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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought

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Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty eight.

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Speaker 1: This week eleven, it is time to talk about our

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Speaker 1: best bets for the weekend of the NFL. With me

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Speaker 1: to do that, here is Mike Randall from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Find him on Twitter at randal rant Mike. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: joining me today. How you doing.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate you having me. It's exciting. We got NFL football,

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Speaker 2: Fantasy football is hitting the playoffs, lines are getting sharper, Dan,

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Speaker 2: we got to de goo deep in this analyzation, but

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Speaker 2: there are some advantage here we're going to talk about.

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Speaker 2: Really excited to join you.

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Speaker 1: You know, I got your picks beforehand, as I as

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Speaker 1: I always tell our audience, and I was annoyed at

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Speaker 1: you because you took a few games that I wanted.

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Speaker 1: But it's fine. It's good that we're on the same side,

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Speaker 1: although I am on the different side of one of you.

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Speaker 1: I We're going to go through last week very briefly

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Speaker 1: with our guests. But this was annoying because it was

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Speaker 1: my first really bad week where I went owing three.

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Speaker 1: The annoying part is Mike is again on the betting

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Speaker 1: pros app which you know, I know you use obviously

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Speaker 1: run the experts. We have a leader board and we

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Speaker 1: sort of went and I was eight and three against

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Speaker 1: the spread last week, and unfortunately the ones I gave

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Speaker 1: out are the losers here. Sorry, I apologize you. Though

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Speaker 1: Good Star were second. You had a perfect week. There

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Speaker 1: only four picks, but four and O what were you

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Speaker 1: on last week? Out of curiousity? Do you remember the

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Speaker 1: picks that you got right? Oh?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know it was New England right away. I

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Speaker 2: liked Belichick at home. Cleveland just seemed to be limping

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Speaker 2: in and everyone was kind of over the top. There.

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Speaker 2: There were so many different games that I felt were interesting.

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Speaker 2: The Cowboy game, it was just a gut feel. You know,

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Speaker 2: Atlanta had played well and I thought the Cowboys are

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Speaker 2: really good. We're going to talk about them later. Were

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Speaker 2: Kansas City. So laying the points to me was no problem.

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Speaker 2: It was a good week in It was one of

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Speaker 2: those no sweats right away. The one that was a

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Speaker 2: little close, which I was happy about was the Saints. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: got down to two and a half and you know,

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Speaker 2: they limped to the finish line. But how many times

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Speaker 2: have we lost one at the end, So I'll take

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Speaker 2: it there. It was a perfect week, you know, onto

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Speaker 2: this week, but yeah, it was fun.

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Speaker 1: I was certainly rooting for the Saints to not convert

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Speaker 1: the point I would just take. I would take the

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Speaker 1: two and a half, right, Yeah, I was on that

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Speaker 1: as well. Tough game here. Maybe we'll talk about the

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Speaker 1: Titans a little bit later, but before we get into it,

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Speaker 1: you know, you guys know what we're gonna do. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna give our three best bets. We'll run through all

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Speaker 1: the spreads just in case. We have a lien, which

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Speaker 1: I've talked to Mike a little bit. We both have

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Speaker 1: a lien in a certain game that neither one of

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Speaker 1: us has picked. But let me remind you first about

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Speaker 1: the latest offer from bet MGM bet new customers using

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Speaker 1: the code Juice one hundred. If you bet on any

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Speaker 1: NFL game, any team you bet ten dollars to win

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars. It's a team you bet on scores

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Speaker 1: a touchdown, simple as that that's almost certainly going to

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Speaker 1: happen again. Code Juice one hundred that is available in

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C, Arizona, and Wyoming. So I will quickly run

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Speaker 1: through last week. As I said, our guest Ben Steve

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Speaker 1: had the Saints get in two and a half, which

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Speaker 1: is again I said last week another pick that I

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Speaker 1: liked and I was on as well. He also hit

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Speaker 1: on the Bills and the Jets over forty eight points.

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Speaker 1: So his third one was a player prop that he

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Speaker 1: really liked, which was Derek Carr over pass attempts. No,

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Speaker 1: the line wasn't actually out when we did it, so

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Speaker 1: I basically had him give me the line where he

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Speaker 1: would go. He said if it was over thirty five

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Speaker 1: and a half, he wouldn't take it, but he would

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Speaker 1: take it anything under. The line turned out to be

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Speaker 1: thirty six and a half, so I'm going to give

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Speaker 1: him pass. Even though went under it was only thirty

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Speaker 1: five he would have technically missed, but he did say,

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Speaker 1: don't bet it if it was over thirty five and

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Speaker 1: a half, So I'm going to give him a two

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Speaker 1: to zero and whatever, And I went out in three.

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Speaker 1: I was on the other side of that Patriots game.

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Speaker 1: I really thought the Browns were going to be able

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Speaker 1: to take care of business there. I have not had

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Speaker 1: a good beat on the Patriots this year. I fully

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Speaker 1: admit that, alside the under in that game, which the

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Speaker 1: Patriots basically took care of themselves. And I missed on

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks getting three and a half from the Packers.

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Speaker 1: It's funny because the defense sort of played and Rogers

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Speaker 1: was a little rusty. I just don't think I factored

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Speaker 1: in just quite how rough the russ would have been.

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Speaker 1: So that's bad. We're gonna bounce back this week sixteen

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Speaker 1: and fourteen now in the season. All right, Mike, we

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Speaker 1: can go with you. I will give out the betting

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Speaker 1: pros consensus lines. Again a betting pros, we give out

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Speaker 1: the lines from basically every single book, so you can

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Speaker 1: see generally where you want to attack. I always have

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Speaker 1: to bet DraftKings, so that's where I have in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 1: But you can bet obviously whatever your book is. But

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Speaker 1: there is a consensus line based on all of the books.

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Speaker 1: And again I mentioned the app that Mike and I

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Speaker 1: you know, had good weeks last week. Mike was the

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Speaker 1: second most accurate expert here against the spread in terms

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Speaker 1: of well, obviously it was perfect, but in units. In

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Speaker 1: terms of units one I was eleventh. So you can

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Speaker 1: make your own pixel also on the betting pros app

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Speaker 1: and you can see where you stand. All right, Mike,

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Speaker 1: begin your first pick, sir.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to start right off the bat with the

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Speaker 2: one that I've targeted almost all year, dan, and that's

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Speaker 2: the Vikings. I believe getting two and a half. I

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Speaker 2: love the Vikings in this spot. They are third in

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Speaker 2: past defense d DVOA and they were great against the

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Speaker 2: Chargers on the road. That was a sharp game last week.

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Speaker 2: People love the Vikings and really as Sharps did, but

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Speaker 2: the public like the Chargers even though they have injuries,

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Speaker 2: even though Danielle Hunter is out. Last week two sacks, interception,

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Speaker 2: six QB hits against a very good offensive line on

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Speaker 2: the Chargers and an explosive passing attack. Vikings are five

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Speaker 2: to three and one last nine games against Green Bay,

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Speaker 2: including last year when they won twenty eight to twenty

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Speaker 2: two at Green Bay. In that game, Rogers DeVante Adams

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Speaker 2: three touchdowns together. Packers still lost no Aaron Jones this

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Speaker 2: week and the Packers defense has been playing better, but

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Speaker 2: they do have injuries, Zadaris Smith's been out of course,

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Speaker 2: jyr Alexander's on ir no Merciless and then of course

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Speaker 2: on offense no Aaron Jones, Robert Tunyan, which kills them

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Speaker 2: in the red zone. Vikings may even get better in

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Speaker 2: their secondary. Their secondary has been playing well, but they

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Speaker 2: had injuries. Patrick Peterson should be back, Harrison Smith. Public's

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Speaker 2: gonna hammer green Bay like they always do with the

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Speaker 2: Packers and the Cowboys. I like it at two and

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Speaker 2: a half. There's a way to get to three. I would.

