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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go spreading the corn. Ten seconds remaining to

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Speaker 1: just go throw half of the basket under the basket.

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Speaker 1: It's the troup for the wind God, big abracle I.

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Speaker 2: The water hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast on Mike

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Speaker 1: Calbary's joined for a special college basketball episode by Tanner McGrath,

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Speaker 1: our college hoops expert to the North, coming down here

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Speaker 1: parachuting into college football's championship weekends to give a little

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Speaker 1: college basketball love. Because this Wednesday is a phenomenal top

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Speaker 1: to bottom card. We couldn't skip it for you guys.

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Speaker 1: You got the Big twelve Big East battle as well

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Speaker 1: as the acc SEC battles that are being played out.

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Speaker 1: Those conference partnerships are producing some incredible matchup How good

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Speaker 1: are they? According to my back of the Napkin math,

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Speaker 1: there are nine Ken Palm Top one hundred matchups on

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Speaker 1: Wednesday alone. That just does not happen this early in

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Speaker 1: a college basketball season. So for that reason, we're going

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Speaker 1: to go ahead give you two best bets each and then,

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Speaker 1: in the spirit of Stucky, go through a lightning round

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Speaker 1: where we pick through the trash and try to give

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Speaker 1: you some picks from teams, let's say, outside of the

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Speaker 1: Ken Palm Top two fifty. We're going to get into

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Speaker 1: some really interesting teams there that you've probably never heard of.

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Speaker 1: Some are newbies to the Division one ranks. But we're

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Speaker 1: going to do our best to make money for you

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Speaker 1: along the way. Tanner, how you.

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Speaker 2: Doing, I'm doing great. College basketball season is in full

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Speaker 2: swing and I've been enjoying every moment of non conference

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Speaker 2: action and I can't wait for more on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: So my fingers are crossed here that we are not

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Speaker 1: cross pollinating. So you can go first with your best bet,

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Speaker 1: and then I'll lay out my best bet for Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, despite there being the Biggieast Big twelve battle and

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Speaker 2: the acc SEC battle, I think that's called something else.

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Speaker 2: But I'm going to dig into some Big Ten Conference action,

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Speaker 2: which kicks off on Wednesday, with each Big Ten team

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Speaker 2: playing two games early in the season. First one is

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Speaker 2: I like Maryland minus four at home against Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: I think this opened a little bit earlier, a little

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Speaker 2: bit lower. It's going to probably get pushed up because

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Speaker 2: the spot's pretty good. Look Ohio State is just due

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Speaker 2: for all sorts of negative two way shooting regression. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they've snuck up to eighteenth nationally in Kem Palm's ratings

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Speaker 2: because they've shot forty five percent from three while opponents

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Speaker 2: have shot twenty five percent from three. That's wildly unsustainable.

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Speaker 2: Based on shot Qualities metrics, which measures efficiency based on

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Speaker 2: the quality of attempts taken and allowed, they should be

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Speaker 2: shooting closer to thirty five percent and allowing closer to

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Speaker 2: thirty two percent. If the squad goes cold soon, I

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Speaker 2: think things could get ugly in Columbus, and from a

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Speaker 2: more schematic perspective, in this matchup, Ohio State has been

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Speaker 2: playing a lot of drive and kick basketball. They surround

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Speaker 2: Bruce Thorton and Michi Johnson with a bunch of mid

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Speaker 2: major transfer off the bounce playmakers and scores, and they're

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Speaker 2: all just shooting the lights out despite ranking like two

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Speaker 2: hundred and ninetieth in open three rate. I mean, Mobley

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Speaker 2: has made twenty one of his thirty seven threes. Thornton

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Speaker 2: Johnson Parish, they've made forty five of one hundred combined.

