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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just about that action also. All right, here

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Speaker 2: we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing in so spec I'm sitting it to cash touch time.

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Speaker 1: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 2: You want to and we are underway. Welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. I am your host, Evan Abrams, and

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Speaker 2: I am joined as always by my compadre Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 2: Best Bets Pod, Recap Pod, always here, always around, doing

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Speaker 2: these together. We are gonna talk. We're gonna talk about

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Speaker 2: this entire weekend of Divisional round football, go over each game,

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Speaker 2: and then we're gonna preview a FC championship, NFC Championship,

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Speaker 2: talk about the lines, games, kind of break down some

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Speaker 2: of the action. But first of all, Brandon, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I would probably call this the best weekend. Like you

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Speaker 2: always know you're gonna get the best games. Especially we've

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Speaker 2: talked about the margins sometimes in the wildcard round. This

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Speaker 2: one this one was good. This one was fun. We

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Speaker 2: had some comebacks, we had you know, some upsets. It

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Speaker 2: was fun.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought the weekend really delivered. We said this

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Speaker 3: was the best weekend in football. We still got the

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Speaker 3: National Championship tomorrow, and make sure you check out the

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Speaker 3: podcast for all the guys giving out picks for that

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Speaker 3: one college football. But man, all four games I felt

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Speaker 3: like lived up to I know the Chiefs ended up

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Speaker 3: winning by more than a score, but really drama all

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Speaker 3: the way down to the end. We got drama, high

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Speaker 3: drama on the spread on more than one of these

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Speaker 3: games coming down to an extra miss point here, Like

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Speaker 3: just from every standpoint, from a fans standpoint, from a

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Speaker 3: narrative standpoint, from a betting standpoint, like we checked every box.

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Speaker 3: We didn't get any blowouts. Games where I thought one

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Speaker 3: team would control, we had not control there. We had

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Speaker 3: cold weather, we had snow all day on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: It's a great point.

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Speaker 3: It feels like playoff football. It felt right, fellow, a

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Speaker 3: really fun weeknd of football.

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Speaker 2: Now you don't say it often where favorites don't exactly

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Speaker 2: cover every spread in a weekend, and you also get

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Speaker 2: the best quarterbacks and teams that advance so that you

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Speaker 2: can continue to see the best teams play, because sometimes

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Speaker 2: the issue is you get upsets. It happens in march,

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Speaker 2: maddness all the time, and then all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: you're sitting there with two teams you really don't want

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Speaker 2: to see play. That's just not what happened here. So

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Speaker 2: it's great that we had good action. And also some

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Speaker 2: of the good teams we want to see continue to

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Speaker 2: play will be there for the matchups. But let's let's

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Speaker 2: start at the top here, Baltimore and Buffalo. So Buffalo

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Speaker 2: wins this game twenty seven to five as a closing

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Speaker 2: one and a half point underdog at home. Total goes

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Speaker 2: over fifty one and a half. We had talked about

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Speaker 2: it on previous pods, but like the first time since

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Speaker 2: the late sixties that Buffalo had closed as a home

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Speaker 2: underdog in the playoffs. And right off the bat, we

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Speaker 2: see this game and Baltimore scores, then Buffalo scores, and

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Speaker 2: we say to ourselves, oh boy, this is gonna be

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Speaker 2: absolutely fantastic. We're gonna go back and forth. It's gonna

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Speaker 2: be drive after drive. We kind of thought what we

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Speaker 2: thought we would get out of Washington and Detroit. We

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Speaker 2: thought we were getting in this game. Then Lamar throws

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Speaker 2: an interception, Buffalo gets no points, but then Lamar has

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Speaker 2: the bad fumble, and honestly, after both of those drives,

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Speaker 2: first time this year, two giveaways for Lamar, first time

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Speaker 2: since the AFC title game against the Chiefs, and at

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Speaker 2: this point you say to yourselves, well, you know, I'm

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Speaker 2: not necessarily positive that Baltimore can overcome this. I mean,

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Speaker 2: at this point in the game, when you've seen the

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Speaker 2: two turnovers, what's your thought here?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I gotta be honest at this point, like,

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Speaker 3: let's be real. We all know how I feel about

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Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson. I've been betting on Baltimore. I had the

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Speaker 3: futures on Baltimore, but we all know how I feel

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Speaker 3: about Lamar and the MVPs and all Lamar discourse. I'm like, oh,

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Speaker 3: here we are again. I had Baltimore, I had them

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Speaker 3: in this game. I had the futures. I finally believed

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Speaker 3: in them, and it felt like Lamar was doing the

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Speaker 3: Lamar thing again. He had to feel that way in

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Speaker 3: halftime with the interception that was frankly terrible, overthrown by

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Speaker 3: like ten yards, just like a punt return catch for

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Speaker 3: the defender, and then fumble which was even worse, which

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Speaker 3: is fully Lamar's full trying to do too much. I thought,

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Speaker 3: easily the biggest play of the game. We'll come back

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Speaker 3: to that. At that point of the game, I'm not

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Speaker 3: feeling great. I'm not really feeling like Baltimore has a

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Speaker 3: lot of shot. Because we talked about this on the

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Speaker 3: pick before the game. I was on Baltimore, but I

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Speaker 3: wanted Baltimore because I liked them early in the game,

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Speaker 3: and I liked them big and protecting a lead, not

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Speaker 3: playing from behind, because that meant having to trust Lamar

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Speaker 3: and especially trusting the passing offense in the weather with

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Speaker 3: nose flowers. And let me be honest here to go

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Speaker 3: into the second half, credit where it's due. I thought

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Speaker 3: Lamar was brilliant for the second half. I thought that

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Speaker 3: he was really really good the Ravens in the second half.

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Speaker 3: Here their drive nine plays thirty five yards for field goal,

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Speaker 3: seven for eighty in a touchdown, six for twenty six.

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Speaker 3: And then that's where we got the Mark Andrews fumble.

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Speaker 3: Otherwise they were driving and probably gonna get some points again.

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Speaker 3: And then look the Ravens get the ball back down

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Speaker 3: eight on the twelve after holding penalty. You gotta go

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Speaker 3: get the touchdown. Lamar did the thing eight plays eighty

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Speaker 3: eight yards down the field. All Lamar making the plays,

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Speaker 3: keeping plays alive, gets them into the end zone, hits

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Speaker 3: Mark Andrews in the chest in the hands that he

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Speaker 3: catches ninety nine times out of one hundred. This is

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Speaker 3: the one out of one hundred. The season's over. So

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Speaker 3: where do we go with that? Because in the second half,

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Speaker 3: Lamar was great. The Ravens offense that ring number one

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Speaker 3: all season look the part in the second half. They

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Speaker 3: just made three big mistakes in this game. Well maybe

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Speaker 3: not three. In this game. They had three turnovers, and

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Speaker 3: they whiffed on two two point conversions. I didn't like

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Speaker 3: the first two point conversion. It was the right decision

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Speaker 3: to do it, but I didn't like the play, just

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Speaker 3: like a standard drop back for Lamar, like get a

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Speaker 3: moving do the thing. Even the second one, which was

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Speaker 3: a great play and work perfectly, you just got execute.

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Speaker 3: So it kind of comes down to it didn't really

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Speaker 3: feel this way in real time, but for me looking back,

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Speaker 3: it felt like a tail of two halves and it

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Speaker 3: felt like on the whole, Baltimore was the better team.

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Speaker 3: Pretty clearly by the stats, they were the better team.

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Speaker 3: But you gotta win the game and Buffalo won the game.

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Speaker 2: I think my issue so last year when they played

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs and we all yelled at each other and

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Speaker 2: said they needed to run it more. I think the

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Speaker 2: criticism this year kind of turns to not exactly you

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Speaker 2: should have run the ball more, which we can talk

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Speaker 2: about in a second, more just the play calls at

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Speaker 2: certain times. So like I think the biggest drive was

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Speaker 2: down fourteen to seven, They've got first and goal from

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Speaker 2: the two. They go Henry rush, then Lamar gets sacked,

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Speaker 2: Lamar in completion field goal. Like at that point, first

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Speaker 2: and goal from the two, no matter what happens, it

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Speaker 2: should be three Derick Henry runs. If it doesn't work, great,

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Speaker 2: that's it, Like you've done what you're supposed to do

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Speaker 2: to me. Then it becomes fourteen to ten. Then Buffalo

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Speaker 2: runs down the field. Now it's twenty one to ten.

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Speaker 2: Now you go into the half down double digits. Josh

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Speaker 2: is at this point thrown for sixty nine yards like

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Speaker 2: he's done nothing. You're down double digits because of turnovers.

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Speaker 2: Buffalo's three of three in the red zone. So I

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Speaker 2: just I think certain play calls like that, and you

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Speaker 2: mentioned the other one, like to me, I believe Derek

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Speaker 2: Henry had sixteen carries in this game. Think you ran

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Speaker 2: the ball thirty times, so I can't exactly yell it,

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Speaker 2: and you had one hundred and five yards after contact.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna yell at you for not running it

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Speaker 2: this year. I mean, maybe Derick Henry could have gotten

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Speaker 2: more love, but it's seven second half carries and that

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Speaker 2: final drive where he got no carries, you still scored

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Speaker 2: a touchdown. So I think this game from a Baltimore

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Speaker 2: point of view a little bit difficult to like put

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Speaker 2: the blame in different places. Aside from the fact you

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Speaker 2: missed a bunch of two point conversions, you lost a

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Speaker 2: turnover battle three nothing and very very clearly, whereas this

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Speaker 2: teams to win the turnover battle three or more forty

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Speaker 2: in three. I think it's forty one and three straight

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Speaker 2: up playoffs last twenty years, So it's just you're just

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Speaker 2: not gonna win those games. So I think it's a

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Speaker 2: very very difficult situation when you talk about, Okay, where

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Speaker 2: do we go from here in Baltimore, because I do

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Speaker 2: kind of think they changed the script up a little

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Speaker 2: bit and a lot went right, but you know, you

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Speaker 2: missed a few plays which happens.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it really is almost the perfect outcome for the discourse,

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Speaker 3: right because it's kind of a paint by numbers. You

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Speaker 3: can say what, whatever you thought before the game about

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Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson about the Ravens, you probably can reinforce that

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Speaker 3: what you think after the game, which is great for

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Speaker 3: this course and terrible for this course, depending on how

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Speaker 3: you feel about it. The biggest share that blame pie

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Speaker 3: has to be Mark Andrews. I'm sorry, but yeah, fumble,

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Speaker 3: punch out and the drop two point conversion, Like, it's

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Speaker 3: gotta be him. It's funny. I'm watching the game with

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Speaker 3: my dad and no, like two plays before that, Mark

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Speaker 3: Andrews got a fourth down and one QB sneak and

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Speaker 3: they picked up the first down on it. And I

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Speaker 3: comment to my dad watching, what are you doing? It's

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Speaker 3: fourth down, it's the fourth quarter, the seasons on the line.

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Speaker 3: You have Lamark Jackson and Derk hen Ween. You're putting

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Speaker 3: your tight end under center, And my dad goes, well,

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Speaker 3: you know, I trust him, He's got good hands. I

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Speaker 3: always trust Mark Andrews whatever he's doing. And then two

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Speaker 3: plays later he gets the fumble and then come at

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Speaker 3: the end of the game like, Look, you have to

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Speaker 3: trust Mark Andrews. He's gonna make those plays most of

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Speaker 3: the time. He just didn't today. That has to be

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Speaker 3: the blame, even if it just kind of fluky snowy

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Speaker 3: drop the ball sometimes, But that's that.

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Speaker 2: I just think it goes back to the play calling,

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Speaker 2: and you just said it again. I think there were

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Speaker 2: some odd play calls in this one. I'll give you

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Speaker 2: a stat which I tweeted out. Ravens have now lost

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Speaker 2: twenty six consecutive games straight up when trailing by ten

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Speaker 2: plus points at the half. Last win came back in

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Speaker 2: twenty twelve. Feels almost impossible. And now Lamar zero and

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Speaker 2: four in the playoffs when trailing at the half. So

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's been no comebacks. I believe he's three

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Speaker 2: and five in the playoffs. Now tough, you know, rode ahead.

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Speaker 2: Now we're not talking a lot about Buffalo, but we're

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Speaker 2: gonna talk about Buffalo in a little bit because they're

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Speaker 2: facing Kansas City and we're gonna go over that game.

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Speaker 2: But that's I mean, the only other thing I could

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Speaker 2: say here. Lamar twelve of fourteen in a clean pocket

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Speaker 2: in this game, two touchdowns, thirteen of fourteen with no

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Speaker 2: blitz two touchdowns. When he was blitzed five of eleven

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Speaker 2: with an interception, I just think clean pocket. He was

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Speaker 2: looking great, and other times he fumbled. He was a

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Speaker 2: mess and the turnovers did them in anything else before

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Speaker 2: we move on?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean like nose of flowers in this game.

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Speaker 3: For Lamar to not have his top receiver lost for

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Speaker 3: Shad Bateman for a bit also, and to leave them

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Speaker 3: down the field with not great weapons and missing your

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Speaker 3: top guy like that is that's the drive you dream of.

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Speaker 3: That's the thing we ask every one of these quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: to you and put the ball on the money in

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Speaker 3: the two point conversion, like you cannot ask any more

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Speaker 3: of Lamar. That's me saying that the Lamar critic that

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Speaker 3: said the whole game counts, and I tweeted this out.

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Speaker 3: The biggest play of the game was not the drop

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Speaker 3: two point conversion. Now it feels like it because it

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Speaker 3: happened at the end. The biggest play by far was

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Speaker 3: the Lamar Jackson fumble in the first half. First half counts,

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Speaker 3: all the points count. The Ravens are at the thirty

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Speaker 3: four of Buffalo. That fumble, giving the ball up and

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Speaker 3: giving it up in the backfield where it gets returned

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Speaker 3: nearly for a touchdown. Thankfully they only get a field

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Speaker 3: goal out of it, or no, I think they get

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Speaker 3: to get a touchdown. But that play was worth negative

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Speaker 3: eight EPA for the Ravens. That was more than double

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Speaker 3: the ep value of any other play in the game.

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Speaker 3: That one play dropped the Ravens from sixty five percent

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Speaker 3: win probability of forty three percent. No matter what else

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Speaker 3: you do, I thought Lamar outplayed Josh Allen for the

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Speaker 3: entire majority of the game outside of two or three

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Speaker 3: big mistakes. The two or three big mistakes matter, and

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Speaker 3: those make up for all the other plays. And look,

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Speaker 3: what's weird here from the narrative standpoint is we have

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Speaker 3: said for years, Lamar Jackson doesn't show up in the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: You gotta show up, and you got to back up

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Speaker 3: the narrative and you gotta win games. Lamar Jackson showed

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Speaker 3: up today. I think now Lamar Jackson just became Josh Allen.

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen has showed up in the playoffs before, but

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Speaker 3: then loses because sometimes you get out played in the

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Speaker 3: coin flip game, or the coin flip doesn't land your way.

