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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough. No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

5
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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that? Shop with mind and buddy, and

7
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Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements, the most.

9
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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying the wall.

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Speaker 3: It's left to of the wide eyed drilled bibus.

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Speaker 1: How old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wonderful the Soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 4: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lieba. I'm

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Speaker 4: back in the power of this podcast. Although I considered

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Speaker 4: staying away since everden one oh and oh when I

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Speaker 4: don't show up to work, but joining me as always,

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Speaker 4: and thank you guys for steering the ship last week.

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Speaker 4: BJ Cunningham and Anthony da Bundo. But before I bring

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Speaker 4: those two gentlemen in, as we navigate another weekend of

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Speaker 4: Premier League soccer, then we'll touch some Bundesliga. We'll discuss

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Speaker 4: League Oh Syria a La Liga. Give out our three

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Speaker 4: leg underdog parlay and our best bets in the Premier League.

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Speaker 4: But before we get out to all of that, a

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Speaker 4: reminder that Wonder Goal is proudly presented by Bet three

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Speaker 4: sixty five and Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.

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Speaker 1: It believes that every sport should be epic.

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Speaker 4: Every tournament, every game, every point, every play, from the

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Speaker 4: moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under

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Speaker 4: the radar. See for yourself when you sign up today

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Speaker 4: with promo Code Action and you'll get three hundred and

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Speaker 4: sixty five dollars in bonus bets when you bet just

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Speaker 4: one do whatever the sport, whatever the moment, It's never ordinary.

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Speaker 4: At Bet three sixty five, twenty one or older only,

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Speaker 4: you must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey,

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Speaker 4: Ohio or Virginia. And if you or someone you know

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Speaker 4: has a gambling problem and wants help, please call one

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Speaker 4: eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio and

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Speaker 4: Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms

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Speaker 4: and conditions apply. BJ Anthony another podcast Darby for us

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Speaker 4: here as Antony's Liverpool takes on Anthony Spurs we'll start there.

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Speaker 4: It's a twelve thirty pm kickoff Eastern Time. Definitely the

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Speaker 4: headliner of what is a pretty strange Premier League slate.

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Speaker 4: I would say Spurs at home. They are the underdog

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Speaker 4: plus one ninety Liverpool plus one ten and the draw

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Speaker 4: is three to one. The James Madison watch begins. I

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Speaker 4: think all three of us are going to be on

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Speaker 4: the same side here as long as we get the

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Speaker 4: end news we want. Isn't that right, Bja, That is right?

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Speaker 3: I mean Tottham really shouldn't be a you know, a

51
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Speaker 3: home dog here against Liverpool. If James Madison plays, he

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Speaker 3: is as key as anybody really is right now early

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Speaker 3: on in this Premier League season to his individual team

54
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Speaker 3: because of what he means for Tottenham and their build

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Speaker 3: up play like. He is the one who is creating

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Speaker 3: everything in the middle of the pitch, connecting from their

57
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Speaker 3: two three five. He's the one that's coming back receiving

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Speaker 3: the ball and really just breaking teams down. I mean,

59
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Speaker 3: leads them in basically every single offensive category that you

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Speaker 3: can think of, from progressive passes to shock creating actions

61
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Speaker 3: to excuse me too, passing in the penalty area. James

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Speaker 3: Madison has been everything to them. He's their free kick taker,

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Speaker 3: like he is so so important to what Tottenham wants

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Speaker 3: to do right now. The flip side of that is

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Speaker 3: Liverpool just isn't really pressing anymore. And I think that's

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Speaker 3: kind of like a storyline that's getting lost, is that

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Speaker 3: we've talked about how Liverpool is kind of lost their

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Speaker 3: abit to be this high pressing giant. Well, if you

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Speaker 3: watch their matches, they've kind of just been sitting off

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Speaker 3: and setting these pressing traps. They haven't really tried to

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Speaker 3: go up and press high because klop knows that the

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Speaker 3: usual lineup he wants to play doesn't have a ball

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Speaker 3: stopper in the middle of the pitch and that has

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Speaker 3: really hampered Liverpool and they've basically gone with the approach

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Speaker 3: they're just going to outscore teams and it's worked so far.

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Speaker 3: And you know, it's the funny Liverpool cycle of is

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Speaker 3: just like every single match they concede early, they play

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Speaker 3: like crap for a little while, they finally find their

79
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Speaker 3: foot footing into the match and then they end up

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Speaker 3: winning three one, outscoring their opponents. But now I could say,

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is the best offense They've played so

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Speaker 3: far this season like they have not played an elite

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Speaker 3: build up team, which I would consider Tottenham getting to

84
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Speaker 3: that point now. Tottenham, I think did struggle with Arsenal's

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Speaker 3: Manda man pressing for large stretches of North London Derby.

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Speaker 3: But once Madison and Sun started dropping a little deeper

87
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Speaker 3: and helping those guys out, they did start to play

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Speaker 3: a little bit better and started to evade Arsenal's press.

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Speaker 3: Liverpool is not going to do that to them. I

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Speaker 3: mean Liverpool's outside the top ten and build up completion

91
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Speaker 3: percentage allowed and high turnovers, so I think Tom's gonna

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Speaker 3: be able to build up with pretty relative ease. If

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Speaker 3: James Madison is in the lineup. You know, I do

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Speaker 3: make Tottenham a slight home favorite here, just basically pretty

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Speaker 3: close to dead on to pick him. So if Madison

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Speaker 3: is playing, get Totenham at plus a half minus one

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Speaker 3: thirty five are better. That's definitely good enough for me.

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Speaker 3: And I know you're gonna be on the money line, Michael.

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Speaker 3: I definitely do show value on the money line as well.

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Speaker 3: I'm just not as courageous as you per usual.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's a classic situation of it's fifty

102
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Speaker 4: to fifty if he's gonna play. That's what it feels

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Speaker 4: like right now. And if he does come into the lineup,

104
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Speaker 4: this number is gonna go on in one direction. It's

105
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Speaker 4: gonna come down on Tottenham. So I think I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: play it before the news comes out and hope to

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Speaker 4: get better than two to one here even if he

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Speaker 4: doesn't play. I just think that there's always gonna be

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Speaker 4: enough mistakes in Liverpool against teams like Tottenham who will

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Speaker 4: press you and are frenetic, and they have guys that

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Speaker 4: when they do turn the ball over and if you

112
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Speaker 4: do make a mistake, they'll punish you. So I yeah,

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Speaker 4: I actually think even before the Madison news that I'll

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Speaker 4: take a shot on Tottenham and take a little bit

115
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Speaker 4: of a risk that if he doesn't play, I'll lose

116
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Speaker 4: some CLV because maybe the price goes up a little bit,

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Speaker 4: But it feels like it's being priced like he's not,

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Speaker 4: like bookmakers are just putting out a decent enough price

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Speaker 4: for for people like me, Because if he does come in,

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Speaker 4: it's it's going to go in one direction and I

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Speaker 4: don't think it's going to grow all that much. If

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Speaker 4: if Madison does sit, so yeah, I'll take it. I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna play it before the news.

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Speaker 3: And also mentioned that Liverpool I mean, excuse me, Totenham

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Speaker 3: has a pretty significant rest advantage here. You know, they're

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Speaker 3: out of the fl Cup, they're not playing in Europe,

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Speaker 3: so they basically had a full week of recuperation and

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Speaker 3: rest for their entire team, whereas Liverpool, I mean, this

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Speaker 3: is what can be their fourth match in about ten days.

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Speaker 4: So we'll hear all about it, I'm sure after after

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Speaker 4: the match from Anthony's boy.

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Speaker 3: Is really rotating by the way, like he's still like

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Speaker 3: you know, even though like Soba Sly he was on

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Speaker 3: the bench today, but he obviously came off the bench

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Speaker 3: and played, so it's you know, and even up front

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Speaker 3: like Salas playing every single match like it's I don't know,

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Speaker 3: it's I mean, they have to be some tired legs

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Speaker 3: in that Liverpool team.

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Speaker 2: What do you think, Anthony, Well, BJ and I survived

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Speaker 2: Darby week. We almost came to virtual blows last week

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Speaker 2: over the performance of Arsenal and Tottenham. A good result

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Speaker 2: for Spurs, a fair one I think in the end, BJ,

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Speaker 2: would you agree yes, I would agree, yes, Arsenal did

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Speaker 2: not exploit Spurs in a way that I think Liverpool

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Speaker 2: may do on Saturday, and that is my concern. Arsenal

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Speaker 2: did basically nothing with the ball. The only chances they

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Speaker 2: created came from direct errors from Spurs passing them the

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Speaker 2: ball or giving it away high. And like you said,

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Speaker 2: Arsenal and Liverpool have kind of flipped where Arsenal is

150
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Speaker 2: now the better pressing team, they're better out of possession,

151
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Speaker 2: and Liverpool is better with the ball, better attacking and transition.

152
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Speaker 2: So you know this Arsenal team, when Spurs were defending,

153
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Speaker 2: they were fine. At no point did I feel frightened

154
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Speaker 2: by Arsenal's attack. It was only when Udogi passed it

155
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Speaker 2: right to Nikettia or jay Zu's got the high press

156
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Speaker 2: turnover in the penalty area. I don't think you're going

157
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Speaker 2: to see as much of that from Liverpool because like

158
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Speaker 2: you said, they're not pressing as much, they're not creating

159
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Speaker 2: as many high turnovers. But I think Spurs will just

160
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Speaker 2: kind of give you those opportunities in transition, and I

161
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Speaker 2: think Liverpool is right now the best transition team in

162
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Speaker 2: the world in terms of quick strike stuff, and so

163
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Speaker 2: I think this is going to be a real test

164
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Speaker 2: for Ange in a way that maybe even Arsenal wasn't.

165
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Speaker 2: Now from a number of perspective, I agree. I have

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Speaker 2: Liverpool as the second best team in the league and

167
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Speaker 2: I still can't get to them being this big of

168
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Speaker 2: a road favorite at Tottenham. It's Tottenham has taken some money.

169
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Speaker 2: I mean this was as low as plus one oh

170
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Speaker 2: five plus one ten. It's come down to one fifteen

171
00:08:57,920 --> 00:08:59,760
Speaker 2: one to twenty now. But I think when you look

172
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Speaker 2: at the matchup, you know that scares me. But again,

173
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Speaker 2: if Madison's in, I think Tottenham is more than live here.

174
00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,240
Speaker 2: Like Liverpool has still not defended this season, and we

175
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Speaker 2: talked about this last week before the west Ham match.

176
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Speaker 2: We were like, look like, you know this team is

177
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Speaker 2: you know, fourth or fifth and non penalty XG allowed,

178
00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:18,360
Speaker 2: but like all of the other passing data and ball

179
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Speaker 2: progression stuff says they're like a league average defense, which

180
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Speaker 2: I think they are. So one fun way to play this,

181
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Speaker 2: you know, both teams to score first half. I mean

182
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Speaker 2: that's been like the most profitable bet in the world

183
00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 2: in the English Premier League for the last couple of

184
00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,400
Speaker 2: years because these these teams have been so tilted toward

185
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Speaker 2: attack and Liverpool especially. The number is not great, you know,

186
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Speaker 2: plus two ten, two twenties out there, But I don't

187
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,640
Speaker 2: hate that. I probably will end up sprinkling that because

188
00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,400
Speaker 2: I do think Spurs will find holes in this Liverpool

189
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Speaker 2: defense and I think Liverpool will exploit Spurs and it's

190
00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:52,120
Speaker 2: in their own defense. So in transition, so from a

191
00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,920
Speaker 2: from a matchup perspective, I do expect a lot of chances.

192
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Speaker 2: Spurs have been so cursed against Liverpool if you just

193
00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,720
Speaker 2: go back through the history, like if we take all

194
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:01,240
Speaker 2: of our we do and use it against City and

195
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,559
Speaker 2: then we never get a result against Liverpool. But I

196
00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,280
Speaker 2: do like Spurs here and we'll be betting them if

197
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,640
Speaker 2: we get some good injury news as well. So I'll

198
00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 2: make it three for three on on tip top Tottenham

199
00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:17,120
Speaker 2: and the lads are hang in there. I'll say, all.

200
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,160
Speaker 4: Right, let's talk about Aston Villa and Brighton next. This

201
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,280
Speaker 4: one is at Villa Park. Phyllis plus one forty five,

202
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,160
Speaker 4: Brighton plus one sixty in the draws plus two seventy five.

203
00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,760
Speaker 4: These odds are from our friends at bet three sixty five,

204
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Speaker 4: as are all the odds.

205
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Speaker 1: That reference for these matches.

206
00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:37,480
Speaker 4: I I'm kind of lukewarm here, but I will lean

207
00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,319
Speaker 4: towards Brighton. I just think that the Premier League has

208
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,679
Speaker 4: set up in a way that there's you know, City

209
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Speaker 4: at the top. Anthony says Liverpool is the second best team,

210
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Speaker 4: I think, but they're they're just I think they're probably

211
00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,880
Speaker 4: that the team that's played the best so far of

212
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Speaker 4: a chasing pack for City that includes Brighton, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle, Newcastle,

213
00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,720
Speaker 4: and then there's like the Chelsea kind of man United

214
00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:07,880
Speaker 4: tier and then now there's Aston Villa. So I just

215
00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:12,760
Speaker 4: think that, and it's not not breaking news, but Brighton's

216
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Speaker 4: just a class above Villain. I think that this price

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Speaker 4: looks decent enough to have a shot here on a

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Speaker 4: Villa team. That I mean, they just they've been good,

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Speaker 4: like they've been solid, and they're kind of just continuing

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Speaker 4: to do what they how they fin They're continuing to

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Speaker 4: kind of their trend of how they finished the season

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Speaker 4: under Unai Emery. I think all of us agree that

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Speaker 4: he's a this is a good manager. But when they're

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Speaker 4: playing such high event soccer twenty two goals total in

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Speaker 4: six games and the x G kind of bears that out,

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Speaker 4: that's a dangerous game to play against Brighton, So I'll

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Speaker 4: likely be on the Seagulls here.

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Speaker 3: Bj I will be too, And I think this is

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Speaker 3: a situation where aston Villa, you know, I wouldn't consider

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Speaker 3: Chelsea an elite high pressing team at this juncture. Maybe

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Speaker 3: they'll get to there at some point, but really they've

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Speaker 3: played to elite high pressing teams so far, and it's

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Speaker 3: been Newcastle and you know, you could even make a

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Speaker 3: case for Liverpool, which they did struggle building out against Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: I know we just talked about how they've kind of

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Speaker 3: sat back off a little bit, but in those two matches,

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Speaker 3: I mean aston Villa really really struggled playing out of

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Speaker 3: the back, and that's what they're going to do. Uniamori

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Speaker 3: only wants them to play at the back. He does

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Speaker 3: not want them to play the ball along Brighton. So

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Speaker 3: far the season third and pass per defensive action. Second

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Speaker 3: and build up completion percentage allowed even today against Chelsea.

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Speaker 3: Against Chelsea, I mean, Brighton allowed a seventy seven percent

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Speaker 3: build up completion percentage. That's very, very low in terms

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Speaker 3: of the hierarchy of build up completion percentages. Aston Villa

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Speaker 3: I didn't think they were that good against Chelsea, like

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Speaker 3: they won one nothing. They really did nothing up until

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Speaker 3: the red card point two five x g before the

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Speaker 3: Gusto red card and then after that, obviously playing up

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Speaker 3: a man, they were able to create. But Chelsea would

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Speaker 3: They consist did time and time again, where Brighton can

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Speaker 3: absolutely rip them apart is uniamary. He loves to condense

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Speaker 3: that space in between the lines, not like you play

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Speaker 3: for the middle of the pitch, but he's playing a

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Speaker 3: high line. So Chelsea was time and time again making

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Speaker 3: runs off the back line, getting the ball in behind.

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Speaker 3: But Chelsea's just not good enough of a finishing team

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Speaker 3: or really connecting the ball into the box. If you

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Speaker 3: play a high line against like Matoma, Ferguson March and

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Speaker 3: all the attackers that Brighton has, that's an extremely dangerous

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Speaker 3: game to play, and that's the game that aston Villa

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Speaker 3: is going to try to play here, especially at home.

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Speaker 3: And the flip side of it, if you're not gonna

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Speaker 3: play that high line and you're going to play a

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Speaker 3: low block against Brighton and you're not used to playing

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Speaker 3: a low block, they will absolutely destroy you. They have

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Speaker 3: the second best final third box entry conversion right in

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Speaker 3: the Premier League. Usually the top end of that metric

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Speaker 3: is reserved for teams that are primarily playing in transition,

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Speaker 3: like the Brentfords of the world, where they don't get

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Speaker 3: a lot of final third entries, so a lot of

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Speaker 3: their final third entries are going from transitional opportunities into

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Speaker 3: the box. I mean, Brighton controls a ton of possession,

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Speaker 3: it has a ton of final third entries, So I

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Speaker 3: think this is a really really bad tactical matchup for

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Speaker 3: aston Villa. I think they're going to turn the ball

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Speaker 3: over consistently in their own final third. So I like

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Speaker 3: Brighton here, John o'batt at plus one hundred, I do

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Speaker 3: make Brighton a road favorite around plus one forty, So

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Speaker 3: back on the Seagulls feels good? It does?

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Speaker 1: It feels good? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: You know, last week Brighton rotated and I felt like

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Speaker 2: I may maybe with the sharp is bet of the

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Speaker 2: year with Bourne with plus one and a half. BJ

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Speaker 2: disagreesp But then Metoma comes on at half and it's like, oh,

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Speaker 2: all right, flip the switch, let's start cooking, baby, and

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Speaker 2: it was instantly dead. So that just shows you kind

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Speaker 2: of what a difference he can make, you know, Diabi

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Speaker 2: has been really interesting so far for for Villa. You know,

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Speaker 2: his numbers haven't really like popped popped early on. This

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Speaker 2: is the kind of game where if he's going to

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Speaker 2: do something, they need him. Because Leon Bailey went out

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Speaker 2: with a hamstring injury today at the Carabou Cup. It

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Speaker 2: seems like he's going to miss some time and he

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Speaker 2: you know, with the injuries already that they've had Bwndy

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Speaker 2: like they've kind of they're down to like zannie Ola

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Speaker 2: and a lot of their creativity around Watkins is teetering

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Speaker 2: at the moment. So I'll be interest to see how

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Speaker 2: that looks. But yeah, I mean from a highline perspective,

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Speaker 2: playing this high line like it didn't work against Chelsea.

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Speaker 2: I don't care what the final results said. If you

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Speaker 2: watch the game over and over again, Chelsea were in behind,

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Speaker 2: they had a goal ruled out for this allowed for offside.

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Speaker 2: Then they had you know Jackson who gets a one

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Speaker 2: on one, Chilwell after they were down a man got

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Speaker 2: a one on one. Sterling had a one on one.

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Speaker 2: Martin has made some great saves and whatnot and some

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Speaker 2: bad misses and that's Chelsea for you. But it's a

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Speaker 2: dangerous dangerous way of playing and it's very due to

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Speaker 2: get exposed here and Newcastle has already done it, Liverpool's

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Speaker 2: done It brightens the kind of team that I think

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Speaker 2: could also do that.

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Speaker 4: I suck born with an Arsenal now born with plus

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Speaker 4: four to twenty five at home Arsenal traveling as a

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Speaker 4: minus two hundred favorite the draws plus three fifty antony.

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Speaker 4: I think my question with Arsenal, and we talk about

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Speaker 4: teams a lot on the show that just don't profile

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Speaker 4: it well as favorites. And I know our so know

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Speaker 4: was up it was elite last year and and did

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Speaker 4: it a great job beating up on the lower like

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Speaker 4: the dregs of the Premier League. But are we I

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Speaker 4: think I feel like we're getting to a point where

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Speaker 4: I'm starting to I would get start getting a little

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Speaker 4: nervous about this team getting separation. Perhaps Bourne withth isn't

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Speaker 4: the spot, but like you said, like they just kind

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Speaker 4: of don't. They don't look like they have They put

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Speaker 4: the fear of God and anybody anymore on on the attack.

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Speaker 2: DJ, what do you think?

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Speaker 3: I think, Well, specifically for this match, there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of injuries that we got to talk about, so that's

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Speaker 3: that's the problem here, but Adams too, by the way,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's what Artet has been trying to accomplish, right,

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Speaker 3: It's game control, like that's what he wants. He wants

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Speaker 3: to be able to control matches, not allow teams to

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Speaker 3: beat them in transitional opportunities. Obviously they you know, they

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Speaker 3: get the one goal against Spurs on a on a

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Speaker 3: Georginial mistake. But for large stretches, Arsenal has been able

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Speaker 3: to control matches. Now, the striking partnership or whatever you

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Speaker 3: want to call it, Gaba Jezouser Nikitya hasn't been going

340
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Speaker 3: well to begin the season. They just haven't been finishing

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Speaker 3: that well, and teams have been sitting in deeper against them,

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Speaker 3: when last season they weren't, when they weren't as scared

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Speaker 3: of Arsenal, now they are. So I think what you'll

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Speaker 3: see is that over time Arsenal will get better at

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Speaker 3: breaking down thow blocks, but right now they are kind

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Speaker 3: of struggling and doing that. But Borma's not going to

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Speaker 3: do that in this match. They're going to try to

348
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Speaker 3: press Arsenal high, and I think that's a very dangerous

349
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Speaker 3: game to play now. Looking at the Andrew Party now,

350
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Speaker 3: Socca and Rice are both questionable. Trosart is questionable as well,

351
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Speaker 3: Martinelli is probably out and Party is still out as well.

352
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Speaker 3: So Arsenal will have their usual back four, which has

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Speaker 3: been really really key to them and not conceding a

354
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Speaker 3: lot of these chances. But now we're getting pretty thin

355
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Speaker 3: the midfield where you are going to have to play

356
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Speaker 3: Georgino alongside Fabio Vieira or will it be coiaverts And

357
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Speaker 3: then on the wings it's probably going to be Rhys

358
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Speaker 3: Nelson now because Trosart and Martinelli are hurt, and then

359
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 3: who do you play on the right as well, Like

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Speaker 3: it's a very weird, disjointed situation. And then obviously Arsenal

361
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Speaker 3: has played in the Champions League this upcoming week, so if

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Speaker 3: there is ever a spot, this would be the Bournemouth spot.

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Speaker 3: But I listen, I like Areola. Yeah, but what we've

364
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Speaker 3: seen time and time again so far the season is

365
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Speaker 3: playing these elite build up teams, they've kind of gotten

366
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Speaker 3: ripped apart. So it's great to high press and it's

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Speaker 3: great to play this fun, energetic new style that you

368
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Speaker 3: know gives the fans life and everything. But if you

369
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Speaker 3: can't be effective with it, like you're going to consistently

370
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Speaker 3: concede and give up big chances. So that's the concern

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Speaker 3: here for Bournemouth. So I am passing. I don't really

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Speaker 3: want to bet against my team, but if there was

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Speaker 3: a play on this, you know, I before all the injuries,

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Speaker 3: I did project Arsenal right at around minus one ninety.

375
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Speaker 3: So you know, with all the injuries, I guess you

376
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Speaker 3: can make a case for Borneouth plus one, but I

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Speaker 3: don't think I can do it yet with Bournemouth.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good spot situationally, bad spot tactically, like

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Speaker 4: matchup wise, I would.

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Speaker 3: Say that's the thing.

381
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Speaker 4: Yeah, which is a little scary, Like Mormon.

382
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Speaker 3: Is gonna be really good when they played Burnley, like

383
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:18,679
Speaker 3: that's the team that they need to play where this

384
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Speaker 3: can be really effective against.

385
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Speaker 2: But now they're gonna be really good when they play

386
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Speaker 2: a below average team for the first time off season.

387
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Speaker 2: They still haven't done that yet. I mean they've literally

388
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Speaker 2: they've run the Palace of last year gauntlet here. They've

389
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Speaker 2: played west Ham, Liverpool, Spurs, Brentford, Chelsea Brighton, Arsenal. They

390
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Speaker 2: have two wins this year in the Cup. They haven't

391
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Speaker 2: won I'm hatching the league yet, but they are getting

392
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Speaker 2: healthy at the right time. I think that's the big

393
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,119
Speaker 2: key here. Like Adams is going to be making a return.

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Speaker 2: I don't think for this match looks like but Tyler

395
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Speaker 2: Adams could be the biggest key to them, you know,

396
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Speaker 2: getting more ball winning in the midfield and kind of

397
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Speaker 2: not getting exposed as much in those transitionary moments. So

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Speaker 2: you know, keep an eye on Adams. If this gets

399
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Speaker 2: to one and a quarter, I'm gonna take it at one.

400
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 2: It's just not quite good enough for me. Like I have.

401
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 2: You know, we just had a similar situation, right I

402
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 2: bet Everton plus one against Arsenal. I have Everton rated

403
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,880
Speaker 2: better than Bournemouth, so I can't really get to Bournemuth

404
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 2: plus one here. But I downgraded Arsenal in the derby,

405
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Speaker 2: like I think you had to given how that game

406
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 2: played out. I didn't think they were particularly good in

407
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 2: the derby, and you can just pull out the numbers here, right.

408
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 2: So last season Arsenal finished third in expected goals per ninety,

409
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Speaker 2: second in big scoring chances, first in box entries, fifth

410
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 2: in shots, very good attacking numbers. They finished above their

411
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Speaker 2: XG which is what kept them in the title race

412
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Speaker 2: this season. Eleventh and non penalty XG. And they still

413
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Speaker 2: have not played what I would consider to be an

414
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 2: elite defensive team because they played United in Spurs. They're

415
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,199
Speaker 2: two big matches who I think are flawed defensively so

416
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 2: and there's seventh in shots and sixth and big scoring chances.

417
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 2: They just haven't been a top five attack. So until

418
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Speaker 2: I see more of that, you know, Troussard out, Martinelli out,

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Speaker 2: I'm imagining here. So is it going to be Nicotia

420
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 2: as a winger with jay esus like the same you

421
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Speaker 2: know front three you mentioned soccer.

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Speaker 3: So probably see Omeil Smith row make his probably his

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Speaker 3: premierly first Maree League starting a long time, it would

424
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 3: be my guest, and reach Nelson will probably get a

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Speaker 3: start as well. So it's like, yeah, it's a very

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Speaker 3: barren Arsenal team right now. I would assume that Arteta

427
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 3: is going to favor the Champions League over this match,

428
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Speaker 3: but I don't know.

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Speaker 1: We'll see Bournemouth is getting more and more tempting.

430
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 4: We'll see one number that is not tempting on Saturdays

431
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 4: is Everton minus one sixty seven.

432
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:37,639
Speaker 2: I don't know.

433
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 4: I am flying Everdon minus want sixty seven. It is

434
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 4: a little much anentity. It touched minus one seventy five.

435
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 4: I know that they're hosting Lowton Town and I know

436
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 4: that I love that park. You know that they're they're

437
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,120
Speaker 4: the best team in the world, but considering that two

438
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 4: weeks ago, this this this team was a mess.

439
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 1: They were a mess. When they were a mess.

440
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 2: If you like just pull up the scores and said

441
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 2: how it ever.

442
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 4: Didn't watch the games like you watch the games and

443
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 4: you're like, Okay, you can't.

444
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 1: You just can't. You're not good enough to have.

445
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 2: But they didn't have the good players. Then now they

446
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 2: have the good players playing for now.

447
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, they've got one.

448
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: So long as like Dan Juma, Beto, d c Al

449
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 2: and Harrison are healthy. Everton is an average team in

450
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 2: the Premier League, maybe slightly below.

451
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,679
Speaker 4: Up and Harrison he played today, No, I'm not, I'm

452
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 4: not funny played saying against that.

453
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 1: I'm not.

454
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 4: They're they're they've been much better. They're plus, they're in

455
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 4: the they're in the black.

456
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 1: In terms of expected gold differential.

457
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 4: We know that they've been better than their actual numbers.

458
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 4: But if you watch the games like it's it's eye

459
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 4: test stuff. But if you watch the games, they just

460
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 4: would have six or seven breakdowns a game and you're

461
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 4: just not.

462
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 1: Good enough to do that. Yeah, that's fair.

463
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,360
Speaker 4: So that's what makes them scary, even against Lootontown, who's

464
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 4: five to one on the money line and the draws

465
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 4: plus two eighty A good perform performance from from Everton

466
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 4: today and the cup.

467
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 1: The thing that really worries me though.

468
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 4: They might be the thinnest squad in the entire league

469
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 4: and they didn't really really in the midweek.

470
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 3: Like Thinness squad that that is the team. They just

471
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 3: played Brentford, who is now starting to deal with a

472
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 3: lot of injuries and not don't really have the personnel

473
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 3: in terms of who they've been playing there to make

474
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 3: up for it.

475
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 2: Rico Henry very underrated loss.

476
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 4: So yeah, nonetheless, like evidence up there, right, and yeah,

477
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 4: that's it's a little scary when when you start putting

478
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 4: uh you.

479
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 3: Know if like if like Onanna and Gay go down,

480
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 3: like who's going to be in the middle of the.

481
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 4: Full and it would be like it would be they

482
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 4: would just play James Gardner in that role with like

483
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 4: du core and yeah it or moved in Jim over.

484
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 4: Luckily we don't have to worry about that yet. I

485
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 4: think the way that you two are looking at this

486
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 4: match is probably the right way to do it. I

487
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 4: think it's a decent live betting match as well. But

488
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 4: you're expecting some chaos, Anthony.

489
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 2: Well, since we're on the topic, who do you think

490
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 2: has created more expected goals this year? Everton or Arsenal?

491
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 3: Everton shut up that.

492
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 2: I mean, think about that in the context of what

493
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: we watched.

494
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 4: And they both have played bad schedules too, Like Everyton

495
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 4: has a run at Gauntlet either.

496
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 1: That's the other concerning thing here.

497
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 2: Well, I mean they're not exactly the easiest fixture of

498
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: the season on paper.

499
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: No, I'm just saying I actually actually here.

500
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 2: We have an underdog bias on this show. But I

501
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 2: think if you truly think that Everton is improved with

502
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: with what they have on the pitch this weekend, I'm

503
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 2: not talking about whole season when yes, the lack of

504
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 2: depth is a real problem, but in this match, when

505
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 2: everybody's healthy right now and knock on wood dcl'll pick

506
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 2: up a knock and training tomorrow.

507
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 3: But like do they need him though?

508
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 2: That's a good point.

509
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: I mean, he didn't.

510
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 2: I think he's still good to have. I think when

511
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 2: you want to cross like diist does, like it's effective.

512
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 2: But yes, I think I think if I have to

513
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 2: bet this, I'm laying the goal with Everton. I know

514
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 2: it sounds crazy, but like there's a huge gap between

515
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 2: them and like Fulham who just laid a goal for

516
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 2: me defensively, Everton better attack wise given the talent now

517
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 2: coming in, much better than Fulham. So if you know,

518
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 2: I was saying, like, no bet for me, because I

519
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 2: think the line's right with Fulham catch laying three quarters

520
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: of a goal. I think Everton's considerably better than Fulham

521
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 2: and did so on opening day. Like how am I

522
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 2: not now also going to lay the goal here? So

523
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: it's Everton and nothing for me for sure. And I

524
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 2: do think both team to score is a little bit

525
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 2: cheap because like Everton is still flawed defensively, but like

526
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 2: the style they're playing should leave them open. But again,

527
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 2: like Lowtontown away from home trying to score a goal,

528
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 2: it's a scary proposition given their results thus far. They

529
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,959
Speaker 2: played well against Wolves but again at home, and you know,

530
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,439
Speaker 2: I think we're starting to see the problems that Wolves

531
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 2: have come to the forefront after a hot couple of

532
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 2: games in attack. But yeah, I mean it's a good

533
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 2: Everton team right now. Enjoying Michael.

534
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're in great form, just great, great for him.

535
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 4: One one match winning streak in the Premier League, two

536
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 4: match overall.

537
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 2: Win at Villa. I got my revenge for that Everton

538
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 2: bet we all made two weeks ago it'd be all

539
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 2: lost badly. I got my revenge today.

540
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 4: So they that was their first against Aston Villas in

541
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 4: twenty sixteen.

542
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 1: God, God, I.

543
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,719
Speaker 4: Remember man when they when uh what was the American goalies' name?

544
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 1: Brad Guzan? I believe I feel like was in goal

545
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: for for Villa the last.

546
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 2: Actually think he's still in the MLS.

547
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 3: Like he's playing for Atlanta, right, He's still a goalie.

548
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: God, I think I.

549
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 3: Saw something the other day, like because you know MESSI

550
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 3: played Atlanta and he did like quotes to like, did

551
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 3: I just see Brad Guzan in a soccer Man twenty three?

552
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: J Eddie think for you here the hatter.

553
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, minus one o five. It's it's really cheap. I

554
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 3: you know, I keep rewatching all the Newtontown matches just

555
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 3: because I feel like I know nothing about them like

556
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,919
Speaker 3: every single time I watch, but like I've been encouraged

557
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 3: by when they've had to play these middle of the

558
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 3: table type teams. I mean, they've created over one expected

559
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 3: goal in all three of their matches against west Ham,

560
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 3: Fulham and Wolves. Now granted they did we're up a

561
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 3: red card for a lot of time against Wolves at home.

562
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 3: But what Loutontown is very clear what they're trying to

563
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 3: do is they are trying to get the ball out

564
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 3: wide and swinging crosses like that's basically the only way

565
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 3: they've created chances. But they have completed the second most

566
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 3: crosses per ninety of anybody in the Premier League and

567
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 3: that is something that Everton has struggled with early on

568
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: in the season, defending in wide areas. And for me,

569
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 3: this is really a game state bet because these two teams,

570
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,959
Speaker 3: what do they actually want to do? You know, Loutontown

571
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: does want to press high, they want to try to

572
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 3: cause chaos, but they know they can't because they are

573
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 3: very very open defensively if they try to do that.

574
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 3: So they that's why they've been sitting so deep in

575
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 3: these low blocks. Everton, obviously, Sean Ditsch wants them to

576
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 3: press high. So whoever, once that first goal goes in,

577
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 3: either team is going to try to press high, which

578
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 3: is going to create a lot of open space, a

579
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,719
Speaker 3: lot of transitional moments either way. Lowtontown obviously hasn't been

580
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 3: good defensively. They're the centerpiece of their defense. I mean,

581
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 3: I don't know if you Tom Locklear. I mean, I

582
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 3: don't know if he's a great defender, but he's been

583
00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: in the middle of their defense for a long time.

584
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 3: He's question able to play in this match, so.

585
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 2: I mean that's not usually better.

586
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Lutontown did just lose to Exeter City and

587
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,880
Speaker 3: the EFL Cup. All they did re rotate a lot

588
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 3: of guys in that match, so yeah, yeahs is like

589
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 3: five Everton's short over and expected goal in every single

590
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 3: match this season. So it's just too cheap at minus

591
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 3: one five.

592
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 4: For me United and Pallas playing for the second time

593
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,640
Speaker 4: in five days. Uh, the Red Devils their back baby.

594
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 4: They EQ went out against Burnley, they beat Palace in

595
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 4: the EFL Cup and look out there minus one seventy

596
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 4: five at home, Palace plus four fifty and the draw

597
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 4: is plus three twenty. I bet On United against Byron

598
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 4: and I thought that that was the right thing to do.

599
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 4: But when you you basically flip the line and you

600
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 4: have United as a team laying this kind of would

601
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 4: against a solid team, a team that also doesn't profile

602
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 4: well is the team you want to bet against. With

603
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 4: Manchester United, I'm gonna take that and run with it

604
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 4: every time. So man, it's good to have Roy Hodgson

605
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 4: back in my pocket. I feel really good about this one.

606
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 4: At its high as five to one on the money

607
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 4: line i've seen, so I'm on Palace Anthony.

608
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: I thought it was really interesting because you know, they

609
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 2: put up the lineups for the game on what on Tuesday,

610
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 2: and Palace rotated everybody. United played like four starters. It

611
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 2: was not a real game, but I was curious. I

612
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 2: was like, well, if you know it does beat the

613
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 2: hell out of them, which I think they might, will

614
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 2: the market move towards United at all? Not one dime,

615
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 2: like nothing.

616
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 3: I'm just kind of shocking considering that was like unit,

617
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 3: it's probably their best performance so far this so far.

618
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 4: Again, like the Palace back looked good when he's playing

619
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 4: against Palace's B squad.

620
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. Yeah, And so from on one hand, you

621
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 2: can say, well, what did we learn about United in

622
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: that match? Well, they got a little healthier sort of.

623
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 2: Am Rabat made his debut, Mount was back and uh

624
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 2: I tweeted this during the game, and I think this

625
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 2: is true. Like with United playing I'm Robot and Mount

626
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: that is probably their best midfield. With Casamiro and Fernandez

627
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 2: in the mix too, I think that's their best three.

628
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 2: And then play Fernandez out wide because they don't have

629
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 2: Antony right now and he might be bad anyway, and

630
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 2: then Rashford and Hoyland, like that's probably their best six.

631
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: I don't know that Teda Hagg will do that on Saturday. Also, defensively,

632
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 2: they're still a mess with injuries. They have Varan back.

633
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,719
Speaker 2: He also came back in the team, but again it

634
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: was like a makeshift back line. Luke Shaw remains out,

635
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 2: you know, Wan Basaka is still out, so like there

636
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 2: are real Martinez still out, So there are real like

637
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 2: red flags here. The performance against Burnley was not good.

638
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 2: They were outplayed for large truts to that match. Bruno

639
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: had a nice moment of class to win it. But

640
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 2: like if you had Burnley puzzle half, you're on the

641
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 2: right side there and now it's like, okay, what is

642
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 2: United as currently constructed, because I think we're going to

643
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 2: get to a point where United is going to become

644
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 2: a bet on, but again, we're still not there yet.

645
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 2: You know, I didn't quite feel with Byron because the injuries.

646
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 2: They're starting to get there. I'm waiting for the right spot.

647
00:30:58,080 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 2: This is still a spot to play against because I

648
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 2: don't trust the defense enough. So Rashford has been poor

649
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 2: to start the season. I think that's gone under discussed,

650
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 2: like how much, how incredibly good he was last year

651
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 2: carrying this team. The fact that he hasn't been as

652
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 2: good this year and how much they now have kind

653
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 2: of just been a mediocre attack is a concern. And

654
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 2: so you know, we'll talk more about Mountain Aberbat as

655
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 2: we get into more matches and I get to see

656
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 2: this work a little bit. But I'm encouraged by that

657
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: long term, but in short term, I'm still out on United.

658
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 2: And so yep with the Eagles plus one for me

659
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 2: Palace we bet them. Last week is a favorite, just classic,

660
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: just nothing. Nothing happened in the game point three x

661
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 2: G against two point six to four. They had one

662
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 2: chance the whole match, like come on, yeah, and it

663
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 2: was our fault we laid one ten with Pals. But yeah,

664
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: I'm still believing, I thought as they played vollume of

665
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 2: though they got nothing out of it. So I'm gonna

666
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 2: go with the Eagles catching a goal on the road

667
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: in the rematch.

668
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: BJ three for three here.

669
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 3: No, I'm passing the Palace performance last week. No ed

670
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 3: Ward for them in this one makes it a little

671
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 3: bit troublesome for me of how they're going to break

672
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 3: down United. And I think Amrabat coming into the lineup

673
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 3: really is a game changer for United, not just because

674
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 3: he's a good ball stopper in the middle pitch, because

675
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 3: he has a lot of versatility where he can play

676
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 3: anywhere on the pitch. So for me, it's a it's

677
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 3: a pass. I have United at minus one forty eight here,

678
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 3: so not much of a projection edge for me. So

679
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 3: I mean, we get to power, we're not gonna get there.

680
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: But if it gets Palace plus one and a half,

681
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 3: then we'll start out a conversation. But we're not gonna

682
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 3: get there.

683
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: The United the best we've seen of United in the

684
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 2: last four years, which was when Paul Pogba was fit

685
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 2: and good in the midfield and Paul Pogba had elite

686
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,239
Speaker 2: passing range and elite dribbling ability. If you combine I'm

687
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 2: robat elite passing range and Mason Mount very good dribbler,

688
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 2: you kind of have one Pagba from two players. I

689
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: think that is what they've missed and do not have

690
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: and have not had. Fernandez is different kind of player,

691
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 2: So I think that's the that's the missing link, and

692
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 2: you know, does it work. We're gonna find out. So

693
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 2: I'm intrigued.

694
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: Newcastle is still scoring, so.

695
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh my god, oh man.

696
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 3: Was that your worst better of the season, Anthony? It

697
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 3: has to be right, yep?

698
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 2: I think I got CLV so with the merchant. I

699
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,959
Speaker 2: woke up, I watched the all four matches. I was

700
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 2: I was driving to uh to meet friends for football,

701
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 2: and so I was like, okay, I'm gonna miss Newcastle Sheffield,

702
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 2: No big deal, probably nothing will happen. Twenty minutes in

703
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 2: I checked the score of zero zero. I'm like, oh yeah,

704
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 2: great call by me under two and under three and

705
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 2: closed under two and a half.

706
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: Great job.

707
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 2: Check my phone again when I got to the bar

708
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 2: three now, so it was halftime, so that was rough,

709
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 2: but I mean they're still good. I didn't think they

710
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 2: had that in them. I have to apologize I wasn't

711
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 2: familiar with their game with that's showing you're.

712
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 3: Seeing who love schedule adjusted at x G from a

713
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 3: certain individual.

714
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 2: They were, they were second in the schedule. H I

715
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: should have read that well. I did say like, hey,

716
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 2: we got to be a little less harsh on Newcastle

717
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 2: because they played they're gonna be fine. I didn't think

718
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 2: fine would mean score eight. I thought it would mean

719
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: conced zero. So I got that part right now. The

720
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 2: eight was certainly a.

721
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 3: Great advertisement for both teams to score now, great.

722
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 2: Advertisement, honestly. And I don't I have one bet in

723
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 2: this week. I don't know if you saw my bet

724
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 2: today that I put in BJ. But I did bet

725
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,280
Speaker 2: in a match this weekend that we're gonna talk about. Okay,

726
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 2: it's not this one though, so I'm passing.

727
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 3: Oh, I'm intrigued.

728
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 4: Newcastle was the biggest favorite on the three way line

729
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 4: of the weekend minus three thirty four, hosting Burnley, who

730
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 4: are nine to one on the money line. In the

731
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 4: draw it's four to one. Whatever, we can you know

732
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 4: what the analysis here is here like miles between these

733
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 4: two teams. But I will say that Burnley was fine

734
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 4: against United. Yep, like times, it's totally fine. That was

735
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,320
Speaker 4: probably their best game of the season, outside of the

736
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 4: fifteen minute stretch where they almost scored against City after

737
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 4: going down one nil in the season opener, which feels like.

738
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 1: It was two years ago.

739
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 4: Anyways, I got nothing here, BJ, You're gonna.

740
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, I think I think Burnley's best stretch

741
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 3: of the season was they were already down two goals

742
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 3: to aston Villa at home. They have like a really

743
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 3: like good, like twenty five to thirty minute surge and

744
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 3: then of course they can see it again and it

745
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 3: was like over and that was it. I think that

746
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 3: was their best.

747
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 2: But here, I don't know, BJ. Did you see how

748
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 2: good Sheffield looked after they were down eight Nils on Sunday?

749
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 2: They played They played really well last I was talking

750
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 2: about really well those last five.

751
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 3: The best performance was against Everton, clearly, I mean, but no,

752
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 3: I you know, from a spot perspective, it's not great

753
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:46,320
Speaker 3: for Newcastle. I'll say that you got, as Anthony coined

754
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 3: at al Gasico coming up in the Champions League against

755
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 3: psg uh this week after you come off that eight

756
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 3: nil dropping after you just beat City one nothing in

757
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 3: thefl Cup. Now you have this kind of sandwich match

758
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 3: against burn But it's a really really good tactical match

759
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:07,240
Speaker 3: for Newcastle because Burnley, it's very clear and the announcers

760
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,959
Speaker 3: we're saying it. Against United it's like, Okay, they're still

761
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 3: going to try to build out of the back. It

762
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 3: really hasn't worked, but they're just gonna continue to it

763
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 3: because they feel like they this is the way they

764
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 3: should play and it's just really not working against teams

765
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 3: that can actually press you high. United even though they're

766
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 3: not a good pressing team, even though they sat off

767
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 3: quite a bit in that match, they still forced fourteen

768
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 3: high turnovers. Like Burnley, cannot build out of the back

769
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 3: against these teams that can actually press. And what do

770
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 3: we know about Newcastle They're like one of the best

771
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 3: pressing teams on the entire planet. And what's really big

772
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 3: for them as well as Joe Linton's been injured for

773
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 3: a stretch this season, he came back and was in

774
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 3: the lineup against City today. He's probably their best pressing

775
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 3: forward that they have, and he's so good at setting

776
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 3: those traps and really winning the ball off of people.

777
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 3: So if Burley's going to try to play out of

778
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 3: the back, especially on the road at Saint James Park.

779
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 3: I mean, this thing could get out of hand very

780
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 3: quickly in Newcastle. I mean Sheffield United was the first

781
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 3: team that I think we would consider a bottom half

782
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 3: of the table side they've played yet this season, and

783
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,399
Speaker 3: you know, obviously they ripped them apart. But going back

784
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 3: to the start of last season, Newcastle against bottom half

785
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 3: the table teams has a plus one point two to

786
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 3: expect a goal differential per night. They absolutely beat up

787
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 3: on the dregs of the Premier League. So this is

788
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 3: another situation, especially being at home. I know the spot

789
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 3: isn't good and I'm not gonna lay them here. I'm

790
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 3: going to parlay them with the other big favorite on

791
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 3: the board here who also is not a great position.

792
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 3: And we'll talk about City Net or next Yeah, we'll

793
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:33,240
Speaker 3: talk about.

794
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 1: Let's talk about it right now.

795
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 2: Let's talk about El Gassy Cone. I did not coin that.

796
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 2: That's Eli Courtney. Friend of the pod texted me that

797
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 2: in our soccer chat. I got to give him credit.

798
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 2: I know he's a listener. He texted that as soon

799
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 2: as they announced Chamions League Group's Newcastle PSG. We're gonna

800
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 2: talk about that on this on Monday's episode because they're

801
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 2: going to play the Champions League El Gassy Coom.

802
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: That's a good.

803
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 4: One Wolves and City now BJ Wolves are seven to

804
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 4: one at home. City minus three hundred to draw is

805
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 4: plus four fifty.

806
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: I feel like you've been high a Wolf.

807
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 4: So I'm like, I Meanry O'Neil is your guy, Gary

808
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 4: O'Neal is guy.

809
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 3: Well, it's like it's perspective right from like where Wolves

810
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 3: was to like where they are now. Like Gary O'Neill

811
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 3: is actually instilled life into the squad and belief and everything.

812
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: When they were kind of like coming in the season,

813
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 3: I mean we were already like booking their trip to

814
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 3: the Championship for next season. And now I mean they

815
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 3: still have Listen, they've they've been better offensively, but like

816
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 3: Wolves is still trying to build out of the back,

817
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 3: Like they're still trying to do that kind of style

818
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 3: and against City that's not really gonna work. And honestly,

819
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 3: I think the price on City with it being such

820
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 3: a terrible spot for them, you know, this Sandwich match

821
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,399
Speaker 3: after losing to Newcast on thefl Cup and then having

822
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 3: to having a trip to RB Leipzig in the Champions League,

823
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 3: which we'll obviously talk about. That'll be a nice uh,

824
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 3: that'll be a fun one to lose this week. But anyway,

825
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 3: you know City is obviously going through a lot of

826
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 3: injuries right now, and you know Rogery is going to

827
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 3: miss this match dude to suspension, and he's off huge

828
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 3: to their team. But what City did this summer by

829
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:07,359
Speaker 3: bringing in guys like Doku, Nunas and Goovacic gives them

830
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 3: that depth that a loss of Rogery, especially against a

831
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 3: team like Wolves, now you know when we play, when

832
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 3: they play Arsenal, it'll be a much different story. But

833
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 3: that loss really isn't as big. And you know they

834
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 3: rested Holland against uh Newcastle on in the EFL Cup,

835
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 3: So especially losing that match against Newcastle, I think you'll

836
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,919
Speaker 3: see a little bit of a hungrier man City team,

837
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 3: like if they went to Saint Jan's Park and just

838
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 3: kind of routed them. I think it's kind of just

839
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 3: been like status quo. But like City, just like outside

840
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 3: of obviously today, they just like keep on winning against

841
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 3: the dregs of the Premier League. And this is another

842
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 3: situation where I don't think Wolves is gonna be able

843
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 3: to really play out of the back, and Wolves isn't

844
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 3: very good sitting in a defensive block. So and you

845
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 3: kind of saw that against Liverpool where they were good

846
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 3: for like thirty forty minute stretch to start, and then

847
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 3: when a couple mistakes happened, Really elite teams can rip

848
00:39:56,480 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 3: you apart. So Liverpool welcome Newcastle City Parlan. Liverpool played

849
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 3: like minus one twenty five. What's that?

