WEBVTT - NFL WEEK 10 Bets: Rams-49ers, Ravens-Vikings, Packers-Eagles and NFL Trade Deadline Reactions 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:04.920 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bat. We 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:07.960 are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:11.879 show that makes the squares sharper and mix. The wise 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:14.400 guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:16.560 I am joined as always by my co. 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:23.320 Host, my bff, my companion, my campadre professional better Simon Hunter. 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:27.400 Hello, Simon, Chad. 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:29.320 I woke a little sad today. I think we only 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:32.200 have three months left a football brother. I can't believe 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:33.400 it's flying by this fast. 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:36.839 When I started making notes for the show yesterday, you know, 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:44.360 I title all my notes columns like Sharp week XX Tuesday, Thursday, 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:49.640 Sunday AM, Sunday PM. When I wrote week ten, it 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:54.480 was shocking to me, like the on ramp to joining 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:58.880 the Volume was so sudden. And then to now be 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:03.800 ten weeks into this thing and the season be more 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:04.720 than halfway over. 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:08.520 Is I'm already kind of sad. 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:13.480 It always hits me when you know after the clock 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:20.160 changes and by the four thirty games it's dark, and 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:22.319 I know when I take the garbage out later, it's 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.680 going to be cold and dark, and it's going to 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:28.120 be like that, And the only thing that makes me 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:32.320 happy on a Sunday is the football, and that's like 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:35.000 we're on the other side of it. 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:36.160 That's no fun. 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:37.360 I know. 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:39.440 I'm an other way though, as a guy who's overweight, 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:43.720 this is overweight man season, got it bundled up. I 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:48.520 love Thanksgiving again a big guy. Love Christmas like I 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:50.600 love this time of year with football, it actually matters 0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:53.440 and the games matter like that Bill's Chiefs game. I 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:56.600 feel like the first real playoffs tone center of this season, 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.240 Like it's got me right into the mood of November 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:02.000 December foot Well, so I'm with you. 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:03.920 I obviously I'm a flip flop guy. 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:06.160 I love the warm weather, but this is the best 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.560 like as a football fan, as a as a cold 0:02:08.560 --> 0:02:10.400 weather fan, doesn't get much better than right now. 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:15.120 How much weight will you actually gain during overweight season? 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:19.000 I don't because I pack it on like I stress 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:22.359 a hardcore. September we had a rough We had a 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:25.520 nervous September because we had to do well. Yeah, we 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:27.839 probably put twenty pounds on then I probably dropped five 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:30.400 pounds since because like it's all good, right, life's all 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:31.240 good now. 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:33.799 But yeah, September, that was a tough month for your boy. 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:36.840 I was stress eating because I just couldn't sleep. Like 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:39.480 that's the hardest part. If you can't sleep, you just 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:41.040 eat and you knock out. You know it is if 0:02:41.080 --> 0:02:42.480 you have a full stomach, it just knocks you out. 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:44.600 Like I'll just see a bowl of pasta and I'm out. 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:47.720 Pasta is literally the worst thing you can possibly eat. 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:51.760 You're eating a bowl of pasta at like midnight or like. 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:53.920 Four in the morning, Like I've worked all night. I 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:55.880 gotta go to bed because we have a show or whatever. 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:57.760 It is eleven to twelve in the morning. Just gotta 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.240 eat bulla. Pasta puts me. I know again, I'm not 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:03.200 doing it now now that like we're late in the season, 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:05.919 I can sleep. But yeah, when I'm stressed out, I 0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:08.440 can't sleep. I mean again, that's part of the gambling life. 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:11.079 Like I can't stop looking at the numbers. I think 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:13.519 what I'm missing. So yeah, now it's all good. 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:14.200 Dude. 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:19.000 I haven't eaten a bowla pasta period, let alone pasta 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:23.400 at four in the morning. Wow, that's crazy. 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:25.120 I mean, I'm in an unfair spot. I have a 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.239 guy who makes it by hand a block away from 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:30.919 me and had a field like this amazing Italian restaurant 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:33.400 and it's like, it's the best pasta and sauce you 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:34.040 can possibly have. 0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:36.280 I'm with you. I was on a late night pasta 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:39.000 guy either until I met this man. I'm just addicted 0:03:39.040 --> 0:03:39.280 to it. 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:41.040 I'd like to meet him, see what he can do. 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:42.880 If he can turn me into a late night pasta day. 