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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. I don't want to be complainant.

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Speaker 1: There are things the world should be worrying about, but

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Speaker 1: it's just not as bad a world if some people

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Speaker 1: are saying, for what most families care about, it's not

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Speaker 1: g d P growth of the size of the economy

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Speaker 1: as a whole. That's how they're doing. Real capital investment

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Speaker 1: is gray below average. Why because businesspeople are very uncertain

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Speaker 1: about the future. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world

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Speaker 1: of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good Morning,

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee along with Tom Keene. It is seven am

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street, seven am in Washington, d C. Where

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Speaker 1: we find ourselves this morning watching the whaling and gnashing

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Speaker 1: of teeth among Republicans the day after Super Tuesday, tom

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Speaker 1: a big night for Donald Trump and Ted Cruises. Chris

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Speaker 1: Kliza of The Washington Post says, the man the Party fears,

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Speaker 1: and the man and the Party loaves. I was transfixed

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Speaker 1: by all the different political covers, including Bloomberg Politics last

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Speaker 1: evening between about seven thirty and really into the eleven

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Speaker 1: o'clock hour. I can honestly say, Mike, I've never seen

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Speaker 1: it before. Beginning for Hillary Clinton as well. We'll talk

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Speaker 1: a lot about politics today. Al Hunt, Jared Bernstein, Libby

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Speaker 1: Cantwell from Pimco, and Lonnie Chin from the Rubio campaign

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Speaker 1: will be joining us. As for the markets this morning,

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Speaker 1: one step forward, one step back. Not the primary campaign,

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Speaker 1: it's the markets these days. Uh. This morning, Asia and

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Speaker 1: Europe are higher, the U, S and UK lower, Shanghai

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Speaker 1: finishing up four point three percent, Tokyo four percent. That

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Speaker 1: carried over into the European markets, but the UK and

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Speaker 1: US not so much. Right now, the stock six hundred

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Speaker 1: is up by a point a quarter of a percentage

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Speaker 1: point and the decks by thirty eight points four tents,

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Speaker 1: but the FUSS down twenty points right now, three tents

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Speaker 1: of eight percent. And in the US there hasn't made

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Speaker 1: much movement in futures all morning. S ANDP features down

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Speaker 1: about five points, about two tents of a percent, dal

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Speaker 1: Emnities off by two tens as well as thirty five

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Speaker 1: points on that index today, and the nastac on minies

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Speaker 1: five points lower, just over a tenth of eight percent. Now.

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Speaker 1: The bond market is lower today. Strong economic date well,

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Speaker 1: strong GIR economic data yesterday and a big day in

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Speaker 1: the economy ahead, with the ADP numbers coming out at

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Speaker 1: eight fifteen Wall Street Time tenure note yield one point

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Speaker 1: eight four percent, the five year one point three three

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Speaker 1: and the two year is up to eighty five basis

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Speaker 1: points this morning. So that is something we're gonna cat

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Speaker 1: in a job to day on Friday. We forgot today,

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Speaker 1: We're Fridaasses. We're starting the long slide into jobs Day.

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Speaker 1: In the Super Friday, Super Super Friday, we'll see how

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Speaker 1: many delegates were hired in the US this past Monday.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely Bloomberg Surveillance from Washington this morning. Good morning, f

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Speaker 1: M in Washington. In Baltimore. Uh, We're brought to you

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Speaker 1: by Investco. Factor based strategies can help investors focus on

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Speaker 1: a high quality, low volatility and more. Learn more and

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Speaker 1: investco dot com slash high conviction. Brian Miwski is the

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Speaker 1: chief investment strategist at BMO Capital and he is joining

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Speaker 1: us from our New York studios. He he went there

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Speaker 1: when he heard we were coming here. You were telling

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Speaker 1: Tom earlier, Brian, this is the largest stealth bull market

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Speaker 1: of our collective careers. But is it still that? How

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Speaker 1: would you characterize where we are after the big sell

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Speaker 1: off and clawing back somewhat. That would exactly call it

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Speaker 1: clawing back. And we think that clearly it was a

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Speaker 1: tough January. You know, January itself kind of felt like

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Speaker 1: a whole year, and most of my clients around the

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Speaker 1: world are pretty tired and pretty stressed out after what

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Speaker 1: happened in January. So we had a nice little snap back.

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Speaker 1: And now everybody seems to be be believing, uh that

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Speaker 1: emerging markets are coming back and comminities are coming back,

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Speaker 1: and so I think that's why you've seen a bit

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Speaker 1: of rerating of equities from from the stealth commentary. You know,

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Speaker 1: people still don't believe it because we're still kind of

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Speaker 1: in the bunker that we're playing the rope adope strategy

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Speaker 1: with respect equities were just waiting to take a punch

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Speaker 1: from a longer term perspective, and until we get some

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Speaker 1: clarity with respect to GDP growth and earnings growth and

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Speaker 1: and from a from a at least near term perspective's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. Politically here in America. It's gonna take some

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Speaker 1: time to build credibility again for this whole notion of investing.

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Speaker 1: So two thousand sixteen is your reset year within our

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Speaker 1: twenty year Bowl market thesis, which we've been talking about,

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Speaker 1: uh since late two thousand and eight to early two

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Speaker 1: thousand nine. And uh, you know, we think equities from

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Speaker 1: a longer term perspective are still the place to be,

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Speaker 1: but we're gonna see some volatility heading into the summer

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Speaker 1: and into the fall. So one step forward and yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think so. But the other thing, you've got to

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Speaker 1: be careful with some of that, because it's pretty consensus

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Speaker 1: now that you read all the blogs and the Twitter

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Speaker 1: machines and things like that in terms of this is

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Speaker 1: the biggest, biggest sell the rally market that we've seen. Remember,

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Speaker 1: the majority of institutional investors have not been around uh

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Speaker 1: post are pre pre two thousand, so they really don't

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Speaker 1: know what a quote unquote real cycle is. A real

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Speaker 1: cycle is earning to go up, uh, the economy goes up,

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Speaker 1: interest rates go up. Uh, And so we haven't seen

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Speaker 1: that in a while. Nobody believes that stocks can go

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Speaker 1: up if the dollar and interest rates go up, because again,

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Speaker 1: we haven't seen any investors at around in the eighties

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Speaker 1: and nineties. So we think we're involved with an investor

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Speaker 1: base that lack perspective. Unfortunately, Brian, there's proof that Michael

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Speaker 1: McKee and I went to the Washington Capitals Pittsburgh Penguins

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Speaker 1: game last night, maybe the most extraordinary set of talent

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Speaker 1: I've ever seen on the ice. How do you construct

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Speaker 1: a portfolio around your strategy like the Washington Capitals? How

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Speaker 1: do you do that? You find good athletes, you find

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Speaker 1: good stocks, and you stick with them. And that's really

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Speaker 1: the era of active investing. And I know a lot

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Speaker 1: of my competitors and patriots have talked about this, but

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Speaker 1: let me try to explain it. If your portfolio manager,

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Speaker 1: you want to own less names, you want to own

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Speaker 1: thirty five to forty names, and a concentrated portfolio, you

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Speaker 1: want to be overweight at four percent in a core

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Speaker 1: position at two and a half three percent, and you

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Speaker 1: want to initiate position that one percent with respect to stocks,

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Speaker 1: and as the market rallies, you peel off a little

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Speaker 1: bit and and the market rolls over, you want to

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Speaker 1: buy a little bit more. And that's what that's what

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Speaker 1: you should be doing in stocks like Apple and Comcast

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Speaker 1: and twenty century Fox and and Costco and these names

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Speaker 1: that continue to be we believed for positions from a

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Speaker 1: longer term perspective, and Mike, I I thought that that

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Speaker 1: was brilliant what you just heard from Mr bell Ski.

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Speaker 1: I would also suggest Mike that within the mathiness of it,

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Speaker 1: to be diversified across sectors. Within that portfolio discussion is

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Speaker 1: far more important than worrying about individual stock diversification. It's

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Speaker 1: critical what groups you're in as you construct thirty five

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Speaker 1: to forty stocks. So you don't worry about having Alexander Ovechkin.

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Speaker 1: You've gotta have three or four good life. He's no

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Speaker 1: good without those guys that t j Oshi Good morning St.

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Speaker 1: Louis Sirius XM Channel one nineteen. Without t j Oshie,

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Speaker 1: your portfolio doesn't go up. We're we're not going to

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Speaker 1: mention the Canadians, Brian when we won't make you feel

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Speaker 1: bad this morning. Instead, let's ask about the political world.

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Speaker 1: When does Wall Street take account of the outlook for

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Speaker 1: the election? On surveillance this morning, we were outlining some

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Speaker 1: of the candidate's economic plans. You've got Hillary Clinton, who

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Speaker 1: wants to take on the financial sector, UH, extend regulation. There,

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Speaker 1: You've got Donald Trump, who wants to spend more money

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Speaker 1: than the US has According to the calculations if his portfolio.

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Speaker 1: What do people take this seriously? We'll tell me something

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Speaker 1: I already don't know, right. I mean, the the issue

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Speaker 1: with respect to financials has been a bowlmarket and compliance

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Speaker 1: since two thousand one. Many people think that this whole

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Speaker 1: compliance situation and regulation really started in two thousand and eight,

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Speaker 1: two thousand nine, post the crisis. Now that's been going

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Speaker 1: on since since two thousand, two thousand one, post the

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Speaker 1: tech bubble, and so picking on financials I think is

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Speaker 1: a is a headline type of thing because people still

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Speaker 1: have a general distress for financials. We've been on record

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Speaker 1: by saying we think it's a generational opportunity to buy

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Speaker 1: big financials here in America and Canada because we think

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Speaker 1: they're exquisitely well run that under God's massive structural change

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Speaker 1: since two thousand seven two eight, and we think they're

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Speaker 1: appropriately positioned to take on more of a wealth management

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Speaker 1: type feel and a big asset type bundling feel, especially

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Speaker 1: considering that the economy is improving, interest rates are going

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Speaker 1: to go up and as we start to see yields

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Speaker 1: put pressure with respective performance in principle on bond. Something

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Speaker 1: that that Tom talks about a lot. We are going

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Speaker 1: to finally see this great rotation that nobody's talking about again,

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Speaker 1: because it's clearly hasn't happened. I must do a quick

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Speaker 1: shameless plug here Tom for John Michael Thwaite and his

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Speaker 1: marvelous interview with Jamie Diamond, which is out on the

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Speaker 1: Blueberg today. You can you can read that at length

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Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond at length on his business model and his

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Speaker 1: business plans. Yeah, and on the strategy that Mr Diamond

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Speaker 1: has forward is he tries to set up I guess

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Speaker 1: reset up Fortress Diamond from where it was seven or

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Speaker 1: eight years ago. Brian Belski. We hear from so many

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Speaker 1: guests that they're what did to quote unquote blue chips?

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Speaker 1: Do you find the same or you wed into mid

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Speaker 1: caps and small caps? I would tell you this time

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Speaker 1: that if you're looking at small, medium large companies, we

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Speaker 1: would rank large number one, small number two, in mid

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Speaker 1: number three principally because evaluation perspective UH in the earning

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Speaker 1: growth side of the mid cap world is is a

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Speaker 1: bit worrisome large cap stocks. We think again on the

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Speaker 1: for the record, we think we're heading into an eighties

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Speaker 1: and nineties type environment where it's a Warren Buffet slash

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Speaker 1: Peter Lynch type world where you buy good companies and

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Speaker 1: you stick with them, and again, per my prior comment,

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Speaker 1: you buy more on pullbacks and you trem on on

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Speaker 1: on rallies. But there I believe that this is going

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Speaker 1: to be in an interesting period for small cap managers,

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Speaker 1: as small caps in general underperformed. But this is where you,

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Speaker 1: as a small cap manager, is actually easier for you

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Speaker 1: to outperform if the if the asset class is declining.

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Speaker 1: Ryan Goombowski, thank you so much with Demo Capital Markets

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Speaker 1: on the equity markets and his important research note of

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Speaker 1: an unloved uh bull market. It was not I love

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Speaker 1: politics last night, Mike. I've never seen anything like it.

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Speaker 1: What was your observation as you and I gazed at

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Speaker 1: eleven o'clock? What we saw? Well, it's uh. It seems

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Speaker 1: to be moving more quickly than party professionals thought. Bernie

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Speaker 1: Sanders not putting up as much of a fight when

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Speaker 1: you start counting delegates. Hillary Clinton with a big commanding lead,

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Speaker 1: and Donald Trump right now at least has the momentum.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be hard for him to be stopped, but

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Speaker 1: he still can be The nuances here between Mr Cruz

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Speaker 1: and Mr Rubio and moving out to Michigan in one week,

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Speaker 1: and a number of guests this morning, making clear Florida

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Speaker 1: is more important. But it'll be interesting to see where

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Speaker 1: we are and you get to the winner take all

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Speaker 1: primaries like Florida, and that will really matter. Yeah, Michael McKain,

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Speaker 1: Tom Kenyon, Washington. Futures at negative six down futures negative

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Speaker 1: forty three, the yield one eight four. Now let's bring

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Speaker 1: in Michael Barr. He has the latest world of national headlines.

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Speaker 1: Michael by time, thank you very much. Republican Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and Democrat Hillary Clinton had big nights after Super Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Trump and Clinton each one seven states. Ted Cruz and

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Speaker 1: Marco Ruby, you are not giving up in their fight

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Speaker 1: for the Republican presidential nomination. CRUs won his home state

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Speaker 1: of Texas as well as Oklahoma and Alaska. Marco Ruby

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Speaker 1: and not his first victory in Minnesota, Democrat Bernie Sanders

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Speaker 1: is indicating that he is in it for the long haul.

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Speaker 1: Sanders picked up victories in his home state of Vermont

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Speaker 1: as well as Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Colorado. Authorities say a

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Speaker 1: freight train with hazardous liquids has derailed in southwestern New York.

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Speaker 1: State Governor Andrew Cuomo says the train was traveling on

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Speaker 1: the Norfolk South Southern Line through Ripley when about fifteen

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Speaker 1: cars derailed last night. Three of the cars carrying at

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Speaker 1: least ethanol, are leaking. About forty five homes have been evacuated.

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Speaker 1: Global too. It's twenty four hours a day, powered by ours,

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Speaker 1: twenty four hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty

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Speaker 1: news bureaus from around the world. I'm Michael Barr, Mike Tom,

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Speaker 1: Michael Bar, thank you so much. Coming up. E J.

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Speaker 1: Dione of The Washing did post on the perspective of

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Speaker 1: super Wednesday. This is Bloomberg surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought to

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Speaker 1: you by n y c B asked about their my

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Speaker 1: community interest checking with free NYCB online and mobile banking.

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Speaker 1: Earn more, get more. Visit NYCB family dot com for

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Speaker 1: details