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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you happy Friday? Welcome in

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Speaker 1: to another episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Parolt. You guys kid follow me across all

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Speaker 1: of my socials at Sports Talk met in this podcast

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Speaker 1: being brought to you by your friends at DraftKings. All right,

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Speaker 1: so we don't get these very often, and when we do,

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Speaker 1: we will celebrate them.

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Speaker 2: Last night was really good.

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Speaker 1: There aren't too many nights where we go six and oho,

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Speaker 1: and we nailed that game last night between the Packers

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Speaker 1: and the Lions. Every bet placed, every bet cashed. Lions

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Speaker 1: first half good, Green Bay plus three and a half

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Speaker 1: good from the live stream Packers and the over same

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Speaker 1: game teaser good Jamison Williams over fifty and a half

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Speaker 1: yards receiving good, Jared govthrow pick at plus money good.

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Speaker 1: Calves win and cover against the Nuggets six and oh.

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Speaker 1: Up four point five to three units on the day.

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Speaker 1: We will take it. It goes into a very good

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Speaker 1: spot for us in the NFL because we are now

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Speaker 1: up over eleven units in the NFL in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: and we were up over three units in prop market

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Speaker 1: betting in the NFL so far. Here in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: So we've had a very good run in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: We've stayed very hot in the NFL over the last

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Speaker 1: three weeks.

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Speaker 2: We've been really, really good.

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Speaker 1: We continue to stay hot here on a Thursday night

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Speaker 1: with two or STORRT with five bets, five and oh

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Speaker 1: on that game on Thursday night. So when I go

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Speaker 1: five and oh or six and oh, I don't like

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Speaker 1: to come back and go heavy because the likelihood is

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Speaker 1: I'm going to have a slowdown, right, just the nature

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Speaker 1: of the math of it, right, So I tend to

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Speaker 1: go a little bit smaller, and I'm going to go

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Speaker 1: a little bit smaller here today. I have one college

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Speaker 1: football bet, I have one college basketball bet, and I

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Speaker 1: have NBA player props for you guys coming up here

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Speaker 1: today for the Daily Juice podcast. We have a huge

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Speaker 1: card on Saturday, all right, So I'm going to go

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Speaker 1: a little bit late on Friday because We're going to

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Speaker 1: be really heavy on Saturday with the conference championship games.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, five six units or more in play

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Speaker 1: for Saturday. Cannot wait to watch the college football playoffs

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Speaker 1: or another playoff play that too, but the championship Saturday's

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Speaker 1: games are going to be just epic and awesome. So

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Speaker 1: it's the first time I believe the status. It's the

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Speaker 1: first time in like fifteen years we've had every conference

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Speaker 1: I think it's two thousand and six that every conference

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Speaker 1: championship game has a number under seven for Saturday. It's

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Speaker 1: pretty cool. So a lot of good games are expected

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Speaker 1: on Saturday. So we will do that coming up here

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Speaker 1: for Friday and for Saturday. But first, let's talk about

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Speaker 1: so let's get to the Mountain West Conference championship game

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Speaker 1: UNLV up against Boise. Okay, some stats to pay attention

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Speaker 1: to here. So what's wild is that everyone everyone says

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Speaker 1: it's hard to beat a team twice, right, Well, in reality,

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Speaker 1: the numbers would tell you otherwise. Teams facing the same

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Speaker 1: team for a second time in a conference championship game,

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Speaker 1: the team that lost is twenty six and forty two

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Speaker 1: straight up in the rematch. Not good, However, against the number,

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Speaker 1: it's thirty three, thirty three and one. So the books

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Speaker 1: are just these two teams played in Vegas. I was there.

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Speaker 1: Vegas lost two games at home this year, two games overall.

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Speaker 1: I was there for both of them. Every game that

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Speaker 1: Vegas won, I was not at. I will not be

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Speaker 1: at this game tonight. I will not be there for

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Speaker 1: Boise hosting Vegas. Vegas hasn't beaten Boise since nineteen seventy six.

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Speaker 1: I was born in nineteen seventy seven. Vegas has lost

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Speaker 1: eight consecutive games to Boise State. If Vegas wins this game,

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Speaker 1: Vegas is going to the College Football playoffs as the

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Speaker 1: twelve seed. Huh barry otum in Vegas. Their win total

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Speaker 1: was seven and a half. You guys reminded me that

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Speaker 1: we bet over and half wins. We went three to

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Speaker 1: zero to one on our future bets in college football

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Speaker 1: this year. That's really good. We had U and LV

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Speaker 1: over seven and a half wins. They may go to

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. They're ten and two. They may be eleven

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Speaker 1: and two going to the playoffs. Obviously, it's all about

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Speaker 1: Ashton genty, right, but Vegas did a really good job

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Speaker 1: of stuffing him stopping him when they played here. Now

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Speaker 1: they held him to about one hundred and twenty five yards,

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Speaker 1: but he wasn't two hundred and fifty with three touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: He didn't run wild. Vegas has the better defense. The

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Speaker 1: little dirty secret of this game is that Vegas's defense

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Speaker 1: is better.

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Speaker 2: Here's the question.

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Speaker 1: Can the tackles in the offensive line for Vegas give

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Speaker 1: hodjj Malik Williams enough time to find Ricky White and

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Speaker 1: company down the fields. That didn't happen in the first meeting.

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Speaker 1: He threw a really bad pick inside the red zone,

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Speaker 1: his own red zones to his own inside zone twenty

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Speaker 1: yard line. The seven yard Vegas missed a field goal.

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Speaker 1: Vegas had a chance in that game to shock the world.

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Speaker 1: It didn't happen, but they had a shot. And I

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Speaker 1: think Vegas is going to do a much better job

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Speaker 1: of correcting themselves here. And they've gone on the road

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Speaker 1: and won every game this year. They are six and

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Speaker 1: zero straight up on the road. Now this is Boise

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Speaker 1: but they lost twenty nine to twenty five teams that

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Speaker 1: lost the first matchup in almost seventy percent of the time,

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Speaker 1: they lose the second game by a smaller margin than

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Speaker 1: they lost the first game. Vegas losing by three is

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Speaker 1: a really big possibility here, like a really big possibility.

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Speaker 1: Vegas has won at Houston, at Kansas, at Utah State,

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Speaker 1: at Oregon State, at Hawaii, at San Jose State, six

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Speaker 1: and oh. Now Boise is six and oh at home. Okay,

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Speaker 1: straight up, don't think I'm completely forgetting about Boise State

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Speaker 1: and what they have done. But they're three and three

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Speaker 1: ats at home, four and two ats Vegas on the road,

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Speaker 1: including a cover at San Jose State in their last

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Speaker 1: road game, which they were laying seven and a half

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Speaker 1: points and they won by eleven. I think this is

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Speaker 1: a three point win for Boise State. For good measure,

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Speaker 1: we get a four point win as well for Boise State.

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Speaker 1: Vegas catching five plus five UNLV plus five against Boise

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Speaker 1: State absolutely sprinkle money line. Absolutely sprinkle money line. But

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Speaker 1: we're going to take the points here. Un LV plus

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Speaker 1: five four and a half is good two. But we

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Speaker 1: get five here in Vegas plus five for U and

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Speaker 1: LV against Boise State here tonight for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: Let's see how many points Vegas can put up. My

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Speaker 1: gut tells me the game is going to go under

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Speaker 1: to pretty big number at fifty eight. I think the

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Speaker 1: game goes under, but I'm not gonna play it per se.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go ahead and take Boise take Vegas

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Speaker 1: plus five, and say, if you want something extra, bet

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Speaker 1: the under in the game.

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Speaker 2: As well.

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Speaker 1: To college basketball, on a Friday night, Illinois is at Northwestern.

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Speaker 1: This number is three and a half. It opened up

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Speaker 1: at three. It's been bet up to three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Northwestern at home is just one three and one so

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Speaker 1: far this year. Illinois one and one. But this game

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Speaker 1: falls into my really not automatic play, but it's highly

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Speaker 1: likely I bet a lot of these things. Illinois played

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Speaker 1: against Alabama in Birmingham. It wasn't a true road game.

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Speaker 1: It was a quasi road game. They got curb stomped.

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Speaker 1: Now Northwestern is not Alabama, but this is the first

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Speaker 1: true road game for Illinois this season. We have faded

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Speaker 1: this a lot. I'm going to fade it again. According

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Speaker 1: to Ken Palm, this is a four point win for Illinois.

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Speaker 1: Numbers three and a half. Can we get it to

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Speaker 1: be three two one? Northwestern is not a pushover, okay.

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Speaker 1: They have the thirty eighth ranked defense efficiency adjusted efficiency

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Speaker 1: in college football. At college basketball, they are not great

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Speaker 1: in three point and two point defense, but not horrible either,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteenth and one hundred and fifty third

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Speaker 1: and two point defense. Illinois is number one an effective

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Speaker 1: field goal percentage to the number twenty four in adjusted efficiency,

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Speaker 1: eighty ninth in offensive efficiency of Northwestern. They are not

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Speaker 1: a one to ninety one an effective field goal percentage,

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Speaker 1: but one hundred and sixtieth and three point percentage. But

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Speaker 1: this is going to be a rocking gym for Wells Ryan,

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Speaker 1: for Illinois to walk in there. And we know what

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Speaker 1: Northwestern does with Chris Collins when it comes to home games.

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Speaker 1: They have lost three games this year. They lost at Dayton,

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Speaker 1: they lost on a neutral to Butler, and they lost

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Speaker 1: on the road at Iowa. But at home they beat

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Speaker 1: UNLV on a neutral, I should say sixty six to

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Speaker 1: sixty one. At home they beat Pepperdine, Montana State, Illinois,

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Speaker 1: Eastern Illinois, and Illinois Chicago not a murderers row Lehigh

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Speaker 1: as well. But I like home dogs and this number

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Speaker 1: should be bigger the numbers. I just said numbers should

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Speaker 1: be bigger, right, Like I just give you all those

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Speaker 1: defensive stats. It's like, wait a minute, why is this

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Speaker 1: number not bigger? This number should be higher. Well, it's not.

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Speaker 1: It's four or three and a half. It's a four

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Speaker 1: point win, seventy four to seventy. I'll take the home

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Speaker 1: dog first true road game Friday night in Chicago for

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Speaker 1: Chris Collins.

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Speaker 2: Team in Northwestern.

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Speaker 1: Give me the points plus three and a half, Northwestern

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Speaker 1: plus three and a half, now U and LV plus

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Speaker 1: five Northwestern plus three and a half. I will put

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Speaker 1: at least two NBA player props on the betting pros

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Speaker 1: app before the games tip off. Here on Friday night,

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Speaker 1: there's a gigantic slate of NBA games you'll get at

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Speaker 1: least two player props out of me. If you want

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Speaker 1: to bet the Celtics team total. That number is not

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Speaker 1: out Celtics first half team total at home against the Bucks,

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Speaker 1: but be wary of it because Boston has not scored

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Speaker 1: fifty eight points in a first half in the two

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Speaker 1: games against the Bucks so far this year, or over

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Speaker 1: fifty eight. They scored fifty eight in one game in

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Speaker 1: fifty three in the other. Watch out for where that

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Speaker 1: number is. If that number is anywhere over fifty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half, I wouldn't play it, Okay. I think

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Speaker 1: that's a little bit of a trap that the books

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Speaker 1: are going to set here. But I think if you

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Speaker 1: see it around fifty seven fifty six and a half,

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Speaker 1: seven and a half, I think you're safe to play it.

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Speaker 1: But I'd be a little bit wary just because the

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Speaker 1: Bucks play slower. We'll see about the availability for Drew

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Speaker 1: Holiday former Buck, the availability for Jason Tatum who didn't

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Speaker 1: play in their last game. So's check on that just

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Speaker 1: a little bit before you bet that first half team

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Speaker 1: total for the Celtics.

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Speaker 2: But at home, as I've said before.

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Speaker 1: Between fifty eight and sixty two, I think it's good

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Speaker 1: to play it, just blindly, play it until you know

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Speaker 1: it's been hitting very consistently at home. Be a little

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Speaker 1: careful of it tonight just because the Bucks and they

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Speaker 1: haven't and it's been sort of a loser so far

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Speaker 1: for Boston against the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: But that's a play if you want. But I'll put

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Speaker 2: it on the app.

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Speaker 1: Go down on the Bending Pros app and search at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt and you can see the player pit

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Speaker 1: thrayer props I'll put up for the NBA later on today.

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Speaker 1: Here for us on a Friday, once again, the plays

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Speaker 1: were going UNW plus five, Northwestern plus three and a

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Speaker 1: half with the player props to come minus Matt Parol

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Speaker 1: following us all socials. At Sports Talk Matt every morning

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Speaker 1: they Deal Juice podcast presented by DraftKings