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Speaker 2: That's that's bound to regress, and it could change here

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Speaker 2: against a Maryland squad that can play drop coverage defense

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Speaker 2: with Reese and overplay shooters on the perimeter and wings

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Speaker 2: and force all of those guys into middle of the

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Speaker 2: floor creation, which I mean, that could work too, but

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Speaker 2: it will be way less efficient than Ohio State driving

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Speaker 2: and kicking and shooting fifty percent from three On the

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Speaker 2: other end of the court, I have my issues with Maryland,

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Speaker 2: especially with their floor spacing on offense and Geronimo. Jordan

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Speaker 2: Geronimo is also hurt, I think, But I don't think

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Speaker 2: that's a big loss given the Turps wing depth is

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Speaker 2: actually pretty They have a lot of depth out there,

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Speaker 2: and the fact that he wasn't really playing much before

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Speaker 2: the injury and he's not going to really help spacing

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Speaker 2: issues he didn't in Indiana regardless, Like Maryland should just

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Speaker 2: be able to cut roll and post their way to

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Speaker 2: points here behind Reese and breakout freshman Derek Queen, who

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Speaker 2: I know you're a big fan of, because Ohio State

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Speaker 2: has to play pretty small ball lineups right now with

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Speaker 2: Aaron Bradshaw sideline due to quote unquote domestic incident like

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Speaker 2: for example, last Friday, pit wrecked them on the boards

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Speaker 2: and then the paint scored twenty second chance points thirty

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Speaker 2: six paint points. Pitt also got to the line thirty times.

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Speaker 2: Ohio State has been fouling a lot down low so far. Also,

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Speaker 2: I don't know what we'll get from Ohio State in

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Speaker 2: their second true road game. They got boat raced by

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Speaker 2: A and M. In their first true road game. I

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Speaker 2: think they were down twenty in the first ten minutes.

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Speaker 2: And they played a neutral side game against Texas and

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Speaker 2: really only one because they shot fourteen for twenty eight

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Speaker 2: from three. And you know, Big ten home court is

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Speaker 2: always worth playing. Since twenty fifteen, Big ten home teams

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Speaker 2: in conference play are six hundred and forty and five

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty against the spread, it's about a four

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Speaker 2: percent ROI I mean College Park. It's not easy to

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Speaker 2: go in there and win. They played Marquette super duper

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Speaker 2: tough at home in the non con already who I

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Speaker 2: would power rate way higher than Ohio State. And the

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Speaker 2: Terps also closed minus two and a half in that game.

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Speaker 2: So if you're giving me anything close here, I'm all

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Speaker 2: over Maryland. So I think Maryland gets it done against

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Speaker 2: an overvalued Ohio State squad. I don't love the Bucks

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Speaker 2: going on the road. I like the matchup from Maryland,

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Speaker 2: and I think the spot is pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Derek Queen is going to be a well kept

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Speaker 1: secret for all of I don't know another twenty four hours,

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Speaker 1: because I could see him eating up the Buckeyes on

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Speaker 1: the inside on the glass. He opened his college career

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Speaker 1: with a twenty twenty double double. Now granted it was

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Speaker 1: against the Manhattan Jaspers, but since then, on a minute's

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Speaker 1: per minute basis, he has been a stat sheet stuffer.

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Speaker 1: I see him emerging after playing a bunch of ten

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Speaker 1: cans early in the season and kind of being hidden

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Speaker 1: in this game. I think could be a coming out party.

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Speaker 1: I actually wrote him up in the New York Post

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday, one hundred and twenty to one to win

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Speaker 1: the Wooden. They've just been handing that award to the

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Speaker 1: best big in the country, specifically the best big in

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Speaker 1: the Big ten often in recent years. So I really

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Speaker 1: like what he brings to the table. So I'm on

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Speaker 1: the terps with you as well. I'm going to go

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Speaker 1: with the Marquee match up here. I believe Chad Millman

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Speaker 1: will be in attendance for this one at Cameron Indoor

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Speaker 1: alburn At taking all of their first place votes in

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Speaker 1: both the AP and coaches poll down to Durham to

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Speaker 1: play the Blue Devils. I'm going to take the points

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Speaker 1: here with the Tigers because let's address Duke's biggest problem

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Speaker 1: right off the bat against the league teams when it

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Speaker 1: comes down to the wire, Duke does not have a

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Speaker 1: true floor general to be able to get them in

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Speaker 1: their offensive stuff end of game situations. And what that's

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Speaker 1: meant is, in many cases, Cooper Flag has had the

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Speaker 1: ball and he's turned the ball over repeatedly in key

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Speaker 1: situations against both Kentucky and against Kansas. Duke led Kentucky

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Speaker 1: by one seventy sixty nine with two minutes remaining in

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Speaker 1: that game last month. In the final two minutes, Flag

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Speaker 1: had three turnovers. He pressed trying to make things happen,

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Speaker 1: dribbling the ball off of his leg, getting caught up

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Speaker 1: and doubled, and not knowing where to go with the basketball.

