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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by

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Speaker 3: Fan Duel Sportsbook. I'm your host Brendan Glasheen, joined by

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Speaker 3: Sean Zillo.

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward. You know what that means?

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Speaker 3: UFC Betting preview or onto UFC Fight Night, San Antonio

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Speaker 3: going down at the AT and T Center on Saturday Night.

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Speaker 1: Looking at our favorite underdogs, props and more.

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Speaker 3: We'll finish with best bets, of course, as we always do,

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Speaker 3: we start with the main event. Marlon Vera Corey Sandhagen

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Speaker 3: is the matchup for the main event this coming weekend.

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Speaker 3: Vera plus one thirty eight on the money line, san

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Speaker 3: Haagan the favorite minus one seventy, goes down at nine

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Speaker 3: point thirty. Zirillo, what do we make of the matchup

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Speaker 3: and how do we want to bet?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a tremendous fight, more exciting than last

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Speaker 4: week's main event, even though last week was for the

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Speaker 4: Welterweight Championship one p.

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Speaker 5: Thirty five.

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Speaker 4: In my opinion, the strongest division in MMA, top to

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Speaker 4: bottom across all organizations, and my favorite division to watch.

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Speaker 4: Shiava Corey Sanhagen getting close to a title shot here.

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Speaker 4: This matchup will go a long way towards determining who

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Speaker 4: may get that shot down the line. This should be

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Speaker 4: a high paced war. Both guys are super durable. That's

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Speaker 4: why you see the total the fight to go to

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Speaker 4: the decision juice to the over or around to pick them price.

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Speaker 4: Even though this should be very high paced and in

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Speaker 4: a normal fight between two guys fighting at this pace,

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Speaker 4: you would eventually expect somebody to get finished, but I

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Speaker 4: don't necessarily think that's going to be the case here.

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Speaker 4: Both guys are extremely durable. I think the likeliest finish

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Speaker 4: is probably Cheeto via submission, because we've seen Corey get

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Speaker 4: submitted on the ground in the past. I think that

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Speaker 4: is the weakest defensively that either of the two fighters

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Speaker 4: are in any particular area in terms of durability or

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Speaker 4: submission defense. So Cheetoh by submission, I think is your

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Speaker 4: likeliest path to finish here. The way I would go

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Speaker 4: about betting the fight is Cheetoh live after round one. Typically,

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Speaker 4: a slow starter tends to build into his fights the

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Speaker 4: longer he goes. With Corey Sandhagen, we've seen him in

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Speaker 4: a few five round fights where he started out fast,

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Speaker 4: won the early rounds, and then eventually faded in the

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Speaker 4: later rounds. Didn't have a big cardio drop off, but

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Speaker 4: I did think his effectiveness dropped off just the touch

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Speaker 4: in the later rounds enough where Cheeto, as he's building

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Speaker 4: into the fight, should eventually take over late and win

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Speaker 4: the later rounds. This is going to be a fight

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Speaker 4: between Cheeto's moments against Corey's minutes. This is something I

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Speaker 4: talk about all the time with Cheeto Bearer's fights, but

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Speaker 4: he tends to get out struck by his opponents, loses

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Speaker 4: on volume, and then he'll land the biggest punch of

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Speaker 4: the round, wobble his opponent, and usually steal the round.

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Speaker 4: So Cheto is a very difficult guy to handicap. Because

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Speaker 4: of that, the stats don't like him nearly as much

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Speaker 4: as visually when you watch him, he is impressive because

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Speaker 4: of the way he sort of controls the pace of

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Speaker 4: its fights, controls the distance, ramps up, and then hurts

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Speaker 4: his opponents, puts damage on them. His face is also

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Speaker 4: just like made of teflon. He never wears damage and

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Speaker 4: to the judges for optics that's really important because Corey

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Speaker 4: is the one who is going to be the one

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Speaker 4: who looks worse for where at the end of the

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Speaker 4: rounds than at the end of the fight. So I

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Speaker 4: think if you want to justify Corey San Higgins's favoritism here,

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Speaker 4: you need him to hit takedowns and grapple successfully for

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Speaker 4: minutes of this fight and get control time in order

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Speaker 4: to secure more minutes. But if this fight goes through decision,

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Speaker 4: I'm expecting a razor close decision from the judges.

