1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 2: I don't want to turn this into a history lesson 7 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 2: with the hobby of Blast, but I can do that. 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,959 Speaker 2: The wide acclaim for his book of a few years ago, 9 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:37,200 Speaker 2: The World for Sale, Money, power and the traders who 10 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 2: barter Earth resources encyclopedic on what we see within the 11 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: Middle East and hydrocarbons as well. Javier, I want to 12 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 2: narrow down to one little image, and this is in 13 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 2: southwestern Iran where British Petrolium more it's precursors agreed with 14 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: the Shah of Iran in nineteen oh one to set 15 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: up what became Abadan, which is the refinery site literally 16 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:08,199 Speaker 2: back to nineteen twelve. Is our goal to take out 17 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: those kind of oil infrastructures. 18 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 3: I don't know what is the goal of the United 19 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 3: States of Israel. We have seen President Trump making an 20 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 3: argument for several goals in in Iran, from the nuclear 21 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 3: power program, to overthrow the regime to destroy the Iranian navy. 22 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 3: But it's not very clear or other than I think 23 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 3: that President trum wants all of the above with the Iran. 24 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 3: I don't think that the Iranian oil can be taken, 25 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 3: not without involving ground troops. That is something that both 26 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 3: President Trump and the White House have said. 27 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 4: That there is not the intention of the US government. 28 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 3: So I don't think that the Iranian oil can be grabbed, 29 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 3: not at all. 30 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 2: If I look at the arc of the oil business now, 31 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 2: I was really quite taken yesterday by the size of 32 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 2: Iran's oil production even now beliaguered as compared to you 33 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 2: across the Gulf United are Emirates. Is a general myth. 34 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 2: Is Iran oil larger than we perceive? 35 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 3: Yes, we kind of have this thought that Iran is 36 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 3: on his knees because of ys DK is actually of Sancians. 37 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 3: But Iran has been very effective in bypassing those sanctions 38 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 3: which have been at times less than enforced by successive 39 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:37,679 Speaker 3: American governments, including the current Trump administration, where Iran has 40 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 3: been able to export millions billions of dollars of oil 41 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 3: to China. But Iran is producing currently the most oil 42 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 3: when you put all the oil, all the oil liquids, 43 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 3: so that includes crude oil and some things that we 44 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 3: call natural gas liquids and condensations. 45 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 4: When you put all. 46 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,799 Speaker 3: That number together, it comes to more than four and 47 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 3: a half million billars a day and. 48 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 4: Is the highest in forty six years. 49 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 3: So, yes, the loction of Iran is larger than what 50 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 3: typically is recognized even inside the oil market. 51 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 5: You know, Javier, prior to these attacks, the oil market 52 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 5: was in good shape in the sense that we were 53 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 5: a wash in oil. We are a wash in oil. 54 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 5: We have a US shale revolution. So my question is 55 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 5: what might the impact be to the global oil market 56 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 5: if this drags on for five weeks from now, Because 57 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:25,519 Speaker 5: I have to tell you Brent crude up eight and 58 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 5: a half percent. I thought we might even see it 59 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 5: spike a lot higher than that. 60 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 3: Well, you have asked me, say twenty years ago, two 61 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 3: thousand and six, and you have described to me what 62 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 3: has happened over the last forty eight hours, which if 63 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 3: I can't summarize, goes more or less as follow the 64 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 3: United States and Israel lounge, a coordinated attack against Iran 65 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 3: that kills the Supreme leader and much of the Iranian 66 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 3: establishment and then bomb multiple targets. It then responds in fashion, 67 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 3: hitting with missiles and drone multiple countries across the Persian Gulf, 68 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 3: including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and traffic in 69 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 3: the state of Hermonst effectively comes to a hale. And 70 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 3: you tell me what is the price of oil? I 71 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,840 Speaker 3: don't know if I think probably my price of oil 72 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 3: at that point starts with a two two hundred dollars 73 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty one hundred and seventy five, two 74 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 3: hundred dollars. Here we are up, you know, looking at 75 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 3: my Bloomberg spreen at seventy nine dollars Bran seventy two 76 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 3: dollars WTI, I mean we were much much higher at 77 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty five dollars only a few years ago, 78 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 3: three years ago when Russia in Ukraine. 79 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 4: So far, the reaction of the market is quite. 80 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 3: Measure and that speaks about the amount of inventories and 81 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 3: the weakness of the physical market. Also, that is, if 82 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 3: anything is going to happen in the oil market. Right now, 83 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 3: the beginning of March is the perfect time of the year. 84 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,239 Speaker 3: We are heading into a sprint low season for oil 85 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 3: plenty of time to recover before the summer. The and 86 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 3: it starts is when refineries typically shut down for maintenance, 87 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 3: annual maintenance. 88 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 4: So that's the background. 89 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:11,839 Speaker 3: But you're asking what happens if this goes as President 90 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 3: Trump I think he said overnight in an interview with 91 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 3: The New York Times, what happens if. 92 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 4: This goes for four or five weeks. 93 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 3: I'm really concerned that the market at the moment is 94 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 3: not really thinking four or five weeks. He is thinking 95 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 3: about more like four or five days. This goes at 96 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 3: this pace for more than four or five days, I 97 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 3: think that we need to move much much higher than 98 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 3: we are today across America. 99 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 2: How you a blast with us this morning from Queen 100 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 2: Victoria Street. We welcome all of you around the world again. 101 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 2: One of the best ways to get us is a 102 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 2: new digital expression. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts out at YouTube. 103 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 2: A lot of people likes. They don't even look at me. 104 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 2: They just listen to YouTube. That's what it's a trick. 105 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 2: They watch YouTube. Give another question for Abby and we 106 00:05:57,520 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 2: have a headline. 107 00:05:58,400 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 5: I want to get to this headline. Yeah, so we 108 00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 5: know other President Trump said that we should expect more 109 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 5: casualties in this war, and we are seeing that number rise. 110 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 5: Now four US service members have been killed in action. 111 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 5: This coming from the US jabier. I want to ask 112 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:16,359 Speaker 5: about the Straight of Hormones. We know a fifth of 113 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 5: the world's oil comes through that critical strait. Aram says 114 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 5: they're keeping it open, but for all intents and purposes, 115 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 5: when tankers try to get through and are being shot at, 116 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 5: can we say the Straight of Hormoves is closed. 117 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 4: For big tankers. 118 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 3: Es certainly is closed because no one is taking that race. 119 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 3: They have been so few tankers that they are taking 120 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 3: the race. Overnight. We have a couple of tankers that crossed, 121 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 3: but those had the small tankers typically full or refined products. 122 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 3: But the big well, we think about a super tanker 123 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 3: three hundred meters long. 124 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 4: The strait is closed. 125 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 3: Is not only what the Iranians are saying, is the 126 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:53,160 Speaker 3: perception of race, and is the fact that the insurance 127 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 3: is very hard to get to cross the Strait of 128 00:06:55,400 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 3: Hormones unless in the next few days and I will 129 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,799 Speaker 3: say by the middle late of the week, the Pentagon 130 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 3: cannot say categorically the Strata Hormones is open and safe, 131 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 3: and we can we are making that promise. I think 132 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 3: that the White House is going to start feeling the 133 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 3: heat of the oil market. 134 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 2: You mentioned and your important essay in mister Putin of Russia. 135 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 2: How the Chinese respond to this? 136 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 3: From where you said, China buys more blue oil from 137 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 3: the Middle East than any other country in the world, 138 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 3: so they. 139 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 4: Are very exposed. They have two benefits. 140 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 3: There's a lot of black market blacklisted assaansion groupe from 141 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 3: both Iran and Russia that it was floating around in. 142 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 4: Tankas with no buyers China for the next few days 143 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 4: and potentially a few weeks come mop up. That's surplus. 144 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 3: And I think that that China is fine for now. 145 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 3: And China has been building for the last few years 146 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 3: a significant esthetic petroleum reserve, similar insights to the American one, 147 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 3: so they have tools. But certainly if a country is 148 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 3: e supposed to China, the question to me is the 149 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 3: country that is going to feel the pressure earlier. It's 150 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 3: going to be India because it buys a lot of 151 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 3: energy from the Middle is also from the Persian golf 152 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 3: in particular, and it doesn't have the say kind of 153 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 3: surplus that China has, so India potentially in trouble. 154 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 2: We hope to call upon you again. Have a this 155 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 2: week and into March as well. And of course he's 156 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 2: writing for Bloomberg Opinion. His essay is out this morning. 157 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 2: Have a blast of a Queen Victoria Street. Oil prices 158 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 2: will get nasty, but this won't be a shock. We 159 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 2: thank him for his support. Stay with us. More from 160 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 161 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 162 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 163 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business Up or 164 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:03,319 Speaker 1: what Us Live on YouTube. 165 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 2: Henrietta Trace now with a domestic brief with veda partner. 166 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:12,079 Speaker 2: She's been a huge advantage to Bloomberg Surveillance with their perspective. Henrietta. 167 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 2: I used all my computer power to keep up with 168 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 2: Henrietta trays and offer the Detroit Free Press. I note 169 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 2: that the president defeated the vice president in the election 170 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 2: forty nine point seven percent to forty eight point three percent. 171 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 2: Can this kind of war, an Iran war which Kamala 172 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 2: Harris calls regime change war of President Trump? Can this 173 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 2: war shift the close elections of America? 174 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 6: We're actually about to find out tomorrow. 175 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 7: There are primaries on the Democratic and the Republican side, 176 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 7: and the House and the Senate up and down the 177 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 7: state of Texas, and I think it's an exceptional proxy. 178 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 7: They're exposed to oil, they're exposed to the military, they're 179 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 7: exposed to the national conversation about which kind of Democrat 180 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 7: should replace Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, what kind of 181 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 7: Republicans should replace Donald Trump, and which direction the parties 182 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 7: want to go in That race. 183 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 6: Is going to be fascinating. 184 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 7: And turnout is the root turning out more than the 185 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 7: presidential and I at this point last I saw over 186 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 7: a million Democrats had voted and just shy of a 187 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 7: million Republicans. 188 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 6: So it's a turning point for engagement. 189 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,959 Speaker 7: This is exactly what we've heard from members like former 190 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,319 Speaker 7: President Obama saying, if you want to change this, you've 191 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 7: got to turn out and vote. 192 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 6: And that's what's happening. 193 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 2: Give us the dynamics of the Democratic Party from what 194 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 2: I'm going to call a more visible, more modern left, 195 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 2: maybe Vice President Harris of California being an example of that, 196 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,559 Speaker 2: and bring it over to Jack Reid in Rhode Island 197 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 2: as well. Is there a measured Democratic party that would 198 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 2: be in support of the events in I run. 199 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 7: Jack Reed is one of the Institution's most esteemed members 200 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 7: at this point on both sides of the aisle as 201 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 7: the leader of the Armed Services Committee and Foreign Policy, 202 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 7: and his direction is unparalleled at this point, and his stature, 203 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 7: I mean, really can't be replaced. I remember when I 204 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 7: worked on a campaign in Rhode Island many years ago, 205 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 7: he was still even then at the front of the race. 206 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 7: The differences between what Democrats are thinking right now suggest 207 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 7: that the War Powers resolution. 208 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 6: Is very likely to fail later on this week. 209 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 7: The Senate will vote on Tuesday, and the House maybe 210 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 7: on Thursday, and it looks likely to me that the 211 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 7: President has at least John Fetterman in his side from 212 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 7: Pennsylvania to vote and make it look bipartisan. 213 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 6: And really, the only. 214 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 7: Thing I can say is that there must be something 215 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 7: in the water in Kentucky, because the Republicans from Kentucky 216 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,839 Speaker 7: are the only ones who are willing to actually stand 217 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 7: up to the President and say, hey, the American public 218 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 7: is a negative twenty one percent a rating of the 219 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 7: President's handling a foreign policy and unfortunately for the president. 220 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 7: That makes it the third least popular agenda item, followed 221 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 7: by the economy, which is underwater by twenty four points, 222 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 7: and the cost of living, which is under what are 223 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 7: by thirty something points. So the president's top initiatives tariffs. 224 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 7: Foreign policy, whether it's Venezuela or Cuba or Iran now 225 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 7: is extraordinarily unpopular, but the Republican base continues to be 226 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 7: extraordinarily tethered with the load exception of Kentucky. 227 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 5: If the War Powers Resolution were to pass though Henrietta, 228 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 5: if it were made law. Congress hasn't done that, I 229 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 5: guess since during the Vietnam War, right as a check 230 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 5: on executive war authority. That would that be the last 231 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 5: time that was enacted. 232 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 7: You know, Alex, I think this is such a fascinating 233 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,559 Speaker 7: conversation topic because here's the deal. You have the War 234 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,960 Speaker 7: Powers Resolution, but even the vote is opt optically problematic. 235 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 7: You know, the President is out here waging a war 236 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 7: in the Middle East with you know, different allies exposed now, 237 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 7: whether it's Kuwait, whether it's the United Kingdom and their 238 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 7: military bases being attacked. 239 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 6: I mean, this is going to be expansive. 240 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 7: So the War Powers Resolution just having the vote signals 241 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 7: that there might be duress and distress domestically that the 242 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,080 Speaker 7: President's going to be rained in by. And so there's 243 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 7: this legal question of whether the War Powers resolution even 244 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 7: needs to pass with the veto proof majority, or if 245 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 7: simply passing with fifty one votes in the House in 246 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 7: the Senate is significant to say, hey, the president's lost 247 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 7: the ship here. 248 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 6: He doesn't have the backing of the. 249 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 7: US public, and he might lose some of his support abroad. 250 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 7: That's the fascinating dynamics. So, of course, you know, our 251 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 7: base case expectation with you know, one hundred percent odds 252 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 7: should be that there are no veto proof majorities for 253 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 7: this legislation. But it's the message that's sent by even 254 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 7: holding the vote. The White House is pushing back on 255 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 7: give us quickly. 256 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 2: Here, Henrietta, and we'd love to have you on later 257 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 2: this week as well. What is your estimation of a 258 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 2: length of this conflict, this war? It seems to be 259 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 2: we're out weeks. I feel like the beginning of the 260 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 2: Civil War in eighteen sixty one. What's the appropriate political 261 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 2: length of a war? That's okay? 262 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 7: I think the American public is very pessimistic that this 263 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 7: is going to be over quickly. There's been some interesting 264 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,079 Speaker 7: polling showing thirty plus percent of Americans think that this 265 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 7: is going to last for years because of our institutional 266 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 7: muscle memory around the Middle East and engaging there. The 267 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 7: plurality behind years is that this will last for weeks. 268 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 7: What disturbs me a little is that the President was 269 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 7: calling you know, I think ten reporters over the weekend 270 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 7: and seemingly workshopping different durations a couple of days, four 271 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 7: or five weeks. 272 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 6: There is no near term end plan, and no end plan. 273 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 7: Really that I can divine, given that we have extracted 274 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 7: regime change, the former leader is dead, and there is escalation, 275 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 7: and now four military deaths of US servicemen. So the 276 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 7: American public beliefs that this is going to extend into 277 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 7: weeks at a minimum, and I'm inclined to agree with that. 278 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 2: A valued conversation, Henrietta Trees of Beta Partners, Thank you 279 00:14:55,280 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 2: so much. Stay with us more from Bloomberg's survey coming 280 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 2: up after this. 281 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 282 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 283 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or 284 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 285 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 2: Kathy Jones joins his chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. 286 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 2: Is the fixed income dynamics now, Kathy, would you call 287 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 2: it contained or is it waiting for a little more panic? 288 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 3: Today? 289 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 8: Is contained? And I think this is partly due to 290 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 8: the fact that the markets started to position for some 291 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 8: event in the Middle East and Iran over the last 292 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 8: week or two, so we saw yields drifting down, particularly 293 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 8: at the long end of the curve ahead of the weekend, 294 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 8: So that partly has mitigated the response here. But I 295 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 8: do think that there's an element of now now that 296 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 8: we're here, now that things have started to happen, of 297 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 8: the market seting and waiting to see how prolonged will 298 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 8: this be, what will happen with energy prices, how will 299 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 8: that flow through the economy. So right now I think 300 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 8: the fixed income market is just kind of holding steady, 301 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 8: positioned for maybe further conflict, but not panic. 302 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 5: Kathy. The next FED meeting, I mean it's going to 303 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 5: be upon us very soon in fifteen days, right, they 304 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 5: kick off that March meeting March seventeenth, eighteenth. If President 305 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 5: what President Trump is saying is true this attack against 306 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 5: Iran could be going on well through the FED meeting. 307 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 5: With oil rising the way it is and inflationary pressure 308 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 5: is now full throttle, what does the FED do? Might 309 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 5: we see a preemptive move to hike interest rates at 310 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 5: this March meeting? 311 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 8: This seems unlikely to me. I think this FED is 312 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 8: very deliberative right now, has been on sort of indicating 313 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 8: a wants to be on hold for a while. And 314 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 8: when you get a conflict like this, they tend to 315 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 8: look through, say this buike and oil prices and say, well, 316 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 8: is this going to be a temporary phenomenon that yes, 317 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 8: lifts prices, pushes the inflation index up, but also maybe 318 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 8: slows the economy in ways that hurt demand. And so 319 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 8: I think, from an economists point of view, and from 320 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 8: the Fed's point of view, probably just a cautious weight 321 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 8: and see is the more likely outcome. They have to 322 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 8: assess whether financial conditions are really going to tighten as 323 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 8: a result of the conflict in the Middle East. And 324 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 8: I think it's early days. I don't know if they'll 325 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,160 Speaker 8: know in the next fifteen days or so if that's 326 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 8: going to be the case, But for right now, there's 327 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 8: enough calm in the markets, I think for the FED 328 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 8: to hold steady. 329 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 4: Now. 330 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 5: The last time we spoke Kathy, we talked a bit 331 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 5: about the deterioration and in private credit markets which has continued. 332 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 5: Is there concern here that this is becoming more widespread, 333 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 5: that this is now becoming an issue we just cannot 334 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 5: turn a blind eye to. 335 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think so. You know, something we've been talking 336 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 8: about for quite some time. Our concern is that the 337 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 8: credit quality, the underwriting quality had deteriorated, and you know, 338 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 8: in private credit you get lack of transparency and ill liquidity, 339 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 8: And so our concern is not so much that it 340 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 8: fills over into the public markets in a credit quality way, 341 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 8: because they're still seeing pretty good credit quality throughout investment 342 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 8: grade and high yield. What we're worried about is sort 343 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 8: of the spillover effect from the search for liquidity. So 344 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 8: you know, in an investor can't get out of something 345 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 8: that isn't doing well, they may sell something else that 346 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 8: they can get out of that does provide liquidity. So 347 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 8: kind of keeping an eye on now seeing credit spreads 348 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 8: widen a bit, but so far it's it's fairly well contained. 349 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,879 Speaker 2: One of the great announcements here after a sterling career, 350 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 2: is it Kathy Jones will step aside at Charles Schwab. 351 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,399 Speaker 2: Is the retirement well deserved? I could ask her about 352 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 2: the concert piano tour she's going on here in the 353 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 2: next six months. Kathy, what's the number one thing across 354 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 2: the span of your career at Schwab the clients get 355 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 2: wrong about capturing yield and hopefully total return. What's the 356 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 2: biggest thing we screw up? 357 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,680 Speaker 8: Well, I think it's a tendency to just look at 358 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 8: the yield and not look at everything that contributes to 359 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 8: the yield and look at total return. It's easy to go, 360 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 8: you know, Schwab has this wonderful website you can go on. 361 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 8: You can pick out a bond and you can search 362 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 8: by yield and there's a whole a lot of other 363 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 8: factors that you need to take into consideration in order 364 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 8: to get a good total return. And so the one 365 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 8: thing is like dig a little deeper, take your time, 366 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:58,719 Speaker 8: get some advice if you need it. 367 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 9: That would be my That. 368 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 8: Would be my advice to investors in fixed income. 369 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 2: Kathy Jentes, thank you so much. With Charles Schwad, stay 370 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:13,120 Speaker 2: with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 371 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live 372 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,159 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 373 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 374 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: or watch US Live on YouTube. 375 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 5: Earlier, we heard for the first time from a senior 376 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:40,479 Speaker 5: US officials since the US war with Iran was launched 377 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 5: over the weekend, and Chairman of a Joint chiefs of Staff, 378 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 5: Dan Kane said the US is now sending more troops 379 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 5: to the Middle East to support its operation in Iran 380 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,159 Speaker 5: as the conflict there widens. We want to bring in 381 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 5: Ethan Brauner now he is the Israel bureau chief for 382 00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 5: Bloomberg News in Tel Aviv, joining us remotely, and Ethan, 383 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 5: I just can you paint a picture for us? What 384 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 5: are things like from your perspective there in Tel Aviv? 385 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 9: Well, good morning too. Well, they're pretty complicated. People are 386 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 9: running in and out of bombshelters much of the day 387 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 9: and night here. But at the same time, there is 388 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 9: a great sense of hope and optimism that with the 389 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 9: United States joining Israel, that the Islamic Republic could actually 390 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 9: be defeated and that there could be a different society, 391 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 9: different government. 392 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 1: There. 393 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 9: Don't forget for Israeli's Iran is endemy because Iran declares 394 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 9: that Israel shouldn't exist. It has armed and funded militias 395 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 9: around the region to attack it, and it has even 396 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 9: set up a clock inside of Tehran declaring when the 397 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 9: Jewish state will disappear. So it's a pretty big deal 398 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 9: to have this the United States, and you know, to 399 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 9: have the President Trump and Hegseth and all these people 400 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 9: sort of talking about ongoing future battle. So I think 401 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,359 Speaker 9: that people are willing to put up with it. But 402 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 9: it is People have been killed here and people have 403 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 9: been harmed as well, So it's a tough situation all 404 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 9: around Ethan. 405 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 10: I can only imagine the feel on the ground. What 406 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 10: exactly are the Israeli people hoping to see from Prime 407 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 10: Minister net Yahoo. 408 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,400 Speaker 9: Well, I think they you know, Prime Minister of Stanna's 409 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,399 Speaker 9: relationship with this country is long and complicated. People were 410 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 9: very upset on October seventh and twenty twenty three that 411 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,400 Speaker 9: the failure of the government security services to protect them. 412 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 9: He has been trying to reverse that view and to 413 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 9: say that actually what happened on that day will be 414 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 9: the beginning of a renewal of israel strength. He did 415 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:52,439 Speaker 9: defeat Haballah, the Assyrian regime under Osat has fallen and 416 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 9: so on, and Hamas has been pushed back. So in 417 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 9: many ways, I think they feel that he is making 418 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 9: good on that. We'll see now this is the ultimate 419 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 9: battle against Iran. He is feeling, I think, pretty triumphant 420 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 9: at the moment, and he does have an election coming 421 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 9: up within the next six months or so. If this 422 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,680 Speaker 9: goes well, I think there's a reasonable guest that he 423 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 9: will not lose the next election. 424 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 5: And earlier, I'm sure you heard that press conference with 425 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 5: the Defense Secretary who said this is not a raq, 426 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 5: this is not endless. Wouldn't put a time frame, of course, 427 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 5: on any sort of an exit strategy, but talk to 428 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 5: us about what Israel is doing right now, because I 429 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 5: know they began a new broad strike really in the 430 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 5: heart of Tehran a few hours ago. 431 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 9: Israel has been sending hundreds of sorties over Iran. I mean, 432 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,160 Speaker 9: for Israel, this is kind of an opportunity that they 433 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 9: don't want to miss to get all of various IRGC, 434 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 9: the Revolutionary Guard, the intelligence of the Iranians the military structure, 435 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 9: whatever they can, it's the ballistic missile system whenever they 436 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 9: whatever they kind about production of missiles and whatever they 437 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 9: count about nuclear weapons technology. So as long as the 438 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,120 Speaker 9: US is standing by its side, Israel is doing everything 439 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 9: it can to push back the capacity of of the 440 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 9: Islamic Republic to have any kind of military uh, you know, 441 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 9: quality to it. And yes, this this is certainly as 442 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 9: long as the US is helping and standing by Israel 443 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 9: is full force in this battle. 444 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 10: Absolutely Ethan, what have on the ground resources look like 445 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 10: for the Israeli people? How is the government perhaps supporting 446 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 10: its constituents during this time? 447 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:42,880 Speaker 4: You know, there's. 448 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 9: There is constant sirens and the the the idea of 449 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 9: spokesman is give several press conferences a day and talks 450 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 9: to people about the need to go into their safer 451 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 9: rooms and into bomb shelters. Uh. There is extra money 452 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 9: being spent on Brint calling up reservists. They've called up 453 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 9: about seventy to one hundred thousand reservists right now. Of course, 454 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 9: businesses that aren't functioning are getting support. 455 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 4: Since Saturday, everything. 456 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,680 Speaker 9: Is closed, schools, businesses for the moment through Wednesday night, 457 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,359 Speaker 9: and people except for essential services, are asked not to 458 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 9: be running around much. And I think for the moment 459 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 9: there is patience with this. It's just been a few days, right, 460 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 9: so imagine if it's a few weeks and more people 461 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 9: get killed, it's hard to know what the impact will be. 462 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 5: Well, we're going to be continuing to check in with you. 463 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 5: Ethan Brawner, Israel Bureau chief for Bloomberg News, joining us 464 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 5: live from Tel Aviv. Please stay safe and thank you 465 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 5: for that perspective this morning. 466 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:49,919 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 467 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 468 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,919 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 469 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 470 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,439 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 471 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:07,360 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.