Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Right now, I want
Speaker 1: to get over to Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer co
Speaker 1: founder at Defiance E t f S, to talk to
Speaker 1: us about markets. Bring us back, Sylvia. What are we
Speaker 1: looking at here in terms of inflation? Is Cameron just mentioned,
Speaker 1: um the seven point nine print that we saw didn't
Speaker 1: even have really this wartime inflation in it. We know
Speaker 1: that the inflation is an issue in the market. You know,
Speaker 1: what what happens to inflation going forward is really the issue.
Speaker 1: If you know, if if what we see going on
Speaker 1: in Russia and Ukraine comes to an end in in
Speaker 1: shorter order than you know, perhaps we go back to
Speaker 1: that that famous word transitory and something that we live
Speaker 1: with for you know, another three to six months on
Speaker 1: top of what we were um expecting before and it
Speaker 1: kind of fades away. Into the early part of three.
Speaker 1: But it all depends on what happens I think with Russia.
Speaker 1: So um, you know, the issue with with inflation in
Speaker 1: the market and as it continues to rise, is that consumers,
Speaker 1: which have really pushed our economy forward and have strong
Speaker 1: savings and all these things that will help get us,
Speaker 1: you know, out of sort of a reception and keep
Speaker 1: us growing and keep us recovering from this, is that
Speaker 1: their sense of wealth wanes as that inflation number gets
Speaker 1: higher and they make different spending decisions. So that's that's
Speaker 1: I think really the risk of um, as you said,
Speaker 1: inflation and potentially wartime inflation to the market. Well, so
Speaker 1: what I'm kind of questioning, here's a timeline of it,
Speaker 1: all right, because if you do have this wartime inflation,
Speaker 1: we're already seeing it in prices kind of skyrocketing. How
Speaker 1: long does it take to actually affect the consumer in
Speaker 1: the real economy, because it kind of seems like there
Speaker 1: is a lag in that if you actually look at
Speaker 1: the inflation print, Yes, it's a very high number. Seven
Speaker 1: point nine percent is not a good number necessarily, but
Speaker 1: it isn't an upside surprise. It was bang Online Estimates,
Speaker 1: which you looked at the last year, a lot of
Speaker 1: those prints were actually upside surprises. They were much higher
Speaker 1: than the consensus was. This I think is one of
Speaker 1: the few times it was actually bang in line with estimates.
Speaker 1: Is there some kind of silver lining in that? And
Speaker 1: that's a great point. I you know, my sense is
Speaker 1: that because a lot of the UM sanctions have only
Speaker 1: started two weeks ago, it's not fully built into that number.
Speaker 1: So I think that you know, March number will probably
Speaker 1: be a little bit uglier. But you know, the silver
Speaker 1: lining here is really that consumer savings remain at all
Speaker 1: time highs UM. I think once rushing Ukraine situations beyond us,
Speaker 1: we go back to economic activity shining through. And you know,
Speaker 1: even with higher input costs like wages, commodities, companies that
Speaker 1: have considerable cash cushions larger too pre pandemic levels, and
Speaker 1: so do consumers. So you know who does it impact.
Speaker 1: It really impacts the lower income consumer UM. You know,
Speaker 1: consumers that are that are sort of working and have
Speaker 1: higher wages and saving from the bank. I mean, they're
Speaker 1: unlikely to cancel their you know, trip to the shore
Speaker 1: and not drive because gas is a little bit more expensive.
Speaker 1: In the short term. However, the longer that goes on,
Speaker 1: you know, the more that that dynamic does shift and
Speaker 1: it does kind of change the way that we behave.
Speaker 1: So in the near term, right now, I think we'll
Speaker 1: be okay. But I do think that, you know, the
Speaker 1: situation has to come to an end or or it
Speaker 1: will sort of spell a different situation for the market.