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:45.720 All right, listen, it's been about forty hours since our 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:50.280 worst week of the season. Talk about stress. It took 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:53.040 me until yesterday afternoon to really feel like, Okay, I 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:55.360 can start looking at these numbers again. Unfortunately, a lot 0:03:55.400 --> 0:03:57.480 of these numbers were already moving from what we talked 0:03:57.520 --> 0:03:59.720 about on Sunday night in the direction we thought we 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:04.520 would they would go. Reminder, we went one and four 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:09.680 last week in our five favorite picks. We won with 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:15.600 the Atlanta Falcons, we lost with the Chargers, Texans, Lions, 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:22.960 and Chiefs. Four favorites did us in. Clearly we over corrected. 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:27.560 What's making me feel worse a lot of favorites that 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:29.640 I like this week. For the year, we are twenty 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:34.320 five and twenty through nine weeks with our five favorite picks. 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:38.960 This is our Tuesday show. We will review the entire slate. 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:44.240 It is our first Tuesday Show of November. 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:49.320 No them but can be cold and gray. 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:53.560 No them that can be surly, With bitter rain upon 0:04:53.600 --> 0:05:01.200 the world and winter coming early. Do you fear the 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:05.120 force of the wind, the slash of the rain. Go 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:09.719 face them and fight them. Be savage again. The palms 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:12.800 of your hands will thicken, the skin of your cheek 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:17.480 will can You'll grow ragged and weary and wet. 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:19.039 But you must do the best you can. 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:26.840 Make sure you check out the Sunday Am show if 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:27.520 you want. 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:29.720 The games that will be our official five after we've 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:32.479 had a chance to review the latest line moves injuries 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:36.359 this week. That will also include any impact from trades. 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:38.479 Don't forget. You can get the shows at Sharper Square 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:41.160 on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video while you're 0:05:41.200 --> 0:05:44.840 at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apples, Spotify, 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:48.440 wherever you get your pause. All right, got a Thursday 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:50.320 night game and I think you and I both have 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:56.120 a strong opinion on this Las Vegas at Denver the 0:05:56.160 --> 0:06:00.560 Denver Broncos currently eight and a half. The first note 0:06:00.640 --> 0:06:05.919 I made on this game, no hesitation, Give me the Broncos. 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:06.800 What say you? 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:11.680 Shaker Chad Simon says, give me the Broncos minus eight 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:12.119 and a half. 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:16.440 I am Simon says, Broncos minus eight and a half 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:18.640 presented by hard Rock Bett. 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:20.240 I want to play a game. 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:22.120 Simon says. 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:24.320 It is a little shocking. I don't know we've ever 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:25.880 had a Thursday. 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:29.000 Simon says, I've done them, but it's shocking I would 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:31.600 take this big of a favorite, honestly divisional game when 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:33.159 we just talked about how we need to get back 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:36.200 to our dog ways. It's it's really about the number 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:40.320 on the spot, and I'm excited to dive more into 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:42.599 this game as a week as long. Here see where 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:45.880 this number does go. Like this Raiders team could be 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:47.800 sellers right right now, and that's why I want to 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:49.839 get this number out early. People to grab this number 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:53.560 early because it might just be the Rock Bauer Show. 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:53.680 Right. 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:57.320 They're already traded Jacobe Myers this morning for a pick, 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:00.960 you know, to the Jaguars. There they're sellers and they 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:02.839 should be right. I talked to people all the time 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:06.960 within that organization that game last week, not that they 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:09.840 dictate it if they're going to retain Pete Carroll, but 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.160 it kind of did like Pete Carroll put his neck 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:16.080 out there, wanted to get Gino. He needed some wins here, 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:18.200 and it feels like they're a package dealer with If 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:21.640 they keep tanking to get a quarterback this year, they'll 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:23.600 send Pete and Geno packing. 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:26.120 So I think that was a give it all game 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:27.120 last week that they blew. 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:30.720 And we talk all the time situationally, there's certain opportunities 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:31.400 during the season. 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:33.440 This feels like a rare opportunity. 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.400 Do you have a Raiders team that played a really 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:40.160 hard fought game and went to overtime and used up 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:44.440 the full overtime clock, like they played a ton of football, 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:47.440 and now they're on a short week on Thursday night football. 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:51.000 It's pretty easy numbers to find teams in this exact spot. 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:55.280 Six and twenty five against the spread, so nineteen percent. 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:58.280 All right, let's check out what's it like for that 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:02.280 team on the road even worse three and sixteen against 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:05.120 the spreads exact spot, So you. 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:07.760 Know, could this be an allier? Could this Raiders team 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:08.720 pull off the upset? Sure? 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:11.400 But this is the type of game where the Raiders team, 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:13.280 like last I thought we had a good spot that 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:16.120 was to me a good bet that we got unfortunately 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.040 got got by the backup quarterback here. 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.960 This is exact game that Bonnicks just blows out teams like. 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:25.720 It's a bad Raiders defense that's really bad against quarterbacks. 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:28.600 Gonna run the football, yeah, on the flip side. 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:31.520 Defensively, I love this matchup for this Denver team, and 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:34.520 it get right spot against a quarterback I still don't trust. 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:36.959 Even going back and rewatching that Raiders game, it just 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:38.679 felt like the Brock Bowers game, like he had just 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:41.080 had defenders bouncing off on him making plays. 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:43.920 Nothing Gino did in that game give me more confidence. 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.160 He's still thrown off his back foot, still happy feet, 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:48.280 still lock it in on his number one read, and 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:50.120 that's the only read he's gonna throw it to him. 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:52.599 Lucky for him, it's Brock Powers, who obviously is a 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:56.319 game changer. So yeah, this number, I thought it'd be 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:58.640 getting to ten. It's called the other way. It's gone 0:08:58.640 --> 0:08:59.760 from nine and a half down to eight and a 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:03.000 half right now. So pros are coming in on this 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:04.480 Raiders team, but I'm gonna go against him. 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:06.760 I think they're overreading on a short week. 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:08.720 I like the spot a lot for this Broncos team 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.920 and a team that typically bo Nicks, he dominates in 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:13.280 these exact spots. 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:19.800 O Simon, this might have been. There's probably three games 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:23.040 that I feel great about right now. It'll it'll change 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:23.960 over the course of the week. 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:25.840 This was one of them. 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.760 Everything about this to me screamed, get right spot for 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:35.400 the Broncos. A much better defense, a Raiders defense that 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:39.720 gives up a seventy completion rate in the secondary. He saw, 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:43.160 We saw how Trevor Lawrence did it against them, kept 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.440 them going down the field. That second half was just 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:48.480 a track meet. This is a much much better defense. 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:49.200 Don't forget it. 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:53.840 In that Jacksonville game, Trayvon Walker left the game because 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:58.080 he tried to close fist, closed fist punch a guy 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:01.200 in the face. He was a jack That was a 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:03.520 significant difference in the game. Like you could see, they 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.120 stopped getting any pass rush on Gino once he went 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:08.320 out of the game. That's not going to be a 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:12.080 problem for the Broncos. And they are just too good 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:16.480 defensively and too well coached offensively. Even bo Nicks can't 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:20.079 get in the way of this Thursday night a home 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:26.800 favorites of more than nine sixty one percent against the spread. 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:29.120 Thank you Killer Sports. I thought you would like that 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:30.920 one because I know you like the trends, but I 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:32.600 like it too. In this case, I think we're going 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:36.640 to end up having Denver in our final five and 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:39.240 as a contest play, and it's going to be a Thursday, 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:41.360 a rare Thursday play for us. 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:43.959 That'll be interesting. I definitely have a conversation on. 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:50.040 Thursday, Atlanta versus Indy. This one's in Berlin, nine thirty am. 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:53.839 Eastern Indie's a five point favorite. Someone was impressed with 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:58.920 the Falcons because this one after their loss to the Patriots, 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.240 and after the Colts lost to the Steelers, this moved 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:02.480 from six and a half to five and a half 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:04.640 down to five at hard Rock five and a half. 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:09.480 In a lot of other places Listen, Colts were undone Sunday. 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:14.200 A lot of turnovers specifically by the steel forced by 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:18.880 the Steelers best playmakers of the best times, pressure from 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.600 Alex Heismith, pressure from TJ. 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:26.880 Watt. The Colts gave up five sacks and the Falcons, like. 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:32.840 One in ten one of ten of third downs, played 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:37.040 opportunistically but not well. They did exactly what they needed 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:39.160 to do when they got the turnovers from Drake May 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:45.280 fumbles interceptions. On Sunday we talked about the wise guys, 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:47.440 I mean the Falcons and the wise guys have moved 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:48.760 it in that direction. 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:51.880 I think I like the Falcons here. 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:55.440 I don't know. I'm worried about it moved too much. 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:57.160 I like the Falcons. We talked about it six and 0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:59.440 a half Sunday night. That's where I wanted to be. 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.000 You just I mean, you nailed it. They were one 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:05.520 and ten on third down. I don't trust benex Man. 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:09.280 I just cannot trust this kid. It's so inconsistent, it's 0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:12.240 so up and down. And we joked we really did 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.920 steal that one. Like that's why we always say you 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:16.840 just trust the number. You bet that when you bet 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.480 those games. And I had no idea how Lana was 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:21.800 gonna get there. I neither would find a way here. 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:23.719 The way the number has been moving, it's like, are 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:25.320 they going to find a way? Has the number moved 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:28.400 too much? Against the Colts team that we talked about, 0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:32.640 like when it's going they're an absolute juggernaut offensively. It 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:36.600 took five insane turnovers by Daniel Jones for them to 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:40.440 lose by seven last week, Like can't be understated enough, 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:42.719 how good that offense is in a game like that, 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:46.240 they can still put up twenty points, So I know 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.400 it's tough. I want to be on the Falcons. There's 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:52.000 still one plus six out there if you're able to 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:54.760 If I have to make a pick right now, yeah, 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:55.480 I'll go that side. 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:57.360 But this gets below four. 0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:00.600 If this gets to four and a half, four, I 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:02.360 might have to take a position on the Colts. It's 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:06.040 just International games always is going to lean towards the favorites. Yeah, 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:08.520 and I get what the pros are doing here. Like 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:10.160 I said, that's such a key number of betting, the 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:12.720 six down. But hard Rock they're showing us they've already 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:14.520 been hit by the pros. They're their first book I've 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:18.880 seen get the five. So yeah, it's it's slowly becoming 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:21.480 a cold sliine. I'm not gonna touch it yet until 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:23.840 it cross. Is another key number. If you obviously listened 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.120 to Shirt Sunday Night, or you can get it right now, 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:29.160 get the six of you say able to Atlanta that 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:30.280 at that number feels right? 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:32.640 But man, we joke. 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.400 I went back and watched that Atlanta game again because 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:36.680 it's just like, how did we get away with that? 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:38.439 One that was like you, I saw that, said, I 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:40.440 didn't realize they were only one for ten and third downs. 0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:43.600 Yeah, got away with it because of Drake London. That 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:45.200 was it. Just Drake London. 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:46.840 Drake London. Yeah, that was it. 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:50.520 But it's also why we bet it, Like knowing he 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:52.320 was going to be back is the reason why we 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.840 wanted to bet that game. He's the best asset that 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.199 Michael Pennix has. I'm with you, like, I don't want 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.079 to other than Caleb Williams rust to judgment on any 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:05.160 quarterbacks in their second year. And I always loved Michael 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:08.720 Pennox going back to his EU days, but he's way 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:11.960 inconsistent and making bad decisions. 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.040 He's a rookie saying he's a rookie. Yeah, so second year. 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:17.760 Rookie kind of barely played last year. 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:21.760 So right, uh, all right, we'll put a pin in 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:23.560 that one because five is kind of a dead number. 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:25.840 I don't I don't like. That's why I was wishy washing. 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:30.080 I couldn't really get a read at that number because. 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:33.200 That much like the pros hit it that hard in 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:34.160 a national game. 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:37.240 So, like you said, it's it's very clear what position 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:38.440 the professionals. 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:40.560 Are on hard rock, a sneaky sharp book. 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.080 Yeah, they're always ahead of the line. Movement's pretty well. 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:46.080 It's pretty interesting. Good indicator. 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:51.360 Super Bowl greens that glowed in the summer sunshine, flicker 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:55.560 and fade, and the autumn shadows and hopes that were 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:58.960 high in the heat of September and will and die 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:00.720 in the chill of November. 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:05.000 Buffalo at Miami, Miami is a nine and a half 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:06.280 point dog at home. 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:07.880 I don't know, Like. 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:14.960 I know it's it's you gotta play Miami, especially coming 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.720 off of that game. But in my head it's Buffalo 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:21.160 or nothing like like like. 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.640 We'll throw I know it's not that down. 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:25.160 Then if you're gonna do something like that, get them 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:26.520 to two and a half, like take him in a 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:27.840 seven point teaser or something. 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.880 But here's the flip side. Hold on, let me interrupt 0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:33.720 you for one second, cause here's the flip side. We 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:39.840 got so burned by my favorites last week, it almost 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:43.760 makes sense that we would have to lean into Miami here. 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:47.600 Well, it's just it's also a little bit of an 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.720 inflated line. In my opinion, it's like the Bills minus 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:52.800 nine and a half. They can't stop the run. They're 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:54.600 going against it one of the best run blocking scheme 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:55.680 teams in all of football. 0:15:55.960 --> 0:16:00.920 And I don't know. It's like, like I was talking 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:01.520 to the guy the other day. 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.040 My dream scenario again these trades never happened, would be 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.360 for a guy like a Chan to go to the Chiefs, 0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:09.600 like they had a Jamal Charles type in the Chiefs 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:10.840 offense in a lifetime. 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:12.560 That's like the perfect matchup. 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:14.680 But I talk to people on AAM and they're like, yeah, 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:16.280 we're looking for a first and a second. 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.360 It's like, no one's gonna trade you that for this guy. 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:22.600 It's so they highly value Chan and this feels like 0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:28.560 an eight Chan game. And you know the Bills the 0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:31.440 last time they played them, that was when it was 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:34.760 all going really negative for that Miami team and Miami. 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.080 Back door covered it whatever it was. 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:39.240 But just looking at this line, you're right, like, we 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.680 know we're supposed to bet Miami. I don't know if 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:42.920 I'm gonna force it in to be one of my 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:45.560 favorite bets, but it's like a nine and a. 0:16:45.560 --> 0:16:47.040 Half some books touch ten. 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:50.440 I'll take Miami, but god, it's I just it's hard 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:52.880 to trust Miami. They're just so dysfunctional right now, it's 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.680 all crashing down. So it was like last week against 0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:57.800 the Ravens. They had all these opportunities. They out played 0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:00.160 the Ravens in the first half, and they just kept 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:03.040 shoot themselves in the foot self inflicted wounds, and then 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:04.840 the second half they just couldn't do a single thing. 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.520 So I'm going to be it's hard to trust this 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:12.040 Miami team, but I gotta expect I'll extended rest playing 0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:14.320 against the Bills team come off a high emotional win 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:16.520 this past Sunday, now going on the road to play 0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:20.040 Miami here just you know, a point or two inflated line. 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:22.399 Once again, not going to force it in, but I 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:23.760 do have a model at seven and a half. 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:27.080 So I think what's interesting here that we got to 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:31.639 be cognizant of for today at least, is who's going 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:32.359 to be a seller. 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:34.480 We just talked about it with the Raiders. 0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:37.919 We saw the Miami has already traded Jalen Phillips to 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.919 the Eagles, so who else are they going to get 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:42.560 rid of? But by the end of the day, will 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:45.719 Jalen Waddle be on the Miami Dolphins? And if so, 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:50.399 with that impact our thinking about betting the Dolphins as 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:51.720 huge underdogs. 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:52.800 I think you're right. 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:56.679 The Dolphins are the right side here, they're the play. 0:17:57.480 --> 0:17:59.199 But I kind of want to wait until I know 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:00.920 a little bit more about who's going to be playing. 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:02.280 And we don't really want to do it again. 0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:04.560 There's tens out there people, you can grab the tens 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.960 if you want, But it's like, I don't want to. 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.520 Bet the Dolphins. Yeah, you know who else? 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:13.080 I don't want to bet the Chicago Bears a minus 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:16.800 three and a half against the New York Football Giants. 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:19.560 Oh my god, I love Ben Johnson. 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:21.280 I love him. 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:27.160 Bet your bottom dollar you lose the Blues and Chicago chicag. 0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:29.959 The other day in the Chicago text chain that there 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:33.680 was a great sort of meme that I got sent. 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:38.879 It said, at the top is it's so over the 0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:42.359 bottom that to the right is we're so back. To 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.520 the bottom is it's over, And to the left is 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:49.000 we're back. Like that's the life cycle of a Bears 0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:55.040 fan and we lived it all on Sunday. Ben Johnson, 0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:57.160 to me is the saving grace. Every time I watch 0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:01.919 a Ben Johnson video postgame celebration, thrilled, he'll drop in. 0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:05.080 He just drops in we got some stuff to work on. 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:07.359 We're going to talk about that tomorrow. 0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:12.000 Today we are going to celebrate our win because it's 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:16.000 hard to win in the National Football League, and this 0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:21.680 team believes in him. Whether or not Caleb can do it, 0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:23.520 get us to the super Bowl, by the way, Simon, 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:27.600 because that's how I think about it doesn't matter. 0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:32.840 I love Ben Johnson. Here's my problem. Let me take 0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:33.520 you through this game. 0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:38.320 This defense is so bad, like if not for the 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:41.040 Bengals defense being so bad, the Bears do not win 0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:45.440 that game. And this is the kind of defense that 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:49.280 Jackson Dart can get healthy against. Right, he can scamper 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:52.320 all over this defense. The secondary gives up a seventy 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:54.960 or the team gives up a seventy one percent completion rate, 0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:58.080