WEBVTT - Stocks Rise as Dip Buyers Emerge 0:00:00.600 --> 0:00:10.840 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:15.000 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:18.040 Eastern on Affocar Playing and Broun Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:21.400 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.480 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:27.320 Alex Deel Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:30.240 Broker studio in New York City. We're also streaming live 0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:34.239 on that internet thing YouTube, YouTube dot com search Bloomberg 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:37.120 Podcast and that's where you'll find the broadcast here. Boy, 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.760 what a movement in these markets over the past forty 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:41.760 eight hours. Big, big sell off yesterday, even a little 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:43.360 bit of a panic in the morning, it felt like, 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:46.920 but then turning it around here on Tuesday. Peter Cheer, 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:49.479 head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, He joins us 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:52.599 live here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Peter, you've 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:54.960 got some experience, You've been around the block once or twice. 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:56.920 What do you make of kind of the last several 0:00:57.000 --> 0:00:57.680 days of trading? 0:00:58.240 --> 0:00:59.720 You know, I think we're starting to see a little 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:01.520 bit of a we saw a little bit of fear. 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:03.480 I think whether it's the carry trade or not, it 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:05.160 kind of pushed us in. There's a lot of leverage 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:07.480 in the system. A lot of people have been selling volatility, 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:09.760 a lot of people bought you know, full in on 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:11.840 the AI story. I think those are fading a little bit. 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:13.480 And yeah, we're getting a little bounce today. I think 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:14.600 we're gonna see more. 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:18.000 Selling though exactly that that was what I was worried about, Like. 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:20.480 It bounced, which I was shocked. We had to explain 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:21.080 that to somebody. 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:24.000 But anyway, whatever, why why. 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:25.160 Do you think it is to be more selling? Because 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:27.240 that was looking at the systemic funds and worried they're 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:30.240 the gamma hedging, the carried trade not being done. What 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:31.680 do you see that tells you more selling? 0:01:31.840 --> 0:01:33.240 Yeah, I think a lot of those And even on 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:35.640 a simple level, you just look at QQQ it took 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:39.480 in inflows, SPY took in inflows, and even more esoteric TQQQ, 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:42.040 which is a leverage act took in inflows yesterday. 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:44.360 And that's my leveraged s and P five hundred. 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:48.240 Leverage okay, and then my favorite one I think is MVDL, 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:51.240 which is a leverage in VideA ETF and that had 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:53.880 inflows yesterday, So I would like to see outflows there 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:55.680 to really believe we've had some capitulation. 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:57.880 So what did that tell you? Though? It just tells 0:01:57.920 --> 0:02:00.000 you that it's still a by the dep mentality inside. 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:02.800 I think it's still a by them mentality. But I think, 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.120 you know, yesterday everyone was so calm, Hey, don't worry 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.359 about this, It's all fine. People reacted. I think there's 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:12.280 more going on, the economy slowing, we have stretched valuations. 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:14.880 The FED is not going to be super supportive of markets. 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:16.720 They've got their own agenda, which is to kind of 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:20.079 make sure we don't get inflation again. So I think 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:23.000 we're very ripe for selling on any sort of earnings 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:24.760 weakness or economic data weakness. 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:27.320 What have you thought about the earnings? Let's get back 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:29.520 to something that presumably still matters in the markets. What 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:31.000 are you making of earnings. 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:33.720 That we finally have a higher standard for what's going 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:36.720 on with AI? You know, six months ago, certainly if 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:38.320 you just raised your hand and said we have an 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:41.880 AI strategy, you were rewarded. The chip companies were all 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:44.440 rewarded almost no matter what. And it feels like people 0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:46.079 are putting a little bit of scrutiny on this saying 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:49.280 where valuations are, and unfortunately, I think so many of 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:52.280 these stocks got heavily piled into that they're a little 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.560 bit overbought. And the other part that we've been talking 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:57.720 a lot more about is the concept of passive right passive. 0:02:57.800 --> 0:02:59.359 So whether you put your money into the S and 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:02.760 P five hundred or Nasdaq one hundred, about fifty cents 0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:05.320 in the dollar are going to just a handful of stocks. 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:07.400 So that fed the momentum on the way up, and 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:09.280 I think it's going to fuel the momentum unfortunately on 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:09.760 the way down. 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:12.000 Right, So it can go up in a straight line 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:13.440 and then it can also go down in a straight line, 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:16.720 doesn't have to go down differently. Do you think the 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:20.160 Fed should cut fifty bases points in September? 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:22.359 I don't think so yet. I think, well one, I 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:23.880 think they should have actually cut in July, and I 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:25.560 would have done fifty in July just to get this 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:26.040 out of the way. 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:28.240 You done fifty in July, Why fifty in July. 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:31.840 You've seen a nice slowdown and everything on the inflation front. 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.440 The only thing that's holding up CPI is the owner's 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:37.160 equivalent rent and Gosh only knows why we still use 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.800 something like that, anything that's you know, a contemporaneous measure 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:43.720 of inflation or sorry rent, whether it's Zillo is showing 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:46.400 rents of decline. The other thing that's kept CPI up 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.600 was auto insurance. We're not seeing that come through, so 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:50.200 I think they could react to that. I think the 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:52.920 job number have been overstated. I don't like what's going 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:55.320 on in the private The Jewelts even had a big 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.480 reduction in private jobs available. Get ahead of this. Plus, 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.800 I really am scared of fifty BIPs cut in September, 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:03.960 right in the heat of the election. I think it's 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:06.600 just going to become a political nightmare and people are 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:08.520 going to be screaming at the Fed. It's going to 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.760 detract from the Fed's mission, I think, which I think 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:12.440 they are very good at. I would have cut now, 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:13.840 see where it goes, and let. 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:14.280 It play out. 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:17.600 Once the FED does begin cutting, it's been such a 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:20.400 long time for at least in my mind, how do 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.120 they do it? Did they kind of go twenty five 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:25.440 basis points every meeting? Did they skip meetings? How did 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:25.840 they do it? 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:28.200 You know, that's kind of what my view would I 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:29.720 would have liked to see a fifty on the first 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:31.920 one and then wait two or three months. I think 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.880 in September, unless the data comes in so weak, they 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:36.920 do twenty five and then push the next one off 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:38.960 to la after the election. I think a fifty in 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:41.520 September if it really sparks a big equity rally or 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:45.160 something will be troublesome. They want to not reignite inflation, 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:47.800 so to me, we get twenty five and then they 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.440 wait a month or two, and it's really going to 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:51.840 be dependent on the data. I think the data is 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:53.839 going to turn out weak and justify more cuts, but 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:54.320 it might not. 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:56.760 What do you think of the corporate credit market. I 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:59.839 was looking at at high yield spreads yesterday and I 0:04:59.880 --> 0:05:02.320 know that they rose, and I get that, but compared 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:05.080 to other events, it's still so calm. 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:08.800 Yeah, I think, you know, credit really isn't the valuation story, 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:12.680 particular investment grade credit. Right The companies are great across 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:14.880 the board, there's still cashual, the economy is still growing 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:17.320 to some degree, so it makes sense to me that spread. 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:19.800 It's widened a little bit in sympathy. I am starting 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:21.760 to watch though, if the Russell two thousand rolls over, 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:23.480 because that, to me is a good proxy for what's 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:26.080 going on in high yield. What really did encourage me 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:28.680 yesterday we had some selling pressure on high yield, but 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:31.240 the ETFs behaved very well. What I don't like is 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:34.039 when you see the ETFs start trading at a big 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:36.680 discount to NAV. That to me tells me there's an 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:39.680 overwhelming amount of selling pressure. We didn't see that yesterday. 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:41.400 Clearly're not seeing it today as the market does well. 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:44.160 That's my one trigger to watch is how the ets 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:47.479 behave relative to NAV. And if they do well, that's 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.839 healthy and we will get a small correction credit spreads. 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:51.920 You have to with equities down here, but there is 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:53.400 no credit problem this time around. 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:56.800 What are you seeing ETF flows? Let's get your attention. 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:59.840 These days again, just this continued buying into the kind 0:05:59.880 --> 0:06:02.640 of riskier end of equities. You know, no one's giving 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:04.240 up on the tech trade, no one's really giving up 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:06.880 on the AI trade. And so every time I look 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:09.680 and we see these selloffs, I'm thinking, Okay, maybe we 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:11.680 got de risking. And what I think we've been doing 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:14.280 is getting degrossing, which to me is people taking off 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:16.640 longs and shorts so that sometimes shows up as rotation, 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:18.600 and I think people are taking off some of these 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:21.159 more lever trades, the selling of options, et cetera. But 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:23.240 we really haven't seen anyone say I want out of 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:25.400 this market. There's this real belief I've got to hang in, 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:27.839 and that's what I'm waiting for. Something that changes there. 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:29.919 The only thing that I thought was neat. I'm starting 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:32.240 to watch the Chinese stock market again. I actually kind 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:34.000 of like FXI for the first time in a while. 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:37.840 In the ETF front, Well, what's your level of confidence 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:42.360 that we get that kind of event, that capitulation, I 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:43.080 mean event. 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:46.400 I think it's reasonably high. It's you know, and part 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:48.320 of it like last Wednesday, right, we were up five 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.240 hundred on the Nasdaq last Wednesday as the FED was speaking, 0:06:51.240 --> 0:06:53.480 I didn't see what justified that, So there was very 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.000 little liquidity that sucked people in. I think it helped 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:59.680 set up for the Thursday, Friday, Monday trade. And here 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:02.160 again and we're kind of rallying. Everyone seems too excited. 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:05.840 There's no real fear, and the odds are again. I 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.800 think people are much more cautious on the earnings front, right, 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:11.120 and people aren't getting the free pass that something comes 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:13.560 on that and I really am very nervous that we've 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:15.920 been overstating the economic growth and we're going to see 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:17.680 some weak data. So that's I guess my bed is 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.240 we get a data and earning sprint that triggers another 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:22.560 round of selling pressure and people are too long ones Again. 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:25.080 I said, you're looking at China. How about the nie 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:28.120 K index? Our friends in JAPANO crazy couple of days? 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.440 Yeah, man, yeah, And I do think that's when. One 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:34.680 problem we've been talking about for ages is this full liquidity. 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:37.960 I've been trying to term it, and these markets seem 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:39.920 liquid because the screens are all priced, but it's all 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:43.400 very algo driven. There's no real support at any given time, 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:45.240 and you can have these big moves. It's you know 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:47.280 now that summer, if you go snork me or something, 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:48.600 you see a school of fish and you put your 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:52.000 hand near the fish, they disappear. They immediately recongregate. And 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:53.880 this reminds me of the sort of pattern that we 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.600 saw in around the financial crisis, these air pockets where 0:07:56.760 --> 0:08:00.000 something's trading normally moves five percent, that starts trading normally 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:02.600 like WHOA, what happened to move five percent, and that 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:05.040 to me shapes us up more for a downside than 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:06.320 an upside. 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.920 So for the carry trade. So speaking of is that 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:12.720 how that winds up playing out, Like eventually there's even 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:15.440 more upside pressure on the end and then it just 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:16.840 blows out other positions. 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:21.520 Yeah, so you know, the carry trade defined the carry trade. 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:24.800 So in theory, I think people say you borrow in yen, 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:26.840 you keep it in yen, and you buy us. 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:27.320 Assets a catch. 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:30.160 I think to me, it's just more there was leverage 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:32.480 in the system, right, the carry trade. More traditionally you 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:35.920 would buy you fund yourself in yen and buy US treasuries. 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:38.320 Treasuries rally yesterday. I think there's a little bit of 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.000 a boogeyman sort of you know thing going on where 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:43.200 the carry trade is just a small part of this. 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:45.440 I think what it really is is people got over levered. 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.280 They went to full positions, they went aggressive end of stocks, 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:51.680 they bought leverage gtfs, they did all these ball selling strategies. 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:54.600 So I think it's leverage in the system, not a 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:56.080 specific yen carry trade. 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:57.640 So it's not like I just borrowed an end to 0:08:57.679 --> 0:08:58.480 bind Nvidia. 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.600 No, and you know there's the thing. What's the six 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:02.560 degrees of Kevin Bacon? 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:02.720 You? 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:06.480 So, I don't know about you, right, but I know 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:08.640 all sorts of people in this market. I can't find 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:11.360 anyone who admits to having the carry trade on before 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.120 this all started. So I think some of that's overstated. 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:16.800 I think this is really just good old fashioned leverage 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:20.120 and people borrowing and putting too much risk into the market. 0:09:20.280 --> 0:09:22.839 All right, Peter, great stuff. Really appreciate you coming in. 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:26.840 Peter Cheer, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joining 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.520 us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:35.440 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:39.040 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.839 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.079 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:49.199 Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:53.520 If we had some political news today, Vice President Harris 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:58.360 taps Minnesota Governor mister Walls to be her vice presidential 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:02.600 candidate on that ticket. Lord Davison joined this Bloomberg Politics editor. So, Laura, 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:06.880 what's the feeling within DC about the selection by VP Harris. 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:10.160 This is a little bit of a surprise pick. You know, 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:12.400 we've heard Wall's name come up, you know, as these 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:14.679 discussions had gone on over the past couple of weeks. 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:18.080 But Walls is someone who was relatively unknown just prior 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:22.160 to really Harris emerging as the Democratic standard bearer following 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:25.000 Biden's departure from the race. So, you know, he's a 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:28.240 very popular governor, you know in Minnesota, but not someone 0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:31.160 who's been on the national stage as much. But he 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.240 really emerged because he was sort of able to capture 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:37.240 on the zeitgeist to the moment he you know, kind 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:41.080 of coined the phrase weird now that that to sort 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:43.320 of as an insult to Republicans and their policies that 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:45.880 Harris and others have started using. And so he was 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:48.120 sort of able to be seen as someone who could 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:50.320 go on the attack but also you know, sort of 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.800 be relatable and likable to blue collar workers. 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:55.600 What does that mean then about how Kamala Harris feels 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:57.800 about Pennsylvania. 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:01.960 So it's clear from this from this decision, you know, 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:03.560 sort of the main other person she was looking at 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:06.960 was Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. He's also very popular in 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:08.760 his state and would have been sort of the best 0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:11.800 choice if she wants to make sure she wins Pennsylvania. 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:13.240 So either, you know, the kind of a couple of 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:17.800 takeaways here, she feels confident about her chances outside of Pennsylvania, 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.120 that there's you know, multiple ways to win the win 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:23.200 the race. But also Shapiro had some negatives. You know, 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.600 he was very staunchly pro Israel, something that you know 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:30.720 is a divisive issue among Democrats and one of the 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:32.840 things that sort of her allies pointed out, you know, 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.160 after this decision was made that it was Walls she 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:37.800 had more of a personal rapport with, so that was 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.000 something that she was looking at very closely. Plus he 0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:43.880 also had a record in Minnesota that had more middle 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:47.840 class wins, so things like free lunches for school children, 0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:52.360 expanding paid leave. Shapiro has less experience as a governor, 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:54.800 he's only been in office for two years, has a 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:56.959 little bit more of a mixed record, you know, for 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.640 for Democrats. For Walls here kind of helps her shore 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:00.600 up the agressive base. 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:06.760 Does this pick say anything about how Kamala Harris wants 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:10.080 to run this campaign in terms of being more of 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.040 a centrist versus appealing maybe more to the liberal part 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:16.760 of the Democratic Party. What do you think, Yeah, so. 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.800 Walls is someone who does appeal on a policy level 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.079 two progressives. You know, he has, you know, someone who 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:25.800 comes from rural Minnesota. You know, the district that he 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:28.679 represented when he was in the House is now representative 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.720 represented by a Republican. But his values and sort of 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.560 the issues that he champions are much more sort of 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:38.360 the progressive wing, you know, things like paid family leave 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:41.960 and uh you know, you know, expanding you know, uh, 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:46.760 student loans and student loan forgiveness. Rather, Shapiro is much 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:49.480 more moderate, much more business friendly. Uh so this is 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:51.640 sort of you know, an interesting uh you know mix here. 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.240 But because he does have those Midwestern roots, he is 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:56.360 from a rural area. He is a someone who you know, 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:59.240 has been a gun owner that has become much more 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:02.840 a vocal about you know, gun control in recent years. 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:04.640 He has the sort of mix of he's able to 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:07.719 you know, not alien enate either the moderate side or 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:08.920 the progressive side of the party. 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:14.360 Terry Haynes a Pangaea said this was Harris's first negative. 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.520 He didn't like it. He was basically saying like this 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:20.240 was a safe pick. It showed that she's really worried 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.680 about the campaign. Is anyone in the in the zeitgeis 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:27.800 that you're talking to sort of saying that, yes. 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:30.520 I mean there is sort of a different schools of 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:32.600 thought here, but that you know that Walls was someone 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.560 that wasn't going to offend anybody, and so therefore he's safe. 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:38.320 But he may also not have the same upside potential 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:40.400 that you know, someone like Shapiro. Had you know, Shapiro 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:43.440 on the ticket, the chances of winning Pennsylvania and therefore 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.120 potentially the whole race went up, But he also has 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:47.920 more negatives here. So this is she was sort of 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:50.960 taking the path of these resistance on this pick versus 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:54.120 someone you know like Shapiro or even Mark Kelly, who 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:56.760 you know had some clashes with labor unions in the past, 0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:59.280 so that it was sort of another issue why his 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:00.199 name didn't write. 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.559 All right, well, thank you so much, we appreciate it. 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:06.760 It's definitely a crazy time. And also, you know, you 0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:08.840 have such a short amount of time with that Lord 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:12.040 Davison Bloomberg Politics editor joining us, but you know, so 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:13.439 truncated and. 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:15.079 Now they hit the road like immediately, I mean, I 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:18.360 think seven swing states in five days or something along 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:19.720 the line. So they're gonna be hitting the road. And 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.160 obviously former President Trump and Jadie Vans are out there 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.840 as well, so it's be relatively short period of time 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:27.960 till we get to election day. 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:32.040 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.760 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.840 Broud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:42.200 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:14:42.760 --> 0:14:46.000 It's Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We are broadcasting to you live 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.360 from Interactive Broker Studio right here in Midtown Manhattan. You 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:52.840 can also check us on YouTube. Don't miss us there. 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.360 So to get a big perspective on the market, if 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:57.880 you're a long term investor, what do you do over 0:14:57.920 --> 0:14:59.920 the last you know, forty eight hours in the market. 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.200 This is when I get like my financial guy sending 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:04.560 me the email of like, just so you know, this 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:07.000 is what happened, this is what we can expect. So 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:08.920 how do you do that? Well. Margie Patetel is senior 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.840 portfolio manager at all Spring's Global Investments and she joins 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:16.240 us now on Zoom from Boston. Massachusetts. Margie, what do 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:18.080 you make of the last twenty four hours? Is this 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:21.080 our forty eight? Is this a regime shift, a real 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.880 paradigm shift, or is it still stay on message, stay 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:25.400 on trend. 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:28.480 I think it's still the saying things. 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.080 Large cap stocks are still going to be the place 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:32.360 to be for the best to be here. 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:34.400 I think what happened is after. 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:37.160 A few quarters where the meg seven or the dozen 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.760 largest stocks reported better than expected, earning a second the 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:43.800 market of real boosting confidence, and this time we had 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:46.200 really sort of mixed results where some of the companies 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.360 reported results that were frankly disappointing, and that took away 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.200 market conference. At a time when you have stock prices 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:54.280 at their peak, you have concerned about what the FED 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.160 is going to do. Data says the economy slowing down. 0:15:57.200 --> 0:15:58.600 So I think that's what we had. It's just a 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.960 real short term stay down s andp down nine percentage, 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.840 nastack down twelve thirteen ish, and really just a short 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:09.560 term correction that's almost played out. We'll probably have a 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:11.800 little bit more and I think we'll go up for 0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:12.600 the rest of the year. 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:15.560 So Margie, to the extent that we do go up 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:17.840 for the rest of the year. Is tech going to 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:20.880 continue to lead this market or if we've seen some 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:24.080 kind of rotation that is of note. 0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:26.920 I don't think we'll see much of our rotation because 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:30.400 when you look at the economic growth level, what you 0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:32.920 think the econome will grow at for the next few quarters, 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:35.280 I think it'll be rather low, you know, a percent 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:38.280 and a half something like that. So that says you 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:40.560 still have to stick with those sectors and have above 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.240 average growth, which again would be check in particular some 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:47.240 other sectors, but primarily check. Especially when a lot of 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:49.960 these stalks have had such a big correction, they're really 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:52.560 priced more or less in the middle of their value range. 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:54.960 So if the armies go up, we think that these 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:56.080 stalks can go up too. 0:16:56.840 --> 0:16:59.120 So I guess this is a by the dip kind 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:02.760 of setup for you, Yes. 0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:05.800 Sort of, especially some of those names have had big corrections. 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:09.560 But it's interesting when you although people talk about the correction, 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.440 when you look at the indexes standard for his nasdak 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:18.080 Dal Jones, those indexes are all still up very attractively 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:21.280 year to date, mid to high single digit for a 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:23.800 little and halfway through the year, So that says that's 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:26.640 really on track to be an above average long term 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:28.280 rate of return for stocks. 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:29.520 Certainly not a disaster. 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:32.000 And even if you look at something like in Nvidio, 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:34.560 which I think is down forty percent of its peak, 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:38.359 it's still one hundred percent year to date, So it 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:41.679 isn't as if we're having a real unwinding, you know, 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:46.520 two thousand type Internet bubble meltdown, a permanent impairmid I 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.480 think this is just a short term correction typical in summer, 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:52.000 and then we'll see the market move ahead and the 0:17:52.000 --> 0:17:52.680