Speaker 1: Is there, uh Um? I guess a boilerplate e t
Speaker 1: F strategy to fight inflation. Uh you have, I mean,
Speaker 1: you definitely have some inflation you know, inflation fighting e
Speaker 1: t F products. Um A story. Advisors recently launched a
Speaker 1: new one that's worth looking at. But I think, you know,
Speaker 1: I think with this it's it's not so much because
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be transitory. I think, you know,
Speaker 1: it's worth looking at those types of products, but I
Speaker 1: also think it's it's worth just looking at, you know,
Speaker 1: buying on the dips and these types of markets. Right
Speaker 1: I think that a lot of the process and taken
Speaker 1: off of big megacat names. For example, you know, queues
Speaker 1: are at a discount. Nazac w off of highs um
Speaker 1: things like five G that you need to power you know,
Speaker 1: the future of electric vehicles augmented reality, AI, metaverse, all
Speaker 1: the stuff we're talking about before UM, the Russia Ukraine UM,
Speaker 1: you know issue came into the market. I think that
Speaker 1: basically a lot of the E t F that that
Speaker 1: focus on secular growth stories UM and and hold. You know,
Speaker 1: companies with strong UM cash reserve, bound sheets and and
Speaker 1: that are part of the future are worth looking at
Speaker 1: now too. So I would just I would argue that
Speaker 1: there are a lot of good deals out there, and
Speaker 1: they don't have to be inflation hides per se um.
Speaker 1: You know, divin end bts like aristocrats, you know, people
Speaker 1: like to keep consistent income, so even if the share
Speaker 1: prices following, you're getting the income on on some dips there.
Speaker 1: So you know, those are some different ideas that you
Speaker 1: sud look at. Have I told you, Sylvia that we're
Speaker 1: restarting relaunching the E t F Show, a weekly special
Speaker 1: every Monday at one p m. Did you see how
Speaker 1: he ron kg not creedy group to Katie Greifeldt will
Speaker 1: be joining that program. But do you see how sneakily
Speaker 1: he stuck that in there. It's not even a shameless plug.
Speaker 1: It's a lot of grade. There are a lot of
Speaker 1: great ets out there, and I think a lot of
Speaker 1: them have launched since that show had stopped, so you'll
Speaker 1: you'll have some good content to talk about well, and
Speaker 1: hopefully you'll join us as well. We can call that
Speaker 1: episode the Big Jablonsky Awesome, Sylvia, thank you so much
Speaker 1: for joining us. Sylvia Jablonsky, their chief investment officer over
Speaker 1: at Defiance ETFs. Let's get back to Hugh Johnson, Chairman
Speaker 1: and chief economist at Hugh Johnson Economics. Hugh, I'm sorry
Speaker 1: to have had to cut you off there um for
Speaker 1: the president, but of course we wanted to hear what
Speaker 1: he was going to say. And you know, what's your
Speaker 1: take on on the move um and on the sanctions
Speaker 1: that we've seen thus far. Well, he's turning up. I
Speaker 1: think the word is as as your reporter suggested, as
Speaker 1: escalates and bit by bit, and what we're seeing is
Speaker 1: just bit by bit turning up the pressure on Biden.
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem to have had much of an effect,
Speaker 1: yet you will see it have an effect. The economy
Speaker 1: of Russia is really a big question mark, and it's
Speaker 1: going to go to positive two growth rates. We were
Speaker 1: talking about maybe a month or a month and a
Speaker 1: half ago, and it's going to be negative, But is
Speaker 1: how much negative it could be? As much as a
Speaker 1: contraction of in the Russian economy to one extent, is
Speaker 1: that going to put enough pressure on Putin to change
Speaker 1: his approach? You know, there's not much evidence he's going
Speaker 1: to change his approach, but we certainly want him to
Speaker 1: do that. And you can see the response of the
Speaker 1: markets today when there was wind of perhaps some agreement
Speaker 1: being reached, the markets were performing positively. So the markets
Speaker 1: obviously want to see an end of this. Otherwise we're
Speaker 1: going to see a sort of back and forth, the
Speaker 1: type of a volatile financial market environment for a while. Now,
Speaker 1: you let's stick with the markets here and the economy.
Speaker 1: I'm curious about the conversation on demand destruction, on potential
Speaker 1: interest rate cuts down the road after we kind of
Speaker 1: returned to this normal policy, more monterary policy. How seriously
Speaker 1: is the market taking the r word right now, the
Speaker 1: recession word. That's a great question. And the reason it's
Speaker 1: a great question is if you take a look at
Speaker 1: what the markets have done since really January four we've
Speaker 1: had a lot of fourteen decline in the SMP. And
Speaker 1: you asked the question is this decline in the stock market,
Speaker 1: which could be called a correction in other words, of
Speaker 1: decline in stock prices that will not be accompanied by
Speaker 1: a recession, or is it the start of a bear
Speaker 1: market that will be accompanied by a recession. The markets
Speaker 1: are taking that possibility seriously, But I think the conclusion
Speaker 1: of the markets again four decline and take a look
Speaker 1: at some of the other or variables, such as leading
Speaker 1: indicators for the economy, the yield curve, which allows us
Speaker 1: to sort of measure the probability of a recession starting
Speaker 1: in twelve months, And the answer is this is looking
Speaker 1: like a correction in an ongoing bull market, but a
Speaker 1: very severe correction. Now I say severe, it's not altogether different.
Speaker 1: It's actually a little bit less than the normal post
Speaker 1: war correction, which has been about over four months. So
Speaker 1: we probably have a little bit further to go if
Speaker 1: we use averages. But nevertheless, I think that the conclusion
Speaker 1: of the markets now is tentatively this is only a correction.
Speaker 1: It's not the start of a bearer market that's going
Speaker 1: to be accompanied by an economic contraction or resission. So um,
Speaker 1: I want I want to get your take on a
Speaker 1: couple of things that we've heard from market participants. Jeff
Speaker 1: Gunlock has said he couldn't see he could envision inflation
Speaker 1: at in double digits, maybe at ten percent of those
Speaker 1: base cases for seven and a half at the end
Speaker 1: of the year. And Goldman Sachs um had last night
Speaker 1: that there's a thirty five percent chance of a recession
Speaker 1: next year. What do you think about those uh two forecasts?
Speaker 1: Is not a big number, but it's still too high,
Speaker 1: And my judgment, I bring it down to we're gonna
Speaker 1: try to quantify the probability of a recession, so that
Speaker 1: I kind of am not with Goldman sachs on that
Speaker 1: number UM as far as ten percent. When we get
Speaker 1: up to ten percent inflation. That also, I have very
Speaker 1: a variety of leading indicators of inflation. I don't see
Speaker 1: that in the cards talking about six consumer inflation now,
Speaker 1: it's probably gonna stay. It'll be a big number for
Speaker 1: the month of March. I think we all know that.
Speaker 1: So we're gonna have a high number for the first
Speaker 1: quarter for the consumer price index. But I think as
Speaker 1: we get not to the second quarter, but the third
Speaker 1: and fourth quarter, you're going to see the rate of inflation.
Speaker 1: You're over your rate of inflation coming down, It's not
Speaker 1: going to come down as much as the consensus expects.
Speaker 1: The consensus expects it to come down to a two
Speaker 1: and a half percent, I think and a half percent
Speaker 1: the number we'll get there by the end of this year.
Speaker 1: And that's what leading indicators of inflation are telling me
Speaker 1: very clearly. So no to good luck on this ten percent,
Speaker 1: and probably too high on the thirty chance of a recession,
Speaker 1: although that's certainly I've seen higher numbers. All right, great
Speaker 1: to get your take. You thanks so much for joining
Speaker 1: us and for sticking with us throughout the president's speech.
Speaker 1: Hugh Johnson is the chairman and chief economist of Hugh
Speaker 1: Johnson Economics, also an advisor to great Point, and it's
Speaker 1: Hugh Johnson Advisor's division. Let's get over to David Katz
Speaker 1: right now, President c IO of Matrix Asset Advisors. David,
Speaker 1: I've talked with so many investment professionals this week who've
Speaker 1: said I haven't had any sleep. I'm seriously worried about
Speaker 1: heart palpitations. Um, how do you deal with this kind
Speaker 1: of volatility? Well, the best thing to do is to
Speaker 1: take a longer time, arise and try to put the
Speaker 1: market in some historical perspective, and if you do that,
Speaker 1: you actually can feel pretty comfortable. Since there have been
Speaker 1: thirty five corrections of five percent or more. Uh, number
Speaker 1: of those were the ten to fifteent level. And what's
Speaker 1: critical here is that if you look in the aftermath
Speaker 1: of those corrections, stocks rebound much quicker than anybody anticipates.
Speaker 1: The actual rebound is it about four point seven months.
Speaker 1: So we think that the best thing to do turn
Speaker 1: the noise down. Turn turn the news down. Uh, take
Speaker 1: this nine to twelve month perspective, and we think there's
Speaker 1: some great buying opportunities being presented. There's an enormous likelihood
Speaker 1: that a week and a month later you're gonna feel stupid.
Speaker 1: The stocks will be lower, But nine and twelve months later,
Speaker 1: these will have been great buys and you're likely going
Speaker 1: to be making a lot of money. Okay, but don't
Speaker 1: don't turn the news down. Don't don't don't turn off
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. What else would you listen to? You're you're right,
Speaker 1: you gotta listen to the news. Just don't react in
Speaker 1: terms of your stock market investments based up on the
Speaker 1: bad news you've heard. First here folks listen to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Radio very important. Um, what's interesting to me? I gotta say,
Speaker 1: I listened to so I'm so glad to have moved
Speaker 1: back to the US because of serious x M. I'll
Speaker 1: listen to Bloomberg. I'll listen to the Grateful Dead Channel
Speaker 1: sometimes Fish, I only listen to Bloomberg Radio. That is
Speaker 1: my level of loyalty, Matt. But whatever, Um, David, let's
Speaker 1: talk to us. That you talking about buying essentially essentially
Speaker 1: buying the dip. This is something that's kind of pressure
Speaker 1: we haven't seen. I feel like since the crash, Um,
Speaker 1: how much further can stocks fall before we see perhaps
Speaker 1: some sustainable games here. Well, stocks on a day to
Speaker 1: day basis really can do anything. And you do have
Speaker 1: some pretty negative news out of Russia in the Ukraine,
Speaker 1: and you have some negative inflation news and negative oil news. However,
Speaker 1: a lot of as impacting stocks already, so stocks could
Speaker 1: easily move down five from here. However, we do think
Speaker 1: that when they rebound, you're gonna get a rebound. You
Speaker 1: never know where the bottom is. We think that it's
Speaker 1: down enough that most of the damage has been done,
Speaker 1: so we're very comfortable buying here, and there are a
Speaker 1: lot of stocks that have just been creamed that have
Speaker 1: very good fundamentals, are a great prices? Are your Are
Speaker 1: your clients more concerned with preserving capital right now though
Speaker 1: than um than growing well? Typically during a down market,
Speaker 1: everybody tries to think about, oh, my goodness, I don't
Speaker 1: want to lose money. How do I preserve capital? And
Speaker 1: people are less focused on making money. But the best
Speaker 1: thing to do is set up a long term massive allocation.
Speaker 1: Not to get overly enthusiastic when stocks are great in
Speaker 1: thinking that you're doing wonderfully, and not to get overly
Speaker 1: negative when you're doing badly. And I think you had
Speaker 1: mentioned March of when the COVID pandemic broke out. You
Speaker 1: had a thirty five percent correction in a matter of weeks,
Speaker 1: and it looked like the world was coming to an end,
Speaker 1: and it actually was on a health side, But the
Speaker 1: market fully recovered that it was up nicely for the year.
Speaker 1: If you were selling into that bad news, you locked
Speaker 1: in your losses and didn't get the recovery. So again,
Speaker 1: not getting overly concerned about the really bad news in
Speaker 1: terms of its financial implications, and and sort of being
Speaker 1: a contrarian was very helpful. Then we think it's going
Speaker 1: to be helpful now. There was an article this weekend
Speaker 1: in Barrens that talked about how stock markets did after wars,
Speaker 1: terrorist attacks, geopolitical events. In the bottom line was six
Speaker 1: to twelve months later, stocks are generally a lot higher.
