1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney along 3 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,240 Speaker 2: with Tom Keen. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,760 Speaker 2: the best in economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. You can 5 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:24,439 Speaker 2: also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg 6 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 2: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings 7 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: from seven to ten Eastern Remark Global Headquarters in New 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 2: York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or 9 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. The most 11 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: read story on the Bloomberg Terminal, here's about this Bank 12 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,959 Speaker 2: of Japan and raising rates, scrapping the world's last negative 13 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: interest rate and the most aggressive monetar Steller's program in 14 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 2: modern history, but also indicating that financial conditions may stay 15 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 2: accommative for now. This is big. It's the most read. 16 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: I'm trying to get a sense of how important it is. 17 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 2: Maybe our next guests can help out here. Jennifer Lee, 18 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 2: Senior economists and Managing director at BMO Capital Markets. Jennifer, 19 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us. Can you put into 20 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: context what we what the Bank of Japan did today 21 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 2: and what it means because again most red story on 22 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal for sure. 23 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 1: Good morning everyone, thanks for having me on. You know, 24 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: I think this first of all, I have to think 25 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: all the local Japanese media for leaking out all the 26 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: all the mooths ahead of time. So I mean, you 27 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: can see from the reaction of the market, I wasn't 28 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 1: a huge change in terms of reaction, I guess. But 29 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: what this basically means is that, you know, as you 30 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: just pointed out, the last era of negative rates and 31 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: now we're turning to something more normal. You know, try 32 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: to explain to anyone out there, you know what the 33 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: heck does negative rates mean? You know, and you know 34 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: Japan's have had this for so many years now, so 35 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: now they're flowing back to normal, peaking above. You know, 36 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: we're back in positive territory. Although at zero to zero 37 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: point one percent range, it's still extremely extremely accommodative. But 38 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: again it shows that the make Japan is no longer 39 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: asleep at the wheel and is finally moving toward a 40 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: more normal condition. 41 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 3: And Jennifer, I'm looking at some of the market reaction 42 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 3: from analysts and strategists basically saying that the forward guidance 43 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 3: doesn't close the door on another hike. Is that something 44 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 3: that you agree with? What's your read on what could 45 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 3: be next? 46 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 1: So you know, I did see you know, some people penciling, 47 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: you know, a series of rate hikes. I think it's 48 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: you know, way way too soon. I mean, this bank 49 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: is very deliberate and very careful of what their moves are. Obviously, 50 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: you know, we've had inflation well above the two percent 51 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 1: target for you know, over two years now, and now 52 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: they're finally moving. But you know, I think it's way 53 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 1: too early to say that this is the beginning of 54 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: a series of rate hikes. You know, I wouldn't be 55 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: shocked if we see one more move. But you know, 56 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: as you just pointed out, like the statements still said 57 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: that they're going to be very accommodative for some time. 58 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: They're still buying jgb's, They're going to buy more if 59 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: you see some sort of a big abrupt move in 60 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: the JGB JGB market, which we're not seeing this morning, 61 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: So it all depends, but there's still there, there's still 62 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 1: keeping rates very very low. Again not negative, but at 63 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: least it's you know that's still very close to zero, 64 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: so still very accommodative. I think it's too soon to 65 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:10,239 Speaker 1: say that there will be a series of rate hikes, 66 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:11,679 Speaker 1: but I wouldn't be surprised, would be kind of nudged 67 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 1: it up a little bit further, depending on obviously how 68 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: things play out. Everything it's data dependent and not calendar dependent, 69 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: you know, to use all the famous words that various 70 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 1: central bankers use these days. 71 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 2: Yep, busy week here for central bankers to be sure, 72 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 2: not just as the Bank of Japan, but tomorrow with 73 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 2: the United States Federal Reserve, what do you think we're 74 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 2: going to hear from FED chairman j Palle. I mean, 75 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 2: obviously most people don't expect any movement in rage tomorrow, 76 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 2: but what kind of commentary do you think we'll hear? 77 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: He is going to stay uber cautious, I think, especially 78 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: after what we saw the last week with the sticky 79 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: inflation numbers both for CPI and PPI and the still 80 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: you know, in my opinion, a little bit questionable retail 81 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 1: sales data shows that you know, we're again it's we 82 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: have still to be very cautious with what we say. 83 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 1: You know that, Jane, I have just have to briefly 84 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: about retail sales. You know, I was kind of disappointed 85 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: to see you know that I'm going to say crappy, 86 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: you know, January retail sales results, you know, even lower 87 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: and even crappier, even though we did see the bounce 88 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: back in February. So it's it's sort of interesting to 89 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: see how that's going to play out. But definitely sticky 90 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: inflation is what they're going to be worried about, and 91 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: the FED chair is going to be extremely, extremely cautious. 92 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: And what he says, he doesn't want to, you know, 93 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: cause any undo you know, hoop law, I guess and 94 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: markets to say, you know, to cause everyone to speculate 95 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: that they're going to be cutting earlier or whatever. But 96 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: I think he's probably gone to pushback again on expectations 97 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: of when the feder will finally cut rates. We're sticking 98 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 1: to our July call. I think it'd be very interesting 99 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: to see what the dot plot does, you know, whether 100 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: or not they're going to stick with those three cuts. 101 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: I think that they have penciled in for this year. 102 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 3: Jennifer looking at the warp function wi RP on the terminal. 103 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 3: The first full cut fully priced in in July to 104 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 3: your point, with potentially three at least according to our 105 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 3: data through the end of the year early twenty twenty five. 106 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 3: What can j Powell s say from a hawkish perspective 107 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 3: that could make investors reshape expectations. 108 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: He can talk about being very worried, or he won't 109 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 1: feel very but he will say that, you know, we're 110 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: still concerned about how inflation is still sticky, services in inflation, 111 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 1: the supercore measurer and all that, you know. Again, just 112 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 1: sounding a little bit more concerned, I think would would 113 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 1: cause markets to push back the timing I think a 114 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 1: little bit more. But again, he's been saying this, you know, 115 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: for for some time now, and I think he's just 116 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: going to stick to that script. And he sort of 117 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 1: swaying away from from from his usual wording will, I 118 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: think will cause markets to pounce as well. So he 119 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 1: has to be so careful of what he says. You know, 120 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: how many times he says, oh, how many times blinks, 121 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: you know, and everyone will be focusing on every little 122 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: new ones that he does, anything that's different. 123 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 4: From what he has been, you know, doing in the past. 124 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: In the past few months. 125 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 2: Jennifer, what's your thoughts about the overall just looking at 126 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 2: the US economy here, looks like inflation is trending in 127 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 2: the right direction. There's still moderate economic growth that looks 128 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 2: like the employment pictures pretty steady. What's your overall view 129 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 2: of the US economy here? 130 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 1: Still and I'm going to use the word that you know, 131 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: your you're a couple of guests Ago was kept kept 132 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: saying as well, you know, it's still quite resilient. I 133 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: don't think anyone can or should be arguing that. I mean, 134 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: after you know, five hundred twenty five basis points of 135 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: great hikes, you know, the economy is still growing at 136 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: a at a at a solid pace, and that's extremely impressive. 137 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 1: And people are still hiring. You know, there may be 138 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: some evidence of boarding, you know, as we talked about 139 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:28,600 Speaker 1: in the past, but at the same time, you know, 140 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: we're not seeing mass layoffs either, which is very good news. 141 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: And it just speaks to again the resilience of the 142 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 1: US economy, the resilience of the labor market. The consumer 143 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 1: is still has you know, a little bit of cash 144 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: sashed away for a rainy day, and even though you 145 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 1: know the consumers are also you know, quite volatile. Terms 146 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: of the confidence lelveolst. They still have stuff in the 147 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 1: bank to spend if needed, and it's okay to take 148 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: a breather once in a while, you know, you don't 149 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: just spend everything that you earn. But again, it speaks 150 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 1: to overall broader resilience, and I think it's still about 151 00:06:58,040 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: the US economy overall for this year. 152 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 3: And Jennifer, we have BOJ, FED and BOE, but there's 153 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 3: this company called Nvidia having their GtC conference. 154 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 2: I talk to investors. 155 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 3: They're more focused on in video than anything related to 156 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 3: central banks. Is that concerning, Well, it's. 157 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: Definitely more interesting. I personally wish I owned it, but 158 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: I think, you know, but of course everything is going 159 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: to you know, we're all going to be hinging on. 160 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: Not only are the earnings and all that, but of 161 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: course you know what monetary policy is going to be, 162 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: how it's going to be playing out over the over 163 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: the next year, how much easier it's going to be, 164 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: or or less easy or less tight it's going to be. 165 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: I think it's all going to go back to what 166 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: the FED chair is going to say or not say, 167 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: and how they're going to act for the. 168 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 5: Rest of the year. 169 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 2: At this labor market, Jennifer. In the US, we saw 170 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 2: we did see unemployment tick up to I guess three 171 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: point nine percent, three point seven percent, But still it 172 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 2: feels like this is a fully employed economy here. What 173 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 2: do you how do you think about the labor market, 174 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 2: how do you think the Federal Reserve things about the 175 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 2: labor market? 176 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 1: You know this it's it's still you know tight. I mean, 177 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: you know, yes, we have seen the unemployment rate tick up. 178 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: We have seen job creations slow, but you know, one 179 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: hundred nine, two hundred thousand or whatever, it's still you know, 180 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: during normal times, this is still a very decent figure. 181 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: And again you're not seeing mass layoffs. And this is 182 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: like a situation that's playing out around the world, even 183 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: like in the Euro Area where we saw labor costs 184 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: take down. But meantime, you've got the jobless rate. It's 185 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: still at a record low of six point four percent 186 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 1: in the Euro Area. So this is, you know, again 187 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: a bigger picture thing. You know, when you've got you know, 188 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: demographics playing out, You've got all the people who are 189 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 1: you know, in the sixty five general sixty five age 190 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 1: bracket all getting ready to retire, you know, the silver wave. 191 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,959 Speaker 1: I think they're calling it, you know, and we're still 192 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 1: seeing shortages in certain areas, certain industries, and because labor 193 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 1: markets again globally are still quite tight, this is what's 194 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: going to I think it's good news for the economy. 195 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: I think it's good news for consumers, it's good news 196 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: for workers. But at the same time, it's bad news 197 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,839 Speaker 1: for businesses who are still trying you know, some of 198 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: them are still trying to find qualify because of that. 199 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: That titles of the labor market. That's what's going to 200 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: cause the FED. That's awesome contributed to some of the 201 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 1: Fed's concerns I think over inflation and the economy in general. 202 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 2: All right, Jennifer, thank you so much for joining us. 203 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 2: Always appreciate getting some of your time and your thoughts. 204 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,959 Speaker 2: Jennifer Lee. She's a senior e commumist and managing director 205 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:29,439 Speaker 2: over at a Demo Capital Markets. What kind of kind 206 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,559 Speaker 2: of body language do we get from the FED here 207 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,680 Speaker 2: about interest rates? Alex Chaloff, I'm sure he'll be paying attention. 208 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 2: He's the CIO of Bernstein Private Wealth Management. Alex, thanks 209 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 2: so much for joining us here. I don't know what 210 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,319 Speaker 2: are you going to be looking for tomorrow From FED 211 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 2: chairman J. Powell. 212 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 6: Think you said it body language. 213 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 7: It's highly likely that the dot plots change, that the 214 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 7: language changes, that we go from this beginning of the 215 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 7: year idea that we might have as many as fives, six, 216 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 7: seven cuts down to probably two to four, and wouldn't 217 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 7: be surprised to see some emphasis on two. So our 218 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 7: view is that there's no action taken, but that the 219 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 7: language changes and to be much more cautious and signaling 220 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 7: to the market that we've got some time to wait. 221 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,679 Speaker 3: And if we do see a push towards potentially two 222 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 3: on the dot, how do you think markets are going 223 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 3: to react to that. 224 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 7: I think it's been like a slow leak the last 225 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 7: couple of months. I mean part of what's happened this 226 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 7: year in equity markets. We've moved nicely, but there has 227 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 7: been some reluctance to move a lot higher because I 228 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 7: think this is the worst kept secret on the planet 229 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,079 Speaker 7: that they're not going to cut as aggressively as many 230 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,079 Speaker 7: thought they would. So I think the market will be disappointed, 231 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 7: but it won't be a disaster. 232 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: So what are you telling clients these days? Alex just 233 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 2: kind of stepping back from the Bernstein Private Wealth folks 234 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 2: here sixty forty portfolio is still something you guys talk about. 235 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 2: Where do alternatives fit into that? I mean, again, if 236 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 2: we're cutting rates, what's kind of the overall positioning here 237 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 2: for you guys. 238 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 7: We haven't been sixty forty people for probably six years 239 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 7: at this point, so we're throwing darts at sixty forty. 240 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 7: A big chunk of that has moved into alternative investments, 241 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 7: both on the income alternative side as well as the 242 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 7: growth alternative side, So investors looking at private equity, real estate, 243 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 7: private credit, alternative credit of all types. That's really been 244 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 7: the norm for our clients. And what we're talking about 245 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 7: is a more accommodative environment to really invest across the 246 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 7: board once we get past this peak and rates. We're 247 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 7: not there yet, so it's a little bit of the 248 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 7: waiting game, but we're getting close. 249 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 3: And when you look at the expectations for the full 250 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 3: year you mentioned that two to four range, What data 251 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 3: what data points could draw that to go closer to two? 252 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 3: If not one? If apparently Vince Cignarella is calling for. 253 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 7: Nine, right, I think there's two that we focus on 254 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 7: most One is CPI, that's obvious, but we've had some 255 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 7: volatility in the month to month CPI readings, while the 256 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 7: longer term trend is still intact that we're dropping, that 257 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 7: inflation is coming down, you could get those fights in 258 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 7: monthly CPI. So that would be one, and then two 259 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 7: is labor. You know, the jobs market has been so 260 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 7: impressive throughout this cycle that if we got a real 261 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 7: disruption there, that would be nerve racking. 262 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 6: Because there's some of. 263 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 7: Us believe that just as the FED has tightened and 264 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 7: we're starting to see it play out in the labor market, 265 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 7: some companies are getting out in front of this to 266 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 7: really start to change their hiring intentions and even reduce headcount. 267 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:45,079 Speaker 7: And so, even though the FED is working so hard 268 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 7: to avoid causing a recession, if we stay at these 269 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 7: rates for much longer, we may end there. 270 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 2: So Alex, my colleague here, Bailey, he's a young Turk. 271 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 2: He can go out and take all kinds of equity risk. 272 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 2: I'm thinking about the two year treasury four point what's 273 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 2: wrong with that trade? 274 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 7: There's nothing wrong with a two year treasury as long 275 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 7: as you don't have anything to do in two years. 276 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 7: Our view is that it's better to build a buttonnew 277 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 7: I don't know maybe you don't have been anything to 278 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 7: do in two years. 279 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 6: But our view is it's. 280 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 7: Better to build a portfolio that has a variable maturity 281 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 7: structure to it. 282 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 6: We favor municipals. 283 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 7: For taxable investors over treasuries, a little bit of a 284 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 7: tactical allocation to some shorter treasuries just because short unis 285 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 7: are so rich. But I would be in a muni 286 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 7: portfolio much faster than I would start to build a 287 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:38,479 Speaker 7: treasury portfolio. 288 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 2: Today you're preaching to the choir ax and say I'm bored. 289 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 3: With munis, but apparently that's where I should be putting 290 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 3: money to work. But talking about alex interesting riskier opportunities, 291 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 3: how are you thinking about XUS investing. 292 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 7: That's where we start to get excited, only because it 293 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 7: that's the next right, US US large cap, US megacap, 294 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 7: Max seven, et cetera. 295 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 6: That's now. 296 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:07,079 Speaker 7: What's next is really our challenge that Bernstein investors look 297 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 7: to us for advice on, and our view is next 298 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 7: could be Europe. Next could be some part of emerging markets. 299 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 7: I think when you look at Europe, you have to 300 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 7: acknowledge that EPs growth there will not keep up with 301 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 7: the US. So it's more of a valuation play and 302 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 7: em you have to be okay with taking some macro 303 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 7: risk of China. I think that the numbers out of 304 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 7: China have started to slowly improve. 305 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 6: But that's a long path out. 306 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 7: So number one, you've got to be a long term investor, 307 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 7: and number two, you've got to size it correctly, because 308 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 7: even though we think it will work, it's going to 309 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 7: have some volatility around it. 310 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 2: So Alex at Burnstein Private Wealth, to what extent of 311 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 2: do your clients come to you and say, I really 312 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 2: want exposure to alternatives, whether it's hedge funds or private 313 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 2: equity or private credit, And if so, what do you 314 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 2: think is a reasonable allocation to alternative investments. 315 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 7: Our investors have expres both a desire to invest in 316 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 7: alternative investments, but even in larger numbers, they want to 317 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 7: move away from public markets. I think the experience of 318 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 7: the last few years twenty twenty COVID was really scary 319 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 7: in public even though we ended up in a good place. 320 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 7: Twenty one was terrific, but it never felt terrific. Twenty 321 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 7: two is really hard. Twenty three was another year where 322 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 7: at the end of the year you couldn't believe how 323 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 7: much money you've made that year because it just didn't 324 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 7: feel that way. So they're looking to get away from 325 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 7: public market volatility, both equity and fixed income volatility by 326 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 7: the way, So I think some of it is absolute 327 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 7: attraction to alternatives, but a bigger chunk is this idea 328 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 7: of how do I get out of the publics, And 329 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 7: so we have been investing heavily in private equity, both 330 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 7: primaries and secondaries, really excited about fresh capital right. 331 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 6: Now getting put to work in real estate. 332 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 7: One of the things I would say across the board 333 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 7: in longer dated alternative investments is that you don't have 334 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 7: this big flood of other big institutional LPs applying capital. 335 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 7: There's been some reluctance because of the twenty twenty two 336 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 7: public market experience and how these big LPs are trying 337 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 7: to right size their liquid versus ill liquid. So they're 338 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 7: taking a year off, maybe two. They've definitely hit the 339 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 7: timeout button, and so we're able to step in. Other 340 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 7: groups like US are able to step in and acquire 341 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 7: assets at a much lower price because it isn't as 342 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:26,359 Speaker 7: heavily traffic. 343 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 3: Alex To quickly touch on that, I cover equity, capital 344 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 3: markets and IPOs. You're talking about the private markets and 345 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 3: some of the issues for LPs and gps. Where do 346 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 3: you see opportunities within the private market given the disconnect 347 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 3: that you're talking about. 348 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 6: I would first point to real estate. 349 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 7: I think there's a number of real estate funds, big 350 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 7: multi billion dollar funds that were raised ten twelve years 351 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 7: ago that still won't assets they need to sell, whether 352 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 7: they restructure in a continuation fund or they're looking to 353 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 7: do off market secondary like transactions. I think you're going 354 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 7: to see some significant deal flow there. You know, last 355 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 7: year twenty twenty three was the lowest deal volume in 356 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 7: commercial real estate and twenty five years yep. 357 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:11,680 Speaker 6: So we have to see the other side there. 358 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 7: And then I think in private equity and venture capital, 359 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 7: you're just not seeing the valuations that you had to 360 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 7: pay three or four years ago. In those private markets, 361 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 7: you're already seeing the lack of big capital investors. 362 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 6: They're bringing valuations down. 363 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 2: Alex great Stuff is always appreciate getting a few minutes 364 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 2: of your times, Alex Chaloff, He's the CEO of Bernstein 365 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 2: Private Well Management. So when I think about flailing around 366 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 2: in the dark, I think at Vince Signorella, macro strategists 367 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: for Bloomberg News The Master of working from home, Vince, 368 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 2: what are the traders telling me out there? You talk 369 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:48,919 Speaker 2: to these guys and gals all the time. What are 370 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:49,479 Speaker 2: they telling you? 371 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 5: Well, I think now that we're you know, realistically, we're 372 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 5: pushing the rate cuts back now out to July. So 373 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,160 Speaker 5: every month or so, we seem to be pushing them 374 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 5: further and further back. And you know, we're bumping up 375 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 5: against the presidential election at the same time. You can't 376 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 5: rule out that influence on power. Remember his interview with 377 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 5: sixty Minutes. The big mic drop moment for him was 378 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 5: to make sure that people understood that the independence of 379 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 5: the Federal Reserve was parent and he's not going to 380 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,640 Speaker 5: want to play into politicians' hands, you know, basically trying 381 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 5: to make him escapegoat as if he were picking, you know, 382 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 5: a horse in the race, because he doesn't and won't. 383 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,160 Speaker 5: So if we get to July, and that's the first 384 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 5: rate cut, and Bostic has mentioned that they're not going 385 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 5: to be back to back, and I think he speaks 386 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 5: for the committee. You're not going to see one in August, 387 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 5: possibly even September. I don't see how you get three 388 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 5: in and even more importantly, in all my years at 389 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 5: watching the Fed, and it goes back to the late seventies, 390 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 5: I can never remember a Fed cutting interest rates when 391 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 5: the economy was growing, when inflation was either stagnant or 392 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 5: ticking potentially. 393 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 8: Higher, and jobs growth was strong. 394 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 5: I realized there's a gap between where the FED funds 395 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 5: rate is and where the inflation rate is. But that 396 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 5: doesn't necessarily mean the Fed has to close that in 397 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 5: the heartbeat because of the fear that that potentially turned. 398 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 5: There's no reason to believe that that gap is going 399 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 5: to remain at roughly the two percent spread that it 400 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 5: is right now. 401 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 8: And I think the traders are over their speeds on this. 402 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 2: Hey, Vincent, but you know, the longest time you were 403 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 2: saying that the Fed should be rating cutting rates, that 404 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 2: they were behind, that they should be cutting rates, that's changed. 405 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 8: Well. I think what happened is they missed the boat. 406 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 8: They took too long. 407 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 5: You know, as inflation was coming down from that five 408 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 5: and a half level to the three and a half level, 409 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 5: they had every opportunity to cut rates. 410 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 8: They had two years to cut rates. 411 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 5: It's so afraid that they were going to be behind 412 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 5: the curve again as they were in the transient story 413 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 5: when they forgot to raise rates, that fear kept them 414 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 5: back from cutting. Now we're in a situation where inflation 415 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 5: is stopped going down, so now they have the worry that, wow, 416 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 5: if they cut rates now, could they fuel inflation? 417 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,919 Speaker 8: Could they cause inflation to tick higher? You know, as 418 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 8: inflation was coming down, and inflation is just. 419 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 5: As much a psychological influence on consumers as it is 420 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,239 Speaker 5: a factual influence. As inflation was coming down, had they 421 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 5: started to cut rates back then, maybe eighteen months or 422 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 5: so ago, that would have fed into consumer expectations that 423 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,479 Speaker 5: things were getting better, Prices might be coming down, and 424 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 5: you might have seen prices come down a little bit 425 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 5: as consumers change by and habits. But with the Fed 426 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 5: holding rates where they were and keeping mortgage rates as 427 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 5: high as they are, that's changed consumer behavior and change 428 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 5: consumer sentiment. 429 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 8: And now I think is a point where it's too late. Now. 430 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 5: They need to see inflation begin to start slowly once 431 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 5: again before they can pull the trigger, and that's not 432 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 5: what we're seeing. 433 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 3: By Vince, your former trader, how would you be positioning 434 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 3: right now me if. 435 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 5: I were playing the yield curve, I think there's absolutely 436 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 5: no reason to be anywhere but two years and in 437 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 5: you're looking at roughly four point seven percent on a 438 00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,159 Speaker 5: two year yield, looking at four point three zero zero 439 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,360 Speaker 5: percent on a ten year, there's no reason to pay 440 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 5: for duration. Two things are going to happen. I'm dead wrong, 441 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 5: and the Fed cuts rates sooner, which means the two 442 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 5: year out rallies way better than the ten year because 443 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 5: the curve, the curve will steep in, but it'll will 444 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 5: steep in favor of twos. I'm right, and the Fed 445 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 5: doesn't cut, and if they don't cut, twos will probably 446 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 5: stay reasonably within where they are, but you'll see steepening 447 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 5: of the curve as the back end reprices for higher 448 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 5: inflation down the road. So there's no reason to be 449 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 5: paying to be paying for duration right now. I would 450 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 5: stick in the short end as far as Treasury is concerned, 451 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 5: and I think the widow maker trade, which is everybody's 452 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,640 Speaker 5: been betting for five years the dollar will go down, 453 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 5: could be exactly the opposite of that. Once again, if 454 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,919 Speaker 5: the Fed doesn't comply, and you know, we saw it 455 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 5: with the Bank of Japan, we'll probably see it with 456 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 5: the ECB. We're probably going to see it with the 457 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 5: Bank of Canada given their better inflation numbers this morning. 458 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 5: The last bank that will probably cut will be the FED, 459 00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 5: and that speaks to potentially higher dollars. 460 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,679 Speaker 2: Vince, you mentioned the Bank of Japan and again the 461 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 2: big news this morning on the Bloomer terminals the Bank 462 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 2: of Japan ending it's era of negative interest rates are 463 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 2: a little bit of positive rates there. What'd you make 464 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 2: of that? How important is that? 465 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 8: You know? 466 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 5: I think it's kind of a one and done story 467 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 5: for the Bank of Japan. I think they just wanted 468 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,679 Speaker 5: to get on the same page as everybody else. But 469 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 5: they're still in a situation where the problem with the 470 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 5: economy of Japan is their immigration policy, it's not their 471 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 5: interest rate. Paut having a very difficult time growing and 472 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 5: growing inflation. So for the Bank of Japan to turn 473 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 5: around and start worrying about inflation right now, I think 474 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 5: is very very premature, and that's why you're seeing dahala 475 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 5: yen out of a one fifty handle. I've seen some people 476 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 5: talk about if the Fed cuts dollar, yen is going 477 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 5: to go to one forty four. I would so take 478 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 5: the other side of that trade. If I were playing this, 479 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 5: I don't see that happening at all. And I think, 480 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 5: you know, the Bank of Japan is going to be 481 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 5: last once again, and they need to be. 482 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 8: They're not in the same position. There's the other central 483 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 8: Paxil and Vince. 484 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:03,920 Speaker 3: I'm going to Europe in a few months. There's a 485 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,359 Speaker 3: lot going on with central banks decisions and inflation data 486 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:09,959 Speaker 3: and everything else. Am I going to be in a 487 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 3: better or worse position in June? 488 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 8: I think you're going to be in a better position. 489 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 5: I think if anything, if anything, there's a great debate 490 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:19,439 Speaker 5: on the ECB right now. 491 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 8: They're all over the place. 492 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,199 Speaker 5: I mean, you listen to an ECB speaker on a 493 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 5: day to day basis. One is saying no hikes, no cuts. 494 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 5: Another is saying we need to cut right away. You 495 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 5: know this morning there were comments from beginning do its 496 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 5: about saying that we need to wait till the summertime 497 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 5: to see whether or not we're going to cut rates. 498 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 5: I think, I think for the ECB, and you look 499 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,640 Speaker 5: at the economy and their economic growth cycle, far more 500 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 5: likely to cut rates sooner than the Fed. And I 501 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 5: think that'll speak to a weaker euro and a little 502 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 5: more inflation money in your pocket. There or the case 503 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 5: in your pocket their value. 504 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 2: Any Is there is there any barecase for the US dollar? Vince? 505 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,199 Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely. You know. 506 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,679 Speaker 5: One of the things that a story I read on 507 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,120 Speaker 5: the terminal this morning is about the pressure we're seeing 508 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 5: in CRE. I think the commercial real estate market and 509 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 5: the problems in that space are very, very very underrated. 510 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 5: You know, Powell made the comments and others have made 511 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 5: the comments that they think the banks. 512 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,439 Speaker 8: Are okay, they're not worried about it. 513 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,159 Speaker 5: BERNANKI made the same comments about housing in two thousand 514 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 5: and eight and wasn't quite right about that one. 515 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 8: So I think the real estate market could. 516 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 5: Be the black Swan event in the US, and in 517 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:34,880 Speaker 5: that then changes the entire landscape for central banks and 518 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 5: even the governments. But we're in a very different position 519 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 5: now in terms of how we would rescue or how 520 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,360 Speaker 5: we would rescue an economy. 521 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 8: At the point, we've got thirty three trillion dollars on 522 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 8: the books of debt in this country right now. That's 523 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,439 Speaker 8: not what we had in two thousand and eight. 524 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 5: So where the money is going to come from to 525 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,080 Speaker 5: save the day is going to be interesting because it's 526 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 5: just not really there. 527 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 2: Yep, Vince, thanks so much. For joining us. Always appreciate 528 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 2: getting your thoughts there. Vince Cignarella, one of the Smart 529 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,679 Speaker 2: Voice as we talked to about how markets are moving 530 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 2: and reacting to data. Vince Signette, mac wrote strategist for 531 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:21,479 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. Your daily look around the front pages, Lisa Matteo, 532 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 2: You've got some newspaper stories that we need to chat about, 533 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 2: don't we? 534 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 4: We do we do? 535 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 9: Okay, So you know the Stanley water bottles, right, the 536 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 9: ones that women love them, the tweens love them. They're 537 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 9: like forty five Bucks that has a straw everything. 538 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 2: And they carry him everywhere, everywhere. 539 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 4: Everywhere you go. 540 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 9: It has to I personally don't have Stanley's, but my 541 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 9: team does. 542 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 4: You know who else does? My husband? And that's what 543 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 4: they're trying to do. He's not the demo they're trying 544 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:47,159 Speaker 4: to flip flop it. 545 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 9: Stanley wants to get more men to start to buy these, 546 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 9: and not the guy, the outdoorsy guys, you know who 547 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 9: they originally wanted. They want, you know, the new guy, 548 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 9: the one who cares about how he looks his group. 549 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 2: Rob Bragg. We're talking about exactly. 550 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 9: The cool guy they want the sleek water bottle. So 551 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 9: They're gonna have some new products out like that sleek one. 552 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 4: Maybe for you Bailly to see. 553 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 3: More of a YETI guy, though, oh you are yet 554 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 3: Maybe the outdoors eness to a degree much. 555 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 2: Better Yetti or Stanley in terms of keeping it cold, 556 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 2: because a YETI is unbelievable. 557 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:18,640 Speaker 8: I think there's Bloomberg. 558 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 3: Should buy me both and I'll do a side by side. 559 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 2: Okay, here Stanley and Yetti. But I do love it 560 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 2: yet Yet. 561 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:25,560 Speaker 4: No, this is not a yetyone. 562 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,719 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg that's smer, which I didn't get. 563 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,440 Speaker 2: I don't know how you get olders like that. I've 564 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,880 Speaker 2: been here for fifteen years, like, oh nothing, what else 565 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 2: you got? 566 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 9: Since we're talking drinking, we're talking about dry January never Okay, yeah, 567 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 9: you've never done it. 568 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:39,200 Speaker 4: No, we've done it. 569 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,440 Speaker 9: But apparently a lot of people at Soho House did. 570 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 9: They got record sales for non alcoholic drinks in January. 571 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 4: The CEO is saying, it's something crazy. 572 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 9: They have, you know, virgin versions of old fashions, Moscow mules, 573 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 9: alcohol free draft beer, non alcoholic wine. But this is 574 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 9: all happening even as people spent less last year on 575 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,360 Speaker 9: food and beverages in the three months before January, so 576 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 9: they're still into this whole dry January shene. But now 577 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 9: it's starting to move on where people are just going 578 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:08,120 Speaker 9: non alcoholics. 579 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 10: I want to know if the margins are higher on 580 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 10: non alcoholic cocktails, like if you go to New York City, 581 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 10: a mocktail as they call it, are fourteen dollars still 582 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 10: and there's no spirit really liquor, so they're only a 583 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:19,640 Speaker 10: few dollars cheaper. 584 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 3: I can't imagine that they're not making more money off 585 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 3: that I have. 586 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 2: Now that's a good point. 587 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 7: So it is. 588 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 3: It does come in a little bit cheaper, a little 589 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 3: bit cheaper a couple bucks, but you're still My dad, 590 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 3: who doesn't drink, is like, why would I spend fourteen 591 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 3: dollars for something that kind of almost a little bit 592 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 3: tastes like an old fashioned and it's juice to and 593 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:36,119 Speaker 3: just get. 594 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:36,800 Speaker 2: The old man of seltzer. 595 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,439 Speaker 6: Exactly exactly, all right. 596 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 2: What's happening in Texas? 597 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 9: So the eclipse is coming right April eighth, So small 598 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 9: budget hotels in Texas, this is from Bloomberg. They are 599 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 9: charging more than a thousand dollars a night for a 600 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 9: room because people are flocking to these small Texas towns, 601 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 9: and that is eight to ten times more than what 602 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 9: they normally charge for it. 603 00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:58,640 Speaker 4: So they're sparking up. 604 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 9: These prices Texas, which I didn't know this. Why are 605 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 9: they going to Texas. It's because it has a lower 606 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 9: chance of cloud cover, So that's why people go to 607 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 9: Texas to see this. 608 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:08,879 Speaker 2: There's certain parts of the country that are going to 609 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 2: do better with the viewing of this. 610 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 9: Rate exactly, and that's why they're saying Texas is better. 611 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 4: But you have other hotels. 612 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 9: Oklahoma, Arkansas, they're charging like these exorbitant prices for. 613 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 4: People to stay to way. 614 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 2: So it's April eighth, So the Wine Country in in Fredericksburg, 615 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 2: a hill country town in the zone of totality, Okay, 616 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 2: where e clips viewing will be at its best April eighth, 617 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 2: once eight dollars with Texas for a king. So I 618 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 2: don't know what are we seeing here. I'm seeing like 619 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,800 Speaker 2: an eclipse or something climpse. 620 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 4: Yes, but if you miss it. Here's the thing. 621 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,400 Speaker 9: There won't be another one covering like such a large 622 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 9: part of the country until twenty forty five, So that's 623 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 9: why this is like a big deal. 624 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 2: I can still be here for that, we could rental 625 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 2: cars sold out at Austin's Airport r V parks. 626 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 9: We're filling them, I'm telling you, and they're charging more 627 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 9: too for them. 628 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,240 Speaker 2: Maybe that's where Tom keenes. Maybe Tom Key's in an 629 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 2: RV parking. 630 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 4: Imagine that no research channel. 631 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 2: Checking would not popping upen a you know a country, 632 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 2: you know, a tall boy somewhere. Okay, I you know, 633 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 2: I'll see it. What I mean in New Jersey? What 634 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 2: am I going to see? New Gym. I'm looking at 635 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 2: the map here. I don't think I'm getting much, but 636 00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 2: I'll be under too much. But it depends on the 637 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 2: New Jersey. That's a thing, all right, very good. It 638 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 2: looks like it's kind of the mid part of the country, 639 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 2: you know, Texas through a western New York up there, 640 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 2: you know, up in that whole path there. That's kind 641 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 2: of the best big thing. Okay, very good? What else? 642 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 3: All right? 643 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 9: The New York posts they are reporting because you know 644 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 9: how at the sphere, you two, they just closed their 645 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 9: last forty shows earlier this month. 646 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:42,400 Speaker 4: You missed it. 647 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 2: I missed it, okay. 648 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 9: But they're reporting that someone else could be taking the 649 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 9: place here. The Eagles, that's what they're saying reportedly agreed 650 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 9: to residency as a sphere after they finish up what 651 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 9: was actually their final tour this spring. 652 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 4: But I guess it's not their final tour. 653 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 9: It was a long goodbye tour. It ends June fifteenth 654 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 9: of another so apparently they might be coming back ten 655 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 9: weekends September through December. No word on you know how 656 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 9: many shows are going to have, but it should be 657 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 9: a pretty. 658 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 4: I don't know. 659 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 2: I mean I heard this. I mean, the sphere just 660 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 2: looks phenomenal from every I mean, I've seen all the 661 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 2: YouTube videos. It just looks extraordinary, and even from the 662 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 2: outside during the Super Bowl, I mean, Jimmy Dolan and 663 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 2: the folks at MSG man, they really created something. 664 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 4: I think they paid like ten mil to you two 665 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 4: for doing that. 666 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 3: Just bringing yeah though, yeah, I mean it's total Vegas. 667 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 2: It's total Vegas. 668 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 10: Yeah. 669 00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 3: I will say I was at a charity event a 670 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago and Don Feld there. 671 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 2: One of the guitars he was performing, he absolutely shreds. 672 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 2: You would not guess he is as old as he is. 673 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 2: I don't actually know how old he is. I'm guessing 674 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 2: seventies somewhere older. There's there's an eighties generation, which is 675 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 2: the Stones and the Beatles. There's a seventies generation which 676 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 2: is now Bruce Eagles. I guess you know those kinds 677 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 2: of people, but that's they're getting. 678 00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 4: Up fun factor. 679 00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 2: First concert I ever saw was Aerosmith. Really that's a 680 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 2: good one. 681 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, that is a sic semon cheap Trick. I've seen 682 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 3: cheap Trick like six times. 683 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 2: They open for everyone. 684 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 3: If you're ever going to see a seventies ban or 685 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 3: eighties band, cheap Trick probably is on the seventy six 686 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 3: for the. 687 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,320 Speaker 2: For the some of the Eagles folks. 688 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 4: So what was your first concert? 689 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 2: Beach Boys beach Yeah, yeah, well well I saw, you know, 690 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 2: I saw I take that back, yeah, Beach Boys. But 691 00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,360 Speaker 2: then I saw Bruce back Man late seventies in Philadelphia. 692 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 2: Uh so some club down in Philadelphia. So those were 693 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 2: the days. So anyway, the spear is a big thing. 694 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 2: MSG Jimmy Dolan make it. I wonder how much money 695 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 2: that thing makes. I'd love to. I'll take a look 696 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,239 Speaker 2: at the fenders publicly traded hr Man. Ye actually all right, 697 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 2: look at that. So all right, we got the Eagles, 698 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 2: you know, or who's left tour here. 699 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:48,479 Speaker 3: All right. 700 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,400 Speaker 2: That was Lisa Matteo giving us the latest from the newspapers. 701 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,960 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best 702 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 2: in economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. You can also watch 703 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 2: the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel 704 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 2: on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven 705 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 2: to ten Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. 706 00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,440 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else 707 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 2: you listen, and as always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, 708 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 2: and the Bloomberg Business app.