WEBVTT - Week 11 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 131) 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:17.200 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:19.560 to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:22.000 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty eight. 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:24.160 This week eleven, it is time to talk about our 0:00:24.239 --> 0:00:26.960 best bets for the weekend of the NFL. With me 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:30.040 to do that, here is Mike Randall from the Action Network. 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:33.879 Find him on Twitter at randal rant Mike. Thanks for 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:35.120 joining me today. How you doing. 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:39.080 I appreciate you having me. It's exciting. We got NFL football, 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:42.639 Fantasy football is hitting the playoffs, lines are getting sharper, Dan, 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:45.680 we got to de goo deep in this analyzation, but 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:47.800 there are some advantage here we're going to talk about. 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:49.159 Really excited to join you. 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:51.639 You know, I got your picks beforehand, as I as 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:53.960 I always tell our audience, and I was annoyed at 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:55.840 you because you took a few games that I wanted. 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:57.640 But it's fine. It's good that we're on the same side, 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:00.120 although I am on the different side of one of you. 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:02.800 I We're going to go through last week very briefly 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:04.760 with our guests. But this was annoying because it was 0:01:04.760 --> 0:01:06.479 my first really bad week where I went owing three. 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:09.720 The annoying part is Mike is again on the betting 0:01:09.760 --> 0:01:12.360 pros app which you know, I know you use obviously 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:14.560 run the experts. We have a leader board and we 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:18.400 sort of went and I was eight and three against 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:20.399 the spread last week, and unfortunately the ones I gave 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:22.959 out are the losers here. Sorry, I apologize you. Though 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:26.319 Good Star were second. You had a perfect week. There 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:28.360 only four picks, but four and O what were you 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:30.200 on last week? Out of curiousity? Do you remember the 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:31.560 picks that you got right? Oh? 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:34.840 Yeah, you know it was New England right away. I 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.639 liked Belichick at home. Cleveland just seemed to be limping 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:39.760 in and everyone was kind of over the top. There. 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:43.720 There were so many different games that I felt were interesting. 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:46.240 The Cowboy game, it was just a gut feel. You know, 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:49.080 Atlanta had played well and I thought the Cowboys are 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:50.680 really good. We're going to talk about them later. Were 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.320 Kansas City. So laying the points to me was no problem. 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:54.720 It was a good week in It was one of 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:57.000 those no sweats right away. The one that was a 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:59.720 little close, which I was happy about was the Saints. Yeah, 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:01.960 got down to two and a half and you know, 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.160 they limped to the finish line. But how many times 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.040 have we lost one at the end, So I'll take 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:07.960 it there. It was a perfect week, you know, onto 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:09.120 this week, but yeah, it was fun. 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.840 I was certainly rooting for the Saints to not convert 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:14.680 the point I would just take. I would take the 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:16.080 two and a half, right, Yeah, I was on that 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.560 as well. Tough game here. Maybe we'll talk about the 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:20.960 Titans a little bit later, but before we get into it, 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:22.120 you know, you guys know what we're gonna do. We're 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:23.560 gonna give our three best bets. We'll run through all 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:25.200 the spreads just in case. We have a lien, which 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:27.160 I've talked to Mike a little bit. We both have 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:28.840 a lien in a certain game that neither one of 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:31.320 us has picked. But let me remind you first about 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:34.919 the latest offer from bet MGM bet new customers using 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:37.640 the code Juice one hundred. If you bet on any 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.280 NFL game, any team you bet ten dollars to win 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:42.720 two hundred dollars. It's a team you bet on scores 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:45.519 a touchdown, simple as that that's almost certainly going to 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:48.720 happen again. Code Juice one hundred that is available in 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:54.360 New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:57.760 d C, Arizona, and Wyoming. So I will quickly run 0:02:57.800 --> 0:02:59.960 through last week. As I said, our guest Ben Steve 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:02.399 had the Saints get in two and a half, which 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:04.680 is again I said last week another pick that I 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:06.240 liked and I was on as well. He also hit 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:10.120 on the Bills and the Jets over forty eight points. 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:12.680 So his third one was a player prop that he 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:15.880 really liked, which was Derek Carr over pass attempts. No, 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:17.880 the line wasn't actually out when we did it, so 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:20.160 I basically had him give me the line where he 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:21.880 would go. He said if it was over thirty five 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.040 and a half, he wouldn't take it, but he would 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:26.040 take it anything under. The line turned out to be 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:27.480 thirty six and a half, so I'm going to give 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:29.480 him pass. Even though went under it was only thirty 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:31.840 five he would have technically missed, but he did say, 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:33.440 don't bet it if it was over thirty five and 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:35.320 a half, So I'm going to give him a two 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:37.920 to zero and whatever, And I went out in three. 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:39.480 I was on the other side of that Patriots game. 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:40.960 I really thought the Browns were going to be able 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:43.960 to take care of business there. I have not had 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:45.920 a good beat on the Patriots this year. I fully 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:48.800 admit that, alside the under in that game, which the 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:51.200 Patriots basically took care of themselves. And I missed on 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:53.560 the Seahawks getting three and a half from the Packers. 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:56.600 It's funny because the defense sort of played and Rogers 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:58.880 was a little rusty. I just don't think I factored 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:00.840 in just quite how rough the russ would have been. 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.360 So that's bad. We're gonna bounce back this week sixteen 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.760 and fourteen now in the season. All right, Mike, we 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:07.320 can go with you. I will give out the betting 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:09.400 pros consensus lines. Again a betting pros, we give out 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.880 the lines from basically every single book, so you can 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:14.200 see generally where you want to attack. I always have 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:16.120 to bet DraftKings, so that's where I have in New Hampshire. 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:18.320 But you can bet obviously whatever your book is. But 0:04:18.360 --> 0:04:20.839 there is a consensus line based on all of the books. 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:23.600 And again I mentioned the app that Mike and I 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:25.560 you know, had good weeks last week. Mike was the 0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:30.680 second most accurate expert here against the spread in terms 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:32.520 of well, obviously it was perfect, but in units. In 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:35.680 terms of units one I was eleventh. So you can 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:37.599 make your own pixel also on the betting pros app 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:40.440 and you can see where you stand. All right, Mike, 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:42.440 begin your first pick, sir. 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:45.760 I'm going to start right off the bat with the 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:48.760 one that I've targeted almost all year, dan, and that's 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:52.039 the Vikings. I believe getting two and a half. I 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:54.599 love the Vikings in this spot. They are third in 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:57.800 past defense d DVOA and they were great against the 0:04:57.920 --> 0:05:00.560 Chargers on the road. That was a sharp game last week. 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:04.039 People love the Vikings and really as Sharps did, but 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:07.240 the public like the Chargers even though they have injuries, 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:10.760 even though Danielle Hunter is out. Last week two sacks, interception, 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.640 six QB hits against a very good offensive line on 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:17.160 the Chargers and an explosive passing attack. Vikings are five 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:19.800 to three and one last nine games against Green Bay, 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:22.120 including last year when they won twenty eight to twenty 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:26.800 two at Green Bay. In that game, Rogers DeVante Adams 0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:31.640 three touchdowns together. Packers still lost no Aaron Jones this 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:34.320 week and the Packers defense has been playing better, but 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:37.279 they do have injuries, Zadaris Smith's been out of course, 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:41.040 jyr Alexander's on ir no Merciless and then of course 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:43.960 on offense no Aaron Jones, Robert Tunyan, which kills them 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:46.800 in the red zone. Vikings may even get better in 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:49.600 their secondary. Their secondary has been playing well, but they 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:53.760 had injuries. Patrick Peterson should be back, Harrison Smith. Public's 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:55.680 gonna hammer green Bay like they always do with the 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:58.040 Packers and the Cowboys. I like it at two and 0:05:58.080 --> 0:06:00.200 a half. There's a way to get to three. I would. 0:06:00.640 --> 0:06:03.599 I like this Vikings offense, which has been able to 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.799 put up points. Last year, Dalvin Cook hammered the Packers 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.400 in Green Bay. That's how they won that game. Right now, 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:11.640 you're looking at the majority of bets end money on 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:14.520 the Packers, So of course, being a contrarian always good 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.520 in the betting world. I want the Vikings. I may 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:19.919 invested in them. I had them as a future to 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.560 win the division at plus three point fifty. Can they 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:24.600 get there? It seems like they can't, but if they 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:26.960 sweep the Packers, they'd be real close. I think they 0:06:27.040 --> 0:06:30.039 start here like the Vikings as a home underdog here 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.479 getting a couple points against Rogers and the Packers. Rogers 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:35.880 still coming out of COVID, not sure how he's gonna be, 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:37.120 and he's missing a lot of weapons. 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:40.360 Yeah, this is an interesting one, Mike, because I do 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:44.240 think that these teams really, when you just take a 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:46.479 step back and you take a look, they're very even, 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:50.400 like they're both equal teams essentially. I know, obviously the 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:53.240 Records eight and two, the Vikings four and five, but 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:56.760 the Vikings, man, like, you know, they show up some 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:58.520 of these games and they look like they might be 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:00.680 one of the best teams in football. Games are like, 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:02.640 oh god, I can't even I can't even watch this 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.520 at this point. This is obviously a divisional game. It's 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:07.960 home for the Viking, so it's gonna be good. What's 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:09.760 interesting is you make the good point of the fact 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:12.360 that the public is hitting the Packers in this game, 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:15.280 and the line is moving in the other direction right 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:17.320 like the line is slowly coming down. There's a lot 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:18.920 of two's out there. There are some one and a 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.760 half out there right now, so it's moving in the 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:24.360 other direction, which shows you sort of how the books 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:26.440 and how the sharps generally think of it. I'm with 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:28.560 you in this pick. It was one of the ones, Mike, 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.120 when you picked it, I said it was on my list, right, 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:33.480 it was on my list of potentials. I don't know 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:36.000 if I could have done it, mainly just because I've 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:38.720 seen Kirk Cousins in the spot too many times where 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:41.320 it's like, this is your spot, man, this should be it, 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:43.640 this is the game, and he doesn't come through. I 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:46.520 do think that the loss of Aaron Jones is bigger 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:49.720 than people are giving it credit for, right because of 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:52.280 the fact that aj Dillon looks so good as a 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:55.480 running back, but Dylan is not the same caliber of 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:58.520 blocker in terms of pass protection or anything like that. 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:01.320 He's not the same as a pass catch, although he's 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:03.360 been more involved this whole year than I expected him 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:04.800 to be in that you know at all, just give 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:06.480 them what we saw in college. But it's a big 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.440 loss here for it, and as the Vikings defense does 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:12.840 get healthier, as they gel a little more, I think 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:14.440 you're on the right side. I don't know what would 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:15.640 have been one of my picks, but I think you're 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:16.280 on the right side. 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:18.880 So and Dan, how about the fact that, remember, Minnesota 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:20.720 should have beat Arizona earlier in the year. They did 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:23.160 s Field go on the road and then both teams 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:26.160 have a common opponent against the Bengals. Vikings lost Week 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.760 one on a last second field goal by the Bengals. 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:30.560 Packers should have lost at the Bengals, but no one 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:32.800 can make a field goal in overtime for the longest time. So, 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:35.640 like you said, I think they're very very close teams. 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:37.720 Vikings home. Give me a couple points, I'll take it. 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:39.880 Yeah, the Vikings really should be six and three. I 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:41.760 mean if they played sort of where they are and 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:44.600 they can win any game, but they can also come 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:46.760 out and you can be like, what is happening right, 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:49.200 Like what is this game? So we'll have to see, 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:51.320 but yeah, this is a pretty evenly matched game. You 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:54.240 got a home team getting some points. I'm definitely on 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:56.160 the same side. It's not one of my picks though, 0:08:56.440 --> 0:08:58.560 and I haven't bet it, but I would go that way. 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:00.800 All right, Mike, Let's start with the game that you 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:04.240 and I talked about that found interesting here, and it's 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:07.160 the quote unquote sharp Side as we had talked about, 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:10.520 and it's the Raiders plus one at home against the Bengals. 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:12.120 I talked about this on Monday. We do the look 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:15.280 Ahead Lines podcast, which I like the spot for the Raiders. 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:17.839 Our guests liked it for the Bengals, but I liked 0:09:17.840 --> 0:09:19.839 it for the Raiders, then I like it for now. 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:21.599 Now I don't love the Raiders. Is much more of 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:24.760 a fade of the Bengals, but I do think that's 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:27.480 a pretty decent spot for them here they've got two 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:29.960 bad losses in a row, right, Like, obviously you've got 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:32.160 the Giants and they're embarrassed by the Chiefs. But this 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.640 is this is basically it is, you got to take 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:36.200 a stand right now if you're the Raiders and you 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:39.480 have any sort of semblance of playoff hopes or anything 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:41.760 like that to the next three games are the Chiefs 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.080 and the Cowboys. Both of those games are on the road, 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:46.600 So you lose this one, your season might as well 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:49.280 just basically be over. So I think you're gonna get 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:51.280 a spurited effort here on both sides of the ball. 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:54.280 It's a home game, crowd's going to be into it, 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:56.280 so that's where it is. But this is much more 0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:58.520 of a fade of the Bengals. Like people love the Bengals. 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:01.240 Early on, it was very exciting, got the young kids here, 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:04.400 with Jamar Chase amazing. Joe Burrow has looked great for 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:06.800 the most part, as he came back earlier, sort of 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:09.640 rounded into formal little earlier than I expected. But they 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:12.880 are twenty fifth in overall DVOA. Like I mean, DVA 0:10:12.960 --> 0:10:15.360 is not everything, but that sort of gives you a 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:18.240 good sense of what they actually are as a team. 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:21.480 They're coming off losses to the Jets and the Browns, 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:23.360 and I know they're coming off of bye, but the 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:25.679 buy hasn't really met that much when you're looking at 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.880 teams covering or not covering against spread here off the 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:31.800 by this year in particular, and I really don't trust 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.959 Zach Taylor on the road. It's a young team, it's 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:37.320 in Las Vegas. That always makes me a little nervous 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:40.040 for the Raiders offense. The los anderw Ruggs is big, 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.200 but I do think I mean, Deshaun Jackson obviously had 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:44.400 that big fumble, but he played nine snaps last week. 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:46.280 He's gonna play a little bit more this week. I 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:48.280 think that's going to be able to help them do 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:50.360 what they need to do, which is stretch the field 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:52.240 a lot more to open up the underneath routes for 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:55.840 hunter renfro for Darren Waller. We saw Brian Edwards get 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:58.360 a little more involved, and the loss of alec Engold 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:01.000 is bad. I mean, he's he's an important part. Actually, 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.199 they're running in. Their running game has struggled, but it's 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:04.959 just a bounce back spot. And there are two things 0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:06.880 when I looked at sort of what are we going 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:09.080 to see here from the defense, which isn't isn't that 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:12.480 great or anything like that, versus the Bengals offense again, 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:15.640 which I just I never feel like it's really firing 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:18.400 on all cylinders. The first thing that I saw is 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:21.160 that the Raiders have a very good pass rush. Okay, 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:23.200 now they didn't get any sacks against Patrick Mahomes, but 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:24.559 this was just that was just the spot where I 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:26.360 think the Chiefs were like, Okay, we've got it. Now, 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.080 we're going to do a lot of quick players. We're 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.360 going to get it out. The Raiders ranked ninth in 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.200 pressure rate on the year. That's a twenty six percent, 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:35.080 and again they just had the Chiefs where they didn't 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:37.000 get a lot of pressure. But they do that despite 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:38.800 the fact that they blitz at the lowest clip in 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:40.880 the league, right thirteen point eight percent. By far the 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:42.800 lowest in the league. They don't blitz, but they do 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:46.319 get pressure with Max Crosby and everything. So the Bengals 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:48.640 give up a ton of sacks. So it's just kind 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:50.120 of a bad matchup when you can get pressure on 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:52.839 any young quarterback here without blitzing. And the second is 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:54.520 that the Raiders, you know, they play a lot of 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:57.280 cover three here, they play a lot of zone. You 0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:00.760 look at how Burrow performs, He's much better against defenses 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:03.520 I play man rather than zone. So I think this 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:05.719 is really just the spot. I mean, I hate to 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:08.080 say too many good things about the Raiders because I'm 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:11.120 not buying the Raiders necessarily, but I'm much more selling 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:13.840 the Bengals, even coming off a buye. I just don't 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:16.520 believe in the team coming into Vegas. I think they struggle. 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:18.520 It's basically a pick them game. I will take the 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.680 home team, So give me the Raiders here getting one. 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:23.840 I know we talked about a little bit earlier, Mike 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:26.319 how you said it's probably the sharp side of it, 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:28.319 but you know, obviously the public probably is gonna be 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:29.959 a little more Oncensey, Right, Yeah. 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:31.960 That's exactly right. And the sharp side last week like 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:33.960 I mentioned, was the Vikings the line. What you're saying, 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:36.160 why is the public one way and the money's going 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:37.880 the other way? This is what you have with the 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.600 Raiders here. Let's not forget Zach Taylor for bet Labs 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.600 four fifteen and one against the spread on the road. Okay, 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:45.320 And you see that tweet he had out the other 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:47.360 day about when he goes he loves to play roulette. 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:49.640 He loves to play roulette. I jokingly put out, give 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:51.760 you the Raiders here. He's a little too focused on gambling. 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.600 But Derek Carr has not typically been a turnover machine. 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.719 He's a very safe quarterback. He's had some bad turnovers. 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.200 I think last week was just spot against the Chiefs 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:03.120 that it got out of hand. But they have played 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:05.240 very well at home, They've competed, and remember against the 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:08.120 Ravens earlier this year. I think the Raiders are a 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.840 better team overall. People are gonna side with the Bengals 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.560 because of the explosive offense, and like you said, Vegas 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:15.840 has adjusted to teams coming off of bye and even 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:18.400 with that adjustment, we're looking at the Raiders here only 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.280 being a one point dog. So I'm with you. I 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:22.400 think it's the sharp side this week Vegas and the 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:23.760 Raiders here against the Bengals. 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:25.840 I don't want to put too much into the young 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.280 team traveling out to Vegas to sort of play, but 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.520 I it does factor in to me. Like you got 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:34.600 a veteran team like Mahomes, fine, like the Chiefs, whatever, 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:36.880 it doesn't really matter, get a young team like this 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:40.240 coming out to Vegas. I don't think it's It's not 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:42.560 like a huge thing, but it certainly is something that 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.320 I think can be distracting a little bit and can 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:48.600 factor in. But again, this spot the Raiders if they 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.320 need this game, like this is their season essentially, and 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:53.120 they're a better team I think than they've showed the 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:54.960 last couple of weeks. So all right, go to your 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:56.200 second pick, Mike, what do you have? 0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:59.640 Give me the Seahawks. I love to fade the knee 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:03.320 jerk reaction Dan. Last week's lost to Green Bay, Russell 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.920 Wilson didn't look good, didn't have touch on the deep ball. Well, 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.120 let's look at this a little deeper. They held the 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.560 Packers with Aaron Rodgers at home to seventeen points. Wilson 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:15.800 had an interception and the end zone really didn't play well. 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.680 The Seahawks defense has actually been improving throughout the year. 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:23.680 Let's remember that Seattle with the twelfth man at home, 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:27.280 which they didn't have last year, always really tough per 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.040 bet Labs, twenty four to twelve and six is what 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:33.520 Pete Carroll is in his career against the spread. Coming 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:36.960 off a loss. Seahawks had a brutal schedule, but they 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:40.400 battled through it. With Geno Smith lost to the Rams, 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.400 that's the game Wilson got hurt. Steelers three point loss. 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.080 That was with Gino. Lost to the Saints by three 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.120 at home. That was with Gino. Kyler Murray is very 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:51.480 up in the air and Dan. When he doesn't run, 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:54.160 he is not the same quarterback and the Cardinals don't 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:56.720 win at the same rate. If he doesn't run for 0:14:56.760 --> 0:15:00.360 at least twenty yards, he averages eight fewer Fantasy points 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:02.320 per game, and in the games that he doesn't hit twenty, 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.320 he usually has hit over his career eight, which means 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.200 when he's limited, he's very, very limited. He is not 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:12.320 a prolific pocket passer. He's best when he's running outside 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.040 of the tackles trying to create on his own. DeAndre 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:18.200 Hopkins has been hurt all season long. They don't have 0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:22.440 Chase Edmonds. Seattle needs this game badly. And look, don't 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:24.680 forget that the Seahawks are still in the playoff race. 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:26.960 They're only three and six. The Panthers are in and 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.440 they're five and five. So you're telling me now after 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:31.920 nine games they're out of the playoff race. They are 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.920 at home, their schedule is getting better. Division games are 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:38.160 always close. If Murray doesn't play, I'm gonna love it. 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.680 Like last week, I grib Carolina right away getting ten 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:42.760 and a half, we heard no Murray. It got down 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.240 to six. In this case, this could easily flip on Sunday. 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:48.920 Arizona has their by next week. I don't know why 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:51.680 you'd rush Murray back, and if it's still uncertain at 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:54.120 this point, he's probably not healthy, which in his career 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:57.040 means he hasn't always played well. I love Seattle as 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.120 a home dog here getting two and a half, and 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:01.760 I think Russ starts to cook again because the Seahawks 0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:03.040 need to make a playoff push. 0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:05.320 Yeah, so there are a couple of things. One is, 0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:07.120 just like you said, it is moving a little bit 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.240 to two now, so it's bouncing back and forth between 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:10.760 two and two and a half. I think you're on 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:12.840 the right side of this. I do not expect Kyler 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.040 Murray to play. I understand he's back in practice. But 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:18.240 if you are the Cardinals, you have a buy next week, 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:20.720 like you it's just not worth it, Like you have 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:22.960 long term goals here, right, all right, you gotta be 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.280 careful with this. But even if he plays, Mike, as 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:27.600 you said, he is going to be limited. Like there, 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:29.320 he's not coming back in one hundred percent. He's not 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.160 going to run as much. That is a huge, huge 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:35.960 thing for Kyler Murray and we saw last year, so 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:38.520 it's something that is going to affect them. You talked 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:41.440 about the Seahawks. This is talked about a little bit 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:43.560 with the Raiders. This is a last stand a little 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:45.360 bit with the Seahawks, because if you go to three 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:48.680 and seven, then it's tough, right then is really tough. 0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:51.640 But you win this game. You mentioned it. They out Washington, 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:54.120 they have the Texans, they have the Bears, they have 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:57.440 the Lions. They've got a lot of really winnable games here. 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.680 You win this game and suddenly like that's Evans spot, 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:04.439 that's right there for you. I wonder though, and I 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:06.840 was on the Seahawks last week thinking that Wilson would 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:10.199 be okay. I mean, if Wilson plays anything like what 0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:12.560 he played last week, it's gonna be tough for them 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:14.560