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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Tuesday, the twenty fourth of October in London.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak euro podcast. I'm Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 1: Coming up today. Hamas freeze two more hostages from Gaza

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Speaker 1: as the US sends more forces to the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: Barkley's disappoints in its latest results with a poor performance

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Speaker 1: from its investment bank and signals structural cost cutting ahead.

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Speaker 1: And bond bears boo ware. Billionaire investors Bill Ackman and

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Speaker 1: Bill Gross abandon their short position on US treasuries. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with a roundup of our top stories. The latest

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Speaker 1: unemployment data from the UK, looking for that number for

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Speaker 1: the June to August unemployment rate at four point two

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Speaker 1: percent now using the new calculation for UK jobs data,

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Speaker 1: and also some breaking news on those jobs figures on

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Speaker 1: UK employment falling eighty two thousand in the three months

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Speaker 1: ending in August, the claimant count rate at four percent

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Speaker 1: and that is holding steady to the previous reading. These

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Speaker 1: are the figures for September. Let's get to more of

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Speaker 1: our top stories. This morning. Hamas has freed two more

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Speaker 1: hostages from the Gaza strip. The two elderly women were

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Speaker 1: released to the International Committee of the Red Cross, while

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Speaker 1: more than two hundred dollars are still being held by militants.

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Speaker 1: The move is giving some Israeli officials cause to rethink

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Speaker 1: the scope of a planned ground invasion of Gaza. Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Michael Heath says the releases are helping diplomatic calls for restraint.

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Speaker 2: This movement of people coming out encourages leaders to encourages

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Speaker 2: Rail to engage and to hold off in terms of

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Speaker 2: the ground invasion until they can get more people out.

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Speaker 2: Katar and Egypt negotiated this this release, so at this

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Speaker 2: stage we're still waiting on the ground operation, and obviously

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Speaker 2: there's still talks going on with the hostages. President Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden has said once the hostage is are released, we

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Speaker 2: can start talking about a ceasefi.

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Speaker 1: Our reporter Michael Heath pointing out that US President Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden appeared to suggest a ceasefire could be discussed if

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Speaker 1: all hostages were released.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 1: One of the two women freedom Gaza was a British citizen.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told MPs Hamas must be held accountable.

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Speaker 4: Hamas is not only a threat to Israel, but to

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Speaker 4: many others across the region. All the leaders I met

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Speaker 4: agree that this is a watershed moment. It's time to

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Speaker 4: set the region on a better path.

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Speaker 1: The Prime Minister also announced more money for aid for Gaza.

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Speaker 1: Only a fraction of normal supplies are currently being allowed

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Speaker 1: into the territory. The EU's Chief Diplomat, Joseph Burrell says

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Speaker 1: aid is his top priority. We have thus start thinking

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Speaker 1: of how to revive a bullet goo Russias. But the

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Speaker 1: moment which will make you many Nians supporting.

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Speaker 5: The teams to get.

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Speaker 1: Josepparel, THEU High Representative on Foreign Affairs, calling adjoining the

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Speaker 1: international calls for restraint. China's Foreign Minister Wange reiterating that

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Speaker 1: Israel must protect civilians and abide by humanitarian law, even

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Speaker 1: as it has the right to defend itself. Some of

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Speaker 1: the bond market's most prominent bears are saying the route

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Speaker 1: in US treasuries has gone too far. Perting Square founder

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Speaker 1: Bill Ackman says he's unwinding his bets against US government bonds.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sternale Bask explains why.

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Speaker 5: The reason he is taking off this short position now

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Speaker 5: is He says there's too much risk in the world

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Speaker 5: to remain short bonds at current long term rates. The

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Speaker 5: economy is flowing faster than recent data suggests, so that

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Speaker 5: implies worries about a further bid in the bond market,

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Speaker 5: perhaps a haven bid as the economy starts to slow down.

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Speaker 1: Asternale Basic notes. Akman's skepticism on the health of the

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Speaker 1: US economy stands in contrast to surprisingly strong recent economic data.

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Speaker 1: Pinco co founder Bill Gross agrees with Ackman, he's predicting

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Speaker 1: a recession by the end of the year and says

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Speaker 1: he's buying short dated interest rate futures. The Bank of

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Speaker 1: Japan has announced an unscheduled bond buying operation, the fifth

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Speaker 1: since tweaking yield curve control in July. Traders are testing

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Speaker 1: the central banks resolve ahead of next week's policy meeting.

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Speaker 1: The boj's loose policy is also contributing to the depreciation

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Speaker 1: of the yen, which is the worst performing group of

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Speaker 1: ten currency this year. And those are your top stories

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Speaker 1: on the program this morning. On the markets, eurostocks fifty

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Speaker 1: futures are flat to the upside of the moment. The

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Speaker 1: MSCIS specific index is three tenths of one percent higher,

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Speaker 1: and the ten year treasury yield is a basis point

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Speaker 1: lower at four point eight four percent. Well, let's turn

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Speaker 1: to the latest from the Middle East. Those release of

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Speaker 1: two more hostages. A lot more still being held by Hamas,

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Speaker 1: though another call too between the US President Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: Israeli Prime Minister Benda Manetti Naho discussing US deployments to

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Speaker 1: the region, among other issues. Bloomberg's Menis director Ros Matheson

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Speaker 1: joins us now for more. Good morning to you Raz.

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Speaker 1: The release of two more hostages from Gaza. How significant

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Speaker 1: is that and what is tell us about the effectiveness

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Speaker 1: of diplomatic efforts being made to release them.

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Speaker 3: Well, certainly it's terrific news for those women and their families, mediated,

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Speaker 3: as you were saying earlier, by Katar and Egypt to

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Speaker 3: get them released, But of course it leaves more than

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Speaker 3: two hundred still there, and it's moving very slowly. If

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Speaker 3: we're getting a couple of hostages released at a time,

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Speaker 3: it's hard to see how longs is going to take

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Speaker 3: to get them more released. And of course the thorny

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Speaker 3: question for Israel is that her mask doesn't show where

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Speaker 3: any inclination to negotiate the release of Israeli citizens, the

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Speaker 3: ones who can be released potentially are those who might

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Speaker 3: hold US citizenship or a British citizenship or dual citizenship.

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Speaker 3: But if you're an Israeli national, it becomes far more complex.

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Speaker 3: The mask doesn't seem to be interested, and of course

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Speaker 3: Israel's own policy of negotiation there might come in. And

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Speaker 3: so this is very slow going, very good news obviously

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Speaker 3: overnight for those two women. But the broader sort of

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Speaker 3: frame of this does seem to be the perception that

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Speaker 3: until there's greater progress from the hostage front, that it's

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Speaker 3: not the best thing for Israel to be considering a

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Speaker 3: full ground war.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and we've been reporting in fact about the pressure

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Speaker 1: on the government in Israel to rethink the scope of

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Speaker 1: a ground invasion of Gaza. What more can you tell

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Speaker 1: us about that?

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Speaker 3: Well, that does seem to be the way things are going,

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Speaker 3: and not just because of the discussions Israel might be

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Speaker 3: having with the US and other allies, but also the

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Speaker 3: conversations within Israel. There's a sense that the Israeli military

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Speaker 3: feels they're ready to go. They've been mobilizing troops for

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Speaker 3: weeks three hundred thousand or so in the area. They've

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Speaker 3: been bringing a lot of equipment to the area. They've

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Speaker 3: been stepping up the aerial bombardment of Gaza that's been

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Speaker 3: intensifying day by day, and they're very much ready to go.

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Speaker 3: So it's a political decision at this point when or

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Speaker 3: how to go in, And there seems to be a

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Speaker 3: sort of at least a forceful conversation going on within

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Speaker 3: the establishment of Israel, like whether to go in, how

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Speaker 3: to go in, whether to have a more targeted invasion

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Speaker 3: after time, whether the aerial bombardment can do some of

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Speaker 3: the work that they seek in terms of their efforts

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Speaker 3: to wipe out Hamas, which was responsible for the October

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Speaker 3: seven attack on Israel. So there's a lot of conversation

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Speaker 3: going on, not just externally but also within Israel. It's olf.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, we've had the first comments from China's Fire Minister

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Speaker 1: Wang Yi. What should we be reading into what we

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Speaker 1: heard from him?

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Speaker 3: It will seems to be echoing what's been said by

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Speaker 3: other Chinese officials in recent days, including a president in

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Speaker 3: cjmping last week, and that he's saying, yes, they understand

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Speaker 3: the need of every country to defend itself, and they

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Speaker 3: appreciate that Israel needs to protect it's civilians, but also

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Speaker 3: saying that civilians must be protected in all of this,

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Speaker 3: and China's stated position, of course, is a two date position.

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Speaker 3: They support the establishment of a Palestinian state. They've expressed

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Speaker 3: concern about the humanitarian situation in sade Gaza. They've been

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Speaker 3: a bit careful about criticizing Hamas directly and condemning them

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Speaker 3: for their attack on Israel. So they're walking very much

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Speaker 3: your traditional China foreign policy line, I just say on

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Speaker 3: this issue. So the comments from the Foreign Minister Jang ye,

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Speaker 3: who of course is going to be meeting with US

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Speaker 3: officials later this week ahead of a possible meeting between

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Speaker 3: President Spiden and Sieging Ping, he's very much walking the

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Speaker 3: line there, which is China wants to support Israel in

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Speaker 3: this moment, but is also sort of stopping short a

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Speaker 3: very strong condemnation of Hamas.

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Speaker 1: At the same time. Ras We've had Emmanuel Macron arriving

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Speaker 1: in Israel this morning. There was a meeting of EU

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Speaker 1: foreign ministers yesterday which they didn't come to an agreement

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Speaker 1: about calling for this humanitarian pause. This is something that's

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Speaker 1: now going down the line to a a U leaders

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Speaker 1: meeting later this week.

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Speaker 3: That's right, It's interesting they call it a pause. I mean, really,

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Speaker 3: what they're saying is that whether they should call for

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Speaker 3: a cease fire, which means Israel stopping it's an aerial

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Speaker 3: attack on Gaza, but also Hamas stopping its continued attacks

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Speaker 3: into Israel. But mccron is particularly interesting in this, and

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Speaker 3: he is there in Israel today, as you say, because

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Speaker 3: he's been quite strong in the past, just sort of

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Speaker 3: calling also for the creation of a Palestinian state and

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Speaker 3: expressing concerns about encroachments as he sees it into the

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Speaker 3: West Bank. So whether if he sort of makes those

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Speaker 3: comments again on Israeli soil, it'll be interesting to see

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Speaker 3: how warmly welcomed he truly is. He's possibly the least

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Speaker 3: close leader of Europe to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

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Speaker 3: He's always, as I said, been quite forceful in his

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Speaker 3: comments about supporting a Palestinian state. Of course he will

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Speaker 3: express as other leaders have, their horror what happened to Israel,

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Speaker 3: but he may also make those comments about Palestine to

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Speaker 3: the Israeli leader. So it'll be interesting to see whether

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Speaker 3: he gets quite the effusive welcome that other leaders have.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Roslyn Mathson Oura News director. Thank you very much

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Speaker 1: for joining us with the latest developments from the Middle

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Speaker 1: East this morning, and we'll continue to follow that of

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Speaker 1: course throughout the program here as well. We're looking at

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Speaker 1: we've seen live pictures of Emmanuel Macron stepping off the

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Speaker 1: plane there in Tel Aviv this morning. Well, let's turn

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Speaker 1: to financial matters next and the latest results from Barkley's

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Speaker 1: this morning, their cib revenue for the third quarter missing

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Speaker 1: the average analyst estimates. Let's get the details now from

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Speaker 1: Jenny Seraine, who's our UK and EMEA finance team leader. Jenny,

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Speaker 1: great to have you with us this morning. Can you

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Speaker 1: walk us through first of all the headlines from Barkley's numbers.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I think so far what we're seeing

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Speaker 6: is a lot of missus and you know, both the

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Speaker 6: trading revenue is quite short of what analysts were expecting.

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Speaker 6: I think the outlook is also not quite what folks

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Speaker 6: were expecting. So it seems like we are really experiencing

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Speaker 6: a lot of down arrows here and just a lighter

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Speaker 6: quarter than what folks really predicted.

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Speaker 1: What about the outlook that we heard about that we're

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Speaker 1: seeing kind of commentary around in the statement from the

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Speaker 1: CEO as well. Are things looking brighter or are it's

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Speaker 1: still more trouble ahead.

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Speaker 6: No, I think it's definitely still a more trouble ahead.

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Speaker 6: So they had a pretty clear warning for folks. They

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Speaker 6: said that they are actually evaluating actions to further take

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Speaker 6: down their structural cost base. And so I think, you know,

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Speaker 6: we've already reported on a lot of layoffs at this company.

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Speaker 6: I think we're going to be seeing a lot more

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Speaker 6: of that.

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Speaker 1: This is interesting because it's on a day when we're

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Speaker 1: looking at results, of course from some of the big

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Speaker 1: European banking names, after we've had the reporting season already

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Speaker 1: in the United States as well. I mean, how how

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Speaker 1: does the picture compare when you think about the challenges

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Speaker 1: facing the big Wall Street names and a player like Barkleys,

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Speaker 1: which at one stage, of course was considered a serious rival,

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Speaker 1: but very different position it's in today.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's interesting because I do think we across Wall

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Speaker 6: Street we're seeing banks like really try to take a

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Speaker 6: you know, rain and costs and really take stronger, firmer

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Speaker 6: actions on expenses. And so you see more of that

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Speaker 6: from Barkley's today. They're warning that, you know, we are

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Speaker 6: taking cost actions and that that could actually result in

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Speaker 6: material charges. And so in one sense they're on the

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Speaker 6: same plage. In another sense, you know, trading is such

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Speaker 6: a feasture gamen business. And so while we've had a

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Speaker 6: lot of companies come out and be on trading, You've

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Speaker 6: had City Group, You've had Bank of America bet on trading.

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Speaker 6: You see Barkley's You're missing. And so I think this

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Speaker 6: is just an example of, you know, why investors sometimes

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Speaker 6: are hesitant to believe in training businesses because it can

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Speaker 6: just be something that you know, either really beats and

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Speaker 6: carries the bank, or it can be something that you know,

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Speaker 6: missus and causes a greater worry.

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Speaker 1: When we think about where I suppose the situation is

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Speaker 1: going to improve. I'm mindful that CSFN Coultercations spoke the

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Speaker 1: CEO of Barkley spoke to our colleague Francin LaQuan the

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Speaker 1: in the City podcast recently on Bloomberg, saying that a

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Speaker 1: deal making revival still looks a little further away. These

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Speaker 1: figures would seem to present a fairly pessimistic picture, perhaps

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Speaker 1: making CSFN Coulter Christians comments look a little understated when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the outlook.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, no, I think that's absolutely right. And I think

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Speaker 6: you know a lot of we started out this year

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Speaker 6: and a lot of bank CEOs were willing to say

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Speaker 6: that the third quarter was when that rebound would happen,

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Speaker 6: and they thought the second half was going to be

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Speaker 6: their moment for investment banking. And I mean these results

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Speaker 6: and what we've seen across the banking industry so far

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Speaker 6: this year, that hasn't come to fruition. And so I

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Speaker 6: think you've seen a lot of big bank CEOs really

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Speaker 6: walking back those comments and saying, we can't we can't

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Speaker 6: call a moment. We can't say when this rebound is

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Speaker 6: going to happen, and you just these results obviously show that,

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Speaker 6: I mean, it's it hasn't happened yet, and it's hard

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Speaker 6: to know when that could come back, especially you know,

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Speaker 6: when you've got central banks around the world still hiking

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Speaker 6: interest rates. I think a lot of corporate CEOs are

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Speaker 6: still on the sidelines, and you just see more of

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Speaker 6: that today.

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