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Speaker 3: I think Baltimore is a better team today. The stats

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Speaker 3: were better for Baltimore. They ran the ball better. Lamar

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Speaker 3: Jackson's stats were better than the Josh Allen. I frankly,

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Speaker 3: I didn't think Josh Allen was all that great. He

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Speaker 3: just didn't make the big mistakes. He's made all the

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Speaker 3: big mistakes for years. That's been Josh Allen's thing. He's

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Speaker 3: cut the mistakes. Today Lamar made the mistakes, and I

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Speaker 3: feel like at the end of the day, I know

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Speaker 3: there's some luck involved, Andrew's gonna make those plays. You

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Speaker 3: got to create your own luck. You've got to make

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Speaker 3: the winning play. Josh Allen has been good enough to

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Speaker 3: win in the past, but we criticize him because he

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Speaker 3: hasn't actually won. Now he won one of them, he's

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Speaker 3: got to do two more. He's not out of the

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Speaker 3: woods yet. But I think Lamar Jackson has elevated from

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Speaker 3: hasn't done it into the playoffs to Okay, he did it.

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Speaker 3: He did all the things we wanted him to, except

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Speaker 3: you still have to win the game at the end,

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Speaker 3: and he's still going to get the criticism because if

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Speaker 3: you want to be the possible three time MVP and

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Speaker 3: the best in the world. You have to win the

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Speaker 3: games at the end, you're the quarterback. That's how this

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Speaker 3: narrative thing goes. So I think it's interesting. I'm giving

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Speaker 3: Lamar credit. He was really really good in this game,

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Speaker 3: but he also made big, big mistakes, and you can't

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Speaker 3: do that in a game like this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he was superman. I mean, he kind of did

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Speaker 2: it all and also gave it all away. Again. Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen made sure he didn't turn over the ball at

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Speaker 2: all in this game. Six in completions, never really felt

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Speaker 2: like he was putting the ball in danger. His ten carries,

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Speaker 2: he had two touchdowns, like he was legitimately doing everything

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Speaker 2: he had to do to set up this game and

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Speaker 2: not be the one that throws it away. And that's

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Speaker 2: kind of the way it felt like, all right, let's

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Speaker 2: keep going here, rams Eagles. So Eagles win this game

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Speaker 2: twenty eight to twenty two. They closes seven point favorites,

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Speaker 2: which you're gonna hear a theme throughout this one, which

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Speaker 2: is the favorite not exactly covering the closing spread. Total

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Speaker 2: goes over forty three and a half. So the thing

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Speaker 2: I noted here which we had talked about in previous podcasts,

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Speaker 2: and I think was a topic amongst a bunch of

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Speaker 2: people was kind of the mistackles on the Rams side,

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Speaker 2: and you literally see it on the first drive with

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Speaker 2: Hurtz who kind of runs through two people potentially two

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Speaker 2: Rams on that drive. Now you get the missed extra point. Now,

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Speaker 2: Jake Elliott basically throws the entire covering game away from

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Speaker 2: start to finish in terms of the kicks he misses,

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Speaker 2: but he starts it right away when the Eagles are

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Speaker 2: up six nothing. But to me, it's just the same

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Speaker 2: story over and over again with Jalen Hurts thirty nine

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Speaker 2: passing yards in last week. In the first half this week,

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Speaker 2: he had sixty six twenty five net passing yards. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Philly just wasn't moving the ball at all in that direction.

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Speaker 2: I mean, every time it felt like they tried to

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Speaker 2: get it to aj Brown, something went wrong. I think

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Speaker 2: he had one reception for four targets in the first half,

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Speaker 2: so I mean, they just there was no chemistry whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: And then last week we had talked about he Hurts

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Speaker 2: had five point three yards per pass against Green Bay

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Speaker 2: and we were like, well, this isn't gonna do it.

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Speaker 2: If you're gonna face Detroit well, you win the game

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Speaker 2: this week and he has two point four yards per pass,

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Speaker 2: so it got a bunch worse. And then they still

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Speaker 2: won the game somehow. And the way they won the

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Speaker 2: game was Philly on the ground was ridiculous. Ten point

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Speaker 2: one yards per rush in the first half, one hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventy one yards. Both Hurts and Barkley had over

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Speaker 2: one hundred yards on two rushes in the first half.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they were just all over the place. Barkley

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Speaker 2: twenty six rushes, twoh five and two touchdowns. He's only

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Speaker 2: the fifth guy to ever do those numbers in a

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Speaker 2: playoff game. So, I mean, we can talk all we

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Speaker 2: want about Philly and Washington next week, but to me,

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Speaker 2: the story in this game, and you know, we can

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Speaker 2: talk about the Rams and nice job covering and doing

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Speaker 2: a few things well in the cold here, but I

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Speaker 2: think it's probably better to spend our time talking about

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Speaker 2: what to do with Philly because they continue to show

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Speaker 2: us the team they are, which is we can't throw

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Speaker 2: through the air. There's problems between the receivers and Hurts

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Speaker 2: because obviously he can find Goddard, but Saquon is kind

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Speaker 2: of impossible to deal with at this point.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Eagles are really tough to figure out right now.

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Speaker 3: AJ Brown finishes two catches for fourteen yards on seven

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Speaker 3: targets and two playoff games. AJ Brown the number one

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Speaker 3: man against man receiver by PFF grade. AJ Brown has

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Speaker 3: three catches for seventeen yards and two playoff games. That

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Speaker 3: is a failure. I didn't care that. You have to

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Speaker 3: win the games, obviously, but you got to find the

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Speaker 3: way to get the Aj Brown the ball. Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 3: not good enough negative VPA as a passer on thirty

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Speaker 3: two plays, he took seven sacks. That was a big

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Speaker 3: part of it. The thing is too with the Eagles.

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Speaker 3: If you look at just the raw stats, it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: the Eagles won with defense and running the football, and

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Speaker 3: that's okay, that's who the Eagles are. That's what they did.

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Speaker 3: If we dig into a little bit more, Okay, Karen

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Speaker 3: Williams for the Rams ends up with the negative VPA running.

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Speaker 3: But Karen Williams had a huge fumble and that was

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Speaker 3: a twenty percent win percentage swing against the Rams. When

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Speaker 3: he loses the ball. Sakuon Barkley w She's with two

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Speaker 3: hundred and five yards and two scores. But two of

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Speaker 3: those plays are the huge monster touchdown runs, which of

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Speaker 3: course count. That's really good. I'm not discounting those. But

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Speaker 3: outside of those two plays, he ran twenty four times

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Speaker 3: for sixty five yards two point seven yards of carry.

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Speaker 3: The Eagles actually couldn't move the ball in this game.

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Speaker 3: They just had three long runs. They had the Hurts run,

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Speaker 3: and they had the two Saquon runs, And again those count.

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Speaker 3: That's going to get the ball and get the job

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Speaker 3: done if you go to keep doing those. But by

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Speaker 3: game by game and even play by play success rate wise,

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Speaker 3: the Rams were really the better team down by down

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Speaker 3: in this game. To me, I came away thinking, first, okay,

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Speaker 3: the Eagles won with running in defense, I actually think

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Speaker 3: the Eagles won because if you'll get the four biggest

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Speaker 3: plays of the game for the Eagles, their biggest plays

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Speaker 3: were the two Saquon runs, long touchdowns, great way to

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Speaker 3: have a big play. For the Rams, their two biggest

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Speaker 3: plays by EPA and win percentage were fumbles. Stafford had

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Speaker 3: the fumble, Kyron had the fumble. And if your two

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Speaker 3: biggest plays are touchdowns on long plays versus fumbles on

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Speaker 3: the other side, you're gonna lose the game. After that,

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Speaker 3: the Rams finished with more yards in the game. There

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Speaker 3: are two to five in the red zone. You can't

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Speaker 3: do that against the defense. This good, but five trips

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Speaker 3: to the red zone in Philadelphia, that's a good game,

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Speaker 3: especially playing on ice rink effectively. By the way, very

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Speaker 3: weird that if you think back to where did the

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Speaker 3: entire season start, all the way back on that opening

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Speaker 3: Thursday Friday night. Remember we get Thursday night, then we

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Speaker 3: go to Brazil. What do we do? We go Ravens

387
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Speaker 3: start and end the season by having a tight end

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Speaker 3: almost send the game to overtime, but he stepped out

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Speaker 3: of bounds and we blow it. We don't go over time. Today,

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Speaker 3: Raven's tight end almost catches the two that would set

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Speaker 3: up overtime. By the way, not necessarily, Josh Allen had

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Speaker 3: like ninety seconds to go score. If you'll go for

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Speaker 3: the win or win overtime. That was not going to

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Speaker 3: win the game for Baltimore. That part matters, but very

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Speaker 3: mirrored image. Same thing with Kansas City. And then we

396
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Speaker 3: had the Brazil game Philly Green Bay. Here we go

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Speaker 3: Philadelphia playing basically on ice again. They couldn't have any

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Speaker 3: footing in that Brazil game, and we get this weird thing.

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Speaker 3: We get a star quarterback injured, Jordan Love, and that

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Speaker 3: one Jalen Hurts gets injured, and this one is really

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Speaker 3: weird symmetry. Except in this case, well, I guess the

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Speaker 3: Eagles won both of those games. Also, they won the

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Speaker 3: first one. They win this one as well, so this

404
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Speaker 3: is very very strange. Jalen Hurts took that very strange sack.

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Speaker 3: At one point I saw that that was the first

406
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Speaker 3: sack with a first safety with a split sack since

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Speaker 3: nineteen eighty in the playoffs. You're not supposed to just

408
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Speaker 3: like drop back when you can't move and get sacked.

409
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Speaker 3: My multiple guys. I thought both play callers did not

410
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Speaker 3: cover themselves in glory on this one. Now I'm a

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Speaker 3: little biased here. If you're watching on video, you see

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Speaker 3: I'm still with you from the Dungeons in North Dakota.

413
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Speaker 3: I've played a little snow football in my life. I

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Speaker 3: understand about what it is to like run on some

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Speaker 3: snow and ice. I was just screaming at the TV

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Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford, drop three steps or five steps, plant your foot,

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Speaker 3: get the ball out. You have Puka, you have Cooper

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Speaker 3: Cup running short routes. Just get it to them short

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Speaker 3: and let them do their thing. Corners cannot say with receivers,

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Speaker 3: and the defense could not get any pressure on unless

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Speaker 3: they had time.

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Speaker 2: But if you could just.

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Speaker 3: Take it, drop back, get the ball out. They did

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Speaker 3: that on the one drive. Stafford let them right down

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Speaker 3: for a touchdown and it gets down to six, they

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Speaker 3: get the ball back. I'm thinking, man, I think Philly's

427
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Speaker 3: in trouble because they finally figured this out. They can't

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Speaker 3: stop the short pass, and I thought the Rams paniced

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Speaker 3: a little bit, started throwing it further down the field.

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Speaker 3: Well that part wasn't working. Now you're counting on timing.

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Speaker 3: Now you got the win involved everything like that, But

432
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 3: I don't know what Philly was doing continuing to try

433
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 3: to have Jalenhrd's drop back when the guy can't move

434
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 3: and isn't a great passer anyways, Stafford is trying to

435
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 3: hold the ball too long. This very weird game that

436
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 3: I think both teams will have a lot of regrets

437
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 3: about this one, but Philly last regrets. They win the game.

438
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, he had two. I don't want to they're not

439
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 2: underdogs because Baltimore closed as a favorite. But between Baltimore

440
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:47,879
Speaker 2: and the Rams like last minute down a few points,

441
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 2: able to get back in the game. They both kind

442
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 2: of fell short, and after you said to them, said

443
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 2: to yourselves like, oh well, those teams were kind of

444
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 2: playing better and they lost the game. It almost feels

445
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 2: like both teams that won those games didn't exactly have

446
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 2: like better better games in certain ways. And it's weird

447
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,479
Speaker 2: to say about Buffalo because I think you're gonna look

448
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 2: at the box score and even some team stats and

449
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 2: say yourself, well, Buffalo played pretty good. But Baltimore, aside

450
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 2: from the turnovers, I mean, they're definitely stayed in the game.

451
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,119
Speaker 2: So the one thing, and we can talk about this

452
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 2: again at the end, but I think the red zone

453
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 2: stuff from Philly is very worrisome heading into Washington. I

454
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: believe one of six between Green Bay and the Rams

455
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: in the red zone and against Washington this year three

456
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 2: of seven, so not too much better there. And Philly's

457
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 2: gotten really lucky in the turnover game. I believe they've

458
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 2: gotten six turnovers from opponents in their two games, which

459
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,280
Speaker 2: Washington is barely punting forgetting forget turning over the ball.

460
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 2: So again, a lot to talk about. I don't think

461
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 2: we need to stay too much here, We might as

462
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 2: well kind of keep going and we can circle back.

463
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 2: But do you have anything more on this game?

464
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,479
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean the one thing depending on when you

465
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 3: bet this one, we got to comment just on the

466
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 3: Eagles missed the extra point, so Saquon gets the long

467
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 3: touchdown to go up. Should have been fourteen to put

468
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 3: the game away. They missed the extra point, should be irrelevant.

469
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 3: I had Philly minus six, so I ended up pushing here.

470
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 3: It was six six and a half. Mostly we close

471
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 3: at seven, so that one point ended up making it

472
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 3: six and set of seven or maybe the Rams go

473
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 3: for two or I don't really know what happens butterfly effect.

474
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: But that was not the only time this weekend that

475
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 3: we got to miss extra point, screwing with the closing

476
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 3: line there. Otherwise, obviously, Jalen hurts injury has to be

477
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,439
Speaker 3: the big story coming out of this one. Like to me,

478
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 3: what you just said about Philly's red zone, that's Jalen Hurts.

479
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 3: Like they couldn't even do the tush push. They got

480
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: down to the one yard line and they tried to

481
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 3: do pistol stuff because that's all that Hurts could do.

482
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 3: The second half, try to have Sequon get in. Eventually,

483
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 3: finally on fourth down, they're like, all right, Jalen, can

484
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 3: you give us one tush push? And then they couldn't

485
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 3: do it because they get a false start, had to

486
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: get the fuel goal and almost cost them the season

487
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,239
Speaker 3: and by not being able to do that. So I

488
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 3: we'll talk about Philadelphia Washington obviously, but I don't know

489
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 3: what Jalen Hurts can give you, especially because you've heard

490
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 3: I'm not really particularly high on what Hurts has been

491
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 3: giving already. The one thing he can give is with

492
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 3: his legs. So if he's not moving that well now either,

493
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 3: and he's not getting the ball to aj Brown, I

494
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 3: don't know what else is left. Like I was kind

495
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: of to the point where I was like, you know what,

496
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 3: wildcat Saquon for the rest of the fourth quarter and

497
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 3: just run the ball on the ice and let them

498
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 3: do the thing. That's what you're doing anyways on the pistol.

499
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 3: Just get Jalen Hurts out of here and put another

500
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 3: block around there. So I don't know what does that

501
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 3: look like in a week. I don't know how healthy

502
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 3: you can get by then.

503
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 2: I mean, Hurts was looking good on the ground. I

504
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 2: felt like a bunch of times when he scrambled, he

505
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: looked much more comfortable than when he was passing the ball,

506
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 2: which it was odd for me to keep saying that,

507
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 2: because he saw a lot of open space. I felt

508
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 2: like in this game, and again, I'm having a tough

509
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: balance on the Saquon thing between he keeps having a

510
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 2: lot of really long runs, explosive runs yards after contact runs,

511
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 2: but yet the other twenty carries, eighteen carries are created

512
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 2: only into seventy yards. I mean, how do I not

513
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: talk about the explosive runs. So as long as Philly

514
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 2: keeps delivering him the ball, I kind of assume there's

515
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: gonna be a median there and he's gonna fall in

516
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 2: that one hundred plus zone and Washington is certainly vulnerable.

517
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 2: And we just saw Gibbs literally run dances up and

518
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 2: down the field. Okay, let me go into my big

519
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 2: stat and then we'll recap Saturday the big stat and

520
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna give you two because it's divisional weekend and

521
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: we're gonna have having some fun. Favorites go zero to

522
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 2: four ats on the closing line in the divisional round,

523
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 2: So Casey closed it nine and a half, and just

524
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 2: so I can get this right, Detroit closed at eight obviously,

525
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 2: Washington won, Philly closes at seven, Rams lose by six,

526
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 2: and then Baltimore closed at minus one and a half

527
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 2: in Buffalo. This would be just the third time that's

528
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 2: happened since the nineteen seventy merger, and the first time

529
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 2: all four favorites failed to close on the closing line

530
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 2: Division round two thousand and seven, and then the last

531
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 2: one before we move on here. So preseason odds for

532
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 2: the four teams left in the field, kse at five

533
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 2: to one, Philly at twelve to one, Buffalo was actually

534
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 2: sixteen to one. Then the fun one the Commanders were

535
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty to one. They would be the

536
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: third fourth team since the nineteen seventy eight one hundred

537
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 2: and fifty one higher the nineteen seventy nine Bucks, nineteen

538
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: ninety nine Rams, twenty twenty one Bengals. So I'll have

539
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 2: more in the article. You'll hear about it all week,

540
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 2: but those are the comps right now for Jayden Daniels,

541
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 2: and I guess ninety nine Rams is kind of a

542
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 2: rookie with Kurt Warner, but fun stuff there, so let's

543
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 2: just reach cap Saturday, and I'll let you kind of

544
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 2: start here since I've been rambling for a minute here.

545
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 2: But Washington Detroit. Washington wins this game forty five thirty

546
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: one as eight point dogs on the close. I know

547
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 2: it was like nine and a half all week, but

548
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 2: total goes over fifty five and a half and indoor

549
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 2: craziness that went on in this one. But fifty two

550
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 2: total points in the first half. What did you take

551
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 2: out of the beginning of this game?

552
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this game had everything. This game was

553
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 3: so much fun. Everything we thought this was going to be.

554
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 3: I thought this played exactly a corner script. Neither defense

555
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 3: really could do anything in this game less they just

556
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 3: made a big play. First half fifty two points tie

557
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 3: to playoff record, forty two of those were in the

558
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 3: second quarter. I didn't check, but that's got to be

559
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 3: a playoff record. We're getting live total in the high

560
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: eighties as we approached halftime, like we're talking like big

561
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,479
Speaker 3: twelve after dark sort of scores here in the NFL

562
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: in the playoffs. We get David Montgomery on a double

563
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 3: shovel pass, throwing a pass, but we were ready to

564
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 3: like put Ben Johnson into the presidency after that. Then

565
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 3: later in the game, we get Jamison Williams, fresh off

566
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: a sixty one yard reverse touchdown run another reverse throws

567
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 3: an interception like right as Detroit is driving, giving the

568
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 3: game away. We get Teddy Bridgewater in the game. Teddy

569
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 3: Bridgewater is literally coaching high school football a month ago,

570
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 3: and he comes in the game and is playing actual

571
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 3: minutes and leads a touchdown drive. Grantedy just hand the

572
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 3: ball off, but he got the job done. We got

573
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 3: four Lions attempting a pass in this game. Ben Johnson

574
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 3: maybe trying a little too hard at times, if we're

575
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 3: being honest, Cliff Kingsbury actually maybe out coaching Ben Johnson,

576
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 3: if we're being honest, because I've had plenty of times

577
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 3: hard on Cliff Kingsbury. At the end of the day,

578
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 3: after all the fun, we knew the Lions defense had

579
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: been in shamble since midseason. They just had too many injuries.

580
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 3: And then the game started. In like first drive, Amik

581
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 3: Robertson goes out injured, the cornerback that everyone loved for

582
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 3: shutting down justin Jefferson. Brian branch leaves later, the star

583
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 3: safety that had been possible DPOY candidate. He's out like

584
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 3: there's nobody left. You're down six seven starters from opening day.

585
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 3: You're down just as many guys on the second string.

586
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 3: There's just no shot. The Lions end up playing like underdogs,

587
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 3: like they're running trick plays and reverses and going forward

588
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: to four and I know the Lions always do that stuff.

589
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 3: The Lions played like we've got to come up with

590
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 3: something to catch up because they were behind, and I

591
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 3: think they were right to play that way. I thought

592
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 3: that they recognized appropriately Dan Campbell credit where it's due,

593
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 3: recognized we're gonna lose. We gotta come up with something

594
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: because our defense cannot get off the field, and like

595
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 3: quite frankly, Washington's defense couldn't go off the field either.

596
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 3: Detroit's offense was even better than Washington was. They just

597
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 3: happened to turn over five times, which matters. Washington made

598
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 3: the play when they needed to, and Jared Goff lost

599
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 3: the game and the season for Detroit. But man, just

600
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 3: fireworks all over the place. Jimior Gibbs just running crazy.

601
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 3: Jane Daniels, is that, dude? I think at the end

602
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 3: of the day, that's what is that you have Jared

603
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 3: Goff not that dude, and you have Jared go you

604
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 3: have Jadene Daniels as that dude. And just man, if

605
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 3: you what'd you say Washington one fifty? If you have

606
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 3: a one to fifty Washington ticket, hit us in the

607
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 3: comments on Twitter, like when we post this, like I

608
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 3: want to see the ticket. I want to see the

609
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 3: one fifty because I don't know what price you had

610
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 3: to give me the bet on Washington before the season,

611
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 3: but I did not put them in the NFC Championship.

612
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 3: This is awesome.

613
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, rookie quarterback basically, I mean I think he's the

614
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 2: sixth rookie to make a conference championship game, that is

615
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: Jayden Daniels. No rookie has ever started the Super Bowl,

616
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 2: obviously brock Purty most recently. He was four for four

617
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 2: in that game for like twenty three yards before all

618
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 2: havoc went loose and he missed the rest of the game,

619
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 2: so he at least started okay in that one. I think,

620
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 2: from my point of view, I want to go back

621
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 2: to the quarterback rankings we did on the Best Bets

622
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 2: episode because I do feel like we were kind of right,

623
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 2: Like our last two were Goff and Hurts, and I

624
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 2: understand Hurts got the win, but I don't think anything

625
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: he did really change my opinion. And then having Stafford

626
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 2: Alan Jayden like, I don't necessarily think Stroud did too

627
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 2: much wrong, but you know, I think that was necessarily

628
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: probably the right angle from you and me, So I

629
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 2: feel kind of proud about that. Yeah, the only thing

630
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 2: I think was really interesting before we get into other

631
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 2: stuff about next week. Dan Campbell said it at the half,

632
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 2: and I think after Jerry Goff threw the pick six

633
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 2: and made it twenty four to fourteen, Detroit felt like

634
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 2: they were one possession back for like two and a

635
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 2: half quarters and they never had to stop in them

636
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: to get them back in the game, because even when

637
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 2: they got close, it just all of a sudden. Washington

638
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 2: would have like an eleven play drive for ninety one

639
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 2: yards and then bang, Washington has a fifteen plays over

640
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: eight minutes, including two fourth downs. Like there was never

641
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 2: a moment where Detroit felt like, oh, they got the

642
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 2: stop to get them back in the game, and I

643
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: think you felt it in the playoffs. Washington, I believe,

644
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 2: is six of nine on fourth down, which if you've

645
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: been watching their games, it completely feels like that because

646
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 2: even when they're getting into that position where it's fourth

647
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 2: and one, fourth and two, their play calling is very efficient.

648
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 2: And you got to give some some some good stuff

649
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 2: to Kingsbury in that situation because it has worked well.

650
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 2: I do want to talk about.

651
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 3: A fourth down thing. Yeah, about the fourth down. So

652
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 3: Washington first drive, eight plays, fifty one yards, then they

653
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 3: go fourth down, fourth and one. I think like near

654
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 3: scoring position. Great, love the call. You're Washington, You're going

655
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 3: for it. You're the underdog on the road. They go

656
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 3: for what. I think they bring Mariota on and I

657
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 3: think they had a Mariota fake sneak called. I think

658
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 3: he was going to pitch the ball to Jane Daniels,

659
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 3: who was gone, like, that's a touchdown if you get

660
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 3: the pitchoff, and I think Brian Robinson panicked a little bit,

661
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 3: runs in him.

662
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 2: You get this.

663
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,719
Speaker 3: Totally botched, terrible looking play and you blow fourth down.

664
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 3: Detroit immediately goes down the other end and gets a touchdown.

665
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: I think a lot of teams as the underdog, the

666
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 3: sixth seed, you're cooked at that point, like you crumble,

667
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: that's the end. You go, Turtle, No more fourth downs.

668
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 3: We gave it our one shot. That is not what

669
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 3: Washington did from there into halftime. They go field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown,

670
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 3: every time they touch the ball. Detroit only stopped them

671
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 3: one more time the rest of the game. Washington went

672
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 3: for fourth down three more times after that. They converted

673
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 3: all three, and they score a touchdown on all three drives.

674
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 3: So so much, we're taking the points because three and

675
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 3: three and three was not going to beat Detroit. Detroit

676
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 3: put up points in this game. They scored plenty here,

677
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 3: and the biggest fourth down was one Washington need even

678
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 3: have to convert, was fourth and two. Late in the game,

679
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 3: they're up thirteen or sorry, up ten on the thirteen,

680
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 3: like seven and a half minutes left. Detroit lines up

681
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 3: and Washington doesn't have to snap the ball because Detroit's

682
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:14,959
Speaker 3: got too many men on the field. Tom Brady calls

683
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 3: it out as we're watching it happen, and Washington gets

684
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 3: the auto convert on a fourth down that's not even

685
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 3: in the stats there, because look, Detroit, they got like

686
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 3: dudes coming off the street playing like they don't know

687
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 3: who's supposed to be on the field. We got backups

688
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 3: playing that didn't play any regular season snaps at all,

689
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,479
Speaker 3: Like that's what happens when you're out of guys there.

690
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,879
Speaker 3: But Washington, they're in no huddle for like the entire

691
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 3: game here, just causing confusion. No huddle puts stress on

692
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 3: the defense. Fourth downs put stress on the defense. Detroit's

693
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 3: defense was stressed for the last two months of the season,

694
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 3: and Washington was like, we don't think you can handle

695
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 3: it for sixty minutes. We're just coming at you and

696
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 3: we Washington basically came into this game and was like, Hey,

697
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 3: you want to play no defense and all off Ben

698
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 3: Johnson and Detroit, great, let's do it. Let's go shootout

699
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 3: right now. We think we beat you at your own game.

700
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 3: And then they did, and frankly the credit where it's

701
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 3: not due for me. I picked Washington to win and

702
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 3: then barely profited off of it at all because I

703
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 3: thought Washington, if they win, would win by one to six.

704
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 3: I wasn't high enough on my own pick. Washington won comfortably.

705
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 3: I'm like rooting for the back door Detroit anti cover

706
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: to get me back down to my one to six margin.

707
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 3: Washington was too good and they just beat Detroit at

708
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 3: their own game. Detroit five hundred and twenty one yards.

709
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 3: They were nine yards of play till late came down

710
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,879
Speaker 3: to seven point seven, still very good. But Goff had

711
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 3: pick six, he had a strip, sack, he had interception.

712
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 3: Those three plays cost the lines thirty five percent win

713
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 3: probability in sixteen EPA and now big picture, Detroit now

714
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 3: has won two playoff games and thirty four years. That

715
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:56,879
Speaker 3: sucks and that is how it is. Those two were

716
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 3: last year. By the way, this is a devastating out

717
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 3: for Detroit. You lose the game, you lose the dream

718
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 3: season now because you lost early. I think you very

719
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 3: very likely lose both coordinators. Ben Johnson we assume is

720
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 3: gone losing early, so these coaches are available to go

721
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 3: do all the interviews they want now. I think Aaron

722
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 3: Glenn maybe is gone too. Is that the end of

723
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 3: the era for this version of Detroit. Jared Goff is

724
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 3: what he is because of Ben Johnson, because of what

725
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 3: they've been there. That aggressive Dan Campbell personality. Is that

726
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 3: work when you don't have these play calls backing you up.

727
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 3: I don't know. On the other side, Washington their first

728
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 3: NFC championship since nineteen ninety one. I'm sure you've seen

729
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 3: the stat Everyone's talking about it because we love to

730
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 3: dump on the Cowboys. The Cowboys now have the longest

731
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 3: drought of not making the NFC Championship. The Bears are

732
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 3: second longest. They're twenty ten. The Cowboys are nineteen ninety five.

733
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 3: America's team fifteen more years since getting there. I know

734
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 3: we talked about them as the top job available for coaches,

735
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 3: But in your own division, Washington finally getting there, Detroit

736
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 3: finally got there last year. I don't know where this

737
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 3: is for Washington, Like, it's interesting thinking about this big picture.

738
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 3: Is this sort of the early peak moment for them?

739
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 3: And you know, I'm thinking of like in the NBA,

740
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 3: you get kind of this magical spot where sometimes the

741
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,760
Speaker 3: right injuries and the right path lines up and suddenly

742
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 3: the Hawks are the Atlanta Hawks are in the conference championship,

743
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 3: or the Portland Trailblazers. Everyone's like, Okay, that's the up

744
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 3: and coming team now, and then it's like, no, you

745
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 3: were still the sixth seed. You just kind of won

746
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 3: the game a couple times and then you went back

747
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 3: to being the thing you were before. So is this

748
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 3: that or is this Jade Daniels being like no, I'm

749
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson too. I'm top five quarterback. I'm gonna do

750
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 3: this thing. And I think if you're Philadelphia looking at

751
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 3: the matchup now next week, you got a division rival

752
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 3: who just beat you a month and a half ago.

753
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 3: You have clearly the worst quarterback the way that hurts

754
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 3: is injured and Jane Daniels is playing right now, and

755
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,839
Speaker 3: you have a volatile opponent who's gonna go for them

756
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 3: four down, who's gonna know how to who's gonna put

757
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 3: pressure on you all game. I think Philadelphia is clearly

758
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 3: the better team, but you don't want volatility, you just

759
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 3: want to be better. And I think Philadelphia should feel

760
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 3: like they should win, but the pressure is all on them,

761
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,839
Speaker 3: and Washington is fully housed money at this point. And

762
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 3: I will still only put them maybe five to ten

763
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 3: percent to win the Super Bowl. They're clearly by far

764
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 3: the worst team left. It's all Jane Daniels, so I

765
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 3: can't bet it, but I also can't rule them out.

766
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 3: Jane Daniels makes them live and their fourth downs and

767
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,959
Speaker 3: their volatility makes them alive underdog, and I don't think

768
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 3: any of the three teams left besides them are that

769
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 3: vulnerable that they couldn't beat them any given Sunday.

770
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 2: It's crazy crazy to say, because I know Washington obviously

771
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 2: plays outside, but I feel like I preferred them in

772
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 2: the dome environment, which I think helped their craziness on

773
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 2: fourth down, where in Philly outdoors, I just looked at

774
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 2: the weather. It's gonna be who the hell knows. It's

775
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,280
Speaker 2: a week away, but it's, you know, in the thirties.

776
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 2: It's not going to be as perfect as it was,

777
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 2: So I think there's something interesting there. I'm sure if

778
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 2: I looked back at all their games and I looked outdoor,

779
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 2: I'm sure their fourth downs were just fine and it's just,

780
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 2: you know, something else to deal with. But I do

781
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 2: think that part of the reason why I liked Washington

782
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 2: previously entering this week a little bit more was because

783
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 2: it was a controlled environment where Detroit had to play

784
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 2: their perfect way, which they kind of did. Aside from

785
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 2: GoF throwing it away a million times, like the numbers

786
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: still looked really good. Gibbs was great, like Detroit did

787
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 2: a lot good, like Amana's numbers were crazy, but the

788
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 2: turnovers kind of did them in. I think Washington has

789
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 2: to play even more perfect next week. While Philly feels

790
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 2: like they never play well anyway and win games. So

791
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 2: it's just it's it's a little bit strange. The one

792
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 2: thing I do want to say, and this was just funny.

793
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 2: I was gonna ask you a trivia question, but it's

794
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 2: too easy. So Detroit was the only teaser leg that

795
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 2: didn't hit this weekend of of all the games. So

796
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 2: obviously minus eight losing out right will do it for you.

797
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 2: And I felt like this was significant. So I looked

798
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 2: this up. Since two thousand, we've had let's see, three

799
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:18,280
Speaker 2: six three six, nine teams score five hundred plus points

800
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 2: and win by two hundred plus points in the regular season.

801
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 2: None of them won the Super Bowl. Last team to

802
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: do that with the ninety nine Rams. So I just

803
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 2: feel like we see all these dominant teams entering the

804
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 2: regular season, and some of those teams like it was

805
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 2: a twenty twenty four Lions, so obviously this year's Lions,

806
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, Ravens twenty thirteen Broncos got there, twenty twelve, Patriots,

807
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 2: twenty eleven Packers and Saints twenty seven, two thousand and

808
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 2: seven Patriots obviously, just so many different teams that just

809
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 2: dominated the competition didn't end up getting through, but all right,

810
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 2: let's keep rolling here. Oh sorry, go yeah.

811
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 3: And I think we talked about this on the Picks

812
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 3: podcast last week for Best Bets. This is that thing

813
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 3: about betting against the one seeds in this round. And

814
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:04,880
Speaker 3: I think, to me, here's what it comes down to.

815
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:07,919
Speaker 3: We think of the one seed as a body of work.

816
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 3: We think of a seventeen game season, eighteen games, whatever

817
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 3: you want to call it. We look back and we

818
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,320
Speaker 3: see the whole thing. We should you earn the one seed,

819
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 3: you earn the bye. And we look back and think, okay, wow,

820
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 3: look what the Lions did all season, But it doesn't

821
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 3: really matter. It matters that they're in the home game

822
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 3: and they're in the bye. But actually we should be

823
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 3: looking at what are they right now? What's the team

824
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 3: right now? Because Washington, what Washington did the first game

825
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 3: of the season, when Jane Daniels is a rookie on

826
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 3: the road in his debut, when Dan Quinn hasn't had

827
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: time to coach up the defense yet, when the offensive

828
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 3: line has five brand new starters. Who cares like that

829
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 3: has no bearing whatsoever on what Washington is right now today,

830
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 3: including what they're today is different next week Sam cos

831
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 3: me the right guard is out now for the season,

832
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 3: so they're again a little different than like you've got

833
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 3: to always be changing, updating what you think a team is.

834
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 3: And I think the problem why one seeds have such

835
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 3: a terrible ats in the divisional round, like year after

836
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 3: year we see the favorites go h one to four

837
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 3: atis with some shenanigams. We'll hope bit on the closing

838
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 3: lines on some of these, but that was the big

839
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 3: trend coming in is to be careful betting favorites in

840
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 3: this round because look, Kansas City, they win the game,

841
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 3: they end up not covering. We'll get to them in

842
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 3: a second, but they're eleven to zero and one score

843
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 3: games at the end of the season. Now you're fifteen

844
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 3: in two. Now we have to treat you like the

845
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 3: one seed juggernaut that your final body of work tells

846
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 3: you that you are. But the reality is that's all

847
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 3: gone now and all those one score games, the eleven

848
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 3: to zero part didn't matter as much as the fact

849
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 3: that they're all one score games and that you let

850
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 3: teams hang around, and that that part is telling going

851
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 3: forward as well. And so I think it's a difference

852
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 3: of respect the body of work and what the team was,

853
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 3: but also what are they right now? And in this case,

854
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: Detroit had been telling us for quite a while now

855
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 3: that they were not what Detroit was from the body

856
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,320
Speaker 3: of work on the season, that defense was not holding

857
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 3: up anymore. And then I think that that is the

858
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 3: version that played out, and I think that that line

859
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 3: badly miscalculated what Detroit used to be and made it

860
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,879
Speaker 3: be compared to what they actually are now. And that's

861
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,919
Speaker 3: why the you know, the line were they they're they're

862
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 3: eight and nine and a half point favorites to lose

863
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 3: by two touchdowns. Like you don't cover, you can you

864
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,439
Speaker 3: can have like a twenty point teaser. You still didn't

865
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 3: cover your teaser. And now one it's not a pig

866
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 3: that's gonna hit so and then of course Chiefs Texans

867
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,959
Speaker 3: we can get into now goes crazy in the final

868
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: few seconds, depending where you got that number.

869
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's just start there. So Houston Kansas City,

870
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 2: Kansas City wins a game twenty three fourteen, doesn't cover

871
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 2: as a nine and a half point favorite on the

872
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 2: close total goes under forty one and a half. I

873
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,320
Speaker 2: mean that that's where you have to start because Casey

874
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 2: closes minus nine and a half it was actually minus

875
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:54,239
Speaker 2: eight and a half on game day, uh, and ends

876
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 2: up kind of getting pushed up a full point in

877
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 2: like the final hour or so. So I mean, listen,

878
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 2: if you ended up betting Casey minus nine and a half,

879
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: there's really might not much to say to you. I mean,

880
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 2: you had all week to do it, and you were

881
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 2: really busy at the office. You finally looked at it

882
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 2: twenty minutes before kick and you were like nine and

883
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 2: a half. This stinks, And if you did that, I'm

884
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 2: really sorry because the way this game ended. It's only

885
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 2: a moment if you've been gambling forever, where you say

886
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 2: to yourself, well, this is something that I've seen and

887
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 2: I hope doesn't happen, and if you have Houston, you're like,

888
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:37,439
Speaker 2: oh my god, this is a possibility. So I don't

889
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 2: know if you want to comment any further there, but

890
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 2: it's one of those, you know, Twitter X, whatever you

891
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 2: want to call it, just moments where everybody rushes to

892
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 2: see everyone else's comment because you just can't believe what

893
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 2: you've just seen, and especially especially in a Kansas City

894
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 2: game where for what feels like the forty fourth time

895
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 2: in this season they're gonna win a game and not cover.

896
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:09,320
Speaker 2: It's just just absolutely treacherously perfect. But what's your thoughts?

897
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I was obviously keyed on this one

898
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 3: because I gave out the Texans, but I gave out

899
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 3: Texans when we recorded our show at plus eight and

900
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 3: a half. Now I knew that I thought the line

901
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 3: would rise because I said all week I thought the

902
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 3: line would get to nine to nine and a half

903
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 3: for teaser protection. I think that's kind of where we

904
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 3: ended up going there at the end of the week.

905
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 3: We got those teaser picks in to start the week off,

906
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 3: I had to give out eight and a half. That's

907
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 3: when the pick is. That's the pick I made. I

908
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,479
Speaker 3: can't take credit for a different pick that existed later

909
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 3: in life. So I'm watching thinking, Okay, the Texans at

910
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 3: down eleven, but Dimiko's real conservative. They absolutely should not

911
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 3: kick a field goal here. They absolutely need to get

912
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,360
Speaker 3: a touchdown. Field goal means I still need an on

913
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 3: side and a touchdown and a two point conversion just

914
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:54,800
Speaker 3: to tie the game. Just to be huge underdogs against

915
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes on the road, Like that is no way

916
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 3: to win a game, you should go for the touchdown.

917
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 3: Of course, they settled for the field goal, and I'm like,

918
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 3: oh my gosh, this is incredible. I'm going to backdoor

919
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:07,959
Speaker 3: this cover, which by the way, Houston should have covered

920
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 3: all the way. Houston clearly the right side from a

921
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 3: betting standpoint, regardless of the number. They're down eleven, the

922
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 3: field goal gets blocked because of course it does. It's

923
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 3: the Chiefs that is find a way to block the

924
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:23,320
Speaker 3: field goal. So now it's still eleven. That's that only

925
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 3: Now Kansas City punter runs out the back of the

926
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 3: end zone for a safety with what like fifteen seconds left,

927
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:32,280
Speaker 3: and there's the two points. So now it's just like, okay,

928
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 3: at the close nine and a half, that flips one

929
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 3: way if you bet at the rest of the week.

930
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 3: Eight and a half. Now you're feeling the pain, like

931
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 3: I can't really really feel aggrieved that I lose by

932
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 3: half a point. They don't take the two point safety

933
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,399
Speaker 3: if they're not ahead by that score, which the only

934
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 3: head by that score, because I thought the Texans were really,

935
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 3: really good to get to the rest of the game

936
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:57,839
Speaker 3: except horrifying on special teams, which unfortunately is a kind

937
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 3: of remix of an old matchup. They had the playoffs

938
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,839
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs, so they missed the fifty five yard

939
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 3: field goal defensible, tough kick, bad weather, I get it.

940
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 3: Then you miss an extra point, then you get the

941
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 3: block field goal late. That's seven points from your kicker.

942
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 3: And on the very first play of the game they

943
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 3: allow a huge kickoff return to the Chiefs. It looked

944
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 3: like it's gonna be a touchdown. I'm like, oh, this

945
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 3: game is over immediately first play they hold them to three.

946
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 3: That was a recurring theme. I thought Houston's defense was incredible.

947
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 3: I thought their defense really stood up. Will Anderson was fantastic,

948
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 3: especially early. They held the Chiefs of two hundred and

949
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 3: twelve yards in this game. Part of that is field

950
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:35,879
Speaker 3: position and what they needed to do. But you hold

951
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 3: the Chiefs two hundred and twelve yards in a playoff game,

952
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:40,359
Speaker 3: you've done your job. You definitely have to feel good

953
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 3: about that one. But the special teams gave away ten

954
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 3: points three off of the kickoff at the beginning, seven

955
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 3: off of miss kicks. You lost by nine. You gave

956
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 3: away ten points. I can help you with the math

957
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 3: on that. I'd like the ten points. I'd like to

958
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 3: win by one, please, sir, so I thought Houston was

959
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 3: the better team. They're the first team ever to lead

960
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 3: by one hundred yards or more with zero turnovers and

961
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 3: still lose a playoff game. Teams had been forty nine

962
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 3: to zero before that from ESPN. So that's one of

963
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,799
Speaker 3: the big stories in this game. I know it's a

964
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 3: while ago now, but the other big story, at least

965
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:20,839
Speaker 3: as it's unfolding online, has to be the officiating. That

966
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 3: was the big thing we all talked about as the

967
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 3: game is unfolding, with the big calls consistently going in

968
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 3: Patrick mahomes favor and the Chiefs, the thing that we

969
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 3: know as a story all season. What'd you think of

970
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:33,439
Speaker 3: the officiating in this one?

971
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's never gonna be great when it

972
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:42,760
Speaker 2: feels like everyone who's talking about the game sees something

973
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 2: so clearly on one side and the officials see it

974
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 2: another way. And the game is in Kansas City, So

975
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 2: I just feel like there's a lot of if the

976
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 2: game had been in Houston, Like, do we feel like

977
00:48:54,840 --> 00:49:00,359
Speaker 2: anything gets dealt with any differently? Like the officiating wasn't great.

978
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:02,919
Speaker 2: I think there was a few different calls that went

979
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 2: Kansas City's way that probably shouldn't have. You also had

980
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:10,799
Speaker 2: Mahomes acting a little bit on the sideline. I think,

981
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 2: you know, they tend to play into it a little bit.

982
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 2: I think they tend to know it. And you heard

983
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 2: a bunch of the Texans in postgame. I think opponents

984
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 2: know it as well, which you know, for a league

985
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 2: like this, when I think integrity is something that they

986
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:29,360
Speaker 2: hold dear to their hearts, hearing an opponent mentioned it

987
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:34,319
Speaker 2: in postgame is not something they should love. But nonetheless,

988
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 2: I don't you know, our games during the season dealt

989
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 2: with and like, you know, changing hands because of some

990
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,839
Speaker 2: of these calls, like the likely play and the past

991
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 2: interference against Cincinnati. Like understandable that certainly there's times that

992
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 2: feels like it's happening that way, But I feel like

993
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 2: Casey's winning games in other ways and it's just frustrating

994
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 2: fans and opponents alike. So that's kind of my initial

995
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,320
Speaker 2: take here, going back to like the on the field,

996
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 2: to me, the entire story of Houston Kansas City is

997
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 2: kind of just the pressure put on both both quarterbacks.

998
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:18,440
Speaker 2: So Stroud just does end up with eight sacks for

999
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:23,319
Speaker 2: fifty eight yards. Five sacks in the second half, and

1000
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 2: then you just look at pressure overall. So in both

1001
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 2: meetings this season, Stroud was seven and nineteen under pressure,

1002
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 2: under six yards per attempt in the first matchup of

1003
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 2: the year. In the second matchup, he was six of eleven.

1004
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:38,919
Speaker 2: Then you look at Mahomes nine of thirteen seventy seven

1005
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 2: yards in the first matchup, he was six of nine

1006
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:43,839
Speaker 2: for forty four yards and a touchdown second matchup. That's

1007
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 2: all under pressure. So I just kind of feel like

1008
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 2: both these quarterbacks were on their butts a lot, especially

1009
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,320
Speaker 2: in the first half, and it just didn't impact Kansas

1010
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 2: City on key downs as much as it did Houston.

1011
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 2: The funniest thing looking at all other games was, of course,

1012
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 2: Casey was the only team to win this weekend that

1013
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 2: didn't win the turnover battle, as it was zero zero

1014
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 2: on both sides five nothing Washington three to nothing, Buffalo

1015
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:17,880
Speaker 2: two nothing Philly, and here's case just figuring out another

1016
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 2: way to win. So the thing that you know, you

1017
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 2: look at Travis Kelcey as well. I mean over and

1018
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 2: over and over again. I believe his receiving yards in

1019
00:51:28,480 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 2: this game was like in the low fifties. We'll talk

1020
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 2: about it in a few minutes when we talk about

1021
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 2: Buffalo Canzi. But now it's in the high sixties, low seventies,

1022
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 2: so that has been you know, obviously adjusted. You know,

1023
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,880
Speaker 2: when the guy does nothing during the regular season and

1024
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 2: then is Jerry Rice in the postseason at this point.

1025
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, he finished with seven catches, one hundred and seventeen

1026
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown on eight targets. He had the

1027
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 3: forty nine yard or early as long as play of

1028
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 3: the season and near a touchdown. I think that was

1029
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 3: as long as play a postseason career, which is a

1030
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 3: pretty good postseason career. I a little salty it didn't

1031
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 3: get the touchdown. I feel like Travis scores that one

1032
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 3: like three years ago. But you know that's what we

1033
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:08,399
Speaker 3: were betting on. I'm on the first touchdown there. Very

1034
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 3: interesting you look at the targets here. I kind of

1035
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 3: forgot about Danra Hopkins in this game because the Chiefs

1036
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 3: forgot about Danira Hopkins. This is a revenge game for him,

1037
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 3: right they played for Houston all those years he was

1038
00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 3: invisible and Hollywood Brown with Danira Hopkins. Those three or

1039
00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 3: those two guys had three targets for no catches. They

1040
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,720
Speaker 3: did not get a catch Hollywood almost did. He dropped

1041
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:31,399
Speaker 3: one late down the sideline, zaf you're worthy. We bet

1042
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 3: on his receptions, no escalator, but he got five catches.

1043
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 3: They're clearly trying to get the ball to him short

1044
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 3: and in space. We saw that play out and we

1045
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 3: saw Travis Kelcey looking like as always legacy playoff Travis

1046
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 3: kelce So we'll come back to that with the hot read.

1047
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 3: But I think you want to look to those guys again.

1048
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 3: The Chiefs are what we think they are now. They're

1049
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:53,839
Speaker 3: living in that short underneath stuff and it's not real

1050
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,439
Speaker 3: pretty and it's not exciting, and it's not the best

1051
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 3: offense in the world. But against the Texans, who played

1052
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,399
Speaker 3: them really well, it was enough. But barely enough too.

1053
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 3: If you look at success rate, the Chiefs finished thirty

1054
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 3: nine percent success rate for the game. That's only the

1055
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:12,279
Speaker 3: twenty seventh percentile. Like this was effectively. If you look

1056
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 3: at any four games, three of the four the offense

1057
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 3: is more successful down to down than what the Chiefs are,

1058
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:21,480
Speaker 3: including on early pass downs. In this game, the Chiefs

1059
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 3: were fifth percentile success rate. That's not good. And now look,

1060
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:29,160
Speaker 3: Houston's defense was really good. Here Buffalo's defense is not

1061
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 3: is not as good there. But the Chiefs are not

1062
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 3: really able to run away from teams and hide it

1063
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 3: because the offense is not explosive. The offense is not

1064
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 3: blocking well enough. I thought the offensive line might be

1065
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:45,840
Speaker 3: a real problem here, but maybe not. I don't know

1066
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 3: who can exploit it. If Houston couldn't get the job done,

1067
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:50,279
Speaker 3: I don't know who left is going to get the

1068
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:55,320
Speaker 3: job done. It's feeling increasingly to me like, Okay, weirdly,

1069
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 3: we've seen the Chiefs here before every single year. Patri

1070
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 3: Mahomes is seven for seven now in the Friends Championship

1071
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:03,879
Speaker 3: getting there. We've seen the Bills. We've seen them get

1072
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 3: to the stage to face the big goliath in the Chiefs.

1073
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 3: We've seen the Eagles get to the Super Bowl and

1074
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 3: face the Chiefs there. We've seen not the Commanders, but

1075
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 3: these three other teams. I think we've seen better versions

1076
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:19,120
Speaker 3: of all three of those teams. But none of that

1077
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 3: matters because I don't think the Chiefs are as good

1078
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:25,239
Speaker 3: as they've been in past years. But I also don't

1079
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 3: know if they have to be because they only have

1080
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 3: to beat the other teams that are also maybe not

1081
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:31,799
Speaker 3: as good as they've been in past years and you

1082
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 3: can only beat the teams in front of you, and

1083
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 3: nobody in NFL history has won three NFL championships in

1084
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 3: a row. And the Chiefs are a home game and

1085
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:44,360
Speaker 3: then a game where they will be big favorites in

1086
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:47,960
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl away from doing it now. And I

1087
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 3: don't think that they're this amazing team right now this season,

1088
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 3: but I think they're the best team. And somehow we

1089
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 3: hear again in the final four the Chiefs are the

1090
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 3: best team. What else is now?

1091
00:54:57,360 --> 00:55:00,239
Speaker 2: I mean facing at a pretty good defense, and so

1092
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 2: I'll call them great for this season. In the last

1093
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 2: game in Houston, not really targeting any wide receivers at

1094
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 2: all in the game aside from Worthy and now getting

1095
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:14,319
Speaker 2: an easier matchup I think defensively at least through the

1096
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:16,840
Speaker 2: air and being able to kind of open up the offense.

1097
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 2: I think this works perfectly. I mean, Casey won that

1098
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 2: game with like fifty rushing yards. Teams were thirteen and

1099
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:26,000
Speaker 2: thirty nine with fifty rushing yards or less than the

1100
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 2: playoffs in like the last twenty years. Like people, this

1101
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 2: is did they win how they want to win? So

1102
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 2: I think they saw the Houston matchup a little differently,

1103
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 2: and they're going to see Buffalo differently. You want to

1104
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:38,600
Speaker 2: start with Buffalo in Kansas City.

1105
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 3: Here, let's start in the NFC, because I have one

1106
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 3: hot rate tonight in the AFC, So let's start with

1107
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 3: the NFC. What do you think about Eagles mayas four

1108
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 3: and a half commanders? It's like in the no zone

1109
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:50,719
Speaker 3: right now, stuck in the middle, I think, because we

1110
00:55:50,719 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 3: don't really know what to expect with Jalen Hurts. Do

1111
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 3: you have any lien on that one yet?

1112
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, So let's just talk about the line for a second.

1113
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 2: So the look ahead we had this conversation last week

1114
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 2: was actually six and a half. I believe I saw

1115
00:56:04,040 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 2: some four and a half so Philly, now I see

1116
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:11,200
Speaker 2: about five now. I think the status of Hurts is

1117
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:14,520
Speaker 2: relatively in the air, but I think we would make

1118
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 2: the assumption with this much time and the fact they returned,

1119
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 2: we're gonna see him now. I don't think we'll have

1120
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 2: an answer for a while in terms of his mobility

1121
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:27,399
Speaker 2: or if there's anything there then maybe we didn't see

1122
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 2: that would impact on the field results. So I think

1123
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:33,600
Speaker 2: that's probably why we're seeing like a five in the market,

1124
00:56:33,640 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 2: because I think it could be four or six depending

1125
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 2: on his health. That's kind of the way I look

1126
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 2: at it. I think it's probably important now before I

1127
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 2: toss it back to you, just to recap a little bit.

1128
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 2: So we have seen these teams play twice this season

1129
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 2: and they split the games. Now, one of the games,

1130
00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 2: Hurts basically didn't play the entire game because he got hurt,

1131
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 2: and Pikett took the majority of drop back. So I

1132
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:01,719
Speaker 2: think a lot of what you saw from Philly side

1133
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 2: of the ball in that Week sixteen game, you can

1134
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 2: honestly kind of throw out the window. I mean, Jayden

1135
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 2: played great, made five touchdown passes, he was nine to

1136
00:57:09,520 --> 00:57:13,160
Speaker 2: eighty one in the ground. Saquon in both games went

1137
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 2: absolutely nuts in both games. I mean one hundred and

1138
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 2: fifty yards in one game on twenty nine carries, sixty

1139
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:23,480
Speaker 2: yards after contact. In the other game, one hundred and

1140
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 2: forty six yards, two touchdowns, fifty yards after contact. So

1141
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 2: to me, I look at both of those games and say, okay,

1142
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 2: well Philly could throw for thirty yards in this game

1143
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 2: and probably still win. But well, we could talk about

1144
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 2: this a little bit more, but break it down a

1145
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 2: little bit. Philly Washington was her thoughts.

1146
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, even the game Washington won, Saquon had over one

1147
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 3: hundred yards in the first quarter. The Eagles, who couldn't

1148
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:49,640
Speaker 3: score in the first quarter all season, scored twenty one

1149
00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:51,920
Speaker 3: and then effectively, if you kind of zoom out a

1150
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:54,320
Speaker 3: big picture, we've kept talking about Eagles number one defense

1151
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 3: since their bye week. Basically, the Eagles have been a

1152
00:57:57,160 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 3: flawless defense the entire season since that except for one quarter,

1153
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:04,600
Speaker 3: and the one quarter was against Washington and the game

1154
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 3: they lost because Philly was up twenty seven to fourteen

1155
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 3: even without Hurts most the game into the fourth quarter,

1156
00:58:10,520 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 3: and either their defense, I don't even know if they

1157
00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 3: were terrible as much as I think they just ran

1158
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:16,320
Speaker 3: out of gas. They were just on the field the

1159
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 3: whole second half. Because defense is not an isolated thing.

1160
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:23,800
Speaker 3: If your offense can't do anything, like, here's the problem.

1161
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 3: If Hurts can't pass the ball and then inevitably you

1162
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:28,600
Speaker 3: go three and out on a running drive where you

1163
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 3: can't move the ball and you get no first down.

1164
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:33,400
Speaker 3: Now the defense is right back on the field again.

1165
00:58:33,720 --> 00:58:37,920
Speaker 3: So I think looking at the game, did Philadelphia did

1166
00:58:38,240 --> 00:58:40,680
Speaker 3: Washington solve them a little bit and find some answers,

1167
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:44,320
Speaker 3: maybe or maybe the defense just got tired. I think

1168
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 3: we kind of like no wish what to expect on

1169
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:49,560
Speaker 3: that side. Like we know Jane Daniels are really good

1170
00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 3: and probably not gonna get a lot of help from

1171
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 3: like Bran Robinson to the run game. Here, we know

1172
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:56,520
Speaker 3: Philly's defense is pretty good. I don't know if I

1173
00:58:56,520 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 3: have any idea what's happening on other side. I don't

1174
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 3: know if Washington's defense is actually improved like they seem

1175
00:59:01,720 --> 00:59:04,960
Speaker 3: to be by some of the advanced metrics, because guess what,

1176
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 3: they've not been improved in the playoffs. They can't stop anybody.

1177
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 3: Tampa's numbers were really good against them. They just didn't

1178
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:15,240
Speaker 3: get on the field very much. Detroit Jamior Gibbs is

1179
00:59:15,280 --> 00:59:17,280
Speaker 3: running for like ten fifteen yards a touch every time

1180
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:20,520
Speaker 3: he gets the ball. They just had five turnovers. Washington

1181
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:23,640
Speaker 3: made those plays, they get credit, but like all the

1182
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 3: other plays they get credit for also, and there were

1183
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,240
Speaker 3: a lot of bad ones. So I don't know if

1184
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:29,960
Speaker 3: I trust the defense, But I don't know if I

1185
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:33,720
Speaker 3: trust Philadelphia's offense. I trusted them on the look ahead.

1186
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 3: I would have loved Eagles anything below seven. If Fertz

1187
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:40,240
Speaker 3: was healthy, I would have thought Sekuon Hurts, run the ball, defense,

1188
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 3: done defense and running get the win. Basically same kip

1189
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 3: I had against the Rams today. And now I don't know.

1190
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:50,640
Speaker 3: I can trust that because I still trust the defense,

1191
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 3: but I don't know if just running can work if

1192
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:55,200
Speaker 3: you don't have a quarterback that can really run either.

1193
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 3: That's part of the run game also, so I'm kind

1194
00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:00,320
Speaker 3: of stuck here. I don't have a play yet this one.

1195
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 3: I don't have a hot redown. I would kind of

1196
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:06,000
Speaker 3: lean under Washington's been an overteam this season, Philly more

1197
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 3: under the Hurts injury kind of pushes me that way,

1198
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 3: so that makes me scared. Also to lay the points,

1199
01:00:11,680 --> 01:00:14,280
Speaker 3: I lean Philly. Still. My numbers would have Philly just

1200
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 3: by maybe a point or so. But Jane Daniels rookie

1201
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 3: on the road Conference championship. There's a reason we don't

1202
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:24,880
Speaker 3: have a rookie starting in the Super Bowl yet, but

1203
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 3: it's gonna happen at some point. I did look up

1204
01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:31,200
Speaker 3: in bet Labs conference championships in the last two decades,

1205
01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:34,439
Speaker 3: only time that we have division rematches, we had four

1206
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:37,200
Speaker 3: of them. The favorite is four and now by six

1207
01:00:37,240 --> 01:00:40,240
Speaker 3: points a game, so pretty close games we never really

1208
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 3: had any big blowouts. They're three to one eights, but

1209
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 3: only by two points a game, so I think that's

1210
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 3: about what we have. I think Philadelphia barely gets over

1211
01:00:50,120 --> 01:00:52,520
Speaker 3: the line with a win. I don't know if I'm

1212
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 3: confident in a cover yet. And I think, like you

1213
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:57,280
Speaker 3: said at the top here, I think the line's gonna

1214
01:00:57,280 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 3: move one direction or the other, and I don't have

1215
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:02,040
Speaker 3: a sense of where it's gonna move. And if I

1216
01:01:02,080 --> 01:01:04,360
Speaker 3: feel good enough about Philly to want to bet them,

1217
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:07,280
Speaker 3: I probably will feel like it should have moved further

1218
01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:10,800
Speaker 3: above a touchdown anyway where I have the number initially,

1219
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 3: So I don't think the line's gonna go that far,

1220
01:01:13,600 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 3: And it is much to my advantage if I wait

1221
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 3: and it gets down to four or below the four.

1222
01:01:19,200 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 3: Now we're talking now, I've got some real value on

1223
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:24,040
Speaker 3: the number. So I don't know. I think this is

1224
01:01:24,040 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 3: gonna be a really tough game to bet because I

1225
01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 3: don't think we're gonna really know until we see them

1226
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:31,320
Speaker 3: on the field exactly what Jalen Hurts looks like, and

1227
01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 3: we're gonna kind of be playing the guessing game all week.

1228
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the one thing in terms of and

1229
01:01:37,600 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 2: at this time of year. I rarely try to talk

1230
01:01:40,200 --> 01:01:43,560
Speaker 2: about travel much because we've just all been through so much.

1231
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:47,520
Speaker 2: But it is pretty crazy that Philly hasn't played on

1232
01:01:47,560 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 2: the road since December twenty second. Against these Commanders, this

1233
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:57,280
Speaker 2: will be their fifth straight home game, and Washington on

1234
01:01:57,320 --> 01:02:00,000
Speaker 2: the other side, this will be their fourth straight road game.

1235
01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 2: So you do kind of have a situation where Washington

1236
01:02:04,280 --> 01:02:07,800
Speaker 2: has been bouncing around, they've been winning his underdogs kind

1237
01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 2: of wherever they go. But Philly has been hanging out.

1238
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 2: They've been at home forever. Using bet Labs and I

1239
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:16,640
Speaker 2: got to go deeper this week, I'm not sure we've

1240
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:19,280
Speaker 2: seen an example where you've got a team five straight

1241
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:22,840
Speaker 2: home games road team four straight road games in the playoffs.

1242
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 2: So that's a really crazy spot coming into this one.

1243
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:31,400
Speaker 2: In terms of injuries, the two were Quinjon Mitchell, which

1244
01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 2: I mean, forget Hurts. Hurts is the injury obviously everyone's

1245
01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 2: going to talk about. The other two would be Quinyon

1246
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 2: Mitchell and you mentioned Sam Cosmy. I feel like that

1247
01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 2: one is one that absolutely he's I believe done and

1248
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:45,120
Speaker 2: he's going to be done for a little bit of

1249
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:48,840
Speaker 2: next year. Yeah, he has the fourth most pass block

1250
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:52,600
Speaker 2: snaps for any guard, and you have fifty one guards

1251
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:55,680
Speaker 2: with five hundred plus passblock snaps, he's one of eleven

1252
01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:58,760
Speaker 2: with one sack allowed or less. I mean, he's been

1253
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 2: very good for them, and I think noticing some of

1254
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,600
Speaker 2: the data as I was quickly trying to get through

1255
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,479
Speaker 2: some of the Washington games, and I think Jaden does

1256
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:12,360
Speaker 2: like to go sometimes through those guard slots, So I

1257
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 2: would be a little worried here and definitely something to

1258
01:03:15,520 --> 01:03:19,560
Speaker 2: look into a little further. So that's definitely my note

1259
01:03:19,560 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 2: on this one. Because and then from the other side,

1260
01:03:22,120 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 2: the pressure on Hurts has been a little odd. I mean,

1261
01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:29,320
Speaker 2: at five incompletions in this game and seven sacks in

1262
01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:33,920
Speaker 2: two playoff games, Interior offensive linemen have allowed fifteen pressures

1263
01:03:33,960 --> 01:03:37,720
Speaker 2: and four sacks on fifty eight dropbacks twenty six percent

1264
01:03:37,760 --> 01:03:41,400
Speaker 2: pressure rate. Not good at all. Hurts sacked, I believe

1265
01:03:41,520 --> 01:03:44,200
Speaker 2: nine times in two games. So I mean, is that

1266
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:47,640
Speaker 2: going to come to play outdoors against this Washington team.

1267
01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:52,600
Speaker 2: I'm not exactly sure. Washington isn't exactly the highest pressure

1268
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 2: rate on their defense, but I do feel like nine

1269
01:03:55,080 --> 01:03:57,280
Speaker 2: sacks and two games is something to talk about.

1270
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:00,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so too. It Hurts is definitely been

1271
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:03,560
Speaker 3: for his career a guy that holds the ball too

1272
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 3: long and invites that pressure. And really Jane Daniels as well,

1273
01:04:07,800 --> 01:04:11,040
Speaker 3: very differently, but Jane Daniels holds the ball a long time,

1274
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:14,160
Speaker 3: just trying to make things happen, and then scrambles very quickly.

1275
01:04:14,200 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 3: But both of those guys, I think that is a story.

1276
01:04:16,120 --> 01:04:18,360
Speaker 3: And we saw Daniels eating a lot of sacks toward

1277
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:21,400
Speaker 3: the end of the season. That offensive line really outperformed

1278
01:04:21,520 --> 01:04:25,080
Speaker 3: expectations early. They were like bottom five in my preseason rankings,

1279
01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 3: really looked good, then picked up some injuries, and remember

1280
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:31,480
Speaker 3: that kind of dip in a month where Washington looked like,

1281
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:34,040
Speaker 3: oh we hit the cliff cliff. Turned out that probably

1282
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 3: was just injuries. The offensive line was rough and Jayden

1283
01:04:37,440 --> 01:04:40,160
Speaker 3: had that rib injury. Well, now the offensive line is

1284
01:04:40,200 --> 01:04:43,240
Speaker 3: trending bad in that direction. Again, that definitely looks like

1285
01:04:43,280 --> 01:04:45,880
Speaker 3: a problem as well. So I think again all of

1286
01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:49,000
Speaker 3: that leads me more toward the under on this one,

1287
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 3: especially with a tuttal that's relatively high right now. If

1288
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:55,600
Speaker 3: we're not trusting Washington's line and we're not trusting Jalen Hurts,

1289
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 3: the score on the other side. I know Washington just

1290
01:04:59,120 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 3: played in like a night one thousand point game. It's

1291
01:05:01,280 --> 01:05:03,560
Speaker 3: hard to take an under on that one. But I

1292
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:05,440
Speaker 3: feel like if I had to make any pick right now,

1293
01:05:05,440 --> 01:05:07,080
Speaker 3: that's probably the direction I would be leaning.

1294
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 2: All Right, well, I think are we comfortable moving on

1295
01:05:10,400 --> 01:05:11,400
Speaker 2: to a buffalo case here?

1296
01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:12,080
Speaker 3: Let's do it.

1297
01:05:12,200 --> 01:05:15,439
Speaker 2: Okay, why don't you start with your hot read, talk

1298
01:05:15,440 --> 01:05:17,800
Speaker 2: about your pick a little bit, and then I will

1299
01:05:17,800 --> 01:05:20,200
Speaker 2: go through a few stats on the matchup, hot rap

1300
01:05:21,000 --> 01:05:22,080
Speaker 2: both day.

1301
01:05:22,360 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 1: On ice rights, ice cream houril trade.

1302
01:05:29,600 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 3: So I'm on Chiefs minus one and a half, and

1303
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:34,480
Speaker 3: I knew right away once I started digging to this. Okay,

1304
01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:36,720
Speaker 3: I didn't even know I did here, but I guess

1305
01:05:36,760 --> 01:05:40,240
Speaker 3: I'm on the Chiefs here because this is gonna sound crazy,

1306
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:43,280
Speaker 3: but my numbers, my models make this something more like

1307
01:05:43,360 --> 01:05:45,400
Speaker 3: Chiefs minus three and a half, even as high as

1308
01:05:45,400 --> 01:05:47,560
Speaker 3: four and a half or five points. I have the

1309
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:50,520
Speaker 3: Bills a clear tier below what I thought was a

1310
01:05:50,560 --> 01:05:53,120
Speaker 3: top four in the NFL, and we've been tweeting it

1311
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:55,600
Speaker 3: like the Bills are in that top tier. But my

1312
01:05:55,720 --> 01:05:57,880
Speaker 3: model and my numbers have not treated that way like

1313
01:05:57,920 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 3: the DVAA and models. A lot of models out there

1314
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:02,280
Speaker 3: have not felt like the Bills were really in that

1315
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:04,560
Speaker 3: top tier of teams, so I kind of go down

1316
01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:07,760
Speaker 3: the roster here. I know that the Chiefs offensive line

1317
01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:10,800
Speaker 3: has not been great this season, the interior great, the

1318
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:13,440
Speaker 3: tackle is not great. I know their receivers have not

1319
01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:16,840
Speaker 3: been great this season. It's problematic that I still like

1320
01:06:16,920 --> 01:06:19,360
Speaker 3: their receivers better than Buffalo's and I still like their

1321
01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:22,960
Speaker 3: blocking better than Buffalo's. Because I like the Chiefs defense

1322
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 3: better than Buffalo's for sure. I like their coaching better

1323
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:29,080
Speaker 3: than Buffalo. I really like their special teams. That's a

1324
01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:31,600
Speaker 3: huge advantage for Kansas City in this one. And I

1325
01:06:31,640 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 3: still like the quarterback better. It's close, but I still

1326
01:06:34,800 --> 01:06:37,240
Speaker 3: like Pat rather than Josh. So what do I like

1327
01:06:37,280 --> 01:06:39,880
Speaker 3: better for Buffalo? They can run the ball better, for sure,

1328
01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:42,520
Speaker 3: that's an advantage here, But is that enough. I don't

1329
01:06:42,560 --> 01:06:45,400
Speaker 3: think it's enough, because if you running the ball is

1330
01:06:45,440 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 3: not enough to make up for all those other advantages there,

1331
01:06:48,600 --> 01:06:50,360
Speaker 3: then all that's left is kind of the case I

1332
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 3: had for Buffalo today, which was Josh Allen out playing

1333
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:56,560
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes. And Josh Allen can do that, but I

1334
01:06:56,560 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 3: don't know that I want to bet on that happening

1335
01:06:58,840 --> 01:07:01,400
Speaker 3: on the road in a spot where we've seen him

1336
01:07:01,440 --> 01:07:03,600
Speaker 3: go ahead to head with Mahomes but not be able

1337
01:07:03,640 --> 01:07:07,560
Speaker 3: to do it. To me, Buffalo's defense is the main

1338
01:07:07,600 --> 01:07:09,440
Speaker 3: reason for the pick here. I think these defenses are

1339
01:07:09,520 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 3: moving in opposite directions right now. Chiefs defense had a

1340
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:15,760
Speaker 3: dip in the middle of the season, but that stretch

1341
01:07:15,800 --> 01:07:19,880
Speaker 3: before the Week eighteen nothing game, they were top five again,

1342
01:07:20,360 --> 01:07:22,280
Speaker 3: a little worse against the run. I do think Buffalo

1343
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:24,600
Speaker 3: can run, but the Bills have faded. They're kind of

1344
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:26,880
Speaker 3: more toward back of the top ten down the stretch,

1345
01:07:27,240 --> 01:07:29,040
Speaker 3: and I didn't think that they were very good even

1346
01:07:29,080 --> 01:07:32,440
Speaker 3: today against the Ravens. They got the turnovers, but you

1347
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:35,160
Speaker 3: allowed twenty five points to the Ravens in a bad

1348
01:07:35,200 --> 01:07:37,640
Speaker 3: weather game, even turning over three times. This is not

1349
01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:41,080
Speaker 3: a great performance. Bills have faced a top twelve offense.

1350
01:07:41,640 --> 01:07:44,880
Speaker 3: They allowed twenty nine point three points a game in

1351
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:48,000
Speaker 3: those games this season, so that's not a great number.

1352
01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:51,439
Speaker 3: Now the Chiefs, by DVOA still qualify as a top

1353
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 3: twelve offense. It's not great. I have to tell you

1354
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:55,800
Speaker 3: that part. That kindo tells us what we think about

1355
01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:58,800
Speaker 3: them this season. But I like the matchup for Kansas City.

1356
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 3: They prefer to run out the middle. We talked about

1357
01:08:01,000 --> 01:08:04,320
Speaker 3: that with Buffalo, where they're better defending outside on the run,

1358
01:08:04,520 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 3: they're less good inside. We saw Baltimore get the ball

1359
01:08:07,160 --> 01:08:09,400
Speaker 3: moving up the middle. I think the Chiefs can get

1360
01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:11,640
Speaker 3: a little bit of running more than usually do. And

1361
01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:14,720
Speaker 3: mostly what have we said about Buffalo both games. I've

1362
01:08:14,720 --> 01:08:17,960
Speaker 3: been betting running backs to do well against Buffalo. Why

1363
01:08:18,280 --> 01:08:20,479
Speaker 3: because they don't defend short passes as well, and they

1364
01:08:20,479 --> 01:08:22,880
Speaker 3: don't defend the middle of the field. Well, that is

1365
01:08:22,920 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 3: where Patrick Mahomes lives. Now it sucks. I don't want

1366
01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 3: him to live there. I want him to live down

1367
01:08:27,439 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 3: the field. He had the number two most short passes

1368
01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:34,080
Speaker 3: in the league. This is Xavier Worthy season and Travis

1369
01:08:34,320 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 3: Kelsey season, so DraftKings already has lines up. I got

1370
01:08:38,360 --> 01:08:40,120
Speaker 3: a couple props for you already because I think both

1371
01:08:40,120 --> 01:08:42,760
Speaker 3: these lines go up. Xavi're worthy over four and a

1372
01:08:42,760 --> 01:08:45,800
Speaker 3: half catches minus one thirty five quick slip for both

1373
01:08:45,800 --> 01:08:47,439
Speaker 3: of these will be in the link for you there.

1374
01:08:48,000 --> 01:08:50,280
Speaker 3: So this is These are bonus prop hot reads, our

1375
01:08:50,320 --> 01:08:53,920
Speaker 3: first prop pot reads ever. I think Travis Kelce I'm

1376
01:08:53,920 --> 01:08:56,360
Speaker 3: going receiving yards on him over sixty five and a half.

1377
01:08:56,520 --> 01:08:58,800
Speaker 3: I think that one's already going up as well. He's

1378
01:08:58,800 --> 01:09:02,320
Speaker 3: ad seventy one yard are more in fourteen straight playoff

1379
01:09:02,360 --> 01:09:04,960
Speaker 3: games now, so that line is rising. We're probably not

1380
01:09:04,960 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 3: getting get another forty nine yard are in there. But

1381
01:09:07,280 --> 01:09:11,439
Speaker 3: I think this is a game where the Chiefs run

1382
01:09:11,520 --> 01:09:14,559
Speaker 3: the ball quote unquote by getting it to Worthy and

1383
01:09:14,640 --> 01:09:18,360
Speaker 3: to Kelsey and playing the underneath game and just controlling

1384
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:22,200
Speaker 3: the the clock that way. Especially, I think Buffalo that

1385
01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 3: last drive against Baltimore today Taron Johnson went out. That's

1386
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:28,400
Speaker 3: a big injury for them. I think that one looms

1387
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 3: large injury wise for Buffalo as well. So I like

1388
01:09:32,240 --> 01:09:36,240
Speaker 3: Kansas City here conference championship matchup when you're the one

1389
01:09:36,280 --> 01:09:39,720
Speaker 3: seed last couple decades, twenty and five straight up as

1390
01:09:39,760 --> 01:09:42,559
Speaker 3: the favorite eight to o straight up with at least

1391
01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:45,720
Speaker 3: eleven percent better win rate, that's the Chiefs here. They're

1392
01:09:45,760 --> 01:09:49,160
Speaker 3: fifteen to two versus thirteen and four for Buffalo, eight

1393
01:09:49,200 --> 01:09:51,679
Speaker 3: and oh, straight up winning by sixteen and a half

1394
01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:54,439
Speaker 3: points a game. I'm not predicting that. I don't think

1395
01:09:54,479 --> 01:09:56,640
Speaker 3: you'll catch me on a Chiefs escalator sixteen and a

1396
01:09:56,640 --> 01:10:00,920
Speaker 3: half on this one. But I think under I have

1397
01:10:00,960 --> 01:10:03,840
Speaker 3: to feel good about the Chiefs at home with Mahomes,

1398
01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:07,360
Speaker 3: and I think with the better roster around, because I

1399
01:10:07,360 --> 01:10:10,360
Speaker 3: think Buffalo's roster has not been great. It's a similar

1400
01:10:10,400 --> 01:10:13,240
Speaker 3: bet to the but I just lost betting on Baltimore.

1401
01:10:13,600 --> 01:10:16,240
Speaker 3: But I think that the numbers we saw from Baltimore

1402
01:10:16,320 --> 01:10:18,160
Speaker 3: was that they were the better team, the better roster.

1403
01:10:18,280 --> 01:10:21,280
Speaker 3: They just made some mistakes. I don't think the Chiefs

1404
01:10:21,280 --> 01:10:23,040
Speaker 3: are gonna make those mistakes, so the Bills are gonna

1405
01:10:23,040 --> 01:10:26,320
Speaker 3: have to actually beat them their own way without finding

1406
01:10:26,320 --> 01:10:28,640
Speaker 3: the mistakes that way, and the Chiefs don't do that.

1407
01:10:28,800 --> 01:10:31,679
Speaker 3: So Chiefs minus one and a half. That's the official

1408
01:10:31,680 --> 01:10:33,960
Speaker 3: hot red pick. Now, I will say this, you can

1409
01:10:34,000 --> 01:10:35,880
Speaker 3: play that one in the play that one on the

1410
01:10:35,960 --> 01:10:38,800
Speaker 3: quick slip. The link is there for you. I don't

1411
01:10:38,880 --> 01:10:40,880
Speaker 3: know if you need to rush to play this one

1412
01:10:40,920 --> 01:10:43,519
Speaker 3: like a traditional hot read. I only we're getting to

1413
01:10:43,520 --> 01:10:45,720
Speaker 3: a minus three here because Buffalo is gonna get way

1414
01:10:45,720 --> 01:10:49,160
Speaker 3: too much action that way. It wouldn't stun me to

1415
01:10:49,200 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 3: see this move towards Buffalo a little bit. It wouldn't

1416
01:10:52,240 --> 01:10:54,960
Speaker 3: shock me if we might even get like near rope

1417
01:10:55,000 --> 01:10:57,759
Speaker 3: an even odds money line in that direction that Kansas

1418
01:10:57,800 --> 01:11:00,519
Speaker 3: City is minus one twenty right now. I don't think

1419
01:11:00,560 --> 01:11:02,920
Speaker 3: you need to run too back to the Chiefs right now.

1420
01:11:03,280 --> 01:11:06,080
Speaker 3: We're not going to certainly get past the three. But

1421
01:11:07,120 --> 01:11:09,160
Speaker 3: I could tell at the end of the day, Chiefs

1422
01:11:09,200 --> 01:11:10,679
Speaker 3: is a sid I'm going to be on in this one.

1423
01:11:11,120 --> 01:11:13,120
Speaker 3: And here we are again, after all my poop pooing

1424
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:15,880
Speaker 3: them all season long, picking the Chiefs on the hot

1425
01:11:16,000 --> 01:11:18,519
Speaker 3: raid to get back to the super Bowl. I guess

1426
01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:19,640
Speaker 3: that's Patrick Mahomes for you.

1427
01:11:21,960 --> 01:11:24,080
Speaker 2: I mean, when I was looking at the data, I

1428
01:11:24,200 --> 01:11:27,120
Speaker 2: tried to look at the previous matchups case Buffalo. It

1429
01:11:27,240 --> 01:11:31,160
Speaker 2: is worth noting so Buffalo obviously beats Kansas City previous meeting.

1430
01:11:31,520 --> 01:11:34,000
Speaker 2: I haven't looked this up yet. I assume Patrick Mahomes

1431
01:11:34,040 --> 01:11:39,080
Speaker 2: pretty decent unrevenge spots. It is pretty fun that Week eleven,

1432
01:11:39,640 --> 01:11:43,040
Speaker 2: we've had Washington Philly and Buffalo Kansas City both in

1433
01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:45,880
Speaker 2: the same week, and now that is the conference championship.

1434
01:11:45,880 --> 01:11:48,439
Speaker 2: I thought that was kind of fun. I will also

1435
01:11:48,479 --> 01:11:51,120
Speaker 2: say this from the week eleven game Buffalo Kansas City,

1436
01:11:51,560 --> 01:11:55,639
Speaker 2: Khalil Shakir twelve targets, seventy yards, eight receptions. I think

1437
01:11:55,680 --> 01:11:57,640
Speaker 2: he will be important in this game. If we like

1438
01:11:57,720 --> 01:12:01,479
Speaker 2: Kansas City, he liked Buffalo trailing, I think he is

1439
01:12:01,520 --> 01:12:04,200
Speaker 2: a good target to try to help Buffalo get upfield

1440
01:12:04,200 --> 01:12:07,880
Speaker 2: in the middle of the field as well. The other

1441
01:12:07,920 --> 01:12:11,400
Speaker 2: one is this, I looked at Mahomes's last five games

1442
01:12:11,479 --> 01:12:15,360
Speaker 2: versus Buffalo, all since twenty twenty two playoffs. Five games.

1443
01:12:15,720 --> 01:12:19,400
Speaker 2: He has set six passing touchdowns and no picks in

1444
01:12:19,439 --> 01:12:24,000
Speaker 2: those games in a clean pocket under pressure, five touchdowns,

1445
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:28,519
Speaker 2: five interceptions when he is under when he is in

1446
01:12:28,600 --> 01:12:31,759
Speaker 2: play action or in a screen. During those five games,

1447
01:12:31,800 --> 01:12:34,800
Speaker 2: four touchdowns, no picks. What this tells me is this,

1448
01:12:35,760 --> 01:12:37,920
Speaker 2: if they don't get to him and let him do

1449
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:40,559
Speaker 2: exactly what he wants to do, whether that's a clean pocket,

1450
01:12:40,920 --> 01:12:44,719
Speaker 2: play action, or screens, basically ten touchdowns and no picks,

1451
01:12:45,040 --> 01:12:46,360
Speaker 2: I mean you're going to be in a lot of

1452
01:12:46,400 --> 01:12:49,760
Speaker 2: trouble if Casey gets to do their game plan. If

1453
01:12:49,800 --> 01:12:51,840
Speaker 2: you get in the middle of that game plan and

1454
01:12:51,880 --> 01:12:53,000
Speaker 2: you do a little bit of what he did to

1455
01:12:53,080 --> 01:12:57,240
Speaker 2: Lamar today, Mahomes has five touchdowns and five interceptions. You're

1456
01:12:57,320 --> 01:13:00,720
Speaker 2: going to figure out away because they're listen. Has lots

1457
01:13:00,720 --> 01:13:03,519
Speaker 2: of weapons, but they're not explosive, and it's a little

1458
01:13:03,640 --> 01:13:06,559
Speaker 2: weird thing to say, because, like you said, it's not

1459
01:13:06,680 --> 01:13:09,000
Speaker 2: truly DNK and dunk, but it's not like they're going

1460
01:13:09,000 --> 01:13:12,919
Speaker 2: twenty yards downfield. So if you get into that pocket

1461
01:13:12,960 --> 01:13:15,439
Speaker 2: and make him kind of hop around a little bit,

1462
01:13:15,520 --> 01:13:19,120
Speaker 2: I think you're going to find success. So that's my

1463
01:13:19,360 --> 01:13:23,240
Speaker 2: angle on this one. Two trends home unders from a

1464
01:13:23,280 --> 01:13:27,280
Speaker 2: Homes forty two twenty seven and one sixty one percent

1465
01:13:27,640 --> 01:13:30,040
Speaker 2: forty eight and a half. Decently high, but kind of

1466
01:13:30,040 --> 01:13:33,040
Speaker 2: in the middle there. And then you mentioned Kelsey. Here

1467
01:13:33,120 --> 01:13:37,080
Speaker 2: is what he's done at home against Buffalo. Six receptions

1468
01:13:37,120 --> 01:13:39,760
Speaker 2: eighty three yards, eight for one oh eight, eight for

1469
01:13:39,880 --> 01:13:43,919
Speaker 2: ninety six, six for fifty seven, thirteen of one eighteen.

1470
01:13:44,240 --> 01:13:48,280
Speaker 2: So I just feel like in this game doesn't matter

1471
01:13:48,360 --> 01:13:52,080
Speaker 2: this game script, whether it's positive or negative, He's going

1472
01:13:52,160 --> 01:13:53,559
Speaker 2: to be a part of it. It's the reason I

1473
01:13:53,640 --> 01:13:56,679
Speaker 2: kind of like Noah Gray as well. I looked on DraftKings,

1474
01:13:56,720 --> 01:14:00,000
Speaker 2: I didn't see Gray available, but I do think if

1475
01:14:00,120 --> 01:14:02,240
Speaker 2: is one and a half receptions, if it's like ten

1476
01:14:02,280 --> 01:14:05,360
Speaker 2: and eleven twelve yards like he was getting looks in

1477
01:14:05,400 --> 01:14:08,000
Speaker 2: this game as well, because Mahomes is living in the

1478
01:14:08,000 --> 01:14:10,040
Speaker 2: middle of the field. So I do feel like there

1479
01:14:10,080 --> 01:14:13,000
Speaker 2: is an opportunity there. So that is my analysis on

1480
01:14:13,040 --> 01:14:14,880
Speaker 2: this one. I don't know if you have anything else,

1481
01:14:15,160 --> 01:14:17,479
Speaker 2: but yeah, yeah, I.

1482
01:14:17,400 --> 01:14:21,120
Speaker 3: Had a similar one too. I was looking immediately, of course,

1483
01:14:21,160 --> 01:14:23,120
Speaker 3: look for a running back. I could lose money on

1484
01:14:23,320 --> 01:14:26,680
Speaker 3: betting against running back reception yards. No Justice Hill, no

1485
01:14:26,760 --> 01:14:29,519
Speaker 3: Javonte Willing was not working out for me. But if

1486
01:14:29,520 --> 01:14:32,920
Speaker 3: I can get a Sama Jp Ryan over one half

1487
01:14:32,960 --> 01:14:35,479
Speaker 3: of a catch like I want, I was like, okay,

1488
01:14:35,520 --> 01:14:35,920
Speaker 3: who is it?

1489
01:14:35,960 --> 01:14:36,080
Speaker 2: Is it?

1490
01:14:36,080 --> 01:14:38,120
Speaker 3: Pacheco is a hunt? It turns out it's neither they

1491
01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:41,280
Speaker 3: Neither one of them catches passes, but Samaji still seems

1492
01:14:41,280 --> 01:14:42,720
Speaker 3: how to get on the field a little bit and

1493
01:14:42,760 --> 01:14:44,680
Speaker 3: catch a pass every now and then. So I might

1494
01:14:44,720 --> 01:14:46,519
Speaker 3: have an eye on that one, just off the top

1495
01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:48,639
Speaker 3: of my head. Because we know this matchup so well,

1496
01:14:48,920 --> 01:14:50,479
Speaker 3: I was just thinking about, okay, what else will I

1497
01:14:50,520 --> 01:14:53,080
Speaker 3: be checking this game? So things that I may come

1498
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:55,040
Speaker 3: back to when we get to our best bets. I

1499
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:57,240
Speaker 3: love to bet both teams to score in the fourth

1500
01:14:57,280 --> 01:14:59,880
Speaker 3: quarter in this matchup. That's something that has come off.

1501
01:15:00,000 --> 01:15:02,040
Speaker 3: And just because we know we get the fireworks late,

1502
01:15:02,360 --> 01:15:04,280
Speaker 3: we often see kind of a slow build up and

1503
01:15:04,320 --> 01:15:06,439
Speaker 3: then fireworks at the end of the game, so keep

1504
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:08,840
Speaker 3: an eye on that one. Also. I love to bet

1505
01:15:09,040 --> 01:15:12,200
Speaker 3: both Mahomes and Josh Allen rushing overs in this matchup,

1506
01:15:12,600 --> 01:15:15,120
Speaker 3: just because this is it, man, you empty the can

1507
01:15:15,160 --> 01:15:17,400
Speaker 3: and this is what the whole thing is for. So

1508
01:15:17,439 --> 01:15:20,960
Speaker 3: we see them, really see them run a lot. And

1509
01:15:21,280 --> 01:15:24,439
Speaker 3: usually in this matchup, both of those rushing lines open

1510
01:15:24,479 --> 01:15:26,760
Speaker 3: and then immediately start to move up. And if you're

1511
01:15:26,760 --> 01:15:29,360
Speaker 3: talking like twenty two versus twenty nine on the line,

1512
01:15:29,360 --> 01:15:32,000
Speaker 3: that's a huge difference. So definitely keep an eye on

1513
01:15:32,040 --> 01:15:34,160
Speaker 3: both of those. The other thing too, just think a

1514
01:15:34,200 --> 01:15:37,639
Speaker 3: big picture. I find it hard to believe with Jalen

1515
01:15:37,720 --> 01:15:41,519
Speaker 3: Hurts injured, especially that I'm not going to feel good

1516
01:15:41,560 --> 01:15:45,799
Speaker 3: about whoever wins this game being a relatively clear favorite

1517
01:15:45,840 --> 01:15:48,040
Speaker 3: in the super Bowl. So I think if you feel

1518
01:15:48,080 --> 01:15:50,719
Speaker 3: like you have a side here, maybe with the money

1519
01:15:50,760 --> 01:15:53,320
Speaker 3: line looking so even, you don't play the money line,

1520
01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:55,880
Speaker 3: maybe you invest in the super Bowl ticket and you

1521
01:15:55,880 --> 01:15:57,960
Speaker 3: get out ahead and say, Okay, if I'm right about

1522
01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:00,360
Speaker 3: my pick here, now i have a ticket in the

1523
01:16:00,400 --> 01:16:03,200
Speaker 3: super Bowl, We're having much better odds, and I've got

1524
01:16:03,200 --> 01:16:05,080
Speaker 3: some options to go from there. So I think future

1525
01:16:05,160 --> 01:16:07,240
Speaker 3: is big picture that might be the way to play,

1526
01:16:07,280 --> 01:16:09,679
Speaker 3: either the Chiefs or the Bells. Whoever goes out ahead,

1527
01:16:09,680 --> 01:16:12,120
Speaker 3: you're gonna have Alan or Mahomes in the Super Bowl,

1528
01:16:12,360 --> 01:16:14,439
Speaker 3: and I're gonna feel pretty good about having one of

1529
01:16:14,479 --> 01:16:16,840
Speaker 3: those guys and getting the AFC ticket that way too.

1530
01:16:17,000 --> 01:16:19,519
Speaker 3: So I think those are other angles to keep paying

1531
01:16:19,520 --> 01:16:22,360
Speaker 3: attention to, and we'll see which of them pop up

1532
01:16:22,360 --> 01:16:23,920
Speaker 3: in the best spots when they come back later in

1533
01:16:23,960 --> 01:16:24,240
Speaker 3: the week.

1534
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:26,680
Speaker 2: Sorry, I'm gonna read this off my phone, but I

1535
01:16:26,680 --> 01:16:28,720
Speaker 2: feel like the rushing yard props that are already up

1536
01:16:28,760 --> 01:16:31,960
Speaker 2: for this game are kind of fascinating since the lead back,

1537
01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:34,920
Speaker 2: I would say of the two teams is James Cook,

1538
01:16:35,800 --> 01:16:37,720
Speaker 2: which is fifty six and a half rushing yards, but

1539
01:16:37,800 --> 01:16:40,559
Speaker 2: like Allen's forty seven and a half, Cream Hunt thirty

1540
01:16:40,560 --> 01:16:42,840
Speaker 2: five and a half, Pa Checko thirty four and a half,

1541
01:16:42,880 --> 01:16:45,599
Speaker 2: Mahomes twenty six and a half, they're all kind of

1542
01:16:45,640 --> 01:16:48,960
Speaker 2: in that like, we don't exactly know who's gonna get

1543
01:16:48,960 --> 01:16:51,639
Speaker 2: the ball or for how many carries, but we'll let

1544
01:16:51,680 --> 01:16:54,040
Speaker 2: you guess. I know a lot of people liked Pacheco

1545
01:16:54,120 --> 01:16:57,600
Speaker 2: in this game today, and he did yesterday, and he

1546
01:16:57,680 --> 01:17:01,200
Speaker 2: did virtually nothing in the game. Now opens at thirty

1547
01:17:01,240 --> 01:17:04,040
Speaker 2: four and a half, we say to yourself, thirty four

1548
01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:07,240
Speaker 2: and a half, like, if Casey has the lead, like,

1549
01:17:07,520 --> 01:17:10,240
Speaker 2: how many other options do they have? That one just

1550
01:17:10,240 --> 01:17:13,360
Speaker 2: feels so low to me if you like Kansas City.

1551
01:17:13,720 --> 01:17:17,640
Speaker 2: But distribution of carries I think is something that is

1552
01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:21,320
Speaker 2: a little bit difficult with Hunt especially they kind of

1553
01:17:21,439 --> 01:17:24,160
Speaker 2: like his battering ram style that I feel like they

1554
01:17:24,160 --> 01:17:28,200
Speaker 2: don't exactly have right now with Pacheco, which I think

1555
01:17:28,320 --> 01:17:30,120
Speaker 2: I just have to look into that more, but kind

1556
01:17:30,120 --> 01:17:32,880
Speaker 2: of fascinating. They both basically have the same number on

1557
01:17:32,920 --> 01:17:35,599
Speaker 2: the prop right now. But that's it. That's all I've got.

1558
01:17:35,680 --> 01:17:37,479
Speaker 2: You have anything else, I think that's it.

1559
01:17:37,560 --> 01:17:38,880
Speaker 3: We're going to do it all again. We get to

1560
01:17:38,920 --> 01:17:41,559
Speaker 3: the best bats and we're down to three games left.

1561
01:17:41,560 --> 01:17:42,519
Speaker 3: We're here, all right.

1562
01:17:42,560 --> 01:17:45,120
Speaker 2: Before we wrap up, let's hear from Patrick Everson from

1563
01:17:45,200 --> 01:17:47,719
Speaker 2: Vegas Insiders and how things looked in Las Vegas.

1564
01:17:47,920 --> 01:17:49,599
Speaker 1: All right, Evan, thanks a lot for having me back

1565
01:17:49,680 --> 01:17:54,120
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast to recap the division around weekend.

1566
01:17:54,120 --> 01:17:57,160
Speaker 1: This is a really not necessarily a good weekend for

1567
01:17:57,200 --> 01:17:59,519
Speaker 1: the public betting masses. They had their pockets and I'll

1568
01:17:59,520 --> 01:18:01,559
Speaker 1: explain that in a few minutes.

1569
01:18:01,600 --> 01:18:02,320
Speaker 2: But look.

1570
01:18:02,320 --> 01:18:04,479
Speaker 1: The elephant in the room is obviously the Saturday night

1571
01:18:04,520 --> 01:18:09,759
Speaker 1: game the Washington Commanders nine point underdogs at the Detroit Lions,

1572
01:18:10,000 --> 01:18:14,240
Speaker 1: winning outright forty five thirty one, leading by double digits

1573
01:18:14,240 --> 01:18:17,000
Speaker 1: for significant portions of that game, including almost the entire

1574
01:18:17,160 --> 01:18:20,880
Speaker 1: fourth quarter. And it was welcomed by the books. I mean,

1575
01:18:20,960 --> 01:18:23,840
Speaker 1: you had, you know, from early October, mid October maybe

1576
01:18:23,920 --> 01:18:26,280
Speaker 1: to you know, through almost the end of the season. Basically,

1577
01:18:26,840 --> 01:18:29,680
Speaker 1: the public did great, which we're certainly a happy for.

1578
01:18:29,840 --> 01:18:32,880
Speaker 1: But the public did great against the bookmakers. Week after week.

1579
01:18:33,560 --> 01:18:35,799
Speaker 1: A lot of favorites won a lot of key favorites

1580
01:18:35,840 --> 01:18:40,320
Speaker 1: one so moneyline parlays were cashing constantly. Teasers were cashing

1581
01:18:40,360 --> 01:18:42,800
Speaker 1: constantly for a good two and a half months. So

1582
01:18:43,240 --> 01:18:46,960
Speaker 1: this is probably the sportsbook's best weekend in quite some time,

1583
01:18:47,040 --> 01:18:51,200
Speaker 1: and primarily due to the Commander's winning outright, Detroit was

1584
01:18:51,280 --> 01:18:53,240
Speaker 1: in the money line parlays this weekend. Most of the

1585
01:18:53,280 --> 01:18:57,320
Speaker 1: money line parlays were basically chiefs to the Lions to

1586
01:18:57,400 --> 01:19:00,800
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Even more so chiefs to the Lions to

1587
01:19:00,840 --> 01:19:04,320
Speaker 1: the Eagles to Ohio State in Monday night's college football

1588
01:19:04,320 --> 01:19:08,080
Speaker 1: Playoff championship game, so by Detroit losing outright. All those

1589
01:19:08,080 --> 01:19:11,439
Speaker 1: money line parlays are gone, all the teasers are gone

1590
01:19:11,720 --> 01:19:15,559
Speaker 1: by them losing outright. Scott Shelton Beham GM Nevada, so

1591
01:19:15,640 --> 01:19:18,240
Speaker 1: up and down Las Vegas Boulevard. He told me after

1592
01:19:18,240 --> 01:19:20,160
Speaker 1: that game, he said, we're in a great spot with

1593
01:19:20,360 --> 01:19:23,120
Speaker 1: all the teasers and the money line parlays getting wiped out,

1594
01:19:23,439 --> 01:19:25,360
Speaker 1: and he said, basically, the betters will have to start

1595
01:19:25,400 --> 01:19:27,360
Speaker 1: over on Sunday. So they had to start over Sunday

1596
01:19:27,400 --> 01:19:31,559
Speaker 1: morning red line up some parlays and moneyline parlys and

1597
01:19:31,560 --> 01:19:34,320
Speaker 1: teasers and stuff with the remaining games because everything got

1598
01:19:34,320 --> 01:19:36,240
Speaker 1: so wiped out, which is just a huge advantage for

1599
01:19:36,280 --> 01:19:39,760
Speaker 1: the books. So they did really multiple sports books again

1600
01:19:40,160 --> 01:19:43,880
Speaker 1: did really really well to the Commander's winning outright, which

1601
01:19:43,880 --> 01:19:47,439
Speaker 1: probably doesn't surprise anybody. Now. The Chiefs Texans game kind

1602
01:19:47,479 --> 01:19:50,960
Speaker 1: of interesting because, as all of you probably know, the

1603
01:19:51,000 --> 01:19:53,519
Speaker 1: Chiefs took that intentional safety late. The Chiefs were winning

1604
01:19:53,520 --> 01:19:55,919
Speaker 1: and covering that game at all numbers, but it closed

1605
01:19:55,920 --> 01:19:59,040
Speaker 1: at nine and a half and the Chiefs intentionally took

1606
01:19:59,080 --> 01:20:01,400
Speaker 1: a safety at the end to avoid any chance of

1607
01:20:01,439 --> 01:20:05,360
Speaker 1: a blocked punt for a touchdown or any other disorder

1608
01:20:05,360 --> 01:20:07,880
Speaker 1: that could happen late in that game, and because of that,

1609
01:20:08,320 --> 01:20:11,320
Speaker 1: Chiefs win by nine. So everybody who had Houston nine

1610
01:20:11,360 --> 01:20:14,320
Speaker 1: and a half covered, everybody who had Chiefs eight and

1611
01:20:14,360 --> 01:20:16,600
Speaker 1: a half, which was a number that was available for

1612
01:20:16,680 --> 01:20:19,160
Speaker 1: a good chunk of the week covered, and anybody who

1613
01:20:19,160 --> 01:20:21,479
Speaker 1: had nine on either side got refunds. So that was

1614
01:20:21,479 --> 01:20:23,240
Speaker 1: something that really didn't set well with a couple of

1615
01:20:23,240 --> 01:20:25,679
Speaker 1: sports books. The super Book certainly didn't like it landing

1616
01:20:25,720 --> 01:20:28,640
Speaker 1: on nine and so not necessarily a good result, but

1617
01:20:29,479 --> 01:20:33,160
Speaker 1: hardly enough to overcome what the books pulled in by

1618
01:20:33,479 --> 01:20:35,960
Speaker 1: in that second game Saturday, Washington winning outright. Then you

1619
01:20:36,080 --> 01:20:40,479
Speaker 1: got the Eagles game or Eagles Rams on Sunday, and

1620
01:20:40,560 --> 01:20:43,120
Speaker 1: the Eagles in control late, seemingly in control, but let

1621
01:20:43,120 --> 01:20:45,400
Speaker 1: the Rams get back win in it. The Rams almost

1622
01:20:45,520 --> 01:20:47,200
Speaker 1: win it. They're in the red zone with a chance

1623
01:20:47,240 --> 01:20:50,000
Speaker 1: to win the game late, and that game lands on six.

1624
01:20:50,080 --> 01:20:52,280
Speaker 1: Well that's where that game opened, so there were bets

1625
01:20:52,280 --> 01:20:54,559
Speaker 1: at six on both sides. It got to six and

1626
01:20:54,560 --> 01:20:57,360
Speaker 1: a half and seven. So because of it landing on six,

1627
01:20:57,560 --> 01:21:01,040
Speaker 1: same thing. Odds makers were rather flustered by that, because

1628
01:21:01,560 --> 01:21:05,840
Speaker 1: you've got to pay everybody who took the Rams at

1629
01:21:05,840 --> 01:21:08,160
Speaker 1: plus seven and plus six and a half and you've

1630
01:21:08,200 --> 01:21:11,799
Speaker 1: got a refund everybody who got six. It had teaser

1631
01:21:12,200 --> 01:21:15,120
Speaker 1: situations where you were paying the teasers out on both sides,

1632
01:21:15,560 --> 01:21:18,040
Speaker 1: So not an ideal number for that game to land

1633
01:21:18,080 --> 01:21:20,760
Speaker 1: on for the bookmakers, but certainly a good number for

1634
01:21:20,880 --> 01:21:23,560
Speaker 1: the for the betters who had those on you know,

1635
01:21:23,600 --> 01:21:27,320
Speaker 1: who got the right number and or had teasers on

1636
01:21:27,400 --> 01:21:30,599
Speaker 1: either side there then their teasers either lived or if

1637
01:21:30,600 --> 01:21:32,679
Speaker 1: that was the last leg, then their teasers got paid.

1638
01:21:32,760 --> 01:21:35,280
Speaker 1: So a good outcome for the public in that respect

1639
01:21:35,320 --> 01:21:37,240
Speaker 1: and for betters in general in that respect, and then

1640
01:21:37,280 --> 01:21:40,680
Speaker 1: going to the final game. Everywhere that almost everywhere that

1641
01:21:40,720 --> 01:21:42,000
Speaker 1: I talked to, there were a couple of books that

1642
01:21:42,000 --> 01:21:45,400
Speaker 1: were lopsided. Prime Sports Book, which is a fairly sharp

1643
01:21:45,600 --> 01:21:49,040
Speaker 1: shop that operates in Ohio and New Jersey, and pretty

1644
01:21:49,040 --> 01:21:52,680
Speaker 1: soon Kentucky noted that they were I believe that they

1645
01:21:52,720 --> 01:21:57,040
Speaker 1: were heavy to the Ravens, but most books were citing

1646
01:21:57,080 --> 01:21:59,519
Speaker 1: two way play on this game, and the points bread

1647
01:21:59,600 --> 01:22:01,519
Speaker 1: kind of bears out. It was basically the game hovered

1648
01:22:01,520 --> 01:22:04,040
Speaker 1: around to pick them. The Bills were an early favorite.

1649
01:22:04,040 --> 01:22:06,519
Speaker 1: The Ravens closed as a favorite, but it never got

1650
01:22:06,520 --> 01:22:09,559
Speaker 1: beyond one and a half. In either direction, and betham

1651
01:22:09,640 --> 01:22:12,280
Speaker 1: Jam even said as I spoke with them pregame that

1652
01:22:12,840 --> 01:22:15,400
Speaker 1: it really didn't matter which side won the game. However,

1653
01:22:15,479 --> 01:22:18,680
Speaker 1: they were rooting for the Bills for futures purposes, and

1654
01:22:18,800 --> 01:22:21,280
Speaker 1: Draft Kings said the same thing. They wanted the Bills

1655
01:22:21,320 --> 01:22:24,519
Speaker 1: to win when factoring in the game, how it was

1656
01:22:24,560 --> 01:22:27,559
Speaker 1: bet and where they stood with the futures market, Super Bowl,

1657
01:22:27,600 --> 01:22:29,719
Speaker 1: Futures Conference features and so forth, they wanted the Bills

1658
01:22:29,720 --> 01:22:34,960
Speaker 1: to advance, so they got that. Also that Commander's game,

1659
01:22:35,200 --> 01:22:38,920
Speaker 1: while it was generally great for the books, all that

1660
01:22:39,000 --> 01:22:41,960
Speaker 1: scoring forty five to thirty one final John Murray at

1661
01:22:41,960 --> 01:22:43,920
Speaker 1: the Super Book he told me that there was a

1662
01:22:43,920 --> 01:22:46,599
Speaker 1: at any time touchdown parlay that was just super long.

1663
01:22:47,280 --> 01:22:49,960
Speaker 1: Several players anytime touchdown, every single one of them scored.

1664
01:22:50,000 --> 01:22:51,519
Speaker 1: And he said they just got cleaned out on that

1665
01:22:51,560 --> 01:22:54,799
Speaker 1: parlay and a lot of others. And as we look ahead,

1666
01:22:55,240 --> 01:22:58,000
Speaker 1: you've got the Chiefs as a short favorite against the

1667
01:22:58,040 --> 01:23:01,280
Speaker 1: Bills lay in one at home one one and a

1668
01:23:01,320 --> 01:23:03,519
Speaker 1: half depending on where you shop. And you got the

1669
01:23:03,760 --> 01:23:06,840
Speaker 1: Eagles lay in five at home against the Commanders. These

1670
01:23:07,000 --> 01:23:09,120
Speaker 1: you know, in both matchups, these teams are familiar with

1671
01:23:09,160 --> 01:23:11,720
Speaker 1: each other, The Chiefs and Bills seem to meet every year,

1672
01:23:11,840 --> 01:23:14,000
Speaker 1: often in the playoffs. They met earlier this season two,

1673
01:23:14,080 --> 01:23:17,439
Speaker 1: and it's more than likely what they'll be what they'll

1674
01:23:17,439 --> 01:23:19,960
Speaker 1: be wanting from and again from John Murray at the

1675
01:23:19,960 --> 01:23:22,040
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. And this is in my Action report, which

1676
01:23:22,080 --> 01:23:25,320
Speaker 1: is up on Vegas Insider right now. They're gonna want

1677
01:23:26,160 --> 01:23:31,960
Speaker 1: the Commanders in all likelihood that in that NFC Championship game.

1678
01:23:32,880 --> 01:23:36,439
Speaker 1: And they're gonna want the Bills mainly because John said,

1679
01:23:36,439 --> 01:23:38,719
Speaker 1: they just really would like a change of pace. They'd

1680
01:23:38,720 --> 01:23:40,320
Speaker 1: like to like to see it switched up. The Chiefs

1681
01:23:40,360 --> 01:23:42,040
Speaker 1: are in the super Bowl almost every year. This would

1682
01:23:42,040 --> 01:23:44,200
Speaker 1: be their third straight Super Bowl, so they'd like to

1683
01:23:44,240 --> 01:23:46,400
Speaker 1: see a little changing of the guard here and see

1684
01:23:46,439 --> 01:23:48,280
Speaker 1: the Bills go into Kansas City and find a way

1685
01:23:48,320 --> 01:23:51,400
Speaker 1: to get over the hump and win that game and

1686
01:23:51,479 --> 01:23:52,519
Speaker 1: get to the super Bowl.

1687
01:23:52,800 --> 01:23:56,040
Speaker 2: Three games left in the season. We've got Best Bets episodes.

1688
01:23:56,120 --> 01:23:58,360
Speaker 2: I'll be on the Favorites, Brandon, I'll be on shows

1689
01:23:58,360 --> 01:24:01,320
Speaker 2: We've got convinced me next weekend. We've got all of

1690
01:24:01,400 --> 01:24:04,400
Speaker 2: the content up on Actionnetwork dot Com and the Action

1691
01:24:04,439 --> 01:24:06,960
Speaker 2: Network app. We're going to bring you everything we've got.

1692
01:24:06,960 --> 01:24:09,559
Speaker 2: I'll have my article coming out Tuesday or Wednesday. Brandon,

1693
01:24:09,600 --> 01:24:12,880
Speaker 2: we'll have all of his stuff as well. That is it.

1694
01:24:13,040 --> 01:24:15,800
Speaker 2: So we will see you next weekend. I am Evan Abrams,

1695
01:24:16,040 --> 01:24:19,920
Speaker 2: that is Brandon Anderson. Enjoy your week and join the

1696
01:24:20,000 --> 01:24:37,360
Speaker 2: National Title game Monday night as well. See you let everybody.

1697
01:24:38,080 --> 01:24:42,600
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1698
01:24:42,600 --> 01:24:45,400
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1699
01:24:45,439 --> 01:24:48,559
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler