Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays
Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player or Android Auto
Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: It's always important to have a worse weather in Milwaukee.
Speaker 3: We do that now. They have Maleetti of Allspring Global Investments,
Speaker 3: head of Equity where winter is really winter, and I
Speaker 3: really want to talk about the future of value investing.
Speaker 3: I know Allspring is a venerable I think of John
Speaker 3: Carriet pioneer, or I mentioned John Templeton earlier with this
Speaker 3: measurement of the Templeton Global Growth Fund years ago. What's
Speaker 3: the future look like of value investing for Ann Maleetti?
Speaker 3: Is you shift the ETF world?
Speaker 1: It's a great question, Tom, thanks for having me on
Speaker 1: and Merry Christmas to you and Paul. Look, I think
Speaker 1: that I like underdogs, not just the Green Bay packers.
Speaker 1: I also I also like a small and mid cap
Speaker 1: here and I think when we look toward the future,
Speaker 1: that's where I really see the most value. Certainly those
Speaker 1: indexes have more financials in them and more you know,
Speaker 1: cyclical names, but they also have some very profitable companies
Speaker 1: that have been kind of just ignored by the rest
Speaker 1: of the market.
Speaker 4: As the Meg seven areas really taken off.
Speaker 3: I mentioned John Carrey and back at Pioneer of Boston
Speaker 3: to the Phil creat Or, you'd have a value fund
Speaker 3: with one hundred and one hundred and fifty dare I
Speaker 3: say two hundred stocks? Are you less diversified now in
Speaker 3: trying to succeed at value versus zoning for growth stocks?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're focused on trying to get investors
Speaker 1: to think more about diversification now.
Speaker 4: We still are really cautious.
Speaker 1: You don't want to be everywhere in this market, but
Speaker 1: there are some really high quality companies out there. And
Speaker 1: one of the things, you know, I followed small and
Speaker 1: mid cap stocks for most of my career, which is
Speaker 1: dating me much longer than I want right now. But
Speaker 1: what people will often associate what small cap companies with
Speaker 1: is that they're unprofitable.
Speaker 4: But there's a lot of.
Speaker 1: Small and mid cap companies that are quite profitable. And
Speaker 1: when you look at the earnings multiples of those companies
Speaker 1: versus the SMP five hundred, they are almost at trough
Speaker 1: levels and So it's those types of companies tom cash
Speaker 1: flow positive in many cases earnings positives, really good management
Speaker 1: teams operating these companies, but just can't get out of
Speaker 1: their own way. So diversific, but looking for high quality still.
Speaker 5: And I know you and your teams at all Spring
Speaker 5: you do a lot of real bottoms up research analysis.
Speaker 5: Are there sectors that screen well for you guys in
Speaker 5: that small to mid cap world?
Speaker 1: There definitely are, Paul, And we have seen financials start
Speaker 1: to outperform. That is one of the areas that our
Speaker 1: managers were highlighting earlier, certainly with rates coming down, other
Speaker 1: pressures coming off that area, and not just the banks,
Speaker 1: but more broadly other financials as well.
Speaker 4: But I would also.
Speaker 1: Say healthcare, and this is an area that a lot
Speaker 1: of the market has been kind of scared away from.
Speaker 1: But the tools in diagnostic space in particular is an
Speaker 1: area that has been underutilized. Where you see earnings expected
Speaker 1: to really ramp in twenty five and twenty six, and
Speaker 1: so where you see that earnings acceleration that can actually
Speaker 1: bring really good returns for shareholders as well.
Speaker 3: We get lucky, as we did yesterday with Dana Telsey
Speaker 3: on Nordstrom's going private. We have a Malletti with us
Speaker 3: from all Spring and Strong and Milwaukee, and this is
Speaker 3: Joshua Franklin in the Financial Times. Pretty much moments ago
Speaker 3: this was rumored and now the ft reports. The US
Speaker 3: Banking Lobby Group has said they filed a lawsuit against
Speaker 3: the FED over the Central banks stress testing, and of
Speaker 3: course the quote here from Greg Bear. We appreciate the
Speaker 3: board's announcement is a first step towards transparency. Are we
Speaker 3: beyond stress tests and Malletti?
Speaker 6: When you look?
Speaker 3: I mean, I get JP Morgan's wonderful, but come on,
Speaker 3: if you look at the top twenty banks after what
Speaker 3: we went through eighteen months ago, can we really get
Speaker 3: beyond stress tests? Stress tests? That's a mouthful. Stress tests
Speaker 3: of our banking lobby?
Speaker 1: You know, Thomas is a really interesting article in a
Speaker 1: comment as well as you know, where have we seen
Speaker 1: concentration grow. It's with banks, and there may be more
Speaker 1: risk out there longer term than less. But I think
Speaker 1: others would point to private credit and private equity soaking
Speaker 1: up some of the slack on the other ends, and
Speaker 1: those areas also funding many businesses.
Speaker 4: But I don't know. We'll have to see what happens
Speaker 4: with that lawsuit.
Speaker 5: Hey, and a lot of folks with the new Trump
Speaker 5: administration coming and are expecting mn A to really pick up.
Speaker 5: Is that something you guys thematically think about for twenty
Speaker 5: twenty five maybe beyond.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I think we're already starting to see it. You know,
Speaker 1: the IPO market is starting to show signs of opening up.
Speaker 1: But I think M and A is real there. You know,
Speaker 1: as you both know, company balance sheets are strong, there's
Speaker 1: a lot of cash on the sidelines when it comes
Speaker 1: to what companies have been kind of holding out, waiting
Speaker 1: to do, waiting to see what the future looks like.
Speaker 1: With A with a lower regulatory environment, with rates continuing
Speaker 1: to come down, maybe not as low as people expect it,
Speaker 1: that's a good environment for M and A. It's another
Speaker 1: reason we like that small and mid cap space. You know,
Speaker 1: these names are kind of ripe and valuations are attractive,
Speaker 1: and so I think M and A will heat up.
Speaker 4: It will be being into twenty five.
Speaker 3: You Paul Sweeney, I look at we mentioned Ben Laidler
Speaker 3: and Christmas Eve twenty eighteen with this great bullmarket call
Speaker 3: at the time at HSBC. I think I set up
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty four percent. I can't remember the number, folks,
Speaker 3: but I got JP Morgan from that same holiday season
Speaker 3: six years ago. Fortress Diamond is up one hundred and
Speaker 3: sixty one percent, seventeen percent per year. I thought banks
Speaker 3: made nominal GDP and you went home.
Speaker 5: Now great returns and they're building a phenomenal headquarters on
Speaker 5: Park Avenue, which I can't wait to see. Hey, And
Speaker 5: one of the things I'm trying to figure out where
Speaker 5: the performance in twenty twenty five could come from. After
Speaker 5: two just stellar years of north with twenty percent returns,
Speaker 5: I feel like it's got to be driven by earnings.
Speaker 5: And sure enough, you know, the earnings growth out there
Speaker 5: is twelve to fourteen percent.
Speaker 7: But boy, that seems yeah, pretty high?
Speaker 5: Is Is there earnings risk out there for you guys?
Speaker 5: Are you thinking about that?
Speaker 6: Paul?
Speaker 4: I agree with you, it seems high.
Speaker 8: It.
Speaker 1: I would have probably said that coming into last year
Speaker 1: although or this past year, but we didn't see tremendous
Speaker 1: earnings growth outside of you know, a real concentrated number of.
Speaker 4: Names this year.
Speaker 1: I think we need to see real earnings growth in
Speaker 1: order to get the market to accelerate. But you know,
Speaker 1: the equity market will continue to surprise. I looked at
Speaker 1: some data going back to nineteen twenty six, so ninety
Speaker 1: nine years. Seventy one of those years, if we can
Speaker 1: count this year, which hopefully we can, have produced positive returns,
Speaker 1: seventy one of ninety six years and thirty two of
Speaker 1: those years have produced returns of over twenty percent. Five
Speaker 1: years in a row of twenty percent. Ernian's Paul, you
Speaker 1: will remember this. This was in the fun times of
Speaker 1: TMT for both of us. Ninety five, ninety six, ninety seven,
Speaker 1: ninety eight, and ninety nine were all plus twenty percent,
Speaker 1: So you know, you'll never know. Maybe we can get
Speaker 1: three this time around.
Speaker 3: Emlodious Apple of value stuck, you know, Tom.
Speaker 1: The way I love to think about this is value
Speaker 1: is what you gain, not what you pay. And so
Speaker 1: I think it all depends on what you paid for
Speaker 1: Apple and how much more game we can get.
Speaker 4: I'm going to use the old buffet phrase for that one.
Speaker 3: Didn't you mention, Paul, like this year, I still I
Speaker 3: need to buy my first year thirty three percent, thirty
Speaker 3: three percent This year I thought they were doing terrible.
Speaker 3: It's like tim kone, you know, it's terrible. Stop the
Speaker 3: road show? Remember those, Yeah, the developer shows.
Speaker 7: Yeah, they still haven't. They're still big, big, big events.
Speaker 3: So is this like a home run for Dan and I?
Speaker 7: He's had a lot of home runs this year.
Speaker 5: He can be sitting back in this ugly clothing that
Speaker 5: he tends to wear, or loud clothing that he.
Speaker 7: Tends to wear for him.
Speaker 5: I know I'm all over him on that, but he's
Speaker 5: a Penn State fan, So okay, we forgive him.
Speaker 3: Okay, So there you go, am Melodia on value, Let
Speaker 3: us continue a couple more questions here on television and
Speaker 3: radio worldwide, Emilidi, I go back to value, and on
Speaker 3: an international basis, the number one failure has been strong dollar,
Speaker 3: resilient dollar international stocks. At some point it's going to
Speaker 3: be a moonshot. When is that?
Speaker 4: You know? Tom?
Speaker 1: I think if we had to pick a dark horse
Speaker 1: going into twenty five and twenty six, we'd probably take
Speaker 1: a shot at having some allocation toward emerging markets. And
Speaker 1: it's exactly you know what you're pointing out. The dollar
Speaker 1: has been so strong it's really pushed back ourmerging markets.
Speaker 4: You know, on top of other things.
Speaker 1: But you know, I think there is real value to
Speaker 1: be had when you look at the MSCI em and
Speaker 1: index versus the S and P five hundred. We're at
Speaker 1: a twenty year trough, and so any kind of positive
Speaker 1: surprise or weakness in the dollar could really cause that
Speaker 1: area of the marketing surge.
Speaker 3: Okay, im Altdi, thank you so much. You have a
Speaker 3: wonderful season. Merry Christmas. Q m Aletti. Is it all
Speaker 3: spring in Milwaukee?
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter. Listen on
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 2: or watch US live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Joining us now, someone who has tried many agnes. Stuart
Speaker 3: Kaiser joins Uskin American Airlines down four percent is well,
Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us in study on Christmas.
Speaker 3: Really really appreciate it.
Speaker 6: Good morning.
Speaker 3: The number one thing we got wrong was growthiness. You
Speaker 3: had the image of Andrew Hollenhorst saying we will have growthiness,
Speaker 3: we will have higher rates. Does the growthiness continue and
Speaker 3: make your life in equity markets better?
Speaker 6: I certainly hope so.
Speaker 9: The Fed seems to think so too, which I think
Speaker 9: was was, you know, a friendly reminder from the SEP
Speaker 9: that it wasn't all about inflation risks that they also
Speaker 9: think the unemployment ra is going to calm down and
Speaker 9: growth is going to remain solid.
Speaker 6: But to be honest, I think that's the biggest risk.
Speaker 9: Early next year with that unemployment report on January tenth,
Speaker 9: we're going to get a very quick test of whether
Speaker 9: the Fed's view of flattening out of unemployment.
Speaker 6: Is the case or not.
Speaker 9: If we do get it, then look, I think equity
Speaker 9: markets are in good shape. If we get an inflection
Speaker 9: point higher, it's going to be a tough start of
Speaker 9: the year.
Speaker 6: I think.
Speaker 5: So what is the twenty twenty five call? Here, we
Speaker 5: had twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, twenty percent plus
Speaker 5: gains in each.
Speaker 7: Of those years.
Speaker 10: How often do we get a thirty year of a
Speaker 10: performance after that.
Speaker 9: I've seen people say it's only happened once, that doesn't
Speaker 9: mean it can't happen again.
Speaker 6: But look, I think I think the issue is.
Speaker 9: You have about call it fifteen fourteen to fifteen percent
Speaker 9: EPs growth price for next year, which is a pretty
Speaker 9: solid number.
Speaker 10: Is that seems almost aggressive to me?
Speaker 9: But yeah, you're gonna need to see a broadening out.
Speaker 9: I think for that to happen, you've got valuation that's
Speaker 9: obviously quite extended. So I think if you take those
Speaker 9: two things together, you're gonna say, yes, I might have
Speaker 9: another double digit year. But the risk reward around that
Speaker 9: forecast is really really tricky here going into going into
Speaker 9: twenty twenty five.
Speaker 10: What are some of the sectors? How are you playing it?
Speaker 10: Either from sector perspective a factor perspective. Are we looking
Speaker 10: for broadening out of performance in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 9: I think sector wise, the area we've seen the most
Speaker 9: consistent sponsorship is in financials and banks, so that seems
Speaker 9: to be the easier trade. You know, obviously tech, you
Speaker 9: need to be in tech. Then you've got things like
Speaker 9: healthcare and energy, which I think have a lot more
Speaker 9: moving parts and are a lot more tricky and you
Speaker 9: need to be nuanced about it.
Speaker 6: From a factor perspective.
Speaker 9: If you believe the Fed's forecast, which is kind of
Speaker 9: a higher for longer profile did well in the first
Speaker 9: half of twenty twenty four. When we traded higher for longer,
Speaker 9: it was large cap, it was tech, and it was growth.
Speaker 9: So I think that has to be your base case
Speaker 9: to start the year, and to get the broadening, you're
Speaker 9: gonna need to see that in earnings like we did
Speaker 9: back in the third quarter.
Speaker 3: My tweet of the day here, everybody's working on Christmas Eve.
Speaker 3: They're all at home having their Kirklin eggnug with a
Speaker 3: twenty nine proof. According to Lisa Mateo's reporting, Lawrence McDonald,
Speaker 3: who had my essay two years ago walking through the
Speaker 3: wall of money that's out there, the six trillion, whatever
Speaker 3: the number is, I can't remember. He lists over the
Speaker 3: last ten years the thirty year bond two point seven,
Speaker 3: mid point two point three, down, COVID one point nine,
Speaker 3: and we're back out to like a four point eight
Speaker 3: percent in the thirty year bond. Have you been surprised
Speaker 3: we've had this great bull market with a migration up
Speaker 3: and yield.
Speaker 6: Yeah, we have been a little bit.
Speaker 9: And I do think the term premium, particularly that thirty
Speaker 9: year point in the yield.
Speaker 3: To find that for people like Lisa Mantaeo having your
Speaker 3: third Kirkland Egnie, what God's name.
Speaker 9: Is term previous term premium, just how steep the bond
Speaker 9: term structure is. So in this case, a steepening of
Speaker 9: the term structure, and our view would mean the thirty
Speaker 9: year yield is rising substantially. I think if that happens,
Speaker 9: it's a significant risk for US equity markets. And the
Speaker 9: reason is this. We could talk about the ten year yield,
Speaker 9: which you mentioned at four point six percent. We can
Speaker 9: come up with a good reason the ten year yield
Speaker 9: might go to five or five and a half if
Speaker 9: we've got a very positive growth impulse.
Speaker 6: It's very hard to come up.
Speaker 9: With a positive reason the thirty year yield would really
Speaker 9: move higher. So that is probably going to come from
Speaker 9: inflation and deficit spending and things of that nature. So
Speaker 9: if there's a part of the yield curve that we
Speaker 9: are concerned about, it would definitely be really at the
Speaker 9: very long end of things.
Speaker 5: What are your clients telling you about this new Trump
Speaker 5: administration coming in later in January?
Speaker 10: Are they positioning around that?
Speaker 5: Are they treating it as a non event or are
Speaker 5: they becoming more bullish on the margin.
Speaker 7: What are you hearing from your clients.
Speaker 6: I would say definitely not treating it some non event.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 9: I would say, if you think of the election, you
Speaker 9: had a sentiment response early, then you had a response
Speaker 9: to kind of policy proposals next year is implementation, and
Speaker 9: the implementation part I think carris a.
Speaker 7: Lot of risk to it.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 9: You know, it's easy to talk about tariffs, but now
Speaker 9: let's implement tariffs. It's easy to talk about, you know,
Speaker 9: reigning and government spending. We saw with the Continuing Resolution
Speaker 9: the market got a little bit concerned with that, and
Speaker 9: I think I think the market's response to that Continuing
Speaker 9: Resolution is a shot across the bow that when you
Speaker 9: actually go to implement these policies, it can create volatility.
Speaker 9: I actually think a lot of clients are holding trades
Speaker 9: like let's say, long dollar long US equities, and as
Speaker 9: we get closer to that January twentieth, it wouldn't surprise
Speaker 9: me to see some of that risk kind of trimmed
Speaker 9: a little bit, whether as the uncertainty or slash the
Speaker 9: reality of policy implementation really really hits them in the face.
Speaker 5: Is there anything that concerns you in terms of valuation here?
Speaker 5: I'm just not sure how to get comfortable with evaluation.
Speaker 5: Maybe I can pull out the mag seven get a
Speaker 5: little bit more comfortable there. I mean, what are you
Speaker 5: guys doing on your desk, your clients thinking about, you.
Speaker 6: Know, valuation? That we think of that as potential energy.
Speaker 9: So yeah, there is a risk you can sell off
Speaker 9: from a high valuation point, but you need a catalyst
Speaker 9: to do it.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 9: The other thing about valuation is unless you have a
Speaker 9: holding period of twenty four months or beyond, valuation probably
Speaker 9: shouldn't be your number one consideration. So I would say
Speaker 9: right here, if you get the earnings growth that the
Speaker 9: market's forecasting, the valuation is going to be fine. If
Speaker 9: you start to get Ernie's growth decelerated, unemployment rate rising
Speaker 9: all of a sudden, now you're selling off from a
Speaker 9: much higher level. So I think it's a risk reward discussion.
Speaker 9: So we're very aware of it, but we're kind of
Speaker 9: looking for what could activate that risk.
Speaker 3: And Stuart, thank you so much for coming in. I
Speaker 3: love your segments on industry. I just think they're really
Speaker 3: really great when they show you in the trading before
Speaker 3: keeping the young Turks come, mister Kaiser, is the city Grilled?
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern Our play in Android Auto
Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just
Speaker 2: say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: We're going to spend some time here on the politics
Speaker 3: of the moment. There's no one better to do that
Speaker 3: with a Gautamcunda, yes, a professor at Yale's School of Management,
Speaker 3: but far more his book Picking Presidents really alludes to
Speaker 3: the follow up I'm kidding in jest picking Billionaires. Gotta
Speaker 3: mccundan now on Elon Musk into twenty twenty five. Professor,
Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining in one of your
Speaker 3: side notes. You say, the tension within the Trump administration
Speaker 3: of Secretary of State Rubio and the newly minted Elbridge
Speaker 3: Coldby versus business types that need to do business in
Speaker 3: Shanghai like Musk is tangible. Is that what we need
Speaker 3: to look forward to as a raging Chinese debate at
Speaker 3: sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue.
Speaker 11: It's hard to see how that won't happen.
Speaker 12: I mean, the big chunk of the Trump administration is
Speaker 12: people who have defined their foreign policy stance around conflict
Speaker 12: with China, hopefully not armed, but still remark levels of hostility,
Speaker 12: though they are just a new part of the relationship,
Speaker 12: and some of the major players in the Trump administration,
Speaker 12: Elon Musk in particular, more than anyone else, are enormously
Speaker 12: dependent on trade with China. Must wants to put billions
Speaker 12: of dollars of investment into China, and most of Jesscol's
Speaker 12: profits seem to come from China. It's hard to see
Speaker 12: how those two won't be at loggerheads.
Speaker 5: What do you think, how do you think this is
Speaker 5: going to play out here? I mean, I think a
Speaker 5: lot of folks in Washington, DC, a lot of folks
Speaker 5: who think about policy matters for this incoming administration trying
Speaker 5: to figure out what role Elon Musk is going to
Speaker 5: play and for how long do you have any insight
Speaker 5: into that?
Speaker 12: So this is something new in American politics. There has
Speaker 12: never been a civilian as powerful as Elon Musk. For
Speaker 12: in American history. It's hard to find anyone in sort
Speaker 12: of like British history or who's most comparable. If we
Speaker 12: go through he's not just the wealthiest person in the
Speaker 12: world and maybe the single most important media figure, he's
Speaker 12: also America's single most irreplaceable defense contractor. Right, you could
Speaker 12: swap out going for Locke Martin, You couldn't swap out
Speaker 12: SpaceX for anyone. So that level of stature is just
Speaker 12: astonishing and hard to I mean any He would be
Speaker 12: a major player in any government.
Speaker 11: But at the.
Speaker 12: Same time, at the same time, he's sort of showed
Speaker 12: a willingness to kind of conduct his own foreign policy.
Speaker 11: He's you know, he had pair.
Speaker 12: Peers to speak with Vladimir Putin on a regular basis
Speaker 12: and then turns around and kind of tweets out stuff
Speaker 12: that looks a lot like Russian propaganda. He has enormous
Speaker 12: financial interests in China that swamp. You know, they may
Speaker 12: be larger financial interests in China than those of any
Speaker 12: other person in the United States.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 12: And so at the same time, if you're Marco Rubio
Speaker 12: or Bridge Bolby, I mean, what you've been talking about
Speaker 12: for ten years is we need to prepare against China.
Speaker 12: And I'll just note right now, in the sort of
Speaker 12: the conflict over the government shutdown, the most interesting thing
Speaker 12: that happened was the initial bill was killed because of Mosque.
Speaker 12: The bill that finally passed did not address any of
Speaker 12: Musk's confirmed with the original bill. If anything, it was
Speaker 12: worse by his standard que measure. He was by the
Speaker 12: ways he was measuring it. But the big change was
Speaker 12: it stripped out the cause that prevented Americans from making
Speaker 12: significant investments in China and and sort of advanced Chinese manufacturer.
Speaker 11: That was gone, and.
Speaker 12: Somehow the bill passed the second time, which suggests that
Speaker 12: maybe must go exactly what he wanted.
Speaker 5: So what are some of the takeaways from that funding
Speaker 5: bill practice that we saw a week or so ago.
Speaker 5: It seems like maybe Congress, in particular the Senate, kind
Speaker 5: of trying to assert its independence of its branch of government.
Speaker 5: Does that suggests how maybe these first one hundred days
Speaker 5: will go for the Trump administration.
Speaker 11: It doesn't.
Speaker 12: I think what it suggests is that senators and congressmen
Speaker 12: are realizing that, however much Americans might admire Elon Musk's.
Speaker 11: Business success, they didn't elect him to run the country.
Speaker 12: And you know, no matter how that, there's been some
Speaker 12: focus groups where even hardcore Trump supporters are sort of
Speaker 12: looking at Musk's role and going, we did not vote
Speaker 12: for this guy. So it's not clear what's going on here.
Speaker 6: But what I.
Speaker 12: Would draw back on is I think we should American
Speaker 12: politics look more like court politics right now than they
Speaker 12: do traditional politics.
Speaker 11: I keep drawing on sort of stuff from the Roman.
Speaker 12: Empire and the Byzantine Empire, because there's this clashes of personalities.
Speaker 12: So the person who springs to mind for me, for
Speaker 12: Elon Musk is Crassus, the richest of all the Romans,
Speaker 12: the figure who was in the first Triumvirate with Pompey
Speaker 12: and Caesar. I mean, he was a crucial figure in
Speaker 12: the transition of the Roman Republic to the Roman Empire.
Speaker 12: And Crassus sort of he bankrolled other people until and
Speaker 12: he played an the North role behind the scenes. It
Speaker 12: was incredibly powerful until he decided that he wanted to
Speaker 12: rule himself directly. And while he had incredible financial skills
Speaker 12: and incredible sort of back back room that you bring skills,
Speaker 12: that was not his skill set. He did not. He
Speaker 12: was not a successful He was not successful politician. And
Speaker 12: it ended very differ cross.
Speaker 3: Professor were weaned on. You know, you get to city history.
Speaker 3: March second, eighteen sixty one, Lincoln's first inauguration, and I'm
Speaker 3: sure they had a whole frenzy about pecking order, about
Speaker 3: who would sit where and all that. Where should Elon
Speaker 3: Musk sit at the second inauguration of Donald Trump?
Speaker 12: I mean, judging by his level of influence, he should
Speaker 12: be right up on stage, hold on.
Speaker 3: The Bible, the Trump.
Speaker 12: Right, but I mean with his hand right on Trump's
Speaker 12: shoulders as the as the oh come on, It's going to.
Speaker 3: Be seriously like, is he on stage? Does he sit
Speaker 3: two rows behind President Biden? Is he out in the
Speaker 3: cheap seats, you know, halfway back to the Lincoln Memorial?
Speaker 3: Which is it.
Speaker 6: So his thing?
Speaker 12: I would never underestimate Musk savvy, right like he has.
Speaker 12: He spent two hundred and fifty million dollars to make
Speaker 12: himself the second most powerful person in the United States.
Speaker 12: So if I were giving Musk advice, I would tell
Speaker 12: him he should be so far away the cameras can't
Speaker 12: find him on the zoo. That was a smart play
Speaker 12: for him, is to be as slow he as possible,
Speaker 12: and the Trump people should think the same thing. But
Speaker 12: I wonder Trump must like Trump likes to be the
Speaker 12: main character, and it's a little hard for me to
Speaker 12: imagine him yielding focus to quite that extent.
Speaker 3: Professor, thank you so much. Scott A. McCunn has been
Speaker 3: a huge, huge advantage for Bloomberg Surveillance this year. We
Speaker 3: greatly appreciate his efforts readable and advanced picking presidents. Is
Speaker 3: the book really really quite something? As well?
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 2: Auto with Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us
Speaker 2: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 3: Your daily look at the front pages the Christmas Eve edition.
Speaker 3: It's brought to you by IBKR Financial Advisor. Switch to
Speaker 3: interact to brokers for lowest cost global trading and turnkey
Speaker 3: custody solutions. No ticket charges, no conflicts of your interests
Speaker 3: at ibkr dot com. Slasha, IBKR, Thank you for you
Speaker 3: many gifts to us this year. Put the Kirklan egg
Speaker 3: bag down.
Speaker 6: Please, what do you got? I got it.
Speaker 8: We'll start at the financial time. So they're saying this
Speaker 8: is interesting. Chief executives publicly traded US companies they're leaving
Speaker 8: in record numbers. This is despite different paint bonuses that
Speaker 8: they're getting. The reason why they have this fear of
Speaker 8: turmoil in twenty twenty five. They're looking ahead to the
Speaker 8: next year. This is according to Challenger Gray. So here
Speaker 8: are the numbers. So in the year to November, three
Speaker 8: hundred and twenty seven chief executives at US public companies
Speaker 8: announced that they were leaving, And if you compare that
Speaker 8: to three hundred and twelve that left in twenty nineteen,
Speaker 8: they say, a big part of it. You've heard about it, right,
Speaker 8: the blue chip companies Boeing, Nike, the leaders at Intel,
Speaker 8: they step down this year. Sinking share prices one of
Speaker 8: the reasons. But another concern they say they have is
Speaker 8: President like Trump, Donald Trump's tariffs. So you have the
Speaker 8: CEOs overseeing global supply chains they are thinking of retiring,
Speaker 8: considering it because they just don't want to deal with
Speaker 8: the headache of it all.
Speaker 5: Let's also think it's probably the fact that we've had
Speaker 5: two monster years in the stock market where their stockholdings,
Speaker 5: their personal stockholdings are probably at all time highs, and
Speaker 5: they're like, I'm done, you know what, I want to
Speaker 5: deal with this stuff anymore. My stock is worth a
Speaker 5: jillion dollars. I'm going to just step aside and go
Speaker 5: down to Boca.
Speaker 3: I love the phrase we heard yesterday going back to
Speaker 3: Harvey Schwartz, who they talked about protail, which is professional
Speaker 3: retail YEP, protail exactly know there it is, what do
Speaker 3: you got next?
Speaker 8: The next is about Apple that they could be Uh,
Speaker 8: it could be means some big money for Apple. This
Speaker 8: is from web Bush, you know, Dan ives yes. Estimates
Speaker 8: three hundred million iPhones are over four years old, so
Speaker 8: that means it could lead to record upgrade, so more
Speaker 8: people are gonna need the new one and that's gonna
Speaker 8: help push Apple to a four trillion dollar market cap
Speaker 8: by early twenty twenty five. He also told clients they're
Speaker 8: headed for a strong holiday season because all those hundreds
Speaker 8: of millions of people worldwide they're gonna need to upgrade
Speaker 8: to those AI capabilities that the iPhones are coming with,
Speaker 8: and also big key sales in the China market, which
Speaker 8: he says is the key to all.
Speaker 3: Is anybody here used AI capabilities? I wouldn't know what
Speaker 3: if it was looking at.
Speaker 10: It pops up on your on your Google search.
Speaker 5: Now is that before you kind of get to like
Speaker 5: the generic Wikipedia answer to whatever you're acquering, it'll it'll
Speaker 5: pop up there. So they're they're force feeding you it
Speaker 5: and it's it's helpful. I mean it's it's helpful, but
Speaker 5: I'm not fully engaging with it.
Speaker 7: That's something that's going to take time.
Speaker 5: But I'm looking at you know, Apple, It's got a
Speaker 5: market cap in three point eighty six billion dollars right now.
Speaker 7: So just to whisper away from four trillion.
Speaker 5: Yeah, a three point eight six trillion market cap, close
Speaker 5: to Fortullion.
Speaker 3: I just googled American Air grounded and I got no way.
Speaker 10: I forgot no, I didn't have anything.
Speaker 4: I'm still very this morning.
Speaker 8: Next good point, Okay, are you ready for football on Christmas?
Speaker 10: With Netflix?
Speaker 3: A huge steal? Well, it went wrong a couple of
Speaker 3: days ago. Somebody had out it was. It was not successful.
Speaker 8: It's not okay, So hopefully you have the Netflix subscription
Speaker 8: stand will bring that for you. Two NFL games, right,
Speaker 8: you got the Chiefs and the Steelers one pm, Eastern
Speaker 8: Ravens at the Texans four thirty pm. You can though,
Speaker 8: you know, watch it for you over the AIRTV and
Speaker 8: the whole markets for the team. So just want to
Speaker 8: put that out there. But two questions, is it okay
Speaker 8: to watch seven hours of football on TV on Christmas?
Speaker 8: And the second one, you know you had the glitches
Speaker 8: when you had that Jake All Mike Tyson fight. Football
Speaker 8: fans are are just.
Speaker 4: Not as forgiving.
Speaker 8: So we'll see if that can stand up to the
Speaker 8: test there. And then you have the debate too, because
Speaker 8: it's kind of taking the spotlight off the NBA, which
Speaker 8: is really you know, had their whole Christmas summary. So
Speaker 8: there's that debate too. And then the players, I mean,
Speaker 8: now they got to play four teams. They're going to
Speaker 8: play three games in eleven days, so that means they're
Speaker 8: playing more real injury.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, and this is the biggest thing for
Speaker 5: Netflix here is to from a technical perspective, no glitches.
Speaker 7: The bar is super high on the NFL.
Speaker 5: It's one thing to do, you know, like a tennis
Speaker 5: match or something, and it doesn't really work or there's
Speaker 5: you know, technical problems.
Speaker 7: You cannot do that with the NFL.
Speaker 10: So this is a big, big deal.
Speaker 3: Let's be optimistic. It succeeds what's Paul Sweeney's timeline where
Speaker 3: CBS loses football.
Speaker 5: You know what's gonna happen the NFL. There, there's nobody
Speaker 5: better in the world of this. There are going to
Speaker 5: have their product on every single distribution platform out there.
Speaker 5: Traditional broadcasts, networks, cable networks, streaming, multiple streaming, multiple streamings,
Speaker 5: they're gonna because why then you get more and more
Speaker 5: people bidding on the rights for your product. And it's
Speaker 5: up to CBS whether you want to put it on
Speaker 5: the CBS network or paramount the streaming plus whatever that is. Uh,
Speaker 5: nobody is better than the NFL in maximizing the value
Speaker 5: of their game.
Speaker 10: So I have to see it's good to squeeze one more. Okay,
Speaker 10: one more.
Speaker 8: This is the big social media debate. It's called gentle parenting. Okay,
Speaker 8: this is hashtag gentle. I know you're gonna love this.
Speaker 10: Okay.
Speaker 8: So there's four rules. Empathy, understanding, respect, and boundaries. Okay,
Speaker 8: you have to talk about feelings, you know, when they're
Speaker 8: having a tantrum. You got to get down to their level,
Speaker 8: make eye contact, validate their concerns. Say it's okay, I understand. Okay,
Speaker 8: if they hit another kid, you say, don't hit you say,
Speaker 8: use gentle hands. Okay, though that's the learning now, and
Speaker 8: you're I'm not supposed to count to three. Remember that
Speaker 8: used to be the thing, like I'm going to count
Speaker 8: to three.
Speaker 10: I did that.
Speaker 4: I got to say, is this working?
Speaker 7: I haven't done it.
Speaker 8: I haven't done the gentle.
Speaker 10: Her house If I know that the case.
Speaker 3: You talk about tantrums in the kitchen. When I hear
Speaker 3: this stuff rested, got news.
Speaker 5: Here on the American airlines nationwide ground stop cancel, every
Speaker 5: a says, so good.
Speaker 7: News for everybody else.
Speaker 3: They think they got it fixed.
Speaker 8: Okay, good, Yes, yeah, when you have the crying kid
Speaker 8: in the airline, yes, how do you handle that with
Speaker 8: the gentle I'm flowing back.
Speaker 5: In a coast to coast for twenty years with little kids,
Speaker 5: so I have empathy for those parents, so I try
Speaker 5: to be the you know, empathety. That's at some point
Speaker 5: I turn around, I'm like, mom, Dad, get a hold
Speaker 5: of your kid.
Speaker 9: Here.
Speaker 10: You're in charge, You're the boss, hear it.
Speaker 3: I feel sad for it. I just really, you know,
Speaker 3: I mean, you had all the right phrases, Lisa, of
Speaker 3: what this thing is.
Speaker 8: Yeah, and you know what it is. They're saying it's
Speaker 8: bigger now because now the adults are starting to be
Speaker 8: more aware of their mental health. So now they're passing
Speaker 8: that down onto their kids. I mean, it wasn't a
Speaker 8: thing when when my kids were younger, there was no
Speaker 8: such thing as gentle parents.
Speaker 13: If you don't next generation go to that in the
Speaker 13: next fifteen minutes, you don't get a sip because Santa
Speaker 13: is not showing up and I'm gonna play Andy Williams.
Speaker 3: For the entire Christmas Day. Stay with us on this
Speaker 3: Christmas Eve post me Tom Keen, Michael Barr, and Lisa
Speaker 3: Matteo with that Dog. This is the Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you
Speaker 2: get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten
Speaker 2: am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In,
Speaker 2: and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
Speaker 2: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: terminal