Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty eight.
Speaker 1: This week eleven, it is time to talk about our
Speaker 1: best bets for the weekend of the NFL. With me
Speaker 1: to do that, here is Mike Randall from the Action Network.
Speaker 1: Find him on Twitter at randal rant Mike. Thanks for
Speaker 1: joining me today. How you doing.
Speaker 2: I appreciate you having me. It's exciting. We got NFL football,
Speaker 2: Fantasy football is hitting the playoffs, lines are getting sharper, Dan,
Speaker 2: we got to de goo deep in this analyzation, but
Speaker 2: there are some advantage here we're going to talk about.
Speaker 2: Really excited to join you.
Speaker 1: You know, I got your picks beforehand, as I as
Speaker 1: I always tell our audience, and I was annoyed at
Speaker 1: you because you took a few games that I wanted.
Speaker 1: But it's fine. It's good that we're on the same side,
Speaker 1: although I am on the different side of one of you.
Speaker 1: I We're going to go through last week very briefly
Speaker 1: with our guests. But this was annoying because it was
Speaker 1: my first really bad week where I went owing three.
Speaker 1: The annoying part is Mike is again on the betting
Speaker 1: pros app which you know, I know you use obviously
Speaker 1: run the experts. We have a leader board and we
Speaker 1: sort of went and I was eight and three against
Speaker 1: the spread last week, and unfortunately the ones I gave
Speaker 1: out are the losers here. Sorry, I apologize you. Though
Speaker 1: Good Star were second. You had a perfect week. There
Speaker 1: only four picks, but four and O what were you
Speaker 1: on last week? Out of curiousity? Do you remember the
Speaker 1: picks that you got right? Oh?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know it was New England right away. I
Speaker 2: liked Belichick at home. Cleveland just seemed to be limping
Speaker 2: in and everyone was kind of over the top. There.
Speaker 2: There were so many different games that I felt were interesting.
Speaker 2: The Cowboy game, it was just a gut feel. You know,
Speaker 2: Atlanta had played well and I thought the Cowboys are
Speaker 2: really good. We're going to talk about them later. Were
Speaker 2: Kansas City. So laying the points to me was no problem.
Speaker 2: It was a good week in It was one of
Speaker 2: those no sweats right away. The one that was a
Speaker 2: little close, which I was happy about was the Saints. Yeah,
Speaker 2: got down to two and a half and you know,
Speaker 2: they limped to the finish line. But how many times
Speaker 2: have we lost one at the end, So I'll take
Speaker 2: it there. It was a perfect week, you know, onto
Speaker 2: this week, but yeah, it was fun.
Speaker 1: I was certainly rooting for the Saints to not convert
Speaker 1: the point I would just take. I would take the
Speaker 1: two and a half, right, Yeah, I was on that
Speaker 1: as well. Tough game here. Maybe we'll talk about the
Speaker 1: Titans a little bit later, but before we get into it,
Speaker 1: you know, you guys know what we're gonna do. We're
Speaker 1: gonna give our three best bets. We'll run through all
Speaker 1: the spreads just in case. We have a lien, which
Speaker 1: I've talked to Mike a little bit. We both have
Speaker 1: a lien in a certain game that neither one of
Speaker 1: us has picked. But let me remind you first about
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Speaker 1: d C, Arizona, and Wyoming. So I will quickly run
Speaker 1: through last week. As I said, our guest Ben Steve
Speaker 1: had the Saints get in two and a half, which
Speaker 1: is again I said last week another pick that I
Speaker 1: liked and I was on as well. He also hit
Speaker 1: on the Bills and the Jets over forty eight points.
Speaker 1: So his third one was a player prop that he
Speaker 1: really liked, which was Derek Carr over pass attempts. No,
Speaker 1: the line wasn't actually out when we did it, so
Speaker 1: I basically had him give me the line where he
Speaker 1: would go. He said if it was over thirty five
Speaker 1: and a half, he wouldn't take it, but he would
Speaker 1: take it anything under. The line turned out to be
Speaker 1: thirty six and a half, so I'm going to give
Speaker 1: him pass. Even though went under it was only thirty
Speaker 1: five he would have technically missed, but he did say,
Speaker 1: don't bet it if it was over thirty five and
Speaker 1: a half, So I'm going to give him a two
Speaker 1: to zero and whatever, And I went out in three.
Speaker 1: I was on the other side of that Patriots game.
Speaker 1: I really thought the Browns were going to be able
Speaker 1: to take care of business there. I have not had
Speaker 1: a good beat on the Patriots this year. I fully
Speaker 1: admit that, alside the under in that game, which the
Speaker 1: Patriots basically took care of themselves. And I missed on
Speaker 1: the Seahawks getting three and a half from the Packers.
Speaker 1: It's funny because the defense sort of played and Rogers
Speaker 1: was a little rusty. I just don't think I factored
Speaker 1: in just quite how rough the russ would have been.
Speaker 1: So that's bad. We're gonna bounce back this week sixteen
Speaker 1: and fourteen now in the season. All right, Mike, we
Speaker 1: can go with you. I will give out the betting
Speaker 1: pros consensus lines. Again a betting pros, we give out
Speaker 1: the lines from basically every single book, so you can
Speaker 1: see generally where you want to attack. I always have
Speaker 1: to bet DraftKings, so that's where I have in New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: But you can bet obviously whatever your book is. But
Speaker 1: there is a consensus line based on all of the books.
Speaker 1: And again I mentioned the app that Mike and I
Speaker 1: you know, had good weeks last week. Mike was the
Speaker 1: second most accurate expert here against the spread in terms
Speaker 1: of well, obviously it was perfect, but in units. In
Speaker 1: terms of units one I was eleventh. So you can
Speaker 1: make your own pixel also on the betting pros app
Speaker 1: and you can see where you stand. All right, Mike,
Speaker 1: begin your first pick, sir.
Speaker 2: I'm going to start right off the bat with the
Speaker 2: one that I've targeted almost all year, dan, and that's
Speaker 2: the Vikings. I believe getting two and a half. I
Speaker 2: love the Vikings in this spot. They are third in
Speaker 2: past defense d DVOA and they were great against the
Speaker 2: Chargers on the road. That was a sharp game last week.
Speaker 2: People love the Vikings and really as Sharps did, but
Speaker 2: the public like the Chargers even though they have injuries,
Speaker 2: even though Danielle Hunter is out. Last week two sacks, interception,
Speaker 2: six QB hits against a very good offensive line on
Speaker 2: the Chargers and an explosive passing attack. Vikings are five
Speaker 2: to three and one last nine games against Green Bay,
Speaker 2: including last year when they won twenty eight to twenty
Speaker 2: two at Green Bay. In that game, Rogers DeVante Adams
Speaker 2: three touchdowns together. Packers still lost no Aaron Jones this
Speaker 2: week and the Packers defense has been playing better, but
Speaker 2: they do have injuries, Zadaris Smith's been out of course,
Speaker 2: jyr Alexander's on ir no Merciless and then of course
Speaker 2: on offense no Aaron Jones, Robert Tunyan, which kills them
Speaker 2: in the red zone. Vikings may even get better in
Speaker 2: their secondary. Their secondary has been playing well, but they
Speaker 2: had injuries. Patrick Peterson should be back, Harrison Smith. Public's
Speaker 2: gonna hammer green Bay like they always do with the
Speaker 2: Packers and the Cowboys. I like it at two and
Speaker 2: a half. There's a way to get to three. I would.
