WEBVTT - Markets, ETFs, And Inflation

0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920
<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520
<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.560
<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast

0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.479
<v Speaker 1>called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.960
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Right now, I want

0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.040
<v Speaker 1>to get over to Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer co

0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:29.080
<v Speaker 1>founder at Defiance E t f S, to talk to

0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:31.440
<v Speaker 1>us about markets. Bring us back, Sylvia. What are we

0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:34.680
<v Speaker 1>looking at here in terms of inflation? Is Cameron just mentioned,

0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:37.360
<v Speaker 1>um the seven point nine print that we saw didn't

0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:42.040
<v Speaker 1>even have really this wartime inflation in it. We know

0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:45.199
<v Speaker 1>that the inflation is an issue in the market. You know,

0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:49.720
<v Speaker 1>what what happens to inflation going forward is really the issue.

0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:52.199
<v Speaker 1>If you know, if if what we see going on

0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:55.360
<v Speaker 1>in Russia and Ukraine comes to an end in in

0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:58.200
<v Speaker 1>shorter order than you know, perhaps we go back to

0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:00.680
<v Speaker 1>that that famous word transitory and something that we live

0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:03.600
<v Speaker 1>with for you know, another three to six months on

0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:06.280
<v Speaker 1>top of what we were um expecting before and it

0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:08.640
<v Speaker 1>kind of fades away. Into the early part of three.

0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:11.679
<v Speaker 1>But it all depends on what happens I think with Russia.

0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:15.520
<v Speaker 1>So um, you know, the issue with with inflation in

0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:18.960
<v Speaker 1>the market and as it continues to rise, is that consumers,

0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:22.000
<v Speaker 1>which have really pushed our economy forward and have strong

0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:23.959
<v Speaker 1>savings and all these things that will help get us,

0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:25.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, out of sort of a reception and keep

0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:28.600
<v Speaker 1>us growing and keep us recovering from this, is that

0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.800
<v Speaker 1>their sense of wealth wanes as that inflation number gets

0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:34.880
<v Speaker 1>higher and they make different spending decisions. So that's that's

0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:37.640
<v Speaker 1>I think really the risk of um, as you said,

0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:41.120
<v Speaker 1>inflation and potentially wartime inflation to the market. Well, so

0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:44.280
<v Speaker 1>what I'm kind of questioning, here's a timeline of it,

0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.440
<v Speaker 1>all right, because if you do have this wartime inflation,

0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.840
<v Speaker 1>we're already seeing it in prices kind of skyrocketing. How

0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:53.720
<v Speaker 1>long does it take to actually affect the consumer in

0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:55.760
<v Speaker 1>the real economy, because it kind of seems like there

0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:57.480
<v Speaker 1>is a lag in that if you actually look at

0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the inflation print, Yes, it's a very high number. Seven

0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.720
<v Speaker 1>point nine percent is not a good number necessarily, but

0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:05.800
<v Speaker 1>it isn't an upside surprise. It was bang Online Estimates,

0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:08.000
<v Speaker 1>which you looked at the last year, a lot of

0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:11.840
<v Speaker 1>those prints were actually upside surprises. They were much higher

0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:13.679
<v Speaker 1>than the consensus was. This I think is one of

0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:16.280
<v Speaker 1>the few times it was actually bang in line with estimates.

0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:21.000
<v Speaker 1>Is there some kind of silver lining in that? And

0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:23.400
<v Speaker 1>that's a great point. I you know, my sense is

0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.919
<v Speaker 1>that because a lot of the UM sanctions have only

0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:29.840
<v Speaker 1>started two weeks ago, it's not fully built into that number.

0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.120
<v Speaker 1>So I think that you know, March number will probably

0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:35.360
<v Speaker 1>be a little bit uglier. But you know, the silver

0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:38.400
<v Speaker 1>lining here is really that consumer savings remain at all

0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:42.280
<v Speaker 1>time highs UM. I think once rushing Ukraine situations beyond us,

0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:45.760
<v Speaker 1>we go back to economic activity shining through. And you know,

0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:48.959
<v Speaker 1>even with higher input costs like wages, commodities, companies that

0:02:49.040 --> 0:02:53.320
<v Speaker 1>have considerable cash cushions larger too pre pandemic levels, and

0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:55.560
<v Speaker 1>so do consumers. So you know who does it impact.

