0:36:11.560 --> 0:36:14.759
<v Speaker 6>a old iPhone for about fifty bucks, and with no

0:36:14.800 --> 0:36:17.840
<v Speaker 6>hesitation he took it apart. Took apart a lamp at

0:36:18.280 --> 0:36:21.440
<v Speaker 6>an LED light bulb in my room hotel room, wired

0:36:21.440 --> 0:36:24.480
<v Speaker 6>it to the battery and got should turn on.

0:36:25.120 --> 0:36:28.239
<v Speaker 3>So it was so you can do that?

0:36:28.280 --> 0:36:29.280
<v Speaker 6>Incredibly impressed.

0:36:29.760 --> 0:36:35.719
<v Speaker 9>Yes, so, and so bring it back to to so

0:36:35.880 --> 0:36:38.640
<v Speaker 9>we if we if you have firsthand experience from these

0:36:38.680 --> 0:36:42.840
<v Speaker 9>people and what they've endured and what they've endured to

0:36:42.920 --> 0:36:45.720
<v Speaker 9>get their freedom back, what did you learn from talking

0:36:45.760 --> 0:36:49.320
<v Speaker 9>to them about what was on the other side of

0:36:49.520 --> 0:36:55.120
<v Speaker 9>these let's call it like a modified a hotel, shall

0:36:55.160 --> 0:36:56.160
<v Speaker 9>we say?

0:36:56.840 --> 0:37:01.239
<v Speaker 6>Well, we had been held in se Anookville, which is

0:37:01.280 --> 0:37:07.960
<v Speaker 6>a city in southwestern Cambodia that had an incredible casino

0:37:08.000 --> 0:37:11.600
<v Speaker 6>building boom fueled by Chinese investors in recent years. Then

0:37:11.920 --> 0:37:16.959
<v Speaker 6>like a horrible bust win the during COVID and also

0:37:17.040 --> 0:37:20.640
<v Speaker 6>due to a change in the law about online gambling

0:37:20.680 --> 0:37:23.600
<v Speaker 6>in Cambodia, so there was now all this empty space,

0:37:23.760 --> 0:37:28.799
<v Speaker 6>all these people who specialized in gam online gambling, and

0:37:29.040 --> 0:37:32.640
<v Speaker 6>he'd been held in this one area called Chinatown, which

0:37:32.680 --> 0:37:36.360
<v Speaker 6>is like the most like evil office park on Earth,

0:37:36.440 --> 0:37:42.560
<v Speaker 6>like twenty maybe like fifty towers, where there were credible

0:37:42.600 --> 0:37:45.560
<v Speaker 6>reports and also at local media and other press that

0:37:45.600 --> 0:37:49.000
<v Speaker 6>were saying that these were sites of where there were

0:37:49.640 --> 0:37:52.879
<v Speaker 6>thousands and thousands of people who were forced to scam.

0:37:53.320 --> 0:37:55.080
<v Speaker 6>But I felt like this was one of those stories

0:37:55.120 --> 0:38:00.640
<v Speaker 6>that you had to see to believe. And also the

0:38:00.680 --> 0:38:04.200
<v Speaker 6>people who covered it, understandably were not that interested in

0:38:04.239 --> 0:38:08.960
<v Speaker 6>the in the crypto angle, but I felt like crypto

0:38:09.480 --> 0:38:11.960
<v Speaker 6>was I wanted to know how crypto was really fueling

0:38:12.040 --> 0:38:15.360
<v Speaker 6>these these scams, because at the heart of it, like

0:38:15.440 --> 0:38:18.680
<v Speaker 6>people in the US or other well off countries need

0:38:18.760 --> 0:38:23.960
<v Speaker 6>to send money to like Chinese gangsters in Cambodia, And

0:38:24.000 --> 0:38:26.080
<v Speaker 6>if you tried to do that with like your visa card,

0:38:26.719 --> 0:38:28.600
<v Speaker 6>like that's not going to work for very long, Like

0:38:28.640 --> 0:38:30.480
<v Speaker 6>there's going to be charge. Visa would cut you off

0:38:30.480 --> 0:38:33.480
<v Speaker 6>in a minute, and uh Bank of America is going

0:38:33.560 --> 0:38:36.759
<v Speaker 6>to like flag that transfer, but if you do it

0:38:36.840 --> 0:38:43.200
<v Speaker 6>using crypto, it's instant, it's irreversible. And it's also it's