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Speaker 1: Then against Kansas, John Shires team had the ball down

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Speaker 1: one with under a minute left. Once again Flagg would

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Speaker 1: go into the lane spin cough it up, not a

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Speaker 1: natural play. He ends up being stripped by Zeke Mayo

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Speaker 1: and after getting a stop. John Shire had seen enough

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Speaker 1: of Cooper Flag in those crunch time moments, ends up

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Speaker 1: drawing a play for kan Kaanoople, same result. He ends

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Speaker 1: up getting into the lane, he elevates, can't even get

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Speaker 1: off a shot, ends up throwing an airon pass and

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Speaker 1: turning it over. So if this game is close, I've

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Speaker 1: seen what Alburn has done in key situations. They got

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Speaker 1: Denver Jones, they got Chad Baker Mazara to be able

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Speaker 1: to get to the tin, and then Jeni Broom just

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Speaker 1: cleans up anything on the offensive glass, as he did

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Speaker 1: in that two point win over Iowa State, hitting that

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Speaker 1: little bunny to win the game. I like what Alburn

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Speaker 1: brings to the table. And if you can catch anything

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Speaker 1: above a single possession with plus three, which the projections

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Speaker 1: right now thirty six hours out call for them to

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Speaker 1: be getting that many points, I love the Tigers in

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Speaker 1: this spot. And as I mentioned, the offensive glass I

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Speaker 1: think is where they're going to dominate in this one.

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Speaker 1: Broom collected thirteen offensive rebounds in Malley in those three games,

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Speaker 1: and that is Yeoman's work on the glass. Someone who's

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Speaker 1: just a National Player of the Year candidate because he

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Speaker 1: can get into his own stuff back to the basket

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Speaker 1: kind of you know, basketball down in the low post.

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Speaker 1: He's doing the dirty work as well, and I think

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Speaker 1: that's going to be a problem for a Duke back

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Speaker 1: or front court. I should say they gave up ten

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Speaker 1: offensive boards to Kansas despite hundred Dickinson leaving early in

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Speaker 1: that game. What are your thoughts on the Tigers remaining

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Speaker 1: hot as they are all the way up to number

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Speaker 1: two in both polls or do you think at this

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Speaker 1: point the market is overreacting a bit to Bruce Pearl's

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Speaker 1: hot start.

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Speaker 2: If you listen to our last podcast together, you know

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Speaker 2: that I'm all in on Auburn, best team in the nation.

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Speaker 2: I think they're really going to win it all. And yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's it's not just Cooper flag and the lack of

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Speaker 2: a true floor general, as he said it, it's youthful inexperience.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're a young team. It showed up against

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Speaker 2: Kentucky and Kansas. It's going to show up here against

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Speaker 2: an uber experienced team with plenty of continuity and plenty

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Speaker 2: of debt. Also, Duke has an elite and elite defense,

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Speaker 2: arguably the nation's best. But I'm still unsure about their offense,

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Speaker 2: and I don't know how they're going to run their

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Speaker 2: offense here because Shier likes to run a secondary motion

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Speaker 2: based thing like one hundred stagger screens and one hundred

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Speaker 2: off ball shooters and Auburn they run like one of

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Speaker 2: the most dominant drop coverage defenses in the country, and

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Speaker 2: they can with broom just at the defending the rim.

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Speaker 2: They can switch one through four all of those secondary actions.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how Duke scores here, So I'm going

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Speaker 2: to take the points with.

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Speaker 1: You, all right, second best bet for you.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to go to another Big ten match

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Speaker 2: up here, a new Big ten matchup, and it's going

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Speaker 2: to be a really gross one on a slate filled

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Speaker 2: with awesome, awesome games. I'm going to try and catch

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Speaker 2: a falling knife with the USC Trojans, who recently lost

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Speaker 2: by ten to New Mexico and scored a total of

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Speaker 2: thirty six points against Saint Mary's and also lost by

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Speaker 2: five at home to cal That said, I think this

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Speaker 2: is the spot to fade the eight to no Oregon

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Speaker 2: Ducks catching seven and a half at home with USCA.

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Speaker 2: The Ducks, who are off three incredible wins in Vegas.

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Speaker 2: I think they're probably juiced in the market. I think

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Speaker 2: we're getting like the peak of their value right now,

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Speaker 2: and they have a matchup with Ken Palm number seventeen

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Speaker 2: UCLA on deck. Eric Musselman has generally been pretty good

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Speaker 2: in these home underdog spots. Last year he upset Duke

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Speaker 2: in the non con This was with Arkansas, obviously, but

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Speaker 2: he also picked up picked off Texas, A and M

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Speaker 2: as a home dog. He got hooked against Kentucky, catching

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Speaker 2: five and a half, lost by six. He's five and

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Speaker 2: four against the spread as a home dog and his

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Speaker 2: coaching career. But more importantly, the Oregon Ducks are twenty

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Speaker 2: seven and thirty six against the spread as road favorites

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Speaker 2: since Dana Altman took over in twenty eleven, and in

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Speaker 2: our bet Lauds database we have eight instances of Altman

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Speaker 2: led teams being non con road favorites. That database, unfortunately

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Speaker 2: isn't really full with games against low major squads, but

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Speaker 2: it does have it's good at recording like Power Conference

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Speaker 2: versus Power Conference, so this is a good measuring stick

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Speaker 2: for this game. Altman is one and seven against the

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Speaker 2: spread in those games, one and four against the spread

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Speaker 2: with Creighton zero and three against the spread with Oregon.

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Speaker 2: The Ducks loss roade non con games as favorites to

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Speaker 2: Oregon State and Cal just last year, and you can

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Speaker 2: just see what they did on the road against Oregon

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Speaker 2: State a few weeks ago. The Ducks closed to six

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Speaker 2: and a half point favorites against the Beavers and trailed

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Speaker 2: by double digits with ten minutes left. Nate Biddle went

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Speaker 2: crazy down the stretch and saved them, but they still

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Speaker 2: they only won by three, And for what it's worth,

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Speaker 2: this is now the Duck's fifth consecutive game away from Eugene.

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Speaker 2: I wonder if the tank is starting to get a

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Speaker 2: little low. And one of the biggest reasons why Altman's

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Speaker 2: teams underperform in the early season is because he runs

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Speaker 2: an immensely complex defensive scheme which switches between man to

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Speaker 2: man and drop coverage stuff to extended matchup zone a

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Speaker 2: la Rick Patino like, often within the same possession like

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Speaker 2: they It's a whole like read and react defensive system.

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Speaker 2: It's really tough to learn, and Dana always features these

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Speaker 2: transfer laden rosters, so it takes a It takes a

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Speaker 2: while for these guys to pick it up. But one

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Speaker 2: of the tenets of that scheme at large is it's

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Speaker 2: generally good at denying rim and three and or catch

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Speaker 2: and shoot opportunities, So they like they overplay shooters on

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Speaker 2: the perimeter and wings, and they deny the paint and

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Speaker 2: rim sometimes by overhelping, and most often they try to

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Speaker 2: funnel opponents into the mid range. But usc Eric Musselman,

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Speaker 2: they love playing in the mid range. The Trojans are

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Speaker 2: a big work in progress, but one thing I've seen

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Speaker 2: them do a lot in the early season is use

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Speaker 2: Saint Thomas as like a post up guard and then

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Speaker 2: have the bigger wing forward tweeners like Josh Cohen and

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Speaker 2: Matt Noling cut on the weak side and earn like

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Speaker 2: layups or mid post buckets. The Trojans rank like top

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Speaker 2: fifteen nationally and cutting frequency in top fifteen cutting points

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Speaker 2: per possession. They're shooting like seventy percent on cutting sets

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Speaker 2: right now, and I think that could work against the

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Speaker 2: Ducks because the drop doesn't want to play so aggressively

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Speaker 2: in the gaps, which will leave the lanes open. The

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Speaker 2: Ducks will try to overhelp with the which will leave

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Speaker 2: the lanes open and a good way to beat an

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Speaker 2: extended matchup zone is to cut behind it, especially because

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Speaker 2: the lanes are left open. The Ducks are an okay

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Speaker 2: cut denial defense, but they've been brutal at defending cuts

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Speaker 2: on a per possession efficiency basis. This year they're allowing

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Speaker 2: I think nearly one and a half points per possession

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Speaker 2: on those sets that it's like three hundred and fortieth

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Speaker 2: nashally of three hundred and sixty teams. And on the

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Speaker 2: other end of the court, it gets really scary because

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Speaker 2: Oregon might just be able to create off the bounce

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Speaker 2: against USC's dribble penetration defense is abhorrent. I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: one of the worst in basketball. And Oregon has several

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Speaker 2: unbelievable dribble creators like Jackson Shelstadt unbelievable quickly becoming one

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Speaker 2: of my favorite players in college basketball. But Dana loves

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Speaker 2: playing through the post. He wants to play through biddle

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Speaker 2: and the post. And Josh Cohen for USC is an

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Speaker 2: elite post up defender. He was a stud at Saint Francis,

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Speaker 2: he was a stud at UMass And when the Trojans

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Speaker 2: played another post heavy squad in Saint Mary's, they I

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Speaker 2: think they allowed six points on fifteen post upsets. So look,

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Speaker 2: it's gross, but I think it's a great bi low

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Speaker 2: cell high spot. The projection models seem to back up

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Speaker 2: that line of thought. I think bart Torvic makes the

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Speaker 2: spread three, Hazl makes it four, and I don't hate

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Speaker 2: the matchup on the court or on the sideline. So

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Speaker 2: I got seven and a half with the Trojans. I

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Speaker 2: think five or six is playable. I like the spot

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Speaker 2: a lot, all right.

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Speaker 1: I know I don't want you to have to argue

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Speaker 1: against yourself here, but close your eyes for a moment.

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Speaker 1: It's twenty to eight early on, Oregon gets off to

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Speaker 1: another slow start. Are you jumping in Live and trying

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Speaker 1: to middle this thing? Because they just keep coming back.

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Speaker 1: They're the cardiac quack this season.

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Speaker 2: The best way to win a college basketball game is

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Speaker 2: to build an an insurmountable first half deficit. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: of course I'm gonna bet them live.

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Speaker 1: All right. I'm gonna hold you to that because as

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Speaker 1: soon as that happens, I'm hopping in Live and I'm

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Speaker 1: texting to you. All right, let's go to a Marquee matchup.

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Speaker 1: On Wednesday, Marquette traveling to Ames to take on the Cyclones,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the big points here. It looks like

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Speaker 1: it's two possessions north of that six six and a half.

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Speaker 1: I would play this up to seven. And it starts

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Speaker 1: with coach OTTs, who is twenty four and thirteen against

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Speaker 1: the spread on his home floor in the past two seasons.

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Speaker 1: That's tied for the fourth best mark among Power Conference

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Speaker 1: teams in the country. And I can only assume that

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Speaker 1: your counter to that would be Shock on the road

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Speaker 1: twenty two thirteen and one against the spread on the

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Speaker 1: road at Marquette twelve six and one. As a road dog,

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Speaker 1: he's been phenomenal. But I want to focus in on

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Speaker 1: what Iowa State did in Mali, and I understand that

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Speaker 1: they lost, but they went fifteen rounds with Auburn in

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Speaker 1: one of the games of the year. I think when

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Speaker 1: we look back on this in March, we're going to

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Speaker 1: say that both of those teams were elite. It wasn't

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Speaker 1: an opportunity that Iowa State necessarily let slip through their fingers.

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Speaker 1: It was an opportunity to prove themselves against another elite

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Speaker 1: team and to be able to score at a much

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Speaker 1: higher rate than they had in recent years. If you

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Speaker 1: listened to some of the preseason comments from coach OTTs.

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Speaker 1: He's someone who realizes that offensively they were just not

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Speaker 1: getting it done to finally punched through and gets to

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Speaker 1: that elite level of college basketball. When you look at

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Speaker 1: his first three years in Ames, one hundred and seventy, first,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteenth, fifty second, that's where he finished

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Speaker 1: in Ken Palm offensive efficiency. This year they are fourth.

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Speaker 1: And that is the big difference here because I know

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Speaker 1: that their defense is potentially going to give Marquette some issues.

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Speaker 1: And it starts with Stucky. You're gonna want to listen

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Speaker 1: to this, Tam and Lipsey. I'm gonna say some nice

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Speaker 1: things about the kid for the first time. I was

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Speaker 1: all over him last year because it was clear the

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Speaker 1: Iowa State needed more offensively from their point guard to

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Speaker 1: go to the next level. He's not capable of giving that.

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Speaker 1: He's not required to do that with this offense. This year,

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Speaker 1: you'll get Keishawn Gilbert. You'll get Curtis Jones. Mom Chilovich

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Speaker 1: is coming off his best game of the entire season.

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Speaker 1: He gave a twenty four point performance to Colorado with

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Speaker 1: six triples. All lips he needs to do is not

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Speaker 1: turn the ball over and be just an absolutely ferocious

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Speaker 1: on ball defender. Check and check. He's turned the ball

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Speaker 1: over I think twice in his last four games, so

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Speaker 1: he is been sure handed in that regard, and he's

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Speaker 1: one of the best steal artist pickpockets in all of

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Speaker 1: college basketball. I think he's going to really frustrate cam

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Speaker 1: Jones in this game. And then when I get into

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Speaker 1: their top ten defense, especially on their home floor, I

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Speaker 1: think there's so much that they do in terms of

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Speaker 1: film study, in terms of preparation from coach OTTs that

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Speaker 1: Marquette is not just going to roll the balls out

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden score eighty five points in

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Speaker 1: this game. It's not going to be a layup line.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to be uncontested threes. So I really

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Speaker 1: like what they're doing there. Final thing on Lipsey when

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Speaker 1: you look at some of his advanced stats, Evan Miha

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Speaker 1: has him in the ninety ninth percentile. As a defender.

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Speaker 1: For our audience members who are maybe watching college basketball

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Speaker 1: for the first time this year, he's not necessarily you know,

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Speaker 1: a name that everyone is familiar with, you should be.

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Speaker 1: He is the second highest rated point guard in terms

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Speaker 1: of defensive performance in the entire country, and it is

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Speaker 1: a reason why they have an absurd plus seven point

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Speaker 1: seven turnover marchin per game. That I think is going

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Speaker 1: to be the difference here, and also is the difference

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Speaker 1: between them winning this game by one possession, squeezing it

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Speaker 1: out and actually running Marquette off of their home floor,

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Speaker 1: which is what I think is going to happen in

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Speaker 1: this game. Cam Jones, I think will struggle with turnovers

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Speaker 1: as someone who not only needs to facilitate for his teammates,

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Speaker 1: but he needs to be a volume score for them

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Speaker 1: to handle forty minutes of Iowa State basketball. I don't

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Speaker 1: think they get it done. I think Shaka Smart takes

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Speaker 1: a rare road loss and takes it by double digits.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts here on this Big East Big

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Speaker 1: twelve battle.

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Speaker 2: I made a pact with myself about a year ago

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Speaker 2: that I would never ever ever fade Shaka Smart as

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Speaker 2: a road underdog. He's an auto bet for me. Shaka

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Speaker 2: Smart led teams are fifty three and twenty eight against

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Speaker 2: the spread as road dogs. That's sixty five percent hit

387
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Speaker 2: rate plus twenty six percent ROI just sixty six percent

388
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Speaker 2: consistently he's won to Oh this year, I beat the

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Speaker 2: Turfs on the road as road dogs. Also, my big thing,

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Speaker 2: one thing that I'm betting in this matchup is that

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Speaker 2: Iowa States ball screen blitz is vulnerable to crisp passing,

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Speaker 2: elite spacing, and sharp weak side spot up shooting, which

393
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Speaker 2: is that's Shaka smart Cam Jones spread pick and roll offense,

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Speaker 2: that is what they do. So I think Marquette keeps

395
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Speaker 2: it close here.

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Speaker 1: All right, I'm hanging my hat on those backcourt scores.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned, Gilbert and Jones both averaging over sixteen

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Speaker 1: points per game. All right, everybody, put on your green

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Speaker 1: vest waste management slap on whatever gloves you got. We're

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Speaker 1: going picking through the trash here. I think what you're

401
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 1: coming with three picks? I have one of my own.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to talk trash college basketball with you. Let's

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Speaker 1: go lightning round Tanner. What do you got?

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Speaker 2: Lightning round? Two picks. I'll give you a minute on each.

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Speaker 2: The first one Idaho plus four and a half at

406
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Speaker 2: UMKC Kansas City. The Ruse I think you can get.

407
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Speaker 2: If you can get five, that's better, but four better

408
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 2: is playable. The Ruse offense without Jamar Brown is a mess.

409
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Speaker 2: I don't know if he'll be back for this game,

410
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,560
Speaker 2: and Anderson Copp is doing all he can. But the

411
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 2: wing slasher is a solid two way scorer who poured

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Speaker 2: in twenty against Iowa State, and since he went down

413
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 2: against American, UMCC shot seven for twenty five from two

414
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Speaker 2: point range against American, twelve for thirty from two point

415
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,440
Speaker 2: range against Simo forty percent, and they scored only fifteen

416
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 2: pay points against all of these miserable interior defense. But

417
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 2: so since they're not getting good shots down low they're taking,

418
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Speaker 2: they're forcing up like more than half their shots from deep.

419
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,119
Speaker 2: Despite ranking like three hundred and forty fifth nationally in

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00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 2: open three rate, they don't have a single D one

421
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 2: win this season. They shouldn't be laying four against anyone

422
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 2: because they're shooting thirty two percent from two point range. Idaho,

423
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 2: on the flip side, relatively experienced squad. Six of the

424
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 2: Vandals top ten producers from last season in return, and

425
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,239
Speaker 2: they get some key pieces back from injuries. They're off

426
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Speaker 2: a big win against UC Riverside, but they also play

427
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 2: at San Diego and UC Davis really tight, and they're

428
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Speaker 2: gonna run like a lot of ball screen and cutting action.

429
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Speaker 2: They might not get the pick and pops that they

430
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:43,920
Speaker 2: really like to play, but they should be able to

431
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Speaker 2: create offense against a Kansas City interior still trying to

432
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 2: figure out how to replace two big men starters from

433
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 2: last season and are now down an impactful six foot

434
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 2: five wing defender. Give me the Vandals second pick. This

435
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 2: one comes with a condition, but I like Albany plus

436
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 2: four against Columbia. Follow me on Twitter because Albany didn't

437
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 2: have two starters against Georgetown last time out, and this

438
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: play is pretty mu nullified if they're not back. That's

439
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,199
Speaker 2: Byron Joshua and Damar Langford, but I think that might

440
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 2: have been a one off rest situation for Dwayne Killings.

441
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 2: That said, the Lions are good. They also earned votes

442
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 2: in the latest A people. They're not that good. They're

443
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,400
Speaker 2: crazy inflated in the markets because, first.

444
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 1: Of all, my loyal and Maryland Greyhounds almost beat them

445
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,880
Speaker 1: in the opener. It's a nice start for the Greyhounds

446
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 1: this year, but beating Loyola by two is not something

447
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 1: to hang your hat on.

448
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and like, all right, so Columbia's resume so far,

449
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,880
Speaker 2: they beat a screwed up Villanova squad who couldn't play

450
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 2: basketball early in the season, and seven Ken Pop Sub

451
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 2: three hundred squads. They ranks three hundred and sixtieth nationally

452
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,959
Speaker 2: in strength of schedule, So their eight no record is

453
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 2: not really indicative of the Columbia Lions and Albany. You

454
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 2: know it's going to be like a significant step up

455
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 2: in competition for them. As silly as that sounds, Albany

456
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 2: has a lot of issues, but I'm really high on

457
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 2: this team at large. If you follow any of my

458
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 2: America East coverage, you know that this is my long

459
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 2: shot pick to win the America East this year. The

460
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 2: Danes are just really athletic. They have a lot of

461
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 2: untapped upside. Justin Neely's resurgence at the forward spot has

462
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 2: been huge for them from both a scoring and rebounding perspective,

463
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 2: and he can absolutely bully a weaker columbiaan tier that

464
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,719
Speaker 2: does not grade out well against other opposing post up scores.

465
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 2: Amari Marshall, who is their best player, is getting healthier

466
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 2: and is a legitimate twenty point per game three level

467
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 2: scoring COMMO guard as best. I thought Albany's home win

468
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 2: over Siena was a good win. I thought it's road

469
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 2: win over Dartmouth was a good win. They're and they're

470
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 2: off two pretty unlucky performances against Georgetown an American. They

471
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 2: were competing in that Georgetown game against the Hoya until

472
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 2: the Hoyas went crazy in the second half. They hit

473
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 2: like ten straight threes in a row or something without

474
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 2: two starters too. So I think this is a great

475
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 2: bi low cell high spot and if the Danes are healthy,

476
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 2: I'm gonna log it in the Action Network cap so

477
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: you can follow me there.

478
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 1: So Idaho and Albany as promised following the trash, that's

479
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 1: a KYP special. Know your personnel, make sure you get

480
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: injury updates on Jamar Brown. I agree Jamar Brown is

481
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 1: the only one with a pulse on that ruse team.

482
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: If he's not there is the offensive engine. I really

483
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 1: like the Idaho pick. I'm going to go with Fairley

484
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: Dickinson catching two touchdowns against Fordham. I play them down

485
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: to plus eleven and a half. This is too big

486
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: of a number for for him to cover. In my opinion,

487
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: Evan Miha has them dead last, and defensive efficiency in

488
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 1: the a ten shot quality indicates that Fairley Dickinson is

489
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 1: due for positive regression on the shooting front, which is

490
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: really good news because they're already a strong perimeter team

491
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: when it comes to shooting the basketball, knocking down over

492
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: thirty five percent of their threes, So if they're due

493
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 1: for more of those to fall, I think it's going

494
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 1: to be difficult for him to run away with this game.

495
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 1: And then also I get the best player on the court.

496
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,360
Speaker 1: Terrence Brown is one of those players that unfortunately you're

497
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 1: not even going to hear about him in March because

498
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 1: this team's not going to go dancing. But he's one

499
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,879
Speaker 1: of a very small, elect select group that is averaging

500
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: over twenty one points and six rebounds as a guard.

501
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 1: It's him, It's PJ. Haggerty from Memphis, it's Eric Felton

502
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 1: from ECU, and Brown. That's it. That's the entire list

503
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 1: out of all three hundred and sixty plus teams in

504
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 1: Division one college basketball. So the fact of the matter

505
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,719
Speaker 1: is he has played up in competition far greater than

506
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 1: playing at Fordham. He's played Miami Florida, he played Crayton,

507
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 1: he played Nebraska. He averaged twenty points per game in

508
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: those and they covered two of the three and those

509
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: are all big numbers, so they clearly play hard all

510
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 1: the way through the finish line, and I think that's

511
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 1: what you need in a spot like this. Catching double

512
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 1: digits with the Knights. Keith Ergo has done a great

513
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,479
Speaker 1: job at a very tough place to win at Fordham.

514
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily want to throw any dirt on him,

515
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 1: but even with a twenty five win debut season, he's

516
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 1: just sixteen and fourteen against the spread as a home favorite.

517
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 1: I think that they are overvalued in this spot. I'll

518
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 1: take FDU plus fourteen. What do you think about that one, Tanna, Yeah,

519
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 1: I love that one.

520
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 2: FORDHAMO. He's had a great opening season and he hasn't

521
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 2: been as good since. They've been kind of a disappointment since,

522
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: which has been upsetting. So I'm on FDU with you for.

523
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: Tanne McGrath, I'm Mike Calibrey's has been the Big Bets

524
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: on Campus podcast. That's it for us, Thanks so much

525
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 1: for listening and enjoy a phenomenal Wednesday in college shoots.

526
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

527
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is

528
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler