1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:02,560 Speaker 1: All right, guys, we're very lucky to be joined this 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: morning for instant analysis from doctor Tree to Parsi, who, 3 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: of course is alongside a great front of the show. 4 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:11,240 Speaker 1: He is with the Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft. 5 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: So great to see you, sir, Good to be with you. 6 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 1: So just your first reaction to the launching of this 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: joint Israeli US regime change war against the Iranian government. 8 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 2: I mean, obviously, this is absolutely terrible. It's a violation 9 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: of international law. It's a violation of US law that 10 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: there's not been a vote, there's not been a debate. 11 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 2: In fact, there's a vote schedule for Tuesday. It appears 12 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,520 Speaker 2: as if he almost wanted to start it before the vote, 13 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 2: so instead of that war powers vote becoming a turrent, 14 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 2: that became a deadline for him. But also I think 15 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: it's you know, I have to admit that I was wrong. 16 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: I don't know if you remember. I wrote that piece 17 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 2: in August of last year predicting that these Raelis would 18 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: start the war again, and I thought that it would 19 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 2: happen sometime before the end of December of last year. 20 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 2: Of all the scenarios that I considered, the one that 21 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 2: I found to be the least likely is one in 22 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 2: which the United States would be fully on board. I 23 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 2: was more worried that these Ralis would start something and 24 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 2: drag the US into it or something along those ways. 25 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 2: But the fact that these radiers would be fully on board, 26 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 2: the US would be fully on board and take the 27 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,559 Speaker 2: lead on it is something. I just thought that Trump 28 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 2: would have enough of a care of the opinion in 29 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 2: his own megabase to realize the political downside. It's not, 30 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 2: as you know, talking about any type of a moral 31 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 2: consideration on his end, obviously, but a political consideration. But 32 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: even that seems to have been completely set aside in 33 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 2: order for him to do this well. 34 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: In fairness to you, you know, when you look at 35 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 1: the landscape, you see the political people have to realize 36 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: this is a disaster. The military people realize it's a disaster. 37 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: Our allies in the region outside of Israel did not 38 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: want this war. Our allies in Europe, I mean, they're all, 39 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: you know, put issuing supportive statements now, but they also 40 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: were not eager for this war. So what was the 41 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,279 Speaker 1: piece that we were all missing in terms of looking 42 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: at this analysis in this landscape. I mean, I was 43 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: obviously and I know you were too deeply concerned we 44 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 1: would end up in this war with a run. But 45 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: if you just look at it from a strategic perspective 46 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: and all of these different pieces, there is something about 47 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 1: it that seems to not add up. 48 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 2: I think that. I mean, it's a great question, and 49 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 2: I want to say that, you know, I don't think 50 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 2: I have the full answer in any wayship or form, 51 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 2: but I think there's a couple of things we can 52 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 2: point to. First is the sugar High from Venezuela. The 53 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 2: fact that that operation went as smoothly as it did, 54 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 2: at least from a military standpoint, not a single American casualty, 55 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 2: seems to really have cemented a view in Trump's mind 56 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 2: that he is, you know, he's operating in a different 57 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 2: dimension that everyone who's told him, you can't move the 58 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 2: embassy to Jerusalem, you can't give Golan to the Israelis, 59 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 2: you can't kill so lay MONI, you can't bomb for though, 60 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 2: you can't do all of these things, that all of 61 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 2: them have always been wrong. That he has managed to 62 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 2: do it and there has not been any real repercussions, 63 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 2: which of course is not entirely true, and that as 64 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 2: a result he's just gotten some sort of a superhuman 65 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:14,640 Speaker 2: view over himself in which he has again taken the 66 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 2: advice by others about the dangers of this with a 67 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 2: tremendous amount of assault and skepticism. Because what we have 68 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 2: in this situation is not one in which there were 69 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 2: a lot of people in the White House pushing for this. 70 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 2: The main person pushing for this was Trump, and the 71 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 2: other people pushing for it were outside of the government, 72 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: or at least of the administration. They were in the Senate, 73 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 2: the pro Israeli crowd. It was the Israeli government, but 74 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: it was not a lot of people inside the government 75 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: that was doing this. All of these leaks that has 76 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 2: come out almost on a daily basis in mainstream media, 77 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 2: with military personnel declaring all the kind of challenges that 78 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 2: they're faced with, this are all there to kind of 79 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 2: push him back or at least win more time. And 80 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 2: I think it reflects again on the difficulty from their 81 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: standpoint to actually do this in a successful way with 82 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 2: a degree of expectation that Trump now seems to have 83 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 2: based on a couple of operations that went much better 84 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 2: than most people had expected. I think that's one element 85 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 2: of it. The other element is and I mentioned this 86 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 2: on the show. Before the Israelis in the December twenty 87 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 2: ninth meeting really managed to give Trump the impression that 88 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 2: the Iranians are much weaker than they are and that 89 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 2: he has this amazing, once in a lifetime opportunity to 90 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,279 Speaker 2: be able to get rid of this regime. We heard 91 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 2: that in his speege talking about how this has been 92 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 2: going on for forty seven years. You know that he 93 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 2: is the person who has this opportunity that has never 94 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: been a better opportunity than this, And we saw that 95 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 2: and the way that Witcoff declared that, you know, Trump 96 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 2: was frustrated that the Iranis had not surrendered yet because 97 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 2: he had the wrong expectation that they were so much 98 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: weaker than they actually are, and that surrender was in 99 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 2: the cars. I think a fundamental misunder standing on Trump's 100 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 2: end is that he thought the more aircraft carriers he 101 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 2: brings to the Persian Gulf, for to the Indian Ocean, 102 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 2: the scarier the Iranians will be and eventually they will cave, 103 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:16,280 Speaker 2: not understanding that what the Iranian theocracy fears far more 104 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 2: than the aircraft carriers is capitulation and surrender they believe 105 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 2: they can win, they can survive a war, and frankly, 106 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 2: they may not be wrong about that, particularly if the 107 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 2: US is not going in with ground troops. There's a 108 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,160 Speaker 2: highlightode that they will survive this. But they cannot survive 109 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 2: a capitulation or a surrender because their support based inside 110 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 2: of the country has already shrunk. The people that are 111 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 2: left supporting this theocracy are even more important to the 112 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 2: theocracy at this point because they have lost so much 113 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 2: other support. And the people who are left tend to 114 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,040 Speaker 2: be the most hard line and they will never forgive 115 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 2: a surrender. But they can definitely live with a war 116 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 2: that is lost as long as it is fought. And 117 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 2: this is that undamenttal psychological misunderstanding on Trump's side, in 118 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 2: which he felt that he could just scare them into surrender. 119 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:09,799 Speaker 1: I sort of hate to ask you about this because 120 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 1: you're such a sophisticated and dignified person, But what about 121 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 1: the Epstein files. You know, I mean, clearly, Trump, there 122 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 1: are things in there that have been hidden from the 123 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: American public. We know that they have not been forthcoming 124 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 1: in following the law that Trump signed into law that 125 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: requires the full sum release. We know he's moved Gallayne 126 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: Maxwell to this club fed prison. We know that very 127 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: likely whatever is contained in those files, Israel, you know, 128 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 1: likely has access to and does have full knowledge of. 129 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: And of course we know that Donald Trump himself had 130 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: a close personal friendship with Jeffrey Epstein over the course 131 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 1: of many years. I mean, could that be a potential 132 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: factor at play here as well? 133 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 2: It absolutely could be, because we don't have access to 134 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: all of those filed and as you have reported on 135 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 2: the show as well, a lot of the stuff that 136 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 2: actually contains Trump's name was not released, so we don't 137 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 2: know what exactly is in those files. So I think 138 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 2: what we can say is that clearly there is some 139 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:02,040 Speaker 2: missing factors that would explain how we got to this point. 