0:38:43.280 --> 0:38:45.320
<v Speaker 6>kind of plausible that there could be this like great

0:38:45.920 --> 0:38:49.160
<v Speaker 6>bitcoin trading strategy, I mean plausible for if you're like

0:38:49.200 --> 0:38:55.440
<v Speaker 6>not that well informed. So and what I saw when

0:38:55.480 --> 0:38:59.440
<v Speaker 6>I went to Cambodia was that at I went to

0:38:59.520 --> 0:39:02.439
<v Speaker 6>Chinatown and it was just as twe and the other

0:39:02.600 --> 0:39:06.480
<v Speaker 6>escapees had described and right although by the time that

0:39:06.600 --> 0:39:09.319
<v Speaker 6>I went to visit, it had largely been shut down

0:39:09.719 --> 0:39:14.759
<v Speaker 6>by become like an international embarrassment and Camponian authorities had

0:39:15.360 --> 0:39:20.279
<v Speaker 6>closed down most of the scam compounds there. But right

0:39:20.320 --> 0:39:25.240
<v Speaker 6>at the entrance, there was a store that had closed.

0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:27.720
<v Speaker 6>There's a money changing store, and it had a sign

0:39:28.160 --> 0:39:31.920
<v Speaker 6>on its billboard advertising that you could change your tether

0:39:32.080 --> 0:39:36.000
<v Speaker 6>for US dollars there, which is not something I'd seen

0:39:36.040 --> 0:39:43.400
<v Speaker 6>like anywhere else in the real world. So that was

0:39:43.440 --> 0:39:44.319
<v Speaker 6>a big shock to me.

0:39:44.760 --> 0:39:47.120
<v Speaker 2>So we have about a minute left here, Zeke, and

0:39:47.160 --> 0:39:49.160
<v Speaker 2>there's we know so much more in your book, but

0:39:49.280 --> 0:39:53.239
<v Speaker 2>this particular excerpt, I mean, how does it make you

0:39:53.280 --> 0:39:56.240
<v Speaker 2>think kind of about you know, this the crypto world

0:39:56.239 --> 0:39:58.479
<v Speaker 2>where we are a lot of questions out there.

0:40:00.960 --> 0:40:04.000
<v Speaker 6>I mean, to me, this is like the one I

0:40:04.040 --> 0:40:08.480
<v Speaker 6>looked all over the world from like El Salvador, Philippines, Bahamas,

0:40:08.520 --> 0:40:11.839
<v Speaker 6>everywhere I went. Crypto was not really living up to

0:40:11.880 --> 0:40:16.920
<v Speaker 6>the hype here. Sadly, it was extremely useful for these scammers,

0:40:17.239 --> 0:40:21.000
<v Speaker 6>and to me it explained, uh it could. These types

0:40:21.040 --> 0:40:24.840
<v Speaker 6>of illicit uses could explain a big part of Crypto's

0:40:24.840 --> 0:40:28.440
<v Speaker 6>continued popularity in the face of like so many reasons

0:40:28.480 --> 0:40:29.040
<v Speaker 6>to avoid it.

0:40:29.040 --> 0:40:33.719
<v Speaker 2>Now, all right, we're gonna leave it on that note. Unbelievable, Jill,

0:40:33.800 --> 0:40:34.040
<v Speaker 2>what are.

0:40:34.000 --> 0:40:36.680
<v Speaker 9>Your I'm just so proud of proud of the zequ

0:40:36.719 --> 0:40:40.520
<v Speaker 9>Fox for this, for this book, and grateful for this excerpt.

0:40:40.640 --> 0:40:44.920
<v Speaker 9>And just remember to pre order your copy of Number

0:40:44.960 --> 0:40:47.560
<v Speaker 9>Go up now so that you you get one of

0:40:47.560 --> 0:40:48.680
<v Speaker 9>the first ones off the press.

0:40:48.960 --> 0:40:50.440
<v Speaker 2>And all we're going to say is there's more of

0:40:50.520 --> 0:40:53.160
<v Speaker 2>Zeke Fox. We're going to cover this book certainly again

0:40:53.239 --> 0:40:55.959
<v Speaker 2>in September and cover more of it, So looking forward

0:40:55.960 --> 0:40:58.279
<v Speaker 2>to that. Ze Fox check out his book. As Jiell

0:40:58.440 --> 0:41:01.120
<v Speaker 2>just mentioned, he is financial invest gations reporter at Bloomberg,

0:41:01.160 --> 0:41:03.279
<v Speaker 2>and of course Jill Webber the editor of Bloomberg Business Week.