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Speaker 5: So Cheeto at six to.

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Speaker 4: One by decision plus three hundred for a same game

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Speaker 4: parlay with Cheetoh in the over two and a half rounds,

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Speaker 4: Billy's going to give you a same similar angle there

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Speaker 4: as well, So any angle with Cheeto in the fight

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Speaker 4: going longer, Cheetoh by decision. My favorite way is to

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Speaker 4: play this fight addition to a wy bat after round

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Speaker 4: one Billy.

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Speaker 3: There are both worthy wrestlers, but two different styles, right.

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Speaker 3: Sanhagan more creative in his attacks, and then you've got

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Speaker 3: Vera who's got a kickboxing element to his style.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, Chiino Vera is almost a perfect.

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Speaker 7: Storm for these late props that we talk about. He

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Speaker 7: really likes to set up leg kicks, especially early in

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Speaker 7: the fight, which, as we all know, pay dividends later on. Right,

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Speaker 7: you're not going to knock a guy out with one

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Speaker 7: leg kick, but the fifteenth, twentieth, whatever, you know, you

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Speaker 7: get to the third, fourth round.

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Speaker 6: Those really add up. He also has a little bit

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Speaker 6: of that.

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Speaker 7: Peter Yam and him, where he's willing to give up

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Speaker 7: that first round just to kind of see what's going on,

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Speaker 7: feel it out, you know, work for winning down the

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Speaker 7: stretch rather than right away, which I don't like when

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Speaker 7: guys do that in three round fights, but in five

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Speaker 7: round fights, you're giving up one of the five, you know,

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Speaker 7: for paying dividends later on. Really like that angle for him,

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Speaker 7: and that's why he's two and zero fights that have

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Speaker 7: made it past the third round. You know, every time

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Speaker 7: he goes to the championship rounds, he's eventually won. Santagan,

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Speaker 7: there's one in two in fights that have gone out

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Speaker 7: of the three rounds. Obviously, there's some differences in the

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Speaker 7: level of competition with Santaegan, you know, fighting title holders

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Speaker 7: and whatnot, but I still think that's telling as to

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Speaker 7: how these guys are going to fight and where their

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Speaker 7: strengths are. So as Sean alluded to, I'm looking at

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Speaker 7: Vera in the fourth, fifth or decision. You get all

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Speaker 7: three of those options at FanDuel at plus three thirty,

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Speaker 7: very similar.

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Speaker 6: To the over two and a half.

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Speaker 7: You know, you're getting a slightly better price to give

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Speaker 7: up the last half of the third round. But I

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Speaker 7: think if Cheeto is to win this, it's gonna happen late.

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Speaker 7: I wouldn't be surprised by a late stoppage, maybe by

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Speaker 7: leg kicks like he's done in the past, But decision

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Speaker 7: is probably you know where we're getting the most bang

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Speaker 7: for your buck on that. But I'm willing to take

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Speaker 7: a little bit worse odds just so I get fourth

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Speaker 7: and fifth round finishes in there.

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Speaker 4: Billy, I'm just curious if this goes to a decision,

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Speaker 4: if we knew it was going to a decision guarantee

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Speaker 4: going to the fight, where would you put Corey fifty

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Speaker 4: five sixty percent?

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Speaker 7: Honestly, I think I might favorite Cheeto just because of

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Speaker 7: the five round it. Like, I'm going to be pretty

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Speaker 7: confident that she does fourth and fifth rounds right, So

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Speaker 7: if he can get one of the first three, he

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Speaker 7: should probably be a favorite here.

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Speaker 6: That's a big if though as.

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Speaker 4: You yeah, you know, it's it's purely just the odds

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Speaker 4: that scrap and Zy like. I think we both see

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Speaker 4: it being razor close if it goes five rounds, and

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Speaker 4: the odds suggest that Corey is much more likely to

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Speaker 4: win a decision. So I think that's why we're both

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Speaker 4: leading Cheeto. We see much more decision equity on his

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Speaker 4: side than the market's getting in credit for.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, for sure.

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Speaker 3: You can also read actionnetwork dot com. Billy Ward has

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Speaker 3: a UFC San Antonio luck ratings article out. He's been

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Speaker 3: doing that for every fight, and one of the first

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Speaker 3: things he hits on the main event, he's got Vera

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Speaker 3: undervalued for.

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Speaker 1: The coming weekend.

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Speaker 3: But as these guys mentioned, it's not necessarily the money

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Speaker 3: line play, but it's getting involved in the fight once

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Speaker 3: it is underwing after real.

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Speaker 6: Quick on that one.

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Speaker 7: The whole thesis on him being undervalued is because it's

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Speaker 7: a five round fight. I think these odds are spot

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Speaker 7: on if it were a three round fight. But I

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Speaker 7: like Vera late, and I like his cardio and all

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Speaker 7: those things. So kind of all plays into where Zarello

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Speaker 7: saying it what I'm saying at all points the same direction.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Cory Sanagan beats Song and Dong in a five

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Speaker 4: round fight. But the way that fight was trending at

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Speaker 4: the end, I had Corey and I was getting a

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Speaker 4: little nervous that Song was gonna take over late and

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Speaker 4: when the final two rounds lost by kut stoppage. Cheeto

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Speaker 4: fought Song in a three round fight, got started slow,

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Speaker 4: didn't win the second round because he got going a

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Speaker 4: little bit too late and lost the close decision.

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Speaker 5: So just like in terms of how those.

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Speaker 4: Five round fights would have played out, I think Cheetah

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Speaker 4: wins a five round fight versus Song. I think Corey

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Speaker 4: probably would have lost a five round fight versus Song.

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Speaker 4: So just a little bit of trajectories that we would

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Speaker 4: view these fighters differently if they had those different marks

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Speaker 4: on their records as well.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Onto our favorite underdog plays for the weekend. So

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Speaker 3: Vera's a dog, but that's not a dog we're eyeing.

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Speaker 3: And just as a reminder, there are twelve fights this

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Speaker 3: week and one fight was canceled. Twelve fights, six on

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Speaker 3: the main card, six prelim fights Shonzrella.

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Speaker 1: Where do you see value for underdogs?

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Speaker 5: I like Trey Agen about plus one thirty five.

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Speaker 4: I don't like being in a spot where I'm backing

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Speaker 4: a guy who was outstruck by Jordan leave It, which

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Speaker 4: is scary, and then who beat me as a plus

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Speaker 4: three to ten underdog because the guy back, Daniel L. Hooper,

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Speaker 4: refused to engage him for three rounds. But I think

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Speaker 4: this is a much better matchup for Trey og than

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Speaker 4: that he's had in either of his first two UFC matchups,

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Speaker 4: mostly because he's fighting a guy in Torres who is

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Speaker 4: this pure early finisher archetype. We see these matchups a

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Speaker 4: lot between UFC vets, guys who we know can fight

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Speaker 4: for fifteen minutes and fighters who are on the come

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Speaker 4: up prospects usually making their UFCA debut, who typically finished

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Speaker 4: proponents in the first round and have virtually no record

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Speaker 4: of being extended in fights. And when these fighters get

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Speaker 4: extended for the first time at the UFC level, typically

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Speaker 4: they're at a cardio disadvantage and drop off in the

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Speaker 4: later rounds. Now, we don't have a ton of information

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Speaker 4: about Torres after the first round, but this is kind

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Speaker 4: of the spot that I automatically back as long as

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Speaker 4: I see an edge, and I projected Ogden closer to

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Speaker 4: plus one ten so as long as I see that edge,

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Speaker 4: I'm happy to back this type of spot. UFC VET

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Speaker 4: establish has decent cardio against the guy whose cardio is

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Speaker 4: unknown and is likely to be at a cardio disadvantage

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Speaker 4: after the first round. Torrez relies on getting submissions early.

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Speaker 4: Ogden has pretty good submission defense. I actually think he's

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Speaker 4: the better grappler here. So provided Ogden survives that first round,

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Speaker 4: would look to live better inm after round one, and

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Speaker 4: I'll be happy to have my pre fight money line

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Speaker 4: ticket on him going into round two. So let's add

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Speaker 4: more after round one on Ogden, But I think pre

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Speaker 4: fight he's worth making better on as well in the

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Speaker 4: event that he wins that first round.

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Speaker 1: Billy underdog that you like for the weekend.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I really like Austin Lingo. He's somewhere in the

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Speaker 7: plus one seventy, plus four and eighty range against Nate

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Speaker 7: Land where if anyone's watched in late Land where fight

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Speaker 7: he is far more interested in earning the fight of

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Speaker 7: the night bonus than he is interested in winning the fight.

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Speaker 6: You know, he comes out in brawls.

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Speaker 7: He was about to finish David o'ama, but instead of

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Speaker 7: putting him away, kind of danced around and played to

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Speaker 7: the crowd and did all kinds of crazy stuff. But

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Speaker 7: here's the thing, he's a brawler. I think Austin Lingo

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Speaker 7: is going to engage in that too. He's got a

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Speaker 7: little bit of that in but has never landed a

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Speaker 7: knockdown in the UFC. He doesn't have great power, where

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Speaker 7: Lingo has scored knockdowns in both of his last two fights.

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Speaker 6: So it's a.

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Speaker 7: Pretty simple calculation for me here where guys are just

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Speaker 7: gonna stand in trade, and I know one of them

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Speaker 7: can put the other one down and the other one

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Speaker 7: probably can't, I'm gonna take the guy with a better

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Speaker 7: power because even if he gets outstruck, he lands that

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Speaker 7: big one, he's got a shot at putting him away.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 7: Normally that's one where I then would like to bet

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Speaker 7: the ko prop but Land where seems to just be

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Speaker 7: made out of iron and unable to die. Ever, you know,

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Speaker 7: like no one can put him away despite really putting

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Speaker 7: a lot of damage on him in his last few fights.

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Speaker 6: So that's a little bit scary for me.

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Speaker 7: But at plus one seventy plus one eighty range on

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Speaker 7: the underdog, that's more than enough for me. When a

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Speaker 7: guy's got the power advantage in a fight, there's.

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Speaker 6: Just gonna be a war. They're not. There's not gonna

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Speaker 6: be much technique. You know, if you like jiu jitsu,

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Speaker 6: you can skip this fight. These guys are just gonna slug.

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Speaker 4: It out, even the finish, even times where he has

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Speaker 4: been finished, Land where like immediately pops up and is

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Speaker 4: protesting too. So yeah, it seems like you need to

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Speaker 4: hit him with the literal land bill to knock him out.

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Speaker 1: Onto the fight of the night.

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Speaker 3: Sean and Billy highlight a fight that they think deserves

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Speaker 3: some extra attention and a fight they like to bet.

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Speaker 3: And they've got Manelkop taking on Alex Perez for the

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Speaker 3: coming weekend. Why why does this one stand out to

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Speaker 3: us Cerrillo and how do we want to bet this one?

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Speaker 4: Really exciting flylight matchup. I think these are two, I'd

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Speaker 4: say two of the top five flylights in the world,

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Speaker 4: and I think either of them could justify themselves as

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Speaker 4: a potential title challenger with a couple of wins. I'd

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Speaker 4: say two more wins and the winner here will get

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Speaker 4: a title shot. So win this matchup, win another fight,

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Speaker 4: and you'll be in a title matchup skill for skill,

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Speaker 4: I think Alex Prez is the better fighter, but he

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Speaker 4: has some durability issues. He tends to get submitted in

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Speaker 4: his fights. I don't love how he reacts to taking damage,

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Speaker 4: and Manel Cop hits very hard. Former Risen champion, We've

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Speaker 4: seen his skill level up over time. His events of

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Speaker 4: grappling I think has improved. I don't think he's going

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Speaker 4: to be able to stop takedowns from Perez here early necessarily, though, Perez,

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Speaker 4: if he wants to put him on the mat, I

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Speaker 4: think he can get him there. Cop does have some

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Speaker 4: creative submission skills from his back. I threw up a

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Speaker 4: couple of Kamuras in his last fight that almost got there.

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Speaker 4: That's not a submission you typically pulled off in the

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Speaker 4: UFC at this stage, but he's so strong he almost

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Speaker 4: did it. So I think this is a pretty binary

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Speaker 4: fight where Cop has more finishing upside. He could get

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Speaker 4: submitted to, but I think he has vastly more finishing upside,

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Speaker 4: and I view Perez as the superior minute winner. So

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Speaker 4: I'm actually playing this fight from two different perspectives, not

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Speaker 4: something and normally do, but I saw pretty clear value

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Speaker 4: on Cop inside the distance at around plus one twenty

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Speaker 4: plus one ten, and then also Perez by decision at

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Speaker 4: around plus five hundred, so what I did plus five fifty.

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Speaker 4: So what I did was put zero point three units

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Speaker 4: on Cop inside the distance, point one on Perez by decision.

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Speaker 4: If either of those hit a one about a quarter unit.

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Speaker 4: Neither of those hit lose about a third of a unit.

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Speaker 4: So playing both sides of this fight, I think that's

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Speaker 4: a decent way to go about it.

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Speaker 5: I know Billy is gonna mention a live bet. The

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Speaker 5: only reason I don't like.

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Speaker 4: It is that I think Copp will actually be dangerous

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Speaker 4: for the duration of the fight. I think he will

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Speaker 4: retain his knockout power for all three rounds, so I

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Speaker 4: wouldn't want to add more on the Prez side and

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Speaker 4: then just sort of over emphasize where I allocated my

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Speaker 4: units in the fight and end up, you know, breaking

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Speaker 4: even or losing.

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Speaker 6: So that that.

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Speaker 4: Structure that I built out the cops small inside the

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Speaker 4: distance and then pres smaller by decision, is how I

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Speaker 4: go about playing it.

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Speaker 3: Six of Perez's last seven bouts have finished in round one.

304
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Speaker 3: That is remarkable stuff, but so essentially you're hedging out.

305
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Speaker 1: Of the gate.

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Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, I think you know, there's somewhere I show

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Speaker 4: value on two sides of a fight and I end

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Speaker 4: up playing both. Usually I'll just pick one and sort

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Speaker 4: of go with that. But I think this is a

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Speaker 4: pretty binary angle where I could stand a profit a

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Speaker 4: little bit on either side by poking both, and I'm

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Speaker 4: comfortable losing a third of a unit, you know, trying

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Speaker 4: to win a quarter on the other side.

314
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Speaker 3: Billy cop first round, Is that something you're looking towards

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Speaker 3: because of Perez's struggles early on the last couple of fights.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, obviously, Zarila and I are seeing this very similarly.

317
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Speaker 7: I'm just taking a little bit bigger swing on round

318
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Speaker 7: one versus inside the distance. In general, the thing I

319
00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:21,720
Speaker 7: had noticed with Perez is he really likes to settle

320
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,840
Speaker 7: in there, and you know, we touch gloves, we step back,

321
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 7: we kind of start going, and guys who come right

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Speaker 7: out of the gate and just blitz him give him

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Speaker 7: a really, really hard time. He really doesn't like that.

324
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Speaker 7: It's something I've seen and experienced myself, where sometimes you

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Speaker 7: kind of have this unspoken rhythm that we're going to

326
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Speaker 7: step back, we're going to feel each other out, We're

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Speaker 7: going to throw some jabs, and when guys break that,

328
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Speaker 7: it can be very disorienting. It can be a big challenge,

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Speaker 7: and that's happened a couple times to Prez. Both of

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Speaker 7: his last two fights, he got pressured right out of

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Speaker 7: the gate and did not respond.

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Speaker 6: Well.

333
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Speaker 7: If I'm Cop, I've seen that, I'm going to charge

334
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Speaker 7: forward right ahead. On the other hand, Perez has you know,

335
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Speaker 7: a win by leg kicks, really good wrestling. Those are

336
00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:00,440
Speaker 7: both things that build as the fight go on, similar

337
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:01,920
Speaker 7: to what we talked to with Vera, but with the

338
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,280
Speaker 7: added bonus of wrestling. Zarillo touched on the submissions that

339
00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,600
Speaker 7: Cop throws up, which is great. You know, if you

340
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,000
Speaker 7: can get it to work, it's awesome. But when you

341
00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,240
Speaker 7: don't tap the guy out, you're losing the round because

342
00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:13,680
Speaker 7: he doesn't try to get back to his feet and

343
00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,080
Speaker 7: strike again. He likes to play off his back, try

344
00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,920
Speaker 7: to set up Kumora's primarily also some triangles and some

345
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:23,080
Speaker 7: other stuff which is risky. So that's obviously the pres

346
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 7: by decision line. I included pres live or by decision.

347
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,520
Speaker 7: I'm not so sure that I'm going to be watching

348
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:30,200
Speaker 7: this one live, so I'm going to go half a

349
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,200
Speaker 7: unit each on Cop in round one and pres by decision.