140 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 2: Could Epstein be one of them? Absolutely, you cannot rule 141 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 2: it out, and you cannot also assertively or conclusively say 142 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 2: that it was the factor. But to completely dismiss the 143 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 2: idea that this has something to do with it, I 144 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 2: think would be problematic because there's no evidence to exclude it. 145 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 2: There's also no smoking gun evidence at this point that 146 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 2: says this is the reason why this is happening. 147 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: Let me ask you about a few conflicting reports that 148 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: we're getting, you know, understanding that as we're unfolds, there's 149 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: all sorts of misinformation and lies and propaganda and things 150 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: to sort through. So the Israelis are claiming that they 151 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 1: believe they successfully assassinated Ietola company. He on the other hand, 152 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: the Iranians are saying he's going to come out shortly 153 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: and make a speech. So first let's just talk about, 154 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: you know, the possibility that he certainly was targeted, the 155 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: possibility that he could have been assassinated, how significant do 156 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: you believe that would be, and what would be some 157 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: of the fallout from that targeting. 158 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 2: Undoubtedly would be tremendous significant if he were to be assassinated. 159 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 2: What would follow, however, is actually a little bit more 160 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 2: difficult to predict. First of all, there's a significant risk 161 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 2: that the administration is well aware of that this will 162 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 2: actually put a fire throughout the region because their Shia 163 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 2: populations in Iraq, in Lebanon in Saudi and Bahrain in 164 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 2: the UAE in Pakistan, who view Harmony as a religious 165 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 2: figure and as a religious leader because he is a 166 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:35,079 Speaker 2: grand Diatola or imagine, have needs. So this is something 167 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 2: that I know in the summer they were very concerned about. 168 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 2: Whether they have now completely dismissed that or not remains 169 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 2: to be seen. The Israeli argument has been that it 170 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 2: is necessary to kill him to essentially kill an era, 171 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 2: an era of the Islamic Republic. It's symbolic in its value. 172 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 2: Now what would follow? I would presume that the Iranias 173 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 2: already have decided the secession at this point. In fact, 174 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,559 Speaker 2: they've declared that they decided the secession for several key 175 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 2: posts about five lines down, and that would be very 176 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 2: odd if they were to do that. But not having 177 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 2: done that with the Supreme Leader, could it erupt into 178 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 2: protests on the streets in the sense that some people 179 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,319 Speaker 2: would think that this is an opportunity that absolutely also 180 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 2: could happen. What we have seen so far, and I 181 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 2: think this is an important point to keep in mind, 182 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 2: we've not seen any such product. I spoke to someone 183 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 2: in Tehran just before this show. No scenes yet of 184 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 2: people celebrating this in a large or any significant number 185 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 2: at all. In fact, one thing that has happened that 186 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 2: probably will make it more difficult for that type of 187 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 2: sentiment to grow is that you had this bombing of 188 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 2: the school girl of this girls school in Hoemos, girlan 189 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 2: province in Iran, in which about fifty or so children 190 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,200 Speaker 2: were killed now in a war. Unfortunately, these things do 191 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 2: happen statistically. If this were to go on for a month, 192 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 2: they would almost certainly have happened. The fact that it 193 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 2: happened on the first day, I think is very significant. 194 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 2: This is different if it had happened on one after 195 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 2: a large number of leaders of the state apparatus had 196 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 2: been assassinated, and then this happened, it would happen in 197 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,719 Speaker 2: a different context then. But this happened on the first day, 198 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 2: before any of those other people of any significance had 199 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 2: been killed. And I think that also puts an impression 200 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 2: in the minds of most Devarniys what this actually is, 201 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 2: what the cost of this is, That this is not 202 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 2: some of these romanticized views of war that is now 203 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:29,719 Speaker 2: being spewed by some exiled pretenders to a throne or 204 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 2: pretenders to power, who are portraying this as if this 205 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 2: would be some sort of an honorable war while they're 206 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:39,839 Speaker 2: themselves sitting in Maryland and enjoying their daily lives. So 207 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 2: I think that in themselves has had and will have 208 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 2: a psychological impact on what the fallout will be if 209 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 2: you start seeing that key people within the state apparatus 210 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 2: are killed. The other thing that I think is also 211 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 2: very important to keep in mind here is that by 212 00:10:56,080 --> 00:11:00,080 Speaker 2: all accounts that I've spoken to, the Supreme Leader is 213 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 2: seen by many as an obstacle. Inside of you are 214 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 2: for those who actually want to strike back much harder, 215 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 2: who believe that the Irani has committed a mistake by 216 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 2: responding so politely to previous attacks to Israeli attacks waited 217 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 2: for too long in the strategy called strategic patients, they 218 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 2: view up how many, as an obstacle for what they 219 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 2: would want to have done, which is strike back harder 220 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 2: or even go for a nuclear weapon. And for those 221 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:28,839 Speaker 2: who wanted to have a much more aggressive diplomatic approach, 222 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 2: we would have included direct negotiations with Trump himself, which 223 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 2: I think could have made a difference in all of 224 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 2: this that it had been done earlier. They also see 225 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 2: him as an obstacle because he's been too adamant about 226 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 2: not taking that step if he is taken out and 227 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 2: there's a different leader or taking power, or if it's 228 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 2: a council, etc. He also means that some of those 229 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 2: questions will be revisited, and Iran may go in a 230 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 2: very different direction, one that perhaps is not at all 231 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 2: to the liking of the United States. 232 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: I saw you engaging online with some potential reports that 233 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: jailed dissidents, jailed dissident leaders in Iran had also been targeted. 234 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: You know, what do you make of those potential reports 235 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 1: and what can we say, you know, based on again 236 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 1: early reporting about what has been hit and what was 237 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: ultimately targeted, about what the goals of this war actually 238 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,719 Speaker 1: are from the US and Israeli perspective, based on where 239 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: they are attempting to strike. 240 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 2: I really try to wrap my head around that. We 241 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 2: do know, for instance, that they did try to target 242 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 2: the house, the empty house of the former president amadinajad 243 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 2: He was not there and they did not hit that house, 244 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 2: to hit a house about two blocks or two houses 245 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 2: down the street. But they also appear to have tried 246 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 2: to hit the house that the dissident politician mi Jose Musavi, 247 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 2: who was the person who won the elections in two 248 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 2: thousand and nine and would have been president, who was 249 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 2: a reformist had it not been for the election fraud 250 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 2: in which Amadinaja took power again. He's been in house 251 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 2: arrest now since for about seventeen years. That house was 252 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 2: also targeted. It seems to be an effort to eliminate 253 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 2: all elements of this system, whether they are dissidents, whether 254 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 2: they're reformists, whether they're in power right now, And that 255 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,680 Speaker 2: would be more in line with what I think these 256 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 2: Raelis would want, which is to have a complete power 257 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 2: vacuum at the top, which makes it far more likely 258 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 2: that you will have a civil war or that you 259 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 2: would have essentially a complete not just regime collapse and implosion, 260 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 2: but state collapse. I'm not so sure if that really 261 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,959 Speaker 2: is what the administration wants. I certainly would believe that 262 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 2: they would recognize that this is not in the interests 263 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 2: of the United States to see that level of instability. 264 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: And whether each and every target is coordinated between the 265 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 2: two side I have no insight into, but I could 266 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 2: definitely see if this was just an Israeli war, that 267 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 2: they would do this. The US being involved in it 268 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 2: raises some question marks in my head. 269 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: And what do we know so far about the Iranian 270 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 1: counter attacks which have been widespread US basis throughout the region, 271 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 1: and of course directly targeting Israel as well. Obviously they 272 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 1: also control those straits of Hormus, which are incredibly key 273 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: for shipping in general, but specifically for oil shipping. What 274 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 1: do you make so far of what we know about 275 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 1: the counter attacks and what Iranian capabilities may be. 276 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 2: What we see from the counter attacks is that they 277 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 2: happen very fast, which is about two hours into it 278 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 2: rather than twelve to eighteen hours last time. They were 279 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 2: not taken by surprise. They're not at a very very 280 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 2: robust level in terms of a large number. But it's 281 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 2: also very important to understand the attacks so far by 282 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 2: US and Israel is not at all at the same 283 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 2: level as it was during the Israel War of June 284 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 2: of last year. Tonight we may see something much much more, 285 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 2: But what we seem so far has not at all 286 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 2: been at the same intensity as we saw during the summer, 287 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 2: and given the fact that the firepower is far far 288 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 2: greater right now, I think that in and of itself is interesting. 289 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 2: Whether that is because they wanted to slow start slowly, 290 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 2: whether they thought that perhaps the initial wave of attempt 291 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 2: a decapitation would be successful, it's difficult to tell. But 292 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 2: the Iranian response has also in that sense been very widespread, 293 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 2: very fast, but also not as robust as it was before. 294 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 2: We're not seeing the same number of missiles being hit 295 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 2: at Israel, for instance, but we are seeing that they're 296 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 2: targeting almost all of the bases where at least almost 297 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 2: all countries in the GCC Iraqi air bases operated by 298 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 2: the US have been attacked. We saw that there was 299 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 2: an attack that appeared to have gone towards the base 300 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 2: in Kuwait, but the missile was deflected because of the 301 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 2: air defense system and landed at the airport in Kuwait, 302 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 2: and of Kuwait is of course a very small country. 303 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 2: We've seen attacks similar things seems to have happened in 304 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 2: Dubai in which the Palm neighborhood in Dubai was hit, 305 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 2: and we've seen attacks in Kutar. We've seen attack in Bahrain. 306 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 2: In Bahrain, and we saw some very strange images of 307 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 2: Bahraini's cheering once they saw that the drone actually did 308 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 2: hit the US base where the fifth Fleet is and 309 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 2: what that was it was actually drowning. It was not 310 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 2: a missileze one of the same rather slow moving drones 311 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 2: that the Iranis have been selling the Russians that Russians 312 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 2: have been using in Ukraine. And it's just very surprising 313 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 2: that that drone would have been able to get through 314 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 2: all the air defense systems at the US naval base 315 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 2: in Bahrain. Whether that is because the air defense systems 316 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 2: were overwhelmed or something else, I don't know, but it 317 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 2: was actually very surprising to see that a drome would 318 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 2: would make its way into the otherwise very fortified American 319 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 2: base there. 320 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean also remarkable to hear the celebration, as 321 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: you said, from the Bahrainians who were filming that. You know, 322 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 1: what did you make of that? And obviously all of 323 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: the US allies in the region have already put out 324 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: supportive statements. We've seen Western Europe, you know, once again 325 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: embarrassingly coming along and almost across the board supporting these aggressive, 326 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: illegal strikes from the US and Israel. Mark Karney, who 327 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: just gave you know, great speech about how we're turning 328 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: the page blah blah blah. You know, he winds right 329 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: up behind the US in this illegal war as well. 330 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:06,719 Speaker 1: But what is the sentiment among people in the region, 331 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: do you suspect, you know, beyond the top leadership? 332 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 2: Let me ask her, But I do want to I 333 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 2: can't resist to comment on Carney and what he just said, 334 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 2: mindful of the fact that he gave a speech that 335 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 2: was widely celebrated at Davos in which he famously said 336 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 2: that we're taking the sign down, mentioned very clearly that 337 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 2: we knew that international law was invariably implemented based on 338 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:39,439 Speaker 2: the identity of the attacker and the identity of the victim, 339 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 2: and here we have a perfect case of that in 340 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 2: which this is, as you pointed out, a clear violation 341 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:48,639 Speaker 2: of international law. But Carney, the Finnish Prime Minister, who 342 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 2: also wrote this article about values based realism, could not 343 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 2: even get themselves to even get close to a condemnation 344 00:17:55,960 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 2: or even actually using the term international law. So when 345 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,360 Speaker 2: Carne says that the rules based order essentially is overWe 346 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 2: we're taking down the side. Many of us, perhaps a 347 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 2: bit of a wishful thinking, believe that perhaps this would 348 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 2: mean that he's going to do a re embrace of 349 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 2: international law rather than a rules based system, because law 350 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 2: is much firmer. Instead, we're seeing that he's not even 351 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 2: using the word international law. At the first instance in 352 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 2: which his new little thesis would have been tested, he 353 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 2: utterly failed, and so did the vast majority of European leaders, 354 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 2: save the exception of Ireland, Norway, Switzerland and Spain, the 355 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 2: same group who incidentally also stood firmly on the side 356 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 2: of international law when it came to the genocide in Gaza. 357 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 2: Now when it comes to the regional states, this is 358 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 2: part of the reason why they were so against this 359 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 2: in the first place. They knew that they would be 360 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 2: victimizing this. They have to, of course, from their standpoint, 361 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 2: come up with very very strong condemnations. These are, at 362 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 2: the end of the day, attacks on their soil. And 363 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 2: the Iranian response is, this is not meant to attack you. 364 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 2: This is meant to attack bases that are being used 365 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 2: directly or indirectly to attack our soul. End result of 366 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 2: all of this may very well end up being that 367 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,959 Speaker 2: rather than having American basis on your soul providing you 368 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 2: with security, it actually may end up becoming the opposite, 369 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 2: that the very principle is negated, that you're actually at 370 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,199 Speaker 2: a greater risk of being attacked precisely because you have 371 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 2: these bases on your soul. And very importantly in this 372 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 2: case as well as the case of the past summer, 373 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,919 Speaker 2: the United States have vacated all of those bases before 374 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 2: it attacked. Both the personnel have been moved out and 375 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 2: most of the equipment have been moved out, which then 376 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,199 Speaker 2: raises the question, what's the point of these basis If 377 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,439 Speaker 2: they were supposed to defend these regions, these states against Iran, 378 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 2: and now when you're having a war, you're actually vacating them, 379 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 2: what's in it for these states? 380 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: Yeah? Well, well, finally, you know, it's hard to see 381 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: what the off ramp could be for the US, given 382 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: that Trump just came out and said, hey, we're aiming 383 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,880 Speaker 1: for regime change here, and anything short of that, you know, 384 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: based on his own metric of success, would be would 385 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 1: be a failure. However, there are again some reports out 386 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 1: that they reached out, the US reached out to Iran 387 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: looking for already some sort of a negotiated seasfire. There 388 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,119 Speaker 1: are also reports that the Iranians have reached out and 389 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,920 Speaker 1: offered some sort of concessions in exchange for a ceasefire. 390 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: I have no idea whether either of those reports are 391 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 1: accurate at this point, But my question for you is, 392 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 1: you know, do you see some potential near term off 393 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: ramp that could you know, keep this it's already a 394 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 1: regional war, but keep it from escalating into an even 395 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 1: broader and lengthier disaster. 396 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 2: I could let me first say I think the most 397 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 2: likely scenarios is either that Trump continues this until he 398 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 2: gets some sort of a regime implosion and need the 399 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,640 Speaker 2: clearest victory, but also washes his hands or whatever follows. 400 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,440 Speaker 2: And this has been very clear in the internal conversations 401 00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,679 Speaker 2: that no one wants to take responsibility for what happens 402 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 2: to you afterwards. And that's this is the big difference 403 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 2: between regime change and regime collapse. In the regime change, 404 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,719 Speaker 2: you're actually actively trying to install a new government, and 405 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 2: their track record becomes your track record. In regime collapse 406 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 2: or implosion, all you're doing is getting rid of the 407 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 2: existing one, and then you say that you have nothing 408 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,880 Speaker 2: to do with whatever comes afterwards. So I can see 409 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 2: that scenario in the sense that if this goes on 410 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 2: for a time and if they managed to kill a 411 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 2: lot of the different leaders of the current system, that 412 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 2: there would be some sort of an implosion and then 413 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 2: he would declare victory, even though you know you would 414 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 2: have instability, potentially civil war and all of these different 415 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 2: kinds of things. The other scenario is that the Iranians 416 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 2: continue to strike back the last the outlast Trump. This 417 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 2: becomes very costly for the US. Casualty rates, inflation, global 418 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,479 Speaker 2: or markets are destabilized, all of these different things, and 419 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 2: then the pressure on Trump internationally from the American public, 420 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 2: from his own base starts to become so strong that 421 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 2: he looks for an exit, and then he may actually 422 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 2: take the deal that was on the tape, the deal 423 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 2: that is way better than what Obama managed to secure 424 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,679 Speaker 2: and that Trump nevertheless rejected, and then he may take that, 425 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 2: and then suddenly they cleared out of victory and say 426 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 2: that thanks to my bombing campaign, we achieved this, even 427 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 2: though the Omani Foreign Minister made very clear that this 428 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 2: is already on the table and you are rejecting it, 429 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 2: you're going for a war of choice. There is that 430 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 2: other scenario as well. I don't find it to be 431 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 2: as likely, but it's very difficult to put any numbers 432 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 2: on it, which is that after a couple of rounds, 433 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 2: both sides feel that they can go back to the 434 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 2: negotiating table with their faces having been saved, and they 435 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 2: may actually be able to go back to the same 436 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 2: agreement as existed before, the same offer on the table, 437 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 2: but both of them can say that, you know, now 438 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 2: we got it because of this exchange. Trump can claim 439 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 2: that he bombed them, that he was very successful. Levonians 440 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,879 Speaker 2: can claim that they struck back, they were very successful, 441 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 2: and then they come to some sort of agreement. The 442 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 2: reason why I think that's going to be difficult, though, 443 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 2: is that at this point we've always said that there's 444 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 2: no trust between the US and Iran, but there's never 445 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:09,120 Speaker 2: ever been less trust than there is now. And as 446 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 2: a result, even if they were to come to some 447 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,919 Speaker 2: form of agreement, it does seem to me extremely difficult 448 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 2: that the deal actually would be implemented, that it would endure, 449 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 2: that it would be anything more than essentially a cease 450 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 2: fire with a pretense of having a deal beyond that. 451 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, because Israel is certainly not going to be 452 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 1: satisfied with that either. 453 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 2: Absolutely. Yeah, very interesting. Is very different in all of this. 454 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, And to your point on the trust, once again 455 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,199 Speaker 1: we see the US using diplomacy as a ruse. The 456 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 1: reports Israelis are bragging about how this has been in 457 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 1: the works for months, that the date was set weeks ago. 458 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 1: You know, CNN is now reporting about some biblical justification 459 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 1: reason related to Amelek that they chose the state in particular, so, 460 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: you know, hard to trust a country when they're constantly 461 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 1: using negotiations and diplomacy as a ruse to launch new wars. 462 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 2: If I said just one thing on that, yeah, I 463 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 2: think they Israelis have an interest to really push that 464 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 2: narrative that this was a ruse from the outset, that 465 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 2: this will already plan because they do want to destroy 466 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 2: America's credibility as a diplomatic force as a negotiator because 467 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,959 Speaker 2: they were against these negotiations in the first place. And 468 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 2: the more you push the narrative that this was a 469 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,199 Speaker 2: lie from the outset, the more easily you can avoid 470 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,479 Speaker 2: any future negotiations. I'm not convinced that it really was. 471 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 2: I think there were elements. I think there was some sincerity, 472 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 2: but ultimately Trump felt for the type of pressure that 473 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,159 Speaker 2: he has proven himself to be far too susceptible towards. 474 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 2: That doesn't mean that this wasn't a ruse at some point. 475 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,880 Speaker 2: This doesn't mean that this is in any way, shape 476 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 2: or form forgivable, or that it is not illegal. But 477 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 2: I think we have to recognize nothing would serve the 478 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 2: Israeli interest more then to completely destroy America's credibility as 479 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 2: a negotiating partner, because that would avoid all of these 480 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,479 Speaker 2: headaches that these Raelis have had that at at various 481 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 2: points in the United States have actually looked for diplomatic 482 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 2: exit wrops. 483 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, Trump is certainly making it easy for them. 484 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 2: Too, certainly to make that case. 485 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, no doubt about it. Well, doctor Parci, thank you 486 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 1: so much for your analysis, and I hope we'll get 487 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,239 Speaker 1: to speak again with you in the future because there 488 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 1: certainly will be a lot to talk about. 489 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 2: Thank you so much.