0:41:03.360 --> 0:41:05.680
<v Speaker 2>This is the domestic cover of Business Week.

0:41:07.480 --> 0:41:10.640
<v Speaker 1>M a journal.

0:41:11.640 --> 0:41:12.640
<v Speaker 4>Now about you let me drive?

0:41:12.920 --> 0:41:17.320
<v Speaker 8>Oh no, no, no, no, please, honey, please, I'll do the

0:41:17.440 --> 0:41:18.240
<v Speaker 8>riding gravel.

0:41:18.800 --> 0:41:20.160
<v Speaker 7>Let's wat I want to drive.

0:41:20.160 --> 0:41:23.360
<v Speaker 2>It's a good question.

0:41:27.160 --> 0:41:30.359
<v Speaker 3>This is the drive to the globe down thing.

0:41:30.480 --> 0:41:33.560
<v Speaker 1>We'll buyer on Bloomberg Radio.

0:41:33.880 --> 0:41:36.560
<v Speaker 2>All right, TikTok, everybody, About eighteen minutes left in today's

0:41:36.560 --> 0:41:39.600
<v Speaker 2>trading session. It's been safe to say for at least

0:41:39.719 --> 0:41:42.320
<v Speaker 2>the second half of the day decidedly lower. As you

0:41:42.480 --> 0:41:45.600
<v Speaker 2>just heard from Bill and Charlie tracking the trade here.

0:41:45.760 --> 0:41:48.400
<v Speaker 2>Really the Nasdaq down the most on a percentage basis.

0:41:48.400 --> 0:41:50.560
<v Speaker 2>So stocks are down, bonds are down two as yield

0:41:50.600 --> 0:41:51.160
<v Speaker 2>have moved up to.

0:41:51.360 --> 0:41:54.240
<v Speaker 3>Nasdak is down seven percent just this month, Carol.

0:41:54.280 --> 0:41:56.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, August has been a bummer. Yeah, it is, except

0:41:56.640 --> 0:41:58.880
<v Speaker 2>if you're a mayor then you're like, hey, finally my

0:41:58.960 --> 0:41:59.440
<v Speaker 2>time has come.

0:41:59.560 --> 0:42:03.319
<v Speaker 3>Weather's pretty good. No, okay, that's true.

0:42:03.360 --> 0:42:05.160
<v Speaker 2>All right, So let's get to it. Let's talk about

0:42:05.160 --> 0:42:07.960
<v Speaker 2>the trade. Back with us is John Augustine. He is

0:42:08.040 --> 0:42:11.799
<v Speaker 2>CIO of Huntington Private Bank, joining us on zoom from Cincinnati, Ohio. John, Hey,

0:42:12.000 --> 0:42:14.560
<v Speaker 2>nice to have you back here with Tim and myself.

0:42:15.400 --> 0:42:17.680
<v Speaker 2>If we may first up because you are at Huntington

0:42:17.719 --> 0:42:21.080
<v Speaker 2>Private Bank. You are bank. Talk to us though about

0:42:21.320 --> 0:42:24.800
<v Speaker 2>the banking trends and what you guys are seeing stress points.

0:42:25.600 --> 0:42:27.320
<v Speaker 2>I don't know what you can tell us about loan demand.

0:42:27.360 --> 0:42:30.560
<v Speaker 2>What are you seeing just in general about the lending environment,

0:42:30.560 --> 0:42:32.960
<v Speaker 2>what it tells you about the overall macro environment.

0:42:34.120 --> 0:42:39.279
<v Speaker 8>Well, from my perspective, at least healthy bank the environment is.

0:42:39.960 --> 0:42:43.200
<v Speaker 8>You know, business spend on capex in the second quarter.

0:42:43.320 --> 0:42:45.719
<v Speaker 8>I don't have any numbers for the third quarter so far,

0:42:46.560 --> 0:42:49.680
<v Speaker 8>but one of the surprises in the overall economy been

0:42:49.719 --> 0:42:52.960
<v Speaker 8>around the Great Lakes. Businesses were spending on capex in

0:42:53.000 --> 0:42:56.200
<v Speaker 8>the second quarter, and arguably that's good news for the economy.

0:42:57.480 --> 0:42:58.600
<v Speaker 3>What do you think it's going to look like this

0:42:58.719 --> 0:42:59.400
<v Speaker 3>quarter though.

0:43:00.920 --> 0:43:03.200
<v Speaker 8>Probably slows down a little bit. I mean, they go

0:43:03.239 --> 0:43:06.280
<v Speaker 8>through cycles, just like you and I would buy endurable goods.

0:43:06.960 --> 0:43:10.960
<v Speaker 8>But it'll probably slow down. But so far, not a

0:43:11.000 --> 0:43:13.600
<v Speaker 8>lot based on the economic reports this week.

0:43:13.760 --> 0:43:16.279
<v Speaker 3>So the people who want to go out and borrow money,

0:43:16.280 --> 0:43:18.880
<v Speaker 3>the business owners who need to go out and borrow money,

0:43:18.920 --> 0:43:21.359
<v Speaker 3>even at these high interest rates, they're still doing it.

0:43:23.080 --> 0:43:26.160
<v Speaker 8>There's probably more cash. They're using more cash, just like

0:43:26.239 --> 0:43:29.520
<v Speaker 8>you and I. Consumers are using more cash, paying cash

0:43:29.520 --> 0:43:32.239
<v Speaker 8>for high dollar items. Businesses are doing the same thing.

0:43:32.880 --> 0:43:36.160
<v Speaker 8>We're still, you know, three and a half trillion dollars

0:43:36.760 --> 0:43:40.200
<v Speaker 8>in cash levels above where we were pre COVID.

0:43:40.640 --> 0:43:41.040
<v Speaker 3>Wow.

0:43:41.800 --> 0:43:44.320
<v Speaker 8>Well as a country, as a country.

0:43:44.000 --> 0:43:46.239
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, not just you and Mary.

0:43:47.040 --> 0:43:49.040
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, Carroll might be.

0:43:48.920 --> 0:43:49.680
<v Speaker 3>But not you and I.

0:43:50.840 --> 0:43:52.960
<v Speaker 2>Hey, so, John, you showed with our producer Paul Reddan

0:43:53.000 --> 0:43:55.120
<v Speaker 2>a top list of items on your mind. Of them,

0:43:55.160 --> 0:43:57.600
<v Speaker 2>what is the one thing that you think and talk

0:43:57.640 --> 0:43:59.680
<v Speaker 2>about the most and that you think we should all

0:43:59.719 --> 0:44:04.080
<v Speaker 2>be paying the most at attention to as investors?

0:44:04.120 --> 0:44:07.799
<v Speaker 8>The Fed? You know, we thought, we erroneously thought the

0:44:07.880 --> 0:44:11.239
<v Speaker 8>Fed would be done at their June twentieth meeting, and

0:44:11.280 --> 0:44:14.520
<v Speaker 8>they're not. They'll probably skip in September, but probably raising

0:44:15.000 --> 0:44:19.440
<v Speaker 8>in November. So it's the Fed that's still on our mind.

0:44:19.600 --> 0:44:22.040
<v Speaker 8>We thought they'd be off our mind by now, but

0:44:22.080 --> 0:44:22.920
<v Speaker 8>that's not the case.

0:44:23.440 --> 0:44:25.080
<v Speaker 3>Why do you think they'll raise again in November?

0:44:26.680 --> 0:44:30.480
<v Speaker 8>GDP, you know, inflation is probably going their way enough,

0:44:31.000 --> 0:44:33.520
<v Speaker 8>even though we get another report in August before excuse me,

0:44:33.520 --> 0:44:38.200
<v Speaker 8>in September, before they meet, but GDP is not going

0:44:38.239 --> 0:44:41.719
<v Speaker 8>their way. In other words, GDP maybe according to the

0:44:41.800 --> 0:44:45.440
<v Speaker 8>Atlanta Fed accelerating in the third quarter. That will come

0:44:45.440 --> 0:44:48.440
<v Speaker 8>out about a week before they meet in November. That's

0:44:48.440 --> 0:44:49.920
<v Speaker 8>probably why they raise in November.

0:44:50.120 --> 0:44:52.960
<v Speaker 3>You're talking about the Just so everyone is aware, you're

0:44:52.960 --> 0:44:55.319
<v Speaker 3>talking about the Atlanta Fed's GDP now index, right.

0:44:56.000 --> 0:44:59.120
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, Yeah, it rose now tracker with over five percent.

0:44:59.239 --> 0:45:01.839
<v Speaker 3>It rose yesterday a five point seven six percent, Carol,

0:45:01.880 --> 0:45:04.200
<v Speaker 3>from five point oh three percent in third quarter versus

0:45:04.400 --> 0:45:05.359
<v Speaker 3>it's previous release on.

0:45:05.280 --> 0:45:07.920
<v Speaker 8>All that's impressive. That is impressive.

0:45:09.040 --> 0:45:11.160
<v Speaker 2>It can move around, though, John, Right.

0:45:11.520 --> 0:45:15.280
<v Speaker 8>Oh, no, it's just this week. Think about this week though, Carol.

0:45:15.280 --> 0:45:19.760
<v Speaker 8>We were three for three. This week was activity economic reports,

0:45:20.080 --> 0:45:22.799
<v Speaker 8>and we were three for three that those came in

0:45:22.840 --> 0:45:23.800
<v Speaker 8>higher than expected.

0:45:24.360 --> 0:45:27.960
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you know, it's it's kind of the good conundrum,

0:45:28.000 --> 0:45:29.839
<v Speaker 2>if you will, if you're the Fed, right, you're kind

0:45:29.840 --> 0:45:33.279
<v Speaker 2>of glad that the economy hasn't fallen apart and people

0:45:33.360 --> 0:45:35.839
<v Speaker 2>are still working. But it also means that they're still

0:45:35.880 --> 0:45:38.960
<v Speaker 2>momentum for people to go out and buy or invest

0:45:39.160 --> 0:45:42.440
<v Speaker 2>and continue to kind of keep inflation either at these

0:45:42.520 --> 0:45:45.319
<v Speaker 2>levels or even potentially higher. That's the conundrum we live in.

0:45:46.719 --> 0:45:49.799
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I mean, and you see that in markets, right.

0:45:50.200 --> 0:45:53.080
<v Speaker 8>The story about in August so far has been about

0:45:53.160 --> 0:45:56.239
<v Speaker 8>yields moving back up, and the economy is part of that.

0:45:56.320 --> 0:45:58.320
<v Speaker 8>We would say, the economy is part of that. Stocks

0:45:58.320 --> 0:46:01.600
<v Speaker 8>aren't quite sure what to do with it yet. But

0:46:02.160 --> 0:46:05.520
<v Speaker 8>good news, we would say, we agree with you. Good news.

0:46:05.600 --> 0:46:09.960
<v Speaker 8>Employment is staying high and GDP growth is arguably staying high.

0:46:10.080 --> 0:46:14.120
<v Speaker 8>But the Fed keeps referencing it and they're going to

0:46:14.120 --> 0:46:16.440
<v Speaker 8>probably talk about it again at their September meeting.

0:46:16.960 --> 0:46:19.799
<v Speaker 2>So, John, you've got new money. Tim O's always asked us,

0:46:19.840 --> 0:46:21.279
<v Speaker 2>and I think it's a good question when we have

0:46:21.320 --> 0:46:23.120
<v Speaker 2>folks like you on But if you've got new money,

0:46:23.120 --> 0:46:24.880
<v Speaker 2>do you commit to the fixed income world where you

0:46:24.920 --> 0:46:28.640
<v Speaker 2>can get decent yields or the equity world where there

0:46:28.640 --> 0:46:31.920
<v Speaker 2>are questions about valuations, but if you think the outlook

0:46:31.960 --> 0:46:34.720
<v Speaker 2>is good and growth momentum continues, that kind of makes sense,

0:46:34.880 --> 0:46:37.080
<v Speaker 2>or would you prefer alternatives of some sort.

0:46:38.480 --> 0:46:42.680
<v Speaker 8>Well, what we talked about internally with our portfolio managers yesterday.

0:46:42.680 --> 0:46:46.240
<v Speaker 8>We have about seventy portfolio managers through the Great Lakes

0:46:46.280 --> 0:46:50.040
<v Speaker 8>region and then out west, and what we said was

0:46:50.200 --> 0:46:55.280
<v Speaker 8>probably buy bonds now and do three months to step

0:46:55.320 --> 0:47:00.200
<v Speaker 8>into stocks. We're in the scary season for stocks August, September, October,

0:47:00.280 --> 0:47:03.240
<v Speaker 8>So step into stocks, be a little bit more aggressive

0:47:03.239 --> 0:47:07.080
<v Speaker 8>buying bonds right now, and so far that's that's working.

0:47:07.719 --> 0:47:09.440
<v Speaker 2>How far out though, in terms of bonds are you

0:47:09.480 --> 0:47:10.319
<v Speaker 2>comfortable to go?

0:47:11.520 --> 0:47:12.000
<v Speaker 7>Not far.

0:47:12.160 --> 0:47:15.399
<v Speaker 8>We have a short term bias, so we're generally think

0:47:15.440 --> 0:47:17.279
<v Speaker 8>of the three to five year space. Think of the

0:47:17.320 --> 0:47:18.400
<v Speaker 8>three to five year space.

0:47:19.800 --> 0:47:22.440
<v Speaker 3>So going back to the Fed, is there a chance

0:47:22.480 --> 0:47:24.239
<v Speaker 3>that the Fed isn't done after November?

0:47:26.320 --> 0:47:28.719
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I mean there's always a chance. We hope they're

0:47:28.719 --> 0:47:33.000
<v Speaker 8>done after November. Obviously the futures market thinks they're going

0:47:33.040 --> 0:47:38.160
<v Speaker 8>to be done. But if the economy, what they're worried about,

0:47:38.239 --> 0:47:43.160
<v Speaker 8>let me back up is the seventies where inflation decelerated

0:47:43.280 --> 0:47:46.160
<v Speaker 8>but then everything's sped back up and they had to

0:47:46.239 --> 0:47:49.840
<v Speaker 8>raise rates again. And that's what they're fixated on right now,

0:47:50.239 --> 0:47:52.920
<v Speaker 8>even though we're obviously in a much different economic situation.

0:47:53.160 --> 0:47:55.239
<v Speaker 3>But what that could mean is on the seventies. But

0:47:55.280 --> 0:47:57.400
<v Speaker 3>maybe we can interpret that as holding rates higher for

0:47:57.480 --> 0:47:59.799
<v Speaker 3>longer rather than cutting or rather than raising again.

0:48:00.000 --> 0:48:04.120
<v Speaker 8>We hope, Yeah, we don't know, raising again, but holding

0:48:04.200 --> 0:48:06.799
<v Speaker 8>higher for longer. They're finally getting to by the way

0:48:06.880 --> 0:48:08.240
<v Speaker 8>the futures market.

0:48:07.800 --> 0:48:11.279
<v Speaker 2>With that thought, Hey, John, just got about forty five

0:48:11.320 --> 0:48:15.240
<v Speaker 2>seconds left here. You guys recently edited Adobe, Amex, American Express,

0:48:15.320 --> 0:48:19.920
<v Speaker 2>Rockwell Automation, Parkerhannafen, T Mobile, Netflix, Tarbuck Salesforce. It's a

0:48:20.000 --> 0:48:23.640
<v Speaker 2>variety of companies. Is there any kind of commonality meaning?

0:48:23.719 --> 0:48:26.799
<v Speaker 2>Was it a fundamental play, valuation play, technical plane a

0:48:26.840 --> 0:48:29.120
<v Speaker 2>play or was it kind of a stock pickers market?

0:48:29.160 --> 0:48:31.080
<v Speaker 2>And again got about forty seconds.

0:48:31.560 --> 0:48:34.960
<v Speaker 8>Sure, stock pickers market. What our equity team generally does

0:48:35.880 --> 0:48:39.440
<v Speaker 8>is make their buy and sell decisions after earning season.

0:48:40.120 --> 0:48:42.759
<v Speaker 8>So there's something in that, either in the conference call

0:48:42.840 --> 0:48:46.160
<v Speaker 8>or in the earnings report that triggers them. So that

0:48:46.760 --> 0:48:49.239
<v Speaker 8>those were some names there that you talked about, but

0:48:49.320 --> 0:48:52.280
<v Speaker 8>they'll generally do their trims and ads after earning season.

0:48:52.360 --> 0:48:55.200
<v Speaker 8>We like that. Actually, that gives a little bit more

0:48:55.480 --> 0:48:59.279
<v Speaker 8>let's say, conviction to our thoughts there, even though they

0:48:59.280 --> 0:49:01.840
<v Speaker 8>may not work out the very short term. We like

0:49:01.920 --> 0:49:03.040
<v Speaker 8>what the actuity team does.

0:49:03.400 --> 0:49:06.279
<v Speaker 2>All right, great conversation, John, Thank you so much. You well,

0:49:06.440 --> 0:49:09.719
<v Speaker 2>John Augustine, He's CIO over at Huntington Private Bank. Joinning

0:49:09.760 --> 0:49:11.480
<v Speaker 2>us on zoom from Cincinnati, Ohio.

0:49:12.560 --> 0:49:17.200
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