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Speaker 2: I like this Vikings offense, which has been able to

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Speaker 2: put up points. Last year, Dalvin Cook hammered the Packers

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Speaker 2: in Green Bay. That's how they won that game. Right now,

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Speaker 2: you're looking at the majority of bets end money on

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Speaker 2: the Packers, So of course, being a contrarian always good

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Speaker 2: in the betting world. I want the Vikings. I may

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Speaker 2: invested in them. I had them as a future to

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Speaker 2: win the division at plus three point fifty. Can they

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Speaker 2: get there? It seems like they can't, but if they

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Speaker 2: sweep the Packers, they'd be real close. I think they

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Speaker 2: start here like the Vikings as a home underdog here

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Speaker 2: getting a couple points against Rogers and the Packers. Rogers

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Speaker 2: still coming out of COVID, not sure how he's gonna be,

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Speaker 2: and he's missing a lot of weapons.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is an interesting one, Mike, because I do

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Speaker 1: think that these teams really, when you just take a

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Speaker 1: step back and you take a look, they're very even,

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Speaker 1: like they're both equal teams essentially. I know, obviously the

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Speaker 1: Records eight and two, the Vikings four and five, but

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Speaker 1: the Vikings, man, like, you know, they show up some

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Speaker 1: of these games and they look like they might be

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Speaker 1: one of the best teams in football. Games are like,

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Speaker 1: oh god, I can't even I can't even watch this

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Speaker 1: at this point. This is obviously a divisional game. It's

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Speaker 1: home for the Viking, so it's gonna be good. What's

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Speaker 1: interesting is you make the good point of the fact

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Speaker 1: that the public is hitting the Packers in this game,

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Speaker 1: and the line is moving in the other direction right

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Speaker 1: like the line is slowly coming down. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of two's out there. There are some one and a

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Speaker 1: half out there right now, so it's moving in the

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Speaker 1: other direction, which shows you sort of how the books

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Speaker 1: and how the sharps generally think of it. I'm with

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Speaker 1: you in this pick. It was one of the ones, Mike,

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Speaker 1: when you picked it, I said it was on my list, right,

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Speaker 1: it was on my list of potentials. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if I could have done it, mainly just because I've

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Speaker 1: seen Kirk Cousins in the spot too many times where

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Speaker 1: it's like, this is your spot, man, this should be it,

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Speaker 1: this is the game, and he doesn't come through. I

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Speaker 1: do think that the loss of Aaron Jones is bigger

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Speaker 1: than people are giving it credit for, right because of

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Speaker 1: the fact that aj Dillon looks so good as a

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Speaker 1: running back, but Dylan is not the same caliber of

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Speaker 1: blocker in terms of pass protection or anything like that.

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Speaker 1: He's not the same as a pass catch, although he's

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Speaker 1: been more involved this whole year than I expected him

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Speaker 1: to be in that you know at all, just give

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Speaker 1: them what we saw in college. But it's a big

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Speaker 1: loss here for it, and as the Vikings defense does

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Speaker 1: get healthier, as they gel a little more, I think

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Speaker 1: you're on the right side. I don't know what would

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Speaker 1: have been one of my picks, but I think you're

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Speaker 1: on the right side.

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Speaker 2: So and Dan, how about the fact that, remember, Minnesota

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Speaker 2: should have beat Arizona earlier in the year. They did

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Speaker 2: s Field go on the road and then both teams

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Speaker 2: have a common opponent against the Bengals. Vikings lost Week

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Speaker 2: one on a last second field goal by the Bengals.

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Speaker 2: Packers should have lost at the Bengals, but no one

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Speaker 2: can make a field goal in overtime for the longest time. So,

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Speaker 2: like you said, I think they're very very close teams.

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Speaker 2: Vikings home. Give me a couple points, I'll take it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Vikings really should be six and three. I

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Speaker 1: mean if they played sort of where they are and

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Speaker 1: they can win any game, but they can also come

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Speaker 1: out and you can be like, what is happening right,

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Speaker 1: Like what is this game? So we'll have to see,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, this is a pretty evenly matched game. You

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Speaker 1: got a home team getting some points. I'm definitely on

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Speaker 1: the same side. It's not one of my picks though,

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Speaker 1: and I haven't bet it, but I would go that way.

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Speaker 1: All right, Mike, Let's start with the game that you

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Speaker 1: and I talked about that found interesting here, and it's

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Speaker 1: the quote unquote sharp Side as we had talked about,

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Speaker 1: and it's the Raiders plus one at home against the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: I talked about this on Monday. We do the look

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Speaker 1: Ahead Lines podcast, which I like the spot for the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Our guests liked it for the Bengals, but I liked

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Speaker 1: it for the Raiders, then I like it for now.

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Speaker 1: Now I don't love the Raiders. Is much more of

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Speaker 1: a fade of the Bengals, but I do think that's

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Speaker 1: a pretty decent spot for them here they've got two

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Speaker 1: bad losses in a row, right, Like, obviously you've got

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Speaker 1: the Giants and they're embarrassed by the Chiefs. But this

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Speaker 1: is this is basically it is, you got to take

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Speaker 1: a stand right now if you're the Raiders and you

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Speaker 1: have any sort of semblance of playoff hopes or anything

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Speaker 1: like that to the next three games are the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: and the Cowboys. Both of those games are on the road,

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Speaker 1: So you lose this one, your season might as well

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Speaker 1: just basically be over. So I think you're gonna get

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Speaker 1: a spurited effort here on both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 1: It's a home game, crowd's going to be into it,

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Speaker 1: so that's where it is. But this is much more

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Speaker 1: of a fade of the Bengals. Like people love the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Early on, it was very exciting, got the young kids here,

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Speaker 1: with Jamar Chase amazing. Joe Burrow has looked great for

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Speaker 1: the most part, as he came back earlier, sort of

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Speaker 1: rounded into formal little earlier than I expected. But they

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Speaker 1: are twenty fifth in overall DVOA. Like I mean, DVA

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Speaker 1: is not everything, but that sort of gives you a

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Speaker 1: good sense of what they actually are as a team.

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Speaker 1: They're coming off losses to the Jets and the Browns,

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Speaker 1: and I know they're coming off of bye, but the

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Speaker 1: buy hasn't really met that much when you're looking at

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Speaker 1: teams covering or not covering against spread here off the

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Speaker 1: by this year in particular, and I really don't trust

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Speaker 1: Zach Taylor on the road. It's a young team, it's

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Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. That always makes me a little nervous

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Speaker 1: for the Raiders offense. The los anderw Ruggs is big,

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Speaker 1: but I do think I mean, Deshaun Jackson obviously had

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Speaker 1: that big fumble, but he played nine snaps last week.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna play a little bit more this week. I

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Speaker 1: think that's going to be able to help them do

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Speaker 1: what they need to do, which is stretch the field

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Speaker 1: a lot more to open up the underneath routes for

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Speaker 1: hunter renfro for Darren Waller. We saw Brian Edwards get

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Speaker 1: a little more involved, and the loss of alec Engold

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Speaker 1: is bad. I mean, he's he's an important part. Actually,

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Speaker 1: they're running in. Their running game has struggled, but it's

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Speaker 1: just a bounce back spot. And there are two things

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Speaker 1: when I looked at sort of what are we going

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Speaker 1: to see here from the defense, which isn't isn't that

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Speaker 1: great or anything like that, versus the Bengals offense again,

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Speaker 1: which I just I never feel like it's really firing

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Speaker 1: on all cylinders. The first thing that I saw is

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Speaker 1: that the Raiders have a very good pass rush. Okay,

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Speaker 1: now they didn't get any sacks against Patrick Mahomes, but

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Speaker 1: this was just that was just the spot where I

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Speaker 1: think the Chiefs were like, Okay, we've got it. Now,

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Speaker 1: we're going to do a lot of quick players. We're

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Speaker 1: going to get it out. The Raiders ranked ninth in

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Speaker 1: pressure rate on the year. That's a twenty six percent,

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Speaker 1: and again they just had the Chiefs where they didn't

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Speaker 1: get a lot of pressure. But they do that despite

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Speaker 1: the fact that they blitz at the lowest clip in

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Speaker 1: the league, right thirteen point eight percent. By far the

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Speaker 1: lowest in the league. They don't blitz, but they do

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Speaker 1: get pressure with Max Crosby and everything. So the Bengals

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Speaker 1: give up a ton of sacks. So it's just kind

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Speaker 1: of a bad matchup when you can get pressure on

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Speaker 1: any young quarterback here without blitzing. And the second is

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Speaker 1: that the Raiders, you know, they play a lot of

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Speaker 1: cover three here, they play a lot of zone. You

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Speaker 1: look at how Burrow performs, He's much better against defenses

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Speaker 1: I play man rather than zone. So I think this

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Speaker 1: is really just the spot. I mean, I hate to

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Speaker 1: say too many good things about the Raiders because I'm

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Speaker 1: not buying the Raiders necessarily, but I'm much more selling

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Speaker 1: the Bengals, even coming off a buye. I just don't

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Speaker 1: believe in the team coming into Vegas. I think they struggle.

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Speaker 1: It's basically a pick them game. I will take the

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Speaker 1: home team, So give me the Raiders here getting one.

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Speaker 1: I know we talked about a little bit earlier, Mike

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Speaker 1: how you said it's probably the sharp side of it,

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Speaker 1: but you know, obviously the public probably is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a little more Oncensey, Right, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly right. And the sharp side last week like

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Speaker 2: I mentioned, was the Vikings the line. What you're saying,

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Speaker 2: why is the public one way and the money's going

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Speaker 2: the other way? This is what you have with the

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Speaker 2: Raiders here. Let's not forget Zach Taylor for bet Labs

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Speaker 2: four fifteen and one against the spread on the road. Okay,

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Speaker 2: And you see that tweet he had out the other

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Speaker 2: day about when he goes he loves to play roulette.

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Speaker 2: He loves to play roulette. I jokingly put out, give

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Speaker 2: you the Raiders here. He's a little too focused on gambling.

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Speaker 2: But Derek Carr has not typically been a turnover machine.

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Speaker 2: He's a very safe quarterback. He's had some bad turnovers.

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Speaker 2: I think last week was just spot against the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: that it got out of hand. But they have played

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Speaker 2: very well at home, They've competed, and remember against the

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Speaker 2: Ravens earlier this year. I think the Raiders are a

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Speaker 2: better team overall. People are gonna side with the Bengals

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Speaker 2: because of the explosive offense, and like you said, Vegas

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Speaker 2: has adjusted to teams coming off of bye and even

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Speaker 2: with that adjustment, we're looking at the Raiders here only

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Speaker 2: being a one point dog. So I'm with you. I

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Speaker 2: think it's the sharp side this week Vegas and the

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Speaker 2: Raiders here against the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to put too much into the young

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Speaker 1: team traveling out to Vegas to sort of play, but

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Speaker 1: I it does factor in to me. Like you got

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Speaker 1: a veteran team like Mahomes, fine, like the Chiefs, whatever,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter, get a young team like this

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Speaker 1: coming out to Vegas. I don't think it's It's not

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Speaker 1: like a huge thing, but it certainly is something that

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Speaker 1: I think can be distracting a little bit and can

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Speaker 1: factor in. But again, this spot the Raiders if they

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Speaker 1: need this game, like this is their season essentially, and

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Speaker 1: they're a better team I think than they've showed the

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. So all right, go to your

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Speaker 1: second pick, Mike, what do you have?

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Speaker 2: Give me the Seahawks. I love to fade the knee

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Speaker 2: jerk reaction Dan. Last week's lost to Green Bay, Russell

333
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Speaker 2: Wilson didn't look good, didn't have touch on the deep ball. Well,

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Speaker 2: let's look at this a little deeper. They held the

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Speaker 2: Packers with Aaron Rodgers at home to seventeen points. Wilson

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Speaker 2: had an interception and the end zone really didn't play well.

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Speaker 2: The Seahawks defense has actually been improving throughout the year.

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Speaker 2: Let's remember that Seattle with the twelfth man at home,

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Speaker 2: which they didn't have last year, always really tough per

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Speaker 2: bet Labs, twenty four to twelve and six is what

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Speaker 2: Pete Carroll is in his career against the spread. Coming

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Speaker 2: off a loss. Seahawks had a brutal schedule, but they

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Speaker 2: battled through it. With Geno Smith lost to the Rams,

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Speaker 2: that's the game Wilson got hurt. Steelers three point loss.

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Speaker 2: That was with Gino. Lost to the Saints by three

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Speaker 2: at home. That was with Gino. Kyler Murray is very

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Speaker 2: up in the air and Dan. When he doesn't run,

348
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Speaker 2: he is not the same quarterback and the Cardinals don't

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Speaker 2: win at the same rate. If he doesn't run for

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Speaker 2: at least twenty yards, he averages eight fewer Fantasy points

351
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Speaker 2: per game, and in the games that he doesn't hit twenty,

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Speaker 2: he usually has hit over his career eight, which means

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Speaker 2: when he's limited, he's very, very limited. He is not

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Speaker 2: a prolific pocket passer. He's best when he's running outside

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Speaker 2: of the tackles trying to create on his own. DeAndre

356
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Speaker 2: Hopkins has been hurt all season long. They don't have

357
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Speaker 2: Chase Edmonds. Seattle needs this game badly. And look, don't

358
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Speaker 2: forget that the Seahawks are still in the playoff race.

359
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Speaker 2: They're only three and six. The Panthers are in and

360
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Speaker 2: they're five and five. So you're telling me now after

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Speaker 2: nine games they're out of the playoff race. They are

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Speaker 2: at home, their schedule is getting better. Division games are

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Speaker 2: always close. If Murray doesn't play, I'm gonna love it.

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Speaker 2: Like last week, I grib Carolina right away getting ten

365
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Speaker 2: and a half, we heard no Murray. It got down

366
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Speaker 2: to six. In this case, this could easily flip on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: Arizona has their by next week. I don't know why

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Speaker 2: you'd rush Murray back, and if it's still uncertain at

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Speaker 2: this point, he's probably not healthy, which in his career

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Speaker 2: means he hasn't always played well. I love Seattle as

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Speaker 2: a home dog here getting two and a half, and

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Speaker 2: I think Russ starts to cook again because the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: need to make a playoff push.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so there are a couple of things. One is,

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Speaker 1: just like you said, it is moving a little bit

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Speaker 1: to two now, so it's bouncing back and forth between

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Speaker 1: two and two and a half. I think you're on

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Speaker 1: the right side of this. I do not expect Kyler

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Speaker 1: Murray to play. I understand he's back in practice. But

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Speaker 1: if you are the Cardinals, you have a buy next week,

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Speaker 1: like you it's just not worth it, Like you have

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Speaker 1: long term goals here, right, all right, you gotta be

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Speaker 1: careful with this. But even if he plays, Mike, as

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Speaker 1: you said, he is going to be limited. Like there,

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Speaker 1: he's not coming back in one hundred percent. He's not

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Speaker 1: going to run as much. That is a huge, huge

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Speaker 1: thing for Kyler Murray and we saw last year, so

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Speaker 1: it's something that is going to affect them. You talked

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Speaker 1: about the Seahawks. This is talked about a little bit

390
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Speaker 1: with the Raiders. This is a last stand a little

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Speaker 1: bit with the Seahawks, because if you go to three

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Speaker 1: and seven, then it's tough, right then is really tough.

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Speaker 1: But you win this game. You mentioned it. They out Washington,

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Speaker 1: they have the Texans, they have the Bears, they have

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Speaker 1: the Lions. They've got a lot of really winnable games here.

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Speaker 1: You win this game and suddenly like that's Evans spot,

397
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Speaker 1: that's right there for you. I wonder though, and I

398
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Speaker 1: was on the Seahawks last week thinking that Wilson would

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Speaker 1: be okay. I mean, if Wilson plays anything like what

400
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Speaker 1: he played last week, it's gonna be tough for them

401
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Speaker 1: to be. You know, the Jets at this point, are

402
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Speaker 1: you thinking that this was really just a man really

403
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Speaker 1: rusty had to get used to. It should be closer

404
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Speaker 1: to the rest that we see that we expected to

405
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Speaker 1: see in this game.

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Speaker 2: Totally agree. Remember those videos of him going through plays

407
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Speaker 2: on his own with with you know, with no one

408
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Speaker 2: around in pregame when he had the injury. No one

409
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Speaker 2: works harder than this guy. I think it was a

410
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:33,960
Speaker 2: bad mix. I think it was the cold it was

411
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Speaker 2: in Green Bay. The touch was gone. It will come back.

412
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Speaker 2: Chris Carson should be activated for this game. He almost

413
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Speaker 2: was last week and he should be for this game.

414
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Speaker 2: And look, if you look at Arizona, they switched to

415
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Speaker 2: Colt McCoy late in the week against San Francisco. I

416
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Speaker 2: really believe that San Francisco was preparing for Kyler Murray

417
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,040
Speaker 2: and got all thrown off. Last week. Carolina prepared for

418
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Speaker 2: Colt McCoy, and you saw what happens if they go

419
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Speaker 2: with Colt McCoy. Again not going to go. Well, that's

420
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Speaker 2: why he's a backup quarterback. So in some ways Arizona

421
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Speaker 2: wants Murray to play because they know what they have

422
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Speaker 2: in McCoy. But Murray is still going to be compromised,

423
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Speaker 2: and you have your buy. I think it's a mess,

424
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Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury, I'm not a fan of that offense is

425
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,360
Speaker 2: not explosive. They've been efficient, and they really have benefited

426
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Speaker 2: from some early game turnovers. Even again San Francisco. Kittle

427
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:24,520
Speaker 2: makes a catch, he fumbles, they score touchdown. Ayuk makes

428
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Speaker 2: a catch, he fumbles, They score touchdown. As long as

429
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,879
Speaker 2: Seattle doesn't turn this ball over, I think they control

430
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 2: this game with the defense. And I don't even know

431
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,439
Speaker 2: if Russ has to have three hundred yards, he just

432
00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:35,640
Speaker 2: has to be solid because at home they have such

433
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 2: an advantage.

434
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:38,320
Speaker 1: By the way, I mean you did bringing up the

435
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,679
Speaker 1: defense for Seattle, which was not a plus necessarily early on,

436
00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,520
Speaker 1: has played so much better of late that it's now

437
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 1: something again at home something. It's a positive unit basically

438
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 1: at this point. So yeah, I'm with you. This was

439
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 1: a game I would have taken Mike for sure. As

440
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 1: you know, I'm going to let you have it, which

441
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,360
Speaker 1: is fine, You're quite welcome. You are the gutch. Instead,

442
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 1: I'm going to game that. When I first looked at

443
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:03,400
Speaker 1: I said, I want no part of this game other

444
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,280
Speaker 1: than to have some popcorn and watch. And instead, when

445
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 1: I dug into it, I said, okay, you know what,

446
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Chiefs laying under a field

447
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,480
Speaker 1: goal of two and a half against the Cowboys. And

448
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 1: this line hasn't moved all week. All these lines were

449
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:16,920
Speaker 1: talking about like they've all had a little bit of

450
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 1: movement one way or another, blah blah. This one just

451
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 1: stuck two and a half. I looked at this game, Mike,

452
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,640
Speaker 1: and I was going through it a little bit. Let's

453
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,920
Speaker 1: start with just historically, this is a spot where you

454
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 1: back Mahomes and the Chiefs. It's obviously a home field advantage.

455
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 1: It's a big one. We know always about how like Man,

456
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 1: the Chiefs don't cover, the Chiefs uncover, the Chiefs uncovered.

457
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:42,120
Speaker 1: Chiefs don't cover because they're always pretty significant favorites. Right

458
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 1: when they are a dog which is rare, or a

459
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,600
Speaker 1: short home favorite, it's seventy seven percent of the time

460
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 1: where Mahomes will cover. So just historically speaking, put out

461
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 1: anything else. This is a good spot for homes. You

462
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 1: saw the offensive joshuents last week, right, You figured we

463
00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,880
Speaker 1: would eventually see them. I didn't know when we would

464
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,200
Speaker 1: see them. We finally did see them, and you look

465
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 1: at their offense. Their offense has been broken for whatever.

466
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 1: Blah blah blah blah. The Chiefs are second behind the

467
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,879
Speaker 1: Bucks in EPA per play offensively, And just to explain

468
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 1: what that means to everybody, EPA is essentially expected points added.

469
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 1: That's basically how well a team performs relative to what

470
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,920
Speaker 1: the expectations would be. Uh. They're again behind only the Bucks.

471
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 1: As I said, they're better than the Bills, the Cardinals,

472
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 1: the Rams like. Their offense looks terrible and looks broken,

473
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 1: but it's still basically one of the truly elite units

474
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 1: in the NFL. They're first in success rate fifty one

475
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: point seven percent. That's basically how efficient your offense is

476
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 1: within the context of the play. How about the defense.

477
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 1: That's been the big deal right there. It's been much

478
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: maligned all year. Everybody hates the defense. It's been terrible,

479
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 1: one of the worst defenses in the league. That's true,

480
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 1: but not as much lately, right they're playing a little

481
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,159
Speaker 1: better lately. They've allowed sixteen points per game over the

482
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 1: last five. Yes, they've had some soft matchups the Giants,

483
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 1: the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, of course, but we didn't

484
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 1: talk about that much when we were looking at their

485
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,479
Speaker 1: defense earlier on the season. It's been injured like throughout

486
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 1: the year. It's been injured. Not one guy, but it's

487
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 1: like every week they had a different guy who was

488
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: just missing. Now everyone is healthy last couple of games,

489
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 1: and they've been playing a lot better. Willie Gays back,

490
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,400
Speaker 1: he is playing well. Lajerius Sneed is playing very well.

491
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 1: They added Melvin Ingram, and they've gotten a lot more

492
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,679
Speaker 1: pressure now when you look at them over the last

493
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 1: four weeks, they're actually ninth overall in pressure rate on

494
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 1: the season mentioned DPA per play. Offensively, they're tenth defensively

495
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 1: over the last three games, all right, so they have

496
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 1: been better for sure defensively. Now. The Cowboys are great.

497
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 1: It's a great team, but they're not as good defensively

498
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 1: as everybody sort of wants or expects them to be.

499
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 1: They've done a good job of getting pressure for most

500
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,439
Speaker 1: of the season, even though they haven't had DeMarcus Lawrence,

501
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,439
Speaker 1: but now they're without Randy Gregory's on ir here excuse

502
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 1: me with the calf injury. He led the team with

503
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 1: twenty quarterback pressure, so it is a big deal in

504
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 1: terms of them being able to get pressure. Defense is good,

505
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 1: but it's much more about them being opportunistic and forcing turno.

506
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 1: They take chances, and when you take chances against the Chiefs,

507
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 1: I think that that's just something that's gonna burn you eventually.

508
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 1: And offensively, they are great, but they've been home forever. Okay,

509
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 1: they've been home. They opened two games on the road,

510
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: so they've been home five of their last seven games.

511
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 1: They're a different team on the road, not nearly as good.

512
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 1: Tyron Smith may still miss this game. Seee Lambs a

513
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 1: little banged up. I think you know, Kansas City is

514
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: gonna get some pressure here again, just based on how

515
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 1: much they've been getting pressure lately. I think that's gonna

516
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 1: force back into just enough mistakes. I think the Chiefs

517
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 1: win this game. If you're giving it to me under

518
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: a field goal at home in Arrowhead, I'm taking the leap, Mike.

519
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on it.

520
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 2: Let's just go with regression. Dan Dallas is eight to

521
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 2: one against the spread. They're four to zero against the

522
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 2: spread on the road. I mean these lines get sharper

523
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: as the year goes on. Do you really think the

524
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 2: Cowboys are gonna go undefeated against the spread on the road.

525
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 2: I love how this number is staying under three if

526
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 2: you like Kansas City. Kansas City three and seven against

527
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 2: the spread, zero and five against the spread at home.

528
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 2: So if you just want to go from a regression standpoint,

529
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: that's the play. I think Kansas City had turned a

530
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,199
Speaker 2: corner against the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes has been off on

531
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 2: his deep passes. He missed Tyreek Hill down the sideline

532
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 2: last game. He missed Mcole Harbon in.

533
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: The end zone.

534
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 2: But what have they been doing to compensate? They're getting

535
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 2: more short quick hitters. Who saw Byron Pringle involved last week.

536
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 2: The Chiefs defense is getting better. I think the Cowboys legit.

537
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 2: I think they're a Super Bowl contender. But Kansas City

538
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 2: at home and arrowhead Andy Reid starting to figure it out.

539
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,640
Speaker 2: Melvin Ingram really under the radar trade Pittsburgh to Kansas City.

540
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: He played big, had a couple of big sticks last

541
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 2: week as well against the Raiders. I am on the

542
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 2: side with you as the Chiefs just banking on some regression.

543
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 2: I mean, if you think the Cowboys are gonna go

544
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,440
Speaker 2: undefeated against a spread on the road and the Chiefs

545
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 2: are gonna go winless against the spread at home, then fine,

546
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 2: I gets you back the Cowboys here, but I'm not

547
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 2: I like the two and a half. It keeps in

548
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 2: our number three. I'm with you on Kansas City.

549
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 1: And we didn't really talk about move and Ingram that

550
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: much because he wasn't playing that much with the Steelers

551
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 1: like they were just like, I'm sorry, you can't crack

552
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 1: the depth chart. But he has been very good since

553
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,360
Speaker 1: he's been with the Chiefs, and I really do think

554
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 1: could change it. And what the Chiefs finally is they

555
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 1: didn't condunked a little bit more to open up the

556
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: bigger play, which is what you wanted. I don't know

557
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: if Clyde Edwards Hilira is gonna come back this week, hopefully,

558
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: but Andy Reid is putting, you know, he's boo pooing

559
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 1: a little bit. But Daryl William has been very capable,

560
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: especially as a pass catcher. So I just think, man

561
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 1: in this it's gonna be a great game. I can't

562
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: wait to watch it. Almost am sad to gonna have

563
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: some action on it. But still I think if you

564
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 1: were underfield goal and again, I don't think it moves.

565
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: I think we are locked in right here at two

566
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 1: and a half. We have been all week. I'm gonna

567
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: go with the Chiefs to win it. Last pick, Mike,

568
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 1: go for it.

569
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 2: Listen. If it ain't broke, Dan, don't fix it. Mike

570
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 2: Tomlin on the ru right. Tomlin as an underdog has

571
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 2: been an incredible bet so far. He gets the team ready,

572
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 2: he gets them fired up. They are seventeen and four,

573
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 2: that's eighty one percent against the spread the Steelers with

574
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 2: Tomlin as an underdog since twenty eighteen. Since September of

575
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:55,199
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, they are twelve and three against the spread

576
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 2: as an underdog as a favorite. And I bet it

577
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 2: last week and it continued on. They have lost their

578
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 2: last eight games against the spread. They're oh at eight

579
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 2: when they are favorite. So now we're down on Pittsburgh.

580
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 2: They tied Detroit at home. Everyone's frustrated. There's injuries there.

581
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: We're worried about TJ watatt Is Roethlisberger going to play.

582
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 2: This is where Tomlin is superior. They're going on the road.

583
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 2: They're playing a Charger team that is dead last in

584
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 2: rush defense. DVOA, dead last. Najay Harris, who's been fantastic

585
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 2: the volume, has played really, really well. Another under the

586
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 2: radar point. Last week, Roethlisberger was announced out on Saturday,

587
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 2: which means to me that all week long, Pittsburgh really

588
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 2: didn't prepare Mason Rudolph. He was kind of thrown in

589
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 2: last minute. Mason Rudolph is very capable in these spots.

590
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 2: I think back to an old game when Steelers played

591
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 2: the Chargers. I think it was My Night Football where

592
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,199
Speaker 2: Michael Vick was the quarterback because Roethlisberger was out, and

593
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 2: the Steelers won that game at the very end where

594
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 2: Leaveon Bell got into the end zone. I love Pittsburgh here.

595
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 2: It's around five and a half. I would love it

596
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 2: even more if they announced that Mason Rudolph is starting,

597
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 2: because you know what will happen. The line will go

598
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 2: in the other direction. We'll get six six and a half.

599
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 2: I'm fine with it. They had a full week of practice.

600
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 2: No one believes in us. I know there's injuries for

601
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: the Steelers, there's also injuries for the Chargers. No Joey Bosa.

602
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 2: Mike Williams has been really struggling. I think in fantasy

603
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 2: he was the wide receiver too for the first five

604
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 2: weeks and the last five weeks he's been the wide

605
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 2: receiver eighty so he's struggling as well. Heavy dose of

606
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 2: Naj Harris. The Steelers can absolutely win this game, and

607
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: it's way too many points. Sometimes you want to follow

608
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,919
Speaker 2: a trend, sometimes you don't. In this case, I am

609
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 2: sticking with it. Tomlin is great in these spots. The

610
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 2: Steelers absolutely think they can win the division. We're hearing

611
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson maybe out against the Bears, so they need

612
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: this game. They're angry, they're focused, and the trend works

613
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 2: in our favor. I will take the Steelers and the points,

614
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 2: and I'll take it. Whether it's Ben who should be

615
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 2: back or Mason Rudolph doesn't matter to me.

616
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was the question whether or not you felt

617
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: the same. Look. I talk about it almost every week,

618
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 1: like put everything else aside. There are Tomlin spots where

619
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,719
Speaker 1: you know what's gonna happen. You don't back them as

620
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: a large favorite. You almost always back him as an underdog,

621
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 1: a road underdog for chore, but any underdog, he just

622
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: gets his guys up, man like, right, like, this is

623
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 1: what happens every week. And you make a great point,

624
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: by the way, Ben's self reported symptoms last week on Saturday, right,

625
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: so you're right, they went. And it's not like Mason

626
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 1: Rodolff's you know, been that impressive generally speaking when he's played.

627
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,919
Speaker 1: But regardless, it's a big deal when you're like on Saturday,

628
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: when you haven't had any chance to practice, then suddenly

629
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: a guy's like, oh you're starting right now. It's as

630
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: big also, and all the rain and everything like that,

631
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 1: and just how bad that was. This is a spot.

632
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: They're embarrassed the fact that they tied the Lions and

633
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 1: everything like that. Yeah, man, it's a spot. And I

634
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 1: do think that the Chargers are overrated right now, and

635
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:54,959
Speaker 1: I don't. It's six and a half by the way,

636
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: to a lot of books, so it's five and a half,

637
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 1: six and a half, consensus line five and a half.

638
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, man, I worry a little bit about the

639
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: Charges justin Herbert has you know, their metrics that suggest

640
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 1: that he's been better than he's played. But I do

641
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 1: think that he's struggling a little bit with this offense,

642
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: which is not all that unexpected. So I like this spot.

643
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: This is a good one for you. Again, probably wouldn't

644
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: have been one of my picks, but I did like

645
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 1: it a lot. I'd rather get uglier, though, Mike. I'd

646
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 1: rather get really ugly. Okay, I'd rather get Texans getting

647
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: ten from the Titans ugly. Let's get really now. I

648
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 1: want this at ten and a half. Okay, our sponsors,

649
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,439
Speaker 1: bet MGM, if you can bet on BETMGM, do it

650
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 1: for this game because it's ten and a half. But

651
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: the majority of books are at ten. Mike, there's no

652
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: way the Titans are as good as this eight and

653
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: two number one seen the AFC. Right, Like, put aside

654
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: before I get into it. Do you you think the

655
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: Titans are the best team in the AFC?

656
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 2: Mike, No, I do not, especially not without Derrick Henry.

657
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 1: No. I mean, right, and you look by the way,

658
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: you're like, wow, they continue to win. They're well coached,

659
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: but they have gotten breaks here and you look at

660
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: what their offense is done without Derrick Henry is not good.

661
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,719
Speaker 1: Like the fact that they beat the Rams, I mean

662
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 1: they had the pick six they didn't gain a ton

663
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 1: of yards on offense or anything like that. I get

664
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 1: that they've beaten everyone, the Chiefs, the Bills, the Colts,

665
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 1: the Rams, but you can have these to to too

666
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: games with these huge teams like this every single week

667
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: and just not eventually have some sort of letdown. I'm

668
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: not picking the Texans to win, let's make it clear,

669
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: but this is a letdown spot for them. The Titans

670
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 1: are eighteenth overall in DVOA, eighteenth, like a middle of

671
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: the road team. They're down Dereck Henry, as we just said,

672
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 1: they're down Julio Jones. And you look at how they

673
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: play under Mike Rabel. They play to the level of

674
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 1: competition a little bit. They play up when they've got

675
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 1: the really good teams, they play down when they've got

676
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: the bad teams. The offense, again, has not really been

677
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: good without Derek Henry right now, they haven't gained a

678
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 1: ton of yards. It's just been a lot of short fields,

679
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: a lot of turnovers. The Texans are terrible. I'm not

680
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: defending the Texans anyway, shape or fork, but I do

681
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: think that it should be a different team with Tarni

682
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 1: Taylor and we're like whoa. What about You know when

683
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 1: before the bye, Torod Taylor came back looked like maybe

684
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 1: the worst quarterback in football. We see rust, guys, Okay,

685
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: we saw it with Russell Wilson. We didn't saw with

686
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers sort of not practicing for ten days stepping

687
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: back in. We took for granted. I think that Taylor

688
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 1: was going to be able to step up against an

689
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 1: improving Dolphins defenses. I think we are now all understanding,

690
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: like he turned the ball over a million times, He's

691
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: not going to do that again, That's not sort of

692
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 1: what Tarrod Taylor does. It's a divisional game. Weird things

693
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: sort of happen in divisional games. This just does not

694
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 1: strike me as a game that the Titans are just

695
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: going to completely roll. And even if they do win handily,

696
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: I think you'll have enough with Taylor to have the

697
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 1: potential for a backdoor cover. If you can get ten

698
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: and a half, please go get ten and a half.

699
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 1: But even at ten, Mike, I don't know, man. I

700
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 1: think the Texas is this game by a field go

701
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: how ugly? How ugly? Is this probably the ugliest game

702
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: on the board.

703
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: Ugly is beautiful? You said it perfectly. Houston is really

704
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 2: sitting in the perfect spot to get Tennessee. Tennessee has

705
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 2: played Buffalo, the Chiefs, at the Colts, at the Rams,

706
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 2: the Saints, and next week at New England. If there

707
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 2: is ever going to be a flat spot for Tennessee,

708
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 2: this is it ten and a half. Right, they can

709
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 2: get a backdoor cover. This is a Houston team that

710
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 2: almost be the Patriots at home, and you know what

711
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 2: Belichick with his preparation. So yes, I think they're overvalued.

712
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 2: I lost that bet the Texans at the Dolphins prior

713
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 2: to their bye week. Yeah, Taylor turned it over so

714
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 2: many times. I think it was five and a half.

715
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 2: If he just didn't turn over one of those times,

716
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 2: I think they cover. The Dolphins at home have been

717
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 2: certainly tough. You so with it against the Ravens, I

718
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: think it's way too many points. It's the perfect flat spot.

719
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: And listen, I think Tennessee kudos to Rabel and the

720
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 2: whole crew. They're due for a stinker here, some negative regression.

721
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: They can win this game ugly by three or six

722
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: points and we still cover, And of course you have

723
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 2: the back door. Yes, flat spot, Tyrod Taylor plays better

724
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 2: Texans I agree.

725
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 1: And the bottom line is, just like the offense without

726
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: Dark Henry, we're we're taking it for granted because of

727
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:00,959
Speaker 1: the fact that they've won the last two games. It

728
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: has not been good and they played tough defenses, of course,

729
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: I mean the Rams and the Saints, but they're barely

730
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: squeaking by sort of you know there and again they

731
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: had the fluky pick six and the short fields and

732
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: everything like that against the Rams. I don't know, man

733
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 1: off of bye all Texans all day long. I love it. Okay,

734
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: very quickly, let me recap, Mike, you are taking let

735
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: me get there. Sorry, I've totally got it. It's fine.

736
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 1: I was not jotting, goat, it's definitely not okay. You're

737
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: taking the Vikings plus two and a half against the Packers,

738
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: who are taking the Seahawks getting three. No, no, I

739
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: think it's two and a half now against the Cardinals,

740
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: and you are taking these Steelers getting five and a

741
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: half here against the Chargers. I am taking the Raiders

742
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 1: getting one against the Bengals, the Chiefs slaying two and

743
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: a half against the Cowboys, and of course the greatest

744
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: pick of all time, the Texans getting ten against the Titans.

745
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 1: Let's went through their remaining spreads real quick. Okay, Mike,

746
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: I'm gonna we'll hold you to it. We'll see where

747
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: you are right now, because people might be listening to

748
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: this after the game. We can know whether or not

749
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: you're right or wrong or what are you doing tonight?

750
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 1: The spread now six and a half with the Falcons

751
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 1: getting six and a half from the Pats.

752
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really a toss up for me. I'm kind

753
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 2: of staying away. My favorite move is to tease the

754
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 2: Patriots down. I don't think the Patriots lose this game. Yeah,

755
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 2: I also like the Falcons in the first half. They're

756
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 2: getting three and a half at most books plus three

757
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 2: and a half in the first half. I think they

758
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 2: come out strong. I think the Patriots win and so

759
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: the Falcons are limited their home. But just the fact

760
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 2: that the Patriots dominated by so much against the Browns

761
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: and the Falcons look so bad against the Cowboys makes

762
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 2: me lean to a stay away here. I don't trust

763
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 2: the Falcons, certainly, but could this be six points? Absolutely?

764
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 2: So I'm teasing the Patriots down and I like the

765
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 2: Falcons first half plus three and a half, but I'm

766
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 2: not going to play the spread I think it's too high.

767
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: It's a really tough game, just because everything that you

768
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: look at is the classic Bilo so high right that

769
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 1: Falcons look like the worst team in football. Maybe down

770
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 1: Cordero Patterson, the Patriots look like the best team in football.

771
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 1: That's mantling the Browns in the game again that I

772
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: was on the Browns. But that's it's just tough because

773
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 1: the personnel does not do it. I have it at

774
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 1: the Falcons plus seven a very minor taste. It's not

775
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:14,919
Speaker 1: down to six and a half, which is not enough

776
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: for me. I don't feel greatly confident in it. But

777
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 1: full disclosure, and you can see in the betting pros

778
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: app and I am on the Falcons plus seven. So

779
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: I will be watching and vomiting a little bit tonight.

780
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are visiting the Jets. They are laying three

781
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: and a half against the Joe Flacco led Jets. This

782
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 1: was three or early in the week. It's now three

783
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:32,760
Speaker 1: and a half. What do you think?

784
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 2: I like the Jets and the points. These rivalry games

785
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 2: have been so crazy either way. The Dolphins are playing well,

786
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 2: but they may be a little overvalue coming off the Ravens.

787
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 2: I know it's Joe Flacco, but Michael Carter's been excellent.

788
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 2: They have to continue to get Elijah more involved, and

789
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 2: the Jets defense has been decent here. These games are

790
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: so so many crazy things, right, Dan, We had the

791
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 2: Chad Pennington revenge game, We had the Dan Marino fake spike.

792
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 2: We had the Jets down I think thirty to seven

793
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter, had a massive comeback and won

794
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 2: that game. So I'm gonna take the points in this game,

795
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 2: in this rivalry, and I'll take it with the Jets here.

796
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,479
Speaker 2: I don't love it because it's Flacco, but I'm gonna

797
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 2: grab the points. And when I think is a coin.

798
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 1: Flip, yeah, I'm staying away. I mean I don't want it. Yes,

799
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: this has a historically like bizarre rivalry with these su teams.

800
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,800
Speaker 1: And again I use the word rivalry very very loosely

801
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 1: because it really hasn't been that. But yes, I do

802
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 1: recall all those games vividly. It's been very exciting to watch.

803
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 1: But I'm saying away, what about the Saints visiting the

804
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 1: Eagles here, Mike, the Eagles are laying to It's a

805
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: really interesting game. What do you think?

806
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm hearing the kamaraes back, which would be big.

807
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 2: And listen, the Eagles have been much better than I

808
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 2: thought it would be, and Jalen Hurts really has played well.

809
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 2: That was a nice game against the Broncos. Yeah, but

810
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 2: Sean Payton is a great strategist and he did barely

811
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 2: cover against the Titans on the road. But this team

812
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 2: is good. They still have a tremendous offensive line. They're

813
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 2: going to run the ball. I expect Taysom Hill to

814
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 2: get worked in a little bit more, and I trust

815
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 2: Sean Payton and this offensive line. And you know, the

816
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 2: Saints of defense is great. So I think Hurts can

817
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: make a couple of mistakes. He's played well, but I

818
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 2: trust the Saints more and I trust Payton again, similar

819
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 2: to last week. I'll go back and take the points,

820
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:11,800
Speaker 2: and if Kamala plays, I think that line goes the

821
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 2: other way. So I like New Orleans and Seowan Payton

822
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 2: here on the road.

823
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 1: Strikes me something. I want to tease up with the Saints,

824
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 1: to tease it up from two to maybe eight, because

825
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 1: I do think the Saints win this game. But the

826
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 1: Eagles really are playing exceptionally well, and this is the

827
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: spot since they've changed our offense Fossphy and if they

828
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: win this game, by the way, given their remaining schedule, right,

829
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 1: it's a ton of Giants and Washington like they really

830
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 1: should make the playoffs if they win this game, and

831
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 1: they probably know that, right, So it's a big game

832
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 1: for them. But yet it's really tough to fade the

833
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 1: Saints here after a couple tough losses with how well

834
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 1: coached they are, So I lean towards the Saints getting

835
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 1: the two, but I'd really much prefer to tease them up.

836
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: You almost had this game, Mike. You switched it out.

837
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 1: The Panthers are now laying three to the Washington football team.

838
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: Only because it's three. Dan, I love the Panthers in

839
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 2: this spot, but I do think Washington's playing well. Ron

840
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 2: rivera game, however you want to look at it. Yeah, No,

841
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 2: Chase Young Cam is back, and I think he's going

842
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: to play very very well. Christian McCaffrey last week only

843
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 2: a sixty two percent snapshare had the overall I believe

844
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 2: RB one or RB two performance with ten receptions. I

845
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 2: know Antonio Gibson look good, which is what you're going

846
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 2: to have to do against the Panthers is run the ball.

847
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 2: But much like Missouri, I'm the show me state. I

848
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 2: need to see mister Gibson do it again here. I

849
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 2: don't trust Taylor Heineke. They really have struggled. The Fitzpatrick

850
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 2: was healthy. I think Washington could have really been pretty

851
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 2: decent this year, but Heinike's been very up and down.

852
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 2: The Carolina defense is legit Stefan Gilmour two interceptions, He's

853
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 2: not even playing that many snaps. I think that increases here.

854
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 2: There's good fifty to fifty action. I love Carolina if

855
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 2: it gets under three to two and a half or two,

856
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 2: because I think they keep rolling and they get a

857
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 2: win here they've righted the ship and with Cam under center,

858
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 2: that's huge. But with three and a half, I'm kind

859
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 2: of not crazy about it, so I'd stay away. If

860
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 2: it's down to three, it's a close bed. If it's

861
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 2: under three, it's an automatic push for me.

862
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,479
Speaker 1: With the Panthers, it's basically three or three and a half.

863
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 1: At every book, it's basically fifty to fifty consensus line.

864
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: Technically three because of you know, that's probably the majority

865
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: about like one book or anything like that. I kind

866
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 1: of like Washington at three and a half. It wouldn't

867
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: be one that I would bet, certainly, But I kind

868
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: of just feel like I don't know necessarily what we're

869
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 1: gonna expect to see here from Cam the defense is legit.

870
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: I've always just thought the Washington football team should be

871
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 1: better than it is, even without Chase Young. So it's

872
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 1: pretty much a stay away from me. I could see

873
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 1: it at three and a half. I could see the

874
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,800
Speaker 1: Panthers at under three. Like you said, basically, we're basically

875
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 1: seeing it largely the same way. Bills at home seven

876
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: laying seven against the Colts.

877
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 2: You know, the Cults have been playing well. I just

878
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,959
Speaker 2: think the Bills run defense is the big difference here.

879
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 2: With the exception of the Derrick Henry game, the Bills

880
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 2: have shut down the opposing running back, going back to

881
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 2: Naji Harris, Miles Gaskin, you name the running back, you

882
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: can't run it on them. So it's gonna have to

883
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 2: be Carson Wentz in the passing game on the road.

884
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 2: That makes me nervous. I know it's a big number,

885
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 2: but the Bills really were upset about that stumble against Jacksonville.

886
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 2: Stefan Diggs got going last week against the Jets. I

887
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 2: am laying the points here with Buffalo. It's not one

888
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 2: of my top picks, but I don't see a situation

889
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 2: where Jonathan Taylor goes crazy. I actually put him as

890
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 2: a fade in my fantasy article because I think his

891
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 2: price is too high in DFS and the culture going

892
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 2: to need Jonathan Taylor to have a big game to

893
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 2: keep this game close. Bill's have a lot of weapons.

894
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 2: Zach Moss looks back, Dawson Knox is back, which is

895
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 2: huge against the Indianapolis defense. So I'm laying the points.

896
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 2: It reminds me of the game earlier in the year

897
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 2: where Washington went to Buffalo. It's like nine and a

898
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 2: half and people are all over it and the Bills

899
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 2: hung in number Colts. If you like the Colts, that

900
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 2: means you believe Taylor is going to beat up that

901
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: run defensive Buffalo, which just hasn't happened outside of the

902
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,280
Speaker 2: you know immovable object, which is Derrick Henry.

903
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a big game for both teams, right.

904
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 1: The Colts are five and five. They need to win

905
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: to stick up Bill suddenly had the Patriots breathing down

906
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 1: their neck. If the Pats win tonight, this is a

907
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 1: game where they've got to win. There are a couple

908
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: of seven and a halfs out there. Fox Bet, for example,

909
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 1: points bet that you know I would be okay with

910
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:02,760
Speaker 1: the Colts frankly at over a touchdown. At a touchdown.

911
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, way Bill's Buffalo is very difficult place

912
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,439
Speaker 1: to play, especially as it gets late into the year,

913
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 1: as we're getting right now. So it is something where

914
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 1: I'm a little nervous about it. I'd probably say away,

915
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 1: but I kind of lean cults a little bit. If

916
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: you're getting the hook over seven forty nine ers visiting

917
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 1: the Jaguars six and a half points, what do you think?

918
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:23,439
Speaker 2: Give me the Jaguars selling the Niners off a big

919
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 2: win here on the road. Jaguars pass defense has been

920
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 2: pretty sneaky. I mean, we just saw this Jaguars team

921
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 2: play well against Buffalo. Here comes Jimmy g I kind

922
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 2: of like the Jaguars here. I think they keep it close.

923
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 2: I will take the points with a home team like

924
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 2: San Francisco and the way they're going, they're gonna have

925
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 2: to run it down the throat of the Jaguars. And

926
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 2: I like Jeff Wilson has been back. I think he

927
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 2: looked pretty good last week. Is starting to get acclimated,

928
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 2: but Elijah Mitchell has always hurt. I don't think Deebo

929
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 2: Samuel runs wild like he did in the last game,

930
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 2: because I do trust the Jaguars a little bit on

931
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 2: the pass defense. So I'll take the points with the

932
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 2: Jaguars here on the you know, I'm not ready to

933
00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 2: lay a touchdown with Jimmy g on the road.

934
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: I think the sharp side is clearly the Jaguars, as

935
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 1: it almost always is with the Jaguars involved. I just again,

936
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 1: I'm just being honest, to stay away from me, stay

937
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: away for me, like completely, because I think the Jaguars

938
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: are the right side, and I cannot pull the trigger

939
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 1: on Urban Meyer with that one. We mentioned Lamar Jackson.

940
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: There are questions because he's been sick. The Ravens right

941
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 1: now are on the road against the Bears coming off

942
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 1: by right now. The consensus line is five, but it varies.

943
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 1: There are sixes out there, there are four and a

944
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 1: half's out there. It's all over the place a little bit.

945
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 1: So let's just take it at five. What I mean,

946
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 1: do you just stay away because we don't know what's

947
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 1: going on with Lamar Jackson or what.

948
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 2: It's either a stay away because of Lamar, or, like

949
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 2: you've said before, tease it up with Chicago. Justin Fields

950
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 2: has played well at home, They competed, the defense is strong.

951
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 2: The question is can the Ravens adjust if it's Lamar

952
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 2: against the pressure, The Dolphins basically said, Lamar, beat us

953
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 2: with your arm, We're not gonna let you run, and

954
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 2: they blitz the house and he couldn't handle it. So

955
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 2: of course Harbar's going to adjust. But Lamar is a

956
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 2: big unknown for me, so I don't know how he's

957
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 2: gonna go, and I want to stay away, but I

958
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 2: think it's very viable to tease up the Bears. Because

959
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 2: you tease it up now, soppost Lamar Jackson doesn't play. Now,

960
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 2: you're getting eleven twelve points of value with Justin Fields

961
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 2: and the Bears at home, which is fair. Dornell Mooney

962
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 2: has been great, Alan Robinson not as much, and David

963
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 2: Montgomery is back, which could mean good things for him.

964
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 2: So even against the tough ra Ravens run defense. So

965
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 2: stay away right now, but if you want, you can

966
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 2: tease it up.

967
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 1: Brown's are at home laying eleven to the Lions. It

968
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 1: does sound like Baker Mayfield's going to play. We're still

969
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: waiting on Nick Chubb to get cleared. But this is

970
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 1: obviously Jared Goff. We have questions as to whether or

971
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 1: not he's going to play, and if you can't play,

972
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: can he be effective? So eleven points? There are some

973
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: eleven and a half right now. This was ten when

974
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: I took a look at it on Monday. So eleven, now,

975
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 1: what do you think?

976
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's still uncertain with the running back situation. I

977
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 2: think Kareem Hunt is out, Nick Chubb may be out.

978
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 2: A lot of unknowns here, Baker admit that he's hurting.

979
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:50,879
Speaker 2: It's a lot of points. It's to stay away. Jared

980
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 2: Goff doesn't play. I don't know how you take the

981
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 2: Lions in that situation, but it's just a lot of

982
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 2: points that to stay away with a lot of unknowns.

983
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 2: But certainly I think the Browns win. To question is

984
00:42:58,239 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 2: do they cover?

985
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure I'm out on it as well.

986
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 1: Last game here Monday night football Bucks looking to bounce

987
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 1: back here against the Giants. Now laying eleven again. This

988
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 1: was something that was ten when I first looked at it.

989
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: Ten and a half. Now it's eleven. What do you think.

990
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 2: It's a stay away. You could tease down the Bucks

991
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 2: if you wanted to. What I really like here is

992
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 2: the over because I think the Giants are going to

993
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 2: score points and there Brady's going to want to hang

994
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: a number and try to get this team back on track.

995
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 2: Leonard four Nette, it's been fantastic. So the number is

996
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 2: high and Daniel Jones reeks of a backdoor cover with

997
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 2: this number. There's no side on the Giants that I

998
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 2: would take. I like the Buccaneers, probably like to get

999
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 2: that number down, but again, laying double digits in the

1000
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,280
Speaker 2: NFL dan is hard, especially in this spot. So probably

1001
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 2: lean more towards the over because I do think the

1002
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:44,920
Speaker 2: Giants will put up points, and I know the Buccaneers

1003
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 2: at home will put up points.

1004
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I like the over as well. I

1005
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 1: would avoid the spread entirely just because Danny dimes on

1006
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 1: the road that's where he does it. So that is

1007
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: something where I am avoiding. Let me just quickly again

1008
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: recap before I let you go. Here. You are on

1009
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 1: the Vikings getting two and a half from the Packers,

1010
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 1: the Seahawks getting I think it's two and a half,

1011
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: maybe three. I'll check whatever they says, it's line up.

1012
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 1: I'll take three, you'll take three. I like it. I'll

1013
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 1: give you two and a half though, because that's what

1014
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 1: that's the line is, all right. The Hawks getting two

1015
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 1: and a half from the Cardinals. Again, that's that's a pick.

1016
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 1: I'm definitely on as well. And you are taking the

1017
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: Steelers getting five and a half here from the Chargers.

1018
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 1: I am taking the Raiders getting one from the Bengals,

1019
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 1: the Chiefs laying two and a half to the Cowboys,

1020
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 1: and the Texans thankfully getting ten from the Titans. Mic.

1021
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining me. I appreciate you.

1022
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 1: Just mind everybody where they can check you out in

1023
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:36,439
Speaker 1: your work.

1024
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 2: You can follow me on Twitter at Randall Rant and

1025
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 2: all the great stuff for the Action Network. And every

1026
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 2: Thursday the roadab is fantasy football mail bag, which I have.

1027
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 1: To get you on Dan by the way, yeah, what

1028
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:45,359
Speaker 1: the heck?

1029
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,879
Speaker 2: Everywhere every week Thursday morning we preview the Thursday games

1030
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:49,720
Speaker 2: to talk about the weekend.

1031
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: All right, good well, I look forward then to popping

1032
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,320
Speaker 1: on your podcast in the meantime. I hope everybody is

1033
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 1: a great football Sunday and weekend. Just generally enjoy it.

1034
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 1: We'll be back as we always are. On Monday, take

1035
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,840
Speaker 1: an early look at the week twelve lines. Goodness, Christians,

1036
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 1: can't believe they're already. I'll talk to you them, guys,