1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,520 Speaker 1: This is Football four oh one K broadcasting on Dallas 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 1: Cowboys dot Com and the official Dallas Cowboys Happen Now 3 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: your host, R J. Choppy, Welcome in the Football four 4 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: oh one K. I M R J. Choppy. This is 5 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 1: a wild card weekend edition of the Football four oh 6 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: one K. Absolutely love what we have coming up here 7 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on the show today. We've got our best bets. We're 8 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: gonna look at the other NFL playoff games that are 9 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: happening this weekend, and of course we are going to 10 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 1: dive right into the Dallas Cowboys and a couple of things. 11 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: One has the rumors of their struggle has been a 12 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: tad overstated. But also do the Cowboys really have a 13 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: problem here when it comes to playing the San Francisco 14 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: forty nine ers? Do they? I think not? Everyone, and 15 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: I do mean every one of their sister is picking 16 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: San Francisco to win this game. All the pundits, all 17 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: the analysts, all the football guys, all those football guys 18 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,960 Speaker 1: out there, Oh, the running game, the running game, they're 19 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:16,279 Speaker 1: all picking San France. So on TV, Bart Scott, San France, 20 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: Damien Woody, San Franci. We got all these football guys 21 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: out there taking San France, San France, San France, And 22 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: look San France. Fine, they're a good team, all right, 23 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,039 Speaker 1: They're in the playoffs. Every playoff teams a good team. 24 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,479 Speaker 1: They've probably got about a thirty five to forty two 25 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: percent chance of winning this football game. And that means 26 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: that the team that wins is probably never winning more 27 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 1: than two straight games in the series. In fact, I 28 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: think that's what the math would say. So if you're 29 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 1: never winning more than two in a row, if you 30 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: were to play a hundred times on average, well that 31 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: means that these teams are not that far off. But 32 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: there's there's a couple of major differences in one of 33 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: them is the quarterback two. I'm gonna read you a 34 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: list of the margins of victory that the Cowboys have 35 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: against the top fifth team run block win rate teams 36 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: in the NFL. Run block win rate is a statistic 37 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: that ESPN came up with. Basically, they look at every 38 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 1: play of every player of every game and they determine 39 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: whether you won or lost your blocking assignment. So if 40 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: DeMarcus Lawrence is out there and he beats the individual 41 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: pass block or the offensive lineman in front of him, 42 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: he gets credited with a pass rush win. It doesn't 43 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: matter after whether or not he got to the quarterback 44 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: or not. It matters as to whether or not he 45 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: beat the guy in front of him. That's the most 46 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: of you can't You can't sack the quarterback if you 47 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: don't beat your man, right, if you can, I mean 48 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: kind of alert me on how to do that one. 49 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 1: It's gonna be very very difficult. So here we go. 50 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 1: These are the margins of victory in the games against 51 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: top fifteen run block win rate teams that the Cowboys 52 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 1: play seven forty two, twenty twenty five, twenty four, fifteen 53 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: four and they lost a game by ten. They were 54 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: seven and one against teams and the top fifteen of 55 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: run block win rate. The one loss was nineteen to 56 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 1: nine to Kansas City. In fact, in these seven games, 57 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: they allowed more than twenty one points one time. One time, 58 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: and that was the Philadelphia when they allowed twenty six. 59 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: The Cowboys this year did a really nice job against 60 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: teams like this, Against teams like San Francisco. The Cowboys 61 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: did a really nice job this year. And that should 62 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: tell you all you need to know that, yes, you 63 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: do need to worry about San Francisco. They're not Philadelphia, 64 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,279 Speaker 1: they're not washing Did they're not the Giant, they're not Minnesota, 65 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: they're not Kansas City, they're not who else who's the 66 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: other one team in there. That's about it. They're not 67 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: those teams. They're not Arizona, they're not the Rams. Flush 68 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 1: all that. The Niners run the ball differently than a 69 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: lot of teams. They don't run the ball the same 70 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: as than not as the Ravens. They don't run the 71 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: ball the same way as as Kansas City. They don't 72 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: run the ball the same way as Buffalo. All Right, 73 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: those three teams use their quarterback to run a lot. 74 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: You know who doesn't use their quarterback to run a lot? 75 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: San Francisco. San Francisco runs shocker with a running back, 76 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: a lot of them, and a wide receiver and a 77 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: tight end. Okay, they get their yards the old fashioned 78 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: way by handing the ball off, all right. That is 79 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: that is not lost on me. Okay, they definitely do 80 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: it the old school way. The Cowboys, their run defense 81 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 1: may not be great, but they do play great against 82 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 1: teams like the of this ilk that run the ball 83 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: a lot. Again, margins the victory seven forty two, twenty 84 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: twenty five, they lost by ten, they won by four, 85 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: twenty four and fifteen. That's a point differential of one 86 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty three. One hundred and twenty three. That's 87 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: a lot of points. They've won those seven and one 88 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: of games against teams in the top fifteen in run 89 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 1: block win right, seven and one. That one lost to 90 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: Kansas City Patrick Mahomes, you might have heard of him. 91 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 1: Another thing that I wanted to touch on here is, 92 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: you know the Cowboys end this notion that they just 93 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 1: beat bad teams. All right, Let's look, they're in the 94 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 1: NFC East. I buy it, but think of it this way. 95 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: Humor me. The Cowboys are six and oh against the 96 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: end East, or six and five against every other team 97 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 1: in the NFL. All right, that's not a great It's 98 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: not a ringing endorsement for the point about to make. 99 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: If you take out Atlanta, they're five and five against 100 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: the rest of the NFL, and they've scored exactly the 101 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: same amount of points they've allowed, so they have a 102 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: zero point differential. Again, not a ringing endorsement for what 103 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: I'm about to say. However, if you take out the 104 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: division winners, so you take out the Cowboys for the 105 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: NFC East, Green Bay from the north, Tampa from the south, 106 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: take Tennessee away from the AFC South. The NFC East 107 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 1: is no worse than the other divisions. It's worse than 108 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 1: the NFC West, it's worse than the AFC West, and 109 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: it's worse than the AFC North, and it's probably worse 110 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: than the AFC East. But the Cowboys other teams, the 111 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: other teams, the other the non division winners in those 112 00:06:56,520 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: four divisions, including US NFC East records of twenty and 113 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: thirty one, twenty and thirty one, it's a thirty nine 114 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: percent twenty percentage, NFC North seventeen thirty three and one 115 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: that's thirty three percent, so we're better than the NFC North, 116 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: NFC South twenty one and thirty one game difference it's 117 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: a forty one percent twenty percentage, so they're slightly better. 118 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: And then the AFC South sixteen and thirty five, thirty 119 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: one percent worse than the league. Why are the Cowboys 120 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: the only team that catch heat for not playing for 121 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: playing in a bad division. Why don't you give heat 122 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: to Green Bay? Why don't you give heat to Tampa? Oh? 123 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 1: Because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are there. I forgot 124 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: you know, Brady caught a pass. We're playing in the 125 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: AFC East for years. Manning caught a pass playing the 126 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: AFC South for years. Dak Prescott doesn't get a pass. 127 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: Cowboys don't get a pass. Oh, they get criticized. Oh, 128 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: their wins aren't good enough. Can't trust this team. I 129 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: can't trust Green Bay either, green Bay. Green Bay has 130 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: got one of the five best quarterbacks I've ever seen 131 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: in my lifetime. Can't get to a freaking Super Bowl. Man, 132 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: I haven't been there in a decade, and he's amazing. 133 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: And it has nothing to do with him. It's just 134 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: the way the league is. Drew Brees, one of the 135 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: best quarterbacks I've ever seen, didn't make a Super Bowl 136 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: for the final decade plus of his career. Wasn't necessarily 137 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: because of him. He was a great player. He's a 138 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: Hall of Famer. He's going to Canon. The kids would say, 139 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: he's goaded. He's goaded, Dad, He's goaded. That's why kids 140 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: would say. But like, you know, they all get passes 141 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,679 Speaker 1: except back of the Cowboys. You know, I'm gonna die 142 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 1: on this Dak Hill. I'm gonna die on it. I 143 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:40,719 Speaker 1: really really am. I do think that the rumors of 144 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 1: their demise have been a tad overstated. The Cowboys are 145 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: first in the NFL in DBOA that is a Football 146 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:54,199 Speaker 1: Outsiders efficiency metric. They're thirty one percent better than league average, 147 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: and that adjust for defense. So the Cowboys, yes, have 148 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: played the sixth easiest schedule in the league. It adjust 149 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 1: for that, it takes all that out, you know, that 150 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: makes it basically a league average defense. You're going against 151 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: Cows of the top ranked defense, the ninth ranked offense inefficiency. Like, 152 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 1: what am I really worried about here? I'm not really 153 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,319 Speaker 1: worried about anything. You know. The Cowboys should do well 154 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: in the postseason. They should do well in this game 155 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 1: against San Francisco. All right, that's the first secument here 156 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: on the Football four oh one K. I'm r J. Chobby. 157 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 1: We'll tell about the other NFL playoff games, how Vegas 158 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: is seeing these lines, and then maybe little college football 159 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 1: plus our best bets of the week coming up next 160 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: The Football four oh one K, at AT and T Everyone, 161 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: new and existing customers get our best deals on every smartphone. 162 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,719 Speaker 1: Why because you deserve it for turning your living room 163 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: into your office and your gym. We're teaching Grandma had 164 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: a video call and teaching her again. It's the button 165 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: on your left Nanna, Okay, your other laughs. It's not complicated. 166 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: Everyone deserves something new, so ATNC is given everyone new 167 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: and existing customers are best deals with every unlimited plan 168 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 1: on every smartphone, even the latest ones. A ten team 169 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:58,839 Speaker 1: may temporaries dated space at the network is basically strictens 170 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: and exceptions may apply. Hi, I'm Clint Tillison with man. 171 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: I'm Jay Nobuschek, and we're both with Unturf, the official 172 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: tractor provider of the Dallas Cowboys. So if you need 173 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: a tractor to bail some hay a'm more to cut 174 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: some grass, or a gator to get some chores done, 175 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 1: get a John Deer at unantagin Turf and then let's 176 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 1: get to work. Hey Jay, that's my line, well not today. 177 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: Get to work with a John Deere tractor package that's 178 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: just right for you in your budget. Visit unantaginturf dot com. 179 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 1: Before there was a draft, you could size up a 180 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 1: cowboy by three simple factors. The crease in his hat, 181 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 1: the bend of his brim, and his unbending attitude. A man, 182 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: Stetson didn't just protect him from what life throw at him. 183 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: It projected a rugged, unstoppable spirit. Stetson hats are still American, 184 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 1: made with pride. Right here in Texas. There's still the 185 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: unofficial crowd of all self respecting Cowboys, and Stetson is 186 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: proud to be on the field with America's team. Find 187 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: a retailer nearest you at Stetson dot com, slash Cowboys 188 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: New Doctor Pepper zero sugar. You deserve it. I do 189 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: deserve that. You deserve decadent flavor without sugar, and a 190 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: day at the beach without Sam getting everywhere, and a 191 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: relaxing bath that your children don't get rupt. I deserve 192 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 1: all that. It's least a visual metaphor for doctor Pepper 193 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 1: zero sugar. Everything you want, nothing you don't a visual 194 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,319 Speaker 1: metaphor on the radio. I do deserve that. Doctor Pepper 195 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: zero sugar, the zero you deserve is finally here to 196 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: football four oh one K. Welcome back to the football 197 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: four oh one K. I M R. J. Choppy, thanks 198 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: for joining us here. Are going to get into some 199 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:41,559 Speaker 1: NFL playoff games that are gonna be going on this 200 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: weekend in the Nashville Football League. We'll also talked about 201 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 1: that collegeball playoff game, how that happened on the weekend. 202 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: But real quick, let's get right into it. The NFL 203 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: postseason wild card weekend. It's finally here, boys a girl. 204 00:11:55,800 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 1: That's awesome. The extra week pushed it back a little bit. 205 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 1: But here we go January fifteen, throughout two thirty in 206 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 1: the afternoon, it'll be Raiders Bengals from the place firmally 207 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 1: known as what was it Riverfront Stadium? That's what they 208 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: used to call it. Now it's just you know, in Cincinnati. 209 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: So here we go. Five and a half point spread. 210 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: Raiders are the dog. Fifty eight percent of the money 211 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: is on Cincinnati, one percent pro advantage is in favor 212 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 1: of Cincinnati. But interesting little stat here. Derek Carr. All right, 213 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: Derek Carr in his career is owen five. In games 214 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 1: where the temperature is below thirty seven degrees Owen five, 215 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: his teams have never scored more than seventeen points. He 216 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: also averages he's never thrown more in about two hundred 217 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 1: and forty yards in those games. Breaking news, the projected 218 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: temperature at kickoff is thirty and the last time I checked, 219 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: and I haven't chatted, but I'm just guessing thirty is 220 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: lower than thirty seven. Makes sense. This would be a 221 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 1: tough game. It's a tough game for me to predict. 222 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: It's tough game for me to pick because I do 223 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: love Derek Carr and I do love Joe Burrow. I 224 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: love both these quarterbacks. I think both these quarterbacks. I 225 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: think cars tremendously underrated. He has shown this year to 226 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: be a really good leader. This has been a tumultuous 227 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: season for the Raiders, and Joe Burrow has got himself 228 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: a team man, He's got a squad. I think nobody 229 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:45,559 Speaker 1: in the NFL wants to play the Bengals right now. 230 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 1: They're still the Bengals. That's a problem, Like they just 231 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 1: don't have a history of winning, you know, their fan base. 232 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 1: I mean, are they even gonna sell this game out. 233 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: I'd be really surprised. I have no idea if they're 234 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: even gonna sell this game out. But truth be told, 235 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 1: Derek Carr struggles in the cold weather. The Bengals and 236 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow They've obviously played there all year long. I 237 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: do have such respect for what Cincinnati has been able 238 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: to do this year. Though I'm sorry with both teams. Really, 239 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: I'm at the Raiders though, in the wake of John 240 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: Gruden and his firing in the middle of the season. 241 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: The other game on Saturday, Bill's Patriots. This is another 242 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: weather game. The coldest game in NFL history from the 243 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: actual temperature standpoint was the Ice Bowl minus thirteen, but 244 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: if you factor in the wind chill, which I don't 245 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: know even know if they had windchill factor back in 246 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: the sixties when the Cowboys and the Packers played the 247 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: Ice Bawl, but you would have to go to the 248 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: Freezer Bowl of nineteen eighty one San Diego and Cincinnati. 249 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: It was minus eleven on the field, but with the 250 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: wind chill it was minus fifty nine degrees. What in 251 00:14:55,760 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 1: the hell kind of Edmonton, Alberta world we live it 252 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: in where it's minus fifty nine degrees in the lower 253 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: forty eight He know that that doesn't have I don't 254 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: get it at all. Anyway, the Bills got sixty percent 255 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: of the public money on them at minus four seven 256 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: percent pro advantage. It's the biggest of the weekend. I 257 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: don't think we're gonna see a team do what New 258 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: England did in the first game. These two teams matched 259 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 1: up in Buffalo. I don't think we're gonna see mac 260 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: Jones out there throwing it just three times now. I 261 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna throw it thirty. But I think 262 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: eighteen to twenty four attempts is kind of that meaty 263 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 1: part of the curve where he's gonna land and Mac 264 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: Jones and company are gonna have to, you know, throw 265 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: the ball if they want to win this game. When 266 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: the weather goes below thirty seven degrees thirty five degrees, 267 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: Josh Allen's numbers dip, you know, tremendously. He He throws 268 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: about three hundred forty yards a game when it's over 269 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: seventy five, and when it's below thirty five, he's in 270 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 1: the low one hundreds. That's a big drop. That's a 271 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: big drop. So keep an eye on that. Keep an 272 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: eye on the weather. In this game it's bills minus four. 273 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: Keep an eye on the weather. But I do not 274 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 1: expect this to be a rushing only game. Sunday was 275 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 1: at noon or eleven am. I should say Tampa and Philly. 276 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: I'm just bored with this one. I'm gonna come out 277 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 1: and say it bored out of my mind. I know, 278 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: I shouldn't be saying I'm bored with Tommy choamby boy 279 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 1: Choabby Brady. I'm not bored with Tom Brady. I'm bored 280 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: with Philadelphia, and I know the Bucks are gonna win 281 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: this game, even though Philadelphia has got a five percent 282 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: pro advantage. Sixty three percent of the tickets in this 283 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 1: game are on Tampa. That is the biggest amount, the 284 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 1: biggest advantage of either one public betting in wild Card weekend. 285 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: But Tampa is an eight and a half point favorite. 286 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 1: They are missing Antonio Brown who has been cut. They 287 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: are missing Chris Godwin who has been banged up. They 288 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: do have a lot of injuries. They got some guys back, though, 289 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 1: and I think Tampa, this is, this is gonna be 290 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: has the potential to be kind of a snoozer, if 291 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,360 Speaker 1: you know what I mean. All right, let's go. That's 292 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: the noon game. We already know the Cowboy game. Cowboys 293 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 1: favored by three fifty eight percent of the public money 294 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: is on San Francisco Cowboys every one percent pro advantage. 295 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: Sunday Night Pittsburgh, Kansas City. How in the hell did 296 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 1: this game get the Sunday night game. I thought for 297 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: sure Cowboys are gonna be on Monday Night football. Okay, 298 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: I thought they were gonna throw ESPN a bone by 299 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: giving them the Cowboys game. It didn't work out that way. 300 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: If they weren't gonna be on Monday night, I thought 301 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: for sure they'd be on Sunday night. Dude. The NBA 302 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 1: put the Lakers on the primetime window every time major 303 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: League Baseball. If the Yankees are in the playoffs, they 304 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: are getting the evening window. It's just the way it is. 305 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: It's just the way it is. Why are the Cowboys 306 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: playing a day game? Could you imagine how much loud 307 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 1: of that stadium would be at night, all looped up, 308 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 1: ready to go, juiced up? Now said three o'clock, and 309 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: they afternoon, And yeah, it'll be They'll be guys, they'll 310 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 1: be loud, they'll be rowdy, not like a night game. 311 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: Night games are different. Chiefs have just you know, they've 312 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 1: kind of come together. Or a two seed against Pittsburgh, 313 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 1: twelve and a half point favorite, and let's be fair, 314 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: it's kind of stinks. Yeah, they kind of stinks. So 315 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 1: I'm avoiding them. And then finally this the Monday night game, 316 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:27,959 Speaker 1: first year Monday night football in the postseason, Rams Cardinals 317 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: Rams a four point favorite. The public money favors Arizona, 318 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: the pro money favors the Rams. And this is a 319 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: Matt Stafford games. This a legacy game for him. I 320 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: shouldn't say it's not. He's not a legacy guy. But 321 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 1: he is an overall number one pick who doesn't have 322 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,200 Speaker 1: a playoff win. Kyler Murray's an overall number one pick 323 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 1: another playoff win. They've stumbled on the stretch. It's a 324 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: big game for both players. But the Rams made the 325 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 1: golf trade for for Matt Stafford for the postseason, and 326 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: Matt staff Jared Goff got the Rams the playoff offs. 327 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: What every year he was there, He averaged over ten 328 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 1: wins a game every year he was there, and he 329 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: went to a super Bowl. Matt stat it's pretty clear 330 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: what Matt Stafford's bar is to at the very least 331 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: meet for this to be considered a successful trade and 332 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 1: a good trade. There's a bar, and he's got to 333 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 1: meet it real quick. On the college well a playoff. 334 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: We told you last week why Georgia was favored in 335 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: this one, because Vegas doesn't look at just the most 336 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: recent game. If there's ten games to look at all 337 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: ten of them, and they weigh them pretty equally. They 338 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: weigh may weigh the more recent games a little bit more, 339 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 1: but it's not eighty twenty, right, It's it's just a 340 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 1: data point or a data point ever you want to say. 341 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,880 Speaker 1: I did not have the guts to bet out Georgia, 342 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 1: even though as a numbers guy, I knew the smart 343 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 1: play was George. I even said on the radio, George 344 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 1: is the smart play. But I just don't have the 345 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 1: guts to bet them. I just know the guts to 346 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: bet them. I saw that game. I allowed my memory, 347 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 1: my recency bias, to creep in. And that's one of 348 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,159 Speaker 1: the things that you should never do when your gambling. 349 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: Never let your eyes talk you out of what your 350 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 1: mind is telling you to do. Never let that happen. 351 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 1: And I did, and I'm made a mistake and I 352 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 1: paid for it. Literally I'm still paying for it. So 353 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 1: that's that's a look at the NFL playoffs this week 354 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: and what happened this past week in college football. Best 355 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: Beats coming up next, oar picks on the football four 356 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 1: oh one K. I want to use what the pros use. 357 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: How about the official men's skincare brand of the Dallas 358 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: Cowboys Jack Black. Right now you can get the Jack 359 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: Black Starter, a curated collection of Cowboys locker room favorites, 360 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 1: for just ten bucks with free shipping. The Starter includes 361 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 1: four Jack Clack skincare favorites plus a full size intense 362 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 1: therapy lip bomb. 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Choppy. 395 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: Time Now for our best bets this week in the 396 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 1: NFL playoffs in the wildcard round. I love the playoff betting. 397 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: I think it's a great way to make some money. 398 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 1: You know, you're getting the best of the best team. 399 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 1: Variant does come into play a little bit, but you know, 400 00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: I think especially the division round, I think it's the 401 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:04,639 Speaker 1: spot I generally nail. Playoffs. College basketball, the sweet sixteens 402 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 1: might make all the money for the year. NFL, this 403 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,360 Speaker 1: is where you gotta do it. Okay, this is where 404 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,719 Speaker 1: you've got to make your money. Let's see, I got 405 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:19,640 Speaker 1: four selections for you. First one is Vegas and Cincinnati. 406 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: I'm taking the under forty nine. This's got a thirty 407 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: six percent pro betting advantage. That's right, thirty six percent 408 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: advantage the pros on the under. The public is laying 409 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 1: ninety three percent on the over. The public is morons. 410 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 1: That's right. Take the under in this one under forty one. 411 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 1: It's gonna be cold. That's a five star bet QL bet. 412 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 1: Another one Patriots Bills under forty four, under forty four, 413 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: another five star bet. Here, this is the weather. It's 414 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,399 Speaker 1: gonna be zero degrees at kickoff. Take the under. I 415 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: see this is like a seventeen fourteen kind of game. 416 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: Take the under in that one. Kansas City Kansas City 417 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,479 Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half against Pittsburgh. They've already destroyed 418 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,120 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh once this year. I know it's a big number. 419 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,360 Speaker 1: I know it's a really big number. I just don't 420 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 1: see how Pittsburgh keeps up with them. I maybe disrespected 421 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,360 Speaker 1: Big Ben in Pittsburgh a little bit too much. Don't care. 422 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 1: And then finally Rams and Arizona. I was surprised. This 423 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 1: is an over under forty nine and a half game. 424 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: I see this as like thirty four thirty one. I 425 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: see this as a high scoring game. I will say, 426 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: I will say seventy five percent of the public is 427 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 1: on the over. Thirteen percent of the pros are on 428 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 1: the under, though, so do keep that in mind. But 429 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 1: that's what I've got. Since Vegas under forty nine, KSE 430 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half, Buffalo, New England mine is 431 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 1: under forty four, and then Rams Arizona over forty nine 432 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 1: and a half. That'll do for us year on the 433 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 1: football For four oh one k M R J. Choppy, 434 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 1: It's went some money this week. Boys and girls go Cowboys,