0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:59.200
<v Speaker 1>It really impacts the lower income consumer UM. You know,

0:02:59.520 --> 0:03:01.520
<v Speaker 1>consumers that are that are sort of working and have

0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:03.839
<v Speaker 1>higher wages and saving from the bank. I mean, they're

0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:06.440
<v Speaker 1>unlikely to cancel their you know, trip to the shore

0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:09.040
<v Speaker 1>and not drive because gas is a little bit more expensive.

0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:11.560
<v Speaker 1>In the short term. However, the longer that goes on,

0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:14.519
<v Speaker 1>you know, the more that that dynamic does shift and

0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:17.160
<v Speaker 1>it does kind of change the way that we behave.

0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:19.880
<v Speaker 1>So in the near term, right now, I think we'll

0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:22.600
<v Speaker 1>be okay. But I do think that, you know, the

0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:24.519
<v Speaker 1>situation has to come to an end or or it

0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:26.760
<v Speaker 1>will sort of spell a different situation for the market.

0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:31.639
<v Speaker 1>Is there, uh Um? I guess a boilerplate e t

0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:37.920
<v Speaker 1>F strategy to fight inflation. Uh you have, I mean,

0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:41.960
<v Speaker 1>you definitely have some inflation you know, inflation fighting e

0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:45.080
<v Speaker 1>t F products. Um A story. Advisors recently launched a

0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.360
<v Speaker 1>new one that's worth looking at. But I think, you know,

0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:51.560
<v Speaker 1>I think with this it's it's not so much because

0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:53.440
<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to be transitory. I think, you know,

0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:55.440
<v Speaker 1>it's worth looking at those types of products, but I

0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:58.240
<v Speaker 1>also think it's it's worth just looking at, you know,

0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.000
<v Speaker 1>buying on the dips and these types of markets. Right

0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:03.320
<v Speaker 1>I think that a lot of the process and taken

0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:06.120
<v Speaker 1>off of big megacat names. For example, you know, queues

0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:09.560
<v Speaker 1>are at a discount. Nazac w off of highs um

0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.560
<v Speaker 1>things like five G that you need to power you know,

0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:16.640
<v Speaker 1>the future of electric vehicles augmented reality, AI, metaverse, all

0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:21.240
<v Speaker 1>the stuff we're talking about before UM, the Russia Ukraine UM,

0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:23.920
<v Speaker 1>you know issue came into the market. I think that

0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:26.560
<v Speaker 1>basically a lot of the E t F that that

0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:30.440
<v Speaker 1>focus on secular growth stories UM and and hold. You know,

0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:34.680
<v Speaker 1>companies with strong UM cash reserve, bound sheets and and

0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:36.880
<v Speaker 1>that are part of the future are worth looking at

0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:38.960
<v Speaker 1>now too. So I would just I would argue that

0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:40.440
<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of good deals out there, and

0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:42.920
<v Speaker 1>they don't have to be inflation hides per se um.

0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:45.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, divin end bts like aristocrats, you know, people

0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.559
<v Speaker 1>like to keep consistent income, so even if the share

0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:51.479
<v Speaker 1>prices following, you're getting the income on on some dips there.

0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:53.320
<v Speaker 1>So you know, those are some different ideas that you

0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:55.200
<v Speaker 1>sud look at. Have I told you, Sylvia that we're

0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:59.080
<v Speaker 1>restarting relaunching the E t F Show, a weekly special

0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:04.440
<v Speaker 1>every Monday at one p m. Did you see how

0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:07.760
<v Speaker 1>he ron kg not creedy group to Katie Greifeldt will

0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.760
<v Speaker 1>be joining that program. But do you see how sneakily

0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:14.560
<v Speaker 1>he stuck that in there. It's not even a shameless plug.

0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:16.400
<v Speaker 1>It's a lot of grade. There are a lot of

0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:18.240
<v Speaker 1>great ets out there, and I think a lot of

0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.320
<v Speaker 1>them have launched since that show had stopped, so you'll

0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:24.040
<v Speaker 1>you'll have some good content to talk about well, and

0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:27.000
<v Speaker 1>hopefully you'll join us as well. We can call that

0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:31.719
<v Speaker 1>episode the Big Jablonsky Awesome, Sylvia, thank you so much

0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:34.960
<v Speaker 1>for joining us. Sylvia Jablonsky, their chief investment officer over

0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:42.839
<v Speaker 1>at Defiance ETFs. Let's get back to Hugh Johnson, Chairman

0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:45.360
<v Speaker 1>and chief economist at Hugh Johnson Economics. Hugh, I'm sorry

0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:48.599
<v Speaker 1>to have had to cut you off there um for

0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:50.359
<v Speaker 1>the president, but of course we wanted to hear what

0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:53.520
<v Speaker 1>he was going to say. And you know, what's your

0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:56.440
<v Speaker 1>take on on the move um and on the sanctions

0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:59.680
<v Speaker 1>that we've seen thus far. Well, he's turning up. I

0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:03.120
<v Speaker 1>think the word is as as your reporter suggested, as

0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:06.720
<v Speaker 1>escalates and bit by bit, and what we're seeing is

0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:10.760
<v Speaker 1>just bit by bit turning up the pressure on Biden.

0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:13.520
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't seem to have had much of an effect,

0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:17.240
<v Speaker 1>yet you will see it have an effect. The economy

0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:20.120
<v Speaker 1>of Russia is really a big question mark, and it's

0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:24.080
<v Speaker 1>going to go to positive two growth rates. We were

0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.360
<v Speaker 1>talking about maybe a month or a month and a

0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:28.840
<v Speaker 1>half ago, and it's going to be negative, But is

0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:31.359
<v Speaker 1>how much negative it could be? As much as a

0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:36.200
<v Speaker 1>contraction of in the Russian economy to one extent, is

0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:39.680
<v Speaker 1>that going to put enough pressure on Putin to change

0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.600
<v Speaker 1>his approach? You know, there's not much evidence he's going

0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:44.760
<v Speaker 1>to change his approach, but we certainly want him to

0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.279
<v Speaker 1>do that. And you can see the response of the

0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:51.040
<v Speaker 1>markets today when there was wind of perhaps some agreement

0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:54.599
<v Speaker 1>being reached, the markets were performing positively. So the markets

0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.240
<v Speaker 1>obviously want to see an end of this. Otherwise we're

0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.520
<v Speaker 1>going to see a sort of back and forth, the

0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:03.640
<v Speaker 1>type of a volatile financial market environment for a while. Now,

0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:07.800
<v Speaker 1>you let's stick with the markets here and the economy.

0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:12.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious about the conversation on demand destruction, on potential

0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:14.480
<v Speaker 1>interest rate cuts down the road after we kind of

0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:19.360
<v Speaker 1>returned to this normal policy, more monterary policy. How seriously

0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:22.200
<v Speaker 1>is the market taking the r word right now, the

0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:26.360
<v Speaker 1>recession word. That's a great question. And the reason it's

0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:28.760
<v Speaker 1>a great question is if you take a look at

0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:32.560
<v Speaker 1>what the markets have done since really January four we've

0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:36.600
<v Speaker 1>had a lot of fourteen decline in the SMP. And

0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:40.040
<v Speaker 1>you asked the question is this decline in the stock market,

0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:42.360
<v Speaker 1>which could be called a correction in other words, of

0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:45.680
<v Speaker 1>decline in stock prices that will not be accompanied by

0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:47.800
<v Speaker 1>a recession, or is it the start of a bear

0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:52.080
<v Speaker 1>market that will be accompanied by a recession. The markets

0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:55.280
<v Speaker 1>are taking that possibility seriously, But I think the conclusion

0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:59.320
<v Speaker 1>of the markets again four decline and take a look

0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:02.040
<v Speaker 1>at some of the other or variables, such as leading

0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:05.480
<v Speaker 1>indicators for the economy, the yield curve, which allows us

0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:08.680
<v Speaker 1>to sort of measure the probability of a recession starting

0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:11.560
<v Speaker 1>in twelve months, And the answer is this is looking

0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:15.960
<v Speaker 1>like a correction in an ongoing bull market, but a

0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:20.120
<v Speaker 1>very severe correction. Now I say severe, it's not altogether different.

0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:22.880
<v Speaker 1>It's actually a little bit less than the normal post

0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:26.720
<v Speaker 1>war correction, which has been about over four months. So

0:08:27.360 --> 0:08:29.400
<v Speaker 1>we probably have a little bit further to go if

0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:32.959
<v Speaker 1>we use averages. But nevertheless, I think that the conclusion

0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:36.960
<v Speaker 1>of the markets now is tentatively this is only a correction.

0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:39.480
<v Speaker 1>It's not the start of a bearer market that's going

0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:44.920
<v Speaker 1>to be accompanied by an economic contraction or resission. So um,

0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:46.560
<v Speaker 1>I want I want to get your take on a

0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:49.880
<v Speaker 1>couple of things that we've heard from market participants. Jeff

0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Gunlock has said he couldn't see he could envision inflation

0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.760
<v Speaker 1>at in double digits, maybe at ten percent of those

0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:57.480
<v Speaker 1>base cases for seven and a half at the end

0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:00.719
<v Speaker 1>of the year. And Goldman Sachs um had last night

0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:05.000
<v Speaker 1>that there's a thirty five percent chance of a recession

0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:08.640
<v Speaker 1>next year. What do you think about those uh two forecasts?

0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Is not a big number, but it's still too high,

0:09:12.520 --> 0:09:15.760
<v Speaker 1>And my judgment, I bring it down to we're gonna

0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:18.320
<v Speaker 1>try to quantify the probability of a recession, so that

0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:21.319
<v Speaker 1>I kind of am not with Goldman sachs on that

0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:24.160
<v Speaker 1>number UM as far as ten percent. When we get

0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:27.319
<v Speaker 1>up to ten percent inflation. That also, I have very

0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:30.360
<v Speaker 1>a variety of leading indicators of inflation. I don't see

0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:34.880
<v Speaker 1>that in the cards talking about six consumer inflation now,

0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:37.160
<v Speaker 1>it's probably gonna stay. It'll be a big number for

0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:39.000
<v Speaker 1>the month of March. I think we all know that.

0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:41.439
<v Speaker 1>So we're gonna have a high number for the first

0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:44.679
<v Speaker 1>quarter for the consumer price index. But I think as

0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:46.920
<v Speaker 1>we get not to the second quarter, but the third

0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.680
<v Speaker 1>and fourth quarter, you're going to see the rate of inflation.

0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.800
<v Speaker 1>You're over your rate of inflation coming down, It's not

0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.480
<v Speaker 1>going to come down as much as the consensus expects.

0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.280
<v Speaker 1>The consensus expects it to come down to a two

0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:00.760
<v Speaker 1>and a half percent, I think and a half percent

0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:03.199
<v Speaker 1>the number we'll get there by the end of this year.

0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:06.760
<v Speaker 1>And that's what leading indicators of inflation are telling me

0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:09.840
<v Speaker 1>very clearly. So no to good luck on this ten percent,

0:10:10.240 --> 0:10:13.439
<v Speaker 1>and probably too high on the thirty chance of a recession,

0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:17.320
<v Speaker 1>although that's certainly I've seen higher numbers. All right, great

0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:19.679
<v Speaker 1>to get your take. You thanks so much for joining

0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.720
<v Speaker 1>us and for sticking with us throughout the president's speech.

0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:26.240
<v Speaker 1>Hugh Johnson is the chairman and chief economist of Hugh

0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Johnson Economics, also an advisor to great Point, and it's

0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:35.760
<v Speaker 1>Hugh Johnson Advisor's division. Let's get over to David Katz

0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:40.240
<v Speaker 1>right now, President c IO of Matrix Asset Advisors. David,

0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:44.160
<v Speaker 1>I've talked with so many investment professionals this week who've

0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:47.600
<v Speaker 1>said I haven't had any sleep. I'm seriously worried about

0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:51.120
<v Speaker 1>heart palpitations. Um, how do you deal with this kind

0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:55.440
<v Speaker 1>of volatility? Well, the best thing to do is to

0:10:55.480 --> 0:10:58.040
<v Speaker 1>take a longer time, arise and try to put the

0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:01.199
<v Speaker 1>market in some historical perspective, and if you do that,

0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:05.199
<v Speaker 1>you actually can feel pretty comfortable. Since there have been

0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:09.040
<v Speaker 1>thirty five corrections of five percent or more. Uh, number

0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:11.960
<v Speaker 1>of those were the ten to fifteent level. And what's

0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:14.800
<v Speaker 1>critical here is that if you look in the aftermath

0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:18.920
<v Speaker 1>of those corrections, stocks rebound much quicker than anybody anticipates.

0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:22.480
<v Speaker 1>The actual rebound is it about four point seven months.

0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.319
<v Speaker 1>So we think that the best thing to do turn

0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:28.600
<v Speaker 1>the noise down. Turn turn the news down. Uh, take

0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.040
<v Speaker 1>this nine to twelve month perspective, and we think there's

0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:35.160
<v Speaker 1>some great buying opportunities being presented. There's an enormous likelihood

0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:37.880
<v Speaker 1>that a week and a month later you're gonna feel stupid.

0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:40.640
<v Speaker 1>The stocks will be lower, But nine and twelve months later,

0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:42.560
<v Speaker 1>these will have been great buys and you're likely going

0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:44.480
<v Speaker 1>to be making a lot of money. Okay, but don't

0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:48.360
<v Speaker 1>don't turn the news down. Don't don't don't turn off

0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:52.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. What else would you listen to? You're you're right,

0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.520
<v Speaker 1>you gotta listen to the news. Just don't react in

0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:58.439
<v Speaker 1>terms of your stock market investments based up on the

0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.480
<v Speaker 1>bad news you've heard. First here folks listen to Bloomberg

0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:05.840
<v Speaker 1>Radio very important. Um, what's interesting to me? I gotta say,

0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:09.000
<v Speaker 1>I listened to so I'm so glad to have moved

0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:12.160
<v Speaker 1>back to the US because of serious x M. I'll

0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.720
<v Speaker 1>listen to Bloomberg. I'll listen to the Grateful Dead Channel

0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:18.680
<v Speaker 1>sometimes Fish, I only listen to Bloomberg Radio. That is

0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 1>my level of loyalty, Matt. But whatever, Um, David, let's

0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.240
<v Speaker 1>talk to us. That you talking about buying essentially essentially

0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.800
<v Speaker 1>buying the dip. This is something that's kind of pressure

0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:33.400
<v Speaker 1>we haven't seen. I feel like since the crash, Um,

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.920
<v Speaker 1>how much further can stocks fall before we see perhaps

0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:40.319
<v Speaker 1>some sustainable games here. Well, stocks on a day to

0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:42.800
<v Speaker 1>day basis really can do anything. And you do have

0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.000
<v Speaker 1>some pretty negative news out of Russia in the Ukraine,

0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.079
<v Speaker 1>and you have some negative inflation news and negative oil news. However,

0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:52.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of as impacting stocks already, so stocks could

0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 1>easily move down five from here. However, we do think

0:12:56.080 --> 0:13:00.320
<v Speaker 1>that when they rebound, you're gonna get a rebound. You

0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:02.240
<v Speaker 1>never know where the bottom is. We think that it's

0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:04.560
<v Speaker 1>down enough that most of the damage has been done,

0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.319
<v Speaker 1>so we're very comfortable buying here, and there are a

0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:09.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of stocks that have just been creamed that have

0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:13.199
<v Speaker 1>very good fundamentals, are a great prices? Are your Are

0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:17.160
<v Speaker 1>your clients more concerned with preserving capital right now though

0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:22.240
<v Speaker 1>than um than growing well? Typically during a down market,

0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:24.480
<v Speaker 1>everybody tries to think about, oh, my goodness, I don't

0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 1>want to lose money. How do I preserve capital? And

0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.800
<v Speaker 1>people are less focused on making money. But the best

0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.400
<v Speaker 1>thing to do is set up a long term massive allocation.

0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.560
<v Speaker 1>Not to get overly enthusiastic when stocks are great in

0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:38.360
<v Speaker 1>thinking that you're doing wonderfully, and not to get overly

0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 1>negative when you're doing badly. And I think you had

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:44.960
<v Speaker 1>mentioned March of when the COVID pandemic broke out. You

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.960
<v Speaker 1>had a thirty five percent correction in a matter of weeks,

0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:50.920
<v Speaker 1>and it looked like the world was coming to an end,

0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:54.280
<v Speaker 1>and it actually was on a health side, But the

0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.280
<v Speaker 1>market fully recovered that it was up nicely for the year.

0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.360
<v Speaker 1>If you were selling into that bad news, you locked

0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.200
<v Speaker 1>in your losses and didn't get the recovery. So again,

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:07.480
<v Speaker 1>not getting overly concerned about the really bad news in

0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:09.959
<v Speaker 1>terms of its financial implications, and and sort of being

0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:12.720
<v Speaker 1>a contrarian was very helpful. Then we think it's going

0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:15.079
<v Speaker 1>to be helpful now. There was an article this weekend

0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 1>in Barrens that talked about how stock markets did after wars,

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 1>terrorist attacks, geopolitical events. In the bottom line was six

0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:26.840
<v Speaker 1>to twelve months later, stocks are generally a lot higher.

0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 1>So for a lot of reasons. You know, we're pretty

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 1>comfortable here, David, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.720
<v Speaker 1>your insight today. David Kats, President, ce IO of Matrix

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:42.080
<v Speaker 1>Asset Advisers. Let's get over right now to Andrew Channon,

0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:47.000
<v Speaker 1>the CEO of procure Am, to talk to us about

0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:50.880
<v Speaker 1>what we see going on in terms of um well,

0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>space is what we always focus on with Andrew and

0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:57.680
<v Speaker 1>Uh they run the UFO E t F. I would

0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:01.760
<v Speaker 1>have thought that there is little connection, um well, I

0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 1>hadn't thought about it, frankly until Cretty pointed out that

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.360
<v Speaker 1>the Russians are so active in space. Andrew, how does

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:10.840
<v Speaker 1>that affect your business from so many different ways? And

0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 1>if you look at you from the even before the

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 1>invasion occurred, we had companies like max Argo have satellite

0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:19.760
<v Speaker 1>pointed at borders all around the world. That was providing

0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.120
<v Speaker 1>us with real time information of the troop build up

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:26.320
<v Speaker 1>outside of Ukraine, and as time has progressed, we've seen

0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:30.280
<v Speaker 1>a ton of changes. We've seen breakups of relationships surrounding

0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.880
<v Speaker 1>the International Space Station. We've seen Russia refusing to sense

0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 1>engines for rockets um and as they are closing this off,

0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:41.040
<v Speaker 1>we've even seen them hold hostage of thirty six one

0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 1>web satellites at the back of door launchpad in Kazakhstan.

0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:49.040
<v Speaker 1>And so as they are becoming more protectivists of their

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 1>space industry, it's creating many opportunities that are opening up

0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:56.240
<v Speaker 1>for commercial space business outside of Russia. So there's a

0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:58.920
<v Speaker 1>lot going on, and you know, the military and defense

0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:01.880
<v Speaker 1>side of it is roamly critical at this time. So

0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:04.640
<v Speaker 1>let's put a market lens on this. How do you

0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:07.600
<v Speaker 1>play it? How do you trade it? So, yeah, we

0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 1>created UFO to provide a diversified vehicle for investors that

0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:15.040
<v Speaker 1>want to get global diversification to the to the space industry.

0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:20.000
<v Speaker 1>So we have over forty companies currently in UFO specializing

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.960
<v Speaker 1>in all different areas. So you have your defense uh

0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.640
<v Speaker 1>and and even weapons manufacturers that are helping to build

0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:30.600
<v Speaker 1>different technologies that help militaries around the world utilizing space

0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:35.640
<v Speaker 1>their satellites, communications, observations, surveillance, which is also very critical

0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 1>not just for military times, but for for many other things,

0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.600
<v Speaker 1>even including tracking climate change. So, you know, with so

0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:46.600
<v Speaker 1>many relevant areas that are becoming priorities around the world,

0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 1>spaces helping address many of these problems and providing solutions.

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:52.520
<v Speaker 1>Is it is there a point where you think we

0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:59.880
<v Speaker 1>need to have um many different multiple space ETFs because

0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:03.600
<v Speaker 1>it's it's become such a big business that you can

0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:06.800
<v Speaker 1>break it down in so many different ways. I would

0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:09.520
<v Speaker 1>never say that, you know, we we need more competition.

0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm really happy with the partners that we've made

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:15.320
<v Speaker 1>in the index that we've licensed. The underlying index is

0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:18.560
<v Speaker 1>actually a collaboration with a former director of research from

0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:22.679
<v Speaker 1>the Space Foundation actually helped build the most popular global

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:25.600
<v Speaker 1>model that's used for actually calculating the size, growth and

0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 1>change of the space industry. So we have a really

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:31.159
<v Speaker 1>great team that we love working with, and there's been

0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:34.720
<v Speaker 1>a ton of research that actually goes into developing this concept.

0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:36.440
<v Speaker 1>It wasn't just hey can you build one, let's go

0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:38.359
<v Speaker 1>and license it. There was a lot of work that

0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:42.400
<v Speaker 1>was done beforehand, and um, they really look at companies

0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:45.560
<v Speaker 1>deriving revenues from the space industry. So this is the

0:17:45.640 --> 0:17:48.840
<v Speaker 1>first sure play global space etf out there, and it

0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:51.440
<v Speaker 1>was one done with a lot of consideration taking into

0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:55.920
<v Speaker 1>before bringing this product out. Just want to quickly ask,

0:17:56.680 --> 0:18:02.520
<v Speaker 1>what's your favorite space movie? I mean, we had a

0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:06.880
<v Speaker 1>big debate about this. I'll watch anything with space related um,

0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:10.480
<v Speaker 1>and definitely tons of TV shows, but happy to be yours.

0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:13.280
<v Speaker 1>It's hard. I mean, I don't know. Armageddon is great,

0:18:13.400 --> 0:18:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Intergalactic is amazing. Um, you know I love two thousand

0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:19.119
<v Speaker 1>and one. In two thousand and ten, I'm gonna I

0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:21.640
<v Speaker 1>love space movies as well. So I just thought i'd

0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 1>get you. Really liked Passengers honestly, for Lawrence thought it

0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:28.000
<v Speaker 1>was very good. Yeah, very good. Peter Stormare I think

0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:30.359
<v Speaker 1>is the best space astronaut. He's the one who always

0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 1>plays the crazy, drunk cosmonaut even though he's not Russian,

0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:37.359
<v Speaker 1>he's actually Swedish anyway, Andrew, thanks for joining us. Always

0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:39.800
<v Speaker 1>a pleasure talking to you. Andrew chain in there um

0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:44.359
<v Speaker 1>from procure Am. He is the CEO. Thanks for listening

0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:47.840
<v Speaker 1>to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen

0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:52.160
<v Speaker 1>to interviews with Apple podcasts, or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:56.119
<v Speaker 1>I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller V

0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:59.399
<v Speaker 1>three pen on Ball Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:02.159
<v Speaker 1>Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:02.960
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio