WEBVTT - Surveillance: Fed Moving Closer to Normalization, Sinche Says 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:04.160 Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:07.640 their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:12.240 of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:28.280 independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:32.400 I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:37.480 insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:42.479 Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:51.720 of course on the Bloomberg. Right now, let's bring in Robertson. 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:54.160 She's with Amber's Pure Pont Bob. We've been talking through 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:57.480 the morning about where we are. Is it a good 0:00:57.480 --> 0:01:02.880 time to take advantage of the volatility that's coming or 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:07.880 is that a risky business? Pros love movement in the market, 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:11.600 that's where you make money. Things have been quiet supposedly. 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:13.840 Is it going to be more volatile into the end 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:15.720 of the year. I think we are going to see 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:19.479 significant increases in volatility as we go forward. I think 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:23.120 a couple of things are driving at One is obviously 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:25.319 the potential that the FED will finally high rates, and 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:28.880 that always tends to create some volatility. Uh. Second is 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:32.080 we have not only the election here. We have discussions 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:35.440 about Greek fiscal policy coming up later this year with 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:38.600 the EU potential there. We have a big referendum in 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:42.880 Italy coming up about the future governance there and what 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:47.720 that implies for for reforms going forward. We have ongoing 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:51.080 reform processes in a number of places Brazil, around the world. 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.800 So I think there are some catalyst as we go 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:55.560 into the latter part of the year. And of course 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:58.440 the central banks, I think is another big one. I 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:02.279 think central banks really are beginning to push back against 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:04.880 this notion that they can continue to solve all the 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:07.080 world's problem. David wants to go big and wide. Let 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:09.520 me go you right now. Is there a Monday trade 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:12.080 from Robert Sinch? I mean, is there something that just 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:16.959 screams because you know, you do some great obscure stuff. Yen, luony, 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:19.839 luoni yen, and that is there something that sticks out 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:23.320 right now? You know? We we we talked to a 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:27.400 couple of weeks ago about UM the movement down in 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:29.679 the pace SO and we thought that that to take 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:32.720 out the oil play. UM. You know, we could be 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:36.680 um short Canada long pace SO or short Russian Ruble 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:39.960 short pace so. Um, you know, I think we've had 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:42.640 a pretty good rebound now in the Mexican pace, so 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.400 from around twenty down to under nineteen. I think that 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:48.600 trade is is played out for now. I still think 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:51.399 we're going higher in the dollar, um. And I think 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:53.760 we could see you know, dollar yen higher, we could 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.880 see euro dollar lower. So I do think this is 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.480 an environment where the dollar is going to you better, 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:03.639 and we should look at the dollar versus a basket 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:06.000 of foreign currencies. Right, Tom mentioned this is a Monday, 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:08.440 a chance to regroup after what happened last week. Let's 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:10.880 talk about the flash crash, what we saw in Sterling 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:13.640 a few days hence. Now, what's your reaction to what 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.000 happened there? What? What? What conclusion should we draw from 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.160 what happened there? You know, in the foreign exchange world, 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:22.240 there is this because it's an over the counter market. Uh. 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:24.760 And there is this strange time between the clothes in 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:29.040 New York and the real opening time in Asia. Um. Now, 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.560 this was twenty years ago when I used to manage money, 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:33.880 but we used to leave overnight orders to go into 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:39.160 the Asian session. We would specifically limit no transactions between 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:42.200 five pm and seven pm New York time, because we 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:45.480 knew there was tremendous illiquidity going into this New Zealand 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:49.400 Australian marketplace. That's when we had this volatility again the 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.120 other night. And uh, you know, I would have thought 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:54.480 the markets had grown up from that, but there is 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.360 still that awkward period between the New York close and 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.080 the Singapore Hong Kong open when you can off and 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:02.520 get these very volatile moves in markets. And I think 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:04.160 that's what we saw the other Now, your sense there 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:06.920 is it was a liquidity issue, nothing nothing more. I 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.040 think it was a liquidity issue. We may find out 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:11.720 in some earnings reports that there was some errors made 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:15.080 somewhere along the way, um, but clearly it was. It 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:18.000 was such a disorderly move that you have to chalk 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:21.960 this up to illiquidity and probably an error that somebody 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.400 will will fess up to at some point in the future. 