1 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network. 2 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman in today Chris Ravan and Stucky 3 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:21,760 Speaker 1: Mix Stucky, our NFL experts who co host our award 4 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: winning Action Network NFL podcast. We are going to go 5 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: deep on an NFC preview Division odds conference, odds, Super 6 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: Bowl odds. Who do they like? Who do I Like? 7 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 1: Also a reminder, two weeks ago we as fans to 8 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: rate and review the podcast. Those who did and use 9 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: the winning phrase I feel for Colin and Stucky in 10 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: their review became eligible to win a free Action Network hoodie. 11 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,559 Speaker 1: We had lots and lots of reviews. Thank you for that. 12 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,279 Speaker 1: Later in the show we will reveal one winner and 13 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: we are doing another phrase that pays same practice. Go 14 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: rate and review the podcast using the phrase I need 15 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: a six pack. We all need a six pack right now. 16 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: But my favorite Action Network podcast segment is from Ray 17 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 1: Bond and Stucky in the award winning Action Network NFL 18 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 1: podcast when they make their six picks. If we choose 19 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: your review, you will win a free Action Network couldy. First, 20 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: Let's do the main thing. The main thing, Raybond, Stucky 21 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 1: good to see if Fella is good to hear your voices. Likewise, Chatte, 22 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: when are you going to join us with an award 23 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: on your podcast? You know what my greatest pride, Stucky, 24 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 1: if that is your real name, is seeing the growth 25 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: of the entire Action Network in aggregate. The fact that 26 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast has more listeners than mine, even 27 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: though mine had been around longer and once upon a 28 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: time had more listeners than the Action Network podcast. The 29 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: fact that you guys are part of an award winning podcast. 30 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: That to me is the ultimate reward. My awards are 31 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: your awards, chatt and if you win any, I assume 32 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 1: that they're mine as well. You know what else I 33 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: would like if your money was my money. So if 34 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: you could just start giving me the money you win 35 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: from all your bets, starting with the bets we're gonna 36 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: talk about today, that would be fantastic. Let's do it. 37 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: But I'm excited to talk NFL. Let's go. You said 38 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: you're to talk NFL. You did not say you were 39 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: excited to actually let me partake in this money. Here 40 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,679 Speaker 1: we go, division odds. Here's how I want to break 41 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: this down. We're in the first part. We're gonna do 42 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: three parts in this uh in this episode, we're gonna 43 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:43,119 Speaker 1: do the first part division picks. There are four divisions. 44 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: I want each of you to give me your first 45 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: pick for your favorite pick of division futures. Raybon, you 46 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: get to go first. I would say my favorite in 47 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: terms of all around value is the Seattle Seahawks at 48 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: plus two twenty to win the NFC West. And that's 49 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 1: because if you look at Seattle, they've won nine or 50 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 1: more games every single year with Russell Wilson, So you're 51 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: you have this automatic built in floor. Most teams, I 52 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: would be uh, kind of pessimistic or or kind of 53 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 1: barished on the trade. I'm giving up so many picks 54 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: for Jamal Adams, But with the Seahawks, Russell Wilson gets 55 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: you to the fourth quarter pretty much weekend and week out. 56 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:25,239 Speaker 1: They needed an impact player like that on their defense. 57 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: And I'm not saying Seattle is quite as good as 58 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,799 Speaker 1: they were in the Marshawn Heyday, but man, that's a 59 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: dangerous team. Uh. Their odds imply about a thirty one 60 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: percent chance to win that division. It's pretty wide open. 61 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: I think the Niners will regress, So I like Seattle 62 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: at plus two twenty to win the NFC West. I 63 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: hate everything about that pick. I hate it, but Stucky, 64 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: I want you to tell me what you think. You 65 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: can't just say that and then just kick it to 66 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: somebody elseide. You want me to tell you you want 67 00:03:55,720 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: me to one one number one. This defense is dreadful. 68 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 1: This defense could not be worse. And don't don't roll 69 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: your eyes at me, Roban, like, this defense is so 70 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: bad and it cannot be Russell Wilson miracle worker every 71 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: single week in order to get them to nine ten 72 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: eleven wins, number one, number two. Like to me, that 73 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,160 Speaker 1: division is changing hands every single year. It is becoming 74 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: the NFC East. And of all people, of all people, 75 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 1: to tell me you don't like a team that is 76 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: led by Kyler Murray to potentially be the best odds 77 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: in that division and the one where you think there 78 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: could be the most value is insane to me because 79 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 1: you were on the Kyler Murray Murray bandwagon before anybody else. Yeah, Kyra, 80 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: worry is more like it. And listen, chat, I think 81 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: you look at that. Seattle secondary Jamal Adams was ranked 82 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: as a top five safety by Pro Football Focus last year. 83 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: Shaquille Griffin, one of the corners ranked tenth out of 84 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: one corners by PFF. We don't know if Dunbar will play, 85 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: but if he does, h that was a top two corner, 86 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: then you have uh, you know, the the safety Quandre 87 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: Digs was also a top twenty five ranked players. So 88 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: that secondary is not quite leg of the boom, but 89 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: it's up there. It's dangerous. You still have Bobby Wagner, 90 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: one of the top linebackers in the game, roam in 91 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,039 Speaker 1: the middle. Yes, they could use a little more talent 92 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: on the defensive line, but that back seven is going 93 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: to keep them in games. And that's all you need. 94 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 1: And you say, hey, Russell Wilson cant do it year 95 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: in a year out. He's never had a losing season. 96 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 1: He's never had a losing season. That's a great bet 97 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: in my opinion. When Seattle is not favored to win 98 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: that division, their defensive line. PFF might have them as 99 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 1: one of the worst defensive lines in football. Okay, so 100 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,239 Speaker 1: don't give me like their defensive line could use more talent. 101 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: That is the cap out right there, Raybond, for someone 102 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: who puts metrics and numbers and rigger behind every single 103 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: thing you say, to say their defensive line could use 104 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: a little more talent. Is like saying, uh, you know 105 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: what it's got like the candy cane and it's a 106 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: it's a little too minty for me. I actually don't 107 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: mind it. I can't believe he's going against Jimmy G 108 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 1: and um Kyler Mary two of his boys. I don't 109 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 1: I'm not a buyer of Jimmy G and this The 110 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: forty Night is gonna have a great running game. They're 111 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 1: gonna have a great defense. But who they throwing the 112 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: ball to? Their wide receiver corps decimated and they lost 113 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: Emmanuel Sanders. The Seahawks are a tricky team because you know, 114 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: they actually won eleven games. Their Pythagoran wins were like 115 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 1: eight and eight, and James like they were. They won 116 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: like a million one session games. That's what they do. 117 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: They just run the ball in the first that they 118 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 1: get behind, and then they unleash Russell Wilson. Their offensive 119 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: line is bad, their defensive line is really bad. I 120 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: actually love the signing of Jamal Adams so much, and 121 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: I don't care what the Sehawks give away. The Seahawks 122 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: draft fourth round draft picks in the first round, so 123 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter that they give a round first round 124 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: draft picks. He changes the defense. And then with digs, 125 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: if you have two safeties in that cover three defense, 126 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: that's what you that's what you They They had run 127 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: a bunch of cover to last year and Pete Carroll's 128 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: you know, he's a pure over three guy, but they've 129 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: had no safety the last couple of years. You know, 130 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: this is going back to Earl Thomas cam Chancellor. Now 131 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:08,040 Speaker 1: you have probably the best safety in the game. He's 132 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: gonna help with the ron. You can cover the slot. 133 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: I mean, you could do so many different things. And 134 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: then obviously you upgraded your corner position as well. You 135 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: have great linebackers, so I think that can make up 136 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: for you know, this is a passing league that can 137 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: make up for some of your weaknesses up front. The 138 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 1: one thing that I don't like about them is this 139 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: unique year in that you without fans, you're losing maybe 140 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: the best home field advantage in the NFL, and the 141 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: Seahawks will travel more miles than any other team in 142 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: the NFL. Um and you know, you have to assume 143 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: that this year travel is going to be difficult, burdensome. 144 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: It's not gonna be as easy as it normally is 145 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: so those they have those two things working against them. Um, 146 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: but if I were to choose between the fort and Seahawks, 147 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: I would go with the Seahawks. Um outside future shot, 148 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: I might look at the Cardinals, but I don't hate 149 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Pick I Jamal Adams upgrades that defense so much. 150 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: Stuck mentioned every team in that division except the Rams, 151 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: and I know Stuck is down on the Rams, But 152 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: if you're looking for a pure long shot value, I 153 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: think the Rams are probably the best one on the 154 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: board in terms of just straight up like their plus 155 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: five fifty and implies about a fifteen percent chance to 156 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: win that division. And and and this is all stemming from 157 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: the fact that I think San Francisco is just overvalued 158 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: to win that division at minus one of six, that 159 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: implies better than a fifty fifty chance, no way in 160 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: that type of a division. But the Rams are plus 161 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 1: five fifty. They've had eleven, thirteen and nine wins and 162 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: average of eleven in the three years under Sean McVeigh. So, Um, 163 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 1: the Rams could crap the bed and go seven and 164 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: nine this year, but they also have a lot of 165 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: upside um just best on when he's been able to 166 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: do so I think there's a lot of value in 167 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: this division in fading the Niners period stuck you did 168 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: not do you want to give your sort of if 169 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,719 Speaker 1: you're drafting of division picks. Yeah. I hate their Rams 170 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 1: by the way, they have no offensive line, golf stinks, 171 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 1: and they lost all their defense, their best defensive players. 172 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,559 Speaker 1: They have two faive Donald and Ramsey, and there's a 173 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: lot of other questions and US are decordinator. But if 174 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 1: I'm going my number one pick out of all the 175 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 1: teams in the NFC, I probably go with Dallas. I 176 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 1: know that it's chalky, but I am really down on 177 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 1: the Eagles, and I'm above market projections on Dallas and 178 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: I'm wayed below the market on the Eagles. A lot 179 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: of that has to do with their secondary. People think 180 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,319 Speaker 1: that Darius Slay is going to solve their secondary issues, 181 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: which have been there's been a lot of them over 182 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: the past couple of years. It's been their biggest weakness. 183 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 1: I think he's over the hill and you know these corners, 184 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: he's man to man corners, and he's a guy that 185 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 1: follows the best receiver. They hit thirty around thirty, and 186 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: they can fall off a cliff in production, and they 187 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: can go from a top five ten corner to like 188 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: bottom twenty easily. And that's what he was last year. 189 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: Some people say I just wanted to get out of 190 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: the Troy. I mean he still has to. He was 191 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: playing man to man. It's all the Lions do. What 192 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: was he just not covering? He just decided someplace. I'm 193 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 1: just gonna stand here. No, his production was down. I 194 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: you know, they're replacing their safety with a corner. I 195 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: don't believe in Maddox, so I think they're they have 196 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 1: no linebackers. They don't. I know people don't value linebackers 197 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: and they only play one or two linebackers on most downs. 198 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: But I mean, you're what they have the defensive lines. 199 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: I'm not buying their defense. Their offensive line now doesn't 200 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 1: have as much continuity in town as normal. Some way 201 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: down on them, And I love what Dallas did in 202 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 1: the off season in multi ways. You know, adding Lamb 203 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 1: is their third Receiver's probably gonna learn a lot of 204 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 1: three wide receiver sets. That offense is gonna be great. 205 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: All they gotta do is find a center to replace Frederick, 206 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: which is a big question. But if they can shure 207 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 1: up that spot, in their offensive line stays healthy. This 208 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 1: is one of the best offenses in the NFL. But 209 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: I love what they did on the defensive side. You know, 210 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: they signed all these guys on the defensive line. You 211 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:44,679 Speaker 1: know they brought they just brought in Griffin as well. 212 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: They brought in po Um McCoy, but he got hurt. 213 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, you're right, just keep by the way keeping 214 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: up with all the injuries. Is he's done for thee 215 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: of itself. Um, But that loss isn't even that big 216 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: with with now you have you brought in Griffin. But 217 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,479 Speaker 1: most importantly, I know there's some questions in the secondary. 218 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 1: You know, they lost Byron Jones. Their secondaries very young. 219 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,319 Speaker 1: But the new defensive coordinator, Michael is gonna be really 220 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: aggressive and that's what they need to do to make 221 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: up for some of the weak links at corner. They're 222 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: gonna blitz a lot more. They just didn't last year 223 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 1: for whatever reason. So I think the scheme changes on 224 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: defense are going to benefit this this team that just 225 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: has been underperforming a duf It's not been able to 226 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: get takeaways, not being able to get key stops on 227 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 1: third down, so low on the I can't see the 228 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 1: Giants or the Redskins winning the division. If you want 229 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: to argue for those, maybe Raybond will sure. I'm just 230 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: low a lot lower in the Eagles and a lot 231 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: higher on the Cowboys that I like the Cowboys to 232 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: win that division alright, So right now, the Cowboys, I 233 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: think it's Raftkings are minus one ten to win the 234 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 1: NFC East. Raybond, what do you think of his choice 235 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 1: for the NFC East and the Dallas Cowboys. This it's 236 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: an important distinction for for the listeners out there, especially 237 00:11:56,640 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: between what's most likely to happen in what it constitutes 238 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: of a good value in terms of betting, because I 239 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: do think the Cowboys are clearly the most likely team 240 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: to win that division. I think everything that Stuck said 241 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 1: in comparing them to the Eagles is correct. The Eagles 242 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 1: went nine and seven last year. The Cowboys went eight 243 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 1: and eight. But you look at their margin of victory, 244 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 1: which is much more predictive of future performance than straight 245 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 1: up win loss record. The Eagles average margin of victory 246 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: one point nine, in the Cowboys seven point one. So 247 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 1: the Cowboys were a far superior team that just ran 248 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: into some bad luck. Uh. In terms of their you 249 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: know the teams they played and kind of how everything 250 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 1: played out. But that being said, uh, it's kind of 251 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: the same deal with the forty niners. No team is really, 252 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: in my opinion, gonna be good enough that they should 253 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 1: be fifty fifty or better to win a division. Those 254 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: are just kind of odds that are playing on the hype. 255 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 1: With the Cowboys, um, some of the common things cited 256 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 1: for for this, like the addition of Cede Lamb, which 257 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: is a great addition, but you look at who he's replacing, 258 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:04,199 Speaker 1: Randall Cob last year average ten yards to target, fifteen 259 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: yards to catch. It's unlikely that Lamb actually does better 260 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: than that. So in terms of your actual you know, 261 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: adding points to their their spread or their you know rating, 262 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 1: it's probably a wash. You're not really going to improve 263 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 1: on that. So the offense is kind of maxed out 264 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:21,839 Speaker 1: where you have it. I think the defense has room 265 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: for improvement and that's gonna be key. But at fifty 266 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: that better than fifty to fifty fifty fifty odds. I 267 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: can't take the Cowboys. The Eagles are way over value 268 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 1: to there. At plus one forty, that implies a forty 269 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: two percent chance, and that leaves me. And this is 270 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 1: disgusting because again it's a difference between betting value and 271 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: what's most likely to happen. But that just leaves me 272 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 1: with the Giants at ten to one, because the Cowboys 273 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: are not better than fifty fifty to win the division. 274 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 1: The Eagles aren't forty two percent. The Giants are better 275 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 1: than ten percent to win that division. I'm not saying 276 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: it's by a ton, but they're better than ten percent, 277 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 1: and they may be almost double that. So if you're 278 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: looking for value, it's disgusting. But the it's the Giants 279 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: or bust the why Sington football team. I have their 280 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: under on five and a half wins, so we're now 281 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: even going to go into that that that team has 282 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 1: had it for disaster in my opinion, but um value 283 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: on the Giants. In my opinion, dude, I am totally 284 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: with you on the Giants. Like to me that, actually, 285 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: I know you say it's disgusting. I say it's I 286 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: say it's kind of a no brainer like for all 287 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 1: And again, I'm not doing this to bet like the 288 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: obvious team at sort of low numbers, right, I'm doing 289 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: this because I want to invest a little bit now 290 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: and make a little bit later, and if I lose it, 291 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: it's not so much that I'm like that disappointed. Right, 292 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: So I love, love, love the Giants attend to one. 293 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 1: But neither of you, neither of you have really given 294 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 1: the team that has sort of the best the best chance, 295 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: the best value, Okay, because that is the Chicago Bears, 296 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: who are about plus three eighty. I think we got 297 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: him at DraftKings. I got him earlier this year. I 298 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: got him at plus four to win the NFC North. 299 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 1: A couple of things number one, and I gotta say 300 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: I also love the Vikings as a Super Bowl contender, 301 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: and we'll get to that later in the show. But um, Chicago. 302 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: They were eight and eight with Mitch Drubisky, and I 303 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: got a lot of issues with Matt Nige as a 304 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: Chicago guy. I do feel like, especially two years ago, 305 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: he made really dreadful decisions, like in moments of the 306 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: game where he should have left Rubisky have the ball. 307 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: Instead he got very conservative when they were still out 308 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: of field goal range and then put field goal kickers 309 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 1: in bad spots. And like it's become a little bit 310 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: of a joke, how sort of the Bears kicking woes. 311 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: But two years ago. I put that on age and 312 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: sort of bad decision making and how we managed the 313 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: game plan as the game got later in the game, 314 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: as it got later in the game. Last year goes 315 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: eight and eight with sort of a lot of rash 316 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 1: of injuries and a little bit of aggression. This defense 317 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: is still really good like it is. It is low 318 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: did with playmakers. Eddie Goldman is sitting out, so they're 319 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 1: losing something on the defensive line. But you talk about 320 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: linebacker corps, you talk about defensive backfield, it's loaded. And 321 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: I actually think Nick Foles is an upgrade over Drabinsky, 322 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: especially playing again with Matt Nagy, who he's been had 323 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 1: so much success with. So give me the Bears at 324 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: four to one in the division. We're like, nobody has 325 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: written about the Packers not being as good anymore more 326 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: than you raybon Um, and so like, I think the 327 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 1: Packers regressed, the lines are in a good The Bears 328 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 1: competition is the Vikings. Yeah, I totally agree. Um. I 329 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: actually bet the Bears around that same number, if something 330 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: like four fifty five a couple of months ago. I 331 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 1: think this is a three team race. No disrespected Detroit. 332 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: I just don't know if it's quite working there. I 333 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: don't know if the town is there, even though I 334 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: have a lot of respect from Matthew Stafford. Um, but 335 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 1: as you said, Chad, this is a three team race. UM. 336 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: I know Stux Packers. Stuck had a great future on 337 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: the Packers last year, and and he got him all 338 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: the way to the NFC Championship. However, I think you 339 00:16:58,040 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 1: know Stuck, you and I both could agreed at the 340 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: Sackers got a little bit lucky last year. You look 341 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: at their margin of victory it was three point nine 342 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,199 Speaker 1: compared to the Vikings which was six point five. You know, 343 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: Cowboys seven one st seven three, and the Cowboys with 344 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 1: the fifth best team in the NFC in terms of 345 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: margin of victory, I don't think they got better. I 346 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 1: don't think that Matt Laflour is quite on the same 347 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: page with the front office. I think they're making decisions 348 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: for the futures and he's trying to win now and 349 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 1: he did a good job of it last year. Um. 350 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,959 Speaker 1: And that can't be dismissed. But ultimately, um, the numbers 351 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,360 Speaker 1: suggest the Packers are going to come back to the mean. 352 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: I've seen nothing out of Aaron Rodgers, Uh, to to 353 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 1: change that opinion. He's been average for five years now. 354 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,159 Speaker 1: And uh, the Vikings they lost some key town and 355 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:41,719 Speaker 1: it lost a good coach in Kevin Stefansk, a good 356 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. I should say, Um, you know they still 357 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 1: have you know, Zimmer and Kubiak, but uh, without Stefon Diggs, 358 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be tougher the defense, kind of 359 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:54,159 Speaker 1: bringing in a whole new secondary. The Bears still have 360 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: that defense. You're getting the quarterback discount. That's what you're 361 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: really getting with the Bears because they both they're shaky, 362 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: and none of them are better than Aaron Rodgers or 363 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. But that defenses is the best in the 364 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: in the division. And it's a much closer three team 365 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 1: race than you know the Bears with their plus three 366 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 1: eight implied twenty chance chance. So I actually loved that 367 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: pick their twenty and twelve and two years with nag Stuck. 368 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 1: I hate. I hate that pick. I hate the best. 369 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, I think Mitch Mitch Bortles 370 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 1: is the worst quarterback of the NFL. You've just been bordled, 371 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 1: and I actually don't think falls is that much better 372 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:34,879 Speaker 1: than that. He goes in there. But this team number one, 373 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: and no matter who the quarterback is, I worry about 374 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 1: voices in their ear right. You got a new quarterbacks coach, 375 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 1: a new passing in quarterback offensive coordinator, but the Naggies 376 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: calling plays um and then you have no preseason shortened prep. 377 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: But they can't run the ball because their offensive line 378 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 1: can't run block and they did nothing to upgrade their offensively. 379 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: They're opening a new offensive line coach can come in 380 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 1: and work magic um. But their defense I think is 381 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 1: actually overrated. Like Goldman's gonna hurt up front, but they've 382 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: had huge losses in the secondary of the past couple 383 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: of years. I mean, you're you're going and I think 384 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,200 Speaker 1: Eddie Jackson moving back the free safety could help and 385 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 1: they could create more turnovers. But you're gonna have busters screen. 386 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: I mean, and and hope and hope that Jalen Johnson, 387 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: the rookie could come in and play corner when you're 388 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: playing three corners. Um. So I don't think the secondary 389 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 1: is as good as people say. And obviously they've lost 390 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: Amos uh you know a couple of years ago now Dicks, 391 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: and you know they've had to turnover at corner as well, 392 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 1: and I think that the Goldman loss really hurts the front. 393 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 1: But I don't I don't believe in this offensive at all. Um, 394 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: I don't see it. I think the division is wide open. 395 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 1: I mean, the Vikings had a lot of losses on defense. 396 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: They obviously they're relying with Jefferson to coming to be 397 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: the second wide receiver, and you know, they still questioned 398 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,880 Speaker 1: the offensive line. So I think that they're worse off 399 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: the Packers. Yeah, they got extremely lucky last year and 400 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 1: they didn't address any of their needs. They still can't 401 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: stop the run. Their draft was horrible. I don't know 402 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 1: what they're doing. Maybe they're just gonna line up and 403 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 1: run power. I I mean, maybe that's why they drafted 404 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 1: a tight end and another running back. They still don't 405 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: have any receivers, so maybe they're just gonna try to 406 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: run power. I like a high school team with Aaron 407 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: Rodgers is the quarterback. I don't know. So I think 408 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: if you're gonna take a shot in this division, you 409 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 1: take a shot with the Lions because you take the 410 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 1: lowest odds and you just take you take a quarterback 411 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 1: that is capable, and you hope that in Bapatris just 412 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 1: cover one heavy that Accuda comes in, their new corners 413 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 1: come in and they can lock down on the outside 414 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 1: and that can go a long way and and creating 415 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: a much better defense than they had last year. So 416 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,360 Speaker 1: if you're gonna take a shot in a wide open division, 417 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: I'd go with the Lines any day over the Bears 418 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: so stuck and and I actually don't hate that. So 419 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: I'm guessing that you would even though you don't like 420 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: the Bears, you like your choice of the Lions, like 421 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: you do agree that the Vikings and Packers shouldn't have 422 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 1: a combined sevent in pride odds to win that division, 423 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: Like you know what I mean? Like is that something? Yeah? Okay? Yeah? 424 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 1: And then also you know it's in this year where 425 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: you could have you know, COVID, a COVID outbreak and 426 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 1: the team when there's shortened prep and you're gonna see 427 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 1: increased injuries. You know, you could see that too for 428 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 1: a really important player on a certain team, say Aaron 429 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 1: Rodgers goes down, We're just someone really important. With that, 430 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,199 Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be more soft tissue injuries that 431 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 1: increases the uncertainty, and obviously, um I think would lead 432 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 1: you to maybe want to take one of the longest 433 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: shots in this division because I think this division is 434 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 1: wide open, and you know, it's it's one of those 435 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 1: where if you kind of believe in a team, like 436 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: say you're you believe in the lines, maybe you take 437 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: a flyer on you know, a Super Bowl future or 438 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: the Bears, because not only could they potentially win this 439 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 1: division either one of them, but there's a seventh team 440 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: that gets in with the expanded playoffs, seventeen that gets 441 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: in the playoffs. And remember, if there's not gonna be fans, 442 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: then it's gonna be easier for teams to go on 443 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: the road, uh in the playoffs than it would be 444 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: saying you have to go to like, um, you know, 445 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 1: uh in the a f C. If you went to 446 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 1: a Kansas city, Um, you know, to play a road 447 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: game without fans. So um, I think this is a 448 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: division where you take a shot. That's the argument for golf. 449 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,439 Speaker 1: By the way, stuff, you know, like as much as 450 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: I know you're down on him, and you know, I 451 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: think he's pretty shaky, but you know, no no fans, 452 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,160 Speaker 1: so he can hear someone with every play. I think 453 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 1: he pointed it out one of our earlier podcasts. Yeah, 454 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: I said, he might be the one that benefits the 455 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 1: most because he excels when McVeigh can just tell him 456 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,400 Speaker 1: what to do exactly, Which is crazy that they sign 457 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:31,440 Speaker 1: up all that money because they could put Raybon or 458 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: Chat in their quarterback and as long as it's quiet, 459 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: you just tell him here, golf throat here, throat here. 460 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe there's no noise helps goff and he 461 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 1: has a huge year. So what I love about this 462 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: is like you're saying Detroit, which I'm shaking my head 463 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: at and discussed. Yet what you say about Detroit are 464 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: all the reasons that Raybon says the Giants and all 465 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: the reasons that I say the Cardinals, And yet we 466 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 1: have we all have such disdain for all of those 467 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 1: long shot picks because we have such belief in the 468 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 1: other picks we're making at the top of the board. 469 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 1: So let me summarize here. So, but but you a 470 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: quarter you need to say, like there's certain things that 471 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: the the the cow I think the Cowboys are really good, 472 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 1: and there's no really good team in this division and 473 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: in the NFC North. But like the Giants, they don't 474 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 1: I don't think they have a great quarterback. They don't 475 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 1: have a secondary, they don't have an offensive line, and 476 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 1: they don't have an edge rusher. So like these are 477 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: all the things you need in the NFL. The lines 478 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 1: have a quarterback, they have an offense, they have a 479 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:33,160 Speaker 1: potentially good secondary with with potential, so they have more 480 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 1: things of the Giants in a much worse division, um, 481 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: which is why I would go with a longer shot 482 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 1: in this division compared to the NFC. I mean to 483 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 1: be fair though that I ain again I've called the 484 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: Giants disgusting, so I'm not I don't want to be 485 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 1: out here truth thuring for the Giants. But Daniel Jones 486 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: really had one issue last year and it was fumbling. 487 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: That was his rookie year. He's generally impressively at three 488 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 1: four or more touchdown games, you know, five yard games 489 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 1: and a multiple touchdown rushing game. He can take a 490 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,639 Speaker 1: year to leap COVID or not. Um. The pass catchers 491 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,399 Speaker 1: are all really good around him, and you know they 492 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 1: got Bradberry Bakers entering year two, like they have upside. 493 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 1: I guess that's what I'm trying to say. Bakers, Bakers. 494 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: They still have a secon quarter and who's clothing. Well, honestly, 495 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: Baker might as well have been in jail last year 496 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 1: the way the way he was playing both. But no, 497 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,680 Speaker 1: My point is they have upside. The Giants have some upside. 498 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: I think in that division where you made great points, 499 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 1: the Eagles were probably too high in them. And the Cowboys, 500 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 1: I just don't think are substantially better than they were 501 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,239 Speaker 1: last year. Let me summarize, because we got one more 502 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:38,680 Speaker 1: division I want to get to, and then we got 503 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,119 Speaker 1: to get to conference the super Bowl. Right now. In 504 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: the NFC East, Stucky, there's not like the Giants, Raybond 505 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 1: likes the Giants, Stuck. He likes the Cowboys. In the 506 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:52,639 Speaker 1: NFC North, Chad loves, loves, loves the Bears Stuck. He 507 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 1: likes the Lions in the In the NFC West, Raybond 508 00:24:55,680 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: love Seattle. Stucky could take Seattle or Arizona. Chad loves Arizona. 509 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 1: That leaves a reason I left. I'm glad we're doing 510 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 1: this conference, this division last NFC South. It is the 511 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 1: milk toast of NFL conferences. Nobody will ever care about 512 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: this conference. The only reason anyone was talking about is 513 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,399 Speaker 1: because Tampa Bay has Tom Brady right now it's a 514 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 1: two team race. If New Orleans and Tampa Bay give 515 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 1: me any reason to take a team other than New 516 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 1: Orleans Tampa Bay in the NFC seth, I mean just 517 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 1: some of the arguments that I made earlier with uncertainty. 518 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,160 Speaker 1: So I think that if you're going to take any 519 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 1: other team, you have to look at the Falcons because 520 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,160 Speaker 1: they have a quarterback who's gotten to a Super Bowl 521 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 1: and cost me a lot of money, but they have 522 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: at the quarterback. Their defense I had a lot of 523 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 1: questions about, but it was really improved the whole second 524 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,879 Speaker 1: half of last year when they changed who's who's calling plays. 525 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 1: I still don't believe in the defense, but the offense 526 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 1: at least has potential, right and you have Tom Brady, 527 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: who's what's gonna be forty three and Drew Brees. There's 528 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,159 Speaker 1: not The Stints actually have quarterback depth though, so if 529 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,640 Speaker 1: something happens either one of them, Um but Brady, there's 530 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: questions on the with the tackles on the Tampa offensive line, 531 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: he's gonna be He's not gonna be digging a ducant 532 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,920 Speaker 1: in this offense. He's gonna be asked to throw more downfield. 533 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 1: He's gonna need time, he's gonna take more hits, so 534 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,119 Speaker 1: there's some injury risk there. There could be some regression 535 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,199 Speaker 1: for the Buck secondary. The Saints are just so solid 536 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 1: all around, and now they have quarterback depth. You know, 537 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: you have Winston and you have Hill that really eliminates 538 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 1: a lot of the risk where if Breeze gets hurt 539 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,880 Speaker 1: or if Breeze you know, gets COVID for a couple 540 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 1: of weeks or something. So it's really hard to make 541 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 1: the case. But if you're going to, you have to 542 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,719 Speaker 1: say Falcons because you need a I mean, the Panthers 543 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: are just a disaster. They're changing coaches and schemes on 544 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,919 Speaker 1: both sides. They have a first year quarterback, they have 545 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 1: ten to twelve new starters. This is not what you 546 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: want to be doing this year without preseason and limited prep. 547 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 1: So if you're gonna make the case, it's for the Falcons. 548 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: But it's tough because the Saints are so solt and 549 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 1: FQB depth. The Saints and the Bucks have a combined 550 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 1: implied odd probability according to the the Oazit Draft Kings 551 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 1: sports Book UH to win this division. That's way too high, 552 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,359 Speaker 1: So that right there is a reason to look else where, 553 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,199 Speaker 1: And I do agree with Stuck. The Falcons have to 554 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: be that team because Matt Ryan he can have those 555 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,639 Speaker 1: high upside years. Um, he's proven it in the past. 556 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,119 Speaker 1: You know another you know another year back to get 557 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 1: acclimated with Dirt Cutter when his you know, his formal 558 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. The Falcon schedule, it's tough. I mean you 559 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 1: have Seattle, Dallas, you know, the Bears, pack, the Saints 560 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,120 Speaker 1: a couple of times, obviously, the Bucks a couple of times, 561 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 1: you play the Chiefs. What can you get Denver in Atlanta? 562 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 1: So you don't have to go to Denver Um, but 563 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: you're going to you know you're gonna play the Chargers 564 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: is another kind of pesky team with a good defense. 565 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 1: The Falcons are actually one of my favorite wind total 566 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,040 Speaker 1: underbets at seven and a half. So it's tough for 567 00:27:58,040 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: me to say go bet them at at eton one 568 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: doing the division, I would I would just take the 569 00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 1: Bucks if I'm forced to pick a team. Um, just 570 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,640 Speaker 1: because I think that it really is a two team race. 571 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 1: I think the odds are inflated for the Saints and 572 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: the Bucks. Saints minus one thirty the Bucks plus one fifty. 573 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,159 Speaker 1: But um, the Bucks. That's a chance where there's a 574 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 1: Saints fifty seven percent. I don't think there's that wide 575 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,919 Speaker 1: of a gap. I think the Bucks are still, you know, 576 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: all things being considered, UM, a lot closer to the 577 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 1: Saints than that. Their defense was top five in d 578 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 1: v o A last year. I still think it's on 579 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,200 Speaker 1: the way up. Uh. And I think that a lot 580 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 1: of Tim Brady's issues last year had to do with 581 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 1: the lack of separation for the New England pass catchers, 582 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,400 Speaker 1: the reports at the camp Nikio Harry still not getting separation, 583 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 1: Julian Edelman. You know, thirty three last year not a 584 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: separation type. Brady read the Weegn throwaways. He won't have 585 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,960 Speaker 1: to do that this year with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, uh, 586 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 1: Rob Gronkowski, O J. Howard and those guys. So I 587 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 1: think it's the Bucks are nothing, but you know, the 588 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 1: pay if there's they're interesting. I think you're probably a 589 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 1: better off betting than week to week. But just remember 590 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 1: Teddy Bridge order twenty seven all time against the spread 591 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 1: as a starting quarterback, so they could beat expectations. I 592 00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,720 Speaker 1: don't know what that means or what that translates to, 593 00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 1: but just keep that in mind. What I love about 594 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: this right now is Milman is going all in on 595 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 1: the Bears at the longest odds with his number one pick, 596 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 1: whereas Raybon goes in with the Seahawks a a kind 597 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: of chalky ish pick, but you're getting decent number at 598 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 1: plus two eighty and then they're Stucky Stuck. He's doing this, Stuck, 599 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 1: He's like this square. Stucky's so square. You know why, 600 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 1: because Stucky is going with the Cowboys that mine is 601 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 1: one ten to win the NFC East. Do don't even 602 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 1: try to defend yourself, Stucky. We're moving on before we 603 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 1: get to the next segment. Don't forget the phrase that pays. 604 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: At the end of the show, we're going to announce 605 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 1: the winner of the phrase the pays. And if you 606 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,480 Speaker 1: want to win a free action network, Coody, I need 607 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 1: a six pack. Use it in your review in honor 608 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 1: of Raybond and Stucky in their award winning Action Network 609 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: NFL pod. If we randomly choose you, you in an 610 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 1: Action network, Houldie, That's what I know. It's time to 611 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 1: do another thing, another thing. Let's do our conference picks. 612 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:24,360 Speaker 1: And this year, with so much uncertainty, it's hard for, Like, 613 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:26,120 Speaker 1: I don't want to lay out a lot of money 614 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: on futures, but I do want to try and take 615 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 1: advantage of as I was alluded to before, this seventh 616 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: playoff spot in the expanded playoff format and then potentially 617 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 1: with no fans. So what I've looked for is teams 618 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 1: that could potentially be peeking late in the year, that 619 00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 1: have a capable quarterback or a quarterback that you think 620 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,719 Speaker 1: could end up, you know, taking a leap and getting there. 621 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 1: It's like in the a f C, I look at 622 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: a potential like the Browns, right, and also because they're 623 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 1: a tougher division, that's seven playoff spot is huge for 624 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 1: that extra wild card in a in a pretty weak 625 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,840 Speaker 1: a FC outside of the Ravens and Chiefs. And then 626 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: you know, also the Broncos. If you if you believe 627 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,920 Speaker 1: we're only talking about the NFC, I know, I know, 628 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 1: but I'm leading into my point the Broncos. If you believe, 629 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 1: in no wonder every podcast Stucky does comes in it 630 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 1: like two hours long. Well listen, I'm just giving you 631 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 1: my logic because I like the s C features more 632 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,239 Speaker 1: in the NSC anyway, But if you're looking in the 633 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: NFC again, it would be the Lions, but I think 634 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 1: better than that is the Cardinals right for two longer shots, 635 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 1: and I don't really like investing anything under ten to one. 636 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 1: I hate Cliff Kingsbury with a passion, but Kyler Mary 637 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,760 Speaker 1: I believe in if you think he takes his next step, 638 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 1: they get better in the red zone that they added 639 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:50,400 Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins. The defense last year was dreadful, but I 640 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 1: mean Patrick Peterson, you're without both your corners for most 641 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 1: of the year. You know, Byron Murphy got thrown into 642 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 1: the Wolves. He has a lot more experience. Now at corner, 643 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,800 Speaker 1: you add Isaiah Simmons or they're starting it inside linebacker. 644 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,600 Speaker 1: They added some other pieces of linebacker which I think 645 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 1: will help that defense. So a team that I think 646 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 1: can get to like eight and eight, nine and seven, 647 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 1: and then you have a quarterback like Kyler Murray improving 648 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 1: as they get into the playoffs. I think that's the 649 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 1: team I would look for from a futures perspective. In 650 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 1: the unfctate's treading on your Kyler Murray territory. Yeah, I'm 651 00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 1: proud of you, Stuck, I'm not quite there with the Cardinals. 652 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 1: I try to find a mix of value. And I 653 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,360 Speaker 1: do agree you're generally looking for you know, you don't 654 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,080 Speaker 1: want like five to one odds or something. But I 655 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 1: also try to kind of look at it from the 656 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 1: perspective of, um, you know, we do have some proven 657 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 1: teams and some proven quarterbacks in this conference, and I 658 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 1: think it's gonna come down to a few teams, and um, 659 00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: that leads me back to the one that I see 660 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 1: it the best value at. It was the same one 661 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:56,400 Speaker 1: I see the best value at to win their division. 662 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 1: In that Seattle they are plus ten fifty at draft kings, 663 00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 1: so it's a little better than ten to one. That 664 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 1: implies a nine percent chance of them to win the NFC. 665 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 1: Guess what they've wonted Russell Wilson seasons as a pro. 666 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 1: They've averaged ten point seven five wins per year with Russ. Again, 667 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 1: this is just a high floor team that because of 668 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 1: Russ and because of the Adams edition, also has a 669 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 1: high ceiling. And I think one of the best things 670 00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 1: about taking Seattle or a team from the NFC West 671 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 1: in general. So you know, I don't hate the Cardinals. 672 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 1: I think the Niners still have a chance to just overvalue. 673 00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,640 Speaker 1: But and Rams you know, have a chance as well. 674 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 1: But the great thing about taking a team from the 675 00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 1: NFC West like Seattle is that they're gonna be battle tested. 676 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: Like if they get to a point where they're in position, 677 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,560 Speaker 1: which they do every year, they're winning team every year. 678 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,000 Speaker 1: They're gonna have played the Niners twice, They're gonna have 679 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,320 Speaker 1: played the Cardinals twice. They're gonna have played the Rams twice. Um. 680 00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,600 Speaker 1: So you look across the NFC and you're really now 681 00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 1: talking about the Saints and the Bucks. Is like the 682 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,920 Speaker 1: teams that you would worry about with Seattle and uh, 683 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 1: you know, Russell Wilson is one of those two quarterbacks 684 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,160 Speaker 1: that you know, when you're in the fourth quarter, it's 685 00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 1: Russ or it's Breeze or it's Brady. You're not using 686 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 1: you're not counting Russ out. So I love Seattle at 687 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,880 Speaker 1: at ten to one. Um, that's my favorite pick, my 688 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,879 Speaker 1: number two. Uh, little chalk here, But I'd still look 689 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay. Uh. You know, plus seven fifty implies 690 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 1: about a twelve percent chance. Brady has been to Uh 691 00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 1: you know, he's been a conference champion in forty seven 692 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,439 Speaker 1: percent of his seasons as a New England starter, nine 693 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 1: of nineteen. Uh, those are still interesting odds. I know 694 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,839 Speaker 1: you you know, Bruce Arians isn't Belichick, But you're talking 695 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,279 Speaker 1: about four, you know, a quarter of the of the 696 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 1: odds of which Brady has has done this. So, uh, 697 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 1: you know, I still like I still like those odds. 698 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,480 Speaker 1: But nothing's beating Seattle better than tend to one for me. 699 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,320 Speaker 1: You know what Raybund. Some people would say that Belichick 700 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 1: isn't Bruce Arians. Some people would say that Cam Newton 701 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:51,320 Speaker 1: is no Jared's did him? Alright? So here's what's interesting 702 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 1: about this. I have three teams that I love that 703 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 1: I've already bet Super Bowl futures on that are from 704 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 1: the I've bet four Super Bowl five super Bowl futures, 705 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 1: and three of them are on NFC teams. Are you 706 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,759 Speaker 1: ready if you said the Bears, I'm leaving the podcast. 707 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:11,520 Speaker 1: I've got the Cardinals at fifty one, I've got the 708 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:16,840 Speaker 1: Vikings at five to one. Yeah, and I have the 709 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. It for you, bye, damn well. For all 710 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:24,840 Speaker 1: the reasons I like him to win the Division, I 711 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,920 Speaker 1: also like him to win the Super Bowl. Help me 712 00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 1: decide between these three teams. You guys are the experts. 713 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 1: I'm just a dude, right, So I'll take the Bears 714 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 1: out of it, because clearly stuck he hits them, Vikings 715 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,920 Speaker 1: or Cardinals. Which team do I take to win the conference? 716 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: The Bears? Do you think so? Right? Nick Foles the 717 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:48,040 Speaker 1: only one who won the Super Bowl? Right? Three teams? 718 00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,640 Speaker 1: The Bears are the only one who the quarterback who 719 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 1: has won the Super Bowl. The Bears, to me just 720 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 1: have enough upside where Nick Foles could be dreadful. He 721 00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:57,719 Speaker 1: could also have one even whisky. They went twelve and 722 00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,799 Speaker 1: four and he was dare I say, like good in 723 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,759 Speaker 1: two thousand and eighty. I don't know how, but my 724 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 1: point is the Bears have upside. These things never turned 725 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,239 Speaker 1: out quite how you think. They are kind of in 726 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,760 Speaker 1: this category. Last year, all of a sudden their defense 727 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:15,120 Speaker 1: comes together and you know they get there. So, I mean, 728 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,239 Speaker 1: I stucky, tell me why I'm wrong, But I mean, 729 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,399 Speaker 1: I'll take it's a quarterback driven league, Um, and I'll 730 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,600 Speaker 1: take Kyler Murray. I mean, I'll take Kirk Cousins over 731 00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,000 Speaker 1: any quarter both of them, over any quarterback the Bears have. 732 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:32,680 Speaker 1: And well, I think that the Cardinals actually have better corners. Um, 733 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,400 Speaker 1: the Cardinals are better skill position players, But it just 734 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 1: comes down to a better quarterback UM, and I would 735 00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 1: want to side with Kyler Murray. And I just think 736 00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,960 Speaker 1: the Vikings lost so much on that defense, and it's 737 00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,239 Speaker 1: such a complex defense. The Zimmer's defense is very complex, 738 00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:51,920 Speaker 1: and you're bringing in an entirely new secondary. You lost 739 00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 1: one of your best, your best player up front. You 740 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:56,800 Speaker 1: still have probably the best safety duo in the NFL 741 00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:01,040 Speaker 1: and a great linebacker corps, but pretty in all new corners. 742 00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 1: Losing Griffin upfront, I mean it's it's a lot with 743 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,480 Speaker 1: a no preseason, shortened prep, and then you know you 744 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,520 Speaker 1: have to find someone that replaced DIGSI relying on a 745 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,400 Speaker 1: rookie to do that in the shorten prep. So I 746 00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 1: think the Cardinals actually have the highest upside and the 747 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,280 Speaker 1: best odds UM and you're probably getting the best quarterback 748 00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:21,000 Speaker 1: with the best with the best odds on top of that, 749 00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,239 Speaker 1: but not the one who's won a Super Bowl. I 750 00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:28,600 Speaker 1: mean Trent delfor Trent Deelfer won a Super Bowl. For 751 00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,920 Speaker 1: those tickets cash for Trent. This is a different league 752 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:37,759 Speaker 1: that Eagles super Bowl is such a fluke um, but 753 00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,680 Speaker 1: it cash this is you need. But basically that's how 754 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,719 Speaker 1: eliminate you. I need a quarterback that I can see 755 00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:52,400 Speaker 1: winning a Super Bowl. Um, in order to ever consider 756 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:58,320 Speaker 1: placing a future on an NFL team in today's league, stuck. 757 00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,000 Speaker 1: I want to summer guys our conference picks because those 758 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,480 Speaker 1: are also our Super Bowl picks from the NFC. This 759 00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:06,960 Speaker 1: is only NFC, but I feel like we're gonna have 760 00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,520 Speaker 1: to do af C now. Um, I've already forgotten who 761 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,560 Speaker 1: your pick was for the conference in the NFC. Well, 762 00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:19,240 Speaker 1: I think that if you're looking for long shots, it's 763 00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,560 Speaker 1: like I said before, it's the Lions, the Cardinals, or 764 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:24,839 Speaker 1: maybe the Falcons. And the reason, the fact, the fact 765 00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,600 Speaker 1: that just a value because the Bucks. There's so much 766 00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,160 Speaker 1: love for the Bucks and Saints. Right, So the number 767 00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 1: on the Falcons with a quarterback who's been to the 768 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,279 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, with that capable of an offense, if the 769 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:38,680 Speaker 1: defense comes together, they have upside. But um, I think 770 00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:40,399 Speaker 1: if you're asking me who I think wins the NFC 771 00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,160 Speaker 1: this year, um, I think the NFC Championship is gonna 772 00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:44,719 Speaker 1: be and it's so chalky, but it's gonna be New 773 00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:49,040 Speaker 1: Orleans and Dallas. Um, And I just love New Orleans. 774 00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:51,440 Speaker 1: They have so much depth too, and that's so important 775 00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,279 Speaker 1: this year in particular this team. I mean, they're they're 776 00:38:54,320 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 1: they're defensive interior depth, their edge rushing depth is ridiculous. Um. 777 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,239 Speaker 1: You know, then obviously have quarterback depth two so you 778 00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:06,279 Speaker 1: can survive a quarterback injury. So I think that it's 779 00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,920 Speaker 1: the Saints and the Cowboys and then say it's very chalky, 780 00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 1: But I think that it's the top heavy year. But 781 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,640 Speaker 1: if you want to take a shot, I think you're 782 00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,640 Speaker 1: depending on who you like, it's either Falcons, Lions, or Cardinals. 783 00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,919 Speaker 1: All three have quarterbacks that are capable enough of going 784 00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:20,279 Speaker 1: on a run if they get to the playoffs. In 785 00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:24,200 Speaker 1: my opinion, fascast forward fast forward to like either week 786 00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:28,440 Speaker 1: like seventh, eighteen or nineteen the NFC while the divisional 787 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,120 Speaker 1: round of the Championship round, Stuck and I are gonna 788 00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,680 Speaker 1: be tied, Chad, you know, with our six pack picks, 789 00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:36,879 Speaker 1: and Stuck is gonna pick the Saints and I'm gonna 790 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,719 Speaker 1: pick the opponent on the money line, and the referees 791 00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:42,440 Speaker 1: are gonna or their defense is gonna bail me out, 792 00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,120 Speaker 1: and the Saints are gonna break everybody's heart again. Because 793 00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,560 Speaker 1: the NFL wouldn't be right, if that, if that didn't 794 00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:49,920 Speaker 1: happen to the things, there is no doubt in my mind, 795 00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,440 Speaker 1: uh that it's not going to be the Saints, which 796 00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,359 Speaker 1: is why as I summarize, because you got burnt by 797 00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:58,920 Speaker 1: them before you love with them, I've been burnt badly 798 00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,560 Speaker 1: and uh, you know, fool me once, shaman, Shame on you. 799 00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:07,319 Speaker 1: Um I'm gonna summarize. Our three picks to win the 800 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,239 Speaker 1: conference are, which which we also believe will be our 801 00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,959 Speaker 1: three picks from the NFC to win the Super Bowl. Okay, 802 00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:17,520 Speaker 1: so Stucky is taking the Cardinals, Raybon is taking the Seahawks, 803 00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:21,440 Speaker 1: and Chad is taking the Bears. There, there we go. 804 00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,960 Speaker 1: That's picks to win. That's best betting value. Right, Yeah, 805 00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:26,279 Speaker 1: so you might want to give the odds. So the 806 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,120 Speaker 1: Skiots are plus ten fifty to win the NFC title, 807 00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears are twenty to one, and you're going 808 00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:37,040 Speaker 1: a lion stuck or Cardinals car Cardinals, Cardinals are one 809 00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,160 Speaker 1: to win the NFC chip. And then you just divide 810 00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,080 Speaker 1: those in half. I mean, you multiply those by two, 811 00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,120 Speaker 1: and those are the Super Bowl ots. I love this, 812 00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:46,279 Speaker 1: I love this game. This is gonna be exciting. We're 813 00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,839 Speaker 1: gonna get to look back on this in many many months. 814 00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,239 Speaker 1: Knock on wood that we get through the whole freaking season, right, 815 00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,080 Speaker 1: Raybon and Stucky, thank you for coming on and joining. 816 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,840 Speaker 1: You guys are champions who have an award winning podcast 817 00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,359 Speaker 1: called the Action Network Podcast. You host it. It comes 818 00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,360 Speaker 1: out on Thursday is during the season. You have a 819 00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:04,120 Speaker 1: segment called the six pack where you make your best picks. 820 00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,360 Speaker 1: And that is appropriate because we are doing another phrase 821 00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:09,799 Speaker 1: to pay his contest same practice, go great and review 822 00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:11,959 Speaker 1: of the podcast using the phrase I need a six 823 00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,080 Speaker 1: pack in honor of my friends ray About and Stucky 824 00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,600 Speaker 1: segment on their Action Network NFL pod use the phrase 825 00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:19,520 Speaker 1: we will randomly choose the winner to get a free 826 00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:24,120 Speaker 1: Action Network couldy and the winner the winner from two 827 00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:26,239 Speaker 1: weeks ago when the winning phrase was I feel for 828 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,800 Speaker 1: Stucky and Colin. We had loads of loads of reviews. 829 00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,879 Speaker 1: Thank you for that, and the winner winning an Action 830 00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:37,239 Speaker 1: Network COULDI is Ivan Trey Zach. Here's some of what 831 00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:40,040 Speaker 1: he said, Stuck, you'll appreciate this. I feel for Colin 832 00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,000 Speaker 1: and Stucky getting it out of the way right there. 833 00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,200 Speaker 1: They're the best in the college football gambling biz. They 834 00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,680 Speaker 1: brought the world FC yes or no. They brought us 835 00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,759 Speaker 1: midweek madness and action and fund Belt betting. They brought 836 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,560 Speaker 1: us a weekly check in with Arkansas football. But even 837 00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,160 Speaker 1: if college football can only offer us a bastard eyed 838 00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,839 Speaker 1: version of itself the season, I know they'll be there 839 00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:01,880 Speaker 1: for all of us in the gambling community on the 840 00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:06,239 Speaker 1: incredible Favorites podcast, on the award winning Action Network podcast, 841 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:10,320 Speaker 1: and on the award winning Action Network app, but more importantly, 842 00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:14,080 Speaker 1: in our hearts. Yvon Tres act like that is a 843 00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:18,280 Speaker 1: lovely thing to say about the podcast about Action Network, 844 00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:23,320 Speaker 1: about you, stuck about Colin, I love you? He didn't say. 845 00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,400 Speaker 1: Bo nixt season is in full effect. Bo nixt season 846 00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:31,520 Speaker 1: in full effect. That will be used a lot on 847 00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,239 Speaker 1: our podcast, So if you haven't checked it out, make 848 00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,640 Speaker 1: sure you do. For the maybe one or two weeks, 849 00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,160 Speaker 1: we get college football, hopefully all all of them. We 850 00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,360 Speaker 1: got a big collegue football preview coming up in the 851 00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:44,600 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. We got Raybond talking about fantasy. We 852 00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,080 Speaker 1: got Ray Bond and stuff you're talking about NFL. We 853 00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:51,279 Speaker 1: are loaded. Go check out the Favorites, rate review, subscribe, 854 00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,839 Speaker 1: listen to it on Apple podcast, Spotify, wherever you get 855 00:42:53,840 --> 00:43:00,160 Speaker 1: the podcasts. Until next time, I love you, ye