Speaker 1: So for a lot of reasons. You know, we're pretty
Speaker 1: comfortable here, David, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate
Speaker 1: your insight today. David Kats, President, ce IO of Matrix
Speaker 1: Asset Advisers. Let's get over right now to Andrew Channon,
Speaker 1: the CEO of procure Am, to talk to us about
Speaker 1: what we see going on in terms of um well,
Speaker 1: space is what we always focus on with Andrew and
Speaker 1: Uh they run the UFO E t F. I would
Speaker 1: have thought that there is little connection, um well, I
Speaker 1: hadn't thought about it, frankly until Cretty pointed out that
Speaker 1: the Russians are so active in space. Andrew, how does
Speaker 1: that affect your business from so many different ways? And
Speaker 1: if you look at you from the even before the
Speaker 1: invasion occurred, we had companies like max Argo have satellite
Speaker 1: pointed at borders all around the world. That was providing
Speaker 1: us with real time information of the troop build up
Speaker 1: outside of Ukraine, and as time has progressed, we've seen
Speaker 1: a ton of changes. We've seen breakups of relationships surrounding
Speaker 1: the International Space Station. We've seen Russia refusing to sense
Speaker 1: engines for rockets um and as they are closing this off,
Speaker 1: we've even seen them hold hostage of thirty six one
Speaker 1: web satellites at the back of door launchpad in Kazakhstan.
Speaker 1: And so as they are becoming more protectivists of their
Speaker 1: space industry, it's creating many opportunities that are opening up
Speaker 1: for commercial space business outside of Russia. So there's a
Speaker 1: lot going on, and you know, the military and defense
Speaker 1: side of it is roamly critical at this time. So
Speaker 1: let's put a market lens on this. How do you
Speaker 1: play it? How do you trade it? So, yeah, we
Speaker 1: created UFO to provide a diversified vehicle for investors that
Speaker 1: want to get global diversification to the to the space industry.
Speaker 1: So we have over forty companies currently in UFO specializing
Speaker 1: in all different areas. So you have your defense uh
Speaker 1: and and even weapons manufacturers that are helping to build
Speaker 1: different technologies that help militaries around the world utilizing space
Speaker 1: their satellites, communications, observations, surveillance, which is also very critical
Speaker 1: not just for military times, but for for many other things,
Speaker 1: even including tracking climate change. So, you know, with so
Speaker 1: many relevant areas that are becoming priorities around the world,
Speaker 1: spaces helping address many of these problems and providing solutions.
Speaker 1: Is it is there a point where you think we
Speaker 1: need to have um many different multiple space ETFs because
Speaker 1: it's it's become such a big business that you can
Speaker 1: break it down in so many different ways. I would
Speaker 1: never say that, you know, we we need more competition.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm really happy with the partners that we've made
Speaker 1: in the index that we've licensed. The underlying index is
Speaker 1: actually a collaboration with a former director of research from
Speaker 1: the Space Foundation actually helped build the most popular global
Speaker 1: model that's used for actually calculating the size, growth and
Speaker 1: change of the space industry. So we have a really
Speaker 1: great team that we love working with, and there's been
Speaker 1: a ton of research that actually goes into developing this concept.
Speaker 1: It wasn't just hey can you build one, let's go
Speaker 1: and license it. There was a lot of work that
Speaker 1: was done beforehand, and um, they really look at companies
Speaker 1: deriving revenues from the space industry. So this is the
Speaker 1: first sure play global space etf out there, and it
Speaker 1: was one done with a lot of consideration taking into
Speaker 1: before bringing this product out. Just want to quickly ask,
Speaker 1: what's your favorite space movie? I mean, we had a
Speaker 1: big debate about this. I'll watch anything with space related um,
Speaker 1: and definitely tons of TV shows, but happy to be yours.
Speaker 1: It's hard. I mean, I don't know. Armageddon is great,
Speaker 1: Intergalactic is amazing. Um, you know I love two thousand
Speaker 1: and one. In two thousand and ten, I'm gonna I
Speaker 1: love space movies as well. So I just thought i'd
Speaker 1: get you. Really liked Passengers honestly, for Lawrence thought it
Speaker 1: was very good. Yeah, very good. Peter Stormare I think
Speaker 1: is the best space astronaut. He's the one who always
Speaker 1: plays the crazy, drunk cosmonaut even though he's not Russian,
Speaker 1: he's actually Swedish anyway, Andrew, thanks for joining us. Always
Speaker 1: a pleasure talking to you. Andrew chain in there um
Speaker 1: from procure Am. He is the CEO. Thanks for listening
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen
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Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller V
Speaker 1: three pen on Ball Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
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