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:26.640 I'm embarrassed, Bob that I didn't bring this up earlier 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:30.280 this morning. Let's cover it right now. I noticed obviously 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:33.960 weak sterling, but just in the last week week euro 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:37.719 as well. It's almost like a little wind shifting here. 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:44.760 Sterling dollar is cable, euro, Sterling is across the channel fuel, 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:47.839 which do you look at? Which matters here? Well, I 0:04:47.880 --> 0:04:51.600 think again this becomes is this a just a move 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:55.080 down for sterling or is this a move up for 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:58.400 the dollar? You know, we've seen dollar yen back up 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:01.040 above one oh three, it held that one hundred level 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:03.200 back at one oh three. We've seen euro dollar come 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:07.680 below one twelve. We've seen sterling obviously move lower. At 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:10.880 what point do we start talking about a stronger dollar 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:13.320 rather than just a weak cable. And I think we're 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:15.320 at that point round right now. You know, if you 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:19.240 look at at five year interest rate differentials around the world, 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:22.480 you know, five year swap rate in the US relative 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:26.440 to five year swap rates in in other major countries, 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:29.479 and you wait that by the waitings of the Dollar 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:32.880 index at d x Y, this is the widest differential 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:36.599 in favor of the dollar this year. So quietly, over 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:39.599 the last couple of weeks, interest rate differentials really have 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:42.839 shifted back in favor of the dollar. And suddenly it's 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:46.120 the dollar moving higher rather than sterling moving lower. But 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:50.279 then the euro goes with ster What I'm in, what 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:54.839 I'm seeing as an amateur, is euros becoming attached to sterling. 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:58.200 Is that a wrong assessment. I think it's more than 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:01.320 the dollar is moving higher and the euro actually I 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.839 think is is holding up better um than I would 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:07.159 have expected it. And David, this is really important, and 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:10.560 this is the compensating factors of different currency pairs. One 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:12.880 of the biggest mistakes I see in for an exchange 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:15.880 analysis is we don't look at them as pair traits. 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:19.559 And there's a set of pair trades. Of course, David, 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:23.600 you had memorized permutations and combinations. I mean, I mean, 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:27.080 do you know that David's from Brooklyn and Bob he 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:31.960 learned permutations and combinations growing kale on his roof because 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:36.400 he knows there's like a hybrid lens, hybrid lens of kale. 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.160 It's the same way in foreign exchange. David, I have 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:41.000 a modern day Mendel. Let me ask you more about 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:42.680 the pace. So, as I mentioned, you had this great 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:45.719 note Mexico and oil not connected here. You know, we 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:47.800 had the debate last night, we've been tracking the pay 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:50.799 so with Donald Trump's pull rings, with Hillary Clinton's pullings, 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:52.160 you have sort of a novel look at what we're 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:55.039 seeing there. Yeah, I mean I think that you know 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:58.760 there are there are two different time frames to look at, right, 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:02.320 And I think that UM, the rebound and oil had 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:05.880 not been showing up in the pay so UM primarily 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:09.400 because of this uncertainty about the election outcome. UM. And 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:11.920 as we pull that away, you sort of get back 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:15.760 to fundamentals and and uh, you know, in the short run, 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:19.880 there is so little going on in these markets these days, 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:23.520 and so few drivers in the foreign exchange markets that 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:27.240 traders are willing to to basically jump on anything that's moving. 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:31.960 And so I think the notion of this um, you know, 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:35.880 Trump victory probability and movements in the pace so really 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:37.920 caught on in the markets, and it becomes a self 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:40.680 fulfilling prophecy, right if people think that other people are 0:07:40.680 --> 0:07:44.040 going to trade dollar pace so based on the election movements, 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:46.800 and they'll start doing it, and it feeds on itself, 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:49.680 and that works until it doesn't. And I have a 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:52.360 feeling that you know, obviously over the next three weeks 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:54.480 we're gonna find out that there are four weeks that 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:57.239 it doesn't work anymore because we've we passed the election. 0:07:57.560 --> 0:07:59.640 But I think we're starting to do that. And I 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:02.320 think that part of what the movement and the big 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:04.400 movement up in the Peso in the last a week 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:07.560 or so has been a realization that, hey, you know, 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:10.240 energy prices have gone up, oil prices have gone up. 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.720 We've completely forgot about this relationship with oil and now 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:15.240 I think there's a bit of a catch up move 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:19.720 going on. Robert Sinch with this amorous Pierpunt updateus on 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:24.680 the institution that is this Federal Reserve system. Mr Trump 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:28.760 wants to go after this institution and that would President 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:32.680 Trump change the FED? You know, I think one of 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:36.040 the concerns, you know, I have a couple of concerns 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:38.960 about central banks. One that I think they've played their 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:41.440 hands as far as they can and they really are 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:44.800 running out of options and anything that's really going to 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:49.559 affect the economies and inflation going forward. The second is 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:53.520 this little bubbling up of intrusion on central bank independence. 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:55.959 We've seen a little bit of it in Japan where 0:08:56.400 --> 0:08:59.640 people around Prime Minister Abbe have been making comments about 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:01.959 how the ee O J needs to continue to take 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:05.800 more action. Um, I'm not sure what's really left for 0:09:05.840 --> 0:09:08.600 them to do. That's a big demographic problem they're facing 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:12.600 in Japan. Uh. We've seen Prime Minister May in the 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:15.800 UK make a couple of pretty shocking statements. One of 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:19.720 them was about the side effects of central bank actions. 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:22.400 I'm not exactly sure what the implication of that was. 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:24.920 And now I think, you know, we we certainly saw 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:27.840 last night that that Mr Trump said he would instruct 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.640 you know, a attorney general, an attorney general to look 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:35.080 into Hillary Clinton's I mean, this is kind of unprecedented stuff. 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.599 You wonder what he would instruct the Treasury secretary to 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:41.480 do about monetary policy. So I think there is this 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:44.760 concern that after holding up monetary policy is the real 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:49.640 savior for the global economies, that now that they're running 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.800 on empty uh and fiscal policy is nowhere to be seen, 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:56.480 that they start encroaching more on monetary policy. Um, and 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.840 I think it's a concern about central bank independence going forward. 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:02.480 Had stand Fisher, the vice chairs speak yesterday, Janet Yellen 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:04.440 speaking at the Boston FED later this week, do you 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:07.000 think that the Yelling Fed could be doing more to 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:10.880 emphasize this point that it is not subject to political winds. 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:13.280 You you hear it from the outside, you here economists 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:16.640 defending it, but um, we haven't heard explicitly from a 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.440 chair Janet Yellen, at least not not explicitly and not 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.200 in quantity. A lot here about the independence of the Fed. 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:25.160 You know. Knowing some people who have been with the FED, 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:28.400 my guess is they're pretty baffled by this. I think 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:31.199 they're sitting there going, wait a second, we're the only 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.520 ones who have been acting here. Um, we are. We 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:37.920 are not political in our decision process, although they've been 0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:41.520 accused of that, UM. And I think that that they 0:10:41.559 --> 0:10:44.559 get a little surprised at these things even bubble up 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:47.880 like this. Um, we'll probably get a bit defensive about it, 0:10:47.960 --> 0:10:51.600 circle the wagons as they normally do. UM. But I 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:53.480 think part of this is they they brought it on 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:57.880 themselves by their rhetoric of talking about about normalizing policy 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.199 and then not doing it. A whole seg inn of 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:03.240 the American population that is wondering why they saved and 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:06.679 why they're not getting any return on those savings for retirement. 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:09.679 So I think a lot of of of tensions are 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.240 bubbling up and again because fiscal policy around the world 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:17.000 has been so non participatory in this process, what do 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:20.040 people do. They keep focusing back on the monetary authorities 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:24.320 around the world. UM as as miracle workers, and I 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:26.560 think they need to keep pushing back and saying they've 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:31.000 done what they can do. I I wonder as you 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.360 look ahead, there's so much scuttle but here that Leo 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:36.199 Brander might be a Hillary Clinton Treasury search differences this 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:37.880 can preclude that from happening. Do you think if if 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.640 Hillary Clinton would be elected? No, I don't think so. 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:44.600 I think that that, um, you know, there there may 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:46.959 be some concern about you used to worry about movements 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.360 between the Fed and Wall Street, now that they have 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:52.440 movements between the Fed and the Treasury. But I think 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:56.320 that that once somebody leaves the Fed, um, you know, 0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:59.320 their I D doesn't work at the doors anymore. Uh, 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:02.480 they can't get ready access. So I don't think that's 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:06.160 a tremendous issue. I think you know, clearly there was. 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:09.880 It was a very political appointment, uh to the to 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.960 to have her participating in the in the federal reserve system. 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:15.880 So you know, I think that that, you know, that 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:17.960 might actually be a little bit healthier in terms of 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:21.760 re establishing the the the political nature of the fat 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:24.600 Bob same, Thank you so much with the MS pure Pint, 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:28.079 greatly appreciate your attendant's unclosed. Good, you have your good 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:44.280 to be here here, David. My favorite tweet last night 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:46.000 was from a woman. Well there was the one for 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:48.920 Jason over at the Journal who said, my television just 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:51.560 threw itself out the window. Let's just go with that 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:56.120 thing now as we bringing Greg Greg Horizon Investments. Your 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:59.680 your notes have been absolutely fabulous. And to keep the 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:03.000 base ball thing going, Mr Vlier, Mr Trump needed a 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:04.959 home run and he hit a double. Was it a 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:07.520 legit double off the wall or was it a ground 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:11.240 rule double in Yankee Stadium? Hi? Tim, good morning. Now. 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:13.000 I think it was a legit double. I think he 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.880 really energized his bass, which she had to do. They're 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:19.000 going to turn out if it's windy and raining in Ohio. 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.520 They're turning out, and I think you know he spoke 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:24.440 to them. Did he add any new support? Well, that's 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:26.640 the issue. I'm not sure he did. Let me bring 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:28.840 it over to Secretary Clinton. The f T had a 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.600 great chart the other day of a certain blue collar 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:36.920 county in Ohio. She's got to get marginal voters with 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:41.320 the weekend she had. Can she do that? Yeah? I 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:44.120 think she can. I think that, uh, I would say 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:46.800 the weekend Trump had. You know, I'm not sure he's 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.640 going to bring a lot of those voters either. You 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.120 know that if you step back just for a second 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:54.679 and look at the forest rather than the trees, I mean, 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:58.640 the forest is there's been massive defections among Republicans who 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:01.800 were really worried. Now they not only would lose the Senate, 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:04.480 but they might even lose the House as well. So 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.040 you've got a really anxious party. I'm not sure one 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:11.839 pretty good debate performance by Trump is going to change that. Greg, 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:13.839 what do you make of the degree to which that tape, 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:16.600 which was released on on Friday afternoon published by The 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:18.640 Washington Post, played a role in this debate. I look 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:20.440 back on what happened last night, you can almost cut 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:23.680 the debate into There was the first thirty minutes, which 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:25.720 I would say ex very contentious, and it played a 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:28.040 major role there. This isn't something that Secretary Clint came 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:30.480 back to though at the end of the debate, a 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:32.680 sigh of relief from the Trump campaign that this is 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:35.400 now at least in part behind him. What do you 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:37.440 make of how it played out in the debate? It's 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:41.880 in part behind him, assuming there are no additional disclosures, 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:44.360 and I am not willing to make that prediction. I 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:47.840 think that there could be more bombshells for both of them, 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:51.160 with her from wiki leaks, with him with taxes. I'm 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.520 not sure The New York Times has released all that 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.280 they have, and of course with him and other women. 0:14:56.600 --> 0:15:00.720 So we've got another month of this cringe inducing campaign 0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:03.239 to go, and I think there's going to be more disclosures. 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:07.480 You mentioned the defections on the Republican side. What was 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:11.760 it about this tape, about these comments in particular that 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:15.440 were so distasteful? Yes, the vulgarity, for sure. But but 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:17.360 there will be those who say this is nothing new. 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:19.880 We we we knew at least what Donald Trump was like, 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.320 if not what he is like. Why why did this 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.760 happen now? Well, I say two things. Number one, what 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.560 do you describe doing as a felony? Last time I checked? 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:31.800 Number Two, I think that a lot of Republicans you said, 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.240 oh my god, he's talked about growing women. I think 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:36.800 they're real concern, as I said earlier, is that they 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:39.640 could lose Congress. I mean they're looking at potentially a 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:43.320 really ugly election. I think that motivated a lot of 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:47.800 the defections. Help me here, Greg, with with all that 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:51.640 we've observed in the in the final twenty days of 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.400 the election. There was a whisper of a moment last 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:59.160 night where Secretary Clinton shifted from the dance over to 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.880 I will represent all Americans. And I turned to someone 0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:05.440 who was watching the debate with and said, that's the 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:09.400 first moment where she's speaking to all the voters and 0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:13.040 not just the usual constituencies. Did you sense that or 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:17.720 does that wit? October nine? Yeah, yeah, I think Tom 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.080 that in the last week or two, when you make 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:23.480 your closing pitch, the candidates usually get a lot more 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:29.600 bipartisan tiid and cue the music. Better Angels, We're not 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:31.480 We're not there yet. I think we got a waste 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:34.680 to go before we hear that kind of talk. David 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:36.960 to put it in the tweet I love last night 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.880 as Mr Velier speaks to the Better Angels. Was the 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.520 woman who said, look, it's like Game of Thrones. You 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.320 tell the kids go do something, you close the door, 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.160 you turn a volume down, and you have your thumb 0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:51.280 the revote control if the kids come in the room. 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.200 That's what the beginning of the debate was like last night. Wondering, 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.680 wondering what was going to happen. Greg talk about the 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.360 undecided nous in the room, I mean, it's it's it 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:02.880 seems this campaign has gone on for so long, many 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:05.400 many months. Now you have a room of undecided voters. 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:07.719 I'd say that the voters who were on stage with 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:10.280 the two candidates didn't actually ask many questions. I think 0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:11.840 that the two candidates took a lot of care of 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:13.800 a lot of the back and forth themselves here. But 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.440 how real is the undecided factor right now? I don't 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:21.359 think it's that big anymore. Maybe there's still five of 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:24.560 the electorate that could be swayed, but it's dwindling and 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:26.960 I'm not sure. You know, one of the big takeaways 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:29.480 from last night is that I'm not sure they moved 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:33.160 the needle that much. You know, Trump again really rallied 0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:36.520 his base. They're motivated to vote for him. But I 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:40.640 think among these undecided there's one issue, if I might, 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:43.479 there's one issue that still has to be addressed, and 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:46.480 that's pro growth. I've been harping on this for a 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:50.199 long time. I think that her agenda more regulations and 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.639 you know, more higher taxes, is not pro growth. I 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:57.560 think if Trump realized that he could make some inroads there. 0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:01.040 Does he have a campaign staff? I say this, folks, 0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:03.600 I mean you know, full disclosure. I was outside the 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:06.840 Trump Tower yesterday and Greg, it was such a zoo 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:09.479 with a naked cowboy and the rest of it. We 0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:12.480 we went across the street and around it because we 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:17.000 didn't want aerrabs to see it and and help me here. 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:20.639 Does he have a cane pick campaign staff? Well, you 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:22.280 look at some of the key states and you have 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:25.159 to talk about the ground game. It's kind of our cane. 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:28.080 But those of us who are really into this wouldn't 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.800 tell you that in a lot of key states like Florida, 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:34.480 he had a bunch of amateurs working for him, poorly funded, 0:18:34.760 --> 0:18:37.800 have never really worked on campaigns. Her ground game is 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.439 really good and in a close election that could be 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.720 worth half a point half half a half point, yeah, 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:46.399 half a points important in a close state. There was 0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:49.720 a moment during the debate when my jaw dropped Martha 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:53.919 rat It's asking about Syria, and what emerged was a 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:57.720 real disconnect between one Donald Trump and one Mike Pence. 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.879 She pointed out that they've said two different things about 0:19:00.920 --> 0:19:03.960 what the course of action should be in that country 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:08.560 with regard to to Russia's participation. Uh. And Donald Trump 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:11.119 allowed that it was something that he and Mike Pence 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:14.080 had had not discussed this, I said, last hour, five 0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:15.760 days in here, these two have been running mates and 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:18.159 and is it how surprising is it to you here 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:20.120 that this isn't something that's come up. I think it's 0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:22.000 a big deal, David. I mean, first of all, I 0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:25.160 think over the weekend Pence was a gassed over that 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:29.639 tape and the sexual stuff. He's a conservative Christian and 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:32.400 I think that Trump threw him under the bus last 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:36.479 night on Syria very dismissively. And currently so there's not 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:38.320 a lot a lot of love between the two. There's 0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:40.760 been rumoring and Pence might leave the ticket. I don't 0:19:40.760 --> 0:19:43.439 think he's going anywhere because if he endures this for 0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:47.240 another month, he becomes one of the front runners. Well 0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:49.480 that's right where I wanted to go. In the final question, 0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:52.920 we have Mr Villiers, is Mr Pence and Mr Ryan 0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:56.680 and the others. Are they just positioning themselves for Greg 0:19:56.760 --> 0:20:00.840 Villiers New Hampshire primary to come. I think if you 0:20:00.880 --> 0:20:02.880 gave most of them truth sir, and they would tell 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:06.800 you that They're all already thinking past the selection. They're 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:09.679 thinking about the next one. Pence is going to be 0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:13.280 a player, Ryan Rubio, maybe Cruise. A big cast of 0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:16.680 characters I think are secretly rooting for Trump to lose. 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.159 Great briefing, and I'm sure we'll have much more. Greg Villier, 0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:23.760 your notes are more than valuable. Folks. Again, we got 0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:27.600 many emails, Mr. Vliers, paperwork we do. We protect the 0:20:27.640 --> 0:20:31.720 copyright of all of our guests. Please contact Arizing Investments 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:36.400 for the uh, the the chiseled granite slabs that Mr 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:47.480 puts out every moment. Who you put your trust in matters. 0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:52.000 Investors have put their trust in independent registered investment advisors 0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:56.360 to the tune of four trillion dollars. Why they see 0:20:56.400 --> 0:21:00.160 their role is to serve, not sell. That's why all 0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:02.880 schwab is committed to the success of over seven thousand 0:21:02.960 --> 0:21:08.040 independent financial advisors who passionately dedicate themselves to helping people 0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:12.280 achieve their financial goals. Learn more and find your independent 0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:25.520 advisor dot com. It is wonderful to pause now after 0:21:25.560 --> 0:21:28.440 the dropeth in gold of a week or so ago. 0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:32.639 James Steele writes brilliant notes for HSBC on the bigger 0:21:32.680 --> 0:21:36.360 picture on gold nut, the minutia of companies and all that, 0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:39.600 but just the bigger view, James, it's Golden Week in 0:21:39.800 --> 0:21:43.879 China and then China comes back. You notice a pulse 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.560 of demand in India with all the ballet of China. 0:21:47.720 --> 0:21:52.679 Is there a pulse to acquire gold in China? I 0:21:52.760 --> 0:21:58.080 think yes, There's been a considerable decline between when they 0:21:58.480 --> 0:22:02.560 went on Golden Week and now. So merchants and traders 0:22:02.600 --> 0:22:05.080 as they have come back to their desks, uh, and 0:22:05.240 --> 0:22:08.080 back to their businesses this morning, will have been greeted 0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:13.000