Speaker 2: I like this Vikings offense, which has been able to
Speaker 2: put up points. Last year, Dalvin Cook hammered the Packers
Speaker 2: in Green Bay. That's how they won that game. Right now,
Speaker 2: you're looking at the majority of bets end money on
Speaker 2: the Packers, So of course, being a contrarian always good
Speaker 2: in the betting world. I want the Vikings. I may
Speaker 2: invested in them. I had them as a future to
Speaker 2: win the division at plus three point fifty. Can they
Speaker 2: get there? It seems like they can't, but if they
Speaker 2: sweep the Packers, they'd be real close. I think they
Speaker 2: start here like the Vikings as a home underdog here
Speaker 2: getting a couple points against Rogers and the Packers. Rogers
Speaker 2: still coming out of COVID, not sure how he's gonna be,
Speaker 2: and he's missing a lot of weapons.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is an interesting one, Mike, because I do
Speaker 1: think that these teams really, when you just take a
Speaker 1: step back and you take a look, they're very even,
Speaker 1: like they're both equal teams essentially. I know, obviously the
Speaker 1: Records eight and two, the Vikings four and five, but
Speaker 1: the Vikings, man, like, you know, they show up some
Speaker 1: of these games and they look like they might be
Speaker 1: one of the best teams in football. Games are like,
Speaker 1: oh god, I can't even I can't even watch this
Speaker 1: at this point. This is obviously a divisional game. It's
Speaker 1: home for the Viking, so it's gonna be good. What's
Speaker 1: interesting is you make the good point of the fact
Speaker 1: that the public is hitting the Packers in this game,
Speaker 1: and the line is moving in the other direction right
Speaker 1: like the line is slowly coming down. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of two's out there. There are some one and a
Speaker 1: half out there right now, so it's moving in the
Speaker 1: other direction, which shows you sort of how the books
Speaker 1: and how the sharps generally think of it. I'm with
Speaker 1: you in this pick. It was one of the ones, Mike,
Speaker 1: when you picked it, I said it was on my list, right,
Speaker 1: it was on my list of potentials. I don't know
Speaker 1: if I could have done it, mainly just because I've
Speaker 1: seen Kirk Cousins in the spot too many times where
Speaker 1: it's like, this is your spot, man, this should be it,
Speaker 1: this is the game, and he doesn't come through. I
Speaker 1: do think that the loss of Aaron Jones is bigger
Speaker 1: than people are giving it credit for, right because of
Speaker 1: the fact that aj Dillon looks so good as a
Speaker 1: running back, but Dylan is not the same caliber of
Speaker 1: blocker in terms of pass protection or anything like that.
Speaker 1: He's not the same as a pass catch, although he's
Speaker 1: been more involved this whole year than I expected him
Speaker 1: to be in that you know at all, just give
Speaker 1: them what we saw in college. But it's a big
Speaker 1: loss here for it, and as the Vikings defense does
Speaker 1: get healthier, as they gel a little more, I think
Speaker 1: you're on the right side. I don't know what would
Speaker 1: have been one of my picks, but I think you're
Speaker 1: on the right side.
Speaker 2: So and Dan, how about the fact that, remember, Minnesota
Speaker 2: should have beat Arizona earlier in the year. They did
Speaker 2: s Field go on the road and then both teams
Speaker 2: have a common opponent against the Bengals. Vikings lost Week
Speaker 2: one on a last second field goal by the Bengals.
Speaker 2: Packers should have lost at the Bengals, but no one
Speaker 2: can make a field goal in overtime for the longest time. So,
Speaker 2: like you said, I think they're very very close teams.
Speaker 2: Vikings home. Give me a couple points, I'll take it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Vikings really should be six and three. I
Speaker 1: mean if they played sort of where they are and
Speaker 1: they can win any game, but they can also come
Speaker 1: out and you can be like, what is happening right,
Speaker 1: Like what is this game? So we'll have to see,
Speaker 1: but yeah, this is a pretty evenly matched game. You
Speaker 1: got a home team getting some points. I'm definitely on
Speaker 1: the same side. It's not one of my picks though,
Speaker 1: and I haven't bet it, but I would go that way.
Speaker 1: All right, Mike, Let's start with the game that you
Speaker 1: and I talked about that found interesting here, and it's
Speaker 1: the quote unquote sharp Side as we had talked about,
Speaker 1: and it's the Raiders plus one at home against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: I talked about this on Monday. We do the look
Speaker 1: Ahead Lines podcast, which I like the spot for the Raiders.
Speaker 1: Our guests liked it for the Bengals, but I liked
Speaker 1: it for the Raiders, then I like it for now.
Speaker 1: Now I don't love the Raiders. Is much more of
Speaker 1: a fade of the Bengals, but I do think that's
Speaker 1: a pretty decent spot for them here they've got two
Speaker 1: bad losses in a row, right, Like, obviously you've got
Speaker 1: the Giants and they're embarrassed by the Chiefs. But this
Speaker 1: is this is basically it is, you got to take
Speaker 1: a stand right now if you're the Raiders and you
Speaker 1: have any sort of semblance of playoff hopes or anything
Speaker 1: like that to the next three games are the Chiefs
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys. Both of those games are on the road,
Speaker 1: So you lose this one, your season might as well
Speaker 1: just basically be over. So I think you're gonna get
Speaker 1: a spurited effort here on both sides of the ball.
Speaker 1: It's a home game, crowd's going to be into it,
Speaker 1: so that's where it is. But this is much more
Speaker 1: of a fade of the Bengals. Like people love the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Early on, it was very exciting, got the young kids here,
Speaker 1: with Jamar Chase amazing. Joe Burrow has looked great for
Speaker 1: the most part, as he came back earlier, sort of
Speaker 1: rounded into formal little earlier than I expected. But they
Speaker 1: are twenty fifth in overall DVOA. Like I mean, DVA
Speaker 1: is not everything, but that sort of gives you a
Speaker 1: good sense of what they actually are as a team.
Speaker 1: They're coming off losses to the Jets and the Browns,
Speaker 1: and I know they're coming off of bye, but the
Speaker 1: buy hasn't really met that much when you're looking at
Speaker 1: teams covering or not covering against spread here off the
Speaker 1: by this year in particular, and I really don't trust
Speaker 1: Zach Taylor on the road. It's a young team, it's
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. That always makes me a little nervous
Speaker 1: for the Raiders offense. The los anderw Ruggs is big,
Speaker 1: but I do think I mean, Deshaun Jackson obviously had
Speaker 1: that big fumble, but he played nine snaps last week.
Speaker 1: He's gonna play a little bit more this week. I
Speaker 1: think that's going to be able to help them do
Speaker 1: what they need to do, which is stretch the field
Speaker 1: a lot more to open up the underneath routes for
Speaker 1: hunter renfro for Darren Waller. We saw Brian Edwards get
Speaker 1: a little more involved, and the loss of alec Engold
Speaker 1: is bad. I mean, he's he's an important part. Actually,
Speaker 1: they're running in. Their running game has struggled, but it's
Speaker 1: just a bounce back spot. And there are two things
Speaker 1: when I looked at sort of what are we going
Speaker 1: to see here from the defense, which isn't isn't that
Speaker 1: great or anything like that, versus the Bengals offense again,
Speaker 1: which I just I never feel like it's really firing
Speaker 1: on all cylinders. The first thing that I saw is
Speaker 1: that the Raiders have a very good pass rush. Okay,
Speaker 1: now they didn't get any sacks against Patrick Mahomes, but
Speaker 1: this was just that was just the spot where I
Speaker 1: think the Chiefs were like, Okay, we've got it. Now,
Speaker 1: we're going to do a lot of quick players. We're
Speaker 1: going to get it out. The Raiders ranked ninth in
Speaker 1: pressure rate on the year. That's a twenty six percent,
Speaker 1: and again they just had the Chiefs where they didn't
Speaker 1: get a lot of pressure. But they do that despite
Speaker 1: the fact that they blitz at the lowest clip in
Speaker 1: the league, right thirteen point eight percent. By far the
Speaker 1: lowest in the league. They don't blitz, but they do
Speaker 1: get pressure with Max Crosby and everything. So the Bengals
Speaker 1: give up a ton of sacks. So it's just kind
Speaker 1: of a bad matchup when you can get pressure on
Speaker 1: any young quarterback here without blitzing. And the second is
Speaker 1: that the Raiders, you know, they play a lot of
Speaker 1: cover three here, they play a lot of zone. You
Speaker 1: look at how Burrow performs, He's much better against defenses
Speaker 1: I play man rather than zone. So I think this
Speaker 1: is really just the spot. I mean, I hate to
Speaker 1: say too many good things about the Raiders because I'm
Speaker 1: not buying the Raiders necessarily, but I'm much more selling
Speaker 1: the Bengals, even coming off a buye. I just don't
Speaker 1: believe in the team coming into Vegas. I think they struggle.
Speaker 1: It's basically a pick them game. I will take the
Speaker 1: home team, So give me the Raiders here getting one.
Speaker 1: I know we talked about a little bit earlier, Mike
Speaker 1: how you said it's probably the sharp side of it,
Speaker 1: but you know, obviously the public probably is gonna be
Speaker 1: a little more Oncensey, Right, Yeah.
Speaker 2: That's exactly right. And the sharp side last week like
Speaker 2: I mentioned, was the Vikings the line. What you're saying,
Speaker 2: why is the public one way and the money's going
Speaker 2: the other way? This is what you have with the
Speaker 2: Raiders here. Let's not forget Zach Taylor for bet Labs
Speaker 2: four fifteen and one against the spread on the road. Okay,
Speaker 2: And you see that tweet he had out the other
Speaker 2: day about when he goes he loves to play roulette.
Speaker 2: He loves to play roulette. I jokingly put out, give
Speaker 2: you the Raiders here. He's a little too focused on gambling.
Speaker 2: But Derek Carr has not typically been a turnover machine.
Speaker 2: He's a very safe quarterback. He's had some bad turnovers.
Speaker 2: I think last week was just spot against the Chiefs
Speaker 2: that it got out of hand. But they have played
Speaker 2: very well at home, They've competed, and remember against the
Speaker 2: Ravens earlier this year. I think the Raiders are a
Speaker 2: better team overall. People are gonna side with the Bengals
Speaker 2: because of the explosive offense, and like you said, Vegas
Speaker 2: has adjusted to teams coming off of bye and even
Speaker 2: with that adjustment, we're looking at the Raiders here only
Speaker 2: being a one point dog. So I'm with you. I
Speaker 2: think it's the sharp side this week Vegas and the
Speaker 2: Raiders here against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: I don't want to put too much into the young
Speaker 1: team traveling out to Vegas to sort of play, but
Speaker 1: I it does factor in to me. Like you got
Speaker 1: a veteran team like Mahomes, fine, like the Chiefs, whatever,
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter, get a young team like this
Speaker 1: coming out to Vegas. I don't think it's It's not
Speaker 1: like a huge thing, but it certainly is something that
Speaker 1: I think can be distracting a little bit and can
Speaker 1: factor in. But again, this spot the Raiders if they
Speaker 1: need this game, like this is their season essentially, and
Speaker 1: they're a better team I think than they've showed the
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. So all right, go to your
Speaker 1: second pick, Mike, what do you have?
Speaker 2: Give me the Seahawks. I love to fade the knee
Speaker 2: jerk reaction Dan. Last week's lost to Green Bay, Russell
Speaker 2: Wilson didn't look good, didn't have touch on the deep ball. Well,
Speaker 2: let's look at this a little deeper. They held the
Speaker 2: Packers with Aaron Rodgers at home to seventeen points. Wilson
Speaker 2: had an interception and the end zone really didn't play well.
Speaker 2: The Seahawks defense has actually been improving throughout the year.
Speaker 2: Let's remember that Seattle with the twelfth man at home,
Speaker 2: which they didn't have last year, always really tough per
Speaker 2: bet Labs, twenty four to twelve and six is what
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll is in his career against the spread. Coming
Speaker 2: off a loss. Seahawks had a brutal schedule, but they
Speaker 2: battled through it. With Geno Smith lost to the Rams,
Speaker 2: that's the game Wilson got hurt. Steelers three point loss.
Speaker 2: That was with Gino. Lost to the Saints by three
Speaker 2: at home. That was with Gino. Kyler Murray is very
Speaker 2: up in the air and Dan. When he doesn't run,
Speaker 2: he is not the same quarterback and the Cardinals don't
Speaker 2: win at the same rate. If he doesn't run for
Speaker 2: at least twenty yards, he averages eight fewer Fantasy points
Speaker 2: per game, and in the games that he doesn't hit twenty,
Speaker 2: he usually has hit over his career eight, which means
Speaker 2: when he's limited, he's very, very limited. He is not
Speaker 2: a prolific pocket passer. He's best when he's running outside
Speaker 2: of the tackles trying to create on his own. DeAndre
Speaker 2: Hopkins has been hurt all season long. They don't have
Speaker 2: Chase Edmonds. Seattle needs this game badly. And look, don't
Speaker 2: forget that the Seahawks are still in the playoff race.
Speaker 2: They're only three and six. The Panthers are in and
Speaker 2: they're five and five. So you're telling me now after
Speaker 2: nine games they're out of the playoff race. They are
Speaker 2: at home, their schedule is getting better. Division games are
Speaker 2: always close. If Murray doesn't play, I'm gonna love it.
Speaker 2: Like last week, I grib Carolina right away getting ten
Speaker 2: and a half, we heard no Murray. It got down
Speaker 2: to six. In this case, this could easily flip on Sunday.
Speaker 2: Arizona has their by next week. I don't know why
Speaker 2: you'd rush Murray back, and if it's still uncertain at
Speaker 2: this point, he's probably not healthy, which in his career
Speaker 2: means he hasn't always played well. I love Seattle as
Speaker 2: a home dog here getting two and a half, and
Speaker 2: I think Russ starts to cook again because the Seahawks
Speaker 2: need to make a playoff push.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so there are a couple of things. One is,
Speaker 1: just like you said, it is moving a little bit
Speaker 1: to two now, so it's bouncing back and forth between
Speaker 1: two and two and a half. I think you're on
Speaker 1: the right side of this. I do not expect Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray to play. I understand he's back in practice. But
Speaker 1: if you are the Cardinals, you have a buy next week,
Speaker 1: like you it's just not worth it, Like you have
Speaker 1: long term goals here, right, all right, you gotta be
Speaker 1: careful with this. But even if he plays, Mike, as
Speaker 1: you said, he is going to be limited. Like there,
Speaker 1: he's not coming back in one hundred percent. He's not
Speaker 1: going to run as much. That is a huge, huge
Speaker 1: thing for Kyler Murray and we saw last year, so
Speaker 1: it's something that is going to affect them. You talked
Speaker 1: about the Seahawks. This is talked about a little bit
Speaker 1: with the Raiders. This is a last stand a little
Speaker 1: bit with the Seahawks, because if you go to three
Speaker 1: and seven, then it's tough, right then is really tough.
Speaker 1: But you win this game. You mentioned it. They out Washington,
Speaker 1: they have the Texans, they have the Bears, they have
Speaker 1: the Lions. They've got a lot of really winnable games here.
Speaker 1: You win this game and suddenly like that's Evans spot,
Speaker 1: that's right there for you. I wonder though, and I
Speaker 1: was on the Seahawks last week thinking that Wilson would
Speaker 1: be okay. I mean, if Wilson plays anything like what
Speaker 1: he played last week, it's gonna be tough for them
Speaker 1: to be. You know, the Jets at this point, are
Speaker 1: you thinking that this was really just a man really
Speaker 1: rusty had to get used to. It should be closer
Speaker 1: to the rest that we see that we expected to
Speaker 1: see in this game.
Speaker 2: Totally agree. Remember those videos of him going through plays
Speaker 2: on his own with with you know, with no one
Speaker 2: around in pregame when he had the injury. No one
Speaker 2: works harder than this guy. I think it was a
Speaker 2: bad mix. I think it was the cold it was
Speaker 2: in Green Bay. The touch was gone. It will come back.
Speaker 2: Chris Carson should be activated for this game. He almost
Speaker 2: was last week and he should be for this game.
Speaker 2: And look, if you look at Arizona, they switched to
Speaker 2: Colt McCoy late in the week against San Francisco. I
Speaker 2: really believe that San Francisco was preparing for Kyler Murray
Speaker 2: and got all thrown off. Last week. Carolina prepared for
Speaker 2: Colt McCoy, and you saw what happens if they go
Speaker 2: with Colt McCoy. Again not going to go. Well, that's
Speaker 2: why he's a backup quarterback. So in some ways Arizona
Speaker 2: wants Murray to play because they know what they have
Speaker 2: in McCoy. But Murray is still going to be compromised,
Speaker 2: and you have your buy. I think it's a mess,
Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury, I'm not a fan of that offense is
Speaker 2: not explosive. They've been efficient, and they really have benefited
Speaker 2: from some early game turnovers. Even again San Francisco. Kittle
Speaker 2: makes a catch, he fumbles, they score touchdown. Ayuk makes
Speaker 2: a catch, he fumbles, They score touchdown. As long as
Speaker 2: Seattle doesn't turn this ball over, I think they control
Speaker 2: this game with the defense. And I don't even know
Speaker 2: if Russ has to have three hundred yards, he just
Speaker 2: has to be solid because at home they have such
Speaker 2: an advantage.
Speaker 1: By the way, I mean you did bringing up the
Speaker 1: defense for Seattle, which was not a plus necessarily early on,
Speaker 1: has played so much better of late that it's now
Speaker 1: something again at home something. It's a positive unit basically
Speaker 1: at this point. So yeah, I'm with you. This was
Speaker 1: a game I would have taken Mike for sure. As
Speaker 1: you know, I'm going to let you have it, which
Speaker 1: is fine, You're quite welcome. You are the gutch. Instead,
Speaker 1: I'm going to game that. When I first looked at
Speaker 1: I said, I want no part of this game other
Speaker 1: than to have some popcorn and watch. And instead, when
Speaker 1: I dug into it, I said, okay, you know what,
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Chiefs laying under a field
Speaker 1: goal of two and a half against the Cowboys. And
Speaker 1: this line hasn't moved all week. All these lines were
Speaker 1: talking about like they've all had a little bit of
Speaker 1: movement one way or another, blah blah. This one just
Speaker 1: stuck two and a half. I looked at this game, Mike,
Speaker 1: and I was going through it a little bit. Let's
Speaker 1: start with just historically, this is a spot where you
Speaker 1: back Mahomes and the Chiefs. It's obviously a home field advantage.
Speaker 1: It's a big one. We know always about how like Man,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs don't cover, the Chiefs uncover, the Chiefs uncovered.
Speaker 1: Chiefs don't cover because they're always pretty significant favorites. Right
Speaker 1: when they are a dog which is rare, or a
Speaker 1: short home favorite, it's seventy seven percent of the time
Speaker 1: where Mahomes will cover. So just historically speaking, put out
Speaker 1: anything else. This is a good spot for homes. You
Speaker 1: saw the offensive joshuents last week, right, You figured we
Speaker 1: would eventually see them. I didn't know when we would
Speaker 1: see them. We finally did see them, and you look
Speaker 1: at their offense. Their offense has been broken for whatever.
Speaker 1: Blah blah blah blah. The Chiefs are second behind the
Speaker 1: Bucks in EPA per play offensively, And just to explain
Speaker 1: what that means to everybody, EPA is essentially expected points added.
Speaker 1: That's basically how well a team performs relative to what
Speaker 1: the expectations would be. Uh. They're again behind only the Bucks.
Speaker 1: As I said, they're better than the Bills, the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: the Rams like. Their offense looks terrible and looks broken,
Speaker 1: but it's still basically one of the truly elite units
Speaker 1: in the NFL. They're first in success rate fifty one
Speaker 1: point seven percent. That's basically how efficient your offense is
Speaker 1: within the context of the play. How about the defense.
Speaker 1: That's been the big deal right there. It's been much
Speaker 1: maligned all year. Everybody hates the defense. It's been terrible,
Speaker 1: one of the worst defenses in the league. That's true,
Speaker 1: but not as much lately, right they're playing a little
Speaker 1: better lately. They've allowed sixteen points per game over the
Speaker 1: last five. Yes, they've had some soft matchups the Giants,
Speaker 1: the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, of course, but we didn't
Speaker 1: talk about that much when we were looking at their
Speaker 1: defense earlier on the season. It's been injured like throughout
Speaker 1: the year. It's been injured. Not one guy, but it's
Speaker 1: like every week they had a different guy who was
Speaker 1: just missing. Now everyone is healthy last couple of games,
Speaker 1: and they've been playing a lot better. Willie Gays back,
Speaker 1: he is playing well. Lajerius Sneed is playing very well.
Speaker 1: They added Melvin Ingram, and they've gotten a lot more
Speaker 1: pressure now when you look at them over the last
Speaker 1: four weeks, they're actually ninth overall in pressure rate on
Speaker 1: the season mentioned DPA per play. Offensively, they're tenth defensively
Speaker 1: over the last three games, all right, so they have
Speaker 1: been better for sure defensively. Now. The Cowboys are great.
Speaker 1: It's a great team, but they're not as good defensively
Speaker 1: as everybody sort of wants or expects them to be.
Speaker 1: They've done a good job of getting pressure for most
Speaker 1: of the season, even though they haven't had DeMarcus Lawrence,
Speaker 1: but now they're without Randy Gregory's on ir here excuse
Speaker 1: me with the calf injury. He led the team with
Speaker 1: twenty quarterback pressure, so it is a big deal in
Speaker 1: terms of them being able to get pressure. Defense is good,
Speaker 1: but it's much more about them being opportunistic and forcing turno.
Speaker 1: They take chances, and when you take chances against the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: I think that that's just something that's gonna burn you eventually.
Speaker 1: And offensively, they are great, but they've been home forever. Okay,
Speaker 1: they've been home. They opened two games on the road,
Speaker 1: so they've been home five of their last seven games.
Speaker 1: They're a different team on the road, not nearly as good.
Speaker 1: Tyron Smith may still miss this game. Seee Lambs a
Speaker 1: little banged up. I think you know, Kansas City is
Speaker 1: gonna get some pressure here again, just based on how
Speaker 1: much they've been getting pressure lately. I think that's gonna
Speaker 1: force back into just enough mistakes. I think the Chiefs
Speaker 1: win this game. If you're giving it to me under
Speaker 1: a field goal at home in Arrowhead, I'm taking the leap, Mike.
Speaker 1: I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on it.
Speaker 2: Let's just go with regression. Dan Dallas is eight to
Speaker 2: one against the spread. They're four to zero against the
Speaker 2: spread on the road. I mean these lines get sharper
Speaker 2: as the year goes on. Do you really think the
Speaker 2: Cowboys are gonna go undefeated against the spread on the road.
Speaker 2: I love how this number is staying under three if
Speaker 2: you like Kansas City. Kansas City three and seven against
Speaker 2: the spread, zero and five against the spread at home.
Speaker 2: So if you just want to go from a regression standpoint,
Speaker 2: that's the play. I think Kansas City had turned a
Speaker 2: corner against the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes has been off on
Speaker 2: his deep passes. He missed Tyreek Hill down the sideline
Speaker 2: last game. He missed Mcole Harbon in.
Speaker 1: The end zone.
Speaker 2: But what have they been doing to compensate? They're getting
Speaker 2: more short quick hitters. Who saw Byron Pringle involved last week.
Speaker 2: The Chiefs defense is getting better. I think the Cowboys legit.
Speaker 2: I think they're a Super Bowl contender. But Kansas City
Speaker 2: at home and arrowhead Andy Reid starting to figure it out.
Speaker 2: Melvin Ingram really under the radar trade Pittsburgh to Kansas City.
Speaker 2: He played big, had a couple of big sticks last
Speaker 2: week as well against the Raiders. I am on the
Speaker 2: side with you as the Chiefs just banking on some regression.
Speaker 2: I mean, if you think the Cowboys are gonna go
Speaker 2: undefeated against a spread on the road and the Chiefs
Speaker 2: are gonna go winless against the spread at home, then fine,
Speaker 2: I gets you back the Cowboys here, but I'm not
Speaker 2: I like the two and a half. It keeps in
Speaker 2: our number three. I'm with you on Kansas City.
Speaker 1: And we didn't really talk about move and Ingram that
Speaker 1: much because he wasn't playing that much with the Steelers
Speaker 1: like they were just like, I'm sorry, you can't crack
Speaker 1: the depth chart. But he has been very good since
Speaker 1: he's been with the Chiefs, and I really do think
Speaker 1: could change it. And what the Chiefs finally is they
Speaker 1: didn't condunked a little bit more to open up the
Speaker 1: bigger play, which is what you wanted. I don't know
Speaker 1: if Clyde Edwards Hilira is gonna come back this week, hopefully,
Speaker 1: but Andy Reid is putting, you know, he's boo pooing
Speaker 1: a little bit. But Daryl William has been very capable,
Speaker 1: especially as a pass catcher. So I just think, man
Speaker 1: in this it's gonna be a great game. I can't
Speaker 1: wait to watch it. Almost am sad to gonna have
Speaker 1: some action on it. But still I think if you
Speaker 1: were underfield goal and again, I don't think it moves.
Speaker 1: I think we are locked in right here at two
Speaker 1: and a half. We have been all week. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with the Chiefs to win it. Last pick, Mike,
Speaker 1: go for it.
Speaker 2: Listen. If it ain't broke, Dan, don't fix it. Mike
Speaker 2: Tomlin on the ru right. Tomlin as an underdog has
Speaker 2: been an incredible bet so far. He gets the team ready,
Speaker 2: he gets them fired up. They are seventeen and four,
Speaker 2: that's eighty one percent against the spread the Steelers with
Speaker 2: Tomlin as an underdog since twenty eighteen. Since September of
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, they are twelve and three against the spread
Speaker 2: as an underdog as a favorite. And I bet it
Speaker 2: last week and it continued on. They have lost their
Speaker 2: last eight games against the spread. They're oh at eight
Speaker 2: when they are favorite. So now we're down on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: They tied Detroit at home. Everyone's frustrated. There's injuries there.
Speaker 2: We're worried about TJ watatt Is Roethlisberger going to play.
Speaker 2: This is where Tomlin is superior. They're going on the road.
Speaker 2: They're playing a Charger team that is dead last in
Speaker 2: rush defense. DVOA, dead last. Najay Harris, who's been fantastic
Speaker 2: the volume, has played really, really well. Another under the
Speaker 2: radar point. Last week, Roethlisberger was announced out on Saturday,
Speaker 2: which means to me that all week long, Pittsburgh really
Speaker 2: didn't prepare Mason Rudolph. He was kind of thrown in
Speaker 2: last minute. Mason Rudolph is very capable in these spots.
Speaker 2: I think back to an old game when Steelers played
Speaker 2: the Chargers. I think it was My Night Football where
Speaker 2: Michael Vick was the quarterback because Roethlisberger was out, and
Speaker 2: the Steelers won that game at the very end where
Speaker 2: Leaveon Bell got into the end zone. I love Pittsburgh here.
Speaker 2: It's around five and a half. I would love it
Speaker 2: even more if they announced that Mason Rudolph is starting,
Speaker 2: because you know what will happen. The line will go
Speaker 2: in the other direction. We'll get six six and a half.
Speaker 2: I'm fine with it. They had a full week of practice.
Speaker 2: No one believes in us. I know there's injuries for
Speaker 2: the Steelers, there's also injuries for the Chargers. No Joey Bosa.
Speaker 2: Mike Williams has been really struggling. I think in fantasy
Speaker 2: he was the wide receiver too for the first five
Speaker 2: weeks and the last five weeks he's been the wide
Speaker 2: receiver eighty so he's struggling as well. Heavy dose of
Speaker 2: Naj Harris. The Steelers can absolutely win this game, and
Speaker 2: it's way too many points. Sometimes you want to follow
Speaker 2: a trend, sometimes you don't. In this case, I am
Speaker 2: sticking with it. Tomlin is great in these spots. The
Speaker 2: Steelers absolutely think they can win the division. We're hearing
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson maybe out against the Bears, so they need
Speaker 2: this game. They're angry, they're focused, and the trend works
Speaker 2: in our favor. I will take the Steelers and the points,
Speaker 2: and I'll take it. Whether it's Ben who should be
Speaker 2: back or Mason Rudolph doesn't matter to me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was the question whether or not you felt
Speaker 1: the same. Look. I talk about it almost every week,
Speaker 1: like put everything else aside. There are Tomlin spots where
Speaker 1: you know what's gonna happen. You don't back them as
Speaker 1: a large favorite. You almost always back him as an underdog,
Speaker 1: a road underdog for chore, but any underdog, he just
Speaker 1: gets his guys up, man like, right, like, this is
Speaker 1: what happens every week. And you make a great point,
Speaker 1: by the way, Ben's self reported symptoms last week on Saturday, right,
Speaker 1: so you're right, they went. And it's not like Mason
Speaker 1: Rodolff's you know, been that impressive generally speaking when he's played.
Speaker 1: But regardless, it's a big deal when you're like on Saturday,
Speaker 1: when you haven't had any chance to practice, then suddenly
Speaker 1: a guy's like, oh you're starting right now. It's as
Speaker 1: big also, and all the rain and everything like that,
Speaker 1: and just how bad that was. This is a spot.
Speaker 1: They're embarrassed the fact that they tied the Lions and
Speaker 1: everything like that. Yeah, man, it's a spot. And I
Speaker 1: do think that the Chargers are overrated right now, and
Speaker 1: I don't. It's six and a half by the way,
Speaker 1: to a lot of books, so it's five and a half,
Speaker 1: six and a half, consensus line five and a half.
Speaker 1: But yeah, man, I worry a little bit about the
Speaker 1: Charges justin Herbert has you know, their metrics that suggest
Speaker 1: that he's been better than he's played. But I do
Speaker 1: think that he's struggling a little bit with this offense,
Speaker 1: which is not all that unexpected. So I like this spot.
Speaker 1: This is a good one for you. Again, probably wouldn't
Speaker 1: have been one of my picks, but I did like
Speaker 1: it a lot. I'd rather get uglier, though, Mike. I'd
Speaker 1: rather get really ugly. Okay, I'd rather get Texans getting
Speaker 1: ten from the Titans ugly. Let's get really now. I
Speaker 1: want this at ten and a half. Okay, our sponsors,
Speaker 1: bet MGM, if you can bet on BETMGM, do it
Speaker 1: for this game because it's ten and a half. But
Speaker 1: the majority of books are at ten. Mike, there's no
Speaker 1: way the Titans are as good as this eight and
Speaker 1: two number one seen the AFC. Right, Like, put aside
Speaker 1: before I get into it. Do you you think the
Speaker 1: Titans are the best team in the AFC?
Speaker 2: Mike, No, I do not, especially not without Derrick Henry.
Speaker 1: No. I mean, right, and you look by the way,
Speaker 1: you're like, wow, they continue to win. They're well coached,
Speaker 1: but they have gotten breaks here and you look at
Speaker 1: what their offense is done without Derrick Henry is not good.
Speaker 1: Like the fact that they beat the Rams, I mean
Speaker 1: they had the pick six they didn't gain a ton
Speaker 1: of yards on offense or anything like that. I get
Speaker 1: that they've beaten everyone, the Chiefs, the Bills, the Colts,
Speaker 1: the Rams, but you can have these to to too
Speaker 1: games with these huge teams like this every single week
Speaker 1: and just not eventually have some sort of letdown. I'm
Speaker 1: not picking the Texans to win, let's make it clear,
Speaker 1: but this is a letdown spot for them. The Titans
Speaker 1: are eighteenth overall in DVOA, eighteenth, like a middle of
Speaker 1: the road team. They're down Dereck Henry, as we just said,
Speaker 1: they're down Julio Jones. And you look at how they
Speaker 1: play under Mike Rabel. They play to the level of
Speaker 1: competition a little bit. They play up when they've got
Speaker 1: the really good teams, they play down when they've got
Speaker 1: the bad teams. The offense, again, has not really been
Speaker 1: good without Derek Henry right now, they haven't gained a
Speaker 1: ton of yards. It's just been a lot of short fields,
Speaker 1: a lot of turnovers. The Texans are terrible. I'm not
Speaker 1: defending the Texans anyway, shape or fork, but I do
Speaker 1: think that it should be a different team with Tarni
Speaker 1: Taylor and we're like whoa. What about You know when
Speaker 1: before the bye, Torod Taylor came back looked like maybe
Speaker 1: the worst quarterback in football. We see rust, guys, Okay,
Speaker 1: we saw it with Russell Wilson. We didn't saw with
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers sort of not practicing for ten days stepping
Speaker 1: back in. We took for granted. I think that Taylor
Speaker 1: was going to be able to step up against an
Speaker 1: improving Dolphins defenses. I think we are now all understanding,
Speaker 1: like he turned the ball over a million times, He's
Speaker 1: not going to do that again, That's not sort of
Speaker 1: what Tarrod Taylor does. It's a divisional game. Weird things
Speaker 1: sort of happen in divisional games. This just does not
Speaker 1: strike me as a game that the Titans are just
Speaker 1: going to completely roll. And even if they do win handily,
Speaker 1: I think you'll have enough with Taylor to have the
Speaker 1: potential for a backdoor cover. If you can get ten
Speaker 1: and a half, please go get ten and a half.
Speaker 1: But even at ten, Mike, I don't know, man. I
Speaker 1: think the Texas is this game by a field go
Speaker 1: how ugly? How ugly? Is this probably the ugliest game
Speaker 1: on the board.
Speaker 2: Ugly is beautiful? You said it perfectly. Houston is really
Speaker 2: sitting in the perfect spot to get Tennessee. Tennessee has
Speaker 2: played Buffalo, the Chiefs, at the Colts, at the Rams,
Speaker 2: the Saints, and next week at New England. If there
Speaker 2: is ever going to be a flat spot for Tennessee,
Speaker 2: this is it ten and a half. Right, they can
Speaker 2: get a backdoor cover. This is a Houston team that
Speaker 2: almost be the Patriots at home, and you know what
Speaker 2: Belichick with his preparation. So yes, I think they're overvalued.
Speaker 2: I lost that bet the Texans at the Dolphins prior
Speaker 2: to their bye week. Yeah, Taylor turned it over so
Speaker 2: many times. I think it was five and a half.
Speaker 2: If he just didn't turn over one of those times,
Speaker 2: I think they cover. The Dolphins at home have been
Speaker 2: certainly tough. You so with it against the Ravens, I
Speaker 2: think it's way too many points. It's the perfect flat spot.
Speaker 2: And listen, I think Tennessee kudos to Rabel and the
Speaker 2: whole crew. They're due for a stinker here, some negative regression.
Speaker 2: They can win this game ugly by three or six
Speaker 2: points and we still cover, And of course you have
Speaker 2: the back door. Yes, flat spot, Tyrod Taylor plays better
Speaker 2: Texans I agree.
Speaker 1: And the bottom line is, just like the offense without
Speaker 1: Dark Henry, we're we're taking it for granted because of
Speaker 1: the fact that they've won the last two games. It
Speaker 1: has not been good and they played tough defenses, of course,
Speaker 1: I mean the Rams and the Saints, but they're barely
Speaker 1: squeaking by sort of you know there and again they
Speaker 1: had the fluky pick six and the short fields and
Speaker 1: everything like that against the Rams. I don't know, man
Speaker 1: off of bye all Texans all day long. I love it. Okay,
Speaker 1: very quickly, let me recap, Mike, you are taking let
Speaker 1: me get there. Sorry, I've totally got it. It's fine.
Speaker 1: I was not jotting, goat, it's definitely not okay. You're
Speaker 1: taking the Vikings plus two and a half against the Packers,
Speaker 1: who are taking the Seahawks getting three. No, no, I
Speaker 1: think it's two and a half now against the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: and you are taking these Steelers getting five and a
Speaker 1: half here against the Chargers. I am taking the Raiders
Speaker 1: getting one against the Bengals, the Chiefs slaying two and
Speaker 1: a half against the Cowboys, and of course the greatest
Speaker 1: pick of all time, the Texans getting ten against the Titans.
Speaker 1: Let's went through their remaining spreads real quick. Okay, Mike,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna we'll hold you to it. We'll see where
Speaker 1: you are right now, because people might be listening to
Speaker 1: this after the game. We can know whether or not
Speaker 1: you're right or wrong or what are you doing tonight?
Speaker 1: The spread now six and a half with the Falcons
Speaker 1: getting six and a half from the Pats.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really a toss up for me. I'm kind
Speaker 2: of staying away. My favorite move is to tease the
Speaker 2: Patriots down. I don't think the Patriots lose this game. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I also like the Falcons in the first half. They're
Speaker 2: getting three and a half at most books plus three
Speaker 2: and a half in the first half. I think they
Speaker 2: come out strong. I think the Patriots win and so
Speaker 2: the Falcons are limited their home. But just the fact
Speaker 2: that the Patriots dominated by so much against the Browns
Speaker 2: and the Falcons look so bad against the Cowboys makes
Speaker 2: me lean to a stay away here. I don't trust
Speaker 2: the Falcons, certainly, but could this be six points? Absolutely?
Speaker 2: So I'm teasing the Patriots down and I like the
Speaker 2: Falcons first half plus three and a half, but I'm
Speaker 2: not going to play the spread I think it's too high.
Speaker 1: It's a really tough game, just because everything that you
Speaker 1: look at is the classic Bilo so high right that
Speaker 1: Falcons look like the worst team in football. Maybe down
Speaker 1: Cordero Patterson, the Patriots look like the best team in football.
Speaker 1: That's mantling the Browns in the game again that I
Speaker 1: was on the Browns. But that's it's just tough because
Speaker 1: the personnel does not do it. I have it at
Speaker 1: the Falcons plus seven a very minor taste. It's not
Speaker 1: down to six and a half, which is not enough
Speaker 1: for me. I don't feel greatly confident in it. But
Speaker 1: full disclosure, and you can see in the betting pros
Speaker 1: app and I am on the Falcons plus seven. So
Speaker 1: I will be watching and vomiting a little bit tonight.
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are visiting the Jets. They are laying three
Speaker 1: and a half against the Joe Flacco led Jets. This
Speaker 1: was three or early in the week. It's now three
Speaker 1: and a half. What do you think?
Speaker 2: I like the Jets and the points. These rivalry games
Speaker 2: have been so crazy either way. The Dolphins are playing well,
Speaker 2: but they may be a little overvalue coming off the Ravens.
Speaker 2: I know it's Joe Flacco, but Michael Carter's been excellent.
Speaker 2: They have to continue to get Elijah more involved, and
Speaker 2: the Jets defense has been decent here. These games are
Speaker 2: so so many crazy things, right, Dan, We had the
Speaker 2: Chad Pennington revenge game, We had the Dan Marino fake spike.
Speaker 2: We had the Jets down I think thirty to seven
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter, had a massive comeback and won
Speaker 2: that game. So I'm gonna take the points in this game,
Speaker 2: in this rivalry, and I'll take it with the Jets here.
Speaker 2: I don't love it because it's Flacco, but I'm gonna
Speaker 2: grab the points. And when I think is a coin.
Speaker 1: Flip, yeah, I'm staying away. I mean I don't want it. Yes,
Speaker 1: this has a historically like bizarre rivalry with these su teams.
Speaker 1: And again I use the word rivalry very very loosely
Speaker 1: because it really hasn't been that. But yes, I do
Speaker 1: recall all those games vividly. It's been very exciting to watch.
Speaker 1: But I'm saying away, what about the Saints visiting the
Speaker 1: Eagles here, Mike, the Eagles are laying to It's a
Speaker 1: really interesting game. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm hearing the kamaraes back, which would be big.
Speaker 2: And listen, the Eagles have been much better than I
Speaker 2: thought it would be, and Jalen Hurts really has played well.
Speaker 2: That was a nice game against the Broncos. Yeah, but
Speaker 2: Sean Payton is a great strategist and he did barely
Speaker 2: cover against the Titans on the road. But this team
Speaker 2: is good. They still have a tremendous offensive line. They're
Speaker 2: going to run the ball. I expect Taysom Hill to
Speaker 2: get worked in a little bit more, and I trust
Speaker 2: Sean Payton and this offensive line. And you know, the
Speaker 2: Saints of defense is great. So I think Hurts can
Speaker 2: make a couple of mistakes. He's played well, but I
Speaker 2: trust the Saints more and I trust Payton again, similar
Speaker 2: to last week. I'll go back and take the points,
Speaker 2: and if Kamala plays, I think that line goes the
Speaker 2: other way. So I like New Orleans and Seowan Payton
Speaker 2: here on the road.
Speaker 1: Strikes me something. I want to tease up with the Saints,
Speaker 1: to tease it up from two to maybe eight, because
Speaker 1: I do think the Saints win this game. But the
Speaker 1: Eagles really are playing exceptionally well, and this is the
Speaker 1: spot since they've changed our offense Fossphy and if they
Speaker 1: win this game, by the way, given their remaining schedule, right,
Speaker 1: it's a ton of Giants and Washington like they really
Speaker 1: should make the playoffs if they win this game, and
Speaker 1: they probably know that, right, So it's a big game
Speaker 1: for them. But yet it's really tough to fade the
Speaker 1: Saints here after a couple tough losses with how well
Speaker 1: coached they are, So I lean towards the Saints getting
Speaker 1: the two, but I'd really much prefer to tease them up.
Speaker 1: You almost had this game, Mike. You switched it out.
Speaker 1: The Panthers are now laying three to the Washington football team.
Speaker 2: Only because it's three. Dan, I love the Panthers in
Speaker 2: this spot, but I do think Washington's playing well. Ron
Speaker 2: rivera game, however you want to look at it. Yeah, No,
Speaker 2: Chase Young Cam is back, and I think he's going
Speaker 2: to play very very well. Christian McCaffrey last week only
Speaker 2: a sixty two percent snapshare had the overall I believe
Speaker 2: RB one or RB two performance with ten receptions. I
Speaker 2: know Antonio Gibson look good, which is what you're going
Speaker 2: to have to do against the Panthers is run the ball.
Speaker 2: But much like Missouri, I'm the show me state. I
Speaker 2: need to see mister Gibson do it again here. I
Speaker 2: don't trust Taylor Heineke. They really have struggled. The Fitzpatrick
Speaker 2: was healthy. I think Washington could have really been pretty
Speaker 2: decent this year, but Heinike's been very up and down.
Speaker 2: The Carolina defense is legit Stefan Gilmour two interceptions, He's
Speaker 2: not even playing that many snaps. I think that increases here.
Speaker 2: There's good fifty to fifty action. I love Carolina if
Speaker 2: it gets under three to two and a half or two,
Speaker 2: because I think they keep rolling and they get a
Speaker 2: win here they've righted the ship and with Cam under center,
Speaker 2: that's huge. But with three and a half, I'm kind
Speaker 2: of not crazy about it, so I'd stay away. If
Speaker 2: it's down to three, it's a close bed. If it's
Speaker 2: under three, it's an automatic push for me.
Speaker 1: With the Panthers, it's basically three or three and a half.
Speaker 1: At every book, it's basically fifty to fifty consensus line.
Speaker 1: Technically three because of you know, that's probably the majority
Speaker 1: about like one book or anything like that. I kind
Speaker 1: of like Washington at three and a half. It wouldn't
Speaker 1: be one that I would bet, certainly, But I kind
Speaker 1: of just feel like I don't know necessarily what we're
Speaker 1: gonna expect to see here from Cam the defense is legit.
Speaker 1: I've always just thought the Washington football team should be
Speaker 1: better than it is, even without Chase Young. So it's
Speaker 1: pretty much a stay away from me. I could see
Speaker 1: it at three and a half. I could see the
Speaker 1: Panthers at under three. Like you said, basically, we're basically
Speaker 1: seeing it largely the same way. Bills at home seven
Speaker 1: laying seven against the Colts.
Speaker 2: You know, the Cults have been playing well. I just
Speaker 2: think the Bills run defense is the big difference here.
Speaker 2: With the exception of the Derrick Henry game, the Bills
Speaker 2: have shut down the opposing running back, going back to
Speaker 2: Naji Harris, Miles Gaskin, you name the running back, you
Speaker 2: can't run it on them. So it's gonna have to
Speaker 2: be Carson Wentz in the passing game on the road.
Speaker 2: That makes me nervous. I know it's a big number,
Speaker 2: but the Bills really were upset about that stumble against Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: Stefan Diggs got going last week against the Jets. I
Speaker 2: am laying the points here with Buffalo. It's not one
Speaker 2: of my top picks, but I don't see a situation
Speaker 2: where Jonathan Taylor goes crazy. I actually put him as
Speaker 2: a fade in my fantasy article because I think his
Speaker 2: price is too high in DFS and the culture going
Speaker 2: to need Jonathan Taylor to have a big game to
Speaker 2: keep this game close. Bill's have a lot of weapons.
Speaker 2: Zach Moss looks back, Dawson Knox is back, which is
Speaker 2: huge against the Indianapolis defense. So I'm laying the points.
Speaker 2: It reminds me of the game earlier in the year
Speaker 2: where Washington went to Buffalo. It's like nine and a
Speaker 2: half and people are all over it and the Bills
Speaker 2: hung in number Colts. If you like the Colts, that
Speaker 2: means you believe Taylor is going to beat up that
Speaker 2: run defensive Buffalo, which just hasn't happened outside of the
Speaker 2: you know immovable object, which is Derrick Henry.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a big game for both teams, right.
Speaker 1: The Colts are five and five. They need to win
Speaker 1: to stick up Bill suddenly had the Patriots breathing down
Speaker 1: their neck. If the Pats win tonight, this is a
Speaker 1: game where they've got to win. There are a couple
Speaker 1: of seven and a halfs out there. Fox Bet, for example,
Speaker 1: points bet that you know I would be okay with
Speaker 1: the Colts frankly at over a touchdown. At a touchdown.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, way Bill's Buffalo is very difficult place
Speaker 1: to play, especially as it gets late into the year,
Speaker 1: as we're getting right now. So it is something where
Speaker 1: I'm a little nervous about it. I'd probably say away,
Speaker 1: but I kind of lean cults a little bit. If
Speaker 1: you're getting the hook over seven forty nine ers visiting
Speaker 1: the Jaguars six and a half points, what do you think?
Speaker 2: Give me the Jaguars selling the Niners off a big
Speaker 2: win here on the road. Jaguars pass defense has been
Speaker 2: pretty sneaky. I mean, we just saw this Jaguars team
Speaker 2: play well against Buffalo. Here comes Jimmy g I kind
Speaker 2: of like the Jaguars here. I think they keep it close.
Speaker 2: I will take the points with a home team like
Speaker 2: San Francisco and the way they're going, they're gonna have
Speaker 2: to run it down the throat of the Jaguars. And
Speaker 2: I like Jeff Wilson has been back. I think he
Speaker 2: looked pretty good last week. Is starting to get acclimated,
Speaker 2: but Elijah Mitchell has always hurt. I don't think Deebo
Speaker 2: Samuel runs wild like he did in the last game,
Speaker 2: because I do trust the Jaguars a little bit on
Speaker 2: the pass defense. So I'll take the points with the
Speaker 2: Jaguars here on the you know, I'm not ready to
Speaker 2: lay a touchdown with Jimmy g on the road.
Speaker 1: I think the sharp side is clearly the Jaguars, as
Speaker 1: it almost always is with the Jaguars involved. I just again,
Speaker 1: I'm just being honest, to stay away from me, stay
Speaker 1: away for me, like completely, because I think the Jaguars
Speaker 1: are the right side, and I cannot pull the trigger
Speaker 1: on Urban Meyer with that one. We mentioned Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1: There are questions because he's been sick. The Ravens right
Speaker 1: now are on the road against the Bears coming off
Speaker 1: by right now. The consensus line is five, but it varies.
Speaker 1: There are sixes out there, there are four and a
Speaker 1: half's out there. It's all over the place a little bit.
Speaker 1: So let's just take it at five. What I mean,
Speaker 1: do you just stay away because we don't know what's
Speaker 1: going on with Lamar Jackson or what.
Speaker 2: It's either a stay away because of Lamar, or, like
Speaker 2: you've said before, tease it up with Chicago. Justin Fields
Speaker 2: has played well at home, They competed, the defense is strong.
Speaker 2: The question is can the Ravens adjust if it's Lamar
Speaker 2: against the pressure, The Dolphins basically said, Lamar, beat us
Speaker 2: with your arm, We're not gonna let you run, and
Speaker 2: they blitz the house and he couldn't handle it. So
Speaker 2: of course Harbar's going to adjust. But Lamar is a
Speaker 2: big unknown for me, so I don't know how he's
Speaker 2: gonna go, and I want to stay away, but I
Speaker 2: think it's very viable to tease up the Bears. Because
Speaker 2: you tease it up now, soppost Lamar Jackson doesn't play. Now,
Speaker 2: you're getting eleven twelve points of value with Justin Fields
Speaker 2: and the Bears at home, which is fair. Dornell Mooney
Speaker 2: has been great, Alan Robinson not as much, and David
Speaker 2: Montgomery is back, which could mean good things for him.
Speaker 2: So even against the tough ra Ravens run defense. So
Speaker 2: stay away right now, but if you want, you can
Speaker 2: tease it up.
Speaker 1: Brown's are at home laying eleven to the Lions. It
Speaker 1: does sound like Baker Mayfield's going to play. We're still
Speaker 1: waiting on Nick Chubb to get cleared. But this is
Speaker 1: obviously Jared Goff. We have questions as to whether or
Speaker 1: not he's going to play, and if you can't play,
Speaker 1: can he be effective? So eleven points? There are some
Speaker 1: eleven and a half right now. This was ten when
Speaker 1: I took a look at it on Monday. So eleven, now,
Speaker 1: what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's still uncertain with the running back situation. I
Speaker 2: think Kareem Hunt is out, Nick Chubb may be out.
Speaker 2: A lot of unknowns here, Baker admit that he's hurting.
Speaker 2: It's a lot of points. It's to stay away. Jared
Speaker 2: Goff doesn't play. I don't know how you take the
Speaker 2: Lions in that situation, but it's just a lot of
Speaker 2: points that to stay away with a lot of unknowns.
Speaker 2: But certainly I think the Browns win. To question is
Speaker 2: do they cover?
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure I'm out on it as well.
Speaker 1: Last game here Monday night football Bucks looking to bounce
Speaker 1: back here against the Giants. Now laying eleven again. This
Speaker 1: was something that was ten when I first looked at it.
Speaker 1: Ten and a half. Now it's eleven. What do you think.
Speaker 2: It's a stay away. You could tease down the Bucks
Speaker 2: if you wanted to. What I really like here is
Speaker 2: the over because I think the Giants are going to
Speaker 2: score points and there Brady's going to want to hang
Speaker 2: a number and try to get this team back on track.
Speaker 2: Leonard four Nette, it's been fantastic. So the number is
Speaker 2: high and Daniel Jones reeks of a backdoor cover with
Speaker 2: this number. There's no side on the Giants that I
Speaker 2: would take. I like the Buccaneers, probably like to get
Speaker 2: that number down, but again, laying double digits in the
Speaker 2: NFL dan is hard, especially in this spot. So probably
Speaker 2: lean more towards the over because I do think the
Speaker 2: Giants will put up points, and I know the Buccaneers
Speaker 2: at home will put up points.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I like the over as well. I
Speaker 1: would avoid the spread entirely just because Danny dimes on
Speaker 1: the road that's where he does it. So that is
Speaker 1: something where I am avoiding. Let me just quickly again
Speaker 1: recap before I let you go. Here. You are on
Speaker 1: the Vikings getting two and a half from the Packers,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks getting I think it's two and a half,
Speaker 1: maybe three. I'll check whatever they says, it's line up.
Speaker 1: I'll take three, you'll take three. I like it. I'll
Speaker 1: give you two and a half though, because that's what
Speaker 1: that's the line is, all right. The Hawks getting two
Speaker 1: and a half from the Cardinals. Again, that's that's a pick.
Speaker 1: I'm definitely on as well. And you are taking the
Speaker 1: Steelers getting five and a half here from the Chargers.
Speaker 1: I am taking the Raiders getting one from the Bengals,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs laying two and a half to the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: and the Texans thankfully getting ten from the Titans. Mic.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining me. I appreciate you.
Speaker 1: Just mind everybody where they can check you out in
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: You can follow me on Twitter at Randall Rant and
Speaker 2: all the great stuff for the Action Network. And every
Speaker 2: Thursday the roadab is fantasy football mail bag, which I have.
Speaker 1: To get you on Dan by the way, yeah, what
Speaker 1: the heck?
Speaker 2: Everywhere every week Thursday morning we preview the Thursday games
Speaker 2: to talk about the weekend.
Speaker 1: All right, good well, I look forward then to popping
Speaker 1: on your podcast in the meantime. I hope everybody is
Speaker 1: a great football Sunday and weekend. Just generally enjoy it.
Speaker 1: We'll be back as we always are. On Monday, take
Speaker 1: an early look at the week twelve lines. Goodness, Christians,
Speaker 1: can't believe they're already. I'll talk to you them, guys,