850
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 2: Liverpool played like shit for like forty minutes and then

851
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 2: they started playing there.

852
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 3: That's what I just said, like they played good like

853
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 3: Wolves played good for forty minute stretch and then.

854
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 2: No, no, I don't even think they played that good.

855
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: I just think Liverpool played bad. That's the thing.

856
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 3: That's the traditional opportunities, Anthony.

857
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 2: I rewatched the first half because I woke I bet

858
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 2: the team total over, woke up, saw I was a

859
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,359
Speaker 2: winner and said I'm going back to bed, and woke

860
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 2: up at halftime. Rewatched the first half because I was like,

861
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 2: what the hell happened here? And yeah, I just thought

862
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 2: Liverpool's I mean, my boy even said it himself.

863
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, so minus one twenty five city Newcastle Parlay.

864
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 1: That's beautiful.

865
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 3: I know, if you're a real sick, if you're a

866
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 3: real cicle. The squarest thing I think I've done so far, Yeah.

867
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 4: Just say, I think in the three years of this

868
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 4: podcast is probably that's probably this.

869
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 3: Is definitely the squarest thing I've ever done. But that's okay,

870
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 3: that's okay, got to do it?

871
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 1: What want everybody?

872
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 3: I think this is a spot to do it?

873
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 1: Or you could do what Anthony's about to do. Yeah,

874
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: if you're a.

875
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 2: Real sick, oh, you bet the Wolves first half team

876
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 2: total over that's been That's been the bet that I've

877
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 2: been kind of having fun with these under dogs lately,

878
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 2: going against Barsa, going against Real Madrid and losing, going

879
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 2: against Liverpool, even betting Wolves to do it. I think

880
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 2: it at home, sitting without Rodriy, Yes they have the

881
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 2: depth to cover for it, but we don't know what

882
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 2: that looks like because he has really barely missed any

883
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 2: games over the last year, and so, like Pep could

884
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 2: come out extremely conservative and never let Wolves have the

885
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 2: ball and we lose. But if there's any cracks, you know,

886
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 2: Wolves can maybe exploit it and you can throw a

887
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 2: dart on it. But for me, this is probably gonna.

888
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 4: Be a pass west Ham and Sheffield United coming and

889
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 4: licking their wounds. The Hammers minus two hundred hosting the

890
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 4: Blades plus five fifty and the Drus.

891
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 2: We gotta do it, we gotta do it.

892
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're real sick.

893
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: I think you have to.

894
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 1: I have to bet Sheffield United this we do. Yeah,

895
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 1: we talked. You just talked about Palace.

896
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 4: Like laying minus one ten with Palace, laying minus two

897
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 4: hundred with west Ham is insane.

898
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 3: Nuts, It's nuts.

899
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:00,120
Speaker 4: If they're a team that could just show up and

900
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,240
Speaker 4: not look like they're going to score for six hours

901
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 4: at times.

902
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 1: And then of course there.

903
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 4: Can be a team that will pull one over on

904
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 4: City or Liverpool or Spurs or someone like that. But

905
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 4: they're David Moys's team. You just don't want to bet

906
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 4: at David Moys's team. I don't care if they're playing

907
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,879
Speaker 4: Scunthorpe like minus two hundred is they won one nil

908
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 4: today against Lincoln City in EFL Cup, right, like yeah

909
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 4: that you just can't trust them to get the separation

910
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:29,840
Speaker 4: needed against another Premier League team. I'm gonna be on

911
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 4: the Sheffield United money line. It's just gonna be an

912
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 4: absolute trash bet.

913
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think I think I'm gonna take the

914
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 2: blades here. I know they I bet. I sort of

915
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 2: bet on them, bet on their defense last week and

916
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 2: got embarrassed, and I will do that again at some

917
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 2: point the season. But I pulled up the data just

918
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,240
Speaker 2: the last few teams that have lost by ridiculous margins,

919
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 2: how they do the next week, because there has to

920
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 2: be some kind of response. These are professional athletes, professional

921
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 2: players early in the season, so it's not we're cooked.

922
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: There's no bounce back, dead cat, no bounce this is

923
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 2: you know. So last year famously Bournemouth lost nine nil

924
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 2: to Liverpool. What happened the next match? All three of

925
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 2: us bet them against Bournemouth should be against Wolves plus

926
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 2: a half at home. I think Michael probably took the

927
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 2: money line ended nil nil and they covered and conceded

928
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 2: about one expected goal. Played well defensively. Wolves missed a

929
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,839
Speaker 2: couple of chances, but it was a relatively even match. Southampton,

930
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 2: they've had a couple famous ones under Hassenhudle. They had

931
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 2: the nine nail defeat to Man United. They followed that

932
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 2: up with a two to one loss to Man City

933
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 2: and the nine nail defeat the year prior became a

934
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 2: running bit. They followed up conceding zero point seven XG

935
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 2: and a two to one loss to Newcastle So and

936
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 2: they had goalkeeper problems. Remember those teams were really rough there.

937
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 2: So we've seen some type of response and it goes

938
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 2: in other leagues too. You can even look at uh,

939
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:00,959
Speaker 2: you know other leagues where teams pounded in the first

940
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 2: half or pound that. You know, glad Bock made some

941
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,800
Speaker 2: real changes defensively and we was able to defend Leipzig

942
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 2: better last weekend. Like teams don't just get pounded over

943
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 2: and over and over again without a response. And this

944
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 2: Sheffield has shown some competent level of defending. And I

945
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 2: don't think west Ham's been a good defense at all.

946
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 2: I think that's been underrated discussion point that they've been

947
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 2: pretty bad defensively, and so I think they're vulnerable. I'm

948
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: gonna take the blades.

949
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 1: BJ come on, that's part of no.

950
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 3: I'm definitely gonna be on them because you know, it's

951
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 3: it's a different situation here for west Ham, who honestly,

952
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 3: I don't I mean they've played a lot of the

953
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 3: top tier teams in the Premier League where they've been

954
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 3: the ones sitting in low blocks and being very transitional

955
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 3: and when they have to be the ones with the

956
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,719
Speaker 3: owners to put a lot of possession together and to

957
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 3: create all these chances. It's a very weird, difficult situation.

958
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 3: West Ham has been playing a lot of soccer lately

959
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 3: because of their Europa League duties as well. I mean

960
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,959
Speaker 3: this is what five matches in about twelve days for them,

961
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 3: like they have to be get you know, they haven't really.

962
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 3: David mois Is is kind of rotated, but also not

963
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,800
Speaker 3: really like a lot of the regular starters played today

964
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 3: against Lincoln City. So yeah, I mean from a price point,

965
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 3: you know standpoint, I am showing value on Sheffield United,

966
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 3: so you know I only have west Ham at minus

967
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,279
Speaker 3: one forty two. So like the market, clearly it's just

968
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 3: overreacted to one bad loss. And I mean yeah, like

969
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,880
Speaker 3: west Ham was not good against Liverpool or City, like

970
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 3: they conceived well over three expected goals against both of

971
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 3: those teams. So yeah, it's I'll be on Cheffield United.

972
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:34,879
Speaker 3: It's a real sick oh bet, but it's it's one

973
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,239
Speaker 3: you have to do if you're if you're in this game.

974
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 4: I think if if you've been betting long enough. And

975
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 4: if you've bet been betting, and not just soccer, but

976
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 4: like if you are someone who bets regularly and you're

977
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 4: there's a pretty good chance that your first thought when

978
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 4: you saw that score line last weekend was Jesus Christ,

979
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 4: I'm gonna have to bet Sheffield United next weekend because

980
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 4: you just know that the the mark is gonna react

981
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 4: to it.

982
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how you know you're a true one to

983
00:45:58,560 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 2: go listener.

984
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, all right, Well that'll be fun. And Brentford next.

985
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 4: This one is pretty much pick them with Forrest at

986
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 4: home slight slight home underdog plus one seventy five on

987
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 4: the freeway line, Brentford plus one seventy the draw plus

988
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 4: two ten. I've got nothing here for me. It was

989
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:21,800
Speaker 4: the easiest pass on the board, Anthony.

990
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 2: I mean, is there a team I'm ever more wrong

991
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 2: on than Forrest. Every time I think that they might

992
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 2: be good, they're bad. Every time I think they're bad,

993
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 2: they're good. I can't get a read on them. It's

994
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 2: been like two years now. Steve Cooper is bad, but

995
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 2: the team is okay.

996
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:34,720
Speaker 1: That's what I said.

997
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:36,839
Speaker 4: About Ange, and I was right about and and now

998
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 4: you said I never.

999
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 3: Together a couple of results here.

1000
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 2: BJJ has been calling me out for my waffling, so

1001
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,240
Speaker 2: I'm trying to be better with my my stern takes.

1002
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 2: I was never freaking takes man, I was never anti

1003
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,840
Speaker 2: a neutral.

1004
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 4: You were crushed when they never bring out bring back

1005
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 4: coach a Tina.

1006
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 2: Well, yeah I did want him. Look at the job

1007
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 2: he's done at Chelsea. He's got them creating actually left

1008
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 2: and right.

1009
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 3: Yeah. One thing I will say about Brentford though, is

1010
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 3: they are dealing with a lot of injuries. Like we

1011
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 3: mentioned off the top there, like no Rico, Henry ben Me,

1012
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 3: Kevin Shade and obviously Ivan Tony's been out for a

1013
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 3: while here. But like, I think there is a world

1014
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 3: where because it looks like you know, especially you know

1015
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 3: someone like Henry has been out for is going to

1016
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 3: be out pretty much the entire season, there is a

1017
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 3: world where hopefully, you know, Brentford's going to be kind

1018
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 3: of a like wait and see type of team for

1019
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 3: a while here because the market has just kind of

1020
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:33,279
Speaker 3: gotten drunk and fell in love with them, where they

1021
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 3: may get downgraded after a couple of bad results here

1022
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 3: because of all these injuries, and we may be able

1023
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 3: to get better prices on them as we get deeper

1024
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 3: in the season. So if you're somebody who wants to

1025
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:45,760
Speaker 3: bet on our bes, just tanglo for a couple of weeks.

1026
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,839
Speaker 3: We might go through some bad results. We'll be back

1027
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 3: and hopefully the market will give us good prices.

1028
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 2: Don't We have United next week? Yeah, I'm wearing our

1029
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 2: jersey today to inspire some better.

1030
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, we get from us. I mean we have about

1031
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 3: that one. But you know, hopefully the market will stop

1032
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 3: being drunk with love for Brentford and we can get

1033
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 3: some some decent prices on them.

1034
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 4: And it's a weird situation because it's the only match

1035
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 4: on Sunday. Yeah, so as people are looking to load

1036
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 4: up on NFL like and they're perusing Premier League matches

1037
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:17,320
Speaker 4: to bet.

1038
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 2: Don't don't worry, Michael. NFL starts nine to thirty am

1039
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 2: Eastern this week. We got you London game God right

1040
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 2: down the road in North London.

1041
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:25,800
Speaker 3: Is that why they're only playing one Sunday?

1042
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 1: Matt?

1043
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 2: Really?

1044
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 1: Why?

1045
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 2: I bet it's a factor, although I it's just mostly

1046
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 2: a non European week I think, and next week.

1047
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:36,760
Speaker 4: Is anyways, Fulham and Chelsea are Monday Night football Fulham's

1048
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:37,959
Speaker 4: plus two fifty at home.

1049
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 1: Chelsea makes a trip across London plus one five the

1050
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 1: drugs plus to do fifty. I like Chelsea here. This

1051
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:45,839
Speaker 1: has got to be the Spotye.

1052
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 3: I did, Michael, I did when I did, when I

1053
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 3: wrote down everything, and I don't think I do anymore. Okay,

1054
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: I'll be flat honest. I think that who's going to score?

1055
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 3: That's my point. If you go after Aston Villa match,

1056
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 3: they don't have anybody who can score, like that's Nicol Jackson.

1057
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,760
Speaker 2: Jackson can score. He's good, but he's out, he suspended.

1058
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 3: He's not a true striker, Anthony. He never was, coming

1059
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 3: to debate. He was playing on the left for Via

1060
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 3: Reale and that was his first season and in one

1061
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 3: of Europe's top five leagues. Like he wasn't playing as

1062
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 3: a true striker for them, So throwing him into a

1063
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 3: situation where he wasn't really meant to play there. I

1064
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 3: think is is bad on Chelsea's part because they've spent

1065
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 3: a billion dollars in three transfer windows and none of

1066
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 3: that money has been spent on a striker and they

1067
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 3: have one. But he's on loan at Roma and scoring

1068
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:30,319
Speaker 3: a bunch of goals right now.

1069
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 2: So you said that preseason, Keith Lukaku.

1070
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 3: Nope, yeah and so and here's the real problem is,

1071
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 3: like you know, a lot of the data will tell

1072
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,840
Speaker 3: you that Chelsea is a lot of the ball progression numbers,

1073
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:42,799
Speaker 3: expect to threat. All this stuff is saying like, hey,

1074
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 3: they're in around the box, like they're creating all these

1075
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 3: chances they can't score, but they don't have a finisher.

1076
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 3: Like it's a different story if we have a team

1077
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 3: who has like a proven striker and they just go

1078
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 3: through a slump. But we now we have a team

1079
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 3: who for now two years now hasn't had a true

1080
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 3: striker on their roster who can actually finish in front

1081
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 3: of net. I mean, who they're gonna play up top?

1082
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 3: Is it gonna be Rhyan Sterling? Like, I'm not really

1083
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 3: sure who's actually gonna play up top for them in

1084
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 3: this match, and they're gonna have to play which Anthony

1085
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 3: I know has has has mentioned a couple of times,

1086
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 3: but an improved Fulham defense. Like I know that they

1087
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 3: overperformed a ton last season, but they've been better this

1088
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 3: season like than they have been throughout all of that game.

1089
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:24,760
Speaker 4: They've had a couple of the mess originally, but.

1090
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 3: They gave up six seven shots to City, they held

1091
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 3: Palace to point three xt at home, Like those are

1092
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 3: those are kind of yeah. I think he's still yeah,

1093
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 3: but like they get I get the concerns. It's just right, well,

1094
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 3: they get they gat too much. That looks so it

1095
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 3: looks so disjointed once they get the spall like the

1096
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 3: then they try to send it across like like every

1097
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:49,759
Speaker 3: every cross gets blocked for a corner or it's just

1098
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 3: doesn't find guy on the end of it, Like it's

1099
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 3: just and really, what it comes down to for me is,

1100
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 3: you know, Chelsea and somebody mentioned this on Twitter, and

1101
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 3: I thought it was a great point that Chelsea's buzzword

1102
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 3: that they all always use this project like we're really

1103
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 3: excited about this product. This is a long term project.

1104
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 3: Really what it is is it's an experiment. Like what

1105
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 3: they are trying to do is just buy up the

1106
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:15,760
Speaker 3: best available potential that's on the market rather than somebody

1107
00:51:15,760 --> 00:51:18,799
Speaker 3: who actually fits what they're doing with their system. Like

1108
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:20,919
Speaker 3: Enzo Fernandez is playing as a ten right now. He's

1109
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:22,879
Speaker 3: not a ten, he's a six or an eight, And

1110
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 3: I don't know, it's.

1111
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 2: He got a shot for me the other day that

1112
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:27,760
Speaker 2: says he's t that's awesome.

1113
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:30,800
Speaker 3: He's not. He's not oda guard. He's not James Madison,

1114
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 3: like that's not his role. You know, you obviously know.

1115
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 3: And they're not gonna have a right back for this

1116
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 3: match because Gusto suspended and Reees James is hurt. They're

1117
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 3: playing Cole Well as a left back because Pochino doesn't

1118
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 3: trust Chilwell as a defensive option. Like, there's so many

1119
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 3: square pegs in round holes with this Chelsea squad right

1120
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 3: now that they still are trying to figure out. So

1121
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 3: my numbers aren't telling me to play this, but I'm

1122
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:53,399
Speaker 3: taking under two and a half goals at minus one ten.

1123
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 3: You know, I don't know how Fulham really scores here.

1124
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,600
Speaker 3: They don't really have many scoring options going forward, and

1125
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 3: Chelsea's been okay a defensively, but I don't know how

1126
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:05,319
Speaker 3: Chelsea is going to consistently score goals, especially in this match.

1127
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:07,080
Speaker 3: So under two and a half for me.

1128
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 2: I've been so afraid to bet a Chelsea under just

1129
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 2: like whatnot.

1130
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 3: It's gonna happen. I know they're gonna score.

1131
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, those foor three goals happen four shots, but I agree.

1132
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:19,800
Speaker 2: I like both teams to score No. Here plus one fifteen. Yes,

1133
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 2: because if if, and this could play out a couple

1134
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 2: different ways.

1135
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 1: If we're going to do the same freaking.

1136
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 2: Song and dance again, where Chelsea just you know, gets

1137
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 2: a bunch of half chances and doesn't finish any of them,

1138
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 2: doesn't really look like scoring Fulham's defense again, I think

1139
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 2: this is at an assessity. I think Marcos Silva is

1140
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 2: not an idiot. I think he can see the writing

1141
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 2: on the wall, which is, oh shit, we don't have

1142
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 2: Alexander Mitrovic anymore. We cannot be as open as we've been.

1143
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 2: We must adjust, and they have and they've been marginally better,

1144
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:47,919
Speaker 2: marginally better defensively. And also Paulini came back into the team,

1145
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 2: which certainly helps y Post not leaving to Buyer. So

1146
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:55,239
Speaker 2: trending up Fulham defense, trending up Chelsea defense, which you know,

1147
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:58,880
Speaker 2: if we're gonna pull up our handy dandy chart, Chelsea

1148
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:02,239
Speaker 2: is the third best defense by expected goals allowed in

1149
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 2: the schedule, with justin numbers, so a very good defensive

1150
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 2: side who conceded next to nothing against Villa. Really like

1151
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 2: that was a weird goal, but nothing came of it.

1152
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 2: Defended very well against Brighton in the League Cup and

1153
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:16,319
Speaker 2: that was a half rotated Brighton, but they still have

1154
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 2: a good attacking group. So I think in this matchup

1155
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:22,399
Speaker 2: I like under two and a half, but I also

1156
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 2: like both teams to score no because I think that

1157
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 2: Fulham gets blanked here. I think you could you could

1158
00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 2: look at a Fulham team total under. I think that

1159
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 2: you just bet against things happening here, and if Chelsea

1160
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 2: does have the explosion and wins this three nil, at

1161
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 2: least I'll have that BTTs no to fall back on

1162
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:39,359
Speaker 2: because I style for not betting Chelsea here. If they

1163
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 2: had Jackson, I would bet the plus one oh five,

1164
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 2: but they don't, so I'm.

1165
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 1: Not Brosia Brosia time.

1166
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 4: Why not if I mean if eleven to one on

1167
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 4: on nil nil exact score.

1168
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:52,280
Speaker 2: So if you want to lean into the bit.

1169
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.

1170
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 4: Nothing for us in La Liga, but Bundesliga Leipzig time

1171
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:00,800
Speaker 4: yuking on by Anthony.

1172
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'll tell you what. It does not get

1173
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:06,320
Speaker 2: much more difficult than the week Leipsig is about to encounter.

1174
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:09,399
Speaker 2: So we're about to find out just how good they

1175
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,759
Speaker 2: are because they have I don't. We're gonna talk about

1176
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 2: them now. We're talk about them on Monday Show. They

1177
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 2: host Bayern Munich on Saturday in the top Spiel and

1178
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:22,560
Speaker 2: then they host Manchester City in the Champions League. I

1179
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 2: don't even know. I think it's Wednesday. So it's gonna

1180
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:31,040
Speaker 2: be fun. Huh. Rolling, parlay, rolling, parlay, money line parlay,

1181
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 2: open it up, close it. You can bet them now

1182
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 2: if you want, what is the BJ what is the

1183
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:35,919
Speaker 2: money line?

1184
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:36,320
Speaker 3: Parlay?

1185
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:39,879
Speaker 2: Leipzig to beat both teams, they got to be. Keep talking,

1186
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 2: they'll figure out they got to be at least twenty

1187
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 2: to one.

1188
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 3: Keep talking. I'll figure it out while you're talking.

1189
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 2: We'll have a discussion about that. So look, I just

1190
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 2: think the market's a a little short on Leipsig in

1191
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 2: both matches, and so I bet them in both matches

1192
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 2: against Bayern Munich and against City. And do I have

1193
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 2: an underdog bias, of course, But look, Leipzig's numbers are

1194
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 2: a little bit depressed in terms of just like XG

1195
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:02,960
Speaker 2: data early season. If you pull up the table, when

1196
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 2: you look at it, you're like, okay, yeah, Byron's number one.

1197
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:08,839
Speaker 2: Lavrakusin with Bondie Fast is number two. Dortman is number three.

1198
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 2: Leipsig is down there at like fifth six. But they've

1199
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 2: had multiple games where they've gone up a shit ton

1200
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:16,280
Speaker 2: of goals and then kind of just sat off Osberg Stuttgart.

1201
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 2: There's a couple of games where that's happened. So I

1202
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 2: still think this is a very good team. They showed

1203
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 2: that and they're attacking. Versatility is the key here against Byron.

1204
00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 2: They can attack Byron in multiple different ways, which I

1205
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:28,080
Speaker 2: think is the big key here. You know, Byron has

1206
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:30,840
Speaker 2: tried to fix their build up problems by getting Limer

1207
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 2: in the midfield. He's a good ball winner, but like

1208
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:35,520
Speaker 2: they're not. Like something is still wrong and Byron's build

1209
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 2: up they out talent so many different teams it doesn't matter.

1210
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 2: But you can still see the holes. And you saw

1211
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 2: it against Labrakusen and I think you're gonna see it

1212
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 2: in this spot on the road against Leipzig as well.

1213
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:47,280
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take the plus a half. I think

1214
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,799
Speaker 2: that Byron should actually be plus money here and they're not,

1215
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take the Red Bulls to get a.

1216
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:54,440
Speaker 3: Result fifteen to one, fifteen to one.

1217
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 2: Yes, I think it's fun. That is so short holy yeah,

1218
00:55:57,040 --> 00:55:57,319
Speaker 2: I know.

1219
00:55:57,280 --> 00:56:00,880
Speaker 1: It, but it's still I mean, it's still like you

1220
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 1: know what.

1221
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 3: I tried at one book to parlay it and they

1222
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:05,800
Speaker 3: said I couldn't use those two selections together, which I

1223
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 3: thought was weird. But then I went to the Great

1224
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 3: Beth Correlated Yeah, and I went to bet three six

1225
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:12,920
Speaker 3: five and they allow it. So there you go.

1226
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:14,720
Speaker 1: It's fun.

1227
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is. I mean, you know if I mean,

1228
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 3: if it wins on Saturday and then it's just like,

1229
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:22,279
Speaker 3: oh buddy, here we go. We'll get to that.

1230
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'll be on the Lipzig money line against Byron.

1231
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:27,880
Speaker 4: Might throw them in a little round robin as well,

1232
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:33,600
Speaker 4: cooking up something with like some college football dogs soccer dogs. Bj'

1233
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 4: you're going to back to Bach?

1234
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:37,640
Speaker 3: I am, you know, I'm apparently I'm the only one

1235
00:56:37,640 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 3: in this podcast that actually believes in them this season,

1236
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 3: and I think this is the spot to them. I

1237
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 3: really don't think they should be a road underdog to

1238
00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:50,799
Speaker 3: boake them, who is awful, Like they are so so

1239
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 3: bad and they've been bad for a long time now,

1240
00:56:53,520 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 3: and I think, you know, Bach, they had some injuries

1241
00:56:56,200 --> 00:56:58,360
Speaker 3: to begin the season, and they've also had to play

1242
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 3: a very difficult schedule comparatively to most of the Bundesliga teams.

1243
00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 3: They've already had to play Bayern, Leipzig and Leverkusen, essentially

1244
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 3: the three best teams in the Bundesliga. And we're forgetting

1245
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 3: about their great performance against Darmstadt when they drew them

1246
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:14,680
Speaker 3: three to three and they were up a man for

1247
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 3: like a half and created four expected goals. We're forgetting

1248
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 3: about were half heart heart. That's what tells me this

1249
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 3: team has heart. And also they have their best player

1250
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:28,200
Speaker 3: Kone coming back from injury. That's a huge, a huge,

1251
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 3: huge thing for them, especially because he is an unbelievable

1252
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 3: ball stopper in the middle of the pitch. And if

1253
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 3: you look at a Leipzig's metrics, even though they have

1254
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 3: played a very difficult schedule, you know, offensively their fifth

1255
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 3: and expected threat, they've completed the fourth most crosses into

1256
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 3: the opponent's penalty area, seventh and final third entries, eighth

1257
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 3: and x G. Honestly, not that bad offensive numbers when

1258
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:52,280
Speaker 3: Anthony's trying to tell us that the literally the worst

1259
00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 3: team in the Bundesliga. So I really don't think they

1260
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 3: should be roaded underdogs now, Boke, I'm coming off the

1261
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 3: seven zero loss to Byron, I was kind of surprised

1262
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 3: the market still kind of liked them in this type

1263
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 3: of situation, and honestly it may too fat a performance

1264
00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:08,800
Speaker 3: against Leipzig in the last match for back either. So

1265
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:13,200
Speaker 3: uh Bach John o' bett plus one twenty shouldn't be

1266
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:17,360
Speaker 3: a road underdog against Bochum, who was probably the what

1267
00:58:17,560 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 3: third worst team in the Bundesliga right after god Bach.

1268
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, they they kone. Coming back is big. They have

1269
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 2: had a ton of injuries and that has played into

1270
00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 2: the into the numbers, but they've also been in negative

1271
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 2: game states for a ship ton of their matches, and

1272
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 2: especially their two matches against the bad teams. Let's keep

1273
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:35,160
Speaker 2: in mind this Glodbok team was down three to one

1274
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 2: and a half to Osburg on the road and three

1275
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 2: no to Darmstad Heart and even credit them for fighting back,

1276
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 2: getting points, stealing points. It could have gone Anthony like,

1277
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:46,480
Speaker 2: if this is a pick them, I would betting Bocum.

1278
00:58:46,480 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 2: That's how that's how low I am on this Cloudbock team. Instead,

1279
00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:52,120
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pass. Uh.

1280
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1281
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 2: We were talking about this in our Monday meeting h b

1282
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 2: J nine and I was like Oh, if that's a

1283
00:58:56,640 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 2: pick them, I'm betting Bochum. Then I was like, oh,

1284
00:58:58,080 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 2: I got to lay a quarter goal, Like that's crazy.

1285
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 3: So now you're like, I gotta bet the block.

1286
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:04,520
Speaker 2: I did not say that. I wish you. I mean

1287
00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:06,720
Speaker 2: I hope we do win a match eventually.

1288
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 3: Would be nice.

1289
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:10,400
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk Siria. Uh, Anthony, what do you got?

1290
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Victor Osaman is still playing for Napolie. But

1291
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 2: let's talk about the defense, because through the early stages

1292
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 2: of the season they've conceded a ton of goals and

1293
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:22,160
Speaker 2: have dropped points in three of their matches, but their

1294
00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:25,800
Speaker 2: defense lost Kim and Jay and has not fallen at all,

1295
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 2: and in fact, they've been better through the first six

1296
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:31,120
Speaker 2: ISH matches in Syria dominated udon Essa today. It is

1297
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 2: always scary with Osaman, but I think what you could

1298
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:35,800
Speaker 2: see in the second half here if they get ahead

1299
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,520
Speaker 2: is some potential rotation because they have Real Madrid in

1300
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 2: the Champions League. It is a weird spot for them

1301
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 2: with a midweek Seria match. All the stuff that's happening

1302
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 2: behind the scenes. Lech is a very good defensive team.

1303
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,040
Speaker 2: BJ has talked about that a bunch. They have been

1304
00:59:48,080 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 2: one of the most profitable teams in all of Europe's

1305
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 2: top five leagues thus far the season, in part because

1306
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 2: their defense has been really, really good. So I think

1307
00:59:56,360 --> 00:59:57,880
Speaker 2: that it's going to be a low scoring kind of

1308
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:00,400
Speaker 2: grinded out of fair. Hopefully Osaman only play an hour

1309
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:03,320
Speaker 2: instead of ninety minutes, because that would very much appreciate

1310
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 2: that as an underbetter because he's extremely good. I like

1311
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:09,080
Speaker 2: under two and a half minus one fifteen and BJ.

1312
01:00:09,440 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 3: Probably the peer. The biggest match in Italy this weekend

1313
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:16,440
Speaker 3: ac Milan hosting Lazzio. I do like Milan minus one

1314
01:00:16,480 --> 01:00:20,400
Speaker 3: twenty five. Milan rotated a lot of guys today against Kacliari.

1315
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 3: They sat, they sat Leo, they sat Jerude and they

1316
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 3: end up winning three to one in a pretty impressive performance.

1317
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 3: And this Lazzio team, they got their second win of

1318
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 3: the season against to Reno today, but they've been playing

1319
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:38,560
Speaker 3: full lineups now for going on pretty much the entire season.

1320
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 3: There has to be a lot of tired legs in

1321
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:42,960
Speaker 3: that Lazzio side. And obviously this is just a simple

1322
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:44,960
Speaker 3: projection edge for me, where I have Milan as a

1323
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 3: minus one forty six favorite. A Lozzo team has obviously overperformed,

1324
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:50,480
Speaker 3: and it's starting to see some of that negative aggression

1325
01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 3: come to fruition this season really only convincingly outside of

1326
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:56,360
Speaker 3: the game against Toerino today has won the expected goals

1327
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 3: battle convincingly in just one match, and as against Genawa

1328
01:01:00,120 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 3: fromot It side. So going on the road here to

1329
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:05,360
Speaker 3: AC Milan, both teams obviously have Champions League duties coming up,

1330
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 3: so there's no spot advantage for either team. So I

1331
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 3: like Milan as a short home favorite. I minus one

1332
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 3: twenty five.

1333
01:01:11,520 --> 01:01:14,680
Speaker 4: And you're the only one with something in league before

1334
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 4: we get to our underdogs.

1335
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 3: Well we should give Nice a round of applause for

1336
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 3: that win for Anthony as an underdog. On Friday, Ballagoon

1337
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,680
Speaker 3: missing two penalties against Beautiful, That's how I drew it up.

1338
01:01:25,480 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 3: But no, Nice minus won thirty five against a team

1339
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 3: that I've been very, very wrong about. If you listen

1340
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 3: to our preview pod, I said, I want I like

1341
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 3: breast at about you know, plus one thirty five range

1342
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:38,920
Speaker 3: to be relegated and they're at the top of the table.

1343
01:01:42,080 --> 01:01:43,880
Speaker 3: I don't think I could have been more wrong about

1344
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:46,000
Speaker 3: the team, And honestly, a lot of their underlying metrics

1345
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,600
Speaker 3: are kind of impressive, but when they've had to play Marseille,

1346
01:01:48,600 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 3: when they had to play PSG, they've they've they've struggled.

1347
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:54,160
Speaker 3: And this Nice team, you know since I've mentioned it,

1348
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:56,439
Speaker 3: but basically since we came back from the World Cup

1349
01:01:56,520 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 3: last year, they have the second best expect gold differential

1350
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:03,560
Speaker 3: in France of anybody. This is a really really good squad,

1351
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 3: a very solid defensive team, and minus one thirty five

1352
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 3: for me is a tad cheap going up against a

1353
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:11,479
Speaker 3: team that was a relegation fodder team last year. Maybe

1354
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:13,520
Speaker 3: they've turned a corner. I don't think so, going on

1355
01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 3: the road here against Nice, who is not playing in Europe,

1356
01:02:16,120 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 3: so if they don't have any of those type of

1357
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:21,120
Speaker 3: responsibilities to deal with the team that just keeps putting

1358
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 3: in good performances week after week. So I like Nice

1359
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 3: minus one thirty five.

1360
01:02:25,320 --> 01:02:29,320
Speaker 4: Okay, onto our underdog parlay. This one's going to pop

1361
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 4: out at about sixty two to one. I missed last week.

1362
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:34,160
Speaker 4: I know you guys put in spurs for me. Should

1363
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 4: have won, Anthony.

1364
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, we had a winning two draws last weekend. So yeah,

1365
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 2: two losses, we're getting whispers and should have one. Newton

1366
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:44,800
Speaker 2: was the better side. I believe Nice wasn't, so we

1367
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:47,880
Speaker 2: should have won. I'm gonna go with Strasburg plus two

1368
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:51,280
Speaker 2: thirty on Friday, so they're at home. Look, I don't

1369
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:52,920
Speaker 2: think there's a huge gap between these two teams. I

1370
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 2: think this should be closer to a pick them. Lens

1371
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:57,440
Speaker 2: has lost their two best players. We've talked about how

1372
01:02:57,480 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 2: bad they've been thus far this season. They're they're champions.

1373
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:02,440
Speaker 2: Leg performance was kind of their one shining moment against Sevilla,

1374
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 2: where they they outplayed Sevilla marginal, you know, one to

1375
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:07,280
Speaker 2: one road draw. That's about all they have to show

1376
01:03:07,320 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 2: for their season, and so I think they continue to

1377
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:11,440
Speaker 2: be a bet against and I think the market has

1378
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:14,320
Speaker 2: not downgraded them enough. Their expected goal differences is right

1379
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:17,880
Speaker 2: around average this year thus far, so is Strasbourg's. And

1380
01:03:18,040 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 2: Strasbourg had one really bad game against Nice. But again

1381
01:03:22,120 --> 01:03:24,280
Speaker 2: we've seen how good Niece is and so I'm not

1382
01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:26,400
Speaker 2: going to really downgrade them too much for that performance.

1383
01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:29,720
Speaker 2: And I think that this is a certainly a bet

1384
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:32,040
Speaker 2: on team, So I'm going to buy them at home

1385
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:35,520
Speaker 2: and back to the Vieira Revolution.

1386
01:03:35,760 --> 01:03:36,720
Speaker 1: If they're a bet on team.

1387
01:03:36,720 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 4: Manchester United remains a bet against team, especially in a

1388
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:42,760
Speaker 4: situation like this where they are a big favorite minus

1389
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 4: one seventy five against Palace. Crystal Palace, who's solid team,

1390
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 4: tough to break down, tough to be, well managed, well organized.

1391
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 4: Palace is five to one on the on the money line.

1392
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 4: These two teams just met on Tuesday in the EFL Cup.

1393
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:56,360
Speaker 1: Palace played at B squad.

1394
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:59,280
Speaker 4: They played like a B squad and I'm hoping that

1395
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 4: this never actually get a little bit bigger. Is people

1396
01:04:01,640 --> 01:04:04,080
Speaker 4: notice that result, but I think five to one to

1397
01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 4: take on United, who have just look at their results.

1398
01:04:07,040 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 1: They're three to zero to.

1399
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:10,320
Speaker 4: Three win draw loss in the Premier League. They're three

1400
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:14,240
Speaker 4: wins against Wolves, lucky win Forrest they were down to

1401
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 4: nothing and then Burnley.

1402
01:04:15,680 --> 01:04:17,080
Speaker 1: They split the expected goals.

1403
01:04:17,880 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 4: A couple a call goes one way, a couple of

1404
01:04:20,680 --> 01:04:22,840
Speaker 4: bounces go another way, and we could be talking about

1405
01:04:22,920 --> 01:04:25,800
Speaker 4: United having one win in the Premier League this season.

1406
01:04:25,840 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 4: So I'll continue to fade them, especially when I'm getting

1407
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:30,240
Speaker 4: numbers like this. Dealt my way five to one a

1408
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 4: Crystal Palace. They're my favorite underdog.

1409
01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:36,360
Speaker 3: This is maybe one of the sickest underdogs I've ever played,

1410
01:04:36,520 --> 01:04:38,520
Speaker 3: and I really don't know how this is gonna go.

1411
01:04:39,640 --> 01:04:44,240
Speaker 3: Heidenheim plus two twenty against Unyan Berlin in a lookhead spot,

1412
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:47,800
Speaker 3: obviously having a Champions League match. Heidenheim is conceded fourteen

1413
01:04:47,840 --> 01:04:52,640
Speaker 3: point eight expect goals in five matches. They are horrific defensively,

1414
01:04:53,000 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 3: so so bad. But what I will say, if you

1415
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:59,000
Speaker 3: look at their statistcal profile, they can't stop anybody going

1416
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:01,120
Speaker 3: through the middle of the pitch. But that's not where

1417
01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 3: Unjan Blin does their attacks. They like to play out wide.

1418
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:08,120
Speaker 3: Heidenheim has conceided the third fewest crosses of anybody in

1419
01:05:08,160 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 3: the Bundesliga. But guess what, they also are creating chances offensively,

1420
01:05:11,040 --> 01:05:13,720
Speaker 3: almost nine expected goals in those five matches. They're a

1421
01:05:13,720 --> 01:05:15,919
Speaker 3: team that wants to press high, try to disrupt build

1422
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:17,880
Speaker 3: a play and I've just got kind of gotten ripped apart.

1423
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:22,160
Speaker 3: But they've been decent in defending set pieces, decent defending crosses.

1424
01:05:22,240 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 3: So going against Unyan Berlin team that that's basically how

1425
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:28,120
Speaker 3: they create all of their chances, especially in a look

1426
01:05:28,160 --> 01:05:31,320
Speaker 3: ahead spot, and Hidenheim's at home here, I think there's

1427
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:33,320
Speaker 3: a decent chance they pull off an upset. I mean,

1428
01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 3: this is you want to talk about variants, I mean

1429
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:39,320
Speaker 3: this is about as high variance as it gets between

1430
01:05:39,360 --> 01:05:43,560
Speaker 3: these two sides. So let's hope the home dog can

1431
01:05:43,560 --> 01:05:45,360
Speaker 3: come out at plus two to twenty. But I mean

1432
01:05:45,360 --> 01:05:48,640
Speaker 3: this Heidenheim team, they are, I mean, maybe one of

1433
01:05:48,680 --> 01:05:51,240
Speaker 3: the worst defensive teams I've ever seen come up to

1434
01:05:51,280 --> 01:05:53,640
Speaker 3: the Bundesliga, even worse than that groat their first team

1435
01:05:54,240 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 3: for two years back. So yeah, a team that was

1436
01:05:59,360 --> 01:06:03,600
Speaker 3: I know, Hide and High plus two twenty sixty two.

1437
01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:07,040
Speaker 4: To one Hide and Hind Palace in Strasbourg. Like I said,

1438
01:06:07,240 --> 01:06:09,480
Speaker 4: we're warming up towards one, so hop in well they

1439
01:06:09,520 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 4: getting's good. On to our favorite bets for match week

1440
01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:16,800
Speaker 4: seven in the Premier League coming your way Saturday Sunday, Anthony,

1441
01:06:16,960 --> 01:06:17,480
Speaker 4: who you got?

1442
01:06:17,520 --> 01:06:19,680
Speaker 2: I made a late change. I'm going with Sheffield United

1443
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:23,040
Speaker 2: plus one against west Ham. The more and more I

1444
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:24,760
Speaker 2: thought about this game, the more and more I just

1445
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:27,960
Speaker 2: cannot wait to bet this team. And so you know,

1446
01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:30,440
Speaker 2: anytime you bet anytime a team loses eight to zero

1447
01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 2: at home, I might add, and then has to go

1448
01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:34,040
Speaker 2: on the road, you got to back them. But really

1449
01:06:34,120 --> 01:06:36,000
Speaker 2: this is about west Ham and then being overrated and

1450
01:06:36,040 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 2: getting to play all of these teams that are really

1451
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:40,080
Speaker 2: good early in the season and getting some really good

1452
01:06:40,120 --> 01:06:43,400
Speaker 2: results out of it. That's what Moyse excels in the

1453
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 2: defending deep but very quietly, their defensive numbers are worse

1454
01:06:47,320 --> 01:06:49,520
Speaker 2: and they won't get as much space to attack into. Therefore,

1455
01:06:49,520 --> 01:06:52,080
Speaker 2: they're going to struggle against the more settled possession of Sheffield.

1456
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:55,840
Speaker 2: Sheffield's going to give them, So give me the Blades

1457
01:06:55,960 --> 01:06:59,240
Speaker 2: on the road ultimate ultimate buyback spot.

1458
01:07:00,720 --> 01:07:04,120
Speaker 4: I was really hoping that I was having a tough

1459
01:07:04,120 --> 01:07:07,800
Speaker 4: time deciding between Pallace and Sheffield United. Is my favorite underdog,

1460
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:10,560
Speaker 4: so I was really hoping someone else would sprinkle them

1461
01:07:10,560 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 4: in there. But alas, we'll just have to use him

1462
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:16,280
Speaker 4: as one of our best bets. I'll use Spurs Anthony's

1463
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:20,280
Speaker 4: second team taking on his first team. That's Liverpool in

1464
01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:23,520
Speaker 4: the headliner for match week seven. Spurs is a home

1465
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 4: underdog in this spot. I think that's wrong and I

1466
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:29,880
Speaker 4: understand why it's being priced that way. James Madison's status

1467
01:07:30,000 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 4: is up in the air, fifty to fifty, you could say,

1468
01:07:32,800 --> 01:07:35,200
Speaker 4: and you could make the argument that he's been the

1469
01:07:35,240 --> 01:07:37,920
Speaker 4: most important player to any team this season in the

1470
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:40,520
Speaker 4: Premier League. That said, I still like the number right

1471
01:07:40,560 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 4: now because I think it's being priced to a spot

1472
01:07:42,680 --> 01:07:46,000
Speaker 4: where if you're right and Madison is if you're right

1473
01:07:46,000 --> 01:07:48,479
Speaker 4: about Madison being in the lineup, this line should crash

1474
01:07:48,520 --> 01:07:50,720
Speaker 4: a bit. You'll get really good number on Spurs. I

1475
01:07:50,720 --> 01:07:53,120
Speaker 4: guess a Liverpool team that they should give some problems

1476
01:07:53,120 --> 01:07:56,439
Speaker 4: to defensively. Spurs has been playing at a frenetic pace

1477
01:07:56,520 --> 01:08:02,840
Speaker 4: under new manager and Postacoglu. Liverpool has just been pedestrian

1478
01:08:02,920 --> 01:08:07,080
Speaker 4: defensively for eighteen months now, twenty four months now, so

1479
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:10,000
Speaker 4: they should give the Reds all they can handle. Perhaps

1480
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:12,920
Speaker 4: Liverpool can outscore those issues once again, but against a

1481
01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:16,519
Speaker 4: team that is creeping into that top three top four

1482
01:08:16,920 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 4: in the Premier League.

1483
01:08:18,160 --> 01:08:19,680
Speaker 1: I don't see it. I don't know if it's going

1484
01:08:19,720 --> 01:08:20,040
Speaker 1: to happen.

1485
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:23,439
Speaker 2: Maybe Arsenal's just worse. It's a very real possibility for

1486
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 2: the North London Derby that in fact the top four

1487
01:08:26,640 --> 01:08:30,680
Speaker 2: is still Newcastle, Brighton, Liverpool and Spurgs.

1488
01:08:31,439 --> 01:08:34,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, now, Spurs are great, but bet all three of

1489
01:08:34,960 --> 01:08:35,840
Speaker 4: us around them, and it's.

1490
01:08:35,680 --> 01:08:40,080
Speaker 3: A good thought, but they're not. Bja Brighton draw no

1491
01:08:40,160 --> 01:08:43,240
Speaker 3: bet even money against aston Villa on the road. A

1492
01:08:43,280 --> 01:08:45,559
Speaker 3: really good tactle match up here for Brighton, who is

1493
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:49,000
Speaker 3: going to press aston Villa high and well Uniami only

1494
01:08:49,040 --> 01:08:50,599
Speaker 3: wants aston Villa to play it out of the back.

1495
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:53,080
Speaker 3: And you've watched basically one match gift with aston Villa,

1496
01:08:53,080 --> 01:08:56,559
Speaker 3: who's placing played an elite pressing team and Newcastle got

1497
01:08:56,600 --> 01:08:59,840
Speaker 3: absolutely ripped apart. Brighton third and pass per defensive actions

1498
01:09:00,000 --> 01:09:03,080
Speaker 3: second in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, so they

1499
01:09:03,080 --> 01:09:05,439
Speaker 3: should be able to disrupt aston Villa's build up play

1500
01:09:05,479 --> 01:09:07,599
Speaker 3: create a lot of high turnovers, which in turn creates

1501
01:09:07,720 --> 01:09:10,360
Speaker 3: chances and aston Villa the way they play defensively with

1502
01:09:10,439 --> 01:09:13,559
Speaker 3: their high line trying to compress the space in between

1503
01:09:13,600 --> 01:09:15,920
Speaker 3: their two defensive lines, Chelsea was able to make so

1504
01:09:15,960 --> 01:09:18,080
Speaker 3: many runs off the back line and create a lot

1505
01:09:18,120 --> 01:09:20,240
Speaker 3: of chances against them, although they don't have the finishers

1506
01:09:20,280 --> 01:09:22,599
Speaker 3: playing that high line against the Brighton offense that is

1507
01:09:22,840 --> 01:09:25,600
Speaker 3: second second most created the second most expected goals so

1508
01:09:25,680 --> 01:09:28,120
Speaker 3: far in the Premier League this season. With guys like Metoma,

1509
01:09:28,160 --> 01:09:31,000
Speaker 3: Marsh Ferguson all the plethora of attackers that they have

1510
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:33,040
Speaker 3: being able to make those runs off the back line,

1511
01:09:33,120 --> 01:09:35,799
Speaker 3: it's a really, really dangerous game to play for aston

1512
01:09:35,840 --> 01:09:38,760
Speaker 3: Villa so good, good tactical matchup here for Brighton so

1513
01:09:38,840 --> 01:09:40,320
Speaker 3: like them drawn a bett of even money.

1514
01:09:40,360 --> 01:09:44,240
Speaker 4: There you have it, a another week of soccer handicapping

1515
01:09:44,360 --> 01:09:46,040
Speaker 4: is in the book. We was in the books. We'll

1516
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:48,880
Speaker 4: see you again on Monday morning. Well we'll talk some

1517
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:52,360
Speaker 4: more Champions League. The fixtures are piling up, piling up,

1518
01:09:53,080 --> 01:09:55,120
Speaker 4: and we'll be here for all of it. For BJ Cunningham,

1519
01:09:55,120 --> 01:09:57,479
Speaker 4: for Anthony Dubundo and our sponsors BET three six five

1520
01:09:57,479 --> 01:09:59,639
Speaker 4: by Michael Leebo. Thank you for listening to Wonder Goal.

1521
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:03,000
Speaker 4: Please be sure to rate review, subscribe all that Jazz,

1522
01:10:03,040 --> 01:10:05,280
Speaker 4: and while you're at it, you can also rate review,

1523
01:10:05,280 --> 01:10:08,439
Speaker 4: subscribe the other Action Network podcast, Hey Line change here

1524
01:10:08,439 --> 01:10:10,760
Speaker 4: into depending on hockey. We'll be coming back very soon

1525
01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:16,439
Speaker 4: as well. Go Flyers, Big Year incoming LGB lgibby you

1526
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:17,240
Speaker 4: guys next time.

1527
01:10:24,520 --> 01:10:29,040
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1528
01:10:29,080 --> 01:10:31,880
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1529
01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:35,040
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler