WEBVTT - 2/28/26: IRAN WAR: Trump RISKS IT ALL For Israel 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:02.560 All right, guys, we're very lucky to be joined this 0:00:02.600 --> 0:00:05.320 morning for instant analysis from doctor Tree to Parsi, who, 0:00:05.320 --> 0:00:07.560 of course is alongside a great front of the show. 0:00:08.360 --> 0:00:11.240 He is with the Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft. 0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:13.360 So great to see you, sir, Good to be with you. 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:17.800 So just your first reaction to the launching of this 0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:22.360 joint Israeli US regime change war against the Iranian government. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:26.120 I mean, obviously, this is absolutely terrible. It's a violation 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.120 of international law. It's a violation of US law that 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:31.680 there's not been a vote, there's not been a debate. 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:34.720 In fact, there's a vote schedule for Tuesday. It appears 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.520 as if he almost wanted to start it before the vote, 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:40.200 so instead of that war powers vote becoming a turrent, 0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:43.440 that became a deadline for him. But also I think 0:00:43.440 --> 0:00:45.800 it's you know, I have to admit that I was wrong. 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:47.640 I don't know if you remember. I wrote that piece 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:50.360 in August of last year predicting that these Raelis would 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:52.440 start the war again, and I thought that it would 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:55.960 happen sometime before the end of December of last year. 0:00:56.520 --> 0:00:59.080 Of all the scenarios that I considered, the one that 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.360 I found to be the least likely is one in 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:04.319 which the United States would be fully on board. I 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:06.720 was more worried that these Ralis would start something and 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:10.120 drag the US into it or something along those ways. 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:12.400 But the fact that these radiers would be fully on board, 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:14.039 the US would be fully on board and take the 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:16.559 lead on it is something. I just thought that Trump 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:20.280 would have enough of a care of the opinion in 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:23.520 his own megabase to realize the political downside. It's not, 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:26.120 as you know, talking about any type of a moral 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:29.880 consideration on his end, obviously, but a political consideration. But 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:32.720 even that seems to have been completely set aside in 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:35.119 order for him to do this well. 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:37.440 In fairness to you, you know, when you look at 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:41.400 the landscape, you see the political people have to realize 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:44.920 this is a disaster. The military people realize it's a disaster. 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.720 Our allies in the region outside of Israel did not 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.640 want this war. Our allies in Europe, I mean, they're all, 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:54.760 you know, put issuing supportive statements now, but they also 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:58.960 were not eager for this war. So what was the 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:02.279 piece that we were all missing in terms of looking 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:04.760 at this analysis in this landscape. I mean, I was 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:06.760 obviously and I know you were too deeply concerned we 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:08.960 would end up in this war with a run. But 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:12.040 if you just look at it from a strategic perspective 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:15.440 and all of these different pieces, there is something about 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:16.960 it that seems to not add up. 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:20.200 I think that. I mean, it's a great question, and 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:21.920 I want to say that, you know, I don't think 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:24.359 I have the full answer in any wayship or form, 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:25.840 but I think there's a couple of things we can 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:30.120 point to. First is the sugar High from Venezuela. The 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:34.080 fact that that operation went as smoothly as it did, 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:37.760 at least from a military standpoint, not a single American casualty, 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:42.440 seems to really have cemented a view in Trump's mind 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:45.760 that he is, you know, he's operating in a different 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:49.360 dimension that everyone who's told him, you can't move the 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:53.440 embassy to Jerusalem, you can't give Golan to the Israelis, 0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:56.760 you can't kill so lay MONI, you can't bomb for though, 0:02:56.800 --> 0:02:58.600 you can't do all of these things, that all of 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:01.640 them have always been wrong. That he has managed to 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:03.840 do it and there has not been any real repercussions, 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:06.440 which of course is not entirely true, and that as 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:09.280 a result he's just gotten some sort of a superhuman 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:14.640 view over himself in which he has again taken the 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:18.560 advice by others about the dangers of this with a 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:23.440 tremendous amount of assault and skepticism. Because what we have 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:26.120 in this situation is not one in which there were 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:28.240 a lot of people in the White House pushing for this. 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:31.520 The main person pushing for this was Trump, and the 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:34.359 other people pushing for it were outside of the government, 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:36.840 or at least of the administration. They were in the Senate, 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.160 the pro Israeli crowd. It was the Israeli government, but 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:42.400 it was not a lot of people inside the government 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.520 that was doing this. All of these leaks that has 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:49.160 come out almost on a daily basis in mainstream media, 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:52.320 with military personnel declaring all the kind of challenges that 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:54.960 they're faced with, this are all there to kind of 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:58.080 push him back or at least win more time. And 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:02.280 I think it reflects again on the difficulty from their 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:04.600 standpoint to actually do this in a successful way with 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:07.720 a degree of expectation that Trump now seems to have 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.760 based on a couple of operations that went much better 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:14.320 than most people had expected. I think that's one element 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:16.960 of it. The other element is and I mentioned this 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:20.279 on the show. Before the Israelis in the December twenty 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:24.720 ninth meeting really managed to give Trump the impression that 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.920 the Iranians are much weaker than they are and that 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:33.159 he has this amazing, once in a lifetime opportunity to 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:35.279 be able to get rid of this regime. We heard 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:37.240 that in his speege talking about how this has been 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:40.200 going on for forty seven years. You know that he 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:42.719 is the person who has this opportunity that has never 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:45.400 been a better opportunity than this, And we saw that 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:48.320 and the way that Witcoff declared that, you know, Trump 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:51.720 was frustrated that the Iranis had not surrendered yet because 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.680 he had the wrong expectation that they were so much 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:56.880 weaker than they actually are, and that surrender was in 0:04:56.960 --> 0:05:01.400 the cars. I think a fundamental misunder standing on Trump's 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:05.600 end is that he thought the more aircraft carriers he 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:08.000 brings to the Persian Gulf, for to the Indian Ocean, 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:11.560 the scarier the Iranians will be and eventually they will cave, 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:16.280 not understanding that what the Iranian theocracy fears far more 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:20.960 than the aircraft carriers is capitulation and surrender they believe 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:24.080 they can win, they can survive a war, and frankly, 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:25.880 they may not be wrong about that, particularly if the 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:28.520 US is not going in with ground troops. There's a 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:32.160 highlightode that they will survive this. But they cannot survive 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:36.200 a capitulation or a surrender because their support based inside 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:39.400 of the country has already shrunk. The people that are 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:43.480 left supporting this theocracy are even more important to the 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:45.800 theocracy at this point because they have lost so much 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:49.039 other support. And the people who are left tend to 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.040 be the most hard line and they will never forgive 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:56.200 a surrender. But they can definitely live with a war 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:59.120 that is lost as long as it is fought. And 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:03.800 this is that undamenttal psychological misunderstanding on Trump's side, in 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:06.400 which he felt that he could just scare them into surrender. 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:09.799 I sort of hate to ask you about this because 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:13.520 you're such a sophisticated and dignified person, But what about 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.360 the Epstein files. You know, I mean, clearly, Trump, there 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:18.280 are things in there that have been hidden from the 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.800 American public. We know that they have not been forthcoming 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:23.840 in following the law that Trump signed into law that 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:26.520 requires the full sum release. We know he's moved Gallayne 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:29.200 Maxwell to this club fed prison. We know that very 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:31.719 likely whatever is contained in those files, Israel, you know, 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:33.960 likely has access to and does have full knowledge of. 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:36.000 And of course we know that Donald Trump himself had 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:38.680 a close personal friendship with Jeffrey Epstein over the course 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:41.160 of many years. I mean, could that be a potential 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:42.400 factor at play here as well? 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:46.240 It absolutely could be, because we don't have access to 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:48.640 all of those filed and as you have reported on 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:50.159 the show as well, a lot of the stuff that 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.360 actually contains Trump's name was not released, so we don't 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.000 know what exactly is in those files. So I think 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:58.320 what we can say is that clearly there is some 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:02.040 missing factors that would explain how we got to this point. 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:05.159 Could Epstein be one of them? Absolutely, you cannot rule 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:09.200 it out, and you cannot also assertively or conclusively say 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:12.080 that it was the factor. But to completely dismiss the 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.040 idea that this has something to do with it, I 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:17.040 think would be problematic because there's no evidence to exclude it. 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:19.760 There's also no smoking gun evidence at this point that 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:21.640 says this is the reason why this is happening. 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:24.560 Let me ask you about a few conflicting reports that 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:27.520 we're getting, you know, understanding that as we're unfolds, there's 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.240 all sorts of misinformation and lies and propaganda and things 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.120 to sort through. So the Israelis are claiming that they 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:40.120 believe they successfully assassinated Ietola company. He on the other hand, 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:42.320 the Iranians are saying he's going to come out shortly 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.240 and make a speech. So first let's just talk about, 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:49.080 you know, the possibility that he certainly was targeted, the 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:53.000 possibility that he could have been assassinated, how significant do 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:54.760 you believe that would be, and what would be some 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.000 of the fallout from that targeting. 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:03.520 Undoubtedly would be tremendous significant if he were to be assassinated. 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:07.200 What would follow, however, is actually a little bit more 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:10.960 difficult to predict. First of all, there's a significant risk 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:13.760 that the administration is well aware of that this will 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:17.800 actually put a fire throughout the region because their Shia 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:22.760 populations in Iraq, in Lebanon in Saudi and Bahrain in 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:28.040 the UAE in Pakistan, who view Harmony as a religious 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.240 figure and as a religious leader because he is a 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:35.079 grand Diatola or imagine, have needs. So this is something 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:37.240 that I know in the summer they were very concerned about. 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:40.280 Whether they have now completely dismissed that or not remains 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:42.600 to be seen. The Israeli argument has been that it 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:45.720 is necessary to kill him to essentially kill an era, 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:50.040 an era of the Islamic Republic. It's symbolic in its value. 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:53.600 Now what would follow? I would presume that the Iranias 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:56.400 already have decided the secession at this point. In fact, 0:08:56.640 --> 0:08:59.559 they've declared that they decided the secession for several key 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:02.960 posts about five lines down, and that would be very 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:04.760 odd if they were to do that. But not having 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:08.120 done that with the Supreme Leader, could it erupt into 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:10.520 protests on the streets in the sense that some people 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:13.319 would think that this is an opportunity that absolutely also 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:15.800 could happen. What we have seen so far, and I 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:17.920 think this is an important point to keep in mind, 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.120 we've not seen any such product. I spoke to someone 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:23.840 in Tehran just before this show. No scenes yet of 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:27.160 people celebrating this in a large or any significant number 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:30.400 at all. In fact, one thing that has happened that 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.600 probably will make it more difficult for that type of 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:37.160 sentiment to grow is that you had this bombing of 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:41.240 the school girl of this girls school in Hoemos, girlan 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:44.360 province in Iran, in which about fifty or so children 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:48.200 were killed now in a war. Unfortunately, these things do 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:51.800 happen statistically. If this were to go on for a month, 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:54.360 they would almost certainly have happened. The fact that it 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:58.000 happened on the first day, I think is very significant. 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:01.200 This is different if it had happened on one after 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:05.000 a large number of leaders of the state apparatus had 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:07.880 been assassinated, and then this happened, it would happen in 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:10.719 a different context then. But this happened on the first day, 0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:13.800 before any of those other people of any significance had 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:17.000 been killed. And I think that also puts an impression 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:19.440 in the minds of most Devarniys what this actually is, 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:21.200 what the cost of this is, That this is not 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:25.480 some of these romanticized views of war that is now 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:29.719 being spewed by some exiled pretenders to a throne or 0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:32.400 pretenders to power, who are portraying this as if this 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:34.600 would be some sort of an honorable war while they're 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:39.839 themselves sitting in Maryland and enjoying their daily lives. So 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:42.600 I think that in themselves has had and will have 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:46.160 a psychological impact on what the fallout will be if 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:49.880 you start seeing that key people within the state apparatus 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.440 are killed. The other thing that I think is also 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:56.080 very important to keep in mind here is that by 0:10:56.080 --> 0:11:00.080 all accounts that I've spoken to, the Supreme Leader is 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:03.280 seen by many as an obstacle. Inside of you are 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:06.000 for those who actually want to strike back much harder, 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:09.080 who believe that the Irani has committed a mistake by 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:13.840 responding so politely to previous attacks to Israeli attacks waited 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:17.480 for too long in the strategy called strategic patients, they 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.560 view up how many, as an obstacle for what they 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:22.760 would want to have done, which is strike back harder 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:25.240 or even go for a nuclear weapon. And for those 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:28.839 who wanted to have a much more aggressive diplomatic approach, 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:32.640 we would have included direct negotiations with Trump himself, which 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:34.520 I think could have made a difference in all of 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:36.840 this that it had been done earlier. They also see 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:40.680 him as an obstacle because he's been too adamant about 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:44.480 not taking that step if he is taken out and 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:48.240 there's a different leader or taking power, or if it's 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:51.080 a council, etc. He also means that some of those 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:55.160 questions will be revisited, and Iran may go in a 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:57.600 very different direction, one that perhaps is not at all 0:11:57.640 --> 0:11:59.400 to the liking of the United States. 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:04.080 I saw you engaging online with some potential reports that 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:09.280 jailed dissidents, jailed dissident leaders in Iran had also been targeted. 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.240 You know, what do you make of those potential reports 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.360 and what can we say, you know, based on again 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:16.480 early reporting about what has been hit and what was 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:21.120 ultimately targeted, about what the goals of this war actually 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:24.719 are from the US and Israeli perspective, based on where 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:25.959 they are attempting to strike. 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:29.000 I really try to wrap my head around that. We 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:31.560 do know, for instance, that they did try to target 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:35.680 the house, the empty house of the former president amadinajad 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:37.960 He was not there and they did not hit that house, 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.640 to hit a house about two blocks or two houses 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.880 down the street. But they also appear to have tried 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:49.120 to hit the house that the dissident politician mi Jose Musavi, 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.280 who was the person who won the elections in two 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.520 thousand and nine and would have been president, who was 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:55.720 a reformist had it not been for the election fraud 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.600 in which Amadinaja took power again. He's been in house 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.959 arrest now since for about seventeen years. That house was 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.160 also targeted. It seems to be an effort to eliminate 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.520 all elements of this system, whether they are dissidents, whether 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:12.640 they're reformists, whether they're in power right now, And that 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.680 would be more in line with what I think these 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.000 Raelis would want, which is to have a complete power 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:21.080 vacuum at the top, which makes it far more likely 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:23.160 that you will have a civil war or that you 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.800 would have essentially a complete not just regime collapse and implosion, 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:30.480 but state collapse. I'm not so sure if that really 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:32.959 is what the administration wants. I certainly would believe that 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:35.040 they would recognize that this is not in the interests 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:38.480 of the United States to see that level of instability. 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:41.920 And whether each and every target is coordinated between the 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.040 two side I have no insight into, but I could 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:46.280 definitely see if this was just an Israeli war, that 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:48.600 they would do this. The US being involved in it 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.240 raises some question marks in my head. 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:53.400 And what do we know so far about the Iranian 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:58.120 counter attacks which have been widespread US basis throughout the region, 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:01.920 and of course directly targeting Israel as well. Obviously they 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.680 also control those straits of Hormus, which are incredibly key 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:09.360 for shipping in general, but specifically for oil shipping. What 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:11.439 do you make so far of what we know about 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.560 the counter attacks and what Iranian capabilities may be. 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:17.400 What we see from the counter attacks is that they 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.880 happen very fast, which is about two hours into it 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:23.840 rather than twelve to eighteen hours last time. They were 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:27.240 not taken by surprise. They're not at a very very 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:30.080 robust level in terms of a large number. But it's 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.720 also very important to understand the attacks so far by 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:35.440 US and Israel is not at all at the same 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:37.720 level as it was during the Israel War of June 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.640 of last year. Tonight we may see something much much more, 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:43.920 But what we seem so far has not at all 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:46.840 been at the same intensity as we saw during the summer, 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:49.800 and given the fact that the firepower is far far 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.920 greater right now, I think that in and of itself is interesting. 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:56.680 Whether that is because they wanted to slow start slowly, 0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:59.960 whether they thought that perhaps the initial wave of attempt 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.880 a decapitation would be successful, it's difficult to tell. But 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:08.680 the Iranian response has also in that sense been very widespread, 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:12.320 very fast, but also not as robust as it was before. 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.200 We're not seeing the same number of missiles being hit 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:17.840 at Israel, for instance, but we are seeing that they're 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.440 targeting almost all of the bases where at least almost 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.560 all countries in the GCC Iraqi air bases operated by 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:26.720 the US have been attacked. We saw that there was 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.480 an attack that appeared to have gone towards the base 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:34.480 in Kuwait, but the missile was deflected because of the 0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:37.800 air defense system and landed at the airport in Kuwait, 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:41.040 and of Kuwait is of course a very small country. 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:43.600 We've seen attacks similar things seems to have happened in 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:48.160 Dubai in which the Palm neighborhood in Dubai was hit, 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:52.000 and we've seen attacks in Kutar. We've seen attack in Bahrain. 0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:54.800 In Bahrain, and we saw some very strange images of 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.240 Bahraini's cheering once they saw that the drone actually did 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:02.280 hit the US base where the fifth Fleet is and 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:04.000 what that was it was actually drowning. It was not 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:07.320 a missileze one of the same rather slow moving drones 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:09.920 that the Iranis have been selling the Russians that Russians 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:14.320 have been using in Ukraine. And it's just very surprising 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:16.600 that that drone would have been able to get through 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.480 all the air defense systems at the US naval base 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:23.200 in Bahrain. Whether that is because the air defense systems 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.640 were overwhelmed or something else, I don't know, but it 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:27.800 was actually very surprising to see that a drome would 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:31.960 would make its way into the otherwise very fortified American 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:32.480 base there. 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.800 Yeah, I mean also remarkable to hear the celebration, as 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:39.040 you said, from the Bahrainians who were filming that. You know, 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:41.120 what did you make of that? And obviously all of 0:16:41.160 --> 0:16:43.080 the US allies in the region have already put out 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:46.600 supportive statements. We've seen Western Europe, you know, once again 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:52.640 embarrassingly coming along and almost across the board supporting these aggressive, 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:56.080 illegal strikes from the US and Israel. Mark Karney, who 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:58.080 just gave you know, great speech about how we're turning 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.000 the page blah blah blah. You know, he winds right 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.840 up behind the US in this illegal war as well. 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:06.719 But what is the sentiment among people in the region, 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:09.480 do you suspect, you know, beyond the top leadership? 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:12.880 Let me ask her, But I do want to I 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:18.600 can't resist to comment on Carney and what he just said, 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:20.639 mindful of the fact that he gave a speech that 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:25.240 was widely celebrated at Davos in which he famously said 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:29.359 that we're taking the sign down, mentioned very clearly that 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:34.439 we knew that international law was invariably implemented based on 0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:39.439 the identity of the attacker and the identity of the victim, 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:41.720 and here we have a perfect case of that in 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.120 which this is, as you pointed out, a clear violation 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:48.639 of international law. But Carney, the Finnish Prime Minister, who 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:52.840 also wrote this article about values based realism, could not 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:55.840 even get themselves to even get close to a condemnation 0:17:55.960 --> 0:18:00.640 or even actually using the term international law. So when 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:04.360 Carne says that the rules based order essentially is overWe 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:08.879 we're taking down the side. Many of us, perhaps a 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:12.120 bit of a wishful thinking, believe that perhaps this would 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:14.159 mean that he's going to do a re embrace of 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:17.400 international law rather than a rules based system, because law 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:20.120 is much firmer. Instead, we're seeing that he's not even 0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:24.159 using the word international law. At the first instance in 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:26.439 which his new little thesis would have been tested, he 0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:30.600 utterly failed, and so did the vast majority of European leaders, 0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:35.919 save the exception of Ireland, Norway, Switzerland and Spain, the 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:38.560 same group who incidentally also stood firmly on the side 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:43.320 of international law when it came to the genocide in Gaza. 0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:46.480 Now when it comes to the regional states, this is 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:48.280 part of the reason why they were so against this 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:50.840 in the first place. They knew that they would be 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:55.040 victimizing this. They have to, of course, from their standpoint, 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.840 come up with very very strong condemnations. These are, at 0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:00.800 the end of the day, attacks on their soil. And 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:03.800 the Iranian response is, this is not meant to attack you. 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:06.480 This is meant to attack bases that are being used 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:10.480 directly or indirectly to attack our soul. End result of 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:12.840 all of this may very well end up being that 0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:16.959 rather than having American basis on your soul providing you 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:20.560 with security, it actually may end up becoming the opposite, 0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.280 that the very principle is negated, that you're actually at 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:26.199 a greater risk of being attacked precisely because you have 0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:29.080 these bases on your soul. And very importantly in this 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:31.320 case as well as the case of the past summer, 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:34.919 the United States have vacated all of those bases before 0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:38.399 it attacked. Both the personnel have been moved out and 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.320 most of the equipment have been moved out, which then 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:43.199 raises the question, what's the point of these basis If 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.439 they were supposed to defend these regions, these states against Iran, 0:19:46.680 --> 0:19:49.359 and now when you're having a war, you're actually vacating them, 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:51.320 what's in it for these states? 0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:56.840 Yeah? Well, well, finally, you know, it's hard to see 0:19:57.119 --> 0:20:00.000 what the off ramp could be for the US, given 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.480 that Trump just came out and said, hey, we're aiming 0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:05.880 for regime change here, and anything short of that, you know, 0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:09.000 based on his own metric of success, would be would 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.080 be a failure. However, there are again some reports out 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.880 that they reached out, the US reached out to Iran 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:19.600 looking for already some sort of a negotiated seasfire. There 0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:22.119 are also reports that the Iranians have reached out and 0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:24.920 offered some sort of concessions in exchange for a ceasefire. 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:26.840 I have no idea whether either of those reports are 0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:29.680 accurate at this point, But my question for you is, 0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:33.920 you know, do you see some potential near term off 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:36.800 ramp that could you know, keep this it's already a 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.840 regional war, but keep it from escalating into an even 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:42.120 broader and lengthier disaster. 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:45.600 I could let me first say I think the most 0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:48.800 likely scenarios is either that Trump continues this until he 0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:51.439 gets some sort of a regime implosion and need the 0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:54.640 clearest victory, but also washes his hands or whatever follows. 0:20:55.080 --> 0:20:57.440 And this has been very clear in the internal conversations 0:20:57.440 --> 0:20:59.679