350
00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,160
Speaker 6: So pretty much exact same thesis to Sean, just.

351
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,680
Speaker 7: A little bit a little bit more aggressive with the

352
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Speaker 7: Cop round one. I don't see him getting a late

353
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Speaker 7: finish because once Perez settles in there, he's going to

354
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:45,160
Speaker 7: pick up some lake kicks. He's going to tire him

355
00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,640
Speaker 7: out with some grappling, and that slows down cops power.

356
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:50,400
Speaker 1: Go to the prop market.

357
00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,160
Speaker 3: And we talked a lot about round one for that

358
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Speaker 3: particular fight Cop and Perez Zarillo. There's a fight you're

359
00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:01,840
Speaker 3: eyeing to bet live in the second and third rounds.

360
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:03,640
Speaker 1: Where you could see some potential value.

361
00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's three different fights where I like fighters to

362
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,480
Speaker 4: win either in round two or round three. So I

363
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 4: sprinkled all three of those. Billy already talked about. Then

364
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,480
Speaker 4: eight Landweer fight against Austin Lingo. I think Lingo and

365
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,840
Speaker 4: Landwears is going to be extremely competitive for a round,

366
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 4: and then I think Landwear is going to drown him

367
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,240
Speaker 4: with cardio. Landwhere former college track athlete doesn't have a

368
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,560
Speaker 4: lot of powers, Billy said, but he does put a

369
00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,400
Speaker 4: pace on people and wear them down with his cardio

370
00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,320
Speaker 4: and his pace. I actually also like wand Wheer to

371
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 4: win by submission in that matchup. We've seen him snatch

372
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,600
Speaker 4: up submissions in the past. I know Billy said there

373
00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:36,760
Speaker 4: won't be jiu jitsu in that fight, but I actually

374
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 4: could see him finishing that one via submission. He's done

375
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 4: it in the past against Ludivi Klein in the UFC's

376
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,000
Speaker 4: plus nine to fifty by sub for Landwear there, I

377
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 4: think is an interesting price. But plus six fifty round two,

378
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 4: plus nine to fifty round three, in addition to a

379
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,600
Speaker 4: livebet after round one, and then a very similar angle

380
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:59,200
Speaker 4: Tucker Lutz going against Pineda and then CJ. Vergara going

381
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,680
Speaker 4: against potentially the fighter with the worst cardio in UFC history,

382
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 4: and Daniel L.

383
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:03,720
Speaker 5: Serda.

384
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:06,360
Speaker 4: Both of those fighters, let's the winning round two plus

385
00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 4: five hundred round three at plus one thousand, and then

386
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 4: Virgara plus five hundred and plus twelve hundred, respectively, sprinkling

387
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:15,359
Speaker 4: all to win in round two, all to win in

388
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,320
Speaker 4: round three, and then looking to live at each of

389
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,440
Speaker 4: them after round one. I think all of their fights

390
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 4: are going to be competitive for five minutes, and then

391
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,400
Speaker 4: each of them should take over to a significant degree.

392
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,119
Speaker 4: With the cardio advantage, so we actually only need to

393
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 4: hit one of those six props in order to break

394
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,200
Speaker 4: even on the three fights, and I feel pretty confident

395
00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,320
Speaker 4: we're going to get two of them.

396
00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 1: Billy, where you seeing value in the prop market?

397
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,640
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm going much less aggressive than Zailla on this one.

398
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,719
Speaker 7: I'm looking at cheating note Jakani, which I probably butchered.

399
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 7: The last name might be the hardest one this week.

400
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 7: He's about a minus one seventy favorite against Albert Durie,

401
00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 7: but you can get him by knockout at plus one

402
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 7: twenty or inside the distance at plus one ten or

403
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 7: so I'm kind of okay with either. Dura Let's start

404
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,520
Speaker 7: with che Cheaty has won his last four fights, including

405
00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 7: Contender series in PFL, all by knockout. A ton of

406
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,840
Speaker 7: power comes out aggressively, and we saw darre I have

407
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,080
Speaker 7: get pieced up pretty badly by walking. Buckley finally stopped

408
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 7: because his eye swelled shot, but it probably could have

409
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 7: been stopped a couple times before that. And Cheaty is

410
00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,440
Speaker 7: much bigger, much more powerful, much more reached than Buckley.

411
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 7: Buckley's dropped into one seventy, right, so Cheaty is a

412
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 7: much bigger guy. It's one of those where if Cheaty's

413
00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,080
Speaker 7: gonna win, it's almost certainly a knockout or inside the distance.

414
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:30,440
Speaker 7: I don't see Derrev having the durability to.

415
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 6: Lose for fifteen minutes. He's either gonna win or get finished.

416
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 7: So when you can get a guy at minus one

417
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 7: seventy who is most likely path the victory is plus

418
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,159
Speaker 7: one twenty, that feels like a pretty good one for me.

419
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,479
Speaker 3: Okay, as we normally do, we wrap with best bets.

420
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 3: I will say in preface before we do that that

421
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 3: Billy and Seawan think all of.

422
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,919
Speaker 1: These bets are their best bets, right Sean.

423
00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 4: No, none of these bets are my best bets this week.

424
00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 4: I really don't like that's true.

425
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,200
Speaker 3: You've mentioned a hedge, and you've mentioned a few sprinkles,

426
00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:57,639
Speaker 3: so that's.

427
00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: Fair I have.

428
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 4: You know, normally I have about five and a half

429
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 4: units risked on a UFC card. This week I have

430
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:03,959
Speaker 4: three and a half and I don't have more than

431
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:05,920
Speaker 4: a half unit in any fight, and lots of them

432
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,159
Speaker 4: are like zero point one here, point one there. So

433
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 4: this is not a best bets card. This is not

434
00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,919
Speaker 4: like a allocate a bunch of the money lines. This

435
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,400
Speaker 4: is take a lot of small shots, have fun with it.

436
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 4: It's a Saturday night a little bit to Jenny. But

437
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 4: at the same time, we're gonna search for those like

438
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 4: plus five to fifty decision props.

439
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 5: Hope to hit a couple and break even.

440
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 1: Okay, So what's your best bet?

441
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 5: My best bet? And you know, normally when I throught

442
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 5: an underdog, I give.

443
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 1: For all that we still have one.

444
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna go Trey Ogden and plus one thirty five.

445
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 4: I just like the angle. This is the type of

446
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:44,239
Speaker 4: bet that I place on almost every card, which is

447
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:50,199
Speaker 4: UFC prospect going against an established UFC VET who's had

448
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 4: at least a couple of fights with proven cardio, and

449
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,680
Speaker 4: the prospect is an early finisher who is very likely

450
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 4: to fade after the first round. So Ogden pre fight,

451
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 4: kew about plus one two twenty Oggin live after round

452
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 4: one and then in round robins. I may have Ogden's

453
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 4: decision prop as well. I showed value on that prop.

454
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 4: Don't necessarily know how tours is going to look if

455
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 4: this fight extends, So don't want to be banking on

456
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 4: an Ogden decision, you know, with a pre fight bet.

457
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 4: But I'll throw it into round robin and maybe it

458
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 4: gets there.

459
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 3: All right, Billy, take us home your best bet for

460
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,159
Speaker 3: UFC San Antonio.

461
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm with Ceria. It's really hard to pick out

462
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 6: one of these.

463
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 7: Like I had an overall winning week last week, and

464
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 7: then we tanked our best bet just because you know,

465
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 7: we like all these bets. Right, there's not one necessarily

466
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 7: as much better than the others, but you know, a

467
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 7: gun to my head for this one, I'm going with

468
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 7: Trevin Giles at minus one ten, minus one fifteen, depend

469
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 7: on where you look. Really similar to what Zerula was saying.

470
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 7: He's fighting Preston Parsons, who only has two UFC fights.

471
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 7: He's one and one, but his win was against a

472
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 7: lightweight who stepped up on like three days notice. So

473
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 7: in my book, Preston Parsons has never never really beat

474
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 7: a UFC welterweight. Trevin Giles around a long time, had

475
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 7: a little winning streak going, but he ran into Dric

476
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 7: his duplay. His at one eighty five, came back down

477
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 7: to one seventy, has looked better, and it's a similar

478
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,880
Speaker 7: game where you know Preston Parsons, he's pressed and pressure

479
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,640
Speaker 7: of Parsons because he comes out so aggressively. I think

480
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 7: Guyles can wear him down. You know, been around a

481
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 7: long time, should be the bigger, stronger guy, and Parsons

482
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,119
Speaker 7: hasn't had to fight bigger stronger guys yet, so you know,

483
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 7: basically a coin flip. I'm willing to take Gyles on

484
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:28,880
Speaker 7: that and make the prove it against the UFC level

485
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 7: guy his own size.

486
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,919
Speaker 3: Okay, Fellas, So it sounds to me like this is

487
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 3: a card that you're not as attracted to than other cards.

488
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 4: Now, some good fights from a viewing perspective, actually maybe

489
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 4: even better than last week's pay per view in terms

490
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 4: of an overall viewing perspective. But from a betting perspective,

491
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 4: this is a difficult card. Like I said, though, those

492
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 4: those round two, round three props, like I'm excited to

493
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 4: bet those, you know, those plus six hundreds plus nine fifties,

494
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 4: I just don't have more than point one unit on

495
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 4: any of those bets. So across like seven different bets,

496
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 4: I don't even have three quarters of unit there. So

497
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 4: that's it's just a lot of small pokes this week.

498
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 4: But hopefully we cashed some nice plus money tickets and

499
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 4: maybe even around Robin heads.

500
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, I actually like cards like this a little bit better.

501
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 7: When we're taking a little bit longer shots, you kind

502
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,400
Speaker 7: of just need one to pay off your whole night.

503
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 7: When you're batting guys at minus one eighty minus two

504
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 7: to fifty, it's just terrifying, Like it's no fun watching those.

505
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 7: You know, we sweating out your plus six hundred ticket,

506
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 7: that's fun.

507
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 6: We all like that.

508
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 4: So yeah, there's no sweat period, Like it's just pure enjoyment.

509
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 4: You know, sweating out like a minus one forty money

510
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 4: line that you drop two units on in an MMA fight.

511
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 4: That's not the most enjoyable fifteen minutes of your life.

512
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 4: But yes, not really. Sweating these plus six hundreds are

513
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 4: rooting them on is actually pretty enjoyable.

514
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 3: So it's a good reminder that bank roll management matters

515
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 3: and you don't have to go all in each and

516
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 3: ear no.

517
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 4: You know, I lost the big beat last week on

518
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 4: Physive Like that was one of my biggest bets of

519
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 4: the year. I was very confident in it. It was

520
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 4: my best bet, and I lost. Sometimes you have a

521
00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,080
Speaker 4: very confident read and it loses. Sometimes you're not that

522
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 4: confident and the bet wins. You know, it is a

523
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 4: reminder potentially to keep your unit sizing similar, allocate all

524
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 4: the same to most of your bets, and don't fluctuate

525
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 4: because you don't really know anything more than the market

526
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 4: does in the long run. Like you, you may be

527
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 4: betting into value, but the line is probably closer to

528
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 4: accurate than you think.

529
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 3: It is a good way to wrap up our UFC

530
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 3: Fight Night betting preview San Antonio at and T Center

531
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 3: this coming weekend. Thanks for tuning in everybody here on

532
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast, we are presented by FanDuel. As

533
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 3: a reminder, we have our March Madness Player Props episode

534
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 3: coming your way for the Final Four next Thursday.

535
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: That'll be out.

536
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 3: Also, more college hoops over on the Big Bets on

537
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 3: Campus podcast. The entire college basketball crew weighing in during

538
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 3: the tournament, so you have that to look forward to.

539
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: Also baseball, I think Seanzilla will be involved in this

540
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 3: in some capacity. Monday and Tuesday of next week will

541
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 3: be released seeing American League and National League best bets.

542
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 3: Also more baseball on Payoff Pitch, So on the Action

543
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 3: Network podcast we have league specific best bets on this

544
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 3: particular podcast next week and then Payoff Pitch if you

545
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 3: want more deep dives on baseball that's coming your way

546
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,719
Speaker 3: with Opening Day less than a week away. Find more

547
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 3: from Sean and Billy on the Action Network app also

548
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 3: the website. As I mentioned, Billy has his Luck ratings

549
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 3: out so you can find a value for any UFC

550
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 3: fight card and.

551
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 1: For this weekend in particular. Best of luck this weekend, everybody.

552
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time on the Action Network podcast.

553
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. If you or

554
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

555
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler